The bicentennial of a failure

UNIVERSIDAD CENTRAL DE VENEZUELA
FACULTY OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SCIENCES
POST-GRADUATED COMISSION
Professor GIUSEPPE DE CORSO
The Bicentennial of a Failure. The Venezuelan Economic
Growth from the Late Colonial Age To the Bolivarian
Revolution. A Quantitative History
AbstractAn inform published by ECLAC in 2003 (Economic Commission for Latin America
and the Caribbean) under the title: El Desarrollo económico de America Latina en épocas
de globalización- Una agenda de investigación, called on the Institution to design and
implement a new research agenda directed toward the reconstruction of long economic
series to better understand the past performance of Latin America economy as a whole to
make a correct analysis of the present day challenges. Therefore going beyond and
complementing the short-term concern with development with a longer view on economic
progress. The mentioned paper remember us that it was Raul Prebish who even before
Simon Kuznets, made an effort to measured economic progress on the basis of an
homogenous and standardized method that he used for Mexico, Brazil , Argentina and
Chile. The aim of this paper is to fulfill this gap for Venezuela, profiting from the fact that
we are in the middle of the year of the Bicentennial Independence Commemorations. For
that purpose we have built a GDP and population historical series starting in 1783 and
ending in 2009, employing for the colonial period a statistical method that regresses
foreign commerce on the relation between the national product and exports - imports for
the period between 1830-1870, before the impact created by the new economic policies
implemented by the Autocratic Government of Guzman Blanco with its emphasis on
progress. For the series 1830-1949 we employed an expenditure approach to reconstruct
the product of Venezuela by using as departing point a dynamic consumer basket to get
household/ personal consumption, then adding up government expenditures, net exports
and private investment. We link the series from 1783 to 1949 with the Central Bank of
Venezuela macroeconomic information for the interval 1950-2009, thus obtaining the GDP
and real income series from the late colonial era to the Bolivarian revolution.
That is a long economic series of 226 years. The series submitted in the paper is
expressed in current prices, 1984 constant bolivars and 1990 international dollars. The
paper includes two Price indexes for the period 1830-1949, a General Price Index from
1830 to 1949 and Food and Beverage Index for 1830-1949, a deflator for the period 17832009, an economic balance of the independence war, a critical review of the partial series
suggested by professors Asdrubal Baptista and Tomas Enrique Carrillo Batalla, an
quantitative performance evaluation of the Venezuelan economy from the late eighteen
century to the present , the prices of the principal products consume by the Venezuelan
people during the 19TH century and early 20Th and data, energy consumption , material
wealth, and cross country comparisons with the largest Latin American economies ( Brazil,
Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Argentina). The method proposed and employed- in this case for
Venezuela- could be applied with great advantages for others Latin America countries
lacking enough data to build satisfactory long economic series using the income or output
approaches. We were able to identify six economic phases for Venezuela: The first one
from 1783 to 1797 of economic expansion, followed by stagnation, from 1800 to 1810,
1
when the colonial economy reached her frontier production boundary. During the war of
independence a marked contraction of the GDP followed by a fast recuperation. The
fourth, from 1830 to 1924, describe as a stationary economy. The fifth, from 1920 to 1958,
of oil driven development, characterize by a high velocity growth, the sixth, from 1958 to
1978 define as a mature oil economy with slow growth, and the last one from 1979 ,
designated as an era of stagnation and relative decline vis a vis the rest of Latin America.
Very Preliminary English Version
2
INDEX
Introduction --------------------------------------------------- 4
Wealth and Venezuelans ---------------------------------
8
Review of Previous Studies ------------------------------ 19
Methodology Series ---------------------------------------- 38
Population ---------------------------------------------------- 46
Food Consumption and Manufacture ------------------ 53
Measuring the Colonial Economy 1783-1829 ------- 65
The Century of Coffee 1830-1925 --------------------- 92
Time of Oil----------------------------------------------------- 117
Bibliography -------------------------------------------------- 136
Statistical annexes ----------------------------------------- 145
Epoch images from newspapers -----------------------
213
3
Introduction
Present research is a continuation of a previous working paper where we
present an historical series of the Venezuelan Gross Domestic Product (GDP)1 ;
we incorporate new sections, taking advantage of the Bicentennial celebration of
the Independence of Venezuela to offer an overview of the economy through the
reconstruction of its national accounts. We made some corrections that although
didn’t change the trend for the period 1830-1935, has produced an improvement
of the series by making use of
new data on levels of private gross fixed
investment, recently obtained from new information from imported capital and
intermediate goods. We have added an estimate for the period 1783-1829, so the
series includes the last 28 years of the colonial period until 1811, 19 years of the
First and Second Republic, the Independence War and the Great Colombia period.
Also, we include 180 years from the effective birth of the Republic of Venezuela,
covering the period from 1830 to 2009. That is, the GDP series presented contains
a total 226 years. This is the first comprehensive GDP series built for Venezuela
and maybe one of the longest in Latin America.
Venezuela has not attracted much attention in the academic world, but we
believe this is a thought-provoking country and a good case to understand not only
economic but also societal failure and institutional collapse in less developed
countries with a large potential platform for growth. The Venezuelan historical
experience has many topics worth revising: mantuanos (landowners during colonial
time) were among the first social group in South America to mature a nationalist
conscious and drastically break the colonial bond with the mother country, Spain.
Perhaps one of the first authentic popular militaristic caudillo was born in the
middle of the Venezuelan Independence war, José Tomàs Boves. The Venezuelan
economy was essentially a pre-modern tropical agricultural one until the arrival of
oil exploitation during the dictatorship of Juan Vicente Gomez. Oil wealth produced
not just an intense transformation in the material conditions of the country but also
offered, challenging the natural resources curse theory, a fertile ground for an
experiment in democracy and occidentalization. We sharply disagree with today’s
1
In previous paper we included an annex we have ignored in this paper due to space reasons. Author's Note
4
opinions that the Venezuelan democratic experiment was a complete failure from
the beginning until the end as it was predestined to downfall. It had a golden age
from 1958 to 1973. The country, during that time was governed with prudence and
pragmatism, a pluralistic and open Institutional framework was developing slowly ,
of course with problems and limits, but without great risks, not even the pro-Fidel
Castro guerrilla in the sixties, which was indeed easily defeated, thanks to the
massive popular consensus democracy had. Even many of the guerrilla leaders
became later on integrated in the democratic institutional framework. Middle class
growth was simply impressive, by 1973 close to 60% of Venezuelan population
belonged to that social group. The GDP per capita of Venezuela was higher or very
close to that of southern European countries like Italy and Spain until the late
seventies. Poverty was relative mild if compare with neighborhood countries. The
economy was run with caution and successfully, low inflation, good rates of growth,
a reasonable income distribution between capital and work, a moderate fiscal
policy, well implemented and effective social programs in education and health
were the norm. Venezuela was a safe sanctuary for persecuted Latin Americans by
the Military Regimes that controlled great part of the Continent. The First oil boom
and the Presidency of Carlos Andres Perez from 1973 to 1978 altered the country’s
course; it became drunk with oil and never recuperated its previous equilibrium,
setting off a long decline that has caused the comeback of crude caudillismo
vested in pro- Cuban socialism and taken the country to the brink of civil war and
bankruptcy. The Petrostate was born during the first Administration of Perez. So a
second look to the Venezuelan socio- economic laboratory could be challenging. .
We chose to work an economic topic for two reasons. The first, the majority
of the editorial proposals for the Bicentennial celebration, both from government
and private institutions focused their attention overwhelmingly to the so called “the
unchanged story”, borrowing the title Ines Quintero used for her book2. The closest
to a "historiographical" debate was the one that occurred around the involvement
of mixed race militias (“milicias pardas”) and popular sectors in the conspiracy
against Captain General Vicente Emparan and the creation of the Junta of Caracas
2
Quintero Inés. El relato invariable: Independencia, mito y nación
5
following the events of April 19, 1810, in contrast to the already known role play by
the white “mantuanos”, even so, behind
the apocryphal debate
there was
concealed the enduring conflict, at least since the mid-eighteenth century,
for
prestige, power and wealth between mestizos and white Venezuelans; amongst
both the occidental and non-occidental alms of the country. This conflict run like an
underground spring in the social structure of the country, and under some historical
circumstances overflows with unusual force.
The second reason is that for more than a decade we have accumulated and
organized data and literature for certain neighboring economies and for Venezuela
to try to estimate the national’s accounts with relatively more solid foundation of
those made so far. Unfortunately due to the limitations that currently live our
academic centers, as the result of the unscrupulous practices made by the
Government; we have limited ourselves to this brief paper. We hope that better
times will allow us to bring this project to its conclusion end and thus offer an
alternative reading about the economic history of Venezuela, different from the
dependency scheme that still hegemonies in our academic centers.
Our goal, as can be inferred from the title of the essay, is to try to estimate and
analyze the Venezuelan economic growth over nearly four centuries, which means,
since the end of eighteenth century - the final stage of the colony- until the first
decade of the XXI century. Several themes will be the focus of our attention: 1)
build a long series of gross domestic product (GDP) and of per capita income
(GDP per capita) from 1783 to 2009 expressed in bolivars and dollars. 2) Also, we
intend to contextualize the behavior of the Venezuelan economy in the western
hemisphere, comparing its performance with other nations in Latin America. This is
what our colleagues in the Anglo-Saxon world, known by the term Cross Country
Comparisons. 3) Last but not least, is to provide to the interested historians in the
Venezuelan economy with some figures and bibliographic sources that may be
useful for future research. It is worth noting that in recent years the Gross Domestic
Product
3
3
as a measure of the flow of aggregate wealth has received a real
Frey S. Bruno y Stutzer Alois. Economia e Felicità. Il Sole 24 Ore
6
firestorm of criticism. In fact, it doesn´t seem very reasonable to reduce the variety
and intangible wealth of community life to a frivolous accounting operation. But
equally we are aware, so far, that the GDP per capita is the measure that best
describes both the material welfare and the economic development of society.
7
Wealth and Venezuelans
To start our study is unavoidable to discuss first the prevailing view in
Venezuela regarding to the idea of wealth, because this notion decisively
influences the performance in the long term of the Venezuelan economy. We
cannot forget to make a brief commentary on this topic in this paper, living today
the Republic of Venezuela a complex political, social and economic situation. We
want to clarify that this reflection on wealth conception and its relation with
Venezuelans is made in an historical context of strong polarization in the country of
origin of its author, and therefore this brief consideration is a vision that may be the
subjective expression of the historical moment, so all errors and omissions are our
sole responsibility. In relation to the belief on the production of wealth, which
apparently dominates Venezuela, we are bound to be short and simplifying, as we
do not intended to describe in detail the argument from the socio-anthropological
point of view or enter into the analysis of the relationship between abundant natural
resources and political instability, so we will just make a remark, guided by
observation and experience, the result a of intimate thoughts on this argument. We
will, therefore, describe very briefly the Venezuelan´s idea of prosperity and wealth,
both at individual and national level and how that idea influences the social,
economic and political dynamic4.
The feelings or sensations of a community or/and an individual are by definition
subjective and relative, depending from factors not necessarily rational or
verifiable, and may be the result of a particular state of mind or a shared worldview.
In this regard, a strange observer would be shocked by the Venezuelan case.
Recently 64% of respondents from that country, at a GALLUP survey5, considered
its personal situation as prosper. Countries leading the classification by the study
are: Denmark, Sweden, Canada, Australia and Finland. That is, the Venezuelans
positioned their country between the five or six countries with a greater sense of
4
Two books are essential for understanding Venezuela: “El Estado Mágico” by Fernando Coronil and
“Viajeros de las Indias” by Fernando Herrera Luque. See references.
5
. Refers to the Gallup World Poll on the perception of wellbeing, 2010 in which Venezuelans ranked in the
top six countries in the world with Denmark, Sweden, Canada, Australia and Finland.
http:// www.gallup.com/ poll/147167/high-wellbeing-eludes-masses-countries-worldwide.aspx
8
prosperity on the planet. While for an unprepared observer of the events in
Venezuela, this result may be surprising and leading to wrong conclusions, this is
not so for those who known the anthropological and idiosyncratic characteristics of
the nation. It is very complicated to understand and explain how can Venezuelans
feel themselves as members of an opulent society with a deficit of residential
housing of around 78 per thousand inhabitants, wages among the lowest in the
region when it is measured by the dollar price of the free market, one of the world's
highest inflation, and no growth in real income per capita from the distant 1977.
The reason could be placed either on obvious unlimited optimism or the relevance
of the myth of "natural" wealth and particularly the oil as an illusion, as a magical
connection between society and economy and in the building of the representation
of prosperity in the collective imagination.
In Venezuela wealth is a phenomenon understood as spontaneous, flows
abundantly from the bowels of the earth, is not the product of systematic work; is
an exogenous event, independent of human activity and is everywhere to be freely
appropriate and consumed by all. The State acts as mediator between the fertility
of the subsoil and the society, distributing that income. The Venezuelan state is in
fact a mighty Landlord State. Consequently, the real dilemma of national economic
policy is not growth or development, but a fair distribution of abundant natural
wealth. Following the previous proposition, there is an historical association and
continuity between the story of the Land of Grace (“Tierra de Gracia”), where the
Spanish conquistador arrived to exploit its riches, the legend of The Dorado and
the modern perception of oil as an unlimited source of welfare, real or perceived.
This perspective about prosperity is complemented by a manifest sense of equality
among the population, that since the nineteenth century has been a major political
and ideological flag in Venezuela and that distinguishes it from other countries in
the region6.
Although this patent inclination to social equality is obvious and even
obsessive in everyday language, is not an organized sociopolitical project, however
6
Ramírez Ribes, María. Patrones y Valores Culturales, Mentalidad y Hábitos en la Sociedad Venezolana.
Unpublished. Presented at the Rome Club, Caracas Chapter.Apps.ucab.edu.ve without date.
9
it serves to mobilize the population around whom better decodes it, as happened
during the Federal War in the nineteenth century, in the case of Democratic Action
(“Acción Democrática”, a left center political party) in the forties of the twentieth
century and now with the Bolivarian Revolution. It is rather a share sentiment in
different social strata of the Venezuelan population, but solidly grounded in the
popular sectors. Its origins probably go back to the colonial period and can be
explained by the social antagonism between mestizo (“pardos”) and white and
aspiration of the first to emulate the white mantuanaje (from “mantuanos”, the land
and slave owners creole inhabitants in the Venezuelan colonial society) in prestige,
affluence and power. In fact, the conception of wealth as a fortuitous phenomenon
and a radical egalitarianism sentiment as genealogy of social relationships are the
opposite sides of the same coin that continually define and mold, with fluctuations,
the direction of the economy and long-term politics in Venezuela.
Conceiving nature as the only source of wealth implies that the members of
the society, without distinction of social classes and regardless of their contribution,
considered themselves as a carrier of an inherent right, immanent, to participate
proportionately in the enjoyment of that heritage. It is common to hear in popular
protests, the phrase "I have the right to get a house or a better salary because I am
Venezuelan". Likewise, businesses are permanently demanding the granting of
preferential dollars, product of the oil income, for the simple reason that those
dollars come from the oil, a common own good, and therefore they do not have to
generate them in the international market through the exportation of its production.
It is sufficient to make a submission to a bureaucratic government agency. That is,
what belongs to everybody really belongs to nobody, is there simply to be
consumed or appropriate, so in Venezuela, the idea of property is very fragile in all
layers of society. If any individual, social class or ethnic group consumes more
than the rest, the origin can only be found in corruption, looting, exploitation or
simply the influence or connection the person or social group have into the
mechanism of production and
distribution of wealth, i.e. the State. Therefore,
social conflict in Venezuela tend to worsen when the prices of the “fruits of the
nature" (coffee in the nineteenth century, oil in the twentieth century) show a
10
propensity to decrease in international markets. At these junctures the contraction
of income is seen, by most in society, as the result of unlawful and unfair
distribution of natural wealth and not as the logical result of the structural
weaknesses of an economic system organized on weak grounds. The collapse of
liberal democracy and the arrival of the Bolivarian revolution is the unequivocal
consequence of the long economic crisis that began in 1977 and deepened after
the 1983 devaluation of the currency. The absence of economic growth
7
in those
years is the crucial reason why liberal democracy lost the political consensus in
both popular and middle class sectors. The fall in oil revenues, the institutional
paralysis, the external debt crisis, and the huge expatriation of capital and the
consequent devaluation of the currency ended the progress, confidence and,
above all, the distribution of natural wealth, which from the distant twenties
(twentieth century) was characteristic of the socio-economic development in
Venezuela. It is precisely under these circumstances that reemerged stronger than
ever the old egalitarian reaction, and on its behalf is justify the destruction of
freedom and the oppression by the majority. It is within this scenario that
resurfaces social and racial hatred and antagonism, which plunges rooted in the
very formation of Venezuelan nationality and is latent in the collective psyche. The
Bolivarian revolution is basically the political and social expression of that conflict
whose origins can be traced back in the Colonial period8.
The Bolivarian revolution, regardless of other factors, has managed to keep
alive a substantial popular consensus in the low-income socio-economic sectors
(which is source of its electoral capital), thanks to high oil prices and the
distribution of rent among the people. Therein lays the authentic magnetism of the
President, on the foundation of a solid clientelistic bond between the “Caudillo”President and the mestizo Venezuelans. On one hand, there are the popular
sectors eager to gain economic and social prestige, without employing much effort
but just exhibiting their devotion to the Caudillo, and on the other there is a
7
. See The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth by Benjamin Friedman, where he argues the
relationship between democracy and economic growth.
8
See Izard Miguel. Miedo a la Revolución. Capitulo 6 Conflicto de Intereses y Enfrentamientos de Clase y
Casta
11
repeatedly promise from the leader to offer a better life for his followers in
exchange for loyalty. It is no coincidence that each electoral process is preceded
by the release of new social “missions” (free donations, like scholarships), all
named with romantic denominations that seek to strengthen the emotional
relationship throughout the material one, between the President and the people.
Donations and hands out of many kind or programs are designed to increase
consumption as, for example, a sort of credit card called "The good life card"
issued by the State Bicentenario National Bank, to support popular consumption. In
the Bolivarian Venezuela, the electoral consensus or the cynical indifference are
purchased with oil revenues. Of course, the fraction of income used to support the
political consensus of the majority is minimal compared with that which is
conquered by the elite in power, like contractors and high bureaucrats in the
service of a political regime and the business orbiting around institutions, as the
currency exchange control system, which is the quintessential bureaucratic
apparatus used to distribute petrodollars. Consciousness, ideology, community and
civic values, socialism are sometimes empty or simply incomprehensible speeches
for the clientela, whose real interest and desire are to get something from the
State, such as an academic degree, scholarships, free housing, soft credits,
preferential dollars procurement ,etc. Venezuelans are a very down to earth people
and not the heroic conscious follower of an epic revolution as the Bolivarian
propaganda depicts them.
This should not surprise and disturb the reader, because Venezuela is a
country with a structurally parasitic economy, otherwise denominated rent seeking,
living and breathing on international oil revenues9. The articulation of the
relationship between the Leader-President and the common people has extremely
complex sociological and historical tones. For example, women of the popular
sectors, very often family´s heads, perceive the President as the absent partner,
husband or father. The evangelical churches, which are widespread in low income
areas, consider him their financial sponsor, the authority placed by "God" in the
9
See the work by Omar Ovalles. Movimiento de Cuadro de Vida en la Venezuela Urbana. Revista Eure N°37,
Volume 13. Electronic versión, november 1986. Universidad Pontificia Católica de Chile. In this paper he
argues the parasite character of Venezuelan society
12
control of the country to build a Christian republic based on equality and material
wealth for all. The President is recognized by lower social strata as ones of them,
that is an underprivileged mestizo. Thus race matters in Venezuelan politics more
than Venezuelans want to acknowledge. These observations we made, deserve a
detailed study, which is not our goal in this paper. However, they translated into an
economic policy whose basic course is the distribution of income at the expense of
growth and the productive sectors, to patronage economically that part of the
population, mostly mestizos, unable to produce a surplus, as were unethically and
cynically judged by the late General Alberto Mueller Rojas, one of the ideologue of
Bolivarian socialism, in his book “Epoca de Revolucion” en Venezuela”. Given the
shortcoming of oil income to sustain indefinitely the distribution policy, due to
fluctuations of prices in the international market, the complementary alternatives
are expropriation, debt and inflation, originated the last one by a chronic monetary
expansion to sustaining the viability of the system and the politics of consensus.
The three conditions are integral components of the political economy of the
Bolivarian Revolution, far more than in the liberal democratic past, and are not the
result of a contingent situation; are the substitute’s gears of the political - economic
mechanism to prolong distribution, when oil income decreases or is simply
insufficient to pay the operative political costs. In fact the Bolivarian State is radical
version of the preceded liberal democracy which was unable, in the final analysis,
to really evolve toward a pluralistic Institutional arrangement. This kind of economic
distributing policy is initially sustained by the oil revenue, but depends on other
financial sources when oil revenues fail.
Egalitarianism linked to the idea of wealth detached from a solid work ethic
and based on nature; cancel merit, virtue, and the incentive to work. However,
multiply the institutional disorder, weakens property rights, cooperation, genuine
social solidarity and fair competition, but encourages economic parasitism, fosters
resentment, crime, envy and social and racial conflict, and therefore hinders longterm the economic growth. When nature fails to provide with sufficient resources to
please the various social demands, the political dispute turns violent and may even
lead to revolutions and popular uprisings.
13
Furthermore, the Venezuelan egalitarianism is a fertile ground to homogenize
the public discourse and thus flatten society. Expressing a critical view about the
national myths in public creates surprise, symbolic rejection of the detractor and
even figurative exclusion from the national community. It is unthinkable that a
Venezuelan historian may question the epic grandeur of Independence and the
role of Bolivar in a direct and open way or for that matter the ideology of mestizaje.
That is the equivalent of a sacrilege. Venezuela's history taught in the levels of
primary, intermediate and superior school are confounded with the biography of
Simón Bolivar and is based on a chauvinistic rhetoric inspired on the War of
Independence.
In consequence, the Bolivarian revolution is not an unusual event in
Venezuelan history, is the partial return to old times, is rooted in history, its
background is in the old militaristic and charismatic caudillo tradition, revolutions,
popular revolts and uprisings of the nineteenth and early decades of the twentieth
century. It is the reoccurrence of the deep-rooted struggle between pardos and
white and not a new social inclusive socialist experiment of the twentieth century or
the ideological expression of Bolivar’s cult10. These are merely ideological
disguises use by the new power elite to legitimize their pretenses and political
control. However, the Bolivarian revolution is not a straightforward replica of the
nineteenth century Venezuela’s social movements. It is more than that, is the old
Venezuelan political traditions intermingled with the economic arrangements of the
Petrostate. Thus it is difficult to describe the political form in Venezuela; there are
many labels that could be used. Plebiscitary dictatorship? Tyranny of the majority?
Patrimonial autocracy? or Participatory democracy? And all of them contain some
effective arguments to explain it, so the political dynamics Venezuela is an
extraordinary puzzle. However, in our opinion, the political and economic
arrangement is similar, with certain local variants, to the one Jeffrey Winter
10
As well explains Roberto Lopez Sanchez in “El protagonismo popular en la historia de Venezuela” (The
popular role in the history of Venezuela) Department of Human Sciences, Faculty of Sciences. University of
Zulia. Simón Bolivar would be a bitter enemy of Chavez because he would represent the much feared by the
actual government of the pardocracia.
14
describes in his book “Oligarchy” as Sultanistic Oligarchy
11
, although we will treat
this topic briefly in the section dedicated on the economy in the twentieth century.
Exceptional were the forty years of Liberal Democracy, started in 1959, shortly
after the brief radical cycle of the democratic triennium from 1945 to 1948 that with
all its limits and eventually debacle represented a historical parenthesis in the
Caribbean country. A cohort of civilian politicians from diverse social backgrounds,
known as the generation of 28
12
sought to build a democratic political system of
western nature, based on legality and popular legitimacy and anchored in a broad
political consensus among social actors in order to introduce basic rules of the
game and an impersonal institutional architecture. The fundamental idea was to
get away once and for all from the personalistic rule that predominated in
Venezuela since the foundation of the Republic in 1830. It is no coincidence that
the constitution promulgated in 1960 was the longest in force in the political history
of Venezuela.
Perhaps, with the advantage of the time gone, the Venezuelan democratic
experiment had also a marked inclusiveness character not only in the social field,
but also in the racial arena. Liberal democracy in Venezuela followed some sociopolitical patterns of the old yellow liberalism (“Liberalismo Amarillo”, is a
denomination for a period of the Venezuelan history elapsing from 1870 and 1899).
The idea of progress without socio-ethnic barriers was an essential part of the
scheme implemented, with fluctuations, and not without contradictions, in the
essay of modernization of the country during the period 1870-1888. Like the liberal
democracy in the twentieth century, the “yellow liberalism” concluded its days in a
deep economic, political and institutional crisis, been finally ousted by the personal
rule of the delirious General Cipriano Castro.
The words of Don Romulo Betancourt: “The people in abstract are a reality that
demagogues use and abuse”. In the modern societies, the people are organized in
11
. See Jeffrey Winter Work: Oligarchy, especially chapter 4.
La generación del 28 refers to a student’s movement oppose to the regime of de Juan Vicente Gómez.
From that generation emerge Rómulo Betancourt, Jovito Villalba, Andrés Eloy Blanco, Raúl Leoni, José Pio
Tamayo etc. Betancourt y Leoni were the first two democratic Presidents of Venezuela after the fall of
Pérez Jiménez I 1958. N del Autor
12
15
political parties, syndical unions, organized economic groups, trade unions”13, in
his historical time, illuminated the idea of national community and politics with a
capital P, which guided democracy at its best. These ideas contrast with the
concept used today by those in power in Venezuela. José Roberto Duque, an
opinion journalist and historian linked to the Bolivarian revolution, defines
impeccably what the concept on people that guides today politics: "If you stick to
the definition of “people” as a poor, exploited, excluded or segregated human
being, the first thing it must be understood, is that by 1810, “the people” was about
90% of the population. There were included the mines and plantations slaves, the
servitude, the storekeepers and the small traders. The latter were mostly from the
Canary Island (“canarios”), the firsts were blacks and mestizos. They weren´t all
Venezuelans, but there was a condition or characteristic that brought them
together in a same social group: the deep contempt for them by the owners of the
country (white creoles, mantuanos, and peninsular Spaniard) because of their
origin or status… Those human beings (storekeepers, canaries, slaves) united by
misery, slavery and hated by the powerful were separated shortly after and torn by
a trick that still works: proselytism, demagoguery, external problems…"14 This
notion of “class , race and people” superimposed , because eventually the
“peripheral whites” ( canarios) for various reasons joined the flags of the reaction,
is not very original and reflects the endemic confrontation for wealth and prestige
among mestizos and whites that agitates the social history of Venezuela since the
colonial times and still is at the core of political and social polarization triggered by
the Bolivarian revolution.
We cannot deny that these socio-ethnic divisions have a high degree of
historical true in Venezuela and Latin America. The wide disparity in income
distribution in Latin America has deep historical roots and spreads both along the
social class structure as in the racial domain. What is striking is that an important
group of those who now wield such ideas are themselves the product of social
policies of the liberal democracy. They now seem to ignore and refute, against the
13
Quote taken from “Pensar, Plantar, Curar la Democracia”, by Rómulo Betancourt Selection of papers.
Publications not for sale by Fundación Rómulo Betancourt
14
Taken from the Bicentennial special insert published in the Journal Ciudad CSS, July 5th, 2011.
16
abundant historical evidence, that the social policies of the liberal democracy had
notable successes, at least between 1960 and 1978, contributing to promote a high
level of social mobility in society, regardless of the color of the skin or the
socioeconomic status. The President and his own family are the best examples of
democratic social engineering.
The illusion of natural wealth is also a central component of national identity
and it has a prominent place in the mythology pantheon15. Of course, in that
pantheon of national myths, the place of honor is reserved for to life and work of
Simon Bolivar. As an example, when the President of Venezuela said that his fate
and the one of the Bolivarian Revolution is to save the world from the capitalism or
to free the peoples of Latin America, he is spontaneous and his words are not
necessarily part of a manipulative speech behind which shelter unmentionable
goals. Simply it is the result of culture, mentality, education and information that
prevails in the Venezuelan society and therefore expresses a particularly view of
themselves and of the world, product of a kind of magical thinking that prevails but
still does not dominates in Venezuela. The President, as many of his followers,
really imagine that Venezuela has a predestined mission, is an exceptional
country, immensely rich, the land of grace, the cradle of heroes with an historic
mission of liberation, which began in the war of Independence and has not yet
concluded.
16
Following that logic the war of Independence is not yet over and the
presence of Bolivar is still leading the crusade for freedom. The result is a frozen
history in the age of national heroes, before that the ignominious of foreign
occupation by Spain, after that disappointment and fiasco. So history becomes a
myth, a manipulative tool, but also an obstacle to real change, it is not just a field of
study in the academic world. Bolivar manifestations are everywhere; his words are
always todays catch words.
The magical relationship between nature, wealth and society produces the
incongruous view of prosperity that was polled by the Gallup group, although is in
15
See the Works of Ana Teresa Torres. La herencia de la Tribu y el mexicano Jorge Volpi. El insomnio de
Bolívar.
16
The author of this work heard the President on TV, in a one of those “unexpected call” to the program “La
Hojilla”, on the air at the public channel. The President expressed his annoyance that Venezuela had not
been invited to join the G-20.
17
the foreign political field where narcissism, mythomania and delusions of grandeur
are best articulated. The foreign policy is flamboyant and bombastic, for a modest
country such as Venezuela, with little or no actual geopolitical weight in the world,
and with a capacity of influence the destiny of Latin America more illusory than
real, in the long term. The spending in international aid of different kinds reaches 3
to 4 billion dollars a year, undermining the prospects of national economic growth
and also causing bizarre situations, as the attempts to subsidize public ground
transportation in one of the richest cities in the world, such as London, or to grant
financial assistance to poor families in New York, subsidizing fuel for heating,
while Venezuelan families have trouble to adequately get food supply. Of course,
not everything is inclined favorably to the forces of the old chauvinistic and
militaristic Venezuela; the democratic experiment, despite its ultimate failure, left
deep social and educational prints in part of the population, regardless of its
political inclination, skin color or social class. This left as a legacy a civil society
essentially democratic and open, very aware of the limitations and real possibilities
of the country. This is an historical cycle in full development, and we cannot predict
or anticipated its end.
.
18
Review of Previous Studies
In this section we are going to review the few works17
related with the
reconstruction of the Venezuela’s national accounts. To our knowledge there are
only two studies that have tried with mixed results18. The first, is “Bases
Cuantitativas de la Economia Venezolana” by Professor Asdrubal Baptista, a
compendium of data on the Venezuelan economy; it has been published in three
different editions, the last two by the Polar Foundation and “Tomos Cuentas
Nacionales de Venezuela 1800-1936” coordinated by Professor Tomas Enrique
Batalla and published by the Central Bank of Venezuela.
The work of Professor Baptista has been widely distributed and rightly praised,
but we must emphasize that its scope is not related to the reconstruction of a
historical national accounting framework. Instead the aim is to understand the role
of oil revenues in the national accounts of Venezuela and the so-called “Theory of
Oil Rentiers Capitalism”. The book was originally published in 1986, it has had
numerous revisions and did not offer a unique series for the entire period 18302002 but rather two separate series one for 1830-1920
in
constant 1936
Bolivares, and the second for 1920-2002, expressed in current and 1984 Bolivares
In fact, in different articles written by Professor Baptista,
which show graphs
referring to the development of the Venezuelan economy since 1830 to recent
years, there are significant differences, but unfortunately they don’t include the
original database
19
. Therefore, we were forced to assume the task of transforming
the proposed figures from the work “Quantitative Basis of the Venezuelan
Economy “into a single series from 1830 to 2002.
.
17
Two studies have attempted to build long time series: Asdrubal Baptista: “ Bases Cuantitativas de la
Economia Venezolana1830-2002” Polar Foundation and Tomás Enrique Batalla Cuentas Nacionales de
Venezuela 1830-1936, BCV.
18
There are some Works that include estimation of GDP for diverse period like Domingo Alberto Rangel:
Capital y Desarrollo and Salazar Carrillo Oil and Development in Venezuela..
19
This is the case of thr article published by Cendes volumen 22 numero 060 sept-diciembre del 2005,
Capitalismo Rentístico Elementos Cuantitativos de la Economía Venezolana del profesor Baptista.
19
Of the many interesting data presented by Professor Baptista we were
interested in a few, published in the latest edition of his work, covering the period
from 1830 to 2002. These are: 1) GDP measured at 1936 prices from 1830 to 1920
2) GDP at current and constant prices of 1984, for the database covering the
period 1920-2002. 3) The general index of prices, period 1830-1920, baseline
1913. 5) The GDP deflator baseline 1984 for 1920-2002. 6) The general index of
prices, period 1830-2002, and finally 7) the population series. With these data we
can reconstruct or rather construct, using simple techniques, a historical series of
GDP and income per capita, covering the period 1830-2002 according to the data
proposed in Bases Cuantitativas. The operations we perform to make the
calculations are quite simple and require no further explanation, they only included
the link of the general price index based 1913 and the GDP deflator base 1984, the
transformation of constant prices to current prices for the period 1830-1936, the
calculation of the gross domestic product, real income per capita in Bolivares of
1984 and in international dollars of 1990. The results of this calculation have a
slight variation with the original data from Baptista´s, for the period 1920-2002,
resulting from procedure of joining various baselines. We present data and a brief
discussion of it.
