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- FEWS Net
FEWS NET
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
Global Weather Hazards Summary
October 30 - November 5, 2015
Slow start to rainy season in southern Africa, flooding risks remain in Guatemala, Somalia, and Ethiopia
Africa Weather Hazards
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Seasonally Dry
1. Persistently belowaverage rainfall since
August over several
1
bimodal areas of Côte d’Ivoire,
Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria has led to an increase
in moisture deficits and a degradation of ground
conditions, resulting in drought.
3
2
4
2. Below-average rainfall since August has led to increased
moisture deficits throughout several provinces in southern
South Sudan and northern Uganda. Dry conditions stretch
into Lake Victoria regions of western Kenya.
3. Poorly distributed rainfall has resulted in drought, which
has severely impacted ground conditions and already
led to livestock death across parts of north-central eastern
Ethiopia.
5
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
4. Heavy rains over the last 2 weeks have led to swelling rivers in
Somalia and Southern Ethiopia. The Shabelle River and the Jubba
River are forecast to be near or above flood stage. Flood risk is high
for the middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle and moderate for the lower portions of the Jubba River. Additional forecast
rain threatens to exacerbate the situation, maintaining the risk for river and flash flooding.
5. Erratic and poorly distributed rainfall over the past month has led to early-season moisture deficits in the sugarcane growing
region of South Africa. Vegetation indices reveal that ground conditions are already degrading.
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for
International Development or the United States Government.The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by
FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries
concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected], [email protected], or 1-301-683-3424.
hwestern Africa
Valid: October 21 – October 27, 2015
average rains in bimodal West Africa; abnormal rainfall in
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm)
fall finally returned to more normal totals for far western Africa. The
western Africa
Valid:
October 21 – October 27, 2015
rn across
the West
Africa region
was characterized by widespread
Weather
Hazards
Summary
October
30 - November 5, 2015
-normal rains for most. Local areas of Guinea, and Guinea-Bissau
average
rains
intobimodal
Africa;
abnormal
rainfall
in
all
finally
returned
more normal
totals
for
far
western
Africa.
The
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm)
rved
greater
than
75mm.
InWest
southern
bimodal
regions,
near
or
Africa
Overview
western
Africa
ntly
across
the
West
Africa
region
was
characterized
by
widespread
Valid: October 21 – October 27, 2015
above normal rains have stabilized deficits. A stream of tropical
normal
rainsAbnormal
forbrought
most.
Local
areas amounts
of Guinea,
Guinea-Bissau
Figure 1: Satellite-Estimated Rainfall (mm)
rainfall
in northwestern
Africaofand
ntic
moisture
abnormal
precipitation
(25Valid: October 21-27, 2015
ved
greater
than
75mm.
In
southern
bimodal
regions,
near
or
all finally
returned
to more normal
for far western
Africa.
The
mm)
to regions
in Western
Sahara,totals
Mauritania,
and western
Algeria
y
above
normal
rains
have
stabilized
deficits.
A
stream
of
tropical
The
pattern
across
West Africa
was characterized
widespread
n across
the
West
region
was
characterized
bybywidespread
ure
1). Rainfall
wasAfrica
more
mixed
in Nigeria,
with scattered
abovenear-normal
c moisture
brought
abnormal
amounts
of and
precipitation
Local
of Guinea
and
Guinea-Bissau
received
more(25than 75mm of
normal
rainsrains.
for
most.areas
Local
areas
of Guinea,
Guinea-Bissau
below
normal
conditions
being
observed.
m)
regions
in Western
Sahara,
Mauritania,
western
Algeria
rainfall.
In75mm.
southern
regions,
nearand
or regions,
slightly
above
normal
vedtogreater
than
Inbimodal
southern
bimodal
near
or rains have
re
1).
Rainfall
was
more
mixed
in
Nigeria,
with
scattered
above
stabilized
deficits.
A
stream
of
tropical
Atlantic
moisture
brought
y
above
normal
rains
have
stabilized
deficits.
A
stream
of
tropical
ysis of satellite estimated 30-Day rainfall anomalies reveal wetabnormal
precipitation
(25-100mm)
toamounts
Western
Sahara,
Mauritania,
and(25western
elow
normal
conditions
being
observed.
ic
moisture
brought
abnormal
of precipitation
itions
for much
of West
Africa
with
the exception
of Nigeria
and
Algeria
(Figure
1).
