Unemployment report – Marginal improvement in October

Unemployment report – Marginal improvement in October

Economic Research
Mexico
Unemployment report – Marginal
improvement in October



November 25, 2013
www.banorte.com
www.ixe.com.mx
@analisis_fundam
Unemployment rate (October): 5.01%; Banorte-Ixe: 5%; consensus:
5.15% (range of estimates: 4.9% to 5.35%); previous: 5.29%
Gabriel Casillas
Part-time workers: 8.91% (previous: 8.3%); Participation rate: 59.6%
(previous: 58.9%)
Delia Paredes
In seasonally adjusted terms, the unemployment rate declined
0.05%pts to 4.91%
Miguel Calvo

The marginal recovery in the unemployment rate comes after
September's figure, which was distorted by the impact of the storms
Miguel and Ingrid

In our opinion, unemployment levels will remain around 5% in 4Q13
Chief Economist and Head of Research
[email protected]
Executive Director of Economic Analysis
[email protected]
Economist, Regional and Sectorial
[email protected]
The unemployment rate stood at 5.01% in October (previous: 5.29%).
INEGI’s figure is in line with our 5% estimate (consensus: 5.15%), and implies
a 0.03%-pts decrease over the figure reported in Oct’12. Similarly, in seasonally
adjusted terms, the unemployment rate posted a 0.05%-pts monthly decrease
reaching 4.91% in the tenth month of the year. Moreover, the participation rate
increased by 0.38%-pts, while the part-time workers rate increased 0.16%-pts,
reaching 8.9%.
INEGI’s employment report: October 2013
Oct-13
Oct-12
Jan-Oct, '13
Unemployment rate
5.0
5.0
5.0
Jan-Oct, '12
5.0
Participation rate
59.6
59.2
59.0
59.3
Part-time workers rate
8.9
8.8
8.5
8.7
Employment rate in the informal sector
28.1
28.2
28.4
29.0
Informality rate
59.5
61.0
59.1
60.1
Source: INEGI
INEGI’s employment report: October 2013
Oct-13
Sep-13
Difference
seasonally adjusted
4.9
5.0
-0.05
trend series
4.9
4.9
0.00
seasonally adjusted
59.2
58.9
0.33
trend series
59.1
59.1
0.06
seasonally adjusted
8.56
8.2
0.37
trend series
8.68
8.6
0.10
Unemployment rate
Participation rate
Part-tie workers rate
Source: INEGI
Document for distribution among
public
1
The marginal recovery in the unemployment rate comes after September's
figure, which was distorted by the impact of storms. We believe that the
destruction of roads and highways caused by Ingrid and Manuel probably
hindered polling process during September, particularly in rural areas. In spite
of this, figures show signs of a marginal recovery.
Unemployment rate is edging down slowly. Analyzing the time-series, the
unemployment rate has shown a downward trend in recent months (refer to the
chart below). Similarly, the participation rate has observed an increase over the
same period, which implies that the labor market is improving. Nonetheless, we
have observed a substantial deceleration in formal labor market, during the first
ten months of the year that is likely to come to an end in the coming months.
Unemployment rate
%, trend
5.9
5.7
5.5
5.3
5.1
4.92
4.9
4.7
4.5
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Source: INEGI
In our opinion, unemployment rate will remain around 5% in 4Q13. We
believe that lower growth prospects generated eroded both consumers and
firms’ confidence, which in turn brought lower rates of job creation.
Nevertheless, as economic activity picks up, we expect labor market to gain
momentum. In this context, we believe that the unemployment rate will have
marginal changes during the fourth quarter of 2013.
Disclaimer
The information contained in this document is illustrative and informative so it should not be considered as an advice and/or
recommendation of any kind. BANORTE is not part of any party or political trend.
2
GRUPO FINANCIERO BANORTE S.A.B. de C.V.
Research and Strategy
Gabriel Casillas Olvera
Chief Economist and Head of Research
[email protected]
(55) 4433 - 4695
Economic Analysis
Delia María Paredes Mier
Katia Celina Goya Ostos
Alejandro Cervantes Llamas
Julia Elena Baca Negrete
Livia Honsel
Miguel Alejandro Calvo
Dominguez
Lourdes Calvo Fernández
Raquel Vázquez Godinez
Julieta Alvarez Espinosa
Executive Director of Economic Analysis
Senior Global Economist
Economist, Mexico
Economist, U.S.
Economist, Europe
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
(55) 5268 - 1694
(55) 1670 - 1821
(55) 1670 - 2972
(55) 1670 - 2221
(55) 1670 - 1883
Economist, Regional & Sectorial
[email protected]
(55) 1670 - 2220
Analyst (Edition)
Assistant
Assistant
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
(55) 1103 - 4000 x 2611
(55) 1670 - 2967
(55) 5268 - 1613
Fixed income and FX Strategy
Alejandro Padilla Santana
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Head Strategist – Fixed income and FX
FX Strategist
[email protected]
[email protected]
(55) 1103 - 4043
(55) 1103 - 4046
Equity Strategy
Manuel Jiménez Zaldivar
Victor Hugo Cortes Castro
Marissa Garza Ostos
Marisol Huerta Mondragón
José Itzamna Espitia Hernández
María de la Paz Orozco García
Senior Equity Research Analyst Telecommunications / Media
Equity Research Analyst
Senior Equity Research Analyst – Financials/
Mining/ Chemistry
Equity Research Analyst – Food/Beverages
Equity Research Analyst – Airports /
Infrastructure / Fibras
Analyst
[email protected]
(55) 5004 - 1275
[email protected]
(55) 5004 - 1231
[email protected]
(55) 5004 - 1179
[email protected]
(55) 5268 - 9927
[email protected]
(55) 5004 - 5144
[email protected]
(55) 5268 - 9962
Corporate Debt
Tania Abdul Massih Jacobo
Hugo Armando Gómez Solís
Idalia Yanira Céspedes Jaén
Senior Corporate Debt Analyst
Analyst, Corporate Debt
Analyst, Corporate Debt
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
(55) 5004 - 1405
(55) 5004 - 1340
(55) 5268 - 9937
Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Luis Pietrini Sheridan
Armando Rodal Espinosa
Head of Wholesale Banking
Managing Director – Private Banking
Managing Director – Corporate Banking
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
(55) 5268 - 1659
(55) 5004 - 1453
(81) 8319 - 6895
Victor Antonio Roldan Ferrer
Managing Director – Transactional Banking
[email protected]
(55) 5004 - 1454
Managing Director – Government Banking
[email protected]
(55) 5268 - 1683
Managing Director – Asset Management
[email protected]
(55) 5268 - 9004
Wholesale Banking
Carlos Eduardo Martinez
Gonzalez
René Gerardo Pimentel Ibarrola