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FEWS NET
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
Global Weather Hazards Summary
August 15-21, 2014
Severe dryness persists in Latin America and Haiti, with flooding in Sudan and South Sudan
Africa Weather Hazards
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Seasonally Dry
3
7
4
1
1. Since early June,
seasonal rainfall has
been below average and
infrequent across northeastern
Nigeria, leading to growing moisture deficits. While
there is a chance for some relief with increased rainfall
forecast during the upcoming outlook period, abnormally
dry ground conditions are expected to persist, which still
may negatively impact developing crops later into the season.
5
6
2
2. Although much of western Ethiopia has received favorable
amounts of rainfall during the last two months and rainfall
has recently increased in eastern Ethiopia, poorly distributed
rain in parts of eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and northern
Oromia have been consistently below average since June.
3. A poor start to seasonal rainfall across much of Senegal has led
to poor ground conditions and increasing early season rainfall
deficits since June. Little rain is forecast for the next week, with
increasing rainfall deficits potentially hurting cropping activities.
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
4. A delayed start of seasonal rains has hurt cropping activities along
the Mauritania-Mali border. Light to moderate rains are forecast in
southern Mauritania next week, which could maintain moisture deficits over local areas.
5. Heavy rains during the past two weeks in the Darfur and Kordofan regions of Sudan caused flooding that destroyed shelters and
flooded producing areas. Moderate to heavy rain forecast for next week are likely to cause additional flooding.
6. Heavy rains during the past two weeks have caused flooding that displaced people across Unity State in South Sudan. The
moderate rains forecast for next week may worsen the situation.
7. Heavy downpours during the past two weeks have caused flooding, infrastructure damage, injuries, and have displaced people
across the Khartoum, River Nile, and Al Gazeira States of Sudan. Flooding remains likely as heavy rains are forecast to continue.
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International Development or the United States Government.The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by
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concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected], [email protected], or 1-301-683-3424.
Weather Hazards Summary
August 15-21, 2014
Latin America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards
1. Most of Hispaniola remained drier than
average over the past several weeks,
particularly in southern parts of Haiti and
the Dominican Republic, where agriculture
has already been affected by the dryness.
Low dam levels near Santo Domingo have led
to water restrictions and occasional power
outages.
1
1
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
3
No Hazards2
Posted for
2. Long dry spells and below-average rain since March
Central America
have led to substantial seasonal rainfall deficits and poor ground
conditions in southeastern Honduras, west-central Nicaragua, and
parts of northern Costa Rica. Poorly distributed Primera rainfall and acute
dryness during mid-June has also caused crop failure in eastern El Salvador,
southern Honduras, and eastern Guatemala.
3. Below-average and poorly distributed rainfall since late June across central
Guatemala, southern Honduras, El Salvador, and western Nicaragua is likely to
negatively impact development of Primera crops.
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
Central Asia Weather Hazards
1. Below-average precipitation since May has resulted
in drought conditions across parts of northwest
Kazakhstan.
2. Poorly distributed rainfall since May has led to
growing moisture deficits and low soil moisture in
northeastern and southeastern Kazakhstan.
Temperatures
During early August, temperatures averaged close
to normal except for western Kazakhstan where
temperatures averaged as much as 5°C above normal
and maximum temperatures reached the mid-30s.
During the next week, above-normal temperatures are
likely to continue across northwestern Kazakhstan and
to intensify drought conditions.
2
1
2
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Precipitation
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
Dry weather returned to Central Asia with only isolated
areas of northern Kazakhstan receiving more than 10
mm of rainfall. During the next week, dry weather is forecast to continue throughout most of Central Asia. However, the latest
GFS model indicates scattered showers with locally heavy amounts of more than 25 mm across north-central Kazakhstan. The
heaviest monsoon rainfall is expected to remain generally east of Afghanistan.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
2
Weather Hazards Summary
se in rainfall expected to continue in West Africa.