:
Table 1
DEFLACTOR
GDP prices
Per capita
Per Capita
100=1984
Millions BS 1984
BS of 1984
Dollars 1990
75,53
8,84
854,84
971,34
292,01
90,98
92,09
8,81
9,06
1.032,26
1.016,13
1.153,28
1.116,93
346,71
335,78
924.141
95,95
9,44
1.016,13
1.099,54
330,55
938.249
952.089
104,45
117,59
9,96
10,72
1.048,39
1.096,77
1.117,39
1.151,97
335,91
346,31
1836
965.673
151,38
9,98
1.516,13
1.570,02
471,99
1837
979.017
138,83
9,36
1.483,87
1.515,67
455,65
1838
992.136
147,53
10,28
1.435,48
1.446,86
434,96
1839
1.005.043
178,67
10,45
1.709,68
1.701,10
511,39
POP
GDP Current
Millions Bs
1830
880.059
1831
1832
895.060
909.750
1833
1834
1835
Years
20
1840
1841
1.017.753
1.030.281
174,97
192,92
10,33
9,72
1.693,55
1.983,87
1.664,01
1.925,56
500,24
578,87
1842
1.042.640
201,50
9,32
2.161,29
2.072,90
623,17
1843
1844
1.054.845
1.066.911
154,45
167,89
8,71
8,53
1.774,19
1.967,74
1.681,95
1.844,34
505,64
554,45
1845
1.078.852
190,37
9,15
2.080,65
1.928,57
579,78
1846
1847
1.090.682
1.102.417
205,22
153,79
9,36
8,91
2.193,55
1.725,81
2.011,17
1.565,48
604,61
470,62
1848
1.114.069
168,91
9,11
1.854,84
1.664,92
500,52
1849
1850
1.125.654
1.137.185
161,63
192,28
8,87
8,34
1.822,58
2.306,45
1.619,13
2.028,21
486,75
609,73
1851
1.148.678
209,93
8,98
2.338,71
2.036,00
612,07
1852
1853
1.160.147
1.171.606
173,52
234,86
9,12
9,97
1.903,23
2.354,84
1.640,50
2.009,92
493,18
604,23
1854
1.183.070
247,73
10,04
2.467,74
2.085,88
627,07
1855
1.194.552
281,20
10,26
2.741,94
2.295,37
690,04
1856
1.206.068
257,69
10,58
2.435,48
2.019,36
607,07
1857
1858
1.217.632
1.229.257
235,89
277,01
11,08
10,47
2.129,03
2.645,16
1.748,50
2.151,84
525,64
646,90
1859
1.240.960
216,82
10,75
2.016,13
1.624,65
488,41
1860
1861
1.252.753
1.264.651
239,90
280,16
10,62
10,16
2.258,06
2.758,06
1.802,48
2.180,89
541,87
655,63
1862
1.276.669
235,89
10,02
2.354,84
1.844,52
554,51
1863
1864
1.288.822
1.301.123
235,49
311,86
9,87
12,98
2.387,10
2.403,23
1.852,15
1.847,04
556,80
555,27
1865
1.313.586
317,84
11,52
2.758,06
2.099,65
631,21
1866
1867
1.326.277
1.339.060
244,81
234,54
10,26
10,85
2.387,10
2.161,29
1.799,85
1.614,04
541,08
485,22
1868
1.352.099
210,46
10,87
1.935,48
1.431,47
430,33
1869
1870
1.365.359
1.378.853
218,59
256,55
10,04
11,36
2.177,42
2.258,06
1.594,76
1.637,64
479,42
492,32
1871
1.392.587
257,58
12,88
2.000,00
1.436,18
431,75
1872
1873
1.406.604
1.420.889
352,21
350,03
14,75
13,65
2.387,10
2.564,52
1.697,06
1.804,87
510,18
542,59
1874
1.435.467
449,38
13,93
3.225,81
2.247,22
675,57
1875
1876
1.450.352
1.465.558
419,14
395,86
13,61
11,42
3.080,65
3.467,74
2.124,07
2.366,16
638,55
711,33
1877
1.481.100
386,66
13,17
2.935,48
1.981,96
595,83
1878
1879
1.496.992
1.513.249
320,19
286,71
11,82
10,58
2.709,68
2.709,68
1.810,08
1.790,64
544,16
538,31
1880
1.529.884
332,56
9,87
3.370,97
2.203,41
662,40
1881
1882
1.546.912
1.564.349
399,17
489,64
10,06
10,40
3.967,74
4.709,68
2.564,94
3.010,63
771,09
905,07
21
1883
1884
1.582.207
1.600.502
417,82
423,76
10,32
10,03
4.048,39
4.225,81
2.558,70
2.640,30
769,21
793,74
1885
1.619.247
433,86
9,57
4.532,26
2.798,99
841,45
1886
1887
1.638.458
1.658.149
436,95
493,37
10,22
10,44
4.274,19
4.725,81
2.608,67
2.850,05
784,23
856,80
1888
1.678.334
511,89
10,44
4.903,23
2.921,48
878,27
1889
1890
1.699.027
1.720.243
530,26
619,64
11,14
12,20
4.758,06
5.080,65
2.800,46
2.953,45
841,89
887,88
1891
1.741.996
540,59
11,72
4.612,90
2.648,06
796,07
1892
1893
1.764.301
1.787.172
457,49
594,61
11,44
10,62
4.000,00
5.596,77
2.267,19
3.131,64
681,57
941,45
1894
1.810.623
515,65
10,66
4.838,71
2.672,40
803,39
1895
1896
1.834.669
1.859.325
609,78
479,17
10,90
9,58
5.596,77
5.000,00
3.050,56
2.689,15
917,08
808,43
1897
1.884.604
419,10
9,12
4.596,77
2.439,12
733,26
1898
1899
1.910.521
1.937.091
482,52
397,95
9,29
7,69
5.193,55
5.177,42
2.718,39
2.672,78
817,22
803,50
1900
1.964.327
447,73
8,95
5.000,00
2.545,40
765,21
1901
1902
1.992.245
2.020.858
430,91
427,26
8,76
7,98
4.919,35
5.354,84
2.469,25
2.649,78
742,32
796,59
1903
2.050.182
446,94
7,72
5.790,32
2.824,30
849,05
1904
1905
2.080.229
2.111.016
455,93
464,64
8,08
8,33
5.645,16
5.580,65
2.713,72
2.643,58
815,81
794,73
1906
2.142.556
507,17
9,74
5.209,68
2.431,52
730,98
1907
1908
2.174.863
2.207.953
490,23
483,81
9,41
8,69
5.209,68
5.564,52
2.395,40
2.520,21
720,12
757,64
1909
2.241.838
516,86
8,98
5.758,06
2.568,46
772,14
1910
1911
2.276.535
2.312.057
602,63
707,94
10,13
11,11
5.951,61
6.370,97
2.614,33
2.755,54
785,93
828,38
1912
2.348.418
766,20
11,64
6.580,65
2.802,16
842,40
1913
1914
2.385.635
2.423.718
823,57
669,97
10,84
10,08
7.596,77
6.645,16
3.184,38
2.741,72
957,30
824,23
1915
2.462.684
758,74
11,07
6.854,84
2.783,48
836,78
1916
1917
2.502.548
2.543.324
785,31
834,69
12,14
11,06
6.467,74
7.548,39
2.584,46
2.967,92
776,95
892,23
1918
2.585.025
1.076,63
14,39
7.483,87
2.895,09
870,34
1919
1920
2.627.667
2.671.264
1.509,39
1.200,00
21,56
16,50
7.000,00
7.272,73
2.663,96
2.722,58
800,85
818,48
1921
2.715.830
1.029,00
13,90
7.402,88
2.725,83
819,45
1922
1923
2.761.379
2.807.926
1.016,00
1.139,00
13,00
12,30
7.815,38
9.260,16
2.830,25
3.297,87
850,84
991,42
1924
2.855.486
1.339,00
11,70
11.444,44
4.007,88
1.204,87
1925
2.904.073
1.671,00
10,90
15.330,28
5.278,89
1.586,97
22
1926
1927
2.953.700
3.004.384
2.077,00
2.000,00
10,60
9,00
19.594,34
22.222,22
6.633,83
7.396,60
1.994,29
2.223,60
1928
3.056.137
2.119,00
7,80
27.166,67
8.889,22
2.672,32
1929
1930
3.108.975
3.162.911
2.505,00
2.492,00
8,00
8,10
31.312,50
30.765,43
10.071,65
9.726,94
3.027,79
2.924,16
1931
3.217.960
1.841,00
7,00
26.300,00
8.172,88
2.456,97
1932
1933
3.274.138
3.331.457
1.974,00
1.743,00
7,90
6,40
24.987,34
27.234,38
7.631,73
8.174,91
2.294,29
2.457,58
1934
3.389.932
1.802,00
5,90
30.542,37
9.009,73
2.708,55
1935
1936
3.449.578
3.540.095
1.972,00
2.158,00
6,00
6,20
32.866,67
34.806,45
9.527,74
9.832,07
2.864,28
2.955,77
1937
3.591.583
2.403,00
5,60
42.910,71
11.947,58
3.591,74
1938
1939
3.646.945
3.706.567
2.613,00
2.694,00
5,60
5,20
46.660,71
51.807,69
12.794,47
13.977,27
3.846,34
4.201,92
1940
3.773.939
2.699,00
5,90
45.745,76
12.121,49
3.644,02
1941
1942
3.844.313
3.916.233
2.742,00
2.572,00
5,20
6,30
52.730,77
40.825,40
13.716,57
10.424,66
4.123,54
3.133,91
1943
3.995.661
2.809,00
6,60
42.560,61
10.651,71
3.202,17
1944
1945
4.084.812
4.192.101
3.585,00
4.343,00
5,90
6,10
60.762,71
71.196,72
14.875,28
16.983,54
4.471,88
5.105,68
1946
4.314.916
5.837,00
6,80
85.838,24
19.893,37
5.980,45
1947
1948
4.454.141
4.635.305
8.367,00
11.028,00
8,30
9,80
100.807,23
112.530,61
22.632,25
24.276,85
6.803,82
7.298,23
1949
4.836.925
11.503,00
9,90
116.191,92
24.021,86
7.221,57
1950
1951
5.034.838
5.231.971
11.689,00
12.894,00
9,90
9,10
118.070,71
141.692,31
23.450,75
27.082,01
7.049,88
8.141,53
1952
5.429.142
14.179,00
9,60
147.697,92
27.204,65
8.178,40
1953
1954
5.649.949
5.895.063
15.068,00
16.726,00
10,20
10,30
147.725,49
162.388,35
26.146,34
27.546,50
7.860,24
8.281,17
1955
6.155.951
18.347,00
10,40
176.413,46
28.657,39
8.615,13
1956
1957
6.423.021
6.688.886
20.494,00
24.827,00
10,30
11,10
198.970,87
223.666,67
30.977,77
33.438,55
9.312,69
10.052,46
1958
6.947.238
25.734,00
11,30
227.734,51
32.780,58
9.854,66
1959
1960
7.212.780
7.496.400
26.444,00
26.006,00
11,10
11,30
238.234,23
230.141,59
33.029,46
30.700,28
9.929,48
9.229,27
1961
7.788.304
26.381,00
11,80
223.567,80
28.705,58
8.629,62
1962
1963
8.084.642
8.381.843
28.019,00
32.035,00
12,70
12,90
220.622,05
248.333,33
27.289,03
29.627,53
8.203,76
8.906,78
1964
8.687.983
36.504,00
13,00
280.800,00
32.320,51
9.716,35
1965
1966
9.004.249
9.325.019
40.597,00
42.228,00
13,40
13,80
302.962,69
306.000,00
33.646,64
32.814,95
10.115,02
9.864,99
1967
9.661.844
44.946,00
13,90
323.352,52
33.466,96
10.061,00
1968
10.002.336
55.401,00
15,90
348.433,96
34.835,26
10.472,35
23
1969
1970
10.333.670
10.664.157
57.543,00
63.813,00
16,00
16,80
359.643,75
379.839,29
34.803,10
35.618,31
10.462,68
10.707,76
1971
10.996.620
70.267,00
18,30
383.972,68
34.917,34
10.497,02
1972
1973
11.342.076
11.695.689
75.951,00
90.475,00
19,80
22,00
383.590,91
411.250,00
33.820,17
35.162,53
10.167,19
10.570,74
1974
12.070.817
132.398,00
32,00
413.743,75
34.276,37
10.304,33
1975
1976
12.484.738
12.903.659
145.002,00
169.191,00
34,60
37,00
419.080,92
457.272,97
33.567,46
35.437,47
10.091,22
10.653,39
1977
13.314.878
196.286,00
40,60
483.463,05
36.309,99
10.915,69
1978
1979
13.762.122
14.233.092
214.893,00
255.198,00
43,90
52,20
489.505,69
488.885,06
35.569,06
34.348,48
10.692,95
10.326,01
1980
14.711.214
307.653,00
65,90
466.848,25
31.734,18
9.540,09
1981
1982
15.208.329
15.670.879
341.105,00
347.655,00
74,60
77,20
457.245,31
450.330,31
30.065,45
28.736,76
9.038,43
8.638,99
1983
16.099.393
348.271,00
82,50
422.146,67
26.221,28
7.882,77
1984
1985
16.525.234
16.940.715
407.290,00
450.824,00
100,00
109,20
407.290,00
412.842,49
24.646,55
24.369,84
7.409,37
7.326,18
1986
17.359.767
494.155,00
112,60
438.858,79
25.280,22
7.599,87
1987
1988
17.789.014
18.225.100
681.858,00
878.369,00
148,60
180,30
458.854,64
487.170,83
25.794,27
26.730,76
7.754,40
8.035,94
1989
18.661.841
1.512.025,00
335,40
450.812,46
24.156,91
7.262,17
1990
1991
19.101.503
19.550.984
2.307.708,00
3.076.152,00
481,00
584,00
479.772,97
526.738,36
25.117,03
26.941,78
7.550,81
8.099,37
1992
20.004.011
4.128.685,00
737,40
559.897,61
27.989,27
8.414,27
1993
1994
20.451.879
20.904.101
5.448.733,00
8.669.397,00
976,10
1.590,50
558.214,63
545.073,69
27.294,05
26.074,96
8.205,27
7.838,79
1995
21.362.034
13.680.090,00
2.414,30
566.627,59
26.524,98
7.974,07
1996
1997
21.824.755
22.276.381
29.431.862,00
43.338.598,00
5.204,50
7.204,70
565.507,96
601.532,31
25.911,31
27.003,14
7.789,59
8.117,82
1998
22.726.765
52.473.951,00
8.714,90
602.117,65
26.493,77
7.964,69
1999
2000
23.193.040
23.658.762
62.630.294,00
82.516.350,00
11.067,60
14.124,80
565.888,67
584.194,82
24.399,07
24.692,54
7.334,97
7.423,19
2001
24.124.274
91.403.689,00
15.221,60
600.486,74
24.891,39
7.482,97
2002
24.589.822
110.874.767,00
20.263,10
547.175,74
22.252,12
6.689,54
Sources: Bases Cuantitativas de la Economía Venezolana 1830-2002 y cálculos propios
24
Graph 1
GDP per capita 1830-2002 BS of 1984
40.000,00
35.000,00
30.000,00
25.000,00
20.000,00
15.000,00
10.000,00
5.000,00
1830
1835
1840
1845
1850
1855
1860
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
0,00
Sources: Grafico 1 basado en datos de Baptista: Bases Cuantitativas
Table 2 GDP 1920-2002 prices 1984.
Años
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
Columna1
7.272,73
7.402,88
7.815,38
9.260,16
11.444,44
15.330,28
19.594,34
22.222,22
27.166,67
31.312,50
30.765,43
26.300,00
24.987,34
27.234,38
30.542,37
32.866,67
34.806,45
42.910,71
46.660,71
Columna2
7.261,00
7.444,00
7.849,00
9.272,00
11.488,00
15.347,00
19.642,00
22.433,00
27.585,00
31.732,00
31.170,00
26.579,00
25.152,00
27.893,00
30.842,00
33.289,00
35.308,00
42.992,00
47.338,00
25
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
51.807,69
45.745,76
52.730,77
40.825,40
42.560,61
60.762,71
71.196,72
85.838,24
100.807,23
112.530,61
116.191,92
118.070,71
141.692,31
147.697,92
147.725,49
162.388,35
176.413,46
198.970,87
223.666,67
227.734,51
238.234,23
230.141,59
223.567,80
220.622,05
248.333,33
280.800,00
302.962,69
306.000,00
323.352,52
348.433,96
359.643,75
379.839,29
383.972,68
383.590,91
411.250,00
413.743,75
419.080,92
457.272,97
483.463,05
489.505,69
488.885,06
466.848,25
457.245,31
52.120,00
46.611,00
53.154,00
41.766,00
43.195,00
61.386,00
72.143,00
86.848,00
101.784,00
113.101,00
116.978,00
119.559,00
142.073,00
148.167,00
149.081,00
162.550,00
177.817,00
200.137,00
224.841,00
227.699,00
239.699,00
231.316,00
223.129,00
220.892,00
247.860,00
280.491,00
303.110,00
305.024,00
321.726,00
347.201,00
357.862,00
379.239,00
382.535,00
383.252,00
410.121,00
413.606,00
418.898,00
457.170,00
483.280,00
489.228,00
488.901,00
466.892,00
457.412,00
26
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
450.330,31
422.146,67
407.290,00
412.842,49
438.858,79
458.854,64
487.170,83
450.812,46
479.772,97
526.738,36
559.897,61
558.214,63
545.073,69
566.627,59
565.507,96
601.532,31
602.117,65
565.888,67
584.194,82
600.486,74
547.175,74
450.086,00
422.366,00
407.290,00
412.810,00
439.005,00
458.990,00
487.139,00
450.765,00
479.755,00
526.712,00
559.927,00
558.202,00
545.087,00
566.627,00
565.506,00
601.534,00
602.119,00
565.888,00
584.195,00
600.488,00
547.175,00
Fuentes: The data in column 1 was elaborated using price indexes; deflator and current
prices from Baptista work, column 2 are Baptista’s presented in table I-3 pag. 58-69.
27
Descriptive statistics for Table 2
Columna1
Columna2
Media
Error típico
Mediana
Moda
Desviación estándar
Varianza de la muestra
Curtosis
Coeficiente de asimetría
Rango
Mínimo
Máximo
Suma
Cuenta
Mayor (1)
Menor(1)
Nivel de confianza (95,0%)
264211,7873
22449,3714
230141,5929
#N/D
204523,5070
41829864934,9622
-1,5067
0,1677
594844,9218
7272,7273
602117,6491
21929578,3481
83,0000
602117,6491
7272,7273
44658,9511
Media
Error típico
Mediana
Moda
Desviación estándar
Varianza de la muestra
Curtosis
Coeficiente de asimetría
Rango
Mínimo
Máximo
Suma
Cuenta
Mayor (1)
Menor(1)
Nivel de confianza (95,0%)
264363,0843
22420,5575
231316,0000
#N/D
204261,0003
41722556228,3465
-1,5033
0,1684
594858,0000
7261,0000
602119,0000
21942136,0000
83,0000
602119,0000
7261,0000
44601,63117
Correlación datos del Cuadro 2
Columna 1
Columna 2
Columna 1
1
0,999996088
Columna 2
1
28
Graph 2
GDP prices 1984 from 1920 to 2002
700.000,00
600.000,00
500.000,00
400.000,00
calculos GDC
300.000,00
Baptista
200.000,00
100.000,00
1920
1923
1926
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
0,00
Fuentes GDC is the estimation based on Bases Cuantitativas. Baptista refers to the data in
table I-3 of Baptista work.
The data we have offered above summarize with clarity the estimate Venezuela´s
GDP and its evolution according to data from the work of Baptista. As shown in
Tables 1 and 2 and in Figures 1 and 2 and in the descriptive analysis of the
statistics,
the calculations
we made for the period 1830-2002, using the
information from the book "Bases Cuantitativas" did not change the trends in the
evolution of the Venezuela´s economy proposed by Professor Baptista.
We believe that the estimates values of Professor Baptista, from 1830 to 195758, have the trouble of being grounded on the behavior of the external sector,
primarily in the performance of exports. According to our analysis the series
fluctuates according to the fluctuation of exports and their price index. This makes
the product an echo of the oscillation of exports and not the economy as a whole
which includes other components. In this sense, as explained in the methodology
section, for the Venezuelan case, giving the very pronounced statistical gaps in
indexes of production of goods and services, we consider that the population’s
consumption is the most effective variable to use for a consistent reconstruction of
the national accounts and not the movements of exports. In the series we have
29
developed, based on the study by Professor Baptista, for example, Venezuelan
real income between 1830 and 1900 grew 2.62 times, a considerable amount, that
would put Venezuela among the countries with higher economic growth in the
western hemisphere in the post-independence period, as an example the real
income of the United States in the same period grew 3.24 times and Chile, one of
the most successful Latin American economies of the nineteenth century, along
with Argentina, achieved a growth of the real income of 3.3 times between 1830 1900. In fact the correlation coefficient between exports and GDP per capita in the
Baptista´s series for the period 1830-1900 is 0.8779, showing a high relationship;
in the case of series we propose is 0.655, a moderate to marked relationship, an
accurate association, in our opinion, for the real behavior of the Venezuelan
economy during that period . As discussed below, the growth of the Venezuela´s
GDP per capita in this period was rather close to zero if not slightly negative. In our
opinion, the work of Professor Baptista underestimates the size of Venezuela's
GDP, because it is based on the fluctuations of foreign trade and overestimates the
growth rate for the nineteenth century. However, for the twentieth century, the data
overestimate the flow of aggregate wealth generated by the Venezuelan economy.
We believe that real income and domestic product was lower, although its growth
rate is very close to what can be drawn from the data of Professor Baptista.
However, we do not rule out, and is a perfectly valid possibility, that considering the
oil sector or in general mining resources and its international rent as a unique form
of economy structure, its measurement also should has a specific character, not
necessarily subject to standardized rules applicable to
conventional economic
contexts. In this case, is likely that the size of countries' GDP in an oil country and
real income per capita are greater than those reflected in national accounting
dominated by international convention20. The problem is how to measure this
particularity in an acceptable, accepted and objective way.
20
Michael Tanzer :Towards Correctly Measuring the Role of the Oil Sector in Economic Growth, December
16th 2009 http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/5011
30
Finally, we present an interesting table and a graphic that compare the
estimation made by Professor Hector Valecillos Toro in his important book
“Crecimiento Económico, Mercado del Trabajo y Pobreza en Venezuela. La
experiencia venezolana del siglo XX “ published in 2007, with the one of Professor
Baptista and ours, for the period 1936-1959. In the table it can be observe the
various estimation; columns 1 is from Valecillos, column 2 is a calculation done by
the author's
and based on data both from population and GDP taken from
Professor Valecillos. The Columns 3 and 4 are ours and columns 5 and 6
correspond to the estimates made using Professor Baptista data, including his
series of population and product. Columns 1, 3, 5 are the GDP data, while columns
2, 4, 6 represent real income per inhabitant. In the accompanying graph (n 3) can
be seen that there is a significant degree of overlap between our estimates and
those of Professor Valecillos; this is not in the case of data from Baptista from
which it differ abundantly.
Table 3
años
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
GDP and income per capita 1936-1959 Bolivares prices 1984
Columna 1
26.203
27.592
30.682
32.155
34.631
34.700
33.188
32.505
36.763
44.814
51.312
55.674
60.517
69.716
77.106
86.248
92.527
98.245
107.696
117.249
129.631
Columna2
7.562
7.775
8.436
8.639
9.085
8.859
8.219
7.810
8.575
10.141
11.265
11.848
12.483
13.926
14.905
16.121
16.687
17.080
18.100
19.018
20.245
Columna 3
24.061
24.664
27.982
30.326
32.787
32.677
29.254
33.399
37.305
46.863
55.378
55.650
68.080
70.945
78.885
88.089
94.505
100.349
110.013
119.781
132.432
Columna 4
7.152
7.125
7.863
8.294
8.735
8.486
7.334
8.093
8.747
10.643
12.194
11.893
14.132
14.316
15.487
16.555
17.034
17.376
18.328
19.228
20.376
Columna 5
35.308
42.992
47.338
52.120
46.611
53.154
41.766
43.195
61.386
72.143
86.848
101.784
113.101
116.978
119.559
142.073
148.167
149.081
162.550
177.817
200.137
Columna 6
9.832
11.948
12.794
13.977
12.121
13.717
10.425
10.652
14.875
16.984
19.893
22.632
24.277
24.022
23.451
27.082
27.205
26.146
27.546
28.657
30.978
31
1957
1958
1959
144.682
146.592
158.114
21.698
21.117
21.896
147.809
149.774
161.557
21.835
21.277
22.104
224.841
227.699
239.699
33.439
32.781
33.029
Sources : Calculos Propios, Baptista Bases Cuantitativas y Valecillos El Mercado del
Trabajo en Venezuela
Grafico 3
GDP per capita Bolivares 1984
1936-1959
40.000
35.000
30.000
25.000
Valecillos
20.000
GDC
Baptista
15.000
10.000
5.000
1959
1958
1957
1956
1955
1954
1953
1952
1951
1950
1949
1948
1947
1946
1945
1944
1943
1942
1941
1940
1939
1938
1937
1936
0
Sources: Cálculos Propios y datos de Baptista y Valecillos
We believe that the information presented is self-explanatory and need not delve
into further details. However, it is important to clarify that the data bases from the
32
book, Bases Cuantitativas are of great relevance and we will use them to explain
the behavior of Venezuelan economy in the twentieth century.
The second study we will comment is one led by Professor Tomás Enrique
Batalla“Cuentas Nacionales de Venezuela 1800-1936”” published by the Central
Bank of Venezuela. This is a massive work of more than two thousand pages in 6
volumes with large statistical appendices and a misprint for the period 1873-1914.
We do not claim to scrutinize all the work but rather discuss the pros and cons of it
succinctly. From the theoretical methodology viewpoint this work has an initial
orientation we consider appropriate. It attempts to calculate the GDP based on the
consumption of the population (expense), using for this purpose the well-known
considerations made in 1839 by Agustín Codazzi on consumption in Venezuela, to
which him gradually added other economic aggregates to obtain an estimate GDP
at current prices for the period 1800-1935.
Unfortunately the method is extremely confusing, and also the findings of the
geographer Agustin Codazzi about Venezuela´s consumption in 1839 are not
necessarily correct. Subsequently, and given the errors appearing in the volume
dedicated to the period 1874-1914, the author made changes in the methodology
(which are not explained) and calculated the consumption based on a fixed
percentage of the average minimum wage in public administration. In short,
disorder stands out in the criteria used, overriding any goal of the publication,
which was the reconstruction of Venezuelan National Accounts for the period
1800-1935. On the other hand, he didn’t build a chained price index for the
complete period, and this unable us to try to deflate the current prices. Also, the
author constructed partial index, which otherwise are wrongly calculated.
The usefulness of the work lies rather in the statistics of prices of various food
products, export products, manufacturing, import, etc. Most of them, as we verified,
were obtained from newspapers, brochures and flyers from the nineteenth century,
which is the most important source to track the prices in that century. The second
advantage is the breakdown by items of imports and exports over the analyzed
period, based on primary sources, and finally a well-balanced presentation and
discussion of the economic, fiscal and legal issues under the various governments.
33
Below, we are presenting the series of GDP at current prices proposed in the
“Cuentas Nacionales de Venezuela” (Table 4) and in graph n-3, we are showing
the data in constant terms for the period 1831-1935, deflated with an index initially
proposed by us in a previous working paper. As can be inferred from graph, the
present work is no useful to understand the evolution of Venezuelan national
accounts history, but is very helpful for understanding the behavior of prices, of
public sector wages and of exports and imports.
Table 4:
Years
Bolívares
Bolívares
1800
139.181.590
1831
262.987.680
1862
492.731.400
1893
1.608.511.485
1801
146.078.530
1832
273.538.490
1863
494.258.520
1894
1.620.687.620
1802
169.710.565
1833
281.709.075
1864
496.287.910
1895
1.616.941.385
1803
150.454.080
1834
290.150.810
1865
502.059.585
1896
1.634.241.189
1804
153.093.115
1835
302.629.410
1866
503.941.815
1897
1.654.181.822
1805
155.810.605
1836
307.747.670
1867
504.797.100
1898
1.659.315.149
1806
158.733.560
1837
321.882.890
1868
504.680.640
1899
1.689.865.149
1807
181.927.210
1838
319.969.545
1869
508.281.980
1900
1.689.991.946
1808
159.689.320
1839
329.553.105
1870
509.734.600
1901
1.753.706.520
1809
151.056.350
1840
343.159.275
1871
513.960.585
1902
1.812.091.431
1810
152.432.060
1841
353.270.425
1872
517.686.225
1903
1.854.067.481
1811
126.240.255
1842
359.278.060
1873
521.066.305
1904
1.927.243.976
1812
123.957.780
1843
364.478.335
1874
545.366.100
1905
1.984.201.881
1813
127.373.055
1844
368.450.550
1875
595.278.296
1906
1.925.670.557
1814
140.095.605
1845
376.830.595
1876
681.890.228
1907
1.871.518.742
1815
117.791.910
1846
387.914.160
1877
739.704.560
1908
1.817.415.071
1816
138.044.200
1847
398.958.115
1878
809.283.447
1909
1.760.118.501
1817
143.485.880
1848
397.551.545
1879
871.226.347
1910
1.709.058.593
1818
131.527.400
1849
399.411.450
1880
957.341.428
1911
1.774.054.085
1819
122.973.510
1850
416.441.700
1881
1.047.619.282
1912
1.837.491.672
1820
122.301.060
1851
430.487.410
1882
1.154.933.654
1913
1.894.707.437
1821
129.273.500
1852
440.470.900
1883
1.272.008.051
1914
1.950.385.652
1822
130.958.555
1853
442.549.310
1884
1.371.602.338
1915
2.080.701.939
1823
138.343.685
1854
447.826.235
1885
1.485.842.283
1916
2.109.073.418
1824
130.338.885
1855
453.286.935
1886
1.740.889.931
1917
2.120.783.168
1825
134.608.220
1856
457.067.220
1887
1.704.122.764
1918
2.091.265.247
1826
127.141.435
1857
465.980.000
1888
1.665.297.403
1919
2.162.871.134
1827
135.337.525
1858
470.219.045
1889
1.626.228.576
1920
2.196.928.599
1828
133.971.735
1859
477.667.915
1890
1.587.844.938
1921
2.160.298.086
1829
149.455.985
1860
482.079.130
1891
1.597.888.255
1922
2.313.606.166
1830
143.488.360
1861
485.682.895
1892
1.616.468.150
1923
2.400.611.645
1924
2.507.996.626
1925
2.653.583.008
1926
2.841.549.884
34
1927
2.867.391.205
1928
2.992.270.768
1929
3.012.263.701
1930
3.095.567.901
1931
3.064.944.465
1932
3.087.872.598
1933
3.021.104.757
1934
3.043.076.918
1935
3.024.392.449
Source: Carrillo Batalla Cuentas nacionales de Venezuela.
Graph 3
GDP per Capita Bolivares prices 1984 from 1831 to1935
18.000,00
16.000,00
14.000,00
12.000,00
10.000,00
8.000,00
6.000,00
4.000,00
2.000,00
0,00
1831
1835
1839
1843
1847
1851
1855
1859
1863
1867
1871
1875
1879
1883
1887
1891
1895
1899
1903
1907
1911
1915
1919
1923
1927
1931
1935
Serie1
Sources: Carrillo Batalla Cuentas Nacionales de Venezuela and deflator from De Corso
To conclude this section is appropriate to make some reflections on the
development of statistics, storage and disclosure of data in Venezuela and about
the methodology of research and diffusion of Economic History. First, is obvious
the absence of historical statistics produced and updated by the official institutions
as the National Institute of Statistics and the Central Bank of Venezuela. The latter
has limited to publish some good volumes of Statistics of Venezuela from 1950 to
1999 and Bank´s bulletins from 1941 until 1957, without investigating the behavior
of the Venezuelan economy before that time. In summary, the statistics in
Venezuela is squalid, opaque and lately also unreliable. This reality contrasts with
35
the rest of Latin America where the data processing has improved substantially. It
is enough to visit the websites of the various statistics entities from countries like
Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Uruguay and so on, to find dense
digital libraries with historical series of economic aggregates, fiscal accounts, social
and population statistics, some of which start at the Colonial or at early twentieth
century. We should make clear that it was not always so; since the times of
Guzmán Blanco in the nineteenth century with the creation of the National Bureau
of Statistics of the Ministry of Development (Fomento), until the mid-eighties in the
last century, the evolution of statistics in Venezuela were updated with the best
Institutions .But today the lag of Venezuela is dramatic. We can use a couple of
examples to make our point; the nearby Colombia produces regional or
departmental accounts with series since 1990, and satellites accounts to four
sectors: Culture, Environment, Tourism, and Social Security. In Venezuela are on
project the creations of a system of regional accounts. Also a National Consumer
Price Index began to be estimated, with great publicity as if it were a world record,
in 2007. That is, since 1950 the Consumer Price Index produced by the Central
Bank referred only to price changes for the Metropolitan Area of Caracas.
Important and useful as this index was for measuring the movement of prices was
in our opinion insufficient to measure the national reality.
Regarding the study of the Economic History, the picture is bleak. The study of
Venezuelan Economic History is excessively dominated by a mixture of the Marxist
view and the dependency theory. We do not want to deny that these visions are
thought-provoking and maybe appropriate for understanding the Latin American
reality. Our critic points to the monothematic character, the a priori rejection of any
method that does not meet the requirements of these visions and the marked lack
of interest for the use of data, like if the growth or the developments are not
realities objectively measurable. The New Economic History and the use of
econometric techniques and/or statistics applied to economic history was not
welcomed or widely accepted in Venezuelan academics, their techniques are
virtually unknown to teachers and specialists in Venezuela. Also, Institutional
Economic History had a limited development and it is only recently that some
36
studies have begun to use it as a reference. It is no coincidence that Venezuela, as
an object of study, is absent from the interesting and innovative studies on the
Economic History of Latin America made in the last two decades. This is the
consequence of the absence of works made by Venezuelan researchers.
37
METHODOLOGY OF THE SERIES
In general, we find difficulties to use a particular methodology, and during the
process of collecting the data we had to deviate from our original purpose and
starting to adapt gradually the methodological framework to the availability,
reliability and employability of the data, so we had to flexible in the working
scheme. It is worth highlighting that with the intention of facilitating the reading of
the proposed series of GDP, all monetary values have been transformed into
current and constant Bolivares and international dollars of 1990, in order to allow
comparison with other series. Likewise, when required by the calculation, we made
conversions of various types of measurement of volume, mass, weight, capacity
and surface to the metric system. Since this work was first thought for a
Venezuelan academic audience, we have made an effort to stick to simplicity and
to maximum clarity in order to arouse interest Economic History.
For the period from 1783 to 1829 we used data from foreign trade (Exports +
Imports) regressing them on the relationship between GDP and foreign commerce
between 1830 and 1870. We chose 1870 as the deadline, because from that
moment begin
a sequences of changes in Venezuelan economy, as the
intensification of
the monoculture of coffee and investment in railways and in
public ornamental works in urban centers, the expansion of mining and various
monetary reforms . That is, since 1870, the Guzman Blanco government with its
emphasis on the progress and “civilization” initiates a new dynamic in Venezuela's
economy. In contrast, the 1830-1870 period bears a closer match with the late
colonial period and the years immediately following, particularly in the structure of
foreign trade and also, coincidentally, ends with a civil war between 1859-1863 the Federal War-, which is similar in its intensity and consequences to the war of
Independence and served as dividing mark for the beginning of a new national
project, known in Venezuelan historiography as “the Guzmancismo” or the Yellow
Liberal model. We want to clarify our dissatisfaction with the use of foreign trade as
an instrumental variable to obtain an estimate of the GDP for the period 17831829. While we could build a basket of food consumption for that period; we did not
38
have enough information to develop a price index including at least the basic
products of Venezuelan diet or more accurately, of the subjects of the Spanish
Crown that inhabited what later would be Venezuela. Therefore, although the
estimate that we propose has a solid foundation in the relationship established
between GDP and international trade for the period 1830-1870, as mentioned,
ultimately it has as a basis the foreign trade of the period 1783-1829 and therefore
tends to oscillate with the movement of the external sector.
In contrast, for the series from 1830 to 1935, we start from the simple fact
that good series are available that are quite reliable and cover the period more
complicated for the research as it was the reconstruction of the accounts for the
nineteenth century. These series are: government spending and net export.
Therefore, we have a good amount of information to get the GDP from the
expenditure approach, and it is: GDP = Private Consumption + Private Investment
+ Public Spending + Exports - Imports. For the production approach21 there were
some agricultural censuses and there is enough information about certain
economic activities as exports of coffee, cocoa, hides, cattle, gold, and some
services such as transportation of goods by train and other data more or less
incomplete, both in volumes (quantities) and prices, thus opening the possibility of
constructing a set of indices of volume or quantities produced, which in
combination with a price index would produce the corresponding values. But we
chose to discard this way because the important data gaps and because we could
link in an exaggerated way the performance of GDP with the external sector
volatilizing the series. However, we made an estimate for 1884 by branch of
production, since for that year we had the minimum information necessary to infer
the added value of production. For this purpose we use the information about the
agricultural production published in the Statistical Yearbook of 1884 and the
functional structure of the labor force, Census 1891. The results are presented in
the statistical annex.
21
See Izard, especially the bibliography that indicates the source to initiate and overall research of data.
Series. Estadistica de la Historia de Venezuela (1969)
39
For the income approach there is some information about rural and urban
wages, but when we try to compare them we found significant inconsistencies in
the amounts and wide gaps between rural and urban incomes, which are not found
in other series in Latin American or European history. Otherwise the numbers were
insufficient to build a solid series. There is adequate information on government
wages and salaries, but in our opinion are not representative of the general level of
incomes, being in average much higher than the rest of the occupation or jobs, and
also the group of public employees represent no more than 2% or 3% of the
employed population in the nineteenth century and therefore we discard it. On the
other hand, the rural labor force, most of the employed population, received its
payments or wages in mixed rations of food and/or cards to purchase products in
the grocery store in the plantation and a high number of them worked depending
on the agricultural cycle of production. This makes almost impossible to estimate
adequately the number of those working permanently in plantations and Hatos.
Anyway, we could infer from the many different data we analyzed the behavior of
nominal and real wages. Both remained stable and did not grow beyond 0.6-0.8%
annually between1830-1930. This means that in 1830 a rural laborer earning 1
Bs/day and working about 250 days/year, obtaining revenue of 250 Bs/year, in
1930 a laborer could earn a 550/600 Bs/year, or close to 1.50-1.60 Bs/day. It is
worth adding here that the average inflation rate was very low for the period 18301949, 1.41% the general and 1.42% the food inflation, a minimum difference that
virtually equal the two indexes, however it was much greater than the increase of
wages and therefore the real wages remained generally depressed with the
exception of the years 80 and 90 of the nineteenth century, when nominal and real
wages rose sharply and then decline severely through late nineteenth and early
twentieth centuries.
Similarly, we initially explored the possibility of applying the proposed method
by Professor Paolo Malanima
22
but it presupposes the prior existence of four sets
of information: population, wages (urban and rural), and price and urbanization
22
See the work of Professor Paolo Malanima, especially the following: Italian GDP 1300-1913 and
Measuring the Italian Economy 1300-1861. Rivista di Storia Economica, December 2003. Also Lo Cascio and
Malanima: GDP in Pre-Modern Economies to Revision of Estimates
40
rates, to undertake the calculation procedure starting from the demand per capita
of agriculture products. The huge data gaps, already mentioned, made it unfeasible
its application in the specific case of Venezuela. Finally we decide on to be guided
by a simple but effective procedure used by Raymond Gold Smith
23
to rebuild the
GDP of the Roman Empire to which we add the Index of Inflation, covering the
period 1830-1949. It was link with the GDP deflator for the period 1950 -2009
(which can be easily obtained in the website of the Central Bank of Venezuela) in
order to obtain the product in 1984 prices24. Using the expenditure approach,
based on the consumption of the population, has two advantages for the
Venezuelan case. First, it lets us include subsistence agricultural production and
this means a translation of the self- consumption-oriented product into monetary
values .An important part of the population food consumption was satisfied through
the family production in small plots of land (“conucos”), of cassava, plantain,
onions, bananas, corn, beans and raising poultry, goats and pigs and were used to
supplement or even as central part of the diet for people in dispersed rural areas.
Even regularly there was a surplus that could be placed on the market. We are of
the opinion that the economy of the conuco has been erroneously relegated to a
secondary position25. In fact it represented a very consisting part of production and
consumption of the population, with the implications this has for social
reproduction. Therefore its importance was fundamental for the market supply of
food. We want to underline that the chosen method emphasizes consumption and
indirectly small-scale production aimed at satisfying local demand for agricultural
goods and handicrafts. We believe that figures obtained in this way give us a much
more extensive and effective view of the product volume. Second, we have a good
knowledge of what Venezuelans consumed in that period both quantities and
prices. Keep in mind that in a pre-modern agricultural economy the private
23
See Raymond W. Goldsmith An Estimate of The Size and Structure of The National Product Of The Early
Roman Empire (1984).
24
We want to highlight that the official CPI from 1950 to 2008 was calculated based on the movement of
prices in the metropolitan area of Caracas, it is only recently that the Central Bank has begun to calculate
the inflation through a National Survey. Therefore, the GDP deflator, the ratio between current and constant
data, which is an assessment of prices, was in our opinion, the best indicator of price behavior in Venezuela
until the introduction of index of prices.
25
See Colin Clark and Haswell The Economics of Subsistence Agriculture St. Martin’s Press
41
consumption can represent between 80% to 90% of GDP26, mostly in food
consumption and Venezuela maintained that structure, roughly, until the
introduction of oil exploitation in the twenties of the last century, even so it had
been built some rail lines or other mechanical devices typical of a modern
economy.
It is not our intention to minimize the importance of agro-export economy,
essentially the export of coffee during the nineteenth century and part of twentieth;
but we want to point out the fact that adjacent to this export economy there was a
large production of agricultural goods oriented to domestic consumption. In the
specific case of Venezuela, the calculation of private or households consumption is
the most accurate method with which we can operate to make a reconstruction of
national accounts. It is a simple but effective method that we consider could be
successfully used in other Latin American countries that do not have long and
reliable statistical series of agricultural goods´ production, manufactured goods and
services or solid information of income as wages, salaries, interest, etc. We start
by building several baskets of basic products that we use to calculate the private
consumption by multiplying the quantities by its price, and obtained value by
multiplying the result by population. The baskets elaborated took into account the
consumption patterns of the Venezuelan population in the nineteenth century,
especially of food27, however as we apply it, we took into consideration some
modifications that pattern shows, as it was a reduction in consumption of maize per
capita, in the second half of the nineteenth century and a sharp increase
consumption of beans and brown sugar. However, in general terms the basic diet
of the Venezuelan remained very stable throughout the nineteenth century and the
first two or three decades of the twentieth century. Also, we included in the
calculation some manufactured products and beverages, textiles, sandals,
matches, kerosene, spirituous and beer.
26
According to Maddison around 1820 participation of private consumption in France was 84% and 88% in
Great Britain. Maddison La economía Mundial 1820-1992 OCDE.
27
See the important but unfortunately little known work of Professor Jaime Torres Sánchez of the Andes
University, on the diet in colonial and nineteenth century.
42
The average basket reached approximately a total weight of about 400
kilograms and the principal food were: 100 kg of platanos ( plantain), 80 kg of
maize, 75 kg beans or grains, 54 kg of brown sugar ( papelon) and a other
consumables like meat
28
, sugar, potatoes (consumed in the Andes), wheat
(consumed mainly in Caracas), butter, cheese, salt, cocoa and coffee. For drinks
we use basically the most widespread, such as beer, which began to be consumed
intensely with the installation in the country of breweries but especially aguardiente
was the most popular drink along with the homemade guarapos alcohol made from
sugar cane. For manufactured products we include about 20 kg of textile, as
cotton, wool (used in the Andes and in many Sunday-dresses), sandals, shoes,
soap, kerosene, candles, matches, etc. The basket represents what we define as
the minimum consumption for an adult and about 60-80% of consumption of an
infant; we increase its value by 50% to take into account the different levels of
income of the population. We take this figure, moderate, because not only it was
an extremely poor, almost impoverished the population, but also most of the
owners of Hatos and Haciendas were not swimming in abundance as some militant
historiography wants us to believe, rather these owners had a material life we
could define as austere
29
. Likewise was the case with small traders and
storekeepers, artisans, pulperos etc. That was, if not the most poor and backward
society in South America, probably one of the most depressed.
Calculations of private investment represent the greatest challenge, because
we have neither even a single year in the nineteenth century with sufficient
information to derive values relatively consistent to extrapolate them into the
series. Consequently, we proceeded to draw some very rough estimate, calculated
on the behavior of private consumption and derived from yearly growth of the
number of hectares under production for agriculture in general, and for coffee in
particular, some market value, production costs and benefits per hectare of
cultivated coffee and cocoa, and the volume of agricultural production, as
appearing in various livestock and agricultural censuses, but especially we made
28
. See considerations of Professor Arcila Farias on meat consumption in Venezuela (2004).
In the work “Vida en la Hacienda XVIII to XX (2010) by retired Professor J. Rafael Lovera he portrays in a
detailed way the life in the Venezuelan countryside and its extreme simplicity even in the propertied class
29
43
use of new statistical data on imports of capital goods and intermediate good,
which have been extremely useful to refine the calculation of private gross fixed
investment. Also, from the seventh decade of the nineteenth century, we use the
figures of foreign and domestic private investment in branches of production or
services such as: railways, telephony, telegraphy, mining and oil industry from the
second decade of twentieth century, contrasting them with the figures of public
investment, on which there were relatively reliable data from 1870.
