Mexico

Mexico
Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und
Energiemarkt in Mexiko
Erwin Feldhaus
Director CEE
Land and people
Young and dynamic
Mexico is a big country
Mexico
covers
2 million km2,
making it the 14th
largest country in
surface area in the
world.
=
3X
/
8X
3
A country of young people
112
million inhabitants
51%
The median age of the
population is
Age 26
48%
4
Demographics are on our side
Mexico’s demographic bonus
Mexico’s population pyramid (2030)*
Male
Female
China’s population pyramid (2030)*
Male
 112 million inhabitants with a median age of 26
 47 million people in the labor force.
 According to forecasts, there will be more than
60 million people in the labor force by 2030.
Source: US Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php ; INEGI, 2011; Population Projections for
Mexico 2005-2050, CONAPO. *Population (in millions) by age group.
Female
Economy
Strong and growing
Industrial redistribution
US Imports
Market Share
Canada
China
Germany
Japan
Mexico
20%
15%
12,5%
10%
Source: USDOC
Jan- Mar 12
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
0%
1988
5%
Exports as a Growth Driver
US Non-petrol Imports
Market share
(January-August 2010)
22,87%
12,73%
12,68%
7,63%
5,29%
China
Source: USDOC
Source:
World Bank
Mexico
Canada
Japan
Germany
Integration is the Future
The Picture
Trade and legal frameworks
North America: the
competitiveness agenda
X: 84.2%
M: 51.1%
Europe: seize opportunities and
deepen FTAs
X: 5.3%
M: 12.6%
X: 3.3%
M: 30.8%
Latin America: promote
regional integration
X: 6.6%
M: 4.6%
Asia: selective and
ad hoc approach
Presence in forae: ( WTO, APEC, OECD, LAIA)
Map of Mexico’s Advanced Manufacturing
Tijuana
Tecate Mexicali
Ciudad
Juarez
Nogales
Automotive
Autoparts
Aerospace
Electric-Electronics
Hermosillo
Chihuahua
Monclova
Reynosa
Monterrey
Saltillo
Los Mochis
Torreón
Culiacán
Nuevo Laredo
Tampico
Zacatecas
San Luis
Potosi
Aguascalientes
Leon
Guadalajara
Matamoros
Ramos
Arizpe
Silao
Querétaro
Ciudad
Sahagún
Estado de
México
Tlaxcala
Morelos
Puebla
Mexico is well positioned
COUNTRY
Brazil
Russia
India
China
B
R
I
C
Mexico Indonesia
M
I
South
Korea
S
Turkey
T
1. Macroeconomic environment
2. Open economy
3. Economic complexity
4. Total manufacturing cost
5. Domestic market
6. Demography
7. Workforce quality
8. Engineering graduates (per capita)
9. Democratic system
10. Human Development Index
Equal or above Mexico
Below Mexico, but close
Clearly under Mexico
Source: 1. Macroeconomic Environment: WEF The Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012, Macroeconomic Environment/ 2. Open Economy: Doing Business
2012, Ease of Doing Business/ 3. Economic Sophistication: The Atlas of Economic Complexity, Harvard University/ 4. Total Manufacturing Cost, Manufacturing
Outsourcing Cost Index, Alix Partners/ 5. Domestic Market: WEF The Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012, Domestic Market Size Index/ 6. Demographic
Bonus: UN World Population Prospects. The 2010 Revision. Forecast of total dependency rate in 2025 (population <15 & 65+ years) (15-64)/ 7. Labor availability and
quality of the DFI Benchmark, Automotive OEM, Skills, attitudes and productivity/ 8. Engineering Graduates (per capita): UNESCO Institute for Statistics,
International Monetary Fund. Engineering, manufacturing and construction graduates per capita 2009/ 9. Democratic System: The Economist, Democracy Index
12
2011/ 10. Human Development Index: UN, Human Development Index.
Renewable Energy
Market overview
Renewable Energy – installed capacity
2012 = 14,501 MW = 23% of total
Target is to increase to
35% in 2024
Sources: Energy Regulatory Commission CRE, Federal Electricity Commission CFE.
