2014 Draft Guide - Baseball Professor

Transcripción

Baseball Professor
2014 Draft Guide
The Professors:
Bryan Curley & George Fitopoulos
The Teacher’s Assistants:
Adam Nodiff, Eric Broutman, Jake Devereaux, Jon Schorah,
Matt Commins, Matt Serocki, Paul Beck, & Zach Pincince
What you’ll find inside:
(Click on sections to jump to page)
Foreword........................................................................................................................................................3
Reference Tools..............................................................................................................................................
2013 Park Factors by Handedness............................................................................................4
ERA / WHIP Conversion Table....................................................................................................4
Closer Depth Chart.........................................................................................................................5
2013 Position Previews (3-year trends, prospects, rankings, profiles, projections)...............
Catchers..............................................................................................................................................6
First Basemen................................................................................................................................ 15.
Second Basemen.......................................................................................................................... 29
Third Basemen............................................................................................................................... 40.
Shortstops...................................................................................................................................... 51.
Outfielders...................................................................................................................................... 62
Starting Pitchers........................................................................................................................... 83
A Message from the Professors:
It’s hard to believe it’s been a whole year since our last Draft Guide went
out (actually it’s been 11 months), and what a year it’s been! In that
time we’ve redesigned the site’s layout, added six writers to our staff,
and seen our readership grow immensely.
We definitely want to use this space to thank each and every one of you
for visiting our site, downloading our guide, and ensuring that at least
one person sees the product of an immense amount of time and effort.
We’d also like to thank our entire writing staff (alphabetically: Paul
Beck, Eric Broutman, Matt Commins, Jake Devereaux, Adam Nodiff, Jon
Schorah, Matt Serocki, and Zach Pincince) for their constant contributions. When we launched Baseball Professor in December of 2009, we
were able to handle the writing demands of a small site with just two
writers. With our readership growing like crazy, we now have to divert
much of that time to non-writing tasks, and our Elite 8 has supported us
at every turn. Thanks a lot, guys.
Again, thanks for reading our site and downloading this Draft Guide,
and we hope you’ll consider making us one of your preferred sources of
fantasy information!
Bryan Curley & George Fitopoulos
Frequently Asked Questions
How did you come up with your projections?
Over the years we’ve developed and improved a rankings algorithm that
spits out computer generated projections. The algorithm factors in past
performance, rating recent seasons more heavily, and also adjusts for
age and environment (ballpark, lineup, etc.). Because no computer-generated system can perfectly account for all variables (manager changes,
new parks, adding a pitch, injuries or surgery to name a few), we then
go and adjust every projection one by one. It’s a tedious, pain-staking
process, but we’re very proud of our projections, and they’ve performed
very well in past years.
How did you rank players?
All players were ranked based on their CVA, which stands for Category
Value Added.
CVA is our unique player ranking algorithm that quantifies a player’s value based on the specific context of the league for that season. It leverages marginal analysis to give a “bonus” to players that produce at the
extremes of scarcer stats (like HR) and reduces the value of players who
produce at the extremes of more commonly found stats (like SB).
To use our favorite examples, Billy Hamilton is projected by many (including us) to steal at least 80 bases, but not all 80 steals are worth the
same because you probably have other players on your team who can
steal bases as well. Steals 70-80 provide less value because there’s a
greater likelihood that you’re just “piling it on.” Conventional rankings
systems don’t account for this. Ours does.
On the other end of the spectrum is Chris Davis’ 2013 season. In today’s
environment, elite HR hitters are rare and it’s less likely you’re going to
have a lot of other great HR contributors. Because you can’t just turn to
free agency for a 30 HR bat, homers 40-50 and beyond from Davis are
increasingly valuable. With CVA, he’s valued properly.
There is no positional component to CVA at this time.
For a video explanation of how CVA works, check this out.
Why don’t you factor position into your rankings?
It’s impossible to provide one set of rankings that can be applied to
every type of league. Instead, we’ve projected, rated, and ranked players
based on their stat lines without any sort of position factor included.
It’s up to you to decide how shallow or deep a position is based on your
league’s settings and eligibility requirements and to adjust player value
accordingly.
(And of course, we’ll be happy to help!)
To use an example, in a one-catcher 10-team league, catcher is actually
sort of deep. Is our projected Miguel Montero line (.280/15/77) really
that terrible? No, and in a 10-team league he’ll be just fine, so you don’t
need to pounce on an elite catcher early. But in a one-catcher 16-team
league, you’ll hit that drop-off where you’re no longer guaranteed Montero or a comparable option. Instead, someone’s going to have to start
Welington Castillo, Wilson Ramos, or some other catcher with questionable playing time or other concerns. While other positions are exposed
as well, none gets as exposed as catcher.
Why didn’t you do write-ups for relievers?
Reliever value changes so quickly based on bullpen role and reliever’s
are typically susceptible to more volatile year-to-year swings, so that we
didn’t feel it was worth the time (both for us writing and you reading).
For relievers, all you really need is a bullpen depth cheat sheet, which
we’ve included. It shows who’s closing, who’s next in line, and gives
some notes on each bullpen. Don’t overcomplicate things. That’s all you
need.
Do you offer any personalized fantasy advice?
Aside from providing tid-bits of advice to people tweeting at us (@BaseballProf), emailing us, or commenting on one of our posts, we’ll actually
be unveiling some very cool tools that will be available for purchase in
the coming weeks. Don’t worry, they’re nothing expensive, but they’re
very powerful and will simplify the draft research and player valuation
processes. More information will be forthcoming shortly.
You guys are awesome.
Thanks! If you feel like supporting the site with a small donation, you can
do that here. We’ll use the funds to pay our monthly and annual fees
such as site hosting, our live chat service provider, our email service,
future additions to the site, and other various expenses.
Who is Foul Paul?
I dunno, he’s this guy that has a weird, cynical sense of humor. Generally, people seem responsive to what he writes, so we let him do it. Foul
Paul! is a weekly column every Friday during the MLB season.
Do you have a podcast?
No, we have a Profcast! You can listen to it via iTunes here. (We swear
this isn’t blatant, shameless promotion. People ask us this a lot.)
4 | Baseball Professor
2013 Park Factors by Handedness with Avg. HR/FB Rate
How to use this tool:
The table is color-coded to show the Top 10% (in green) and the Bottom 10% (in red) in each column. The numbers are park factors, which tell you
the relative ease in which a RHB/LHB had scoring runs, hitting singles, etc. The scale works on the basis that 100 is league average so 131 = 31%
better than league average and 82 = 18% below league average. The final column shows each park's HR/FB rate over the last three years. This was
calculated from each team's pitcher's home splits and can be used to show which parks you can expect pitchers to post higher HR/FB rates than
usual.
2013 Park Factors by Handedness & Avg. HR/FB Rate
NL West
NL Central
NL East
AL West
AL Central
AL East
Division
Park
Team
Camden Yards
Fenway Park
Rogers Centre
Tropicana Park
Yankee Stadium
Comerica Park
Jacobs Field
Kauffman Stadium
Target Field
U.S. Cellular Field
Angel Stadium of Anaheim
Ballpark at Arlington
Minute Maid Park
Oakland Colliseum
Safeco Field
Turner Field
Citi Field
Citizens Bank Park
Marlins Park
Nationals Park
Busch Stadium
Great American Ballpark
Miller Park
PNC Park
Wrigley Field
AT&T Park
Chase Field
Coors Field
Dodger Stadium
Petco Park
BAL
BOS
TOR
TB
NYY
DET
CLE
KC
MIN
CHW
LAA
TEX
HOU
OAK
SEA
ATL
NYM
PHI
MIA
WAS
STL
CIN
MIL
PIT
CHC
SF
ARI
COL
LAD
SD
R
LHB
115
101
102
91
105
117
101
105
100
104
97
112
101
83
86
103
88
108
92
104
95
108
99
93
106
79
104
140
97
86
1B
RHB
104
111
112
87
110
107
83
103
103
111
88
109
100
98
91
97
88
99
109
99
93
102
116
87
108
83
111
126
86
84
LHB
102
100
93
91
108
106
100
99
103
96
97
109
101
90
99
104
95
96
101
106
105
99
105
96
109
98
96
102
103
98
2B/3B
RHB
102
103
95
99
100
98
98
100
101
105
105
104
97
100
101
101
94
93
102
110
96
99
99
101
100
95
98
110
100
95
LHB
99
144
134
93
94
103
93
106
103
105
103
103
91
94
88
115
85
106
100
101
95
95
96
89
106
107
115
109
89
98
HR
RHB
93
111
131
98
94
117
101
101
107
82
89
101
105
107
97
101
85
100
110
94
93
108
113
92
106
97
110
114
89
96
LHB
131
75
117
101
116
110
118
85
79
118
88
108
111
70
90
101
102
141
65
89
93
139
127
81
98
64
102
128
114
94
RHB
118
109
119
85
122
92
87
88
94
131
86
101
115
92
80
85
109
120
75
91
86
142
134
64
108
74
108
114
102
87
HR/FB
(3-yr avg.)
13.1%
10.4%
13.3%
9.3%
11.7%
8.5%
10.4%
9.0%
10.3%
11.9%
9.6%
11.6%
12.3%
7.9%
9.4%
9.0%
9.8%
10.7%
7.9%
8.7%
8.7%
13.4%
12.7%
8.2%
10.4%
7.7%
11.1%
13.4%
9.8%
9.1%
All park factors courtesy of StatCorner.com
ERA Conversion Table
How to use this tool:
The following chart is useful when trying to determine just how valuable a
reliever's ERA is compared to a starting pitcher due to the large gap in innings
pitched. Just find your reliever's ERA under the 60 IP column and move right
until you reach the desired IP to see what it's equivalent would be.
2014 ERA Conversion Table
60 IP
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
4.00
4.20
4.40
4.60
4.80
90 IP
1.96
2.10
2.24
2.37
2.50
2.64
2.77
2.90
3.03
3.17
3.30
3.43
3.57
3.71
3.83
3.97
4.11
4.23
4.37
4.51
120 IP
2.45
2.55
2.66
2.75
2.85
2.95
3.05
3.15
3.25
3.35
3.45
3.55
3.65
3.75
3.84
3.95
4.06
4.15
4.25
4.36
150 IP
2.74
2.83
2.90
2.98
3.07
3.14
3.22
3.30
3.38
3.46
3.54
3.62
3.70
3.78
3.86
3.94
4.02
4.10
4.18
4.26
180 IP
2.93
3.00
3.08
3.14
3.20
3.27
3.34
3.40
3.47
3.54
3.60
3.67
3.73
3.80
3.87
3.94
4.00
4.07
4.14
4.20
210 IP
3.08
3.13
3.19
3.24
3.30
3.36
3.42
3.48
3.53
3.59
3.65
3.71
3.76
3.82
3.88
3.93
3.99
4.04
4.11
4.17
240 IP
3.18
3.23
3.28
3.33
3.38
3.43
3.48
3.53
3.58
3.63
3.68
3.73
3.78
3.83
3.88
3.93
3.98
4.03
4.08
4.13
@BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com
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2014 Closer Depth Chart
Baseball Professor | 5
Note: In lieu of closer rankings and profiles we are providing you with a comprehensive depth chart with every team's closer, next closer in line, and a sleeper
for saves. Because the position is so volatile from year to year, it's more important to know the whole scope of the closer world rather than who we think it
going to get the first stab at saves. Chances are you know who the 7-10 safe closers are for 2014 and then the rest is a free-for-all for saves. Let the carousel
begin!
2014 Closer Depth Chart
NL West
NL Central
NL East
AL West
AL Central
AL East
Division
Team
Stability
Closer
Baltimore Orioles
4
Tommy Hunter
Boston Red Sox
4
Koji Uehara
New York Yankees
4
David Robertson
Tampa Bay Rays
3
Grant Balfour
Toronto Blue Jays
4
Casey Janssen
Chicago White Sox
3
Nate Jones
Cleveland Indians
3
John Axford
Detroit Tigers
5
Joe Nathan
Kansas City Royals
5
Greg Holland
Minnesota Twins
3
Glen Perkins
Houston Astros
2
Chad Qualls
Los Angeles Angels
5
Ernesto Frieri
Oakland Athletics
4
Jim Johnson
Seattle Mariners
3
Fernando Rodney
Texas Rangers
3
Neftali Feliz
Atlanta Braves
5
Craig Kimbrel
Miami Marlins
4
Steve Cishek
New York Mets
3
Bobby Parnell
Philadelphia Phillies
5
Jonathan Papelbon
Washington Nationals
5
Rafael Soriano
Chicago Cubs
3
Jose Veras
Cincinnati Reds
5
Aroldis Chapman
Milwaukee Brewers
4
Jim Henderson
Pittsburgh Pirates
4
Jason Grilli
St. Louis Cardinals
5
Trevor Rosenthal
Arizona Diamondbacks
4
Addison Reed
Colorado Rockies
3
LaTroy Hawkins
Los Angeles Dodgers
3
Kenley Jansen
San Diego Padres
4
Huston Street
San Francisco Giants
5
Sergio Romo
Injured players in red
Stability (1 = least stable, 5 = most stable)
Next in Line
Sleeper
Darren O'Day
Ryan Webb
Quick Blurb (Date updated)
Hey, if Jim Johnson can save 50+ games why can't
Hunter do it? (2/17)
Uehara is dominant when on the mound, but can he
Edward Mujica
Junichi Tazawa
close for a full season? (2/17)
Robertson will have a long leash, but has some big
Shawn Kelley
Preston Claiborne
shoes to fill with Mo Rivera gone. (2/17)
Look out for Heath Bell if/when Balfour gets injured.
Heath Bell
Joel Peralta
(2/17)
Janssen has enough talent to put up a top 5 season
Sergio Santos
Steve Delabar
even in the tough AL East. (2/17)
Jones is a high K pitcher, who could put up some nice
Matt Lindstrom
Daniel Webb
numbers if he wins the job. (2/17)
Axford has the job, but look for his leash to be
Cody Allen
Vinnie Pestano
extremely short as Cody Allen is ready. (2/17)
Nathan has been good for so long it's hard to imagine
Joba Chamberlain
Bruce Rondon
the Tigers not sticking with him. (2/17)
Holland showed in 2013 why he's one of the best
Luke Hochevar
Kelvin Herrera
closers in the game. (2/17)
Perkins brings elite closer numbers without the price.
Jared Burton
Casey Fien
(2/17)
Qualls is the favorite, but this is really anyone's gig.
Jesse Crain
Mat Albers
(2/17)
Frieri will K a ton of batters and the Angels should
Joe Smith
Sean Burnett
bounce back in 2013. (2/17)
I guess back-to-back 50 save seasons means you yield
Luke Gregerson
Ryan Cook
Jemile Weeks in a trade. (2/17)
I don't understand why Rodney continues to land
Danny Farquhar
Yoervis Medina
closer jobs. Smarten up guys. (2/17)
Feliz should start as the closer, but anyone can steal if
Tanner Scheppers
Joakim Soria
he struggles. (2/17)
Kimbrel's new contract should be enough reason as to
Jordan Walden
David Carpenter
why he's worth taking early. (2/17)
Cishek is coming off a career-best season, now if the
Mike Dunn
Carter Capps
Marlins could just win some games. (2/17)
A promising 2013 season was cut short due to injury,
Vic Black
Scott Rice
but he's back, willing, and able. (2/17)
Papelbon has been so good for so long there's no realy
Antonio Bastardo
Mike Adams
reason to worry. (2/17)
Consecutive 40+ save seasons should mean Soriano
Tyler Clippard
Drew Storen
has a nice leash for 2014. (2/17)
Veras stuggles against lefties, which will hinder his
Pedro Strop
Hector Rondon
ability to close long term. (2/17)
Any noise of Chapman returning to the starting
Jonathan Broxton
Sean Marshall
rotation is just that…noise. (2/17)
Henderson struggled late in 2013, but the job is his
Francisco Rodriguez
Brandon Kintzler
until he proves it wasn't a fluke. (2/17)
Grillis dazzled in 2013 as the anchor of a surprising
Mark Melancon
Vin Mazzaro
Pirates team. (2/17)
Rosenthal shined in what was a very impressive
Jason Motte
Carlos Martinez
Cardinals bullpen in 2013. (2/17)
You don't usually trade for an arm like Reed's unless
Brad Ziegler
J.J. Putz
you have big plans for it. (2/17)
There's absolutely no reason why Rex Brothers
Rex Brothers
Wilton Lopez
shouldn't have this job by June. (2/17)
Jansen has the upside of Craig Kimbrel, but two
Brian Wilson
Chris Perez
proven closers loom behind him. (2/17)
Street is great when he's on the mound, but injuries
Joaquin Benoit
Dale Thayer
limit him greatly. (2/17)
Romo has the skill set to be a dominant closer, and
Jeremy Affeldt
Santiago Casilla
should get plenty of opps. (2/17)
Notable free agents: Kevin Gregg, Joel Hanrahan, Ryan Madson
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2013: Catcher Year in Review
Have you every asked yourself, “I wonder if Player X is better suited for a head-to-head league or roto league?” Well, today’s your lucky day! Behold the H2H vs. Roto quadrant, where you can quickly identify which league your favorite player stands out in.
The criteria is simple: Consistent players on a weekly basis are more valuable in H2H leagues due to their weekly nature while roto leagues lend
themselves to a more patient approach. However, in roto leagues you like to have players who contribute stats across the board, but you don’t
care when they come.
We rated some of last year’s best Catchers on both consistency and statistical balance based on their 2013 performance (small sample size alert!)
and plopped them on a chart. Take a look!
More
consistency
Better
in H2H
Great
Player
A.J. Pierzynski
Matt Wieters
Buster Posey
Brian McCannCarlos Santana
Salvador Perez
Yadier Molina
Less
balance
More
balance
Welington Castillo
A.J. Ellis
Ryan Doumit
Jason Castro
Jarrod
Saltalamacchia
Russell Martin
Bad
Player
Less
consistency
Wilin Rosario
Better
in Roto
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Who's HR/FB Rate Over- or UnderPerformed Their Average FB Distance?
30.0%
25.0%
HR/FB
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
240
250
260
270
280
290
Average FB Distance
300
310
320
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If you find yourself wondering whether a certain player deserved to hit as high (or low) as he did last year, rather than look at his BABIP and try to
decipher whether he was lucky or unlucky just reference the chart below. Our xBA calculation takes everything you need to know into account
and spits out what each hitter should have hit.
The chart is easy to read: If your player lands above the line then he was unlucky (lower BA than xBA), but if he’s below the line then he was lucky
and could be due for regression. It’s as easy as that!
BA vs. Expected BA, 2013 Season
.360
Unlucky
.340
.320
Expected Batting Average
.300
.280
.260
.240
.220
Lucky
.200
.200
.220
.240
.260
.280
.300
.320
.340
.360
Batting Average
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Catcher 2014 Preview
Jake Devereaux’s Dynasty / Keeper League Watch List
Rk
Prospect Name
Team
Age
ETA
Comments
1 Travis d'Arnaud
NYM
25
Early 2014
2014 will finally mark the arrival of baseball’s best catching prospect. The Mets will be
happy to finally have another home grown backstop capable of being a perennial all-star.
2 Jorge Alfaro
TEX
21
3 Josmil Pinto
MIN
25
4 Gary Sanchez
NYY
21
5 Blake Swihart
BOS
23
With plenty of swing and miss in his game Alfaro still has one of the highest ceilings at the
position. The extremely athletic backstop has true 20/20 potential at a position where
steals are a rarity
Not often thought of as a top prospect Pinto can do one thing without question—he can
Early 2014 hit. Though he is splitting time with Kurt Suzuki he should see ample at-bats in the weak
Twins lineup.
Sanchez has plenty of power but doesn’t always make enough contact to make it work in
2015
the games. If things break right for him he could hit .250 with 25HR, however due to his
poor defense it may be at first base.
In 2013 Swihart saw his walk rate rise to 9.7% his K rate drop to 14.9% and his average
2015
rise to .298 at the high-A level. If the young catcher is able to continue this path of
improvement he could be best the long term option in Fenway.
2016
Top 30 Rankings / Auction ($) Values
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Player Name
Buster Posey
Joe Mauer
Wilin Rosario
Carlos Santana
Yadier Molina
Jonathan Lucroy
Brian McCann
Jason Castro
Salvador Perez
Miguel Montero
Matt Wieters
Yan Gomes
Welington Castillo
Evan Gattis
Wilson Ramos
$ Value
$15
$14
$12
$11
$10
$9
$9
$8
$7
$3
$3
$1
$1
$1
$0
Rank
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Player Name
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Devin Mesoraco
A.J. Pierzynski
Mike Zunino
Jordan Pacheco
Travis d'Arnaud
Russell Martin
A.J. Ellis
Alex Avila
Josmil Pinto
John Buck
John Jaso
Hank Conger
Carlos Ruiz
Chris Iannetta
$ Value
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
A Closer Look...Catcher Superlatives
Superlative
Biggest Risk
Safest Bet
Mid-Round Sleeper
Late-Round Sleeper
Don't Believe the Hype
Post-Hype Sleeper
Best Value Pick
Player You Always Own
Player You Never Own
Round I'll Draft C
Better in Points Leagues
Better in Roto Leagues
Better in H2H Leagues
Better in Keeper Leagues
Matt Commins
Evan Gattis
Joe Mauer
Jonathan Lucroy
Yan Gomes
Brian McCann
Devin Mesoraco
Joe Mauer
Joe Mauer
Matt Wieters
5th
Willin Rosario
Joe Mauer
Brian McCann
Salvador Perez
Eric Broutman
Wilin Rosario
Joe Mauer
Wilson Ramos
Devin Mesoraco
Wilin Rosario
Devin Mesoraco
Jonathon Lucroy
Wilson Ramos
Buster Posey
12th-15th
Joe Mauer
Jonathon Lucroy
Matt Wieters
Travis d'Arnaud
Paul Beck
Wilson Ramos
A.J. Pierzysnki
Miguel Montero
Jesus Montero
Salvador Perez
Devin Mesoraco
Jason Castro
Alex Avila
Yadier Molina
Late
Salvador Perez
Wilin Rosario
Jonathon Lucroy
Jason Castro
Adam Nodiff
Willin Rosario
Jonathan Lucroy
Wilson Ramos
Travis d’Arnaud
Evan Gattis
Devin Mesoraco
Jason Castro
Jonathan Lucroy
Yadier Molina
8th-10th
Wilin Rosario
Buster Posey
Wilin Rosario
Salvador Perez
Jake Devereaux
Evan Gattis
Johnathan Lucroy
Brian McCann
Jason Castro
Yan Gomes
Miguel Montero
Jason Castro
Brian McCann
Buster Posey
7th
Carlos Santana
Wilin Rosario
Buster Posey
Salvador Perez
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Buster Posey | SF | Age: 27 | Rk: 1 (55)
Carlos Santana | CLE | Age: 28 | Rk: 4 (90)
Position: C/1B
Position: C/1B
There’s no doubt who the top catcher is in fantasy this year -- it’s
Posey. After a scorching 1st half in which the San Fran backstop
hit .325, he never found his groove after the All-Star break, putting
up a “What the f***”-inducing .244/2/16 line in 58 2nd-half games.
Posey has reportedly bulked up this offseason in an attempt to withstand the 162-game grind better, but it’s not like these late-season
slides are a regular occurrence. In 2012 he posted a .385/14/60 line
after the break. Regardless, Posey is the best catcher in fantasy.
Santana bats at the heart of a solid Indians lineup and, like Joe
Mauer, is making the transition from catcher to 1B. His offensive numbers when not catching are noticeably better than
when he is, but regardless, Santana is a fairly elite fantasy option given the position he plays. He dominates in OBP leagues,
but can he post that breakout season we’ve all been expecting.
I figured we would have seen a .280/28/90 season by now.
Players with similar stat lines: Allen Craig; Billy Butler;
Adrian Gonzalez
2011
2012
2013
2014
45
148
148
144
185
610
595
606
17
78
61
72
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.2
15.7
11.8
12.9
9.7
11.3
10.1
11.2
1.79
1.61
1.44
1.11
4
24
15
22
21
103
72
89
18.0 10.3%
24.6 18.8%
19.9 10.0%
23.3 14.4%
Players with similar stat lines: Adam LaRoche; Corey Hart;
Josh Hamilton
3
1
2
3
.284
.336
.294
.300
.258
.342
.276
.300
2011
2012
2013
2014
155
143
154
157
658
609
642
645
84
72
75
82
27
18
20
23
79
76
74
85
5
3
3
2
.239
.252
.268
.270
.214
.257
.271
.250
.326
.368
.312
.312
-4.86
5.09
1.39
3.77
652
27
146
55
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.2
16.6
17.1
16.7
14.7
14.9
14.5
14.3
1.12
1.14
1.19
1.15
15.4
19.1
21.8
19.3
16.0%
11.5%
13.0%
14.9%
.263
.278
.301
.289
1.32
-0.06
1.73
2.40
130
209
130
90
Joe Mauer | MIN | Age: 31 | Rk: 2 (64)
Yadier Molina | STL | Age: 31 | Rk: 5 (102)
Position: C/1B
Position: C
Mauer has worn the Scarlett I (for “injury prone”) for the better part of his career, but those concerns are alleviated a bit
this year as he transitions to first base. There’s no doubt getting out from behind the plate will help Mauer stay healthy,
but could it mean we see more HR power? We’ll need to
wait and see about that, but for now you can feel comfortable penciling Mauer in for a .300+ BA and some solid R/
RBI production in what could be a career-best number of PA.
Molina seems to get better with age. According to our rankings formula, Molina was the top-ranked catcher last season -- a pretty good encore to his 2nd-ranked 2012 season.
We dock Molina a little bit in just about every category,
but that’s primarily because we don’t see him batting .373
with RISP again this year. Honestly, I can’t heap enough
praise on Molina, and I’d be more than happy to slot him
at catcher on my fantasy team, but only at the right price.
Players with similar stat lines: Victor Martinez; Allen Craig;
Yadier Molina
2011
2012
2013
2014
82
147
113
138
333
641
508
615
38
81
62
82
2011
2012
2013
2014
11.4
13.7
17.5
17.1
9.6
14.0
12.0
13.5
2.57
2.35
1.85
1.21
3
10
11
11
30
85
47
84
23.1 5.4%
25.0 9.7%
27.7 12.1%
20.4 7.6%
Players with similar stat lines: Victor Martinez; Martin Prado;
Salvador Perez
0
8
0
1
.287
.319
.324
.310
.308
.315
.315
.310
2011
2012
2013
2014
139
138
136
132
518
563
541
546
55
65
68
64
.319
.364
.383
.363
-3.70
3.20
0.63
3.36
506
74
175
64
2011 8.5
2012 9.8
2013 10.2
2014 9.2
6.4
8.0
5.5
5.9
1.27
1.14
1.24
1.37
14
22
12
14
65
76
80
75
19.6 9.1%
24.8 13.8%
24.3 7.8%
19.8 9.3%
4
12
3
4
.305
.315
.319
.310
.274
.336
.299
.300
.311
.316
.338
.320
0.75
3.29
2.62
2.06
154
69
89
102
Wilin Rosario | COL | Age: 25 | Rk: 3 (74)
Jonathan Lucroy | MIL | Age: 28 | Rk: 6 (121)
Position: C
Position: C/1B
Everyone knows Rosario has the power, but many question whether he can bat anywhere near last year’s .292 mark. I think he can.
Comparing Rosario’s batted ball, walk, and strikeout rates, I found
a group of batters whose skill set most closely mimicked Rosario’s. Those batters averaged a .327 BABIP, so just because Rosario’s was .344 doesn’t mean it has to come tumbling down. It probably won’t be that high again, but I think it’ll be close. Playing in
Coors with a well-rounded game, it’s hard to overvalue Rosario.
Players with similar stat lines: Jose Abreu; Brian McCann;
Corey Hart
2011
2012
2013
2014
16
117
121
125
57
426
466
503
6
67
63
75
2011
2012
2013
2014
35.1
23.2
23.4
22.7
3.5
5.9
3.2
4.8
1.00
1.26
1.14
1.14
3
28
21
29
8
71
79
82
20.0 21.4%
17.3 25.5%
22.9 17.1%
20.5 23.3%
A well-rounded hitter who’d been knocking on the door for a couple
years, particularly with his great per-game production in 2012, Lucroy finally put together his breakout campaign in 2013. He ranked
3rd among all catchers on the year and was 1 of just 2 to top 80 RBI
(Yadier Molina was the other). Will Lucroy follow up his solid season with a repeat campaign? Why not! His K% and BB% both improved last season, and he’s a line drive machine. It’s not out of the
realm of possibility to say Lucroy should be number 2 on this list.
Players with similar stat lines: Aramis Ramirez; Pablo Sandoval;
Jason Castro
0
4
4
2
.204
.270
.292
.280
.242
.287
.296
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
136
96
147
141
468
346
580
565
45
46
59
61
.250
.289
.344
.308
-6.72
1.32
2.30
3.00
1088
138
101
74
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.2
12.7
11.9
12.0
6.2
6.4
7.9
7.6
1.23
1.11
1.03
0.99
12
12
18
17
59
58
82
81
24.2 10.7%
21.1 11.7%
22.8 10.3%
20.7 9.9%
2
4
9
6
.265
.320
.280
.290
.265
.297
.296
.290
.317
.338
.290
.301
-1.73
-0.64
2.15
1.69
307
246
110
121
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Brian McCann | NYY | Age: 30 | Rk: 7 (123)
Miguel Montero | ARI | Age: 30 | Rk: 10 (184)
Position: C
Position: C
Just about everyone expects McCann to set a new career-high
in HR in his 1st season with the Yankees, and we’re no different. OK, topping his previous best of 24 HR by 1 isn’t exactly an earth-shattering prediction, but it’s a step in the
right direction. Injuries have limited him over the last 3
years, but McCann used to be a .280/20/90 guy from a shallow offensive position. We’ll see how big the Yankee Stadium boost is, but a 28+ HR season is definitely in play.
Players with similar stat lines: Kendrys Morales; Corey Hart;
Marlon Byrd
2011
2012
2013
2014
128
121
102
128
527
487
402
544
51
44
43
64
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.9
15.6
16.4
16.2
10.8
9.0
9.7
8.5
0.81
0.97
0.84
0.78
24
20
20
25
71
67
57
79
15.6 13.6%
19.0 13.3%
22.3 16.3%
19.6 15.7%
Montero ranked 4th in 2011 and 7th in 2012, so don’t hate on this
rank. You know those bad days you have where absolutely everything seems to go wrong and you can’t catch a break? Montero
suffered through 6 months of that in 2013. He posted a 21.4 LD%
yet managed just a .282 BABIP, which is well below his career average (.312). He was a little more passive at the plate -- BB% over
10.0, K% over 20.0, both for the 2nd straight year -- but Montero’s
established himself enough for me to like his chance at a rebound.
Players with similar stat lines: Jason Castro; Anthony Rendon;
Jed Lowrie
3
3
0
1
.270
.230
.256
.280
.232
.256
.288
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
140
141
116
127
553
573
475
525
65
65
44
64
18
15
11
15
86
88
42
77
1
0
0
0
.282
.286
.230
.280
.273
.245
.250
.260
.287
.234
.261
.287
0.48
-2.06
-1.16
1.61
171
344
282
123
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.5
22.7
23.2
21.9
8.5
12.7
10.7
10.7
1.17
1.19
1.51
1.25
21.9
20.9
21.4
25.9
12.6%
11.6%
11.3%
14.2%
.317
.362
.282
.334
1.33
0.84
-3.61
0.51
128
166
485
184
Jason Castro | HOU | Age: 27 | Rk: 8 (141)
Matt Wieters | BAL | Age: 28 | Rk: 11 (197)
Position: C
Position: C
Castro bats at the middle of an MLB lineup. It’s not the best MLB
lineup, but batting 3rd for the Astros beats batting 7th for almost
anyone else. In the minors, Castro displayed great walk rates and
average strikeout rates, so he could certainly show improvement
in those areas in 2014 (as we expect), but the best that’ll probably do is counteract his bound-to-drop .351 BABIP. Then again,
when you post a LD% over 25.0 with half-a-season over 27.0 under your belt, too, then high BABIPs might follow you around.
After posting a .235 BA in 2013 and falling in the ranks once
again, is it time to say we’ve seen the best of Wieters? His K%
hasn’t improved in the last 4 years, he’s posting similar HR totals each season, and his BA is very much going in the wrong
direction. He rarely posts good line drive rates, generally sitting
around 17%, and it seems to me like he’s trying to hit too many
fly balls. This isn’t the 1st time you’ll hear us reference the value
of power in today’s game, but that’s why Wieters is still enticing.
Players with similar stat lines: Miguel Montero; Aramis Ramirez;
Pablo Sandoval
2011
2012
2013
2014
87
120
132
295
491
589
29
63
70
2011
2012 20.7
2013 26.5
2014 18.8
10.5
10.2
9.3
1.42
1.12
1.63
6
18
15
29
56
83
27.5 10.0%
25.2 16.5%
19.5 12.2%
Players with similar stat lines: Jedd Gyorko; Jason Kubel;
Justin Smoak
0
2
2
.257
.276
.280
.303
.282
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
139
144
148
145
551
593
579
580
72
67
59
65
22
23
22
23
68
83
79
76
1
3
2
2
.262
.249
.235
.250
.263
.274
.241
.260
.309
.351
.322
-4.93
0.33
1.34
622
188
141
2011
2012
2013
2014
15.2
18.9
18.0
18.3
8.7
10.1
7.4
7.1
1.12
1.24
0.88
2.39
17.7
20.4
17.6
23.5
13.6%
15.5%
11.6%
25.4%
.276
.274
.247
.274
0.57
0.40
-0.01
0.19
163
189
206
197
Salvador Perez | KC | Age: 24 | Rk: 9 (162)
Yan Gomes | CLE | Age: 26 | Rk: 12 (251)
Position: C
Position: C
Perez is a defense-first catcher who has some good offensive skills
as well -- he makes as much contact as any other catcher and he
hits a lot of line drives. We’ll see how much HR potential the 6’3,
245 lb catcher really has, but he shouldn’t have much trouble getting to 15. With a very good BA (career .301) and some solid RBI
potential batting 6th for the Royals, Perez has solidified himself as a top 10 catcher who could soon develop into a top 5 option. Currently, it’s his R total that’s holding him back most.
Gomes is generating buzz as a sleeper at catcher this season after batting .294/11/38 in about half-a-season of PA last year,
but I’m not entirely sold. He got by with a .342 BABIP despite line drive rates that resembled the pathetic efforts put
forth by Matt Wieters, and Gomes has a history of high strikeout rates in the minors. He has pretty good power potential
and could hit 20+ HR in a full season, but I would much rather take one of our top 10 catchers and solidify the position.
Players with similar stat lines: Pablo Sandoval; Miguel Montero;
Yadier Molina
2011
2012
2013
2014
39
76
138
138
158
305
526
551
20
38
48
56
2011 12.7
2012 8.9
2013 12.0
2014 11.3
4.4
3.9
4.0
4.7
1.42
1.39
1.42
1.19
3
11
13
16
21
39
79
76
29.2 7.9%
24.2 13.1%
20.5 9.0%
22.8 9.9%
Players with similar stat lines: Jhonny Peralta; Andre Ethier;
Alexander Guerrero
0
0
0
0
.331
.301
.292
.300
.352
.332
.265
.300
2011
2012
2013
2014
43
88
133
111
322
520
9
45
59
.362
.299
.311
.312
-4.60
-2.77
0.43
1.05
611
400
183
162
2011
2012 28.8
2013 20.8
2014 21.3
5.4
5.6
6.9
1.28
1.12
1.14
4
11
16
13
38
63
14.9 16.0%
17.8 12.4%
23.0 12.9%
0
2
2
.204
.294
.270
.206
.243
.280
.246
.342
.318
-6.93
-1.77
-0.56
1095
319
251
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Welington Castillo | CHC | Age: 27 | Rk: 13 (292)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia | MIA | Age: 29 | Rk: 16 (303)
Position: C
Position: C
Castillo was decent in extremely limited playing time in 2012,
but in 2013 he finally got a chance to show what he can do. His
428 PA wasn’t an extremely high total, but it was enough for
him to have value off free agency for a few stretches (I know I
owned Castillo several times when Miguel Montero failed).
If we’re to believe his minor league numbers (and what he did
in that brief 2011 campaign), there’s a sneaky amount of power
in Castillo’s bat. This is the year we’ll start to see it materialize.
Fresh off a successful foray into free agency, Saltalamacchia was
the Marlins’ biggest offseason haul. Salty was able to bat .273 last
year despite fanning nearly 30% of the time, so we know there
was a good amount of batted ball luck at play (.372 BABIP). Luck
aside, though, Saltalamacchia set an all-time catcher record with
40 doubles, an amazing accomplishment that highlights how
much pop he has. Playing home games in the spacious Crayola Canyon won’t help his HR total, but Salty could hit 20+ HR.
Players with similar stat lines: Nate Schierholtz; Oscar Taveras;
Devin Mesoraco
2011
2012
2013
2014
4
52
113
120
13
190
428
475
0
16
41
52
2011
2012
2013
2014
30.8
26.8
22.7
21.1
0.0
8.9
7.9
8.8
1.33
1.34
1.28
0.89
0
5
8
16
0
22
32
57
12.5 0.0%
20.0 12.2%
21.8 8.2%
20.0 12.5%
Players with similar stat lines: Hunter Morris; Mike Zunino;
Mike Moustakas
0
0
2
2
.154
.265
.274
.260
.167
.240
.250
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
103
121
121
127
386
448
470
506
52
55
68
51
16
25
14
19
56
59
65
62
1
0
4
2
.235
.222
.273
.250
.222
.251
.256
.240
.222
.348
.347
.310
-5.72
-2.88
-1.69
991
411
292
2011
2012
2013
2014
30.8
31.0
29.6
28.5
6.2
8.5
9.1
8.7
0.69
0.66
0.85
1.68
21.3
22.8
28.6
15.2
14.3%
20.0%
12.6%
20.3%
.304
.265
.372
.307
-2.05
-1.81
0.56
-1.88
337
327
177
303
Evan Gattis | ATL | Age: 27 | Rk: 14 (295)
Devin Mesoraco | CIN | Age: 26 | Rk: 17 (312)
Position: C/OF
Position: C
If you listened to our catcher Profcast or have been following our
top 200 coundown, you’ll notice Gattis took a huge, last-minute
nosedive. On the eve before the Draft Guide went out, we downgraded almost every aspect of Gattis’ line. His IFFB% last year
was really bugging me, and I began to think he might struggle
enough at the plate to cost himself some PA. When HR are all you
can provide, you really, really need to hit a lot of them. Our projected 21 bombs is good, but it doesn’t quite make up for the rest.
We’ve been waiting for Mesoraco to establish himself as a viable fantasy catcher for several years now, but we’re still waiting for
signs of life from the career .225 hitter. On the bright side, Mesoraco took his first steps forward last year with a much improved set
of batted ball stats -- 21.1 LD% and 7.8 IFFB%. Typically, those
rates have been well below average, so maybe Mesoraco is starting to figure things out. He still hasn’t topped 352 PA in a season,
but if he gets 450+ he makes for an interesting late-round flyer.
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Dominguez; Matt Davidson;
Marcell Ozuna
2011
2012
2013
2014
105
135
382
487
44
52
2011
2012
2013 21.2
2014 26.3
5.5
7.8
0.92
0.80
21
21
65
71
14.5 17.1%
18.1 16.2%
Players with similar stat lines: Oscar Taveras; Dayan Viciedo;
A.J. Pierzynski
0
2
.243
.240
.238
.240
2011
2012
2013
2014
18
54
103
119
53
184
352
450
5
17
31
48
.255
.343
-1.00
-1.74
265
295
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.9
17.9
17.3
17.8
5.7
9.2
6.8
7.6
0.89
1.20
1.33
0.88
2
5
9
14
6
14
42
55
15.0 11.1%
16.7 10.0%
21.1 10.0%
17.5 10.0%
0
1
0
2
.180
.212
.238
.270
.206
.223
.279
.270
.184
.234
.264
.295
-7.01
-6.55
-3.95
-2.09
1141
1046
511
312
Wilson Ramos | WAS | Age: 26 | Rk: 15 (299)
A.J. Pierzynski | BOS | Age: 37 | Rk: 18 (317)
Position: C
Position: C
I’m getting very tired of hearing about Ramos’ power potential after he slugged 16 HR in half-time play last year. First,
he’s almost completely a ground ball hitter with one of the lowest FB% in the league. Second, he needed a 27.6% HR/FB rate
to do it, which would be fitting if Ramos were Giancarlo Stanton. Third, he hit about half of those HR in 1 month (7 in September). I know it doesn’t matter when you hit them as long as
you do, but this smells like a hot streak more than anything else.
Players with similar stat lines: Dayan Viciedo; A.J. Pierzynski;
Oscar Taveras
2011
2012
2013
2014
113
25
78
123
435
96
303
495
48
11
29
45
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.5
19.8
13.9
12.9
8.7
12.5
5.0
4.6
1.40
3.31
2.41
1.33
15
3
16
15
52
10
59
63
14.6 13.4%
13.8 23.1%
19.5 27.6%
19.4 11.2%
Pierzynski’s late-career power surge propelled him to
4th at the position in 2012 and 11th last year, but that’s
coming to an end in 2014. I believe it’s possible Pierzynski can still hit for a .270-.280 average, but Fenway
Park’s spacious right field dimensions kill left-handed power and the team has created a nice role for David
Ross. If you’re planning on nabbing a value catcher in the
last rounds of the draft, I’d suggest you look elsewhere.
Players with similar stat lines: Devin Mesoraco; Oscar Taveras;
Wilson Ramos
0
0
0
2
.267
.265
.272
.270
.238
.253
.347
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
129
135
134
118
500
520
529
501
38
68
48
45
.297
.306
.270
.278
-1.70
-6.61
-1.79
-1.79
303
1052
320
299
2011 6.6
2012 15.0
2013 14.4
2014 16.0
4.6
5.4
2.1
5.0
1.77
1.17
1.21
1.07
8
27
17
13
48
77
70
58
20.9 6.5%
22.2 18.6%
22.4 11.2%
24.4 9.5%
0
0
1
2
.287
.278
.272
.270
.283
.310
.288
.290
.291
.280
.288
.296
-2.27
1.42
-0.11
-2.17
355
135
215
317
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Mike Zunino | SEA | Age: 23 | Rk: 19 (322)
Russell Martin | PIT | Age: 31 | Rk: 22 (367)
Position: C
Position: C
I’ll preface this by saying it’s only been 1 year and I’m aware Zunino is his own person, but I’m backing way off the Mariners slugging catching prospect. There are a few prospects that, through
no fault of their own, I just won’t gamble on: Rockies pitchers
and Mariners batters are right at the top of that list. Maybe it’s
because of Jesus Montero’s fall from top prospect stardom, or
maybe it’s that Zunino batted .214 last year with an 18.5 LD%
and 14.6 IFFB%, but I’m not as optimistic as I was a year ago.
Players with similar stat lines: Mike Moustakas; Jarrod Saltalamacchia;
Hunter Morris
2011
2012
2013
2014
52
134
193
534
22
52
2011
2012
2013 25.4
2014 21.9
8.3
7.3
1.10
1.08
5
17
14
63
18.5 10.4%
18.8 12.3%
Martin has received a lot of good press recently in light
of Pittsburgh’s once-in-a-generation playoff appearance
in 2013. His value behind the plate, from pitch framing
to calling games to throwing out runners, is among the
best in the game. Unfortunately, his bat is about as average as they come. Martin can still swipe the occassional
base and bop the occassional long ball, but he’s a BA killer and doesn’t offer much in the way of counting stats.
Players with similar stat lines: Travis d’Arnaud; Casey McGehee;
Logan Morrison
1
2
.214
.250
.224
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
125
133
127
125
476
485
506
500
57
50
51
50
18
21
15
16
65
53
55
54
8
6
9
2
.237
.211
.226
.240
.261
.284
.231
.260
.267
.284
-5.89
-2.22
778
322
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.0
19.6
21.3
22.2
10.5
10.9
11.5
11.8
1.42
1.46
1.56
1.29
19.2
19.4
16.6
19.0
15.9%
19.8%
13.9%
14.9%
.252
.222
.266
.272
-0.77
-2.57
-1.63
-3.18
241
387
303
367
Jordan Pacheco | COL | Age: 28 | Rk: 20 (349)
A.J. Ellis | LAD | Age: 33 | Rk: 23 (371)
Position: C/1B
Position: C
In 2012, Pacheco batted .309 across 505 PA -- a .300+ catcher-eligible player with a little speed who plays for the Rockies is pretty
much the definition of “sleeper.” Pacheco was targeted heavily last
year, but he collapsed. All is not lost, though, and we can’t just forget
the skills Pacheco displayed in 2012. He’s not a .239 hitter, crushing
line drives 25% of the time, and he still plays in Coors. A super utility pinch hitter, I don’t know where Pacheco’s PA will come from,
but he’ll get enough to have some deep league value with his BA.
After a .238 season in 2013, the only thing Ellis really brings
to the plate is his above average plate discipline. Tim Federowicz is lurking on the bench and will steal a lot of PA. Federowicz is the one with the potential, but it appears Ellis still has a
solid grasp on the job and will win the lion’s share of the starts
this season. He could have value in OBP leagues (OBP no lower than .363 from 2010-2012), but there are better higher-upside picks to be found, some of whom are lower in our rankings.
Players with similar stat lines: Lorenzo Cain; Jon Jay;
Ryan Sweeney
Players with similar stat lines: Brian Roberts; Nolan Reimold;
Aaron Hicks
2011
2012
2013
2014
21
132
95
122
88
505
262
465
5
51
23
44
2
5
1
6
14
54
22
47
0
7
0
2
.286
.309
.239
.280
.307
.300
.288
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
31
133
115
111
103
505
448
427
8
44
43
40
2011
2012
2013
2014
10.2
12.1
14.5
13.3
3.4
4.4
3.8
4.7
2.60
1.36
1.89
0.98
27.0
26.4
25.4
20.3
13.3%
3.8%
1.9%
3.6%
.301
.344
.278
.315
-6.23
-0.76
-5.82
-2.93
911
252
765
349
2011
2012
2013
2014
15.5
21.2
17.4
17.3
13.6
12.9
10.0
11.7
1.42
1.37
1.20
1.32
2
13
10
9
11
52
52
48
15.9 8.3%
22.9 12.5%
18.7 8.5%
17.7 8.9%
0
0
0
2
.271
.270
.238
.270
.223
.272
.245
.260
.313
.329
.269
.307
-6.31
-2.35
-3.05
-3.25
939
369
429
371
Travis d’Arnaud | NYM | Age: 25 | Rk: 21 (350)
Alex Avila | DET | Age: 27 | Rk: 24 (384)
Position: C
Position: C
Ranking and projecting d’Arnaud is d’ifficult. On the one hand, he’s
the game’s best catching prospect with a history of HR power in
the minors, solid plate d’iscipline, and a lot of intangibles. On the
other hand, d’Arnaud is tasked with taking over full-time catching
d’uties while molding a pitching staff with twice as many questions
as answers. Besides, catchers tend to d’evelop more slowly offensively -- ask Yadier Molina. I’d d’efinitely d’raft d’Arnaud in 2-catcher leagues and d’eep keeper formats, but only watch him elsewhere.
Players with similar stat lines: Russell Martin; Alex Avila;
Logan Morrison
2011
2012
2013
2014
31
132
112
497
4
51
2011
2012
2013 18.8
2014 19.1
10.7
8.9
1.32
1.18
1
14
5
54
17.7 3.6%
16.6 10.6%
We’ve established that Avila isn’t as good as his 19 HR,
82 RBI season in 2011 that saw him finish as the 3rdbest catcher, but he’s better than a .227/11/47 line. Did
you know that Avila actually earned a 28.0 LD% last year?
Personally, I was shocked by that. He’ll need to get his
FB% out of the 20s and back into the 40s if we’re to see
another borderline 20 HR season, but it’s not impossible for Avila to improve enough to have some value.
Players with similar stat lines: Andrew Lambo; Travis d’Arnaud;
Mike Aviles
0
2
.202
.250
.203
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
141
116
102
109
551
434
379
414
63
42
39
47
19
9
11
13
82
48
47
50
3
2
0
1
.295
.243
.227
.250
.248
.253
.275
.260
.244
.278
-7.41
-2.93
1208
350
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.8
24.0
29.6
32.4
13.2
14.1
11.6
15.0
0.93
1.56
1.42
1.14
21.7
23.8
28.0
22.3
13.8%
11.4%
16.9%
17.9%
.366
.313
.305
.309
1.87
-3.60
-3.50
-3.42
111
477
476
384
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Josmil Pinto | MIN | Age: 25 | Rk: 25 (393)
Hank Conger | LAA | Age: 26 | Rk: 28 (433)
Position: C
Position: C
Minnesota’s whole roster is a mess. Are Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton ready yet? In 83 brief PA last year, Pinto batted .342
with 4 HR, giving fantasy owners a taste of what they could
see if the Twins just cave and give him the job, but for some reason they insist on rostering Kurt Suzuki, who has provided exactly 1 Win Above Replacement in the last 2 years combined. Pinto has solid minor league walk and strikeout rates and could hit
15 HR per 550 PA, but he won’t get that kind of playing time yet.
Our favorite Asian, Conger is slated to compete for playing
time with Chris Iannetta. Conger has the advantage thanks
to his age, offensive upside, and switch-hitting capabilities,
but as long as Iannetta is there the PA will be tough to come
by on a consistent basis. A trade or injury to Iannetta would
give Conger a decent boost, but even with full playing time
Conger’s upside lands somewhere around 15 HR and 55 RBI,
which should put him in the 18-23 range among all catchers.
Players with similar stat lines: Raul Ibanez; Nate Freiman;
Jonathan Singleton
2011
2012
2013
2014
21
65
2011
2012
2013 26.5
2014 19.1
83
246
10
31
7.2
7.3
1.28
0.83
4
13
12
39
24.1 22.2%
24.8 18.9%
Players with similar stat lines: Jonny Gomes; Chris Iannetta;
Ryan Flaherty
0
2
.342
.280
.293
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
59
7
92
102
197
22
255
388
14
0
23
43
.440
.292
-5.62
-3.64
726
393
2011 18.8
2012 0.0
2013 23.9
2014 19.3
8.6
4.5
6.7
7.7
0.89
1.38
0.96
1.36
6
0
7
10
19
1
21
44
17.9 9.8%
0.0
0.0%
19.6 10.1%
26.0 11.8%
0
0
0
2
.209
.167
.249
.240
.237
.161
.230
.250
.231
.158
.307
.275
-6.18
-5.04
-4.26
889
649
433
John Buck | SEA | Age: 33 | Rk: 26 (425)
Carlos Ruiz | PHI | Age: 35 | Rk: 29 (444)
Position: C
Position: C
Seattle’s Mike Zunino insurance, we haven’t heard the last of
Buck. I don’t exactly love putting a power hitter in Safeco, but
Buck is consistently between 15-20 HR and around 400 PA every year. He’ll be a BA suck-hole, though not on the order of
Ryan Doumit, but I can guarantee that at some point in 2014
Buck will get hot, hit 5 HR in a 7-10 day span, and prompt mass
adds across fantasy free agency. Remember, it’s Zunino’s job unless he’s absolutely abysmal, but we’ve seen crazier things happen.
We all warned you that Ruiz’s 2012 season was a mirage and -PED suspension aside -- 2013 was a major disappointment. His
.339 BABIP fell down to earth (.291) and his power declined as
it should when a catcher is in his mid-30’s. Gone are the days
where Ruiz turns in a decent batting average, which is all he
really had going for him. We expect his age to really show in
2014 and you’ll see a lot of those liners turn into grounders.
Players with similar stat lines: Nick Hundley; Mike Olt;
Russell Martin
2011
2012
2013
2014
140
106
110
108
530
398
431
400
41
29
39
35
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.7
25.9
24.1
27.0
10.2
12.3
6.7
10.3
1.00
1.07
1.17
2.00
16
12
15
16
57
41
62
51
18.2 11.1%
17.4 12.5%
19.0 13.9%
16.2 25.6%
Players with similar stat lines: David Lough; Chris Heisey;
Chris Parmelee
0
0
2
2
.227
.192
.222
.230
.224
.214
.240
.230
2011
2012
2013
2014
132
114
92
124
472
421
341
478
49
56
30
37
.268
.235
.262
.271
-3.16
-5.64
-2.52
-4.09
442
707
376
425
2011
2012
2013
2014
10.2
11.9
11.4
10.9
10.2
6.9
5.3
5.0
1.12
1.33
1.40
0.96
6
16
5
8
40
68
37
42
21.0 4.4%
24.0 15.1%
19.6 5.5%
19.4 5.0%
1
4
1
2
.283
.325
.268
.260
.251
.320
.264
.280
.308
.339
.291
.275
-2.39
1.01
-3.81
-4.38
364
153
498
444
John Jaso | OAK | Age: 30 | Rk: 27 (427)
Chris Iannetta | LAA | Age: 31 | Rk: 30 (446)
Position: C
Position: C
After missing two months with a concussion in 2013, Jaso is slated to play a lot more DH in 2014, which should bode well for
his fantasy value. Jaso earns his keep thanks to his career 13.7
BB% and .364 OBP so for those in OBP leagues, take notice.
That being said, his high OBP and some consistent playing time
does him no good if he’s buried at the bottom of an already average Athletics lineup. If he were batting near the top of the order
maybe we’d be more excited, but alas we’ll have to settle for less.
Iannetta finds himself mired in a playing time battle with the
younger, switch-hitting Hank Conger and while we project a
50/50 split it wouldn’t surprise us at all if Iannetta is left by the
wayside and the Angels give Conger a shot at proving his worth.
Iannetta is able to get on base thanks to a career 14.2 BB%, but
he’s a major liability in the batting average department (career .234 BA). There’s always the chance Iannetta is shipped
off to a better situation as he’s in the last year of his contract.
Players with similar stat lines: Juan Lagares; Mark Ellis;
Chris Denorfia
2011
2012
2013
2014
89
108
70
95
273
361
249
360
26
41
31
44
2011
2012
2013
2014
13.2
14.1
18.1
15.3
9.2
15.5
15.3
14.2
1.10
1.64
1.16
1.28
5
10
3
6
27
50
21
32
17.7 6.1%
25.4 14.3%
25.3 5.4%
23.6 7.4%
Players with similar stat lines: Josh Phegley; Ryan Raburn;
Jonny Gomes
1
5
2
2
.224
.276
.271
.270
.236
.328
.255
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
112
79
115
104
426
253
399
374
51
27
40
40
14
9
11
11
55
26
39
42
6
1
0
2
.238
.240
.225
.240
.227
.228
.217
.220
.244
.298
.331
.306
-5.33
-2.28
-4.51
-4.15
726
361
581
427
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.9
23.7
25.1
24.1
16.4
11.5
17.0
15.2
0.80
1.22
0.86
1.72
20.4
20.4
19.3
20.5
12.2%
15.5%
11.1%
17.8%
.276
.288
.284
.282
-1.87
-5.02
-3.88
-4.43
314
627
502
446
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2013: First Base Year in Review
We rated some of last year’s best First Basemen on both consistency and statistical balance based on their 2013 performance (small sample size
alert!) and plopped them on a chart. Take a look!
Better
in H2H
More
consistency
Great
Player
Adrian Gonzalez
Edwin Encarnacion
Chris Davis
Brandon Moss
Mark Trumbo
Daniel Murphy
Mike Napoli
Freddie Freeman
Joey Votto
Less
balance
More
balance
David Ortiz
Prince Fielder
Allen Craig
Paul Goldschmidt
Eric Hosmer
Michael Cuddyer
Bad
Player
Less
consistency
Better
in Roto
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30.0%
25.0%
HR/FB
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
240
250
260
270
280
290
Average FB Distance
300
310
320
Facebook
.360
Unlucky
.340
.320
.300
.280
.260
.240
.220
Lucky
.200
.200
.220
.240
.260
.280
.300
.320
.340
.360
Batting Average
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First Base 2014 Preview
Rk
Prospect
Team
Age
ETA
Comments
Why isn’t Franco listed at 3B? The team has all but assured the public of his move by
Late 2014 announcing he would spend time at first base this spring. His potent bat immediately
jumps him to the head of a weak class.
Last year was a step in the wrong direction for Singleton between the suspension and the
Mid 2014 subpar numbers at AAA. I expect that he will get back on track in 2014 after as strong
season of winter ball. He still has mounds of talent.
The youngest guy on this list Smith was a first round pick by the Mets in 2013. Smith
2016
shows tremendous athleticism at the position and has a relatively advanced approach at
the plate for his level.
1 Maikel Franco
PHI
21
2 Jonathan Singleton
HOU
22
3 Dominic Smith
NYM
19
4 Dan Vogelbach
CHC
21
2015
The Cubs slugger is criticized often for his bad body and lack of athletic ability. One thing
he has no problem doing is hitting the baseball. If he continues to show great BB% and
K% to go along with the power he should find himself in Wrigley in by 2015.
5 Kyle Parker
COL
24
Late 2014
Parker has a whole bunch of power and a great home park in which to play in. He has hit
20+ HR’s at A, A+, and AA over the last three years. I believe in this kid.
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Player Name
Miguel Cabrera
Paul Goldschmidt
Joey Votto
Prince Fielder
Edwin Encarnacion
Freddie Freeman
Chris Davis
Albert Pujols
Eric Hosmer
Adrian Gonzalez
David Ortiz
Allen Craig
Daniel Murphy
Buster Posey
Jose Abreu
Joe Mauer
Mark Trumbo
Carlos Santana
Jonathan Lucroy
Billy Butler
$ Value
$42
$35
$33
$26
$25
$25
$23
$21
$20
$20
$19
$16
$15
$15
$15
$14
$11
$11
$9
$8
Rank
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Player Name
Michael Cuddyer
Brandon Belt
Anthony Rizzo
Victor Martinez
Mike Napoli
Adam LaRoche
Corey Hart
Mark Teixeira
Kendrys Morales
Brandon Moss
Ike Davis
Nick Swisher
Matt Adams
Yonder Alonso
Chris Carter
Daniel Nava
James Loney
Justin Smoak
Mitch Moreland
Ryan Howard
$ Value
$8
$7
$7
$6
$5
$5
$5
$5
$5
$5
$3
$3
$3
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
A Closer Look...First Base Superlatives
Superlative
Biggest Risk
Safest Bet
Mid-Round Sleeper
Late-Round Sleeper
Post-Hype Sleeper
Best Value Pick
Round I'll Draft 1B
Matt Commins
Albert Pujols
Paul Goldschmidt
Anthony Rizzo
Corey Hart
Justin Smoak
Anthony Rizzo
Edwin Encarcion
Allen Craig
Albert Pujols
1st/2nd
Joey Votto
Eric Hosmer
Chris Carter
Eric Hosmer
Eric Broutman
Albert Pujols
Paul Goldschmidt
Mark Teixeira
Ike Davis
Brandon Belt
Ike Davis
Adrian Gonzalez
Kendrys Morales
Eric Hosmer
1st or 8th/9th
Joey Votto
Michael Cuddyer
Adam Laroche
Freddie Freeman
Paul Beck
Eric Hosmer
Prince Fielder
Jose Abreu
Chris Carter
Eric Hosmer
Logan Morrison
Adrian Gonzalez
Adam LaRoche
Prince Fielder
9th
Edwin Encarnacion
Nick Swisher
Paul Goldschmidt
Jose Abreu
Adam Nodiff
Albert Pujols
Joey Votto
Brandon Belt
Kendrys Morales
Anthony Rizzo
Justin Smoak
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
Adrian Gonzalez
3rd-4th
Chris Carter
Eric Hosmer
Chris Davis
Paul Goldschmidt
Jake Devereaux
Allen Craig
Paul Goldschmidt
Albert Pujols
Jose Abreu
Brandon Belt
Anthony Rizzo
Mark Trumbo
Matt Adams
Eric Hosmer
3rd
Anthony Rizzo
Miguel Cabrera
Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt
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Miguel Cabrera | DET | Age: 31 | Rk: 1 (2)
Prince Fielder | TEX | Age: 30 | Rk: 4 (12)
Position: 1B/3B
Position: 1B
Cabrera will not play 3B, which is great for fantasy owners. The
back-to-back MVP struggled mightily down the stretch (.056
ISO in Sep.) due to minor injuries, so the move to 1B should keep
him healthy. Even better for 2014, Cabrera will maintain 3B eligibility. There’s not much to say about his offense as his production
speaks for itself. He’s the best hitter in the game and only 31 years
old. (Note: We ranked him at 1B since he’ll gain it within a week.)
Fielder posted career lows in power (.178 ISO) and walk rate
(10.5%), which isn’t a good sign for a 29-year-old. Now he
gets a fresh start in Texas, which also happens to be an established HR haven. In addition to his struggles on the field,
Fielder also went through a divorce in May, which could have
impacted his focus. We think a fresh start in Texas will bring
nothing but good and Fielder should return to his elite status in what could be baseball’s most potent offense in 2014.
Players with similar stat lines: Paul Goldschmidt; Joey Votto;
Adrian Beltre
2011
2012
2013
2014
161
161
148
159
688
697
652
698
111
109
103
104
2011
2012
2013
2014
12.9
14.1
14.4
14.3
15.7
9.5
13.8
13.3
1.30
1.17
1.03
1.14
30
44
44
38
2
4
3
3
.344
.330
.348
.330
.317
.330
.345
.330
2011
2012
2013
2014
162
162
162
162
692
690
712
704
95
83
82
87
.365
.331
.356
.338
8.48
10.46
12.02
11.66
7
3
1
2
2011
2012
2013
2014
15.3
12.2
16.4
15.5
15.5
12.3
10.5
12.1
1.16
1.24
1.13
1.17
105
139
137
128
22.1 18.2%
21.7 23.0%
24.0 25.4%
22.7 23.9%
Players with similar stat lines: Adrian Beltre; Evan Longoria;
David Ortiz
38
30
25
34
120
108
106
103
19.8 21.8%
25.4 17.9%
22.9 13.5%
23.0 21.3%
1
1
1
1
.299
.313
.279
.290
.308
.331
.279
.310
.306
.321
.307
.293
7.01
5.47
4.29
5.94
16
21
46
12
Paul Goldschmidt | ARI | Age: 26 | Rk: 2 (5)
Edwin Encarnacion | TOR | Age: 31 | Rk: 5 (14)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B/3B
Goldschmidt’s swift rise to stardom has been thanks to major improvements in both plate discipline and his ability to stay on the
field. When he first came up there were questions regarding whether he could cut down on the strikeouts. He has. His strikeout rate
has gone down in each of his 3 seasons -- from 29.9% to 20.4%
-- which has also helped him hit .286 and .302 in his last two seasons. Add in double-digit steals to his already sweet power upside
and you have the most complete first basemen in fantasy baseball.