30
Also we
compare our estimates with observed patterns in historical series of other countries
with agriculture economic structure31, adjusting our estimates where needed. In
this sense,
we deduce the values
expressed in current bolivars and
32
percentages .The behavior of private investment fluctuates according to our
estimates, about from 2% to 30% for the period 1830-1949. The highest figures
were reached at the second, third and fourth decade of the twentieth century, while
the upper half figures were reached at the seventh decade of the nineteenth
century until the first decade of the twentieth century. We must emphasize that if
we add the known figures of public investment in infrastructure, for example in
1935, with those from private investment calculated by us, the gross investment
would reach about 9% of GDP in a time when they still felt the effects of the
depression of 1929. The lack of public investment data for the first decades of the
nineteenth century precluded us from making a more accurate and precise
calculation.
To construct the inflation index covering the period 1830-1949 we selected
about 40 products, including food, beverages and manufactured, from local
production or imported, giving greater weight (70%) to food and beverages
33
. We
developed two indexes, for the period 1830-1949: a General Price Index and a
30
See the Statistical Yearbooks of the Ministry of Development since 1877 with interruptions until 1944. And
Coordinated by The Nikita Harwich Foreign investments in Venezuela Nineteenth Century Volumes 1 and 2
(1994).
31
See Carreras and Tafunell, Historical Statistics of Spain and the Digital Library of the National Institute of
Geography and Statistics INEGI Mexico.
32
To get a reference, the amount of investment in the railway system reached 200 million Bs between1873 1915. The amount of oil investments exceeds $ 100 million between 1917-1929
33
We took as reference the First National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure. Cordiplan 1964, where
families in dispersed rural areas spent between 63 and 65 of its income on food.
44
Commodity Price Index of Food and Beverage. The sources used were mainly the
Statistical yearbooks of the Ministry of Development (Fomento), especially after
1913, daily newspapers of the XIX century and the National Accounts Volumes
coordinated by Tomás Enrique Batalla and published under the auspices of the
Central Bank of Venezuela. We want to note, we found some mistakes in the
calculations of both inflation rates and in some prices found in the Volumes of
National Accounts, probably related to transcription problems, therefore we
proceeded to a cross verification of prices from other sources and we excluded the
method of calculation.
For the period 1935-1949 are available, although from widely scattered sources,
statistics data to estimate the current GDP without major difficulties34. Since 1950
we exclusively used data from the Central Bank of Venezuela as they appear on its
web page. Knowing private consumption, public spending (which includes public
investment), private investment and net exports we performed operations to
estimate the GDP at current prices for the period 1830-1935. For the period 19361949 we also got the product in current terms using available data, that are
numerous and range from the behavior of money circulation to exports, imports,
government spending, public investment, etc., interpolating some years when it
was necessary and appropriate. And for the rest of the series we used, and we
want to emphasize this, the official data from the Central Bank of Venezuela. The
GDP at market prices obtained for the entire series was deflate using 1984 as
base-year thus getting a series at constant price, which as it is customary in these
cases, we calculated in international dollars of 1990 35
34
There is a lot of information, although widely dispersed among various sources. We mention two of the
most useful: National Income of Venezuela in 1936. BVC 1949 and CEPAL’s report prepared for the Ministry
of Development and covering the period 1945-1956
35
The different converters for Power Purchase Parity are available on the World Bank Data Base, product
different ICP (International Comparison Program). In this regard we should be very cautious as there are
diverse methodology, we recommend reading the text World Economy 1820-1992 and the literature given
by Maddison OCSE. While this work we use the WB PPP data base, also the latest series of Penn Word Table
are of great interest for comparison. It is worth clarifying here that our data differ from Prof Maddison
simply by the difference between the information he uses to make its calculations and ours. Author’s Note.
45
POPULATION
The population is a key factor in any economic measurement. For the period
1783-1829 we encounter a real dilemma, because there are only estimates of
travelers who visited Venezuela during those years and some incomplete data
from various Spanish ecclesiastical and civil authority census or estimations of the
time. The best work on colonial demography remains the one from Professor John
Lombardi, though limited to the Archbishop of the Province of Caracas. The road
we took to solve this problem was to consult almost all estimates values available
for the period that interests us, both from primary and secondary sources, including
data from the province of Caracas, the General Captaincy of Venezuela and Great
Colombia36 . We chose those that seemed to match the behavior of late-colonial
economy between 1777 and 1829. We selected some base years (benchmarking
years) and interpolate the population between them.
We must insist that this is a very rough estimate, a conjecture that gives us a
trend in the population growth. We deduced on the basis of the information
consulted, that the population for what would be later the republic of Venezuela
could have reach about 580,000 inhabitants for 1783 and grew to almost 800,000
people (Humboldt) and stood at 850,000 (Lombardi) in 1810. Between 1811 and
1822 the population decreased to 766,000 (Humboldt) as a consequence of the
earthquake in Caracas in 1812, the Independence War, various epidemics in
densely populated areas and the migration of part of the white population,
especially Spanish and white Creole that moved to places like Cuba and Puerto
Rico.
36
See among others, the Memories from General Directory of Statistics to the President of the United States
of Venezuela, 1873, where there is a long compendium of statistics of the population during the colonial
time.
46
For the years between 1830 and 2009, we constructed a population series
interpolating for that purpose data from our own estimate for 183037 the official
estimate for 1845 and the official census of 1873, 1881, 1891, 1926, 1936 and
population projections from the National Institute of Statistics for the period 19502050.
Although in this aspect we believe it is necessary to leave the way open for
further investigation, to make an effort and to clarify the impact of civil wars and
malaria38 on Venezuelan population in the nineteenth century. Regarding to the
urban population, we cannot reconstruct for the entire period a series. Given the
lack of data for the nineteenth century but we can estimate its weight from 9-10%
for 1830 to about 15-16% in 192039 . From the thirties of the twentieth century there
is an actual explosion in the growth of urban population; in 1936, according to our
estimation, it was of 19.55% and by 1950, according to official census, reached
42.03%. For the year 1830 we start from the population data from some cities,
available for the period 1800-1810 (Chi-Yi-Chen Page 20 Table 1-1) and we
assume the recovery of the population in urban centers by 1830, after the
Independence War.
Furthermore, we think important to briefly comment on the dynamics of
immigration and the country's ethnic composition. Venezuela is a country that
boasts of being a mestizo (mix of races) society that has supposedly achieved a
high degree of racial or ethnic harmony40 . Certainly there is no doubt that
37
We use the findings made by Julio Paez Celis in the Essay on Economic Demographics of Venezuela and
various data summarized in Chi-Yi Chen Venezuela’s Population Dynamics (1979).
38
In Venezuela there is no tradition of Military History that goes past the Civil-Military relationships.
Most of the works of military history, very scarce, are limited to studies of the Military Campaigns of the
Independence War, almost always framed in romantic and heroic approach. It is pending the development
of what Anglo-Saxon and Europeans call the War and Society Studies. We do not know the destructive
effects of the countless civil wars of the nineteenth century on the workforce and the economic
consequences thereof. Author´s note.
39
To make the estimation of the population urban population we used the Censuses of 1873, 1881, 1891,
1920, the statistical yearbook of 1938, Izard data in Estadisticas Historicas de Venezuela. We consider the
following cities from all regions of the country: Caracas, La Guaira, Maiquetía, Barcelona, Puerto La Cruz, San
Fernando de Apure, Maracay, Ciudad Bolivar, Puerto Cabello, Valencia, Zaraza Barquisimeto, Merida, Los
Teques, Maturín, Porlamar, Carúpano, Cumana, San Cristóbal, La Grita, Bocono, Cabimas, Maracaibo.
Author’s note.
40
See the work of Winthrop R Wright “Café con Leche, Race Class and National Image in Venezuela”
University of Texas Press
47
Venezuela is one of the region more genetic mixed societies. Even so it is not a
multicultural society as declared in Bolivarian Constitution but, we believe a
mestizo one. However, the supposed harmony between different ethnic
components of Venezuelan nationality is a half-truth, a textbook construct
incorporated into the Venezuelan nationalist rhetoric, an expression the ideology of
mestizaje.
Table 5:
POP GROWTH RATE
PERIOD
GROWTH RATE %
1783-1830
0,8
1830-1845
2.3
1845-1873
1.2
1873-1881
1.8
1881-1891
1.0
1891-1926
0.7
1926-1936
1.8
1936-1941
2.7
1941-1950
3.1
1830-2009
1.9
Sources: XIII Censo General de población y vivienda y Proyecciones de Población INE.
Está excluida lo que los primeros censos oficiales denominan población indígena selvática
que alcazaba entre 50.000 y 80.000 habitantes.
In reality, there is a constant hostility between mestizo and white behind the
dynamics of the social conflict in the history of Venezuela, from the colonial time
through the republican period41. Obviously, with the end of the colonial bond, the
institutionalized forms of racism disappeared, but the inter-ethnic hostility is still
41
. Barry Cannon. “Class / Race Polarization in Venezuela and the electoral success of Hugo Chávez: a break
with the past or the Song Remains the Same?” Centre for International Studies School of Law and
Government Dublin City University Working, paper 9 of 2008.
48
recurrent and its surfaces in all its extents at a times where economic and social
crisis get loose. Some recent articles have even proposed the idea of studying
social differences through genetic admixture. This is the case of a work entitled
“Admixture Estimates for Caracas, Venezuela, Based on Autosomal, YChromosome, and mtDNA Markers”. The conclusion of this study is that
Venezuelans descent of European descent are over-represented in high socioeconomic (0.76) with few Afro-Venezuelan (the sub-Saharan African component is
0.06), while in social levels of lowest income the mix of Afro-Venezuelan and euroVenezuelans and
Amerindian
have respectively 0.21, 0.42, 0.3642. A second
study called “A Melting Pot of mtDNA multicontinental Lineages in admixed
Venezuelans”, which analyzes the contribution of mitochondrial DNA mixture
reaches the surprising result that 80% of Venezuelans through the maternal line,
are of Amerindian lineage43. Probably both studies, of undoubted interest and
scientific value, are consequences of a historic time of high social and political
polarization. The reality is that neither genes nor IQ determine the income of a
population or a country44 , are the historical, cultural and above all institutional
factors, that is, the environment, the main elements. The country's ethnic
composition is difficult to establish because the census, since the mid-nineteenth
century, failed to collect data to this regard, it was considered a form of racism or a
way of threatened equality.
But it is possible to make some considerations and provide some figures that
may allow us to analyze the evolution of the population from the ethnic point of
view. The white population which was about 25% at the end of the Colonial period
fell below 10% in the early XX45 . This contraction of the white population relative to
42
Alberto Gomez-Carballa, Ana Ignacio-Veiga, Vanessa A Alvarez-Iglesias, Ana Ruiz Pastoriza-Mourelle,
Yarimar, Lennie Pineda, Angel Carracedo, and Antonio Salas. A Melting Pot of mtDNA Lineages in admixed
multicontinental Venezuelans. American Journal of Physical Anthropology 147:78-87 (2012).
43
Helios Martinez, Alvaro Rodriguez Larralde, Mary Helen Izaguirre, and Dinorah Castro De Guerra.
Admixture Estimates for Caracas, Venezuela, Based on Autosomal, Y-Chromosome, and mtDNA Markers.
Human Biology, 79 (2): 201-213. 2007..
44
. See in this respect The "Out of Africa" Hypothesis, Human Genetic Diversity, and Comparative Economic
Development. Ashraf and Oded Galor Quamrul IZA DP No. 6330 January 2012.
45
With teutonic accuracy Professor Otto Burger, in a book published in German in 1922, gives the following
figures for 1839: 27.3%White, 43.6%Mestizo, 5.3% Black, 17.8% Amerindians and 6% free Amerindians. By
49
the total was caused by the ravages of the War of Independence, the emigration of
Spanish, Canaries and Venezuelan supporting the King of Spain to other Spanish
colonies in the Antilles, the intensification of the process of miscegenation, and
possibly a lower reproduction rate among whites in relation to the mestizo
population. Throughout the nineteenth century, in Venezuela, there was virtually no
immigration, despite multiple efforts made to attract European settlers, the country
simply was not attractive. By 1900, the foreigners resident in the country were
about 35,000, less than one percent of the total population, mostly Canarian,
Spanish and Italian. During the first decades of the twentieth century, mainly from
the exploitation of oil, but primarily as a State policy implemented by the military
government of General Marcos Perez Jimenez and with the declared intention to
"whiten" the population, an old dream of Venezuelan elites and
46
Bolívar
even Simon
, always fearful that the country fell into the hands of the pardos, it was
encouraged the immigration of Italians, Spanish and Portuguese, who arrived in a
number close to 450,000, at a time when the population was about 5,000,000
inhabitants. During those years the white population of the country came to be at a
minimum of 25% and up to 30% of the total. Democratic government, which
replaced the military regime in 1959 judge necessary, in order to protect local labor
at a time of economic crisis and because it wasn’t part of his ideological proposal
to “whiten” the country, disrupting definitely the arrival of Europeans who were not
relatives of those already established in the country. Therefore, the European
immigration to Venezuela was relatively minor when compared with other Latin
American countries like Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil, and limited to the period
1952-1958 .But their presence is very evident, since much of the commercial and
small and medium industries development is due to them. The vast majority of
Europeans and their descendants now are the backbone of the professional sector
and medium income class of the population.
1891 the figures are 2% White Venezuelan mestizo 89.8%, 5% black, 1.9% free Amerindians, 1.3% white
foreigners.
46
Aline Helg “Simon Bolivar and the Spectre of Pardocracia: José Padilla in Post-Independence Cartagena” J.
Lat. Amer. Stud. 35, 447-471.
50
In the seventies, the rise of oil prices stimulated a new influx of immigration,
even greater and more lasting than that of the fifties, coming almost exclusively
from Latin America. The exact number of immigrants from Latin America is
impossible to measure, according to several unofficial sources it was between 3
and 5 million. In general, immigrants from neighboring countries were rapidly
integrated, especially enlarging the popular sectors, thanks to the sharing of
language and culture. Naturally in this integration process there were problems
between the hosted country and their new citizens, but they were overcome
without major incident. Although it is interesting to note, and this is a rarely studied,
that the vast amount of immigration from Latin American and Caribbean, of various
racial origins, changed the ethnic, demographic and cultural profile of popular
areas and generally of the country, especially in large urban centers, as any careful
observer can perceive if goes to the popular areas around major metropolitan
centers. Today is possible to find in slums around the big cities in Venezuela,
complete neighborhoods or areas with residents of the same national origin from
various countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, though they are all
Venezuelan citizens or residents, and are properly integrated into their new
society.
In the past quarter of the XX century, the ethnic composition of the population
changed fast due to the large immigration of mestizos, afro-descent and
Amerindian from Latin America and the Caribbean countries. The highest rate of
reproduction rate of new immigrants and Venezuelan popular sectors compared
with Venezuelans of the middle and upper strata from European-origin along with
the return to their countries of many Europeans, as a result of the economic crisis
of 1983, the Caracazo in 1989 and coups in 1992 and a significant migration in the
last decade of Venezuelan middle class to the United States, Europe and Australia,
have produced a rearrangement of the country's ethnic structure. Possibly the
white47 population is between a minimum of 10% and a maximum of 15%, highly
concentrated in the middle / high social classes, mainly located in Caracas and
47
Lizcano Fernandez Francisco Ethnic Composition of the Three Areas of the Americas Cultural Siglo XXI to
the beginning of the century. Center for Research in Social Sciences and Humanities, UAEM. Convergencia,
no. 38, May-August2005, ISSN 1405-1435, UAEM, Mexico
51
other urban centers, with a pronounced tendency to decrease rapidly by the
exodus of the middle class. Paradoxically, the aspiration repeatedly expressed
since colonial times by the Venezuelan power elites, about the urgency of
whitening the Venezuelan population to develop and civilize the country was not
met, on the contrary, Venezuela is today a country with a high mestizo ethnic
profile and the white population in sharp in decline, as it was by end of the
nineteenth century.
52
Manufacture Goods and Food Consumption by Venezuelans in the
nineteenth century.
The information available with reference to food habits in Venezuelan from
colonial times to mid-twentieth century is abundant and varied. Virtually, there is
some mention about the eating habits of its people and the various social classes
in every written relation done by the Spanish colonial authorities or by the various
travelers. So we have a good knowledge about the Venezuelan diet across the
centuries and even in some cases we have an interesting attempt of quantifying
48
the food intake in their various types (meat, maize, cassava, beans, etc.). This
mass of information added to important contemporary works had allowed us to
build some basic food baskets that combined with consumption of manufactured
goods, permitted us to estimate domestic private consumption and to begin the
construction of the product series using the expenditure approach, the goal of this
paper.
The most important part of the series we propose is certainly the reconstruction
of private consumption49 . We propose two baskets, the basic food basket and the
extended basket, the latter includes food, beverages and manufactured goods. We
show the value of the extended basket in Bolivares per person, and per family of 2
adults and 3 infants, from 1830 to 1935, used for the calculation of consumption
(Table 6). We assume that consumption of three infants equals that of two adults.
During the nineteenth century and until the beginning of oil exploration, but
especially with the arrival of the Europeans in the mid-fifties of the twentieth
century, the diet, we denominated as “national”, was monotonically based on few
products that can be called “essential or basic”. These were mainly the bread of
maize (“arepa”), grains, with strong preference for black beans, plantains and
brown sugar (papelon), a food prepared on the simple processing of sugar cane.
48
Antonio Arellano Moreno, Economic History Documents in the Colonial Era. Travel and Reports,
selection and preliminary study of National Academy of History Caracas 1970
49
See the comments on the food consumption of an upper class family in Caracas made by P.
L.Bell, Venezuela. Commercial and Industrial Handbook 1922 Washington Government Printing
Office
53
The cassava bread was very popular during the Colonial time but less during the
Republican period. The most popular drinks were aguardiente and “guarapo”, the
latter also made from brown sugar. In addition, each region had certain productionrelated preferences and local traditions. The meat was consumed in huge
quantities in the Llanos de Apure, the tubers in the Andes, the salted fish in the
Costa (coast), wheat bread in urban centers such as Caracas.
Table 6
Años
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
Extended
Basket in
Bolívares per
person
79
74
82
83
84
82
78
75
65
63
64
64
62
64
64
59
59
60
65
66
66
66
67
69
78
86
63
74
70
73
75
77
72
Extended Basket per family
of 5 persons (2 adults, 3
infants) in Bolívares.
315
298
328
332
337
329
314
301
260
251
257
256
249
254
255
238
236
241
260
263
264
265
270
276
311
343
254
294
280
292
300
308
289
54
1863
1864
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
71
71
72
74
76
79
81
84
88
90
102
102
100
102
108
112
115
113
107
99
103
113
109
113
101
103
101
95
95
93
99
100
105
104
117
122
103
107
111
114
118
122
129
132
137
143
149
157
163
171
184
286
286
288
296
304
315
325
336
352
359
406
407
398
407
432
448
462
453
430
396
411
452
435
452
404
411
402
380
381
371
396
400
418
416
468
486
412
428
443
455
470
489
514
529
550
573
597
626
652
685
738
55
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
222
232
234
257
260
294
337
239
240
243
253
263
293
264
264
246
235
228
212
221
209
219
888
929
936
1027
1042
1177
1348
955
962
971
1013
1052
1174
1054
1057
986
939
914
849
884
837
875
Sources: Cálculos propios
Such basic products, designated here as vital national diet, were complemented
according to the region with oscillating quantities of others foodstuffs, as cassava
bread, wheat bread, salt, white cheese, yucca, potatoes, meat, butter for frying,
rice, cocoa (especially during the Colonial period, when almost a quarter of the
production was for domestic consumption), coffee, sugar, salt fish, fruits, onions,
etc.
Throughout eighteenth and nineteenth century and taking into account diverse
fluctuations in crop produce, the production of agricultural goods and food to
supply local needs covered about 80-85% of domestic demand. Much of that
production, as mentioned, was done in small production units (“conucos”) or in
those parcels of lands used for producing food for the workforce of the haciendas
and small surpluses for sale in local markets. The food consumption of
Venezuelans began to change rapidly only during the oil period and the arrival of
the European immigration. Agriculture declined dramatically and today the national
56
production barely covers 50-60% of calories consumption of Venezuelan. The
Venezuelan diet became more sophisticated; with a wide range of imported
products, among them wheat, whose consumption increased rapidly, transforming
the bread, the pasta and the flour of wheat an important component of national
diet. With the available information and the findings of several authors we have
managed to develop three food baskets, used to reconstruct the consumption of
the population, they comprise, in general terms, the period 1830 to 1940.
On the other hand, manufactured goods consumed by the population are few
and related to meet very basic needs such as candles, kerosene, soap, machetes,
hammocks, sandals, shoes, matches, hats and very simple clothing in rural areas,
which generally always included one or two changes for special occasions and
Sunday´s walks. Mainly in urban centers and in Caracas, the population, including
the poorest sectors was very scrupulous and careful in their dress and they like to
wear expensive imported accessories, but this was more the exception than the
rule.
In order to facilitate the reading, we produced four graphs, (Graph 5) with
information on the food consumption, manufacturing and beverage in kg per capita
/ per year. The baskets 1 and 2 correspond respectively to food consumption from
1830 to about the first two decades of the twentieth century, while basket 3
corresponds to the period that begins in the twenties until about the end of the
thirties of the twentieth century. It is important to mention that corn consumption
was reduced from 120-140 kg per capita to about 90 kilos in the second half of the
nineteenth century, while the brown sugar and platanos increased proportionately
in the same period. This was possibly due to strong fluctuations in the price of corn
from 1870 to the late nineteenth century, with a marked in upward trend, while
prices of platanos and brown sugar remained very stable. Later on the
consumption of corn moved back close to 120 kg per capita and it remained
relatively stable until the mid-forties to go down gradually to 35-40 kg of today.
Also, for example, the consumption of milk products began increase from the
thirties and was no longer limited to livestock production areas. As we already
mentioned, the exploitation of oil, the relative contraction domestic agricultural
57
production to meet the growing domestic demand, and the ability to import large
quantities of food gradually changed the proportion of food in the national diet, a
process that accelerated with the arrival of European immigrants, whose eating
habits were quickly adopted by the local population.
With respect to manufacturing and beverages, the data presented focus on the
1830-1935 period and they are expressed in Kg per capita in order to facilitate its
use. It can be seen that we have used a minimum consumption of manufactured
goods, associated to the minimal requirement of clothing, some toiletries and
energy product (Kerosene). We have not included payment of rent because they
were negligible. That was a country with mud houses self-constructed in sparse
rural areas not unlike the current situation, where self-construction housing is still a
considerable part of the supply in the construction sector. Except that today there
is a huge market of houses and rooms for rent in the slums; in rural Venezuela of
the nineteenth century we didn´t find important references in this respect.
Another topic of great interest is the share of imported food for domestic
consumption; here the national historiography has exaggerated the relevance of
food imports, may be a projection of the present into the past, although it is true
that in some years and as a result of a poor harvest some products were imported,
such as beans or rice; also, the excessive concentration in coffee monoculture in
the late XIX century weakened the production for the domestic market. The reality
is that making a careful analysis, year by year for which there are available
statistics, along the nineteenth century, we find no reason to reach such a
conclusion. Venezuela was not a country dependent on food imports, but rather it
was able to cover about 85% of domestic consumption. The imports were primarily
concentrated in wheat flours, certain beverages such as wine and a range of
processed foods. The truth is that many of these products, by their own
characteristics and high prices, were not consumed by most of the population, and
were imported to meet the demand of urban centers such as Caracas or
Maracaibo, where the average income was twice that of the rest of the country and
wealthy classes had residence. But it is good to note that the urban population, on
58
average, during the nineteenth century did not surpass the 10-12% of the total. As
an example, for every kilogram of imported wheat it was consumed 12 kilograms of
national maize, today the ratio is 1 to 1 and a portion of the corn consumed locally
is also imported. Moreover, the country depended on imports of intermediate,
capital and final goods. But we believe that the concept of dependency with all its
modern meaning in a context of a rudimentary technology, a very limited industrial
base, concentrated in craft activities and consumption between 65-70% of food is
out of question. Possibly much more reasonable will be to apply this notion to the
“Petroleum Venezuela”, but not to that agricultural economy, halfway between the
pre-modern and modern.
No less important is the relationship between wages and the basket, we called
enlarged basket. In this regard we do not have enough salary data for a long
series, but we have some figures that allow us to establish a relationship and an
idea of minimum wage behavior. Relation one is rural salaries or equivalents and
relation two urban salaries.
Table 7 Relation extended consumer basket and minimum wages
1835
1840
1845
1849
1850
1875
1880
1885
1887
1890
1895
1900
1901
1905
1910
1922
1935
Soldado
480
480
320
375
325
Peón
sargento
Primero
775
579
514
700
580
587
675
480
625
548
840
540
Trabajador peones
Urbano
ferrocarriles Canasta
329
257
238
263
264
398
453
435
1080
404
380
418
428
1080
444
515
626
1320
962
960
875
Relación 1
1,46
1,87
1,34
1,43
1,23
1,95
1,28
1,18
1,73
1,53
1,40
1,58
1,08
1,21
0,88
0,87
0,62
59
Relación 2
2,67
2,43
1,37
1,10
Sources : Cálculos propios, Carrillo Batalla, Cuentas Nacionales de Venezuela, Valecillos ,
El Crecimiento Económico y el Mercado del Trabajo en Venezuela en el siglo XX, Ricos y
Pobres en Táchira Bell P. L Commercial and Industrial Handbook of Venezuela.
As can be seen in the table, the minimum real wages (relationship between the
nominal wage and the cost of the basket) began to decline from 1901, which
coincides with a crisis in those years, a situation which was exacerbated in later
years as a result of 1929 depression and the labor policy of Gómez. This
apparently happened also with urban wages, both public and private sector,
producing a reduction in real wages very important by 1935. It is important to
underline, that nearly a half of the Venezuelan labor force worked in agriculture in
1936, about 600,000 people, most of them workers whose wages were extremely
low.
Minimum real wages 1835-1935 calculated from the relation nominal wage-basket
2,50
Salarios reales 1835-1935
calculados en base a la relacion canasta -salarios nominales
2,00
1,50
1,00
0,50
0,00
1835 1840 1845 1849 1850 1875 1880 1885 1887 1890 1895 1900 1901 1905 1910 1922 1935
Below we shown the graphs related to food baskets and manufactured goods
basket, which shows the evolution of food consumption based on the movement of
60
products which we have called “the basic national diet” and it includes: plantains,
corn, beans, and brown sugar. In the graphs, it is displayed the importance of
these foods in the diet of Venezuelans, even if slowly the percentage of their share
in total food consumption declines, as can be inferred through the increase of
complementary products and even more to the relative improvement in the food
intake of the population, by the late thirties and early forties, when private or
household consumption began to grow strongly as a result of oil exports, of the
increasing of public spending and of the public and private employment in
manufacturing and services. The rapid urbanization and the contraction of the
employed in the agricultural sector, traditionally the sector with the lowest wages in
the Venezuelan economy, propelled and accompanied this process. Between 1908
and 1936 the private consumption per capita (1984 prices) grew at an annual rate
of just 1.5%. In the 14 years from 1935 and 1949 it was 4.69%. As happens in
these situations, the increased revenue is dedicated at first to increased food
acquisition.
61
Graph 5 Consumption of food in KG. Baskets 1, 2 and 3and manufacture goods
basket
Consumo Alimentos en KG
canasta 3 Consumo
Consumo Alimentos en KG
canasta 1
Consumo en
KG de maiz,
platanos,gran
os y papelon
52
290
Platanos,
maiz,
Papelon,
Granos en KG
104
Consumo
otros
comestibles
en KG
Consumo Alimentos KG
Canasta 2
Consumo
otros
comestibles
en KG
308
Consumo de Productos
manufacturados y Bebidas en KG
alpargatas
velas
jabon
Consumo de
Platanos, Maiz,
Papelon,
Granos en KG
73
4
fosforos
2
4
kerosene
5
zapatos
6
312
Consumo otros
Comestibles en
KG
1
lana
algodon
3
2 1 2
2
aceites
aguardiente
cervezas
It may be interesting to add some final considerations regarding the present
consumption, using both kg of food consumption per capita and its composition
and compare them with data developed for this work. For this purpose, we have
taken a single year, 2005, which is sufficient to show the structure of the food
groups compared to the proposed baskets, and also we took a number of years in
order to observe the consumption of food per Kg capita/per year. To simplify, we
62
have excluded calculations of the kilocalorie consumed, although the average for
the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries fluctuated between 2200 and 2300 per
day/ inhabitant, not far from the average amount for rest the twentieth century.
Graph 6 Consumption of food KG 2005
Consumo de Alimentos en KG
2005
96
otros
platanos,
granos,azucar,maiz
384
Source: INN y cálculos propios
As shown in the above Graph, the traditional products of the Venezuelan diet in the
nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, represent only 20% of total food
consumption in 2005 and this is so if we include refined sugar (37kg) used as a
partial substitute of brown sugar to sweeten. While in the baskets 1, 2 and 3
traditional products represent 82.4%, 81.03 and 74.5%, respectively. This allows
us to understand the dimensions of the change produced by oil as a source of
economic transformation. Ultimately, the exploitation of oil and the wealth it
generated was the appeal that led Europeans to immigrate to Venezuela in the
mid-fifties and spread their eating habits. The oil income also allowed developing a
food import capacity that leads to a drastic change in Venezuelans habits. In the
graph below, we can observe the comportment of food consumption per capita in
kg per year. We have included recent and the only available data, so we can
63
compare with the baskets made for the purpose of calculating the domestic private
consumption for our series. The series of food consumption we presented is fairly
reliable until 2006, although we must clarify we consulted the nutritional profile of
Venezuela, reported by the FAO for the year 2000, which includes the years 1982,
1984 and the series from 1990-1997 and they differ greatly from the data we use;
this is not happening with the amounts derived from the technical unit of Fedeagro
(National Confederation of Agricultural Producers of Venezuela) that are fairly
close to the officials. Therefore, we used government figures from the National
Institute of Nutrition (NIN), however, since 2006 the increase is rapid and may be
somewhat inflated to highlight the achievements of the Bolivarian Revolution.
Graph 7 Consumption of Food in Kg
600
Consumo Alimentos Kg per capita
500
400
300
Serie1
200
100
1
2
3
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
Fuente: INN y cálculos propios
64
Measuring the Economy from 1783 to 1829
Trying to estimate the behavior of Venezuelan economy in the late colonial period,
that is, during the war of independence and the Great Colombian era, is quit
complicated by the limited availability of data and the absence of reference points,
but it could be stimulating, since it is our appreciation that the Captaincy General of
Venezuela, along with Cuba and Mexico were the largest economy in terms of
income per capita in the Spanish imperial conglomerate of Hispanic America at the
end of the colonial period.
The economy of the Venezuela´s provinces50 , unlike that of New Spain, were
no rich in mineral deposits neither it possessed large amount of Indian labor; also it
didn´t have the many Cuban sugar plantations and the immediate attention the
island received due to its strategic geographic situation. Venezuela was rather, for
a long time, an economy of subsistence located within the confines of the Spaniard
Empire, far away from the metropolis attention. Only through a very slow growth,
but long term lasting process, Venezuela reached a vigorously development of
cocoa agriculture, to which it were added other products such as coffee, indigo,
cattle, hides and cotton by the last days of the colony. It also integrated slowly into
the Atlantic market maybe throughout commerce smuggling with the Caribbean
island in the hands of European powers, especially the Dutch, and finally at the
end of the colonial period, selling its exports mainly to the Anglo-Saxon Powers.
Almost all travelers to Venezuela, as Francisco Depons, the iconic Humboldt, and
Dauxion Lavaysse, observed a progressing society with an expanding economy
and population . With those the mention observations we do not want to hide the
reality of Venezuelan society contradictions that exploded violently during the war
of independence. Our intention is only to underline the degree of wealth achieved
by that territory devoid of significant mineral or labor advantages.
50
. For the Venezuelan Colonial Economic History are fundamental work of Arcila Eduardo Farias, Manuel
Lucena, Juan Andreo Garcia Miguel Izard and Ferrigni Yoston
65
The birth of modern Venezuela is shape by space and communicating arteries:
it is the product of particular geographical conditions. The fertile valleys of the
Coastal Mountain, the open coast with their natural harbors in the Caribbean Sea
are a point aggregation of the economic activity and of the population, a situation
that persists even today. The Venezuelan economy was born as a close frontier
economy with few external exchanges, in the periphery of the Spanish imperial
structure and with an agricultural production which was intended to meet the needs
of local inhabitants.
Over the time, that strip of coast and mountains became integrate with the
Atlantic system by joining the European trading posts in the Caribbean, and linking
simultaneously to the Viceroyalty of Mexico as a supplier of tropical fruits (cocoa).
Then, with the arrival of the Bourbons to the Spanish throne and their new
mercantilist economic policy, the Basque company Guipuzcoana was established
in 1728. This company had the goal of monopolize the trade of cocoa to Europe
and import products to supply the Venezuelan provinces. For fifty years, until 1781,
the company of Caracas, as it was known, not only controlled or tried to supervise
and regulate Venezuelan external trade, but also enjoyed broad powers, such as
organizing the repression by military means of the contraband and coasts
monitoring. His performance in the Venezuelan provinces was controversial,
resulting in intense clashes with Venezuelans farmers; land owners small scale
commerce (pulperos). But it is clear that the Venezuelan provinces saw their trade
and production expanded throughout those years. The role of the Basques was not
limited to trade, but was also important in social, cultural and political aspects.
Within the ships of the Guipuzcoana company arrived illustration and many
European modes to Venezuela, manners that molded the mindset of the aristocrats
“mantuanos” and even the castes. The creation of the Intendencia General de
Ejército y Real Hacienda in 1776 and the General Captain of Venezuela in 1777
finally established a centralized political and administrative unit that would become
later on the Republic of Venezuela. The provinces that depended from the
66
Audience of Santo Domingo or the Viceroyalty of New Granada began to depend
on the Spanish bureaucracy in Caracas and not least on their Cabildo formed by
an arrogant “mantuanaje”. The largest economic and political heart of the CoastMountain strip became the city of Caracas, the center of power, at the expense of
the provincial elite. The Company of Caracas gradually lost its dominance, but the
Basques continue to exercise their imperial-bureaucratic power, as Mayors or
officials in the new political and legal apparatus. The latter period, covering the
years 1770-1810, was crossed by different circumstances, in fact, the foreign trade
de facto and de jure is liberalized and the economy diversified and fully integrates
the Atlantic market.
Internally, the Coast-Mountain strip mobilized, especially from the eighteenth
century on. It tries to expand its production frontier by submitting, integrating and
articulating to its economic growth and cocoa production and exports its own
periphery. This vast hinterland is comprised the wide plains of the llanos the deep
South with its jungles and Guyana’s plateau. It is throughout the establishment of
large cattle ranches, villages and missions that the dominant political and
economic structure tries to get a hold on those lands. The domestic trade of
livestock and the control of labor are the instrument used to exercise command
over the these huge lands, but it is a precarious domination, uncertain, constantly
threatened by the populations of slaves, mulattos and Amerindians fleeing from the
geographical center and taking refuge in small settlements as
quilombos and
rochelas. These vast areas were still in 1810 a frontier area, where coexisted the
natural economy of subsistence and the hunting of wild cattle, with a surplus agroexporting economy, private property as a legal regime and the absence of property
as the way of life. It was the frontline of the occidental and anti-occidental alms of
the country. When independence arrived, this contradiction is still standing and
would cause a deep breakdown of all the colonial socio-political system, whose
consequences continue to be felt in the new Republic for a long time.
The Venezuelan colonial economy, or even better the Venezuelan economic
history, can be understood as a sequence of cycle of exportation of primary
67
products (cocoa, coffee, oil) that connects the local market with the international
market. In the specific case of the colonial period, cocoa is the king, and from the
eighteenth century it is the center of the colonial economic organization that moves
around the volume and prices of cocoa and it’s positioning in markets in Veracruz
(Mexico), Netherlands Antilles, Netherlands, Spain and finally into the Atlantic
economy dominated by the Anglo-Saxon powers. Professor Eugenio Piñero, in a
book practically unknown in Venezuela, title "The Town of San Felipe and Colonial
Cacao Economies" examines, from the point of view of the Staple Theory, the
linkages between the export product and the regional economy of San Felipe. The
text of Piñero has two parallel but converging arguments that very useful for the
historical researchers in Venezuela. First, he criticizes the model of economic
dependency, and secondly, he provides a detailed description of the backward
linkages on domestic demand (consumption + investment) that cocoa processing
for exportation had on the regional San Felipe economy. The Staple approach has
the advantage of concentrating its tools of empirical and historical analysis on the
detail reconstruction of the impact of the primary product in the economy and local
society. But the difficulty arises at the juncture of evolution or transition, from a
staple to a post staple economy; there we enter in a complex terrain, where we do
not have schemes, recipes or experiences to use. Each society is the result of
permeable, mutable, thus dynamic, of particular social practices, routines, rituals
and habits, delimited by its institutions and formal and informal rules, mentality,
geography and climate, by its quantity and quality of human capital, by its level of
investment and capital productivity, historical patterns of settlement, regional
differences, socio-political relationship and so. Therefore development, that we
could define very succinctly as prolonged and irreversible economic growth
depends on a large number of variables difficult to weigh accurately in a single
equation. The passage from the Exporting Economy of Primary Goods (Staple
Economy)51 (48) to a diversified economy (Post Staple Economy) is not then the
product of a set of mechanical linkages between the export product and its internal
market, it is possibly a long, complex and slow journey, with random or induced
51
See the work of Harold Innis. A Fur Trade in Canada The University of Toronto Press 1956.
68
changes on social practices, institutions, mentality, etc.., with partial or total
replacement for those that just do not encourage the coupling of the economic
structure with those that yield long term growth.
In short, the evolution of colonial Venezuelan economy was subject to two
elements over three centuries. These two elements were its geographical location
as on the facade of the Caribbean and its connection through that sea, as a
supplier of tropical fruits to the Atlantic market. Sometimes these factors combined
virtuously to expand production and trade and other negatively, causing disruption
and contraction of the economic activity. The latter occurred whenever the war
between European powers obstructed foreign trade, the engine that drove the latecolonial economy. By the end of the Colony, the General Captain of Venezuela had
achieved a remarkable progress. To quantify this evolution there is no other way
that to use an indirect method and being unorthodox in their application as we
already explained. The other option is to do nothing, and that seems even worse.
We faced three problems; the first, was to made a series of population,
second, was to build a series of the GDP and the latter, was to obtain a price
index that would allow us deflect current prices. We want to underline that the
result is a simple exercise an approximation; it could indicate a trend and therefore,
subject to errors and corrections in the future. We will concentrate in the
performance of GDP and the evolution of population for the period beginning in
1783 and concluded in 1829. In order to understand the progression of the
economy, we divided it in two phases, and subsequently we display a single series
covering the entire period. The first phase refers to the period 1783-1810, the
strictly late-colonial period, preceding the dissolution of the colonial bond. The
second refers to the Independence war and the political experience of the Great
Colombia, which concludes in 1830 with the birth of the Republic of Venezuela.
This second period is highly complex, because between 1811 and 1821 the war of
Independence was fought in Venezuela’s territory causing destruction of all kinds
and a widespread disorder in the public administration.
69
Though, some royal troops keep battling, the great military campaigns ended with
the Battle of Carabobo in 1821,
from that moment on Venezuela began to
organize effectively as part of the Great Colombia. We selected 1783 as the
starting date for a simple reason: for that period we have some estimates of the
population and foreign trade, allowing us to build the series. Then, in Table 7, we
show the data.
