- Famine Early Warning Systems Network
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- Famine Early Warning Systems Network
FEWS NET FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Global Weather Hazards Summary October 3-9, 2014 Above-average rains continue in Central America, dryness remains in several parts of East and West Africa Africa Weather Hazards Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat Seasonally Dry 4 3 5 1.Below-average rains during the Belg season and a late onset of the Kiremt rains have led to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed planting and negatively affected the development of already-planted crops in the Arsi and West Arsi zones of central Ethiopia. 2 2 1 6 7 2. An early end of Mar-May seasonal rainfall and an abnormally dry July have inhibited crop and pasture development in central and northern Ethiopia. 3. Despite a return of seasonally normal rainfall during August, moisture deficits persist in northwestern Senegal. The delayed onset of the season in July has resulted in poor growing conditions and crop development. Source: FEWS NET/NOAA 4. Poor July rains in several local areas of Mali have resulted in poor crop and pastoral conditions. 5. Poor rainfall since mid-August has led to late-season moisture deficits, increasing the likelihood for adverse ground impacts throughout many parts of western and southern Niger, eastern Mali, and northern Nigeria. Below average rains are forecast in the region for the next week. 6. Well above-average precipitation forecast over arid areas of northern Somalia are likely to trigger localized flooding. 7. Since the beginning of September, poor rains have inhibited crop development and compromised planting activities throughout Rwanda. FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected], [email protected], or 1-301-683-3424. Weather Hazards Summary October 3-9, 2014 Latin America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards 1. Moderate to heavy rain during the past several weeks has reduced rainfall deficits across Hispaniola. Though increased rains have helped to mitigate long-term seasonal dryness throughout Hispaniola, dryness remains across southern Haiti and parts of southwestern Dominican Republic. Reduced rainfall forecast during the next week is expected to further prolong dryness. 1 1 2 5 3 Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat 4 No Hazards Posted for Central America 2. Torrential rains during the past month have driven river levels above alert-level in Petén Department of Guatemala. With additional localized heavy rain forecast for the next week, flooding risks remain elevated in northern Guatemala. 3. Abundant rains during the past several weeks have caused flooding and landslides across southern Guatemala. This rain could also combine with a high amounts of pyroclastic materials from the volcanos Santiaguito and Fuego to increase flooding risks. Heavy rains forecast during the next week are increasing the risk of additional flooding and landslides. 4. Several weeks of above-average rain have led to saturated ground conditions and 30-day rainfall surpluses in excess of 150 percent of normal. With abundant rain forecast for the next week, localized flooding is possible. Source: FEWS NET/NOAA 5. Heavy rains during the past several weeks have caused flooding and landslides in Huehuetenango Department of Guatemala. Heavy rain forecast for the next week will increase the risk of additional landslides. Central Asia Weather Hazards 1. Recent rains during September have improved conditions across parts of northwest Kazakhstan after below-normal precipitation since May led to drought conditions. However, abnormal dryness still remains. 2. Poorly distributed rainfall since May has led to strengthening moisture deficits, and low soil moisture in southeastern Kazakhstan. Temperatures Seasonal temperatures prevailed across northeast Kazakhstan from September 21-27, while temperatures averaged 1-5°C above normal across the rest of Central Asia. Freezing temperatures were limited to northeast Kazakhstan and the higher elevations of Afghanistan and Tajikistan. During the first week of October, the GFS model indicates that freezing temperatures will remain confined to northern Kazakhstan and the higher elevations of Central Asia. 1 2 Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat Source: FEWS NET/NOAA Precipitation Light to moderate rain (17 mm or less) fell across northwest Kazakhstan, which reduced long-term precipitation deficits. Due to rainfall this month, drought conditions in this area have improved to abnormal dryness. Locally heavy rain (up to 50 mm) fell across extreme eastern Afghanistan. According to the CPC-unified dataset, the largest 90-day precipitation deficits (>50 mm) are across southern Russia. During the next week, the GFS model indicates light to moderate precipitation (5-25 mm) across northern Kazakhstan, with heavier amounts (>25 mm) across southeast Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 ased rains received over anomalously dry areas of gal, Niger. Valid: September 21 – September 27, 2014 Satellite Estimated October Rainfall (mm) last seven days, the over northern limit of seasonal rain front ased rains received anomalously dry areas of Weather Hazards Summary 3-9, 2014 Valid: September 21 – September 27, 2014 /ITF)Niger. was still active across the southern Sahel region in West gal, , bringingAfrica well-distributed and