Rainfall
conditions
were
mixed
in
Nigeria.
m)
to
regions
in
Western
Sahara,
Mauritania,
and
western
Algeria
eroon, which have developed substantial deficits over the period
sis 1).
of Rainfall
satellite
estimated
30-Day
anomalies
reveal
wet
re
was
more
mixed
in rainfall
Nigeria,
with scattered
above
ure
2).
The greatest
positive
anomalies
(>200mm)
are observed
in
Analysis
of
satellite
estimated
30-day
rainfall
anomalies
reveal
ions
for
much
of
West
Africa
with
the
exception
of
Nigeria
and
elow
normal
conditions
being
observed.
hern Senegal with widespread anomalies greater than 100mmwet
in conditions
forhave
much developed
of West Africa,
with the exception
of over
Nigeriathe
andperiod
Cameroon, where
roon,
which
substantial
deficits
hboring regions. Most of Nigeria exhibits negative anomalies, with
substantial
deficits 30-Day
have
developed
(Figure
2). The
positive
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
re
greatest
positive
anomalies
(>200mm)
are greatest
observed
in anomalies
sis2).
of The
satellite
estimated
rainfall
anomalies
reveal
wet
greatest
deficits
(>200mm)
located
along
the
Cameroon
border.
(>200mm)
are
in
southern
Senegal,
with
widespread
anomalies
greater
than
ern
Senegal
with
widespread
anomalies
greater
than
100mm
in
ions
for much
of West
Africa
with theof exception
of Nigeria rains
and
e regional
deficits
equate
to 25-50%
normal. Monsoonal
100mm
in
neighboring
regions.
Most
of
Nigeria
exhibits
negative
anomalies,
Estimated 30-day Rainfall anomaly (mm)
boring
regions.
Most
of Nigeria
exhibits
negative
with
roon,
which
have
developed
substantial
deficits
over
thebut
period
shifted
southward
into
bimodal
areas in
recent anomalies,
weeks,
they FigureSatellite
1:
NOAA/CPC
with
the
greatest
deficits
(>200mm)
located
along
the
Cameroon
border.
Valid:
September 27 – October 26, 2015
reatest
deficits
(>200mm)
located
along
the
Cameroon
border.
re
2). The
greatest
positive
anomalies
(>200mm)
areand
observed
in
been
insufficient
to alleviate
moisture
deficits
ensuing
These
regional
deficits
equate
to
25-50%
of
normal.
Monsoonal
rains
have
regional
deficits
equate to As
25-50%
of drought
normal.
Monsoonal
rains
ern
Senegal
with concerns.
widespread
anomalies
greaterconditions
than 100mm
in
ping
and livestock
a result,
persist
shifted southward
into bimodal
in recentweeks,
weeks, but
have been Satellite Estimated 30-day Rainfall anomaly (mm)
shifted regions.
southward
into
areasareas
innegative
recent
butthey
they
boring
Most
of bimodal
Nigeria exhibits
anomalies,
with
insufficient
to
alleviate
moisture
deficits
and
ensuing
cropping
and
livestock
Valid:
September 27 – October 26, 2015
Figure 1:
NOAA/CPC
been
insufficient
to alleviate
moisture
deficits
andnormal,
ensuing
reatest
deficitsoutlook
(>200mm)
located
along
the
Cameroon
border.
Figure 2: Satellite-Estimated 30-day Rainfall Anomaly
the
upcoming
GFS
forecasts
suggest
or
concerns. As a period,
result, drought
conditions
persist.
ng
and livestock
a rule
result,
conditions
persist
(mm) Valid: September 27-October 26, 2015
etly
regional
deficits
equate
25-50%
ofdrought
normal.
Monsoonal
rains
below,
rainfallconcerns.
remainstoAs
the
for
all of West
Africa.
Rains
Satellite
Estimated
30-day Rainfall anomaly (mm)
shifted
southward
into
bimodal
areas
in
recent
weeks,
but
they
ld nearly cease
in Senegal
Mali. The
mostnormal
significant
rains
During the
next week,and
GFS forecasts
suggest
or slightly
below-normal
Valid:
September
27 – October 26, 2015
he
upcoming
outlook
period,
GFS
forecasts
suggest
normal,
or
been
insufficient
to
alleviate
moisture
deficits
and
ensuing
ld
be
located
across
Sierra
Liberia,
Cote
D’Ivoire.
rainfall
across
all
ofLeone,
West Africa.