Table 7 POP and GDP
Pob
1783
1784
1785
1786
1787
1788
1789
1790
1791
1792
1793
1794
1795
1796
1797
1798
1799
1800
1801
1802
1803
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
586.736
599.281
611.826
624.371
636.915
649.460
662.005
674.550
687.095
699.640
712.185
724.730
737.275
749.820
762.365
774.910
787.455
800.000
805.441
810.882
816.323
821.764
827.205
832.646
838.087
843.528
848.969
GDP Current
Millions de Bs.
88,10
92,42
95,46
104,55
100,59
102,93
101,00
100,00
110,92
127,79
120,09
129,18
111,84
117,62
123,40
106,07
110,56
115,05
98,51
128,04
124,37
116,36
107,21
116,36
121,54
98,27
125,52
GDP
GDP per cápita Deflactor
1984
Current Bs
1984
millions
150,15
4,20
2.096,31
154,22
4,75
1.944,53
156,02
4,94
1.933,03
167,45
4,76
2.198,39
157,93
3,66
2.749,66
158,49
3,66
2.813,62
152,57
3,66
2.760,87
148,25
3,66
2.733,53
161,43
3,66
3.032,03
182,65
5,12
2.495,13
168,62
3,66
3.282,70
178,25
4,76
2.716,29
151,69
3,66
3.057,18
156,86
3,66
3.215,18
161,86
3,75
3.294,12
136,88
3,11
3.412,73
140,40
3,29
3.357,99
143,81
5,12
2.246,38
122,31
3,31
2.978,76
157,90
4,92
2.604,18
152,35
4,54
2.741,69
141,60
4,62
2.516,41
129,61
3,66
2.930,62
139,75
3,66
3.180,74
145,02
4,57
2.658,72
116,50
4,54
2.166,32
147,85
4,62
2.714,50
GDP per
cápita
1984
3.572,83
3.244,77
3.159,44
3.520,97
4.317,15
4.332,25
4.170,46
4.052,38
4.412,83
3.566,30
4.609,33
3.748,00
4.146,60
4.287,94
4.320,92
4.404,04
4.264,36
2.807,97
3.698,30
3.211,54
3.358,58
3.062,20
3.542,80
3.820,04
3.172,37
2.568,17
3.197,41
GDP per
cápita
dollars 1990
1.064,07
966,36
940,95
1.048,62
1.285,74
1.290,24
1.242,05
1.206,88
1.314,23
1.062,12
1.372,76
1.116,23
1.234,94
1.277,04
1.286,86
1.311,62
1.270,02
836,27
1.101,43
956,46
1.000,26
911,99
1.055,12
1.137,69
944,80
764,86
952,26
70
1810
1811
1812
1813
1814
1815
1816
1817
1818
1819
1820
1821
1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
1829
854.410
847.050
839.691
832.332
824.973
817.614
810.255
802.895
795.536
788.177
780.818
773.459
766.100
778.484
790.868
803.252
815.637
828.021
840.405
852.789
115,63
91,91
89,63
87,20
80,90
101,79
101,57
103,37
104,14
101,09
98,78
101,22
103,65
122,60
119,97
110,56
143,96
108,15
105,25
105,40
135,33
108,51
106,74
104,77
98,06
124,50
125,36
128,75
130,91
128,26
126,51
130,87
135,30
157,49
151,69
137,64
176,50
130,61
125,24
123,59
4,59
3,66
4,13
4,13
4,13
4,19
4,39
3,60
3,78
4,19
4,27
4,42
5,36
5,33
5,68
5,79
5,56
5,00
4,45
4,57
2.516,55
2.512,39
2.172,04
2.113,16
1.960,49
2.432,22
2.313,71
2.871,60
2.758,43
2.415,50
2.311,80
2.290,46
1.935,32
2.301,72
2.113,03
1.907,95
2.588,94
2.161,05
2.365,99
2.308,61
2.945,36
2.966,05
2.586,72
2.538,84
2.376,42
2.974,78
2.855,53
3.576,55
3.467,39
3.064,66
2.960,74
2.961,33
2.526,20
2.956,67
2.671,78
2.375,28
3.174,14
2.609,90
2.815,30
2.707,13
877,19
883,35
770,38
756,12
707,75
885,95
850,44
1.065,17
1.032,66
912,72
881,77
881,95
752,35
880,56
795,71
707,41
945,32
777,28
838,45
806,24
Sources: Cálculos Propios para la construcción de la serie
The colonial economy grew with relative strength or preserved a high level of
income per capita from 1783 to about 1799. Since 1797, the wars of Spain against
England, and other difficult situations arisen as a consequence of the shortage of
manpower, the lack of roads and the impossibility of storing a highly corruptible
product as cocoa, brought structural difficulties, limiting the ability of colonial
agriculture to sustain in time an expansive growth. Therefore, following the results
of our research, from 1800 to 1810 the economy enters a phase of stagnation and
decline, although in some years of this last period, the exports are able to recover
its dynamism. The average GDP per capita for the period 1783-1799 is 1.193, 57
(1990 International dollars), while for the decade 1800-1810, it reached $ 958.03.
The graph shown below, with a 5-year moving average shown the evolution of the
income per capita, which grows from 1783 to 1788 and from there it stabilized, until
it begins to decline from 1800. It is worth noting here that the development of GDP
71
for the period 1783-1829 has a high correlation coefficient with the foreign trade,
which is equal to 0.8810, situation, as we have clarified, we consider a
disadvantage of the series presented for the period. Likewise, the deflator is based
mainly in the export prices of major commodities, with the most complete set of
prices based on indigo.
Graph 8
1.600,00
GDP per capita dollars 1990
1783-1810
1.200,00
800,00
400,00
Sources : Cálculos Propios.
Another interesting aspect is the performance of the external sector; graph 9
shows the estimated we have used, expressed in millions of currents bolivars and
a moving average of 5 years, for exports plus imports, for the period 1783-1810. As
it can be seen, using a five-year moving average, foreign trade expands until the
end of the XVIII century and then stabilized with a very slight tendency to decrease
and strong fluctuations from 1797, as a consequence of the European war and its
impact on colonial trade
72
1810
1809
1808
1807
1806
1805
1804
1803
1802
1801
1800
1799
1798
1797
1796
1795
1794
1793
1792
1791
1790
1789
1788
1787
1786
1785
1784
1783
0,00
Graph 9
70.000.000
60.000.000
Export + Import in current BS
1783-1810
50.000.000
40.000.000
30.000.000
20.000.000
10.000.000
1783
1784
1785
1786
1787
1788
1789
1790
1791
1792
1793
1794
1795
1796
1797
1798
1799
1800
1801
1802
1803
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
1810
0
Fuente Cálculos Propios. La Intendencia en Venezuela de Juan Andreo García y Yoston
Ferrigni . La Crisis Del Régimen Colonial en Venezuela Tomo I
Exports in volumes, as shown in the table below, diminished between 1786 and
1800, with the exception of coffee, that slowly begins to replace cocoa as the main
exportation product. In fact, by the time of the dissolution of Gran Colombia,
coffee ranks as the leading export product and by the end of nineteen century, it
represents about 70% of all exports and about half of the hectares of land under
production. A second interesting element is that for late eighteenth century,
Venezuelan exports had achieved a high degree of diversification through the
development of cotton, indigo, tobacco and the aforementioned coffee. While the
competitiveness of Venezuela in both indigo and cotton was very low compared to
other world producers, we must also give credit to local farmers and ranchers as
able to exploit the favorable situation of increasing demand for these goods in the
European market and England, where the industrialization process
was
expanding.
73
Table 8
1786-90
Cacao en
Fanegas
1791-95
1796-1800
431.215
377.106
274.766
1.470.116
3.590.369
1.380.073
Algodón en
libras
337.102
1.704.512
139.564
Café en libras
93.396
1.090.512
2.250.443
Tabaco en
libras
365.109
1.432.530
809.028
Azúcar en
libras
2.057
29.158
25.176
Añil en libras
Sources: La Intendencia en Venezuela de Juan Andreo García. Los datos de las dos
primeras columnas se corresponden con el comercio hacia y desde la metrópoli. El último
incluye países neutrales.
The period covering 1810-1829 is quite complicated, because of the war state and
continuous reorganization of public administration, sometimes in the hands of
Republicans (patriots) and another under the control of the Realists (monarchists).
This makes very difficult to obtain "national" figures of import, export, taxes, etc.
However, for the period in study, we have extensive data of foreign trade through
the ports of La Guaira and Puerto Cabello, the main ports of the Captaincy and the
province of Caracas, as well as information on the collection of taxes on foreign
trade and of import and export rights in the various ports enabled by the Captaincy
and later by the Republic. The previous data and using the work of Professor
Yoston Ferrigni on the performance of the Venezuelan colonial economy between
1770 and 1830, allowed us to make an estimated value of Venezuela's total foreign
trade for 1810-1830. The time comprising 1810-1829 is crossed by major events
74
such as the breaking of the colonial link, military operations during the war of
Independence in Venezuela until the victory in the Battle of Carabobo (1821), the
formation and destruction of the First and Second Republics and the creation of
Gran Colombia, of which Venezuela was a Department from the political and legal
point of view. As for the previous period, we first show the performance of GDP per
capita in 1990 dollars.
Graph 10
GDP per capita dollars 1990
1811-1829
1.200,00
900,00
600,00
300,00
0,00
1811181218131814181518161817181818191820182118221823182418251826182718281829
Sources: Cálculos Propios
The GDP per capita suffers a significant drop between 1811 and 1814. This period
included the tougher years, from a military point of view, because they involved all
military operations against the Republic unleash by Jose Tomas Boves, a “blanco
de orilla”, born in Oviedo Spain in 1782. During that time also General Simon
Bolivar proclaimed the Decree of War to the Death.
Those years were of merciless war and cruelty reached unprecedented levels
with executions of civilians and prisoners of war committed on both sides.
Venezuelan historiography, rightly, judge Boves as the first popular military
caudillo who emerged in Venezuela, even today some left opinion journalist
75
experts on historical affairs and some academics groups have tried to rescue his
figure as the first chief of Venezuelan democracy or as leader of popular struggles
against dominant social groups. In this regards, it is important the approach of
Professor Roberto Lopez Sanchez in an article entitled " El Protagonismo Popular
en la Historia de Venezuela” because he adequately summarized the dominant
interpretation about the early years of the War of Independence. The war opened
by the aristocracy (“mantuanaje”) to dissolve the colonial link, faced abruptly and
immediately the opposition of caste and a breakdown of the social colonial order. It
revealed how the deep were the social contradictions and the intense hate
between white and pardos that were nested in the Captaincy, where belonging to a
particular ethnic group determine its social status. There were two clearly
identifiable foes: the realist (monarchic) led by Boves, that incorporated the
zambos, Negroes slaves, mulattoes… that mean “the mixed race people”. The
other side aggregates essentially the white Creoles. War quickly takes an intensely
ferocious turn, with attempts and threats by Boves's colored troops, to literally
destroy the white population; to this the Patriots responded with the same brutality.
The war moved swiftly, with the advancing of Boves’ army, from the plains of the
country (llanos), to densely populated areas and agricultural production of the
Coastal – Mountain area. The production and the trade activities were affected
considerably; however, the widespread of destruction of productive activities
described by Venezuelan historiography is an exaggeration. However it is clear
that economic activity contracted intensely during 1812-1814, but recovered
quickly from 1815 to 1817 and then back again, with some growth surges in 1823
and 1826. Real income per capita went from 883.35 (1990 dollars) in 1811 to an
average of income 744.74 (1990 dollars) for the period 1812-1814. Seven years
later, until the conclusion of the war, or at least of the major military operations at
Carabobo in 1821, the average income is 930.09 (1990 dollars). However, the
trend in GDP per capita for the period 1814-1829 was a declining one, being the
average 849.03 (1990 dollars). Foreign trade was depressed until 1823, when he
began to grow, with fluctuations, until 1827 then suffered a sharp drop with
stabilization until 1829.
76
Graph 11
Foreign Commerce ( export + import) current BS
1811-1829
70.000.000
60.000.000
50.000.000
40.000.000
30.000.000
20.000.000
10.000.000
0
1811 1812 1813 1814 1815 1816 1817 1818 1819 1820 1821 1822 1823 1824 1825 1826 1827 1828 1829
Serie1
Fuente: Cálculos Propios y Yoston Ferrigni . La Crisis del Régimen Colonial en Venezuela
Tomo II
Finally we try to corroborate the series presented in this section. Any historical
time series not only have to use an appropriate and well developed methodological
technique; an historical series of national accounts must verify its advantages by
representing quantitatively a qualitative reality, otherwise it is only a good
methodological exercise.
Professor Yoston Ferrigni, trying to prove his argument that the war of
Independence did not produce the destruction and ruin of the economy, which has
become a common place “a Venezuelan historiography obsession”, uses a
method, which is from our point of view, very effective. He takes from the
accounting books, the data for sales values, volumes and prices, of the cocoa
produced in for different “haciendas” of Venezuela. They are the Haciendas de las
Monjas de la Inmaculada Concepción de Caracas, that is: Haciendas La Tadino y
Guacarapa in Ocumare, Santa Teresa in Santa Teresa del Tuy and Ocumare in
los Valles de Ocumare of Costa. Of the four Haciendas examined, three of them
77
produced exclusively cocoa, while the fourth produced cocoa and other products
such as rice, beans, brown sugar etc., this last one is useful to know the evolution
of agricultural production for the domestic market. Cocoa was not only an
exportation product; approximately 25% of production was consumed locally. Even
if the sample is small, its geographical location is very useful because the
Haciendas were located in the core region of agricultural production. From the
work of Professor Ferrigni we only took cocoa sales volumes (fanegas), values
(converted from pesos to bolivares) and the wholesale prices from 1800 to 1829.
To understand the evolution of the economy of Venezuela between 1800 and
1832, we are showing in table 9 the result obtained by the method of Professor
Ferrigni, (we could define it as a microeconomic approach) together with the data
of the series macroeconomic (GDP per capita in current bolivares
Table 9
RELACION DE LAS CUENTAS DE LAS HACIENDAS DE LA INMACULADA
CONCEPCION Y PIB per Cápita
1800
1801
1802
1803
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
1810
1811
1812
1813
1814
1815
1816
1817
1818
Ventas de Cacao
Valor en Bs
21.923,20
25.157,00
59.578,65
43.667,00
38.547,10
50.402,15
103.122,90
36.890,40
63.051,10
66.183,10
33.868,85
17.220,70
23.287,05
26.167,00
57.436,25
100.716,25
100.232,50
59.569,30
65.320,30
fanegas
vendidas
383,22
455,29
589,32
339,35
229,41
650,63
1066,41
445,26
990
808,11
483,42
339,09
440,82
473,21
745
802
781
605,85
600,28
Precios en pesos
de la fanega de cacao
10,88
10,84
19,9
25,68
33,21
15,25
19,26
19,3
12,87
16,8
13,86
10,12
10,4
10
15,58
24,65
25,98
19,53
21,28
PIB per cápita
BS corrientes
143,81
122,31
157,90
152,35
141,60
129,61
139,75
145,02
116,50
147,85
135,33
108,51
106,74
104,77
98,06
124,50
125,36
128,75
130,91
78
1819
1820
1821
1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
1829
1830
1831
1832
70.931,30
75.057,20
60.150,60
59.809,65
76.366,60
65.563,50
71.185,80
100.925,65
70.562,50
84.478,05
63.300,00
87.364,25
46.161,80
58.215,00
614,15
669,5
560,09
582,6
668,56
530,73
603,52
882,00
731,5
901,87
563,6
902,4
597,94
560,92
23,28
21,75
20,22
20,62
22,87
24,11
22,93
20,64
18,88
18,12
20,74
17,76
15,7
19,52
128,26
126,51
130,87
135,30
157,49
151,69
137,64
176,50
130,61
125,24
123,59
130,48
121,38
133,92
Fuente: Cálculos Propios y Yoston Ferrigni. La Crisis del Régimen Colonial en Venezuela
Tomo II
79
Graph 12 Cacao sold in current Bs.
Ventas de Cacao en Bs corrientes de las Haciendas de la
Inmaculada
Concepcion de Caracas 1800-1829
120.000,00
100.000,00
80.000,00
60.000,00
40.000,00
20.000,00
1800
1801
1802
1803
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
1810
1811
1812
1813
1814
1815
1816
1817
1818
1819
1820
1821
1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
1829
0,00
Serie1
5 Per. Media Mobile (Serie1)
Fuente: Cálculos Propios y Yoston Ferrigni. La Crisis del Régimen Colonial en
Venezuela Tomo II
80
Grafico 13 Cacao sold in fanegas units
Ventas en fanegas de cacao de las Haciendas de la Inmaculada
Concepcion de
Caracas 1800-1829
1.200,00
1.000,00
800,00
600,00
400,00
200,00
1800
1801
1802
1803
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
1810
1811
1812
1813
1814
1815
1816
1817
1818
1819
1820
1821
1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
1829
0,00
volumen ventas en fanegas
5 Per. Media Mobile (volumen ventas en fanegas)
Source Cálculos Propios y Yoston Ferrigni .La Crisis del Régimen Colonial en Venezuela
81
Graph 14 Prices cocoa by fanega in pesos.
Precios Promedios al mayor en Pesos por Fanega de las ventas de las Haciendas de La
Inmaculada Concepcion de Caracas 1800-1829
35,00
30,00
25,00
20,00
15,00
10,00
5,00
1800
1801
1802
1803
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
1810
1811
1812
1813
1814
1815
1816
1817
1818
1819
1820
1821
1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
1829
0,00
Serie1
5 Per. Media Mobile (Serie1)
Fuente: Cálculos Propios y Yoston Ferrigni. La Crisis del Régimen Colonial en Venezuela
Tomo II.
82
Grafico 15
GDP per capita dollars de 1990
1800-1829
1200,00
1000,00
800,00
600,00
400,00
200,00
Serie1
5 Per. Media Mobile (Serie1)
Fuente: Cálculos Propios
83
1829
1828
1827
1826
1825
1824
1823
1822
1821
1820
1819
1818
1817
1816
1815
1814
1813
1812
1811
1810
1809
1808
1807
1806
1805
1804
1803
1802
1801
1800
0,00
As can be seen in the previous graphs (12, 13, and 14) and the next (16), and
although we cannot speak of a correlation between the variables, GDP per capita
fluctuations matched with the variations observed in the accounts books of the
haciendas. Sales values and volume have strong oscillations in the decade
preceding the Independence from Spain and so the price of a fanega bulk of cocoa
in Caracas. The military situation in Europe, complicating the Venezuelan foreign
trade and the loss of metropolitan market were troubles added to the economy's
structural impediments to sustain prolonged growth and diversification shown in the
last two decades of the eighteenth century. War produces a significant contraction
in the period 1811-1814, which is also reflected in the sales trends, volumes and
prices of cocoa from the haciendas, but there wasn´t a collapse of the economy as
usually is claim by the Venezuelan historiography.
Grafico 16 GDP and Trades of Cocoa of the Haciendas in logarithm 1800-1832
Comportamiento del PIB en Bs corrientes y ventas en Bs de las
haciendas de la Inmaculada Concepcion
datos en logaritmos 1800-1832
8,20
5,20
8,15
5,00
8,10
4,80
8,05
8,00
4,60
7,95
4,40
7,90
4,20
7,85
4,00
7,80
3,80
1800
1801
1802
1803
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
1810
1811
1812
1813
1814
1815
1816
1817
1818
1819
1820
1821
1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
1829
1830
1831
1832
7,75
pib
ventas
84
Fuente: Cálculos Propios y Yoston Ferrigni. La Crisis del Régimen Colonial en Venezuela
Tomo II
The development of the coffee economy continues, of course with a contraction in
investment. However, from 1815 and once the most intense phase of the war was
over, the economy returned to its regular movement determined by international
market and internal economic conditions. Likewise, the haciendas improved their
sales accounts. That is, the war apparently has no lasting effects on the
Venezuelan economy.
To resume, it is true we cannot establish an accurate a correlation between the
results of the accounting books of the Haciendas and the macroeconomic
aggregates for now, but we can say that we find congruence between the
performance of GDP and GDP per capita and the microeconomic level,
represented by the haciendas analyzed. This is suggestive field of studies where it
would be possible to make a more rigorous research with a larger sample, in a
more extensive territory or including a longer period of time, which combined with
appropriated methodologies, could help to establish the performance of
Venezuela’s economy during the period treated in this section with a high degree
of confidence.
The demographic dimension of war is another important aspect because of its
relationship with the economy. The casualties of civilians and military in the war are
difficult to enumerate, but is not impossible to provide an overall estimate. Let's
start by clarifying that figures of dead reported by modern historiography are of
300,000 people; the author Restrepo in his “Historia de la Revolución de Colombia”
(History of Colombia’s Revolution) estimated 250,000 dead in Venezuela and
Agustin Codazzi valued it at 200,000 deceased in the war of Independence, plus
62,000 in the Caracas’ earthquake of 1812 and in various epidemic diseases
between 1818 and 1838. All of them look to us excessive, possibly increased to
85
enhance the heroic and mythic dimension of Independence. The armies that fought
in Venezuela were numerically very modest and a very limited in firepower, with no
large artillery train and the bloodiest battles occurred in 1811-1814.From those
early years there were long parentheses between military campaigns, where both
parties try to regain strength and organize their logistical and administrative lines.
To evaluate losses in
population we started by estimating the military casualties;
for that purpose we analyzed 73 battles or combats from the total of 80 that
occurred in the Venezuelan territory, including a couple fought in Colombia with
extensive participation of Venezuelan troops. To make calculation we assume,
based on available data, that between 95% and 98% of the troops in both sides
(royalists and republicans) were composed mainly by Venezuelan until 1815. With
the arrival of the expeditionary forces that year, commanded by Marshal Morillo,
the percentage of Venezuelan militia was reduced to a 70%, as illustrated by the
composition the Royal army before the Battle of Carabobo. We applied a death
rate of 20%; this includes 11% deaths in combat, 22% of deaths caused by injuries
and 66% by diseases, accidents, natural and otherwise. We arrived at this figures,
using the historical experience of the Napoleonic armies in battle, the French army
during the Crimean War and the work of Colonel T. N Dupuy52 (49). According to
our calculations, the total Venezuelan military deaths (royalists and republicans)
was 60,687 and if we include losses by guerrilla operations against and in favor of
the Republic, made by Venezuelans along with other battles and a few naval
operations, the figure would reach 65,000 deaths. It's a huge number, accounting
for over 8% of the population in 1800, but we are far from the hundreds of
thousands of casualties reported by patriotic historiography. Below there are a
table and graphs with estimates obtained from the battles
52
. See: Rory Muir Tactics and The Experience of Battle in the Age of Napoleon. y Colonel T. N. Dupuy
Numbers, Prediction and War.
86
TABLE 10 Venezuelan soldiers in service in Royal and Republican Units, Number of
Battles and average participants.
Soldados Venezolanos en Servicio republicano y Realista, Número de Batallas
y promedio de militares en las mismas entre 1811-1823
1811-1812
Cantidad
de
Batallas
5
Perdidas
muertos
venezolanos
5.738
Promedio
ejercito
Republicanos
3.140
Promedio
ejercito
realista
2.900
Soldados y Oficiales
En Batallas
Republicanos
15.700
Soldados y Oficiales
en Batallas
Realistas
14.500
1813-1815
37
37.217
1.843
3.289
68.191
121.693
1815-1816
7
1.589
622
1.000
4.354
7.000
1817-1819
15
9.947
1.864
2.874
27.960
43.110
1820-1823
9
6.196
2.364
2.553
21.276
22.977
Totales
73
60.687
1.967
2.523
143.562
184.194
Periodo
Fuente: Cálculos Propios de los datos de las Batallas de la Independencia tal como aparecen
en Daniel Pilo. Un Breve Paseo por la Historia de Venezuela .Puede obtenerse en la Web
en: http://www.auyantepui.com/historia/batallas.html.
87
Batallas en porcentajes combatidas en Venezuela entre 18111823
60
50
40
30
Serie1
20
10
0
1811-1812
1813-1815
1815-1816
1817-1819
1820-1823
Fuente: Cálculos Propios.
Perdidas en porcentajes de venezolanos patriotas y realistas
entre 1811-1823
70,00
60,00
50,00
40,00
30,00
Serie1
20,00
10,00
0,00
18111812
18131815
18151816
18171819
18201823
Fuente: Cálculos Propios.
As shown in the Table, the average of troops and officials per battle, both
Republicans and Royalists was really small compared with the Napoleonic wars
and the various wars of seventeenth and eighteenth century in Europe and
approximately 50% of the clashes occur during 1813-1815. The war, in fact, lost
intensity with the death Boves, at the Battle of Urica, on December 14, 1814. The
88
arrival of the Spanish expeditionary forces and of Morillo initiates phase of the
regularization of the conflict. The deaths of Venezuelan soldiers, both on royalists
and republicans sides, in combat or as a result of wounds and diseases,
corresponds to 18.51% of those who participated in the battles studied, but if we
include the naval fighting and other minor clashes, the figure is 19.8%. Another
important aspect is the immense popularity of Boves, whose charismatic presence
was able to attract a large number of Venezuelans from the castes to the royalist
camp. It is worth remembering here that at its best moment, the army of the
Liberator Simón Bolivar when was equipped and ready, including a core of British
troops of 1.200 at the beginning of Carabobo campaign, had about 12.000 men,
the equivalent of one Napoleonic division, and of them, about 5000 took part in the
Battle of Carabobo, with 200 dead or wounded, according to the battle report sent
by Bolivar to the Congress. The losses of the civilian population, if we include the
Caracas´ earthquake, whose blast and damage affected even the west of the
country including the city of Merida (in the Venezuela’s Andes) possibly reach the
figure of 40.000, of which only 15.000 in the earthquake; the rest was due to
executions and massacres made by both sides, migration to the East by the
population of Caracas running from the advance of royalist troops of Boves, which
caused heavy casualties in Caracas and neighbors towns, the possible increase in
the homicide rate as a result of the groups of uncontrolled soldiers that roamed the
villages and towns for food and other goods to steal. Ultimately, the losses for of
the war of Independence may be in the order of 100,000 to 110,000 (59% military
and 41% civilians) of which about 15,000 in the earthquake. About 60% of losses
were concentrated in the years 1811-1814, when the economy suffered a sharp
contraction. In the above figure it should be added a few thousand of Spaniards
and royalist Creoles who left the country because of the war. This figure is far from
those used today, but still extremely high, accounting for almost 14% of the
population in 1810. Another issue worth to mention is the large number of
Venezuelans who remain loyal the King and the institutions of the Spanish crown
until the end. These Venezuelans are still today are invisible part of the story.
89
To conclude this section, it is important to mention the destructive sequel left
by fighting on the wealth of the country. The national stock of capital was heavily
concentrated in the haciendas estates, with its plantations of cocoa, coffee and
other various fruits, seeds, infrastructure, tools, mills, etc., also in the Hatos and
their herds of cattle, mules, horses, oxen, etc. That wasn´t exclusively an
agricultural economy, but also based on livestock production. Then, about 1/4 of
working population and a 1/4 of the national product originated in the livestock
sector and this sector was the more damaged by war. Royalists and Republicans
armies marched on horses, mules were exported to be interchanged by provisions,
and cattle were the basic food for the troops. When the army commanded by
General Paez moved toward the battle line included 2 or 3 horses per each
mounted rider and huge herds of cattle as logistics support. The war was fought
primarily using the livestock capital and this is sector suffered the most destruction
(deplation) and not the agricultural sector that remained relatively safe despite
embargoes and confiscations imposed by the two sides to finance the war. The
livestock sector was essential in the colonial economic structure, as the same was
largely the result of the linkage with the export economy of primary goods.
According to Depons, who was an acute observer, in 1804 in Venezuela there
were 1,200,000 cattle, 180,000 horse and 90,000 mules. Codazzi, meanwhile,
suggested, based on reports of the time, that there were left 256,600 head of cattle
by the end of the war in 1823. Losses produced by war, at prices of 1830, would
amount to Bs 80,761,734, not including those caused by the potential production
not achieved during those years of war. In short, an educated guess could allow us
to deduct that half of the livestock of the country was consumed during the War of
Independence.
90
Graph 17
GDP per capita dollars 1990( 1783-1829)
1.500,00
1.400,00
1.300,00
1.200,00
1.100,00
1.000,00
900,00
800,00
700,00
600,00
500,00
International 1990 Dollars
5 Per. Media Mobile (International 1990 Dollars)
Fuente: Cálculos Propios
Finally graph 17 shows the performance of GDP per capita for the period 17831829, whereas can be seen the economy begins to decline before the outbreak of
war of Independence. We could say that the decision of the mantuanos aristocracy
to separate themselves from the Crown of Spain was in part made on the belief
that breaking the colonial bond would opened a new world of possibilities to give
renew dynamism to the economy.
91
The Coffee Century. 1830-1925
In 1830 General Jose Antonio Paez founded the Republic of Venezuela with strong
support from the so called “Conservative Oligarchy”. The main export product of
the Venezuelan economy, at time of the Republic formation was already the coffee,
even so it is important to note that cocoa and other goods were a significant part of
the country's exportation and reached about 40% of the total. Agricultural exports
will prevail until 1924-25, when exports of oil exceeded them. Let´s consider the
evolution of Venezuelan coffee exports using as reference the North American
market and comparing Venezuela with our neighbor Colombia53 (50), a country to
which Venezuela is bounded by culture, customs and history. The first graph refers
to exportation to the U.S. market from 1824 to 1912, nearly five years before the
start of oil exploitation. This series includes, for the period 1824-1838, a few tons of
Colombian coffee because Venezuela was part of Gran Colombia until 1830 and
the Department of Agriculture of the United States included in their statistics
practically until 1838 all the Venezuelan coffee under the name of “Colombia”.
53
Para la comparación entre la economia colombiana y venezolana ver Casetta Giovanni Colombia e
Venezuela. Il Progresso Negato 1870-1990 Giunti Editore 1991
92
Graph 18 Export Venezuelan coffee to USA in ton.
35.000,00
Exportaciones de cafe venezolano a los EEUU
en toneladas entre 1824-1912
30.000,00
25.000,00
20.000,00
15.000,00
10.000,00
5.000,00
1824
1826
1828
1830
1832
1834
1836
1838
1840
1842
1844
1846
1848
1850
1852
1854
1856
1858
1860
1862
1864
1866
1868
1870
1872
1874
1876
1878
1880
1882
1884
1886
1888
1890
1892
1894
1896
1898
1900
1902
1904
1906
1908
1910
1912
0,00
Exports to the U.S. market grew rapidly from 1871-72, corresponding to the first
globalization, thanks to good prices and to the maturity of investments in coffee
crops. However, by the end of the century XIX Venezuelan coffee sales fell or
stagnated as a consequence of a depression in prices, and even when these
exports recovered, Venezuelan coffee production continued relatively stagnant
because of the absence of new investment and the entry with force of Colombia
into the market, country that along with Brazil were natural competitors of
Venezuela.
93
Graph 18 Prices in dollar cents of Venezuelan coffee exports in USA.
Precios en Centavos de Dollar
por libra de cafe venezolano exportado en Estados Unidos
25
20
15
10
5
Fuente: Departamento de Agricultura de los Estados Unidos
The Venezuelan coffee economy grew relatively strong in the first half of the
nineteenth century mainly between the early years of the Republic and the
seventies of the nineteenth century. But especially from the second half of the
nineteenth century, the maturing of investments made possible a rapid expansion
of exports, which began to grow rapidly since 1872. As shown in the table below,
according to Codazzi only for 1839, the hectares of farmland under production
increased from about 43,000 hectares, of which 4,500 of coffee, to 270,000, of
which 108,000 of coffee in 1875. In 1900, there were a total of around 450.000
hectares under production, of which 190,000 dedicated to coffee. Coffee
production meant about half the land in production with about 250 million trees
94
1911
1908
1905
1902
1899
1896
1893
1890
1887
1884
1881
1878
1875
1872
1869
1866
1863
1860
1857
1854
1851
1848
1845
1842
1839
1836
1833
1830
1827
1824
0
distributed into 33.000 haciendas, by the first decade of the nineteenth century and
between 50-70% of exports.
Graph 19 Hectares cultivated coffee and all other products.
Hectareas Cultivadas: cafe y otros productos agricolas
1839-1937
800.000,00
700.000,00
600.000,00
500.000,00
400.000,00
300.000,00
200.000,00
100.000,00
0,00
1839
1875
Hectareas agricolas en produccion
1884
1900
1937
Hectareas de cafe en produccion
Fuente: Cálculos propios en base a datos de Agustín Codazzi e Izard Estadísticas Históricas
Source; Author´s calculation based on data from Historical Statiscs by Izard Codazzi
and Agustín
In the years from 1900-1937 the discovery and exploitation of oil produced a
fundamental change in the Venezuelan economy and this could suggest that the oil
activities sacked agricultural exports and therefore the coffee economy. Although it
is our impression that the coffee economy was already in full decline before the
arrival of black gold, because of the lack of investment, rudimentary technology
and least but not last the expansion production and exportation of Colombian
coffee, the main competitor of Venezuelan coffee. Hence the exploitation of oil
95
accelerated the irreversible crisis in the coffee sector replacing it as the main
primary commodity exports. In this regard, it can be seen in Graph 20 the sales of
Venezuelan and Colombian coffee in the U.S. market and the overall production
and exports.
Graph 20 Exports of Venezuelan and Colombian coffee to USA in pounds
Exportacion de Cafe colombiano y venezolano hacia el mercado
norteamericano en libras 1843-1912
80.000.000
70.000.000
60.000.000
50.000.000
40.000.000
30.000.000
20.000.000
10.000.000
0
venezuela
Colombia
Fuente: Departamento de Agricultura de los Estados Unidos
As we can see, using statistics from the Agriculture Department of the U.S. There
was a rapid increase in imports of Colombia coffee, especially from late nineteenth
century. By 1912, with the movement’s characteristics of commodities, Colombia
surpassed the Venezuela’s coffee exports to US. Colombian exports in 1912 were
62 million of pounds to 47 of Venezuela. Also there is a second important factor:
the price per pound of Colombian coffee tended to become cheaper, with respect
to Venezuela’s, this is especially true since during the late nineteenth century. In
96
1912 a pound of Colombian coffee exported to the United States cost on average
10.9 cents per pound and the Venezuelan, around 14. Was this difference because
of the quality? Possibly some Venezuelan coffee productions were far better than
the best Colombian coffee, but the basic element of this difference can be traced to
the different levels of productivity and competitiveness and also to the land tenure
structure. However, this last factor should not be over-emphasize, because most
of Venezuelan coffee was produced in the Andes and land tenure in this area was
quite similar to the Colombian, distributed in small and medium production units.
Graph 21 Prices of Venezuelan and Colombian Coffee in dollar cents USA market
Precios del cafe colombiano y venezolano en el mercado
norteamericano
en centavos de dolar 1843-1912
25
20
15
10
5
1843
1845
1847
1849
1851
1853
1855
1857
1859
1861
1863
1865
1867
1869
1871
1873
1875
1877
1879
1881
1883
1885
1887
1889
1891
1893
1895
1897
1899
1901
1903
1905
1907
1909
1911
0
Venezuela
Colombia
Fuente: Departamento de Agricultura de los Estados Unidos
The Colombian coffee opens its way at the expense of Venezuelan production not
only in the United States; production and exports from Colombia increased at a
much faster rate since the end of the nineteenth century, although starting from a
far more modest basis. Tables below show both the average production of
Venezuela and Colombia, during the period from 1881 to 1925. For the last half of
the series, Colombia produced twice Venezuelan coffee, while in the first five years
(1881-1885) it was only an 18% of the Venezuela’s production. Also, we are
including a Graph with the exports of both countries between1905-25and
97
Venezuelan coffee prices compared to average prices of coffee imported by the
United Sates.
Table 12 Coffee Productions in Tons
Cuadro 12
1881-85
1886-90
1891-95
1896-00
1901-05
1906-10
1911-15
1916-20
1921-25
Producción de Café en Ton.
Colombia Índice
Venezuela Índice
6,47
100,00
36,67
100,00
10,78
166,62
35,98
98,12
19,51
301,55
42,72
116,50
26,78
413,91
51,48
140,39
35,05
541,73
43,2
117,81
37,06
572,80
43,42
118,41
56,96
880,37
60,84
165,91
78,42 1212,06
60,54
165,09
127,62 1972,49
59,4
161,99
Fuente: Smith y Topik The Global Coffee economy
Source: Smith and Topik. The Global Coffee economy
98
Graph 22 Exports of Venezuela and Colombia en 1000 of TON
Exportaciones de Venezuela y Colombia en miles de Toneladas
1905-1925
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925
Colombia
Venezuela
Fuente: Smith y Topik The Global Coffee economy
99
Graph 23 Prices of Venezuelan coffee and USA coffee imports
Precios en Bs del cafe venezolano y precios en centavos de dolar
de las importaciones de cafe en los EEUU
1830-1935
25
3,00
2,50
20
2,00
15
1,50
10
1,00
5
0,50
0,00
1830
1833
1836
1839
1842
1845
1848
1851
1854
1857
1860
1863
1866
1869
1872
1875
1878
1881
1884
1887
1890
1893
1896
1899
1902
1905
1908
1911
1914
1917
1920
1923
1926
1929
1932
1935
0
Precio average de cafe importado por EEUU
Precios del cafe venezolano
Fuente: Departamento de Agricultura de los Estados Unidos, Izard Estadísticas Históricas
de Venezuela y Veloz Economía y Finanzas de Venezuela 1830-1944
The Venezuelan economy was not able to take full advantage of the first
globalization, occurred between 1870 and 1913 and stimulated by a reduction in
transport costs and by the industrialization of Europe and the United States. Below
table 13 shows the performance of Venezuelan external sector, taken from a
book of great interest and relevance “Tropical Development 1880-1913” edited by
W. Arthur Lewis in the far 1970, which shows the evolution of the exports of
tropical economies between 1883 and 1913. If excluding the West Indies (and in
this case does not include Cuba), Venezuela performance was very modest.
100
Table 13
Cuadro 13
Índice del valor de las exportaciones 1913
Asia
África
Tailandia
539 Occidental
Ceilán
523 Central
Indochina
426 Oriental
Indonesia
311 Egipto
India
235
Filipinas
212
1883=100
548
498
372
257
América
Ecuador
Brasil
México
Colombia
América Central
Perú
Venezuela
Antillas
Source: Tropical Development 1880-1913 edited by W. Arthur Lewis.
As shown, Venezuela had a discreet performance; if we average the index for
all the economies of the tropical America, including Venezuela, it is 295, twice the
Venezuela´s index. If we exclude Venezuela and the West Indies from the
average, the factor reaches 2.38. This is a reliable proof of the deficient
administration of the Venezuelan economy, at a time in which, the external sector
of the Latin America countries considered in the table grew at a similar rate than
World economy. Exports per capita remained stable between 1830 and 1870,
increasing thereafter until the last decade of the nineteenth century specifically until
1891, then declined sharply and begin to recover only from 1912. The volume of
coffee exports in kilos per capita, by contrast, remained relatively unchanged
between 1870 and 1924. We may conclude by affirming that Venezuela didn´t take
a great advantage of World economic growth in the first globalization; also it has
not been able to properly manage their natural resources and profit during the
second globalization. In both cases (first with the government of Cipriano Castro by
the end of the nineteen century and now with the Bolivarian Revolution) the country
assumed an introverted, nationalistic and statist inclination, fearful of losing
national sovereignty.
