Minería y exploración en Perú: situación y perspectivas

Transcripción

Minería y exploración en Perú: situación y perspectivas
Minería y exploración en Perú:
situación y perspectivas
M. Cardozo
Febrero 05, 2015
Jueves Minero
Instituto de Ingenieros de Minas del Perú
Content
• Metal prices
• Cost and margin
• Production
• Exploration
• Mineral discoveries
• Junior financing
Metal Prices
Precios del Oro y la Plata
$1238
$1379
$1238
military and political
concerns about Russia
and Ukraine in the first
half of 2014.
$1142
US economic
recovery leds to US
Dollar strenghtening
$1265
Since November
2014, oil price drops
offsetting US Dollar
influence
$18.25
$17.25
$16.24
$15.71
Copper
Spot Price
60 days
6 months
1 year
5 years
Copper
Storage
Zinc
Spot Price
60 days
6 months
1 year
5 years
Zinc
LME
Storage
Metal prices
Recent and Forecast Commodity Prices
Cash Price (26-Dec14)
Aluminum ($0.93 / lb)
Copper ($2.89 / lb)
Lead ($0.84 / lb)
Nickel ($6.93 / lb)
Zinc ($0.98 / lb)
Gold ($1196 / oz)
Palladium ($815 / oz)
Platinum ($1212 / oz)
Silver ($16.09 / oz)
Uranium ($36.25 / lb)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
$0.99
$3.43
$0.97
$9.91
$0.98
$1,226
$528
$1,611
$20.24
$45.97
$1.09
$4.00
$1.09
$10.38
$1.00
$1,571
$733
$1,719
$35.29
$56.32
$0.92
$3.61
$0.94
$7.95
$0.88
$1,668
$643
$1,549
$31.13
$48.97
$0.84
$3.33
$0.97
$6.81
$0.87
$1,411
$725
$1,485
$23.82
$40.42
$0.87
$3.13
$0.98
$7.93
$0.98
$1,279
$825
$1,460
$19.91
$34.51
$0.93
$3.12
$1.00
$8.83
$1.07
$1,275
$864
$1,450
$19.70
$44.39
$0.98
$3.18
$1.01
$9.08
$1.14
$1,296
$879
$1,509
$20.26
$51.20
$1.03
$3.25
$1.00
$9.18
$1.17
$1,275
$878
$1,528
$20.34
$59.51
$1.13
$3.28
$0.99
$9.36
$1.16
$1,282
$919
$1,526
$20.24
$64.71
Base metal prices are LME cash prices quoted in US$ per lb. Precious metal prices are London spot prices quoted in US$ per oz.
William Matlack
Scarsdale Equities LLC
Kitco, Dec 29th, 2014
Volatile metal prices
•
¿Se terminó el ciclo de los altos precios de los
metales?
•
¿Quién maneja los precios…oferta vs. demanda o
percepción/especulación?
Cost and margin
En 2013, de acuerdo con datos de la Comisión Chilena del Cobre (Cochilco), producir
una libra de cobre en el país (Chile) costó US$2,50, por sobre el promedio mundial
(US$2,38). Las cifras están medidas en dólares de cada año y corresponden al costo C3,
que incluye costo directo de caja más depreciación más intereses y costos indirectos y
deduce el crédito por venta de subproductos.
La tendencia al alza en costos en la minería chilena, no ha logrado detenerse del todo,
según grafica un reciente informe internacional sobre esta industria en Latinoamérica,
preparado por Scotiabank GBM. En su última estimación del cash cost C1 para el
segundo trimestre –sobre costos de producción, que incluye remuneraciones,
materiales, energía, servicios de terceros, gastos de refinación y ventas y créditos por
subproductos–, el conjunto de mineras del país (Chile) aumentaron en 12% este
indicador, pasando de US$ 1,68 la libra de cobre el tercer trimestre del año pasado, a
US$ 1,88.
Este nivel es mayor al que tienen en general los yacimientos de cobre en el mundo, que
se estiman estarán ubicadas en US$ 1,73 la libra para el segundo trimestre. Pero deja a
las operaciones nacionales (chilenas) muy lejanas al promedio en Perú, que llega a US$
1,27, según el documento. De todos modos, Peru no ha estado exento de esta
tendencia alcista. Entre los dos periodos analizados por el banco de inversión, su cash
cost creció 23%, mientras a nivel mundial fue de sólo un 7%.
Notas tomadas de artículos diversos de Mining Press de Junio 2014
Las compañías mineras de oro siguen vigilando muy de cerca el aumento de los costes de producción,
más concretamente en aquellas minas que llevan años de explotación y cuyas reservas más cercanas a la
superficie se van agotando. En el Informe de SNL Metals & Mining denominado “Estrategias para el
Cambio de las Reservas de Oro”, se hace notar como el principal de los problemas el aumento de los
costes medios de producción desde 560 dólares por onza en los 2000 hasta 2.300 dólares por onza en la
actualidad.
Las expectativas de crecimiento de los costes son aún mayores para 2014. El análisis se basa en una
muestra de 192 minas de oro con una capacidad de producción de 50.000 onzas anuales.
De forma sistemática, la media de tres años de los costes de capital de las minas está por encima de los
precios internacionales del oro. Desde 2006, los mineros se embarcaron en proyectos que en muchos
casos eran faraónicos y que, al final, han tenido que abandonar por falta de rentabilidad. Al calor de la
subida de los precios, las mineras diversificaron sus negocios afrontando subidas importantes en los
costes de extracción.
Para 2014, se espera un incremento del coste medio hasta 2.400 dólares por onza mientras que para
2015, este coste bajaría hasta los 1.900 dólares por onza. Con respecto a los costes operativos
directamente relacionados con la producción, desde 2004 se han incrementado en términos reales un
190% pasando a ser de 702 dólares por onza en 2013.
Costs increasing…margins reducing
•
¿Estamos manejando adecuadamente los costos?
•
¿Hay un problema de productividad?
•
¿Cut-off y ley promedio apropiados?
•
¿Capex excesivos?
Production
Moving from the “gold rush” into a “copper boom”
8
Gold Ounces
(millions)
1st PRODUCER OF GOLD IN LATIN AMERICA
AND
6th
6
4
IN THE WORLD
2
-
Millions of tons of copper
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
5
Copper Tons
(millions)
4
3
3rd LARGEST WORLD’s PRODUCER OF COPPER
WILL SOON RECOVER ITS 2nd POSITION
2
WILL DRASTICALLY REDUCE DIFFERENCE WITH CHILE
1
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Producción de Oro en el Perú
Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types
actual
8
Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types
actual
forecast
7.3
6.7
6.6
6
6
5
5
3.7
Moz
4
6.7
7
3
5.5
4.1
3
2
2
1
1
-
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Alluvial Gold
Other
IOCG
Skarn
Porphyry
Mesothermal veins
LS Epithermal
HS Epithermal
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Alluvial Gold
Skarn
LS Epithermal
Other
Porphyry
HS Epithermal
IOCG
Mesothermal veins
M. Cardozo et al, 2008
M. Cardozo et al, 2006
Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types
Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types
actual
8
7
forecast
6.7
5.9
6
Millions Oz Gold
6.5
4
Moz
Million Ounces of Gold
7
forecast
8
5.5
5
5.3
5.2
4
3
2
1
1990
1992
1994
1996
Alluvial Gold
Skarn
HS Epithermal
M. Cardozo et al, 2012
1998
2000
2002
2004
Other
Porphyry
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Mesothermal veins
LS Epithermal
(Estimated in May 2012)
J. Acosta et al, 2014
(Estimated in May 2014)
Estimate by May 2014
Improbable drop, traditional mines can
sustain up to 160-170 MM oz/year
From: Acosta et al, May 2014
Copper Mines and Projects in Peru
Actual and Planned
Annual Production Mines Projects
Metric Tons of
Fine Copper X 1000
Río Blanco
1-10
10-50
50-200
Actual/Planned Annual Production
Metric Tons of Fine Copper
X 1000
600
200-500
Cerro Corona
La Granja
Minas Conga
Michiquillay
El Galeno
Magistral
Antamina
500
400
300
Toromocho
200
100
0
Las Bambas
Los Chancas
Tintaya
Mina Justa
Zafranal
Cerro Verde
Tía María
Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013
Quechua
Cuajone
Quellaveco
Toquepala
Peruvian Copper Production 1998-2025
Metric Tons of Fine Copper (Millions)
6.0
5.0
Estimate by July 2014
forecast
actual
Río Blanco
Cañariaco
Michiquillay
Haquira
Zafranal
Miocene Porphyry Belt
Los
La Granja
Calatos
Minas Conga
Los Chancas 4.2
Eocene-Oligogocene Porphyry Belt
4.0
El Galeno 4.1
Magistral
Quellaveco
+Cerro Verde
Paleocene-Eocene Porphyry Belt
Other type of deposits
3.0
3.4
Tía María
Toromocho Mina Justa
Las Bambas Constancia
Quechua
2.5
+Toquepala
2.2
2.0
+Cuajone
1.5
1.0
0.0
4.9
Peru Copper Production and Yearly Growth Rates
(actual until 2013 + forecast until 2021)
Estimate by July 2015
Gold and Silver Content of Porphyry Deposits
PORPHYRY BELT
PROJECT
Au g/t
Ag g/t
Mo %
Miocene N-Peru
Cerro Corona
Minas Conga
Galeno
Michiquillay
La Granja
Magistral
Cañariaco
La Arena
1.00
0.71
0.12
0.05-0.10
0.04
2.05
2.50
2.00-4.00
3.70
0.014
0.01-0.02
Miocene Central Peru
Eocene-Oligocene Apurimac
Paleocene SW-Peru
0.06
0.27
Toromocho
Antamina
Las Bambas
Cotabambas
Antapaccay
Los Chancas
Antilla
Haquira
Constancia
Los Calatos
Cuajone
Toquepala
Quellaveco
Cerro Verde
Projected yearly production from
pophyries/skarns of the 3 main copper
porphyry belts by 2021 ?
% of total gold and silver by 2021 ?
0.060
1.6
0.70
6.90
10.3
4.74
2.74
1.51
0.08
0.23
0.13
0.04
0.04
0.05
1.79
3.60
0.03
0.03
3.10
2.30
2.19
1.46
Gold
(millions of
ounces)
0.004
0.021
0.018
0.001
0.010
0.040
0.009
0.001
0.011
0.021
0.020
0.020
0.023
0.010
Silver
Molybdenum
(millions of (thousands of
ounces)
tons)
1.6
40
40 -50
30%
25%
100%
Historic Cumulative Copper
Production in Peru
Total Production in Peru
28 MMT (100%)
Production from main porphyry belts
23 MMT (82%)
Other Cu belts: 2 MMT (7%)
Other non-Cu belts: 3 MMT (11%)
5 MMT
18%
Antamina
4.1 MMT
2 MMT
Metallogenic belts
7%
Miocene porphyry belt
Eocene-oligocene porphyry belt
Paleocene porphyry belt
Tintaya
2.0 MMT
16 MMT
Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013
57%
Toquepala
6.7 MMT
Copper Resources and Reserves
in the Main Porphyry Belts
in Peru
Total reported resources in Peru
218 MMT (100%)
Resources from porphyry belts
192 MMT (88%)
Other Cu belts: 11 MMT (5%)
Other non-Cu belts: 15 MMT (7%)
85 MMT
39%
44 MMT
Metallogenic belts
20%
Miocene porphyry belt
Eocene-oligocene porphyry belt
Paleocene porphyry belt
63 MMT
Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013
29%
Mineral Production
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Gold production decreasing. Extracted resources are not being replace.
Very few significant discoveries lately
Silver will increase production levels if copper porphyries are developed
Zinc and lead will continue increasing moderately. New projects
required to accelerate development
Porphyry copper producers contribute significantly to Au, Ag and Mo
production
Copper potential is one of the largest in the world
Copper developments are being delayed due to social and political
issues
Uncertainty increasing, can we really get up to 5 million tonnes of Cu
production in the next 8-10 years?