favorable amounts of Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm) ed rains received over anomalously dry areas of itation during the final week of September. The highest weekly Valid: September 21 – September 27, 2014 last seven days, the northern limit of seasonal rain front al, Niger. Increased rains received over anomalously dry areas of Senegal, Niger. Figure 1: Satellite-Estimated Rainfall (mm) mulations observed across costal Guinea, SierrainLeone, /ITF) was were still active across the southern Sahel region West Valid: September 21-27, 2014 beria, withInincreased rainfall observed many the last week, the northern limitfavorable ofthroughout the seasonal rain frontparts (ITF/ITCZ) ,last bringing well-distributed and amounts of seven days, theGhana, northern limit of seasonal rain front thern Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Further east,wellremained over week the southern Sahel regionFaso. in West Africa, weekly bringing itation during the final ofand September. The highest TF) was still active across the southern Sahel region in West distributed and favorable amounts of rain. The highest amounts , but improved rains, were also received in western Niger andwere received mulations were observed across costal Guinea, Sierra Leone, bringing well-distributed and favorable amounts of in coastal Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, with rainfall increases aberia, (Figure 1). Along the Gulf of Guinea coastline, seasonal with increased rainfall observed throughout many parts also ation during the final week of September. The highest weekly observed in many parts of northern Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Burkina Faso. er activity was present. thern d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Burkina Faso.Sierra Further east, lationsCote were observed across Lesser, but improved rains costal were alsoGuinea, received in westernLeone, Niger and Nigeria , but improved rains, were also received in western Niger and eria, with increased observed throughout manyweekly parts of rain. (Figure 1). The Gulf of Guinea coastline received seasonal amounts latest position ofrainfall the Gulf ITF/ITCZ, locally moderate ahe(Figure 1). Along of Guinea coastline, seasonal hern Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Burkina Faso. Further east, mulations were mostly received in the eastern and er activity (10-25mm) was present. With the latest position of the ITF/ITCZ, moderate rains (10-25mm) but improved rains, werehelping also received in western Niger and mostly rn portions of Senegal, to mitigate abnormal dryness fell inAlong eastern the and western helping to alleviate abnormal dryness (Figure Gulfrains ofSenegal, Guinea coastline, seasonal ming from1). poor and earlier inmoderate the season. In he latest position of erratic the ITF/ITCZ, locally weekly Figure 1: NOAA/CPC stemming from poor and erratic rains earlier in the season. In addition, a activity was present. on, a late(10-25mm) surge ofofrains and moisture Niger mulations wereover mostly received in western the eastern andis late surge rains western Niger over is expected to help offset moisture expected offset helping developing moisture deficits due toSatellitedeficits stemming from below-average rainfall since latedryness August. rn portionsto ofhelp Senegal, to mitigate abnormal Satellite Estimated Weekly Rain Anomaly Tendency (mm e latestrains position ofrainfall the August. ITF/ITCZ, locally moderate weekly essed since late Satellite estimate anomaly estimated anomalies suggest an increasing late-season rainfallFigure trend 1: NOAA/CPC ming from poor and erratic rains earlier in the season. In Valid: September 27, 2014 lations (10-25mm) were mostly received in western thetrend eastern and inan southern Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, and Guinea (Figure 2). Despite sis depicts increasing late-season rainfall southern on, a late surge of rains and moisture over Niger is these portionsSenegal of Senegal, helping toseasonal mitigate abnormal dryness recent improvements, both andDespite short-term moisture deficits remain (Figure 2). some these Nigeria, and expected to help offsetGuinea developing moisture deficits due to Satellite Estimated Weekly Rain Anomaly Tendency (mm) Source: NOAA/CPC ng from poor and erratic rains earlier in the season. In in many local areas, which may still adversely impact crop and pastoral Figure 1: NOAA/CPC improvements, seasonal Satellite and short-term moisture essed rains since both late August. estimate anomaly Valid: September 27, 2014 Figure 2: Satellite-Estimated Weekly Rain Anomaly a depicts late surge of local rainsareas, and moisture Niger is s, remain inconditions. many which stillover maywestern adversely impact sis an increasing late-season rainfall trend southern Tendancy (mm) Valid: September 27, 2014 pected toSenegal help offset developing moisture deficits due to nd pastoral conditions. Satellite Estimated Weekly Rain Anomaly Tendency (mm) (Figure 2). Despite some these Nigeria, and Guinea For the next week, the ITF/ITCZ is expected to continue its retreat toward ssed rains since late August. Satellite estimate anomaly Valid: September 27, 2014 improvements, both seasonal and short-term moisture the Equator, reducing rainfall throughout the trend Sahel insouthern West Africa. sse depicts an increasing late-season rainfall upcoming outlook period, the ITFsurge is continue its Mali and remain inHowever, many