101
439
373
352
334
298
297
146
118
Graph 24 and 25
Coffe Export Per Capita 1872-1935
Kilos
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0,000
1872
1877
1882
1887
1892
1897
1902
1907
1912
Coffe Export Per capita
1917
1922
1927
1932
Exportaciones per capita en Bs 1830-1924
120
100
80
60
40
20
1830
1832
1834
1836
1838
1840
1842
1844
1846
1848
1850
1852
1854
1856
1858
1860
1862
1864
1866
1868
1870
1872
1874
1876
1878
1880
1882
1884
1886
1888
1890
1892
1894
1896
1898
1900
1902
1904
1906
1908
1910
1912
1914
1916
1918
1920
1922
1924
0
Serie1
6 Per. Media Mobile (Serie1)
Fuente: Para ambos gráficos 24 y 25, cálculos propios, Izard Estadísticas Históricas y
Veloz Economía y Finanzas de Venezuela 1830-1944.
While it is important to note that from 1917 begins the era of oil, we have to
remember that it was not until 1924-1925 that oil exports exceed traditional
exportations. Within seven years, Venezuela became one of the largest producers
and exporters of hydrocarbons. This didn’t mean that agricultural exports
disappeared from day to night, as seems implied by the Venezuelan
historiography. Yet in 1936 half of the workforce was employed in agriculture and
exports of major commodities such as coffee and cocoa, at least in volumes,
102
remained relatively stable. However, agriculture as main economic activity initiated
a cycle of irreversible decline.
.Graph 26: Agricultural and oil exports in current Bs
Exportaciones Agricolas y Petroleras en Bs 1905-1924
400.000.000,00
300.000.000,00
200.000.000,00
100.000.000,00
0,00
Petroleo
Agricultura
Fuente Cálculos Propios y Veloz Economía y Finanzas de Venezuela 1830-1944
Source: Calculations and Fast Equity Finance of Venezuela 1830-1944.
The economic transition that began in 1917 with the production of the first oil
wells
was completed in the early forties of the twentieth century, when the
structure of the Venezuela´s economy was that of an archetypal economy based
on oil production; the exportation of “the black gold” account for 90-95% of the
total. In 1917 the country began a transition process of extremely rapid
urbanization; the middle class became a social influential group in the framework of
the old rural society and new political ideas and concerns spread in all areas of
national life. The generation of ‘28” was born in the shadow of oil. This group of
university students from different social origins will become the core of civil and
democratic leadership that will govern the country from 1945 and again after the
setback produced by the Marcos Perez Jimenez military dictatorship interlude from
1948-1958. One of them, Don Romulo Betancourt is considered as the father of
Democracy. From their ranks emerged the leaders of the mass political parties, as
the social-democratic Acción Democrática (Democratic Action). In these years, the
yellow liberalism as a political banner lost its force in Venezuela and was replaced
by the social-democratic, social-Christian and the Marxism ideologies. The
generation of ‘28 intended, matured and finally reached, after countless
103
adventures, the realization of a democratic political system, first as a radical
experiment during 1945-1948, and after 1959, as a concrete system of political and
social conciliation. This generation is a byproduct of the changes that the oil wealth
brought to society from the very beginning; it surface in the transition between a
rural agricultural and urban oil producing society. This is the particular case where
the abundance of natural resources didn´t act as an evil politics destabilizing agent,
but rather bought a profound reconsideration of the national life and a big drive in
certain factions of the elites in power, but above all, in the new socio-economic
factors materialized under the expansion of oil revenues determined to overcome
the Venezuela of the old military caudillo and rural backwardness. The
modernization of the country and its integration in the western world on equal
footing was now a concrete possibility, thanks to oil wealth. Civilian leadership will
assume the challenge of modernizing the country from 1959.
As we did for the exports, we present data with reference to imports per capita,
which generally follows a similar trend to the exports.
Graph 27 Imports per capita in Bs.
Importaciones per capita en BS 1830-1924
120,00
100,00
80,00
60,00
40,00
20,00
1830
1833
1836
1839
1842
1845
1848
1851
1854
1857
1860
1863
1866
1869
1872
1875
1878
1881
1884
1887
1890
1893
1896
1899
1902
1905
1908
1911
1914
1917
1920
1923
0,00
importaciones en BS
6 Per. Media Mobile (importaciones en BS)
Fuente Cálculos Propios y Veloz Economía y Finanzas de Venezuela 1830-1944
104
On the other hand, it may be interesting to have a look at some important
factors such as import of capital goods, consumption of modern energy products
and the correlation between railways’ income and the product. These elements
could be helpful to understand the evolution of Venezuela´s economy.
Imports of capital goods from the United States, according to US statistics for
the period 1895-1906 are presented in the table 14. With these data of US import
along with those from Germany and England, we may infer to infer the behavior of
investment during those years and the fluctuation of the product. In order to
simplify the reading, we include only imports originating in the United States. The
trend shown here is roughly the one corresponding to the period in examination,
which was of deep economic downturn, corresponding with the last five years of
nineteenth and first decade of the twentieth centuries. We use data from import of
agriculture implements and manufactured goods with steel or iron.
Table 14
Cuadro 14
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
Agricultural
Implements
dólares
2506
6113
2112
909
1184
2652
3644
1378
1386
1100
2010
2181
Iron and Steel
Manufacture
dólares
516.071
471.437
441.310
241.490
305.998
227.287
256.001
285.823
136.677
322.506
393.440
500.533
TOTAL
en dólares
518.577
477.550
443.422
242.399
307.182
229.939
259.645
287.201
138.063
323.606
395.450
502.714
Fuente: Export Manufactures from the United States and their distribution by Articles and
Countries 1800-1906
105
No less important is the consumption of modern energy (fossil fuel and
hydroelectric) and an indicator of economic modernization and growth. For this
purpose we took the data from the working paper of Yanez, Mar Rubio and
Carrera: “Economic Modernization in Latin America and the Caribbean
between1890 and 1925: A view from the energy consumption”. We only took data
about Venezuela concerning of about the growth of modern of energy consumption
in tons oil equivalents (TOE) per 1000 inhabitants, for the periods 1890-1913,
1913-1925 and 1890-1925 and compared it with the behavior of the product and
the GDP per capita in 1984 prices. The results are shown in the table 15 below.
As it can be seen from the table, the behavior of Venezuelan macroeconomic
variables converge with it evolution of modern energy consumption, which
otherwise was one of the lowest in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Table 15
Cuadro 15
1890-1913
1913-1925
1890-1925
Pib per cápita
PIB
Tasa anual del crecimiento de
Tasa anual de crecimiento Tasa anual de crecimiento consumo de energía moderna
-1,81
-1,1
-1,3
2,21
2,86
5,6
-0,45
0,24
1
Fuente: Yáñez, Mar Rubio Carreras: Economic Modernization in Latin America and the
Caribbean between1890 and 1925 y calculos propios.
In the 23 years comprising the period 1890-1913, the income per capita, according
to our calculations felt by -1.81% and the GDP by -1.1%, both on an annual basis,
while the evolution of consumption energy also decreases but to a lesser extent, 1.3% on annual basis. For the period 1913-1925 this process is reversed and the
modern energy begins to grow, as well as the GDP and the GDP per capita. It
should be noted that oil production begins in 1917, being in that year of 1 million
barrels/year and in 1925 reached 20 million barrels. Probably the start of oil
exploitation had a significant impact on energy consumption and generally on the
economic growth that is concentrated in 12 years (1913-1925).
106
It also seems appropriate to use the economic performance of the railroad
companies
(income)
and
GDP
trend,
both
in
current
terms.
To
this
purpose we have chosen only 43 observations, from 1883 to 1925. We have to
remember that the discovery of oil led to a neglect or disinterest in continuing the
development of railways, which in fact had not achieved a great breakthrough in
Venezuela if it is compared to the rest of Latin America. In a very short time, thanks
to low prices of fuel, the abundance of asphalt and the ability to import vehicles of
all kinds, Venezuela began a major program of road construction and
transportation of goods, migrating from the droves of mules and rail to the transport
on wheels. To perform the exercise, we took as dependent variable the income of
the railroad companies and as the independent variable the data of GDP proposed
by the series in this work. The data are as follows:
Ingresos en miles PIB en Bolívares
de Bolívares
Corrientes
años
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
Ferrocarriles
441
1127
2348
1863
2305
3365
4701
4913
5925
4579
5970
6523
8371
9324
8253
7707
6779
393.512.140,55
434.993.368,41
425.477.998,37
443.430.390,23
419.039.354,11
428.296.070,43
435.249.100,52
450.366.286,42
432.264.918,09
407.718.097,38
458.041.878,62
453.208.573,35
505.614.051,99
465.069.251,84
504.628.839,65
517.193.606,99
436.625.024,17
107
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
7313
7311
6821
8466
9096
8163
8934
8994
8919
8781
9439
10790
12985
13266
12732
12747
12938
14344
13318
16410
18237
16724
16160
16657
18442
20474
467.383.022,85
469.014.447,91
458.037.887,82
511.050.861,24
541.811.392,62
577.372.405,85
600.521.333,56
605.421.615,28
636.876.066,66
665.476.038,31
699.318.975,84
700.086.469,24
798.033.513,68
852.779.885,11
994.634.951,98
1.057.490.779,07
1.059.804.059,08
1.150.379.503,64
1.275.097.494,73
1.458.318.386,12
1.531.629.985,85
1.178.953.200,32
1.181.382.375,16
1.235.726.763,23
1.380.732.360,47
1.524.654.029,21
Fuente Docutren Estadisticas Historicas y calculos propios
Resumen
Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple
Coeficiente de determinación R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error típico
Observaciones
0,921894018
0,849888581
0,846227327
1968,607068
43
108
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
1
41
42
Suma de cuadrados
899601560,6
158891965,3
1058493526
Coeficientes
4,574596279
1,28995E-05
Error típico
684,1515703
8,46657E-07
Regresión
Residuos
Total
Intercepción
Variable X 1
Promedio de los cuadrados
899601560,6
3875413,789
F
232,1304536
Estadístico t
0,006686525
15,23582796
Probabilidad
0,994697395
1,74958E-18
Valor crítico de F
1,74958E-18
Inferior 95%
Superior 95%
-1377,09753 1386,246723
1,11897E-05 1,46094E-05
Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0%
-1377,09753
1386,246723
1,11897E-05
1,46094E-05
Our interest is mainly focused on the statistics of the regression, which allow us to
conclude that there is an association or relationship between the earnings of the
railways and the estimate GDP proposed in the series. The three previous
observations (imports of capital goods, power consumption, and the relationship
between railway economic performance and GDP) are useful for evaluating the
precision of the estimates and to understand better the economic evolution of
Venezuela during these years. Below we are showing the graphs correspond to the
GDP and GDP per capita for the period 1830 -1925.
109
Graph 28
GDP millions Bolivares prices 1984 : 1830-1925
14.000,00
12.000,00
10.000,00
8.000,00
6.000,00
4.000,00
2.000,00
0,00
18301835184018451850185518601865187018751880188518901895190019051910191519201925
PIB en BS de 1984
Graph 29
GDP per capita Bolivares prices 1984 : 1830-1925
6.000,00
5.000,00
4.000,00
3.000,00
2.000,00
1.000,00
0,00
1830 1835 18401845 1850 18551860 1865 18701875 1880 188518901895 1900 19051910 1915 19201925
Fuente: Para graficos 28 y 29 calculos propios.
.
The Venezuelan economy during the nineteenth century did not achieve sustained
progress; the growth accomplished, was scarce and reversed as soon as
110
conditions on which it was based evaporate. The GDP growth during the
Guzmancismo and a few years later, was the product of positive factors, all of
temporary nature, among which the rise in coffee prices, investment in railways
and public building, but no less important the long period of internal peace, of
political stability and of an institutional modernization, atypical during the
nineteenth century Venezuela. Income remained around $ 1000 (1990 dollars),
from 1830 to 1900, that means, just at the level of subsistence with fluctuation
around this figure54. By the end of nineteenth century the country was again
involved in the usual internal wars and revolutions led by “caudillos”. The
nineteenth century was a disaster from the economic point of view; the per capita
income in 1900 was slightly lower than 1830 and growth prospects were virtually
none, half of the population had or was exposed to Malaria and Chagas’ disease.
Institutional disorder and civil war took over the country again after Guzman's
departure from power. During the administration of Cipriano Castro (1898-1908),
decline of the country accelerated. The coffee industry and overall economy were
stagnant and public finances a total disorder, as a result of costs incurred by war,
among them the Libertadora Revolution led by an alliance of anti-Castro leaders
that produced 40,000 dead. The government of General Castro also faced conflict
of every nature virtually with all the world powers of that time, the Venezuelan
coast were blocked by England and Germany during 1902 and the country
declared it insolvent and defaulted on foreign debt. In 1906 General Castro broke
relations with France and in 1908 with the United States, both because of
disagreements and disputes with companies from those nations that were
established in national territory. This behavior minimized the attraction of capital
and foreign investment. The government of General Juan Vicente Gomez, (who
gave a coup when Castro left the country for medical reasons), imposed order and
social peace and his Finance Minister, Dr. Roman Cardenas, began to reorganize
public finances by reducing dependence on customs revenue, balancing the
54
The data presented in the series for the pre-oil period, are in agreement with the proposal of what could
be the line poverty or subsistence. See Ancient and Pre-Modern GDP in the Roman Empire and Early
Modern Europe Elio Lo Cascio & Paolo Malanima, 2011 This Article is of high great methodology interest to
understand Latin American agricultural economies.
111
national budget and canceling the external and internal debt. Possibly this was the
only economic achievement before the discovery of oil.
In fact, the principle of balanced public budgets and surpluses in the annual
closing of the national treasury had a long life and became a dogma in the
management of public finances in Venezuela until the seventies of the twentieth
century, when the first boom in oil prices triggered again disorder in fiscal policy,
situation that endures to this day. But prudence in the controlling of Public Finance
was not
enough to overcome the impasse which suffered the Venezuelan
economy, which continued to languishing and was also now subject to looting by
General Juan Vicente Gomez, his family and close associated, who ran the
national economy as its particular pecuniary. General Gomez, during the 28 years
of his rule from 1908 to 1935 accumulated a fortune of 115 million Bolívares, about
0.6% of GDP in 1935. As a positive element, during those years, the cycle of civil
wars was closed and “caudillismo” was defeated militarily and politically. Gomez
governed the country with an iron hand, concluded the process of building a
Central State initiated during the administration of Castro, and monopolizes the use
of violence by founding the National Armed Forces, that replaced the regional
montoneras ( local armies) groups of nineteenth century exercised an strict control
over the country.
To conclude this section, we present a very rough approximation of what
could have been the country's wealth, using for this purpose the method the
inventory invested capital in various economic activities, adding an approximate
value of the residential private property and public buildings. Before the arrival of
Keynesianism and the calculation of income, economic power of a nation was
measured and compared in terms of wealth55 .World Bank and Credit Suisse had
recently made some estimates regarding private wealth and national wealth56 .
What we did was to extend and revise the estimates of wealth developed in 1918
by the Ministry of Development (Fomento). Thereon, we consider including a much
55
52 For the inventory of methods, see Corrado Gini in “L'ammontare and the Composizione della Richezza
delle Nazioni” UTET Torino 1962.
56
The Changing Wealth of Nations Measuring Sustainable Development in the New Millennium. World Bank
2011,Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2011
112
larger estimate of agricultural sector, that was carried out by Ministry of
Development, which was limited to assessing the capital invested in 8 products
(Coffee, Cocoa, Balata, Rubber, Coconuts, Bananas, Cotton and Sugarcane).
Also, we compared it with data published in the work of J. C. Stamp: “The Wealth
and Income of the Chief Power”, published in 1919, which in some cases, used the
same methodology used by the Ministry of Development. In order to make the data
comparable, we expressed them in UK Pounds and Venezuelan Bolivares.
Needless to say this is a simple approach, which aims to provide a somewhat
rudimentary notion of country´s wealth. It is important to underline that a significant
part of the country's wealth was concentrated in hands of foreign investors, as in
the case of railways, public services, fluvial transportation, mining, petroleum and
asphalt. Data from the private housing patrimony were calculated based on
412,063 units, the product of dividing the population of 1919 on an average of 6.5
persons per unit, this medium was obtained from censuses (1873-1936). We
assigned a value of 5000 bolivars, or $961 (currency exchange of the time),
equivalent of 10 years' wages of a farm worker. This can be considered extremely
low pricing, but the vast majority of homes in Venezuela were huts built with adobe,
thatched or straw roofs and like furniture had a few hammocks and stools. The so
called casonas or big houses were few and concentrated in the central areas of
cities or towns. The public buildings are mostly those built by Guzman Blanco
goverment, and valued according to prices of 1919.The inventory of products
corresponds to 6 months of imports. In this analysis we have not included the
financial wealth, by the absence of sufficient data on the origin of the holders of the
national debt. Because the lack of data on mortgages or liabilities of various
sectors we could only calculate the gross wealth.
Cuadro 17
1918-1919
Bolívares
Libras esterlinas Bolívares
Riqueza
per cápita
Libras
Per
cápita
Agricultura
367.113.043,00
14.539.130,42
137,06
5,43
Pecuaria
156.000.000,00
6.178.217,82
58,24
2,31
113
Industrias y Servicios
Públicos
Electricidad, Telégrafos
etc.
360.000.000,00
14.257.425,74
134,41
5,32
Comercio
400.000.000,00
15.841.584,16
149,34
5,91
Productos Forestales
10.400.000,00
411.881,19
3,88
0,15
Minas
Oro, Cobre y otros
23.000.000,00
910.891,09
8,59
0,34
Ferrocarriles
208.948.125,00
8.275.173,27
78,01
3,09
Transporte Marítimo
Fluvial y Cabotaje
20.150.000,00
798.019,80
7,52
0,30
42.481.230,00
1.682.424,95
15,86
0,63
2.060.315.000,00
81.596.633,66
769,23
30,46
Edificaciones Publicas
82.356.435,00
3.261.640,99
30,75
1,22
Inventario Productos
Importados
93.015.000,00
3.683.762,38
34,73
1,38
3.823.778.833,00
151.436.785,47
1.427,63
56,54
Petróleo y Asfalto
Viviendas privadas
Total
Fuente: Cálculos propios, Ministerio de Fomento, Goiticoa Veloz Venezuela 1919 y The
Wealth and Income of the Chief Power.
Wealth in Pounds
Cuadro 18
Millones
de Libras
Gran Bretaña
14500
Estados Unidos
42000
Alemania
16550
Riqueza per
cápita en libras
318
424
244
114
Francia
Italia
Austria Hungría
España
Bélgica
Holanda
Rusia
Suecia
Noruega
Dinamarca
Suiza
Australia
Canadá
Japón
Argentina
Venezuela
12000
4480
6200
2940
1200
1050
12000
940
220
500
800
1530
2285
2400
2400
151
303
128
121
144
157
167
85
168
90
176
205
318
300
44
340
57
Fuente: Stamp. The Wealth and Income of the Chief Power.
For the specific case of Venezuela the product in 1919 was 1,458.31 million of
Bolivars and wealth of 3.823, 77 million of current bolivars. The wealth per capita
was 1428 bolivars and the income 541 bolivars. That means that the accumulated
wealth was around 3 times higher than the product. Finally and not least, we show
a graph about the ratio of public debt/GDP from 1838-2005. It shows as the
country's finances remained in order from the time of Juan Vicente Gómez to the
first government of Carlos Andres Perez (period 1973-78), which corresponds with
the period of greater expansion of the economy. If we look more closely at the
ratio debt/GDP we could see the moments of greatest growth in the Republic are
those periods where finance are healthy and the ratio debt/GDP is low or shows a
tendency to decrease, and this was during the period of Guzman Blanco (18701888). By contrast, the fiscal mess and rising of public debt cause a contraction or
stagnation of the economy. Although not included in the graph, total public debt
should be around 50% of the GDP in 2011 and increasing fast. Still this is an issue
that needs to be study in detail, here we were limited to make an observation and
display the data in the anne
115
Graph 30 Ratio Debt/ GDP in %
180
160
Guerra Federal
Deuda/ PIB
1838-2005 en Porcentaje
140
Jaime Lusinchi
1983-88
120
Gobierno
Guzman
Blanco 1870-88
100
80
60
40
20
Fin del Monagato
Gobierno
Castro 1898-1908
Carlos Andres Perez
1974-78
Gobierno Gomez
1908-35
1838
1843
1846
1854
1857
1862
1868
1872
1886
1888
1890
1894
1896
1898
1901
1903
1905
1908
1910
1920
1930
1941
1943
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
0
Fuentes Cálculos Propios, Memorias de Hacienda varios años, La Economía venezolana en
los últimos 35 años BCV 1976, Hernández María F, et al. Determinantes y Vulnerabilidad
de la Deuda Pública en Venezuela 1970-2005 BCV.
116
Oil Time
The economy received by Juan Vicente Gomez was not very different from the
bucolic one of Jose Antonio Paez time, when he founded the Republic of
Venezuela. The major problem faced by the government of General Gomez was to
consolidate public finances. The Finance Minister, Roman Cardenas, who heads
that office from 1913 to 1922, made a major fiscal reform aimed to reduce
dependence on income from customs rents. In 1914, about 75% of incomes came
from the payment of customs rights. By 1921, the internal incomes (no customs
incomes) reached the 50%; and by 1930 year of the centenary of the death of the
Liberator Simón Bolivar, the foreign debt is canceled entirety. Moreover, the
national economy began to recover slowly from 1912, helped by the improvement
of coffee prices and by the social peace. However, in general terms the
Venezuelan economy did not have the means to undertake a sustained growth
over time and the crash between late nineteenth century and during the Castro
government was staggering. Between 1908 and 1917 both GDP and income had a
positive evolution, but far from the peaks reached between 1884 and 1890.
Table 19
Cuadro 19
PIB Millones
de Bs
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
Pib per
cápita
Bs de 1984
7.787,85
7.859,39
7.817,84
7.506,28
8.101,70
8.351,31
9.653,69
9.733,24
9.136,26
9.539,17
3.103,70
3.111,23
3.074,19
2.932,17
3.143,98
3.219,70
3.697,69
3.704,15
3.454,72
3.584,14
Fuente. Cálculos propios
117
That was the real condition of the Venezuelan economy when oil appeared on the
horizon. Overall, that was a stationary economy, in the classical sense, without
possibilities of capital accumulation and growth. Exploitation of oil completely
changed the economic landscape of the country and stimulated investment and the
economic growth, as shown in the graphs below, causing a relatively rapid and
profound break with the past. In the graph are shown the estimates of gross
investment
(public
and
private),
following
the
patterns
of
Venezuelan
historiography, from 1870 to 1935.
Graph 31 Gross Investments by Historical Period
Inversiones Brutas publicas y privadas por periodo Historico
en Bs corrientes
4.000.000.000,00
Gomecismo
3.500.000.000,00
3.000.000.000,00
2.500.000.000,00
2.000.000.000,00
1.500.000.000,00
liberalismo
1.000.000.000,00
Castrismo
500.000.000,00
0,00
Serie1
1870-1898
901.859.905,74
1898-1908
192.568.465,89
1908-1935
3.522.780.641,04
Fuente: Cálculos propios y Anuarios Estadísticos de Fomento
118
Foreign investment, the product and the per capita income per capita took off
rapidly as production and export of oil grew. During the time of the dictatorship
General Gomez the product increased by a factor of 3 and the income by 2 and
real consumption grew by 40%. These figures alone contradict the view that the
Venezuelan economy was expiring when the Dictator died in December 1935.
Rather, those years can be defined as transitional juncture between the agricultural
and oil economy. With respect to the transfer of Venezuelan subsoil to international
companies under adverse condition, an obsessive and constant criticisms of
historiography in Venezuela, we could also argued how a small country like
Venezuela (with 90% of the illiterate, 80% living in rural areas, without capital, and
only a few Universities with a total of 1000 students) could had manage by itself
the complex oil business, without the initial use of capital investment and foreign
technology. It is a half true that Gomez facilitated excessively the operations of oil
companies, especially in tax and legal aspects as new research on the topic
shows57, but is also an irrefutable fact that once Venezuelans learned the
management and techniques of the oil business, the balance was mostly beneficial
to the interests of the country.
Table 20
Cuadro 20
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
57
PIB Millones
de Bs
7.787,85
7.859,39
7.817,84
7.506,28
8.101,70
8.351,31
9.653,69
Pib per
cápita
Bs de 1984
3.103,70
3.111,23
3.074,19
2.932,17
3.143,98
3.219,70
3.697,69
Pib per cápita
dólares 1990
924,35
926,59
915,56
873,26
936,34
958,90
1.101,25
See the Book Mac Beth Juan Vicente Gomez and the oil companies in Venezuela 1908-1935
119
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
9.733,24
9.136,26
9.539,17
9.973,77
9.715,28
9.475,30
9.221,76
10.042,92
10.643,45
11.056,18
11.710,70
12.504,15
12.937,69
15.345,46
16.045,37
16.234,57
16.428,32
15.107,89
17.114,26
18.142,45
21.884,47
3.704,15
3.454,72
3.584,14
3.723,76
3.604,48
3.493,51
3.378,96
3.657,16
3.852,11
3.977,14
4.187,10
4.443,34
4.509,24
5.247,79
5.385,81
5.350,50
5.317,92
4.804,91
5.349,41
5.574,91
6.612,97
1.103,18
1.028,89
1.067,43
1.109,01
1.073,49
1.040,44
1.006,32
1.089,18
1.147,24
1.184,48
1.247,01
1.323,32
1.342,95
1.562,90
1.604,01
1.593,49
1.583,79
1.431,00
1.593,17
1.660,33
1.969,48
During the twentieth century Venezuelan oil economy will exhibit three stages or
phases in its evolution. The first, of fast growth with a great expansion of public
spending and investment that we may designate as Chinese growth pattern, from
about 1920 to 1958, Indeed this rapid growth was a result of the initial shock
caused by oil revenues in an economy with a low standard of living and income. A
second period of stable growth, from 1958 until 1978, characteristic of a mature oil
economy in an situation of a well-adjusted economy with a prudent fiscal policy,
low inflation and a strong currency linked to the dollar through oil; and the third and
last phase from 1978 to this day, marked by decline and we could describe as
post-oil period or collapse of the rent-depending capitalism. While in each of the
phases there are peaks and valleys, depending on the fluctuation of oil prices and
production volumes, our focus is on the trend or direction, displayed by the
evolution of income and output. The graphs 31-39, correspond to each of the
120
different phases. Both volume productions and prices, added to the tax applicable
to oil exploitation greatly influence the evolution of Venezuelan economy during the
twentieth century.
Graph 32 and 33
Grafico 32 y33
GDP millions prices 1984: 1920-1958
160.000,00
140.000,00
120.000,00
100.000,00
80.000,00
60.000,00
40.000,00
20.000,00
0,00
1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958
Fuente: Cálculos propios.
121
GDP per capita Bs prices 1984: 1920-1958
25.000,00
20.000,00
15.000,00
10.000,00
5.000,00
0,00
1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958
Fuente: Cálculos propios
Grafico 34, 35, 36, 37,39 y 40
GDP Millions prices 1984: 1959-1978
500.000,00
450.000,00
400.000,00
350.000,00
300.000,00
250.000,00
200.000,00
150.000,00
100.000,00
50.000,00
0,00
19591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978
Fuente: Cálculos propios
122
40.000,00
GDP per capita prices 1984 : 1959-1978
30.000,00
20.000,00
10.000,00
0,00
GDP millions prices 1984: 1979-2009
900.000,00
800.000,00
700.000,00
600.000,00
500.000,00
400.000,00
300.000,00
200.000,00
100.000,00
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0,00
Fuente: Cálculos propios
123
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
GDP per capita Bs prices 1984: 1979-2009
35.000,00
30.000,00
25.000,00
20.000,00
15.000,00
10.000,00
5.000,00
0,00
OIL prices Venezuelan Basket 1936-2009
dollars 1990
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Fuente: OPEP, Baptista, Base Cuantitativas y cálculos propios
124
100
OIL prices venezuelan basket 1936-2009
current dollars
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Fuente: OPEP, Baptista, Base Cuantitativas y cálculos propios
Between 1920 and 1958 the product multiplied by 16 times and the income by 6.
For the period 1959-1978 the increase was 2.8 times and 0.447, respectively (that
means the income increases by 45%). In the final phase, from 1979 to 2009, the
product multiplied by 1.75 times and the GDP per capita contracted, being in 2009
approximately 10% lower than the income of 1979. This occurred despite the fact
that between 2000 and 2008 Venezuela had the highest oil prices in its history.
The direction or trend of the income, since the late seventies, is to decline slowly or
remain stagnant. The oil prices produce very irregular positive growth, depending
on the duration and the rate of the rising prices. But as soon as the cost to sustain
the social system (with many new clientelistic relationships or with the
old
repowered, leading with rampant corruption, nepotism, waste of public money,
expansion of bureaucracy and massive outflow capital), is exceeded revenues
from increases in oil prices, the economy takes the path of stagnation until the next
oil boom. This is a cycle monotonously repeated from the first oil boom of 1973
until now. Only in 1989 with the election of Carlos Andres Perez, a second time as
125
President of Venezuela, there was a serious attempt for breaking the vicious circle
in which the Venezuelan economy had entered since the late seventies. The
economic adjustment package was much more than a simple set of measures
agreed with the International Monetary Fund, it was also a methodical attempt to
free the economy from dependence on oil revenues. The experiment ended almost
in its birth, when a protest broke out in the “dormitory city” of Guarenas (just
outside Caracas) against the increase of mass transportation tickets as the result
of the price rising of gasoline. It is worth emphasizing, that surface public
transportation service is a private enterprise and it is in the hands of small
businessmen, much of them from European origins. Those owners of transport,
unconsciously, raised the ticket prices well above those recommended by National
Government. On 27 February, which was the payday for workers, people did not
have money to pay the increment to travel to their work places in the city and
collect their payments, and the result was a violent confrontation between operator
and user, with many busses burned and destroyed. The images were transmitted
live on TV and dynamics of protest swept through Caracas as the results of those
images, primarily in the popular sectors (slums) of Petare, Catia, la Vega etc.
Unlike Guarenas, in Caracas the crowd objective was not just to sack the
supermarkets for groceries or to get on fire transport units, but also to sack
shopping centers, appliance and liquor stores. That was an act of widespread
transgression against the social and political scheme. Bands of professional
robbers infiltrated the population protest and directed or incited them to take
advantage of the situation to seizing (steal) goods that could not otherwise acquire.
Therefore, the revolt had not a previously revolutionary anti-neoliberal nature or
origin, as the left journalist and academics have read and narrated these events.
These stories are part of the myths created retrospectively by the Venezuelan left.
On 27 February there was a mix of legitimate protest initiated by Guarenas workers
and acts of massive shoplifting, whose character was more or less spontaneous.
Also, in that period there were important factors that created a convoluted
atmosphere, as the elimination of administered prices, food shortages, resulting
from hoarding of commodities by the private sector to profit from the expected rise
126
in prices, all these issues caused a definitive rupture of the legitimate bond among
the political system and the low income population, the new economic policy ended
abruptly, without any compensation policy, the protection enjoyed by the poorest
socioeconomic strata. The conciliation pact between the Venezuelan elites58 that
facilitated the establishment of democracy included channeling the social demand
of population throughout union trades and grass root organization controlled by
political parties, all of these structures failed , lost their representation character in
the middle of the popular revolt.
The national government was shocked and paralyzed, the Minister of the
Interior, Alejandro Izaguirre, fainted in the middle of national television broadcast
and the forces of public order, Police and National Guard were overwhelmed by
the events. The restoration of public order remained in the hands of the Ministry of
Defense, headed by General Italo del Valle Alliegro, who lacking experience in
dealing with urban riots made a ruthless use of Armed Forces’ firepower against
the civilian population, causing 300 deaths and many wounded in Caracas.
Moreover, the swing of economic policy that originated that state of affairs did not
have the support of many political leaders of the big political parties, of trade
unions, part of the officer’ corps in the Armed Forces, and personalities of great
national relevance as Dr. Rafael Caldera and Dr. Uslar Prieto, who organized an
informal pressure group, called “the Notables”, opposing the government. The
economic program failed one month after its implementation. Then the country
went into a vortex of political instability that meant two attempts coups in 1992,
thousands of demonstrations and the trial of the President Perez in 1993. The
myopia of the Venezuela power elites opened the door to radical solutions and the
possibility of returning to historical times considered a thing of the past.59 .
.
58
Kornblith, Miriam. La crisis del sistema político venezolano. Nueva Sociedad. 134 (Nov-Dec):142-157,1994.
See the speech of Carlos Andrés Pérez, immediately after the ruling of the Supreme Court about merits for
his trial. This document contains a brief but accurate analysis of the history of Venezuela, made by a
politician
whose
career
began
in
the
forties
of
the
twentieth
http://www.analitica.com/bitblioteca/cap/csj.asp
59
127
The poor performance of the Venezuelan economy has been explained thoroughly
and from different technical points of view
60
but in the end is nothing more but the
reflection of the institutional weakness and lack of moral fiber in Venezuelan
society and in its power elites unable to break the rentier-distributive system. In
part, the inability of Venezuelan power elites to overcome this economic parasite
model based on the pattern oil = income = distribution is due to an improvised
economic and political culture and to a lack identity and cohesion as a dominant
social group, but, equally, to the fact that the elites got abundant benefits, enriching
without major efforts under this scheme. The last decade has been particularly
disastrous for Venezuela’s economy. The revolutionary Government through an
impulsive economic policy highly interventionist, but also erratic and futile, had
made the national economy even more oil-dependent, to the point where oil
exports account for 94% of the total. Likewise, today the population depends more
than ever on government economic handouts. The social missions programs61,
actually a large and expensive patronage system whose intention is to sustain
consumption of the electoral constituency of the President, has weakened the work
ethic and enhanced the parasitic relationship between society and the Landlord
State. The Venezuelan government has adopted a political formula that we could
depict as “Oil Sultanism”62, a radical condition of Autocratic patrimonialism
described by Max Weber, where the ruler, roughly, exercises power in first person,
in a discretional way controlling the access to oil wealth, as well as the coercive
agencies like Armed Forces, the Bolivarian militia, paramilitary groups and in the
case of Venezuela even criminal bands to inculcate fear in the population. The
economic result of this type of regime, in the example of Venezuela, can be
summarized as a huge concentration of wealth in a new oligarchy, that the
independent press and the opposition has baptized as “Bolivarian bourgeoisie” or
“boliburguesía”, a highly dependent on the Landlord State socio- economic elite
thriving on public contracts, imports, access to the control exchange system and
60
VENEZUELA: ANATOMY OF A COLLAPSE Edited by Ricardo Hausmann, Harvard University Francisco
Rodriguez Wesleyan University and The Case of Venezuela. The Illusion of Harmony of Moses and Ramon
Piñango Nain
61
62
Sultanistic Regimes Edited by HE: Chehabi and Juan Linz Johns Hopkins University
128
well-connected or with family relations in the revolutionary bureaucracy apparatus.
After a strong economic growth between 2003 and 2008, a least according to
official statistics, interrupted by the crisis between 2009 and 2010, the country is
forced to import products commodities such as coffee, maize and rice, which
previously were produced in self-sufficient amount and even exported a surplus.
None of the fundamental problems of economics Venezuelan were solved,
rather, they had worsened. Inflation is the highest of world, the introduction of a
new currency, the Bolivar Fuerte, was only a cosmetic operation, which did not
renew the confidence of Venezuelans in its monetary currency nor was useful as
instrument to diminish inflation. Public debt, according to official estimates, is about
of 114,000 million of dollars63. While other nations with natural strategic resources
as oil strengthened or created Sovereign Wealth Funds, taking advantage of the
enormous surpluses in current accounts in the last years of high commodities
prices, Venezuela opted to squander the oil surplus in a grandiose foreign policy
and sumptuous imports.
At this point it is worth to emphasize that official statistics should be used with
caution, especially in the last 3-4 years, as the same have serious disagreements
and the source data used for its construction are unknown. This is the case of the
figures on agricultural production, manufacturing GDP, oil production, consumer’s
price index and those relating to the distribution of national income and inequality
measures. In this sense, the everyday reality contrasts sharply with the official
figures. Shortages of basic products such as sugar, wheat and maize flour have
become a chronic problem and this happened in the middle of a hypothetical
growth of agricultural production. We add the disappearance of entire lines of
products and brands from the shelves of Venezuelan markets, as corn oil,
confectionery etc. Industrial production remains relatively high, if compared with
the pre-revolutionary years, despite the loss of about 40% of the industrial park in
the last 10 years, the departure of foreign manufacturers companies and the
electricity crisis that erupted in 2009 and lasted until 2012. The problem in
63
New from “El Universal”: Central Government debt plus PDVSA debt reach $114 billion. Thursday March 1,
2012. . We have to add the debt with China and Russia, and reach 150 billion dollars
129
providing electricity even forced the government to reduce by 45-50% the
production of national heavy industries (steel and aluminum) located in the south of
the country. Also, it had to implement a rationing scheme in all the states, with the
exception of Caracas, to save energy. To this, we must add thousands of power
blackouts that interrupt daily the production process all over the country.
Paradoxically, the revolutionary government aspires to become an international
energetic power, but cannot supply enough energy to sustain normal activities
economic in its territory.
In short, the twentieth century concludes, as the nineteenth, with a revolution, a
charismatic leader and strongman, an intense economic and institutional crisis and
numerous contradictions between rhetoric and reality.
Conclusions
We can identify four economic phases in Venezuela; the first we called the
stationary economic cycle, spanning from 1830 to 1924. A second phase based on
the initial expansion of the oil industry and ranging from 1925 to 1958 with a very
high economic growth; a third, slow but in a stable economic framework for the
period 1958 -1977; and finally, the last phase of completed stagnation and decline
from 1977 to 2009. For the late colonial period, there was a significant growth from
1783 to 1799, and from there it enters in a phase of stagnation, with some peaks,
that extends to the war of independence and continues with the Republic. The
colonial economy, according to our assessment, reaches its ceiling production by
the end of the eighteenth century. The War of Independence does not produce the
destructions emphasizes by national historiography and has no strictly negative
economic long-lasting effect, other than the institutional mess that will characterize
the nineteenth century. The heroes liberators of Venezuela created nationality but
failed to build a viable State capable of reconciling and representing the various
interests involved in the formation of the nation. Paradoxically, today Venezuela is
experiencing the same situation; the State is basically the representation of a
faction of the nation.
130
In general terms, the series corresponds exactly with the qualitative studies of
Venezuela’s economy, following a random non chronological order, since the
Federal War of 1860 and its sequel of revolts and revolutions of all kinds until 1870
produced a stagnation of growth product, a drop in real income and the collapse of
private investment. Secondly, the presidential term of Cipriano Castro, during
which were combined depressed coffee prices with new revolutions (the
Libertadora revolution), the blockade of the Venezuelan coast by some European
powers
and a huge mess of public finances, resulted in a fall crash of the
economy. And finally, the period 1999-2003, too closes to us to be analyzed; in this
period Venezuelan society enters once again in an historical cycle of social
polarization and economic contraction, smoothed by an extraordinary increase in
oil prices allowing the Bolivarian Revolution to get root and to show good
indicators. Likewise, periods of higher economic growth generally converge with
the pacification of the country and with a minimum functioning of its institutions. We
can use an example to illustrate our argument; the period of Guzman Blanco and
some years later, with the relative pacification of the country, the increase in coffee
prices and a fairly coherent institutional policy favoring foreign investment and an
increased of exports that stimulated an product and income per capita increase.
However, it is unquestionable that growth was not sustained over time. Also, it is
surprising the product growth during the period 1848-1858, consequence of the
strong expansion in public spending, debt and exports. Similarly, can inferred from
the data, the vital importance of the providential discovery of oil to break the
immobility that characterized the Venezuelan economy in the nineteenth century
and thus propel a long cycle of rapid economic growth with various ups and
downs, that lasted from 1925 to 1977, during which the real per capita income
multiplied by 8. View over in the long term, Venezuela’s economy does not present
an atypical case in Latin America; the average income growth in the region
multiplied by 7-9 times. The period 1925-1958 can be considered extraordinary, in
which concentrates the most of GDP per capita growth of the twentieth century and
even the Venezuela’s per capita income exceeded the one from advanced
industrial economies such as Italy and Spain.
