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FEWS NET
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
Global Weather Hazards Summary
August 29 - September 4, 2014
Rainfall expected to alleviate some dryness in Central America and Haiti
Africa Weather Hazards
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Seasonally Dry
2
1.Below-average
rains during the Belg
season and a late onset
of the Kiremt rains have led
to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed
planting and hurt the development of already-planted
crops over the Arsi and West Arsi areas of central
Ethiopia.
4
3
1
2. Despite an increase in rainfall over the past few weeks,
moisture deficits have persisted in northwestern Senegal.
The delayed onset of the season since July has already
affected crops.
3. Heavy rains during the past few weeks have destroyed
houses and flooded producing areas in many parts of Darfur
in Sudan. The moderate to heavy rains forecast during the
next week are likely to cause additional flooding.
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
4. Heavy downpours during the past few weeks have caused
flooding, infrastructure damage, injuries, and displacements of
people across the Khartoum, River Nile, and Al Gazeira States of
Sudan. Potential for flooding remains high as heavy rains are forecast to continue upstream over the Ethiopian highland.
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for
International Development or the United States Government.The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by
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concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected], [email protected], or 1-301-683-3424.
Weather Hazards Summary
August 29 - September 4, 2014
Latin America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards
1. The passage of a tropical disturbance
(presently Tropical Storm Cristobal) triggered
heavy rainfall, which has led to localized
flooding, infrastructure damage, displaced
populations, and fatalities in Haiti and the
Dominican Republic during the last week.
However, increased rainfall has helped
2
to mitigate long-term seasonal dryness
throughout south and eastern Hispaniola.
Seasonable rainfall is expected during the next week.
1
1
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
No Hazards3
Posted for
Central America
2. Since late June, poor rainfall across central Guatemala, southern
Honduras, El Salvador, and western Nicaragua is likely to hurt Primera
crop development.
3. Extended dry spells and below-average rains since March have led to
substantial seasonal rainfall deficits and poor ground conditions in southeastern
Honduras, west-central Nicaragua, and parts of northern Costa Rica. Poorly distributed
Primera rainfall and acute dryness during mid-June have also caused crop failure in eastern
El Salvador, southern Honduras, and eastern Guatemala.
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
Central Asia Weather Hazards
1. Below-normal precipitation since May has resulted
in drought conditions across parts of northwest
Kazakhstan, where dry weather persisted for the
second consecutive week.
2. Poorly distributed rainfall since May has led to
growing moisture deficits and low soil moisture in
southeastern Kazakhstan.
3. Abnormal heat is expected in the western third
of Kazakhstan early this week, with maximum
temperatures forecast to exceed 36°C. A cold front
is expected to bring relief from abnormally high
temperatures by the end of August.
1
3
2
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Temperatures
Temperatures averaged up to 10°C above-normal
across Kazakhstan from August 17-23, but were closer
to normal across the rest of Central Asia. Abnormal
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
heat is expected in the western third of Kazakhstan
early this week, when maximum temperatures are
forecast to exceed 36°C. A cold front is expected to bring much cooler temperatures to Kazakhstan by the end of August.
Precipitation
Dry weather persisted for the second consecutive week in northwest Kazakhstan, where drought conditions are the result of
below-normal precipitation since May. Meanwhile, locally heavy rainfall (up to 97 mm) fell in northern Pakistan. During the next
week, little or no precipitation is expected across Central Asia. The aforementioned cold front is likely to bring locally heavy rain
(more than 25 mm) to northern Kazakhstan.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
2
Weather Hazards Summary
hanced rains have persisted in West Africa.
Africa
hanced rains have persisted in West Africa.
lowing copious amounts of rain during the prior week, West Africa
Above-average
rains persist
in Africa.
West Africa
nhanced rains
have persisted
in West
eived another
of heavy
rains.
While
heaviest
(> 200Africa
mm)
lowing
copiousweek
amounts
of rain
during
thethe
prior
week, West
nfall
was
observed
in
southern
Senegal,
a
robust
rainfall
eived another
week
of
heavy
rains.
