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FEWS NET
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
Global Weather Hazards Summary
January 16-22, 2015
Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding in southeastern Africa
Africa Weather Hazards
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Seasonally Dry
1. Although average rains
fell over the Greater Horn
of Africa in late November
and early December, the
delayed onset of the October-December rainy season,
combined with an erratic distribution of rains, has
resulted in poor ground conditions in northern Kenya
and southern Somalia.
2. Insufficient rainfall since the beginning of October has
led to dryness and delayed planting in eastern Zambia,
northern Mozambique, Malawi and southern Tanzania.
However, rainfall has improved since late December.
3. In recent weeks, heavy rain has fallen in northern
Zimbabwe and western and central Mozambique. In
southern Malawi, these rains have resulted in widespread
flooding, extensive damange to crops, livestock, and
infrastructure, thousands of displaced people, and fatalities. It
has also elevated the risk for downstream river flooding along
the Shire, Licungo, Zambezi, Mazoe, Pungue, and Save Rivers.
1
2
3
4
5
6
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
4. A tropical low situated in the Mozambique Channel may intensify
into a cyclone during the next week. Heavy rainfall and high winds are forecast, which may trigger flooding in coastal and
interior areas of Madagascar that have already received above-average rainfall.
5. While western Madagascar has recently received an increase in rainfall, large seasonal moisture deficits and unfavorable
ground conditions remain in Toliara Province. Below-average rainfall is expected during the next week.
6. While much of South Africa has received adequate rains since the beginning of the Southern African monsoon, the eastern
parts of the country have received below-average rainfall, affecting agricultural conditions. Below-average rainfall forecast
during next week are expected to worsen ground conditions.
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for
International Development or the United States Government.The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by
FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries
concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected], [email protected], or 1-301-683-3424.
rd
arts of southeastern Africa receive 3
ove-average rainfall.
Weather Hazards Summary
consecutive
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm)
Valid: January 4 – January 10, 2015
January 16-22, 2015
last seven Africa
days, Overview
an enhancement of seasonal
rainfall was
rd
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm)
arts of southeastern
Africa receive 3 consecutive
or the 3rd consecutive week across parts of southeastern
Valid:
January 4 – January 10, 2015
ove-averagethe
rainfall.
Figure 1: Satellite-Estimated Rainfall (mm)
ompared to
previous
the coreAfrica
of the heaviest
Heavy rains
continueweek,
in southeastern
Valid: January 4-10, 2015
amounts has shifted eastward into Malawi, northern
last
seven
days,
an
enhancement
of
seasonal
rainfall
was
During
the lastand
week,western
seasonal Madagascar
rainfall increasedwith
for the
third consecutive
e, southern
Tanzania,
weekly
week
across
parts
southeastern
ornsthe
3rd consecutive
weekwell
across
parts
of southeastern
Africa.
Since
the previous
week, the
exceeding
over
100mm
(Figure
1).of
Further
south,
rd
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm)
Several
parts ofrainfall
southeastern
Africa
3 consecutive
ompared
to
the
previous
week,
the core
of receive
the
heaviest
core
of the
heaviest
shifted
eastward
into
Malawi,
northern
rains (<25mm)
were
received
across
much
of
Namibia,
Valid: January 4 – January 10, 2015
week of above-average rainfall.
nngola,
amounts
has shifted
eastward
into
Malawi,
northern
Mozambique,
southern
Tanzania,
and western
Madagascar,
with weekly
Botswana,
Zimbabwe,
and southern
Mozambique.
accumulations
exceeding
100
mm
(Figure
1).
Further
south,
below-average
e,
southern
Tanzania,
and
western
Madagascar
with
weekly
During
the
last
seven
days,
an
enhancement
of
seasonal
rainfall
was
we, the recent reduction rains
is expected to provide relief to
rd
rains
(<25
mm)
fell
across
much
of
Namibia,
southern
Angola,
Botswana,
consecutive
week
across
parts
of
southeastern
ns
exceeding
well
over
100mm
(Figure
1).