Rainsand
should
nearly
cease
in Senegal and
yngbelow,
rainfall
remains
the
forshould
all of
Africa.
Rains
and livestock
concerns.
As arule
result,
drought
conditions
Mali. The
most significant
rains
be West
located
acrosspersist
Sierra
Leone, Liberia,
d nearly cease
in Senegal
and Mali. The most significant rains
and Côte
D’Ivoire.
vy rains continued
in Somalia and southern Ethiopia last
d beupcoming
located across
Sierra
Leone,
Liberia,
and Cote
D’Ivoire.
he
outlook
period,
GFS
forecasts
suggest
normal, or
k.
y below, rainfall
remains
the
rule
for
all
of
West
Africa.
Rains
Heavy rains continued in Somalia and southern Ethiopia last
week
dy nearly
cease
in
Senegal
and
Mali.
The
most
significant
rains
rains
continued
in
Somalia
and
southern
Ethiopia
last
ng the recent period, well-distributed moderate-to-heavy rains were
d. be locatedDuring
across
Sierra
Leone,
Liberia, and
Cote D’Ivoire. rains were
theof
past
week,
well-distributed
rved across much
East
Africa
accordingmoderate-to-heavy
to satellite estimates.
observed
across much
East Africa,inaccording
to satellite
estimates.
ential rainfall
(>150mm)
was of
observed
local areas
of southTorrential
rainfall
(>150mm)
was
observed
in
local
areas
of
south-central
rains
continued
in Somalia
and
southern
last
Somalia
and
southeastern
Ethiopia
(Figure
3). Ethiopia
As rains
a result
of
gyalthe
recent
period,
well-distributed
moderate-to-heavy
were
Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia (Figure 3). As a result of these rains on
. rains
eved
on already
areas,
river flooding
is likely
in and
across
much ofsaturated
East Africa
according
to satellite
estimates.
already saturated areas, river flooding is likely in and downstream of the
nstream
of the(>150mm)
region during
outlook period.
rains
ntial
rainfall
wasthe
observed
in localAbove-normal
areas of southregion during the next week. Rainfall was also above average in the Lake
Figure 2:
NOAA/CPC
also
observed
in
the
Lake
Victoria
region.
Seasonably
distributed
l
Somalia
and
southeastern
Ethiopia
(Figure
3).
As
a
result
of
g the recentVictoria
period,
well-distributed
moderate-to-heavy
rainsrains
were
region.
Seasonably distributed
light-to-moderate
occurred
to-moderate
rains occurred
elsewhere
throughout
the
region.
rainsacross
on already
saturated
areas,
river
flooding
is likely
in and
ved
much
of
East Africa
according
to satellite
estimates.
elsewhere
throughout
the region.
Satellite Estimated Rainfall
(mm)
Source: NOAA/CPC
stream
of
the
region
during
the
outlook
period.
Above-normal
rains
ntial rainfall (>150mm) was observed in local areas of southFigure 2: Valid:
NOAA/CPC
October 21– October 27, 2015
also
observed
insoutheastern
the
Lake Victoria
region.
Seasonably
onged,
erratic
insufficient
rainfall
over
theover
past
2past
months
has
Figure 3: Satellite-Estimated Rainfall (mm)
al
Somalia
andand
Ethiopia
(Figure
3).the
As
adistributed
ofhas led to
Prolonged
erratic and insufficient
rainfall
2result
months
Valid: October 21-27, 2015
o-moderate
rains
occurred
elsewhere
throughout
the
region.
orains
poor vegetation
conditions
in
southern
Ethiopia,
South
Sudan
and
on already
saturated
areas,
river
flooding
is
likely
in
and
poor vegetation conditions in southern Ethiopia, South Sudan and Uganda.
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm)
nda.
conditions
extend
intosouthwestern
southwestern
where
streamPoor
of the
region
during
the outlook
period. Above-normal
rains about
Poor
conditions
extend
into
Kenya,Kenya,
raising concerns
Valid:
October 21– October 27, 2015
Figure 2:
NOAA/CPC
erns observed
about
available
moisture
for cropping
and
pastoral
activities
nged,
erratic
and
insufficient
rainfall
over
the
past
2 months
hasrains starting
also
in the
Lake
Victoria
region.