While
the
heaviest
200Africa
mm)
Following
above-average
rainfall
last
week,
West(>
Africa
llowing
copious
amounts
of rain
during
the
prior
week,
West
tribution,
encompassing
much
of of
West
Africa
was
recorded
during
nfall
was
observed
in
southern
Senegal,
a
robust
rainfall
received
another
week
heavy
rains,
with
the
highest
ceived another week of heavy rains. While the heaviest (> 200 mm)
past week (Figure 1). much
The rain
belt pushed
as far
north as
the
tribution,
West
Africa
was
during
amounts
(>200
inofsouthern
Senegal
(Figure
1). The
rain
nfall wasencompassing
observed
in mm)
southern
Senegal,
a recorded
robust
rainfall
uthern
half of(Figure
Mauritania,
which
reduced
thirty-day
rainfall
deficits
past
week
1).
The
rain
belt
pushed
as
far
north
as
the
belt pushed north
intoofthe
southern
of Mauritania,
which
stribution, encompassing
much
West
Africahalf
was
recorded during
ther and
replenished
soilwhich
moisture
in the
region.rainfall
Moderate
to
uthern
Mauritania,
thirty-day
further
reduced
30-day
rainfall
deficits
and
replenished
e
past half
weekof
(Figure
1). The
rainreduced
belt pushed
as far
northdeficits
assoil
the
ally heavy
rains also fell
inmoisture
northerninSenegal,
helping
to erode
ther
and
replenished
soil
the
region.
Moderate
to
uthern half moisture
of Mauritania,
which Moderate
reduced thirty-day
rainfall
deficits
in the region.
to locally
heavy
also
gative
anomalies
associated
with the delayed
onset
of rains
the
rainy
ally
rains also
fell
inmoisture
northern
helping
to erode
ther heavy
and replenished
soil
inSenegal,
the
region.
Moderate
to
fell
in
northern
Senegal,
helping
to
erode
rainfall
deficits
ason
during
July. Farther east,
moderate
to onset
heavy ofrains
were
gativeheavy
anomalies
with
the delayed
the
rainy
cally
rains associated
also
fell
indelayed
northern
Senegal,
helping
toin erode
resulting
from
the
onset
of
the
rainy
season
July.
gistered
over July.
Nigeria,
resulting
in flooding and
severalrains
displaced
ason
Farther
east,
to heavy
were
gativeduring
anomalies
associated
withmoderate
theover
delayed
onset
of in
theflooding
rainy
Moderate
to heavy rains
fell
Nigeria,
resulting
ople over
the
Gwagwalada
locality
of the
central
parts
of the
gistered
over
Nigeria,
resulting
in
flooding
and
several
displaced
ason duringand
July.
Farther
east, moderate
to heavy
rains were
displaced
populations
in
central
parts
of
the
country.
untry.
In thethe
north
east parts of
Nigeria,
rains
continued,
ople over
Gwagwalada
locality
of moderate
theand
central
parts
of the
gistered
over
Nigeria,
resulting
in flooding
several
displaced
Moderate
rains
continued
in northeast
Nigeria,
which
turned
ich contributed
to east
turn
moisture
deficits
into surpluses
over
some
untry.
In
the
north
parts
of
Nigeria,
moderate
rains
continued,
ople over the
Gwagwalada
locality
of inthe
central
parts of the
moisture
deficits
into
surpluses
some
areas.
al areas.
ich
contributed
to
turn
moisture
deficits
into
surpluses
over
some
untry. In the north east parts of Nigeria, moderate rains continued,
al areas.
hich
contributed toofturn
moisture
deficits into surpluses
over
some
Africa received
rainfall
during
analysis ofMuch
rainfallWest
anomalies
during above-average
the second dekad
(10-day
cal areas. the second 10-day period of August. Rainfall surpluses
riod)
of August
has anomalies
shown above-average
rains across
of
analysis
of rainfall
during the second
dekad much
(10-day
between
50-100
mm
were
observed
in
southern
Mauritania,
est
Africa.
Rainfall
surpluses
ranging
between
50-100
mm
were
riod)
of August
has shown
above-average
rains across
much
of
analysis
ofnortheastern
rainfall
anomalies
duringCote
thed’Ivoire,
second
dekadNigeria,
(10-day
Mali, northern
eastern
served
in southern
Mauritania,
northeastern
Mali,
northern
Cote
est
Africa.
Rainfall
surpluses
ranging
between
50-100
mm
were
riod) of August
has shown
above-average
rains across
of
andNigeria,
eastern
Chad
(Figure
2).Chad
These(Figure
surpluses
areThe
themuch
result
voire,
eastern
and eastern
2).northern
positive
served
in southern
Mauritania,
northeastern
Mali,
Cote
est Africa.
