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FEWS NET FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Global Weather Hazards Summary August 29 - September 4, 2014 Rainfall expected to alleviate some dryness in Central America and Haiti Africa Weather Hazards Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat Seasonally Dry 2 1.Below-average rains during the Belg season and a late onset of the Kiremt rains have led to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed planting and hurt the development of already-planted crops over the Arsi and West Arsi areas of central Ethiopia. 4 3 1 2. Despite an increase in rainfall over the past few weeks, moisture deficits have persisted in northwestern Senegal. The delayed onset of the season since July has already affected crops. 3. Heavy rains during the past few weeks have destroyed houses and flooded producing areas in many parts of Darfur in Sudan. The moderate to heavy rains forecast during the next week are likely to cause additional flooding. Source: FEWS NET/NOAA 4. Heavy downpours during the past few weeks have caused flooding, infrastructure damage, injuries, and displacements of people across the Khartoum, River Nile, and Al Gazeira States of Sudan. Potential for flooding remains high as heavy rains are forecast to continue upstream over the Ethiopian highland. FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected], [email protected], or 1-301-683-3424. Weather Hazards Summary August 29 - September 4, 2014 Latin America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards 1. The passage of a tropical disturbance (presently Tropical Storm Cristobal) triggered heavy rainfall, which has led to localized flooding, infrastructure damage, displaced populations, and fatalities in Haiti and the Dominican Republic during the last week. However, increased rainfall has helped 2 to mitigate long-term seasonal dryness throughout south and eastern Hispaniola. Seasonable rainfall is expected during the next week. 1 1 Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat No Hazards3 Posted for Central America 2. Since late June, poor rainfall across central Guatemala, southern Honduras, El Salvador, and western Nicaragua is likely to hurt Primera crop development. 3. Extended dry spells and below-average rains since March have led to substantial seasonal rainfall deficits and poor ground conditions in southeastern Honduras, west-central Nicaragua, and parts of northern Costa Rica. Poorly distributed Primera rainfall and acute dryness during mid-June have also caused crop failure in eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and eastern Guatemala. Source: FEWS NET/NOAA Central Asia Weather Hazards 1. Below-normal precipitation since May has resulted in drought conditions across parts of northwest Kazakhstan, where dry weather persisted for the second consecutive week. 2. Poorly distributed rainfall since May has led to growing moisture deficits and low soil moisture in southeastern Kazakhstan. 3. Abnormal heat is expected in the western third of Kazakhstan early this week, with maximum temperatures forecast to exceed 36°C. A cold front is expected to bring relief from abnormally high temperatures by the end of August. 1 3 2 Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat Temperatures Temperatures averaged up to 10°C above-normal across Kazakhstan from August 17-23, but were closer to normal across the rest of Central Asia. Abnormal Source: FEWS NET/NOAA heat is expected in the western third of Kazakhstan early this week, when maximum temperatures are forecast to exceed 36°C. A cold front is expected to bring much cooler temperatures to Kazakhstan by the end of August. Precipitation Dry weather persisted for the second consecutive week in northwest Kazakhstan, where drought conditions are the result of below-normal precipitation since May. Meanwhile, locally heavy rainfall (up to 97 mm) fell in northern Pakistan. During the next week, little or no precipitation is expected across Central Asia. The aforementioned cold front is likely to bring locally heavy rain (more than 25 mm) to northern Kazakhstan. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 Weather Hazards Summary hanced rains have persisted in West Africa. Africa hanced rains have persisted in West Africa. lowing copious amounts of rain during the prior week, West Africa Above-average rains persist in Africa. West Africa nhanced rains have persisted in West eived another of heavy rains. While heaviest (> 200Africa mm) lowing copiousweek amounts of rain during thethe prior week, West nfall was observed in southern Senegal, a robust rainfall eived another week of heavy rains. While the heaviest 200Africa mm) Following above-average rainfall last week, West(> Africa llowing copious amounts of rain during the prior week, West tribution, encompassing much of of West Africa was recorded during nfall was observed in southern Senegal, a robust rainfall received another week heavy rains, with the highest ceived another week of heavy rains. While the heaviest (> 200 mm) past week (Figure 1). much The rain belt pushed as far north as the tribution, West Africa was during amounts (>200 inofsouthern Senegal (Figure 1). The rain nfall wasencompassing observed in mm) southern Senegal, a recorded robust rainfall uthern half of(Figure Mauritania, which reduced thirty-day rainfall deficits past week 1). The rain belt pushed as far north as the belt pushed north intoofthe