Renewable Energy - Potential
Energy
Potential
(MW)
Installed
capacity (MW)
Hydro
53,000
11,707
Wind
40,268
1,289
Geothermal
40,000
823
Biomass
83,500-119,498
645
Solar
24,300*
37**
Source: Ministry of Energy (SENER). February 2012.
*Estimated potential to 2030.
** Includes medium and small PV projects, mainly focused on rural and residential
RE Power stations in 2012
258 plants open and/or under construction
RE Power Stations
States with highest number of projects
Oaxaca = wind power
Veracruz = bioenergy
Source: CFE / CRE / Companies websites
* Projects in operation and under construction includes only hydroelectric <= 30 MW of installed capacity.
Total FDI in RE (2003 – 2012)
Year
Projects
Investment
[million USD *]
Jobs*
2012
4
1,441
306
Main
investors
were
Spain,
USA,
2011
5
1,853
880
2010Denmark,
4 France and
947 Israel226
2009
4
1,024
343
2008
3
912
177
2007
1
104
1,367
2006
1
311
95
2003
1
750
102
Total
22
7,343
3,496
Source: FDI Markets
*Data estimated from investment announcements.
Leading Companies
Source: AMDEE / Companies websites.
Associations and research centers
Associations
Center for Renewable
Energy Studies
Centro de Estudios de
las Energías
Renovables (CEENER)
Advanced Materials Research
Center
Center for Research and
Advanced Studies, IPN.
Centro de Investigación y de
Estudios Avanzados, IPN.
Mexican Center for Renewable
Energy
Centro Mexicano de Energías
Renovables
Energy Research Center,
UNAM
Centro de Investigación
en Energía UNAM
Electrical Research Institute
Center for Research and Technology in
Production of Biodiesel
Centro de Investigación y Tecnología en
Producción de Biodiesel
Solar Industry Manufacturing Companies
Mexico is the main supplier of PV modules in Latin America,
with an annual production capacity exceeding 312 MW
(just above Brazil, Chile and Argentina).
Company
Production capacity (annual)
Location
Jabil
Kyocera
Sanyo
ERDM Solar
Solartec
45 MW
150 MW
75 MW
Chihuahua, Chihuahua
Tijuana, Baja California
Monterrey, Nuevo Leon
San Andres Tuxtla. Veracruz
Irapuato, Guanajuato
Total
30 MW
12.5
312.5 MW
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance / Electronic Media
Increasing PV
opportunity
PV attractiveness for country
High
Low
Source: EPIA
2
>5kWh/m
Country investment attractiveness
High
Government policies
Framework
Interconnection agreements
The interconnection agreements allow the independent producers and small producers to sell their electricity to
the CFE through a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA).
Because the renewable power generation is not continuous, under de self-sufficiency scheme the producer can
accumulate energy surpluses in the “energy bank” of CFE up to a maximum period of 12 months to be used or sold
to a 85% of the Total Cost in the Short Term (CTCP, Costo Total de Corto Plazo).
Interconnection agreement
Source: CRE.
Framework elements
Power generation
• Energy Bank
• Preferential rate for energy transmission
Fiscal incentives
• Accelerated depreciation on fixed assets
• Zero tariff
Funds
• Fund for Energy Transition and the Sustainable Use of
Energy
• SENER-Conacyt Sectoral Energy Sustainability Fund
Framework elements
Programs
• Integral Energy Services (Servicios Integrales de Energía or SIE) for
Small Rural Communities in Mexico
• Program to Promote the Use of Solar Water Heaters in Mexico
2007-2012 (Programa para la Promoción de Calentadores Solares
de Agua en México 2007- 2012 or PROCALSOL)
Creditors
•
•
•
•
•
NAFINSA (Nacional Financiera)
BANOBRAS (Banco Nacional de Obras y Servicios Públicos, S.N.C.)
BANCOMEXT (Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior)
FIDE (Fideicomiso para el Ahorro de Energía Eléctrica)
FIRCO (Fideicomiso de Riesgo Compartido)
Bilateral Business Summit Series
122
Where to get information
http://na.cee-bc.org
http://wiki.promexico.de
http://www.promexico.gob.mx
http://mim.promexico.gob.mx