After a monster 2012 season everyone expected some regression,
but Encarnacion basically replicated his numbers across the board
despite suffering a wrist injury. Maybe the most impressive thing
about him is his miniscule 10.0 K%, which is unheard of for bigtime power hitters. He may be 31 years old, which should be a factor in keeper drafts, but those in redraft leagues should be good
to go. These years, a .270/30/100 player is very valuable in fantasy.
Players with similar stat lines: Prince Fielder; Edwin Encarnacion;
Adam Jones
2011
2012
2013
2014
48
145
160
160
177
587
710
702
28
82
103
94
2011
2012
2013
2014
29.9
22.1
20.4
19.5
11.3
10.2
13.9
13.8
1.16
1.12
1.28
1.19
8
20
36
37
4
18
15
11
.250
.286
.302
.290
.251
.282
.306
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
134
151
142
156
530
644
621
633
70
93
90
91
.323
.340
.343
.306
-4.15
3.60
9.83
8.40
558
60
5
5
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.5
14.6
10.0
13.0
8.1
13.0
13.2
12.6
0.82
0.67
0.81
0.76
26
82
125
115
21.2 21.1%
23.9 14.2%
21.2 22.5%
22.2 25.4%
Players with similar stat lines: Evan Longoria; Jay Bruce;
Prince Fielder
17
42
36
34
55
110
104
98
19.4 9.4%
17.6 18.7%
21.6 17.6%
19.7 17.6%
8
13
7
7
.272
.280
.272
.280
.243
.302
.323
.290
.292
.266
.247
.268
0.48
6.89
6.08
5.85
170
10
20
14
Joey Votto | CIN | Age: 30 | Rk: 3 (7)
Freddie Freeman | ATL | Age: 24 | Rk: 6 (15)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
A lot has been made about Votto’s 73 RBI last year. If he wants to be
considered an elite first baseman then he needs to be driving in at
least 20 more runs. He doesn’t swing at a lot of pitches, which is great
for the real-life Reds as it optimizes his OBP (career .419), but it limits
his HR potential. We believe his RBI output was a fluke last year, but
know when you’re drafting Votto you’re going to have those frustrating games where he walks four times and scores two runs with 0 RBI.
Players with similar stat lines: Freddie Freeman; Robinson Cano;
Troy Tulowitzki
2011
2012
2013
2014
161
111
162
161
719
475
726
717
101
59
101
92
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.9
17.9
19.0
18.1
15.3
19.8
18.6
17.3
1.17
1.18
1.50
1.30
29
14
24
27
103
56
73
94
27.5 18.2%
30.2 15.1%
27.2 18.3%
28.0 21.0%
Freeman is a line drive hitting machine (career 25.1 LD%) and
it finally showed in his .371 BABIP and .319 BA. Freeman should
continue to be a candidate for future batting titles as his batted
ball profile suggests that he can sustain a high BABIP. However,
that same profile that is good for a high batting average, isn’t quite
so helpful when it comes to his power numbers. His career 35.6
FB% is lower than we’d like, reducing the likelihood of 30 HR seasons, but I guess a .300+ BA and 24-26 HR will just have to do.
Players with similar stat lines: Adrian Gonzalez; Matt Holliday;
Robinson Cano
8
5
6
6
.309
.337
.305
.310
.334
.329
.322
.330
2011
2012
2013
2014
157
147
147
153
635
620
629
665
67
91
89
91
21
23
23
26
76
94
109
96
4
2
1
2
.282
.259
.319
.300
.277
.293
.315
.290
.349
.404
.360
.341
6.84
1.15
5.52
6.91
19
144
27
7
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.4
20.8
19.2
19.4
8.3
10.3
10.5
11.3
1.23
1.01
1.08
1.09
23.0
26.0
26.7
25.5
14.0%
14.8%
15.0%
17.3%
.339
.295
.371
.337
1.70
2.20
6.14
5.72
119
108
19
15
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Chris Davis | BAL | Age: 28 | Rk: 7 (21)
Adrian Gonzalez | LAD | Age: 32 | Rk: 10 (36)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
If you follow our ranking of Davis then it’s likely he won’t land on
any of your teams. That may not be a bad thing. The blunt truth
is that Davis’ batted ball profile screams regression for 2014 and
while he should still be a very valuable fantasy player -- thanks in
large part to his power -- he’s not someone I am comfortable taking in the 1st round. His crazy-high 29.6 K% means a .286 BA is
not likely to repeat barring another 50 HR season, and his 38 HR
pace in the 2nd half means a that season probably isn’t coming.
The elite days are gone, but if you adjust your expectations to the
player he’s been over the last two seasons -- .290 BA, 25 HR, 100
RBI -- then you can save yourself some disappointment. What
hurts Gonzalez’s value is that he’s become rather useless in two
categories (R, SB). It seems as if his name value has all but run out
and 2014 may be the first year he’s actually coming at a proper
value. FantasyPros “experts” have Gonzalez as the 10th-best 1B
and 64th player overall. He’s much better than that overall rank.
Players with similar stat lines: Jay Bruce; Giancarlo Stanton;
Evan Longoria
2011
2012
2013
2014
59
139
160
151
210
562
673
633
25
75
103
87
2011
2012
2013
2014
30.0
30.1
29.6
29.7
5.2
6.6
10.7
9.8
1.04
1.05
0.71
0.90
5
33
53
39
19
85
138
102
25.0 10.0%
23.2 25.2%
21.9 29.6%
22.7 29.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Freddie Freeman; Allen Craig;
Buster Posey
1
2
4
3
.266
.270
.286
.270
.255
.276
.283
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
159
159
157
158
715
684
641
687
108
75
69
79
.366
.335
.336
.309
-4.91
2.61
10.56
5.25
664
95
3
21
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.6
16.1
15.3
16.0
10.3
6.1
7.3
8.0
1.45
1.13
0.98
0.98
27
18
22
25
117
108
100
97
21.2 16.4%
24.1 9.6%
22.8 11.4%
22.0 13.1%
1
2
1
1
.338
.299
.293
.300
.292
.271
.282
.280
.380
.334
.315
.321
8.26
3.31
3.64
4.68
10
68
58
36
Albert Pujols | LAA | Age: 34 | Rk: 8 (30)
David Ortiz | BOS | Age: 38 | Rk: 11 (37)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
We all know how bad Pujols was in 2013, but it’s tough to quantify how much of those struggles were because of age regression and how much were due to his foot injury. Finally opting
for corrective surgery, we have believe his foot probelm to be
a thing of the past, but there’s definitely some risk in drafting the 34-year-old. There has still been a disturbing trend
with his increased swing rate on pitches outside the zone, but
he was successful in 2011 and 2012 with a similar approach.
Ortiz continues to keep Father Time at bay as he turned in his first
30/100 season since 2010 while hitting over .300 for the 3rd consecutive season. He’s turning 38 years old and his production is bound
to fall off at some point. It’s this impending feeling of doom that
has both knocked down his draft-day cost and made him a great
value in each of the last 2 seasons. As long as he’s on the field, Ortiz’s great discipline and power make him a valuable fantasy asset.
Players with similar stat lines: David Ortiz; Carlos Beltran;
Evan Longoria
2011
2012
2013
2014
147
154
99
152
651
670
443
656
105
85
49
82
2011 8.9
2012 11.3
2013 12.4
2014 11.9
9.4
7.8
9.0
8.8
1.17
1.04
0.91
1.01
37
30
17
30
99
105
64
100
17.0 18.3%
18.8 14.0%
19.8 11.8%
18.6 15.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Albert Pujols; Carlos Beltran;
Evan Longoria
9
8
1
3
.299
.285
.258
.280
.300
.278
.265
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
146
90
137
139
605
383
600
604
84
65
84
81
.277
.282
.258
.279
7.14
4.80
-0.79
4.82
14
35
251
30
2011
2012
2013
2014
13.7
13.3
14.7
15.4
12.9
14.6
12.7
12.4
1.10
0.88
1.00
1.01
29
23
30
30
96
60
103
97
21.4 17.5%
21.5 20.0%
22.6 17.9%
21.4 20.3%
1
0
4
2
.309
.318
.309
.290
.305
.304
.301
.300
.321
.316
.321
.289
4.86
1.09
6.26
4.68
35
152
18
37
Eric Hosmer | KC | Age: 24 | Rk: 9 (31)
Allen Craig | STL | Age: 29 | Rk: 12 (44)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B/OF
In 2013, Hosmer proved that his 2012 season was a major fluke in terms
of batting average. His BABIP sky-rocketed back up to .335, which
helped him hit .302, and similar numbers are what we can expect going
forward. The one major knock on Hosmer is his lack of true 1B power.
Hosmer just doesn’t hit enough flyballs (career 28.0 FB%) to be a 2530 HR hitter and he will likely top out in the 18-23 HR range unless
that changes. His 10+ SB potential currently boosts his value a bunch,
but he’ll eventually he’ll need to trade the speed for some dingers.
For his career, Craig has batted .283 with the bases empty (738
PA) and .251 with men on first base (255 PA), but he’s batted .394
with RISP (407 PA). That .394 average is far and away the best in
the league among the 178 players with at least 400 such PA over
that span. Miguel Cabrera is number two at .366, nearly 30 points
back. However, Craig hit just 13 HR thanks to his fly ball rate dipping under 30%. It’s likely he regresses towards the mean in both
of these areas. We’ll see a player with a bit more power in 2014.
Players with similar stat lines: Josh Donaldson; Dustin Pedroia;
David Wright
2011
2012
2013
2014
128
152
159
156
563
598
680
675
66
65
86
85
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.6
15.9
14.7
14.7
6.0
9.4
7.5
9.2
1.57
1.92
2.11
1.35
19
14
17
21
78
60
79
86
18.7 13.5%
18.5 11.3%
22.4 13.0%
20.0 12.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Buster Posey; Robinson Cano;
Adrian Gonzalez
11
16
11
10
.293
.232
.302
.300
.267
.266
.311
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
75
119
134
144
219
514
563
600
33
76
71
77
.314
.255
.335
.320
2.51
-0.95
4.50
4.82
83
262
42
31
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.3
17.3
17.8
17.5
6.8
7.2
7.1
7.0
1.18
1.32
1.60
1.39
11
22
13
23
40
92
97
87
19.1 18.3%
22.7 17.1%
26.9 11.2%
24.4 17.1%
5
2
2
2
.315
.307
.315
.310
.288
.301
.313
.300
.344
.334
.368
.337
-2.03
3.02
3.39
4.22
334
81
64
44
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Daniel Murphy | NYM | Age: 29 | Rk: 13 (49)
Joe Mauer | MIN | Age: 31 | Rk: 16 (64)
Position: 1B/2B
Position: C/1B
Sometimes you don’t have to be an uber-talented player to
put up a great fantasy season. In 2013 Murphy showed exactly that. His above-average skills met plenty of opportunity
as he amassed a career-high 697 PA with the majority of them
coming in the 2nd spot in the lineup. Murphy actually posted worse walk and strikeout rates last year, but he stole 23 bases out of nowhere (previous career high was 10). Given his
89% success rate we should expect him to continue running.
Mauer has worn the Scarlett I (for “injury prone”) for the better part of his career, but those concerns are alleviated a bit
this year as he transitions to first base. There’s no doubt getting out from behind the plate will help Mauer stay healthy,
but could it mean we see more HR power? We’ll need to
wait and see about that, but for now you can feel comfortable penciling Mauer in for a .300+ BA and some solid R/
RBI production in what could be a career-best number of PA.
Players with similar stat lines: Dustin Pedroia; Shane Victorino;
Shin-Soo Choo
2011
2012
2013
2014
Players with similar stat lines: Victor Martinez; Allen Craig;
Yadier Molina
109
156
161
160
423
612
697
685
49
62
92
86
6
6
13
14
49
65
78
71
5
10
23
19
.320
.291
.286
.300
.288
.312
.262
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
82
147
113
138
333
641
508
615
38
81
62
82
2011 9.9
2012 13.4
2013 13.6
2014 13.4
5.7
5.9
4.6
5.4
1.51
2.03
1.17
1.40
21.9
24.3
21.3
19.8
5.5%
4.9%
6.3%
7.8%
.345
.329
.315
.324
-0.65
0.13
4.75
4.08
238
200
39
49
2011
2012
2013
2014
11.4
13.7
17.5
17.1
9.6
14.0
12.0
13.5
2.57
2.35
1.85
1.21
3
10
11
11
30
85
47
84
23.1 5.4%
25.0 9.7%
27.7 12.1%
20.4 7.6%
0
8
0
1
.287
.319
.324
.310
.308
.315
.315
.310
.319
.364
.383
.363
-3.70
3.20
0.63
3.36
506
74
175
64
Buster Posey | SF | Age: 27 | Rk: 14 (55)
Mark Trumbo | ARI | Age: 28 | Rk: 17 (67)
Position: C/1B
Position: 1B/OF
There’s no doubt who the top catcher is in fantasy this year -- it’s
Posey. After a scorching 1st half in which the San Fran backstop
hit .325, he never found his groove after the All-Star break, putting
up a “What the f***”-inducing .244/2/16 line in 58 2nd-half games.
Posey has reportedly bulked up this offseason in an attempt to withstand the 162-game grind better, but it’s not like these late-season
slides are a regular occurrence. In 2012 he posted a .385/14/60 line
after the break. Regardless, Posey is the best catcher in fantasy.
Now in Arizona, Trumbo should be a safe bet to post his best
offensive season of his career. He’s an established 30 HR threat
with a solid walk rate, but where he really hurts himself is in
his inability to make contact. His strikeout rate and contact on
pitches in the zone have gotten worse, and until he fixes these
holes he will be stuck in the .230-.245 range. Still, Trumbo
should see a boost in power numbers for 2014, which means he
could approach 40 HR in a park where the ball really carries.
Players with similar stat lines: Allen Craig; Billy Butler;
Adrian Gonzalez
2011
2012
2013
2014
45
148
148
144
185
610
595
606
17
78
61
72
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.2
15.7
11.8
12.9
9.7
11.3
10.1
11.2
1.79
1.61
1.44
1.11
4
24
15
22
21
103
72
89
18.0 10.3%
24.6 18.8%
19.9 10.0%
23.3 14.4%
Players with similar stat lines: Pedro Alvarez; Jay Bruce;
Giancarlo Stanton
3
1
2
3
.284
.336
.294
.300
.258
.342
.276
.300
2011
2012
2013
2014
149
144
159
155
573
586
678
658
65
66
85
83
.326
.368
.312
.312
-4.86
5.09
1.39
3.77
652
27
146
55
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.9
26.1
27.1
25.1
4.4
6.1
8.0
9.1
1.19
1.13
1.24
1.79
29
32
34
36
87
95
100
97
15.9 17.9%
16.0 20.6%
17.0 20.9%
21.4 32.8%
9
4
5
4
.254
.268
.234
.250
.247
.243
.243
.240
.274
.316
.273
.268
2.14
2.62
3.51
3.26
98
94
63
67
Jose Abreu | CHW | Age: 27 | Rk: 15 (62)
Billy Butler | KC | Age: 28 | Rk: 18 (82)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
As much as I’d like to sit here and say, “Abreu’s Cuban stats translate to x HR and y RBI with a z BA,” we really just can’t know any
of that stuff. We have him projected for a healthy .280 BA, 28 HR,
and 86 RBI, which wouldn’t shock us given all the hype he’s generating this offseason. However, there are some questions regarding playing time and how his skills will translate in the majors.
The bar at first base is set high if he wants to become an elite option, but the upside is definitely there. In keeper leagues, buy now.
Players with similar stat lines: Wilin Rosario; Yoenis Cespedes;
Michael Cuddyer
2011
2012
2013
2014
138
600
74
2011
2012
2013
2014 26.0
9.7
1.02
28
86
20.1 20.5%
While we have Butler listed as a 1B, it’s possible that he doesn’t
qualify there in your league (7 G, 7 GS). Butler will also be looking to rebound from a poor 2013 season that saw him post his career-worst .124 ISO, all coming after what was a promising 2012
season where he posted a .197 ISO. While he kept his rate stats
in check, the problem was that he hit twice as many ground balls
as fly balls, hich isn’t a recipe for success if you want to hit HR.
Players with similar stat lines: Pablo Sandoval; Aramis Ramirez;
Buster Posey
7
.280
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
159
161
162
161
673
679
668
664
74
72
62
71
.328
3.51
62
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.1
16.3
15.3
15.8
9.8
8.0
11.8
10.5
1.27
1.64
2.01
1.68
19
29
15
21
95
107
82
87
18.7 10.4%
23.9 19.9%
20.5 11.7%
21.2 15.9%
2
2
0
0
.291
.313
.289
.290
.268
.328
.283
.290
.316
.341
.326
.314
2.82
4.89
1.57
2.65
75
33
138
82
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Carlos Santana | CLE | Age: 28 | Rk: 19 (90)
Mike Napoli | BOS | Age: 32 | Rk: 22 (110)
Position: C/1B
Position: 1B
Santana bats at the heart of a solid Indians lineup and, like Joe
Mauer, is making the transition from catcher to 1B. His offensive numbers when not catching are noticeably better than
when he is, but regardless, Santana is a fairly elite fantasy option given the position he plays. He dominates in OBP leagues,
but can he post that breakout season we’ve all been expecting?
I figured we would have seen a .280/28/90 season by now.
Players with similar stat lines: Adam LaRoche; Corey Hart;
Josh Hamilton
2011
2012
2013
2014
155
143
154
157
658
609
642
645
84
72
75
82
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.2
16.6
17.1
16.7
14.7
14.9
14.5
14.3
1.12
1.14
1.19
1.15
27
18
20
23
79
76
74
85
15.4 16.0%
19.1 11.5%
21.8 13.0%
19.3 14.9%
Just like Victor Martinez, Napoli will be saying goodbye to his
C eligibility for the 1st time this year. However, unlike Martinez, Napoli actually poses a skill set that can be used effectively
at the power corner. His aggressive approach at the plate, coupled with his strength, is conducive to 25-30 HR seasons (and
the Green Monster doesn’t hurt). His high-walk, high-whiff
rates are more useful in OBP leagues, but he also managed a
24.4 LD% last year, which helped him bat a respectable .259.
Players with similar stat lines: Josh Willingham; Josh Hamilton;
Mark Teixeira
5
3
3
2
.239
.252
.268
.270
.214
.257
.271
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
113
108
139
142
432
417
578
603
72
53
79
77
.263
.278
.301
.289
1.32
-0.06
1.73
2.40
130
209
130
90
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.7
30.0
32.4
30.7
13.4
13.4
12.6
13.1
0.95
0.97
0.95
1.56
30
24
23
27
75
56
92
86
19.6 25.4%
19.2 25.5%
24.4 19.0%
20.6 28.7%
4
1
1
0
.320
.227
.259
.260
.308
.255
.241
.270
.344
.273
.367
.324
3.71
-1.80
2.41
1.84
58
326
99
110
Victor Martinez | DET | Age: 35 | Rk: 20 (95)
Adam LaRoche | WAS | Age: 34 | Rk: 23 (118)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
With only 3 GS behind the plate last year, we can officially kiss Martinez’s catcher eligibility goodbye, and with just 11 GS at 1B it may
not be long until he’s a utility-only player. Along with his C eligibility goes a lot of his fantasy value as no one really wants to own
a contact-first, power-second 1B who’s 35 years old. After missing
all of 2012, Martinez showed that even at his advanced age he can
still hit .300 thanks to high contact rates, and batting in the middle of the order should provide him with ample RBI opportunities.
LaRoche is coming off a down year after 7 very consistent and
productive years. Over those 7 seasons, LaRoche was a lock for
.270/25/80, but he managed just .238/20/62 last year. The main
culprit? His splits vs. LHP. In 2012, LaRoche posted a .236 ISO vs.
both RHP and LHP, but last year his ISO was .115 vs. LHP and .184
vs. RHP. Those splits may stay split, but LaRoche still has been
one of the more consistent fantasy players over the last 8 years. It
was just last year he won our inaugural Battle of the ADPs bracket!
Players with similar stat lines: Yadier Molina; Pablo Sandoval;
Buster Posey
2011
2012
2013
2014
Players with similar stat lines: Carlos Santana; Mike Napoli;
Josh Hamilton
145
159
157
595
668
653
76
68
65
12
14
14
103
83
89
1
0
1
.330
.301
.300
.293
.285
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
43
154
152
154
177
647
590
617
15
76
70
77
2011 8.6
2012
2013 9.3
2014 10.7
7.7
8.1
8.1
1.29
1.19
1.57
24.2
22.3
19.6
7.3%
7.2%
8.8%
.343
.313
.317
3.89
2.33
2.31
53
100
95
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.9
21.3
22.2
17.8
14.1
10.4
12.2
12.0
1.11
0.76
0.89
1.38
3
33
20
24
15
100
62
82
19.1 6.8%
22.3 17.0%
21.7 12.6%
23.8 18.9%
1
1
4
2
.172
.271
.237
.260
.229
.265
.251
.260
.205
.298
.277
.282
-6.88
3.22
-0.17
1.70
1121
71
220
118
Michael Cuddyer | COL | Age: 35 | Rk: 21 (96)
Corey Hart | SEA | Age: 32 | Rk: 24 (120)
Position: 1B/OF
Position: 1B
It’s hard to imagine a season going any better for Cuddyer than
last year. He posted a career-high .389 BABIP, which led to not
only his first .300+ BA season, but also an NL batting title. It
should be no surprise that Cuddyer was able to post monster
numbers with half his games coming at Coors Field, where he
managed a .356/.414/.582 slash, but it’s tough to believe that he
will replicate career-highs across the board again in 2014, but the
Coors Field effect is definitely a nice boost to his fantasy value.
Players with similar stat lines: Chase Utley; Marlon Byrd;
Xander Bogaerts
2011
2012
2013
2014
139
101
130
135
584
394
540
559
70
53
74
71
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.3
19.8
18.5
17.9
8.2
8.1
8.5
8.1
1.44
1.57
1.65
1.21
20
16
20
20
70
58
84
80
17.8 13.6%
20.4 18.2%
20.2 16.9%
23.4 14.9%
A lot of Hart’s 2014 value rests in his precious knees, which
were operated on last summer. It’s likely he will start off the
season primarily as a DH then gradually move over to 1B
and maybe play some OF. After sitting out all of 2013, it’s
likely Hart will slip down plenty of draft boards, which allows you to make the shrewd draft pick in the late rounds.
When healthy, Hart can hit for power (career .215 ISO) and
he doesn’t kill you in batting average either (career .276).
Players with similar stat lines: Brian McCann; Will Middlebrooks;
Kendrys Morales
11
8
10
8
.284
.260
.331
.280
.273
.300
.309
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
130
149
142
551
622
587
80
91
67
.312
.287
.382
.307
2.15
-0.94
5.09
2.26
96
261
32
96
2011 20.7
2012 24.3
2013
2014 23.3
9.3
7.1
8.5
1.28
0.99
0.87
26
30
24
63
83
81
20.6 19.7%
19.3 18.1%
19.2 14.8%
7
5
3
.285
.270
.270
.294
.268
.280
.323
.318
.314
2.55
3.23
1.69
82
70
120
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Jonathan Lucroy | MIL | Age: 28 | Rk: 25 (121)
Anthony Rizzo | CHC | Age: 24 | Rk: 28 (140)
Position: C/1B
Position: 1B
A well-rounded hitter who’d been knocking on the door for a couple
years, particularly with his great per-game production in 2012, Lucroy finally put together his breakout campaign in 2013. He ranked
3rd among all catchers on the year and was 1 of just 2 to top 80 RBI
(Yadier Molina was the other). Will Lucroy follow up his solid season with a repeat campaign? Why not! His K% and BB% both improved last season, and he’s a line drive machine. It’s not out of the
realm of possibility to say Lucroy should be number 2 on this list.
A lot of noise has been generated thanks to Rizzo’s .233 BA in
2013 and many will point to his .255 BABIP as the main culprit. Sure, it’s a part of the puzzle, but he also struggles to hit
left-handed pitching (.189 BA last year, but with some oddly stark
home/road splits). There’s no doubt that Rizzo has the power
and contact skills to become a very good fantasy player and we
may not be far from a 30 HR season, but he will continue to be
held back until he can somewhat figure out left-handed pitching.
Players with similar stat lines: Aramis Ramirez; Pablo Sandoval;
Jason Castro
2011
2012
2013
2014
136
96
147
141
468
346
580
565
45
46
59
61
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.2
12.7
11.9
12.0
6.2
6.4
7.9
7.6
1.23
1.11
1.03
0.99
12
12
18
17
59
58
82
81
24.2 10.7%
21.1 11.7%
22.8 10.3%
20.7 9.9%
Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Moss; Nelson Cruz;
Mark Teixeira
2
4
9
6
.265
.320
.280
.290
.265
.297
.296
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
49
87
160
160
153
368
690
686
9
44
71
75
.317
.338
.290
.301
-1.73
-0.64
2.15
1.69
307
246
110
121
2011
2012
2013
2014
30.1
16.8
18.4
19.2
13.7
7.3
11.0
11.5
0.97
1.51
1.12
1.60
1
15
23
27
9
48
80
78
13.4 2.8%
24.4 18.1%
19.6 12.6%
20.1 20.3%
2
3
6
4
.141
.285
.233
.250
.165
.321
.259
.270
.210
.310
.258
.274
-7.66
-1.70
0.78
1.36
1222
314
167
140
Mark Teixeira | NYY | Age: 34 | Rk: 26 (125)
Kendrys Morales | FA | Age: 31 | Rk: 29 (148)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
There are questions surrounding Teixeira’s wrist injury and
whether he can be productive coming off major surgery at 34
years old. He’s still capable of hitting 30 HR with 90 RBI given the Yankees’ lineup makeover. There’s a chance Teixeira
is extremely undervalued in drafts as many have completely written him off, and that makes him great buy-low option.
The one part of his game that shouldn’t rebound is his batting average. Right now he’s a .250 hitter through and through.
Where Morales ends up for 2014 will have a significant impact
on his draft day value, so as he sits in free agency we can only
talk about the skills he brings to the table in a full-time role.
Last year, he didn’t set the world on fire with his .277/.336/.479
slash and 23 HR, but it was still good for 20th-best among 1B.
No matter where he lands in 2014 he should be able to contribute in four of the five fantasy categories, which makes him
a valuable commodity, especially in the middle-to-late rounds.
Players with similar stat lines: Josh Willingham; Brandon Moss;
Mike Napoli
2011
2012
2013
2014
156
123
15
138
684
524
63
600
90
66
5
74
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.1
15.8
30.2
17.2
11.1
10.3
12.7
11.3
0.75
1.04
0.67
0.91
39
24
3
28
111
84
12
88
18.3 17.1%
19.5 16.0%
28.6 20.0%
23.5 17.8%
Players with similar stat lines: Brian McCann; Corey Hart;
Matt Adams
4
2
0
1
.248
.251
.151
.250
.266
.282
.235
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
134
156
144
522
657
578
61
64
64
.239
.250
.156
.257
4.39
0.55
-6.89
1.60
43
178
1005
125
2011
2012 22.2
2013 17.4
2014 18.7
5.9
7.5
6.7
1.81
1.50
2.26
22
23
24
73
80
76
20.5 21.0%
18.8 14.5%
22.4 25.4%
0
0
0
.273
.277
.280
.289
.277
.280
.315
.309
.300
0.26
1.92
1.22
194
120
148
Brandon Belt | SF | Age: 26 | Rk: 27 (132)
Brandon Moss | OAK | Age: 30 | Rk: 30 (151)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
Belt’s offense took a nice step forward in 2013; he was able to maintain
his .351 BABIP, he lowered his strikeout rate, and he increased his ISO
from .146 to .193. With that improvement, his walk rate also fell, but we
can deal with that since he still was able to post a .360 OBP. There’s no
reason to believe that Belt shouldn’t keep improving at the age of 26 and
he should eclipse the 20 HR mark as soon as 2014. The one thing holding him back is his ballpark, which currently suppresses homers with
a 64 park factor for RHB. I think Pablo Sandoval bats 3rd and not Belt.
Moss’ biggest flaw is his inability to hit left-handed pitchers -.200/.261/.388 slash in 2013 -- which will limit his PA. However, he
still managed 30 HR last year despite just 505 PA, which is extremely impressive. Just imagine if he could hit the 585-600 PA mark!
That won’t happen until he can hit all types of pitching, but if you
can deal with the non-random benchings throughout the season
(you’ll know when they’re coming), Moss should provide you with
great power with solid R/RBI totals for where he’s going in drafts.
Players with similar stat lines: Nolan Arenado; Kole Calhoun;
Khris Davis
2011
2012
2013
2014
63
145
150
148
209
472
571
556
21
47
76
68
2011
2012
2013
2014
27.3
22.5
21.9
21.0
9.6
11.4
9.1
10.1
0.96
1.04
0.83
1.47
9
7
17
19
18
56
67
64
13.8 15.8%
25.6 6.2%
24.3 10.6%
20.7 16.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Mark Teixeira; Anthony Rizzo;
Alfonso Soriano
3
12
5
8
.225
.275
.289
.290
.220
.259
.272
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
5
84
145
140
6
296
505
500
0
48
73
71
.273
.351
.351
.328
-5.17
-1.35
2.15
1.48
698
289
109
132
2011
2012
2013
2014
33.3
30.4
27.7
29.0
0.0
8.8
9.9
9.8
1.00
0.72
0.58
2.23
0
21
30
28
0
52
87
82
0.0
0.0%
21.5 25.9%
18.1 18.8%
22.1 43.0%
0
1
4
3
.000
.291
.256
.250
-.010
.272
.237
.250
.000
.359
.301
.283
-0.92
2.96
1.19
259
78
151
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Ike Davis | NYM | Age: 27 | Rk: 31 (157)
Yonder Alonso | SD | Age: 27 | Rk: 34 (222)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
One of the all-time great baseball minds, Ron Shandler once said,
“Once you display a skill, you own it.” If this is true, somewhere in
there Davis still owns the power stroke that made us salivate over just
1 season ago. Unfortunately, 2 straight seasons with batting averages under .230 has put a dent in any consistent playing time. If he can
get some BABIP luck there’s a .250/25/80 hitter in there somewhere,
and his career 12.1 BB% makes him a great OBP league option.
Alonso got off to a hot start in 2013 before a broken hand derailed
any hopes of a breakout season. He returned in the 2nd half, but
the effects of the injury kept him from hitting any HR. He did
more than doubled his BB/K rate (0.47 to 1.13), and with a full
offseason to recover from surgery and a full-time role in San Diego, Alonso seems poised for a true breakout campaign, especially
if he can pair his health with his newfound discipline at the plate.
Players with similar stat lines: Oswaldo Arcia; J.J. Hardy;
Matt Adams
2011
2012
2013
2014
36
156
103
141
149
584
377
563
20
66
37
61
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.8
24.1
26.8
24.5
11.4
10.4
15.1
12.3
1.02
0.97
1.29
1.13
7
32
9
27
25
90
33
80
17.0 17.1%
21.1 21.1%
19.8 11.8%
20.7 22.5%
Players with similar stat lines: James Loney; David Freese;
Chris Johnson
0
0
4
2
.302
.227
.205
.260
.259
.263
.210
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
47
155
97
150
98
619
375
612
9
47
34
58
5
9
6
13
15
62
45
70
0
3
6
3
.330
.273
.281
.280
.296
.282
.257
.270
.344
.246
.268
.296
-4.42
0.45
-4.55
1.11
582
187
588
157
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.4
16.3
12.5
13.9
10.2
10.0
8.5
9.0
1.17
1.44
1.39
1.40
22.4
23.7
20.5
26.4
20.8%
6.4%
6.2%
9.5%
.387
.318
.306
.305
-5.41
-1.77
-2.35
-0.17
739
323
360
222
Nick Swisher | CLE | Age: 33 | Rk: 32 (172)
Chris Carter | HOU | Age: 27 | Rk: 35 (223)
Position: 1B/OF
Position: 1B/OF
Swisher is the ultimate “doesn’t wow you” player and in 2013
that was especially true thanks to a shoulder injury that bothered him all season. Last year was a testament to his desire to
stay on the field, but it definitely affected his performance, especially with his power vs. righties as he managed just a .150
ISO (career .220). His career 13.2 BB% makes him a great option in OBP leagues and it should also keep him near the top of
the Indians lineup, which will optimize his plate appearances.
Carter’s batted ball profile actually has a lot of similarities to Chris Davis’ as both players like to swing and miss but also hit a lot of fly balls (and
HR) when they do make contact. To harness that raw power potential,
Cartner needs to offer at more pitches and make more solid contact.
In 2013, Carter swung at just 46% of pitches, made contact just 65.4%
of the time, and also popped up 12.1% of his fly balls. If he can improve all three of those areas, we might be looking at Chris Davis light.
Players with similar stat lines: Jedd Gyorko; Justin Smoak;
Anthony Rizzo
2011
2012
2013
2014
150
148
145
145
635
624
634
630
81
75
74
85
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.7
22.6
21.8
21.9
15.0
12.3
12.1
13.0
0.99
0.99
0.98
0.96
23
24
22
24
85
93
63
70
21.8 14.3%
22.3 15.4%
23.1 13.7%
21.2 15.8%
Players with similar stat lines: Adam Dunn; Mark Teixeira;
Colby Rasmus
2
2
1
2
.260
.272
.246
.250
.272
.256
.264
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
15
67
148
152
46
260
585
615
2
38
64
63
.295
.324
.288
.281
1.70
2.08
0.30
0.82
118
111
190
172
2011
2012
2013
2014
43.5
31.9
36.2
34.3
4.3
15.0
12.0
13.0
0.36
0.75
0.66
0.73
0
16
29
31
0
39
82
87
37.5 0.0%
20.3 25.4%
22.4 20.7%
17.5 22.5%
0
0
2
1
.136
.239
.223
.230
.173
.247
.215
.230
.250
.295
.311
.283
-3.45
0.66
-0.18
466
174
223
Matt Adams | STL | Age: 25 | Rk: 33 (177)
Daniel Nava | BOS | Age: 31 | Rk: 36 (225)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
All everyone talks about with Adams is his amazing power potential, but just because he looks like he can take down a 64 oz. steak in
one sitting doesn’t make him a guaranteed 30+ HR. There’s 2 factors working against him here: (1) His playing time is likely to be
streaky as the Cardinals currently have Allen Craig at 1B and Oscar
Taveras lurking in AAA, and (2) Adams is an extreme pull hitter
who is vulnerable to both defensive shifts and left-handed pitching.
While he has some power upside, there’s a lot of risk here as well.
In his first fullish season, Nava showed that he can provide solid
rate stats, but the counting stats suffered a bit due to both his lack
of a consistent starting job and being buried near the bottom of the
lineup for half the time in 2013. He’s stuck in a platoon situation
with Jonny Gomes, but Nava has the edge as he’s much better against
right-handed pitchers, who make up 2/3 of the league’s arms, and
Boston might need his OBP skills leading off (sometimes) . While
Nava isn’t horrible against lefties he will continue to lose PA to Gomes.
Players with similar stat lines: J.J. Hardy; Ike Davis;
Will Middlebrooks
2011
2012
2013
2014
27
108
131
91
319
556
8
46
64
2011
2012 26.4
2013 25.1
2014 25.0
5.5
7.2
6.7
1.13
1.23
1.32
2
17
26
13
51
73
17.7 8.3%
19.4 21.8%
19.4 20.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Jed Lowrie; Anthony Rendon;
Omar Infante
0
0
0
.244
.284
.260
.224
.273
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
88
134
131
317
536
521
38
77
72
6
12
12
33
66
58
3
0
2
.243
.303
.280
.249
.289
.280
.317
.337
.306
-6.84
-0.95
0.67
1078
263
177
2011
2012 19.9
2013 17.4
2014 18.0
11.7
9.5
10.2
1.00
0.86
1.09
23.3
26.1
18.6
7.6%
8.2%
8.8%
.295
.352
.322
-4.39
1.55
-0.20
565
141
225
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James Loney | TB | Age: 30 | Rk: 37 (226)
Ryan Howard | PHI | Age: 34 | Rk: 40 (245)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
Poor Loney can’t seem to get away from those pitcher’s parks. He
went from Dodger Stadium to Tropicana Field, but lthankfully his
high contact rates have allowed him to post a career .285 BA and
.340 OBP. Those are solid rate numbers, but unfortunately his lack
of power has him buried in every lineup he’s been in, which really
limits his couting stats. Last year Loney hit a career-high .299 thanks
to .326 BABIP and 29.8 LD%. Those numbers are likely to regress
towards his career norms, but they highlight the value he can have.
Players with similar stat lines: Yonder Alonso; David Freese;
Chris Johnson
2011
2012
2013
2014
158
144
158
152
582
465
598
548
56
37
54
56
2011
2012
2013
2014
11.5
11.0
12.9
12.8
7.2
6.0
7.4
7.1
1.09
1.56
1.51
1.38
12
6
13
13
65
41
75
71
22.4 6.9%
24.7 5.3%
29.8 9.8%
27.8 10.2%
Yes, 26 HR is an optimistic projection for Howard, who’s
slugged just 25 HR over the last two seasons combined,
but 26 HR in 476 PA is only a little higher than the rate he
put up in 2012. Last year Howard saw his HR/FB rate fall
to 14.9%, far from his normal low-to-mid-20s, so a resurgence of some sort is all but guaranteed should the
Philly 1B be able to stay on the field for 3/4 of the season.
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Dominguez; Nelson Cruz;
Garrett Jones
4
0
3
3
.288
.249
.299
.280
.285
.295
.337
.310
2011
2012
2013
2014
152
71
80
119
644
292
317
476
81
28
34
51
.309
.269
.326
.301
0.08
-4.44
1.28
-0.20
198
571
149
226
2011
2012
2013
2014
26.7
33.9
30.0
28.8
11.6
8.6
7.3
9.0
1.03
1.39
1.03
1.45
33
14
11
26
116
56
43
71
20.8 21.7%
25.6 27.5%
23.9 14.9%
20.9 26.2%
1
0
0
2
.253
.219
.266
.250
.262
.279
.255
.260
.303
.287
.349
.291
3.55
-3.86
-2.89
-0.47
62
507
412
245
Justin Smoak | SEA | Age: 27 | Rk: 38 (233)
Adam Lind | TOR | Age: 30 | Rk: 41 (247)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
Smoak posted career bests in several categories last year: R (53),
HR (20), BA (.238), OBP (.334), SLG (.412), BB% (12.3), and HR/
FB (13.1%). It’s not so much that I don’t expect him to remain at
those levels, it’s that those levels aren’t really that valuable. For all
that’s made of Smoak’s 2nd-half power surge in 2013 (12 HR in
61 games), he only batted .203 during that span and he plays in a
tough park. Smoak should continue to get better, but he’ll need to get
much better to be universally rosterable. And no, he isn’t a sleeper.
Lind has 20 HR power and is good for a .270ish average with
modest R and RBI totals. While his average has fluctuated
as high as .305 (2009) and as low as .237 (2010), there’s a relatively good amount of stability in Lind’s line. It’s not spectacular, but it can be useful in spurts. If he doesn’t figure out how
to be at least semi-respectable against left-hended pitching he’ll find himself in a strict platoon situation, which could
help his rate stats, but would definitely hurt his counting stats.
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Wieters; Matt Davidson;
Nelson Cruz
2011
2012
2013
2014
123
132
131
143
489
535
521
550
38
49
53
62
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.5
20.7
22.8
21.3
11.2
9.2
12.3
12.5
1.02
0.94
0.76
1.09
15
19
20
24
55
51
50
75
13.8 10.8%
18.2 12.0%
19.6 13.1%
18.2 18.2%
Players with similar stat lines: Justin Morneau; Cody Ross;
Mitch Moreland
0
1
0
1
.234
.217
.238
.250
.201
.225
.243
.220
2011
2012
2013
2014
125
93
143
133
542
353
521
515
56
28
67
51
26
11
23
20
87
45
67
66
1
0
1
1
.251
.255
.288
.270
.288
.240
.290
.280
.273
.242
.278
.270
-3.12
-3.34
-1.69
-0.27
437
456
308
233
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.7
17.3
19.8
20.0
5.9
8.2
9.8
8.7
1.05
1.40
1.40
1.04
21.8
17.1
21.3
19.9
17.0%
12.1%
19.2%
15.3%
.265
.282
.324
.303
0.63
-3.93
1.89
-0.51
159
519
122
247
Mitch Moreland | TEX | Age: 28 | Rk: 39 (235)
Garrett Jones | MIA | Age: 33 | Rk: 42 (255)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B/OF
When Prince Fielder was traded to the Rangers, Moreland was instantly declared the biggest loser (not the show, though Fielder could be a
contestant). While it’s true that Fielder clogs things up a bit at first base
(I swear that wasn’t a fat joke), it’s not like Moreland completely loses
out. He’ll still receive the bulk of Texas’ DH AB this year, and he’s coming off another season of improved HR/FB rates. This is when you take
some risks, like going to the bathroom while dining out with Fielder
and hoping your food is there when you get back (that was a fat joke).
Players with similar stat lines: Cody Ross; Adam Lind;
Matt Adams
2011
2012
2013
2014
134
114
147
135
512
357
518
500
60
41
60
58
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.0
19.9
22.6
19.4
7.6
6.4
8.7
8.0
1.03
1.12
1.09
2.18
16
15
23
22
51
50
60
67
18.0 10.6%
20.0 15.3%
17.3 16.5%
21.9 26.8%
Jones hit 27 HR in 2012, then slumped to just 15 last year. The
culprit? A career-worst 35.9 FB%. Odds are that rate improves
in 2014. Jones isn’t a great contributor and has very limited upside, thanks to a complete inability to hit left-handed pitching.
Last year, 94.7% of his PA came against right-handed pitching so
his struggles at the plate are even more alarming. That being said,
he’s slated to be the power-starved Marlins’ cleanup hitter so he
could provide some decent value late in the draft in deeper leagues.
Matt Wieters
2
1
0
1
.259
.275
.232
.260
.249
.268
.244
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
148
145
144
144
478
515
440
545
51
68
41
56
16
27
15
21
58
86
51
77
6
2
2
2
.243
.274
.233
.250
.234
.284
.257
.260
.290
.306
.255
.285
-1.22
-2.20
-0.82
-0.30
268
354
254
235
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.8
20.0
23.0
22.2
10.0
6.4
7.0
7.3
0.79
0.96
1.12
1.30
19.5
18.5
23.9
21.2
11.0%
17.1%
13.6%
16.6%
.283
.293
.271
.284
-1.49
1.83
-2.57
-0.63
285
119
383
255
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Adam Dunn | CHW | Age: 34 | Rk: 43 (257)
Paul Konerko | CHW | Age: 38 | Rk: 46 (281)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
Dunn has struck out over 30% of the time in 4 straight seasons
and he’s abysmal defensively. Thankfully the DH position exists
and HR are worth their weight in gold. While Jose Abreu complicates Chicago’s 1B/DH picture, Dunn’s left-handed power will be
important for the White Sox, and for all his flaws he was still an
above average offensive contributor last year. Paul Konerko, not
Dunn, will be the guy who gets hit the most by Abreu’s presence.
Jose Abreu is the future of first base in Chicago, but there are definite questions surrounding him as he hasn’t even stepped foot on
MLB soil yet. In addition there were some encouraging signs that
portend a rebound for the soon-to-be 38-year-old Konerko. Yes,
he batted just .244 last year, but 14.2 K% was right in line with his
recent seasons, and his 24.4 LD% was Konerko’s 3rd-best since
2002! That may not be enough to resurrect his fantasy value, but
should Konerko get a chance, he’s more than capable of capitalizing.
Players with similar stat lines: Chris Carter; Colby Rasmus;
Brandon Moss
2011
2012
2013
2014
122
151
149
145
496
649
607
597
36
87
60
67
2011
2012
2013
2014
35.7
34.2
31.1
34.3
15.1
16.2
12.5
15.4
0.68
0.78
0.91
0.81
11
41
34
30
42
96
86
82
20.0 9.6%
22.4 29.3%
19.5 23.8%
20.7 26.2%
Players with similar stat lines: Chris Johnson; Oscar Taveras;
A.J. Pierzynski
0
2
1
2
.159
.204
.219
.220
.158
.250
.249
.220
2011
2012
2013
2014
149
144
126
98
639
598
520
376
69
66
41
41
.240
.246
.266
.264
-6.71
1.65
0.90
-0.69
1085
129
164
257
2011
2012
2013
2014
13.9
13.9
14.2
14.4
12.1
9.4
8.7
9.8
0.91
1.13
0.92
1.04
31
26
12
16
105
75
54
57
22.4 16.4%
22.3 15.8%
24.4 7.7%
20.8 15.7%
1
0
0
2
.300
.298
.244
.290
.291
.299
.282
.290
.304
.312
.265
.295
4.49
2.00
-2.75
-1.41
41
116
396
281
Chris Johnson | ATL | Age: 29 | Rk: 44 (260)
Gaby Sanchez | PIT | Age: 30 | Rk: 47 (291)
Position: 1B/3B
Position: 1B
Johnson is not a .320 hitter — you know that — but he is a
.280+ hitter. His 27.0 LD% was a blistering rate and it’s not far
off his career mark of 24.9%. In short, Johnson isn’t as good as
he was last year, but he’s pretty darn close. Unfortunately he
doesn’t offer much beyond a solid batting average. A 1.65 GB/
FB rate limits his power potential and his weak 0.25 BB/K rate
means he relies way too much on his BABIP for his fantasy value.
Players with similar stat lines: David Freese; Anthony Rendon;
Paul Konerko
2011
2012
2013
2014
107
136
142
138
405
528
547
534
32
48
54
49
2011
2012
2013
2014
24.0
25.0
21.2
22.1
4.0
5.9
5.3
5.6
1.52
1.13
1.65
1.54
7
15
12
14
42
76
68
63
23.2 8.0%
25.6 11.9%
27.0 10.9%
22.7 12.7%
Sanchez is extremely effective against left-handed pitching,
but his value pretty much ends there. If you’re in a deeper or NL-only leagues and wanted to create a true 1B platoon you could pair him up with someone like Garrett Jones,
who’s a cheap platoon specialist himself. However, Sanchez cannot hold up on his own in fantasy because there
just aren’t enough left-handed pitchers for him to exploit.
Players with similar stat lines: Gordon Beckham; David Murphy;
Juan Uribe
2
5
0
2
.251
.281
.321
.280
.263
.270
.299
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
159
105
136
146
661
326
320
556
72
30
29
57
19
7
7
12
78
30
36
63
3
1
1
2
.266
.217
.254
.270
.253
.210
.260
.240
.317
.354
.394
.339
-3.83
-0.15
1.29
-0.84
519
216
147
260
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.7
17.2
15.9
16.5
11.2
7.7
13.8
11.7
0.80
0.97
0.89
0.90
20.0
16.8
22.7
21.0
8.9%
6.8%
7.8%
7.6%
.287
.245
.282
.297
1.00
-5.54
-4.00
-1.58
139
698
516
291
Justin Morneau | COL | Age: 33 | Rk: 45 (261)
Hunter Morris | MIL | Age: 25 | Rk: 48 (297)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
MORNEAU IS GOING TO COLORADO! Yeah, it’s exciting, but
does it add much value to the injury-prone, former MVP? Probably not. We projected him for a 538 PA, which is actually less
than he’s had in each of the last 2 years, but I’m not ready to say a
full season in Coors equals 25 HR and 90 RBI. The good news is
he won’t cost you a pretty penny if you want to wait and see. Better yet, if Morneau gets off to a hot start in April you can sell him
for a shinier dime! Or maybe one of those bi-centennial quarters...
Players with similar stat lines: Adam Lind; Cody Ross;
Welington Castillo
2011
2012
2013
2014
69
134
152
130
288
570
635
538
19
63
62
52
2011
2012
2013
2014
15.3
17.9
17.3
17.3
6.6
8.6
7.9
8.9
0.76
1.13
1.07
1.00
4
19
17
19
30
77
77
61
18.5 3.9%
21.8 12.5%
21.2 9.6%
26.9 14.1%
The only 2 players standing between Morris and a full-time
role for the Brew Crew are Juan Francisco and Mark Reynolds. Those two names shouldn’t worry you, but what should is
that Morris — despite showing great power potential in the minors — stuggles mightily against southpaws. That’s why even if
Morris were to luck into a full-time role, the Brewers would still
platoon as the youngster acclimates to the majors. He’s a name
to have in the back of your mind, but don’t go crazy on draft day.
Players with similar stat lines: Jarrod Saltalamacchia; Lonnie Chisenhall;
Mike Moustakas
0
1
0
2
.227
.267
.259
.270
.211
.287
.264
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
112
422
51
.257
.294
.290
.293
-5.68
0.09
0.22
-0.86
779
202
196
261
2011
2012
2013
2014 23.7
6.9
1.42
18
67
21.1 20.5%
2
.250
.250
.278
-1.78
297
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Michael Morse | SF | Age: 32 | Rk: 49 (315)
Lucas Duda | NYM | Age: 28 | Rk: 52 (340)
Position: 1B/OF
Position: 1B/OF
In terms of fantasy value, there probably wasn’t a worse place
for Morse to land than San Francisco. A .280-.290 hitter when
everything is going right, Morse finds himself batting 7th
in one of the 3 toughest hitter’s parks with some solid outfield competition coming off the bench. It will be interesting to see if Morse, who’s called the trainer’s table his “cot”
on occasion, will hold up with a full-time role in the outfield.
He’d be much better suited as a DH somewhere in the AL.
With the additions of Curtis Granderson and Chris Young in
the OF and the late-season resurgence of Ike Davis at 1B, it
seems as if Duda has gotten lost in the shuffle. He he’s disappointed for 2 straight seasons, and unless he really dazzles in spring training it will be tough to see where Duda
really fits in the 2014 picture. He has decent power (career .178 ISO) and on-base skills (career 11.3 BB%), but he
hasn’t been able to harness those skills in a meaningful way.
Players with similar stat lines: Lonnie Chisenhall; Hunter Morris;
John Mayberry
2011
2012
2013
2014
146
102
88
113
575
430
337
455
73
53
34
48
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.9
22.6
25.8
23.7
6.3
3.7
6.2
6.2
1.21
2.25
1.25
1.10
31
18
13
16
95
62
27
68
19.5 21.2%
20.1 23.4%
19.5 16.0%
18.5 13.6%
Players with similar stat lines: Nate Freiman; Kyle Blanks;
Josmil Pinto
2
0
0
0
.303
.291
.215
.250
.282
.295
.243
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
100
121
100
94
347
459
384
345
38
43
42
40
.344
.339
.254
.328
4.32
-0.48
-4.50
-2.12
46
231
580
315
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.4
26.1
26.6
26.1
9.5
11.1
14.3
11.9
0.79
0.83
0.66
1.49
10
15
15
13
50
57
33
40
22.5 9.3%
22.5 12.5%
19.8 14.3%
18.2 19.6%
1
1
0
9
.292
.239
.223
.270
.272
.252
.224
.250
.326
.301
.276
.322
-2.02
-2.86
-3.61
-2.64
332
411
484
340
Mark Reynolds | MIL | Age: 30 | Rk: 50 (323)
Kyle Blanks | SD | Age: 27 | Rk: 53 (348)
Position: 1B/3B
Position: 1B/OF
Now in Milwaukee, Reynolds probably won’t get a shot at a fulltime job mostly because his 1 skill is slipping away from him.
His ISO (.173) dipped under .200 and his slugging percentage
(.393) dipped under .400 for the 1st time in his career. We have
him projected for 487 PA, which is probably on the high end,
but in Milwaukee he can should reach the 20 HR mark once
again. We all know where that batting average is going to end up,
but if you play in OBP leagues he could add some value there.
Power potential doesn’t play in PETCO. Have you heard that before? Blanks could be a 20-25 HR player in almost any other park,
but in San Diego I have a hard time expecting more than 15. Given
Blanks’ poor plate discipline stats last year — 6.8 BB%, 27.6 K% —
I’ll need to see something more before I believe in him. He’s going to
find it difficult to accrue PA at 1B as long as Yonder Alonso stays on
the field, which means he’ll have to look to the OF for playing time.
Players with similar stat lines: Trevor Plouffe; Dan Uggla;
Evan Gattis
2011
2012
2013
2014
155
135
135
127
620
538
504
487
84
65
55
59
2011
2012
2013
2014
31.6
29.6
30.6
32.2
12.1
13.6
10.1
10.5
0.82
0.87
0.93
2.19
37
23
21
21
86
69
67
62
13.2 22.7%
20.4 18.1%
18.2 16.9%
21.7 17.0%
Players with similar stat lines: Henry Urrutia; Nate Freiman;
Raul Ibanez
6
1
3
2
.221
.221
.220
.230
.215
.235
.219
.220
2011
2012
2013
2014
55
4
88
97
190
6
308
387
21
0
31
38
.266
.282
.282
.284
2.05
-1.37
-1.08
-2.22
101
291
273
323
2011
2012
2013
2014
26.8
33.3
27.6
24.5
8.4
16.7
6.8
7.8
0.89
0.50
1.43
1.36
7
0
8
14
26
0
35
45
15.7 13.0%
0.0
0.0%
22.3 12.7%
17.2 16.4%
2
0
1
2
.229
.200
.243
.270
.217
.043
.262
.270
.281
.333
.317
.325
-5.03
-7.79
-4.07
-2.90
686
1199
529
348
John Mayberry | PHI | Age: 30 | Rk: 51 (325)
Jordan Pacheco | COL | Age: 28 | Rk: 54 (349)
Position: 1B/OF
Position: C/1B
Philadelphia’s OF is still in flux and Ryan Howard is always an injury risk
at 1B, so it’s hard to tell exactly from where Mayberry’s AB will come.
We know he’s good enough to earn 400-450 PA with the potential for
more, and I’d expect more power than last year’s disappointing 11 HR
showing. His 11.3% HR/FB rate was lower than we should expect from
a player with Mayberry’s raw strength. He has the upside of 20-22 HR
and maybe more if he somehow comes into near-full playing time.
In 2012, Pacheco batted .309 across 505 PA -- a 300+ catcher-eligible player with a little speed who plays for the Rockies is pretty
much the definition of “sleeper.” Pacheco was targeted heavily last
year, but he collapsed. All is not lost, though, and we can’t just forget
the skills Pacheco displayed in 2012. He’s not a .239 hitter, crushing
line drives 25% of the time, and he still plays in Coors. A super utility pinch hitter, I don’t know where Pacheco’s PA will come from,
but he’ll get enough to have some deep league value with his BA.
Players with similar stat lines: Jarrod Saltalamacchia; Mike Moustakas;
Mike Zunino
2011
2012
2013
2014
104
149
134
132
296
479
384
417
37
53
47
50
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.6
23.2
23.4
21.3
8.8
7.1
7.0
8.2
1.03
1.83
1.16
2.14
15
14
11
17
49
46
39
58
17.8 17.4%
19.9 14.9%
20.5 11.3%
18.9 24.0%
Players with similar stat lines: Lorenzo Cain; Jon Jay;
Ryan Sweeney
8
1
5
2
.273
.245
.227
.250
.262
.275
.239
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
21
132
95
122
88
505
262
465
5
51
23
44
2
5
1
6
14
54
22
47
0
7
0
2
.286
.309
.239
.280
.307
.300
.288
.280
.293
.296
.273
.273
-1.46
-2.79
-2.97
-2.29
283
405
419
325
2011
2012
2013
2014
10.2
12.1
14.5
13.3
3.4
4.4
3.8
4.7
2.60
1.36
1.89
0.98
27.0
26.4
25.4
20.3
13.3%
3.8%
1.9%
3.6%
.301
.344
.278
.315
-6.23
-0.76
-5.82
-2.93
911
252
765
349
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Casey McGehee | MIA | Age: 31 | Rk: 55 (352)
Mike Olt | CHC | Age: 25 | Rk: 58 (373)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
McGehee took off for Japan in 2013 and is now back in Miami
and slated to start full time at 3B. In his 4 MLB seasons, McGehee stuggled to make solid contact (career 17.3 LD%) and his
defense left a lot to be desired. It will be interesting to see just
how long he will stay in a full-time role given his lack of value
on both the offensive and defensive side. He’s likely not worth
your time unless you’re in a deep mixed or NL-only league.
Olt has just 40 PA of experience at the major league level, but he still makes for a nice post-hype sleeper. His 2013
season was basically a toss out as he was dealing with vision issues and a concussion. There’s no real spot for him
on the Cubs 2014 roster, but if he were to make the club it
would be at 3B. He has plenty of power and the patience
at the plate to contribute, but he will likely strike out far
too often, thus keeping his batting average below average.
Ryan Ludwick
2011
2012
2013
2014
155
114
137
600
352
545
46
36
50
2011 17.3
2012 19.9
2013
2014 18.3
7.5
8.2
8.3
1.48
1.52
1.24
13
9
16
67
41
65
16.2 8.6%
15.5 10.7%
15.4 11.8%
Players with similar stat lines: John Buck; Russell Martin;
Darin Ruf
0
1
2
.223
.217
.230
.228
.225
.240
2011
2012
2013
2014
16
110
40
424
2
40
.249
.248
.258
-3.21
-4.72
-2.94
447
602
352
2011
2012 32.5
2013
2014 28.8
12.5
11.8
1.25
0.84
0
18
5
55
18.2 0.0%
17.7 17.8%
1
2
.152
.240
.206
.240
.227
.281
-3.29
373
Logan Morrison | SEA | Age: 26 | Rk: 56 (357)
Nate Freiman | OAK | Age: 27 | Rk: 59 (387)
Position: 1B
Position: 1B
I initially fell in love with Morrison as a prospect because of his great batting eye, but he’s been unable to
capitalize on those skills and spent more time on Twitter and the disabled list than fantasy starting lineups.
Despite his 1 year with a .221 ISO, his power has been
underwhelming and now that he’s in Seattle I’m not expecting it to get much better. At 26, he’s too young to give
up on completely, but my patience is running razor thin.
Brandon Moss has put together 2 great seasons from the
left side of the plate, but Oakland still needs his right-handed counterpart. Enter Freiman and make sure those doors
are big enough for his 6’8, 250-pound frame. There’s no
chance the Athletics outright bench Moss, which limits Freiman’s potential playing time, but I love his peripheral stats
should he get the chance. In just 162 PA vs. right-handed
pitching last year, he slashed .304/.352/.453 with a .149 ISO.
Players with similar stat lines: Travis d’Arnaud; Mike Zunino;
Russell Martin
2011
2012
2013
2014
123
93
85
125
525
334
333
503
54
30
32
48
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.9
17.4
16.8
17.5
10.3
9.3
11.4
10.9
1.37
1.01
1.49
1.28
23
11
6
14
72
36
36
61
18.0 18.1%
18.4 11.3%
20.3 7.9%
19.8 9.8%
Players with similar stat lines: Henry Urrutia; Kyle Blanks;
Jonathan Singleton
2
1
0
2
.247
.230
.242
.240
.273
.252
.236
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
.265
.248
.281
.265
-0.39
-4.65
-4.35
-3.00
220
592
564
357
2011
2012
2013 14.9
2014 14.1
80
95
208
304
10
37
6.7
9.2
0.98
1.30
4
12
24
41
23.6 6.5%
20.4 15.7%
0
2
.274
.270
.246
.270
.306
.278
-5.42
-3.48
694
387
Darin Ruf | PHI | Age: 27 | Rk: 57 (361)
Jesus Guzman | HOU | Age: 30 | Rk: 60 (411)
Position: 1B/OF
Position: 1B/OF
Like John Mayberry, Ruf is part of a clustered 1B/OF picture in Philadelphia. He has more severe strikeout problems (31.2 K% in 330 career PA) and is a terrible defensive
player, which will limit his playing time, but there’s a solid chance he earns a platoon situation with the Phillies.
Considering that Ruf ’s .231 ISO vs. right-handed pitching was significantly better than his .159 ISO vs. left-handed pitching there’s a real chance to harness his skills there.
Guzman is slated to start the season as a role player for the
Houston Astros. Yes, you heard that right. If you are drafting
him in a mixed league that is any shallower than 16 teams then
you have clearly just given up. His strikeout rate has increased
every season in the majors, which just shows that he isn’t figuring it out. Pair that inability to hit with a lack of playing
time and you have yourself a pretty crappy option for fantasy.
Players with similar stat lines: Andrew Lambo; Dayan Viciedo;
Oscar Taveras
2011
2012
2013
2014
12
73
85
2011
2012 32.4
2013 31.1
2014 29.6
37
293
361
4
36
38
5.4
11.3
10.5
0.90
1.00
1.03
3
14
15
10
30
56
17.4 30.0%
18.5 21.2%
19.8 19.5%
Players with similar stat lines: Ryan Flaherty; Ryan Raburn;
Hank Conger
0
0
2
.333
.247
.250
.257
.242
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
76
120
126
92
271
321
318
350
33
32
33
42
.400
.324
.307
-6.75
-3.39
-3.03
1067
466
361
2011
2012
2013
2014
15.9
22.1
24.8
25.4
8.1
9.0
8.5
8.0
1.16
1.06
1.16
2.28
5
9
9
11
44
48
35
46
22.0 6.8%
17.9 10.3%
21.5 11.8%
19.1 20.5%
9
3
3
2
.312
.247
.226
.250
.254
.236
.242
.250
.360
.297
.280
.298
-1.99
-3.69
-4.05
-3.88
329
492
525
411
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2013: Second Base Year in Review
We rated some of last year’s best Second Basemen on both consistency and statistical balance based on their 2013 performance (small sample
size alert!) and plopped them on a chart. Take a look!
