Daniel Loza - FTTH Modelo de Negocios
Transcripción
Daniel Loza - FTTH Modelo de Negocios
FTTH Modelo de Negocios Daniel Loza Junio 2010 Agenda 1. FTTH Council – LAM Chapter 2. Retos de los Operadores en despliegues de FTTx 3. Distribución de Costos en Proyectos de FTTx 4. Parámetros Clave que impactan en la decisión tecnológica 5. Escenarios para el despliegue de FTTx 1 FTTH Council LAM Chapter 3 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Global FTTH Council Organizations 104+ Members 214+ Members 60+ Members LAM CHAPTER Started April 09 4 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Latin America FTTH Market Opportunity Latin America is poised for rapid FTTH Growth: Market Size 390 million people Focused Market Segment 129 million Internet Users(33%) Market Penetration 12.4 million broadband Connections (3.3%) 5 5 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. LAM CHAPTER MISSION To educate, promote and support the adoption of FTTH and the resulting quality-of-life enhancements. 6 6 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Chapter Committees and Areas of Focus Regulatory (Regional) − Regional, Government Relations Technology (Cooperative) Finances (Regional) − Funding, financing, business planning (share experience) Marketing (Regional and cooperative) − FTTX, Chapter Outreach, Event, Intelligence, ROI, Share experience and successful cases (New rev. Sources, new services, New Economics) 7 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Join leaders and decision makers who will share success stories and lessons learned about the business elements needed to generate revenue with FTTH. Take home practical information and marketing strategies to make your network more profitable. • • The Fiber-Powered Pavilion Success Stories • Building FTTH Revenues • New Technologies • Advanced Network Design, Construction & Management • Finance & Regulatory Updates • The Home Networking Zone • The Expo Theater • 150 Exhibitors • 2,000 attendees •Spanish + Portuguese presentations www.ftthconference.com 8 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. 2 Operator Challenges in FTTx Rollouts A Services Perspective 9 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Operator Challenges in FTTx Rollouts A Services Perspective Cost TCO / CAPEX / OPEX Network design must fit the business model Optimum design depends on multi-variant parameters: complex design procedure Infrastructure implementation depends on industry typical risks & requires control of numerous subcontractors, permits Time-to-market Rapid fiber roll-out: secure right-of-ways Rapid introduction of broadband services: ensure integration Delivery of dedicated service bundles for segmented customer groups Future Proof Solution Complex technology mix (access, aggregation, IP core, NGN/IMS, Service Platforms) Robust, technological options with a smooth evolution from traditional services to future IP services Regulatory Environment Lack of clear guidelines from regulators (infrastructure sharing, vertical cabling) An End-to-End, Flexible, Scalable Multi-Service IP infrastructure 10 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. FTTx Network Rollout: Large scale commercial deployments require Experience Right-of-Ways and cost-effective network design • Efficient permit and license management improves the network deployment times and reduces rollout complexity while flexible PON design allows future evolution FTTH deployments in complex building environments • New passive elements & installation methods overcome technical barriers, provide deployment flexibility and maintain fiber performance in difficult building routes Multi-expertise Customer activation & relationship management • Multitask installation performed in both outside plant and indoor areas requires a new personnel profile and cost-effective customer visit management Multitasking 11 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. FTTx last mile challenges (I) FTTH deployments in complex building environments FTTx deployments in multi dwelling units present technical challenges related to the installation of infrastructure and fibers due to: multiple building structures and deployment scenarios limited cable path ways variations in hardware and power locations building owner preferences existing legacy copper connections aesthetic aspects New passive elements and installation methods are required to overcome technical barriers, provide deployment flexibility and maintain fiber performance in difficult building routes 12 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. FTTx last mile challenges (II) Customer activation & relationship management Multi-expertise Endcustomer services Customer premises equipment Fiber and copper handling Outside plant Drop cable installation Splicing and connectorization ONT installation, provisioning and testing Customer electronics connection and testing Multitasking Multitask installation performed both in the outside plant and indoor requires new personnel profile and cost effective customer visit management. 