peru indc

PERU´S INDC AND THE WAY FORWARD
CCAP LAC Regional Dialogue, February 10-12,2016
Maria Paz Cigarán
10/02/2016
AGENDA
1. INDC Process: What and how we did it
2. The Challenges ahead
3. Sharing our approach: Gestión CC
4. Some final thoughts
1
INDC PROCESS: WHAT AND HOW WE
DID IT
PERU INDC: TECHNICAL PROCESS (2012- 2015)
2012
2013
2014
PlanCC:
Inventario GEI 2009,
77MM, 5 escenarios
2015
2016
Julio – Sep
6 reuniones con
sectores:
comentarios a
BAU y MM
Oct – Dic
17 reuniones:
modificaciónes
a BAU y MM
Nov
Evaluación cumplimiento
de compromiso al 2021.
Escenarios alternativos
PLANCC Project (2012-2014),
identified NAMAs and sectoral
initiatives were the inputs for the
development of the INDC
Ene– 10 Abri
22 reuniones:
BAU y MM
Abri – May
19 reuniones:
Equipo de
investigación
PERU: INDC MULTISECTORAL COMMISSION
Multisectoral Commission
(Supreme Resolution No 129-2015-PCM )
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Presidency of the Ministers Council
Ministry of Environment
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Ministry of Economy and Finance
Ministry of Energy and Mines
Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation
Ministry of Transport and Communications
Ministry of Production
Ministry of Construction, Housing and
Sanitation
Ministry of Education
Ministry of Justice and Human Rights
Ministry of Health
Ministry of Culture
Ministry of Development and Social Inclusion
•
The temporary Multisectoral
Comission had the mandate to
develop and approve the
technical report of the iNDC.
•
It was formed by Ministers or
Deputy Ministers.
•
Ministry of Environment
assume the role of Technical
Secretariat.
PERU: INDC PUBLIC CONSULTATION
Stakeholders
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Public Consultation
6 weeks ( Jun 5th- Jul
17th)
Private sector
Indigenous people
NGOs
Civil Society
Government agenci
Subnational goverments
Academy institutions
Activities
• Dissemination Meetings
•
21 meetings, 278 participants
• Macro-regional workshops
•
5 workshops, 25 regions, 440 participants
• Web portal and mail submissions
•
~100 comments
PERU: SUBMITTED INDC
Item
Description
Scope
National
Mitigation target
and type
Emission reduction equivalent to 30% relative to GHG emissions
of the projected BAU scenario in 2030.
Conditional and
Non-conditional
committments
20% of the emission reduction will be implemented through
domestic investment and expenses, and the remaining 10% is
subject to the availability of international financing and the
existence of favorable conditions.
Baseline
Projected BAU scenario (including LULUCF) from 170.6 MtCO2eq
in 2010 to 298.3 MtCO2eq in 2030.
Methodologies
1996 IPCC Guidelines
2003 IPCC Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF
Considered GHG
Carbon dioxide CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)
Global Warming
Potentials
IPCC SAR values (CH4:21, N2O:310)
PERU: INDC EMISSIONS REDUCTION IN 2030
BAU
Non-conditional
INDC
INDC
PERU: MITIGATION EFFORT DISTRIBUTION
Source: MINAM
The INDC estimates to reduce 89 MtCO2eq in 2030. Two thirds of the total
mitigation would be from LULUCF sector. 76 mitigation options were developed.