Africa
Satellite Estimated RainfallAugust
(mm)
Valid: August 5 – August 11, 2014
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm)
Valid:
August
5 – August
11,(mm)
2014
Satellite
Estimated
Rainfall
Figure 1: Satellite-Estimated
Rainfall (mm)
Valid:
Valid: August 5-11,
2014 August 5 – August 11, 2014
15-21, 2014
ase
in in
rainfall
to continue
in West
ease
rainfallexpected
was observed
in West
AfricaAfrica.
as moderate to
rains
spread
throughout
the
Sahel
and
many
parts
of the
Increased
rainfall
toin
continue
West
Africa
se in rainfall
expected
to expected
continue
West in
Africa.
crease
in rainfall
was (Figure
observed
West
Africa (>
as50
moderate
to
during the
past week
1).inThe
heaviest
mm) rains
An
increase
in
rainfall
was
observed
in
West
Africa
as
moderate
yrease
rains
spread
throughout
the
Sahel
and
many
parts
of
the
ecorded
over localized
areasinofWest
Guinea
Guineain rainfall
was observed
AfricaBissau,
as moderate
to
to
heavy
rains(Figure
spread
the Sahel
and
many
parts
ny,
during
the
past
week
1).
TheModerate
heaviest
(>
50
mm)of
rains
Mali,spread
Burkina
Faso,
and
Chad.
to
heavy
rains
rains
throughout
thethroughout
Sahel
and
many
parts
theof
theover
region
during
the
past
week
(Figure
1).Bissau,
The50
heaviest
rain
recorded
localized
areas
of and
Guinea
Guinealso
recorded
northern
Senegal
southern
Mauritania,
during
the over
past
week
(Figure
1). The
heaviest
(>
mm)
rains
(>50
mm)
fell
over
localized
areas
of
Guinea-Bissau,
Guinea,
kry,
Mali,
Burkina
Faso,
and
Chad.
Moderate
to
heavy
rains
helped
to erode
accumulated
deficits
associated
with Guineadelayed
recorded
over localized
areas
of Guinea
Bissau,
Mali,
Burkina
Faso,
and
Chad.
Moderate
to heavy
rains
also
fell
alsoseasonal
recorded
over
northern
Senegal
and
Mauritania,
of
rains.
Enhanced
rains
alsosouthern
fell
Nigeria,
ry,
Mali,
Burkina
Faso,
and
Chad.
Moderate
toover
heavy
rains
over
northern
Senegal
and
southern
Mauritania,
which
helped
helped
to
erode
accumulated
deficits
associated
with
delayed
ng the
northeastern
region,Senegal
which had
received Mauritania,
poor rains
also
recorded
over northern
and southern
to erase
rainfall
deficitsdeficits
associated
with the
delayed
onset of
of seasonal
rains.
rains
also
felltypical
over
Nigeria,
early
period
ofaccumulated
theEnhanced
season.
In contrast,
little
to
helped
to erode
associated
with delayed
seasonal
rains.
ing
the
northeastern
region,
which
had
received
poor
rains
ssed
rains were
registered
along rains
the Gulf
of Guinea
region.
of seasonal
rains.
Enhanced
also
fell over
Nigeria,
gngearly
period of theregion,
season.
In had
contrast,
typical
to
the northeastern
which
received
poorlittle
rains
Increased
rains also along
fell over
Nigeria,
including
theregion.
northeastern
essed
rains
were
registered
the
Gulf
of
Guinea
period
of the
the past
season.
contrast,
typical little
to
l early
anomalies
over
thirty In
days
have indicated
aboveregion that received poor rains early in the season. By contrast,
essed
rains
were
registered
along the
Gulf of Guinea
region.
e rains,
with
positive
anomalies
exceeding
50
mm
over
the
normally
amounts
of rainfall
were registered
along the Gulf
allparts
anomalies
over low
the
past
thirty
days
indicated
of the
Sahel.
This
included
Mali,have
Burkina
Faso, aboveNiger,
of
Guinea
region.
ge
rains,Chad
withover
positive
anomalies
exceeding
50 mmflow
over
the
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
llestern
anomalies
the past
days
have
indicated
above(Figure
2). thirty
Enhanced
southerly
and
al
parts
of
the
Sahel.
This
included
Mali,
Burkina
Faso,
Niger,
ge
with
positive
anomalies
exceeding
50
mm
over
the
atedrains,
low-level
moisture
convergence
have
brought
moisture
West Africa
has received
above-average
rainfall over
the past
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
western
Chad
(Figure
2).
Enhanced
southerly
flow
and
parts
Sahel.
included
Mali,
Burkina
Faso,
Niger,
Satellite Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
es
as offarthe
north
as This
northeastern
Mali.
In(Mali,
contrast,
belowmonth,
with
central
parts
of
the
Sahel
Burkina
Faso,
Niger
iated
low-level
moisture
convergence
have
brought
moisture
Valid: July 13 – August 11, 2014Source: NOAA/CPC
Figure
1:
NOAA/CPC
western
Chad
(Figure
2).
