Integrated Business Model
Transcripción
Integrated Business Model
Innovative Technology Solutions for Sustainability ABENGOA Integrated Business Model: Our Basis for Sustainable Growth Analyst & Investor Day Manuel Sánchez May 2012 Forward-looking statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information relating to Abengoa that are based on the beliefs of its management as well as assumptions made and information currently available to Abengoa. Such statements reflect the current views of Abengoa with respect to future events and are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Many factors could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Abengoa to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements that may be expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including, among others, changes in general economic, political, governmental and business conditions globally and in the countries in which Abengoa does business, changes in interest rates, changes in inflation rates, changes in prices, changes to national and international laws and policies that support renewable energy sources; inability to improve competitiveness of our renewable energy services and products; decline in public acceptance of renewable energy sources; legal challenges to regulations, subsidies and incentives that support renewable energy sources; inability to obtain new sites and expand existing ones; changes in business strategy and various other factors. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described herein as anticipated, believed, estimated, expected or targeted. Abengoa does not intend, and does not assume any obligations, to update these forward-looking statements. 2 Agenda 1 Quick Glance to 2011 2 How did we do it? Abengoa’s Principles 3 What to expect in 2012 4 What’s next? 2013 and beyond 3 Review of 2011 2011, a truly challenging year Global recession Eurozone crisis Liquidity restrictions Budgetary restrictions Arab Revolution Decreased support to renewable energy 4 Strategic Priorities 2011 In that economic environment our strategic priorities were very clear Continue pursuing sustainable growth by global reach and diversification Continue delivery on proven execution track record Protect liquidity, ensuring our obligations are met Improve shareholder returns Leverage and expand existing visibility of earnings Increase financial flexibility 5 2011 Key Financial Highlights How did we do? Revenues EBITDA 7,089 M€ 1,103 M€ 46% (4,860 M€ FY 2010) 2.7x (2,656 M€ FY 2007) 36% (812 M€ FY 2010) 3.4x (323 M€ FY 2007) Net Income Corporate Net Debt to Corporate EBITDA 257 M€ 2.1x 24% (207 M€ FY 2010 figure) 2.1x (120 M€ FY 2007) from 3.8x at FY 2010 1. Delivery of good results, as anticipated 2. Significant improvement in balance sheet structure 6 Asset Investment Phase During the asset investment phase we have significantly reduced Abengoa’s risk profile Asset Investment 2001 2010 Industrial Production 2020 Concession-type infrastructure «Internal» capex «External» capex 100% promoter risk No promoter risk Growth in coporate debt non-recourse debt, corporate debt Revenues exposed to market risk Secured revenues Investment in 1G and recycling capacity completed Significant roll-out of projects in the next 18 months 7 Corporate Capex Evolution Reduced corporate risk through a change of equity investment profile towards concession-type assets ... Equity investment: E&C, Industrial Production 647 2007 956 604 2008 2009 351 187 2010 2011 Equity investment: Concession-type Infrastructure capex 334 311 210 2007 2008 2009 466 2010 854 2011 Corporate Capex Split Evolution – Equity investment E&C, Industrial Production 34% 66% 2007 34% 18% 66% 82% 2008 Concession-type infrastructure 57% 43% 2009 2010 82% 18% 2011 8 Net Debt Evolution ... financed with non-recourse debt at the project level Corporate Net Debt (€M) 1,949 1,441 1,105 2007 2008 2009 2,276 1,486 2010 Non-recourse Net Debt (€M) 2011 3,981 Debt if «proportional consolidation» 1,078 1,369 2007 2008 Net Debt Split Evolution 2,920 2,166 2009 Corporate 2010 2,187 2011 Non-recourse 49% 49% 53% 56% 51% 51% 47% 44% 2007 2008 2009 2010 73% 27% 2011 9 Improved leverage profile Understanding Abengoa’s leverage profile requires a closer look What does a 5.0x Consolidated Net Debt / EBITDA mean? 2008 Corporate 3.9x 2011 2.1x Non-recourse 8.0x 10.3x Consolidated 5.2x 5.0x Reduced corporate