Further
south,
observed
for
the
3
onditions associated
with veryto heavy,
floodweek,
inducing
rainfall
Africa.were
Compared
theacross
previousmuch
the
of the
heaviest
Zimbabwe,
and
southern
For Zimbabwe,
the
recent
reduction
rains (<25mm)
receivedMozambique.
of core
Namibia,
ecember.
precipitation
amounts
has
shifted
eastward
into
Malawi,
northern
in rainfall isZimbabwe,
expected to provide
relief to saturated
ground conditions
ngola, Botswana,
and
southern
Mozambique.
Mozambique, southern Tanzania, and western Madagascar with weekly
following
very heavy,
flood-inducing
since
late
we,
the
recent
reduction
rains
is
expected
to provide
relief
to south,
accumulations
exceeding
well over rainfall
100mm
(Figure
1).December.
Further
estimated
rainfall
indicates
a significant
nalysis of satellite
suppressed
rains
(<25mm)
were
received
across
much
of
Namibia,
onditions
associated
with conditions
very heavy,since
flood inducing
rainfall
anomalous
moisture
middle
of
southern
Angola,
Botswana, above-average
Zimbabwe, the
andrainfall
southern
Mozambique.
Since
the
middle
of
December,
have
reversed
ecember.
For Zimbabwe,
the recent
reduction rains is expected
to provide
Several consecutive
weeks
of above-average
rainfall
over relief to
drought-like conditions in parts of eastern Zambia, Malawi, and
saturated conditions associated with very heavy, flood inducing rainfall
n Africa have
both mitigated
droughtneutralizing
like conditions
parts deficits
Mozambique,
while completely
seasonalinmoisture
since lateestimated
December.
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
rainfall
indicates
a
significant
nalysis
of
satellite
Zambia, inMalawi,
and Zimbabwe
completely
some areas and
furtherMozambique,
south. Parts of northern
and western
anomalous
moisture
conditions
since
middle
Mozambique
currently
30-day
rainfall
surpluses
exceeding
200 mm
estimated
rainfall
indicates
aofsignificant
Tendency
analysis
ofhave
satellite
seasonal
moisture
deficits
for
several
areasthe
further
south.
Satellite Estimated 30-Day Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
Several
consecutive
weeks
of
above-average
rainfall
over
reversal
of
anomalous
moisture
conditions
since
the
middle
of
(Figure 2). and
Whilewestern
this rainfallMozambique
has relieved abnormal
dryness, it
has also
rthern Zimbabwe
are currently
Source: NOAA/CPC
Valid: December 12, 2014 – January
10, 2015
December.
Several consecutive
weeks
of above-average
rainfall over
n
Africa
have
both
mitigated
drought
like
conditions
in
parts
caused flooding
across parts
of northern
Zimbabwe,
Mozambique,
and
g rainfall surpluses
exceeding
200mm
over
the
last
30
days
FigureFigure
1:Figure
NOAA/CPC
2: Satellite-Estimated 30-Day Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
southeastern Africa have both mitigated drought like conditions in parts
1:
NOAA/CPC
Zambia,
Malawi,
and
Mozambique,
and
completely
Malawi.
In southern
Malawi,
these
rainsrelieved
have caused
widespread
flooding, Valid: December 12, 2014 - January 10, 2015
of eastern
Zambia,
Malawi,
and
Mozambique,
and of
completely
While excess
rains
and
moisture
have
much
seasonal
moisture
deficits
for
several
areas
further
south.
extensive
damage
to
crops,
livestock,
and
infrastructure,
and
displacements
neutralized
seasonal
moisture
deficits
for
several
areas
further
south.
seasonal dryness, it has also led to several flooding events
Satellite Estimated 30-Day Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
Parts ofand
northern
Zimbabwe
and western
Mozambique
are magnitude
currently ofSatellite Estimated 30-Day Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
of
ofZimbabwe,
people,
andMozambique
fatalities.