13 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Regulatory challenges Right-of-Ways and cost-effective network design The civil works market has few players, thus few options for operators - Civil works sector is vertically integrated & close to local authorities - Ducts & physical infra replication is economically & socially not feasible -Sharing Ducts & physical infrastructure is key - Access topology changes do not allow to apply legacy unbundling rules Cost effective and flexible in-building deployments require attention of non-telecom regulatory bodies to enhance creation of common fiber infrastructures and easy access for multiple service providers Local administrations may significantly contribute to the FTTx network deployment by facilitating access to public infrastructures and coordinating build up of common passive infrastructure Clear and certain regulatory environment promotes FTTx investments and technological progress 14 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. PON design and deployment challenges Right of ways – efficient permit and license management improves the network deployment times and reduces the roll-out complexity Splice enclosure/ Fiber Junction Distribution enclosure w/ couplers Design of cost effective future proof, flexible and extendable passive optical networks is key for long-term investments Drop enclosure Feeder network 144+ fiber cable CO Smooth evolution from traditional service formats (POTS and CATV) to future IP based services (VoIP, IP video, high speed Internet) for end-customer satisfaction Primary Distribution Network 48-144 fiber cable Secondary Distribution Network 12-48 fiber cable Drop cable 1-2 fiber cab le Maximum broadband coverage with reduced operational expense compared to present mode of operation for optimized OPEX Further evolution of passive elements like fibers, closures, splitters and cabinets to better match customer requirements and to improve the network performance Anticipate challenges early on to plan and design accordingly 15 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. FTTx Network Deployment Challenges and Answers Summary FTTx last mile CAPEX & OPEX optimization Time to market Technological challenge FTTx regulatory environment New passive elements for vertical and horizontal cabling Market regulations that enhance infrastructure sharing Leverage all existing infrastructure Market regulations that lower the market entrance boundaries Rapid fiber roll-out: secure right-of-ways Alternative fiber deployment techniques in sewers, tunnels and pipes New deployment techniques Creation of multitasking and multiexpertise personnel for customer activation Development of bend –tolerant fibers 16 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Passive optical network Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Optimized fiber planning in line with services demand forecast and anticipated take-up rate Complex technology mix (access, aggregation, IP core, NGN/IMS , Service Platforms): integrate via IPTC 3 Cost Distribution in FTTx Projects 17 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Full Scope Network Deployment Cost Distribution in FTTx Projects Full Scope Project Model Assumptions: • all figures for indicative purposes only ! On top for FTTH : Approx 20% for in-building connectivity Network Systems Hardware & Software Infrastructure Civil Works / Sites 50 % 30 % 20 % Infrastructure Design & Project Management On top for E2E: cost for Operation & Maintenance Focus on the deployment cost drivers : Outside Plant & In-Building are key to the network rollout business case 18 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Full Scope Network Deployment Infrastructure Cost Distribution in FTTx Projects OSP & Civil Works 50 % 30 % 20 % Engineering 20% 9% Plant Material (Fiber) 8% Splitters & Couplers Splice Enclosures 10% 53% The civil works part of any FTTx project is the major element on cost & time & risk requires detailed local insight: survey is highly ROW (right of way) related contains large labor portion 19 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Focus on the Financially Viable Cost per subscriber for GPON and P2P practical range for project target cost Impractical for P2P: > 20 000 HP / POP Variables: POP size and Subscriber take rate OSP design-rules (e.g. take rate, POP size) rule the business case 20 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Costo Total de Pertenencia Además de la inversión CAPEX, los costos OPEX durante la operación son parámetros que se deben de considerar en todas las fases de la red Scenario Variables Building Type: Single Family Residential Multi-Dwelling Unit Enterprise Applications IP-TV Voice, HSI PTP, Business Housing Density No of buildings/sq. km Loop length to CO/POP Construction Greenfield Overbuild Transport Facilities Fiber owned Leased Outside Plant Aerial Buried Conduit Drop Cat5 Fiber Splitting Levels One Two 21 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Technology GPON Cost Elements CAPEX OPEX Fiber Cables: Feeder Distribution Drop Civil Work (Feeder, Distribution): Structures/trenches Splicing, Installation OSP costs Cabinet, Splitters Fiber Management Point Patch Panel Power and Space Power node (Active) AC Floor space costs Equipment CO (shelf, packs, SFP) ODF ONT CPE Maintenance Planned Unplanned (testing; fault isolation; equipment repair) Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Centralized Network Operation Staffing Customer Care • Service activation / deactivation in CO • Customer service visit • Churn rate Other Operation Costs Searching for POP Provisioning activities Inventory updates Costo Total de Pertenencia Factores claves del CAPEX incluyen: Tipos de construcción (obras civiles e infraestructura compartida) Densidad de viviendas (cuidadas, suburbios, áreas rurales) Nivel de penetración (take rate) approx. CAPEX per subscriber ( € ) •7100 € •rural •x 3 •- 40 % •4000 € •2000 € approx 2300 € •city •1000 € 31 % 63 % take rate % Atención especial a la red de acometida – representa un 10% del CAPEX 22 