Seasonably
distributed
available
moisture
for
cropping
and pastoral
activities.
Stronger
persist.
Better
rains
starting
past
week
should
begin
to
ease
poor
vegetation
conditions
in this
southern
Ethiopia,
South
Sudan
andDuring the
o-moderate
rains
occurred
elsewhere
throughout
the in
region.
this
past
week
should
begin
to ease
the situation
these
areas.
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm)
situation
these
areas.
During
the
outlook
period,
widespread
da.
Poor inconditions
extend
into
southwestern
Kenya,
where
upcoming week, widespread moderate-to-heavy rains are expected across
Valid:
October 21– October 27, 2015
ncedabout
moderate-to-heavy
rains
are
expected
across
East
Africa
rns
available
moisture
formodel
cropping
andAbove-normal
pastoral
activities
nged,
erratic
and
insufficient
rainfall
over
the
past
2 months
has
East
Africa,
according
to
forecasts.
rains,
possibly
rding
toBetter
model
forecasts.
Above-normal
rains,should
possibly
greater
than
persist.
rains
starting
this
pastin week
begin
to ease
poor vegetation
conditions
inare
southern
Ethiopia,
South
Sudan
and flooding
greater
than
75mm,
likely
south-central
Somalia,
continuing
m,
are
likely
in
south-central
Somalia,
continuing
flooding
concerns.
tuation
in
these
areas.
During
the
outlook
period,
widespread
da. Poor conditions
extend
into near
southwestern
Kenya, where
concerns. Rainfall
will remain
normal in north-central
Ethiopia.
fall
remain
near normal
in north-central
Ethiopia.
cedwill
moderate-to-heavy
rains
arecropping
expected
East
Africa
rns
about
available
moisture
for
andacross
pastoral
activities
ding
to
model
forecasts.
Above-normal
rains,
possibly
greater
than
Rains
startstarting
slowly asthis
monsoon
Southern
Africa
persist. Better
rains
past season
week begins
shouldforbegin
to ease
s
start
slowly
as
monsoon
season
begins
for
Southern
Africa.
, are likely
south-central
Somalia,
floodingwidespread
concerns.
tuation
in in
these
areas. During
the continuing
outlook period,
all willmoderate-to-heavy
remain
near
normal
in north-central
Ethiopia.
Rains
have
been erratic
and
distributed
in theEast
very early
beginning of
nced
rains
arepoorly
expected
across
Africa
theerratic
season.and
Moisture
deficits
are rains,
developing
Angola
andgoings
the
sugarcanes have
been
poorly
distributed
in possibly
the invery
early
ding
to model
forecasts.
Above-normal
greater
than
growing
region of
Africa.
Vegetation
indices
indicate
degrading
estart
season.
Development
ofSouth
moisture
deficits
is beginning
inAfrica.
Angola
slowly
as monsoon
season
begins
for
Southern
m,
are
likely
in south-central
Somalia,
continuing
flooding
concerns.
conditions
on the
ground.
is concerning
as seasonal forecasts
thewill
sugar
cane
growing
region
ofThis
South
Africa.
Vegetation
indices call for a
all
remain
near
normal
in north-central
Ethiopia.
season,
especially
for
South
Africa.
ate
degrading
conditions
already
on the
ground.
concerning
have
beendry
erratic
and
poorly
distributed
in the This
very is
early
goings
Source: NOAA/CPC
Figure 3: NOAA/CPC
easonal
forecasts
call
for
a
dry
season,
especially
for
South
Africa.
season.
Development
of moisture
beginning
in Africa.
Angola
start slowly
as monsoon
seasondeficits
beginsisfor
Southern
he sugar cane growing region of South Africa. Vegetation indices
Famine
Early
Warning
Systems
Network
2
e:
The
hazards
outlook
map
on page
1 is
based
current
tehave
degrading
conditions
already
on
the
ground.
This
concerning
been erratic
and
poorly
distributed
inonthe
veryisweather/climate
early
goings information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1
k). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded
polygons
are
added
in
areas
where
anomalous
conditions
have
Figure 3: NOAA/CPC
asonal
forecasts
call for of
a dry
season, especially
for SouthinAfrica.
