Lisandro Bucciarelli, Fernando Losano, Marta Marizza, Pablo Cello

A water resources management model to evaluate
climate change impacts in northern Patagonia, Argentina
AGU
H13A-1042
Lisandro Bucciarelli, Fernando Losano, Marta Marizza, Pablo Cello, Laura Forni, Charles A Young, Leonidas
O. Girardin, Gustavo Nadal, Francisco Lallana, Silvana Godoy and Ricardo Vallejos.
Universidad Nacional del Comahue, Neuquén. Argentina. Contact: [email protected]
20052006
20062007
20072008
20082009
20092010
20102011
nmax
Piedra del Aguila
II. Objectives
Most recently developed climate scenarios indicate a potential future
increase in water stress in the Comahue region, located in northern
Patagonia, Argentina. This region covers about 140,000 km2 where the
Limay and the Neuquén Rivers converge into the Negro River,
constituting the largest integrated basin in Argentina.
Annual
precipitation
decreases from
3000 mm in the
west to 200 mm
towards the east.
590
This work presents the results of a hydrological simulation of the basins of
the Limay and Neuquén Rivers using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning
system) considering the operation of artificial reservoirs located
downstream at a monthly time step. This study aims to support policy
makers via integrated tools for water-energy planning under climate
uncertainties, and to facilitate the formulation of water policy–related
actions for future water stress adaptation.
Storage Elevation [m]
I. Problem description
595
585
580
575
570
A
u
g
S
e
p
O
c
t
N
o
v
D
e
c
J
a
n
F
e
b
M
a
r
A
p
r
M
a
y
J
u
n
J
u
l
Management rules for alternative B
Three different hydro-energetic alternatives were simulated:
A) Using the same seasonal management rules for all
years of the simulation period and the real monthly
electric demand for the same period.
B) Using modified management rules from 2008 onward
whereby hydropower systems are operated with higher
water levels in the reservoir to improve energy
generation.
C) Maximizing the generation of electricity based on the
hydrologic year type (dry, medium, wet) and
the monthly
Paso de los Indios
energy price.
Collon Desembocadura
IV. Results
Streamflow (below node or reach listed)
Scenario: Reference, All months (12), River: Collón
45 \ Estación_Collón
46 \ Reach
4.0
Hydrologic component
Calibration performance
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
Model conceptualization:
Two modeling components from the sources to the junction of the Limay and Neuquén
Rivers: I) Hydrologic component for active basins (water availability) ; II) Energy
requirement component
Rahueco
Bajada de
Agrio
Paso de los
Indios
Rahue
Huechahue
Hydrologic
Component
AREA (Km2)
3579
4566
7366
PASO DE
LOS
INDIOS
0.75
0.75
0.88
0.85
R2
0.76
0.81
0.88
0.87
2.8
2.6
Collon
Outlet
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
Relative bias
-0.0067
-0.04
0.01
0.09
0.8
0.6
MSE/Ob_SD (%) *
Ln Nash
49
49
35
41
Paso de los Indios
0.4
0.2
0.87
0.67
0.94
0.0
Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov
2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010
0.85
mean square error; Ob_SD: Observed discharge standard deviation
Energy requirement component
Calibration peformance for Piedra
del Águila
The Hydro-Energetic alternatives are evaluated in terms of the goodness of fit between
observed and simulated hydropower plant outflows, volumes, and reservoir water levels
1,800.00
Observed
1,700.00
A
1,600.00
B
1,500.00
1,400.00
C
1,300.00
Collon Desembocadura
1,200.00
Streamflow [m3/s]
SUB-BASIN
Andacollo
COLLON
OUTLET
Nash-Sutcliffe
(*)MSE:
Model conceptualization in WEAP
LIMAY
Billion Cubic Meter
III. Methodology
STATISTICS
L_ALTO
TRAFUL
16020
1,100.00
1,000.00
900.00
800.00
700.00
600.00
3457
5480
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
The system provides various uses of water resources:
• Hydropower generation, contributing to 15% of the national
electricity market
• Fruit and horticultural products for local markets and export
• Human and industrial water supply
• Mining and oil exploitation, including Vaca Muerta reservoir
Impacts of climate change on the
system
Water resource conflicts
between political actors and
stakeholders
Projected increase in water
demand in the region
More frequent and severe water
shortages over the coming
decades
Jul/10
Oct/10
Jan/10
Apr/10
Jul/09
Oct/09
Jan/09
Apr/09
Jul/08
Oct/08
Jan/08
Apr/08
Oct/07
Jul/07
Apr/07
Jan/07
Oct/06
Jul/06
Apr/06
Jan/06
Oct/05
Jul/05
Apr/05
Jan/05
Jul/04
Oct/04
Jan/04
Apr/04
Jul/03
Oct/03
Jan/03
Apr/03
Jul/02
Oct/02
Apr/02
Jan/02
Oct/01
Jul/01
Apr/01
Jan/01
Oct/00
Jul/00
1420
4194
Apr/00
Alto Traful
Limay
Expected energy according to hydrologic year type
-
Outflows from Piedra del Aguila reservoir for the three different management rules
V. Preliminary conclusions
Piedra del
Águila
5000 MW of installed hydroelectric power
contribute 15 % to the national electricity market
7154
Jan/00
River discharges are
characterized by two
peaks due to rainfall
runoff (winter) and
snowmelt (spring)
Collon Outlet
Energy
Requirement
Component
Hydro/climate input data:
Precipitation
Temperature (-0.6 ° decrease each 100 m)
Albedo, melting point, freezing point
Land use (% of catchment area)
Prairie
Forest
WEAP, Water Evaluation and Planning system (www.weap21.org)
applied to simulate hydrology/energy
• Simulation period: 2000-2010/ monthly time step.
For hydrologic component
• Sub-basins discretized into altitude bands or catchments (hydrologic units)
• Two layer model to simulate hydrological processes in each catchment
• Observed discharge time series used as target
For energy requirement component
•Alicura, Piedra del Aguila, Pichi Picu Leufu, Chocón, Arroyito, and Cerros
Colorado hydroelectrical plants were simulated
•Only Piedra del Aguila and Chocón have seasonal regulation capacity
• The model captures hydrologic behavior with a good match between
observed and simulated discharges for the simulated period
• Alternative B achieves the best calibration performance. However,
alternative C does not need the observed hydro-electric generation
as a demand to achieve an acceptable model performance, and
therefore is a good candidate for future climate change scenario
assessment.
• Model results encourage future work to build an effective diagnostic
tool for water resources planning under climate change scenarios.
Future work
• Include all other requirements (irrigation, human and industry, etc.)
for the whole system down to the Rio Negro outlet.
• Downscale climate models to allow incorporation of climate change
projection data in WEAP.
• Evaluate different strategies with regard to water sufficiency, costs
and benefits, compatibility with environmental targets, and
sensitivity to uncertain factors.
Acknowledgements
IDRC-CRDI Grant 107097-001.