Better
in H2H
More
consistency
Great
Player
Omar Infante
Dustin Pedroia
Martin Prado
Ian Kinsler
Ben Zobrist
Daniel Murphy
Robinson Cano
Jed Lowrie
Brandon Phillips
Less
balance
Matt Carpenter
More
balance
Brian Dozier
Jose Altuve
Chase Utley
Jason Kipnis
Bad
Player
Howie Kendrick
Less
consistency
Better
in Roto
Facebook
30.0%
25.0%
HR/FB
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
240
250
260
270
280
290
Average FB Distance
300
310
320
Facebook
.360
Unlucky
.340
.320
.300
.280
.260
.240
.220
Lucky
.200
.200
.220
.240
.260
.280
.300
.320
.340
.360
Batting Average
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Second Base 2014 Preview
Rk
Prospect
Team
Age
1 Arismendy Alcantara
CHC
22
2 Kolten Wong
STL
23
3 Mookie Betts
BOS
21
4 Rougned Odor
TEX
20
5 Tommy La Stella
ATL
25
ETA
Comments
With Javier Baez taking reps at 2B and 3B this spring it is still very much in question where
Late 2014 Alcantra may play long term. One thing is for sure he will be a threat to go 20/20 in the
middle infield with a very respectable average. The Cubs system is amazing
Where do the Cardinals keep getting these guys? Wong won’t be an all-star but he is a
Early 2014 sure thing to produce at a top 10 level at the position with a strong average and 15HR
10+ SB potential.
Eno Sarris’s love of the patient young infield prospect is well documented and with good
reason. Betts has a great approach at the plate perfectly honed for what the Red Sox
2015
want out of their young guys and he has a ton of speed to boot. This year could be a big
one for him.
With Profar and Andrus already up with the big club the biggest question for Odor is
2015
where his is going to play. Odor is solid but not fantastic at any one discipline he also has
to compete with Luis Sardinas in his own system.
Though never touted as a top prospect opportunity is knocking for La Stella. He doesn’t
Mid-2014 have much power but he shows great BB% and could be a great source of batting average
and runs right away not too dissimilar to Matt Carpenter.
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Player Name
Robinson Cano
Dustin Pedroia
Jason Kipnis
Daniel Murphy
Aaron Hill
Ben Zobrist
Jose Altuve
Matt Carpenter
Ian Kinsler
Chase Utley
Brandon Phillips
Martin Prado
Brian Dozier
Brett Lawrie
Jurickson Profar
$ Value
$24
$22
$21
$15
$15
$12
$12
$12
$9
$9
$9
$8
$7
$7
$3
Rank
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Player Name
Brad Miller
Jedd Gyorko
Nick Franklin
Omar Infante
Josh Rutledge
Jed Lowrie
Alexander Guerrero
Neil Walker
Howie Kendrick
Kolten Wong
Anthony Rendon
Dustin Ackley
Kelly Johnson
Jordy Mercer
Rafael Furcal
$ Value
$3
$2
$1
$1
$1
$1
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
A Closer Look...Second Base Superlatives
Superlative
Biggest Risk
Safest Bet
Mid-Round Sleeper
Late-Round Sleeper
Post-Hype Sleeper
Best Value Pick
Round I'll Draft 2B
Matt Commins
Ian Kinsler
Jason Kipnis
Aaron Hill
Omar Infante
Ben Zobrist
Neil Walker
Aaron Hill
Aaron Hill
Ian Kinsler
9th
Matt Carpenter
Daniel Murphy
Chase Utley
Jurickson Profar
Eric Broutman
Jason Kipnis
Robinson Cano
Chase Utley
Jurikson Profar
Brett Lawrie
Jurikson Profar
Robinson Cano
Howie Kendrick
Brett Lawrie
1st-4th
Aaron Hill
Ian Kinsler
Daniel Murphy
Jedd Gyorko
Paul Beck
Brandon Phillips
Howie Kendrick
Aaron Hill
Rickie Weeks
Jose Altuve
Anthony Rendon
Jurickson Profar
Dustin Ackley
Brandon Phillips
8th-12th
Ian Kinsler
Brian Dozier
Jason Kipnis
Jurickson Profar
Adam Nodiff
Jake Devereaux
Ian Kinsler
Ian Kinsler
Robinson Cano
Robinson Cano
Jed Lowrie
Aaron Hill
Nick Franklin
Anthony Rendon
Anthony Rendon Alexander Guerrero
Jedd Gyorko
Jurickson Profar
Martin Prado
Daniel Murphy
Ben Zobrist
Robinson Cano
Aaron Hill
Ian Kinsler
1st-2nd
1st
Brandon Phillips
Jedd Gyorko
Brian Dozier
Robinson Cano
Jason Kipnis
Dustin Pedroia
Alexander Guerrero
Jurickson Profar
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Robinson Cano | SEA | Age: 31 | Rk: 1 (20)
Daniel Murphy | NYM | Age: 29 | Rk: 4 (49)
Position: 2B
Position: 1B/2B
Cano may still be the top-ranked 2B, but the gap closed considerably
when he moved to Seattle. In New York he would’ve been a top 6-10
player overall, but now finds himself in the 18-20 range. Cano has never
been a fly ball hitter (career 31.0%), but in his last 2 years he’s failed to
reach 30%, which probably won’t translate well when he moves away
from that short right field porch. The fact that he may lose a couple HR
and score fewer R in an inferior lineup means no top 10 season for Cano.
Players with similar stat lines: Allen Craig; Troy Tulowitzki;
Freddie Freeman
2011
2012
2013
2014
159
161
160
155
681
697
681
674
104
105
81
84
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.1
13.8
12.5
12.3
5.6
8.8
9.5
10.5
1.51
1.89
1.49
1.61
28
33
27
24
118
94
107
92
22.3 17.0%
25.6 24.1%
26.0 17.3%
24.9 17.6%
Sometimes you don’t have to be an uber-talented player to
put up a great fantasy season and in 2013 Murphy showed exactly that. His above-average skills met plenty of opportunity
as he amassed a career-high 697 PA with the majority of them
coming in the 2nd spot in the order. Murphy actually posted worse walk and strikeout rates last year, but he stole 23 bases out of nowhere (previous career high was 10. Given his
89% success rate we should expect him to continue running.
Players with similar stat lines: Dustin Pedroia; Shane Victorino;
Shin-Soo Choo
8
3
7
4
.302
.313
.314
.300
.308
.355
.345
.340
.316
.326
.327
.315
6.99
6.43
6.72
5.28
17
15
11
20
2011
2012
2013
2014
109
156
161
160
423
612
697
685
49
62
92
86
6
6
13
14
49
65
78
71
5
10
23
19
.320
.291
.286
.300
.288
.312
.262
.290
2011 9.9
2012 13.4
2013 13.6
2014 13.4
5.7
5.9
4.6
5.4
1.51
2.03
1.17
1.40
21.9
24.3
21.3
19.8
5.5%
4.9%
6.3%
7.8%
.345
.329
.315
.324
-0.65
0.13
4.75
4.08
238
200
39
49
Dustin Pedroia | BOS | Age: 30 | Rk: 2 (23)
Aaron Hill | ARI | Age: 32 | Rk: 5 (56)
Position: 2B
Position: 2B
Pedroia played through a torn UCL in his thumb for most of
2013 and the effects can be seen in his power output. His 9
HR were his lowest since his rookie year and it was thanks to
both his fly ball rate dropping from 34.6% to 27.9% and HR/
FB rate dropping from 8.5% to 5.6%. After offseason surgery
to fix the issue, Pedroia should be 100% healthy, meaning we
can expect his power numbers to bounce back to normal levels.
Hill’s 9-year career has been as unpredictable as New England
weather. He’s been ranked anywhere from the 26th-best to 2ndbest 2B over just the last 3 seasons. However, what we can tell is
that ever since he’s moved to Arizona he’s been a .290-.300 hitter
thanks to consistent line drive rates, which have kept his BABIP
above .300. If he can stay healthy, his on-base skills should allow him to approach 90 R and whether he hits 20 HR or 30 HR is
up to whatever the fantasy gods have in store for this 32-year-old.
Players with similar stat lines: Daniel Murphy; Eric Hosmer;
David Wright
2011
2012
2013
2014
Players with similar stat lines: Josh Donaldson; Kyle Seager;
Eric Hosmer
159
141
160
157
731
623
724
716
102
81
91
90
21
15
9
16
91
65
84
85
26
20
17
17
.307
.290
.301
.290
.293
.290
.303
.300
2011
2012
2013
2014
137
156
87
141
571
668
362
643
61
93
45
91
2011 11.6
2012 9.6
2013 10.4
2014 11.2
11.8
7.7
10.1
10.5
1.43
1.32
1.81
1.54
19.1
19.8
21.6
20.4
11.4%
8.5%
5.6%
9.5%
.325
.300
.326
.313
7.13
2.78
4.71
5.08
15
89
41
23
2011
2012
2013
2014
12.6
12.9
13.3
13.8
6.1
7.8
8.0
7.8
0.87
0.77
0.97
0.88
8
26
11
21
61
85
41
68
21.2 4.2%
21.1 11.2%
21.8 9.9%
21.3 10.6%
21
14
1
8
.246
.302
.291
.290
.250
.288
.277
.270
.268
.317
.312
.312
-0.41
5.27
-1.73
3.74
222
24
312
56
Jason Kipnis | CLE | Age: 27 | Rk: 3 (42)
Ben Zobrist | TB | Age: 33 | Rk: 6 (65)
Position: 2B
Position: 2B/SS
Kipnis’ power/speed combination at 2B is unmatched as he’s
amassed more HR+SB (92) over the last 2 years than any
other second baseman. For reference, Jose Altuve was 2nd
with 80. He’s slated to bat 3rd for the Indians, which should
help him post solid R and RBI numbers. While he struggled a bit in the 2nd half in 2013, the biggest effect that
should have is bringing his cost down in drafts this spring.
Zobrist just barely reached the 10 GS mark (11) to gain the
much-vaunted SS eligibility in almost every league, and that’s a
big deal as there’s no doubt that his stat line is more valuable as a
middle infielder. He’s not a bad OF option as well, but in 2013 he
struggled in the power department, specifically from the right
side of the plate. His .083 ISO was in 2013 was 100 points lower than his .183 ISO in 2012. If he can fix whatever was ailing
him from that side then we should see a nice rebound in 2014.
Players with similar stat lines: Alex Rios; Desmond Jennings;
Alex Gordon
2011
2012
2013
2014
36
152
149
153
150
672
658
673
24
86
86
83
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.7
16.2
21.7
19.5
7.3
10.0
11.6
10.7
1.32
1.56
1.34
1.40
7
14
17
18
19
76
84
84
21.0 20.6%
22.9 9.7%
24.7 12.4%
23.7 12.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Justin Upton; Kyle Seager;
Jason Heyward
5
31
30
27
.272
.257
.284
.270
.272
.282
.281
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
156
157
157
154
674
668
698
680
99
88
77
93
.313
.291
.345
.313
-4.35
2.97
5.69
4.33
574
83
24
42
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.0
15.4
13.0
12.9
11.4
14.5
10.3
11.8
1.30
1.24
1.14
1.30
20
20
12
21
91
74
71
77
19.6 12.4%
21.8 12.5%
19.7 6.1%
18.7 12.4%
19
14
11
11
.269
.270
.275
.270
.254
.289
.253
.260
.310
.296
.303
.285
4.33
2.57
1.96
3.35
45
97
117
65
Jose Altuve | HOU | Age: 24 | Rk: 7 (68)
Chase Utley | PHI | Age: 35 | Rk: 10 (103)
Position: 2B
Position: 2B
For the stats Altuve can control (BA, HR, SB) we know what
he will bring to the table. The 3rd-year vet will hit .285ish
with not enough HR to matter, and 30+ SB. The one real wildcard is his runs scored as the below average Astros offense can
really suppress the speedster’s impact there. In 2013, Altuve
had 42 more PA yet scored 16 fewer R thanks to his OBP falling from .340 to .316. If Altuve can increase his on-base skills
and score more R maybe he keeps climbing up the 2B ranks.
Players with similar stat lines: Brett Gardner; Elvis Andrus;
Jean Segura
In 2013, Utley managed to place in the top 10 in each of the 5x5
categories despite just 531 PA. Even better was his average flyball
distance (287.6 feet), which seemed to return to his pre-knee injury days. Unfortunately for him, the Phillies offense has not returned to those glory days and Utley finds himself in the middle
of a hodge-podge of offensive “talent.” At 35, he’s not getting any
younger, but while he’ll never return to his elite days, he’s still a viable
2B option who is probably passed on too many times on draft day.
Players with similar stat lines: Avisail Garcia; Michael Cuddyer;
Chase Headley
2011
2012
2013
2014
57
147
152
154
234
630
672
688
26
80
64
85
2
7
5
8
12
37
52
55
7
33
35
36
.276
.290
.283
.280
.264
.304
.290
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
103
83
131
133
454
362
531
534
54
48
73
72
2011
2012
2013
2014
12.4
11.7
12.6
12.4
2.1
6.3
4.8
6.7
1.69
1.94
1.74
1.19
20.4
20.2
22.6
16.4
3.6%
5.1%
3.2%
3.9%
.309
.321
.316
.310
-4.72
2.06
2.51
3.26
630
112
92
68
2011
2012
2013
2014
10.4
11.9
14.9
14.6
8.6
11.9
8.5
9.9
0.89
1.17
0.89
0.81
11
11
18
17
44
45
69
80
12.7 6.7%
21.4 11.6%
19.5 10.6%
18.3 10.2%
14
11
8
11
.259
.256
.284
.280
.203
.294
.259
.250
.269
.261
.305
.294
-1.14
-1.98
2.25
2.06
262
339
102
103
Matt Carpenter | STL | Age: 28 | Rk: 8 (69)
Brandon Phillips | CIN | Age: 33 | Rk: 11 (107)
Position: 2B/3B
Position: 2B
Carpenter wasn’t a known commodity to begin the 2013 season,
but that quickly changed as he rode a .318 BA and 126 R to a #2
ranking among all second basemen. If you were good at reading
between the lines you would realize his major flaw from that
statement. How did he only rank 2nd? Because he only contributed 11 HR and 3 SB. Carpenter is a doubles-hitting machine, but if he’s not scoring 100+ R with a .300+ BA it’s likely he’ll fall far short of this ranking. You’ve been warned.
Players with similar stat lines: Nick Markakis; Aaron Hill;
Yadier Molina
At 33, Phillips posted his first 100 RBI season thanks to 2 things.
First, Shin-Soo Choo and his .423 OBP sat at the top of that lineup for a full season. Second, Phillips managed a .338 BA with
RISP vs. a .233 BA in all other situations. While we’d like to believe that Phillips is a “clutch” hitter, that’s just not something we’d
expect him to replicate for 2014. Phillips also saw his stolen bases drop considerably, which is understandable as few other hitters have amassed the playing time he has over the last decade.
Players with similar stat lines: Manny Machado; Xander Bogaerts;
Chase Utley
2011
2012
2013
2014
7
114
157
156
19
340
717
701
0
44
126
98
0
6
11
12
0
46
78
67
0
1
3
5
.067
.294
.318
.300
.067
.253
.324
.300
2011
2012
2013
2014
150
147
151
148
675
623
666
643
94
86
80
81
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.1
18.5
13.7
14.1
21.1
10.0
10.0
10.6
0.83
1.12
1.14
1.11
0.0
23.8
27.3
22.3
0.0%
7.0%
6.1%
6.4%
.091
.346
.359
.333
-2.69
5.72
3.25
397
23
69
2011
2012
2013
2014
12.6
12.7
14.7
14.0
6.5
4.5
5.9
6.4
1.30
1.46
1.34
1.68
18
18
18
16
82
77
103
83
19.8 9.7%
20.6 11.0%
19.2 10.1%
21.0 11.2%
14
15
5
6
.300
.281
.261
.270
.286
.292
.265
.280
.322
.298
.281
.295
4.57
2.93
2.80
1.93
39
85
86
107
Ian Kinsler | DET | Age: 32 | Rk: 9 (78)
Martin Prado | ARI | Age: 30 | Rk: 12 (117)
Position: 2B
Position: 2B/3B/OF
Kinsler’s move from Texas to Detroit will not be a beneficial one.
Add in the fact that he’s already on the decline and the results may
not be pretty. In addition to the worse ballpark, Kinsler’s SB totals and walk rates have slipped recently. He’s clearly a 2nd tier 2B,
and probably even in the 2nd tier or 2nd tier players. He’ll still
be leading off for the Tigers and while his abilities are on the decline, if he can get on base 34% of the time he should surpass 90 R.
Prado might be one of the more consistent players in baseball over the last 4 years. Despite a couple of blips on the radar you can count on a .280-.290 BA, 10-15 HR, 140+ R+RBI, and fewer than 5 SB. He’s a high-contact hitter who likes
to keep the ball near the ground (liners and grounders), which
helps keep his batting average up. Yes, this is boring analysis for a boring player, but he’s solid across the board and eligible at mulitiple positions, which makes him fairly valuable.
Players with similar stat lines: Dexter Fowler; Shane Victorino;
Desmond Jennings
2011
2012
2013
2014
155
157
136
143
723
731
614
667
121
105
85
94
32
19
13
14
77
72
72
68
30
21
15
22
.255
.256
.277
.270
.278
.253
.282
.270
2011 9.8
2012 12.3
2013 9.6
2014 10.8
12.3
8.2
8.3
8.7
0.75
0.89
0.94
0.87
17.6
20.1
23.7
20.8
12.5%
7.9%
6.7%
6.5%
.243
.270
.288
.282
6.26
3.15
2.88
2.87
21
78
80
78
Players with similar stat lines: Jason Castro; Pablo Sandoval;
Yadier Molina
2011
2012
2013
2014
129
156
155
152
590
690
664
629
66
81
70
72
13
10
14
14
57
70
82
77
4
17
3
4
.260
.301
.282
.290
.251
.306
.298
.290
2011 8.8
2012 10.0
2013 8.0
2014 9.2
5.8
8.4
7.1
7.6
1.47
1.65
1.58
1.21
14.6
22.8
21.9
24.1
7.5%
6.2%
8.2%
8.1%
.266
.322
.288
.300
-0.84
2.81
1.80
1.71
245
88
127
117
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Brian Dozier | MIN | Age: 27 | Rk: 13 (126)
Brad Miller | SEA | Age: 24 | Rk: 16 (176)
Position: 2B
Position: 2B/SS
Dozier should be on everyone’s sleeper list after his breakout 2013 campaign. However, FantasyPros “experts” have
him ranked 20th-best on average, which seems extremely low. From June on, Dozier slashed .255/.331/.458 with
16 HR and 8 SB. Dozier’s HR outburst wasn’t fueled by a ridiculous HR/FB rate (9.9%), but instead by a lot of flyballs hit (41.3 FB%). With a bit more batted ball luck, there’s
no reason to believe that Dozier can’t turn in a .270 BA.
Players with similar stat lines: Christian Yelich; Shane Victorino;
Dexter Fowler
2011
2012
2013
2014
84
147
147
340
623
664
33
72
80
2011
2012 17.1
2013 19.3
2014 16.6
4.7
8.2
8.3
1.09
0.92
1.29
6
18
16
33
66
62
20.6 6.3%
20.8 9.9%
23.5 10.0%
Miller has a lot of bad organizational history to overcome, but I
actually think he’s going to do it. With great plate discipline and
enough power/speed, all that’s left to do is see whether he can finally reach that .270, 15 HR, 15 SB level that we’ve been waiting for
Dustin Ackley to reach (Kyle Seager’s there). There aren’t many
shorstops, especially at this point in the rankings, who can contribute positively across all 5 fantasy categories like Miller can.
Players with similar stat lines: Jurickson Profar; Austin Jackson;
Manny Machado
9
14
16
.234
.244
.270
.253
.261
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
76
152
335
646
41
77
8
13
36
57
5
12
.265
.270
.261
.280
.267
.278
.301
-4.28
1.09
1.59
551
156
126
2011
2012
2013 15.5
2014 16.3
7.2
9.0
1.42
1.03
21.6
21.6
9.9%
7.6%
.294
.307
-2.70
0.71
394
176
Brett Lawrie | TOR | Age: 24 | Rk: 14 (138)
Jedd Gyorko | SD | Age: 25 | Rk: 17 (182)
Position: 2B/3B
Position: 2B/3B
Despite being just 24 years old, Lawrie has been marked
with “Bust” as he’s failed to live up to the tremendous hype
he generated after his successful cup of coffee in 2011. Lawrie has a very good contact rate along with league average
power, however he hasn’t harnessed those skills into a true
breakout campaign just yet. Still, at 24 Lawrie has time to
develop into a future All-Star as not all players get it right
off the bat. Let’s give the youngster some time to develop.
Gyorko not only managed to hit 23 HR last year, but he did
so while both playing in San Diego and missing 1 1/2 months
with a groin injury. Add in the fact that 15 of his 23 HR came
after the injury and we’re looking at some impressive power,
especially from someone who boasts 2B eligibility. He needs to
work on his plate discipline as his 0.27 BB/K leaves a lot to be
desired, but his rookie season definitely could have gone worse.
Players with similar stat lines: Avisail Garcia; Asdrubal Cabrera;
Chase Utley
2011
2012
2013
2014
43
125
107
138
171
536
442
556
26
73
41
67
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.1
16.0
15.4
14.9
9.4
6.2
6.8
7.7
0.85
1.69
1.42
3.18
9
11
11
16
25
48
46
75
16.9 17.0%
20.0 9.0%
17.4 9.6%
19.4 21.1%
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Wieters; Jason Kubel;
J.J. Hardy
7
13
9
14
.293
.273
.254
.270
.264
.279
.261
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
125
146
525
604
62
70
.318
.311
.280
.291
-3.38
-0.06
-1.88
1.38
465
210
333
138
2011
2012
2013 23.4
2014 20.2
6.3
8.3
0.94
1.31
23
25
63
76
22.5 15.9%
21.3 18.4%
1
1
.249
.260
.280
.260
.287
.279
0.09
0.57
203
182
Jurickson Profar | TEX | Age: 21 | Rk: 15 (165)
Nick Franklin | SEA | Age: 23 | Rk: 18 (188)
Position: 2B/3B/SS
Position: 2B
So Profar was just a tad outdone by Mike Trout in their age21 seasons. Does that make Profar a bust? His 2013 season was disappointing, but we’re talking about a player
who has performed well at every level despite being young
for the group. It may be another year or 2 before we truly see Profar blossom into a star because he is still so young,
but he can definitely bring value just because of his power/
speed combo along with his coveted position eligibility.
Players with similar stat lines: Alejandro De Aza; Josh Rutledge;
Brad Miller
2011
2012
2013
2014
9
85
147
17
324
556
2
30
74
2011
2012 23.5
2013 19.4
2014 18.0
0.0
8.0
9.4
1.40
1.18
1.63
1
6
13
2
26
53
7.7 20.0%
23.4 7.7%
21.4 11.4%
Robinson Cano‘s signing relegates Franklin to AAA, but odds are
good that the Mariners will shop him since they really have nowhere to put the upcoming infielder. Franklin struggled with strikeouts (27.4%) and really fell off in the 2nd half (.190/.280/.333), so
there are certainly plenty of question marks surrounding his 2014
season. Our projection hinges on our expectation that Seattle trades
him with Cano signed at second base, Kyle Seager entrenched
at third base, and Miller (hopefully) succeeding at shortstop.
Players with similar stat lines: Corey Dickerson; Asdrubal Cabrera;
Junior Lake
0
2
17
.176
.234
.280
.214
.261
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
102
138
412
534
38
53
.167
.280
.315
-7.61
-4.82
0.94
1176
629
165
2011
2012
2013 27.4
2014 22.5
10.2
10.7
0.84
1.24
12
16
45
66
24.3 11.4%
21.0 13.3%
6
13
.225
.280
.239
.280
.290
.326
-3.05
0.39
430
188
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Omar Infante | KC | Age: 32 | Rk: 19 (192)
Neil Walker | PIT | Age: 28 | Rk: 22 (202)
Position: 2B
Position: 2B
Back-to-back double-digit HR seasons? Let’s make it 3!
He’s also slated to bat 2nd for the Royals, which is a pretty nice situation for a high-contact player with the ability to hit .300 (and potentially score 90 R). Yes, I’m aware
that we projected Infante for just 75 and he’s never scored
more than 69, but why can’t Infante really surprise?
Walker has a couple of skills that make him valuable in
deeper leagues but not worth your while in a standard format. In his 4 pro seasons, Walker has eclipsed 12 HR in
each, which isn’t quite Dan Uggla level, but it’s also nothing
to sneeze at either. In addition, his career .340 OBP is better than the league average. He’s not an exciting player to
own as he possesses very limited upside in all 5 categories,
but in the right format he can bring value to your squad.
Players with similar stat lines: Derek Jeter; Daniel Nava;
Melky Cabrera
2011
2012
2013
2014
Players with similar stat lines: Cody Asche; Carlos Quentin;
Jhonny Peralta
148
149
118
142
640
588
476
625
55
69
54
75
7
12
10
10
49
53
51
57
4
17
5
5
.276
.274
.318
.290
.288
.282
.294
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
159
129
133
139
662
530
551
590
76
62
62
65
2011 10.5
2012 11.1
2013 9.2
2014 9.6
5.3
3.6
4.2
4.2
1.19
1.04
1.01
1.55
21.8
20.1
23.6
19.2
3.8%
6.3%
6.5%
6.0%
.298
.291
.333
.303
-1.51
0.50
0.49
0.30
288
183
180
192
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.9
19.6
15.4
14.4
8.2
8.9
9.1
8.5
1.26
1.26
1.00
1.14
12
14
16
17
83
69
53
72
21.2 7.0%
24.0 11.2%
23.0 10.6%
22.8 11.1%
9
7
1
5
.273
.280
.251
.260
.258
.276
.276
.270
.315
.326
.274
.282
1.53
0.25
-1.06
0.12
123
195
270
202
Josh Rutledge | COL | Age: 25 | Rk: 20 (193)
Howie Kendrick | LAA | Age: 30 | Rk: 23 (205)
Position: 2B/SS
Position: 2B
Rutledge is stuck in the black hole of MLB lineup slots: batting 8th for an NL team (in front of the pitcher). Generally that
means he’ll be pitched around, and it’ll severely limit his R and
RBI numbers. Despite playing in Coors, Rutledge doesn’t have
a ton of power potential, but he does have enough speed to top
15 steals. With some luck he could combine for 30 HR+SB, and
he has the ability to bat at least .270. There’s a lot of “ifs” and
a lot of potential with Rutledge, who has just 605 career PA.
Players with similar stat lines: Kolten Wong; Jurickson Profar;
Alejandro De Aza
2011
2012
2013
2014
73
88
141
291
314
467
37
45
68
2011
2012 18.6
2013 19.7
2014 18.2
3.1
7.0
6.6
1.59
1.51
1.12
8
7
11
37
19
48
20.1 11.6%
18.5 9.7%
20.6 8.7%
I find Kendrick to be very frustrating, and I don’t target him
in my fantasy leagues. He always seems to slump badly, and
he’s had some difficulty staying healthy in his career. Kendrick has become a low-teens HR player who did have 3 straight
14 SB seasons before falling to just 6 last year. He has enough
potential and annual fluctuation to end up with a .285 BA,
85 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, and 15 SB should things go very well.
Players with similar stat lines: Robbie Grossman; Junior Lake;
Chris Owings
7
12
18
.274
.235
.280
.283
.266
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
140
147
122
133
583
594
513
550
86
57
55
60
.315
.276
.319
-3.07
-3.27
0.27
425
452
193
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.4
19.4
17.3
18.2
5.7
4.9
4.5
5.3
1.94
2.81
2.41
2.85
18
8
13
10
63
67
54
60
21.9 16.5%
20.6 8.9%
27.4 15.7%
15.6 11.4%
14
14
6
13
.285
.287
.297
.280
.312
.272
.341
.310
.338
.347
.340
.330
2.66
0.37
0.48
0.09
78
190
181
205
Alexander Guerrero | LAD | Age: 27 | Rk: 21 (200)
Kolten Wong | STL | Age: 23 | Rk: 24 (206)
Position: 2B
Position: 2B
Better known as “the other Cuban,” Guerrero was reportedly spotted this winter signing in Jose Abreu’s shadow. While his
slash line in Cuba wasn’t as stellar as Abreu’s it was still pretty
good -- .310/.400/.499. Just don’t get too carried away. There’s
a lot of risk if you’re drafting him based on his Cuban numbers and while he does have some nice upside, the scouts claim
he has iffy plate discipline and is a strictly pull hitter. It’s likely he will get exposed in his 1st year so draft at your own risk.
The Cardinals like Wong enough to ship Freese out of of town,
but it remains to be seen how valuable a full season of Wong
would be. He posted strong numbers in the minor leagues
before an unsuccessful call-up last August/September (and
a memorable World Series baserunning gaffe). He doesn’t
really boast a lot in terms of power and his counting stats
will suffer as he is likely to live near the bottom of the Cardinals lineup, but he can provide a solid average and 20+ SB.
Players with similar stat lines: Andre Ethier; Yan Gomes;
Nolan Arenado
2011
2012
2013
2014
127
539
67
2011
2012
2013
2014 15.2
9.6
1.46
18
62
21.6 14.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Josh Rutledge; Carl Crawford;
Angel Pagan
2
.280
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
122
62
491
6
66
0
8
0
48
3
18
.153
.280
.242
.290
.295
0.15
200
2011
2012
2013 19.4
2014 14.1
4.8
6.5
2.80
1.06
17.4
20.5
0.0%
5.4%
.191
.316
0.09
206
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Jed Lowrie | OAK | Age: 30 | Rk: 25 (212)
Kelly Johnson | NYY | Age: 32 | Rk: 28 (270)
Position: 2B/SS
Position: 2B/3B/OF
Lowrie has a lengthy injury history yet somehow stayed
on the field for 154 games last year. I’m not saying that was
completely fluky and that Lowrie can’t put up another 150
game season, but I am saying that I certainly won’t be gambling on Lowrie doing it again. I’ll let someone else take that
risk as he’ll likely go a lot earlier than this rankings suggests
he should. If you do take a chance on him as your starting
shortstop, then make sure you have a viable backup plan.
Johnson is a low-average player who now has the starting 3B job
in light of Alex Rodriguez’s year-long ban. He’s hit no fewer than
16 HR in any of the past 4 years, which is encouraging if you play
him at a power-starved 2B position, but Johnson’s also hit higher
than .235 just once in the last five years (.284 in 2010). The extra
playing time will be nice and Johnson provides some pop for a
middle infielder, but don’t expect him to contribute much else.
Players with similar stat lines: Daniel Nava; Anthony Rendon;
David Freese
2011
2012
2013
2014
88
97
154
138
341
387
662
525
40
43
80
68
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.6
16.8
13.7
16.4
6.7
11.1
7.6
8.4
0.67
0.57
0.77
0.68
6
16
15
12
36
42
75
66
17.6 4.8%
19.3 11.3%
23.4 6.8%
21.3 6.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Joyce; Marcell Ozuna;
Josh Reddick
1
2
1
1
.252
.244
.290
.280
.220
.257
.268
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
147
142
118
138
613
581
407
501
75
61
41
68
.289
.257
.319
.319
-3.82
-3.01
2.25
-0.01
518
422
103
212
2011
2012
2013
2014
26.6
27.4
24.3
24.4
9.8
10.7
8.6
9.2
0.97
1.34
0.84
1.67
21
16
16
19
58
55
52
58
20.4 13.8%
21.0 13.7%
15.2 12.9%
5.9 17.4%
16
14
7
8
.222
.225
.235
.240
.248
.232
.204
.230
.277
.292
.276
.282
-0.16
-1.55
-1.80
-1.10
211
303
322
270
Anthony Rendon | WAS | Age: 24 | Rk: 26 (216)
Jordy Mercer | PIT | Age: 27 | Rk: 29 (285)
Position: 2B/3B
Position: 2B/SS
While I love his walk rate, he doesn’t seem to have a ton of
category juice (HR and SB) at this point in his career. Danny Espinosa, on the other hand, does, and it wasn’t long
ago that Espinosa had positive value. No, I don’t think Rendon will lose the Nationals’ 2B job to Espinosa, but he could
lose enough playing time to see it severely impact his already depressed fantasy value. Long-term I’m definitely
more bullish, but in the short term I have my reservations.
Mercer took over Pittsburgh’s starting SS job late last season,
but he’ll still have 2B eligibility in almost all formats after
starting 20 games there in 2013. At 6’3, 205 lbs, Mercer has a
pretty large frame that could fill out over the next few years, so
a 15-20 HR season isn’t entirely out of the question. If he can
drop his strikeout rate to 14-15%, he’ll look much more attractive, but I fully endorse Mercer as a “Name to Know” for 2014.
Players with similar stat lines: Yan Gomes; Jed Lowrie;
Daniel Nava
2011
2012
2013
2014
98
145
394
525
40
63
2011
2012
2013 17.5
2014 16.6
7.9
9.5
1.20
1.20
7
15
35
60
25.5 7.2%
25.5 12.3%
Players with similar stat lines: Derek Jeter; Marco Scutaro;
Daniel Nava
1
2
.265
.280
.278
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
42
103
137
68
365
576
7
33
68
1
8
10
5
27
37
0
3
2
.210
.285
.280
.231
.300
.290
.307
.314
-3.28
-0.11
453
216
2011
2012 20.6
2013 17.0
2014 15.6
5.9
6.0
7.1
1.53
1.54
0.99
22.4
22.8
23.1
6.7%
9.9%
6.2%
.250
.330
.321
-7.42
-3.12
-1.45
1140
435
285
Dustin Ackley | SEA | Age: 26 | Rk: 27 (252)
Rafael Furcal | MIA | Age: 36 | Rk: 30 (287)
Position: 2B/OF
Position: 2B/SS
Ackley is currently projected to bat leadoff for the Mariners
and that’s really his only saving grace. Should things break
right for him in 2014, he has the potential to bat .270 with
double-digit HR and SB, and that could mean 80 R, but the
further he drops in the order, the harder it will be for him to
rack up enough relevant couting stats. It’s time to stop waiting for this former top prospect to finally put it together.
Analyzing Furcal is easy because you don’t even have to
get into his declining production at the plate. He can’t stay
healthy! Let’s ignore the fact that he missed all of 2013 after Tommy John surgery, but he also missed 41 games in
2012, 75 games in 2011, and 65 games in 2010. Even if he
were Mike Trout you wouldn’t be drafting him with that
spotty of an injury history. And let me tell you something, Furcal ain’t nothing like Trout. Ain’t never was.
Players with similar stat lines: Gerardo Parra; Jackie Bradley;
Brad Miller
2011
2012
2013
2014
90
153
113
121
376
668
427
520
39
84
40
78
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.0
18.6
16.9
14.8
10.6
8.8
8.7
9.4
1.05
1.29
1.89
2.17
6
12
4
10
36
50
31
44
22.3 6.2%
19.4 7.1%
21.9 4.8%
20.4 10.6%
Players with similar stat lines: Alex Presley; A.J. Pollock;
Jackie Bradley
6
13
2
10
.273
.226
.253
.270
.249
.244
.264
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
87
121
126
369
531
520
44
69
70
.339
.265
.301
.300
-2.90
-1.40
-4.01
-0.57
414
292
520
252
2011 10.6
2012 10.7
2013
2014 13.5
7.6
8.3
9.2
1.95
1.99
1.11
8
5
6
28
49
38
18.2 10.1%
18.8 4.4%
21.1 4.1%
9
12
14
.231
.264
.270
.277
.258
.270
.240
.289
.299
-3.61
-1.19
-1.49
493
278
287
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Marco Scutaro | SF | Age: 38 | Rk: 31 (306)
Alberto Callaspo | OAK | Age: 31 | Rk: 34 (337)
Position: 2B
Position: 2B/3B
If you’re seriously considering drafting Scutaro then you
must be in a league that really emphasizes batting average and
hits or you’re in an all-Marco Scutaro league. He’s turned in
a .297+ BA in each of the last 3 seasons, but he’s coming off
a year in which he combined for 4 HR+SB. At 38, there’s absolutely no upside here and while we project him for a slight
rebound in 2014, we’re not talking anything significant.
Callaspo has Oakland’s starting 2B job for now, but he’s
a liability on defense and could likely see his role diminished to more of a utility role. His numbers have actually been amazingly stable over the last four years. That’s not
to say that he’s been anything great -- he’s been consistently below average at the plate. We projected him for another season of the same, which means you should stay away.
Players with similar stat lines: Jordy Mercer; DJ LeMahieu;
Scooter Gennett
Players with similar stat lines: Juan Uribe; Gordon Beckham;
David Murphy
2011
2012
2013
2014
113
156
127
135
445
683
547
589
59
87
57
65
7
7
2
4
54
74
31
34
4
9
2
2
.299
.306
.297
.290
.271
.304
.273
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
141
138
136
133
536
520
516
509
54
55
52
53
6
10
10
10
46
53
58
53
8
4
0
2
.288
.252
.258
.260
.279
.271
.298
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
8.1
7.2
6.2
7.1
8.5
5.9
8.2
8.5
1.34
1.26
1.64
0.74
19.1
25.8
21.2
25
5.6%
3.7%
1.5%
3.0%
.312
.319
.314
.307
-0.58
2.40
-1.87
-2.01
230
104
330
306
2011 9.0
2012 11.3
2013 9.1
2014 9.0
10.8
10.8
10.3
10.6
1.12
1.22
1.12
1.66
22.4
20.7
24.6
21.9
3.8%
7.0%
6.8%
8.6%
.310
.268
.266
.271
-1.04
-2.35
-1.80
-2.58
254
368
323
337
Gordon Beckham | CHW | Age: 27 | Rk: 32 (309)
Scooter Gennett | MIL | Age: 24 | Rk: 35 (339)
Position: 2B
Position: 2B
Beckham made solid progress from 2011 to 2012, upping his
HR total to 16 in 151 games. Last year he undid all of that, dropping to just 5 HR in 103 games. On the plus side, Beckham’s
K% has dropped over the last three years from 19.9% in 2011
to 13.7% last year. Along with a career-best 23.2 LD%, it’s not
shocking that Beckham escaped the .230s to post a career-best
.267 BA. We think he gets some of the power back and maintains
the batting average, but Beckham isn’t really someone to target.
Gennett is currently the favorite to win Milwaukee’s starting 2B job, but he’s a much less valuable fantasy player than Weeks because he doesn’t have the same offensive
upside. Gennett did bat .324 last year on the back of a .380
BABIP and a 24.4 LD%, but he’s much more of a .280 hitter who could derive some value from his legs. Then again,
he’s never topped 14 SB in a single professional season.
Players with similar stat lines: Juan Uribe; Alberto Callaspo;
Gaby Sanchez
Players with similar stat lines: DJ LeMahieu; John Jaso;
Ryan Goins
2011
2012
2013
2014
150
151
103
138
557
582
408
514
60
62
46
58
10
16
5
10
44
60
24
59
5
5
5
2
.230
.234
.267
.260
.217
.242
.258
.240
2011
2012
2013
2014
69
118
230
478
29
52
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.9
15.3
13.7
10.9
6.3
6.9
6.9
5.4
0.98
0.90
0.86
1.05
20.3
19.5
23.2
23.7
6.4%
8.7%
3.8%
6.5%
.276
.254
.299
.278
-2.95
-1.82
-3.21
-2.04
422
328
443
309
2011
2012
2013 18.3
2014 16.1
4.3
4.4
1.07
1.03
6
6
21
30
24.4 10.0%
18.9 4.0%
2
7
.324
.290
.279
.290
.380
.332
-3.46
-2.60
471
339
Grant Green | LAA | Age: 26 | Rk: 33 (311)
Jemile Weeks | BAL | Age: 27 | Rk: 36 (347)
Position: 2B
Position: 2B
Green has just 45 games of major league experience and
will serve as the utility infielder for the Angels this season. LA’s acquisition of David Freese definitely hurt
Green’s value this coming season, but Freese is an injury
risk and we did hear some offseason grumblings that the
team may be open to trading Kendrick. Should either of
those happen, Green has the potential to step in and hit
for a .260-.280 average and 15-20 HR over a full season.
Back-to-back Weeks in our rankings, and we 100% promise this
was not done on purpose. Both brothers are equally invaluable!
No, I definitely meant worthless. (I’ll never understand why adding “in-” to “consistent” to form “inconsistent” takes the word from
positive to negative yet adding “in-” to “valuable” to form “invaluable” takes the word from positive to even more positive.) Weeks
came to the O’s in exchange for closer Jim Johnson and has enough
upside late, but there’s a slim chance we get much value here.
Players with similar stat lines: David Murphy; Alberto Callaspo;
Henry Urrutia
2011
2012
2013
2014
45
106
153
405
16
56
2011
2012
2013 28.8
2014 21.0
6.5
6.9
1.18
2.34
1
12
17
46
21.3 2.9%
16.8 17.3%
Players with similar stat lines: A.J. Pollock; Ichiro Suzuki;
Alex Presley
0
2
.250
.270
.237
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
97
118
8
122
437
511
9
467
50
54
3
55
2
2
0
3
36
20
0
37
22
16
0
17
.303
.221
.111
.260
.265
.232
.144
.260
.351
.319
-6.05
-2.08
810
311
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.2
13.7
55.6
12.8
4.8
9.8
0.0
9.0
1.08
1.56
2.00
1.29
23.3
18.8
25.0
15.8
1.6%
1.7%
0.0%
2.3%
.350
.256
.250
.288
-0.43
-4.37
-2.90
223
562
347
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Rickie Weeks | MIL | Age: 31 | Rk: 37 (355)
Brian Roberts | NYY | Age: 36 | Rk: 40 (381)
Position: 2B
Position: 2B
While Scooter Gennett is the favorite to win the starting 2B gig in Milwaukee, Weeks definitely has the higher fantasy upside if he were to get the job. He still has
20 HR power if given enough playing time but that will
come with the usual low batting average and plenty of
strikeouts. Even if he loses the job to Gennett, Weeks
should steal some time back throughout the season
Roberts is New York’s starting 2B -- until he gets hurt, that is. He
has some batting average upside, but he’ll provide little-to-nothing in terms of HR and SB, and even if he does start to contribute
in those categories for a short while, you know he’s going down at
some point. If you have to gamble on Roberts or Kelly Johnson,
who has 2B eligibility but will start at 3B for New York, go Johnson, but I really hope this isn’t a position you find yourself in.
Players with similar stat lines: Russell Martin; Dan Uggla;
Trevor Plouffe
2011
2012
2013
2014
118
157
104
125
515
677
399
507
77
85
40
50
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.8
25.0
26.3
25.4
9.7
10.9
10.0
8.7
1.37
1.19
1.51
2.01
20
21
10
18
49
63
24
50
16.6 16.3%
16.9 13.1%
18.0 12.5%
20.2 22.2%
Players with similar stat lines: Nolan Reimold; A.J. Ellis;
Lorenzo Cain
9
16
7
9
.269
.230
.209
.230
.260
.237
.231
.240
2011
2012
2013
2014
39
17
77
98
178
74
296
367
18
2
33
40
.310
.285
.268
.266
0.82
0.50
-4.35
-2.97
151
184
562
355
2011
2012
2013
2014
11.8
16.2
14.9
15.0
6.7
6.8
8.8
9.5
0.59
1.14
0.92
2.15
3
0
8
10
19
5
39
48
22.5 4.3%
16.1 0.0%
24.2 9.1%
20.7 14.7%
6
1
3
2
.221
.182
.249
.270
.245
.172
.281
.270
.236
.214
.267
.287
-5.53
-3.47
-3.37
754
474
381
Dan Uggla | ATL | Age: 34 | Rk: 38 (374)
Position: 2B
From 9th to 22nd to 36th and now 40th, the downward trend
continues for the Atlanta 2B. The Braves have World Series aspiriations and last year Uggla was worth just 0.4 WAR,
meaning you or I could have filled in and done just as “well.”
Tommy La Stella is ready to seize a starting job should Uggla again provide little or no tangible value, but even if Uggla stays in the lineup and gets 500+ PA, his 30%+ strikeout
rate will mean fewer fly balls, which will mean fewer HR.
Players with similar stat lines: Trevor Plouffe; Casey McGehee;
Mark Reynolds
2011
2012
2013
2014
161
154
136
136
672
630
537
563
88
86
60
52
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.2
26.7
31.8
30.4
9.2
14.9
14.3
13.7
0.95
0.72
0.84
1.43
36
19
22
17
82
78
55
62
15.4 18.6%
20.1 11.4%
13.2 16.7%
18.0 17.4%
1
4
2
2
.233
.220
.179
.230
.255
.208
.185
.220
.253
.283
.225
.290
1.90
-0.51
-2.94
-3.29
109
232
418
374
Mike Aviles | CLE | Age: 33 | Rk: 39 (377)
Position: 2B/3B/SS
A bench player for the Indians, Aviles has actually seen a power boost in recent seasons with 22 HR in the last 2 years combined. He hits for a low average and doesn’t walk, driving his
value even lower in OBP leagues, and he has no true path to playing time unless the Indians decide to trade Asdrubal Cabrera.
That’s unlikely as the team is coming off a season in which they
made the playoffs, but then again Aviles would be a serviceable
stopgap between Cabrera and top prospect Francisco Lindor.
Players with similar stat lines: Jesus Guzman; Alex Avila;
Brandon Crawford
2011
2012
2013
2014
91
136
124
127
309
546
394
404
31
57
54
50
7
13
9
11
39
60
46
47
14
14
8
2
.255
.250
.252
.250
.236
.250
.247
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.2
14.1
10.4
14.1
4.2
4.2
3.8
4.7
0.98
1.04
1.17
1.37
15.7
19.3
19.8
15.7
6.8%
7.5%
7.4%
9.8%
.276
.269
.257
.267
-2.73
-0.83
-1.63
-3.34
395
254
302
377
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2013: Third Base Year in Review
We rated some of last year’s best Third Basemen on both consistency and statistical balance based on their 2013 performance (small sample size
Better
in H2H
More
consistency
Great
Player
Jedd Gyorko
Edwin Encarnacion
Adrian Beltre
Kyle Seager
Martin Prado
Pablo Sandoval
Miguel Cabrera
Evan Longoria
Ryan Zimmerman
Josh Donaldson
Less
balance
Matt Carpenter
Pedro Alvarez
Todd Frazier
More
balance
Chris Johnson
Manny Machado
Bad
Player
Less
consistency
Better
in Roto
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30.0%
25.0%
HR/FB
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
240
250
260
270
280
290
Average FB Distance
300
310
320
Facebook
.360
Unlucky
.340
.320
.300
.280
.260
.240
.220
Lucky
.200
.200
.220
.240
.260
.280
.300
.320
.340
.360
Batting Average
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Third Base 2014 Preview
Rk
Prospect
Team
1 Kris Bryant
CHC
2 Miguel Sano
MIN
Age
ETA
Comments
22
I know, I know, why isn’t Miguel Sano first? Nothing against Sano I just think Bryant is
going to be special. The AFL MVP showed monster power and a very advanced approach
Late 2014
at the plate this past season. He could be in Wrigley by the end of the year and could be
an MVP candidate down the road if things break right for him.
21
Sano has the most impressive power in the minors and would likely be higher than 80
grade power if there was such a thing. Despite his Jurassic power stroke Sano has a lot of
Late 2014
swing and miss to his game and is prone to hot and cold streaks. This streakiness and lack
of plate discipline gives Bryant the nod as the more sure thing.
3 Corey Seager
LAD
20
4 Nick Castellanos
DET
22
5 D.J. Peterson
SEA
22
Though this ranking may surprise people I fully stand by it. Seager is not sticking at
shortstop due to his size so I didn’t even bother to list him there. He is bigger, stronger,
2015
and more advanced at a young age than his brother Kyle and could approach 25+HR in his
prime.
Castellanos could very well end up as a .300 hitter in the majors and has enough power to
Early 2014 hit 20+ HR in his prime. He lacks the ceiling of some of the other guys on this list but is
more of a sure thing than most prospects.
It is safe to say I like Peterson a lot more than most people and the reason is his bat. In
fantasy the bat trumps all and Peterson should hit for big power and a respectable
2016
average. His stock will drop if his is forced to first base, but that isn’t imminent especially
since the Mariners team is made up of half first basemen.
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Player Name
Miguel Cabrera
Adrian Beltre
Edwin Encarnacion
David Wright
Evan Longoria
Ryan Zimmerman
Josh Donaldson
Matt Carpenter
Kyle Seager
Chase Headley
Pedro Alvarez
Pablo Sandoval
Aramis Ramirez
Martin Prado
Brett Lawrie
$ Value
$42
$29
$25
$25
$23
$16
$15
$12
$11
$10
$10
$9
$9
$8
$7
Rank
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Player Name
Xander Bogaerts
Nolan Arenado
Will Middlebrooks
Jurickson Profar
Manny Machado
Jedd Gyorko
Cody Asche
Anthony Rendon
David Freese
Todd Frazier
Chris Johnson
Matt Davidson
Kelly Johnson
Matt Dominguez
Lonnie Chisenhall
$ Value
$6
$4
$4
$3
$3
$2
$1
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
A Closer Look...Third Base Superlatives
Superlative
Biggest Risk
Safest Bet
Mid-Round Sleeper
Late-Round Sleeper
Post-Hype Sleeper
Best Value Pick
Round I'll Draft 3B
Matt Commins
Evan Longoria
Adrian Beltre
Kyle Seager
Will Middlebrooks
Manny Machado
Brett Lawrie
Kyle Seager
Kyle Seager
Evan Longoria
10th
Martin Prado
Kyle Seager
Will Middlebrooks
Nick Castellanos
Eric Broutman
Evan Longoria
David Wright
Martin Prado
Nolan Arenado
Matt Carpenter
Mike Moustakas
Ryan Zimmerman
Pedro Alvarez
Chase Headley
2nd-4rd
Kyle Seager
Pedro Alvarez
Manny Machado
Mike Olt
Paul Beck
Pablo Sandoval
Adrian Beltre
David Freese
Matt Davidson
Manny Machado
Todd Frazier
David Wright
Brett Lawrie
Martin Prado
1st-4th
Martin Prado
Pedro Alvarez
David Wright
Nick Castallenos
Adam Nodiff
Evan Longoria
Miguel Cabrera
Kyle Seager
Pablo Sandoval
Matt Carpenter
Brett Lawrie
Ryan Zimmerman
Pablo Sandoval
Aramis Ramirez
2nd-3rd
Pedro Alvarez
David Wright
Adrian Beltre
Manny Machado
Jake Devereaux
Manny Machado
Adrian Beltre
Brett Lawrie
Nolan Arenado
Pablo Sandoval
Todd Frazier
Kyle Seager
Ryan Zimmerman
Pablo Sandoval
2nd
Pedro Alvarez
Ryan Zimmerman
Adrian Beltre
Nolan Arendado
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Miguel Cabrera | DET | Age: 31 | Rk: 1 (2)
David Wright | NYM | Age: 31 | Rk: 4 (16)
Position: 1B/3B
Position: 3B
Cabrera will not play 3B, which is great for fantasy owners. The
back-to-back MVP struggled mightily down the stretch (.056
ISO in Sep.) due to minor injuries, so the move to 1B should keep
him healthy. Even better for 2014, Cabrera will maintain 3B eligibility. There’s not much to say about his offense as his production
speaks for itself. He’s the best hitter in the game and only 31 years
old. (Note: We ranked him at 1B since he’ll gain it within a week.)
Wright missed the end of last season with a strained hamstring, but
before going down he was having a very good year. The R and RBI
weren’t there, but Wright was on pace for a 20/20 season with a BA
north of .300. With back-to-back seasons of 5-category production,
it’s safe to say Wright is back. But is he now injury-prone? Nope. The
Mets were awful last year and had no reason to push him to return,
and his missed time in 2011 was because of a non-recurring fractured back. Honestly, I’m not sure Wright gets anough attention.
Players with similar stat lines: Paul Goldschmidt; Joey Votto;
Adrian Beltre
2011
2012
2013
2014
161
161
148
159
688
697
652
698
111
109
103
104
2011
2012
2013
2014
12.9
14.1
14.4
14.3
15.7
9.5
13.8
13.3
1.30
1.17
1.03
1.14
30
44
44
38
105
139
137
128
22.1 18.2%
21.7 23.0%
24.0 25.4%
22.7 23.9%
Players with similar stat lines: Eric Hosmer; Hanley Ramirez;
Carlos Gonzalez
2
4
3
3
.344
.330
.348
.330
.317
.330
.345
.330
2011
2012
2013
2014
102
156
112
138
447
670
492
615
60
91
63
82
.365
.331
.356
.338
8.48
10.46
12.02
11.66
7
3
1
2
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.7
16.7
16.1
16.1
11.6
12.1
11.2
11.9
1.07
1.20
0.97
1.07
14
21
18
22
61
93
58
93
18.0 12.0%
22.2 12.5%
22.9 13.0%
21.6 14.1%
13
15
17
18
.254
.306
.307
.300
.240
.283
.301
.280
.302
.347
.340
.318
-0.17
5.25
2.95
5.64
212
25
79
16
Adrian Beltre | TEX | Age: 35 | Rk: 2 (11)
Evan Longoria | TB | Age: 28 | Rk: 5 (27)
Position: 3B
Position: 3B
Like David Ortiz at 1B, Beltre is having a late-career resurgence.
Aside from that 48 HR season everyone tiptoes around like Aunt
Karen’s drinking problem, Beltre has never had more fantasy value. It all started in 2010 with the Red Sox so you can’t just say it’s
Arlington making him look good, and somehow Beltre has posted
the 3 best strikeout rates of his career at ages 32, 33, and 34. He’s
reached the 30 HR mark in 3 straight seasons after doing it only
once *ahem* in his prior 12 years. Don’t fear a breakdown. Not yet.
Players with similar stat lines: Freddie Freeman; Prince Fielder;
Troy Tulowitzki
2011
2012
2013
2014
124
156
161
159
525
654
690
676
82
95
88
88
2011
2012
2013
2014
10.1
12.5
11.3
11.8
4.8
5.5
7.2
5.9
0.86
0.98
0.95
0.94
32
36
30
31
105
102
92
99
18.1 16.4%
21.1 17.0%
21.8 13.5%
20.8 14.8%
When is it time to back off with our Longoria projections and just
plan for something to go wrong? In 2010, he only hit 22 HR. In 2011,
the HR returned but his BA fell to .244. In 2012, he was great on a
per-game basis, but he only played 74 games. Last year, his health
rebounded for a career-best 160 games, but once again his BA was
disappointing. Our projected line gives Longoria a career-best 34
HR with 96 RBI but prevents him from ranking as a top 15 player,
which would be too high for a such a perennially frustrating player.
Players with similar stat lines: Edwin Encarnacion; Prince Fielder;
Albert Pujols
1
1
1
1
.296
.321
.315
.300
.300
.312
.319
.310
2011
2012
2013
2014
133
74
160
154
574
312
693
686
78
39
91
87
.273
.319
.322
.300
4.72
6.64
6.27
6.07
36
14
17
11
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.2
19.6
23.4
19.0
13.9
10.6
10.1
10.1
0.84
0.93
0.83
1.38
31
17
32
34
99
55
88
96
18.0 17.6%
21.9 19.5%
18.6 15.7%
21.2 23.3%
3
2
1
3
.244
.289
.269
.280
.290
.302
.245
.270
.239
.313
.312
.292
2.43
-1.53
4.30
5.04
85
297
45
27
Edwin Encarnacion | TOR | Age: 31 | Rk: 3 (14)
Josh Donaldson | OAK | Age: 28 | Rk: 6 (50)
Position: 1B/3B
Position: 3B
After a monster 2012 season everyone expected some regression,
but Encarnacion basically replicated his numbers across the board
despite suffering a wrist injury. The most impressive thing about
him is his miniscule 10.0 K%, which is unheard of for big-time
power hitters. He may be 31 years old, which should be a factor
in keeper drafts, but those in redraft leagues should be good to
go. These years, a .270/30/100 player is very valuable in fantasy.
Though Donaldson’s minor league track record doesn’t suggest
he’ll repeat his 2013 success, every single one of his peripheral stats does. An 11.4 BB%, 16.5 K%, 20.6 LD%, 14.2 HR/
FB rate and consistent monthly production all indicate that
more of the same is on the way for 2014. He’s clearly not in
the Adrian Beltre-Edwin Encarnacion-David Wright-Evan Longoria class of 3B, but he’s nipping at their heels.
Players with similar stat lines: Evan Longoria; Jay Bruce;
Prince Fielder
2011
2012
2013
2014
134
151
142
156
530
644
621
633
70
93
90
91
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.5
14.6
10.0
13.0
8.1
13.0
13.2
12.6
0.82
0.67
0.81
0.76
17
42
36
34
55
110
104
98
19.4 9.4%
17.6 18.7%
21.6 17.6%
19.7 17.6%
Players with similar stat lines: Eric Hosmer; Jayson Werth;
Aaron Hill
8
13
7
7
.272
.280
.272
.280
.243
.302
.323
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
75
158
155
294
668
650
34
89
84
.292
.266
.247
.268
0.48
6.89
6.08
5.85
170
10
20
14
2011
2012 20.7
2013 16.5
2014 16.6
4.8
11.4
11.4
1.06
1.23
1.15
9
24
23
33
93
80
22.5 11.3%
20.6 14.2%
21.1 14.4%
4
5
8
.241
.301
.290
.259
.276
.290
.278
.333
.315
-4.19
5.33
4.02
543
29
50
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Ryan Zimmerman | WAS | Age: 29 | Rk: 7 (61)
Chase Headley | SD | Age: 30 | Rk: 10 (80)
Position: 3B
Position: 3B
Surprisingly, Zimmerman has missed has missed more than 20
games just twice in his 8-year career (I assumed it was more).
He’s also incredibly consistent (except when thowing to first), hitting at least 25 HR in 4 of 5 years and batting at least .282 in 5 of
6. Zimmerman marks the end of the tier of consistent, everyday 3B (Carpenter is ranked close behind but you’re not using him at 3B). I really like Kyle Seager and Pedro Alvarez, but
Zimmerman is balanced and, SB aside, has no real weaknesses.
Headley has just missed the top 20 at 3B in 2 of the last 3 years, so
which season do we believe: his breakout 2012 or his more-than-disappointing encore? Like with most things in life, the answer is probable, “Somewhere in the middle.” No, Headley isn’t a 30 HR slugger with a 20% HR/FB rate, but a .250 BA despite a 22.6 LD% and a
career-low 5.9 IFFB%? That doesn’t make sense either. Last year we
projected Headley for high-teens HR, with a .280 BA and 80-90 RBI.
We’re keeping this projection because why let one bad year sway us?
Players with similar stat lines: Jason Heyward; Justin Upton;
Kyle Seager
2011
2012
2013
2014
101
145
147
141
440
641
633
637
52
93
84
91
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.6
18.1
21.0
18.8
9.3
8.9
9.5
9.6
1.49
1.44
1.32
1.39
12
25
26
25
49
95
79
74
15.7 10.9%
18.5 16.0%
21.5 17.6%
19.3 17.4%
Players with similar stat lines: Chase Utley; Jason Castro;
Michael Cuddyer
3
5
6
6
.289
.282
.275
.280
.255
.278
.286
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
113
161
141
147
439
699
600
633
43
95
59
72
.326
.313
.316
.308
-1.00
3.79
3.64
3.51
251
52
59
61
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.0
22.5
23.7
23.5
11.8
12.3
11.2
11.5
1.42
1.51
1.47
1.47
4
31
13
16
44
115
50
86
21.9 4.3%
19.5 21.4%
22.6 10.9%
21.3 13.3%
13
17
8
13
.289
.286
.250
.280
.230
.274
.254
.260
.368
.337
.319
.343
-1.45
6.68
-1.03
2.76
282
13
268
80
Matt Carpenter | STL | Age: 28 | Rk: 8 (69)
Pedro Alvarez | PIT | Age: 27 | Rk: 11 (84)
Position: 2B/3B
Position: 3B
Carpenter wasn’t a known commodity to begin the 2013 season,
but that quickly changed as he rode a .318 BA and 126 R to a #2
ranking among all second basemen. If you were good at reading
between the lines you would realize his major flaw from that
statement. How did he only rank 2nd? Because he only contributed 11 HR and 3 SB. Carpenter is a doubles-hitting machine, but if he’s not scoring 100+ R with a .300+ BA it’s likely he will be overvalued on draft day. You’ve been warned.
If I was to ever use the “But power is at a premium!” excuse to target
a player, it would be with Alvarez. In fact, his 2013 season might have
been more valuable than his rank implies. Our rankings algorithm
leverages marginal analysis to give a “bonus” to players who produce
at the extremes of a scarcer commodity -- HR in today’s MLB -- but
it can’t fully account for how having an elite producer of that commodity gives you the flexibility to manage your roster (e.g., pairing
Alvarez with Billy Hamilton). We haven’t seen Alvarez’s ceiling yet.