MITIGATION OPTIONS: ENERGY
MITIGATION OPTIONS: LULUCF
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF INDC
1. Financial evaluation of selected 10 model projects based on
the iNDC
2. Private sector approach
3. Energy, Forestry and Waste
N°
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Sector
Energía
Energía
Energía
Energía
Forestal
Forestal
Forestal
Forestal
Residuos
Residuos
Nombre
Reemplazo de motores (bombas, ventiladores, compresoras de aire y fajas transportadoras)
Reemplazo de calderas
Cogeneración de electricidad y calor en la industria
Reemplazo de lámparas fluorescentes en los sector comercial, industrial y servicios
Reforestación comercial con altos insumos
Implementación de sistemas agroforestales (café + maderables)
Manejo forestal sostenible en concesiones
Manejo sostenible de bosques para castañas
Segregación de residuos inorgánicos y reciclaje
Construcción de rellenos sanitarios con captura, quema de metano y generación eléctrica
Present Value of future cash flows / Investment
1.5
1.0
0.5
-0.5
2.0
0.0
0.04
0.3
Energía
0.4
0.4
Residuos
0.6
Forestal
Reemplazo de
calderas
Cogeneración de
electricidad y calor
Profitability Index
Manejo sostenible de bosques para
castañas
Manejo sostenible en concesiones
forestales maderables
Reemplazo de motores
Implementación de sistemas
agroforestales (café + maderables)
Reemplazo de lámparas fluorescentes
en el sector comercial
Reforestación comercial con altos
rendimientos de los insumos
Construcción de rrss con captura y quema de
metano y generación eléctrica
Segregación y reciclaje de residuos
sólidos inórganicos
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF INDC: RESULTS
𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒇𝒊𝒕𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒙 =
𝑬𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒄 𝑵𝑷𝑽
𝑰𝒏𝒗𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕
2.5
1.7
1.4
0.7
0.1
-0.2
Inversión
Elaborado por Intelfin
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SELECTED SCENARIOS
Mitigation scenarios (previous to final INDC)
280
Escenario BAU
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
2010
2012
Costo 0
Costo 0
Sectors
Energy
Transport
Industrial P.
Agriculture
LULUCF
waste
Total
Number of
measures
14
2
7
3
7
2
35
2014
2016
Cobeneficios
2018
MtCO2e
4.5
1.4
4.3
0.3
21.5
0.2
32.2
Sectors
Energy
Transport
Industrial P.
Agriculture
LULUCF
Waste
Total
Number of
measures
11
8
3
8
11
8
49
2022
2024
Sin Cooperación Internacional
2026
2028
Reductions
MtCO2e
3.1
2.1
2.0
3.7
50.9
2.6
64.4
Number of
Sectors
Energy
Transport
Industrial P.
Agriculture
LULUCF
Waste
Total
2030
Escenario 3 ampliado
Sin Cooperación Internacional
Cobeneficios
Reductions
2020
measures
22
7
8
7
8
5
57
Reductions
MtCO2e
4.4
3.2
5.2
3.9
25.0
0.3
42.0
Escenario 3 Ampliado
Number of
Sectors
Energy
Transport
Industrial P.
Agriculture
LULUCF
Waste
Total
measures
24
10
8
10
11
8
71
Reductions
MtCO2e
5.8
3.4
5.2
4.2
50.9
2.6
72.0
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SELECTED SCENARIOS: RESULTS
Peru’ s Gross Domestic Product
GDP growth (% of average annual growth)
Period
Costo 0
Cobeneficios
2021
2025
2030
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
-0.7%
-0.9%
-1.0%
Sin
Cooperación
Internacional
-0.2%
-0.5%
-0.6%
Escenario 3
ampliado
-0.6%
-0.8%
-0.8%
2
THE CHALLENGES AHEAD
CHALLENGES AHEAD
1. Goals into action:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Dissemination, prioritization, the responsible one.
Who does what: Management models, new coallitions and partnerships
Policies and Instruments
Capacity
Finance: Sources and Structuring
Tech
Info and MRV
2. Maintain momentum, pressure from diversity of stakeholders: Others
now, private sectors and innovation
3. Pragmatic, in line with needs, new ways of doing things, fast and taking
risks.
4. Peru: a different scale, a different animal.
3
THE CURRENT APPROACH: POLICIES
INTO ACTION
Climate action needs the
right conditions for action
Gestion
CC
¿Why GestiónCC?
GestiónCC responds to the need for clear
and efficient institutional arrangements
to:
Move from CC planning to CC action, in a
transformative way which meets both its
international commitments and the National
Climate Change Strategy.