Enhanced
southerly
flow
and
e rains were
observed
over
the
westernmost
portions
of
West
and
western
Chad)
receiving 50Mali.
mm more
than normalbelow(Figure
Satellite
Estimated
Rainfall
Anomaly
uses
as
far
north
as
northeastern
In
contrast,
Figure
2:
Satellite-Estimated
Rainfall
Anomaly
(mm) (mm)
ated
low-level
moisture
convergence
brought
moisture
including
western
Senegal,
localized
southern
2).
Inobserved
contrast,
below-average
rainhave
fellareas
over
theof
westernmost
Valid:
July 13 – August 11, 2014
- August
11, 2014
ge rains were
over the westernmost
portions
of West Valid: July 13Satellite
Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
ses as
as
northeastern
Mali.
contrast,
belowania,
andfarthenorth
Gulf of
ofWest
Guinea
InIn northern
Senegal
Africa,countries.
including
western
Senegal,
localized
, includingportions
western
Senegal,
localized
areas
of southern
Valid: July 13 – August 11, 2014
ge rains Mauritania,
were
observed
over
the
westernmost
portions
of
West
outhern
crop
conditions
and
moisture
availability
of southern
Mauritania,
and theInGulf
of GuineaSenegal
countries.
tania, and areas
the Gulf
of Guinea
countries.
northern
including
Senegal,
localized
areas of
southern
een
negatively
impacted
andand
may
further
degrade
if good
rains
Inwestern
northern
Senegal
southern
Mauritania,
conditions
southern Mauritania,
crop conditions
and
moisturecrop
availability
ania, and the
Gulf
of
Guinea
countries.
In
northern
Senegal
eturn.
and moisture
availability
have
been negatively
and
been negatively
impacted
and may
further
degrade impacted
if good rains
outhern Mauritania,
conditions
moisture availability
may worsencrop
if good
rains fail toand
return.
return.
een
negatively
impacted
and may
further degrade
if goodacross
rains
xt
week,
an increase
in rainfall
is expected
to continue
eturn.
For
next
week,
an
increase
in
rainfall
is
expected
to
continue
of
West
Africa.
Moderate
to
heavy
rains
are
forecast
from
ext week, an increase in rainfall is expected to continue across
across
much
of
West
Africa.
Moderate
to
heavy
rains
are
Senegal,
southern
Mauritania,
Guinea
Conakry,
Mali,
Burkina
of West Africa. Moderate to heavy rains are forecast from
xt week,
increase
inNigeria
rainfall
is expected
toMauritania,
continue
across
from
central
Senegal,
southern
Guinea,
This
is Mali,
likely Burkina
to
help
Niger,an
toforecast
northern
and
Chad.
alndSenegal,
southern
Mauritania,
Guinea
Conakry,
of
West Africa.
Moderate
to many
heavy
rains
are and
forecast
from
Mali,
Burkina
Faso,
Niger,
northern
Nigeria,
Chad.
This
n
adequate
soil
moisture
over
local
areas
for
the
current
and Niger, to northern Nigeria and Chad. This is likely to help
southern
Mauritania,
Guinea
Conakry,
Mali,
Burkina
islight
likely
to maintain
adequate
moisture
over
many
local
. Senegal,
However,
mm)over
rains
aresoil
forecast
over
ain
adequate
soil (<20
moisture
many
local
areas
forfar
thewestern
current
This
israins
likely
tomm)
help
and
Niger,
to
northern
Nigeria
and
Chad.
areas
for
the
current
season.
However,
light
(<20
are
Africa,
including
northern
Senegal,
western
Mali,
and
along
the
on. However, light (<20 mm) rains are forecast over far western
in
adequate
soil
moisture
over
many
local
areas
for
the
current
forecast
over
northern
Senegal,
western
Mali,
and
along
the
areas
of
the
Gulf
of
Guinea.
Africa, including northern Senegal, western Mali, and along the
n.
However,
light
(<20
mm)
forecast over far western
coastal
areas
of
the rains
Gulf ofare
Guinea.
al areas
of the
Gulf
of Guinea.
Africa, including northern Senegal, western Mali, and along the
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
l areas of the
Gulfrains
of Guinea.
Heavy
caused flood in many areas of Sudan
Source: NOAA/CPC
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
rains caused flooding over many areas of Sudan.
Satellite Estimated
Rainfall (mm)
Figure 3. Satellite-Estimated
Rainfall (mm)
During the past week, heavy rains resulted in flooding over
Figure
2: 5-11,
NOAA/CPC
Valid:
5 – August
2014
y rains caused
many
areas
of Sudan.