Players with similar stat lines: Nick Markakis; Aaron Hill;
Yadier Molina
Players with similar stat lines: Mark Trumbo; Mark Teixeira;
Giancarlo Stanton
2011
2012
2013
2014
7
114
157
156
19
340
717
701
0
44
126
98
0
6
11
12
0
46
78
67
0
1
3
5
.067
.294
.318
.300
.067
.253
.324
.300
2011
2012
2013
2014
74
149
152
153
262
586
614
620
18
64
70
72
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.1
18.5
13.7
14.1
21.1
10.0
10.0
10.6
0.83
1.12
1.14
1.11
0.0
23.8
27.3
22.3
0.0%
7.0%
6.1%
6.4%
.091
.346
.359
.333
-2.69
5.72
3.25
397
23
69
2011
2012
2013
2014
30.5
30.7
30.3
30.3
9.2
9.7
7.8
8.9
2.18
1.36
1.18
1.45
4
30
36
36
19
85
100
102
19.5 10.3%
18.7 25.0%
20.5 26.3%
19.7 25.6%
1
1
2
2
.191
.244
.233
.240
.215
.257
.266
.250
.272
.308
.276
.282
-6.65
0.70
2.84
2.64
1071
172
82
84
Kyle Seager | SEA | Age: 26 | Rk: 9 (71)
Pablo Sandoval | SF | Age: 27 | Rk: 12 (101)
Position: 3B
Position: 3B
Bit by bit, Seager is becoming a reliable fantasy option. With Robinson Cano and Corey Hart now forming a very good 3-4 duo, Seager
should be able to set a new career-best in R. He’s only a .260 hitter because of his fly ball tendency in a spacious park, but his K%
and LD% are average. We’ll take a small risk and say something
clicks well enough for him to get into the .270s. The development
of teammates Dustin Ackley (batting leadoff) and Brad Miller (9th)
will decide whether Seager can break beyond our projected 70 RBI.
Fat Ichiro is less fat. Skinny Panda maybe? A lighter Sandoval makes
everyone happy, particularly people like co-founder George Fitopoulos, who has been on the Sandoval train for years. We never
truly know what this “best shape of my career” stuff really means
-- it worked for John Lackey -- but if you had to bet on Sandoval
getting back to his old self or staying at the .275/14/75 level, where
would you put your money? He’s not as reliable (or valuable) as
Pedro Alvarez, but he has more upside than Aramis Ramirez.
Players with similar stat lines: Jason Heyward; Ben Zobrist;
Justin Upton
2011
2012
2013
2014
53
155
160
159
201
651
695
688
22
62
79
89
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.9
16.9
17.6
17.2
6.5
7.1
9.8
9.3
0.73
0.85
0.76
0.78
3
20
22
22
13
86
69
70
27.7 4.8%
21.9 9.8%
20.8 9.9%
21.9 10.6%
Players with similar stat lines: Billy Butler; Jason Castro;
Aramis Ramirez
3
13
9
11
.258
.259
.260
.280
.270
.262
.248
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
117
108
141
138
466
442
584
578
55
59
52
68
.303
.286
.290
.303
-5.40
1.31
2.17
3.13
737
139
107
71
2011
2012
2013
2014
13.5
13.3
13.5
14.9
6.9
8.6
8.0
8.7
1.07
1.17
1.11
0.93
23
12
14
17
70
63
79
83
19.5 16.0%
20.3 9.5%
21.3 8.3%
20.4 10.0%
2
1
0
1
.315
.283
.278
.290
.280
.258
.261
.270
.320
.301
.301
.301
1.85
-0.89
0.28
2.07
112
256
192
101
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Aramis Ramirez | MIL | Age: 36 | Rk: 13 (106)
Xander Bogaerts | BOS | Age: 21 | Rk: 16 (144)
Position: 3B
Position: 3B/SS
Don’t sleep on Milwaukee’s 3B, who actually ranked 5th among
3B in both 2011 and 2012. Injuries limited him to just 351 PA
last year, but Ramirez was on pace for his normal .280/25/90
season. This spring we’ll see how well he’s recovered from the
knee injury that ended his 2013 season prematurely, but if the
140th pick rolls by and you haven’t drafted your 3B yet, Ramirez
makes for a better option than just about anyone else below.
If you’re lucky enough (or aggressive enough) to draft Bogaerts this
spring, you’re probably already penciling in a few .290/25/100 seasons. Those are entirely realistic totals. I’ll readily acknowledge that
in my pursuit to find the “unifying number in fantasy”, I often disregard the intangibles. They’re harder to measure and their effect
on a player’s production and development is speculation at best.
The good thing for prospective Bogaerts owners is that not only
does he have the intangibles, he also has the basic stats we all love.
Players with similar stat lines: Marlon Byrd; Jason Castro;
Nolan Arenado
2011
2012
2013
2014
149
149
92
134
626
630
351
527
80
92
43
69
2011
2012
2013
2014
11.0
13.0
15.7
15.2
6.9
7.0
10.3
9.5
0.79
0.91
1.05
2.09
26
27
12
20
93
105
49
80
23.2 12.0%
18.9 12.9%
19.4 12.1%
21.3 22.2%
Players with similar stat lines: Michael Cuddyer; Chase Utley;
Asdrubal Cabrera
1
9
0
2
.306
.300
.283
.290
.293
.277
.257
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
18
138
50
535
7
71
.308
.310
.308
.304
4.19
5.46
-1.70
1.94
49
22
311
106
2011
2012
2013 26.0
2014 23.2
10.0
8.8
2.50
0.64
1
16
5
73
34.4 16.7%
19.1 9.3%
1
7
.250
.280
.316
.280
.323
.334
-5.96
1.28
792
144
Nolan Arenado | COL | Age: 23 | Rk: 17 (155)
Position: 2B/3B/OF
Position: 3B
Prado might be one of the more consistent players in baseball over the last 4 years. Despite a couple of blips on the radar you can count on a .280-.290 BA, 10-15 HR, 140+ R+RBI,
and fewer than 5 SB. He’s a high-contact hitter, who likes to
keep the ball near the ground (liners and grounders), which
maintains the high batting average. Yes, this is boring analysis for a boring player, but he’s solid across the board and eligible at mulitiple positions, which makes him fairly valuable.
Yadier Molina
2011
2012
2013
2014
Arenado isn’t a pure slugger who’s going to turn Coors Field
into his stomping ground, but he’s a very good hitter who could
post Aramis Ramirez-type numbers in the near future. Unfortunately, though, Arenado is blocked out of the good lineup spots in Colorado, meaning he has to bat 7th for an NL
lineup (ahead of feared slugger, DJ LeMahieu). His BA will almost definitely be good, but 15-20 HR, 70 R, and 70 RBI are
about the best we can expect unless his situation changes.
Players with similar stat lines: Alexander Guerrero; Aramis Ramirez;
Brandon Belt
129
156
155
152
590
690
664
629
66
81
70
72
13
10
14
14
57
70
82
77
4
17
3
4
.260
.301
.282
.290
.251
.306
.298
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
133
151
514
622
49
71
2011 8.8
2012 10.0
2013 8.0
2014 9.2
5.8
8.4
7.1
7.6
1.47
1.65
1.58
1.21
14.6
22.8
21.9
24.1
7.5%
6.2%
8.2%
8.1%
.266
.322
.288
.300
-0.84
2.81
1.80
1.71
245
88
127
117
2011
2012
2013 14.0
2014 12.4
4.5
5.3
1.26
2.39
10
18
52
67
23.8 7.1%
17.4 15.0%
2
2
.267
.280
.288
.290
.296
.300
-1.66
1.14
307
155
Brett Lawrie | TOR | Age: 24 | Rk: 15 (138)
Will Middlebrooks | BOS | Age: 25 | Rk: 18 (160)
Position: 2B/3B
Position: 3B
Despite being just 24 years old, Lawrie has been marked with
a scarlet “B” (bust) as he’s failed to live up to the tremendous
hype he generated after his successful cup of coffee in 2011.
Lawrie has a very good contact rate along with league average power, however he hasn’t harnessed those skills into a true
breakout campaign just yet. Still at 24, Lawrie still has time to
develop into a future All-Star as not all players get it right
off the bat. Let’s give the youngster some time to develop.
In search of cheap power? Then Middlebrooks is your man! A humiliating demotion helped the young 3B get his head on straight
after early success had him believing he could hit anything out. A
more grounded, patient approach combined with Middlebrooks’ raw
strength and Fenway’s Green Monster make a 25-30 HR season an
inevitability. Even though he’s had plenty of ups and downs in his
brief MLB career, Middlebrooks has always provided power. His career totals almost read like a single season -- 660 PA, 32 HR, 103 RBI.
Players with similar stat lines: Avisail Garcia; Asdrubal Cabrera;
Chase Utley
2011
2012
2013
2014
43
125
107
138
171
536
442
556
26
73
41
67
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.1
16.0
15.4
14.9
9.4
6.2
6.8
7.7
0.85
1.69
1.42
3.18
9
11
11
16
25
48
46
75
16.9 17.0%
20.0 9.0%
17.4 9.6%
19.4 21.1%
Players with similar stat lines: Oswaldo Arcia; J.J. Hardy;
Corey Hart
7
13
9
14
.293
.273
.254
.270
.264
.279
.261
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
75
94
134
286
374
523
34
41
67
.318
.311
.280
.291
-3.38
-0.06
-1.88
1.38
465
210
333
138
2011
2012 24.5
2013 26.2
2014 22.9
4.5
5.3
5.7
1.24
1.04
1.31
15
17
24
54
49
76
21.5 21.4%
20.2 17.2%
21.6 20.3%
4
3
4
.288
.227
.260
.286
.264
.270
.335
.263
.297
-1.86
-2.35
1.07
330
361
160
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Cody Asche | PHI | Age: 24 | Rk: 22 (189)
Position: 2B/3B/SS
Position: 3B
but he can definitely bring value just because of his power/speed combo along with valuable position eligibility.
Brad Miller
2011
2012
2013
2014
9
85
147
17
324
556
2
30
74
2011
2012 23.5
2013 19.4
2014 18.0
0.0
8.0
9.4
1.40
1.18
1.63
1
6
13
2
26
53
7.7 20.0%
23.4 7.7%
21.4 11.4%
Maikel Franco isn’t ready to take the Phillies 3B job yet,
which means Asche will get a chance to show what he can
do. His minor league numbers and brief success with the
Phillies last year indicate Asche could be a high-teens, low20s HR hitter, and there’s a chance he posts a league average
K% while maintaining a .270-.280 BA. His numbers won’t
be spectacular and I doubt we’ll suddenly see a Matt Carpenter-esque breakout, but Asche is going to have value.
Players with similar stat lines: Asdrubal Cabrera; Jhonny Peralta;
Neil Walker
0
2
17
.176
.234
.280
.214
.261
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
50
140
179
550
18
62
.167
.280
.315
-7.61
-4.82
0.94
1176
629
165
2011
2012
2013 24.0
2014 20.0
8.4
8.7
1.24
0.79
5
18
22
68
21.0 11.9%
19.9 11.1%
1
6
.235
.270
.251
.280
.287
.309
-5.44
0.37
697
189
Manny Machado | BAL | Age: 21 | Rk: 20 (173)
Anthony Rendon | WAS | Age: 24 | Rk: 23 (216)
Position: 3B
Position: 2B/3B
Season-ending knee surgery, poor 2nd-half production, and an insane amount of hype have all contributed to Machado landing on my
“Hell No” list for 2014. We have him 21st among all 3B, expecting his
free-swinging ways and high IFFB% to make another .320+ BABIP
unlikely, and the rest is pretty much a repeat of what we saw last
year. Machado has been great, but lumping him in with Mike Trout
and Bryce Harper (like many have) is premature. His reputation is
predicated on elite defense, but that won’t help your fantasy team.
While I love his walk rate, he doesn’t seem to have a ton of
category juice (HR and SB) at this time in his career. Danny Espinosa, on the other hand, does, and it wasn’t long
ago that Espinosa had positive value. No, I don’t think Rendon will lose the Nationals’ 2B job to Espinosa, but he could
lose enough playing time to see it severely impact his already depressed fantasy value. Long-term I’m definitely
more bullish, but in the short term I have my reservations.
Players with similar stat lines: Zack Cozart; Brandon Phillips;
Brad Miller
2011
2012
2013
2014
51
156
135
202
710
565
24
88
80
2011
2012 18.8
2013 15.9
2014 14.0
4.5
4.1
4.4
1.17
1.46
1.42
7
14
15
26
71
64
13.9 11.7%
20.6 7.9%
21.6 10.4%
Players with similar stat lines: Yan Gomes; Jed Lowrie;
Daniel Nava
2
6
6
.262
.283
.270
.207
.246
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
98
145
394
525
40
63
.293
.322
.310
-4.87
2.59
0.81
962
90
173
2011
2012
2013 17.5
2014 16.6
7.9
9.5
1.20
1.20
7
15
35
60
25.5 7.2%
25.5 12.3%
1
2
.265
.280
.278
.290
.307
.314
-3.28
-0.11
453
216
Jedd Gyorko | SD | Age: 25 | Rk: 21 (182)
David Freese | LAA | Age: 31 | Rk: 24 (240)
Position: 2B/3B
Position: 3B
Gyorko not only managed to hit 23 HR last year, but he did
so while both playing in San Diego and missing 1 1/2 months
with a groin injury. Add in the fact that 15 of his 23 HR came
after the injury and we are looking at some impressive power,
especially from someone who boasts 2B eligibility. He needs to
work on his plate discipline as his 0.27 BB/K leaves a lot to be
desired, but his rookie season definitely could have gone worse.
Getting traded for an injury-prone gloveman (Peter Bourjos) to
make room for a rookie (Kolten Wong) just has to hurt. Fortunately
for Freese, he landed on a team in desperate need of both a 3B and
a right-handed bat. Freese has shown time and time again that he’s
capable of being a .280-.300 hitter, but a career 25.7 FB% isn’t going
to translate into many HR, especially in Anaheim. You’d also expect
a guy batting 5th to total more than our projected 68 RBI, but Freese’s recent performances haven’t inspired much confidence from me.
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Wieters; Jason Kubel;
J.J. Hardy
2011
2012
2013
2014
125
146
525
604
62
70
2011
2012
2013 23.4
2014 20.2
6.3
8.3
0.94
1.31
23
25
63
76
22.5 15.9%
21.3 18.4%
Players with similar stat lines: James Loney; Yonder Alonso;
Chris Johnson
1
1
.249
.260
.280
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
97
144
138
141
363
567
521
567
41
70
53
55
10
20
9
13
55
79
60
68
1
3
1
2
.297
.293
.262
.280
.312
.301
.272
.290
.287
.279
0.09
0.57
203
182
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.7
21.5
20.3
19.6
6.6
10.1
9.0
9.5
2.27
1.98
2.30
4.65
24.6
21.8
20.9
20.3
16.7%
20.0%
10.5%
24.3%
.356
.352
.320
.329
-1.54
1.75
-1.53
-0.41
292
124
293
240
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Todd Frazier | CIN | Age: 28 | Rk: 25 (250)
Position: 3B
Position: 2B/3B/OF
One of our favorite sleepers last year, Frazier didn’t quite
reach last year’s borderline top-10 3B projection. He was
able to match his 19 HR from 2011, but he also had 135 extra PA in which to do it. His LD% fell under 20.0 as Frazier’s
BA tumbled all the way to .234, but he’s at least a little better than that. A .261/6/13 September has me thinking we finally might get that 25-28 HR season from the Reds 3B, but
but that’s overly optimistic considering his career numbers.
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Davidson; Garrett Jones;
Matt Dominguez
2011
2012
2013
2014
41
128
150
148
121
465
600
596
17
55
63
59
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.3
22.2
20.8
20.1
5.8
7.7
8.3
8.2
1.54
0.74
1.06
0.98
6
19
19
21
15
67
73
75
21.4 23.1%
22.4 13.2%
18.1 11.7%
20.8 13.3%
Josh Reddick
1
3
6
6
.232
.273
.234
.250
.277
.244
.238
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
147
142
118
138
613
581
407
501
75
61
41
68
.253
.316
.269
.272
-5.62
-0.30
-0.10
-0.55
769
222
212
250
2011
2012
2013
2014
26.6
27.4
24.3
24.4
9.8
10.7
8.6
9.2
0.97
1.34
0.84
1.67
21
16
16
19
58
55
52
58
20.4 13.8%
21.0 13.7%
15.2 12.9%
5.9 17.4%
16
14
7
8
.222
.225
.235
.240
.248
.232
.204
.230
.277
.292
.276
.282
-0.16
-1.55
-1.80
-1.10
211
303
322
270
Chris Johnson | ATL | Age: 29 | Rk: 26 (260)
Matt Dominguez | HOU | Age: 24 | Rk: 29 (274)
Position: 1B/3B
Position: 3B
Johnson is not a .320 hitter — you know that — but he is a .280+
hitter. His 27.0 LD% was a blistering and it’s not far off his career rate of 24.9%. In short, Johnson isn’t as good as he was last
year, but he’s pretty darn close. Unfortunately he doesn’t offer much beyond a solid batting average. A 1.65 GB/FB rate
limits his power potential and his weak 0.25 BB/K rate means
he relies way too much on his BABIP for his fantasy value.
Dominguez is the perfect Astro -- he can hit the long
ball, doesn’t like to wait very long for his pitch, and he’s
cheap. If you give somebody with 20 HR power enough PA,
they’ll hit those 20 HR and knock in 70 while they’re at it.
That’s Dominguez in a nutshell. As Bill Simmons would
say, “Ladies and gentlemen, your 2014 Houston Astros!”
Players with similar stat lines: David Freese; Anthony Rendon;
Paul Konerko
2011
2012
2013
2014
107
136
142
138
405
528
547
534
32
48
54
49
2011
2012
2013
2014
24.0
25.0
21.2
22.1
4.0
5.9
5.3
5.6
1.52
1.13
1.65
1.54
7
15
12
14
42
76
68
63
23.2 8.0%
25.6 11.9%
27.0 10.9%
22.7 12.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Garrett Jones; Hunter Morris;
Evan Gattis
2
5
0
2
.251
.281
.321
.280
.263
.270
.299
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
17
31
152
146
48
113
589
566
2
14
56
52
.317
.354
.394
.339
-3.83
-0.15
1.29
-0.84
519
216
147
260
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.7
15.0
16.3
15.7
4.2
3.5
5.1
6.5
1.50
2.00
1.07
1.62
0
5
21
20
2
16
77
74
18.9 0.0%
18.5 20.0%
18.7 11.8%
24.4 16.8%
0
0
0
2
.244
.284
.241
.250
.172
.312
.243
.250
.297
.299
.254
.262
-7.23
-5.90
-0.32
-1.24
1187
1004
227
274
Matt Davidson | CHW | Age: 23 | Rk: 27 (262)
Lonnie Chisenhall | CLE | Age: 25 | Rk: 30 (284)
Position: 3B
Position: 3B
Chase Field, U.S. Cellular, it makes no difference to Davidson. He was put on God’s green earth -- or at least in a major league uniform -- to hit HR. He doesn’t hit a ton of
them, but it’s really his only skill. At this spot in the rankings you’re looking at a player who will go undrafted in almost all formats, but Davidson should be on your watch list
should a hot start lead to a nice buy low, sell high opportunity.
Despite ranking Chisenhall after Chris Johnson and Matt
Dominguez, I would much rather risk it with Chisenhall. His
role is less certain than the flawed players above him, but Chisenhall has a more prototypical prospect profile and could
be on the verge of living up to that .278/81/17/84 potential
he showed at AA in 2010. Or he could be the 2nd coming of
Andy Marte, but I guess that’s why they play the games, right?
Players with similar stat lines: Todd Frazier; Justin Smoak;
Garrett Jones
2011
2012
2013
2014
31
141
87
560
8
62
2011
2012
2013 27.6
2014 25.0
11.5
9.8
1.00
1.01
3
21
12
73
26.9 15.8%
21.0 16.0%
Players with similar stat lines: Hunter Morris; Cody Ross;
Michael Morse
0
2
.237
.250
.281
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
66
43
94
134
223
151
308
526
27
16
30
50
7
5
11
18
22
16
36
67
1
2
1
2
.255
.268
.225
.260
.240
.284
.268
.260
.306
.287
-6.42
-0.86
876
262
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.0
17.9
18.2
17.1
3.6
5.3
5.2
7.6
0.91
1.32
0.91
1.52
19.5
25.2
19.7
18.5
10.1%
13.5%
11.2%
14.9%
.299
.300
.243
.277
-4.69
-5.74
-4.13
-1.45
625
992
539
284
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Nick Castellanos | DET | Age: 22 | Rk: 31 (286)
Juan Uribe | LAD | Age: 35 | Rk: 34 (332)
Position: 3B/OF
Position: 3B
Prince Fielder’s departure opened the door for every day playing time at 3B. Batting between Alex Avila and Jose Iglesias, the
correct approach with Castellanos is to expect the worst and
hope for the best. His 2013 season at AAA was encouraging, particularly his 16.8 K%, 9.1 BB%, and career-best .174 ISO, and
who else is Detroit going to put at third? Miguel Cabrera? Pah!
Players with similar stat lines: Lonnie Chisenhall; Mike Moustakas;
Michael Morse
2011
2012
2013
2014
Uribe amuses me. Last year he hit 12 HR with a 116 wRC+, meaning he was 16% better than a league average hitter, and he posted
some of the best advanced fielding metrics of any 3B. In total, he
was worth 5.1 WAR. I don’t think I’ve found a more eye-popping
stat from the 2013 season than Uribe’s WAR. He played just 132
games and posted nearly the same WAR as Jacoby Ellsbury (5.8 in
136 games) who just signed a $153MM contract. Obviously I’m not
saying Uribe is worth that money, but man, that’s a fun comparison.
Players with similar stat lines: Gordon Beckham; Alberto Callaspo;
Andy Dirks
11
142
18
538
1
58
0
15
0
67
0
2
0.278
0.26
0.197
0.26
2011
2012
2013
2014
77
66
132
135
295
179
426
477
21
15
47
53
2011
2012
2013 5.6
2014 18.8
0
7.8
1.67
4.28
5.9
20.4
0
0.267
0.294
0.288
-7.37
-1.45
1198
286
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.3
20.7
19.0
19.3
5.8
7.3
7.0
7.8
1.01
1.36
1.16
0.80
4
2
12
10
28
17
50
59
17.5 4.6%
16.8 4.5%
20.1 10.5%
22.1 7.1%
2
0
5
2
.204
.191
.278
.260
.183
.213
.268
.260
.245
.234
.322
.300
-5.98
-7.13
-1.02
-2.51
849
1108
266
332
Mike Moustakas | KC | Age: 25 | Rk: 32 (300)
Trevor Plouffe | MIN | Age: 28 | Rk: 35 (336)
Position: 3B
Position: 3B
The player I once dubbed “The Worst Hitter in Baseball” managed just 12 HR and 84 R and RBI COMBINED
in 2013. His LD% was better, but still below league average, and his 16.6 IFFB% was terrible (but, sadly, a career
best). Moustakas has a 20 HR season under his belt already,
but he has a very long way to go before he can get to the
.270/22/80 line that’s required of a corner infielder in fantasy.
Players with similar stat lines: Mike Zunino; Hunter Morris;
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
2011
2012
2013
2014
89
149
136
149
365
614
514
567
26
69
42
55
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.0
20.2
16.1
17.5
6.0
6.4
6.2
7.1
0.93
0.68
0.82
1.18
5
20
12
17
30
73
42
64
20.4 4.2%
16.4 9.0%
18.8 6.9%
21.3 11.6%
An 11 HR month propelled Plouffe to his “where did that come
from?” 24 HR season in 2012. Expecting the same production last
year was foolhardy. When a player performs so far beyond above the
rest of their season’s production for a short period of time, there’s
probably a reason why they’re not playing like that more often.
That doesn’t mean Plouffe can’t hit 18-20 HR. He mangaged 14 last
year despite a noticeable drop in his FB% from 2012. His BA will
be poor but he’ll provide occassional HR pop at a very low price.
Players with similar stat lines: Marcell Ozuna; Casey McGehee;
Mike Zunino
2
5
2
2
.263
.242
.233
.250
.221
.201
.216
.210
2011
2012
2013
2014
81
119
129
141
320
465
522
560
47
56
44
53
.296
.274
.257
.276
-4.40
-0.33
-3.37
-1.81
580
223
464
300
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.2
19.8
21.5
21.4
7.8
8.0
6.5
7.7
1.07
0.87
1.05
0.88
8
24
14
18
31
55
52
63
17.1 9.5%
18.5 16.7%
24.7 10.4%
22.8 11.7%
3
1
2
2
.238
.235
.254
.240
.218
.256
.275
.250
.286
.244
.301
.269
-3.64
-1.58
-1.92
-2.58
496
305
336
336
Mark Reynolds | MIL | Age: 30 | Rk: 33 (323)
Alberto Callaspo | OAK | Age: 31 | Rk: 36 (337)
Position: 1B/3B
Position: 2B/3B
Now in Milwaukee, Reynolds probably won’t get a shot at a fulltime job mostly because his 1 skill is slipping away from him.
His ISO (.173) dipped under .200 and his slugging percentage
(.393) dipped under .400 for the 1st time in his career. We have
him projected for 487 PA, which is probably on the high end,
but in Milwaukee he can should reach the 20 HR mark once
again. We all know where that batting average is going to end up,
but if you play in OBP leagues he could add some value there.
Callaspo has Oakland’s starting 2B job for now, but he’s
a liability on defense and could likely see his role diminished to more of a utility role. His numbers have actually
been amazingly stable over the last four years. That’s not to
say that he’s been anything great, but he’s been consistently below average at the plate. We projected him for another season of the same, which means you should stay away.
Evan Gattis
2011
2012
2013
2014
155
135
135
127
620
538
504
487
84
65
55
59
2011
2012
2013
2014
31.6
29.6
30.6
32.2
12.1
13.6
10.1
10.5
0.82
0.87
0.93
2.19
37
23
21
21
86
69
67
62
13.2 22.7%
20.4 18.1%
18.2 16.9%
21.7 17.0%
Players with similar stat lines: Juan Uribe; Gordon Beckham;
David Murphy
6
1
3
2
.221
.221
.220
.230
.215
.235
.219
.220
2011
2012
2013
2014
141
138
136
133
536
520
516
509
54
55
52
53
6
10
10
10
46
53
58
53
8
4
0
2
.288
.252
.258
.260
.279
.271
.298
.280
.266
.282
.282
.284
2.05
-1.37
-1.08
-2.22
101
291
273
323
2011 9.0
2012 11.3
2013 9.1
2014 9.0
10.8
10.8
10.3
10.6
1.12
1.22
1.12
1.66
22.4
20.7
24.6
21.9
3.8%
7.0%
6.8%
8.6%
.310
.268
.266
.271
-1.04
-2.35
-1.80
-2.58
254
368
323
337
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Brett Wallace | HOU | Age: 27 | Rk: 40 (437)
Position: 2B/3B/SS
Position: 1B/3B
Wallace has made a career out of striking out. He’s a career .242 hitter that many hoped would one day provide 29 HR, 102 RBI seasons. Instead, those are actually his career HR and RBI numbers, which it’s taken
him 1,077 PA to accue. Between Jonathan Singleton and
even Marc Krauss, Wallace won’t rack up nearly enough
PA to have an impact in fantasy leagues this year, but after 40 3B you’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Brandon Crawford
Players with similar stat lines: Ryan Flaherty; Geovany Soto;
Chris Colabello
2011
2012
2013
2014
91
136
124
127
309
546
394
404
31
57
54
50
7
13
9
11
39
60
46
47
14
14
8
2
.255
.250
.252
.250
.236
.250
.247
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
115
66
79
94
379
254
285
376
37
24
35
34
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.2
14.1
10.4
14.1
4.2
4.2
3.8
4.7
0.98
1.04
1.17
1.37
15.7
19.3
19.8
15.7
6.8%
7.5%
7.4%
9.8%
.276
.269
.257
.267
-2.73
-0.83
-1.63
-3.34
395
254
302
377
2011
2012
2013
2014
24.0
28.7
36.5
27.7
9.5
7.1
6.3
7.2
1.95
1.09
1.08
1.00
5
9
13
13
29
24
36
44
21.1 7.6%
26.8 16.4%
22.2 22.0%
17.7 14.4%
1
0
1
2
.259
.253
.221
.240
.240
.269
.220
.250
.339
.331
.310
.299
-4.17
-5.11
-3.70
-4.31
559
643
490
437
DJ LeMahieu | COL | Age: 25 | Rk: 38 (399)
Position: 2B/3B
The utility infielder for the 2013 Rockies, LeMahieu did accrue 434 PA while batting .280 with 18 SB. He’s a surprisingly tall 6’4, but has never hit for much power in the minors. The Rockies’ 2B job is up for grabs and if he can find
himself with another 400+ PA he’ll bring value in both batting average and steals thanks to his high-contact style, but
there’s not much upside for him adding value elsewhere.
Players with similar stat lines: John Jaso; Craig Gentry;
Mark Ellis
2011
2012
2013
2014
37
81
109
118
62
247
434
401
3
26
39
49
0
2
2
3
4
22
28
32
0
1
18
2
.250
.297
.280
.280
.251
.251
.315
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.4
17.0
15.4
15.5
1.6
5.3
4.4
5.5
3.44
2.26
3.03
1.02
16.7
19.0
27.2
20.1
0.0%
4.3%
3.3%
2.5%
.313
.353
.328
.328
-7.10
-4.95
-2.00
-3.78
1166
964
341
399
Jose Iglesias | DET | Age: 24 | Rk: 39 (405)
Position: 3B/SS
A Gold Glove-caliber SS who retains 3B eligibility from his
time with the Red Sox, Iglesias won’t come anywhere near
his .303 BA last season. Our line doesn’t give him much credit for his power or speed -- he could steal 5-10 bases -- but
Iglesias is as bad with the bat as he’s great with the glove.
Players with similar stat lines: Adeiny Hechavarria; Pedro Florimon;
Drew Stubbs
2011
2012
2013
2014
10
25
109
152
6
77
382
572
3
5
39
66
0
1
3
5
0
2
29
40
0
1
5
9
.333
.118
.303
.240
.338
.166
.240
.240
2011
2012
2013
2014
33.3
20.8
15.7
13.5
0.0
5.2
3.9
5.2
3.00
2.31
2.21
1.55
25.0
15.7
18.0
21.9
0.0%
7.7%
4.2%
3.7%
.500
.137
.356
.267
-7.17
-2.60
-3.81
1177
385
405
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2013: Shortstop Year in Review
We rated some of last year’s best Shortstop on both consistency and statistical balance based on their 2013 performance (small sample size
Better
in H2H
More
consistency
Great
Player
Andrelton
Simmons
Jimmy Rollins
Alexei Ramirez
J.J. Hardy
Asdrubal Cabrera
Ben Zobrist
Troy Tulowitzki
Stephen Drew
Jed Lowrie
Less
balance
Jean Segura
More
balance
Ian Desmond
Zack Cozart
Yunel Escobar
Erick Aybar
Elvis Andrus
Better
in Roto
Bad
Player
Less
consistency
Facebook
30.0%
25.0%
HR/FB
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
240
250
260
270
280
290
Average FB Distance
300
310
320
Facebook
.360
Unlucky
.340
.320
.300
.280
.260
.240
.220
Lucky
.200
.200
.220
.240
.260
.280
.300
.320
.340
.360
Batting Average
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Shortstop 2014 Preview
Rk
Prospect
Team
Age
1 Xander Bogaerts
BOS
21
2 Carlos Correa
HOU
19
3 Javier Baez
CHC
21
4 Addison Russell
OAK
20
5 Francisco Lindor
CLE
20
ETA
Comments
My love of Bogaerts is well documented. He leads the most talented group on this list.
Early 2014 What gets Bogaerts the nod over his peers is his floor, his advanced approach is much
more polished than Baez and his ceiling is very similar.
What Correa did last season at his age was remarkable slashing .320/.405/.467 at A-ball.
At just 18 Correa could end up the best player on this list. Correa has the work ethic and
2016
makeup of a veteran already: that coupled with his immense talent makes his future
incredibly bright.
Baez does everything 100% on the baseball field and swings at pitches most guys
wouldn’t even offer at. The difference is Baez is able to square up bad pitches and launch
Mid-2014
them out of the park when he does. His fantasy ceiling is the highest on this list but his
swing and miss potential makes his floor the lowest of our top 4 SS prospects.
Russell was challenged by his promotion to high A Stockton at 19 years old last season
and struggled to find his way initially. He made improvements at the plate and
2015
defensively and is a pretty sure thing to stick at short. He headlines a very weak Oakland
system.
Despite the label of defense first shortstop the young Indians shortstop is a lock to stay at
Late 2014 the position and have the potential to offer a prime very similar to Elvis Andrus who was
our 5th ranked SS going into this season.
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Player Name
Troy Tulowitzki
Hanley Ramirez
Jose Reyes
Ian Desmond
Elvis Andrus
Ben Zobrist
Jean Segura
Everth Cabrera
Alexei Ramirez
Xander Bogaerts
Starlin Castro
Erick Aybar
J.J. Hardy
Jimmy Rollins
Jurickson Profar
$ Value
$24
$23
$21
$21
$18
$12
$12
$10
$7
$6
$5
$5
$4
$4
$3
Rank
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Player Name
Brad Miller
Asdrubal Cabrera
Andrelton Simmons
Josh Rutledge
Jed Lowrie
Zack Cozart
Jhonny Peralta
Jonathan Villar
Alcides Escobar
Derek Jeter
Chris Owings
Jordy Mercer
Rafael Furcal
Yunel Escobar
Mike Aviles
$ Value
$3
$3
$3
$1
$1
$1
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
A Closer Look...Shortstop Superlatives
Superlative
Biggest Risk
Safest Bet
Mid-Round Sleeper
Late-Round Sleeper
Post-Hype Sleeper
Best Value Pick
Round I'll Draft SS
Matt Commins
Hanley Ramirez
Ian Desmond
Starlin Castro
Jonathan Villar
Jean Segura
Starlin Castro
Everth Cabrera
J.J. Hardy
Hanley Ramirez
11th
Jose Reyes
Jose Reyes
Jonathan Villar
Xander Bogaerts
Eric Broutman
Hanley Ramirez
Ian Desmond
Starlin Castro
Andrelton Simmons
Jean Segura
Starlin Castro
J.J. Hardy
Ben Zobrist
Troy Tolowitski
1st-5th
Elvis Andrus
Alexi Ramirez
J.J. Hardy
Andrelton Simmons
Paul Beck
Hanley Ramirez
J.J. Hardy
Everth Cabrera
Johnny Peralta
Derek Jeter
Dee Gordon
Everth Cabrera
Erick Aybar
Starlin Castro
5th-8th
Andrelton Simmons
Ian Desmond
Everth Cabrera
Andrelton Simmons
Adam Nodiff
Hanley Ramirez
Ian Desmond
Everth Cabrera
Brad Miller
Jean Segura
Starlin Castro
J.J. Hardy
Troy Tulowitzki
Elvis Andrus
1st-2nd
J.J. Hardy
Hanley Ramirez
Ian Desmond
Xander Bogaerts
Jake Devereaux
Jose Reyes
Elvis Andrus
Xander Bogaerts
Brad Miller
Starlin Castro
Zack Cozart
J.J. Hardy
Stephen Drew
Jose Reyes
4th
Jose Reyes
Hanley Ramirez
Elvis Andrus
Xander Bogaerts
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Troy Tulowitzki | COL | Age: 29 | Rk: 1 (13)
Ian Desmond | WAS | Age: 28 | Rk: 4 (48)
Position: SS
Position: SS
Having missed 210 games over the last 4 years, Tulowitzki has
played in exactly 67.6% of all possible games. That number is a little skewed by his 47-game season in 2012, but even then he’s only
topped 126 games in 3 of his 7 season and just 2 of his past 6. Like
teammate Carlos Gonzalez, we keep putting Tulo at the top because if he’s healthy he deserves to be here. Plus, barring a devastating injury that costs him more than 30 games, Tulo+Field = #1.
Desmond was THISCLOSE to toppline Reyes for a spot in our top
3, but in the end we couldn’t give him enough R or RBI batting 6th
for Washington. A hitter with a 20%+ strikeout rate, it’s going to take
BABIPs of .320 or better for Desmond to remain a .280 hitter, but
last year he set a new career high in LD% and he has good speed
down the line. Will Desmond’s K% bet back to the sub-20% rates
we saw in his first big league action? It’s possible, but batting after
the heart of the lineup has turned Desmond into more of a slugger.
Players with similar stat lines: Robinson Cano; Freddie Freeman;
Adrian Beltre
2011
2012
2013
2014
143
47
126
136
606
203
512
580
81
33
72
82
2011 13.0
2012 9.4
2013 16.6
2014 16.2
9.7
9.4
11.1
11.0
1.07
1.25
1.10
1.14
30
8
25
29
105
27
82
95
19.5 16.8%
16.7 13.3%
20.8 18.1%
19.7 20.3%
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Kemp; Hanley Ramirez;
Alex Rios
9
2
1
5
.302
.287
.312
.310
.290
.294
.307
.300
2011
2012
2013
2014
154
130
158
156
639
547
655
645
65
72
77
75
.305
.284
.334
.319
5.62
-4.00
3.79
5.86
30
524
54
13
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.8
20.7
22.1
20.6
5.5
5.5
6.6
6.0
1.70
1.38
1.27
1.51
8
25
20
22
49
73
80
77
17.5 6.0%
17.9 18.2%
22.5 12.9%
22.4 16.0%
25
21
21
23
.253
.292
.280
.280
.225
.272
.272
.260
.317
.332
.336
.322
-0.13
3.75
4.39
4.09
210
53
43
48
Hanley Ramirez | LAD | Age: 30 | Rk: 2 (29)
Elvis Andrus | TEX | Age: 25 | Rk: 5 (60)
Position: SS
Position: SS
In our early 2014 mock draft, Ramirez went 8th overall. I mocked the pick at the time, but after compiling
our HanRam projection about 2 months later, I realized there was some validity to the thought process. No,
I wouldn’t take Ramirez in the first 2 rounds, but I also
didn’t think I’d have him going for a .280/25/86 season with
19 SB. Ramirez played under 100 games in 2 of the last 3
years, but he’s healthy now so draft him with confidence.
I’ve never been a fan of Andrus, but this offseason I was struck by
a curious notion -- is Andrus really that much different than Jose
Reyes? Last year Andrus rode 91 R, 42 SB, and 61 RBI to 3rd among
SS, a spot befitting a player like Reyes. Andrus has virtually no injury concerns, which gives him a leg up on Reyes, and if he’s going
to contribute 35+ SB with 90+ R, how different can the 2 really be?
Reyes will almost certainly post a better BA and hit more HR -- and
he definitely has the higher ceiling -- but Andrus has the stability.
Players with similar stat lines: Jayson Werth; Matt Kemp;
Bryce Harper
2011
2012
2013
2014
92
157
86
146
385
667
336
640
55
79
62
82
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.1
19.8
15.5
16.1
11.4
8.1
8.0
8.1
1.53
1.37
1.08
1.90
10
24
20
25
45
92
57
86
15.9 11.1%
18.4 14.7%
22.0 21.1%
20.3 20.1%
Players with similar stat lines: Jose Altuve; Jean Segura;
Brett Gardner
20
21
10
19
.243
.257
.345
.280
.246
.257
.304
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
150
158
156
158
665
711
698
699
96
85
91
92
5
3
4
4
60
62
67
62
37
21
42
38
.279
.286
.271
.280
.319
.290
.273
.290
.275
.290
.363
.297
-1.02
3.38
2.80
4.86
253
63
85
29
2011
2012
2013
2014
11.1
13.5
13.9
13.7
8.4
8.0
7.4
8.0
2.65
2.72
2.51
2.61
23.1
21.9
21.3
21.9
4.8%
2.8%
3.4%
3.4%
.312
.332
.312
.319
3.56
1.72
4.38
3.57
61
126
44
60
Jose Reyes | TOR | Age: 31 | Rk: 3 (40)
Ben Zobrist | TB | Age: 33 | Rk: 6 (65)
Position: SS
Position: 2B/SS
Like the 2 guys ahead of him, Reyes is frequently tagged with
the “injury prone” label, but that didn’t stop him from ranking 1st overall at the position in 2012 and 2nd in 2011 (despite playing in just 126 games!). Reyes has a history of hamstring issues, but last year it was a new injury -- a high ankle
sprain sliding into a base. That’s a freak injury that could happen to anyone, so I’m not going to worry much about it this
preseason. Until further notice, Reyes is his usual 30+ SB self.
Zobrist just barely reached the 10 GS mark (11) to gain the
much-vaunted SS eligibility in almost every league, and that’s a
big deal as there’s no doubt that his stat line is more valuable as a
middle infielder. He’s not a bad OF option as well, but in 2013 he
struggled in the power department, specifically from the right
side of the plate. His .083 ISO was in 2013 was 100 points lower than his .183 ISO in 2012. If he can fix whatever was ailing
him from that side then we should see a nice rebound in 2014.
Players with similar stat lines: Jose Altuve; Desmond Jennings;
Daniel Murphy
2011
2012
2013
2014
Players with similar stat lines: Justin Upton; Kyle Seager;
Jason Heyward
126
160
93
142
586
716
419
623
101
86
58
89
7
11
10
13
44
57
37
57
39
40
15
32
.337
.287
.296
.290
.281
.291
.287
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
156
157
157
154
674
668
698
680
99
88
77
93
2011 7.0
2012 7.8
2013 11.2
2014 9.3
7.3
8.8
8.1
8.7
1.14
1.43
1.38
1.14
21.1
21.7
21.2
20.9
3.9%
5.9%
9.0%
7.1%
.353
.298
.315
.307
5.61
4.15
0.24
4.50
31
42
194
40
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.0
15.4
13.0
12.9
11.4
14.5
10.3
11.8
1.30
1.24
1.14
1.30
20
20
12
21
91
74
71
77
19.6 12.4%
21.8 12.5%
19.7 6.1%
18.7 12.4%
19
14
11
11
.269
.270
.275
.270
.254
.289
.253
.260
.310
.296
.303
.285
4.33
2.57
1.96
3.35
45
97
117
65
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Jean Segura | MIL | Age: 24 | Rk: 7 (77)
Xander Bogaerts | BOS | Age: 21 | Rk: 10 (144)
Position: SS
Position: 3B/SS
Here’s what we know about Segura: He has elite speed, the Brewers
will let him run (57 attempts in 2013), and he can hit 10-14 HR. What
we don’t know is whether Segura can repeat his .326 BABIP with below average line drive rates and how seriously we should take his significant 2nd-half slide. Segura batted just .241 after the break with
a 3.5 BB%, 15.9 K%, and 15.5 LD%, the first and last of which are
terrible. Segura will steal his bases and score runs atop Milwaukee’s
lineup (Ryan Braun is back!) but the BA could be underwhelming.
If you’re lucky enough (or aggressive enough) to draft Bogaerts
this spring, you’re probably already penciling in a few .290/25/100
seasons. Those are entirely realistic totals. I’ll readily acknowledge
that in my pursuit to find the “unifying number in fantasy”, I often disregard the intangibles. They’re harder to measure and their
effect on a player’s production and development is speculation at
best. The good thing for prospective Bogaerts owners is that not
only does he have the intangibles, he has the basic stats we all love.
Players with similar stat lines: Brett Gardner; Jose Altuve;
Michael Bourn
2011
2012
2013
2014
45
146
146
166
623
640
19
74
88
2011
2012 13.9
2013 13.5
2014 13.4
7.8
4.0
5.9
3.42
2.52
2.88
0
12
8
14
49
50
15.2 0.0%
18.0 10.4%
17.5 7.5%
Players with similar stat lines: Michael Cuddyer; Chase Utley;
Asdrubal Cabrera
7
44
41
.258
.294
.270
.241
.307
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
18
138
50
535
7
71
.302
.326
.301
-5.79
4.86
2.90
994
36
77
2011
2012
2013 26.0
2014 23.2
10.0
8.8
2.50
0.64
1
16
5
73
34.4 16.7%
19.1 9.3%
1
7
.250
.280
.316
.280
.323
.334
-5.96
1.28
792
144
Everth Cabrera | SD | Age: 27 | Rk: 8 (86)
Starlin Castro | CHC | Age: 24 | Rk: 11 (145)
Position: SS
Position: SS
Much to the dismay of fantasy owners who were riding his breakout
season, particularly in H2H leagues, Cabrera inevitably succumbed
to Uncle Bud’s 50 game PED suspension. Going forward, the SB are
going to be there, but Cabrera’s status as a borderline top 5 SS comes
down to how much of his .283 BA and 82 R pace he can maintain. A
career-best 15.9 K% was the biggest driver in raising his BA, and a .337
BABIP is repeatable for such a speedy player. The stats say Cabrera
should repeat, but we had to account for the PED X-factor at least a little.
Players with similar stat lines: Jean Segura; Brett Gardner;
Leonys Martin
Castro ranked 4th among SS in 2011 and 7th in 2012 before falling
outside the top 20 last year. His 18.3 K% was easily a career worst,
and it was exacerbated by his already poor sub-5.0% walk rate. When
Castro did make contact, he usually hit the ball into the ground, and
to make matters worse he attempted just 15 steals last year, which is
10 fewer attempts than he had successes in 2012 (25). As much as I
don’t like projecting so many career bests all to carry over (see: Everth
Cabrera), the same holds true for career worsts. Castro will be better.
Players with similar stat lines: Alexei Ramirez; Andrelton Simmons;
Melky Cabrera
2011
2012
2013
2014
2
115
95
148
9
449
435
676
1
49
54
82
0
2
4
4
0
24
31
41
2
44
37
50
.125
.246
.283
.270
.220
.230
.285
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
158
162
161
160
715
691
705
700
91
78
59
74
10
14
10
10
66
78
44
71
22
25
9
17
.307
.283
.245
.270
.290
.277
.257
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
33.3
24.5
15.9
16.9
11.1
9.6
9.4
9.6
5.00
3.00
3.19
4.82
0.0
19.1
20.6
19.8
0.0%
3.7%
7.0%
6.5%
.200
.336
.337
.319
-0.92
0.95
2.54
257
161
86
2011
2012
2013
2014
13.4
14.5
18.3
15.1
4.9
5.2
4.3
5.9
1.55
1.48
1.73
1.13
20.1
20.5
19.9
23.1
5.5%
8.0%
6.3%
5.2%
.344
.315
.290
.306
4.19
3.32
-1.84
1.26
50
66
328
145
Alexei Ramirez | CHW | Age: 32 | Rk: 9 (135)
Erick Aybar | LAA | Age: 30 | Rk: 12 (149)
Position: SS
Position: SS
Putting Ramirez 9th in our preseason SS rankings doesn’t sit well
with me, but stats are stats and Ramirez earned every point of his
.283 BA and each one of his career-best 39 steal attempts. Over the
last 4 years, his HR total has consistently fallen, but so has his K%. He
also had a career-best 22.1 LD%, which is significant for a player who
couldn’t even hit 19% during his 1st 3 years. I don’t like predicting
so many career bests all to carry over, hence why we drop his BA to
.270, but he also hit 5 HR in the 2nd half, so expect that total to rise.
Batting somewhere around Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh
Hamilton (even though he’s no longer that same Josh Hamilton), Aybar has to have value, right? Pay attention this spring
to how both Aybar and new left fielder Kole Calhoun perform. Aybar is in a great spot batting 1st or 2nd with Trout
bothering opposing SP, but should Calhoun seize the leadoff role as reports suggest, Aybar gets relegated to the bottom
of the lineup where Chris Iannetta will keep him company.
Players with similar stat lines: Starlin Castro; Jimmy Rollins;
Andrelton Simmons
Players with similar stat lines: Angel Pagan; Adam Eaton;
Denard Span
2011
2012
2013
2014
158
158
158
158
684
621
674
668
81
59
68
71
15
9
6
10
70
73
48
66
7
20
30
21
.269
.265
.284
.270
.260
.270
.278
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
143
141
138
146
605
554
589
610
71
67
68
83
10
8
6
7
59
45
54
51
30
20
12
22
.279
.290
.271
.280
.281
.264
.287
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
12.3
12.4
10.1
10.0
7.5
2.6
3.9
4.2
1.29
1.38
1.67
1.16
19.3
19.8
22.1
20.4
8.1%
5.1%
3.6%
4.9%
.288
.290
.309
.292
1.17
0.49
2.21
1.42
134
185
106
135
2011
2012
2013
2014
11.2
11.0
10.0
10.8
5.1
4.0
3.9
5.1
1.54
1.78
1.81
1.26
20.7
18.5
22.9
23.8
7.0%
6.4%
4.6%
4.2%
.301
.316
.292
.302
2.27
0.56
0.04
1.21
93
177
205
149
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Brad Miller | SEA | Age: 24 | Rk: 16 (176)
Position: 2B/3B/SS
Position: 2B/SS
but he can definitely bring value just because of his power/speed combo along with valuable position eligibility.
Brad Miller
2011
2012
2013
2014
9
85
147
17
324
556
2
30
74
2011
2012 23.5
2013 19.4
2014 18.0
0.0
8.0
9.4
1.40
1.18
1.63
1
6
13
2
26
53
7.7 20.0%
23.4 7.7%
21.4 11.4%
Miller has a lot of bad organizational history to overcome, but
I actually think he’s going to do it. With great plate discipline
and enough power/speed, all that’s left to do is see whether
he can finally reach that .270, 15 HR, 15 SB level that we’ve
been waiting for Dustin Ackley to reach. There aren’t many
SS, especially at this point of the rankings, who can contribute solidly across all 5 fantasy categories like Miller can.
Players with similar stat lines: Jurickson Profar; Austin Jackson;
Manny Machado
0
2
17
.176
.234
.280
.214
.261
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
76
152
335
646
41
77
8
13
36
57
5
12
.265
.270
.261
.280
.167
.280
.315
-7.61
-4.82
0.94
1176
629
165
2011
2012
2013 15.5
2014 16.3
7.2
9.0
1.42
1.03
21.6
21.6
9.9%
7.6%
.294
.307
-2.70
0.71
394
176
J.J. Hardy | BAL | Age: 31 | Rk: 14 (167)
Asdrubal Cabrera | CLE | Age: 28 | Rk: 17 (181)
Position: SS
Position: SS
Hardy has just barely cracked the top 10 SS in 2 of the last 3 seasons,
riding the position’s 2nd-best power bat (Troy Tulowitzki) to fantasy
stardom. OK, stardom may be taking it too far, but who wouldn’t
want a 25 HR, 75 RBI SS? In a good year he’ll score 75+ R, but you’re
never going to get more than a pair of SB and his BA will range from
acceptable to ouch. Hardy’s career 16.8 LD% is laughably bad, but
last year he worked his K% down to 11.3. If he can keep that in the
11-13% range, he could post a .270+ BA for the 1st time since 2008.
Last year’s .242 BA shouldn’t worry you at all. Cabrera had another very good LD% and was well below the league average in
IFFB%, yet he posted just a .283 BABIP. He’s a .270-.275 hitter
with mid-teens HR power and the speed to regularly reach 10
SB (or thereabouts). Batting 6th for Cleveland, as he’s expected to, will hurt his R and RBI numbers, but we might even be a
little on the low side there. We’ve already seen Cabrera’s career
year, but that doesn’t mean the rest of his seasons are useless.
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Adams; Will Middlebrooks;
Jedd Gyorko
2011
2012
2013
2014
129
158
159
155
567
713
644
641
76
85
66
67
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.2
14.9
11.3
14.0
5.5
5.3
5.9
6.2
0.93
1.09
1.18
0.79
30
22
25
26
80
68
76
74
16.4 15.7%
16.9 10.0%
16.6 12.4%
20.1 12.1%
Players with similar stat lines: Cody Asche; Corey Dickerson;
Jhonny Peralta
0
0
2
1
.269
.238
.263
.260
.266
.245
.268
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
151
143
136
144
667
616
562
596
87
70
66
62
25
16
14
16
92
68
64
70
17
9
9
9
.273
.270
.242
.270
.263
.270
.260
.260
.273
.253
.263
.269
2.22
-0.43
1.65
0.88
94
228
134
167
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.8
16.1
20.3
18.1
6.6
8.4
6.2
6.7
1.13
1.16
0.89
0.94
17.5
23.4
23.0
22.5
13.3%
9.9%
8.7%
9.5%
.302
.303
.283
.309
4.38
0.64
-0.20
0.59
44
173
222
181
Jimmy Rollins | PHI | Age: 35 | Rk: 15 (175)
Andrelton Simmons | ATL | Age: 24 | Rk: 18 (186)
Position: SS
Position: SS
I think we’re going to see 1 more good season out of Rollins. Our projected 11 HR isn’t quite what he used to be able
to do, but after last year’s 6 HR season, we’ll take anything.
His LD% was very good and his HR/FB rate fell to about half
of his previous career low, so he’ll definitely get better. Plus,
don’t forget he’s just 2 years removed from a 23 HR season. I’m
not saying Rollins will return to top 10 SS status, but something in the 12-17 range is likely given he still has his speed.
Last year we all thought Simmons would steal 15-20 bases and crack a
couple HR. Instead, he flipped those totals, probably ending up at about
the same spot in end-of-year rankings as he was projected from the
outset. I think he has too much speed to have the SB vanish, but unless
we get news out of Atlanta that the team wants him to run more, consider our projected 17 SB an indication of how athletic we think Simmons is. He pulled almost every single HR directly down the left field
line and displayed zero opposite field power, so expect his HR to drop.
Players with similar stat lines: Andrelton Simmons; Will Venable;
Christian Yelich
2011
2012
2013
2014
142
156
160
153
631
699
666
665
87
102
65
72
2011 9.4
2012 13.7
2013 14.0
2014 14.3
9.2
8.9
8.9
9.0
0.95
0.95
0.98
1.18
16
23
6
11
63
68
39
59
20.2 7.7%
19.0 10.4%
23.6 3.1%
19.1 6.0%
Players with similar stat lines: Junior Lake; Jimmy Rollins;
Christian Yelich
30
30
22
23
.268
.250
.252
.260
.271
.240
.245
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
49
157
158
182
658
671
17
76
68
3
17
12
19
59
61
1
6
17
.289
.248
.270
.253
.263
.270
.275
.262
.288
.292
3.25
3.85
-0.55
0.74
66
50
237
175
2011
2012 11.5
2013 8.4
2014 7.0
6.6
6.1
6.3
2.05
1.08
0.84
17.0
18.5
24.3
7.5%
7.9%
5.1%
.310
.247
.270
-5.60
0.22
0.43
986
195
186
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Josh Rutledge | COL | Age: 25 | Rk: 19 (193)
Jhonny Peralta | STL | Age: 32 | Rk: 22 (239)
Position: 2B/SS
Position: SS
Rutledge is stuck in the black hole of MLB lineup slots: batting 8th for an NL team (in front of the pitcher). Generally that
means he’ll be pitched around, and it’ll severely limit his R and
RBI numbers. Despite playing in Coors, Rutledge doesn’t have
a ton of power potential, but he does have enough speed to top
15 steals. With some luck he could combine for 30 HR+SB, and
he has the ability to bat at least .270. There’s a lot of “ifs” and
a lot of potential with Rutledge, who has just 605 career PA.
Jhonny Peralta is dfenitely an ugprade for the Cradinals, who
sfufered trhough smoe afwul SS paly lsat saeson. A 50-gmae ssupension edned his saeson eraly, but he cmae bcak for the palyoffs
and tehn sgined a ncie offseason cnotract. Wehn looking at Peralta’s 2013 saeson, two nmubers jmup out at me: his .374 BABIP
and 21.9 K%. The K% has been ternding in the worng driection rceently, mvoing bcak twoard his eraly-craeer rtaes wehn he
was a 20 HR htiter, so myabe smoe of the pwoer is cmoing bcak.
Players with similar stat lines: Kolten Wong; Jurickson Profar;
Alejandro De Aza
2011
2012
2013
2014
73
88
141
291
314
467
37
45
68
2011
2012 18.6
2013 19.7
2014 18.2
3.1
7.0
6.6
1.59
1.51
1.12
8
7
11
37
19
48
20.1 11.6%
18.5 9.7%
20.6 8.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Yan Gomes; Andre Ethier;
Carlos Quentin
7
12
18
.274
.235
.280
.283
.266
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
146
150
107
147
576
585
448
570
68
58
50
61
.315
.276
.319
-3.07
-3.27
0.27
425
452
193
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.5
17.9
21.9
19.3
6.9
8.4
7.8
7.9
0.81
1.13
1.09
1.23
21
13
11
16
86
63
55
68
20.0 10.8%
22.0 8.3%
25.2 9.8%
24.5 12.0%
0
1
3
2
.299
.239
.303
.270
.252
.261
.276
.260
.325
.275
.374
.309
2.38
-2.37
-0.19
-0.40
86
370
221
239
Jed Lowrie | OAK | Age: 30 | Rk: 20 (212)
Jonathan Villar | HOU | Age: 23 | Rk: 23 (243)
Position: 2B/SS
Position: SS
Lowrie has a lengthy injury history yet somehow stayed
on the field for 154 games last year. I’m not saying that was
completely fluky and that Lowrie can’t put up another 150
game season, but I am saying that I certainly won’t be gambling on Lowrie doing it again. I’ll let someone else take
that risk as he’ll likely go a lot earlier than this rankings
suggests he should. If you do take a chance on him as your
starting SS, then make sure you have a viable backup plan.
Villar is worth monitoring solely for his speed. In just 58
games with Houston last year, he swiped 18 bags, which,
combined with the 31 he stole at AAA, gave him 49 on the
year. While Villar can definitely work a lot of walks, sometimes he takes his patience to the extreme -- his K% tends to
be around 25, way too high for a speed-first player. It’s likely Villar ends up as Houston’s everyday SS, and there’s even
some hidden 12-15 HR potential should get get 500+ PA.
Players with similar stat lines: Daniel Nava; Anthony Rendon;
David Freese
2011
2012
2013
2014
88
97
154
138
341
387
662
525
40
43
80
68
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.6
16.8
13.7
16.4
6.7
11.1
7.6
8.4
0.67
0.57
0.77
0.68
6
16
15
12
36
42
75
66
17.6 4.8%
19.3 11.3%
23.4 6.8%
21.3 6.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Ben Revere; Alcides Escobar;
Will Venable
1
2
1
1
.252
.244
.290
.280
.220
.257
.268
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
58
149
241
565
26
65
1
8
8
42
18
33
.243
.250
.217
.250
.289
.257
.319
.319
-3.82
-3.01
2.25
-0.01
518
422
103
212
2011
2012
2013 29.5
2014 24.8
10.0
8.1
4.67
1.19
20.3
17.2
5.6%
5.7%
.362
.319
-4.37
-0.45
566
243
Zack Cozart | CIN | Age: 28 | Rk: 21 (234)
Alcides Escobar | KC | Age: 27 | Rk: 24 (248)
Position: SS
Position: SS
Cozart has shaken some of his supporters, but he’s hit 15 and 12 HR
in the last 2 seasons while upping his RBI total to 63 last year. Batting
2nd in Cincy is nice, especially if Joey Votto can do what a number
3 hitter is supposed to do and drive those top 2 guys in. A 30 SB
guy in the minors, Cozart surprisingly has just 4 SB in 300 career
games, but it’s conceivable that the Reds SS could run more with a
new manager at the helm. Should Cozart reach our projection with
another half-dozen SB mixed in, his line would look pretty nice.
Escobar always does enough to make you wonder whether he’s worth rostering, but the 12-18 range is pretty much the
best-case scenario for a .270 batter with 25 SB speed, very little power, and a sprinling of R and RBI. Escobar never walks,
so don’t even think about targeting or adding him in an OBP
league, but he’s reliably hit line drives well over 20% of the time
in the last 2 seasons. One year it showed up in his BA (2012)
and the other year it didn’t (2013). We’ll split the difference.
Players with similar stat lines: Andre Ethier; Manny Machado;
Neil Walker
Players with similar stat lines: Michael Bourn; Coco Crisp;
Jonathan Villar
2011
2012
2013
2014
11
138
151
155
38
600
618
626
6
72
74
74
2
15
12
15
3
35
63
62
0
4
0
4
.324
.246
.254
.260
.283
.252
.241
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
158
155
158
156
598
648
642
645
69
68
57
70
4
5
4
4
46
52
52
51
26
35
22
27
.254
.293
.234
.260
.262
.288
.279
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
15.8
18.8
16.5
17.3
0.0
5.2
4.2
4.5
1.80
1.09
1.59
1.03
9.7
20.0
18.0
22.6
20.0%
8.8%
8.1%
8.4%
.345
.282
.285
.297
-6.60
-2.12
-0.57
-0.29
1055
349
240
234
2011
2012
2013
2014
12.2
15.4
13.1
13.0
4.2
4.2
3.0
4.5
1.86
2.25
1.49
2.12
18.1
23.0
23.0
23.8
3.0%
4.3%
2.5%
3.1%
.285
.344
.264
.290
-0.30
2.27
-1.38
-0.52
216
106
288
248
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Derek Jeter | NYY | Age: 40 | Rk: 25 (258)
Rafael Furcal | MIA | Age: 36 | Rk: 28 (287)
Position: SS
Position: 2B/SS
Just when you thought the Yankees couldn’t top the Mariano Rivera Farewell Tour, here comes the Derek Jeter Farewell Tour.
I think the Captain goes out on a positive note (or as positive
as his aging body will allow), and that means a .280 BA and a little over 70 R. Would it surprise me if Jeter somehow stays healthy
enough for 650 PA, 90 R, 10 HR, 60 RBI, 10 SB, and a .285 BA.
Not in the least. SS lacks high-upside options late -- it always
has -- and Jeter’s final season offers a different kind of upside.
Analyzing Furcal is easy because you don’t even have to
get into his declining production at the plate. He can’t stay
healthy! Let’s ignore the fact that he missed all of 2013 after Tommy John surgery, but he also missed 41 games in
2012, 75 games in 2011, and 65 games in 2010. Even if he
were Mike Trout you wouldn’t be drafting him with that
spotty of an injury history. And let me tell you something, Furcal ain’t nothing like Trout. Ain’t never was.