local areas, which stillexpected adversely impact another late-season inmay rainfall isto forecast central (Figure 2). Despite some in these Nigeria, Senegal and Guinea orward retreat, resulting in reduced rainfall throughout the nd pastoral conditions. southeastern Mauritania, leading to another week favorable rainfall. Average improvements, both seasonal and short-term moisture in West Africa. However, another surge to above-average rains are alsolate-season expected in themoisture Gulf of Guinea region during remain in many local areas, which still may adversely impact ecast in central Maliperiod, and southeastern Mauritania, which e upcoming outlook the ITF is expected to continue itsis early October. dted pastoral conditions. to bring another week favorablerainfall rainfallthroughout in the region. orward retreat, resulting in reduced the Above-average rains expected in East Africa during the next week ge to above-average rains are also expected further south in in West Africa. However, another late-season moisture surge upcoming outlook period, the ITF is expected to continue its ecast in central and of southeastern Mauritania, is has been ulf of Guinea region during early October. Since theMali beginning September, rainfall throughout which East Africa ward resulting in reduced rainfall throughout the ted toretreat, bring another week favorable rainfall in the region. average to above-average with a few local areas in Ethiopia receiving belowngeWest Africa. However, another late-season moisture surge to above-average are expected further in average rains. rains Much of thisalso late-season increase in rainssouth and moisture is ast in central Mali and southeastern Mauritania, which is ulf of Guinea regiontoduring earlythat October. expected benefit areas have experienced poor and erratic rains earlier Figure 2: NOAA/CPC d to bringthis another week infavorable rainfall in the region. summer. e-average rains exepcted East Africa. e to above-average rains are also expected further south in For theof next week, early moderate to heavy rains are forecast several regions GFS Weekly Total Precipitation Forecast (mm) of Guinea region during October. the beginning September, rainfall throughout EastforAfrica Source: NOAA/CPC in the East Africa. In western and central Ethiopia, late season Kiremt rains September 22 – September 29, 2014 NOAA/CPC e-average rains exepcted Africa. een predimontly average intoEast above-average with few local Figure 2:Valid: Figure 3. GFS Total Precipitation Forecast (mm) are expected to continue in early October. Further east, an onset of wellValid: September 29 - October 6, 2014 in Ethiopiadistributed experienceing below-average rains. Much of this moderate to locally heavy rains is also forecast, with the highest GFS Weekly Total Precipitation Forecast (mm) the beginning of September, rainfall throughout East Africa eason increase in rainsexpected and moisture expected benefit rainfall amounts in northernisSomalia, whichto could trigger localized Valid: September 22 – September 29, 2014 Figure 2: NOAA/CPC average rains exepcted in East Africa. een average to above-average with few local that predimontly have experienced poor and erratic rains earlier thisareas flooding. The onset of coastal showers is also expected in several of in Ethiopiasouthern experienceing rains. of this er. Somalia andbelow-average southeastern Kenya (FigureMuch 3). GFS Weekly Total Precipitation Forecast (mm) eason increaseofinSeptember, rains and moisture is expected to benefit he beginning rainfall throughout East Africa Valid: September 22 – September 29, 2014 that have experienced poor and erraticto rains this en predimontly average to above-average with earlier few he upcoming outlook period, moderate heavy rainslocal are ner. experienceing rains.In Much of this stEthiopia for several regions inbelow-average the East Africa. western and increase rains and moisture is expected benefit lson Ethiopia, theincontinuation of late season Kiremttorains are he upcoming outlook period, moderate to heavy rains are hat have experienced poor and erratic rains earlier this ted into early October. Further east, the onset of wellst formoderal severaltoregions in the rains East are Africa. In western r. uted locally heavy also forecast, withand the the continuationexpected of late season Kiremt rains are stl Ethiopia, rainfall accumulations over northern Somalia. ted intocould early October. Further east, in onset of Inwellrains trigger localized flooding the region. the upcoming outlook period, moderate to the heavy rains are uted moderal to locally heavy rains are also forecast, with the the several onset ofregions coastalinshower activity is also exepcedand for t, for the East Africa. In western stEthiopia, rainfall accumulations expected over northern Somalia. al areas in the southern Somalia, Kenya (Figure continuation ofand latesoutheastern season Kiremt rains are trigger localized the onset region.of Inwellthe drains into could early October. Furtherflooding east, in the Source: NOAA/CPC ,edthe onset of coastal shower activity is also exepced for moderal to locally heavy rains are also forecast, with the Figure 3: NOAA/CPC alrainfall areasFamine inaccumulations southern Somalia, and southeastern Kenya (Figure Early Warning Systemsover Network 3 expected northern Somalia. rains could trigger localized flooding in the region. In the The hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to Figure 3: are