Valid: August
2014 August
Satellite
Estimated
Rainfall11,
(mm)
manyflooding
parts of theover
Darfur
region
of western
Sudan, causing
the past week,
heavy
rains
resulted
in
flooding
over
many
Valid:
August
5
–
August
11,
2014
infrastructure
damage
and washing
out
cultivation
land. Heavy
caused
flooding
over
many
areas
of
Sudan.
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm)
the Darfur
region
of western
Sudan,
causing
infrastructure
gfrains
past
week,
rains
resulted
in
flooding
overin many
rains
alsoheavy
resulted
in fatalities
and destroyed
houses
South
Valid: August 5 – August 11, 2014
es,
washed
out
cultivation
land,
and
affected
people.
Farther
of the
Darfur
region
of
western
Sudan,
causing
infrastructure
Kordofan.
To therains
northeast,
downpours
destroyed
houses
the washed
past
heavy
resulted
inhouses,
flooding
over
many
eavy
rains week,
also
left
fatalities,
destroyed
and
affected
ges,
out
cultivation
land,
and
affected
people.
Farther
and
displaced
people
in
the
Khartoum
and
Gazeira
regions.
of
the
Darfur
region
of
western
Sudan,
causing
infrastructure
nts
in South
Kordofan.
To the northeast,
downpours
resulted
in
heavy
rainsMeanwhile,
also left fatalities,
destroyed
houses,
and
affected
seasonally
heavy
rains
fell
overpeople.
western
Ethiopia
ges,
washed
out
cultivation
land,
and
affected
Farther
yed in
houses
and
displaced
people
over
the
Khartoum
and
ents
South
Kordofan.
To
the
northeast,
downpours
resulted
in
and
western
South Sudan,
with moderate
rainsand
wereaffected
observed
heavy
rainsMeanwhile,
also
leftdisplaced
fatalities,
destroyed
houses,
oyed
houses
and
people
over
the
Khartoum
and
a regions.
seasonal,
heavy
rains
fell
over
western
elsewhere
(Figure
3). The
continuation
of increased
rain over
nts
in South
Kordofan.
To
the
northeast,
downpours
resulted
in
regions.
Meanwhile,
seasonal,
heavy
rains
fell
over
western
ara and
western
South
Sudan,
whereas
moderate
rains
were
western
Ethiopia
increases
the
risks
for
the
overflowing
ofand
rivers
yed
houses
and
displaced
people
over
the
Khartoum
pia
and western
South3).
Sudan,
whereas
moderate
rainsnext
were
ed elsewhere
(Figure
The
of enhanced
rains
along
downstream
areascontinuation
ofheavy
easternrains
Sudan.
During
a regions.
Meanwhile,
seasonal,
fell
overthe
western
ved
elsewhere
(Figure
3).
The
continuation
of
enhanced
rains
estern
Ethiopia
increases
the
risks
for
the
overflowing
of
rivers
week, South
heavy rains
are forecast
to continue
in western
Ethiopia,
ia and western
Sudan,
whereas
moderate
rains
were
western
Ethiopia
increases
the southern
risks
forSudan.
the
overflowing
ofheavy
rivers
downstream
areas
of
eastern
Sudan.
During
the next
week,
the
Darfur
region,
and
Moderate
to
ed
elsewhere
(Figure
3).
The
continuation
of
enhanced
rains
downstream
areastoofcontinue
eastern inSudan.
During
the next
week,
rains
are forecast
Ethiopia,
theofDarfur
rains are
also expected
overwestern
the
western
two-thirds
South
Ethiopia
increases
the risks
for
the
overflowing
of Darfur
rivers
yestern
rains
are
forecast
to continue
in western
Ethiopia,
the
and southern
Sudan.
Moderate
to
heavy
rains
are
also
Sudan.
As
a
result,
there
is
a
high
chance
for
new
flooding
and
downstream
areasSudan.
oftwo-thirds
eastern
Sudan.
the
next
week,
n,
and
Moderate
to During
heavy
rains
are
also
ed
over southern
theworsening
western
of
South
Sudan.
As
a
result,
ground
conditions
across
many
flood-prone
areas.
rains
arechance
forecast
continue
in ofwestern
Ethiopia,
the
Darfur
over
the
western
two-thirds
South
Sudan. As
result,
sted
a high
forto
new
flooding
and
exacerbation
ofaground
Light (<20
mm)
rains
are expected
elsewhere.