Given the
location
and
rthern
Zimbabwe
western
are
currently
Valid:
December 12,
12, 2014
– January
10, 2015
ross
parts
of thousands
northern
Mozambique
and
Malawi.
Valid:
December
2014
– January
10, 2015
rainfallsurpluses,
surplusesthere
exceeding
200mm
over
the
30 days
theexperiencing
30-day exceeding
moisture
is anthe
increased
risk
forlast
downstream
gMalawi,
rainfall surpluses
200mm
over
last
30
days
these
rains
in and
widespread
flooding,
(Figure
2). have
While resulted
excess rains
moisture have
relieved much of
river
flooding
along
Shire, Licungo,
Zambezi,
Mazoe,
Pungue,
and Save
While to
excess
rains
and the
moisture
relieved
much
of events
anomalous
seasonal
dryness,
ithave
has also
ledthousands
to several
flooding
amage
crops,
livestock
and
infrastructure,
of
Rivers.
Theitacross
Zambezi
River
has
reportedly
been
increasing
above
alert level
reported
parts
of
northern
Zimbabwe,
Mozambique
and Malawi.
seasonal
dryness,
has
also
led
to
several
flooding
events
eople, and in
fatalities.
Given
thethese
location
andresulted
magnitude
of the flooding,
In southern
Malawi,
rains have
in widespread
several
areas
of Mozambique.
ross
parts
of
northern
Zimbabwe,
Mozambique
and
Malawi.
sture surpluses,
there
is antoincreased
riskand
forinfrastructure,
downstream
extensive
damage
crops, livestock
thousands of
Malawi,
these
rains
have
resulted
inGiven
widespread
flooding,
displaced
people,
and
fatalities.
the
location and
magnitude of the
ation
along
the
Shire,
Licungo,
Zambezi,
Mazoe,
Pungue,
In contrast
to wetter
than usual
conditions
across southeastern
30-daylivestock
moisture
surpluses,
there
is an increased
risk for downstream
amage
crops,
and
infrastructure,
thousands
of Africa,
ivers in to
themid-seasonal
region.
The
Zambezi
has reportedly
been
dryness
continues
to develop
across
many
parts Pungue,
of southern
river inundation
along
the River
Shire,
Licungo,
Zambezi,
Mazoe,
eople,
and fatalities.
Given
the
location
and
magnitude
of the been
bove alert
level
several
in
Mozambique.
and for
Save
RiversNamibia,
inlocations
the region.
TheCaprivi
Zambezi
River
has reportedly
Angola,
northern
and the
Strip.
Short-term
moisture
sture surpluses,
thereabove
is strengthened
an
for downstream
increasing
alertincreased
level for several
locations
Mozambique.
deficits
have
both
andrisk
expanded
ininsouthern
Angola, where
ation
along
the
Shire,
Licungo,
Zambezi,
Mazoe,
Pungue,
little rainfall haswet
beenconditions
recorded since
mid-December.
A continuation of
to the anomalously
across
southeastern
In contrast
to Zambezi
the anomalously
wet
across
southeastern
ivers in the
region.
The
RiverJanuary
hasconditions
reportedly
been
below-average
rainfallto
throughout
ismany
expected
to
negatively
impact
seasonal
dryness
develop
across
parts
of parts of
Africa,continues
mid-seasonal
dryness
continues
to develop
across
many
above
level
forpastoral
several
locations
in Mozambique.
crop
and
conditions.
Parts
ofand
southwestern
Madagascar
and Kwasouthern
Angola,
northern
Namibia,
theregion.
Caprivi Strip
region. Here,
ngola, alert
northern
Namibia,
and
the Caprivi
Strip
Here,
short
term
moisture
deficits
have
strengthened
anddry
expanded
in only
Zulu
Natahave
Region
of South
Africa
andboth
remain
abnormally
moisture deficits
both
strengthened
and
expanded
infollowing
nd
southern
Angola,
where
little
rainfall
has
been
recorded
since
the
2
nd
lightlittle
to locally moderate
rains.
to thewhere
anomalously
wet has
conditions
across
southeastern
ngola,
been
recorded
since
the
2 throughout Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
dekad ofrainfall
December.
The
continuation
of suppressed
rainfall
Source: NOAA/CPC
seasonal dryness
continues
develop
many
parts ofconditions.
is expected
negatively across
impact
crop
and
pastoral
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
ecember.
TheJanuary
continuation
oftotosuppressed
rainfall
throughout
Figure
3:
Probability
of
Total
Precipitation
During
the next
week,
heavy
rainfall isStrip
againhave
forecast
for
southeastern
Elsewhere,
little
to locally
moderate
rains
sustained
anomalously
Probability of Total Precipitation ExceedingExceeding
100mm (%)
ngola,
northern
Namibia,
and
the
Caprivi
region.
Here,
expected
to negatively
impact
crop
and
pastoral
conditions.
th
100 mmValid:
(%) Valid:
January
2015 17th, 215
dry
conditions
throughout
parts
of
the
Kwa-Zulu
Natal
region
of
South
January
1010-17,
– January
Africa. Weather
models
indicate a moderate
to
high potential
for tropical
moisture
deficits
have
both
strengthened
and
expanded
in
little to locally
moderate
have
sustained
anomalously
Probability of Total Precipitation Exceeding 100mm (%)
Africa,
as well as,rains
in over
southwestern
Madagascar.
cyclone
development
the Mozambique
Channel.
Even2ifnda tropical
th
th
ngola,
where
little
rainfall
has
been
recorded
since
the
ns throughout
parts
of
the
Kwa-Zulu
Natal
region
of
South
Valid: January 10 – January 17 , 215
cyclone
does
not
develop
in
the
region,
heavy
rainfall
remains
very
likely
2: NOAA/CPC
ecember.
TheForcontinuation
suppressed
rainfall
throughout
the upcoming of
outlook
period, heavy
rainfall
is again forecastFigure
for
ell as, in southwestern
may triggerMadagascar.
localized
flooding
in coastal
areasthe
of Mozambique
southeastern
Africa.
Weather
models
indicate
persistence ofand
an in
expected toand
negatively
impact
crop
and
pastoral
conditions.
anomalousThere
lower-level
the Mozambique
Channel.
Madagascar.
is a highcirculation
likelihoodover
for weekly
rainfall to exceed
100
little to outlook
locally
moderate
rains have
sustained
anomalously
Probability
of Total Precipitation Exceeding 100mm (%)
with
favorable
oceanic
conditions,
and
upper-level
a
coming
period,
heavy
rainfall
is
again
forecast
for winds,rains
mmCombined
in several
coastal
regions
(Figure
3).
Elsewhere,
below-average
th
th
ns
throughout
parts
of
the
Kwa-Zulu
Natal
region
of
South
moderate
to
high
potential
for tropical
cyclone
development
is expected
Valid:
January 10 – January 17 , 215
are expected
for partsindicate
of Botswana,
Zimbabwe,
and South
Africa, with the
n Africa. Weather
models
the
persistence
of
an
over the Mozambique
Channel during the next seven days. Even if a
ell
as, in southwestern
return
of more Madagascar.
seasonable
rainfall
across southernChannel.
Angola and northern
lower-level
circulation
over the
Mozambique
tropical cyclone does not develop in the region, heavy rainfall remains
Namibia.
very
likely, and
may triggerand
localized
flooding for
coastala areas in
with favorable
oceanic
conditions,
upper-level
winds,
Mozambique
and
in Madagascar.
precipitation
coming
outlook
period,
heavy
rainfall
isProbability
again of
forecast
for guidance
high potential
for
tropical
cyclone
development
is
expected
analysis
shows
a
high
likelihood
for
weekly
rains
to
exceed
100mm for
n Africa. Weather
models
indicate
the persistence
of ifan
ozambique
Channel
during
the
next seven
days. below-average
Even
a rains are
several coastal
regions
(Figure
3). Elsewhere,
lower-level
circulation
the Mozambique
Channel.
for parts
of Botswana,
Zimbabwe,
and South
Africa, with the
one
does notexpected
develop
in over
the
region,
heavy
rainfall
remains
return
of moreconditions,
seasonable rainfall
across
southern Angola,
with
favorable
oceanic
and
upper-level
winds,
a northern
and may trigger
localized flooding for coastal areas and
in
Namibia.
high
potential
for
tropical
cyclone
development
is
expected
Source: NOAA/CPC
e and in Madagascar. Probability of precipitation guidance
Figure 3: USGS/EROS
ozambique
the next
seven
days. 100mm
Even iffor
a
ows a high Channel
likelihoodduring
for weekly
rains
to exceed
oneregions
does not
develop
inElsewhere,
the
region,
remains
Note:
The3).
hazards
outlook
map below-average
onheavy
page 1 is rainfall
based onrains
current
weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1
stal
(Figure
are
week). Itlocalized
assesses their
potential impact
on
crop and areas
pasture conditions.
Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have
and
may
trigger
flooding
for
coastal
in
r parts of
Botswana,
Zimbabwe,
and ofNetwork
South
Africa,are
with
been
observed.
The boundaries
these polygons
onlythe
approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range 2
Famine
Early
Warning
Systems
ereand
in Madagascar.
Probability
of precipitation
guidance
seasonal
climate
forecasts
or indicate
current or and
projected
food security conditions.
seasonable
rainfall
across
southern
Angola,
northern
ows a high likelihood
for
weekly
rains
to
exceed
100mm
for
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected] or 1-301-683-3424.
stal regions (Figure 3). Elsewhere, below-average rains are
Figure 3: USGS/EROS
Weather Hazards Summary
January 16-22, 2015
Central Asia Weather Hazards
1. Below-average snowfall has caused abnormal
dryness in Afghanistan and Tajikistan, which may
lead to below-average soil moisture later during the
agricultural season.
Temperatures
Temperatures were above normal across Central Asia
from January 4-10, particularly in central Kazakhstan.
Maximum temperatures were above freezing,
except in extreme northern parts of Kazakhstan.
The abnormally warm temperatures for this time of
year (with maximum temperatures near 25°C across
southern Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan) resulted in a lack
of snow cover in southern parts of the region, including
Afghanistan. During the next week, the GFS model
indicates that above-normal temperatures are likely to
continue.
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
1
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
Precipitation
A winter storm brought precipitation (2-25 mm, locally
more) to much of Central Asia from January 4-10, with at least 25 mm falling from southern Kazakhstan to Tajikistan. During
the next week, little to no precipitation is forecast across Kazakhstan, while rain and high-elevation snow is expected across
Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Precipitation amounts could become locally heavy (more than 25 mm, liquid equivalent), which
improve current moisture levels.
Central America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards
No hazards are posted for Central America and
the Caribbean.
No Hazards
Posted for
Central America
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
3
Weather Hazards Summary
January 16-22, 2015
Central America and the Caribbean Overview
alongalong
Gulf ofGulf
Honduras
coastline coastlines.
ndant rainsHeavy
were rainfall
recorded
of Honduras
Duringheavy
the lastrains
week,(>50mm)
heavy rains
(>50 mm) continued
to fall
the Caribbean
coastline
of Central
America for
a second
consecutive
ng the last week,
continued
to fall along
thealong
Caribbean
coastline
of Central
America.
This
marked
the second consec
week.
The
highest
rainfall
totals
(>100
mm)
were
in
Izabal
Department
of
Guatemala,
Atlántida
Department
of
Honduras,
and
the in the I
k where the heaviest rains were concentrated along the Caribbean coastline. The highest rainfall totals (>100mm) werealong
recorded
Caribbean
coastline
of
Costa
Rica.
Rain
gauges
recorded
over
180
mm
in
Limón,
Costa
Rica.
While
heavy
rains
fell
across
the
Caribbean
artment of Guatemala, the Atlántida department of Honduras and the Caribbean coastline of Costa Rica. Rain gauges recorded over 180m
sideduring
of Central
rainfall
remained
light
(<10fell
mm)
across the
the interior
and Pacific
coastlines.
are expected
ón, Costa Rica
theAmerica,
past week.
While
heavy
rains
across
Caribbean
side of
CentralClimatologically,
America, rainsrains
remained
light (<10mm) a
to
be
light
across
central
and
western
Central
America.
However,
30-day
rainfall
is
25-100
mm
below
average
across
interior
portions
of
ior and Pacific coastline portions. Climatologically, rains are expected to be light across central and western Central
America;
how
Nicaragua,
northwestern
Guatemala,
and
Gracias
a
Dios
Department
of
Honduras.
In
Matagalpa
Region
of
Nicaragua,
farmers
delayed
ative thirty-day rainfall anomalies (25-100mm) indicate dry conditions across interior portions of Nicaragua, northwestern Guatemala an
planting in December
due toIn
poor
while in
the Atlantic
zone of Nicaragua
conditions
persistin
even
though crops
cias a Dios department
of Honduras.
therainfall,
Matagalpa
region
of Nicaragua,
farmersdry
delayed
planting
December
dueare
to developing
poor rains, while i
normally.
ntic zone of Nicaragua dry conditions persist even though crops are developing normally.
During
the next
week,
heavyshowers
coastal showers
(>50 mm)
are forecast
alongthe
theCaribbean
Caribbean coastlines
of Central
America,
with thewith
heaviest
the next seven
days,
heavy
coastal
(>50mm)
are forecast
along
coastlines
of Central
America
the heaviest
rains
likely
across
Costa
Rica
and
southeastern
Nicaragua.
Moderate
rainfall
(10-40
mm)
is
expected
across
inland
Nicaragua,
and
y across Costa Rica and southeastern Nicaragua. Moderate rains (10-40mm) are expected across northern and central Guatemala and in
and central
Guatemala,
should
reduceMeanwhile,
recent rainfall
deficits. Meanwhile,
should
remainacross
above freezing
ragua whichnorthern
should help
to reduce
recentwhich
rainfall
deficits.
temperatures
shouldtemperatures
remain above
freezing
Central America.
across Central America.
Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm)
Figure 1: Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm)
January 14 – January 21, 2014
Valid: January 14 - 21, 2015
Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC
Rainfall continues across the Gulf of Gonaives
Source: NOAA/CPC
During
the past
little
to no rain fell acrossor Haiti
and the
ons or comments about
this product
mayweek,
be directed
to [email protected]
1-301-683-3424.
Dominican Republic, aside from locally moderate to heavy rain (>25
mm) that fell across the Gulf of Gonaives in Haiti. Most of the rain fell just off the northern and southern coastlines of the island,
resulting in light to moderate coastal showers in northern Dominican Republic and Haiti. During the past 30 days, rainfall has been
below average across Hispaniola, except for near Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Recent NDVI imagery shows localized poor ground conditions across the Nord-Ouest and Ouest departments of Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic, which developed much earlier
during the 2014 rainy season. For the next week, seasonally dry conditions are expected with light to moderate rain (5-30 mm)
forecast for eastern Dominican Republic and light rain (<10 mm) expected elsewhere. The heaviest rains are expected to remain
offshore of northern Hispaniola.
ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDS
Hazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and
pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at
this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
4