southern of Mauritania, which stribution, encompassing much West Africahalf was recorded during ther and replenished soilwhich moisture in the region.rainfall Moderate to uthern Mauritania, thirty-day further reduced 30-day rainfall deficits and replenished e past half weekof (Figure 1). The rainreduced belt pushed as far northdeficits assoil the ally heavy rains also fell inmoisture northerninSenegal, helping to erode ther and replenished soil the region. Moderate to uthern half moisture of Mauritania, which Moderate reduced thirty-day rainfall deficits in the region. to locally heavy also gative anomalies associated with the delayed onset of rains the rainy ally rains also fell inmoisture northern helping to erode ther heavy and replenished soil inSenegal, the region. Moderate to fell in northern Senegal, helping to erode rainfall deficits ason during July. Farther east, moderate to onset heavy ofrains were gativeheavy anomalies with the delayed the rainy cally rains associated also fell indelayed northern Senegal, helping toin erode resulting from the onset of the rainy season July. gistered over July. Nigeria, resulting in flooding and severalrains displaced ason Farther east, to heavy were gativeduring anomalies associated withmoderate theover delayed onset of in theflooding rainy Moderate to heavy rains fell Nigeria, resulting ople over the Gwagwalada locality of the central parts of the gistered over Nigeria, resulting in flooding and several displaced ason duringand July. Farther east, moderate to heavy rains were displaced populations in central parts of the country. untry. In thethe north east parts of Nigeria, rains continued, ople over Gwagwalada locality of moderate theand central parts of the gistered over Nigeria, resulting in flooding several displaced Moderate rains continued in northeast Nigeria, which turned ich contributed to east turn moisture deficits into surpluses over some untry. In the north parts of Nigeria, moderate rains continued, ople over the Gwagwalada locality of inthe central parts of the moisture deficits into surpluses some areas. al areas. ich contributed to turn moisture deficits into surpluses over some untry. In the north east parts of Nigeria, moderate rains continued, al areas. hich contributed toofturn moisture deficits into surpluses over some Africa received rainfall during analysis ofMuch rainfallWest anomalies during above-average the second dekad (10-day cal areas. the second 10-day period of August. Rainfall surpluses riod) of August has anomalies shown above-average rains across of analysis of rainfall during the second dekad much (10-day between 50-100 mm were observed in southern Mauritania, est Africa. Rainfall surpluses ranging between 50-100 mm were riod) of August has shown above-average rains across much of analysis ofnortheastern rainfall anomalies duringCote thed’Ivoire, second dekadNigeria, (10-day Mali, northern eastern served in southern Mauritania, northeastern Mali, northern Cote est Africa. Rainfall surpluses ranging between 50-100 mm were riod) of August has shown above-average rains across of andNigeria, eastern Chad (Figure 2).Chad These(Figure surpluses areThe themuch result voire, eastern and eastern 2).northern positive served in southern Mauritania, northeastern Mali, Cote est Africa. Rainfall surpluses ranging between 50-100 mm were of the Inter-Tropical Front pushing farther northward than is nfall anomalies have resulted from an(Figure anomalous northward voire, Nigeria, and eastern Chad The positive servedeastern in southern Mauritania, northeastern Mali,2). northern and more frequent rainfall inanomalous central portions of Cote West sition anomalies of the normal Inter-tropical Front and more frequent rains across the nfall have resulted from an northward voire, eastern Nigeria, and eastern Chad (Figure 2). The positive Africa. The recent increase in rainfall has reduced rainfallhas ntral portions of West Africa. The recent increase in rainfall sition of the Inter-tropical Front and more frequent rains across the nfall anomalies have resulted from an anomalous northward ped reduce deficits accumulated deficits soil andmoisture replenish soil moisture over and replenished over many local areas. ntral of West Africa. increase in rainfall sitionportions of the Inter-tropical FrontThe and recent more frequent rains acrosshas the ny local areas. ped reduce accumulated deficits and replenish soil moisture over ntral portions of West Africa. The recent increase in rainfall has For the next week, torrential rains are forecast over ny local areas. lped reduce accumulated deficits and replenish soil moisture over Senegal, Leone, and r next week,southern torrential rains Guinea-Bissau, are forecast Guinea, over farSierra western Africa, any local areas. southern Mali. Moderate to heavy rains are also expected luding southern Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Guinea Conakry, Sierra r next week, torrential rains are forecast over far western Africa, one, and southern Mali. In Moderate to heavy rains are alsoacross expected over Nigeria. contrast, light rainsGuinea are expected the luding Senegal, Guinea Bissau, r next southern week, torrential rains are forecast over farConakry, western Sierra Africa, er Nigeria. In contrast, light suppressed rains are northern parts of thetoSahel, including northern Senegal, one, and southern Mali. Moderate to heavy rains are also expected cluding southern Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Guinea