risk Higher ROE on project investment 10 Agenda 1 Looking Back to 2011 2 How did we do it? Abengoa’s Business Model 3 What to expect in 2012 4 What’s next? 2013 and beyond 11 Abengoa’s Principles Abengoa’s success story is based on our integrated busniess model and 3 key principles Global reach Engine of growth Industries Competitive advantage Integrated Business Model Discipline Discipline Financial Management 12 Integrated Business Model Integrated business model The Abengoa Value Chain Engineering Procurement E&C Construction Maintenance Operation Concession and Industrial Production Key Benefits Standardisation of activities through clearly defined procedures In-house capabilities – Critical activities are executed by own resources or through stable strategic alliances Cross divisional learning benefits Improved visibility and growth profile vs. pure players Portfolio Management Stronger financial profile and flexibility Asset Rotations Capital allocation managed to optimise “global IRR” whilst protecting key proprietary know-how Optimisation of maintenance activities 13 Integrated Business Model Allows to take advantage of different market opportunities Industrial Production Abengoa Business E&C Sponsor External customer Activity EPC EPC + Operation Sale of product Project Delivery Regulation Supply / Demand Equity Source none EPC margin ABENGOA Debt Guarantee none Project ABENGOA Risk Concessions External customer ABENGOA 14 Integrated Business Model The concession model allows for superior returns and self-financing Identification of Opportunity Start of Construction Development Phase Limited development costs Construction / Execution Phase Equity contribution < EPC mg N/R Project Finance Asset Rotation Disciplined Asset Portfolio Management Opportunistic assets divestment to capture derisking arbitrage, crystallizing value uplift Portfolio of Mature Concessions Managed to Maximise Group Objectives Dividend distribution Natural deleverage 10-15% IRR to maturity Start of Operations Concession Ramp- up (2-4 years) Asset ramp up O&M optimisation Reduction asset risk profile Mature concession with clear Cash Flow Profile 15 Geographic Diversification A truly global business World (M€) Revenues FY 2001 1,380 Revenues FY 2011 Rest of Europe 7,089 15% 9% Spain US 1% 11% Asia & Oceania 2% Rest of Latin America 18% 27% 64% 19% 6% Africa 1% Brazil 6% 1% 21% 16 Industry Diversification Well diversified platform provides a natural hedge to market cycles EBITDA 2001: 157 M€ EBITDA 2011: 1,103 M€ 33% 30% 4% 40% 66% 27% Different industries – Different market and earnings drivers E&C Backlog and EPC margin Internationalisation Infrastructure investment macro trends Concession Secured revenues/cash flows Average contract life of 25 years EBITDA recurrence Industrial Production Revenue recurrence Demand & pricing risk / upside Market cycle 17 R&D: the engine of growth R&D is Abengoa’s engine of growth Abengoa’s Strategy R&D Project R&D Program 18 Financial Discipline Conservative approach to liquidity Debt Corporate Non-recourse + Working Capital N/R factoring Confirming Client pre-payments + Cash Cash pooling Diversification Currency risk management Abengoa’s financial policy is focused on achieving maximum flexibility and resilience for the company 19 Financial Discipline Liquidity ensures we maximise our options High Yield issuance – EU (B$) 14.9 20.8 27.4 30.7 30.7 6.5 3.0 Equity issuance – EU (B$) 80.2 Positive trend since mid 2010 Markets seemed to re-open in H1 2011 ... ... but quickly closed again 44.1 19.0 39.0 20.7 13.1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 In the current market conditions, the benefits of our approach on liquidity clearly outweight the financial cost 69.7 Meet debt maturities Meet E&C payment obligations Execute committed capex plan Additional «room for maneuver» for management Building up a liquidity «life-line» takes much longer than capital markets to reverse 20 Financial Discipline Investment only after financial risk has been ringfenced at the project level ABENGOA Equity EPC Margin Abengoa Equity Dividend Limited equity at risk: Equity < EPC margin Customer Project NewCo Debt Debt re-payment Project Debt Limited responsibility to project debt Non-recourse debt Banks 21 Management Discipline Strict management procedures implemented accross the organisation Strategic Planning & Control Risk Management Strategic