Spline climatic model for México

Predicted reduction of suitable climate habitat of
Mexican conifers due to climatic change.
Assisted migration as management option
Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero, Dante Castellanos-Acuña
Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias y Forestales
Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo (UMSNH),
Morelia, Michoacán, México
Gerald E. Rehfeldt
Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service
Moscow, Idaho, USA
Roberto A. Lindig-Cisneros
Centro de Investigación en Ecosistemas, UNAM
Morelia, Michoacán, México
Juan Manuel Ortega-Rodríguez, María Consuelo Marín-Togo and
Xavier Madrigal-Sánchez, Facultad de Biología, UMSNH
Morelia, Michoacán, México
1
Contemporary climate: 1961-1990, ≈ 4000 stations
Spline climatic model using ANUSPLINE
Future climate adjusting each station values by IPCC outputs
2
Sáenz-Romero et al 2010. Climatic Change.
Increment of Temperature (oC)
PROJECTED INCREASE OF TEMPERATRE FOR MÉXICO
Canadian A1B
Canadian A2
Canadian B1
Geophisical Fluids A2
Geophisical Fluids B1
Hadley A2
Hadley B2
Average
5
4
3
2
1
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
Year
3
Sáenz-Romero et al 2010. Climatic Change
Contemporary Mean Annual Temperature
4
Maps made by Pierre Duval, Service canadien des forêts, Quebec, Canada.
Sáenz-Romero et al 2010. Climatic Change.
Canadian Model, Scenario A2
5
6
7
PROJECTED DECREASE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MÉXICO
% Change in Precipitation
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Canadian A1B
Canadian A2
Canadian B1
Geophisical Fluid A2
Geophisical Fluid B1
Hadley A2
Hadley B2
Average
-30
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
Year
8
Sáenz-Romero et al 2010. Climatic Change
ANNUAL
ARIDITY INDEX
1961-1990
2090
9
Michoacán state
Michoacán State
Annual aridity
index
Contemporary
Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve
Year 2090
10
Contemporary climate habitat for Abies religiosa
11
Sáenz-Romero et al 2012. Forest Ecology and Management.
Future climate
12
Abies religiosa, Sanctuary El Rosario
13
Sanctuary El Rosario
14
Sanctuary El Rosario
15
Pinus pseudostrobus
MICHOACÁN STATE
16
MODELING OF SUITABLE CLIMATIC HABITAT FOR Pinus pseudostrobus USING
RANDOM FOREST (average error: 6 %), CONTEMPORARY CLIMATE
17
DECREASE 51 % BY 2030
18
DECREASE 68 % BY 2060
19
DECREASE BY 90 % FOR 2090
20
Pinus psedostrobus, CONTEMPORARY, 2030, 2060 AND 2090
NUEVO SAN JUAN PARANGARICUTIRO, MICHOACÁN
21
FOREST DECLINE AT THE SPECIES LOW ALTITUDINAL LIMIT (2300 masl)
22
Cedrus atlantica, Bous Ikhitane, Marruecos
23
Cortesía de Mátyás Csaba, Univ. de Hungría
FOREST DECLINE AT THE SPECIES LOW ALTITUDINAL LIMIT
24
Mátyás 2010. Nature.
Habitat prediction for Pinus chiapensis and
planning assisted migration (assisted colonization)
Contemporary
climate
25
Hadley, year 2060
Sáenz-Romero et al 2010. Climatic Change.
Assisted migration of Abies religiosa
2060
2030
2090
26
Pinus pseudostrobus
ALTITUDINAL SEED ZONES
SUGESTED SHIFT UPWARDS: 300 M
3000 m
TO REALIGN POPULATIONS
TO PROJECTED CLIMATE 2030
3700 m
3400 m
3100 m
Michoacán state
Sáenz-Romero, et al. 2012. Revista Fitotecnia Mexicana
Next specie:
Pinus devoniana
27
2700 m
Cerro de Pario
COMMON GARDEN
ASSISTED MIGRATION
TEST
Collection:
PROVENANCES
COLLECTED AND TESTED
ALONG AN ALTITUDINAL
GRADIENT
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
28
2400 m La Pila
2100 m El Rosario
TWO YEARS LATER
2700 m Cerro de Pario
29
2400 m La Pila
2100 m El Rosario
Survivorship (2 year-old)
% Survivorship
100
95
Pinus pseudostrobus
Pinus devoniana
90
30
P. pseudostrobus
120

For each 100 m of
shift uppwards, 5 %
of decrease in
growth

If moved > 400,
severe growth
decline
R2 = 0.92
P = 0.0001
110
90
80
70
60
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Altitudinal transfer distance (m)
P. devoniana
120
100
Relative growth in
seedling height
Scaled to local
population performance
(100 %)
Relative growth (%)
Relative growth (%)
100
31
R2 = 0.66
P = 0.0077
80
60
40
20
0
-200
0
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Altitudinal transfer distance (m)
CONCLUSIONS
1.
Climatic change will cause a decoupling between forest tree
populations and the climate for which they are adapted.
2. Decoupling will induce forest decline
3. It is needed to realign the forest populations to the climate for
which they are adapted.
4. Assisted migration is a management option to achieve such
realigment.
5. We suggest a shift 300 m upwards in altitude, to compensate a
projected increment of 1.5 °C in temperature by year 2030.
6. Shift upwards would imply a decrease of growth of 5 % per each
+100 m of altitude.
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Literature
Loya-Rebollar, E., C. Sáenz-Romero,R. A. Lindig-Cisneros, P. Lobitt, J. Villegas-Moreno, and
N. M. Sánchez-Vargas. 2013. Clinal variation in Pinus hartwegii populations and its
application for adaptation to climate change. Silvae Genetica 62(3): 86-95.
Mátyás C. 2010. Forecasts needed for retreating forests. Nature 464:1271.
Sáenz-Romero C, Rehfeldt GE, Crookston NL, Pierre D, St-Amant R, Beaulieu J, Richardson B.
2010. Spline models of contemporary, 2030, 2060 and 2090 climates for Mexico and their
use in understanding climate-plant impacts on vegetation. Climatic Change 102: 595-623.
http://treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/36311
Sáenz-Romero C, Rehfeldt GE, Duval P, Lindig-Cisneros P. 2012. Abies religiosa habitat
prediction in climatic change scenarios and implications for monarch butterfly conservation
in Mexico. Forest Ecology and Management 275:98-106.
http://treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/41323
Sáenz-Romero. C., G. E. Rehfeldt, J. C. Soto-Correa, S. Aguilar-Aguilar, V. Zamarripa-Morales,
and J. López-Upton. 2012. Altitudinal genetic variation among Pinus pseudostrobus
populations from Michoacán, México. Two location shadehouse test results. Revista
Fitotecnia Mexicana 32 (2): 111 – 120.
http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=61023300003
Viveros-Viveros H, Sáenz-Romero C, Vargas-Hernández JJ, López-Upton J, Ramírez-Valverde
G, Santacruz-Varela A. 2009. Altitudinal genetic variation in Pinus hartwegii Lindl. I.:
height growth, shoot phenology, and frost damage in seedlings. Forest Ecology and
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Management 257:836-842.
FUNDING




National Commission for the Study and Use of the Biodiversity (CONABIO,
project JM036)
National Council for Science and Technology and the State of Michoacán
(FOMIX 2009-127128)
Coordinación de la Investigación Científica and PIFI-2013, UMSNH
USDA-Forest Service
Nicholas
Crookston
e-mail / Web
[email protected]
Cuauhtémoc
Sáenz
Julio
Ruiz
Gerald
Rehfeldt
Dennis
Joyce
http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/climate/
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