Players with similar stat lines: Omar Infante; Jordy Mercer;
Daniel Nava
2011
2012
2013
2014
131
159
17
141
607
740
73
589
84
99
8
72
2011
2012
2013
2014
13.3
12.2
13.7
13.6
7.6
6.1
11.0
7.0
3.36
3.94
7.60
1.43
6
15
1
8
61
58
7
48
19.0 7.0%
21.7 16.1%
20.4 20.0%
25.8 5.8%
Jackie Bradley
16
9
0
5
.297
.316
.190
.280
.293
.342
.342
.320
2011
2012
2013
2014
87
121
126
369
531
520
44
69
70
.336
.347
.208
.307
2.04
3.73
-5.97
-0.69
103
56
794
258
2011 10.6
2012 10.7
2013
2014 13.5
7.6
8.3
9.2
1.95
1.99
1.11
8
5
6
28
49
38
18.2 10.1%
18.8 4.4%
21.1 4.1%
9
12
14
.231
.264
.270
.277
.258
.270
.240
.289
.299
-3.61
-1.19
-1.49
493
278
287
Chris Owings | ARI | Age: 22 | Rk: 26 (275)
Yunel Escobar | TB | Age: 31 | Rk: 29 (334)
Position: SS
Position: SS
Owings still needs to wrestle Arizona’s starting job from
Didi Gregorius, but I think he succeeds. Gregorius isn’t a
very good hitter and Owings is the real deal. He batted .330
at AAA last year, scoring 104 R with 12 HR, 20 SB, and 81
RBI, and even a fraction of that would make him one of the
game’s best SS. We hear about prospects like Javier Baez all
the time, but Owings is presenting us with a great “buy before the hype” opportunity if you’re smart enough to pounce.
Essentially, Escobar is Jhonny Peralta with a little less power and no (known) PED history. He’s a career .278 hitter who’s fallen into the .250s in each of the last 2 seasons, but he’ll combine for 110-120 R and RBI. That’s not
a very good total, but your remaining options are guys
like Jose Iglesias, Ruben Tejada, and Logan Forsythe.
Players with similar stat lines: Grant Green; Howie Kendrick;
Dustin Ackley
2011
2012
2013
2014
Players with similar stat lines: Gordon Beckham; Juan Uribe;
Andy Dirks
20
125
61
475
5
58
0
10
5
46
2
12
.291
.270
.272
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
133
145
153
153
590
608
578
580
77
58
61
59
11
9
9
9
48
51
56
57
3
5
4
2
.290
.253
.256
.260
.296
.285
.272
.280
2011
2012
2013 16.4
2014 16.0
9.8
5.3
1.62
0.62
24.4
21.0
0.0%
5.7%
.356
.307
-6.69
-1.24
935
275
2011
2012
2013
2014
11.9
11.5
12.6
12.2
10.3
5.8
9.9
9.0
2.32
2.25
1.97
2.80
18.2
18.7
19.5
17.9
10.0%
7.4%
7.6%
9.4%
.316
.273
.281
.278
0.22
-2.33
-1.27
-2.55
188
366
285
334
Jordy Mercer | PIT | Age: 27 | Rk: 27 (285)
Position: 2B/SS
Position: 2B/3B/SS
Mercer took over Pittsburgh’s starting shortstop job late
last season, but he’ll still have 2B eligibility in almost all
formats after starting 20 games there in 2013. At 6’3,
205 lbs, Mercer has a pretty large frame that could fill
out over the next few years, so a 15-20 HR season isn’t
entirely out of the question. If he can drop his strikeout rate to 14-15%, he’ll look much more attractive, but
I fully endorse Mercer as a “Name to Know” for 2014.
Players with similar stat lines: Derek Jeter; Marco Scutaro;
Daniel Nava
2011
2012
2013
2014
Brandon Crawford
42
103
137
68
365
576
7
33
68
1
8
10
5
27
37
0
3
2
.210
.285
.280
.231
.300
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
91
136
124
127
309
546
394
404
31
57
54
50
7
13
9
11
39
60
46
47
14
14
8
2
.255
.250
.252
.250
.236
.250
.247
.250
2011
2012 20.6
2013 17.0
2014 15.6
5.9
6.0
7.1
1.53
1.54
0.99
22.4
22.8
23.1
6.7%
9.9%
6.2%
.250
.330
.321
-7.42
-3.12
-1.45
1140
435
285
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.2
14.1
10.4
14.1
4.2
4.2
3.8
4.7
0.98
1.04
1.17
1.37
15.7
19.3
19.8
15.7
6.8%
7.5%
7.4%
9.8%
.276
.269
.257
.267
-2.73
-0.83
-1.63
-3.34
395
254
302
377
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Pedro Florimon | MIN | Age: 27 | Rk: 31 (396)
Maicer Izturis | TOR | Age: 33 | Rk: 34 (449)
Position: SS
Position: 2B/3B/SS
As far as SS with career .601 OPSs go, Florimon is great. Last
year he actually combined for 24 HR and SB, but his .221 average
prevented that category juice from ranking higher than 26th.
The HR and SB are legit, but so is the BA, and not in a good way.
Players with similar stat lines: Adeiny Hechavarria; Nate McLouth;
Jemile Weeks
2011
2012
2013
2014
Izturis stole 17 bases in 2012, and a repeat of that performance is his best path back to fantasy relevance. He always seems to get nearly 400 PA through his various eligibilities, and he actually managed to rank 25th among
SS in 2011 when he racked up a career-best 494 PA.
Players with similar stat lines: Didi Gregorius; Skip Schumaker;
Eric Sogard
4
43
134
107
10
150
446
405
1
16
44
47
0
1
9
7
2
10
44
40
0
3
15
16
0.125
0.219
0.221
0.23
0.243
0.251
0.249
0.23
2011
2012
2013
2014
122
100
107
98
494
319
399
372
51
35
33
39
5
2
5
4
38
20
32
34
9
17
1
10
.276
.256
.236
.250
.270
.249
.304
.280
2011 60
2012 20
2013 25.8
2014 24.2
10
6.7
7.4
7.2
1
2.65
1.55
3.56
50
20
23.2
17.7
0
0.043
0.108
0.147
0.5
0.274
0.284
0.294
-7.3
-6.75
-2.47
-3.71
1207
1068
370
396
2011 13.2
2012 11.9
2013 9.5
2014 11.3
6.7
7.8
6.8
7.3
1.03
1.59
2.04
0.92
23.0
22.9
22.5
20.3
3.4%
2.7%
6.0%
3.2%
.311
.289
.249
.274
-1.96
-3.82
-4.73
-4.50
326
504
616
449
Jose Iglesias | DET | Age: 24 | Rk: 32 (405)
Ruben Tejada | NYM | Age: 24 | Rk: 35 (457)
Position: 3B/SS
Position: SS
A Gold Glove-caliber SS who retains 3B eligibility from his
time with the Red Sox, Iglesias won’t come anywhere near
his .303 BA last season. Our line doesn’t give him much credit for his power or speed -- he could steal 5-10 bases -- but
Iglesias is as bad with the bat as he’s great with the glove.
We’re well into the guys who can’t hit but have starting jobs,
so it’s impossible not to rank them. Tejada didn’t even homer last year, so you could argue our projected 3 long balls
-- which would be a new career high! -- is overly optimistic. On the plus side, Tejada batted .289 across 501 PA
in 2012, which was good enough for 31st among all SS.
Players with similar stat lines: Adeiny Hechavarria; Pedro Florimon;
Drew Stubbs
Players with similar stat lines: Darwin Barney; Juan Lagares;
Craig Gentry
2011
2012
2013
2014
10
25
109
152
6
77
382
572
3
5
39
66
0
1
3
5
0
2
29
40
0
1
5
9
.333
.118
.303
.240
.338
.166
.240
.240
2011
2012
2013
2014
96
114
57
138
376
501
227
524
31
53
20
50
0
1
0
3
36
25
10
38
5
4
2
2
.284
.289
.202
.250
.284
.318
.257
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
33.3
20.8
15.7
13.5
0.0
5.2
3.9
5.2
3.00
2.31
2.21
1.55
25.0
15.7
18.0
21.9
0.0%
7.7%
4.2%
3.7%
.500
.137
.356
.267
-7.17
-2.60
-3.81
1177
385
405
2011
2012
2013
2014
13.3
14.6
10.6
11.8
9.3
5.4
6.6
6.9
1.51
1.31
1.37
1.05
25.7
30.0
19.2
19.8
0.0%
0.8%
0.0%
1.8%
.331
.339
.228
.284
-3.61
-3.17
-6.87
-4.64
492
434
999
457
Brandon Crawford | SF | Age: 27 | Rk: 33 (429)
Adeiny Hechavarria | MIA | Age: 25 | Rk: 36 (462)
Position: SS
Position: SS
Crawford has never had much of a stick, but he did jump up
to 31st among SS last year thanks to a moderately surprising 9
HR. Expecting more than what Crawford did last year is unreasonable, but if you’re surveying SS in the 30s you’re either in
a very deep league or looking for (very) unlikely production.
Even in the minors, Hechavarria struggled to bat .250, so
there’s little chance he improves now that he’s an MLB regular. Worth -1.9 WAR last year, he actually cost the Marlins 2 wins compared to a typical replacement player, and replacement players are assumed to be terrible!
Players with similar stat lines: Darwin Barney; Josh Phegley;
Hank Conger
Players with similar stat lines: Pedro Florimon; Jose Iglesias;
Hank Conger
2011
2012
2013
2014
66
143
149
145
220
476
550
550
22
44
52
48
3
4
9
8
21
45
43
42
1
1
1
2
.204
.248
.248
.250
.222
.240
.243
.240
2011
2012
2013
2014
41
148
141
137
578
536
10
30
44
2
3
5
15
42
43
0
11
8
.254
.227
.240
.251
.242
.240
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.1
20.0
17.5
18.5
10.5
6.9
7.6
8.5
1.47
1.57
1.55
0.83
14.0
22.7
18.9
19.1
5.3%
3.9%
7.0%
4.7%
.228
.307
.290
.294
-6.13
-4.11
-2.81
-4.18
869
533
401
429
2011
2012 23.4
2013 16.6
2014 16.4
2.9
5.2
5.6
1.55
1.86
1.45
21.3
20.4
22.4
6.9%
2.4%
3.9%
.323
.270
.277
-6.65
-4.37
-4.74
1057
567
462
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Eric Sogard | OAK | Age: 28 | Rk: 37 (474)
Joaquin Arias | SF | Age: 29 | Rk: 40 (564)
Position: 2B/SS
Position: 2B/3B/SS
Sogard made the most of his skills last year, pushing
him to 29th among SS, but that’s pretty much his ceiling…or is it? At A+ ball in 2008, Sogard cobbled together this incredible line: 622 PA, 97 R, 10 HR, 87
RBI, 16 SB, .308 BA. Dorky-looking utility infielder or
All-Star in disguise? Dorky-looking utility infielder.
When you’re Brandon Crawford’s backup, you know you’re
not very good. Arias comes in at the very bottom of our
2014 SS rankings because he could combine for double-digit HR and SB while batting .270 across 250-350 PA. At a position not known for its offensive prowess, I somehow had
something potentially intelligent to say about 40 of the lightest-hitting, feeble-batted slappers (they’re not even sluggers)
that Major League Baseball has to offer. You’re welcome.
Players with similar stat lines: Franklin Gutierrez; Matt Diaz;
Daric Barton
Players with similar stat lines: Kevin Frandsen; Moises Sierra;
Conor Gillaspie
2011
2012
2013
2014
27
37
130
76
74
108
410
287
7
8
45
31
2
2
2
4
4
7
35
27
0
2
10
9
.200
.167
.266
.260
.222
.274
.270
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
112
102
67
344
236
255
30
17
24
5
1
3
34
19
25
5
1
2
.270
.271
.260
.275
.276
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.6
15.7
12.4
12.2
5.4
4.6
6.6
7.7
0.83
1.11
0.89
1.60
18.5
26.3
24.8
22.8
8.3%
7.1%
1.6%
6.1%
.218
.181
.301
.283
-7.02
-7.46
-2.66
-4.96
1147
1147
391
474
2011
2012 12.8
2013 14.0
2014 13.7
3.8
1.7
3.9
1.48
1.85
1.07
21.9
20.6
18.6
5.7%
1.9%
3.8%
.295
.311
.291
-4.04
-5.55
-6.18
527
715
564
Logan Forsythe | TB | Age: 27 | Rk: 38 (485)
Position: 2B/3B/SS/OF
The Rays newest Swiss Army knife (but a cheaply made
one), Forsythe will play almost everywhere. He had rare
4-position eligibility and could threaten double-digit HR if given enough PA, but the Rays are pretty set
at every starting spot so it’ll take 1 or more injuries or
Forsythe to find anything more than half-time play.
Players with similar stat lines: Tim Federowicz; Cameron Maybin;
Adrian Nieto
2011
2012
2013
2014
62
91
75
97
169
350
243
368
12
45
22
34
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.5
16.3
22.2
19.8
7.1
8.0
7.8
7.6
1.16
1.04
1.46
1.00
0
6
6
6
12
26
19
36
20.2 0.0%
28.7 6.7%
28.5 12.5%
19.8 5.9%
3
8
6
2
.213
.273
.214
.250
.240
.328
.293
.260
.269
.316
.255
.300
-6.68
-3.24
-5.24
-5.12
1079
437
678
485
Didi Gregorius | ARI | Age: 24 | Rk: 39 (490)
Position: SS
Gregorius could still move up the rankings if he beats out
Chris Owings in spring training, but he’d probably only rise
as far as 38.5. The all glove, no bat infielder took the Jose Iglesias route to passable numbers -- get really, really hot at
the beginning so no one realizes how terrible you really are.
Players with similar stat lines: Logan Schafer; Adrian Nieto;
Derek Norris
2011
2012
2013
2014
8
103
79
21
404
300
1
47
38
0
7
5
2
28
36
0
0
3
.300
.252
.240
.184
.237
.240
2011
2012 23.8
2013 16.1
2014 18.3
0.0
9.2
6.7
3.33
0.89
0.90
13.3
21.0
16.7
0.0%
5.7%
5.2%
.400
.290
.286
-7.59
-3.71
-5.19
1172
491
490
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2013: Outfield Year in Review
We rated some of last year’s best Outfielders on both consistency and statistical balance based on their 2013 performance (small sample size
Better
in H2H
More
consistency
Great
Player
Jay Bruce
Adam Jones
Alejandro De Aza
Alex Rios Jayson Werth
Brett Gardner
Carlos Gomez
Shane Victorino
Andrew
Justin Upton
McCutchen
Matt Holliday
Mark Trumbo
Will Venable
Hunter Pence
Alfonso Soriano
Carlos Beltran
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jose Bautista
Alex Gordon
Less
balance
Mike Trout
More
balance
Allen Craig
Marlon Byrd
Domonic Brown
Michael Brantley
Torii Hunter
Michael Cuddyer
Shin-Soo Choo
Coco Crisp
Carlos Gonzalez
Bad
Player
Less Starling Marte
consistency
Better
in Roto
Facebook
30.0%
25.0%
HR/FB
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
240
250
260
270
280
290
Average FB Distance
300
310
320
Facebook
.360
Unlucky
.340
.320
.300
.280
.260
.240
.220
Lucky
.200
.200
.220
.240
.260
.280
.300
.320
.340
.360
Batting Average
A Closer Look...Outfield Superlatives
Superlative
Biggest Risk
Safest Bet
Mid-Round Sleeper
Late-Round Sleeper
Post-Hype Sleeper
Best Value Pick
Round I'll Draft OF
Matt Commins
Matt Kemp
Adam Jones
Jayson Werth
Alejandro De Aza
Desmond Jennings
Dexter Fowler
Jayson Heyward
Alex Gordon
Jacoby Ellsbury
1st
Norichika Aoki
Alex Gordon
Billy Hamilton
George Springer
Eric Broutman
Carlos Gonzalez
Shin-Soo Choo
Brandon Moss
Avisail Garcia
Yasiel Puig
Jason Heyward
Alex Gordon
Shin Soo Choo
Matt Kemp
Anywhere
Angel Pagan
Alex Rios
Brandon Moss
Giancarlo Stanton
Paul Beck
Matt Kemp
Mike Trout
Jayson Werth
George Springer
Bryce Harper
Carl Crawford
Hunter Pence
Alex Gordon
Justin Upton
1st-2nd
Nick Markakis
Giancarlo Stanton
Billy Hamilton
George Springer
Adam Nodiff
Jacoby Ellsbury
Mike Trout
Curtis Granderson
Colby Rasmus
Christian Yelich
Adam Eaton
Starling Marte
Shin-Soo Choo
Jason Heyward
5th-10th
Jose Bautista
Carlos Gomez
Matt Holliday
Mike Trout
Jake Devereaux
Josh Hamilton
Mike Trout
Billy Hamilton
Avisail Garcia
Dominic Brown
Josh Reddick
Shane Victorino
Alex Gordon
Matt Kemp
5th
Yoenis Cespedes
Yasiel Puig
Matt Holliday
Bryce Harper
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Outfield 2014 Preview
Rk
Prospect
Team
Age
1 Byron Buxton
MIN
20
2 Oscar Taveras
STL
22
I feel like I have been hearing about this guy forever but he will likely finally be up with
Mid 2014 the Cardinals in the second half of 2014. Taveras is one of the safest bets on this list to
be an all-star and could hit .300 and 30HR for many years in a row during his prime.
22
Polanco has been on a war path since the beginning of last season and has seen his
prospect star rise through the roof. He also dominated winter ball over the last few
Mid 2014
months and is a true threat to develop into a 30HR-30SB outfielder. He could see time
in RF for the Pirates as soon as June.
23
Any guy who can win you a fantasy category by himself deserves a very high ranking.
Early 2014 Hamilton’s stolen base floor could still be league best in that category and his ceiling
could be a 100R/100SB combo. He is worth all of the risk associated with his poor OBP.
High K rates may scare a lot of folks away from Springer who nearly went 40/40 last
Mid 2014 year in the minors. If he can develop some plate discipline at the MLB level springer
could become a top 20 outfielder capable of 25/25 seasons.
3 Gregory Polanco
4 Billy Hamilton
PIT
CIN
5 George Springer
HOU
24
6 Clint Frazier
CLE
19
ETA
Comments
Mike Trout 2.0 is a strong possibility for the only guy on any list who is a true 70 grade
Late 2014
player. There isn’t anything that Buxton can’t do. Please plan accordingly.
2017
7 David Dahl
COL
20
2016
8 Jorge Soler
CHC
22
2015
9 Raimel Tapia
COL
20
2017
10 Joc Pederson
LAD
22
One of the youngest guys on this list Frazier has insane bat speed and a quickness on
the base paths. Playing in CF right now Frazier could develop in to Mike Trout light with
less speed and slightly worst average. His small frame certainly doesn’t lack strength.
Like Singleton, Dahl had a season that he would just as soon like to forget in 2013. One
of the few guys in the minors with the talent to contribute in all 5 categories Dahl is
closer to the player who slashed .379/.423/.625 in 2012 than the prima donna with
character issues.
2013 should have been a big year for Soler but it was cut short by his broken leg and his
suspension for trying to his someone with a bat. He has a ton of talent but he is at risk
for not putting it all together. Soler still possesses the prototypical RF profile with great
arm and 25+HR power.
The 20 year old Dominican stud saw his stock rise in a big way last year as he slashed
.357/399/.562 at Grand Junction as a 19 year old. Scouts rave about his pure hitting
ability. He has the potential to develop into a stud corner outfielder for the Rockies.
Pederson doesn’t have a ton of projection left but what he is now is pretty good.
Late 2014 Though weak against lefties Pederson projects as a .260 hitter with 20/20 potential. I
will take that any day.
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Player Name
Mike Trout
Ryan Braun
Andrew McCutchen
Carlos Gonzalez
Adam Jones
Jacoby Ellsbury
Shin-Soo Choo
Carlos Gomez
Yasiel Puig
Alex Rios
Jay Bruce
Bryce Harper
Carlos Beltran
Matt Holliday
Jayson Werth
Allen Craig
Yoenis Cespedes
Hunter Pence
Giancarlo Stanton
Justin Upton
$ Value
$45
$35
$35
$32
$33
$30
$24
$23
$22
$22
$22
$18
$18
$18
$17
$16
$16
$16
$15
$15
Rank
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Player Name
Billy Hamilton
Matt Kemp
Desmond Jennings
Wil Myers
Jose Bautista
Alex Gordon
Jason Heyward
Mark Trumbo
Starling Marte
Curtis Granderson
Michael Brantley
Josh Hamilton
Brett Gardner
Michael Cuddyer
Adam Eaton
Shane Victorino
Dexter Fowler
Josh Willingham
Leonys Martin
Martin Prado
$ Value
$14
$13
$13
$13
$13
$12
$12
$11
$11
$10
$10
$10
$9
$8
$8
$8
$8
$8
$8
$8
Rank
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Player Name
Kole Calhoun
Torii Hunter
Nick Markakis
Austin Jackson
Christian Yelich
Khris Davis
Alfonso Soriano
Marlon Byrd
Avisail Garcia
Michael Bourn
Angel Pagan
Carl Crawford
Denard Span
Norichika Aoki
Domonic Brown
Alejandro De Aza
Oswaldo Arcia
Melky Cabrera
Coco Crisp
Nick Swisher
$ Value
$7
$7
$7
$7
$7
$7
$7
$6
$6
$5
$4
$4
$3
$3
$3
$3
$3
$3
$3
$3
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Mike Trout | LAA | Age: 22 | Rk: 1 (1)
Carlos Gonzalez | COL | Age: 28 | Rk: 4 (8)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Trout finished 2nd in our 2013 end-of-season rankings, but it’s
back to number! He’s a 5-category contributor (or more if you’re in
a non-standard league), and the guy has virtually zero weaknesses. As he bulks up there’s a chance he loses his elite speed and becomes a 35 HR, 25-30 SB guy, but right now he’s firing on all cylinders in search of his first career MVP season. How many guys
with 2 10+ WAR seasons can say they haven’t won an MVP? In
truth, we shouldn’t be debating Trout v. Miguel Cabrera. Enjoy both!
We keep drafting Gonzalez as a 1st-round player in fantasy, yet
he’s barely ranked in the top 10 among OF in recent seasons
(and 17th last year). That’s a little deceptive, though. Gonzalez
compiles those numbers in about 130-140 games, leaving you
20-30 games worth of free agent OF that can still accrue stats,
bumping your CarGo+Field slot to 1st-round production. His
per-game talent is undeniable. As long as you draft him knowing you need to target a legitimate bench OF, then you’re A-OK.
Players with similar stat lines: Andrew McCutchen; Ryan Braun;
Joey Votto
2011
2012
2013
2014
40
139
157
160
135
639
716
729
20
129
109
120
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.2
21.8
19.0
17.8
6.7
10.5
15.4
15.4
0.97
1.35
1.16
1.17
5
30
27
33
16
83
97
94
20.7 13.5%
22.6 21.6%
23.0 16.5%
22.7 21.1%
Players with similar stat lines: David Wright; Ryan Braun;
Hanley Ramirez
4
49
33
34
.220
.326
.323
.330
.270
.320
.327
.320
2011
2012
2013
2014
127
135
110
132
542
579
436
574
92
89
72
85
.247
.383
.376
.354
-5.43
11.38
10.71
12.88
741
1
2
1
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.4
19.9
27.1
22.3
8.9
9.7
9.4
8.9
1.44
1.66
0.94
1.27
26
22
26
27
92
85
70
88
18.0 20.8%
21.7 18.8%
21.6 23.9%
20.7 21.9%
20
20
21
24
.295
.303
.302
.300
.273
.284
.265
.280
.326
.352
.368
.342
5.72
5.06
4.84
6.89
27
28
37
8
Ryan Braun | MIL | Age: 30 | Rk: 2 (3)
Adam Jones | BAL | Age: 28 | Rk: 5 (9)
Position: OF
Position: OF
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve had people ask me, “Do you
think Braun is a good pick in the late 1st or early 2nd?” By our rank
(3rd overall), clearly we think he is. I understand the PED concerns, but let’s be real here, folks. Even if we assume Braun has always been on the stuff, he used to be a .315/30/30 or even .330/40/30
guy with about 220+ R and RBI combined. That’s not entirely PEDs. I’ll concede Andrew McCutchen over Braun if you want
a safer pick, but how could you take Carlos Gonzalez over Braun?
Players with similar stat lines: Carlos Gonzalez; Andrew McCutchen;
Freddie Freeman
2011
2012
2013
2014
150
154
61
152
629
677
253
661
109
108
30
95
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.8
18.9
22.1
18.5
9.2
9.3
10.7
10.6
1.11
1.14
1.60
1.31
33
41
9
27
111
112
38
100
20.9 18.8%
18.4 22.8%
15.9 16.4%
18.7 17.9%
Jones spits in the face of everyone, like myself, that thinks you
need to have good plate discipline and patience to be a consistently great hitter. For the past 2 years, Jones has been a .285 hitter with 30+ HR and 100 R and great RBI production despite
some pretty low 3.5-4.5% walk rates. The HR power and RBI production are new additions in the last 2 years, but Jones has always
been a .285 hitter despite those less-than-exciting walk rates. In his
case, it’s time to trust the production rather than the peripherals.
Players with similar stat lines: Bryce Harper; Edwin Encarnacion;
Carlos Beltran
33
30
4
28
.332
.319
.298
.300
.333
.306
.265
.310
2011
2012
2013
2014
151
162
160
158
618
697
689
687
68
103
100
98
.350
.346
.360
.332
10.86
10.90
-2.55
8.69
4
2
379
3
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.3
18.1
19.7
17.9
4.7
4.9
3.6
4.5
1.50
1.41
1.51
1.47
25
32
33
31
83
82
108
94
17.6 16.7%
21.5 18.8%
19.7 19.9%
19.8 19.5%
12
16
14
13
.280
.287
.285
.280
.274
.316
.301
.300
.304
.313
.314
.305
3.04
5.79
7.69
6.55
72
19
8
9
Andrew McCutchen | PIT | Age: 27 | Rk: 3 (4)
Jacoby Ellsbury | NYY | Age: 30 | Rk: 6 (10)
Position: OF
Position: OF
I didn’t think McCutchen had this kind of fantasy potential,
not when I shipped him out for Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and
Josh Willingham for a 2011 playoff push. I don’t necessarily regret the trade (it worked as intended and Lee is still elite), but
man, would I love to have Cutch. He’s been a top 3 OF for the
past 2 years, and the pecking order atop the position is pretty
well solidified at this point: Mike Trout towers above all, then
Ryan Braun and McCutchen in either order, and then the rest.
Ellsbury is maddening to project because there are so many unknowns. Will he stay healthy? Will Yankee Stadium inflate his HR
total? Probably, but by how much? Overlaying his 2013 batted balls
at Fenway onto Yankee Stadium, we see that Ellsbury would have hit
5 extra HR last year. We assumed pretty good health (640 PA from
a leadoff hitter for a good offense assumes some missed games) and
tacked those 5 HR onto his total. I don’t feel comfortable with Tacoby as borderline 1st-round pick, but it’s where he ranked last year.
Players with similar stat lines: Carlos Gonzalez; Joey Votto;
Ryan Braun
2011
2012
2013
2014
158
157
157
158
678
673
674
704
87
107
97
91
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.6
19.6
15.0
14.8
13.1
10.4
11.6
9.8
0.92
1.28
1.17
1.14
23
31
21
25
89
96
84
91
20.0 12.2%
21.9 19.4%
24.5 12.4%
22.5 14.1%
Players with similar stat lines: Jose Reyes; Jose Altuve;
Jean Segura
23
20
27
23
.259
.327
.317
.320
.279
.303
.309
.300
2011
2012
2013
2014
158
74
134
140
732
323
636
640
119
43
92
94
32
4
9
14
105
26
53
53
39
14
52
50
.321
.271
.298
.290
.326
.263
.264
.290
.291
.375
.353
.341
3.94
8.54
7.91
8.50
51
5
7
4
2011
2012
2013
2014
13.4
13.3
14.5
13.9
7.1
5.9
7.4
7.5
1.26
1.42
1.80
1.52
22.9
20.3
21.0
21.5
16.7%
4.7%
6.6%
9.3%
.336
.304
.341
.318
11.39
-3.00
6.47
6.13
3
421
14
10
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Shin-Soo Choo | TEX | Age: 31 | Rk: 7 (17)
Alex Rios | TEX | Age: 33 | Rk: 10 (25)
Position: OF
Position: OF
After ranking 27th among OF in 2012 and 16th last year, we’re
bumping Choo up to 7th for 2014. He’s a .285/20/20 guy, and
he’s proven that time and time again, but I think he gets that
RBI total back up now that he’s out of the NL (with the pitcher batting in front of him) and leading off for a fairly deep offense. The “experts” at FantasyPros have Choo as the 14th-best
OF with only 1 of their 20+ rankers putting Choo as high as us,
and I think that somehow makes him a great value on draft day.
Once Rios joined the Rangers, he hit the ground running -- literally.
In just 47 games with Texas, Rios stole 16 bases, a rate of 53 SB per
156 games (the amount he actually played). I think people are scared
of Rios because he’s not consistent in a conventional way. When you
draft him, you don’t know if you’re going to get 25 HR and 23 SB
(2012) or 18 HR and 42 SB (2013), but you do know that you’re going
to get valuable production. The fact that about 25% of the “experts”
on FantasyPros have Rios ranked outside the top 20 OF is ridiculous.
Players with similar stat lines: Aaron Hill; Yasiel Puig;
Daniel Murphy
2011
2012
2013
2014
85
155
154
155
358
686
712
723
37
88
107
100
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.8
21.9
18.7
19.4
10.1
10.6
15.7
13.4
1.39
1.83
1.68
1.65
8
16
21
22
36
67
54
69
22.4 10.4%
23.3 13.2%
21.1 16.4%
22.1 17.0%
Players with similar stat lines: Jason Kipnis; Hanley Ramirez;
Ian Desmond
12
21
20
21
.259
.283
.285
.290
.270
.272
.290
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
145
157
156
154
570
640
662
654
64
93
83
83
.317
.353
.338
.328
-2.61
3.15
5.03
5.53
384
79
34
17
2011
2012
2013
2014
11.9
14.4
16.3
14.7
4.7
4.1
6.2
6.1
1.08
1.05
1.25
0.86
13
25
18
18
44
91
81
88
18.4 7.0%
21.8 12.6%
21.4 10.1%
19.1 8.4%
11
23
42
27
.227
.304
.278
.280
.244
.293
.275
.270
.237
.323
.311
.295
-2.10
6.26
6.41
5.06
341
16
16
25
Carlos Gomez | MIL | Age: 28 | Rk: 8 (22)
Jay Bruce | CIN | Age: 27 | Rk: 11 (26)
Position: OF
Position: OF
A legitimate borderline 1st round pick, Gomez is for real. He
ranked 6th among all OF last year, and his drop to 8th is more because of Shin-Soo Choo going to Texas and Ryan Braun returning
than anything else. With plenty of counting category juice (HR,
SB) and his biggest weakness in BA, Gomez is an ideal player for
H2H formats. Still, a player with this much talent plays well in any
league. I wish Gomez batted a little higher in Milwaukee’s lineup,
but as their 6th hitter it’ll be tough to rack up many more R or RBI.
Players with similar stat lines: Starling Marte; Jason Kipnis;
Hanley Ramirez
2011
2012
2013
2014
94
137
147
152
258
452
590
629
37
72
80
83
2011
2012
2013
2014
24.8
21.7
24.7
22.1
5.8
4.4
6.3
7.6
1.01
0.93
1.05
0.99
8
19
24
25
24
51
73
78
11.9 11.4%
16.6 14.3%
21.3 16.4%
18.4 14.9%
I find it funny that people constantly use the “Power’s at a premium...”
line these days, but no one follows that up with “…so I’m going to
target Bruce.” What more for the guy have to do? He’s ranked 21st,
15th, and 15th among OF in the last 3 years, consistently putting up
30 HR, 90 R, 100 RBI production with a handful of SB tossed in. He’s
definitely no more than a .260 hitter without some luck, but Bruce
has 40 HR power. I’ll admit that Bruce’s 2013 was a little underwhelming if you remove May and June, but he’s 30/100 in the bank.
Players with similar stat lines: Chris Davis; Edwin Encarnacion;
Jose Bautista
16
37
40
37
.225
.260
.284
.260
.181
.234
.267
.240
2011
2012
2013
2014
157
155
160
158
664
633
697
671
84
89
89
88
.273
.296
.344
.298
-3.28
2.62
6.61
5.18
453
93
13
22
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.8
24.5
26.5
25.6
10.7
9.8
9.0
10.1
0.78
0.80
0.93
0.84
32
34
30
36
97
99
109
98
16.8 16.0%
20.2 18.7%
23.9 17.1%
21.0 22.1%
8
9
7
7
.256
.252
.262
.270
.239
.260
.273
.260
.297
.283
.322
.299
3.59
3.83
5.08
5.04
60
51
33
26
Yasiel Puig | LAD | Age: 23 | Rk: 9 (24)
Bryce Harper | WAS | Age: 21 | Rk: 12 (28)
Position: OF
Position: OF
You know the deal with Puig’s 2013 season: His historic start was
so ridiculously good that all anyone would ever do was talk about
his .400 BABIP, and because there clearly was a great deal of luck
involved, we couldn’t tell whether Puig was just really good or truly elite. Because we believe in his walk and strikeout rates, we have
Puig for a .285 season once the BABIP corrects itself, but what remains to be seen is whether Puig can hit 25+ HR. His 21.8% HR/
FB rate indicates great strength, but his GB% was over 50.0
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Kemp; Bryce Harper;
Hanley Ramirez
2011
2012
2013
2014
104
146
432
625
66
91
2011
2012
2013 22.5
2014 22.7
8.3
10.4
1.63
1.64
19
27
42
73
19.1 21.8%
19.1 24.0%
We bought into the Harper hype last year, putting the Nats’ phenom in our top 20 overall. We backed off a little this year with definite injury concerns creeping into our minds, but the promise (and
mostly the power) he showed in 2012 is going to appear much
sooner than later. Despite playing just 118 games last year and falling in the ranks due to depressed counting stats, Harper lowered
his K% and increased his BB%, FB%, and HR/FB rate. Will he go
off for 25-35 SB? Probably not, but you’ll want him for his power.
Players with similar stat lines: Jayson Werth; Yoenis Cespedes;
Hunter Pence
11
18
.319
.280
.292
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
139
118
147
597
497
655
98
71
86
.383
.324
2.13
5.07
111
24
2011
2012 20.1
2013 18.9
2014 18.6
9.4
12.3
12.2
1.35
1.40
1.27
22
20
26
59
58
89
22.5 16.2%
19.9 18.0%
19.0 17.6%
18
11
13
.270
.274
.280
.291
.278
.280
.310
.306
.310
2.98
1.84
4.97
82
126
28
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Carlos Beltran | NYY | Age: 37 | Rk: 13 (32)
Allen Craig | STL | Age: 29 | Rk: 16 (44)
Position: OF
Position: 1B/OF
Once our top 200 countdown reached the top 50, one of our
Twitter followers asked us if we’d done Beltran yet. Clearly he’d searched the site and found it confusing (intriguing?) that Beltran wasn’t ranked 50-200. Beltran has finished
22nd, 11th, and 20th among OF in the last 3 years, and we
put him right back there again. He’s not a good defender anymore, but he’s has averaged 26.7 HR per 150 games in the last
3 years, and (should he stay healthy), he’ll top that in NY.
For his career, Craig has batted .283 with the bases empty (738
PA) and .251 with men on first base (255 PA), but he’s batted .394
with RISP (407 PA). That .394 average is far and away the best in
the league among the 178 players with at least 400 such PA over
that span. Miguel Cabrera is number 2 at .366, nearly 30 points
back. However, Craig hit just 13 HR thanks to his fly ball rate dipping under 30%. It’s likely that Craig regresses towards the mean in
both these areas and we see a player with a bit more power in 2014.
Players with similar stat lines: David Ortiz; Albert Pujols;
Troy Tulowitzki
2011
2012
2013
2014
142
151
145
142
598
619
600
633
78
83
79
82
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.7
20.0
15.0
15.0
11.9
10.5
6.3
11.4
1.01
1.11
0.86
0.97
22
32
24
30
84
97
84
91
21.1 12.9%
20.4 19.9%
23.9 12.5%
22.0 17.6%
Players with similar stat lines: Buster Posey; Robinson Cano;
Adrian Gonzalez
4
13
2
5
.300
.269
.296
.290
.283
.281
.294
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
75
119
134
144
219
514
563
600
33
76
71
77
.324
.291
.314
.293
3.29
4.36
3.82
4.79
64
40
52
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.3
17.3
17.8
17.5
6.8
7.2
7.1
7.0
1.18
1.32
1.60
1.39
11
22
13
23
40
92
97
87
19.1 18.3%
22.7 17.1%
26.9 11.2%
24.4 17.1%
5
2
2
2
.315
.307
.315
.310
.288
.301
.313
.300
.344
.334
.368
.337
-2.03
3.02
3.39
4.22
334
81
64
44
Matt Holliday | STL | Age: 34 | Rk: 14 (33)
Yoenis Cespedes | OAK | Age: 28 | Rk: 17 (45)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Holliday is unbelievably boring, but he’s absolute money in the bank. Like his former teammate, Carlos Beltran,
Holliday’s defense has eroded later in his career, but he’s
still a force in the middle of an MLB lineup. He’s accrued
600+ PA in 7 of the last 8 years (516 PA in the other) and
is always between 22-28 HR. He’s pretty much a guaranteed
.290/22/100 (with a little wiggle room, see our projection)
and that sits him squarely in the 10-15 range among OF.
Talk about a polarizing player. Cespedes flopped in year 2, maintaining the HR power from his rookie season but stealing only 7 bases
and batting a paltry .240. His K% got worse, his BB% went down, and
once again he was the king of infield flies (correction: Justin Upton was
king last year). Can he get the BA back up and put everything together for a potential top 10 season or are we destined for another top 40
season? Oakland’s offense is good and Cespedes will tally 80+ R/RBI
with 25+ HR power, but his BA and SB ultimately will drive his value.
Players with similar stat lines: Freddie Freeman; Robinson Cano;
Adrian Gonzalez
2011
2012
2013
2014
124
157
141
146
516
688
602
630
83
95
103
89
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.0
19.2
14.3
15.4
11.6
10.9
11.5
11.6
1.37
1.32
1.36
1.14
22
27
22
23
75
102
94
94
20.6 18.5%
18.9 16.4%
20.8 15.0%
22.8 15.1%
2
4
6
3
.296
.295
.300
.300
.279
.277
.280
.280
.330
.337
.322
.316
2.63
4.91
5.67
4.78
79
32
25
33
Players with similar stat lines: Hunter Pence; Bryce Harper;
Wil Myers
2011
2012
2013
2014
129
135
143
540
574
609
70
74
80
2011
2012 18.9
2013 23.9
2014 21.3
8.0
6.4
7.4
1.01
0.83
0.91
23
26
27
82
80
89
19.6 14.8%
16.7 14.4%
17.9 15.8%
16
7
13
.292
.240
.270
.264
.239
.250
.326
.274
.306
3.33
1.88
4.19
65
123
45
Jayson Werth | WAS | Age: 35 | Rk: 15 (39)
Hunter Pence | SF | Age: 31 | Rk: 18 (46)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Werth’s 2013 season is entirely repeatable. OK, so I don’t think
his BA or his per-game production will be quite that good
again, but it looks like he’s over his 2012 wrist injury and back
to being a fantasy contributor. It’s easy to forget how great
Werth used to be because he disappointed with a .232 BA in his
1st season with the Nats and missed half of 2012, but he’s good
for 25 HR and 10-15 SB with solid numbers everywhere else.
Pence brings the HR and RBI production every single season -- 22+
HR, 91+ RBI in 4 straight years -- but his SB and BA vary wildly.
It’s that variation that’s caused his end-of-season ranks to fluctuate from 12th among OF in 2011 to 38th in 2012 to 5th last year,
but the good news is that Pence’s most stable categories are the
ones that are most important in fantasy: the power cats. You don’t
get excited about drafting Pence (Jason Heyward or Justin Upton have more excitement/upside) but Pence won’t let you down.
Players with similar stat lines: Bryce Harper; Hanley Ramirez;
Hunter Pence
2011
2012
2013
2014
150
81
129
148
649
344
532
643
69
42
84
83
2011
2012
2013
2014
24.7
16.6
19.0
17.9
11.4
12.2
11.3
10.9
1.07
1.08
0.95
1.34
20
5
25
25
58
31
82
86
16.8 12.3%
18.9 5.3%
26.0 18.0%
21.4 17.5%
Players with similar stat lines: Yoenis Cespedes; Alex Gordon;
Wil Myers
19
8
10
12
.232
.300
.318
.290
.226
.241
.304
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
154
160
162
158
668
688
687
671
84
87
91
84
.286
.356
.358
.311
0.10
-2.65
5.53
4.56
196
392
26
39
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.6
21.1
16.7
17.6
8.4
8.1
7.6
7.9
1.67
1.60
1.31
1.49
22
24
27
24
97
104
99
90
17.9 14.7%
17.0 15.8%
17.2 14.6%
17.3 15.4%
8
5
22
14
.314
.253
.283
.270
.266
.258
.268
.260
.361
.290
.308
.298
5.23
2.50
6.89
4.15
32
101
10
46
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Giancarlo Stanton | MIA | Age: 24 | Rk: 19 (47)
Matt Kemp | LAD | Age: 29 | Rk: 22 (54)
Position: OF
Position: OF
I’m going to take every opportunity to chip at Stanton’s fantasy value in 2014. The man looks like he was sculpted from solid marble
and there’s almost no ceiling to his HR potential in the future, but
right now he’s wasting away in Miami, surrounded by a team that
combined to post nearly the same slugging percentage as Ichiro Suzuki. Opponents will pitch around Stanton at every turn, severely limiting his useful AB. The only way he tops 40 HR in our
projected 620 PA is with a FB% over 40.0 and a HR/FB over 30.0.
Players with similar stat lines: Chris Davis; Jay Bruce;
Jose Bautista
2011
2012
2013
2014
150
123
116
146
601
501
504
620
79
75
62
78
2011
2012
2013
2014
27.6
28.5
27.8
27.4
11.6
9.2
14.7
13.7
1.18
0.87
1.13
0.94
34
37
24
39
87
86
62
91
16.3 24.8%
22.1 28.9%
18.2 21.8%
18.9 29.8%
Kemp has tumbled from 2011’s 1st overall end-of-season rank and
talks of 40/40 seasons (wait, it was 50/50!) to 22nd among all OF.
Does he have the ability to put together a top 5 season? Of course.
Would you be surprised if Kemp went .285/90/25/90/25? You
shouldn’t be. Unfortunately, questions surrounding his health make
projecting him nearly impossible. I doubt we’re looking at the next
Grady Sizemore, but remember how precipitous his fall was? Kemp’s
“expert” ranks range from 5-40, so the jury is out on him right now.
Players with similar stat lines: Ian Desmond; Hanley Ramirez;
Yasiel Puig
5
6
1
4
.262
.290
.249
.260
.246
.294
.232
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
161
106
73
127
689
449
290
566
115
74
35
71
.314
.344
.313
.288
3.22
4.11
0.19
4.12
67
43
198
47
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.1
22.9
26.2
23.0
10.7
8.9
7.6
8.3
0.90
1.24
1.15
1.57
39
23
6
25
126
69
33
76
23.2 21.4%
21.8 21.7%
25.3 9.1%
21.6 23.6%
40
9
9
18
.324
.303
.270
.280
.316
.304
.250
.300
.380
.354
.353
.324
12.85
2.50
-2.82
3.79
1
102
403
54
Justin Upton | ATL | Age: 26 | Rk: 20 (51)
Desmond Jennings | TB | Age: 27 | Rk: 23 (57)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Owning Upton takes frustration to a whole new level. One look at
his declining offensive ranks -- 6th to 18th to 26th among OF over
the last 3 years -- illustrates why. A player with this much talent who
came up so young and performed well so quickly should be getting better, not worse. Upton is going to strike out a lot and post a
sub-.280 BA because of it, but he’s a run-scoring machine with 2530 HR power. His consensus “expert” rank on FantasyPros is 13,
ahead of Shin-Soo Choo and Alex Rios. Give me those 2 any day.
Jennings slowly has been climing the OF ranks, but people are disappointed because they expected his ascension to stardom to happen
much more quickly. We’re taking 1 last shot here and putting Jennings
in our OF top 25, figuring that he busts out a little with his BA this
season. We have him projected for .276 despite a current career-best
of .259 (2011). While we think he’ll realize some of his potential at
some point, admittedly, there isn’t a ton of statistical evidence supporting a BA breakout. His LD% and IFFB% are below average.
Players with similar stat lines: Ben Zobrist; Jason Heyward;
Kyle Seager
2011
2012
2013
2014
159
150
149
151
674
628
643
688
105
107
94
94
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.7
19.3
25.0
23.7
8.8
10.0
11.7
9.4
0.82
1.23
1.08
1.06
31
17
27
24
88
67
70
77
18.2 14.8%
20.6 11.0%
21.5 17.9%
20.3 14.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Jason Kipnis; Shane Victorino;
Dexter Fowler
21
18
8
12
.289
.280
.263
.280
.251
.257
.266
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
63
132
139
142
287
563
602
588
44
85
82
86
.319
.327
.321
.327
6.73
3.62
3.52
4.00
20
59
62
51
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.6
21.3
19.1
19.0
10.8
8.2
10.6
10.2
1.34
1.10
1.31
1.24
10
13
14
15
25
47
54
67
17.6 15.6%
20.1 9.0%
17.1 9.5%
18.3 10.4%
20
31
20
30
.259
.246
.252
.280
.250
.230
.231
.230
.303
.298
.295
.316
-1.80
1.33
1.56
3.71
310
137
139
57
Billy Hamilton | CIN | Age: 23 | Rk: 21 (52)
Wil Myers | TB | Age: 23 | Rk: 24 (58)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Ranking Hamilton takes the “how do we rank for Michael Bourn’s SB
potential?” to the nth degree. This might seem overly aggressive, but
other than short-changing our projection intentionally to drop him
in the rankings, what are we supposed to do? Hamilton bats leadoff
for a good MLB offense and has generational speed. Honestly, our
projected 81 SB might be too conservative! People worry that Hamilton won’t hit enough to stay in the leadoff slot, but he walks 7-10%
of the time and makes enough contact to put his legs to good use.
Myers is going to be a very good slugger, but I’m still a little unsure what his ultimate ceiling is. He doesn’t have much speed and
won’t develop into a perennial 10+ SB threat, which means his value comes down to his slugging potential. Like teammate Evan Longoria, I think Myers can become a .290/90/30/100 hitter, but he
probably won’t do it right away. He was predominantly a ground
ball hitter last year, and his 15.5% HR/FB rate doesn’t have a ton
of room to grow in the Trop (see: Longoria’s career 16.3% mark).
Players with similar stat lines: Everth Cabrera; Jean Segura;
Ben Revere
2011
2012
2013
2014
Players with similar stat lines: Alex Gordon; Hunter Pence;
Yoenis Cespedes
13
140
22
602
9
89
0
2
1
34
13
81
.368
.250
.523
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
88
150
373
640
50
82
2011
2012
2013 18.2
2014 17.1
9.1
7.8
3.50
3.50
35.7
35.7
0.0%
3.1%
.467
.299
-5.53
3.86
711
52
2011
2012
2013 24.4
2014 22.7
8.8
9.7
1.36
1.36
13
22
53
90
20.2 15.5%
20.2 16.3%
5
10
.293
.280
.268
.280
.362
.325
-0.32
3.65
226
58
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Jose Bautista | TOR | Age: 33 | Rk: 25 (59)
Mark Trumbo | ARI | Age: 28 | Rk: 28 (67)
Position: OF
Position: 1B/OF
Bautista’s consensus rank on FantasyPros is 11th among
OF -- what?! At that spot we’d need a .265/95/35/100 season from Bautista, and that’s probably not happening. Health
has become an issue, and Bautista’s HR/FB rate has declined
for 3 straight seasons. Our ranking is a little depressed because we’re assuming he misses about 35 games this year, so if
you think a 600-650 PA season is more appropriate, you can
slot Bautista in between Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Upton.
Now in Arizona, Trumbo should be a safe bet to post his best
offensive season of his career. He’s an established 30 HR threat
with a solid walk rate, but where he really hurts himself is in
his inability to make contact. His strikeout rate and contact on
pitches in the zone have gotten worse, and until he fixes these
holes he will be stuck in the .230-.245 range. Trumbo should
see a boost in power numbers for 2014, which means he
could approach 40 HR in a park where the ball really carries.
Players with similar stat lines: Jay Bruce; Josh Hamilton;
Giancarlo Stanton
2011
2012
2013
2014
149
92
118
128
655
399
528
556
105
64
82
86
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.9
15.8
15.9
16.7
20.2
14.8
13.1
13.3
0.79
0.75
0.96
0.84
43
27
28
33
103
65
73
88
16.0 22.5%
13.6 20.0%
16.1 17.6%
15.4 20.8%
Players with similar stat lines: Pedro Alvarez; Jay Bruce;
Giancarlo Stanton
9
5
7
6
.302
.241
.259
.260
.274
.266
.251
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
149
144
159
155
573
586
678
658
65
66
85
83
.309
.215
.259
.247
8.11
0.16
2.96
3.64
11
198
77
59
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.9
26.1
27.1
25.1
4.4
6.1
8.0
9.1
1.19
1.13
1.24
1.79
29
32
34
36
87
95
100
97
15.9 17.9%
16.0 20.6%
17.0 20.9%
21.4 32.8%
9
4
5
4
.254
.268
.234
.250
.247
.243
.243
.240
.274
.316
.273
.268
2.14
2.62
3.51
3.26
98
94
63
67
Alex Gordon | KC | Age: 30 | Rk: 26 (63)
Starling Marte | PIT | Age: 25 | Rk: 29 (72)
Position: OF
Position: OF
If you’re looking for a reliable, balanced mid-round OF, then
Gordon is your man. After breaking out in 2011 with a 7th-overall ranking among OF, Gordon has settled into the 25-30 range,
which is where we find him once again. His R and RBI numbers are highly dependent upon where he bats in KC’s lineup -- they keep shuffling him between leadoff and the middle of the order -- but the overall R + RBI total will be around
160-170, and Gordon’s BA should settle in around .275.
I love me some Marte! Even though we’re dropping him from his
2013 end-of-year rank, sliding him back from 21st to 30th, that’s only
because we think he’s more in the Carlos Gomez mold (definitely
not that good, but solid HR/RBI with a lower BA) and not a .280
hitter. There’s a good chance Marte sees a nice power breakout in
the next year or 2 as his lanky frame fills out. His average HR distance last year was comparable to David Ortiz, Pedro Alvarez, and Jay
Bruce, so is it crazy to think he can get a little better? Long term, buy.
Players with similar stat lines: Wil Myers; Hunter Pence;
Ben Zobrist
2011
2012
2013
2014
151
161
156
157
690
721
700
716
101
93
90
84
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.1
19.4
20.1
19.6
9.7
10.1
7.4
9.2
1.03
1.29
1.03
2.17
23
14
20
20
87
72
81
87
22.0 12.6%
25.0 8.5%
20.3 10.2%
25.8 18.0%
Players with similar stat lines: Carlos Gomez; Jean Segura;
Leonys Martin
17
10
11
12
.303
.294
.265
.270
.271
.267
.261
.270
.358
.356
.310
.314
6.02
2.90
3.37
3.44
23
87
65
63
2011
2012
2013
2014
47
135
150
182
566
640
18
83
85
2011
2012 27.5
2013 24.4
2014 23.1
4.4
4.4
4.8
2.32
1.85
2.04
5
12
20
17
35
48
18.4 17.9%
21.6 12.2%
20.9 18.4%
12
41
38
.257
.280
.260
.252
.276
.260
.333
.363
.305
-4.78
3.75
3.09
961
56
72
Jason Heyward | ATL | Age: 24 | Rk: 27 (66)
Curtis Granderson | NYM | Age: 33 | Rk: 30 (88)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Heyward is a player I’d love to own, but only at a discount. I know he played just 104 games last year, but he
only tallied 38 RBI and displayed noticeable ground ball
trends (again) with an abysmal IFFB%. I love his BB% and
K%, but I don’t think Heyward is going to hit enough HR
or steal enough bases to make up for the low BA and underwhelming RBI numbers. At best, he’s Jayson Werth.
While I do like Werth, that’s not a ringing endorsement.
Players with similar stat lines: Kyle Seager; Justin Upton;
Ben Zobrist
2011
2012
2013
2014
128
158
104
144
456
651
440
625
50
93
67
88
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.4
23.3
16.6
17.6
11.2
8.9
10.9
10.9
1.63
1.20
1.25
0.97
14
27
14
25
42
82
38
73
13.1 13.9%
19.3 16.9%
21.4 13.0%
26.0 15.0%
Granderson is a low-BA slugger moving to a much worse offensive environment, but does that mean he’s only a 20-25 HR hitter or a 30-35 HR hitter? Missing most of last year, that’s hard
to say for sure. We do know that Granderson hits a lot of fly
balls, though, so it’s possible he can reach or surpass 30 bombs
due to sheer volume of flies. The top of the Mets lineup is actually pretty good (Daniel Murphy and David Wright are both offensive elites at their positions), so Granderson isn’t working alone.
Players with similar stat lines: Hunter Pence; Alfonso Soriano;
Nick Swisher
9
21
2
11
.227
.269
.254
.270
.202
.264
.269
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
156
160
61
141
691
684
245
613
136
102
31
84
.260
.319
.281
.293
-2.55
4.45
-1.38
3.35
376
38
289
66
2011
2012
2013
2014
24.5
28.5
28.2
28.5
12.3
11.0
11.0
10.4
0.71
0.75
0.77
0.75
41
43
7
24
119
106
15
87
18.2 20.5%
23.0 24.2%
22.5 11.3%
21.2 15.6%
25
10
8
16
.262
.232
.229
.240
.258
.272
.223
.260
.295
.260
.302
.298
9.42
4.82
-4.44
2.47
6
34
575
88
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Michael Brantley | CLE | Age: 27 | Rk: 31 (91)
Michael Cuddyer | COL | Age: 35 | Rk: 34 (96)
Position: OF
Position: 1B/OF
Brantley broke out last year (at least as much as someone like Brantley can) with a .284 BA and 17 SB in 611 PA. Currently, I’m seeing him listed as the Indians number 5 hitter, where he spent about
1/3 of his time last year, so he should equal or top last season’s 73
RBI. It’ll be tough for him to really improve upon last year’s 10 HR
because he hits so few fly balls, but the flip side of that is he could
break out with an 18-20 HR season if his FB% goes up even a little. A low-risk player to watch, Brantley definitely has room to grow.
It’s hard to imagine a season going any better for Cuddyer than
last year. He posted a career-high .389 BABIP, which led to not
only his first .300+ BA season, but also an NL batting title. It
should be no surprise that Cuddyer was able to post monster
numbers with half his games coming at Coors Field, where he
managed a .356/.414/.582 slash. It’s tough to believe that he will
replicate career highs across the board again in 2014, but the
Coors Field effect is definitely a nice boost to his fantasy value.
Players with similar stat lines: Chase Headley; Martin Prado;
Kole Calhoun
2011
2012
2013
2014
Players with similar stat lines: Chase Utley; Marlon Byrd;
Xander Bogaerts
114
149
151
150
496
609
611
602
63
63
66
70
7
6
10
12
46
60
73
78
13
12
17
15
.266
.288
.284
.290
.247
.292
.294
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
139
101
130
135
584
394
540
559
70
53
74
71
2011 15.3
2012 9.2
2013 11.0
2014 10.5
6.9
8.7
6.5
6.3
1.55
1.69
1.58
1.00
20.2
22.5
23.3
21.6
5.9%
4.2%
6.8%
6.3%
.303
.310
.304
.312
-0.93
0.04
2.21
2.36
247
206
105
91
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.3
19.8
18.5
17.9
8.2
8.1
8.5
8.1
1.44
1.57
1.65
1.21
20
16
20
20
70
58
84
80
17.8 13.6%
20.4 18.2%
20.2 16.9%
23.4 14.9%
11
8
10
8
.284
.260
.331
.280
.273
.300
.309
.290
.312
.287
.382
.307
2.15
-0.94
5.09
2.26
96
261
32
96
Josh Hamilton | LAA | Age: 33 | Rk: 32 (92)
Adam Eaton | CHW | Age: 25 | Rk: 35 (99)
Position: OF
Position: OF
A 49th-overall rank among OF isn’t exactly what fantasy owners (or the Angels) expected out of Hamilton
last season, but should we have? His K% rose drastically by the end of 2012, and he just seemed to have lost a
step. His 12.7% HR/FB rate in 2013 is too low for a player as strong as Hamilton, and we expect something closer
to his 18.3% career average, but even then we’re looking at
a 25-30 HR OF with a bad BA and likely sub-par R totals.
In order to acquire Eaton, the White Sox had to part with established closer Addison Reed and SP/LR Hector Santiago, who was
fresh off a 3.56 ERA season. Because of what they had to give
up (and also because Eaton is really good), he’s going to play.
The center fielder has good speed and enough pop to hit double-digit HR at U.S. Cellular Field, and an everyday leadoff hitter in the AL is almost a guaranteed 80+ R. Eaton was supposed
to break out in 2013 but instead got hurt. He’ll do it this year.
Players with similar stat lines: Mike Napoli; Adam LaRoche;
Josh Willingham
2011
2012
2013
2014
121
148
151
142
538
636
636
617
80
103
73
79
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.3
25.5
24.8
24.6
7.2
9.4
7.4
8.4
1.10
0.92
1.00
1.23
25
43
21
26
94
128
79
88
21.0 16.4%
21.3 25.6%
22.2 12.7%
23.0 20.0%
Players with similar stat lines: Erick Aybar; Carl Crawford;
Denard Span
8
7
4
4
.298
.285
.250
.260
.308
.296
.263
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
22
66
151
103
277
676
19
40
84
.317
.320
.303
.304
4.21
7.78
1.26
2.35
48
8
150
92
2011
2012 14.6
2013 15.9
2014 16.3
13.6
6.1
9.5
2.63
2.31
1.18
2
3
10
5
22
55
12.1 12.5%
18.6 6.1%
19.0 5.6%
2
5
22
.259
.252
.280
.263
.248
.280
.294
.294
.325
-6.40
-4.11
2.11
1037
536
99
Brett Gardner | NYY | Age: 30 | Rk: 33 (94)
Shane Victorino | BOS | Age: 33 | Rk: 36 (100)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Gardner ranked 31st in 2011 and 37th in 2013, which are right in
line with his projected ranking this year. The “expert” consensus at FantasyPros has Gardner 43rd among OF, which I don’t totally understand. Gardner’s 35th rank last year resulted from
just a 24 SB season, and he’s definitely better than that. Comparatively, our 43rd-ranked OF is Dexter Fowler, who hits for a similarly average BA and only a touch more power but almost certainly 20 fewer SB. Gardner is a nice mid-to-late round target.
Players with similar stat lines: Jose Altuve; Jean Segura;
Michael Bourn
Victorino is a difficult player to project because we don’t even know
what side of the plate he’s going to hit from! Last year the career
switch hitter abandoned the left side of the plate in favor of hitting
at Fenway’s Green Monster, so we need to take his career numbers
to this point with a grain of salt. His plate discipline isn’t as good
from the right side as Victorino Ks more and walks less, but he
should post decent HR totals with the short left field porch. Batting near the top of an elite offense, he should score 80+ runs easily.
Players with similar stat lines: Dexter Fowler; Christian Yelich;
Alejandro De Aza
2011
2012
2013
2014
159
16
145
152
588
37
609
612
87
7
81
84
7
0
8
8
36
3
52
50
49
2
24
34
.259
.323
.273
.280
.248
.291
.242
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
132
154
122
135
586
666
532
615
95
72
82
87
2011
2012
2013
2014
15.8
18.9
20.9
18.8
10.2
13.5
8.5
9.5
1.85
1.50
1.17
1.38
19.4
37.5
23.3
22.3
6.3%
0.0%
5.7%
6.3%
.303
.417
.342
.326
2.58
-7.01
2.05
2.33
81
1101
113
94
2011
2012
2013
2014
10.8
12.0
14.1
13.3
9.4
8.0
4.7
5.2
1.01
1.29
1.22
0.98
17
11
15
14
61
55
61
59
15.8 8.9%
17.8 6.0%
22.4 10.8%
18.3 7.1%
19
39
21
19
.279
.255
.294
.270
.242
.243
.281
.250
.292
.278
.321
.295
3.07
1.87
3.65
2.08
71
117
57
100
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Dexter Fowler | HOU | Age: 28 | Rk: 37 (105)
Torii Hunter | DET | Age: 38 | Rk: 40 (113)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Fowler’s hot start, injury, and then slow finish last year are well-documented (summary: not surprising). The impact of his move from
Colorado to Houston is also well-documented (summary: bad). But
Fowler will be the everyday leadoff hitter (pending health) for an AL
team, and that’s not all bad. He was on a great SB pace last year, setting a new career-high despite missing a large chunk of time, and
anyone who’s owned Fowler before undoubtedly knows how many
walks he draws. In OBP leagues, shoot Fowler up a couple spots.
Players with similar stat lines: Shane Victorino; Christian Yelich;
Ian Kinsler
2011
2012
2013
2014
125
143
119
141
563
530
492
605
84
72
71
84
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.1
24.2
21.3
22.8
12.1
12.8
13.2
13.1
1.24
1.17
1.23
0.95
5
13
12
13
45
53
42
60
21.4 4.1%
27.2 12.3%
23.4 11.3%
21.9 8.8%
We’re more aggressive with Hunter than anyone on FantasyPros,
but he’s ranked 16th and 18th in the last 2 years, so why would
we all of a sudden drop him to 50? He’s comfortably settled into
the 2 slot in Detroit’s lineup, and while we don’t think he’s a .300+
hitter like he’s been in each of the last 2 seasons, he’s almost assuredly a .275-.285 guy. Despite the loss of Prince Fielder, the Tigers have the game’s best slugger batting 3rd and .300 BA, 100RBI guy in Victor Martinez batting 4th. Hunter will score runs.