Development
moisture
is are
beginning
Angola at this
nseason.
observed.
The boundaries
of these deficits
polygons
only approximate
continental scale. This product does not reflect long range
he
sugar
cane
growing
region of
South
Vegetation
indices
sonal
climate
forecasts
or indicate
current
or Africa.
projected
food security
conditions.
Weather Hazards Summary
October 30 - November 5, 2015
Central Asia Weather Hazards
1. A heavy snow hazard is posted over the highest
elevations of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as more
heavy snow is forecast over the regions during the
next week.
Temperatures
Below-normal temperatures (1 to 6 °C) persisted for
the second consecutive week across Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Freezing temperatures
occurred as far south as southern Turkmenistan during
the past week, with minimum temperatures falling
to -19 °C across northern Kazakhstan. The GFS model
indicates that near to above-normal temperatures will
return to Central Asia during the next week.
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Precipitation
During the past week, moderate to heavy precipitation
occurred across most of Central Asia, with the largest
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
amounts (more than 25 mm) observed across northern
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and eastern Uzbekistan. Snowfall
depths continue to increase across the higher elevations of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and northeast Afghanistan. The CPC Unified
Gauge analysis during the past 30 days indicates near to above-normal precipitation across the region. A relatively wet pattern
is expected to continue with more heavy snow (locally more than 25mm, liquid equivalent) across the higher elevations of
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and northeast Afghanistan.
3
Central America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards
1. Heavy and above-average rain has resulted
in flooding and landslides over many local
areas of Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador and
Honduras during the past week. Forecasts
indicate heavy rain is possible in Guatemala
during the next week, which could exacerbate
conditions on the ground and may trigger
flooding.
1
2. Despite increases in rainfall over the past two
weeks, rain has been below average in eastern Honduras and
east-central Nicaragua over the past five weeks. The insufficient rain
has led to moisture deficits, which have negatively impacted cropping
activities over many local areas.
2
No Hazards
Posted for
Central America
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
3. Poor rainfall distribution over the past several weeks has maintained
abnormal dryness along southern coasts of Hispaniola and eastern Dominican
Republic. Consistent and ample rain is required to eliminate deficits since the start
of the second rainfall season.
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
3
Weather Hazards Summary
October 30 - November 5, 2015
dd rain
rain is
is expected
expected for
for much
much of
of Central
Central America
America this
this week.
week. The
The heaviest
heaviest rain should be relegated to Guatemala and El Sa
Central America and the Caribbean Overview
e past
past week,
week, abundant
abundant rain
rain fell
fell in
in many
many areas
areas of
of Guatemala
Guatemala as
as well,
well, as
as local areas of El Salvador, Belize, and Honduras. R
200
observed
coastal
areas
of
Guatemala
andininGuatemala
the central
and
western highlands according
200 mm
mm was
was
observed
in the
the Pacific
Pacific
coastal
areas
of southern
southern
Guatemala
Decreased
rainin
expected
for much
of Central
America
this week with
heaviest rain
and El
Salvador
timates. Much
stimates.
Much lighter
lighter rainfall
rainfall was
was recorded
recorded along
along the
the dry
dry corridor
corridor of
of Honduras
Honduras and Nicaragua and points east. The above-ave
During the flooding,
past
week, landslides,
torrential
rainand
fell along
Pacific Basin
Centrallocal
America.
Rainfall
in excess America,
of 100 mm was
observed
week
even
fatalities
over
areas
of Central
including
El Salvador
week has
has triggered
triggered
flooding,
landslides,
and
eventhe
fatalities
overof some
some
local
from
the
Pacific
coastal
areas
of
southern
Guatemala,
El
Salvador,
and
western
Nicaragua
to
western
Costa
Rica
and
Panama,
ua
department
of
Honduras,
based
on
media
reports.
Many
departments
in
Guatemala
(70%
of
the
country)
have
been
severely
ua department of Honduras, based on media reports. Many departments in
according
to
TRMM
satellite
estimates.
Abundant
rain
was
also
registered
along
the
Gulf
of
Honduras
and
the
Northern
Atlantic
g,
g, with
with 223,000
223,000 affected
affected people
people according
according to
to reports.
reports. The
The substantial
substantial increase
increase in rainfall during the recent weeks has helped
Region
of northeastern
Nicaragua.