,ons
and
southern
Sudan.
Moderate
to
heavy
rains
are
also
is aacross
high chance
for new flooding
exacerbation
ground
many flood-prone
areas.and
Light
(< 20 mm)of
rains
are
Source: NOAA/CPC
ed
over
the
western
two-thirds
of
South
Sudan.
As
a
result,
Figure 3: NOAA/CPC
ions
across many flood-prone areas. Light (< 20 mm) rains are
ed
elsewhere.
Figure 3: NOAA/CPC
sted
a elsewhere.
high chance for new flooding and exacerbation of ground
Famine
Warningareas.
Systems
Network
3
ons across
manyEarly
flood-prone
Light
(< 20 mm) rains are
Figure 3:
The
hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information
and NOAA/CPC
short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1
ed elsewhere.
hazardstheir
outlook
map on
page on
1 iscrop
based
onpasture
current conditions.
weather/climate
information
and
andinmedium
rangeanomalous
weather forecasts
(up to
1
ItThe
assesses
potential
impact
and
Shaded
polygons
areshort
added
areas where
conditions
have
). It assesses
potentialof
impact
crop andare
pasture
Shaded
are added
areas
where does
anomalous
conditions
observed.
Thetheir
boundaries
theseon
polygons
only conditions.
approximate
at thispolygons
continental
scale. in
This
product
not reflect
long have
range
affected several regions in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. However, b
rainfall anomalies since the beginning of May show large moisture deficits ranging between 10 to 50
CentralWeather
America,
withSummary
the greatest dryness affecting the Gulf of Fonseca region. August
Much15-21
of this
Hazards
2014dryness
developed over west-central Nicaragua and Honduras, and has already resulted in failed and wilted cro
Latin America and the Caribbean
Abnormal
dryness worsens
areasforecasts
in Central America
During the
next seven
days,throughout
model many
rainfall
indicate a continuation of above-average in rainfall
he upcoming
week.
amounts
in excess
of America,
50mmproviding
are expected
tomany
be areas
favorable
During the
last week,Precipitation
an increase in rain was
observed throughout
Central
some relief for
that have for many
experienced
abnormal
dryness
this
summer.
The
highest
rainfall
amounts
(>75
mm)
were
received
across
parts
of
El
Salvador
and
southern Honduras, and western Nicaragua; however, several consecutive weeks of above-average
ra
southern Honduras, with lighter, but favorable amounts throughout many areas in Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Following a
eliminate very
seasonal
moisture
poor July, increased
rains deficits.
since the beginning of August are offsetting both short-term and long-term moisture deficits in several
regions of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. However, local rain gauges and satellite estimates of rainfall
since early May show large moisture deficits ranging between 10-50 percent of normal across the Pacific side of Central America,
Total
Forecast
(mm)
with the greatest dryness affecting the Gulf of Fonseca region. MuchSeven-Day
of this dryness is in
additionRainfall
to the drought
conditions that
have
developed over west-central Nicaragua and Honduras, and whcih have already
resulted in 11
failed–and
wilted crops
over2014
many local areas.
August
August
18,
For next week, forecasts indicate continued aboveFigure 1: Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm)
Valid: August 11-18, 2014
average rainfall along the Pacific side of Central America.
Precipitation in excess of 50 mm is expected to be favorable
for southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras,
and western Nicaragua. However, several consecutive weeks
of above-average rainfall are most likely needed in order to
fully eliminate seasonal moisture deficits.
Rainfall deficits persist despite recent rainfall
During the last week, increased amounts of rain fell
throughout Hispaniola, with the highest amounts in central
and northern Haiti and western Dominican Republic. Since
the beginning of August, seasonal precipitation has generally
been above average throughout central and northern
Hispaniola, and average to slightly below average in the
south. Despite recently improved rainfall, many local areas’
total rainfall continues to be 50 to 80 percent of normal
throughout both the Dominican Republic and Haiti, with
deeper moisture deficits (<50 percent of normal) confined to
the southern coastline. This prolonged dryness is expected
to continue to negatively affect local water resources and
cropping activities. Next week, rainfall forecasts suggest
continued moderate to locally heavy rains over Hispaniola,
with the highest amounts expected over southern Haiti
and western Dominican Republic. These rains forecast are
expected to help alleviate dryness in many areas.
Source: NOAA/CPC
Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected] or 1-301-683-3424.
ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDS
Hazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and
pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at
this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
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