Players with similar stat lines: Nolan Arenado; Manny Machado;
Brandon Belt
12
12
19
22
.266
.300
.263
.270
.227
.289
.266
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
156
140
144
145
649
584
652
661
80
81
90
84
.354
.390
.323
.328
-0.35
1.14
0.70
1.96
219
146
171
105
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.3
22.8
17.3
17.9
9.6
6.5
4.0
5.3
1.37
2.05
1.62
0.89
23
16
17
17
82
92
84
65
21.0 15.2%
22.6 16.0%
19.9 11.2%
21.7 8.5%
5
9
3
4
.262
.313
.304
.280
.267
.277
.268
.270
.297
.389
.344
.322
1.90
3.73
4.11
1.79
108
54
49
113
Josh Willingham | MIN | Age: 35 | Rk: 38 (109)
Kole Calhoun | LAA | Age: 26 | Rk: 41 (115)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Knee injuries killed Willingham’s power, sending him tumbling from
the 13th-ranked OF in 2012 to 126th last year. The “experts” on FantasyPros look pretty stupid with Willingham -- his consensus rank is
71 and no on has him higher than 57. Look at our 2014 projection
-- .257/27/91 -- and tell me how that’s not a surprisingly likely line.
Willingham posted numbers better our 2014 projection in both 2011
and 2012 before knee injuries ruined him last year. He’s now “fully
healthy” according to to the Minnesota Star Tribune, so take a shot.
Ah, our favorite 2014 sleeper! Calhoun impressed the Angels’
brass enough to allow them to finally ship Peter Bourjos away,
and now it’s a competition between Calhoun and J.B. Shuck for
the starting RF job (which is to say, it’s no competition). There
are even grumblings that the Angels might bat Calhoun leadoff, which means we could be looking at an 80+ R season from a
.285 hitter with 15/15 potential. Given full playing time, there’s
no reason Calhoun can’t have similar value to Alex Gordon.
Players with similar stat lines: Mark Teixeira; Mike Napoli;
Josh Hamilton
2011
2012
2013
2014
136
145
111
141
563
615
471
599
69
85
42
74
2011
2012
2013
2014
26.6
22.9
27.2
23.5
9.9
12.4
14.0
13.7
0.72
0.88
0.81
1.24
29
35
14
27
98
110
48
91
17.3 17.5%
19.0 21.2%
18.3 11.8%
23.3 23.9%
Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Belt; Brian Dozier;
Brett Lawrie
4
3
1
1
.246
.260
.208
.260
.214
.264
.203
.230
2011
2012
2013
2014
21
58
133
25
222
540
2
29
68
.287
.287
.269
.287
1.98
3.96
-3.73
1.85
106
47
492
109
2011
2012 24.0
2013 18.5
2014 16.5
8.0
9.5
9.8
1.40
1.14
1.10
0
8
17
1
32
62
29.4 0.0%
22.8 14.0%
22.7 12.2%
1
2
15
.174
.282
.280
.257
.285
.290
.235
.311
.311
-3.47
1.74
473
115
Leonys Martin | TEX | Age: 26 | Rk: 39 (112)
Position: OF
Position: 2B/3B/OF
I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t think Martin is a sleeper entering 2014, which obviously means he’s no longer a sleeper. The
Texas OF ranked 40th last year, and for 2014 we think he puts up
similar stats to last season with a little more across the board by
virtue of the added PA. Martin’s biggest weakness is that he struggles against left-handed pitchers, which means he could end
up being very streaky, but in roto leagues in particular I think
we can bank on Martin reaching these end-of-season numbers.
Prado might be one of the more consistent players in baseball over the last 4 years. Despite a couple of blips on the radar you can count on a .280-.290 BA, 10-15 HR, 140+ R+RBI,
and fewer than 5 SB. He’s a high-contact hitter, who likes to
keep the ball near the ground (liners and grounders), which
maintains his high batting average. Yes, this is boring analysis for a boring player, but he’s solid across the board and eligible at mulitiple positions, which makes him fairly valuable.
Players with similar stat lines: Coco Crisp; Will Venable;
Brett Gardner
2011
2012
2013
2014
8
24
147
150
8
52
508
568
2
6
66
76
2011
2012
2013
2014
12.5
23.1
20.5
19.4
0.0
7.7
5.5
7.7
4.00
1.60
1.81
1.31
0
0
8
14
0
6
49
43
28.6 0.0%
23.5 0.0%
21.0 8.4%
24.8 10.9%
Yadier Molina
0
3
36
32
.375
.174
.260
.270
.122
.158
.244
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
129
156
155
152
590
690
664
629
66
81
70
72
13
10
14
14
57
70
82
77
4
17
3
4
.260
.301
.282
.290
.251
.306
.298
.290
.429
.229
.319
.313
-7.18
-7.29
1.86
1.83
1178
1124
125
112
2011 8.8
2012 10.0
2013 8.0
2014 9.2
5.8
8.4
7.1
7.6
1.47
1.65
1.58
1.21
14.6
22.8
21.9
24.1
7.5%
6.2%
8.2%
8.1%
.266
.322
.288
.300
-0.84
2.81
1.80
1.71
245
88
127
117
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Nick Markakis | BAL | Age: 30 | Rk: 43 (124)
Khris Davis | MIL | Age: 26 | Rk: 46 (137)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Just because Markakis didn’t become the middle-of-the-order bat we expected him to develop into doesn’t mean he’s totally worthless. True, a 25/100 season would have more value than anything Markakis is capable of, but we still have
him projected to be a top 50 OF in fantasy. A .288 season
with 90 R over 700+ PA deserves a little time in your fantasy lineup. In points leagues that dock you for Ks, Markakis gains value -- he strikes out just 10-11% of the time.
Players with similar stat lines: Torii Hunter; Matt Carpenter;
Daniel Nava
2011
2012
2013
2014
160
104
160
160
716
471
700
712
72
59
89
90
2011
2012
2013
2014
10.5
10.8
10.9
10.3
8.7
8.9
7.9
8.7
1.24
1.33
1.52
1.61
15
13
10
12
73
54
59
62
23.1 7.7%
26.8 11.1%
22.6 5.7%
22.4 7.2%
I’ve heard a lot of skeptics say that Davis was a flash in the pan last
year and his power is unsustainable for a full season. I buy that -after all, we don’t expect him to hit 40 HR. Actually, we only expect
him to hit 22. Full disclosure: Our original Davis projection had
him at 27 HR and 75 RBI, so we definitely wanted to be more bullish. The way I see it, Davis will rack up a very good number of PA
in a hitter’s park, and he’s always displayed above average power.
He can steal bases and he walks a ton. I see few weaknesses here.
Players with similar stat lines: Cody Asche; Asdrubal Cabrera;
Brandon Belt
12
1
1
2
.284
.298
.271
.290
.295
.328
.270
.290
2011
2012
2013
2014
56
140
153
547
27
67
.300
.310
.291
.307
2.11
-0.64
0.61
1.60
99
247
176
124
2011
2012
2013 22.2
2014 18.5
7.2
11.0
1.16
1.19
11
22
27
68
20.4 28.9%
20.4 16.6%
3
8
.279
.270
.336
.280
.293
.298
-3.46
1.39
472
137
Austin Jackson | DET | Age: 27 | Rk: 44 (134)
Alfonso Soriano | NYY | Age: 38 | Rk: 47 (139)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Jackson lovers, turn away now. It’s starting to look like 2012’s 19thranked season (among OF) was the anomaly. No matter how much
speed you have or how many line drives you hit (and Jackson hits a
ton of them), you’re probably not going to sustain a .370+ BABIP.
That life lesson struck Jackson owners last year as he was finally
doomed by his 20%+ K rate, which, along with a .333 BABIP, led to
just a .272 BA. Jackson was moved down in the lineup late last year
and will probably hit 5th this year, which will even out his R/RBI gap.
Before you draft Soriano this year just because he’s still available in the 10th round after ranking 10th among OF last year,
remember that there’s no rule saying that you need to pay for
last year’s production. While his HR, RBI, and BA were relatively unchanged from his 25th-ranked 2012 season, Soriano pitched
in last year with 88 R and 18 SB. Yes, he’s DH-ing in NY, but
those R and SB totals will be extremely tough to repeat. I can’t
fault you for gambling on a back-to-back 30/100 player, though.
Players with similar stat lines: Avisail Garcia; Brad Miller;
Brett Lawrie
2011
2012
2013
2014
153
137
129
142
668
617
614
603
90
103
99
79
2011
2012
2013
2014
27.1
21.7
21.0
22.2
8.4
10.9
8.5
8.3
1.31
1.24
1.36
4.58
10
16
12
13
45
66
49
75
16.8 6.9%
23.8 11.4%
27.6 9.2%
23.0 23.4%
Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Moss; Mark Teixeira;
Nelson Cruz
22
12
8
11
.249
.300
.272
.270
.223
.287
.303
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
137
151
151
148
508
615
626
612
50
68
84
70
.340
.371
.333
.329
0.50
3.54
1.57
1.44
167
62
137
134
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.2
24.9
24.9
25.3
5.3
7.2
5.8
6.2
0.57
0.82
0.91
2.49
26
32
34
26
88
108
101
88
19.8 14.0%
20.4 17.8%
20.0 18.9%
34.4 35.9%
2
6
18
6
.244
.262
.255
.250
.249
.255
.265
.260
.266
.303
.289
.290
0.29
3.17
5.80
1.38
182
75
22
139
Christian Yelich | MIA | Age: 22 | Rk: 45 (136)
Marlon Byrd | PHI | Age: 36 | Rk: 48 (142)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Yelich has a ton of talent and will be the 2nd-most valuable Marlin in 2014, but there’s only so much he can do in that lineup. He
has definite 20/20 potential (or better), and it looks like he’ll bat
2nd for the Fish. For now, he’ll likely produce more SB than HR,
and our projected 58 RBI might be overly optimistic (who’s he going to drive in?). Yelich walks a lot, so if he can maintain a .270.280 BA, we could be looking at a .350+ OBP. Like Giancarlo Stanton, he may not fully deliver in fantasy because of his environment.
Players with similar stat lines: Alejandro De Aza; Dexter Fowler;
Brian Dozier
2011
2012
2013
2014
62
143
273
615
34
74
2011
2012
2013 24.2
2014 23.4
11.4
10.9
4.58
1.34
4
15
16
58
23.0 16.7%
18.5 11.2%
There’s nothing exciting about Byrd, who’s now on to his 5th team
in 3 seasons. Byrd’s HR surge last year came from an increased FB%
and HR/FB rate, and as much as I don’t like projecting repeats of
breakout seasons from guys well into their 30s, Byrd did hit those
24 HR in a pair of challenging ballparks (Citi Field and PNC Park).
Citizen’s Bank Park is a little cozier, and Byrd will get plenty of PA.
I’d rather gamble on the upside of the young players around Byrd
in our rankings, but the veteran OF will have a respectable encore.
Players with similar stat lines: Aramis Ramirez; Michael Cuddyer;
Kendrys Morales
10
20
.288
.270
.300
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
119
48
147
144
482
153
579
612
51
10
75
70
.380
.328
-3.34
1.40
460
136
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.2
20.3
24.9
23.0
5.2
3.3
5.4
6.0
1.78
2.00
1.06
1.72
9
1
24
20
35
9
88
77
21.7 8.7%
25.7 3.6%
23.8 16.4%
20.9 16.9%
3
0
2
2
.276
.210
.291
.280
.294
.279
.288
.290
.316
.257
.353
.332
-2.25
-7.44
3.55
1.32
353
1144
61
142
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Avisail Garcia | CHW | Age: 23 | Rk: 49 (143)
Carl Crawford | LAD | Age: 32 | Rk: 52 (154)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Garcia was Chicago’s compensation for Jake Peavy last summer, so
they’re going to put him in their lineup and see what they’ve got.
Honestly, I don’t love his moderate-strikeout, low-walk ways, but
Garcia is a 6’4, 240-pound monster playing in a small ballpark
-- we could see some fireworks. Right now we’re holding back
from a 20+ HR projection because Garcia hit ground balls more
than twice as often as he hit flies last year, and his 14.6% HR/FB
rate is already pretty good. If the FB% increases, buy immediately.
We’re at the point with Crawford where you just project an average
line with a touch of optimism and then move on. It’s been written
everywhere, but the Dodgers have one too many OF so they can
afford to spell the oft-injured Crawford to give Andre Ethier some
AB. Per Rotowire, Crawford “implied that he will return to his
basestealing ways in 2014,” so take that however you’d like. Would
it cause me to drastically change our projection? No. But if I’ve
got a free roster spot and I could use some SB, I’ll add Crawford.
Players with similar stat lines: Brett Lawrie; Chase Utley;
Austin Jackson
2011
2012
2013
2014
23
72
138
51
256
586
7
31
71
2011
2012 19.6
2013 23.0
2014 21.3
5.9
3.5
4.8
5.75
2.19
1.65
0
7
17
3
31
75
27.0 0.0%
18.2 14.6%
20.8 13.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Angel Pagan; Adam Eaton;
Denard Span
0
3
11
.319
.283
.270
.314
.259
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
130
31
116
122
539
125
469
569
65
23
62
76
.405
.344
.314
-7.16
-3.36
1.32
1111
462
143
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.3
17.6
14.1
16.0
4.3
2.4
6.0
6.0
1.40
2.00
1.56
0.92
11
3
6
9
56
19
31
50
18.1 8.0%
18.8 11.5%
23.0 5.4%
14.5 4.7%
18
5
15
20
.255
.282
.283
.280
.251
.294
.303
.280
.299
.319
.321
.324
-0.03
-5.10
-0.56
1.18
203
968
238
154
Michael Bourn | CLE | Age: 31 | Rk: 50 (152)
Denard Span | WAS | Age: 30 | Rk: 53 (156)
Position: OF
Position: OF
If Bourn isn’t stealing 35+ bases, his value takes a big hit. Really, he’s no better than Angel Pagan, and Pagan has consistently hit for a better BA. I’m having a very difficult time getting excited about Bourn, so much so that I’m struggling to fill out his
100-word intro section to his profile. His K% is on the rise, his SB
success rate is dropping, and there really isn’t much upside here.
Players with SB potential will always have a good spot in any rankings system, but it’s power you want to gamble on, not the speed.
Consensus opinion prior to 2013 was that Span would benefit greatly from leaving the Twins and batting leadoff for the World Series favorite Nationals. Span’s value did increase as he scored his
most R and stole his most bases since 2010, but those marks were
a product of increased playing time and not better per-game production. The Nationals as a whole let us down last year, so we’ll
give Span a free pass. We’re not going to project 90 R or anything crazy, but 80 R, 22 SB, and a .283 BA is very reasonable.
Players with similar stat lines: Coco Crisp; Brett Gardner;
Erick Aybar
Players with similar stat lines: Angel Pagan; Erick Aybar;
Carl Crawford
2011
2012
2013
2014
158
155
130
152
722
703
575
709
94
96
75
84
2
9
6
7
50
57
50
52
61
42
23
29
.294
.274
.263
.260
.300
.264
.261
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
70
128
153
151
311
568
662
666
37
71
75
80
2
4
4
5
16
41
47
48
6
17
20
22
.264
.283
.279
.280
.260
.282
.287
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.4
22.0
23.0
22.0
7.3
10.0
7.0
8.6
2.22
2.19
2.37
1.11
26.6
21.9
19.6
20.2
1.8%
8.0%
6.6%
3.8%
.369
.349
.338
.329
5.65
3.96
0.96
1.18
29
48
160
152
2011
2012
2013
2014
11.6
10.9
11.6
11.1
8.7
8.3
6.3
7.5
2.00
2.24
2.38
1.40
20.7
21.3
23.0
22.5
3.1%
3.7%
3.4%
2.9%
.297
.315
.313
.312
-4.37
-0.33
1.06
1.12
576
225
158
156
Angel Pagan | SF | Age: 32 | Rk: 51 (153)
Norichika Aoki | KC | Age: 32 | Rk: 54 (158)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Pagan scored 95 R in 2012 en route to a 26th-overall rank among
OF. Last year he scored 44 in just 305 PA, putting him on nearly the same pace. If healthy for a full season, Pagan is a 90 R,
7-10 HR, 50 RBI, 20+ SB player with a career .281 BA, which
means he could end up returning a better line than someone
like Shane Victorino or Austin Jackson. Considering Victorino is ranked 31st on FantasyPros and Jackson is ranked 37th,
that gives the 62nd-ranked Pagan some potentially great value.
Aoki is a slap-hitting outfielder who might have the best contact skills in baseball. He needs them because with the amount
of poor contact he makes (low LD%, high IFFB%), he needs
to put as many balls in play as he can. Moving from the Brewers to the Royals doesn’t do a ton for his fantasy value as both
lineups project to be above average, and while I would normally have concerns about moving from Miller Park to Kauffman Stadium, we only docked Aoki a 2 HR because of it.
Players with similar stat lines: Erick Aybar; Carl Crawford;
Denard Span
Players with similar stat lines: Denard Span; Angel Pagan;
Erick Aybar
2011
2012
2013
2014
123
154
71
135
532
659
305
575
68
95
44
77
7
8
5
7
56
56
30
49
32
29
9
24
.262
.288
.282
.280
.285
.275
.293
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
151
155
151
588
674
688
81
80
85
10
8
6
50
37
36
30
20
24
.288
.286
.280
.298
.315
.310
2011
2012
2013
2014
11.7
14.7
11.8
11.7
8.3
7.3
7.5
7.3
0.85
1.19
1.27
1.51
24.0
22.5
23.3
23.4
4.1%
4.5%
6.0%
5.1%
.285
.329
.307
.307
1.21
3.17
-2.38
1.18
133
76
363
153
2011
2012
2013
2014
9.4
5.9
7.7
7.3
8.2
8.0
2.00
2.76
1.12
16.9
17.7
20.6
7.9%
6.7%
2.8%
.304
.295
.298
2.49
1.65
1.07
103
135
158
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Domonic Brown | PHI | Age: 26 | Rk: 55 (164)
Melky Cabrera | TOR | Age: 29 | Rk: 58 (170)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Blasting 27 HR on the strengths of a 19.3% HR/FB rate last
year, Brown finally lived up to some of the hype he generated with impressive spring trainings a few years back. Unfortunately for Brown’s 2014 outlook, 12 of those 27 HR
came in May, and he only hit 4 after the break. It doesn’t
matter when you hit them, only that you do, but clustering
your production into such a small window bookended by
much more pedestrian play definitely raises a few eyebrows.
Players with similar stat lines: Oswaldo Arcia; Will Middlebrooks;
Matt Wieters
2011
2012
2013
2014
56
56
139
141
210
212
540
583
28
21
65
65
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.7
16.0
18.0
17.5
11.9
9.9
7.2
8.9
1.32
1.41
1.22
1.09
5
5
27
22
19
26
83
77
18.0 9.4%
20.6 9.8%
22.8 19.3%
16.7 13.8%
The Melk Man isn’t done yet. He ranked just 122nd among OF last
year, playing only half the season, but he was pretty awful in those
88 games, slugging just .360 with a wRC+ of 87. He made contact
as much as ever and that contact was generally good, but he had
almost zero extra base power (just 3 HR). It was a lost year for almost everyone on the Blue Jays (don’t you feel bad for Edwin Encarnacion?) and Cabrera hasn’t produced since his PED suspension, but I’m giving him one more chance to show he still has value.
Players with similar stat lines: Starlin Castro; Howie Kendrick;
Omar Infante
3
0
8
8
.245
.235
.272
.260
.257
.276
.305
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
155
113
88
127
706
501
372
525
102
84
39
74
.276
.260
.287
.279
-4.92
-5.76
3.05
0.97
665
993
73
164
2011
2012
2013
2014
13.3
12.6
12.6
13.3
5.0
7.2
6.2
7.2
1.44
2.00
1.48
1.15
18
11
3
9
87
60
30
67
20.3 9.8%
21.8 10.7%
22.1 3.2%
20.9 6.0%
20
13
2
11
.305
.346
.279
.280
.289
.298
.254
.280
.332
.379
.313
.311
5.96
3.32
-3.50
0.86
25
67
477
170
Alejandro De Aza | CHW | Age: 30 | Rk: 56 (166)
Coco Crisp | OAK | Age: 34 | Rk: 59 (171)
Position: OF
Position: OF
When the White Sox acquired Adam Eaton, it sent the right-handed Dayan Viciedo to the bench. Eaton will be the full-time leadoff
hitter and Avisail Garcia will also see full-time play, but Viciedo
needs to get some AB somewhere. The most likely scenario is a lefty/
righty platoon split, which ensures that the left-handed De Aza receives the larger share of playing time. His power last year was mostly legit, and I think he’s better than a .260s hitter with some good
speed and nice line drive rates, but his PA total could doom him.
Crisp’s HR total was hilarious last year. 22? Are you serious? His average HR distance was so low that he was actually
an outlier among all the other outliers. If we toss his ludicrous
2013 numbers out the window, we see a guy who ranked 52nd
among OF in 2012, but he was a 39 SB player that year. Crisp
is an average OBP player that bats leadoff for an above average offense, so he should have no trouble scoring 75-85 R, but
the power numbers will be ho hum and his BA is never good.
Players with similar stat lines: Jurickson Profar; Christian Yelich;
Josh Rutledge
2011
2012
2013
2014
54
131
153
133
171
585
675
566
29
81
84
72
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.9
18.6
21.8
21.0
9.9
8.0
7.4
8.3
1.58
1.30
1.18
1.04
4
9
17
14
23
50
62
51
19.8 11.1%
26.1 7.0%
24.7 10.8%
17.1 9.1%
Players with similar stat lines: Michael Bourn; Will Venable;
Jackie Bradley
12
26
20
19
.329
.281
.264
.270
.281
.282
.265
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
136
120
131
128
583
508
584
575
69
68
93
81
.404
.339
.318
.315
-2.92
1.74
2.82
0.90
420
125
83
166
2011
2012
2013
2014
11.1
12.6
11.1
12.5
7.0
8.9
10.4
8.9
1.24
1.25
1.03
0.99
8
11
22
10
54
46
66
45
24.0 5.1%
20.1 8.0%
19.6 12.4%
22.5 5.8%
49
39
21
27
.264
.259
.261
.260
.295
.262
.282
.280
.284
.280
.258
.285
2.81
1.58
3.93
0.82
76
130
51
171
Oswaldo Arcia | MIN | Age: 23 | Rk: 57 (168)
Nick Swisher | CLE | Age: 33 | Rk: 60 (172)
Position: OF
Position: 1B/OF
Arcia has power -- a lot of it -- but he also struck out in 31.%
of his 378 PA last season. The Twins don’t have a ton of other
options, so even if/when Arcia struggles, he’ll probably stay in
the lineup. It’s through sheet volume of PA that we have him
racking up 25 HR this year, but his BA could be even worse
than the .260 we’re projecting if he doesn’t correct that strikeout problems, which persisted against both RHP and LHP.
Heck, Arcia needed a .336 BABIP last year just to hit .251!
Swisher is the ultimate “doesn’t wow you” player and in 2013
that was especially true thanks to a shoulder injury that bothered him all year. Last year was a testament to his desire to stay
on the field, but it definitely affected his performance -- especially with his power vs. righties as he managed just a .150 ISO
(career .220 ISO). His career 13.2 BB% makes him a great option in OBP leagues and it should also keep him near the top of
the Indians lineup, which will optimize his plate appearances.
Players with similar stat lines: Will Middlebrooks; Nelson Cruz;
Ike Davis
2011
2012
2013
2014
97
141
378
599
34
63
2011
2012
2013 31.0
2014 26.0
6.1
7.7
1.04
1.46
14
25
43
78
17.1 14.7%
18.2 20.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Jedd Gyorko; Justin Smoak;
Anthony Rizzo
1
4
.251
.260
.224
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
150
148
145
145
635
624
634
630
81
75
74
85
23
24
22
24
85
93
63
70
2
2
1
2
.260
.272
.246
.250
.272
.256
.264
.260
.336
.308
-2.83
0.88
405
168
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.7
22.6
21.8
21.9
15.0
12.3
12.1
13.0
0.99
0.99
0.98
0.96
21.8
22.3
23.1
21.2
14.3%
15.4%
13.7%
15.8%
.295
.324
.288
.281
1.70
2.08
0.30
0.82
118
111
190
172
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Nelson Cruz | FA | Age: 33 | Rk: 61 (183)
Gerardo Parra | ARI | Age: 27 | Rk: 64 (203)
Position: OF
Position: OF
If Cruz were to post a Craigslist ad advertising his services, it would
read something like this: “Experienced Slugger Seeking Loving
Home (Or At Least Some Playing Time) -- Are you looking for an
affordable outfielder with a history of 30 HR power to bolster your
team’s offense? When I’m healthy, that’s exactly the kind of player I
am! Yeah, I’ve had some injury issues here and there, but what’s a
hamstring anyway? I was suspended from my last job, but it was all
a big misunderstanding.” Maybe worth a flier, but not much more.
A 4th OF for his 1st 4 seasons with Arizona, Parra worked his way
into regular playing time last year thanks to Adam Eaton and Cody
Ross getting injured. With Eaton now playing for Chicago, Parra has
the full-time leadoff job for the Diamondbacks, which means a likely repeat of his entire 2013 stat line. There’s a very low ceiling here,
but also a high floor. You’re not going to draft Parra this year and
you won’t hear his name in any preseason podcasts (or Profcasts)
but you’ll see his name on your league’s transaction tracker all year.
Players with similar stat lines: Oswaldo Arcia; Justin Smoak;
Matt Wieters
2011
2012
2013
2014
124
159
109
130
513
642
456
552
64
86
49
64
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.6
21.8
23.9
22.1
6.4
7.5
7.7
8.0
0.97
1.00
1.02
1.00
29
24
27
26
87
90
76
76
15.7 18.7%
18.5 13.1%
16.9 21.3%
17.3 17.7%
Players with similar stat lines: Jackie Bradley; Dustin Ackley;
Brad Miller
9
8
5
4
.263
.260
.266
.250
.249
.264
.255
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
141
133
156
140
493
430
663
620
55
58
79
81
8
7
10
10
46
36
48
46
15
15
10
14
.292
.273
.268
.270
.285
.280
.268
.280
.288
.301
.295
.274
2.46
2.52
1.49
0.51
84
99
142
183
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.6
17.9
15.1
16.5
8.7
7.7
7.2
8.1
1.77
2.19
2.23
2.09
22.4
22.1
19.9
21.0
8.1%
9.5%
8.2%
8.8%
.342
.323
.305
.309
-0.11
-1.46
0.44
0.10
207
295
182
203
Chris Young | NYM | Age: 30 | Rk: 62 (191)
Jason Kubel | MIN | Age: 32 | Rk: 65 (204)
Position: OF
Position: OF
From perennial 20/20 threat to journeyman 4th OF, it’s now considered
a good season if Young combines for 20 HR and SB. A platoon and defensive specialist for the past few years, Young now has a full-time job
with the Mets. It’s a 1-year contract, meaning Young could do well and
land a not-insignificant contract on the open market. More playing
time means more fantasy value, and we’re putting Young right on the
cusp of a 20 HR season. I understand why “experts” have him ranked
around 100, but his HR and SB ability over 500 PA deserves more credit.
After hitting 30 HR in 2012, Kubel managed just 5 last year.
The precipitous fall took him all the way to a minor league
contract with the team he cut his teeth with, Minnesota. Given the Twins desperate need for offense, I have a hard time
imagining Kubel not making the team as their DH. He’s hit at
least 20 HR in 4 of the last 6 seasons, and I doubt many people even know he’s back in Minnesota. Absolutely no one has
Kubel on their radar, which means you absolutely should.
Players with similar stat lines: Corey Dickerson; Domonic Brown;
Cody Asche
2011
2012
2013
2014
156
101
107
149
659
363
375
568
89
36
46
60
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.1
21.8
24.8
22.5
12.1
9.9
9.6
10.0
0.65
0.66
0.58
1.06
20
14
12
19
71
41
40
69
19.7 9.5%
22.0 12.1%
21.6 10.0%
21.8 14.1%
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Wieters; Jedd Gyorko;
Garrett Jones
22
8
10
12
.236
.231
.200
.260
.236
.238
.218
.230
2011
2012
2013
2014
99
141
97
136
401
571
290
534
37
75
21
68
.275
.263
.237
.297
1.88
-3.25
-3.04
0.31
110
441
427
191
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.4
26.4
31.7
24.9
8.0
10.0
10.0
10.5
0.82
0.76
0.80
2.81
12
30
5
21
58
90
32
79
21.3 9.8%
23.0 19.0%
26.6 7.2%
17.4 30.2%
1
1
0
1
.273
.253
.216
.250
.243
.266
.218
.250
.326
.296
.311
.340
-1.98
1.75
-5.58
0.10
328
123
721
204
Will Venable | SD | Age: 31 | Rk: 63 (198)
Jackie Bradley | BOS | Age: 24 | Rk: 66 (207)
Position: OF
Position: OF
If you asked me to put together a list of potential 20/20 candidates before last season, it would have taken me awhile before listing Venable. He’s been a 20 SB player in each of the last 4 years
despite getting stuck in a platoon with Chris Denorfia, but last
year Venable’s consistent production earned him a career-best
515 PA. Will the power return in 2014? It’s unlikely. You don’t just
jump from 4 straight years consistently around a 10% HR/FB rate
to nearly 20%, and PETCO only serves to complicate matters.
Bradley, a.k.a., Jacoby Ellsbury’s replacement, has some big shoes to
fill in Boston. After a stellar spring training last year that earned him
a roster spot on Opening Day, Bradley promptly hit like a rookie and
spent the majority of the year in AAA. He’ll bat 9th for Boston, limiting his total number of PA, but that’s almost like a 2nd leadoff slot
-- Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava, Dustin Pedroia, and David Ortiz
will be driving him in. Bradley has .280 potential with 15 HR power and 15 SB speed, but balance and OBP will be his calling cards.
Players with similar stat lines: Jimmy Rollins; Coco Crisp;
Josh Rutledge
2011
2012
2013
2014
121
148
151
144
411
470
515
508
49
62
64
67
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.4
20.0
22.9
22.0
7.5
8.7
5.6
6.9
1.17
1.64
1.50
1.05
9
9
22
12
44
45
53
45
21.1 9.2%
22.4 9.8%
21.3 19.8%
18.6 8.9%
Players with similar stat lines: Gerardo Parra; Dustin Ackley;
Coco Crisp
26
24
22
24
.246
.264
.268
.260
.252
.257
.283
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
37
129
107
534
18
81
.300
.320
.313
.317
-0.83
-0.14
2.42
0.17
243
214
97
198
2011
2012
2013 29.0
2014 20.2
9.3
9.6
2.86
2.42
3
11
10
45
15.6 21.4%
17.1 12.4%
2
15
.189
.270
.243
.270
.246
.316
-6.24
0.08
844
207
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Michael Saunders | SEA | Age: 27 | Rk: 67 (209)
Robbie Grossman | HOU | Age: 24 | Rk: 70 (220)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Saunders almost had a 20/20 season in 2012, ranking 60th
among OF that year, but his low BA and RBI total prevent
him from really shooting up the rankings. Neither is likely
to improve any time soon with Saunders’ K% still well over
20% and Seattle still choosing to use him in the bottom part
of their lineup, but Saunders makes for a great late-week free
agent add in H2H leagues where BA has already been decided. His HR and SB numbers will continue to be useful.
Players with similar stat lines: George Springer; Andrelton Simmons;
Alejandro De Aza
2011
2012
2013
2014
58
139
132
131
179
553
468
527
16
71
59
68
2011
2012
2013
2014
31.3
23.9
25.2
23.7
6.7
7.8
11.5
11.6
0.72
1.31
1.10
1.60
2
19
12
17
8
57
46
53
14.9 4.0%
20.2 15.0%
22.0 11.3%
20.4 17.5%
Before the Astros acquired Dexter Fowler, Grossman was slated to
be their leadoff man. Now he’ll probably bat 6th or 7th. In the minors Grossman posted some very, very elite strikeout and walk rates,
but translating those to a full MLB season, particularly as a member
of a lineup with little protection, will be tough. Grossman’s power
is limited, but he does have some speed and could threaten 20, or
even 30, SB this season. Because of the potentially valuable SB total
and the likely high number of PA, Grossman is on my watch list.
Players with similar stat lines: Howie Kendrick; Andrelton Simmons;
Junior Lake
6
21
13
18
.149
.247
.236
.250
.155
.258
.242
.240
2011
2012
2013
2014
63
141
288
604
29
61
4
9
21
68
6
14
.268
.270
.270
.270
.212
.297
.298
.299
0.82
-1.15
0.07
167
279
209
2011
2012
2013 24.3
2014 20.4
8.0
12.3
1.60
0.92
23.1
25.2
7.3%
5.8%
.353
.318
-4.14
-0.16
540
220
George Springer | HOU | Age: 24 | Rk: 68 (217)
Chris Carter | HOU | Age: 27 | Rk: 71 (223)
Position: OF
Position: 1B/OF
Springer will be delayed in the minors to prevent his service time
clock from beginning any sooner than it has to. Once that’s up
though, it shouldn’t take him long to don an Astros uniform. He
has nothing left to prove in the minors, going for 39 HR and 45
SB last season across AA and AAA. I’m not wholly convinced
Springer will contribute much from the get-go because he’s posted some very high K rates in the minors, but any player with 40
SB speed and a 6’3 slugging frame needs to be on your radar.
Carter’s batted ball profile actually has a lot of similarities to Chris Davis’ as both players like to swing and miss but also hit a lot of fly balls (and
HR) when they do make contact. To harness that raw power potential,
Cartner needs to offer at more pitches and make more solid contact.
In 2013, Carter swung at just 46% of pitches, made contact just 65.4%
of the time, and also popped up 12.1% of his fly balls. If he can improve all three of those areas, we might be looking at Chris Davis light.
Players with similar stat lines: Michael Saunders; Andrelton Simmons;
Matt Joyce
2011
2012
2013
2014
129
487
64
2011
2012
2013
2014 25.9
9.9
1.19
15
65
26.0 14.9%
Players with similar stat lines: Adam Dunn; Mark Teixeira;
Colby Rasmus
17
.250
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
15
67
148
152
46
260
585
615
2
38
64
63
.303
-0.12
217
2011
2012
2013
2014
43.5
31.9
36.2
34.3
4.3
15.0
12.0
13.0
0.36
0.75
0.66
0.73
0
16
29
31
0
39
82
87
37.5 0.0%
20.3 25.4%
22.4 20.7%
17.5 22.5%
0
0
2
1
.136
.239
.223
.230
.173
.247
.215
.230
.250
.295
.311
.283
-3.45
0.66
-0.18
466
174
223
Corey Dickerson | COL | Age: 25 | Rk: 69 (218)
Carlos Quentin | SD | Age: 31 | Rk: 72 (224)
Position: OF
Position: OF
The left-handed Dickerson finds him on the favorable side of a platoon split with Drew Stubbs. When he’s in the lineup, Dickerson
will probably bat leadoff for the Rockies, letting him put his decent
on-base skills to use. With only 213 MLB PA under his belt, there
will probably be a learning curve, but Dickerson has always posted average strikeout rates with above average walk rates, and he
has enough power to hit 15+ HR. For Colorado, he’s not that much
different that Dexter Fowler, though Fowler was obviously better.
For the 2nd straight year, Quentin played just over 80 games.
He underwent September knee surgery and remains a 25-30
HR threat, but the problem is that he’s rarely on the field long
enough to actually reach those numbers. From a BA perspective he’s a little underrated with a decent strikeout rate and
a good walk rate. Our projection factors in a fair amount of
upside while weighing the risk of him getting hurt again.
Players with similar stat lines: Asdrubal Cabrera; Nick Franklin;
Cody Asche
2011
2012
2013
2014
69
131
213
498
32
57
2011
2012
2013 19.2
2014 18.1
7.5
7.0
1.19
1.35
5
16
17
65
26.0 9.6%
22.3 13.6%
Players with similar stat lines: Jhonny Peralta; Cody Asche;
Neil Walker
2
10
.263
.270
.266
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
118
86
82
123
483
340
320
468
53
44
42
62
24
16
13
18
77
46
44
72
1
0
0
0
.254
.261
.275
.270
.218
.273
.264
.250
.307
.296
-4.56
-0.15
589
218
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.4
12.1
17.2
16.9
7.0
10.6
9.7
9.8
0.60
0.75
0.79
0.57
14.3
18.3
19.6
22.4
13.1%
13.9%
12.9%
12.8%
.261
.252
.297
.285
0.06
-2.54
-2.06
-0.20
201
384
346
224
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B.J. Upton | ATL | Age: 29 | Rk: 73 (229)
Andre Ethier | LAD | Age: 32 | Rk: 76 (241)
Position: OF
Position: OF
After finishing in the top 20 among OF in both 2011 and 2012,
Upton signed a big contract the Braves, who ended up paying him
$750K for every HR or SB he tallied last year. Given that Upton
is usually good for 60 combined HR and SB, either the Braves
paid him a record amount of money or Upton was terrible. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, it was the latter. Look, there’s still
an immense amount of physical ability here, and with an unrepeatable 19.3 IFFB% last year, we think he regains some value.
Players with similar stat lines: George Springer; Michael Saunders;
Kelly Johnson
2011
2012
2013
2014
153
146
126
133
640
633
446
520
82
79
30
70
2011
2012
2013
2014
25.2
26.7
33.9
27.5
11.1
7.1
9.9
9.6
1.00
0.98
1.25
0.88
23
28
9
17
81
78
26
67
18.3 14.1%
18.6 16.7%
18.9 10.2%
17.7 12.8%
Good luck projecting this guy. How many PA will Ethier get as LA’s
4th OF? Will they trade him (or someone else), paving the way for
a 550 PA season? We’ll probably know more in the coming months,
but for now we have to evaluate Ethier in the context of the situation he finds himself in: a 4th OF with poor numbers against
left-handed pitchers. He was a top 60 OF in both 2011 and 2012
-- and even better in 2008-2010 -- but you can’t draft a left-handed platoon batter based on his potential should he get traded.
Players with similar stat lines: Jhonny Peralta; Alexander Guerrero;
Yan Gomes
36
31
12
22
.243
.246
.184
.230
.241
.250
.190
.230
2011
2012
2013
2014
135
149
142
112
551
618
553
463
67
79
54
66
.298
.294
.266
.274
3.86
3.73
-5.28
-0.21
54
55
680
229
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.7
20.1
17.2
17.7
10.5
8.1
11.0
10.4
1.41
1.32
1.06
1.30
11
20
12
16
62
89
52
60
25.3 9.2%
24.1 14.1%
24.4 8.4%
20.4 15.2%
0
2
4
3
.292
.284
.272
.270
.299
.300
.285
.290
.348
.333
.315
.295
0.08
2.18
-0.81
-0.42
199
109
252
241
Junior Lake | CHC | Age: 24 | Rk: 74 (231)
Colby Rasmus | TOR | Age: 27 | Rk: 77 (242)
Position: OF
Position: OF
In our Thursday Night Live Chats, I usually have someone ask me
about Junior Lake. I understand the excitement of getting in early
on a player with a ton of raw ability, but Lake isn’t close to ready.
He has 20 SB speed over a full season and a little bit of power, but
he’s never lived up to that potential and has a poor 5-to-1 K:BB ratio. Despite posting a .284 BA last year, Lake needed a .377 BABIP
to do it. On the bright side, he creamed left-handed pitchers last
year, so keep him in mind for any deep league fantasy platoons.
Rasmus hit 22 HR in just 458 PA last year, making him an intriguing power option for 2014. Don’t be fooled by the .274
BA, though. He’s a .230-.240 hitter through and through.
Rasmus will bat 5th for the Blue Jays and should settle in the
70s or low 80s with his RBI total, but he doesn’t score many
R, doesn’t steal bases, and again, the BA will be a drain.
His best chance at being relevant in 2014 will be to channel his inner Josh Reddick and blast 30+ HR and 80+ RBI.
Players with similar stat lines: Andrelton Simmons; Howie Kendrick;
Robbie Grossman
2011
2012
2013
2014
64
148
254
564
26
54
2011
2012
2013 26.8
2014 24.5
5.1
5.3
1.38
1.42
6
11
16
60
27.8 12.5%
18.7 8.6%
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Wieters; Josh Reddick;
Matt Davidson
4
17
.284
.270
.326
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
129
151
118
135
526
625
458
573
75
75
57
71
.377
.341
-4.20
-0.24
546
231
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.1
23.8
29.5
25.0
9.5
7.5
8.1
7.7
0.75
0.89
0.73
1.80
14
23
22
23
53
75
66
78
16.5 8.3%
20.1 13.2%
22.0 17.3%
21.8 23.1%
5
4
0
2
.225
.223
.276
.240
.184
.236
.238
.220
.267
.259
.356
.291
-1.68
-0.57
0.69
-0.44
301
239
172
242
Josh Reddick | OAK | Age: 27 | Rk: 75 (238)
Dustin Ackley | SEA | Age: 26 | Rk: 78 (252)
Position: OF
Position: 2B/OF
If Reddick isn’t hitting 30+ HR (see: 2012), then he’s a low-BA
throwaway. That’s all there is to it. Ok, that might be unfair to people in OBP leagues where Reddick can substitute his career .239
BA with a less-awful .302 OBP, and I suppose there’s the 10 SB potential. It’s true that Reddick was bothered by a bum wrist last
year, which he had offseason surgery to fix, so he could get closer
to his 14.0% HR/FB rate from 2 years ago, but I think our 24 HR
projection is an example of us painting with a very realistic brush.
Ackley is currently projected to bat leadoff for the Mariners
and that’s really his only saving grace. Should things break
right for him in 2014, he has the potential to bat .270 with
double-digit homers and steals, and that could mean 80 R,
but the further he drops in the order the harder it will be for
him to rack up enough relevant coutning stats. It’s time to stop
waiting for this former top prospect to finally put it together.
Players with similar stat lines: Todd Frazier; Colby Rasmus;
Matt Davidson
2011
2012
2013
2014
87
156
114
144
278
673
441
596
41
85
54
63
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.0
22.4
19.5
19.5
6.8
8.2
10.4
9.9
0.68
0.59
0.80
0.70
7
32
12
24
28
85
56
72
23.3 7.4%
21.2 14.0%
20.1 8.9%
21.1 13.2%
Players with similar stat lines: Gerardo Parra; Jackie Bradley;
Brad Miller
1
11
9
8
.280
.242
.226
.240
.263
.252
.231
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
90
153
113
121
376
668
427
520
39
84
40
78
.318
.269
.255
.254
-3.40
2.60
-1.62
-0.39
467
96
299
238
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.0
18.6
16.9
14.8
10.6
8.8
8.7
9.4
1.05
1.29
1.89
2.17
6
12
4
10
36
50
31
44
22.3 6.2%
19.4 7.1%
21.9 4.8%
20.4 10.6%
6
13
2
10
.273
.226
.253
.270
.249
.244
.264
.250
.339
.265
.301
.300
-2.90
-1.40
-4.01
-0.57
414
292
520
252
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Garrett Jones | MIA | Age: 33 | Rk: 79 (255)
Position: 1B/OF
Position: 2B/3B/OF
Jones hit 27 HR in 2012, then slumped to just 15 last year. The
culprit? A career-worst 35.9 FB%. Odds are that rate improves
in 2014. Jones isn’t a great contributor and has very limited upside, thanks to a complete inability to hit left-handed pitching.
Last year, 94.7% of his PA came against right-handed pitching so
his struggles at the plate are even that more alarming. He’s slated to be the power-starved Marlins’ cleanup hitter so he could
provide some decent value late in the draft in deeper leagues.
Matt Wieters
2011
2012
2013
2014
148
145
144
144
478
515
440
545
51
68
41
56
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.8
20.0
23.0
22.2
10.0
6.4
7.0
7.3
0.79
0.96
1.12
1.30
16
27
15
21
58
86
51
77
19.5 11.0%
18.5 17.1%
23.9 13.6%
21.2 16.6%
Josh Reddick
6
2
2
2
.243
.274
.233
.250
.234
.284
.257
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
147
142
118
138
613
581
407
501
75
61
41
68
.283
.293
.271
.284
-1.49
1.83
-2.57
-0.63
285
119
383
255
2011
2012
2013
2014
26.6
27.4
24.3
24.4
9.8
10.7
8.6
9.2
0.97
1.34
0.84
1.67
21
16
16
19
58
55
52
58
20.4 13.8%
21.0 13.7%
15.2 12.9%
5.9 17.4%
16
14
7
8
.222
.225
.235
.240
.248
.232
.204
.230
.277
.292
.276
.282
-0.16
-1.55
-1.80
-1.10
211
303
322
270
Justin Ruggiano | CHC | Age: 32 | Rk: 80 (264)
Matt Joyce | TB | Age: 29 | Rk: 83 (278)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Having ranked 82nd and 75th in the last 2 seasons (not high enough
to earn a full-time roster spot but definitely high enough to be useful in spurts) there probably came a time when you added Ruggiano. Though he’s only really played much these last 2 years Ruggiano is actually turning 33 this April and has a professional ballplayer
since 2006. Even though it took him awhile to break through, he’s
now become a decent source of HR and RBI off free agency, and he
ranks higher than his platoon-mate in Chicago (Nate Schierholtz).
Joining David DeJesus as Tampa’s left-handed OF mired in platoon situations is Joyce. He’s carved out a nice role over the last
3 years, once finishing at the 39th-best OF in fantasy (2011).
Joyce is consistently just shy of 20 HR, and he’s flashed a little
speed here and there. A career .249 hitter, I actually see some
things in his batted ball profile that suggest he could be a .260+
batter on a regular basis, but for now we should expect a low
BA that’s buoyed in OBP leagues by a career 11.6% walk rate.
Players with similar stat lines: Dayan Viciedo; Oscar Taveras;
Wilson Ramos
2011
2012
2013
2014
46
91
128
99
111
320
472
375
11
38
49
45
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.4
26.3
24.2
28.8
3.6
9.1
8.7
9.9
1.50
1.08
1.16
1.60
4
13
18
15
13
36
50
56
12.5 14.3%
20.6 16.7%
16.6 15.1%
23.1 24.0%
Players with similar stat lines: Mike Zunino; Kelly Johnson;
Mike Moustakas
1
14
15
14
.248
.313
.222
.270
.231
.261
.230
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
141
124
140
126
522
462
481
480
69
55
61
60
19
17
18
17
75
59
47
62
13
4
7
8
.277
.241
.235
.240
.253
.237
.255
.250
.289
.401
.260
.296
-6.00
-1.06
-1.04
-0.97
853
267
269
264
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.3
22.1
18.1
19.8
9.4
11.9
12.3
11.9
0.86
0.87
0.85
1.45
21.2
19.3
20.3
18.7
12.3%
13.3%
12.7%
17.0%
.317
.281
.251
.265
2.04
-1.70
-1.00
-1.31
102
315
264
278
Cody Ross | ARI | Age: 33 | Rk: 81 (267)
Nick Castellanos | DET | Age: 22 | Rk: 84 (286)
Position: OF
Position: 3B/OF
In his 2012 season with the Red Sox, Ross ranked 59th among all
OF. It was his only fantasy-relevant season in the last half-decade.
Ross played just 94 games for Arizona last year after undergoing
season ending hip surgery, but he’s back and ready to get to play
near-full time. Arizona is a nice offensive environment, but Ross
did become more of a ground ball hitter last season (along with a
severley reduced K%). Is he trying out a new approach? More importantly, will he stick with it? We’ll learn quickly this April.
Players with similar stat lines: Lonnie Chisenhall; Justin Morneau;
Welington Castillo
2011
2012
2013
2014
121
130
94
131
461
528
351
560
54
70
33
54
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.8
24.4
14.2
19.3
10.6
8.0
7.1
7.5
0.70
0.85
1.22
1.20
14
22
8
18
52
81
38
65
17.6 9.3%
22.4 14.9%
21.4 8.3%
17.5 12.6%
Prince Fielder’s departure opened the door for every day playing time at 3B. Batting between Alex Avila and Jose Iglesias, the
correct approach with Castellanos is to expect the worst and
hope for the best. His 2013 season at AAA was encouraging, particularly his 16.8 K%, 9.1 BB%, and career-best .174 ISO, and
who else is Detroit going to put at third? Miguel Cabrera? Pah!
Players with similar stat lines: Lonnie Chisenhall; Mike Moustakas;
Michael Morse
5
2
3
2
.240
.267
.278
.260
.229
.258
.261
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
11
142
18
538
1
58
.279
.317
.303
.296
-1.95
0.96
-2.86
-0.99
324
159
409
267
2011
2012
2013 5.6
2014 18.8
0.0
7.8
1.67
4.28
0
15
0
67
5.9
0.0%
20.4 26.7%
0
2
.278
.260
.197
.260
.294
.288
-7.37
-1.45
1198
286
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Ben Revere | PHI | Age: 26 | Rk: 85 (293)
Nate Schierholtz | CHC | Age: 30 | Rk: 88 (298)
Position: OF
Position: OF
We’re now at 1,400 and counting. That’s how many PA have come and
gone in Revere’s career without a single long ball. 4 years, 10 errors in
the OF, 96 SB, 342 games, and not a single HR. That’s OK, though. I
mean really, what’s the difference between Michael Bourn (6-9 HR)
and Revere? A plus defender and Philadelphia’s lone non-slugging
OF, Revere has the starting CF and leadoff jobs locked up. He missed
half of 2013 with a broken foot, but when healthy he’s a 30-40 SB
guy capable of ranking in the top 60 (i.e., borderline starting OF).
Players with similar stat lines: Jonathan Villar; Jemile Weeks;
Alcides Escobar
2011
2012
2013
2014
Best used as a platoon player in fantasy leagues, Schierholtz
nearly doubled his career HR total last season. He was abysmal against left-handers (.170 BA) but he crushed righties (.262 BA, 20 HR). Though I’m worried that he’ll need to
maintain that incredible pace against righties to match last
year’s numbers, he did hit more fly balls than grounders for
the 1st time last year and he did register a career-best 503 PA.
Players with similar stat lines: Welington Castillo; Oscar Taveras;
Dayan Viciedo
117
124
88
122
481
553
336
569
56
70
37
61
0
0
0
0
30
32
17
36
34
40
22
31
.267
.294
.305
.260
.308
.301
.306
.300
2011
2012
2013
2014
115
114
137
134
362
269
503
465
42
20
56
47
2011 8.5
2012 9.8
2013 10.7
2014 9.1
5.4
5.2
4.8
5.6
5.91
4.61
3.39
1.54
19.9
18.6
23.2
19.8
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
.293
.325
.344
.282
-0.63
1.41
-1.90
-1.70
237
136
334
293
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.9
17.1
18.7
18.5
5.8
8.6
5.8
5.8
1.07
1.34
0.99
1.16
9
6
21
17
41
21
68
58
22.1 8.7%
19.7 8.8%
20.3 14.2%
21.4 14.2%
7
3
6
2
.278
.257
.251
.260
.276
.243
.276
.270
.315
.292
.270
.275
-2.08
-5.35
0.38
-1.78
340
673
186
298
A.J. Pollock | ARI | Age: 26 | Rk: 86 (294)
Jose Tabata | PIT | Age: 25 | Rk: 89 (301)
Position: OF
Position: OF
We had Pollock as a sleeper entering 2013, and the right-handed platoon man proved to have fantasy value. He’ll probably
have the same role this season, splitting time with Gerardo Parra, but an impressive spring training could lead to more regular playing time for the 2nd-year OF. At his best, Pollock is a
high-contact hitter with average walk rates and the ability to steal
30 bases in a full season. In Arizona, where the ball carries well,
450-500 PA of Pollock could result in 12-14 HR and 20-30 SB.
Currently, Tabata is Pittsburgh’s starting left fielder. Playing
alongside Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte definitely
makes Tabata look a lot less dynamic, but he’s a 20 SB threat
who should hit for a decent average, potentially into the .280s.
His HR potential is limited -- you could tag 1 or 2 onto our
projection but no more -- and his batting slot in front of the
pitcher is about as bad as it gets. Realistically, Tabata is probably holding down this spot until Gregory Polanco is ready.
Players with similar stat lines: Ichiro Suzuki; Alex Presley;
Jemile Weeks
2011
2012
2013
2014
Players with similar stat lines: Jordan Pacheco; A.J. Pollock;
Kolten Wong
31
137
117
93
482
384
8
64
54
2
8
7
8
38
38
1
12
17
.247
.269
.270
.279
.245
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
91
103
106
115
382
374
341
437
53
43
35
40
2011
2012 11.8
2013 17.0
2014 16.7
9.7
6.8
7.8
1.67
1.40
0.86
20.0
18.3
20.2
9.5%
6.6%
5.8%
.257
.314
.311
-6.93
-0.71
-1.71
1094
247
294
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.0
15.5
13.2
13.7
10.5
7.8
6.7
7.1
2.78
3.09
2.59
1.42
4
3
6
6
21
16
33
46
16.8 6.7%
18.1 5.6%
18.5 10.2%
22.6 5.6%
16
8
3
16
.266
.243
.282
.280
.266
.255
.304
.270
.313
.287
.315
.316
-2.36
-4.74
-3.11
-1.84
362
603
434
301
Evan Gattis | ATL | Age: 27 | Rk: 87 (295)
Oscar Taveras | STL | Age: 22 | Rk: 90 (304)
Position: C/OF
Position: OF
If you listened to our catcher Profcast or have been following our
top 200 coundown, you’ll notice Gattis took a huge, last-minute
tumble. On the eve before the Draft Guide went out, we downgraded almost every aspect of Gattis’ line. His IFFB% last year
was really bugging me, and I began to think he might struggle
enough at the plate to cost himself some PA. When HR are all you
can provide, you really, really need to hit a lot of them. Our projected 21 bombs is good, but it doesn’t quite make up for the rest.
Marcell Ozuna
2011
2012
2013
2014
105
135
382
487
44
52
2011
2012
2013 21.2
2014 26.3
5.5
7.8
0.92
0.80
21
21
65
71
14.5 17.1%
18.1 16.2%
St. Louis’ top positional prospect, Taveras missed most of 2013 with
an ankle injury. Per Rotowire, he’s been cleared to resume baseball
activities, but he’s still not ready to go at 100%. Taveras is a potential middle-of-the-order bat who had an extremely impressive 2012
season at AA (531 PA, .83 R, 23 HR, 94 RBI, 10 SB, 7.9 BB%, 10.5
K%), and the Cardinals currently have a very crowded OF after acquiring Peter Bourjos. The team won’t call Taveras up to sit on the
bench, so either Bourjos or Allen Craig is going to get screwed.
Players with similar stat lines: Devin Mesoraco; Dayan Viciedo;
A.J. Pierzynski
0
2
.243
.240
.238
.240
2011
2012
2013
2014
105
400
48
.255
.343
-1.00
-1.74
265
295
2011
2012
2013
2014 21.5
7.0
2.79
15
56
24.2 27.7%
2
.270
.270
.305
-1.89
304
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Rajai Davis | DET | Age: 33 | Rk: 91 (308)
Marcell Ozuna | MIA | Age: 23 | Rk: 94 (316)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Davis will platoon with Andy Dirks in left field for the Tigers and serve as a pinch runner on days he sits. On the strength
of his steals alone, Davis has ranked inside the top 60 OF for 2
straight seasons. He’s stolen between 40-50 bases in 4 of 5 years
with 34 in the lone year he missed the mark, and we have him for
38 in 2014. Some leagues count Net SB or CS, so it’s worth noting that Davis posted a career-best 88.2% success rate last year
with 39 Net SB. He’s generally around 75-80% and 30-35 Net SB.
Ozuna was part of my league’s most boring and inconsequential trade last season: Ozuna for Dan Uggla. He appears to be fully recovered from a season-ending thumb
injury last year, and he’ll likely get Miami’s starting CF
job. While his inexperience and Miami’s overall lack of talent limit his immediate upside, Ozuna does have enough
power to make note of. In 2010, 2011 and 2012 he hit 21,
23, and 24 HR, respectively, all at some level of A ball.
Players with similar stat lines: Ben Revere; Nate McLouth;
Ichiro Suzuki
Players with similar stat lines: Trevor Plouffe; Ryan Ludwick;
Mike Zunino
2011
2012
2013
2014
95
142
108
92
338
487
360
350
44
64
49
45
1
8
6
4
29
43
24
28
34
46
45
35
.238
.257
.260
.250
.203
.268
.253
.240
2011
2012
2013
2014
70
139
291
589
31
55
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.6
20.9
18.6
18.3
4.4
6.0
5.8
5.1
1.09
1.40
1.04
1.33
16.3
22.9
22.7
19.7
1.0%
7.3%
6.0%
4.5%
.292
.314
.308
.299
-1.78
1.56
0.72
-2.03
309
131
168
308
2011
2012
2013 19.6
2014 20.4
4.5
4.6
1.42
0.79
3
18
32
65
21.1 4.2%
23.6 10.2%
5
2
.265
.240
.256
.250
.326
.276
-3.86
-2.13
500
316
Alex Presley | MIN | Age: 28 | Rk: 92 (314)
Ichiro Suzuki | NYY | Age: 40 | Rk: 95 (320)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Minnesota’s leadoff hitter, Presley will split time with Darin
Mastroianni but wind up on the winning end of the platoon.
Presley has 15-20 SB potential, but he’ll provide litte, if anything, in HR and RBI. If he was an everyday 700 PA leadoff man, Presley could muster an 80 R, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 30 SB
season, but take about 67% of those numbers and you’re left
with a probable best-case line for the Twins center fielder.
I have a hard time imaging Ichiro wasting away as a bench player. The Yankees don’t need a Brett Gardner clone, and I have to
believe they’ll trade him before the year is out. As I said in Andre Ethier’s profile, you can’t draft a player on the expectation that
they’ll get traded unless the rumors are undeniably strong, and
right now that’s not the case. Ichiro is a better defender than Carlos Beltran so maybe he can get some playing time in right when
Beltran moves to DH, but things aren’t looking good for Ichiro.
Players with similar stat lines: Ichiro Suzuki; A.J. Pollock;
Rafael Furcal
2011
2012
2013
2014
52
104
57
138
231
370
195
450
27
46
17
61
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.3
19.5
20.0
17.6
5.6
4.9
4.6
5.6
1.81
2.59
2.11
4.84
4
10
3
4
20
25
15
32
22.9 8.3%
17.4 16.4%
23.2 8.6%
20.7 8.8%
Jemile Weeks
9
9
1
15
.298
.237
.276
.270
.295
.274
.287
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
161
162
150
128
721
663
555
485
80
77
57
55
5
9
7
4
47
55
35
28
40
29
20
20
.272
.283
.262
.270
.280
.324
.292
.300
.349
.273
.336
.319
-3.63
-3.62
-5.46
-2.12
495
481
699
314
2011 9.6
2012 9.2
2013 11.4
2014 12.0
5.4
3.3
4.7
4.1
2.84
2.09
1.96
1.32
19.1
24.7
20.9
22.0
3.9%
6.5%
5.8%
3.1%
.295
.300
.285
.301
2.34
2.21
-0.71
-2.21
88
107
248
320
Michael Morse | SF | Age: 32 | Rk: 93 (315)
Dayan Viciedo | CHW | Age: 25 | Rk: 96 (321)
Position: 1B/OF
Position: OF
In terms of fantasy value, there probably wasn’t a worse place
for Morse to land than San Francisco. A .280-.290 hitter when
everything is going right, Morse finds himself batting 7th
in one of the 3 toughest hitter’s parks with some solid outfield competition coming off the bench. It will be interesting to see if Morse, who’s called the trainer’s table his “cot” on
occasion, will hold up with a full-time role in the outfield.
He’d be much better suited as a DH somewhere in the AL.
Players with similar stat lines: Lonnie Chisenhall; Hunter Morris;
John Mayberry
2011
2012
2013
2014
146
102
88
113
575
430
337
455
73
53
34
48
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.9
22.6
25.8
23.7
6.3
3.7
6.2
6.2
1.21
2.25
1.25
1.10
31
18
13
16
95
62
27
68
19.5 21.2%
20.1 23.4%
19.5 16.0%
18.5 13.6%
The big loser when the White Sox acquired Adam Eaton, Viciedo is now relegated to platoon duty with Alejandro De Aza, and
he’ll definitely get the short end of the stick there. Last year Viciedo followed up a 25 HR 2012 season with a disappointing 14 HR
campaign, and he fell out of favor with Chicago because whatever positives he brought with his bat he promptly gave up in the
field. I’m hoping that the 367 PA we project isn’t too optimistic,
but it’s entirely possible that’s the case if Chicago’s OF stays healthy.
Players with similar stat lines: Oscar Taveras; Devin Mesoraco;
Wilson Ramos
2
0
0
0
.303
.291
.215
.250
.282
.295
.243
.280
2011
2012
2013
2014
29
147
124
93
113
543
473
367
11
64
43
46
.344
.339
.254
.328
4.32
-0.48
-4.50
-2.12
46
231
580
315
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.4
22.1
20.7
21.3
8.0
5.2
5.1
5.4
2.00
1.48
1.40
1.17
1
25
14
15
6
78
56
53
12.7 4.3%
22.1 20.5%
18.7 11.9%
19.5 16.0%
1
0
0
2
.255
.255
.265
.270
.210
.282
.248
.260
.321
.286
.308
.293
-6.51
0.26
-1.61
-2.21
1026
193
297
321
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David Murphy | CLE | Age: 32 | Rk: 97 (324)
David DeJesus | TB | Age: 34 | Rk: 100 (331)
Position: OF
Position: OF
Murphy has tallied no fewer than 440 PA in any of the past
6 seasons, all of which he spent with the Rangers. Now an Indian, Murphy will be the left-handed complement to Ryan
Raburn’s right-handed power. It remains to be seen what a
new team, new environment, and new manager mean for Murphy’s playing time, but he’s been a slightly above average player for his career with 10-15 HR power and a .275 BA. Murphy is average, but during hot streaks he can be rostered.
DeJesus is an undervalued real life player, and he also has value in fantasy leagues when used properly. There might not be a
worse batter against left-handed pitchers in all of baseball, but
against right-handers DeJesus more than holds his own. The
contrast wasn’t always so stark, but over the last 3 years DeJesus hasn’t batted over .200 a single time against southpaws. If
you’re into micromanaging your roster and you see Tampa Bay
has a string of right-handed opponents ahead, scoop up DeJesus.