This well above-average
hasareas
triggered
fatalities over
local areas
ed moisture
moisture
deficits
and replenish
replenish
soil moisture
moisture
over many
many rain
local
areas
ed
deficits
and
soil
over
local
of flooding,
Central landslides,
America. and
However,
thirty-day
rainfall defi
of
Central
America,
including
El
Salvador
and
the
Comayagua
department
of
Honduras,
based
on
media
reports.
In
Guatemala,
the eastern
eastern parts
parts of
of Honduras
Honduras and
and east-central
east-central Nicaragua,
Nicaragua, and
and even
even northern
northern Guatemala due to poor rainfall distribution.
nn the
the heavy rain has also raised the water level of the La Pasión River to exceed its alert level. The substantial increase in rainfall
during recentof
weeks
has decreased
moisture
over many
areas
of Central
America. However,
thirty-day
rainfall
ext
week, continuation
continuation
of
moderate
to heavy
heavy
rain deficits
is forecasted
forecasted
tolocal
be relegated
relegated
xt week,
moderate
to
rain
is
to
be
to Guatemala,
and El
Salvador.
Additional rain
deficits
have
persisted
in
eastern
parts
of
Honduras
and
east-central
Nicaragua
due
to
poor
rainfall
distribution.
ld
further raise
raise river
river water
water levels
levels and
and keep
keep the
the risks
risks for
for mudslides,
mudslides, flashfloods,
flashfloods, and overflowing along downstream locations eleva
d further
During
the next
week,
moderate
heavy
is forecast
to continue
oversome
Centralcrop-producing
America with scattered
andwhich
heavy may
rain over
d persistence
persistence
of heavy
heavy
rain
could
also to
lead
torain
excess
of moisture
moisture
over
some
of
rain
could
also
lead
to
excess
of
over
areas,
favor fungus
Guatemala,
western
Honduras,
El
Salvador,
western
Nicaragua,
and
the
Southern
Caribbean.
The
forecast
additional
rain
is likely coasta
and
potentially negatively
negatively impacting
impacting bean
bean crops
crops in
in the
the region.
region. Many
Many other
other regions
regions of Central America, especially Atlantic
nd potentially
to raisedry
riverconditions
water levels further, elevating risks for overflowing along downstream locations. Continued heavy rain could also
urn to
to abnormally
abnormally
dry
conditions
urn
lead to excess of moisture in some crop-producing areas, which may favor fungus disease outbreak, negatively impacting bean
crops in the region. Light and below-average
rain isTotal
expected
eastern Honduras
and (mm)
the Atlantic Basin of Nicaragua and Costa
Week 11 Rainfall
Rainfall
Total
andinAnomaly
Anomaly
Week
and
Forecast
Rica, which may maintain dryness in the region.
October 29
29 –– November
November 4,
4, 2015
October
Figure 5: Seven-Day Rainfall Anomaly Forecast (mm)
Figure 4: Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm)
Valid: October 29 - November 4, 2015
Valid: October 29 - November 4, 2015
Figure 1:
1: Source
Source NOAA
NOAA // CPC
CPC
Figure
Source: NOAA/CPC
Source: NOAA/CPC
Heavy rains were prevalent across many central and northern provinces of the Dominican Republic last week
During the past week, moderate to heavy rain was observed over many central and northern provinces in the Dominican Republic.
Light to moderate rain prevailed elsewhere across the island. Over the past thirty days, rainfall anomalies have indicated moderate
to large (50-200 mm) moisture surpluses across north-central Dominican Republic and northern Haiti but comparable rainfall deficits for the southern half of Haiti. Since the beginning of August, rainfall has been unevenly distributed both in space and time over
Hispaniola, resulting in moderate seasonal deficits along the southern coasts of the island and eastern two-thirds of the Dominican
Republic. Recent vegetation indices have indicated poor and degraded conditions over many local areas near the coasts, especially
in western Haiti, and average to above-average conditions across the central portions of Hispaniola. Some improvement is being
observed in western Haiti. During the next week, mostly near average average rainfall is forecast over Hispaniola.
mmentsabout
aboutthis
thisproduct
productmay
maybe
bedirected
directedto
[email protected]
[email protected] or
or 1-301-683-3424.
1-301-683-3424.
mments
ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDS
Hazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and
pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at
this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
4

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