131
On the other hand, to understand the lack of growth of Venezuela´s economy
during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries is essential to analyze the
behavior of population growth rates between 1873 and 192664 , which for reasons
not yet well explained by demographers and historians fell from 1.8% in the period
1873 -1881 to 1% between 1881-1891 and 0.7% for the period 1891-1926. What
caused this slow but noticeable decline? Reducing the birth rate is apparently
discarded; then, was that a result of the extension of malaria and of its tightening,
which led to an increase in mortality rate? These are questions unanswered.
However, the available references indicate that malaria and Chagas diseases
spread over about a half of the territory, specifically affecting more than a third of
the population, with serious consequences for reproduction and productivity of the
workforce.
The truth is probably that the slowing population growth had a negative effect
on the ability to generate and sustain growth of the economy in the long term.
Especially in an agricultural economy with productivity rate close to zero and
therefore dependent on a constant supply of workers to avoid the contraction of
agricultural production per capita. Add to this some well- known factors such as
high costs of goods and people transportation, that the construction of railways
wasn´t able to reduce because of the abrupt topography between production
centers and the ports system, the absence of fractional coins that made difficult
domestic trade, especially before reforms of Guzman Blanco, epidemics that kept
the population in a state of permanent enervation, absence of an articulated capital
markets, coffee cycles, high debt and disarray of public finances and some degree
of disinterest of part of the population to the tasks of the work65 and last but not
least, the caudillismo with its sequels of revolutions and uprisings that cost to
Venezuela, around 1,000,000 dead in the XIX century66 . Therefore, oil arrived not
only to boost the national economy, but also broke an apparently inevitable trend to
the long-term stagnation suffered by Venezuelan society. In the nineteenth century,
64
There is much local information about the ravages of malaria, but we didn’t find a work proposing a global
picture and its implications. Note of the author.
65
See the valuable work of Professor Valecillos “The Venezuelan and Work (2010)”.
66
61 Figures from Arraiz, “Los dias de la ira” (1991)
132
Venezuela, like the rest of Latin America, was economically in delay regarding the
United States, who managed to increase real per capita income in 3.88 times
between 1822 and 1913
67
but also showed a notable delay with respect to the
most representative Latin American countries. Mexico, a case of study of strong
economic decline after its independence, was able to expand its real income 1.76
times from 1845 to 1900. Spain, during its stormy nineteenth century had real
income increased by 1.67 times during 1850-1900.68 Venezuela, instead, had a
zero growth. From the exploitation and exportation of hydrocarbons, Venezuela's
economy began to grow rapidly, above the average for Latin America and for midfifty its per capita real income was higher than in European nations like Spain and
Italy, countries than today had two or three times the Venezuela´s income 69. In the
mid-sixties, the real income per capita was the highest in Latin America. That
growth stopped abruptly in 1977, when real income reached the maximum of
32,395.79 in local currency at 1984 prices or 9,648 in 1990 dollars. For that year
the Venezuelan GDP per capita, taking as reference the 1830 income, and
expressed in 1984 prices, had risen 9.2 times. After 32 years, in 2009, the income
per capita was 28,306.60 Bolivares or 8,430.81 at 1990 dollars, or 8 times the
income of 1830 and a 12.62% lower than in 1977. This despite having recently
enjoyed a boom of oil prices from 2004 and 2008, very similar to the mid-seventies
of the twentieth century. This aspect opens an interesting field for potential future
research; apparently the oil revenues began to show diminishing marginal utility
since the late seventies, meaning that increases in oil revenues each time produce
less utility in terms of sustained economic growth in time. A barrel of oil at $ 100 is
insufficient, even to cover the regular expenses of the public administration,
including civil service payroll. Thus, an economy as the Venezuelan, which is
experiencing a decline in the supply of resources due to a marginal decreasing of
oil revenues, a brutal contraction of manufactured production70 , of the agricultural
67
See Haber in “Como se rezagó America Latina
Here we use the series is Professor Maluquer de Motes. Professor Prados de la Escosura, in our view is one
of the major European experts on the topic and he raised doubts about the number of Maluquer . See the
debate between them embodied in two papers, they are very illustrative. Author’s note.
69
See World Bank data using the Atlas method or GNI (Gross National Income)
70
The data can be obtained Conindusria, association of industries of Venezuela.
68
133
production and the energy system71, electric power production deterioration72 and
acute conflict between producers and the new political group, and the increasing
marginal costs to sustain the system (internal and external patronage,
nationalizations and the increased of a non-productive sector of the population)
can only worsening its economic performance73, compromising its economic
growth in the long term and prolonging and intensifying the process decline that
began in 1977 and has had some ups and downs, the last of them the brief surge
in oil prices during 2004 to 2008. We are of the opinion that the tendency of the
Venezuelan economy in the coming years, if there are no surprises and a real
change, will be the identical or even worse of that between 1978 and 2009. All the
factors that led the economy to its present stagnation are not only present, but
have become more serious in the last decade. Thus, Venezuela will continue to
decline with the known peaks caused by the movement of oil prices, which will end,
as usual, voracious consumed by a parasitic society, that many years ago lost its
track to development. Venezuela is a nation frozen in time, living of the myths of its
past, unable to understand the present and not capable to imagine its future but
still with a large potential to growth if Venezuelans decided someday to turn
definitively the page of history.
Finally, we attach the series including the following: the structure of GDP, the
population, GDP current and constant, the real income per capita period 17832009, all expressed in 1984 bolivars and in 1990 dollars. While the objective of this
study is to measure the Venezuela´s economic growth from 1783 to 2009, we
included a set of graphs and tables on performance of the economy from 1830 to
1949 and expressed in current and constant bolivars. We want to underline that the
period 1830-1949 corresponded with the most complex part of the reconstruction
of the national accounts of Venezuela and therefore we have included a good
amount of information. Also, the graphics and overall inflation rates for the 18301949 period, some prices , a TFP exploration using Private Stock of Capital, some
71
For oil production data see and compare information from PDVSA, the International Agency of Energy and
OPEC
72
Unfortunately there are no official or unofficial data, but only press reports of its recurrence
73
70 See Tanteir in “The Collapse of Complex Societies” (1990)
134
tables on the performance of the largest economies Latin American during the
1900-2008 period; for that purpose we used the Angus Maddison database and the
Italian economy with data courteously provided by Professor Paolo Malanima.. Etc.
The detailed sources of statistical annexes, data export, import, spending,
investment, prices, and inflation and so on, could be request by interested
researchers in the casee of Venezuela by email: [email protected].
135
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144
Algunas Medidas, Pesos y Cambios venezolanos
1 Ton---------------------------920 Kg
1 Quintal-----------------------46Kg
1 arroba------------------------11,502 Kg
1 carga de 80Bs---------------58 litros
1 libra---------------------------0,460 Kg
1 fanega ------------------------50 Kg
1 onza---------------------------28,756 gramos
1legua ---------------------------5,572 Mt
1fanegada-----------------------0,6987 Hectáreas
1 Bolívar----------------------- 1 Franco
1 Venezolano------------------- 5 Francos
5,18262 Bolívares---------------1 Dólar
5 Bolívares-----------------------1 Peso
25,25 Bolívares------------------1 Libra Esterlina
1,25 Bolívares------------------- 1 Marco
1 Bolívar---------------------------1 Peseta
80 Bolívares---------------------- 1 onza colombiana
145
Anexo 1 Ejercicio de contabilidad de Crecimiento con el método de inventarios
perpetuos con una tasa de depreciación del 3%. Para el periodo 1830-1936 L=0.4 y
para 1936-1949 L=0.5 usando el acervo de capital privado no residencial. Exercise of
growth accounting with a rate of depreciation of 3%. Labor share in production is
assumed to be 0.4 for 1830-1936 and 0.5 for 1936-1949. Using private stock of no
residential capital.
Historic Period
Averages growth rates
Years
Capital Labor GDP
Conservative Oligarchy
1830-48
3,96
2,17 1,29
Liberal Oligarchy
1849-59
1,56
1,35 2,70
Federal War and Transition 1860-70
-1,80
1,17 0,92
Yellow liberalism
1871-98
3,30
1,20 2,10
Castrism
1899-1908 -0,85
0,70 -1,44
Gomecism
1909-1936
2,77
1,03 4,12
Post Gomecism
1936-1949 12,43
2,93 9,16
Contribution
Capital
2,38
0,94
-1,08
1,98
-0,51
1,66
6,21
to growth
Labor TFP
0,87 -1,96
0,54 1,23
0,47 1,53
0,48 -0,36
0,28 -1,21
0,41 2,05
1,46 1,49
Stock of Private
Employment
GDP
no residential Capital
mill.1984
Years
1830
3.060,00
285.507
3.045,58
1831
3.209,42
293.285
3.084,86
1832
3.375,63
301.063
3.577,58
1833
3.550,92
308.841
3.720,36
1834
3.821,12
316.619
3.855,30
1835
4.017,44
324.396
3.877,09
1836
4.184,66
332.174
3.696,23
1837
4.298,06
339.952
3.562,90
1838
4.454,42
347.730
3.280,30
1839
4.619,15
355.507
3.119,99
1840
4.794,58
363.285
3.071,19
1841
4.980,44
371.063
3.470,32
1842
5.218,22
378.841
3.969,65
1843
5.388,83
386.618
3.741,38
1844
5.596,25
394.396
3.828,08
1845
5.805,46
402.176
3.950,41
1846
5.989,77
408.230
4.059,16
1847
6.131,12
414.285
3.949,69
1848
6.144,69
420.339
4.001,05
1849
6.189,07
426.393
3.733,06
1850
6.322,33
432.448
4.504,26
1851
6.482,07
438.502
4.395,27
1852
6.735,10
444.556
4.627,08
1853
6.944,43
450.610
5.006,44
146
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863
1864
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
7.089,29
7.131,89
7.217,27
7.281,26
7.319,31
7.281,46
7.168,56
7.037,10
6.883,09
6.723,16
6.654,02
6.567,45
6.454,86
6.318,79
6.210,77
6.091,95
5.963,22
5.872,52
5.798,10
5.750,51
5.694,85
5.859,86
6.437,35
6.846,93
7.096,20
7.393,28
7.655,88
8.071,49
8.801,32
9.348,63
9.721,54
10.087,38
10.577,03
11.192,67
11.800,41
12.439,60
12.890,39
13.363,62
13.570,32
13.910,20
14.126,07
14.302,57
14.517,90
456.665
462.719
468.773
474.827
480.882
486.936
492.990
499.044
505.099
511.153
517.207
523.262
529.316
535.370
541.424
547.479
553.533
559.587
565.641
571.696
582.946
594.196
605.446
616.696
627.946
639.196
650.446
661.696
668.838
675.980
683.122
690.265
697.407
704.549
711.692
718.834
725.976
733.119
738.702
744.286
749.870
755.444
761.038
5.179,66
5.435,25
4.229,46
4.972,09
4.949,57
5.019,30
5.414,85
5.891,17
5.269,68
4.914,67
4.829,58
5.190,45
5.183,59
4.742,18
4.861,54
5.417,08
5.403,19
5.376,04
5.487,42
6.021,38
6.710,55
6.081,44
6.431,35
6.641,05
7.221,32
7.214,39
7.801,93
7.884,50
7.843,12
8.301,15
8.868,95
8.290,38
8.961,89
9.327,36
9.441,42
9.921,49
10.782,25
10.227,98
9.271,96
9.386,34
9.314,25
10.189,85
8.981,95
147
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
14.470,89
14.633,82
14.633,15
14.618,90
14.635,24
14.381,92
14.316,31
14.164,33
13.977,08
13.807,76
13.638,42
13.427,12
13.233,88
13.103,17
13.111,18
12.990,79
12.817,81
12.782,70
12.858,23
13.190,94
13.256,08
13.435,91
13.886,48
14.297,90
14.352,05
14.714,56
15.355,30
16.375,55
17.716,30
19.407,89
20.739,51
22.570,72
24.160,04
25.183,41
25.492,42
25.740,17
25.910,67
26.920,63
27.693,89
30.355,71
33.460,22
38.028,69
44.107,49
766.621
772.205
777.789
783.372
788.956
794.539
800.123
805.707
811.290
816.874
822.434
828.041
833.625
839.208
844.792
850.375
855.959
861.543
867.126
872.710
878.293
883.877
889.461
895.044
900.628
906.211
911.795
917.379
922.962
928.663
946.820
964.977
983.134
1.001.292
1.019.449
1.037.606
1.055.763
1.073.920
1.092.077
1.110.235
1.142.338
1.174.442
1.206.546
9.297,39
9.174,51
7.784,36
8.020,10
7.773,39
7.270,47
7.810,56
7.988,47
8.158,24
8.080,96
7.910,76
7.787,92
7.859,46
7.817,93
7.506,34
8.101,73
8.351,40
9.653,73
9.733,24
9.136,29
9.539,24
9.973,82
9.715,33
9.475,36
9.221,78
10.042,93
10.643,50
11.056,20
11.710,72
12.504,16
12.937,76
15.345,48
16.045,37
16.234,62
16.428,39
15.107,90
17.114,27
18.142,45
21.884,55
24.060,86
24.664,05
27.982,38
30.326,24
148
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
51.622,10
56.201,64
61.451,11
68.980,02
77.867,83
91.117,69
103.016,81
114.832,89
129.834,26
142.192,18
1.238.650
1.270.754
1.316.329
1.361.903
1.407.477
1.453.052
1.498.626
1.544.200
1.589.775
1.635.349
32.787,17
32.677,45
29.254,19
33.399,20
37.304,82
46.862,78
55.378,49
55.650,38
68.080,14
70.945,03
Private Capital per Person Employed 1830-1949
Bolivares 1984
100.000,00
90.000,00
80.000,00
70.000,00
60.000,00
50.000,00
40.000,00
30.000,00
20.000,00
10.000,00
1830
1833
1836
1839
1842
1845
1848
1851
1854
1857
1860
1863
1866
1869
1872
1875
1878
1881
1884
1887
1890
1893
1896
1899
1902
1905
1908
1911
1914
1917
1920
1923
1926
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
0,00
149
1830
1834
1838
1842
1846
1850
1854
1858
1862
1866
1870
1874
1878
1882
1886
1890
1894
1898
1902
1906
1910
1914
1918
1922
1926
1930
1934
1938
1942
1946
1830
1833
1836
1839
1842
1845
1848
1851
1854
1857
1860
1863
1866
1869
1872
1875
1878
1881
1884
1887
1890
1893
1896
1899
1902
1905
1908
1911
1914
1917
1920
1923
1926
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
Private Capital Ouput Ratio 1830-1949
2,50
2,00
1,50
1,00
0,50
0,00
Employment 1830-1949
1.800.000
1.600.000
1.400.000
1.200.000
1.000.000
800.000
600.000
400.000
200.000
0
150
Anexo 2 PIB per capita de Italia, Regiones del Norte, Sur y Venezuela en dólares
1990. GDP of Italy, North and South and Venezuela in 1990 International dollars.
1861
1884
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2009
GDP in International dollars 1990
Italy
Northern South Venezuela
1.486
1.490
1.482
1.164
1.787
1.809
1.751
1.275
2.101
2.189
1.950
1.009
2.538
2.707
2.242
914
2.738
3.003
2.247
1.041
3.104
3.551
2.295
1.595
3.742
4.427
2.543
2.598
3.739
4.520
2.415
4.612
6.287
7.536
4.140
6.601
10.049
11.517
7.355
8.334
13.650
15.859
9.606
8.870
16.940
19.659
11.870
7.218
19.741
23.409
13.215
7.206
19.065
22.117
12.905
8.430
Sources: For Italy Paolo Malanima.
GDP per Capita 1=1861
ITALY
North Italy
South Italy
VENEZUELA
18,00
16,00
14,00
12,00
10,00
8,00
6,00
4,00
2,00
0,00
1861 1884 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009
151
Anexo 2: PIB y PIB per cápita 1783-2009. GDP and GDP per capita 1783-2009 in
current, 1984 Bolivares and International dollars 1990 and population series.
Pob
1783
1784
1785
1786
1787
1788
1789
1790
1791
1792
1793
1794
1795
1796
1797
1798
1799
1800
1801
1802
1803
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
1810
1811
1812
1813
1814
1815
1816
1817
586.736
599.281
611.826
624.371
636.915
649.460
662.005
674.550
687.095
699.640
712.185
724.730
737.275
749.820
762.365
774.910
787.455
800.000
805.441
810.882
816.323
821.764
827.205
832.646
838.087
843.528
848.969
854.410
847.050
839.691
832.332
824.973
817.614
810.255
802.895
GDP current
GDP 1984
GDP per cápita BS
88,10
92,42
95,46
104,55
100,59
102,93
101,00
100,00
110,92
127,79
120,09
129,18
111,84
117,62
123,40
106,07
110,56
115,05
98,51
128,04
124,37
116,36
107,21
116,36
121,54
98,27
125,52
115,63
91,91
89,63
87,20
80,90
101,79
101,57
103,37
millions Bs
2.096,31
1.944,53
1.933,03
2.198,39
2.749,66
2.813,62
2.760,87
2.733,53
3.032,03
2.495,13
3.282,70
2.716,29
3.057,18
3.215,18
3.294,12
3.412,73
3.357,99
2.246,38
2.978,76
2.604,18
2.741,69
2.516,41
2.930,62
3.180,74
2.658,72
2.166,32
2.714,50
2.516,55
2.512,39
2.172,04
2.113,16
1.960,49
2.432,22
2.313,71
2.871,60
1984
3.572,83
3.244,77
3.159,44
3.520,97
4.317,15
4.332,25
4.170,46
4.052,38
4.412,83
3.566,30
4.609,33
3.748,00
4.146,60
4.287,94
4.320,92
4.404,04
4.264,36
2.807,97
3.698,30
3.211,54
3.358,58
3.062,20
3.542,80
3.820,04
3.172,37
2.568,17
3.197,41
2.945,36
2.966,05
2.586,72
2.538,84
2.376,42
2.974,78
2.855,53
3.576,55
GDP
per cápita $
1990
1064,07
966,36
940,95
1048,62
1285,74
1290,24
1242,05
1206,88
1314,23
1062,12
1372,76
1116,23
1234,94
1277,04
1286,86
1311,62
1270,02
836,27
1101,43
956,46
1000,26
911,99
1055,12
1137,69
944,8
764,86
952,26
877,19
883,35
770,38
756,12
707,75
885,95
850,44
1065,17
152
1818
1819
1820
1821
1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
1829
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
795.536
788.177
780.818
773.459
766.100
778.484
790.868
803.252
815.637
828.021
840.405
852.789
865.174
888.743
912.312
935.881
959.450
983.018
1.006.588
1.030.157
1.053.726
1.077.295
1.100.864
1.124.433
1.148.002
1.171.571
1.195.140
1.218.709
1.237.062
1.255.408
1.273.754
1.292.101
1.310.447
1.328.793
1.347.139
1.365.486
1.383.832
1.402.178
1.420.524
1.438.871
1.457.217
1.475.564
1.493.910
104,14
101,09
98,78
101,22
103,65
122,60
119,97
110,56
143,96
108,15
105,25
105,40
114,08
111,65
125,81
133,02
139,67
144,06
138,65
138,95
126,14
121,15
119,33
134,90
144,00
141,17
146,66
142,37
147,66
146,92
160,50
158,38
162,22
166,91
173,97
186,44
201,40
230,28
174,58
183,49
186,07
188,01
207,80
2.758,43
2.415,50
2.311,80
2.290,46
1.935,32
2.301,72
2.113,03
1.907,95
2.588,94
2.161,05
2.365,99
2.308,61
3.045,58
3.084,86
3.577,58
3.720,36
3.855,30
3.877,09
3.696,23
3.562,90
3.280,30
3.119,99
3.071,19
3.470,32
3.969,65
3.741,38
3.828,08
3.950,41
4.059,16
3.949,69
4.001,05
3.733,06
4.504,26
4.395,27
4.627,08
5.006,44
5.179,66
5.435,25
4.229,46
4.972,09
4.949,57
5.019,30
5.414,85
3.467,39
3.064,66
2.960,74
2.961,33
2.526,20
2.956,67
2.671,78
2.375,28
3.174,14
2.609,90
2.815,30
2.707,13
3520,2
3471,04
3921,45
3975,26
4018,25
3944,07
3667,08
3458,6
3113,05
2896,14
2789,81
3086,29
3457,88
3193,48
3203,04
3241,48
3281,29
3146,15
3141,16
2889,14
3437,2
3307,72
3434,75
3666,42
3742,98
3876,29
2977,39
3455,55
3396,6
3401,62
3624,62
1032,66
912,72
881,77
881,95
752,35
880,56
795,71
707,41
945,32
777,28
838,45
806,24
1.043,18
1.033,12
1.164,72
1.184,45
1.197,15
1.174,27
1.089,74
1.028,07
923,68
867,73
826,19
914,42
1.031,54
953,29
958,70
960,69
981,61
937,74
937,54
860,78
1.018,01
981,33
1.021,68
1.094,05
1.109,28
1.153,30
882,89
1.035,09
1.010,19
1.008,04
1.073,29
153
1861
1862
1863
1864
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1.512.256
1.530.602
1.548.949
1.567.295
1.585.641
1.603.987
1.622.334
1.640.680
1.659.026
1.677.372
1.695.719
1.714.064
1.732.411
1.766.502
1.800.593
1.834.684
1.868.775
1.902.866
1.936.957
1.971.048
2.005.139
2.026.782
2.048.425
2.070.068
2.091.712
2.113.355
2.134.998
2.156.642
2.178.285
2.199.928
2.221.572
2.238.492
2.255.413
2.272.334
2.289.255
2.306.175
2.323.095
2.340.015
2.356.935
2.373.855
2.390.775
2.407.695
2.424.615
228,22
206,02
190,00
191,03
206,00
209,36
197,53
212,38
246,65
258,42
270,05
274,80
302,52
334,35
313,78
342,66
368,30
382,06
389,50
406,94
397,50
385,77
393,51
434,99
425,47
443,43
419,03
428,29
435,24
450,36
432,26
407,71
458,04
453,20
505,61
465,06
504,62
517,19
436,62
467,38
468,01
458,03
511,05
5.891,17
5.269,68
4.914,67
4.829,58
5.190,45
5.183,59
4.742,18
4.861,54
5.417,08
5.403,19
5.376,04
5.487,42
6.021,38
6.710,55
6.081,44
6.431,35
6.641,05
7.221,32
7.214,39
7.801,93
7.884,50
7.843,12
8.301,15
8.868,95
8.290,38
8.961,89
9.327,36
9.441,42
9.921,49
10.782,25
10.227,98
9.271,96
9.386,34
9.314,25
10.189,85
8.981,95
9.297,39
9.174,51
7.784,36
8.020,10
7.773,39
7.270,47
7.810,56
3895,62
3442,88
3172,91
3081,48
3273,41
3231,7
2923,06
2963,13
3265,22
3221,23
3170,37
3201,41
3475,73
3798,78
3377,47
3505,43
3553,69
3794,97
3724,6
3958,27
3932,15
3869,74
4052,46
4284,38
3963,45
4240,6
4368,79
4377,84
4554,73
4901,19
4603,94
4142,06
4161,7
4098,98
4451,17
3894,74
4002,16
3920,71
3302,75
3378,52
3251,41
3019,68
3221,36
1.164,46
1.025,92
946,48
917,81
978,28
959,74
874,69
879,39
967,91
962,89
947,94
954,29
1.029,62
1.126,62
1.008,48
1.042,23
1.061,86
1.130,53
1.112,22
1.183,82
1.168,87
1.154,95
1.212,78
1.275,08
1.177,13
1.260,95
1.304,97
1.306,52
1.357,40
1.453,95
1.366,39
1.237,34
1.244,39
1.222,07
1.327,30
1.156,30
1.190,89
1.170,66
981,19
1.008,64
963,37
900,74
961,57
154
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
2.441.535
2.458.455
2.475.375
2.492.225
2.509.215
2.526.135
2.543.055
2.559.975
2.576.895
2.593.815
2.610.735
2.627.655
2.644.575
2.661.495
2.678.415
2.695.335
2.712.255
2.729.175
2.746.095
2.763.015
2.779.935
2.796.855
2.814.131
2.869.152
2.924.174
2.979.195
3.034.217
3.089.239
3.144.260
3.199.282
3.254.303
3.309.325
3.364.347
3.461.631
3.558.916
3.656.201
3.753.486
3.850.771
3.988.875
4.126.979
4.265.083
4.403.187
4.541.291
541,81
577,37
600,52
605,42
636,87
665,47
699,31
700,08
798,03
852,77
994,63
1.057,49
1.059,80
1.150,37
1.275,09
1.458,31
1.531,62
1.178,95
1.181,38
1.235,72
1.380,73
1.524,65
1.696,90
1.689,68
1.997,87
1.987,41
1.889,83
1.833,54
1.578,18
1.620,00
1.611,73
1.823,49
2.135,05
2.397,61
2.620,18
3.015,71
3.229,73
3.087,35
2.881,71
3.540,21
4.198,71
5.463,16
7.041,86
7.988,47
8.158,24
8.080,96
7.910,76
7.787,92
7.859,46
7.817,93
7.506,34
8.101,73
8.351,40
9.653,73
9.733,24
9.136,29
9.539,24
9.973,82
9.715,33
9.475,36
9.221,78
10.042,93
10.643,50
11.056,20
11.710,72
12.504,16
12.937,76
15.345,48
16.045,37
16.234,62
16.428,39
15.107,90
17.114,27
18.142,45
21.884,55
24.060,86
24.664,05
27.982,38
30.326,24
32.787,17
32.677,45
29.254,19
33.399,20
37.304,82
46.862,78
55.378,49
3271,91
3318,45
3264,54
3174,18
3103,73
3111,26
3074,23
2932,2
3143,99
3219,74
3697,71
3704,16
3454,73
3584,17
3723,78
3604,5
3493,54
3378,97
3657,17
3852,14
3977,14
4187,11
4443,35
4509,26
5247,8
5385,81
5350,52
5317,94
4804,92
5349,41
5574,91
6613
7151,72
7124,98
7862,61
8294,47
8735,13
8485,95
7333,94
8092,89
8746,56
10642,92
12194,44
976,73
985,11
971,95
943,03
922,28
924,98
914,19
872,04
935,04
960,19
1.102,36
1.103,20
1.030,72
1.067,75
1.110,22
1.073,51
1.041,12
1.007,42
1.088,57
1.145,58
1.184,82
1.248,01
1.322,35
1.343,32
1.564,16
1.603,60
1.595,39
1.585,27
1.432,43
1.590,34
1.664,18
1.967,91
2.132,43
2.122,01
2.335,75
2.466,57
2.598,01
2.530,77
2.181,27
2.415,04
2.607,09
3.165,12
3.629,75
155
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
4.679.395
4.817.499
4.955.603
5.093.708
5.320.871
5.548.034
5.775.197
6.002.360
6.229.524
6.499.401
6.769.278
7.039.155
7.309.032
7.578.910
7.881.842
8.184.774
8.487.706
8.790.638
9.093.571
9.419.075
9.744.579
10.070.083
10.395.587
10.721.092
11.123.741
11.526.390
11.929.039
12.331.688
12.734.339
13.205.715
13.677.091
14.148.467
14.619.843
15.091.221
15.536.482
15.981.743
16.427.004
16.872.365
17.317.525
17.800.965
18.284.405
18.767.845
19.251.285
8.358,32
10.996,54
11.446,00
11.826,00
13.007,00
13.981,00
14.806,00
16.377,00
17.893,00
20.400,00
23.847,00
24.585,00
24.904,00
25.671,00
27.024,00
29.525,00
32.186,00
35.637,00
37.925,00
39.516,00
41.625,00
45.155,00
46.283,00
52.025,00
57.141,00
61.502,00
73.253,00
112.234,00
118.098,00
135.104,00
155.706,00
169.060,00
207.737,00
254.201,00
285.208,00
291.268,00
290.492,00
420.072,00
464.741,00
489.172,00
696.421,00
873.283,00
1.510.361,00
55.650,38
68.080,14
70.945,03
78.884,97
88.089,36
94.504,53
100.349,47
110.012,52
119.780,95
132.431,55
147.809,38
149.774,22
161.557,07
167.990,84
176.494,82
192.455,28
205.638,93
225.659,24
238.898,68
244.483,29
254.332,29
267.559,33
278.716,77
300.024,34
309.238,27
319.311,37
339.285,73
359.858,56
381.693,49
415.171,73
443.080,15
452.554,79
458.598,65
449.479,53
448.122,62
451.180,11
425.837,37
420.072,00
420.884,00
448.285,00
464.341,00
491.372,00
449.262,00
11892,64
14131,84
14316,12
15.486,75
16.555,44
17.033,88
17.375,94
18.328,21
19.227,95
20.375,96
21.835,32
21.277,30
22.103,76
22.165,57
22.392,59
23.513,82
24.227,86
25.670,41
26.271,16
25.956,19
26.099,87
26.569,72
26.811,07
27.984,49
27.799,84
27.702,63
28.442,00
29.181,61
29.973,56
31.438,79
32.395,79
31.986,14
31.368,23
29.784,17
28.843,25
28.230,97
25.923,01
24.897,04
24.303,93
25.183,19
25.395,47
26.181,59
23.336,73
3.544,04
4.208,38
4.258,31
4.612,28
4.930,56
5.073,05
5.174,92
5.458,53
5.726,49
6.068,39
6.503,02
6.336,83
6.582,97
6.601,37
6.668,99
7.002,91
7.215,57
7.645,19
7.824,11
7.730,30
7.773,09
7.913,03
7.984,90
8.334,37
8.279,38
8.250,43
8.470,63
8.690,90
8.926,76
9.363,14
9.648,15
9.526,15
9.342,12
8.870,36
8.590,13
8.407,78
7.720,42
7.414,87
7.238,23
7.500,09
7.563,31
7.797,43
6.950,17
156
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
19.734.723
20.196.727
20.659.047
21.121.216
21.582.756
22.043.179
22.501.988
22.958.680
23.412.742
23.867.393
24.310.896
24.765.581
25.219.910
25.673.550
26.127.351
26.577.423
27.030.656
27.483.208
27.934.783
28.384.132
2.279.261,00
3.037.492,00
4.131.483,00
5.453.903,00
8.675.172,00
13.685.686,00
29.437.682,00
41.943.151,00
50.012.967,00
59.344.600,00
79.655.692,00
88.945.596,00
107.840.166,00
134.227.833,00
212.683.082,00
304.086.815,00
393.926.240,00
486.376.026,00
667.997.431,00
700.207.518,00
478.320,00
524.860,00
556.669,00
558.202,00
545.087,00
566.627,00
565.506,00
601.534,00
603.302,84
567.282,90
588.198,30
608.163,14
554.306,36
511.318,24
604.820,99
667.225,90
733.095,44
792.856,68
830.768,77
803.458,38
24.237,48
25.987,38
26.945,53
26.428,50
25.255,67
25.705,32
25.131,38
26.200,72
25.768,14
23.768,11
24.194,84
24.556,79
21.978,92
19.916,15
23.148,96
25.104,99
27.120,89
28.848,77
29.739,58
28.306,60
7.218,43
7.739,59
8.024,95
7.870,97
7.521,67
7.655,59
7.484,66
7.803,13
7.674,30
7.078,65
7.205,74
7.313,53
6.545,79
5.931,45
6.894,25
7.476,80
8.077,17
8.591,77
8.857,08
8.430,31
Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología
GDP per Capita dollars 1990
1783-2009
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
1783
1789
1795
1801
1807
1813
1819
1825
1831
1837
1843
1849
1855
1861
1867
1873
1879
1885
1891
1897
1903
1909
1915
1921
1927
1933
1939
1945
1951
1957
1963
1969
1975
1981
1987
1993
1999
2005
0
Serie1
157
Anexo 3: Composición PIB 1830-1949 en porcentajes. Composition of GDP in percent.
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863
1864
1865
1866
1867
Consumption Goverment spenditures
%
Includes pub. Invest %
89,57
4,47
88,87
5,10
89,05
4,48
87,61
4,66
86,70
4,15
84,29
4,16
85,36
5,89
83,69
5,28
81,33
5,74
83,60
7,98
88,94
6,03
79,97
5,72
74,42
10,05
79,08
6,66
78,01
10,20
76,29
8,25
74,20
12,40
77,29
8,36
77,51
8,82
80,45
10,77
79,89
10,77
79,22
11,21
78,38
8,18
75,79
12,65
80,16
11,47
78,29
13,87
77,45
14,36
86,51
12,33
82,27
10,52
85,87
5,67
80,92
14,07
76,45
14,74
80,48
11,84
87,35
5,93
87,92
12,43
83,20
12,30
84,99
9,87
93,58
7,39
Net
Export %
0,43
-1,79
-0,87
0,29
-0,62
3,53
0,95
4,33
4,24
-1,15
-5,20
4,81
5,78
5,52
2,15
5,91
4,57
6,22
8,73
2,65
2,26
1,63
3,77
3,35
1,55
3,14
1,12
-4,48
2,03
4,84
3,07
7,39
6,59
5,77
-3,10
2,32
3,51
-2,19
Private
Invest. %
5,53
7,82
7,34
7,43
9,77
8,02
7,80
6,71
8,70
9,56
10,22
9,50
9,75
8,74
9,64
9,55
8,83
8,13
4,94
6,13
7,08
7,95
9,68
8,22
6,82
4,70
7,08
5,64
5,18
3,62
1,95
1,42
1,08
0,95
2,74
2,18
1,63
1,21
Total
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
158
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
91,29
82,10
81,90
82,82
83,87
86,99
80,69
85,68
81,74
82,25
83,71
86,08
82,30
81,25
77,92
80,16
80,61
80,12
80,76
77,23
77,56
75,53
69,65
73,38
76,43
73,08
75,27
71,02
77,34
80,73
82,47
83,37
81,48
84,66
89,79
83,65
82,60
82,14
81,84
84,83
84,61
84,99
85,39
9,37
8,77
4,93
8,12
5,61
5,64
7,52
7,09
7,12
5,83
5,89
6,03
5,55
7,55
6,49
9,15
7,93
7,28
6,46
10,08
8,74
10,48
10,91
10,35
8,19
11,34
9,68
13,05
10,21
9,02
6,89
5,56
8,13
6,91
5,14
7,51
9,48
8,72
10,18
8,16
7,48
7,86
8,81
-2,34
7,88
12,17
7,42
8,67
5,28
10,05
1,70
-0,58
2,84
4,11
0,82
5,95
3,02
3,20
0,92
4,10
4,67
3,93
2,68
3,71
3,98
11,80
7,86
8,83
7,62
8,24
10,04
5,27
6,06
4,13
5,44
5,09
2,58
2,52
4,16
4,44
6,22
4,89
3,92
5,36
4,47
2,39
1,68
1,25
1,00
1,64
1,85
2,10
1,74
5,52
11,71
9,08
6,30
7,07
6,21
8,18
12,39
9,77
7,36
7,93
8,84
10,00
9,99
10,01
7,64
8,41
6,55
7,96
6,80
5,89
7,17
4,18
6,51
5,63
5,30
5,85
2,55
4,68
3,47
2,91
3,09
3,10
2,54
2,67
3,41
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
159
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
89,45
82,91
84,14
87,39
86,56
87,61
89,08
82,05
81,56
89,54
82,91
83,84
81,39
76,47
72,35
72,99
67,12
58,00
55,42
56,52
57,72
63,46
65,47
63,35
59,52
57,85
56,36
55,05
53,91
52,95
52,16
51,55
51,12
50,86
50,78
50,87
51,14
51,58
52,20
9,15
7,82
7,61
4,51
5,48
5,48
4,60
4,56
4,67
6,70
6,86
6,10
8,27
8,36
10,70
10,54
9,22
12,25
13,27
13,81
9,07
10,26
9,50
11,10
12,79
13,35
13,05
13,78
12,77
11,43
10,82
10,51
9,49
9,76
10,63
13,52
15,52
14,95
17,08
-3,95
5,91
5,66
4,49
3,24
-0,95
1,48
7,60
4,98
-4,98
4,99
2,70
0,16
1,77
1,31
-1,31
8,87
13,77
17,18
18,90
26,73
19,58
19,52
15,69
20,47
14,29
14,31
11,26
9,52
8,67
18,27
14,23
11,33
10,00
5,33
9,19
6,56
6,37
7,81
5,34
3,37
2,60
3,62
4,72
7,86
4,83
5,79
8,79
8,74
5,24
7,36
10,17
13,39
15,64
17,78
14,79
15,99
14,13
10,77
6,48
6,70
5,51
9,85
7,22
14,52
16,28
19,91
23,81
26,96
18,75
23,71
28,06
29,37
33,26
26,42
26,79
27,10
22,91
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología.
160
Anexo 4: PIB per cápita 1957-2001. Índice encadenado de Fischer usado por Prof.
Francisco Rodríguez y el Índice Laspeyres usados en la serie propuesta. GDP and GDP
per capita in Bolivares 1984 from 1957-2001 using a Chained Index done by Professor
Rodriguez and using an Index of Laspeyres proposed in series.
Pob
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
6.769.278
7.039.155
7.309.032
7.578.910
7.881.842
8.184.774
8.487.706
8.790.638
9.093.571
9.419.075
9.744.579
10.070.083
10.395.587
10.721.092
11.123.741
11.526.390
11.929.039
12.331.688
12.734.339
13.205.715
13.677.091
14.148.467
14.619.843
15.091.221
15.536.482
15.981.743
16.427.004
16.872.365
17.317.525
17.800.965
18.284.405
18.767.845
19.251.285
19.734.723
20.196.727
GDP per
GDP GDC
cápita
mill.1984 Boliv. 1984
147.809,38 21.835,32
149.774,22 21.277,30
161.557,07 22.103,76
167.990,84 22.165,57
176.494,82 22.392,59
192.455,28 23.513,82
205.638,93 24.227,86
225.659,24 25.670,41
238.898,68 26.271,16
244.483,29 25.956,19
254.332,29 26.099,87
267.559,33 26.569,72
278.716,77 26.811,07
300.024,34 27.984,49
309.238,27 27.799,84
319.311,37 27.702,63
339.285,73 28.442,00
359.858,56 29.181,61
381.693,49 29.973,56
415.171,73 31.438,79
443.080,15 32.395,79
452.554,79 31.986,14
458.598,65 31.368,23
449.479,53 29.784,17
448.122,62 28.843,25
451.180,11 28.230,97
425.837,37 25.923,01
420.072,00 24.897,04
420.884,00 24.303,93
448.285,00 25.183,19
464.341,00 25.395,47
491.372,00 26.181,59
449.262,00 23.336,73
478.320,00 24.237,48
524.860,00 25.987,38
GDP
Rodríguez
mill.1984
147.539,88
149.132,11
159.090,15
172.238,74
179.487,23
193.579,64
203.248,71
223.382,52
235.858,98
241.121,57
253.400,84
266.586,04
279.823,29
302.811,13
314.263,82
328.787,09
353.600,74
366.199,14
370.202,96
402.999,97
432.715,04
447.975,58
459.205,94
442.109,75
444.966,09
440.465,38
425.781,87
420.072,00
420.963,61
447.538,80
464.279,61
490.763,13
443.195,97
473.001,12
517.947,21
GDP per
cápita
Boliv. 1984
21.795,51
21.186,08
21.766,24
22.726,06
22.772,24
23.651,19
23.946,25
25.411,41
25.936,89
25.599,28
26.004,29
26.473,07
26.917,51
28.244,43
28.251,63
28.524,72
29.642,01
29.695,78
29.071,24
30.517,09
31.637,94
31.662,48
31.409,77
29.295,82
28.640,08
27.560,53
25.919,63
24.897,04
24.308,53
25.141,27
25.392,11
26.149,15
23.021,63
23.967,96
25.645,11
161
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
20.659.047
21.121.216
21.582.756
22.043.179
22.501.988
22.958.680
23.412.742
23.867.393
24.310.896
24.765.581
556.669,00
558.202,00
545.087,00
566.627,00
565.506,00
601.534,00
603.302,84
567.282,90
588.198,30
608.163,14
26.945,53
26.428,50
25.255,67
25.705,32
25.131,38
26.200,72
25.768,14
23.768,11
24.194,84
24.556,79
549.881,40
550.207,69
535.200,50
550.144,55
541.962,27
581.287,61
583.871,98
550.443,98
569.026,83
587.938,87
26.616,98
26.050,00
24.797,60
24.957,59
24.085,08
25.318,86
24.938,21
23.062,59
23.406,25
23.740,16
Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología y Francisco Rodríguez
Nuevo Índice Encadenado.