Players with similar stat lines: Alberto Callaspo; Gordon Beckham;
Grant Green
2011
2012
2013
2014
120
147
142
135
440
521
476
475
46
65
51
58
2011
2012
2013
2014
13.9
14.2
12.4
14.5
7.5
10.4
7.8
8.4
1.87
1.23
1.15
1.52
11
15
13
11
46
61
45
50
16.8 11.0%
21.2 10.9%
19.3 9.2%
19.7 9.9%
Players with similar stat lines: Peter Bourjos; Yunel Escobar;
Brandon Crawford
11
10
1
2
.275
.304
.220
.270
.261
.281
.260
.270
2011
2012
2013
2014
131
148
122
158
506
582
439
600
60
76
52
76
10
9
8
9
46
50
38
46
4
7
5
2
.240
.263
.251
.250
.242
.265
.241
.250
.299
.333
.227
.289
-1.18
1.28
-3.18
-2.25
264
141
439
324
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.0
15.3
18.0
16.7
8.9
10.5
8.9
9.7
1.15
1.16
1.07
1.18
20.2
23.5
19.2
18.8
7.7%
6.1%
6.6%
5.7%
.274
.301
.295
.288
-2.49
-0.97
-2.52
-2.51
370
264
375
331
John Mayberry | PHI | Age: 30 | Rk: 98 (325)
Andy Dirks | DET | Age: 28 | Rk: 101 (333)
Position: 1B/OF
Position: OF
Philadelphia’s outfield is still sort of in flux and Ryan Howard is always an injury risk at first base, so it’s hard to tell exactly
from where Mayberry’s at-bats will come. Still, we know he’s good
enough to earn 350-400 PA with the potential for more, and I’d expect more power than last year’s disappointing 11 HR showing. His
11.3% HR/FB rate was lower than we should expect from a player with Mayberry’s raw strength. He has the upside of 20-22 HR,
and maybe more if he somehow comes into near-full playing time
Dirks turned heads in 2012, batting .322 with 8 HR, 35
RBI, and 56 R in just 344 PA. He wasn’t able to sustain that
rate over more PA in 2013 as his BABIP fell to a more average rate. On the plus side, Dirks improved his BB%, though
his K% went up as well, and he repeated his 24% line drive
rate. Infield flies were a problem so Dirks will need to correct that if he’s going to get his BA back to the .285 mark
or higher, but that’s not impossible given his contact rates.
Players with similar stat lines: Jarrod Saltalamacchia; Mike Moustakas;
Mike Zunino
2011
2012
2013
2014
104
149
134
132
296
479
384
417
37
53
47
50
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.6
23.2
23.4
21.3
8.8
7.1
7.0
8.2
1.03
1.83
1.16
2.14
15
14
11
17
49
46
39
58
17.8 17.4%
19.9 14.9%
20.5 11.3%
18.9 24.0%
Players with similar stat lines: Juan Uribe; Yunel Escobar;
Travis d’Arnaud
8
1
5
2
.273
.245
.227
.250
.262
.275
.239
.260
2011
2012
2013
2014
78
88
131
138
235
344
484
526
34
56
60
54
7
8
9
12
28
35
37
58
5
1
7
2
.251
.322
.256
.250
.239
.287
.280
.270
.293
.296
.273
.273
-1.46
-2.79
-2.97
-2.29
283
405
419
325
2011
2012
2013
2014
15.3
15.4
17.4
16.0
4.7
6.7
8.7
7.8
0.74
1.02
1.29
0.99
18.9
24.3
24.8
21.2
8.3%
8.2%
7.9%
7.9%
.273
.365
.298
.281
-3.87
-1.75
-1.75
-2.52
528
321
316
333
Ryan Ludwick | CIN | Age: 35 | Rk: 99 (326)
Lucas Duda | NYM | Age: 28 | Rk: 102 (340)
Position: OF
Position: 1B/OF
Ludwick had a .275/26/80 season in 2012, ranking 61st among OF,
but a shoulder injury limited him to just 38 games last season. With
a limited skill set, all of his value comes from the long ball, but his
HR totals have varied greatly over the last 5 years. Even if we toss
his 37 HR 2008 season out, Ludwick has still been as low as 13 and
as high as 26 across similar amounts of PA. He’s usually in the highteens to mid-20s, but that 6 or 7 HR gap is the difference between
being the 1st bat of free agency and being left for dead in fantasy.
With the additions of Curtis Granderson and Chris Young in
the outfield and the late-season resurgence of Ike Davis at first
base, it seems as if Duda has lost the confidence of the Mets
front office. He has disappointed for 2 straight seasons, and unless he really dazzles in spring training it will be tough to see
where Duda really fits in the 2014 picture. He has decent power (career .178 ISO) and on-base skills (career 11.3 BB%), but
he hasn’t been able to harness those skills into a full-time role.
Players with similar stat lines: Marcell Ozuna; Casey McGehee;
Trevor Plouffe
2011
2012
2013
2014
139
125
38
120
558
472
140
483
56
53
7
55
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.2
20.6
20.7
21.5
9.1
8.9
7.1
8.5
0.72
0.77
0.88
1.15
13
26
2
15
75
80
12
68
19.4 7.5%
23.9 18.4%
23.8 4.9%
22.7 13.1%
Players with similar stat lines: Nate Freiman; Kyle Blanks;
Josmil Pinto
1
0
0
2
.237
.275
.240
.240
.210
.297
.235
.250
2011
2012
2013
2014
100
121
100
94
347
459
384
345
38
43
42
40
.287
.299
.293
.271
-1.72
0.63
-6.64
-2.37
304
174
928
326
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.4
26.1
26.6
26.1
9.5
11.1
14.3
11.9
0.79
0.83
0.66
1.49
10
15
15
13
50
57
33
40
22.5 9.3%
22.5 12.5%
19.8 14.3%
18.2 20.6%
1
1
0
9
.292
.239
.223
.270
.272
.252
.224
.250
.326
.301
.276
.322
-2.02
-2.86
-3.61
-2.64
332
411
484
340
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2013: Starting Pitcher Year in Review
We last year’s best Starting Pitchers on both consistency and statistical balance based on their 2013 performance (small sample size alert!) and
plopped them on a chart. Take a look!
Better
in H2H
More
consistency
Great
Player
Adam Wainwright
Bronson Arroyo
A.J. Burnett
Jon Lester
C.J. Wilson
Justin Verlander
Travis Wood
Less
balance
Madison Bumgarner
Kris Medlen
Justin Masterson
Clayton Kershaw
Chris Sale
Max Scherzer
Ubaldo Jimenez
A.J. Griffin Yu Darvish
Cliff Lee
Cole Hamels
Chris Tillman
Mike Leake
Patrick Corbin
Ricky Nolasco
Mat Latos
Dan
Haren
Jose Fernandez
Mike Minor
Gio Gonzalez
Hisashi Iwakuma
James Shields
Homer Bailey
Hiroki Kuroda
More
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Felix Hernandez
Lance Lynn
Jordan Zimmermann Anibal Sanchez
balance
Bartolo Colon
Julio Teheran
John Lackey
Andrew Cashner
Ervin Santana
Francisco Liriano
Zack Greinke
Stephen Strasburg
Shelby Miller
Bad
Player
Matt Moore
Better
in Roto
Less
consistency
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If you find yourself wondering whether a certain pitcher deserved and ERA as high (or low) as he posted last year the quickest method to figure
out the answer is comparing his ERA and FIP. We put those numbers in a nifty little chart for you to better visualize which pitchers underperformed and outperformed their ERAs last year.
The chart is easy to read: If your player lands above the line then he was lucky (lower ERA than FIP), but if he’s below the line then he was unlucky
and could be due for a better 2014 season. It’s as easy as that!
ERA vs. FIP for Some of 2013's Notable SP
5.00
Lucky
4.50
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
Unlucky
2.00
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
Earned Run Average (ERA)
A Closer Look...Starting Pitcher Superlatives
Superlative
Biggest Risk
Safest Bet
Mid-Round Sleeper
Late-Round Sleeper
Post-Hype Sleeper
Best Value Pick
Round I'll Draft SP
Matt Commins
Zack Greinke
Yu Darvish
Homer Bailey
R.A. Dickey
Masahiro Tanaka
Tim Lincecum
Danny Salazar
R.A. Dickey
Matt Moore
3rd
Danny Salazar
Matt Cain
Cliff Lee
Gerrit Cole
Eric Broutman
Cliff Lee
Adam Wainwright
Jeff Samardzija
Ivan Nova
Max Scherzer
Phil Hughes
Patrick Corbin
Ivan Nova
Clayton Kershaw
4th-5th then late
Danny Salazar
Homer Bailey
James Shields
Jose Fernandez
Paul Beck
Masahiro Tanaka
Cliff Lee
Danny Salazar
Scott Kazmir
Gerrit Cole
Jarrod Parker
Johnny Cueto
Doug Fister
CC Sabathia
5th-6th then late
Cliff Lee
Matt Cain
Adam Wainwright
Archie Bradley
Adam Nodiff
Jose Fernandez
Clayton Kershaw
Doug Fister
Marco Estrada
Michael Wacha
Danny Duffy
Matt Cain
Kris Medlen
Jeff Samardzija
8th
Zack Greinke
Jonny Cueto
Ubaldo Jimenez
Sonny Gray
Jake Devereaux
Cole Hamels
Clayton Kershaw
Johnny Cueto
Corey Kluber
Hyun Jin Ryu
Matt Moore
Jordan Zimmerman
Doug Fister
R.A. Dickey
6th
Cliff Lee
Yu Darvish
Adam Wainwright
Jose Fernandez
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Starting Pitcher 2014 Preview
Rk
Prospect
1 Archie Bradley
Team
Age
ARI
21
2 Taijuan Walker
SEA
21
3 Lucas Giolito
WAS
19
4 Jon Gray
COL
22
5 Dylan Bundy
BAL
21
6 Robert Stephenson
CIN
21
7 Kevin Gausman
BAL
23
8 Kyle Zimmer
9 Noah Syndergaard
10 Jameson Taillon
KC
22
NYM
21
PIT
22
ETA
Comments
The young righty possesses an overpowering curveball and fastball which helped him
Mid 2014 dominate across two levels last season. Bradley has the ceiling of a true fantasy ace
with 200K+ potential even in the less than friendly confines of Arizona.
One of the most athletic baseball players in the minors regardless of position Walker
has the potential to develop into one of the most reliable fantasy starters in baseball
Early 2014
while pitching in a fantastic home ballpark. Control can still be an issue for the young
righty so he will still need some seasoning.
Remember this list is about pure fantasy potential so despite the fact he doesn’t even
have a full season in the minors he is high on my list. Giolito showed he was healthy at
2016
the end of 2013 following tommy john surgery. With great command and one of the
best fastballs in the minors he should move quickly on his way to being the next Nats
ace.
Coming out of college scouts were divided on whether he or Mark Appel was the best
pitching prospect in the draft. I am here to tell you that from a fantasy prospective it is
Late 2014
not close. He dominated high A ball last season striking out more than a batter per
inning. He can make it work at Coors field.
As you can tell tommy john surgery doesn’t scare me too much. Bundy is still the same
2015
bulldog on the mound who possesses three plus offerings and TJ surgery should be just
a delay to his number one starter potential.
Stephenson had a monster 2013 season where we saw the makings of the next
2015
frontline starter at Great American Ballpark. He showed great control early in his career
and his floor is likely that of a number 2 starter.
The former LSU ace had a pretty rough start to his major league career in Baltimore last
Early 2014 season and he fell just short of losing his rookie eligibility. Gausman is one of the more
polished pitchers on the list and will be a worst case scenario number 2 starter.
Zimmer had a very strange year last season. His first half of the season was filled with
disappointment as his ERA crept up over 5.00 despite strong strikeout numbers. As he
Late 2014 moved up to AA ball and became more comfortable his strikeouts increased and he
held batters to a .162 average. I think he has true number 1 potential albeit with more
question marks than some on this list.
If Syndergaard could only develop a reliable breaking ball he could be much higher on
Mid 2014 this list. Even so the young Mets stud should be a superb #3 starter behind Harvey and
Wheeler for years to come.
The Pirates preach pitching to contact over trying to strike out oodles of guys which is
Late 2014 why we have seen Taillon’s stock fall a bit this past year. The big righty still has reliable
fantasy starter written all over him and has three above average pitches.
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Player Name
Clayton Kershaw
Yu Darvish
Cliff Lee
Adam Wainwright
Madison Bumgarner
David Price
Stephen Strasburg
Felix Hernandez
Jose Fernandez
Chris Sale
Justin Verlander
Max Scherzer
Cole Hamels
Matt Cain
Anibal Sanchez
Jordan Zimmermann
Hisashi Iwakuma
Homer Bailey
Gio Gonzalez
James Shields
$ Value
$31
$26
$21
$21
$20
$20
$20
$20
$18
$18
$16
$15
$15
$12
$12
$12
$12
$12
$12
$12
Rank
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Player Name
Mat Latos
Gerrit Cole
Zack Greinke
Mike Minor
Danny Salazar
Julio Teheran
Doug Fister
Johnny Cueto
Alex Cobb
Shelby Miller
Michael Wacha
Sonny Gray
R.A. Dickey
Patrick Corbin
Tony Cingrani
Kris Medlen
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Masahiro Tanaka
Ivan Nova
A.J. Griffin
$ Value
$11
$11
$11
$10
$10
$10
$10
$9
$9
$9
$8
$8
$8
$7
$6
$6
$6
$6
$5
$5
Rank
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Player Name
Matt Garza
Justin Masterson
Jered Weaver
Marco Estrada
Jake Peavy
A.J. Burnett
Hiroki Kuroda
Andrew Cashner
Kyle Lohse
Brandon Beachy
Drew Smyly
Chris Tillman
Dan Haren
Jon Lester
Kevin Gausman
CC Sabathia
Ervin Santana
Jeff Samardzija
Derek Holland
Tim Hudson
$ Value
$5
$5
$4
$4
$3
$3
$3
$3
$3
$3
$3
$3
$3
$3
$2
$2
$2
$2
$1
$1
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Clayton Kershaw | LAD | Age: 26 | Rk: 1 (6)
Adam Wainwright | STL | Age: 32 | Rk: 4 (34)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Kershaw has been a top-3 fantasy SP in each of the last 3 years, so
is it any surprise he’s 1st at the position in our 2014 rankings? Despite being just 26 years old, Kershaw has a lot of innings on his
arm, and he’s actually seen his K/9 fall almost every year of his
career. Don’t be fooled, though. Kershaw’s K% sits around 25.0
every year, but his K/9 is falling because he’s getting more efficient. With all due respect to the other SP in our top 5, none have
a chance of playing anything other than 2nd fiddle to Kershaw.
Lost among Wainwright’s rebound season -- and it was a great one
-- is that he was actually sort of hittable. His K% was over 20 like
always, but he only put up a 1.07 WHIP despite some of the best control numbers we’ve ever seen. Opponents hit .244 against him, which
is actually right in line with his career averages. It’ll be hard to replicate that historically great BB%, so expect his WHIP to rise above
1.10. Don’t get us wrong, we love Wainwright -- he’s in our top 5 after
all -- but just don’t draft him expecting a repeat of his elite WHIP.
Players with similar stat lines: Cliff Lee; Adam Wainwright;
Yu Darvish
Players with similar stat lines: Felix Hernandez; David Price;
Madison Bumgarner
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
33
33
33
233.1
227.2
236.0
231.0
21-5
14-9
16-9
18-5
0
0
0
0
248
229
232
225
0.98
1.02
0.92
1.01
2.28
2.53
1.83
2.35
2.47
2.89
2.39
2.55
2011
2012
2013
2014
27.2
25.4
25.6
24.3
5.9
7.0
5.7
5.9
1.12
1.38
1.47
1.40
.204
.204
.192
.203
.269
.262
.251
.265
6.7%
8.1%
5.8%
5.2%
10.17
7.94
10.21
8.35
5
7
4
6
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
34
33
2011
2012 22.1
2013 22.9
2014 22.0
198.2 14-13
241.2 19-9
229.0 18-7
6.3
3.7
5.1
1.93
1.78
1.74
0
0
0
184
219
209
1.25
1.07
1.14
3.94
2.94
2.89
3.10
2.55
3.03
.254
.244
.233
.315
.305
.290
9.9%
8.1%
10.2%
2.10
7.30
4.77
110
9
34
Yu Darvish | TEX | Age: 27 | Rk: 2 (18)
Madison Bumgarner | SF | Age: 24 | Rk: 5 (35)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Darvish’s rookie season was great -- 27.1 K%, 3.29 FIP -- but he blew
that out of the water in 2013. The walks were still an issue, albeit not
as much, but Darvish struck out a whopping 277 batters, the highest
total in the league since Randy Johnson struck out 290 in 2004 -- a
full decade ago. While his punchout prowess is immensely valuable,
Darvish gets docked for those free passes, which drive his WHIP
to non-elite status. Will he be able to keep the walks under control?
His 2nd half BB% (10.9) was higher than his 1st (8.5) so we’ll see.
Bumgarner has slowly but steadily moved into the top 5 at the position. He ranked 22nd after the 2011 season, 14th after 2012, and
8th after 2013, and now he finds himself ahead of guys like David Price, Stephen Strasburg, and Felix Hernandez. We’ve all felt
Bumgarner’s greatness coming, and the fact that he has dominant splits against left-handers and at home ensure that Bumgarner will, at worst, be a borderline top 5-10 SP. Just 24 years old this
spring, Bumgarner is going to be very good for a very long time.
Players with similar stat lines: David Price; Adam Wainwright;
Felix Hernandez
2011
2012
2013
2014
29
32
33
2011
2012 27.1
2013 32.9
2014 29.3
Players with similar stat lines: Stephen Strasburg; Cliff Lee;
David Price
191.1
209.2
213.0
16-9
13-9
17-7
0
0
0
221
277
257
1.28
1.07
1.12
3.90
2.83
3.09
3.29
3.28
2.70
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
32
31
32
10.9
9.5
9.1
1.46
1.08
1.01
.218
.193
.193
.295
.264
.273
9.1%
14.4%
6.7%
3.13
6.72
5.50
80
12
18
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.6
22.5
24.8
24.5
204.2 13-13
208.1 16-11
201.1 13-9
210.0 15-8
5.5
5.8
7.7
6.3
1.37
1.44
1.33
1.34
0
0
0
0
191
191
199
209
1.21
1.11
1.03
1.06
3.21
3.37
2.77
3.01
2.67
3.50
3.05
2.78
.255
.231
.199
.207
.322
.276
.251
.269
6.2%
11.7%
8.2%
6.3%
3.16
4.94
5.32
4.68
69
31
30
35
Cliff Lee | PHI | Age: 35 | Rk: 3 (19)
David Price | TB | Age: 28 | Rk: 6 (38)
Position: SP
Position: SP
The vast majority of “experts” have Lee outside the top 5 SP, but I
don’t understand why. He’s finished 4th and 5th among SP in 2 of
the last 3 years (2011, 2013) and has posted WHIPs of 1.03 or lower in 3 of the last 4 seasons. His ERA has been under 3.00 in 2 of
the last 3 years, and he puts up these great rate stats over a whopping 220 IP. He might win fewer games than the rest of the elite
SP, but wins are one of the more easily streamable stats in fantasy. You can’t find ERA and WHIP dominance on the waiver wire.
Price’s ranking around the web is lower than I would have expected. Of the 30+ “expert” rankings on FantasyPros, all but one have
Price listed 8th or lower. Most have him in the 11-13 range among
SP. Frankly, I don’t get it. Price finished 4th among SP in 2012 but
struggled through some early arm injuries last year before turning it on late. His 2nd half ERA (2.87) was exactly what we’d expect
from one of the game’s most dominant left-handers, and that’s exactly the sort of production everyone should expect going forward.
Players with similar stat lines: Madison Bumgarner; Stephen Strasburg;
David Price
Players with similar stat lines: Madison Bumgarner; Stephen Strasburg;
Adam Wainwright
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
30
31
31
232.2
211.0
222.2
211.0
17-8
6-9
14-8
15-6
0
0
0
0
238
207
222
207
1.03
1.11
1.01
1.02
2.40
3.16
2.87
2.95
2.60
3.13
2.82
2.73
2011
2012
2013
2014
34
31
27
33
2011
2012
2013
2014
25.9
24.4
25.3
24.4
4.6
3.3
3.7
3.6
1.43
1.22
1.33
1.26
.226
.253
.230
.222
.291
.309
.287
.282
9.0%
11.8%
10.9%
8.2%
8.33
3.36
6.45
5.32
9
64
15
19
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.8
24.5
20.4
23.8
224.1 12-13
211.0 20-5
186.2 10-8
216.0 17-7
6.9
7.1
3.7
6.0
1.20
1.97
1.35
1.46
0
0
0
0
218
205
151
210
1.14
1.10
1.10
1.08
3.49
2.56
3.33
3.26
3.32
3.05
3.03
2.96
.227
.224
.251
.213
.281
.285
.298
.271
9.7%
10.5%
8.6%
8.2%
3.77
7.60
1.93
4.59
56
9
119
38
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Stephen Strasburg | WAS | Age: 25 | Rk: 7 (41)
Chris Sale | CHW | Age: 25 | Rk: 10 (53)
Position: SP
Position: SP
I took a lot of heat for drafting Strasburg ahead of Max Scherzer in
an early mock draft, but I’ll make that pick every time. In understand
the concerns over Strasburg’s health, but he struck out over a batter
per inning last year with a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Will he throw
200+ IP? Honestly, I don’t know, but I do know that the innings he
does pitch will be elite and the Nats as a whole aren’t going to disappoint again. Owning Strasburg isn’t for the faint of heart, but you
don’t win fantasy championships without a few signature draft picks.
Players with similar stat lines: Jose Fernandez; Madison Bumgarner;
David Price
Sale successfully made the leap from RP to SP in 2012 and last year
he showed it wasn’t a fluke. Had he not suffered through an 11-14
season, his 3.07 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 226 K would have made him a
top 5 SP. Last year, only Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer topped
Sale in those 3 categories, and we think Sale will be right near each of
those marks in 2014. Again, it’s the wins that holds him back in our
rankings, but if you’re in a league that can stream SP for W and K,
Sale should be drafted more aggressively. Even ahead of Hernandez.
Players with similar stat lines: Jose Fernandez; Stephen Strasburg;
Justin Verlander
2011
2012
2013
2014
5
28
30
32
24.0
159.1
183.0
192.0
1-1
15-6
8-9
14-8
0
0
0
0
24
197
191
211
0.71
1.15
1.05
1.06
1.50
3.16
3.00
2.97
1.28
2.82
3.21
3.00
2011
2012
2013
2014
58
30
30
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
27.3
30.2
26.1
27.0
2.3
7.4
7.7
7.3
1.05
1.34
1.66
1.54
.174
.226
.205
.193
.242
.311
.263
.256
0.0%
11.5%
11.1%
9.4%
-3.77
4.18
3.07
4.36
505
41
71
41
2011
2012
2013
2014
27.4
24.9
26.1
26.0
71.0
2-2
192.0 17-8
214.1 11-14
219.0 12-9
9.4
6.6
5.3
5.8
1.55
1.40
1.46
1.42
8
0
0
0
79
192
226
233
1.11
1.14
1.07
1.09
2.79
3.05
3.07
3.11
3.12
3.27
3.17
2.86
.201
.234
.228
.214
.264
.294
.289
.280
10.9%
11.6%
12.5%
8.9%
-2.17
5.19
4.78
3.82
345
26
38
53
Felix Hernandez | SEA | Age: 28 | Rk: 8 (43)
Justin Verlander | DET | Age: 31 | Rk: 11 (70)
Position: SP
Position: SP
King Felix is fantasy’s ol’ reliable, but I think he’s getting overvalued.
Most have him as a top 5 SP, but let’s not forget that Hernandez has
only once had a very good WHIP -- 1.06 in 2010 -- and his next best
WHIP is just 1.13. That’s still above average, but you don’t crack the
top 5 with a WHIP that high unless you strike out 250+ (Darvish) or
you’re a regular 19+ game winner (Wainwright, 19+ in 3 of 4 years).
Say what you want about wins being unpredictable (not wholly true) or
Seattle’s improved offense, but Hernandez isn’t a 19-20 game winner.
Players with similar stat lines: Adam Wainwright; Max Scherzer;
Justin Verlander
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
33
31
31
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.0
23.8
26.3
24.6
233.2 14-14
232.0 13-9
204.1 12-10
231.0 15-8
7.0
6.0
5.6
6.0
1.64
1.71
1.89
1.84
Last year, Verlander stumbled to a 1.31 WHIP after seasons of 0.92
and 1.06 in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Though we don’t think he’ll
get back under 1.10, we have him pegged for a solid bounceback
(1.14). We wouldn’t have been so bullish if it weren’t for September
(2.27 ERA) and October (1.13 ERA) when the Tigers’ co-ace looked
more like his former MVP self. News of some nagging injuries doesn’t
bother us in the least. Though Verlander’s stuff is unquestionably
a little diminished, he’s a professional pitcher and still pretty elite.
Players with similar stat lines: Max Scherzer; Anibal Sanchez;
Cole Hamels
0
0
0
0
222
223
216
236
1.22
1.14
1.13
1.15
3.47
3.06
3.04
2.94
3.13
2.84
2.61
2.65
2011
2012
2013
2014
34
33
34
33
.245
.240
.239
.227
.307
.308
.314
.298
9.5%
7.7%
10.0%
7.2%
3.73
5.46
4.25
4.30
57
23
48
43
2011
2012
2013
2014
25.8
25.0
23.5
23.9
251.0 24-5
238.1 17-8
218.1 13-12
222.0 14-9
5.9
6.3
8.1
6.4
0.96
1.19
0.99
1.00
0
0
0
0
250
239
217
220
0.92
1.06
1.31
1.14
2.40
2.64
3.46
3.21
2.99
2.94
3.28
3.01
.191
.215
.251
.224
.236
.273
.316
.286
8.8%
8.3%
7.8%
7.1%
11.69
8.45
2.44
3.18
2
6
96
70
Jose Fernandez | MIA | Age: 21 | Rk: 9 (914)
Max Scherzer | DET | Age: 29 | Rk: 12 (73)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Fernandez isn’t the next Felix Hernandez -- he’s better. Unfortunately, Hernandez will crush him in IP (we project 231 from Hernandez
and 195 from Fernandez) and Miami is a terrible team. Still, Fernandez made our top 10 despite the uninspiring IP total. In fact, the
next-ranked SP with fewer than 200 IP is Anibal Sanchez at 15. For
2014, most people are valuing Fernandez properly, but his hype is off
the charts in keeper and dynasty formats. It’s deserved, but even in
a keeper draft I wouldn’t take Fernandez before Price or Strasburg.
Players with similar stat lines: Stephen Strasburg; Chris Sale;
Madison Bumgarner
2011
2012
2013
2014
28
32
2011
2012
2013 27.5
2014 27.0
We’ll probably take some heat for ranking Scherzer this low, but
his 2013 value was buoyed by his 21 wins and 0.97 WHIP. With a
.259 BABIP last year and nothing spectacular in his batted ball
profile, we can only conclude that Scherzer’s .196 OBA should instead be around .220. That’s still great, but it’s also the difference
between a phenomenal WHIP and a good WHIP. The 1.16 mark
we project would still easily be the 2nd-best of his career (1.25 is
currently his next closest), so I don’t think we’re too pessimistic.
Players with similar stat lines: Justin Verlander; Anibal Sanchez;
Homer Bailey
172.2
195.0
12-6
13-7
0
0
187
214
0.98
1.06
2.19
3.05
2.73
2.62
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
32
32
32
195.0
187.2
214.1
208.0
15-9
16-7
21-3
15-5
0
0
0
0
174
231
240
219
1.35
1.27
0.97
1.16
4.43
3.74
2.90
3.26
4.14
3.27
2.74
3.58
8.5
7.8
1.36
1.23
.180
.193
.240
.264
7.1%
6.3%
5.44
4.02
28
914
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.9
29.4
28.7
25.4
6.7
7.6
6.7
7.1
1.02
0.88
0.81
0.86
.269
.248
.196
.219
.314
.333
.259
.274
12.6%
11.6%
7.6%
10.2%
0.49
3.64
8.77
3.07
169
58
6
73
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Cole Hamels | PHI | Age: 30 | Rk: 13 (81)
Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | Age: 28 | Rk: 16 (89)
Position: SP
Position: SP
If you’re making a list of undervalued SP to target, Hamels should
be number 1. We had him higher on this list (above Max Scherzer
even) before news broke that tendinitis will likely cost him Opening
Day, but Hamels is as solid and reliable as ever. His 3.60 ERA last year
looks bad for an ace-caliber SP, but that his season numbers obscure
the 2nd-half clinic Hamels put on -- 2.97 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 23.0 K%,
4.4 BB%. Hamels held batters to a .233/.274/.360 slash after the break,
meaning he made the entire league look worse than Zack Cozart.
Perennial 2nd-half slides have Zimmermann falling in most rankings
-- the highest I’ve seen him is 15th and most have him in the 18-20
range -- but I think it’s just a matter of time before Zimmermann
makes it through a whole season without a serious late-summer
slide. He was able to pitch 17.2 more innings last year in the same
number of games, so his durability is still improving. Few pitchers
can match the control that Zimmermann displays, which, combined
with low fly ball rates, ensure his ERA will be among the game’s best.
Players with similar stat lines: Anibal Sanchez; Justin Verlander;
Gerrit Cole
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Cain; Hisashi Iwakuma;
Doug Fister
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
31
33
33
216.0
215.1
220.0
208.0
14-9
17-6
8-14
13-9
0
0
0
0
194
216
202
197
0.99
1.12
1.16
1.12
2.79
3.05
3.60
3.15
3.05
3.30
3.26
3.14
2011
2012
2013
2014
26
32
32
32
161.1
195.2
213.1
207.0
8-11
12-8
19-9
16-8
0
0
0
0
124
153
161
167
1.15
1.17
1.09
1.13
3.18
2.94
3.25
3.30
3.16
3.51
3.36
3.15
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.8
24.9
22.3
23.0
5.2
6.0
5.5
5.8
1.60
1.24
1.17
1.22
.211
.234
.242
.221
.255
.290
.295
.276
9.9%
11.9%
9.1%
8.0%
6.05
6.22
1.89
2.68
22
17
121
81
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.7
19.0
18.6
19.6
4.7
5.3
4.6
5.0
0.94
1.30
1.52
1.40
.247
.247
.235
.230
.291
.288
.271
.278
5.9%
9.2%
9.5%
7.0%
0.64
3.16
4.95
2.41
157
77
35
89
Matt Cain | SF | Age: 29 | Rk: 14 (83)
Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | Age: 33 | Rk: 17 (97)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Even more disappointing than Cole Hamels was Cain, who finished the 2013 season with half as many wins (8) and twice as
many losses (10) as he had in 2012. He only pitched 184.1 innings (he hadn’t even been under 217.2 since 2007), and his 4.00
ERA was his worst since his rookie season. Why do we have Cain
14th? Like Hamels, Cain’s 2nd half was dominant -- 2.36 ERA,
1.12 WHIP, 18.8 K%, 6.1 BB% -- and he didn’t lose velocity or
show any real signs of age. We think it’s all systems go for 2014.
Iwakuma parlayed a fantastic 2nd half of 2012 into a full season of
dominance in 2013. Though Iwakuma stumbled a little in July (4.15
ERA) and August (3.97 ERA), he picked things up in September (0.76
ERA) and finished the year as fantasy’s 6th-ranked SP. As much as I
love Iwakuma -- and trust me, I love a ground ball pitcher with great
control and average or batter strikeout rates -- there’s no denying that
last year’s 2.66 ERA isn’t going to repeat itself. Iwakuma is a low3.00s ERA SP, and without elite K rates this is the best he can rank.
Players with similar stat lines: Jordan Zimmermann; Anibal Sanchez;
Cole Hamels
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
32
30
33
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.7
22.0
20.8
20.4
221.2 12-11
219.1 16-5
184.1 8-10
210.0 15-10
7.0
5.8
7.2
6.6
1.07
0.90
0.94
0.93
Players with similar stat lines: Johnny Cueto; Zack Greinke;
Mat Latos
0
0
0
0
179
193
158
175
1.08
1.04
1.16
1.10
2.88
2.79
4.00
3.35
2.91
3.40
3.93
3.56
2011
2012
2013
2014
.212
.217
.226
.211
.260
.259
.260
.251
3.7%
8.4%
10.8%
7.7%
4.45
6.79
0.18
2.64
42
12
199
83
2011
2012 19.5
2013 21.4
2014 19.8
30
33
33
125.1
219.2
211.0
9-5
14-6
16-9
2
0
0
101
185
175
1.28
1.01
1.18
3.16
2.66
3.17
4.35
3.44
3.43
8.3
4.9
6.2
1.91
1.45
1.40
.247
.218
.233
.282
.252
.279
17.0%
11.8%
8.6%
0.90
5.96
2.16
162
21
97
Anibal Sanchez | DET | Age: 30 | Rk: 15 (85)
Homer Bailey | CIN | Age: 28 | Rk: 18 (98)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Like Jose Fernandez, though obviously not to the same degree, Sanchez ranks highly despite pitching under 200 innings because of the
production he can bring on a per-IP basis. Last year I was the most
bullish “expert” on FantasyPros regarding Sanchez, and it turns out I
wasn’t even bullish enough! The Ks are legit, and despite never topping
200 innings before, Sanchez usually makes his 30+ starts each season.
Surprisingly, despite pitching on a staff that’s claimed the 2 of the last 3
AL Cy Young winners, it was Sanchez who took home the AL ERA title.
Bailey’s rise to fantasy stardom has been both steady and sudden.
On the surface those 2 adjectives seem contradictory, but consider that Bailey has started at least 19 games in each of his first 5
years, and for the most part he got a little bit better each year. He
was never rosterable for a full year, but he was starting to turn heads.
Then, once he eclipsed 200 IP in 2012, Bailey emerged as a top 40
SP (36) and then he improved upon that last year (24). If he wins
more than 11 games or pitches to his FIP (3.31) he’ll be top 20.
Players with similar stat lines: Cole Hamels; Homer Bailey;
Justin Verlander
Players with similar stat lines: Zack Greinke; Julio Teheran;
Mat Latos
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
31
29
32
196.1
195.2
182.0
195.0
8-9
9-13
14-8
14-7
0
0
0
0
202
167
202
198
1.28
1.27
1.15
1.15
3.67
3.86
2.57
3.17
3.35
3.53
2.39
3.31
2011
2012
2013
2014
22
33
32
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
24.3
20.4
27.1
24.5
7.7
5.9
7.2
6.7
1.24
1.44
1.39
1.40
.246
.261
.226
.221
.310
.310
.307
.279
10.4%
10.7%
5.8%
10.8%
0.93
0.52
4.73
2.54
141
180
40
85
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.9
19.2
23.4
22.4
132.0 9-7
208.0 13-10
209.0 11-12
211.0 15-10
5.9
6.0
6.4
6.4
1.03
1.27
1.34
1.29
0
0
0
0
106
168
199
197
1.28
1.24
1.12
1.17
4.43
3.68
3.49
3.39
4.06
3.97
3.31
3.24
.260
.253
.231
.227
.296
.290
.284
.283
11.5%
11.5%
10.2%
8.3%
-1.62
2.04
3.04
2.14
297
115
75
98
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Gio Gonzalez | WAS | Age: 28 | Rk: 19 (104)
Gerrit Cole | PIT | Age: 23 | Rk: 22 (114)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Gonzalez’s value has bounced around, but he’s always delivered
one thing: strikeouts. He’s probably (definitely) not as good as his
21-8 record and 2.89 ERA from 2012 suggest, but surely he’s better
than last year’s 11-8 record. His ERA will probably settle in around
where it was last year (3.36), and he’ll continue to deliver about a
strikeout per inning, but Gonzalez is our first real “WHIP-killer” in
our rankings (and even there he’s still pretty average). Personally, I
don’t like owning players like Gonzalez, but this is where he’ll rank.
And the 1st of the exciting sophomore SP have emerged! Last
year with the Pirates, Cole started slowly before picking up
steam down the stretch. His K% topped 21.0 in 2 of the last 3
months, including a 31.2 K% in September, and his 1.69 ERA
and 1.51 FIP in the season’s final month have fantasy owners salivating. Unlike most of 2014’s other exciting 2nd year
SP, Cole actually has a chance to rack up 185+ innings, and
that’s why he’s ranked above other similarly exciting starters.
Players with similar stat lines: James Shields; Mat Latos;
Johnny Cueto
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
32
32
33
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.8
25.2
23.4
23.6
202.0 16-12
199.1 21-8
195.2 11-8
201.0 16-8
10.5
9.3
9.3
9.0
1.39
1.61
1.32
1.42
Players with similar stat lines: Mike Minor; Michael Wacha;
Sonny Gray
0
0
0
0
197
207
192
201
1.32
1.13
1.25
1.23
3.12
2.89
3.36
3.24
3.64
2.82
3.41
3.21
2011
2012
2013
2014
.229
.201
.228
.216
.287
.267
.286
.280
8.9%
5.8%
9.7%
7.2%
3.27
6.86
1.96
2.03
65
11
116
104
2011
2012
2013 21.3
2014 23.6
19
30
117.1
189.0
10-7
13-8
0
0
100
184
1.17
1.13
3.22
3.38
2.91
2.38
6.0
6.1
1.88
1.86
.249
.223
.308
.296
8.1%
3.9%
-0.12
1.79
216
114
James Shields | KC | Age: 32 | Rk: 20 (108)
Zack Greinke | LAD | Age: 30 | Rk: 23 (116)
Position: SP
Position: SP
In his first season with the Royals, Shields pitched 228.2 innings of
the type of ball the Royals wanted. Unfortunately, it wasn’t exactly
what fantasy owners wanted. Don’t get me wrong, Shields’ 3.15 ERA
was great, but he lost over a full K/9 and his 1.24 WHIP was higher
than the 1.16-1.20 that everyone expected. While we think Shields
gains back some of his Ks, he’s not a sub-1.15 WHIP guy anymore.
Most of his value comes from pitching 220+ innings with an above
average ERA and good K rates, but Shields isn’t dominant anywhere.
Any shortlist of 2013’s 2nd-half surgers needs to include Greinke,
whose 1.85 ERA after the break was the 3rd best behind Clayton
Kershaw and Ubaldo Jimenez. Ranked 23rd among all SP, I don’t
think you’ll find anyone lower on Greinke than us -- I haven’t seen
him lower than 22nd anywhere. Our problem with Greinke is that
he doesn’t usually have a very good WHIP (barring 2013, which I’m
not buying), and his K rates (and even his ERAs) are too erratic.
There’s no doubt Greinke has top 10 SP talent, but he’s too unsteady.
Players with similar stat lines: Gio Gonzalez; Mat Latos;
Shelby Miller
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
33
34
33
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.1
23.6
20.7
21.8
249.1 16-12
227.2 15-10
228.2 13-9
228.0 15-8
6.7
6.1
7.2
7.0
1.31
1.81
1.18
1.34
Players with similar stat lines: Shelby Miller; Alex Cobb;
Homer Bailey
0
0
0
0
225
223
196
210
1.04
1.17
1.24
1.22
2.82
3.52
3.15
3.29
3.42
3.47
3.47
3.39
2011
2012
2013
2014
28
34
28
32
171.2
212.1
177.2
197.0
16-6
15-5
15-4
15-7
0
0
0
0
201
200
148
179
1.20
1.20
1.11
1.18
3.83
3.48
2.63
3.31
2.98
3.10
3.23
3.27
.215
.238
.247
.231
.258
.292
.298
.286
11.1%
13.4%
8.6%
8.8%
7.28
4.75
3.16
1.87
13
36
68
108
2011
2012
2013
2014
28.1
23.0
20.6
21.7
6.3
6.2
6.4
6.1
1.54
1.69
1.49
1.57
.242
.246
.229
.230
.318
.306
.276
.284
13.6%
10.2%
8.6%
9.5%
3.13
3.91
3.95
1.73
70
49
50
116
Mat Latos | CIN | Age: 26 | Rk: 21 (111)
Mike Minor | ATL | Age: 26 | Rk: 24 (119)
Position: SP
Position: SP
A “t” isn’t the only thing Mat Latos is lacking -- where are the strikeouts? After debuting at 9.21 K/9 in 2010 with the Padres, Latos has
now posted 2 straight seasons of sub-8.00 K/9 ball. His WHIPs have
progressively gotten worse, rising from 1.08 in 2010 to 1.21 last year,
and while he did pitch 210.2 innings last year, there are plenty of SP
with average K rates who do that. Sorry, Mat(t), but your 3.16 ERA
isn’t fooling me. I desperately want to put you in the top 15, but we’re
withholding that status from you until you get your act together.
Minor is somewhat reminiscent of Homer Bailey’s -- lots of hype,
average early returns, breakout season that coincides with first 200
IP year -- but Minor did it more quickly. Last season that Atlanta
lefty finished the year 15th among SP thanks to a pair of impressive rate stats (3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) over such a large IP total, but
Minor will be hard-pressed to repeat 2013’s success. We put him
back above 8.00 K/9, but he’s a fly ball pitcher who posted a 3.64
xFIP last year, and fly ball pitchers are prone to larger ERA swings.
Players with similar stat lines: Shelby Miller; Zack Greinke;
James Shields
Players with similar stat lines: Gerrit Cole; Michael Wacha;
Sonny Gray
2011
2012
2013
2014
31
33
32
33
194.1
209.1
210.2
211.0
9-14
14-4
14-7
15-7
0
0
0
0
185
185
187
189
1.18
1.16
1.21
1.20
3.47
3.48
3.16
3.22
3.16
3.85
3.10
3.54
2011
2012
2013
2014
15
30
32
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.2
21.6
21.2
21.4
7.8
7.5
6.6
7.1
1.04
1.26
1.34
1.27
.228
.227
.242
.225
.284
.266
.299
.275
7.3%
11.8%
6.9%
9.0%
1.84
3.71
3.35
1.83
113
57
66
111
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.3
19.9
22.1
22.0
82.2
5-3
179.1 11-10
204.2 13-9
198.0 13-9
8.3
7.7
5.6
6.4
1.05
0.81
0.82
0.80
0
0
0
0
77
145
181
180
1.49
1.15
1.09
1.13
4.14
4.12
3.21
3.38
3.39
4.38
3.37
3.38
.282
.226
.229
.221
.350
.252
.272
.271
8.0%
11.7%
8.8%
7.4%
-3.49
1.12
3.80
1.69
467
151
53
119
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Danny Salazar | CLE | Age: 24 | Rk: 25 (122)
Johnny Cueto | CIN | Age: 28 | Rk: 28 (130)
Position: SP
Position: SP
If you’re reading this, you’ve stumbled upon one of my favorite young
SP. I’ve repeatedly said that Salazar reminds me of Yu Darvish on a
per-IP basis -- Darvish is better, but not by much -- and that’s exciting to think about. Not only did Salazar post dominant strikeout
numbers at all stops last year, but his walk rates were almost equally
as impressive. Innings will limit his value as I doubt he’ll top 165170 IP this year, and we still need to see if he can do it over a full
MLB season, but you can afford a gamble like Salazar as your SP3.
Cueto has topped 185.1 innings just once in his 6 seasons (217 in
2012). Injuries have been his biggest downfall, but he’s reportedly
trying out some new mechanics this spring that should help keep
him on the field. Hopefully it works because when Cueto stays
healthy, he’s a borderline top-15 SP. His K rate has been on the
rise recently and his control has made him an above average contributor in WHIP, so all that remains to be seen is whether the
Reds should-be ace can stay healthy and return to his 2012 form.
Players with similar stat lines: Julio Teheran; Michael Wacha;
Mike Minor
2011
2012
2013
2014
10
30
2011
2012
2013 30.8
2014 28.6
Players with similar stat lines: Shelby Miller; Mat Latos;
Hisashi Iwakuma
52.0
173.0
2-3
12-9
0
0
65
207
1.13
1.18
3.12
3.28
3.16
3.00
2011
2012
2013
2014
24
33
11
32
7.1
7.7
0.86
0.81
.224
.223
.298
.302
13.7%
9.1%
-3.33
1.64
459
122
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.5
19.1
21.1
19.6
156.0 9-5
217.0 19-9
60.2
5-2
209.0 16-10
7.5
5.5
7.4
6.9
1.78
1.66
2.10
1.83
0
0
0
0
104
170
51
173
1.09
1.17
1.05
1.21
2.31
2.78
2.82
3.26
3.45
3.27
3.81
3.15
.214
.248
.206
.228
.249
.296
.236
.281
5.8%
7.9%
17.1%
6.2%
1.79
5.68
-2.45
1.50
114
20
369
130
Julio Teheran | ATL | Age: 23 | Rk: 26 (127)
Alex Cobb | TB | Age: 26 | Rk: 29 (131)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Always a top prospect in the minors, Teheran wasted no time delivering in the bigs. If it wasn’t for Mike Minor, Teheran might have
led the Braves staff, and with a 2.97 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 25.4
K% after the break, Teheran saved his best stuff for the 2nd half.
We project more of the same, but like Miller before him, he falls a
few spots in our rankings due to a large ERA-FIP gap that suggests
a repeat of last year’s ERA will be difficult. It doesn’t help that he’s
a fly ball pitcher, though his 10.1% HR/FB last year was average.
The more I study Cobb, the more I like him. Usually there’s an indirect correlation between strikeout rate and ground ball rate, but not
with Cobb. As it turns out, his best strikeout pitches are his ground
ball inducing offerings. That means when batters actually make contact, they hit it on the ground. I can’t think of a better type of starter. Cobb came back strong after a line drive to the head sidelined
him for 2 months last June, and now all that’s left to prove is that
he can make it through a full MLB season. He’ll do that in 2014.
Players with similar stat lines: Alex Cobb; R.A. Dickey;
Shelby Miller
2011
2012
2013
2014
5
2
30
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
11.5
20.8
22.0
23.8
19.2
1-1
6.1
0-0
185.2 14-8
197.0 14-11
9.2
4.2
5.8
7.1
0.65
0.50
0.92
0.85
Players with similar stat lines: Julio Teheran; Shelby Miller;
Zack Greinke
0
0
0
0
10
5
170
196
1.47
0.95
1.17
1.19
5.03
5.68
3.20
3.39
5.87
1.99
3.69
3.43
2011
2012
2013
2014
9
23
22
30
52.2
136.1
143.1
196.0
3-2
11-9
11-3
14-8
0
0
0
0
37
106
134
186
1.33
1.25
1.15
1.19
3.42
4.03
2.76
3.30
3.61
3.67
3.36
3.15
.266
.217
.242
.222
.262
.278
.288
.279
12.9%
0.0%
10.1%
8.2%
-6.00
-6.61
3.03
1.58
765
846
76
127
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.5
18.6
23.2
22.6
9.4
7.0
7.8
7.2
2.05
2.77
2.48
2.68
.243
.250
.226
.222
.284
.295
.279
.282
7.0%
12.8%
14.8%
11.2%
-3.91
-0.46
1.72
1.49
521
230
132
131
Doug Fister | WAS | Age: 30 | Rk: 27 (128)
Shelby Miller | STL | Age: 23 | Rk: 30 (133)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Moving from the AL to the NL helps a pitcher’s K total by something
on the order of 7-10 K per year for a 200-inning starter, and Fister
is probably the most notable name to be making the transition in
2014. Fister ranked 20th among SP in 2011 and hasn’t cracked the
top 45 in either of the last two years, but that doesn’t stop us from
projecting big things from the Nats’ newest toy. One of baseball’s best
ground ball and control SP, I’ll always make room for a guy like Fister. Even if his Ks and ERA are average, he’ll never kill your WHIP.
I used to think that 2-pitch pitchers, like Miller, needed to develop a
3rd pitch to become successful. Research I did on the matter shows
that’s not the case. If a pitcher has 2 dominant offerings, he can remain dominant. A pair of great pitches is exactly what Miller has. He
was shut down late last year after just 173.1 IP but still ranked 20th
among SP thanks to some great production during his 31 games. He’s
poised to take another step forward this year, but he falls to 30 in
our rankings because his 3.06 ERA is going to be tough to repeat.
Players with similar stat lines: Mike Minor; Alex Cobb;
Sonny Gray
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
26
33
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.7
20.4
18.1
19.6
216.1 11-13
161.2 10-10
208.2 14-9
202.0 14-8
4.2
5.5
5.0
4.7
1.48
1.91
2.23
2.09
Players with similar stat lines: Alex Cobb; Mat Latos;
Zack Greinke
0
0
0
0
146
137
159
164
1.06
1.19
1.31
1.14
2.83
3.45
3.67
3.31
3.02
3.42
3.26
3.03
2011
2012
2013
2014
.234
.248
.279
.231
.272
.296
.332
.282
5.1%
11.6%
8.9%
7.9%
3.69
1.14
1.10
1.55
59
148
155
128
2011
2012 29.6
2013 23.4
2014 22.4
6
31
32
13.2
173.1
197.0
1-0
15-9
15-9
0
0
0
16
169
185
0.95
1.21
1.21
1.32
3.06
3.31
1.85
3.67
3.56
7.4
7.9
7.6
1.00
0.93
0.88
.184
.230
.223
.273
.280
.276
0.0%
10.1%
7.9%
-5.34
3.07
1.46
671
70
133
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Michael Wacha | STL | Age: 23 | Rk: 31 (146)
Patrick Corbin | ARI | Age: 24 | Rk: 34 (163)
Position: SP/RP
Position: SP
There’s a chance that Wacha’s September and October heroics are going to boost his draft value a little too much. We still
really like the Cardinals youngster, and he’ll be very good
very soon, but his likely IP limit holds him back a little for
2014. On a per-IP basis Wacha can contribute Felix Hernandez-type stats, but we have Wacha projected for 46 fewer IP
than the Mariners ace. The “expert” consensus has Wacha 33rd
among SP (per FantasyPros), which seems about right to me.
After a fantastic 1st half (2.35 ERA), Corbin fell apart in the 2nd half
(5.19 ERA). Given that it was the 24-year-old’s 1st 200-inning MLB
season, the 2nd half struggles weren’t entirely surprising. In the end,
it put Corbin right where he belongs -- 3.41 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. We
project a very similar season in 2014, albeit much smoother. Because
of the late-season struggles, people are overreacting and dropping
Corbin a little too far in their rankings, so now is a good time to buy
into the young left-hander. He’s no Jeff Locke. Corbin will be fine.
Players with similar stat lines: Sonny Gray; Patrick Corbin;
Mike Minor
2011
2012
2013
2014
15
31
2011
2012
2013 25.0
2014 23.1
Players with similar stat lines: Michael Wacha; Sonny Gray;
Tony Cingrani
64.2
185.0
4-1
13-8
0
0
65
178
1.10
1.17
2.78
3.31
2.92
3.00
2011
2012
2013
2014
7.3
7.3
1.13
1.08
.216
.224
.275
.286
7.4%
5.8%
-2.44
1.26
368
146
2011
2012 18.9
2013 20.7
2014 20.7
22
32
33
107.0 6-8
208.1 14-8
207.0 13-10
5.5
6.3
6.3
1.47
1.50
1.45
1
0
0
86
178
179
1.33
1.17
1.17
4.54
3.41
3.43
4.00
3.43
3.24
.275
.237
.226
.317
.283
.277
13.5%
10.1%
7.8%
-2.20
3.06
1.03
355
72
163
Sonny Gray | OAK | Age: 24 | Rk: 32 (147)
Tony Cingrani | CIN | Age: 24 | Rk: 35 (169)
Position: SP/RP
Position: SP/RP
Like Michael Wacha, Gray’s postseason performances thrust him to
the forefront of fantasy owners’ minds. In a recent chat on our site, a
reader asked me why we were so bullish on Gray despite Oakland’s
lack of recent pitching prospect success stories. It’s a fair question,
but it’s the Ks that set Gray apart. Unlike, say, Brett Anderson, Gray
can dial up the K rate, reaching as high as a K per inning. While he’s
primarily a 2-pitch pitcher, like I said about Shelby Miller, my research has shown that’s not something we should hold against him.
Players with similar stat lines: Michael Wacha; Patrick Corbin;
Mike Minor
2011
2012
2013
2014
12
29
2011
2012
2013 25.7
2014 22.5
A lot of people have asked me if I think Cingrani can get by
with 1 primary pitch -- yes, he can. His fastball is so dominant, and his slider is pretty good, too. For the next few years,
that’s all Cingrani will need, though when the velocity inevitably declines he’ll definitely need a 3rd pitch. He has time
until that’s the case, though. Obviously, Cingrani loses value for 2014 because he only threw 136 IP across AAA and
the majors last year, but it looks like he’ll be the Reds’ 5th SP.
Players with similar stat lines: Patrick Corbin; Michael Wacha;
Sonny Gray
64.0
188.0
5-3
13-7
0
0
67
177
1.11
1.17
2.67
3.30
2.70
2.99
2011
2012
2013
2014
7.7
7.7
1.92
1.93
.212
.221
.276
.282
8.3%
7.5%
-2.13
1.24
351
147
2011
2012 40.9
2013 28.6
2014 26.2
3
23
35
5.0
104.2
161.0
0-0
7-4
12-7
0
0
0
9
120
177
1.20
1.10
1.18
1.80
2.92
3.31
3.29
3.78
3.79
9.1
10.2
9.1
1.75
0.77
0.74
.200
.192
.207
.300
.241
.261
25.0%
12.6%
10.5%
-6.45
-0.03
0.87
813
207
169
R.A. Dickey | TOR | Age: 39 | Rk: 33 (161)
Kris Medlen | ATL | Age: 28 | Rk: 36 (174)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Dickey is one of our favorite undervalued SP. The “experts” on FantasyPros have Dickey ranked 47th among SP, all in the 33-67 range,
but what I really like about Dickey is his durability. That’s a common
trait among knuckleballers, but unlike most knuckleballers Dickey is able to consistently post above average K rates. Don’t forget it
was just 2 years ago that he won the NL Cy Young, and despite a
poor start to his Blue Jays career (4.50 and 5.82 ERAs in April and
May), Dickey finished the year strong (3.54 ERA after the break).
We’re a little lower on Medlen than most, and it’s because he features
an average strikeout rate across an average number of innings (average for a fantasy SP3 or SP4 at least). He finished 2013 incredibly
strong, pitching to a 2.38 ERA with a 1.02 in the 2nd half, but I’m
not entriely sold he can remain at that pace for a full season. If you’re
looking for a moderate risk SP with high upside, then Medlen is
someone to target. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Patrick Corbin, and R.A. Dickey are
all more reliable options, but Medlen probably has the most upside.
Players with similar stat lines: Alex Cobb; Julio Teheran;
Patrick Corbin
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
34
34
33
2011
2012
2013
2014
15.3
24.8
18.8
20.5
208.2 8-13
233.2 20-6
224.2 14-13
221.0 14-11
6.2
5.8
7.5
6.5
1.54
1.35
1.00
1.11
Players with similar stat lines: Hyun-Jin Ryu; Matt Garza;
Masahiro Tanaka
0
0
0
0
134
230
177
189
1.23
1.05
1.24
1.18
3.28
2.73
4.21
3.61
3.77
3.27
4.58
3.49
2011
2012
2013
2014
2
50
32
32
.248
.222
.240
.225
.278
.275
.265
.273
8.3%
11.3%
12.7%
7.6%
0.54
8.79
1.20
1.06
164
4
151
161
2011
2012
2013
2014
25.0
23.1
19.2
20.3
2.1
0-0
138.0 10-1
197.0 15-12
192.0 14-11
0.0
4.4
5.7
5.5
0.67
1.90
1.48
1.57
0
1
0
0
2
120
157
163
0.43
0.91
1.22
1.20
0.00
1.57
3.11
3.33
1.31
2.42
3.48
2.97
.125
.207
.254
.239
.167
.261
.298
.296
0.0%
5.7%
9.9%
6.4%
-6.23
5.00
2.85
0.75
810
29
81
174
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Hyun-Jin Ryu | LAD | Age: 27 | Rk: 37 (178)
A.J. Griffin | OAK | Age: 26 | Rk: 40 (187)
Position: SP
Position: SP
I spent about 3 months trying to dump Ryu after he came out strong
in April. While Ryu delivered great ERAs in almost every month (he
was under 3.00 in 4 of 6 months), his strikeout rate plummeted after the season’s 1st month. Statistically, Ryu’s season bounced around
a lot, primarily with his peripherals, but his ERA was solid all season long. After game 162, Ryu was sitting with a 3.00 ERA, 3.24 FIP,
and 3.46 xFIP, so while I wasn’t his biggest fan all year, he still got
the job done. On the plus side, his BB% was great late in the year.
FantasyPros lists Griffin’s consensus “expert” rank at 66. Clearly, we’re
much higher than that. While Griffin is a fly ball pitcher, which I
can’t stand, he does pitch in a spacious ballpark and he has above
average control. Griffin surprised last year, finishing 30th among all
SP, so he’s already proven he can be a borderline top-30 SP. A lowwalk, fly ball pitcher, Griffin is a sneaky contributor in WHIP (fly ball
pitchers tend to have lower WHIPs because fly balls are converted
into outs more than grounders) in the same way that Jake Peavy is.
Players with similar stat lines: Kris Medlen; Hiroki Kuroda;
Masahiro Tanaka
2011
2012
2013
2014
30
32
2011
2012
2013 19.7
2014 19.2
Players with similar stat lines: Jake Peavy; Marco Estrada;
Matt Garza
192.0
197.0
14-8
14-9
0
0
154
159
1.20
1.20
3.00
3.31
3.24
3.10
2011
2012
2013
2014
6.3
5.9
1.66
1.67
.248
.240
.296
.293
8.7%
6.6%
2.81
0.67
84
178
2011
2012 19.1
2013 20.8
2014 21.3
15
32
32
82.1
7-1
200.0 14-10
188.0 13-11
5.7
6.6
6.4
0.96
0.65
0.62
0
0
0
64
171
166
1.13
1.13
1.15
3.06
3.83
3.78
3.85
4.55
4.13
.234
.224
.224
.264
.242
.258
10.2%
12.5%
10.1%
-1.28
2.54
0.42
285
91
187
Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | Age: 25 | Rk: 38 (180)
Matt Garza | MIL | Age: 30 | Rk: 41 (190)
Position: SP
Position: SP
The Great Unknown, Tanaka is difficult to project given the few
good comparisons we have. Most agree that he’s not quite the strikeout pitcher that Yu Darvish is, that his repertoire resembles Hiroki Kuroda’s, and that his final stats will probably mimic Hisashi
Iwakuma’s, but that’s all speculation. It’s impossible to know how
a person will handle such a difficult transition, but most believe
Tanaka will handle things well. What we do know is that his control is impeccable, and, personally, that’s good enough for me.
Garza is consistent. Only once in the last 5 years has he had an ERA
outside the 3.82-3.95 range (3.32 in 2011), and his WHIP is generally in the mid-1.20s. Of course, injuries are always a concern, but
Garza was able to stay healthy and pitch reasonably well last year after missing the 1st month with a strained lat. Garza a good player
to target -- there are few high-upside options this late in drafts. You
know you’ll get solid production when he’s on the field, which is better than knowing they’ll be there and not knowing if they’ll produce.
Players with similar stat lines: Tony Cingrani; Kris Medlen;
Hyun-Jin Ryu
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
2011
2012
2013
2014 21.4
Players with similar stat lines: Kris Medlen; Hyun-Jin Ryu;
R.A. Dickey
185.0
12-8
0
165
1.18
3.24
3.47
2011
2012
2013
2014
31
18
24
31
7.3
1.67
.222
.271
9.8%
0.62
180
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.5
22.6
20.9
21.3
198.0 10-10
103.2 5-7
155.1 10-6
194.0 14-0
7.5
7.6
6.4
6.4
1.42
1.42
1.01
1.00
0
0
0
0
197
96
136
173
1.26
1.18
1.24
1.20
3.32
3.91
3.82
3.68
2.95
4.17
3.88
2.17
.241
.232
.248
.237
.306
.271
.290
.311
7.7%
16.3%
11.6%
0.1%
1.97
-1.66
-0.15
0.36
107
312
219
190
Ivan Nova | NYY | Age: 27 | Rk: 39 (185)
Justin Masterson | CLE | Age: 29 | Rk: 42 (194)
Position: SP/RP
Position: SP/RP
Nova wasn’t as good as his 16-4 season in 2011, but he’s better than
most are giving him credit for this season. I keep seeing him ranked
with the likes of Dan Straily, Scott Kazmir, and Bartolo Colon, but
Nova should approach 200 IP of 8.00 K/9 ball. He can defeat Yankee Stadium because of his great ground ball rate, and his control is
above average. Even though his WHIP is a little high, the grounders and good control keep his ERA down. In the 2nd half last year,
Nova pitched to a 2.78 ERA with an 18.4 LD% and 2.03 GB/FB ratio.
Masterson broke out last year, absolutely dominating right-handed
batters en route to a top-25 season. His slider is devastating, and for
all the flack he takes about not being able to get left-handers out,
he actually performed admirably against them in 2013. We think
he keeps most of the Ks, but his WHIP was a little too good to be
true. When that goes back up (we think to 1.28), so will Masterson’s rank. He’s a fantastic option in leagues that count IP, QS, or
particularly K/9, and he has more upside than most in this range.