Conakry, Sierra ossNigeria. the northern partssouthern of the Sahel. These includeNiger. northern western Mali, andrains western er In contrast, light to Mauritania, suppressed one, and southern Mali. Moderate to heavy rains are are also expected expected negal, western Mali,parts southern Mauritania, and western Niger. oss the northern of the Sahel. These include northern er Nigeria. In contrast, light to suppressed rains are expected negal, western Mali,reduced southern Mauritania, and western Niger. Slightly rains observed Sudan ross the northern parts of the Sahel. in These include northern August 29 - September 4, 2014 Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm) Valid: August 20 – August 2014 Satellite Estimated Rainfall26, (mm) Valid: August 20 – August 26, 2014 Satellite Estimated (mm) Figure 1: Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Rainfall (mm) Valid: Valid: August 20-26, 2014August 20 – August 26, 2014 Figure 1: NOAA/CPC Figure 1: NOAA/CPC Satellite Estimated Rainfall Anomaly Source: (mm) NOAA/CPC Figure 1: Valid: NOAA/CPC August Rainfall 11 – August 20, 2014 Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm) Figure 2:Satellite Satellite-Estimated Anomaly (mm) Valid: August 11 – August 20, 2014 Valid: August 11-20, 2014 Satellite Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm) Valid: August 11 – August 20, 2014 Figure 2: NOAA/CPC negal, western Mali, southern Mauritania, and western Niger. During the past week, rainfall over parts of south-central Source: NOAA/CPC Figure 2: NOAA/CPC ghtly reduced rains Sudan. Sudan wasobserved lighter thanin during the prior week. However, Satellite Estimated Rainfall Figure 3. Satellite-Estimated Rainfall (mm) Percentile Figure 2: Valid: NOAA/CPC ghtly reduced rains Sudan. heavy rainsobserved continued in over Darfur in the western parts of the Valid: 20 –Rainfall AugustPercentile 26, 2014 July 30 -Satellite August 5,August 2014 Estimated ring the pastcountry, week, resulting a reduction in rainfall was observed over parts in floods and the destruction of houses. Valid: August 20 – August 26, 2014 ghtly reduced rains observed in Sudan. Satellite Estimated Rainfall Percentile south-central Sudan relative that during the prior ring the pastModerate week, ato reduction intorainfall observed over parts heavy rains also fell was in eastern Sudan andweek. Valid: August 20 – August 26, 2014 wever, heavy rains continued over the Darfur in the parts south-central Sudan relative to3). that during the western prior week. western Ethiopia (Figure Although rains uring the past week, a reduction in rainfall wasabove-average observed over parts the country, which resulted inoffloods, destroyed shelters, and wever, heavy rains continued over the Darfur in the parts have fallen over much Africa during thewestern past days, south-central Sudan relative toEast that during the prior30 week. ected people. Moderate to heavy rains were also received in the country, which resulted in floods, destroyed shelters, and rainfall have remained localized of southowever, heavy rainsdeficits continued over the over Darfur in theareas western parts stern Sudan and western Ethiopia (Figure 3). Although positive ected people. Moderate to heavy rains were also received in central Ethiopia and western South Sudan. During the next the country, which resulted in floods, destroyed shelters, and nfall anomalies have been observed over much of Eastern Africa stern and western Ethiopia (Figure 3).Sudan, Although positive week, reduced rains are expected the ected Sudan people. Moderate to heavy rains over were alsoexcept received in ring anomalies the past thirty days, rainfall deficits haveof remained over nfall have been observed overare much Eastern Africa region, where heavy (Figure rains forecast to trigger new stern SudanDarfur and western Ethiopia 3). Although positive alizedthe areas ofthirty south-central Ethiopia and western South Sudan. ring past days, rainfall have over flooding. South Sudan,deficits there an increased chance nfall anomalies haveOver been observed over ismuch ofremained Eastern Africa ring the next outlook period, reduced rains are expected over alized areas of south-central Ethiopia and western South Sudan. for above-average potentially in localizedover ring the past thirty days, rains, rainfall deficits resulting have remained dan, except the Darfurperiod, region,reduced where the forecast heavy rains ring the next outlook rains are expected over calized areas of south-central western South Sudan. flooding. Meanwhile,Ethiopia seasonal,and moderate to heavy rains are uld conditions on the where ground the andforecast trigger new flooding. dan,exacerbate except the Darfurperiod, region, heavy rains uring the next outlook reduced rains are expected over expected to continue in western Ethiopia, which are likely to er South Sudan, there is an chance for above-average uld exacerbate conditions on increased the ground and forecast trigger new flooding. dan, exceptincrease the Darfur region, where the heavy rains downstream river levels even further, thus elevating ns, potentially resulting flooding, particularly over flooder South Sudan, there in is localized an increased chance for above-average uld exacerbate conditions on the ground new flooding. for flooding in eastern Sudan.and trigger one areas. risks Meanwhile, seasonal, moderate to heavy over rainsfloodare ns, potentially resulting in localized