Rainfall
surpluses
ranging
between
50-100
mm
were
of the
Inter-Tropical
Front
pushing
farther
northward
than is
nfall anomalies
have
resulted
from
an(Figure
anomalous
northward
voire,
Nigeria,
and
eastern
Chad
The
positive
servedeastern
in southern
Mauritania,
northeastern
Mali,2).
northern
and
more
frequent
rainfall
inanomalous
central
portions
of Cote
West
sition anomalies
of the normal
Inter-tropical
Front
and
more
frequent
rains
across
the
nfall
have
resulted
from
an
northward
voire, eastern Nigeria, and eastern Chad (Figure 2). The positive
Africa.
The recent
increase
in rainfall
has reduced
rainfallhas
ntral
portions
of West
Africa.
The
recent
increase
in rainfall
sition
of
the
Inter-tropical
Front
and
more
frequent
rains
across
the
nfall anomalies have resulted from an anomalous northward
ped reduce deficits
accumulated
deficits soil
andmoisture
replenish
soil
moisture
over
and replenished
over
many
local areas.
ntral
of West
Africa.
increase
in
rainfall
sitionportions
of the Inter-tropical
FrontThe
and recent
more frequent
rains
acrosshas
the
ny local
areas.
ped
reduce
accumulated
deficits
and
replenish
soil
moisture
over
ntral portions
of
West
Africa.
The
recent
increase
in
rainfall
has
For the next week, torrential rains are forecast over
ny local
areas.
lped
reduce
accumulated deficits and replenish soil moisture over
Senegal,
Leone,
and
r next week,southern
torrential
rains Guinea-Bissau,
are forecast Guinea,
over farSierra
western
Africa,
any local areas.
southern
Mali.
Moderate
to
heavy
rains
are
also
expected
luding
southern
Senegal,
Guinea
Bissau,
Guinea
Conakry,
Sierra
r next week, torrential rains are forecast over far western Africa,
one,
and southern
Mali. In
Moderate
to
heavy
rains
are alsoacross
expected
over Nigeria.
contrast,
light
rainsGuinea
are expected
the
luding
Senegal,
Guinea
Bissau,
r next southern
week, torrential
rains
are forecast
over farConakry,
western Sierra
Africa,
er
Nigeria.
In contrast,
light
suppressed
rains
are
northern
parts
of thetoSahel,
including
northern
Senegal,
one,
and
southern
Mali.
Moderate
to
heavy
rains
are
also
expected
cluding southern Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Guinea Conakry, Sierra
ossNigeria.
the northern
partssouthern
of the
Sahel. These
includeNiger.
northern
western
Mali,
andrains
western
er
In contrast,
light
to Mauritania,
suppressed
one,
and southern
Mali.
Moderate
to heavy rains
are are
also expected
expected
negal,
western
Mali,parts
southern
Mauritania,
and
western
Niger.
oss
the
northern
of
the
Sahel.
These
include
northern
er Nigeria. In contrast, light to suppressed rains are expected
negal,
western
Mali,reduced
southern
Mauritania,
and
western
Niger.
Slightly
rains
observed
Sudan
ross the
northern
parts
of
the
Sahel. in
These
include
northern
August 29 - September 4, 2014
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm)
Valid:
August
20 – August
2014
Satellite
Estimated
Rainfall26,
(mm)
Valid: August 20 – August 26, 2014
Satellite Estimated
(mm)
Figure 1: Satellite-Estimated
Rainfall Rainfall
(mm)
Valid:
Valid: August 20-26,
2014August 20 – August 26, 2014
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
Satellite Estimated Rainfall Anomaly Source:
(mm) NOAA/CPC
Figure 1: Valid:
NOAA/CPC
August Rainfall
11
– August
20,
2014
Estimated
Rainfall
Anomaly
(mm)
Figure 2:Satellite
Satellite-Estimated
Anomaly
(mm)
Valid:
August 11 – August 20, 2014
Valid: August 11-20,
2014
Satellite Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
Valid: August 11 – August 20, 2014
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
negal, western Mali, southern Mauritania, and western Niger.
During the past week, rainfall over parts of south-central
Source: NOAA/CPC
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
ghtly reduced
rains
Sudan.
Sudan
wasobserved
lighter thanin
during
the prior week. However,
Satellite Estimated
Rainfall
Figure 3. Satellite-Estimated
Rainfall
(mm) Percentile
Figure
2: Valid:
NOAA/CPC
ghtly reduced
rains
Sudan.
heavy
rainsobserved
continued in
over
Darfur in the western parts of the Valid:
20 –Rainfall
AugustPercentile
26, 2014
July 30 -Satellite
August 5,August
2014
Estimated
ring the pastcountry,
week, resulting
a reduction
in
rainfall
was
observed
over
parts
in
floods
and
the
destruction
of
houses.