Involve public and private key actors and
different levels of goverments in the context
of a low-carbon development and climate
resilient
Optimize financial flows from various sources
such as public sector, international
Expected results
1
A
managment
model
tested
2
Influence
in
critical
processes
3
An ongoing
process with Create a critical mass / transformative
strengthened community in which transformative climate
change actions are an intrinsic component
actors
of sustainable development.
Propose and test of CC management models to set
institutional and financial arrangements for the implementation
of the ENCC and the iNDCs.
Insert climate change action within decision-making processes
as part of the formulation, financing and implementation of
public and private programs and projects.
.
Organigrama de GestiónCC
MINAM (3)
Steering
Committe (3)
Implemented
Unit
General
Coordination
(1 )
Technical
Assistance
)
Academy, public and private
sector representatives
Donors Committee ( 2 )
Administration
( 1 )
Institutional
arrangements
( 1 )
Advisory Committee ( 2
Legal Affairs and
logistic ( 1 )
Pilot
interventions
include Project
certification (
1 )
( 1 ) Implemented Unit
( 2 ) External advisor
( 3 ) Multisectorial Public Director
Financial
Mechanisms
( 1 )
Knolewdge
managment and
diffussion
( 1 )
The Climate Agenda
ENCC: 2 interventions
approaches
Make climate
change
action
transversal
within the
context of
national
development
Insert
climate
change
consideratio
ns into
investment
policy in
PUBLIC POLICIES
PROGRAMMES
PROJECTS
INVESTMENTS
From
planning
to
actions
Actions
and
specific
goals
identified
from the
climate
agenda:
iNDC
National Contribution
–
Forestry
Sector
Forest
1
Peru´s
Sustainable (iNDC)
Forest Management
Proposal
in Forest Concessions
6.112
Forest 2
6.046
Forest 3
Reorganization of Permanent Forest Production and MFS
Forest Conservation and Conditional Direct Transfers
5.231
Forest 4
Community Forest Management
0.691
Forest 5
Consolidation of Protected Natural Areas
1.553
Forest 6
Monitoring, control, surveillance and appropriate
land management
(Enabling conditiones )
24.495
Forest 7
Commercial Reforestation with High Yield Inputs
7.686
Forest 8
Technology
Forest 9
0.357
Enabling
Conditions
Community
Reforestation
with Medium Level
- Proper land use
managmement
Agroforestry
System
for Coffee
- Control
& surveillance
- Monitoring
2.673
(NAMA)
Intervention Proposal
For planning to actions
Design of public
policies and
investment projects
Enabling Conditions
- Appropriate land use
management
- Control &
Leadership
surveillance
Conditions for
& Direction
- Monitoring
climate action
(abilities/skills)
Proposal of a
management model and intersectorial
(condiciones)
implementation
)
Institutions - Capacities Rules
Informaction- Infrastructure
Stakeholders
IMPLEMENTATION
Finance
Cooperation
Intervention Proposal
Integrate climate action into the national
development context
Technical
Assistance:
Development
Priorities of the
• Capacities
• Information
• Sources of
Finance
• Public
private
Alliances
Instruments
for
people integration
(transversalit
y)
Project
Climate Opportunities
Mitigation
Adaptation
Evaluation
Climate Action Seal
LUP
EAE
Participation
Agreed
Development
Plan
REGIONAL
INTERVENTION
4
FINAL THOUGHTS
FINAL THOUGHTS
1. Pradigm shift
2. Two processes needed:
– A new BAU and the Transformational Path (the ambition, what science tells us)
3. Small scale is the big scale: (programatic)
–
–
–
–
–
90% PYMES and jobs by entreprenuers
Near people needs, perceived
Consumer – Prosumer
Circular economy
On territory
4. The 80/20 rule: For innovation, we need to take risks!
–
–
–
–
Faster
More ambition
Easier /Collaboration at a larger scale
Others (non experts, more innovation, entreprenuers, new coallitions)