GDP per capita Bolivares 1984
1957-2001
35.000,00
30.000,00
25.000,00
20.000,00
15.000,00
10.000,00
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
5.000,00
GDC
Francisco Rodriguez
Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología y Francisco Rodríguez
Nuevo Índice Encadenado.
162
Anexo 5: Índice del PIB y Deflactor base 1984 desde 1783-2009. GDP index 1783=100
and Deflator 1984=100.
1783
1784
1785
1786
1787
1788
1789
1790
1791
1792
1793
1794
1795
1796
1797
1798
1799
1800
1801
1802
1803
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
1810
1811
1812
1813
1814
1815
1816
1817
1818
1819
1820
Index
GDP dollars 1990
100,00
90,82
88,43
98,55
120,83
121,26
116,73
113,42
123,51
99,82
129,01
104,90
116,06
120,01
120,94
123,26
119,35
78,59
103,51
89,89
94,00
85,71
99,16
106,92
88,79
71,88
89,49
82,44
83,02
72,40
71,06
66,51
83,26
79,92
100,10
97,05
85,78
82,87
Deflator
1984
4,20
4,75
4,94
4,76
3,66
3,66
3,66
3,66
3,66
5,12
3,66
4,76
3,66
3,66
3,75
3,11
3,29
5,12
3,31
4,92
4,54
4,62
3,66
3,66
4,57
4,54
4,62
4,59
3,66
4,13
4,13
4,13
4,19
4,39
3,60
3,78
4,19
4,27
163
1821
1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
1829
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863
82,88
70,70
82,75
74,78
66,48
88,84
73,05
78,80
75,77
98,04
97,09
109,46
111,31
112,51
110,36
102,41
96,62
86,81
81,55
77,64
85,94
96,94
89,59
90,10
90,28
92,25
88,13
88,11
80,90
95,67
92,22
96,02
102,82
104,25
108,39
82,97
97,28
94,94
94,73
100,87
109,43
96,41
88,95
4,42
5,36
5,33
5,68
5,79
5,56
5,00
4,45
4,57
3,75
3,62
3,52
3,58
3,62
3,72
3,76
3,90
3,85
3,88
3,89
3,89
3,63
3,77
3,83
3,60
3,64
3,72
4,01
4,24
3,60
3,80
3,76
3,72
3,89
4,24
4,13
3,69
3,76
3,75
3,84
3,87
3,91
3,87
164
1864
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
86,25
91,94
90,20
82,20
82,64
90,96
90,49
89,09
89,68
96,76
105,88
94,78
97,95
99,79
106,25
104,52
111,25
109,85
108,54
113,98
119,83
110,62
118,50
122,64
122,79
127,57
136,64
128,41
116,28
116,95
114,85
124,74
108,67
111,92
110,02
92,21
94,79
90,54
84,65
90,37
91,79
92,58
91,34
3,96
3,97
4,04
4,17
4,37
4,55
4,78
5,02
5,06
5,04
4,98
5,16
5,33
5,55
5,29
5,40
5,22
5,04
4,92
4,74
4,90
5,13
4,95
4,49
4,54
4,39
4,18
4,23
4,40
4,88
4,87
4,96
5,18
5,43
5,64
5,61
5,83
6,03
6,30
6,54
6,78
7,08
7,43
165
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
88,62
86,68
86,93
85,91
81,95
87,87
90,24
103,60
103,68
96,87
100,35
104,34
100,89
97,84
94,68
102,30
107,66
111,35
117,29
124,27
126,24
147,00
150,70
149,93
148,98
134,62
149,46
156,40
184,94
200,40
199,42
219,51
231,81
244,16
237,84
204,99
226,96
245,01
297,45
341,12
333,06
395,50
400,19
7,65
8,18
8,47
8,95
9,33
9,85
10,21
10,30
10,86
11,60
12,06
12,78
15,01
16,16
12,78
11,76
11,61
12,49
13,02
13,57
13,06
13,02
12,39
11,64
11,16
10,45
9,47
8,88
8,33
8,87
9,72
9,36
9,94
9,85
9,45
9,85
10,60
11,26
11,66
12,72
15,02
16,15
16,13
166
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
433,46
463,37
476,76
486,33
512,99
538,17
570,30
611,15
595,53
618,66
620,39
626,74
658,12
678,11
718,49
735,30
726,48
730,51
743,66
750,41
783,25
778,09
775,37
796,06
816,76
838,93
879,94
906,72
895,26
877,96
833,63
807,29
790,15
725,56
696,84
680,24
704,85
710,79
732,79
653,17
678,38
727,36
754,18
14,99
14,77
14,79
14,75
14,89
14,94
15,40
16,13
16,41
15,41
15,28
15,31
15,34
15,65
15,79
15,87
16,16
16,37
16,88
16,61
17,34
18,48
19,26
21,59
31,19
30,94
32,54
35,14
37,36
45,30
56,55
63,65
64,56
68,22
100,00
110,42
109,12
149,98
177,72
336,19
476,51
578,72
742,18
167
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
739,70
706,88
719,46
703,40
733,33
721,22
665,24
677,19
687,32
615,17
557,43
647,91
702,66
759,08
807,44
832,38
792,27
977,05
1.591,52
2.415,29
5.205,55
6.972,70
8.289,86
10.461,20
13.542,32
14.625,29
19.454,98
26.251,33
35.164,63
45.574,79
53.734,65
61.344,76
80.407,14
87.149,20
Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología
168
Anexo 6: Consumo, Oferta, Demanda per cápita en bolívares a precios de 1984
siguiendo los parámetros usados por el Banco Central de Venezuela en los informes
económicos anuales. Private Consumption, Aggregate supply, Aggregate domestic
supply and Aggregate domestic demand per capita in 1984 Bolivares using the
parameters of the Central Bank of Venezuela.
Consumo Privado
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863
1864
per cápita Bs 1984
3.153,15
3.084,87
3.492,23
3.482,91
3.483,65
3.324,29
3.130,16
2.894,44
2.531,89
2.421,23
2.481,19
2.468,03
2.573,22
2.525,29
2.498,60
2.472,81
2.434,68
2.431,74
2.434,67
2.324,34
2.745,83
2.620,21
2.692,05
2.778,61
3.000,36
3.034,92
2.305,93
2.989,44
2.794,38
2.920,98
2.932,93
2.978,39
2.770,89
2.771,63
2.709,27
Oferta Global
per cápita
Bs1984
3.772,84
3.888,61
4.332,48
4.369,28
4.521,66
4.365,84
4.285,87
3.838,84
3.643,96
3.639,11
3.654,75
3.807,54
4.071,13
3.692,13
3.744,85
3.860,33
3.843,59
3.545,68
3.408,49
3.267,49
4.029,57
3.899,08
3.896,31
4.245,79
4.323,07
4.355,39
3.615,96
4.151,81
4.130,00
4.017,43
4.040,19
4.264,18
3.729,88
3.400,67
3.850,39
Oferta Interna
per cápita
1984
3.267,56
3.053,47
3.510,42
3.581,23
3.514,83
3.522,30
3.048,30
3.078,35
2.582,14
2.153,17
1.924,86
2.365,04
2.844,63
2.694,83
2.661,23
2.622,62
2.718,99
2.746,61
2.873,82
2.510,80
2.844,83
2.716,36
2.973,18
3.087,05
3.162,90
3.397,19
2.338,83
2.759,30
2.663,20
2.785,80
3.209,04
3.527,06
3.155,88
2.945,15
2.312,57
Demanda Agregada
Interna per cápita
1984
3.505,12
3.533,34
3.955,59
3.963,53
4.043,09
3.804,83
3.632,15
3.308,85
2.981,19
2.929,30
2.934,76
2.937,83
3.258,06
3.017,29
3.134,20
3.049,77
3.131,40
2.950,53
2.866,87
2.812,44
3.359,53
3.253,95
3.305,34
3.543,77
3.685,00
3.754,47
2.944,20
3.610,47
3.327,73
3.236,89
3.513,47
3.607,92
3.215,89
2.989,78
3.177,00
169
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
2.723,49
2.746,64
2.735,55
2.705,18
2.680,68
2.638,25
2.625,57
2.685,08
3.023,56
3.065,24
2.893,98
2.865,45
2.923,05
3.176,73
3.206,21
3.257,62
3.194,77
3.015,45
3.248,48
3.453,64
3.175,56
3.424,91
3.374,02
3.395,30
3.440,19
3.413,71
3.378,49
3.165,74
3.041,56
3.085,41
3.161,35
3.012,28
3.231,10
3.233,50
2.753,48
2.752,96
2.752,57
2.711,27
2.694,76
2.702,69
2.725,85
2.671,64
2.692,65
3.921,59
3.710,22
3.245,75
3.414,98
3.467,29
3.514,09
3.643,26
3.741,08
4.138,83
4.400,17
4.187,07
4.248,02
4.181,03
4.212,65
4.188,39
4.394,55
4.508,05
4.735,08
4.773,13
4.862,64
4.545,22
4.940,55
5.192,04
5.209,58
5.429,72
5.626,78
5.361,15
4.678,29
4.822,64
4.660,77
4.985,43
4.470,18
4.350,38
4.465,78
3.710,96
3.782,60
3.694,24
3.205,00
3.596,16
3.564,39
3.576,81
3.545,48
3.459,50
2.625,23
2.753,17
2.600,38
2.511,28
3.063,15
2.928,37
2.697,47
2.661,75
2.812,62
3.197,40
2.567,87
2.762,84
2.926,36
3.377,30
3.260,82
3.521,99
3.356,25
3.004,41
3.331,78
3.706,13
3.381,68
3.540,65
3.545,54
3.546,09
3.679,73
4.175,59
3.846,73
3.605,83
3.500,75
3.537,20
3.916,90
3.319,31
3.653,94
3.375,64
2.894,53
2.974,44
2.808,59
2.834,37
2.846,57
2.979,42
3.060,08
2.983,61
2.888,85
3.197,39
3.118,33
2.987,12
3.032,55
3.007,84
2.829,19
2.935,06
2.923,97
3.292,37
3.417,16
3.319,92
3.525,73
3.452,80
3.639,07
3.694,23
3.722,88
3.813,37
3.746,01
4.015,30
4.108,64
3.778,53
4.073,74
4.251,54
4.215,32
4.373,66
4.322,85
4.242,01
3.776,24
3.844,50
3.761,03
4.004,24
3.689,30
3.759,54
3.758,92
3.123,00
3.206,46
3.167,61
2.943,59
3.087,51
3.126,48
3.111,88
3.105,04
3.049,79
170
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
2.626,22
2.644,39
2.624,95
2.622,96
2.606,56
2.708,94
3.231,30
3.206,46
3.026,61
3.192,84
3.055,35
2.940,01
3.128,09
2.801,49
3.066,22
3.135,41
3.041,42
3.029,39
3.243,26
3.026,77
3.043,47
2.984,77
3.024,25
3.069,45
3.049,33
3.502,25
3.531,89
3.935,76
4.137,27
4.015,64
4.328,37
4.471,55
4.625,25
4.426,27
3.780,65
4.137,09
4.448,50
5.404,48
6.203,31
6.081,90
7.289,21
7.473,02
3.343,40
3.376,07
3.426,70
3.490,60
3.545,66
3.552,41
3.917,05
4.021,36
3.878,23
3.836,38
4.038,32
4.064,31
3.936,04
3.635,17
4.046,10
4.417,23
4.744,53
5.129,32
5.577,84
5.465,88
6.449,13
6.473,38
6.173,01
5.809,16
5.263,25
5.768,21
6.354,37
7.290,88
8.099,67
8.316,63
9.092,94
9.466,15
9.825,08
9.574,40
8.074,54
8.801,55
10.221,44
12.655,34
14.417,95
15.294,68
18.750,56
18.175,95
2.864,05
2.846,45
2.721,76
2.373,79
2.742,32
2.887,07
3.478,36
3.386,95
3.031,23
3.331,96
3.409,24
3.144,69
3.051,03
3.122,76
3.268,24
3.287,04
3.209,76
3.244,89
3.308,86
3.552,65
4.046,47
4.298,24
4.528,03
4.826,73
4.346,58
4.930,61
4.795,45
5.935,11
6.203,76
5.933,33
6.632,29
7.122,79
7.645,17
7.397,50
6.593,35
7.384,24
7.271,69
8.630,51
9.970,93
8.490,61
9.513,13
10.456,30
2.937,38
2.972,04
3.000,64
3.047,99
2.958,25
3.037,45
3.531,81
3.584,06
3.487,49
3.530,98
3.440,82
3.424,96
3.667,52
3.210,19
3.558,29
3.845,82
3.906,80
4.132,39
4.501,39
4.109,36
4.525,38
4.460,33
4.339,07
3.896,58
3.864,28
4.305,19
4.699,97
5.259,12
6.130,07
6.105,69
6.977,38
7.505,10
7.977,84
6.935,73
6.290,50
7.176,21
7.871,64
10.076,02
11.074,02
11.112,92
13.230,98
13.197,95
171
1830
1832
1834
1836
1838
1840
1842
1844
1846
1848
1850
1852
1854
1856
1858
1860
1862
1864
1866
1868
1870
1872
1874
1876
1878
1880
1882
1884
1886
1888
1890
1892
1894
1896
1898
1900
1902
1904
1906
1908
1910
1912
1914
1916
1918
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología
Tasa de Copertura de la Demanda Agregada
Interna por La Oferta Interna
1830-1949
1,40
1,20
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
0,00
Serie1
Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología
172
Anexo 7: Deuda/ PIB. Total Public Debt/GDP in millions of current Bolivares and
percent.
1838
1840
1843
1844
1846
1850
1854
1856
1857
1859
1862
1863
1868
1869
1872
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1908
1909
1910
1915
Deuda Total
Millones de BS
95,10
132,07
119
115,96
114,04
118,60
139,51
186,97
200,40
231,45
238,46
256,82
360,55
367,24
344,14
107,40
106,97
106,50
106,16
105,91
105,51
105,27
135,64
131,65
193,62
194,79
195,08
192,45
189,87
239,11
244,62
233,60
222,90
244,70
218,10
218,20
197,80
155,70
PIB
Deuda/ PIB
millones de BS
126,14
75,39
119,33
110,68
141,17
84,30
146,66
79,07
147,66
77,23
162,22
73,11
201,40
69,27
174,58
107,10
183,49
109,22
188,01
123,11
206,02
115,75
190,00
135,17
212,38
169,77
246,65
148,89
274,80
125,23
425,47
25,24
443,43
24,12
419,03
25,42
428,29
24,79
435,24
24,33
450,36
23,43
458,04
22,98
453,20
29,93
505,61
26,04
465,06
41,63
504,62
38,60
517,19
37,72
467,38
41,18
468,01
40,57
458,03
52,20
511,05
47,87
541,81
43,11
577,37
38,61
600,52
40,75
636,87
34,25
665,47
32,79
699,31
28,29
1.057,49
14,72
173
1920
1925
1930
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
131,60
92,30
50,70
1,00
1,00
10,00
25,00
26,00
25,00
31,00
23,00
23,00
23,00
15,00
15,00
177,00
305,00
458,00
702,00
699,00
1.355,00
1.168,00
1.325,00
2.678,00
2.777,00
2.576,00
2.230,00
1.930,00
2.128,00
2.354,00
2.829,00
3.528,00
4.383,00
5.491,00
6.482,00
7.210,00
8.434,00
10.176,00
12.801,00
22.397,00
32.386,85
44.631,84
56.504,46
1.531,62
1.524,65
1.889,83
3.229,73
3.087,35
2.881,71
3.540,21
4.198,71
5.463,16
7.041,86
8.358,32
10.996,54
11.446,00
11.826,00
13.007,00
13.981,00
14.806,00
16.377,00
17.893,00
20.400,00
23.847,00
24.585,00
24.904,00
25.671,00
27.024,00
29.525,00
32.186,00
35.637,00
37.925,00
39.516,00
41.625,00
45.155,00
46.283,00
52.025,00
57.141,00
61.502,00
73.253,00
112.234,00
118.098,00
135.104,00
155.706,00
169.060,00
207.737,00
8,59
6,05
2,68
0,03
0,03
0,35
0,71
0,62
0,46
0,44
0,28
0,21
0,20
0,13
0,12
1,27
2,06
2,80
3,92
3,43
5,68
4,75
5,32
10,43
10,28
8,72
6,93
5,42
5,61
5,96
6,80
7,81
9,47
10,55
11,34
11,72
11,51
9,07
10,84
16,58
20,80
26,40
27,20
174
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
57.957,83
63.601,38
76.603,48
80.756,78
132.322,68
168.236,24
485.747,80
522.315,75
551.041,57
1.463.539,81
1.741.355,40
2.250.781,57
2.937.484,41
3.975.895,29
6.436.977,62
10.086.350,58
14.659.965,64
14.386.500,79
15.604.045,70
18.396.826,00
23.657.740,52
28.907.318,70
51.116.238,68
65.368.954,67
89.326.894,44
115.552.989,70
254.201,00
285.208,00
291.268,00
290.492,00
420.072,00
464.741,00
489.172,00
696.421,00
873.283,00
1.510.361,00
2.279.261,00
3.037.492,00
4.131.483,00
5.453.903,00
8.675.172,00
13.685.686,00
29.437.682,00
41.943.151,00
50.012.967,00
59.344.600,00
79.655.692,00
88.945.596,00
107.840.166,00
134.227.833,00
212.683.082,00
304.086.815,00
22,80
22,30
26,30
27,80
31,50
36,20
99,30
75,00
63,10
96,90
76,40
74,10
71,10
72,90
74,20
73,70
49,80
34,30
31,20
31,00
29,70
32,50
47,40
48,70
42,00
38,00
Fuentes Cálculos Propios, Memorias de Hacienda varios años, La Economía
venezolana en los últimos 35 años BCV 1976, Hernández María F, et al Determinantes
y Vulnerabilidad de la Deuda Publica en Venezuela 1970-2005 BCV.
175
Anexo 8 Exportaciones per cápita y consumo per cápita. Exports and Consumption
per capita in current Bolivares and index number from 1830-1949.
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863
1864
1865
1866
1867
Exportaciones en Bolívares Índice
Consumo per cápita
Índice
Corrientes per cápita
1830=100
en Bs Corrientes
1830=100
10,03
100,00
118,12
100,00
12,86
128,22
111,65
94,53
13,25
132,16
122,81
103,98
14,51
144,66
124,54
105,43
17,34
172,88
126,21
106,85
20,85
207,85
123,52
104,57
24,56
244,85
117,58
99,54
20,67
206,11
112,89
95,57
25,49
254,13
97,36
82,43
27,56
274,84
94,02
79,60
27,98
278,96
96,41
81,62
33,81
337,10
95,94
81,22
29,50
294,10
93,35
79,03
25,46
253,91
95,29
80,67
23,40
233,28
95,73
81,04
29,21
291,28
89,12
75,45
25,91
258,34
88,57
74,99
22,14
220,76
90,46
76,58
21,73
216,64
97,67
82,68
19,31
192,51
98,62
83,49
24,13
240,63
98,90
83,72
24,50
244,28
99,50
84,24
22,22
221,57
101,22
85,70
26,14
260,68
103,48
87,60
24,81
247,39
116,67
98,77
25,46
253,86
128,58
108,86
27,73
276,50
95,19
80,59
19,98
199,20
110,32
93,40
30,16
300,74
105,05
88,94
29,24
291,54
109,42
92,63
20,21
201,56
112,56
95,29
25,42
253,51
115,39
97,69
20,09
200,37
108,33
91,71
15,89
158,39
107,15
90,72
26,64
265,60
107,17
90,73
28,74
286,60
108,09
91,51
23,91
238,37
110,94
93,92
10,77
107,42
113,95
96,47
176
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
16,71
20,92
32,76
35,57
40,92
42,67
48,98
44,74
38,48
40,39
30,35
26,68
35,03
35,02
48,65
35,92
36,98
39,35
42,89
42,25
45,10
46,33
54,46
47,30
39,67
47,73
43,78
48,69
40,43
32,07
39,85
32,98
33,58
31,77
16,47
33,28
29,70
32,90
32,73
31,36
33,20
34,21
38,11
166,58
208,59
326,63
354,72
408,02
425,44
488,37
446,13
383,73
402,71
302,59
266,02
349,33
349,22
485,08
358,21
368,74
392,34
427,65
421,31
449,73
461,95
543,07
471,62
395,51
475,94
436,52
485,45
403,16
319,76
397,33
328,84
334,78
316,82
164,21
331,85
296,15
328,08
326,36
312,65
331,08
341,11
380,02
118,18
122,06
126,18
131,89
134,47
152,41
152,73
149,32
152,67
162,11
168,08
173,10
169,91
161,07
148,32
153,99
169,39
162,98
169,46
151,58
154,02
150,92
142,59
142,78
139,21
148,42
150,13
156,86
155,97
175,37
182,28
154,44
160,43
166,08
170,81
176,32
183,31
192,91
198,54
206,07
214,77
223,91
234,80
100,05
103,33
106,83
111,66
113,84
129,03
129,30
126,42
129,25
137,24
142,29
146,55
143,85
136,36
125,57
130,37
143,41
137,98
143,47
128,33
130,40
127,77
120,72
120,88
117,85
125,66
127,10
132,80
132,05
148,47
154,32
130,75
135,82
140,60
144,61
149,27
155,19
163,32
168,08
174,46
181,82
189,56
198,78
177
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
41,28
57,86
52,58
39,69
47,51
45,33
36,83
76,39
95,97
43,40
54,33
57,38
66,34
104,62
129,79
146,08
177,16
250,46
249,34
213,48
213,46
146,14
138,49
146,97
169,29
174,77
214,93
198,09
195,01
181,96
249,30
175,74
172,28
264,47
300,69
425,21
628,07
891,54
803,13
411,61
576,93
524,32
395,77
473,74
451,94
367,23
761,67
956,92
432,79
541,75
572,16
661,50
1.043,15
1.294,18
1.456,59
1.766,51
2.497,34
2.486,19
2.128,67
2.128,42
1.457,15
1.380,85
1.465,48
1.688,04
1.742,69
2.143,06
1.975,21
1.944,47
1.814,38
2.485,80
1.752,31
1.717,83
2.637,08
2.998,22
4.239,80
6.262,57
8.889,64
8.008,09
244,63
256,75
276,62
332,92
348,37
351,08
385,04
390,61
441,31
505,63
358,16
360,69
364,03
379,82
394,41
440,13
395,30
396,24
369,70
352,05
342,58
318,54
331,52
313,76
327,94
367,12
390,36
405,29
444,66
455,61
418,19
372,42
438,52
500,69
630,04
788,81
913,46
1.177,38
1.205,67
207,11
217,37
234,18
281,86
294,93
297,23
325,98
330,69
373,61
428,07
303,22
305,36
308,19
321,56
333,91
372,62
334,66
335,46
312,99
298,04
290,03
269,67
280,66
265,63
277,64
310,81
330,48
343,12
376,45
385,72
354,04
315,29
371,25
423,88
533,40
667,81
773,34
996,77
1.020,72
Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología, Veloz Economía y
Finanzas de Venezuela 1830-1944. Academia Nacional de la Historia. Caracas.
178
Exports in Bs 1830-1949
1830
1834
1838
1842
1846
1850
1854
1858
1862
1866
1870
1874
1878
1882
1886
1890
1894
1898
1902
1906
1910
1914
1918
1922
1926
1930
1934
1938
1942
1946
4.750.000.000,00
4.500.000.000,00
4.250.000.000,00
4.000.000.000,00
3.750.000.000,00
3.500.000.000,00
3.250.000.000,00
3.000.000.000,00
2.750.000.000,00
2.500.000.000,00
2.250.000.000,00
2.000.000.000,00
1.750.000.000,00
1.500.000.000,00
1.250.000.000,00
1.000.000.000,00
750.000.000,00
500.000.000,00
250.000.000,00
0,00
Serie1
Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología, Veloz Economía y
Finanzas de Venezuela 1830-1944. Academia Nacional de la Historia. Caracas.
179
Anexo 9: Composición del PIB en Bolívares de 1984. Composition GDP in 1984
millions of Bolivares.
Consumption
Población
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863
1864
1865
865.174
888.743
912.312
935.881
959.450
983.018
1.006.588
1.030.157
1.053.726
1.077.295
1.100.864
1.124.433
1.148.002
1.171.571
1.195.140
1.218.709
1.237.062
1.255.408
1.273.754
1.292.101
1.310.447
1.328.793
1.347.139
1.365.486
1.383.832
1.402.178
1.420.524
1.438.871
1.457.217
1.475.564
1.493.910
1.512.256
1.530.602
1.548.949
1.567.295
1.585.641
Consumo
Millones de Bs
1984
2.728,09
2.741,65
3.186,00
3.259,59
3.342,38
3.267,83
3.150,78
2.981,73
2.667,98
2.608,37
2.731,44
2.775,13
2.954,06
2.958,55
2.986,17
3.013,63
3.011,84
3.052,82
3.101,16
3.003,28
3.598,26
3.481,72
3.626,57
3.794,15
4.151,99
4.255,50
3.275,62
4.301,42
4.072,02
4.310,09
4.381,52
4.504,09
4.241,12
4.293,11
4.246,22
4.318,47
Gov. Spending Private investment Net X
Gastos del
Gobierno
Millones de
Bs 1984
136,21
157,34
160,23
173,23
160,06
161,42
217,54
187,95
188,12
248,98
185,31
198,55
398,99
249,25
390,53
326,03
503,40
330,28
353,00
401,93
485,28
492,69
378,48
633,43
594,22
753,65
607,33
613,06
520,69
284,41
761,73
868,40
624,02
291,33
600,50
638,38
Inversión Privada
Export. Neto
Millones de Bs 1984 Millones de Bs 1984
168,30
13,04
241,22
-55,36
262,49
-31,14
276,56
10,97
376,73
-23,83
310,95
136,87
287,75
35,16
238,94
154,26
285,30
138,94
298,36
-35,72
314,00
-159,56
329,70
166,93
387,20
229,39
327,15
206,42
369,09
82,27
377,09
233,63
358,48
185,42
321,04
245,58
197,50
349,37
228,73
99,1
318,93
101,78
349,41
71,44
447,49
174,33
411,38
167,48
353,20
80,24
255,27
170,81
299,34
47,15
280,51
-222,9
256,49
100,35
181,73
243,06
105,54
166,04
83,60
435,07
57,10
347,43
46,56
283,65
132,56
-149,7
113,05
120,54
180
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1.603.987
1.622.334
1.640.680
1.659.026
1.677.372
1.695.719
1.714.064
1.732.411
1.766.502
1.800.593
1.834.684
1.868.775
1.902.866
1.936.957
1.971.048
2.005.139
2.026.782
2.048.425
2.070.068
2.091.712
2.113.355
2.134.998
2.156.642
2.178.285
2.199.928
2.221.572
2.238.492
2.255.413
2.272.334
2.289.255
2.306.175
2.323.095
2.340.015
2.356.935
2.373.855
2.390.775
2.407.695
2.424.615
2.441.535
2.458.455
2.475.375
2.492.225
2.509.215
4.405,52
4.437,96
4.438,32
4.447,31
4.425,32
4.452,22
4.602,40
5.238,04
5.414,75
5.210,87
5.257,19
5.462,52
6.044,89
6.210,28
6.420,92
6.405,95
6.111,65
6.654,25
7.149,26
6.642,36
7.238,05
7.203,51
7.322,44
7.493,70
7.509,92
7.505,48
7.086,48
6.859,98
7.011,09
7.237,12
6.946,84
7.506,15
7.566,44
6.489,77
6.535,13
6.580,77
6.527,91
6.533,75
6.598,70
6.701,36
6.613,31
6.710,70
6.589,74
511,75
350,55
455,56
475,26
266,23
436,59
307,72
339,32
504,81
431,08
458,11
387,37
425,07
435,30
432,64
595,10
508,69
759,42
703,51
603,73
578,91
940,54
824,96
1.040,15
1.176,04
1.058,43
758,98
1.063,95
902,05
1.329,31
916,90
839,08
632,42
432,57
651,79
537,35
373,59
586,41
757,19
711,37
822,82
645,16
582,90
84,43
57,58
81,54
67,50
54,03
88,20
101,75
126,36
116,85
335,86
753,28
602,70
454,68
509,97
484,40
645,28
971,98
811,35
653,37
657,48
792,27
932,95
943,52
993,21
823,98
859,94
607,61
746,99
633,17
600,28
644,41
388,53
597,05
438,35
424,74
454,91
185,74
365,85
277,50
237,68
250,00
244,89
197,85
181,83
-103,93
-113,89
427
657,6
399,02
475,54
317,65
674,13
103,61
-37,24
188,55
296,67
58,83
463,96
238,16
250,79
76,11
363,79
386,79
352,64
250,34
350,48
394,42
1272,29
804,05
818,87
715,4
767,94
1023,13
473,79
563,62
378,59
423,66
408,43
200,34
183,21
324,54
355,06
507,82
394,82
309,99
417,4
181
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
2.526.135
2.543.055
2.559.975
2.576.895
2.593.815
2.610.735
2.627.655
2.644.575
2.661.495
2.678.415
2.695.335
2.712.255
2.729.175
2.746.095
2.763.015
2.779.935
2.796.855
2.814.131
2.869.152
2.924.174
2.979.195
3.034.217
3.089.239
3.144.260
3.199.282
3.254.303
3.309.325
3.364.347
3.461.631
3.558.916
3.656.201
3.753.486
3.850.771
3.988.875
4.126.979
4.265.083
4.403.187
4.541.291
4.679.395
4.817.499
4.955.603
6.680,07
6.675,38
6.714,70
6.716,83
7.026,49
8.436,07
8.425,47
8.004,08
8.497,72
8.183,48
7.924,30
8.484,16
7.645,76
8.420,13
8.663,17
8.454,95
8.472,77
9.126,96
8.684,26
8.899,64
8.892,20
9.176,22
9.482,27
9.587,90
11.204,69
11.493,84
13.024,69
13.919,21
13.900,66
15.404,30
16.348,88
17.360,81
17.044,56
15.080,53
17.073,67
18.973,23
23.796,92
28.171,04
28.459,60
35.115,74
37.033,31
618,11
689,09
686,95
633,33
635,31
435,11
533,19
500,37
439,06
454,93
453,45
635,07
632,30
612,19
880,68
924,77
1.252,89
1.317,52
1.192,25
1.879,95
2.139,55
2.241,26
1.490,68
1.549,85
1.626,11
2.013,98
2.798,56
3.211,80
3.219,81
3.855,32
3.871,59
3.745,97
3.535,16
3.075,96
3.169,91
3.642,78
4.983,80
7.486,70
8.635,53
10.178,09
12.117,55
209,58
266,30
401,11
272,94
216,75
349,42
459,01
718,46
460,87
577,51
853,65
828,01
483,09
793,07
1.082,18
1.480,91
1.832,01
2.223,08
1.913,86
2.453,40
2.266,44
1.748,17
1.064,51
1.012,52
942,71
1.787,28
1.580,88
3.492,63
4.015,19
5.572,27
7.219,66
8.837,84
6.128,20
6.935,52
9.372,44
10.957,21
15.585,90
14.632,65
14.906,58
18.446,36
16.252,95
351,69
187,15
-296,43
478,62
472,83
433,12
315,56
-86,63
141,57
745,89
483,922
-471,89
460,62
271,52
17,45
195,54
153,04
-163,33
1147,38
2112,46
2757,17
3068,95
4390,92
2957,61
3340,75
2847,33
4480,4
3437,18
3528,41
3150,47
2886,09
2842,46
5969,54
4162,18
3783,13
3731,62
2496,18
5088,12
3648,62
4339,92
5541,22
Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología.
182
Anexo 10: Graficos Inversiones 1870-1935. Public and Private Investment for Presidential
periods 1870-1935
130.000.000
125.000.000
120.000.000
115.000.000
110.000.000
105.000.000
100.000.000
95.000.000
90.000.000
85.000.000
80.000.000
75.000.000
70.000.000
65.000.000
60.000.000
55.000.000
50.000.000
45.000.000
40.000.000
35.000.000
30.000.000
25.000.000
20.000.000
15.000.000
10.000.000
5.000.000
0
Inversiones Publicas en Infraestrutura por Periodos Presidenciales
1870-1935
en Bolivares Corrientes
1870- 1877- 1878- 1884- 1886- 1888- 1890- 1892- 1898- 1899- 1908- 1913- 1914- 1922- 1929- 19311877 1878 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1898 1899 1908 1913 1914 1922 1929 1931 1935
183
Inversiones Privadas por Periodo Presidencial 1870-1935
en Bolivares Corrientes
1.800.000.000
1.750.000.000
1.700.000.000
1.650.000.000
1.600.000.000
1.550.000.000
1.500.000.000
1.450.000.000
1.400.000.000
1.350.000.000
1.300.000.000
1.250.000.000
1.200.000.000
1.150.000.000
1.100.000.000
1.050.000.000
1.000.000.000
950.000.000
900.000.000
850.000.000
800.000.000
750.000.000
700.000.000
650.000.000
600.000.000
550.000.000
500.000.000
450.000.000
400.000.000
350.000.000
300.000.000
250.000.000
200.000.000
150.000.000
100.000.000
50.000.000
0
1870- 1877- 1878- 1884- 1886- 1888- 1890- 1892- 1898- 1899- 1908- 1913- 1914- 1922- 1929- 19311877 1878 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1898 1899 1908 1913 1914 1922 1929 1931 1935
Fuente para ambos graficos: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología y
Anuarios Estadisticos del Ministerio de Fomento
184
Anexo 11 :Indice de Inflacion 1830-1949
General Inflation Food Inflation
años
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863
1864
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
INDICE
GENERAL
DE PRECIOS
100=1830
100
97
94
95
97
99
100
104
103
104
104
104
97
101
102
96
97
99
107
113
96
101
100
99
104
113
110
99
100
100
102
103
104
103
106
106
108
111
117
122
INDICE
INFLACION
ALIMENTOS
100=1830
100
101
97
97
96
96
95
95
94
95
94
97
98
101
98
96
97
102
111
108
94
103
105
107
111
121
113
99
102
101
102
102
105
104
106
109
110
112
115
117
185
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
128
135
134
135
133
138
143
149
142
145
140
135
132
127
131
137
133
120
122
118
112
113
118
131
130
133
139
145
151
150
156
162
169
175
182
190
199
205
219
227
240
250
264
274
276
291
311
323
343
402
433
120
123
125
128
125
129
128
141
139
138
133
126
125
120
125
121
126
108
111
107
103
104
103
117
122
127
131
140
146
145
151
158
165
173
182
190
200
209
221
232
245
257
272
254
268
271
275
284
298
307
352
186
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
343
315
311
335
349
364
350
349
332
312
299
280
254
238
223
238
260
251
266
264
253
264
284
302
312
341
402
433
432
293
278
277
285
290
306
296
302
295
290
280
261
254
231
214
221
242
252
272
257
259
295
331
361
363
391
468
471
447
Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología
187
Precios añil y cacao. Prices of Indigo and Cocoa Bolivares/KG
años
1783
1784
1785
1786
1787
1788
1789
1790
1791
1792
1793
1794
1795
1796
1797
1798
1799
1800
1801
1802
1803
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
1810
1811
1812
1813
1814
1815
1816
1817
1818
1819
1820
1821
añil Bs /kg
15,796
17,864
18,5614
17,875
13,75
13,75
13,75
13,75
13,75
19,25
13,75
17,875
13,75
13,75
14,08
11,682
12,375
19,25
12,43
18,48
17,05
17,38
13,75
13,75
17,182
17,05
17,38
17,27
13,75
15,51
15,51
15,51
15,73
16,5
13,53
14,19
15,73
16,06
16,61
Cacao Bs /KG
1
1,03
1,16
1,32
1,32
1,4
1,48
1,2
1,64
1,7
2,041
1,8
1,93
2
1,8
1,8
1,8
1,144
1,103
2,022
2,54
3,357
1,554
1,926
1,693
1,295
1,637
1,398
1,016
1,057
1,016
1,543
2,493
2,567
1,966
2,177
2,328
2,24
2,148
188
1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
1829
1830
20,13
20,02
21,34
21,78
20,9
18,81
16,72
17,16
14,08
2,07
2,3
2,49
2,26
2,287
1,929
1,873
2,243
1,93
Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología y Yoston Ferrigni
Crisis de la economia colonial en venenuela Tomos I y II. Pacheco Troconis J. G 2000.
El Añil en Venezuela. Historia de un Cultivo olvidado en Venezuela Tomo I y II Tesis
Doctoral. Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona.