Valid:
August
20
–
August
26,
2014
ghtly reduced rains observed in Sudan.
Satellite Estimated Rainfall Percentile
south-central
Sudan
relative
that
during
the
prior
ring
the pastModerate
week,
ato
reduction
intorainfall
observed
over
parts
heavy
rains
also
fell was
in eastern
Sudan
andweek.
Valid: August 20 – August 26, 2014
wever,
heavy
rains
continued
over
the
Darfur
in the
parts
south-central
Sudan
relative
to3).
that
during
the western
prior
week.
western
Ethiopia
(Figure
Although
rains
uring
the past
week,
a reduction
in
rainfall
wasabove-average
observed
over
parts
the country,
which
resulted
inoffloods,
destroyed
shelters,
and
wever,
heavy
rains
continued
over
the
Darfur
in the
parts
have
fallen
over
much
Africa
during
thewestern
past
days,
south-central
Sudan
relative
toEast
that
during
the
prior30 week.
ected
people.
Moderate
to
heavy
rains
were
also
received
in
the
country,
which
resulted
in
floods,
destroyed
shelters,
and
rainfall
have remained
localized
of southowever, heavy
rainsdeficits
continued
over the over
Darfur
in theareas
western
parts
stern Sudan
and
western
Ethiopia
(Figure
3).
Although
positive
ected
people.
Moderate
to
heavy
rains
were
also
received
in
central
Ethiopia
and western
South
Sudan. During
the next
the country,
which
resulted
in floods,
destroyed
shelters,
and
nfall anomalies
have
been
observed
over much
of Eastern
Africa
stern
and
western
Ethiopia
(Figure
3).Sudan,
Although
positive
week,
reduced
rains
are expected
the
ected Sudan
people.
Moderate
to
heavy
rains over
were
alsoexcept
received
in
ring anomalies
the past thirty
days,
rainfall deficits
haveof remained
over
nfall
have
been
observed
overare
much
Eastern
Africa
region,
where
heavy (Figure
rains
forecast
to trigger
new
stern SudanDarfur
and
western
Ethiopia
3). Although
positive
alizedthe
areas
ofthirty
south-central
Ethiopia
and western
South Sudan.
ring
past
days,
rainfall
have
over
flooding.
South
Sudan,deficits
there
an
increased
chance
nfall anomalies
haveOver
been
observed
over ismuch
ofremained
Eastern
Africa
ring
the
next
outlook
period,
reduced
rains
are
expected
over
alized
areas
of
south-central
Ethiopia
and
western
South
Sudan.
for above-average
potentially
in localizedover
ring the past
thirty days, rains,
rainfall
deficits resulting
have remained
dan,
except
the
Darfurperiod,
region,reduced
where the
forecast
heavy rains
ring
the
next
outlook
rains
are
expected
over
calized areas
of south-central
western
South
Sudan.
flooding.
Meanwhile,Ethiopia
seasonal,and
moderate
to heavy
rains
are
uld
conditions
on the where
ground the
andforecast
trigger new
flooding.
dan,exacerbate
except
the
Darfurperiod,
region,
heavy
rains
uring
the next
outlook
reduced
rains are
expected
over
expected
to
continue
in
western
Ethiopia,
which
are
likely
to
er South
Sudan,
there is an
chance
for above-average
uld
exacerbate
conditions
on increased
the ground
and forecast
trigger
new
flooding.
dan,
exceptincrease
the
Darfur
region,
where
the
heavy
rains
downstream
river
levels
even
further,
thus
elevating
ns,
potentially
resulting
flooding,
particularly
over flooder South
Sudan,
there in
is localized
an
increased
chance
for above-average
uld
exacerbate
conditions
on
the ground
new flooding.
for flooding
in eastern
Sudan.and trigger
one
areas. risks
Meanwhile,
seasonal,
moderate
to heavy over
rainsfloodare
ns,
potentially
resulting
in
localized
flooding,
particularly
ver South Sudan, there is an increased chance for above-average
pected
to continue
in western
Ethiopia,
which are
likely torains
increase
one
areas.
Meanwhile,
seasonal,
moderate
to
heavy
are
ns, potentially resulting in localized flooding, particularly over floodSource: NOAA/CPC
wnstream
river levels
further,Ethiopia,
thus elevating
risks forto floods
in
pected
to continue
in western
which are
increase
one areas.