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Costo Total de Pertenencia Factores claves del OPEX incluyen: Mantenimiento (programado y no programado) Equipo NOC centralizado Atención al Cliente (fallas, manejo de llamadas) Conexiones y desconexiones de los clientes (costo asociado – servicio/equipo) Consumo de potencia Costo de arrendamiento o mantenimiento de las propiedades Cuotas de conexión (si están arrendando líneas o derecho de vías) 23 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Costo Total de Pertenencia • Los principales elementos contribuyendo al costo de OPEX son los gastos relacionados al conexión/desconexión de abonados. Esfuerzos de publicidad para disminuir el churn deben ser considerados • CAPEX y OPEX por abonado puede reducir drásticamente con tasas de penetración por arriba del 30% • Cada situación varia según el ambiente – cálculos adaptados para información precisa de cada proyecto 24 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. 4 Key Parameters Impacting Technology Decisions Case Studies 25 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. FTTH Technologies Overview : GPON & Point-to-Point A basic comparison of the three FTTH Architectures. Central Office More concentrated Point -toPoint Access loop Home More distributed IP Efficient Outside Plant Splicing Ethernet switch Small street/pole cabinet No remote powering Less maintenance, truck rolls,… Cost-effective Fiber Feeder Active Ethernet IP Ethernet switch Ethernet switch Few fibers in feeder section Smaller duct sizes, Less RoW,… CO consolidation Best of Both Worlds GPON IP PON OLT 26 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Optical splitter Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Passive OSP CO scalability & Consol. (20+ km) Fiber Cost & Management (P-to-MP) Case Study 1: GPON vs P2P for a dense urban city 1M de Hogares Pasados en 100 Km². MDU promedio de 16HH 8 CO y 200 FFPs para divisores ópticos. P2P requiere 80 nuevos PoPs Se asume que las obras civiles son existente en su mayoría. 27 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Case Study 1: CAPEX/Sub vs. Take-rate GPON es 20% mas económico que P2P @ TR de 20%. El ahorro en positivo en todos los rangos de tasa de penetración hasta 100% La arquitectura distribuida es hasta 10% mas costo-efectiva que centralizada 28 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Case Study 1: CAPEX Tornado Analysis La mayor porción del CAPEX/sub esta en la Distribución de Fibra y cableado de MDU. Los CPEs son el siguiente mayor componente del costo seguidos por el Switch Ethernet y la OLT. Los otros elementos de red no contribuyen significativamente en el costo 29 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Case Study 1: OPEX per sub vs. Take-rate Los resultados del modelo de OPEX muestran un ahorro de 55-60% en comparación a una red P2P en un amplio rango de tasas de penetración 30 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Case Study 1: OPEX Sensitivity Analysis Los tres parámetros con mayor incidencia en el OPEX son: 1) Derechos de Via, 2) Costos de Energía (Kwh) y 3) Costos de Manteniemiento de Fibra 31 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Case Study 2: GPON vs AE for a dense urban city Operador con despliegue de DSLAMs para proveer ADSL/VDSL que desea migrar a FTTH Tipo de Subscriptores similar al caso de estudio 1 4500 gabinetes, 250-300 usuarios por gabinete 32 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Case Study 2: GPON, AE CAPEX/Sub vs. Take-rate El Capex de AE es ligeramente menor que GPON con arquitectura distibuida, sin embargo no se aprecia un ganador claro. 33 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Case Study 2: GPON vs. AE CAPEX (20% TR) La solución AE tiene costo 0 para los PoP ya que los gabinetes de OSP son reutilizados y los costos restantes se equilibran. Por lo tanto el CAPEX no es un diferenciador clave en este caso. 34 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Case Study 2: GPON, AE OPEX/Sub vs. Take-rate El ahorro en OPEX para una arquitectura distribuida se incrementa a una mayor tasa de penetración y está em el rango de 5 a 58% de ahorros anuales. 35 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. 5 Escenarios para el despliegue de FTTH 36 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Smart Grid / Smart Metering La medición inteligente permite medir el consumo, tensión y potencia en las diferentes áreas de la red (residenciales, industriales, comerciales y subestaciones) y para diferentes aplicaciones (tarificación, optimización de la demanda, ...). 37 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. LTE Backhaul I/O-ONT GPON lines GPON OLT METRO AGGREGATION Eth 2G/3G/LTE Base Station RNC / BSC / SeGW CORE splitter BITS Clock Reference E1 / Synch E GPON clock “NTR” Synch E / 1588v2 bien adaptado a los requisitos de ancho de banda de LTE la solución más rentable a través de fibra permite aprovechar el despliegue de FTTH actual (áreas urbanas) continuidad del servicio y un impacto limitado sobre el backhaul existente 38 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. Desarrollo Inmobiliario Modelo de Resguardo diseñado como parte integral del Conjunto Residencial Infraestructura previamente diseñada para permitir una fácil y rápida instalación. Ingresos por servicios adicionales a los servicios de triple play. 39 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved. www.alcatel-lucent.com www.alcatel-lucent.com 40 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010 Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved.