Minería y exploración en Perú: situación y perspectivas
Transcripción
Minería y exploración en Perú: situación y perspectivas
Minería y exploración en Perú: situación y perspectivas M. Cardozo Febrero 05, 2015 Jueves Minero Instituto de Ingenieros de Minas del Perú Content • Metal prices • Cost and margin • Production • Exploration • Mineral discoveries • Junior financing Metal Prices Precios del Oro y la Plata $1238 $1379 $1238 military and political concerns about Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2014. $1142 US economic recovery leds to US Dollar strenghtening $1265 Since November 2014, oil price drops offsetting US Dollar influence $18.25 $17.25 $16.24 $15.71 Copper Spot Price 60 days 6 months 1 year 5 years Copper Storage Zinc Spot Price 60 days 6 months 1 year 5 years Zinc LME Storage Metal prices Recent and Forecast Commodity Prices Cash Price (26-Dec14) Aluminum ($0.93 / lb) Copper ($2.89 / lb) Lead ($0.84 / lb) Nickel ($6.93 / lb) Zinc ($0.98 / lb) Gold ($1196 / oz) Palladium ($815 / oz) Platinum ($1212 / oz) Silver ($16.09 / oz) Uranium ($36.25 / lb) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E $0.99 $3.43 $0.97 $9.91 $0.98 $1,226 $528 $1,611 $20.24 $45.97 $1.09 $4.00 $1.09 $10.38 $1.00 $1,571 $733 $1,719 $35.29 $56.32 $0.92 $3.61 $0.94 $7.95 $0.88 $1,668 $643 $1,549 $31.13 $48.97 $0.84 $3.33 $0.97 $6.81 $0.87 $1,411 $725 $1,485 $23.82 $40.42 $0.87 $3.13 $0.98 $7.93 $0.98 $1,279 $825 $1,460 $19.91 $34.51 $0.93 $3.12 $1.00 $8.83 $1.07 $1,275 $864 $1,450 $19.70 $44.39 $0.98 $3.18 $1.01 $9.08 $1.14 $1,296 $879 $1,509 $20.26 $51.20 $1.03 $3.25 $1.00 $9.18 $1.17 $1,275 $878 $1,528 $20.34 $59.51 $1.13 $3.28 $0.99 $9.36 $1.16 $1,282 $919 $1,526 $20.24 $64.71 Base metal prices are LME cash prices quoted in US$ per lb. Precious metal prices are London spot prices quoted in US$ per oz. William Matlack Scarsdale Equities LLC Kitco, Dec 29th, 2014 Volatile metal prices • ¿Se terminó el ciclo de los altos precios de los metales? • ¿Quién maneja los precios…oferta vs. demanda o percepción/especulación? Cost and margin En 2013, de acuerdo con datos de la Comisión Chilena del Cobre (Cochilco), producir una libra de cobre en el país (Chile) costó US$2,50, por sobre el promedio mundial (US$2,38). Las cifras están medidas en dólares de cada año y corresponden al costo C3, que incluye costo directo de caja más depreciación más intereses y costos indirectos y deduce el crédito por venta de subproductos. La tendencia al alza en costos en la minería chilena, no ha logrado detenerse del todo, según grafica un reciente informe internacional sobre esta industria en Latinoamérica, preparado por Scotiabank GBM. En su última estimación del cash cost C1 para el segundo trimestre –sobre costos de producción, que incluye remuneraciones, materiales, energía, servicios de terceros, gastos de refinación y ventas y créditos por subproductos–, el conjunto de mineras del país (Chile) aumentaron en 12% este indicador, pasando de US$ 1,68 la libra de cobre el tercer trimestre del año pasado, a US$ 1,88. Este nivel es mayor al que tienen en general los yacimientos de cobre en el mundo, que se estiman estarán ubicadas en US$ 1,73 la libra para el segundo trimestre. Pero deja a las operaciones nacionales (chilenas) muy lejanas al promedio en Perú, que llega a US$ 1,27, según el documento. De todos modos, Peru no ha estado exento de esta tendencia alcista. Entre los dos periodos analizados por el banco de inversión, su cash cost creció 23%, mientras a nivel mundial fue de sólo un 7%. Notas tomadas de artículos diversos de Mining Press de Junio 2014 Las compañías mineras de oro siguen vigilando muy de cerca el aumento de los costes de producción, más concretamente en aquellas minas que llevan años de explotación y cuyas reservas más cercanas a la superficie se van agotando. En el Informe de SNL Metals & Mining denominado “Estrategias para el Cambio de las Reservas de Oro”, se