Chile taking advantage: Long-term view and policy, sustained technical
and commercial/market research
Peru + Chile could produce 57% (>13 tons) of world’s copper
Peru and Chile Copper Production to 2021
(actual + forecast)
Peru + Chile
13m
57%
Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013
Exploration
Worldwide Exploration
vs. Relative Metals Price
© SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012
Worldwide Exploration Budgets by Target
(as percent of annual total)
© SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012
Worldwide Base Metals Exploration by Target
(as percent of annual total)
© SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012
Worldwide Exploration by Stage
(as percent of annual total)
Own projection
(dashed lines)
Not quantitative,
rough tendencies
© SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012
Exploration expenditures: World
by Commodity : 1975-2013
Other - Bulk 1%
Percentage of total spend
100%
80%
Diamonds
60%
Base Metals
(Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb)
40%
11%
Coal
14%
Iron Ore
12%
24%
33%
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Other – Non Bulk
2%
4%
Gold
20%
0%
1975
Major increase in
spend on Bulk
Minerals
Gold continues
to be the main
target
2010
Sources: MinEx Consulting estimates © September 2014, based on
data from ABS, NRCan, MLR (China), OECD and SNL MEG
MinEx Consulting
Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration
5
Inversión en exploración a nivel mundial
Exploration expenditures: World
China spends more
on exploration than
any other country in
the World
by Region : 1975-2013
Percentage of total spend
2%
7%
100%
17%
80%
2%
15%
60%
6%
22%
40%
6%
20%
11%
12%
0%
1975
1980
1985
1990
Note: Includes spend on Bulk Minerals
“Rest of World” refers to, Mongolia, Middle East and
South West Asia (including India and Pakistan)
MinEx Consulting
1995
2000
2005
2010
Rest of World
FSU + E Europe
China
Western Europe
Africa
Pacific / SE Asia
Latin America
USA
Canada
Australia
Can+USA+Aust
market share has
halved in the last 2
decades
Sources: MinEx Consulting estimates © September 2014, based
on data from ABS, NRCan, MLR (China), OECD and SNL MEG
Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration
6
Exploration Investment
4.9% 7.7% 4.9% 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% 4.9% 4.2% 4.8% 4.5% 4.9%
6
1,200
% of Worldwide
Investment
1,025
1,000
Peru
6
800
600
4
400
6
200
120
293
5
6
5
720
570
6
3
5
588
591
7
757
683
Peru WW Ranking
7
559
357
Investment US$ Million
257
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
25,000
21,500
20,000
18,158
Worldwide 15,000
12,100
11,330
10,000
5,000
2,440
11,400
8,400
7,930
3,790
Investment US$ Million
15,200
14,474
5,290
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Inversión en exploración en el Perú
Annual Exploration Budgets by Target
Copper
Gold
Other
Zinc-Lead
Total
2010
211.7
196.8
87.3
95.3
591.1
2011
316.2
238.2
115.7
87.1
757.2
2012
351.5
445.3
146.1
82.4
1,025.30
2013
303.7
205.5
115.5
58.2
682.9
2014
252.4
147.3
109.2
50
558.9
Annual Exploration Budgets by Stage
Grassroots
Late Stage & Feasibility
Minesite
Total
2010
214.9
263.2
113
591.1
2011
216.8
411.2
129.2
757.2
2012
237.1
567.8
220.4
1,025.30
2013
234.7
285.4
162.8
682.9
2014
188.4
186
184.5
558.9
Annual Exploration Budgets by Company Type
Major
Intermediate
Junior
Total
2010
226.3
130.7
234.1
591.1
2011
399.3
83.9
274
757.2
2012
628.1
105.3
291.9
1,025.30
2013
303.7
205.5
173.7
682.9
2014
370.7
55.6
132.6
558.9
Annual Exploration Budgets by Target
Copper
Gold
Other
Zinc-Lead
Total
2010
35.8%
33.3%
14.8%
16.1%
591.1
2011
53.5%
40.3%
19.6%
14.7%
757.2
2012
59.5%
75.3%
24.7%
13.9%
1,025.30
2013
51.4%
34.8%
19.5%
9.8%
682.9
2014
42.7%
24.9%
18.5%
8.5%
558.9
Annual Exploration Budgets by Stage
Grassroots
Late Stage & Feasibility
Minesite
Total
2010
36.4%
44.5%
19.1%
591.1
2011
36.7%
69.6%
21.9%
757.2
2012
40.1%
96.1%
37.3%
1,025.30
2013
39.7%
48.3%
27.5%
682.9
2014
31.9%
31.5%
31.2%
558.9
Annual Exploration Budgets by Company Type
Major
Intermediate
Junior
Total
2010
38.3%
22.1%
39.6%
591.1
2011
67.6%
14.2%
46.4%
757.2
2012
106.3%
17.8%
49.4%
1,025.30
2013
51.4%
34.8%
29.4%
682.9
2014
62.7%
9.4%
22.4%
558.9
Isac Burstein, Top Mining Junior, Nov 2004, Basado en cifras de SNL Metals Economics Group
Peru enjoys a very dynamic exploration
community and efficient mining cadastre
Mineral Discoveries
Number of significant discoveries made
Non-Bulk discoveries World: 1975-2013
Number of
Discoveries
150
Moderate Discoveries
Major Discoveries
Giant Discoveries
100
50
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries.