planning through McKinsey’s «3 Horizons» Put Financial risk Call Commodities 10-year strategic plan reformulated every 6 months – Hedging FX Interests Review of KPIs Credit risk Reporting & Control: NOC – Monthly analysis and review of results (KPIs) – SOX compliant Common management procedures Non-recourse factoring Credit insurance Operational risk At bidding At execution Note: 2010 data 22 Agenda 1 Looking Back to 2011 2 How did we do it? Abengoa’s Principles 3 What to expect in 2012 4 What’s next? 2013 and beyond 23 Strategic Priorities 2012 Same financial environment, so same strategic priorities Continue pursuing sustainable growth by global reach and diversification Continue delivery on proven execution track record Protect liquidity, ensuring our obligations are met Improve shareholder returns Leverage and expand existing visibility of earnings Increase financial flexibility 24 2012 Guidance Guidance for 2012 How will we get there? Revenue EBITDA Corp. EBITDA Corporate Leverage 7,550 – 7,750 M€ 8% 1,275 - 1,325 M€ E&C Backlog 18% Excellence in operating out assets 780 – 800 M€ Roll-out of concession plan 10% <3.0x Extension of syndicated loan 25 2012 Guidance Revenue Breakdown M€ Total Revenues E&C Evolution 7,650 3,526 1,683 7,089 4,100 2,302 3,085 2009 2010 2011 2012e Concession-Type Infrastructure Evolution 4,860 465 3,444 1,542 219 308 427 2009 2010 2011 465 2012e Industrial Production Evolution 3,136 2,250 427 308 219 3,526 1,683 2009 4,100 2,302 2010 2011 2012e E&C 3,136 (2)% 1,542 2009 3,085 2,250 Concession-Type Infrastructures Industrial Production 2010 2011 2012e 26 High Revenue Visibility Backlog (M€) (1) Illustrative Rest of 2012e 2013e 2014e+ 7,078 3,141 2,727 1,210 32,541 33,620 Concession-type Industrial Production Asset based, recurring revenues E&C Order Book Mar. 2012 Estimated Conversion to Revenues 330 749 16,100 (1) 11,200 2,100 calculation according to estimated 12 months of revenues. 2014+e is calculated as 4 years of revenues. 2,800 27 High Revenue Visibility Solid revenue visibility for E&C business Year-end Backlog (M€) Estimated Conversion to Revenues 2012E 7,535 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 % sales 2013E 2014+E 93% 3,832 2,624 1,078 6,253 % sales 5,017 % sales 2011E 2012E 74% 59% 2,593 2,415 2010E 2011E 83% 58% 1,909 2,037 2013+E 1,245 2012+E 1,071 28 Working Capital Policy E&C backlog provides 18-month revenue visibility and ability to generate cash via working capital Historical and Projected Working Capital Overview Aggressive working capital policy: 12.7% 11.9% Factoring n/r factoring with customers 8.7% 6.3% Removes credit risk 847 5.0% Confirming Bank Payment to Suppliers 90 + 90 days 479 148 2007 321 206 2008 Change in WC (M€) 2009 2010 2011 Change in WC as % of Sales Abengoa has consistently been able to generate positive cash flows through efficient management of working capital 29 Debt Maturity Profile Improved maturity profile and liquidity position at March 31, 2012 Pre-extension Maturity Profile (M€) 2,825 376 Cemig Cash Effect Successful 1,566 M€ extension 1,640 2,449 1,282 650 466 556 Liquidity 94 Rest of 2012e 358 200 266 2013e 2014e 422 2015e 616 2016e 865 250 615 130 2017e Subsequent New Corporate Debt Maturity Profile (M€) 2,825 376 Cemig Cash Effect 1,258 2,449 904 907 438 200 266 485 94 273 358 Rest of 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 631 Liquidity Syndicated Loans Note: Maturities exclude revolving facilities 422 Convertible Bonds 642 865 250 616 615 130 2016e 2017e Subsequent Other Corp. Debt 30 Agenda 1 Looking Back to 2011 2 How did we do it? Abengoa’s Principles 3 What to expect in 2012 4 What’s next? 2013 and beyond 31 Supporting macro fundamentals Population remains the key driver of energy demand Projected Population World Europe Brazil USA Rest of Latin America Asia & Oceania Africa World 1,419m 2012 554m 199m 317m 273m 3,925m 1,041m 7,034m 2035 580m 219m 390m 340m 4,596m 1,501m 8,453m Δ% 5% 10% 23% 25% 17% 44% 20% Europe US 26m Asia & Oceania 73m 671m Rest of Latin America 67m 460m 20m Brazil Africa Projected population increase 2012-2035 Source: IHS Global Insight 32 Supporting macro fundamentals Global GDP growth is likely to accelerate, driven by emerging economies Real GDP Growth Rate (%) World 2012E Real GDP (2005 USD billions) 54,479 3.5% Europe US 15,436 2.2% 3.1% Asia & Oceania 13,979 4.8% Africa 4.3% Brazil Rest of Latin America 3.6% Source: IHS Global Insight 1,285 5.1% 15,076 1,373 1,214 33 Supporting macro fundamentals Strong increase of primary energy demand Mtoe 18,000 Other NonOECD 16,000 Middle East 14,000 India 12,000 China 10,000 Other OECD 8,000 6,000 Europe 4,000 United States 2,000 0 1980 2000 2009 2015 2020 2030 2035 Source: WEO2011 34 Supportive Outlook - Transmission T&D investment driven by new generation capacity additions and population growth Latin America Strong economic growth Under developed infrastructure Asia Growing population – Consequent increase in the demand of energy – Huge potential market 10-yr Energy infrastructure plan 48 GW new generation capacity by 2019 37,000 km new lines 2009-19 43.0 B BRL planned investment Investment estimates: Electricity Investment plan 5 GW new generation capacity by 2017 >2,000 Km new lines 2012-17 ~100 B$ until 2020 Middle East 670 M$ planned investment 8 Tenders ~30 B$ until 2020 8 BOT concessions between 2011 and 2012 850 M$ investment 35 Supportive Outlook - CSP CSP will become a relevant technology in the global energy mix World Energy Outlook estimates for 2035 Global capacity additions: 81 GW 15 Committment to Renewable Energy Directive targets 15 11 11 3 EuropeMiddle East USA Africa CSP targets in most of the relevant regions LatAm Global investment: $285 B (2010 prices) Nuclear «shutdown» promoting initiatives such as Desertec (first 22GW agreed by Algeria by 2030) $9 billion solar program, launched in 2009 for a total capacity of 2 GW between 2015-2020 South Africa´s 2030 CSP target is 1GW out of the country´s target of 10,000 GWh from renewable energies Australia´s CSP target: 1GW by 2020 65 46 45 Saudi Arabia has a target of 15% from solar energy by 2020 34 10 EuropeMiddle East USA Africa LatAm Abu Dhabi has set a renewable target of 7% for 2020. The Masdar project, for the deployment of RE, accounts for 750 M$ 36 Supportive Outlook - Recycling Increased industrial activity and tougher regulation on waste disposal Stable growth expected in European steel production (Mt) EAF 250 Stringent environmental regulation will increase demand for recycling capacity 2th largest EAF market, 500 – 600k tons steel dust per year Crude Steel 200 Regulation converging to EU standards 150 100 Abengoa already present 50 0 3rd largest EAF market, ~400k tons steel dust per year CAGR 2011-2015e: 6.7% CAGR 2011-2015e: 6.5% Increasingly strict environmental regulation High landfill cost Zinc consumption is expected to increase by 3.8% between in the next 2 years . Other large EAF markets with growing environmental regulation include Thailand, Brazil, Taiwan and Saudi Arabia 37 Supportive Outlook - Water Governments promoting investment in water infrastructure. Desalination capacity expected to double in the next 5 years 1/3 of the population lacks access to sufficient safe water for basic needs Desalination capacity of 10 million m3/day by 2016 Water Deficient Regions Population with No Access to an Improved Water Source Population with No Access to Improved Sanitation Countries facing Water Stress Countries facing Water Scarcity Water Desalination Investment 2012-2016 8.1 Global investment of 74 B$ 9.0 5.8 Saudi Arabia USA UAE 5.0 3.7 Australia Kuwait 2.8 Israel 3.5 Libya 2.1 1.7 1.9 Spain Algeria India 1.0 0.8 Oman Qatar 38 Supportive Outlook - Biofuels Compliance with renewable energy committments and increase in transport fuel will drive industry in the mid and long term Penetration of biofuels in the 3 key markets 3% Share of fuel (% of energy use) 39% 7% 21% Renewables 15% 4% 2010 2010 2030 7% 2030 15% 1990 2030 0,4% 6% Nuclear 5% 6% Hydro 6% 7% Coal 27% 28% Natural gas 22% 26% Oil 39% 27% 4% 2010 2030 Drivers for the key biofuels markets US Brazil E15 roll-out Price-driven market RPF: 36 BGY in 2022 Energy security Energy security Europe RED : 10% renewable energy in transportation by 2020 Sustainability 39 A Success Story Finalising asset investment, on track to continue to the phase of sustainable growth E&C know-how Asset investment 2001 Sustainable growth 2014 7.089 M€ 1,800 M€ EBITDA 2015 1.380 M€ 1.103 M€ Revenue EBITDA > 15% Dividend payout 166 M€ <3.0x Corporate Solid E&C company Limited R&D investment No recurrent revenues Strong R&D committment Capex >>> EBITDA leverage Maximise N/R debt Increase total debt Limited dividend 40 Innovative Technology Solutions for Sustainability ABENGOA Thank you! Analyst & Investor Day May 2012