Meanwhile,
seasonal, moderate
to likely
heavy rains
are Figure 3: NOAA/CPC
stern
Sudan.
wnstream
river levels
further,Ethiopia,
thus elevating
risks
fortofloods
in
Figure 3: NOAA/CPC
pected to continue
in western
which are
likely
increase
stern
Sudan.
ote:
The
hazards
outlook
map
on
page
1
is
based
on
current
weather/climate
information
and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1
wnstream river levels further, thus elevating risks for floods in
Figure 3:areNOAA/CPC
eek).
It
assesses
their
potential
impact
on
crop
and
pasture
conditions.
Shaded
polygons
added
in medium
areas where
conditions
stern
Sudan.
ote: The hazards
outlook
on pageSystems
1 is basedNetwork
on current weather/climate information and short
and
rangeanomalous
weather forecasts
(uphave
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Famine
Earlymap
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een
The
boundaries
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approximate
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This
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onpolygons
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Shaded
are added
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wheredoes
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conditions
have
easonal
forecasts
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food weather/climate
security
conditions.
ote:observed.
Theclimate
hazards
outlook
map
onofpage
1 is
based
onare
current
and short
medium
range
weather
forecasts
to 1
een
The
boundaries
these
polygons
only
approximate
at information
this continental
scale.and
This
product
does
not reflect
long(up
range
eek). It climate
assesses
their potential
impact
on crop
and pasture
Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have
easonal
forecasts
or indicate
current
or projected
food conditions.
security conditions.
uestions
or comments
this productofmay
be directed
to [email protected]
or 1-301-683-3424.
een observed.
Theabout
boundaries
these
polygons
are only approximate
at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range
3
America. Weekly rainfall accumulations in excess of 75mm are forecast over much of southern Guatem
Costa Rica, with the potential for locally heavier amounts for many coastal departments. Increased rai
many anomalously dry areas, particularly in the Gulf of Fonseca region.
Weather Hazards Summary
August 29 - September 4, 2014
Latin America and the Caribbean
Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm)
August 27 – September 3, 2014
Below-average rains return to many parts of Guatemala, Honduras, and western Nicaragua
During the last week, below-average fell throughout northern
Central America, with more seasonable amounts observed
over southern Guatemala, southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica,
and Panama. The reduction in this past week followed two
weeks of heavier, seasonal rainfall that helped low soil
moisture during the beginning/middle of August. The return
of below-average rainfall during the end of August is expected
to sustain longer-term moisture deficits resulting from poor
rainfall from May to July. Local rain gauges and satelliteestimated rainfall still show large deficits (10-50 percent of
normal rainfall) that have persisted since the beginning of
May across the Pacific side of Central America. Much of this
dryness has resulted in failed and wilted Primera crops in
many areas.
During the next week, rainfall is expected to increase
significantly over the Pacific side of Central America. Weekly
rainfall in excess of 75 mm is forecast over much of southern
Guatemala, El Salvador, western Nicaragua, and Costa Rica,
with the potential for locally heavier amounts for many
coastal areas. Increased rains are expected to alleviate
abnormal dryness in many areas, particularly in the Gulf of
Fonseca region.
Figure
1:in Source
Seasonable rainfall
expected
HispaniolaNOAA
this week/
Figure 1: Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm)
Valid: August 27 - September 3, 2014
Source: NOAA/CPC
CPC
During the last week, the passage of a tropical disturbance (currently classified as Tropical Storm Cristobal) over northeastern
Hispaniola brought heavy rains that caused flash flooding, displacements of people, damage to infrastructure, and fatalities in
several areas of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. In Haiti, localized flooding and excess runoff were reported in St. Marc, Portde-Paix, and Ouanaminthe. According to satellite estimates, the increase in rainfall during August throughout Hispaniola has
greatly helped
to offset
short-term
deficitstodue
to poor seasonal rainfall
this summer. However, below-average moisture
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conditions still persist in the south. Since early May, many local areas in both Haiti and the Dominican Republic have had 50 to 80
percent of their normal rainfall, with areas of the southern coastline receiving less than 50 percent of normal rainfall. This longterm dryness is the result of a delayed start of rains and/or erratic seasonal rainfall, which is expected to negatively affect cropping
activities. Forecasts suggest a seasonable distribution of rainfall for the next week.
ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDS
Hazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and
pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at
this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
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