>6 Moz Au, >125 kt U3O8, >1 Mt Ni, >5 Mt Cu equiv
Giant
Major
>1 Moz Au, >25 kt U3O8, > 100 kt Ni, >1 Mt Cu equiv
Moderate >0.1 Moz Au, >5 kt U3O8, >10 kt Ni, >0.1 Mt Cu-equiv
MinEx Consulting
2005
2010
2015
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration
8
Number of significant discoveries made
Non-Bulk discoveries World: 1975-2013
Number of
Discoveries
150
100
On average 60-70
discoveries are
made each year in
the World
Estimated Unreported Discoveries
Moderate Discoveries
Major Discoveries
Giant Discoveries
Need to adjust for the
fact that it takes time to
report a discovery and
drill it out
50
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries.
MinEx Consulting
2005
2010
2015
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration
9
Number of discoveries made by Commodity
Moderate+Major+Giant discoveries in the World: 1975-2013
Number of
Discoveries
Estimated
Other
Uranium
Base Metals
150
Gold
100
288
12%
130
5%
701
28%
1366
55%
2485
100%
50
Over half of the
discoveries were
GOLD
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries.
MinEx Consulting
2005
2010
2015
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration
10
Number of discoveries made by Company Type
Moderate+Major+Giant discoveries in the Western World: 1975-2013
Number of
Discoveries
150
Estimated
Unknown
Other
100
State Owned Co
50
Prospectors
Junior Companies
Moderate Producers
0
1975
Major Companies
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Note: Figures are adjusted for shared discoveries
Western World only. Excludes discoveries made in FSU, Eastern Europe and China
Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries.
MinEx Consulting
2005
2010
2015
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration
11
Percentage of discoveries made by Company Type
Moderate+Major+Giant discoveries in the Western World: 1975-2013
Number of
Discoveries
100%
Junior Companies now
account for 50-60% of all
discoveries in the
Western World
80%
60%
Other
State Owned Co
40%
Prospectors
Junior Companies
20%
0%
1975
Moderate Producers
Major Companies
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Note: Figures are adjusted for shared discoveries
Western World only. Excludes discoveries made in the FSU, Eastern Europe and China
Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries.
MinEx Consulting
2005
2010
2015
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration
12
Until recently discovery rate moved in-line
with exploration expenditures
Non-Bulk exploration spend and discoveries World: 1975-2013
Number
150
100
Huge increase in spend,
but no corresponding
increase in the number of
discoveries
2013 US$ Billion
$30
Exploration
Spend
$20
Number of
Discoveri es
Est
50
0
1975
Discovery performance
has been affected by
higher input costs
(labour, drilling and
$10
admin).
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Note: Based on Moderate, Major and Giant discoveries.
Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries and expenditures.
MinEx Consulting
2010
2015
Is partly offset by shift to
Brownfield Exploration
(but this delivers smaller$0
sized discoveries)
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration
14
Discovery costs are rising
Unit cost per for a moderate-sized Gold or Base Metal discovery in the World
Average Cost per discovery (2013 US$m)
GOLD
Un
Uniitt didiscscoovvereryy
ccoosststs
Weighted Average for
~$150m
the
the
2000-2009 = $77m
Weighted Average for
1980-89 = $44m
l asastt de
deccade
ade
Estimated
~$180m
BASE METALS
Weighted Average for
araree
Weighted Average for
2000-2009 = $64m
IfIf yourur explxplo
oratio
tion
n
bu
budgdgeett i ss $5
$5m
m then
then
the
the oodd
ddss ooff m
makiakingng
aa ((m
moode
desst)t) didiscscoovvereryy
i nn aa ggiivven
en yyeaearr
1980-89 = $23m
Estimated
Note: Discoveries are for deposits >0.1 Moz Au or >0.1 Mt Cu-eq
Data from 2005 onwards have been adjusted for unreported deposits
MinEx Consulting
hahavvee do
doub
ublled
ed i nn
Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration
l essess than
than
1 in 30
30
Exploration is a highactivity
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
15
Significant discoveries in the World: 2004-2013
Saskatchewan
(Uranium)
Carparthian Belt
Alaska/Yukon
Northern
Ontario
China & Far
East Russia
SW USA/ Mexico
Latin America
Giant
Major
Moderate
West Africa
Central Africa
Base
Au Metal U3 O8 Other
Australia
Ten current
“Hot Spots”
N = 605
Note: Excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries.