NOAA/CPC onset of coastal activity is pasture also exepced ).the It assesses their potentialshower impact on crop and conditions.for Shaded polygons added in areas where anomalous conditions hav Weather Hazards Summary October 3-9, 2014 Latin America and the Caribbean Torrential rainsacross observed in saturated of northern Central America ntial rains were observed saturated areasareas of northern Central America. During the past week, heavy rains (>50 mm) fell across saturated areas of Central America, including Costa Rica, Panama, and the g the past seven days, heavy of rains (>50mm) were observed across areas America Rica,Costa Panama Pacific coastline northern Central America. More thansaturated 100 mm of rain of fellCentral in coastal Belize,including northernCosta Honduras, Rica,and andthe c coastline of northern Central America. The heaviest rains (>100mm) were located around the Gulf of Fonseca, coastal Belize, northern near the Gulf of Fonseca. The highest rainfall amounts (>200 mm) were recorded in Choluteca and Yoro, Honduras and Belize City, uras and across Costa Rica. The highest precipitation totals (>200mm) were recorded in Choluteca and Yoro, Honduras and Belize City, Belize.fell Rain across saturated areasininGuatemala Guatemalaresulted caused flooding andand landslides in Santa Guatemala, Suchitepéquez, Alta . The rains which across saturated areas in flooding landslides in theRosa, Santa Rosa, Guatemala, Suchitepéquez, anddepartments. Escuintla Departments. Severalofweeks of above-average rains have ledthirty-day to 30-dayrainfall rainfall surpluses surpluses throughout erapaz and Verapaz Escuintla Several weeks above-average rains have led to throughoutCentral Central America. The largest surpluses (>200 mm) are located the Gulf Fonseca in Salvador, and Nicaragua. Due to ca. The largest surpluses (>200mm) are located around the Gulfaround of Fonseca in of Honduras, ElHonduras, Salvador El and Nicaragua. The abundant rains September above-average have led to average to above-average Postrera season rainfall in Central America. The to average to above-average rainfall during September, Postrera season rainfall totalstotals in Central America are average above-average, which nal rainfall tostands date stands in contrast to the below-average Primeraduring season poor rains in rains July in negatively impacted cropping in contrast to the below-average rainfall received therainfall. PrimeraWhile season. While poor July resulted in reduced es through Central America resulting in reduced crop yields, heavy rains during the Postrera season have improved cropping activities. crop yields throughout Central America, heavy rains during the Postrera season have improved cropping activities. During the rains next week, heavy (>50 mm) are forecast for including Central America, including previously saturated g the next week, heavy (>50mm) arerains again forecast foragain Central America previously saturated areas around theareas Gulf around of Fonseca uatemala. The rains could cause additional flooding across areas inacross Guatemala. Elsewhere, rains (>50mm) are theabundant Gulf of Fonseca and Guatemala. These rains could causeflood-prone additional flooding flood-prone areas inheavy Guatemala. Heavy rains xpected across Rica, Panama and the Caribbean Nicaragua, whilecoastline moderate locally heavy (>25mm) is forecast (>50Costa mm) are also expected across Costa Rica,coastline Panama, of and the Caribbean of to Nicaragua, whilerain moderate to locally heavyfor r portions of Central as well as Caribbean northern Central America.coastline of northern Central America. rain (>25America mm) is forecast forthe inland portionscoastlines of CentralofAmerica and the Caribbean Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm) Figure 1: Seven-Day Total Rainfall ForecastOctober (mm) 1 – October 8, 2014 Valid: October 1-8, 2014 Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC Source: NOAA/CPC Heavy rain to continue improving agricultural conditions in southern Haiti or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected] or 1-301-683-3424. During the past week, moderate to heavy rain (>25 mm) fell across much of Hispaniola. The heaviest rain (>50 mm) fell across central/northern Haiti and western/northern Dominican Republic. The above-average weekly rains reduced 30-day and seasonal rainfall deficits across dry areas of Hispaniola, including northern/central Dominican Republic and the southern peninsula of Haiti. Thirty-day rainfall totals are near average across Hispaniola, with below-average rainfall only in localized areas of southwestern Dominican Republic. Rainfall since August 1st has also been near average across the island, with rainfall deficits lingering only in southern Haiti. However, the long-term impact from dryness during much of the summer is evident in ground conditions across Hispaniola. According NDVI, ground conditions remained poor across southern Haiti and bordering southwestern Dominican Republic during the middle of September. Conditions also remain poor in local areas of northern Dominican Republic, although recent rains have led to improvements. During the next week, rainfall is expected to be moderate to locally heavy (>25mm) in local areas of central Hispaniola. Light to moderate rain (5-20 mm) is expected elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDS Hazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4
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