flooding, particularly ver South Sudan, there is an increased chance for above-average pected to continue in western Ethiopia, which are likely torains increase one areas. Meanwhile, seasonal, moderate to heavy are ns, potentially resulting in localized flooding, particularly over floodSource: NOAA/CPC wnstream river levels further,Ethiopia, thus elevating risks forto floods in pected to continue in western which are increase one areas. Meanwhile, seasonal, moderate to likely heavy rains are Figure 3: NOAA/CPC stern Sudan. wnstream river levels further,Ethiopia, thus elevating risks fortofloods in Figure 3: NOAA/CPC pected to continue in western which are likely increase stern Sudan. ote: The hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 wnstream river levels further, thus elevating risks for floods in Figure 3:areNOAA/CPC eek). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons added in medium areas where conditions stern Sudan. ote: The hazards outlook on pageSystems 1 is basedNetwork on current weather/climate information and short and rangeanomalous weather forecasts (uphave to 1 Famine Earlymap Warning een The boundaries of these only conditions. approximate at thispolygons continental scale. in This product not reflect long range eek).observed. It assesses their potential impact onpolygons crop and are pasture Shaded are added areas wheredoes anomalous conditions have easonal forecasts or indicate current or projected food weather/climate security conditions. ote:observed. Theclimate hazards outlook map onofpage 1 is based onare current and short medium range weather forecasts to 1 een The boundaries these polygons only approximate at information this continental scale.and This product does not reflect long(up range eek). It climate assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have easonal forecasts or indicate current or projected food conditions. security conditions. uestions or comments this productofmay be directed to [email protected] or 1-301-683-3424. een observed. Theabout boundaries these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range 3 America. Weekly rainfall accumulations in excess of 75mm are forecast over much of southern Guatem Costa Rica, with the potential for locally heavier amounts for many coastal departments. Increased rai many anomalously dry areas, particularly in the Gulf of Fonseca region. Weather Hazards Summary August 29 - September 4, 2014 Latin America and the Caribbean Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm) August 27 – September 3, 2014 Below-average rains return to many parts of Guatemala, Honduras, and western Nicaragua During the last week, below-average fell throughout northern Central America, with more seasonable amounts observed over southern Guatemala, southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. The reduction in this past week followed two weeks of heavier, seasonal rainfall that helped low soil moisture during the beginning/middle of August. The return of below-average rainfall during the end of August is expected to sustain longer-term moisture deficits resulting from poor rainfall from May to July. Local rain gauges and satelliteestimated rainfall still show large deficits (10-50 percent of normal rainfall) that have persisted since the beginning of May across the Pacific side of Central America. Much of this dryness has resulted in failed and wilted Primera crops in many areas. During the next week, rainfall is expected to increase significantly over the Pacific side of Central America. Weekly rainfall in excess of 75 mm is forecast over much of southern Guatemala, El Salvador, western Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, with the potential for locally heavier amounts for many coastal areas. Increased rains are expected to alleviate abnormal dryness in many areas, particularly in the Gulf of Fonseca region. Figure 1:in Source Seasonable rainfall expected HispaniolaNOAA this week/ Figure 1: Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm) Valid: August 27 - September 3, 2014 Source: NOAA/CPC CPC During the last week, the passage of a tropical disturbance (currently classified as Tropical Storm Cristobal) over northeastern Hispaniola brought heavy rains that caused flash flooding, displacements of people, damage to infrastructure, and fatalities in several areas of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. In Haiti, localized flooding and excess runoff were reported in St. Marc, Portde-Paix, and Ouanaminthe. According to satellite estimates, the increase in rainfall during August throughout Hispaniola has greatly helped to offset short-term deficitstodue to poor seasonal rainfall this summer. However, below-average moisture Questions or comments about this productmoisture may be directed [email protected] or 1-301-683-3424. conditions still persist in the south. Since early May, many local areas in both Haiti and the Dominican Republic have had 50 to 80 percent of their normal rainfall, with areas of the southern coastline receiving less than 50 percent of normal rainfall. This longterm dryness is the result of a delayed start of rains and/or erratic seasonal rainfall, which is expected to negatively affect cropping activities. Forecasts suggest a seasonable distribution of rainfall for the next week. ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDS Hazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4
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