189
Anexo 12: Precios de algunos productos de exportacion y consumo en Venezuela. Prices
of Export goods and some basic products of Domestic Consumption
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863
1864
1865
1866
Cacao
Café
Arroz
Maíz
Carne Salada
carne
Kg
Kg
Kg
Kg
Kg
Kg
Papelón
800gr-1
Kg
0,65
0,68
0,68
0,74
0,84
0,93
0,81
0,64
0,68
0,71
0,68
0,64
0,78
0,74
0,74
0,79
0,83
0,91
0,80
0,93
0,79
1,06
0,94
0,79
0,68
0,99
0,91
1,19
1,45
0,44
0,50
0,58
0,66
0,75
1,15
1,18
0,75
0,47
0,46
0,50
0,56
0,75
0,79
0,63
0,46
0,64
0,51
0,59
0,51
0,32
0,39
0,41
0,42
0,46
0,39
0,47
0,38
0,35
0,41
0,49
0,40
0,41
0,50
0,43
0,60
0,60
0,63
0,57
0,57
0,54
0,52
0,75
0,61
0,49
1,81
1,56
1,50
1,44
1,41
1,34
1,34
1,25
1,19
1,16
1,13
1,06
1,03
1,00
0,97
0,91
0,88
0,84
0,81
0,78
0,75
0,72
0,69
0,69
0,66
0,63
0,31
0,44
0,44
0,44
0,44
0,46
0,44
0,44
0,47
0,47
0,47
0,59
0,52
0,63
0,65
0,59
0,54
0,50
0,45
0,41
0,39
0,36
0,33
0,30
0,28
0,25
0,23
0,21
0,19
0,18
0,17
0,15
0,19
0,23
0,30
0,39
0,48
0,19
0,32
0,32
0,33
0,33
0,33
0,34
0,34
0,34
0,36
0,36
0,12
0,15
0,14
0,14
0,13
0,13
0,13
0,12
0,11
0,13
0,15
0,18
0,20
0,23
0,23
0,22
0,20
0,26
0,39
0,38
0,30
0,29
0,28
0,27
0,26
0,25
0,24
0,23
0,23
0,22
0,21
0,21
0,19
0,19
0,18
0,18
0,17
0,14
0,14
0,15
0,17
0,17
0,18
0,19
0,21
0,21
0,22
0,23
0,25
0,26
0,29
0,30
0,32
0,34
0,36
0,39
0,40
0,43
0,45
0,92
0,92
0,92
0,92
0,92
0,92
0,92
0,92
0,92
0,98
1,05
1,10
1,17
1,25
1,33
0,11
0,14
0,14
0,13
0,13
0,15
0,14
0,13
0,10
0,12
0,11
0,12
0,12
0,11
0,15
0,11
0,11
0,13
0,10
0,12
0,10
0,12
0,13
0,14
0,16
0,17
0,18
0,19
0,15
0,20
0,21
0,20
0,18
0,17
0,16
0,14
0,17
190
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
0,75
0,75
0,75
0,86
0,99
1,15
1,04
0,81
0,59
0,60
0,60
0,90
0,85
0,79
0,77
0,80
0,81
0,83
0,83
1,02
0,73
0,68
0,67
0,74
0,73
0,66
0,65
0,57
0,52
0,39
0,65
0,64
0,75
0,80
0,77
0,74
0,57
0,59
0,53
0,60
0,67
0,56
0,54
0,54
0,59
0,61
0,72
0,85
1,01
0,61
1,64
1,74
1,28
1,90
1,50
1,38
0,91
1,01
1,07
0,94
0,91
0,91
1,19
1,39
1,39
1,65
1,77
1,65
1,47
1,56
1,64
1,39
1,20
1,20
0,72
0,84
0,70
0,67
0,64
0,66
0,79
0,87
0,86
0,86
0,86
0,87
0,44
0,49
0,50
0,50
0,56
0,38
0,13
0,13
0,13
0,13
0,13
0,13
0,13
0,13
0,13
0,13
0,14
0,15
0,11
0,15
0,11
0,11
0,11
0,11
0,11
0,10
0,11
0,12
0,12
0,13
0,14
0,15
0,15
0,16
0,17
0,18
0,19
0,20
0,22
0,23
0,24
0,26
0,27
0,36
0,37
0,37
0,37
0,39
0,39
0,66
0,70
0,66
0,66
0,77
0,66
0,88
0,77
0,70
0,66
0,55
0,55
0,73
0,99
0,66
0,66
0,62
0,44
0,44
0,33
0,42
0,44
0,55
0,44
0,77
0,81
0,22
0,26
0,31
0,35
0,40
0,44
0,48
0,53
0,59
0,66
0,73
0,17
0,16
0,16
0,15
0,14
0,14
0,48
0,48
0,48
0,48
0,48
0,48
0,52
0,50
0,50
0,22
0,24
0,26
0,52
0,17
0,17
0,13
0,14
0,15
0,16
0,17
0,19
0,20
0,21
0,23
0,24
0,26
0,28
0,30
0,32
0,34
0,36
0,39
0,41
0,44
0,47
0,51
0,54
1,42
1,50
1,60
1,69
1,80
1,91
1,91
0,48
0,48
0,48
0,48
0,48
0,48
0,52
0,50
0,50
0,22
0,24
0,26
0,52
0,17
0,17
0,13
0,14
0,15
0,16
0,17
0,19
0,20
0,21
0,23
0,24
0,26
0,28
0,30
0,32
0,34
0,36
0,39
0,41
0,44
0,47
0,51
0,19
0,18
0,13
0,19
0,22
0,20
0,19
0,20
0,24
0,21
0,25
0,21
0,22
0,22
0,23
0,26
0,25
0,24
0,24
0,30
0,25
0,23
0,24
0,26
0,27
0,32
0,28
0,36
0,26
0,29
0,26
0,30
0,28
0,31
0,31
0,32
0,29
0,32
0,34
0,33
0,34
0,34
0,35
191
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
0,52
0,55
0,70
0,71
0,63
0,36
0,50
0,72
0,24
0,45
0,39
0,39
0,38
0,21
0,22
0,20
0,25
0,29
0,19
0,26
0,25
0,21
0,23
0,27
0,21
0,26
1,16
1,42
1,43
1,19
1,01
1,02
1,03
0,86
1,40
2,29
1,21
0,68
1,14
1,66
2,25
2,39
2,16
2,03
2,17
1,63
1,24
1,11
1,15
0,80
0,64
0,55
0,29
0,30
0,50
0,67
0,71
0,73
0,93
1,26
1,27
1,65
1,03
0,81
0,71
0,73
0,74
0,75
0,74
0,71
0,66
0,65
0,58
0,53
0,50
0,48
0,50
0,57
0,79
0,86
0,35
0,37
0,57
0,68
0,75
0,51
0,57
0,75
1,01
0,44
0,70
0,70
0,57
0,66
0,97
0,81
0,97
0,77
0,73
0,57
0,42
0,70
0,62
0,53
0,58
0,62
0,66
0,69
0,72
0,75
0,78
0,81
0,85
0,89
0,93
0,97
1,02
1,07
1,12
1,17
1,23
1,29
1,35
1,42
1,00
1,57
2,00
1,50
1,00
1,00
0,54
0,58
0,62
0,66
0,69
caraotas
Kg
queso
Kg
Papa
Kg
Aguardiente
botella
Jabón
Kg
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,73
0,73
0,73
0,73
0,73
0,73
0,65
0,58
0,53
0,47
0,70
0,59
0,81
0,13
0,13
0,14
0,13
0,13
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,16
0,16
0,16
0,69
0,96
0,93
0,89
1,36
1,48
1,55
1,56
0,26
0,26
0,26
0,24
0,24
0,44
0,39
0,39
0,41
0,42
0,43
0,44
0,45
0,46
0,47
0,48
0,49
0,51
0,35
0,35
0,47
0,47
0,38
0,36
0,42
0,78
0,75
0,85
1,41
0,74
0,58
0,83
1,00
0,87
1,12
0,93
0,79
0,67
0,65
0,62
0,50
0,44
0,40
0,72
192
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863
1864
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,16
0,13
0,17
0,23
0,30
0,40
0,53
0,25
0,28
0,29
0,30
0,31
0,33
0,33
0,34
0,36
0,37
0,38
0,39
0,41
0,43
0,44
0,45
0,47
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,11
0,13
0,22
0,16
0,21
0,11
0,11
0,14
0,32
0,14
0,80
0,53
0,52
0,66
0,77
0,85
0,53
0,78
0,71
0,64
0,63
0,60
0,52
0,45
0,43
0,38
0,39
0,40
0,43
0,47
0,51
0,56
0,61
0,66
0,71
0,78
0,84
0,91
0,99
1,08
1,08
1,08
1,08
1,09
1,09
1,09
1,10
1,10
1,10
1,10
1,11
1,11
1,11
0,16
0,16
0,16
0,16
0,16
0,17
0,17
0,18
0,18
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,19
0,09
0,09
0,09
0,13
0,14
0,13
0,15
0,16
0,17
0,19
0,20
0,21
0,23
0,25
0,27
0,28
0,31
0,17
0,10
0,02
0,01
0,05
0,15
0,12
0,15
0,18
0,15
0,14
0,13
0,17
0,58
0,92
0,69
0,46
0,53
0,69
0,84
0,85
0,86
0,86
0,84
0,84
0,81
0,77
0,75
0,72
0,69
0,66
0,63
0,59
0,56
0,59
0,62
0,64
0,68
0,71
0,74
0,78
0,81
0,81
0,29
0,29
0,29
0,31
0,31
0,28
0,30
0,33
0,34
0,29
0,29
0,29
0,29
0,52
0,53
0,54
0,56
0,57
0,59
0,60
0,61
0,63
0,64
0,66
0,68
0,69
0,71
0,73
0,74
0,76
0,78
0,80
0,83
0,84
0,86
0,89
0,91
0,93
0,95
0,98
1,00
1,03
1,05
2,00
1,99
2,00
2,00
2,00
2,00
2,00
1,63
2,00
1,50
1,60
1,69
1,69
193
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
0,11
0,13
0,17
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,14
0,50
0,52
0,93
0,83
0,68
0,64
0,58
0,75
1,00
0,55
0,63
0,50
0,58
0,71
0,86
0,71
0,78
1,12
1,12
1,12
1,12
1,22
1,22
1,23
1,23
1,23
1,23
1,24
1,24
1,24
1,25
1,30
1,30
1,31
1,31
1,31
1,32
1,36
1,36
1,36
1,37
1,38
1,40
1,39
2,11
2,11
3,11
3,37
3,26
3,16
3,06
3,06
3,06
3,06
3,09
3,11
3,14
2,62
2,10
2,05
0,16
0,16
0,21
0,20
0,19
0,18
0,17
0,19
0,20
0,22
0,24
0,26
0,28
0,31
0,33
0,36
0,39
0,43
0,46
0,50
0,55
0,59
0,65
0,70
0,76
0,83
0,90
0,96
0,25
0,43
0,64
0,42
0,27
0,18
0,18
0,18
0,18
0,19
0,20
0,21
0,38
0,55
0,79
0,29
0,29
0,29
0,20
0,21
0,22
0,26
0,27
0,28
0,29
0,30
0,31
0,33
0,34
0,35
0,37
0,39
0,40
0,42
0,44
0,46
0,49
0,51
0,54
0,56
0,59
1,19
0,99
1,09
1,27
1,26
1,32
1,30
0,89
0,92
0,84
1,07
1,25
1,27
1,23
1,33
1,61
1,49
1,69
1,69
1,69
1,69
1,69
1,69
1,69
1,85
1,92
1,99
2,07
2,16
2,25
2,35
2,45
2,55
2,67
2,69
2,92
3,06
3,20
3,36
3,52
3,70
3,98
4,09
1,00
1,03
1,05
1,07
0,86
1,07
1,15
1,17
1,20
1,16
1,13
1,09
1,06
0,99
1,01
0,99
0,97
194
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
0,70
0,66
0,59
0,51
0,60
0,53
0,42
2,15
2,22
2,29
2,06
2,20
2,45
2,20
1,15
1,66
1,50
1,45
1,20
1,09
1,46
1,46
1,70
1,35
1,31
1,45
1,52
0,95
0,90
0,92
0,90
0,30
0,27
0,30
Fuentes : Calculos propios, Carrillo Batalla Cuentas Nacionales de Venezuela 18001935 BCV Diarios de Avisos y de Epoca correspondientes al siglo XIX varios
numeros y Anuarios Estadisticos de Venezuela
195
Anexo 13 : Precios del petroleo canasta venezolana. Prices of Venezuelan Oil Basket in
current and 1990 dollars.
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
Precios
petróleo
0,88
0,96
0,93
0,80
0,93
0,98
1,01
1,03
1,05
1,05
1,26
1,70
2,14
2,08
2,12
2,00
2,11
2,30
2,31
2,29
2,30
2,59
2,48
2,19
2,08
2,10
2,06
2,03
1,94
1,88
1,88
1,85
1,86
1,81
1,84
2,35
2,52
3,71
Precios
petróleo 1990
8,30
8,74
8,63
7,53
8,66
8,70
8,10
8,26
7,80
7,02
7,37
9,23
11,70
11,30
10,70
9,85
10,30
11,20
11,30
11,00
10,70
11,70
11,10
9,66
9,09
9,07
8,79
8,55
8,03
7,57
7,36
6,95
6,63
6,09
5,95
7,34
7,41
9,83
196
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10,53
10,99
11,25
12,42
12,20
16,30
25,30
29,40
26,80
23,70
25,40
24,67
11,52
15,45
12,83
16,04
19,19
15,09
13,72
12,11
13,23
14,84
18,39
16,32
10,57
16,04
25,91
20,21
21,95
24,82
32,88
48,81
56,35
64,74
86,49
57,08
25,60
25,20
24,30
24,90
22,00
25,90
36,40
39,80
35,20
29,80
30,90
29,40
13,30
17,10
13,50
16,04
18,40
14,10
12,80
11,00
11,70
12,70
15,30
13,30
8,48
12,60
19,70
14,90
15,90
17,60
22,70
32,70
36,50
40,80
52,30
34,80
Fuentes: Ministerio de Energia y Minas PODE: Petróleo y otros datos estadísticos,
Dirección de Planificación y Economía de la Energía. Actual Ministerio del Poder
Popular Para la Energia y Petroleo
197
Anexo 14: Tipo de Cambio Nominal Bs/ Dólar. Hemos obviado el uso de los cambios
oficiales y calculado el tipo de cambio paralelo para el periodo 2003-2008. Pues este ultimo
determina los precios internos. Nominal Exchange Rates Dollar/Bolivares from
2003-2008 we calculated and used the non official exchange rate.
ANOS
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863
TIPO DE
CAMBIO
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
198
1864
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
5,2
199
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
5,2
5,2
5,4
5,27
5,32
5,35
5,27
5,36
5,26
5,14
5,12
4,42
5,07
5,5
6,02
5,34
5,32
5,38
5,22
5,27
5,24
5,21
5,22
5,41
6,13
6,77
5,27
3,54
3,92
3,93
3,38
3,19
3,19
3,19
3,26
3,35
3,35
3,35
3,35
3,35
3,35
3,35
3,35
200
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
3,35
3,35
3,35
3,35
3,35
3,35
3,35
3,35
3,35
3,35
3,43
4,54
4,55
4,54
4,5
4,5
4,5
4,5
4,5
4,5
4,5
4,4
4,3
4,3
4,3
4,3
4,3
4,3
4,3
4,3
4,3
4,3
4,3
8,64
12,53
13,75
19,87
27,88
33,63
38,95
47,16
56,92
68,4
201
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
91,05
148,99
176,39
416,35
487,59
546,55
604,69
678,93
722,66
1158,93
1423,24
1915,22
2331,26
3202,24
4469,01
4504,78
6569,98
Fuente: Izard Estadisticas historicas y Banco Central de Venezuela
Tipo de Cambio Nominal Bolivares por Dolar
1830-2009
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
202
Anexo 15. Evolucion de las economias de Venezuela ( Datos del autor) y Colombia, Chile,
Argentina, Brasil y Mexico datos de Maddison. GDP and GDP per capita of Venezuela,(
our proposed series) and Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Brasil and Mexico ( Maddison)
1783
1784
1785
1786
1787
1788
1789
1790
1791
1792
1793
1794
1795
1796
1797
1798
1799
1800
1801
1802
1803
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
1810
1811
1812
1813
1814
1815
1816
1817
Venezuela
PIB $1990
miles
624,32
579,12
575,69
654,72
818,90
837,90
822,24
814,10
903,00
743,10
977,60
808,96
910,49
957,50
981,00
1.016,30
1.000,00
669,00
887,13
775,57
816,53
749,43
872,80
947,29
791,80
645,17
808,43
749,48
748,24
646,88
629,34
583,87
724,36
689,07
855,22
Pib Per cápita
dólares 1990
Chile
PIB $1990
miles
Pib per cápita
dólares 1990
Colombia
PIB $1990
miles
Pib per cápita
dólares 1990
1.064,07
966,36
940,95
1.048,62
1.285,74
1.290,24
1.242,05
1.206,88
1.314,23
1.062,12
1.372,76
1.116,23
1.234,94
1.277,04
1.286,86
1.311,62
1.270,02
836,27
1.101,43
956,46
1.000,26
911,99
1.055,12
1.137,69
944,80
764,86
952,26
877,19
883,35
770,38
756,12
707,75
885,95
850,44
1.065,17
203
1818
1819
1820
1821
1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
1829
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
821,51
719,38
688,50
682,14
576,37
685,50
629,30
568,22
771,04
643,06
704,64
687,55
906,96
918,71
1.065,42
1.107,91
1.148,13
1.154,67
1.099,26
1.061,05
976,91
929,13
914,60
1.033,52
1.182,19
1.114,20
1.140,07
1.176,50
1.208,82
1.176,24
1.191,59
1.111,73
1.341,40
1.308,99
1.377,96
1.490,99
1.542,54
1.618,72
1.259,56
1.480,78
1.474,03
1.494,78
1.612,61
1.032,66
912,72
881,77
881,95
752,35
880,56
795,71
707,41
945,32
777,28
838,45
806,24
1.048,30
1.033,72
1.167,83
1.183,84
1.196,66
1.174,62
1.092,07
1.029,99
927,11
862,47
830,80
919,15
1.029,79
951,03
953,92
965,37
977,18
936,94
935,50
860,41
1.023,62
985,10
1.022,88
1.091,92
1.114,69
1.154,44
886,69
1.029,13
1.011,54
1.013,02
1.079,46
535,18
523,41
538,34
548,52
547,50
576,67
594,21
610,25
619,30
636,71
640,62
653,57
676,21
687,74
717,06
748,15
757,57
790,94
809,97
827,12
886,52
904,76
932,14
967,74
988,87
1.025,86
1.067,82
1.098,25
1.151,22
1.241,13
1.313,49
1.358,67
1.408,52
1.386,70
1.435,88
1.511,23
1.538,98
1.599,27
1.680,00
1.745,73
1.815,93
693,73
663,26
666,84
664,15
648,03
667,28
672,29
675,20
670,22
674,13
663,74
662,81
671,43
668,78
683,09
698,38
693,17
709,55
712,63
713,88
750,80
752,08
760,68
775,48
778,28
793,17
811,21
819,93
844,79
895,34
931,63
947,61
966,13
935,53
952,89
986,60
988,47
1.010,67
1.044,68
1.068,22
1.093,50
204
1861
1862
1863
1864
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1.754,44
1.569,41
1.463,64
1.438,29
1.545,77
1.543,75
1.412,25
1.447,86
1.613,30
1.609,16
1.601,09
1.617,76
1.787,38
1.998,51
1.811,13
1.915,36
1.977,80
2.150,62
2.148,56
2.323,57
2.348,12
2.335,81
2.472,24
2.641,34
2.469,00
2.669,03
2.777,82
2.811,81
2.954,76
3.211,13
3.046,07
2.761,33
2.795,43
2.773,92
3.034,73
2.674,96
2.768,91
2.732,34
2.318,32
2.388,54
2.310,12
2.165,26
2.326,14
1.160,15
1.025,35
944,92
917,69
974,86
962,45
870,51
882,48
972,44
959,34
944,20
943,82
1.031,73
1.131,34
1.005,86
1.043,98
1.058,34
1.130,20
1.109,25
1.178,85
1.171,06
1.152,48
1.206,90
1.275,97
1.180,38
1.262,94
1.301,09
1.303,79
1.356,47
1.459,66
1.371,14
1.233,57
1.239,44
1.220,74
1.325,64
1.159,91
1.191,91
1.167,66
983,62
1.006,19
966,27
899,31
959,39
1.827,61
1.832,15
1.913,34
2.026,59
2.107,61
2.165,40
2.092,26
2.208,95
2.443,41
2.508,98
2.515,34
2.705,07
2.885,62
2.765,83
2.995,26
2.963,84
2.869,04
3.043,33
3.506,04
3.939,81
4.078,28
4.418,22
4.445,54
4.484,89
4.351,13
4.535,06
4.852,40
4.660,51
4.781,23
5.128,04
5.546,53
5.435,61
5.705,63
5.611,73
6.005,57
6.039,42
5.905,62
6.621,46
6.662,81
6.492,11
6.654,68
6.945,35
6.555,04
1.083,08
1.068,61
1.098,37
1.145,09
1.172,19
1.185,50
1.127,60
1.171,97
1.276,26
1.290,25
1.273,59
1.348,63
1.416,65
1.337,16
1.426,13
1.389,89
1.325,26
1.384,80
1.571,71
1.740,16
1.775,01
1.895,09
1.879,39
1.869,00
1.787,65
1.837,15
1.938,49
1.836,33
1.858,36
1.966,45
2.098,75
2.029,85
2.103,13
2.042,09
2.157,81
2.142,92
2.069,63
2.292,26
2.278,83
2.194,03
2.222,51
2.292,58
2.138,78
3.890,66
973,15
4.169,00
1.022,06
4.245,00
4.374,00
1.019,94
1.029,90
205
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
2.379,12
2.429,68
2.406,67
2.355,98
2.319,38
2.340,69
2.328,31
2.235,52
2.412,85
2.487,19
2.875,07
2.898,76
2.720,97
2.840,96
2.970,39
2.893,41
2.821,94
2.746,43
2.990,99
3.169,84
3.292,76
3.487,69
3.723,99
3.853,11
4.570,20
4.778,65
4.834,99
4.892,70
4.499,44
5.096,98
5.403,20
6.517,65
7.165,83
7.345,47
8.333,74
9.031,79
9.764,71
9.732,03
8.712,51
9.946,98
11.110,16
13.956,72
16.492,88
974,44
988,30
972,25
945,33
924,35
926,59
915,56
873,26
936,34
958,90
1.101,25
1.103,18
1.028,89
1.067,43
1.109,01
1.073,49
1.040,44
1.006,32
1.089,18
1.147,24
1.184,48
1.247,01
1.323,32
1.342,95
1.562,90
1.604,01
1.593,49
1.583,79
1.431,00
1.593,17
1.660,33
1.969,48
2.129,93
2.121,97
2.341,65
2.470,27
2.601,51
2.527,30
2.184,20
2.410,23
2.604,91
3.169,69
3.631,76
7.091,87
7.084,69
7.638,53
8.042,38
8.896,14
8.941,07
9.951,85
9.682,79
10.067,41
10.251,94
8.663,21
8.384,33
10.277,91
10.499,13
10.632,76
9.122,50
10.304,84
8.931,42
9.258,15
11.151,47
11.992,22
12.514,31
11.471,86
11.263,78
13.797,61
14.519,39
12.194,79
9.607,30
8.117,83
10.003,18
12.076,15
12.771,06
13.398,80
15.234,66
15.409,97
15.733,44
16.363,61
16.178,17
16.929,33
17.412,89
17.741,52
19.274,36
20.924,58
2.287,48
2.259,24
2.408,40
2.507,31
2.742,52
2.725,69
3.000,11
2.886,53
2.967,75
2.988,35
2.496,85
2.389,09
2.895,18
2.923,32
2.925,88
2.480,49
2.768,18
2.369,80
2.425,78
2.884,60
3.061,68
3.152,44
2.850,49
2.759,78
3.332,36
3.455,43
2.858,76
2.217,67
1.844,46
2.236,35
2.655,49
2.761,24
2.847,46
3.181,24
3.160,89
3.169,25
3.236,21
3.140,72
3.225,68
3.256,11
3.255,81
3.471,49
3.699,34
4.503,00
1.038,99
4.656,00
1.052,92
4.977,00
5.069,00
1.103,06
1.101,00
5.148,00
1.096,02
5.421,00
5.682,00
1.131,02
1.161,96
5.993,00
1.201,00
6.292,00
6.420,23
1.235,91
1.235,85
6.199,00
1.163,04
6.173,00
6.854,00
1.128,93
1.221,96
7.434,00
1.291,97
7.391,00
7.588,00
1.252,08
1.252,97
7.797,00
1.254,95
7.999,00
8.206,00
1.254,94
1.254,93
8.420,00
1.255,03
8.637,00
8.859,92
1.255,01
1.254,77
9.707,39
1.340,24
10.580,54
11.357,39
1.423,84
1.489,69
11.768,29
1.504,70
11.665,56
11.594,94
1.474,04
1.447,74
12.243,38
1.510,78
12.930,35
12.660,70
1.576,68
1.525,57
14.079,57
1.676,54
14.824,32
15.055,45
1.744,45
1.750,84
16.037,74
1.842,99
17.020,04
17.385,99
1.904,87
1.895,14
17.681,32
1.877,20
17.713,42
17.790,46
1.831,60
1.791,59
18.991,05
1.862,60
19.883,46
21.681,13
1.899,27
2.017,04
206
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
16.573,86
20.275,70
21.128,93
23.493,61
26.234,87
28.145,44
29.886,19
32.764,05
35.673,29
39.440,91
44.020,75
44.605,92
48.115,11
50.031,22
52.563,89
57.317,25
61.243,62
67.206,09
71.149,07
72.812,29
75.745,53
79.684,82
83.007,74
89.353,59
92.097,69
95.097,67
101.046,46
107.173,49
113.676,39
123.646,92
131.958,63
134.780,38
136.580,37
133.864,51
133.460,39
134.370,97
126.823,37
125.106,32
125.348,15
133.508,75
138.290,57
146.340,97
133.799,72
3.541,88
4.208,76
4.263,64
4.612,28
4.930,56
5.073,05
5.174,92
5.458,53
5.726,49
6.068,39
6.503,02
6.336,83
6.582,97
6.601,37
6.668,99
7.002,91
7.215,57
7.645,19
7.824,11
7.730,30
7.773,09
7.913,03
7.984,90
8.334,37
8.279,38
8.250,43
8.470,63
8.690,90
8.926,76
9.363,14
9.648,15
9.526,15
9.342,12
8.870,36
8.590,13
8.407,78
7.720,42
7.414,87
7.238,23
7.500,09
7.563,31
7.797,43
6.950,17
18.666,39
21.771,98
21.302,50
22.351,78
23.325,95
24.828,27
26.699,14
25.835,30
26.807,12
27.257,82
30.055,90
31.706,11
29.910,36
32.391,54
33.940,66
35.548,98
37.797,87
38.638,90
38.951,22
43.294,73
44.700,33
46.300,69
48.023,45
49.010,95
53.400,00
52.752,16
49.816,50
50.301,96
43.807,84
45.349,10
49.819,92
53.913,82
58.378,78
63.016,92
66.931,66
57.837,01
56.216,40
59.525,04
60.696,66
64.093,38
68.311,24
73.289,66
81.061,94
3.240,15
3.711,88
3.568,80
3.669,74
3.731,00
3.893,03
4.112,13
3.907,25
3.975,39
3.956,81
4.264,20
4.391,56
4.042,03
4.270,28
4.366,30
4.465,25
4.639,28
4.638,29
4.577,14
4.984,45
5.045,81
5.127,64
5.220,44
5.231,43
5.597,31
5.428,56
5.033,68
4.991,99
4.273,29
4.347,03
4.700,08
5.010,66
5.344,66
5.680,41
5.932,45
5.034,95
4.810,23
5.010,89
5.029,55
5.227,42
5.480,24
5.780,40
6.282,90
22.535,02
2.041,96
23.234,82
2.050,37
24.518,87
24.955,00
2.107,34
2.152,84
25.726,00
2.150,10
27.350,00
29.026,00
2.214,44
2.276,62
31.042,00
2.358,46
32.242,00
33.539,00
2.372,76
2.390,64
34.766,00
2.399,97
35.639,00
38.207,00
2.382,56
2.473,47
39.831,00
2.496,81
41.847,00
44.120,00
2.539,86
2.593,79
45.571,00
2.597,23
48.389,00
50.136,00
2.674,90
2.688,81
52.806,00
2.750,06
55.028,00
58.398,00
2.784,25
2.873,68
62.116,00
2.976,45
66.308,00
70.250,00
3.094,22
3.194,26
75.637,00
3.355,25
80.728,00
85.370,00
3.499,38
3.617,68
87.347,00
3.620,60
91.488,00
95.283,00
3.713,29
3.793,26
103.366,00
4.041,68
108.906,00
113.375,00
4.177,12
4.257,26
115.789,00
4.254,60
116.938,00
118.806,00
4.202,47
4.175,22
123.037,00
4.228,66
127.076,00
134.844,00
4.271,75
4.435,66
142.086,00
4.577,22
147.896,00
152.686,00
4.669,47
4.726,10
207
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
142.453,81
156.314,40
165.787,80
166.244,36
162.338,43
168.753,50
168.419,64
179.149,54
179.676,34
168.948,84
175.177,89
181.123,84
165.084,15
152.281,38
180.128,48
198.713,98
218.331,32
236.129,48
247.420,51
México
PIB $1990
miles
7.218,43
7.739,59
8.024,95
7.870,97
7.521,67
7.655,59
7.484,66
7.803,13
7.674,30
7.078,65
7.205,74
7.313,53
6.545,79
5.931,45
6.894,25
7.476,80
8.077,17
8.591,77
8.857,08
84.038,00
90.734,54
101.873,66
109.003,84
117.598,68
127.482,47
136.918,41
145.962,66
150.678,54
149.532,09
156.244,70
161.521,15
165.049,00
171.486,00
181.775,00
191.954,00
200.784,00
210.221,00
216.948,00
Pib Per cápita Argentina
dólares 1990 PIB $1990
miles
6.400,94
6.794,56
7.505,06
7.905,13
8.399,31
8.973,22
9.504,92
9.996,76
10.186,49
9.984,12
10.309,10
10.534,90
10.645,58
10.942,19
11.478,59
12.000,88
12.431,68
12.893,83
13.185,12
Pib Per cápita
dólares 1990
159.042,00
4.825,74
161.587,00
4.805,85
167.889,00
175.444,00
4.892,73
5.010,97
186.496,00
5.222,95
196.567,00
200.695,00
5.399,90
5.410,44
203.706,00
5.391,62
205.132,00
196.722,00
5.332,67
5.025,47
202.230,00
5.078,99
205.204,00
209.163,00
5.068,77
5.083,56
218.784,00
5.233,82
229.067,00
242.124,00
5.395,65
5.617,73
258.831,00
5.917,22
278.243,00
284.921,00
6.269,56
6.329,61
Brasil
PIB $1990
miles
Pib Per cápita
dólares 1990
1783
1784
1785
1786
1787
1788
1789
1790
1791
1792
1793
1794
1795
1796
1797
1798
1799
1800
208
1801
1802
1803
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
1810
1811
1812
1813
1814
1815
1816
1817
1818
1819
1820
1821
1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
1829
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
5.000,00
759,07
2.912,00
646,11
209
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863
1864
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
6.214,00
674,04
2.353,88
1.310,63
4.959,00
685,51
6.985,00
7.154,00
7.327,00
7.504,00
7.686,00
7.872,00
8.062,00
8.257,00
8.457,00
8.662,00
8.871,00
9.086,00
9.306,00
9.531,00
9.761,00
9.998,00
10.240,00
712,97
716,83
720,66
724,46
728,39
732,35
736,19
740,14
744,13
748,14
752,16
756,22
760,29
764,31
768,40
772,58
776,76
210
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
11.860,00
1.011,17
14.337,00
1.132,20
18.585,00
1.365,84
1.466,16
1.347,89
1.482,75
1.492,33
1.629,67
1.594,26
1.669,05
1.649,30
1.680,00
1.693,53
1.706,74
1.718,29
1.731,53
1.744,32
1.757,19
1.770,15
1.783,26
1.796,45
1.809,73
1.823,09
1.835,92
1.850,35
1.884,10
1.825,04
1.908,04
1.991,18
1.874,79
1.856,74
1.757,21
20.167,00
18.741,00
20.840,00
21.203,00
23.407,00
23.147,00
24.495,00
24.469,00
25.195,00
25.403,00
25.584,00
25.740,00
25.921,00
26.095,00
26.270,00
26.446,00
26.624,00
26.803,00
26.983,00
27.164,00
27.346,00
27.994,00
28.953,00
28.487,00
30.250,00
32.064,00
30.664,00
30.846,00
29.653,00
7.265,08
2.151,98
12.931,84
14.036,13
13.745,52
15.721,62
17.407,12
19.702,89
20.690,94
21.126,84
23.190,12
24.352,53
26.125,21
26.590,18
28.769,70
29.060,30
26.038,03
26.183,33
25.427,77
23.364,48
27.665,41
28.682,52
30.774,86
31.559,49
34.058,68
37.836,52
40.771,61
40.597,24
42.544,28
45.566,56
48.414,47
50.623,05
2.755,56
2.880,39
2.716,51
2.992,32
3.191,04
3.478,62
3.518,27
3.459,45
3.657,17
3.698,74
3.821,71
3.746,15
3.903,62
3.797,24
3.302,22
3.243,72
3.091,15
2.790,12
3.247,88
3.307,49
3.473,07
3.471,13
3.635,64
3.897,86
4.055,26
3.919,41
3.994,02
4.155,64
4.291,30
4.367,07
10.487,00
10.741,00
11.001,00
11.267,00
11.232,00
10.865,00
9.474,00
9.695,00
12.519,00
11.616,00
11.712,00
12.300,00
12.347,00
12.201,00
13.425,00
13.425,00
13.693,00
13.961,00
14.365,00
15.735,00
15.754,00
15.639,00
16.886,00
17.078,00
18.959,00
18.747,00
19.188,00
18.844,00
19.688,00
20.263,00
21.664,00
21.223,00
24.024,00
26.393,00
26.944,00
28.801,00
30.454,00
30.434,00
30.556,00
31.210,00
33.476,00
37.333,00
37.415,00
780,86
785,05
789,28
793,51
772,54
729,88
621,57
621,20
783,42
709,94
699,10
717,03
702,97
678,44
729,94
714,78
713,92
712,77
718,14
770,30
755,23
734,12
776,23
768,73
835,68
809,18
810,99
779,93
797,92
804,18
841,91
807,66
895,25
963,11
963,35
1.009,07
1.045,60
1.023,92
1.007,38
1.008,30
1.059,80
1.158,19
1.137,44
211
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
27.787,00
28.720,00
24.417,00
27.191,00
29.031,00
31.183,00
33.671,00
34.786,00
35.356,00
37.248,00
37.767,00
40.851,00
43.754,00
45.387,00
49.094,00
50.623,00
53.967,00
55.807,00
58.114,00
61.303,00
67.368,00
72.578,00
75.481,00
75.688,00
83.258,00
90.307,00
96.502,00
103.812,00
109.333,00
112.599,00
121.723,00
126.365,00
132.039,00
141.839,00
157.312,00
167.116,00
177.427,00
188.258,00
201.669,00
213.924,00
227.970,00
237.480,00
257.636,00
1.617,87
1.643,02
1.372,51
1.501,02
1.573,92
1.660,35
1.768,43
1.795,87
1.794,27
1.858,03
1.851,96
1.949,46
2.032,05
2.051,39
2.159,50
2.133,83
2.210,58
2.221,44
2.247,95
2.304,36
2.365,02
2.477,38
2.503,99
2.439,09
2.605,14
2.742,40
2.842,82
2.964,74
3.025,10
3.016,44
3.155,20
3.172,11
3.210,95
3.342,56
3.593,68
3.701,97
3.812,53
3.922,40
4.072,57
4.185,48
4.319,65
4.364,89
4.601,93
48.530,71
45.159,71
43.677,64
45.711,86
49.344,40
51.523,92
51.872,64
55.650,48
55.882,96
58.004,37
58.963,36
61.985,63
62.712,14
62.218,11
69.279,76
67.042,12
73.028,54
81.136,37
85.640,71
84.478,30
85.524,00
88.866,00
84.333,00
88.866,00
92.528,00
99.125,00
101.856,00
107.087,00
113.655,00
106.303,00
114.614,00
122.809,00
120.833,00
117.927,00
130.074,00
141.960,00
142.919,00
146.755,00
153.002,00
166.080,00
174.972,00
183.458,00
189.183,00
4.079,58
3.711,66
3.521,82
3.621,31
3.844,82
3.950,01
3.911,96
4.125,31
4.071,92
4.147,91
4.161,43
4.303,96
4.284,20
4.182,17
4.578,97
4.356,21
4.665,17
5.089,47
5.251,78
5.047,40
4.986,72
5.073,03
4.717,41
4.874,49
4.979,83
5.237,00
5.285,31
5.460,69
5.697,98
5.241,47
5.559,47
5.861,84
5.677,23
5.455,44
5.926,13
6.370,75
6.320,60
6.398,95
6.577,76
7.037,28
7.301,97
7.529,94
7.634,57
35.187,00
34.401,00
35.599,00
38.374,00
41.585,00
42.722,00
46.824,00
48.355,00
50.376,00
50.876,00
51.381,00
54.981,00
52.944,00
60.317,00
62.562,00
64.236,00
71.013,00
73.523,00
79.157,00
84.239,00
89.342,00
93.608,00
99.181,00
103.957,00
110.836,00
118.960,00
120.674,00
130.717,00
142.577,00
154.538,00
167.397,00
179.951,00
190.932,00
192.912,00
199.423,00
203.444,00
216.181,00
224.877,00
244.921,00
266.292,00
292.480,00
322.159,00
356.880,00
1.048,23
1.004,23
1.018,37
1.075,72
1.142,32
1.149,99
1.235,10
1.249,90
1.275,99
1.262,78
1.249,72
1.306,92
1.229,28
1.367,95
1.385,92
1.389,94
1.500,92
1.517,88
1.596,23
1.659,26
1.671,72
1.702,10
1.752,24
1.784,17
1.847,60
1.925,74
1.896,44
1.994,12
2.111,21
2.221,00
2.334,86
2.437,27
2.510,96
2.463,23
2.472,18
2.448,39
2.526,74
2.553,97
2.704,25
2.859,84
3.056,72
3.278,47
3.537,88
212
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
279.302,00
296.370,00
312.998,00
326.267,00
337.499,00
365.340,00
398.788,00
431.983,00
469.972,00
466.649,00
446.602,00
462.678,00
475.505,00
457.655,00
466.148,00
471.953,00
491.767,00
516.692,00
538.508,00
558.049,00
568.934,00
594.054,00
557.419,00
586.144,00
625.759,00
657.263,00
681.982,00
726.934,00
726.676,00
732.256,00
742.508,00
772.208,00
797.691,00
837.576,00
866.576,00
877.312,00
4.852,59
5.012,78
5.158,34
5.243,77
5.293,27
5.595,14
5.967,57
6.320,39
6.716,84
6.513,72
6.087,57
6.162,46
6.194,11
5.834,28
5.817,94
5.770,88
5.898,83
6.084,91
6.226,39
6.333,47
6.339,16
6.503,92
6.001,47
6.209,25
6.525,45
6.753,28
6.915,47
7.274,68
7.177,26
7.145,36
7.158,91
7.357,19
7.511,01
7.795,06
7.972,11
7.978,80
200.720,00
213.739,00
211.850,00
211.327,00
224.084,00
214.233,00
229.547,00
232.802,00
219.434,00
212.518,00
220.016,00
224.491,00
209.641,00
224.985,00
230.797,00
226.438,00
212.373,00
212.518,00
233.770,00
254.575,00
269.341,00
291.696,00
282.653,00
295.090,00
318.698,00
334.314,00
322.947,00
320.364,00
306.237,00
272.876,00
296.889,00
323.609,00
353.381,00
383.418,00
416.776,00
445.117,00
7.961,97
8.334,08
8.122,50
7.965,20
8.304,38
7.807,25
8.226,91
8.205,98
7.606,56
7.245,76
7.387,05
7.425,85
6.834,93
7.223,79
7.297,93
7.054,36
6.520,11
6.432,92
6.977,38
7.494,77
7.828,09
8.370,76
8.013,07
8.269,76
8.827,71
9.154,77
8.746,50
8.580,57
8.124,29
7.181,14
7.744,39
8.352,92
9.019,19
9.678,85
10.406,65
10.995,43
401.643,00
433.322,00
455.918,00
498.823,00
522.154,00
548.342,00
587.289,00
639.093,00
611.007,00
614.538,00
593.575,00
625.438,00
675.090,00
729.252,00
753.685,00
751.910,00
776.547,00
743.765,00
751.203,00
748.949,00
782.652,00
831.176,00
866.086,00
891.202,00
925.068,00
926.918,00
934.333,00
975.444,00
988.197,00
1.007.295,00
1.018.375,00
1.076.423,00
1.110.868,00
1.155.303,00
1.201.514,00
1.262.279,00
3.880,12
4.080,94
4.187,38
4.469,62
4.565,36
4.678,41
4.889,96
5.195,03
4.849,57
4.762,83
4.498,14
4.643,23
4.913,96
5.201,66
5.269,53
5.154,55
5.223,68
4.920,06
4.891,15
4.799,97
4.937,49
5.162,04
5.295,74
5.365,91
5.485,49
5.414,21
5.377,02
5.532,24
5.524,67
5.552,34
5.535,85
5.772,05
5.877,83
6.033,89
6.195,96
6.428,95
Fuente ; Venezuela calculos propios y otros paises Angus Maddison web page.
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