hace notar como el principal de los problemas el aumento de los costes medios de producción desde 560 dólares por onza en los 2000 hasta 2.300 dólares por onza en la actualidad. Las expectativas de crecimiento de los costes son aún mayores para 2014. El análisis se basa en una muestra de 192 minas de oro con una capacidad de producción de 50.000 onzas anuales. De forma sistemática, la media de tres años de los costes de capital de las minas está por encima de los precios internacionales del oro. Desde 2006, los mineros se embarcaron en proyectos que en muchos casos eran faraónicos y que, al final, han tenido que abandonar por falta de rentabilidad. Al calor de la subida de los precios, las mineras diversificaron sus negocios afrontando subidas importantes en los costes de extracción. Para 2014, se espera un incremento del coste medio hasta 2.400 dólares por onza mientras que para 2015, este coste bajaría hasta los 1.900 dólares por onza. Con respecto a los costes operativos directamente relacionados con la producción, desde 2004 se han incrementado en términos reales un 190% pasando a ser de 702 dólares por onza en 2013. Costs increasing…margins reducing • ¿Estamos manejando adecuadamente los costos? • ¿Hay un problema de productividad? • ¿Cut-off y ley promedio apropiados? • ¿Capex excesivos? Production Moving from the “gold rush” into a “copper boom” 8 Gold Ounces (millions) 1st PRODUCER OF GOLD IN LATIN AMERICA AND 6th 6 4 IN THE WORLD 2 - Millions of tons of copper 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 5 Copper Tons (millions) 4 3 3rd LARGEST WORLD’s PRODUCER OF COPPER WILL SOON RECOVER ITS 2nd POSITION 2 WILL DRASTICALLY REDUCE DIFFERENCE WITH CHILE 1 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Producción de Oro en el Perú Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types actual 8 Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types actual forecast 7.3 6.7 6.6 6 6 5 5 3.7 Moz 4 6.7 7 3 5.5 4.1 3 2 2 1 1 - 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Alluvial Gold Other IOCG Skarn Porphyry Mesothermal veins LS Epithermal HS Epithermal 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Alluvial Gold Skarn LS Epithermal Other Porphyry HS Epithermal IOCG Mesothermal veins M. Cardozo et al, 2008 M. Cardozo et al, 2006 Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types actual 8 7 forecast 6.7 5.9 6 Millions Oz Gold 6.5 4 Moz Million Ounces of Gold 7 forecast 8 5.5 5 5.3 5.2 4 3 2 1 1990 1992 1994 1996 Alluvial Gold Skarn HS Epithermal M. Cardozo et al, 2012 1998 2000 2002 2004 Other Porphyry 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Mesothermal veins LS Epithermal (Estimated in May 2012) J. Acosta et al, 2014 (Estimated in May 2014) Estimate by May 2014 Improbable drop, traditional mines can sustain up to 160-170 MM oz/year From: Acosta et al, May 2014 Copper Mines and Projects in Peru Actual and Planned Annual Production Mines Projects Metric Tons of Fine Copper X 1000 Río Blanco 1-10 10-50 50-200 Actual/Planned Annual Production Metric Tons of Fine Copper X 1000 600 200-500 Cerro Corona La Granja Minas Conga Michiquillay El Galeno Magistral Antamina 500 400 300 Toromocho 200 100 0 Las Bambas Los Chancas Tintaya Mina Justa Zafranal Cerro Verde Tía María Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013 Quechua Cuajone Quellaveco Toquepala Peruvian Copper Production 1998-2025 Metric Tons of Fine Copper (Millions) 6.0 5.0 Estimate by July 2014 forecast actual Río Blanco Cañariaco Michiquillay Haquira Zafranal Miocene Porphyry Belt Los La Granja Calatos Minas Conga Los Chancas 4.2 Eocene-Oligogocene Porphyry Belt 4.0 El Galeno 4.1 Magistral Quellaveco +Cerro Verde Paleocene-Eocene Porphyry Belt Other type of deposits 3.0 3.4 Tía María Toromocho Mina Justa Las Bambas Constancia Quechua 2.5 +Toquepala 2.2 2.0 +Cuajone 1.5 1.0 0.0 4.9 Peru Copper Production and Yearly Growth Rates (actual until 2013 + forecast until 2021) Estimate by July 2015 Gold and Silver Content of Porphyry Deposits PORPHYRY BELT PROJECT Au g/t Ag g/t Mo % Miocene N-Peru Cerro Corona Minas Conga Galeno Michiquillay La Granja Magistral Cañariaco La Arena 1.00 0.71 0.12 0.05-0.10 0.04 2.05 2.50 2.00-4.00 3.70 0.014 0.01-0.02 Miocene Central Peru Eocene-Oligocene Apurimac Paleocene SW-Peru 0.06 0.27 Toromocho Antamina Las Bambas Cotabambas Antapaccay Los Chancas Antilla Haquira Constancia Los Calatos Cuajone Toquepala Quellaveco Cerro Verde Projected yearly production from pophyries/skarns of the 3 main copper porphyry belts by 2021 ? % of total gold and silver by 2021 ? 0.060 1.6 0.70 6.90 10.3 4.74 2.74 1.51 0.08 0.23 0.13 0.04 0.04 0.05 1.79 3.60 0.03 0.03 3.10 2.30 2.19 1.46 Gold (millions of ounces) 0.004 0.021 0.018 0.001 0.010 0.040 0.009 0.001 0.011 0.021 0.020 0.020 0.023 0.010 Silver Molybdenum (millions of (thousands of ounces) tons) 1.6 40 40 -50 30% 25% 100% Historic Cumulative Copper Production in Peru Total Production in Peru 28 MMT (100%) Production from main porphyry belts 23 MMT (82%) Other Cu belts: 2 MMT (7%) Other non-Cu belts: 3 MMT (11%) 5 MMT 18% Antamina 4.1 MMT 2 MMT Metallogenic belts 7% Miocene porphyry belt Eocene-oligocene porphyry belt Paleocene porphyry belt Tintaya 2.0 MMT 16 MMT Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013 57% Toquepala 6.7 MMT Copper Resources and Reserves in the Main Porphyry Belts in Peru Total reported resources in Peru 218 MMT (100%) Resources from porphyry belts 192 MMT (88%) Other Cu belts: 11 MMT (5%) Other non-Cu belts: 15 MMT (7%) 85 MMT 39% 44 MMT Metallogenic belts 20% Miocene porphyry belt Eocene-oligocene porphyry belt Paleocene porphyry belt 63 MMT Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013 29% Mineral Production • • • • • • • • • Gold production decreasing. Extracted resources are not being replace. Very few significant discoveries lately Silver will increase production levels if copper porphyries are developed Zinc and lead will continue increasing moderately. New projects required to accelerate development Porphyry copper producers contribute significantly to Au, Ag and Mo production Copper potential is one of the largest in the world Copper developments are being delayed due to social and political issues Uncertainty increasing, can we really get up to 5 million tonnes of Cu production in the next 8-10 years? Chile taking advantage: Long-term view and policy, sustained technical and commercial/market research Peru + Chile could produce 57% (>13 tons) of world’s copper Peru and Chile Copper Production to 2021 (actual + forecast) Peru + Chile 13m 57% Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013 Exploration Worldwide Exploration vs. Relative Metals Price © SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012 Worldwide Exploration Budgets by Target (as percent of annual total) © SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012 Worldwide Base Metals Exploration by Target (as percent of annual total) © SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012 Worldwide Exploration by Stage (as percent of annual total) Own projection (dashed lines) Not quantitative, rough tendencies © SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012 Exploration expenditures: World by Commodity : 1975-2013 Other - Bulk 1% Percentage of total spend 100% 80% Diamonds 60% Base Metals (Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb) 40% 11% Coal 14% Iron Ore 12% 24% 33% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Other – Non Bulk 2% 4% Gold 20% 0% 1975 Major increase in spend on Bulk Minerals Gold continues to be the main target 2010 Sources: MinEx Consulting estimates © September 2014, based on data from ABS, NRCan, MLR (China), OECD and SNL MEG MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 5 Inversión en exploración a nivel mundial Exploration expenditures: World China spends more on exploration than any other country in the World by Region : 1975-2013 Percentage of total spend 2% 7% 100% 17% 80% 2% 15% 60% 6% 22% 40% 6% 20% 11% 12% 0% 1975 1980 1985 1990 Note: Includes spend on Bulk Minerals “Rest of World” refers to, Mongolia, Middle East and South West Asia (including India and Pakistan) MinEx Consulting 1995 2000 2005 2010 Rest of World FSU + E Europe China Western Europe Africa Pacific / SE Asia Latin America USA Canada Australia Can+USA+Aust market share has halved in the last 2 decades Sources: MinEx Consulting estimates © September 2014, based on data from ABS, NRCan, MLR (China), OECD and SNL MEG Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 6 Exploration Investment 4.9% 7.7% 4.9% 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% 4.9% 4.2% 4.8% 4.5% 4.9% 6 1,200 % of Worldwide Investment 1,025 1,000 Peru 6 800 600 4 400 6 200 120 293 5 6 5 720 570 6 3 5 588 591 7 757 683 Peru WW Ranking 7 559 357 Investment US$ Million 257 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 25,000 21,500 20,000 18,158 Worldwide 15,000 12,100 11,330 10,000 5,000 2,440 11,400 8,400 7,930 3,790 Investment US$ Million 15,200 14,474 5,290 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Inversión en exploración en el Perú Annual Exploration Budgets by Target Copper Gold Other Zinc-Lead Total 2010 211.7 196.8 87.3 95.3 591.1 2011 316.2 238.2 115.7 87.1 757.2 2012 351.5 445.3 146.1 82.4 1,025.30 2013 303.7 205.5 115.5 58.2 682.9 2014 252.4 147.3 109.2 50 558.9 Annual Exploration Budgets by Stage Grassroots Late Stage & Feasibility Minesite Total 2010 214.9 263.2 113 591.1 2011 216.8 411.2 129.2 757.2 2012 237.1 567.8 220.4 1,025.30 2013 234.7 285.4 162.8 682.9 2014 188.4 186 184.5 558.9 Annual Exploration Budgets by Company Type Major Intermediate Junior Total 2010 226.3 130.7 234.1 591.1 2011 399.3 83.9 274 757.2 2012 628.1 105.3 291.9 1,025.30 2013 303.7 205.5 173.7 682.9 2014 370.7 55.6 132.6 558.9 Annual Exploration Budgets by Target Copper Gold Other Zinc-Lead Total 2010 35.8% 33.3% 14.8% 16.1% 591.1 2011 53.5% 40.3% 19.6% 14.7% 757.2 2012 59.5% 75.3% 24.7% 13.9% 1,025.30 2013 51.4% 34.8% 19.5% 9.8% 682.9 2014 42.7% 24.9% 18.5% 8.5% 558.9 Annual Exploration Budgets by Stage Grassroots Late Stage & Feasibility Minesite Total 2010 36.4% 44.5% 19.1% 591.1 2011 36.7% 69.6% 21.9% 757.2 2012 40.1% 96.1% 37.3% 1,025.30 2013 39.7% 48.3% 27.5% 682.9 2014 31.9% 31.5% 31.2% 558.9 Annual Exploration Budgets by Company Type Major Intermediate Junior Total 2010 38.3% 22.1% 39.6% 591.1 2011 67.6% 14.2% 46.4% 757.2 2012 106.3% 17.8% 49.4% 1,025.30 2013 51.4% 34.8% 29.4% 682.9 2014 62.7% 9.4% 22.4% 558.9 Isac Burstein, Top Mining Junior, Nov 2004, Basado en cifras de SNL Metals Economics Group Peru enjoys a very dynamic exploration community and efficient mining cadastre Mineral Discoveries Number of significant discoveries made Non-Bulk discoveries World: 1975-2013 Number of Discoveries 150 Moderate Discoveries Major Discoveries Giant Discoveries 100 50 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. >6 Moz Au, >125 kt U3O8, >1 Mt Ni, >5 Mt Cu equiv Giant Major >1 Moz Au, >25 kt U3O8, > 100 kt Ni, >1 Mt Cu equiv Moderate >0.1 Moz Au, >5 kt U3O8, >10 kt Ni, >0.1 Mt Cu-equiv MinEx Consulting 2005 2010 2015 Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 8 Number of significant discoveries made Non-Bulk discoveries World: 1975-2013 Number of Discoveries 150 100 On average 60-70 discoveries are made each year in the World Estimated Unreported Discoveries Moderate Discoveries Major Discoveries Giant Discoveries Need to adjust for the fact that it takes time to report a discovery and drill it out 50 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. MinEx Consulting 2005 2010 2015 Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 9 Number of discoveries made by Commodity Moderate+Major+Giant discoveries in the World: 1975-2013 Number of Discoveries Estimated Other Uranium Base Metals 150 Gold 100 288 12% 130 5% 701 28% 1366 55% 2485 100% 50 Over half of the discoveries were GOLD 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. MinEx Consulting 2005 2010 2015 Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 10 Number of discoveries made by Company Type Moderate+Major+Giant discoveries in the Western World: 1975-2013 Number of Discoveries 150 Estimated Unknown Other 100 State Owned Co 50 Prospectors Junior Companies Moderate Producers 0 1975 Major Companies 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Note: Figures are adjusted for shared discoveries Western World only. Excludes discoveries made in FSU, Eastern Europe and China Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. MinEx Consulting 2005 2010 2015 Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 11 Percentage of discoveries made by Company Type Moderate+Major+Giant discoveries in the Western World: 1975-2013 Number of Discoveries 100% Junior Companies now account for 50-60% of all discoveries in the Western World 80% 60% Other State Owned Co 40% Prospectors Junior Companies 20% 0% 1975 Moderate Producers Major Companies 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Note: Figures are adjusted for shared discoveries Western World only. Excludes discoveries made in the FSU, Eastern Europe and China Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. MinEx Consulting 2005 2010 2015 Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 12 Until recently discovery rate moved in-line with exploration expenditures Non-Bulk exploration spend and discoveries World: 1975-2013 Number 150 100 Huge increase in spend, but no corresponding increase in the number of discoveries 2013 US$ Billion $30 Exploration Spend $20 Number of Discoveri es Est 50 0 1975 Discovery performance has been affected by higher input costs (labour, drilling and $10 admin). 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Note: Based on Moderate, Major and Giant discoveries. Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries and expenditures. MinEx Consulting 2010 2015 Is partly offset by shift to Brownfield Exploration (but this delivers smaller$0 sized discoveries) Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 14 Discovery costs are rising Unit cost per for a moderate-sized Gold or Base Metal discovery in the World Average Cost per discovery (2013 US$m) GOLD Un Uniitt didiscscoovvereryy ccoosststs Weighted Average for ~$150m the the 2000-2009 = $77m Weighted Average for 1980-89 = $44m l asastt de deccade ade Estimated ~$180m BASE METALS Weighted Average for araree Weighted Average for 2000-2009 = $64m IfIf yourur explxplo oratio tion n bu budgdgeett i ss $5 $5m m then then the the oodd ddss ooff m makiakingng aa ((m moode desst)t) didiscscoovvereryy i nn aa ggiivven en yyeaearr 1980-89 = $23m Estimated Note: Discoveries are for deposits >0.1 Moz Au or >0.1 Mt Cu-eq Data from 2005 onwards have been adjusted for unreported deposits MinEx Consulting hahavvee do doub ublled ed i nn Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration l essess than than 1 in 30 30 Exploration is a highactivity Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 15 Significant discoveries in the World: 2004-2013 Saskatchewan (Uranium) Carparthian Belt Alaska/Yukon Northern Ontario China & Far East Russia SW USA/ Mexico Latin America Giant Major Moderate West Africa Central Africa Base Au Metal U3 O8 Other Australia Ten current “Hot Spots” N = 605 Note: Excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. Note: “Moderate” >100koz Au, >10kt Ni, >100Kt Cu equiv, 250kt Zn+Pb, >5kt U3O8 “Major” >1Moz Au, >100kt Ni, >1Mt Cu equiv, 2.5Mt Zn+Pb, >25kt U3O8 “Giant” >6Moz Au, >1Mt Ni, >5Mt Cu equiv, 12Mt Zn+Pb, >125kt U3O8 MinEx Consulting 605 deposits found in the last decade Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 21 Junior Financing Cash Reserves and Expenditures have dropped dramatically MEDIAN Australian Junior Exploration Company : 1998-June 2014 During a downturn, “in-field” exploration & development expenditures are cut the most 2013 A$ Million pa Cash Reserves Cash Reserves are at an all-time low Exploration & Development Admin costs tend to be “fixed” Administration Net Other Note: Survey based on a sample of 125 junior exploration companies listed on the ASX between 1998-2014 “Net Other” includes production and other costs less interest income, mine revenue, Government Assistance and R&D tax credits Quarterly spend data has been multiplied by 4x to produce an annualised spend rate MinEx Consulting Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 based on Quarterly Reports to the ASX Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 23 The lack of cash is of main concern to those junior companies with low market caps Cash Reserves (A$ Million) Compnaies can always raise cash by issuing new shares ….. but that’s difficult if the market cap low is There are some companies where Mkt Cap < Cash !! Market Cap (A$ Million) as at 14 Sept 2014 Note: Cash reserves (as at March-June 2014) for 1980 publicly listed Junior Explorers. Excludes companies with annual revenues >A$1m. Based on ExRate of A$1.00 = C$1.00 = US$0.90 MinEx Consulting Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 25 Junior Explorers with very small market-caps are at most risk of failing Cumulative Number 100% Other Exchange Exchanges Other TSX/TSE ASX 80% 60% Mkt Mkt Cap <A$0.5m 40% Depending on the jurisdiction 5-30% of Juniors are at risk of going under 20% ASX 1% TSX 12% Other 20% <A$1m 5% 26% 30% <$A$2m 17% 42% 48% 0% $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20 Market Cap (A$ Million) as at 14 Sept 2014 Note: Based on an analysis for 1980 publicly listed Junior Explorers - 1258 on the TSE/TSX, 589 on the ASX and 133 on other exchanges (such as the CSE, NYSE, AIM, NEC, NZE,OTC and NEC and Pink Sheets). Based on ExRate of A$1.00 = C$1.00 = US$0.90 MinEx Consulting Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 26 Mining & Exploration Challenges • Urgently adopt a long-term approach to the mining industry • Mining will still be for several decades a solid base for the economic development of the country • Guarantee the implementation of future copper producers in Peru • Increase investment in mineral exploration to expand reserves and resources and discovery of new deposits. • Promoting mineral exploration is essential to increase both metal production and long-term resources • Ensure that initial exploration projects can become mining operations • Both financial and technical incentives are required • Excessive social-environmental barriers have to be removed to allow the development of a modern, competitive, responsible and sustainable mining industry Mining & Exploration Challenges • Despite of the effort of the government and the MINEM to reduce unnecessary environmental bureaucracy, other environmental instances have not changed their anti-mining attitude • Companies, INGEMMET and academia urgently need to joint efforts for a sound scientific and technical development of the mining industry • Technical improvements are needed to promote exploration: – INGEMMET offers 1:100,000 and 1:50,000 scale regional maps covering the whole of the country and most of the territory is also covered by drainage geochemical sampling. – Regional geophysical surveys (magnetic and radiometric) are insufficient. – As exploration matures, the need to improve, innovate and implement new geophysical exploration methods will increase. – Radiometric age data is extensive, but still needs to be expanded. – Isotopic studies useful to distinguish most productive mineralized systems and to identify mineralization sources are still very limited. – Studies of magmatic arcs related to mineralized systems are insufficient.