Note: “Moderate” >100koz Au, >10kt Ni, >100Kt Cu equiv, 250kt Zn+Pb, >5kt U3O8
“Major”
>1Moz Au, >100kt Ni, >1Mt Cu equiv, 2.5Mt Zn+Pb, >25kt U3O8
“Giant”
>6Moz Au, >1Mt Ni, >5Mt Cu equiv, 12Mt Zn+Pb, >125kt U3O8
MinEx Consulting
605 deposits
found in the last
decade
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration
21
Junior Financing
Cash Reserves and Expenditures have dropped dramatically
MEDIAN Australian Junior Exploration Company : 1998-June 2014
During a downturn,
“in-field” exploration &
development
expenditures are cut the
most
2013 A$ Million pa
Cash Reserves
Cash
Reserves
are at an
all-time low
Exploration
& Development
Admin
costs tend
to be
“fixed”
Administration
Net Other
Note: Survey based on a sample of 125 junior exploration companies listed on the ASX between 1998-2014
“Net Other” includes production and other costs less interest income, mine revenue,
Government Assistance and R&D tax credits
Quarterly spend data has been multiplied by 4x to produce an annualised spend rate
MinEx Consulting
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
based on Quarterly Reports to the ASX
Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration
23
The lack of cash is of main concern to those
junior companies with low market caps
Cash Reserves (A$ Million)
Compnaies can always raise cash by
issuing new shares ….. but
that’s
difficult if the market cap low
is
There are some
companies where
Mkt Cap < Cash !!
Market Cap (A$ Million) as at 14 Sept 2014
Note: Cash reserves (as at March-June 2014) for 1980 publicly listed Junior Explorers.
Excludes companies with annual revenues >A$1m.
Based on ExRate of A$1.00 = C$1.00 = US$0.90
MinEx Consulting
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration
25
Junior Explorers with very small market-caps
are at most risk of failing
Cumulative Number
100%
Other Exchange
Exchanges
Other
TSX/TSE
ASX
80%
60%
Mkt
Mkt Cap
<A$0.5m
40%
Depending on
the
jurisdiction
5-30% of
Juniors are at risk of
going under
20%
ASX
1%
TSX
12%
Other
20%
<A$1m
5%
26%
30%
<$A$2m
17%
42%
48%
0%
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
Market Cap (A$ Million) as at 14 Sept 2014
Note: Based on an analysis for 1980 publicly listed Junior Explorers - 1258 on the TSE/TSX, 589 on the ASX
and 133 on other exchanges (such as the CSE, NYSE, AIM, NEC, NZE,OTC and NEC and Pink Sheets).
Based on ExRate of A$1.00 = C$1.00 = US$0.90
MinEx Consulting
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration
26
Mining & Exploration Challenges
• Urgently adopt a long-term approach to the mining industry
• Mining will still be for several decades a solid base for the economic
development of the country
• Guarantee the implementation of future copper producers in Peru
• Increase investment in mineral exploration to expand reserves and resources
and discovery of new deposits.
• Promoting mineral exploration is essential to increase both metal production
and long-term resources
• Ensure that initial exploration projects can become mining operations
• Both financial and technical incentives are required
• Excessive social-environmental barriers have to be removed to allow the
development of a modern, competitive, responsible and sustainable mining
industry
Mining & Exploration Challenges
• Despite of the effort of the government and the MINEM to reduce
unnecessary environmental bureaucracy, other environmental instances
have not changed their anti-mining attitude
• Companies, INGEMMET and academia urgently need to joint efforts for a
sound scientific and technical development of the mining industry
• Technical improvements are needed to promote exploration:
– INGEMMET offers 1:100,000 and 1:50,000 scale regional maps covering the
whole of the country and most of the territory is also covered by drainage
geochemical sampling.
– Regional geophysical surveys (magnetic and radiometric) are insufficient.
– As exploration matures, the need to improve, innovate and implement new
geophysical exploration methods will increase.
– Radiometric age data is extensive, but still needs to be expanded.
– Isotopic studies useful to distinguish most productive mineralized systems and
to identify mineralization sources are still very limited.
– Studies of magmatic arcs related to mineralized systems are insufficient.

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