Players with similar stat lines: Justin Masterson; Matt Garza;
Chris Tillman
Players with similar stat lines: Ivan Nova; Matt Garza;
R.A. Dickey
2011
2012
2013
2014
28
28
23
31
165.1
170.1
139.1
198.0
16-4
12-8
9-6
15-9
0
0
0
0
98
153
116
174
1.33
1.47
1.28
1.25
3.70
5.02
3.10
3.42
4.01
4.60
3.47
3.97
2011
2012
2013
2014
34
34
32
33
216.0
206.1
193.0
208.0
12-10
11-15
14-10
14-10
0
0
0
0
158
159
195
188
1.28
1.45
1.20
1.25
3.21
4.93
3.45
3.45
3.28
4.16
3.35
3.44
2011
2012
2013
2014
13.9
20.5
19.8
20.7
8.1
7.5
7.5
7.5
1.83
1.40
2.05
1.80
.254
.284
.256
.233
.283
.331
.313
.276
8.4%
16.6%
8.4%
13.8%
0.32
-2.07
-0.32
0.46
181
346
225
185
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.4
17.6
24.3
21.2
7.2
9.7
9.5
9.8
2.06
2.23
2.40
2.41
.254
.263
.220
.214
.302
.309
.285
.269
6.3%
11.4%
10.7%
8.6%
1.75
-2.42
3.04
0.26
117
374
74
194
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Jered Weaver | LAA | Age: 31 | Rk: 43 (195)
A.J. Burnett | PHI | Age: 37 | Rk: 46 (208)
Position: SP
Position: SP
After posting top-10 seasons in 2011 and 2012, Weaver missed about
a month of 2013 and has officially begun the long fall from the top
of the SP position. His walk rates are still elite (he’ll still contribute
in WHIP), but we’re all waiting for Weaver’s ERA to fall hard. Despite ERAs of 2.81 and 3.27 in 2012 and 2013, Weaver’s FIP wasn’t
better than 3.75 in either season, and his xFIP wasn’t better than
4.18. The high fly ball rates and decreasing strikeout rates are going
to catch up with him, and I don’t want to own him when they do.
Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Beachy; Hiroki Kuroda;
Kyle Lohse
I don’t like Burnett in Philadelphia as much as I did when he was
in Pittsburgh, but it’s hard to deny the pitcher he’s become over the
last 2 years, finishing no lower than 32nd among SP. He consistently
throws 200+ innings of nearly K/IP ball, meaning Burnett will be
among the league leaders in Ks, and his ERA and WHIP are average or better because of his great walk and ground ball rates. Will
he win enough games to beat our ranking? We only projected 12
wins, so Burnett will shoot up the rankings if he can win more.
Players with similar stat lines: Jeff Samardzija; Justin Masterson;
Kevin Gausman
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
30
24
31
235.2
188.2
154.1
198.0
18-8
20-5
11-8
13-8
0
0
0
0
198
142
117
146
1.01
1.02
1.14
1.16
2.41
2.81
3.27
3.43
3.20
3.75
3.82
3.73
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
31
30
31
190.1
202.1
191.0
208.0
11-11
16-10
10-11
12-11
0
0
0
0
173
180
209
213
1.43
1.24
1.21
1.27
5.15
3.51
3.30
3.42
4.77
3.52
2.80
3.43
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.4
19.2
18.5
17.7
6.1
6.1
5.8
5.8
0.67
0.84
0.66
0.68
.210
.213
.236
.229
.250
.241
.268
.264
6.3%
8.6%
7.8%
6.5%
7.97
6.15
0.94
0.22
12
18
163
195
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.7
21.2
26.1
24.0
9.9
7.3
8.4
8.1
1.52
2.35
2.33
2.25
.255
.242
.228
.228
.294
.294
.305
.292
17.0%
12.7%
9.1%
12.8%
-1.93
3.22
2.44
0.07
321
72
95
208
Marco Estrada | MIL | Age: 30 | Rk: 44 (196)
Hiroki Kuroda | NYY | Age: 39 | Rk: 47 (210)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Another player we have ranked higher than most, Estrada was a popular breakout candidate last season before faltering from the start.
His 5.32 ERA before the break was ugly, but his 2.15 ERA after the
break was pretty spectacular. Estrada has plus strikeout potential and
above average control, but being a fly ball pitcher in a hitter’s park,
he’s been plagued by HR over the last few years. Estrada makes for
a very low-risk pitcher given his ADP, but there’s some serious upside here if you can weather the ups and downs of a homer-prone SP.
Kuroda is a lot like Weaver in the sense that both have great control with failing strikeout rates, but they’re still very fantasy relevant. Weaver has more upside, but Kuroda is much safer. Kuroda
was a top-25 SP in 2011 and 2012 before falling to 41st last year
as a casuality of New York’s abysmal offense. If the Yankees can
find their stroke again, Kuroda is a candidate to break back into
the top 30, but there’s not a ton of upside here because of his advanced age and low strikeout potential. But still, Kuroda is reliable.
Players with similar stat lines: A.J. Griffin; Jake Peavy;
Andrew Cashner
Players with similar stat lines: Jered Weaver; Drew Smyly;
Hyun-Jin Ryu
2011
2012
2013
2014
43
29
21
29
92.2
138.1
128.0
183.0
4-8
5-7
7-4
11-9
0
0
0
0
88
143
118
172
1.21
1.14
1.08
1.14
4.08
3.64
3.87
3.66
3.67
3.35
3.86
4.28
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
33
32
32
202.0
219.2
201.1
202.0
13-16
16-11
11-13
13-10
0
0
0
0
161
167
150
150
1.21
1.17
1.16
1.19
3.07
3.32
3.31
3.36
3.78
3.86
3.56
3.71
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.1
25.4
23.1
22.7
7.6
5.2
5.7
5.9
0.93
0.76
0.85
0.83
.237
.242
.227
.225
.287
.298
.262
.258
10.3%
10.5%
11.9%
13.2%
-2.58
0.05
-0.58
0.22
378
205
244
196
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.2
18.7
18.2
17.7
5.9
5.7
5.2
5.4
1.24
1.77
1.49
1.54
.250
.246
.246
.238
.287
.281
.282
.275
11.3%
13.0%
10.3%
10.1%
2.73
4.05
1.87
0.02
77
46
124
210
Jake Peavy | BOS | Age: 33 | Rk: 45 (201)
Andrew Cashner | SD | Age: 27 | Rk: 48 (211)
Position: SP
Position: SP/RP
I believe Peavy to be a very underrated fantasy SP. He’s no longer his
Cy Young self and his ERA will probably be around 4.00, but like
A.J. Griffin, Peavy combines a high fly ball rate and a semi-spacious
ballpark with very good control. That means he’ll be sneakily valuable because of his WHIP. Peavy struggles against left-handed batters, but thankfully lefties hit the ball to the deepest part of Fenway,
playing right into Peavy’s strengths. Health is never guaranteed for
the fiery right-hander, but Peavy will have value when he’s pitching.
Players with similar stat lines: A.J. Griffin; Dan Haren;
Marco Estrada
2011
2012
2013
2014
19
32
23
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.2
22.0
20.5
20.7
111.2 7-7
219.0 11-12
144.2 12-5
199.0 13-10
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.0
1.00
0.82
0.70
0.73
Cashner was money down the stretch, posting a 2.14 ERA and 0.95
WHIP while holding opponents to a .193 BA in the 2nd half. Oddly,
though, his 22.4 LD% in the 2nd half was above league average, yet
his .234 BABIP was ridiculously low. Summary: Cashner did a lot of
good, but luck had a large say in the matter, too. While there’s hope
his K% can increase, that’s purely hope. PETCO is his friend and the
Padres are reportedly letting him pitch away in 2014, but I don’t think
there will be enough counting stats to propel Cashner much higher.
Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Beachy; Marco Estrada;
Drew Smyly
0
0
0
0
95
194
121
171
1.26
1.10
1.15
1.15
4.92
3.37
4.17
3.98
3.21
3.73
3.96
3.49
2011
2012
2013
2014
7
33
31
31
.264
.232
.236
.226
.317
.272
.268
.271
7.6%
9.7%
10.1%
7.0%
-2.53
4.09
0.17
0.13
371
45
201
201
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.5
26.5
18.1
19.5
10.2
0-0
46.1
3-4
175.0 10-9
191.0 10-11
10.3
9.7
6.7
6.2
1.78
2.21
1.83
1.88
0
0
0
0
8
52
128
154
0.66
1.32
1.13
1.13
1.69
4.27
3.09
3.38
3.87
3.55
3.35
3.35
.086
.239
.230
.223
.077
.311
.269
.267
11.1%
17.2%
8.1%
9.1%
-5.83
-3.76
1.43
0.00
738
497
145
211
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Kyle Lohse | MIL | Age: 35 | Rk: 49 (213)
Chris Tillman | BAL | Age: 26 | Rk: 52 (219)
Position: SP
Position: SP
When we projected everyone and calculated our rankings, Lohse’s
rank surprised me. Then again, his projected line -- 202 IP, 14 W,
3.53 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 135 K -- is extremely realistic and comparable
to what he does every year. Owning Lohse is guaranteed to be boring, but he gives you a solid Ws with an above average WHIP and
doesn’t hurt you anywhere (except K/9 if you count that). No one on
FantasyPros has Lohse higher than 64 yet his average end-of-season
rank over the last 3 years is 33, highlighting how undervalued he is.
I’m beginning to really like Tillman. While his ERA probably won’t escape the 3.60-3.80 range, he’s a 200-inning workhorse with very good K rates and solid win potential with that
Orioles offense backing him. After the break last year, Tillman
posted a 23.9 K% and 8.56 K/9, and he improved his BB/9 from
3.30 to 2.57. His LD% fell, his GB% improved -- almost every single peripheral (and even most superficial, non-peripherals like ERA) got better in the 2nd half. Believe in Tillman.
Players with similar stat lines: Jered Weaver; Brandon Beachy;
Tim Hudson
2011
2012
2013
2014
30
33
32
33
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.3
16.6
15.5
16.1
188.1 14-8
211.0 16-3
198.2 11-10
202.0 14-10
5.4
4.4
4.5
4.6
1.13
1.14
1.05
1.03
Players with similar stat lines: CC Sabathia; Jon Lester;
Dillon Gee
0
0
0
0
111
143
125
135
1.17
1.09
1.17
1.17
3.39
2.86
3.35
3.53
3.67
3.51
4.08
3.43
2011
2012
2013
2014
13
15
33
33
62.0
86.0
206.1
202.0
3-5
9-3
16-7
15-9
0
0
0
0
46
66
179
180
1.65
1.05
1.22
1.27
5.52
2.93
3.71
3.72
3.99
4.25
4.42
4.22
.244
.234
.256
.243
.269
.262
.276
.280
7.2%
8.2%
10.8%
6.1%
1.66
4.97
1.17
-0.02
120
30
154
213
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.0
19.0
21.2
20.8
8.7
6.9
8.1
7.4
0.84
0.78
0.97
0.91
.298
.205
.238
.236
.348
.221
.269
.276
5.4%
10.7%
14.2%
11.2%
-5.32
-0.33
2.71
-0.16
673
224
87
219
Brandon Beachy | ATL | Age: 27 | Rk: 50 (214)
Dan Haren | LAD | Age: 33 | Rk: 53 (221)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Tommy John surgery delayed Beachy’s 2013 debut and elbow inflammation ended it early. A promising SP back in 2011/2012,
Beachy is now a bundle of potential wrapped in question marks.
Solely because of the recent injuries, Beachy isn’t a very good
play for 2014 -- his IP will almost certainly be limited -- but as
our projection shows, we think he’ll be valuable in the innings
he actually does pitch. Long term, there’s no reason Beachy
can’t get back to where he was before all the elbow issues.
For a 5-year stretch from 2007-2011, Haren was one of the best SP in
fantasy, regularly topping 220 IP with elite ERAs and WHIPs while
holding his own with Ks. Then he fell apart in 2012 and became, well,
a pretty bad pitcher. His ERAs in 2012 and 2013 were 4.33 and 4.67,
and this is the highest I’ve seen him ranked anywhere. I understand
the skepticism -- we have enough concerns to rank Haren 53rd -- but
he did posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in the 2nd half of 2013, and
his K/9 topped 8.00 after two years in the 7.00s. Haren isn’t finished.
Players with similar stat lines: Drew Smyly; Jered Weaver;
Kyle Lohse
Players with similar stat lines: Ervin Santana; Matt Garza;
Jake Peavy
2011
2012
2013
2014
25
13
5
28
141.2
81.0
30.0
175.0
7-3
5-5
2-1
12-1
0
0
0
0
169
68
23
146
1.21
0.96
1.03
1.17
3.68
2.00
4.50
3.41
3.19
3.49
4.08
2.45
2011
2012
2013
2014
35
30
31
31
238.1
176.2
169.2
200.0
16-10
12-13
10-14
13-10
0
0
1
0
192
142
151
175
1.02
1.29
1.24
1.20
3.17
4.33
4.67
3.87
2.98
4.24
4.09
3.75
2011
2012
2013
2014
28.6
21.3
19.2
20.1
7.8
9.1
3.3
5.9
0.75
1.01
1.00
0.91
.231
.170
.233
.235
.307
.200
.250
.299
9.8%
6.7%
13.5%
1.3%
0.28
-0.37
-4.65
-0.03
183
227
600
214
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.2
19.0
21.1
20.8
3.5
5.1
4.3
5.1
1.12
1.00
0.86
0.90
.231
.269
.264
.242
.272
.302
.302
.286
7.5%
12.8%
13.0%
9.8%
5.97
-0.12
2.47
-0.17
24
213
94
221
Drew Smyly | DET | Age: 25 | Rk: 51 (215)
Jon Lester | BOS | Age: 30 | Rk: 54 (227)
Position: SP/RP
Position: SP
The Tigers plan to put Smyly in their rotation this spring, which
means he escapes middle relief purgatory in most fantasy leagues.
As a reliever, Smyly was able to post dominant strikeout rates (9.59
K/9, 26.7 K%), but it’s very unlikely that he maintains anything
close to that with the increased workload of going deeper into
games. I’m not certain Smyly will be able to pitch a ton of innings
in 2014, which is why we have him projected for just 175 IP and
ranked 51st overall, but on a per-IP basis he’ll probably be very good.
Lester is a much better real-life pitcher than he is a fantasy pitcher,
yet somehow I see him consistently ranked in the 20s, 30s, and 40s
among SP. We’re Red Sox fans and we don’t buy it. His strikeout rate
is merely average, his WHIP has never been lower than 1.20 (and it’s
not been under 1.26 in the last 3 years), and even though he pitches
200+ innings most years, that’s not enough innings to turn his average K rate into something significant. We projected 16 W, a 3.68
ERA, and a 1.29 WHIP, and that makes him a borderline top 50 SP.
Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Beachy; Ervin Santana;
Hiroki Kuroda
2011
2012
2013
2014
23
63
34
2011
2012 22.6
2013 26.7
2014 21.4
Players with similar stat lines: CC Sabathia; Chris Tillman;
Matt Moore
99.1
76.0
175.0
4-3
6-0
12-0
0
2
0
94
81
157
1.27
1.04
1.20
3.99
2.37
3.40
3.83
2.31
2.54
2011
2012
2013
2014
31
33
33
33
191.2
205.1
213.1
210.0
15-9
9-14
15-8
16-9
0
0
0
0
182
166
177
178
1.26
1.38
1.29
1.29
3.47
4.82
3.75
3.68
3.83
4.11
3.59
3.69
7.9
5.6
6.9
0.97
1.12
1.12
.244
.218
.231
.295
.290
.300
10.3%
5.3%
2.0%
-2.42
-0.52
-0.04
373
234
215
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.8
19.0
19.6
19.8
9.4
7.8
7.4
7.4
1.50
1.71
1.27
1.39
.233
.269
.252
.239
.286
.312
.300
.288
11.4%
13.9%
8.3%
8.8%
2.62
-1.92
1.78
-0.21
80
337
128
227
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Kevin Gausman | BAL | Age: 23 | Rk: 55 (228)
Jeff Samardzija | CHC | Age: 29 | Rk: 58 (237)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Gausman’s consensus “expert” rank on FantasyPros is 89 and no one
else has him higher than 54. His ERA last year definitely wasn’t encouraging -- 5.66 in 47.2 IP with Baltimore -- but he had an impeccable 24.4 K% and 6.5 BB%, and his FIP (3.99) and xFIP (3.04) indicate his poor performance was small sample size bad luck more than
anything else. Gausman is our number 1 sleeper SP for 2014. He will
almost certainly post good K and walk rates, and the Orioles have
a big need for front-line caliber SP. That’s exactly what Gausman is.
We fully acknowledge Samardzija’s breakout potential. He’s a very
good bet for 200+ K, and his xFIPs have been around 3.40 in each
of the last 2 years, but the reality of the situation is that Samardzija
is a talented strikeout pitcher on a bad team who has a slight tendency to walk batters. While his peripherals (GB%, K%) are definitely going in the right direction, we can’t ignore his weaknesses.
He’ll post an average WHIP and average ERA with a below average
win total (probably), and the Ks just don’t do enough on their own.
Players with similar stat lines: Ervin Santana; Corey Kluber;
Dan Haren
2011
2012
2013
2014
20
29
2011
2012
2013 24.4
2014 24.0
47.2
3-5
178.0 12-11
6.5
7.0
1.28
1.22
Players with similar stat lines: A.J. Burnett; Kevin Gausman;
Alex Wood
0
0
49
182
1.34
1.26
5.66
3.45
3.99
4.25
2011
2012
2013
2014
75
28
33
33
.271
.243
.328
.289
18.6%
17.6%
-4.72
-0.21
613
228
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.9
24.9
23.4
24.0
88.0
8-4
174.2 9-13
213.2 8-13
206.0 11-10
13.2
7.8
8.5
8.0
1.00
1.35
1.53
1.46
0
0
0
0
87
180
214
211
1.30
1.22
1.35
1.26
2.97
3.81
4.34
3.64
3.66
3.55
3.77
3.30
.197
.237
.254
.228
.253
.296
.314
.294
5.3%
12.8%
13.3%
9.1%
-0.04
1.22
-0.64
-0.36
205
143
246
237
CC Sabathia | NYY | Age: 33 | Rk: 56 (230)
Derek Holland | TEX | Age: 27 | Rk: 59 (244)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Despite the decline, Sabathia will still pitch 200+ innings and
win a good amount of games, but his velocity fell drastically for the 2nd straight season and he got worse as the year wore
on. The only reason he ranks above a guy like Jeff Samardzija is because Sabathia has name value and has earned a little
faith from us. The Yankees as a whole had an awful 2013 season, so maybe with a new year and a whole offseason to work
on a new approach, Sabathia can put things back together.
With a 3.42 ERA across 213 IP last year, I expected more “experts” to be higher on Holland than they apparently are -- his
consensus rank at FantasyPros is just 77! Holland’s strikeout
rate should take another small step forward in 2014, but his
2nd-half 3.92 ERA definitely gives us pause. There’s enough talent here for Holland to be average again in ERA and WHIP, and
he’ll almost certainly pitch a bunch of innings. Combined with
Texas’ offense, that could mean a 16+ win season and 180+ K.
Players with similar stat lines: Chris Tillman; Jon Lester;
Matt Moore
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
28
32
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.4
23.7
19.3
20.6
237.1 19-8
200.0 15-6
211.0 14-13
212.0 15-10
6.2
5.3
7.2
7.0
1.54
1.57
1.35
1.39
Players with similar stat lines: Chris Tillman; Matt Moore;
Jon Lester
0
0
0
0
230
197
175
187
1.23
1.14
1.37
1.28
3.00
3.38
4.78
3.72
2.88
3.33
4.10
3.52
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
29
33
33
198.0
175.1
213.0
206.0
16-5
12-7
10-9
14-8
0
0
0
0
162
145
189
184
1.35
1.22
1.29
1.28
3.95
4.67
3.42
3.67
3.94
4.75
3.44
3.92
.251
.236
.267
.242
.318
.288
.308
.295
8.4%
12.5%
13.0%
9.1%
5.85
4.44
-0.74
-0.23
26
39
249
230
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.2
19.9
21.1
20.8
8.0
7.1
7.2
7.2
1.38
1.08
1.12
1.13
.261
.240
.254
.241
.305
.261
.307
.287
11.0%
15.2%
8.8%
10.8%
1.12
0.08
1.28
-0.46
136
203
148
244
Ervin Santana | FA | Age: 31 | Rk: 57 (232)
Tim Hudson | SF | Age: 38 | Rk: 60 (249)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Though Santana doesn’t have a home yet, that’s not for lack of
skill. Santana has had some rough spots in his career -- that’s to
be expected from a fly ball pitcher -- but he’s a consistent bet for
200 IP. We don’t expect Santana to post a 1.14 WHIP again -- we
have him at 1.18 -- but that’s entirely contingent upon his ability to replicate the great walk rate. He was consistent all year
in that department, so we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.
He’s not as high as Kyle Lohse, but Hudson is useful in a very
similar way. Should he stay healthy enough to pitch the 181 innings we project, Hudson will deliver a solid ERA and WHIP
over a sizeable innings total. Most of the guys ranked this low
hurt you in one of those 2 rate categories, so back-end ratestat stability is what Hudson brings to the table. He’s a ground
ball pitcher, but calling spacious San Francisco home will help
him bounce back after back-to-back disappointing seasons.
Players with similar stat lines: Drew Smyly; Dan Haren;
Kevin Gausman
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
30
32
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.8
17.4
18.7
18.4
228.2 11-12
178.0 9-13
211.0 9-10
213.0 12-10
7.6
8.0
5.9
6.8
1.15
1.16
1.41
1.28
Players with similar stat lines: Kyle Lohse; John Lackey;
Ervin Santana
0
0
0
0
178
133
161
164
1.22
1.27
1.14
1.18
3.38
5.16
3.24
3.67
4.00
5.63
3.93
3.86
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
28
21
29
.238
.238
.237
.226
.272
.241
.267
.262
10.1%
18.9%
12.4%
9.6%
2.22
-1.88
1.95
-0.24
95
333
118
232
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.9
13.6
17.8
17.4
215.0 16-10
179.0 16-7
131.1 8-7
181.0 14-10
6.3
6.4
6.7
6.8
2.29
2.20
2.10
2.15
0
0
0
0
158
102
95
133
1.14
1.21
1.19
1.22
3.22
3.62
3.97
3.56
3.39
3.78
3.46
3.28
.232
.243
.242
.230
.273
.270
.281
.276
8.7%
8.3%
9.5%
6.0%
3.84
1.53
-1.46
-0.55
55
133
292
249
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Matt Moore | TB | Age: 25 | Rk: 61 (253)
Corey Kluber | CLE | Age: 28 | Rk: 64 (265)
Position: SP
Position: SP/RP
No, we didn’t forget to rank Moore. I understand the excitement
of owning the Rays’ young SP (the guy who’s supposed to take
over as ace when David Price leaves) but we have collectively decided we don’t like Moore. Not right now. He’s clearly a better upside play than almost anyone else ranked in this range, but we
think he’ll finish with a 3.67 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, and this is where
someone with those numbers belongs. His FIPs have been over
3.90 in the last 2 years, and he can’t get the walks under control.
I was all over Kluber last season as my fantasy team was making a
playoff push. What will be most telling about Kluber’s 2014 season
is how much control he displays early on. We projected him for a
1.25 WHIP, which is a hair better than last year’s, but maintaining
a walk rate as low as 2013’s 5.4% is going to be difficult. We expect
a lower OBA to drive his WHIP. Watch out for the HR allowed as
Kluber received some bad luck there. He could really break out
with a 14 W, 3.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP season a distinct possibility.
Players with similar stat lines: CC Sabathia; Jon Lester;
C.J. Wilson
2011
2012
2013
2014
3
31
27
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
37.5
23.1
22.3
21.9
9.1
1-0
177.1 11-11
150.1 17-4
201.0 15-7
7.5
10.7
11.8
10.1
1.13
0.87
0.93
0.87
Players with similar stat lines: John Lackey; Dillon Gee;
Alex Wood
0
0
0
0
15
175
143
191
1.29
1.35
1.30
1.33
2.89
3.81
3.29
3.67
2.17
3.93
3.95
3.94
2011
2012
2013
2014
3
12
26
30
4.1
63.0
147.1
180.0
0-0
2-5
11-5
12-9
0
0
0
0
5
54
136
168
2.08
1.49
1.26
1.25
8.31
5.14
3.85
3.72
4.18
4.29
3.30
3.51
.243
.235
.212
.225
.381
.293
.259
.277
12.5%
8.6%
8.0%
8.0%
-5.55
0.54
2.04
-0.58
696
179
114
253
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.0
19.2
22.4
22.0
12.0
6.4
5.4
5.6
1.25
1.36
1.60
1.55
.300
.293
.268
.247
.400
.342
.329
.302
0.0%
13.4%
12.4%
12.4%
-6.31
-4.87
-0.05
-0.98
834
613
210
265
John Lackey | BOS | Age: 35 | Rk: 62 (259)
Taijuan Walker | SEA | Age: 21 | Rk: 65 (268)
Position: SP
Position: SP
In 2011, Lackey posted one of the worst seasons in baseball history
(6.41 ERA), missed all of 2012, and then became a leader of Boston’s scrappy pitching staff en route to a 47th ranked season among
SP. Sorry, but we’re not totally buying it. Yes, Lackey is back, but he’s
an average strikeout pitcher whose 3.86 FIP and 4.35 2nd-half ERA
are more indicative of his true skill level. He should post an average WHIP due to some very nice walk rates, but you probably only
want Lackey as a spot starter unless you’re in a very deep league.
Players with similar stat lines: Dillon Gee; Corey Kluber;
Tim Hudson
2011
2012
2013
2014
28
29
30
2011 14.5
2012
2013 20.7
2014 18.3
160.0 12-12
189.1 10-13
194.0 14-11
7.5
5.1
5.8
1.08
1.34
1.27
Walker is as much unknown as he is exciting, but there will be plenty of people targeting him aggressively because of what SP like Julio Teheran have done. Playing for an improved Mariners team in a
great pitcher’s park, Walker has everything breaking right for him.
He has definite high-strikeout potential, posting K rates over 26%
in the minors last year, but we think his strikeout rate will develop a little more slowly. From our projected ERA and WHIP, though,
you can see we like Walker. He makes for a great late-round target.
Players with similar stat lines: Alexi Ogando; Wandy Rodriguez;
Clay Buchholz
0
0
0
108
161
151
1.62
1.16
1.24
6.41
3.52
3.76
4.71
3.86
3.79
2011
2012
2013
2014
.304
.245
.243
.339
.281
.283
9.7%
13.3%
9.5%
-4.91
1.45
-0.79
630
143
259
2011
2012
2013 20.0
2014 18.0
3
27
15.0
171.0
1-0
11-0
0
0
12
129
1.00
1.19
3.60
3.45
2.25
2.52
6.7
7.0
0.94
0.82
.196
.231
.250
.291
0.0%
0.0%
-6.13
-1.05
822
268
Dillon Gee | NYM | Age: 28 | Rk: 63 (263)
C.J. Wilson | LAA | Age: 33 | Rk: 66 (269)
Position: SP
Position: SP
A popular sleeper before last season, Gee got off to a terrible
start. While his end-of-year numbers are uninspiring, he did
tally 199 IP by season’s end and his 2.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP
in the 2nd half are extremely encouraging (as is his gain in velocity as the year wore on). We only projected a 3.76 ERA
and 1.26 WHIP from Gee, which would be right in line with
what he did last year, but I would target him more aggressively than that projected line suggests. There’s a lot of upside here.
I’ve never been a fan of Wilson, but it’s worth mentioning that
he did finish 11th among SP in 2011 and 29th last year, but
it’s his 50th-ranked 2012 season that seems much more likely
to us, and the influx of young talent pushes him lower. Frankly, with Wilson’s poor control, he won’t post a good WHIP, and
he had a touch too much HR luck last year (7.2% HR/FB) for
us to feel confident projecting a repeat. He’s good for 200+ IP
and 170+ Ks, but his ERA and WHIP will be average or worse.
Players with similar stat lines: John Lackey; Corey Kluber;
Chris Tillman
2011
2012
2013
2014
30
17
32
33
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.2
21.0
16.9
18.9
160.2 13-6
109.2 6-7
199.0 12-11
204.0 14-7
10.1
6.3
5.6
5.7
1.43
1.70
1.13
1.21
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Moore; CC Sabathia;
Jon Lester
0
0
0
0
114
97
142
165
1.38
1.25
1.28
1.26
4.43
4.10
3.62
3.76
4.65
3.71
4.00
3.54
2011
2012
2013
2014
34
34
33
33
.242
.252
.264
.246
.270
.301
.296
.293
11.1%
12.8%
10.1%
7.8%
-1.20
-1.88
0.53
-0.93
266
334
179
263
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.5
20.0
20.6
20.2
223.1 16-7
202.1 13-10
212.1 17-7
205.0 15-9
8.1
10.5
9.3
9.5
1.55
1.68
1.33
1.42
0
0
0
0
206
173
188
180
1.19
1.34
1.34
1.36
2.94
3.83
3.39
3.48
3.24
4.04
3.51
3.67
.230
.236
.244
.234
.287
.281
.300
.289
8.2%
10.8%
7.2%
7.5%
4.96
0.98
2.70
-1.09
34
156
88
269
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Jarrod Parker | OAK | Age: 25 | Rk: 67 (272)
Wandy Rodriguez | PIT | Age: 35 | Rk: 70 (282)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Parker is tumbling down our rankings. I was bullish on him prior
to last year, but early struggles turned me off, and when he turned
things around (for 1 month at least -- August), his value was limited because he refused to strike people out (16.4 K% last year).
Parker probably isn’t going to emerge as an average strikeout
pitcher, so he needs to follow in the footsteps of someone like Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda’s walk rate is much more elite and he’s proven he can consistently turn batted balls into outs. Parker hasn’t yet.
Rodriguez missed most of 2013 with forearm stiffness, but even
when he’s on the hill he’s lost his strikeout prowess. Formerly fanning batters at over 8.00 K/9, Rodriguez has now settled into the
6.00s with some pretty good walk rates. In terms of ERA and WHIP,
he’s still the same guy that he’s always been, but without above average K totals it’ll be difficult for Rodriguez to have value. He ranked
40th and 56th in 2011 and 2012, but we projecting he falls short of
those ranks in 2014 because of the relative strength of the position.
Players with similar stat lines: Dillon Gee; Rick Porcello;
John Lackey
2011
2012
2013
2014
1
29
32
32
2011 4.6
2012 18.6
2013 16.4
2014 16.7
Players with similar stat lines: Alexi Ogando; Taijuan Walker;
Alex Wood
5.2
181.1
197.0
199.0
0-0
13-8
12-8
14-7
0
0
0
0
1
140
134
143
0.88
1.26
1.22
1.29
0.00
3.47
3.97
3.41
3.20
3.43
4.40
3.97
2011
2012
2013
2014
30
34
12
32
4.6
8.4
7.7
7.9
0.60
1.47
1.04
1.09
.190
.242
.238
.236
.200
.290
.260
.272
0.0%
6.8%
10.5%
7.3%
-6.14
1.45
0.30
-1.13
779
134
189
272
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.5
15.9
17.7
17.7
191.0 11-11
205.2 12-13
62.2
6-4
195.0 11-10
8.5
6.4
4.6
5.9
1.30
1.52
1.09
1.27
0
0
0
0
166
139
46
145
1.31
1.27
1.12
1.21
3.49
3.76
3.59
3.70
4.15
3.93
4.42
3.55
.248
.251
.238
.237
.289
.280
.255
.278
13.0%
10.1%
13.2%
7.2%
0.93
0.78
-2.81
-1.42
142
170
402
282
Alex Wood | ATL | Age: 23 | Rk: 68 (273)
Alexi Ogando | TEX | Age: 30 | Rk: 71 (283)
Position: SP/RP
Position: SP/RP
I absolutely love Wood, but I don’t like his IP potential for 2014.
On a per-IP basis, I think he could be a lot like Cole Hamels, who
I also love, but I’m not sure he’ll even get to the 165 IP we projected. The Braves reportedly haven’t decided if Wood will be a SP or
RP this year, but I really can’t imagine them leaving him out of the
rotation after he dominated in that role before a pair of blow-ups
in early September. Wood combines a good ground ball rate with
good K rates, and he displayed very good control in the minors.
Players with similar stat lines: Jose Quintana; Tyson Ross;
Corey Kluber
2011
2012
2013
2014
31
28
2011
2012
2013 23.6
2014 23.1
Ogando is tough to peg because he’s never really had a
definite role with the Rangers, but his talent is intriguing. For the most part, he displays good control with average strikeout stuff, and he’ll almost certainly be average (or a little better) in WHIP. Unfortunately, he won’t
pitch a ton of innings (we say 165). I’m not in love with
his slight fly ball tendencies in Arlington, but his career
trends indicate our projected line is completely reasonable.
Players with similar stat lines: Taijuan Walker; Wandy Rodriguez;
Clay Buchholz
77.2
165.0
3-3
11-8
0
0
77
164
1.33
1.30
3.13
3.32
2.65
2.58
2011
2012
2013
2014
31
58
23
30
169.0
66.0
104.1
165.0
13-8
2-0
7-4
10-8
0
3
0
0
126
66
72
129
1.14
1.00
1.23
1.19
3.51
3.27
3.11
3.57
3.65
3.73
4.36
3.62
8.3
7.7
1.80
1.78
.254
.241
.333
.320
5.1%
3.6%
-3.17
-1.22
438
273
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.2
25.1
16.8
18.6
6.2
6.5
9.6
6.4
0.91
0.90
0.98
0.93
.232
.201
.228
.229
.265
.237
.254
.270
7.8%
12.3%
8.7%
6.8%
1.62
-2.77
-1.75
-1.43
122
402
315
283
Jose Quintana | CHW | Age: 25 | Rk: 69 (279)
Francisco Liriano | PIT | Age: 30 | Rk: 72 (288)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Quintana is a low-ceiling fantasy fill-in, but let’s not rob
him of all his glory -- he did manage a 1.22 ERA over 200
IP last season. Unfortunately, there’s very little strikeout upside, he’ll struggle to rack up wins playing for the
White Sox, and his home park will only serve to keep him
down. You probably have little interest in drafting Quintana (I’d rather fill out my rotation with upside rookies), but you’ll definitely add him at some point in 2014.
I know, I know, you don’t agree with this rank. Well, when I look
at Liriano, I see a guy who never pitches a ton of innings, whose
walk rates are below average at best, and who you just can’t count
on. Sure, you can bank on his strikeout rate -- about a K/IP -- but
do you really think Liriano is a 16-game winner? A 13-game winner? His 3.95 2nd-half ERA is more than worrisome, and though
I agree that he’s a better high-upside pick than, say, Alexi Ogando, I disagree that our projection paints him in an unfair light.
Players with similar stat lines: Alex Wood; Tyson Ross;
Corey Kluber
2011
2012
2013
2014
25
33
33
2011
2012 14.3
2013 19.7
2014 19.9
136.1 6-6
200.0 9-7
198.0 10-12
7.4
6.7
6.5
1.52
1.14
1.08
Players with similar stat lines: Rick Porcello; Erik Johnson;
Dan Straily
0
0
0
81
164
167
1.35
1.22
1.25
3.76
3.51
3.48
4.23
3.82
3.25
2011
2012
2013
2014
26
34
26
28
.272
.244
.243
.299
.283
.298
10.5%
10.2%
6.3%
-2.47
0.87
-1.35
377
165
279
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.0
24.1
24.5
23.3
134.1 9-10
156.2 6-12
161.0 16-8
172.0 12-10
12.7
12.6
9.5
9.4
1.35
1.26
1.99
1.66
0
0
0
0
112
167
163
174
1.49
1.47
1.22
1.33
5.09
5.34
3.02
3.65
4.54
4.34
2.92
3.65
.246
.239
.222
.226
.290
.300
.290
.288
9.9%
12.9%
8.3%
11.0%
-3.15
-3.28
3.09
-1.53
435
444
69
288
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Clay Buchholz | BOS | Age: 29 | Rk: 73 (289)
Tyson Ross | SD | Age: 27 | Rk: 76 (302)
Position: SP
Position: SP/RP
In any given start or for any given short stretch of time, Buchholz can be among the game’s best SP, but banking on a full season of production is foolhardy. Last year Buchholz was sidelined
for 2 months and admitted that if it was September, he could have
toughed it out and pitched. So just because it’s July and August the
games don’t mean as much, even as your team is in a playoff battle? Maturity and toughness aren’t part of Buchholz’s makeup, and
you won’t find someone as unreliable as him on my fantasy team.
I’ve heard a lot of people clammoring about Ross this spring. After beginning the year as a RP for the Padres, he made his way
to the rotation and actually increase his K% from 17.3 as a RP to
25.7 as a SP. His ERA as a member of the rotation was 3.06, which
sat right between his 2.92 FIP and 3.22 xFIP. He’s a ground ball
pitcher with good K rates, a very good slider, and great velocity pitching in a favorable home park. Even though Ross isn’t flying under very many radars, he’s definitely someone to target.
Players with similar stat lines: Alexi Ogando; Taijuan Walker;
Wandy Rodriguez
Players with similar stat lines: Jose Quintana; Alex Wood;
Erik Johnson
2011
2012
2013
2014
14
29
16
24
82.2
189.1
108.1
145.0
6-3
11-8
12-1
10-4
0
0
0
0
60
129
96
118
1.29
1.33
1.02
1.26
3.48
4.56
1.74
2.99
4.34
4.65
2.78
4.30
2011
2012
2013
2014
9
18
35
35
36.0
73.1
125.0
178.0
3-3
2-11
3-8
10-7
0
0
0
0
24
46
119
159
1.28
1.81
1.15
1.30
2.75
6.50
3.17
3.39
3.14
4.80
3.20
3.46
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.0
16.1
23.1
19.0
8.8
8.0
8.7
8.3
1.31
1.45
1.50
1.50
.238
.258
.198
.225
.264
.283
.254
.259
10.1%
13.0%
4.5%
12.2%
-2.59
-1.31
2.15
-1.56
380
288
108
289
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.6
13.5
23.6
20.7
9.0
10.8
8.7
8.3
1.56
1.84
1.85
1.88
.250
.320
.221
.231
.299
.360
.282
.287
3.1%
10.4%
8.2%
7.8%
-3.95
-6.86
-1.28
-1.86
525
918
286
302
Dan Straily | OAK | Age: 25 | Rk: 74 (290)
Erik Johnson | CHW | Age: 24 | Rk: 77 (305)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Straily was solid in his 152.1 IP last year. His 3.96 ERA and 1.24
WHIP were more or less average -- in fact, everything about him
was average. But average isn’t always bad. In fact, 186 IP of average
makes you the 73rd-best SP in our 2014 rankings. Though we projected Straily’s WHIP to rise from 1.24 to 1.28 due to a little less batted ball luck, he has a history of better walk rates in the minors and
could end up surprising us with a 1.20 WHIP or better if he can improve his control and again see extra fly balls find fielders’ gloves.
Johnson has been one of my favorite sleeper SP this season,
and I’ve heard his name in a few other places so clearly I’m not
alone. His 14.1 K% in very limited time with the White Sox
last year belies his 25%+ rates in the minors, and Johnson induces enough grounders to potentially escape the U.S. Cellular HR trap. The White Sox are in need of SP, and Johnson has
risen quickly through their system with success at every level. He makes for one of 2014’s best late-round sleeper targets.
Players with similar stat lines: Rick Porcello; Francisco Liriano;
Dillon Gee
2011
2012
2013
2014
7
27
32
2011
2012 18.6
2013 19.4
2014 19.4
39.1
2-1
152.1 10-8
186.0 13-11
9.3
8.9
8.5
0.55
0.84
0.76
Players with similar stat lines: Rick Porcello; Josh Johnson;
Wei-Yin Chen
0
0
0
32
124
155
1.32
1.24
1.28
3.89
3.96
3.88
6.48
4.05
4.23
2011
2012
2013
2014
.234
.229
.228
.225
.266
.266
16.7%
8.2%
8.8%
-4.26
-0.57
-1.57
549
242
290
2011
2012
2013 14.1
2014 20.1
5
29
27.2
181.0
3-2
12-9
0
0
18
158
1.55
1.34
3.25
3.50
5.40
4.17
8.6
7.6
1.32
1.30
.276
.247
.290
.290
14.7%
12.0%
-4.82
-1.99
628
305
Rick Porcello | DET | Age: 25 | Rk: 75 (296)
Jake Odorizzi | TB | Age: 24 | Rk: 78 (307)
Position: SP/RP
Position: SP/RP
Porcello is often touted as the next Homer Bailey, the SP who debuted early and spent years slowly getting better before breaking
out. That’s a very definite possibility, and Porcello made a huge leap
with his strikeout rate last year, but he still allows a lot of line drives,
leading to a below average OBA. Though Porcello’s ERA was better in the 2nd half last year (3.71 vs. 4.80), his peripherals took a
small downward turn. I want to be clear that I’m not writing him
off, but it’ll take a similarly large jump for him to break out in 2014.
With news that Jeremy Hellickson underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in January, Odorizzi finally has a rotation spot! This projection is only based on 131 IP since
the Rays have a very crowded rotation, but I’d imagine
that with Hellickson’s recent struggles, if Odorizzi pitches well he’ll be able to hold down a spot for the long term.
If you’re looking to buy stock in a potential top-30 SP right
now, Odorizzi is one of the 1st guys that you should look at.
Players with similar stat lines: Dan Straily; Erik Johnson;
Francisco Liriano
2011
2012
2013
2014
31
31
32
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
13.3
13.7
19.3
18.9
182.0 14-9
176.1 10-12
177.0 13-8
187.0 13-9
5.9
5.6
5.7
5.7
1.73
2.36
2.34
2.30
Players with similar stat lines: Alexi Ogando; Clay Buchholz;
Bartolo Colon
0
0
0
0
104
107
142
152
1.41
1.53
1.28
1.31
4.75
4.59
4.32
3.71
4.06
3.91
3.53
3.39
2011
2012
2013
2014
.288
.308
.268
.257
.316
.344
.315
.309
9.9%
11.5%
14.1%
10.4%
-1.91
-3.54
-0.15
-1.76
320
474
218
296
2011
2012 11.8
2013 18.0
2014 18.8
2
7
28
7.1
29.2
131.0
0-1
0-1
10-4
0
1
0
4
22
103
1.64
1.21
1.20
4.91
3.94
3.54
5.41
3.89
4.63
11.8
6.6
6.2
0.58
0.76
0.81
.267
.250
.232
.280
.287
.255
8.3%
7.9%
12.4%
-6.82
-6.51
-2.01
911
900
307
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Brandon McCarthy | ARI | Age: 30 | Rk: 79 (310)
Bartolo Colon | NYM | Age: 41 | Rk: 82 (327)
Position: SP
Position: SP
The 116 K we project from McCarthy definitely aren’t exciting, but he did rank 42nd in 2011 with the Athletics. McCarthy has had a tough time staying on the field (not his fault,
mind you), but he’s one of the game’s elite control-first,
ground ball starters and has posted a WHIP as low as 1.13.
If I recall, he even made an SI cover for his newfound approach. You won’t get counting stats here, but you’ll get some
potentially above average rate stats on a spot start basis.
Players with similar stat lines: Bronson Arroyo; Bartolo Colon;
Dan Straily
2011
2012
2013
2014
25
18
22
30
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.8
15.6
13.2
15.1
170.2 9-9
111.0 8-6
135.0 5-11
181.0 13-10
3.6
5.1
3.6
4.9
1.45
1.15
1.78
1.48
Wow, talk about a weird season. After ranking 67th and 69th in 2011
and 2012, Colon re-emerged and posted the 12th-best fantasy line
among SP in 2013. We don’t buy it and neither do you, but you might
think Colon has more value than he really does. Stop it. His 2.65
ERA was a full 33% lower than his 3.95 xFIP, and while Citi Field
isn’t a HR-friendly venue, Colon will definitely post a HR/FB rate
higher than 6.0%. Limiting walks is great, but Colon’s K% is even
lower than Arroyo’s! Ranking him inside the top 60-70 is ludicrous.
Players with similar stat lines: Brandon McCarthy; Bronson Arroyo;
Jaime Garcia
0
0
0
0
123
73
76
116
1.13
1.25
1.35
1.24
3.32
3.24
4.53
3.88
2.86
3.76
3.75
4.15
2011
2012
2013
2014
29
24
30
31
.253
.262
.292
.248
.296
.295
.320
.274
6.4%
8.1%
10.3%
11.5%
0.91
-1.22
-4.02
-2.07
145
280
521
310
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.5
14.3
15.2
14.5
164.1 8-10
152.1 10-9
190.1 18-6
182.0 12-10
5.8
3.6
3.8
3.9
1.22
1.26
1.09
1.17
0
0
0
0
135
91
117
112
1.29
1.21
1.17
1.25
4.00
3.43
2.65
3.60
3.83
3.82
3.23
3.86
.264
.263
.261
.263
.305
.286
.294
.293
11.4%
9.1%
6.0%
8.4%
-0.95
-0.03
3.77
-2.38
248
208
55
327
Bronson Arroyo | ARI | Age: 37 | Rk: 80 (313)
Josh Johnson | SD | Age: 30 | Rk: 83 (335)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Arroyo has started no fewer than 32 games for 9 straight seasons
and is tied with Dan Haren for most starts over that span (297).
He’s had an ERA between 3.74-3.88 in 4 of the last 5 years, and his
walk rate just keeps getting better. He’s posted a WHIP of 1.21 or
lower in 3 of the last 4 years, despite changing teams this year, Arroyo just won’t go away. He’s not super-relevant because the only
thing lower than his walk rate is his strikeout rate (sarcasm), but I
guarantee you’ll think about adding him at some point in 2014.
Johnson is intriguing because of where he now calls home: PETCO Park. His elbow reportedly “feels great” and even in his awful
half-season with Toronto last year he was able to strike out more
than a batter per inning, but a ridiculous 18.5% HR/FB rate and
.356 BABIP did him him. Those are completely ridiculous, unsustainably bad rates. While Johnson is assuredly going to be a
fantasy-relevant SP in 2014, “How relevant?” is the question we
now must ask ourselves. You have to keep an eye on him, though.
Players with similar stat lines: Brandon McCarthy; Bartolo Colon;
Dan Straily
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
32
32
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
12.6
15.5
15.1
14.6
199.0 9-12
202.0 12-10
202.0 14-12
200.0 13-10
5.3
4.2
4.1
4.0
0.91
1.11
1.26
1.13
Players with similar stat lines: Joe Kelly; Wei-Yin Chen;
Wade Miley
0
0
0
0
108
129
124
123
1.37
1.21
1.15
1.22
5.07
3.74
3.79
4.04
5.71
4.08
4.49
4.07
2011
2012
2013
2014
9
31
16
28
.282
.263
.254
.255
.278
.286
.267
.279
15.9%
10.6%
14.0%
9.5%
-3.33
1.14
1.43
-2.10
452
147
144
313
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.9
20.7
21.6
21.9
60.1
3-1
191.1 8-14
81.1
2-8
167.0 11-14
8.6
8.2
7.8
7.7
1.49
1.53
1.47
1.49
0
0
0
0
56
165
83
160
0.98
1.28
1.66
1.38
1.64
3.81
6.20
3.56
2.64
3.40
4.62
3.51
.183
.247
.299
.253
.239
.302
.356
.317
3.8%
8.4%
18.5%
9.9%
-1.89
0.23
-6.04
-2.57
317
196
809
335
Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | Age: 30 | Rk: 81 (318)
Yovani Gallardo | MIL | Age: 28 | Rk: 84 (338)
Position: SP
Position: SP
A dominant strikeout pitcher who finally found a home, Jimenez’s
rank takes a hit because he’s the first guy in our rankings with a WHIP
over 1.40. Even last year when Jimenez was his old self (referring to
that great 1st half he had in 2010), he still posted a 1.33 WHIP. I will
fully, 100% acknowledge that for any given month or set of months,
Jimenez could be a top 20 SP, but he has never consistently pitched
well for a full season. Even last year when he ranked 16th among
SP, his his xFIP was 3.64 and he walked nearly 4.00 batters per 9 IP.
Gallardo was a top 30 SP in 2011 and 2012 before falling to 86th last
year, and that’s right where we have him for 2014. He’s lost 2 mph
off his velocity over the last 2 years and no longer posts elite strikeout rates, and in only 1 of his last 5 years has he posted a WHIP
under 1.30. Without the Ks, there isn’t a ton of value to Gallardo.
He’ll toss 185+ IP, could post a mid-3.00s ERA with some luck, and
Milwaukee’s offense looks improved enough to give him an outside shot at a 15 or 16 W season, but that’s mostly wishful thinking.
Players with similar stat lines: Yovani Gallardo; Erik Johnson;
C.J. Wilson
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
31
32
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.9
17.8
25.0
22.8
188.1 10-13
176.2 9-17
182.2 13-9
185.0 13-11
9.5
11.8
10.3
9.6
1.42
1.00
1.21
1.15
Players with similar stat lines: Wei-Yin Chen; Tyler Skaggs;
Josh Johnson
0
0
0
0
180
143
194
187
1.40
1.61
1.33
1.43
4.68
5.40
3.30
3.52
3.67
5.06
3.43
3.69
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
33
31
32
.253
.271
.235
.243
.314
.309
.304
.310
9.3%
11.8%
9.0%
8.2%
-1.22
-4.61
1.98
-2.18
267
589
115
318
2011
2012
2013
2014
23.9
23.7
18.6
20.1
207.1 17-10
204.0 16-9
180.2 12-10
194.0 13-10
6.8
9.4
8.5
8.4
1.28
1.51
1.78
1.65
0
0
0
0
207
204
144
170
1.22
1.30
1.36
1.37
3.52
3.66
4.18
3.89
3.59
3.94
3.89
3.78
.240
.237
.256
.248
.291
.290
.299
.301
12.7%
14.9%
11.9%
10.7%
3.93
2.96
-0.76
-2.59
52
84
250
338
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Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | Age: 28 | Rk: 85 (341)
Joe Kelly | STL | Age: 26 | Rk: 88 (345)
Position: SP
Position: SP/RP
On a per-IP basis, Chen’s 2012 and 2013 seasons were pretty similar. He saw his WHIP rise last year as his BABIP corrected itself, so that’s the level of production that we’ll project
going forward (that is, until Chen shows us something else).
Assuming health, he should stay in the Baltimore rotation
all season and approach 200 IP. While his ERA and WHIP
will probably be a little below average, 190+ quality innings
carries weight on its own, and 150+ K isn’t a terrible total.
I was surprised to learn that Kelly has the best average fastball velocity of any Cardinals SP, yet he easily has the lowest strikeout
rate. A rotation spot isn’t assured, but I think Kelly beats out Lance
Lynn in the spring and locks down a job. Kelly’s walk rate isn’t
that great, merely league average, and a below average K% leaves
him in the “hurts you in WHIP” category, so he’ll either need to
rack up more Ks, post a great ERA, luck into some Ws, get lucky,
or have some combination of the 4 to do much better than this.
Players with similar stat lines: Tyler Skaggs; Joe Kelly;
Josh Johnson
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
23
32
2011
2012 18.8
2013 18.2
2014 18.3
192.2 12-11
137.0 7-7
192.0 12-9
7.0
6.8
6.5
0.88
0.84
0.76
Players with similar stat lines: Wade Miley; Tyler Skaggs;
Wei-Yin Chen
0
0
0
154
104
152
1.26
1.32
1.32
4.02
4.07
3.88
4.42
4.04
3.19
2011
2012
2013
2014
.246
.267
.255
.274
.305
.309
11.7%
9.9%
5.1%
0.79
-2.31
-2.72
169
356
341
2011
2012 16.4
2013 14.9
2014 18.6
24
37
31
107.0
124.0
181.0
5-7
10-5
11-8
0
0
0
75
79
146
1.38
1.35
1.34
3.53
2.69
3.71
4.00
4.01
3.16
7.9
8.3
8.2
1.88
1.81
1.79
.268
.257
.242
.306
.289
.300
11.0%
8.9%
4.6%
-2.75
-0.87
-2.84
399
258
345
Tyler Skaggs | LAA | Age: 22 | Rk: 86 (343)
Jeremy Hellickson | TB | Age: 27 | Rk: 89 (351)
Position: SP
Position: SP/RP
Skaggs has generated some buzz over the last 2 years. Now a
member of the Angels, Skaggs finds himself with a rotation
spot in a better pitcher’s park, and he’s set to show us what
he can do. For the most part Skaggs appears to be a moderately high strikeout starter, but his velocity isn’t great,
so I’ll take a more wait-and-see approach there. His ability to control the free passes, something he struggled with
at all levels in 2013, could dictate how quickly he develops.
He does exist! Hellickson has fallen hard over the last 2 seasons,
underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in January, and now
finds his job security non-existent (I really like Jake Odorizzi).
When he gets back and is fully ready to withstand the rigors of
getting lit up by opposing offenses, I have to think Hellickson
will find his way into the rotation, but I’m not sure for whom.
It could be a rocky journey back as the slumping SP waits for
someone else to falter (Chris Archer?) before he gets his shot.
Players with similar stat lines: Wei-Yin Chen; Joe Kelly;
Josh Johnson
2011
2012
2013
2014
6
7
29
2011
2012 15.8
2013 21.2
2014 19.8
29.1
1-3
38.2
2-3
171.0 12-10
9.8
8.8
8.8
0.71
1.27
1.05
Players with similar stat lines: Miguel Gonzalez; Bruce Chen;
Mike Leake
0
0
0
21
36
148
1.47
1.37
1.36
5.83
5.12
3.78
5.86
4.86
4.57
2011
2012
2013
2014
29
31
32
32
.254
.248
.238
.264
.282
.274
13.3%
17.1%
12.6%
-5.30
-5.02
-2.78
664
647
343
2011
2012
2013
2014
15.1
16.7
18.3
16.4
189.0 13-10
177.0 10-11
174.0 12-10
133.2 12-5
9.3
8.0
6.8
6.7
0.78
1.12
0.98
0.97
0
0
0
0
117
124
135
94
1.15
1.25
1.35
1.29
2.95
3.10
5.17
4.05
4.44
4.60
4.22
3.73
.209
.240
.271
.248
.223
.261
.307
.288
8.1%
12.4%
10.9%
6.3%
2.31
0.98
-2.05
-2.93
90
157
345
351
Tim Lincecum | SF | Age: 30 | Rk: 87 (344)
Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | Age: 30 | Rk: 90 (353)
Position: SP
Position: SP/RP
Lincecum was last elite in 2011, ranking 13th among all SP that
year. Undoubtedly, 2012 was a lost season, but Lincecum rebounded a bit last year to post the 75th-best line in fantasy. Look,
he’ll still provide the Ks a la Ubaldo Jimenez, but the upside here
is long gone. At best his walk rate is below average, and opponents have squared up well against him for 2 years now (23+ LD%
in 2012 and 2013), meaning he’ll struggle to post an elite OBA,
which would be needed for anything resembling a good WHIP.
Gonzalez has been sneakily reliable for the last 2 seasons, posting WHIPs of 1.21 and 1.23, but he’s also had BABIPs of .260 in
both seasons -- that’s not happening again. He’s a ground ball
pitcher with slightly above average IFFB%s, but the 21%+ line
drive rate indicates those BABIPs are more mirage than skill. Assuming that rises as we expect, so will his ERA and WHIP. I’ll
still target Gonzalez heavily in spot start situations, but I doubt
he’ll be a permament back-of-the-fantasy-rotation material.
Players with similar stat lines: Ian Kennedy; Yovani Gallardo;
Wei-Yin Chen
Players with similar stat lines: Mike Leake; Chris Archer;
Scott Feldman
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
33
32
32
217.0
186.0
197.2
195.0
13-14
10-15
10-14
12-11
0
0
0
0
220
190
193
190
1.21
1.47
1.32
1.34
2.74
5.18
4.37
4.46
3.17
4.18
3.74
3.84
2011
2012
2013
2014
2011
2012
2013
2014
24.4
23.0
23.0
22.4
9.6
10.9
9.0
8.3
1.45
1.51
1.43
1.46
.218
.250
.243
.241
.281
.309
.300
.298
8.0%
14.6%
12.1%
12.2%
4.61
-2.19
-0.28
-2.83
38
353
224
344
2011
2012 17.7
2013 16.9
2014 17.3
18
30
31
105.1 9-4
171.1 11-8
180.0 11-10
8.1
7.4
7.0
0.82
0.97
0.92
0
0
0
77
120
133
1.21
1.23
1.28
3.25
3.78
4.10
4.38
4.45
3.95
.234
.239
.243
.260
.260
.280
9.8%
11.4%
8.1%
-0.76
-0.10
-2.95
253
214
353
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Jaime Garcia | STL | Age: 27 | Rk: 91 (354)
Scott Baker | SEA | Age: 32 | Rk: 94 (362)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Garcia has had a difficult time staying healthy, but he’s done a solid job of preventing runners from scoring when he’s been on
the mound. Interestingly, Garcia’s xFIP in particular has been
very good for 3 straight seasons with last year’s 15.4% HR/FB
rate marring his ERA. He has very good control but only average
strikeout potential, and a rotation spot is likely his if he makes it
through the spring in 1 piece. Because of issues with durability I’d
only use Garcia in a spot start role, but I’ll use him heavily there.
I was a little surprised when I went through the team-by-team projected rotations and saw Baker listed as Seattle’s number 2 SP. On
the one hand, I bet the Mariners wish they had a little more SP
depth, but on the other hand, Baker is a little underrated. We don’t
do him any favors (he barely cracks our top 100 SP), but after 2 lost
seasons, he does have a lot to prove. Baker is known for his nearelite control, but as a high-contact fly ball pitcher he’ll need some
HR luck to have a good year. Thankfully, he plays for the Mariners.
Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Morrow; Matt Harrison;
Paul Maholm
Players with similar stat lines: Chris Archer; Jon Niese;
Zack Wheeler
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
20
9
25
194.2
121.2
55.1
146.0
13-7
7-7
5-2
9-6
0
0
0
0
156
98
43
117
1.32
1.36
1.30
1.32
3.56
3.92
3.58
3.39
3.23
2.97
3.72
3.71
2011
2012
2013
2014
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.9
19.0
18.4
18.6
6.1
5.8
6.4
6.0
1.92
2.07
2.79
2.13
.267
.280
.260
.255
.318
.339
.300
.301
8.9%
7.2%
15.4%
12.0%
1.05
-2.07
-3.57
-2.97
138
345
481
354
2011 22.5
2012
2013 10.5
2014 20.0
23
3
26
134.2
15.0
167.0
8-6
0-0
10-9
0
0
0
123
6
144
1.17
0.87
1.33
3.14
3.60
3.87
3.45
5.65
4.70
5.8
7.0
6.3
0.77
0.48
0.71
.246
.170
.252
.297
.136
.285
8.7%
11.1%
12.3%
0.28
-6.70
-3.08
185
939
362
Mike Leake | CIN | Age: 26 | Rk: 92 (356)
Martin Perez | TEX | Age: 23 | Rk: 95 (363)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Leake posted a 3.37 ERA in 192.1 IP last season, ranking 52nd
among SP despite a pathetic 15.2 K% and 5.71 K/9. When the
ERA corrects itself -- and with a 4.04 FIP, 3.91 xFIP, .285 BABIP,
and 77.7% strand rate it most certainly will -- Leake will fall from
relevance to the ranks of the replacements. Without any significant strikeout potential, there’s virtually no hope for Leake to
get any better. The only way he’s repeating last year is with a second helping of luck, and that’s not something I’m betting on.
Perez was the 100th-ranked SP last season, and that’s right
where we have him this year. There’s nothing crazy about
his stat line and there are no bold proclamations here. He
has average strikeout potential that will likely be below average, and his control is pretty decent. He keeps the ball
down well enough and pitches an average number of innings. Perez is a low-ceiling, high-floor pitcher who will
make his starts, rack up his stats, and be done with it.
Players with similar stat lines: Miguel Gonzalez; Jhoulys Chacin;
Chris Archer
2011
2012
2013
2014
29
30
31
30
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.0
15.3
15.2
15.7
167.2 12-9
179.0 8-9
192.1 14-7
188.0 12-10
5.5
5.4
6.0
5.6
1.50
1.84
1.63
1.66
Players with similar stat lines: Jhoulys Chacin; Wade Miley;
Jason Vargas
0
0
0
0
118
116
122
127
1.17
1.35
1.25
1.30
3.86
4.58
3.37
3.97
4.22
4.42
4.04
4.08
2011
2012
2013
2014
.246
.282
.258
.254
.269
.306
.285
.286
13.9%
16.7%
11.5%
11.5%
0.59
-2.40
1.19
-3.00
162
372
152
356
2011
2012 14.1
2013 15.9
2014 16.6
12
20
29
38.0
124.1
182.0
1-4
10-6
13-9
0
0
0
25
84
132
1.63
1.34
1.37
5.45
3.62
3.83
4.15
4.23
3.83
8.5
7.0
7.0
1.63
1.54
1.49
.294
.264
.257
.333
.292
.299
7.5%
12.0%
8.5%
-5.57
-1.61
-3.11
700
296
363
Wade Miley | ARI | Age: 27 | Rk: 93 (359)
Ian Kennedy | SD | Age: 29 | Rk: 96 (365)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Miley dominated in 2012 thanks to some batted ball luck (6.9%
HR/FB rate) and very elite control (4.6 BB%) but was unable to
sustain either and took a tumble from 25th to 68th in the endof-season SP rankings. We have him set for another fall this
year with his projected 3.71 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Miley is a serviceable real like SP who can be streamed for a few extra Ks or
maybe a W in the right situations, but he has very limited upside in fantasy and will struggle to be a top 50 SP ever again.
Players with similar stat lines: Joe Kelly; Jon Niese;
Jhoulys Chacin
2011
2012
2013
2014
8
32
33
33
2011
2012
2013
2014
13.9
17.8
17.4
16.7
40.0
4-2
194.2 16-11
202.2 10-10
199.0 11-11
10.0
4.6
7.8
6.9
1.54
1.28
1.91
1.68
Kennedy was the 7th-best SP in fantasy in 2011, fell to 37th in 2012,
and then disappeared last season (152nd). His K% is consistent in
the low-20s, which puts him around 8.00 K/9, and he consistently gets burned by the long ball. That’s the price you pay for being
a fly ball pitcher in Arizona. On the bright side, Kennedy pitches nearly 200 innings every year, and there’s a non-zero chance he
gets some batted ball luck and limits the walks en route to a solid season. Something around a 3.40 ERA/1.20 WHIP is possible.
Players with similar stat lines: Hector Santiago; Jason Vargas;
Chris Archer
0
0
0
0
25
144
147
144
1.65
1.18
1.32
1.33
4.50
3.33
3.55
3.71
5.08
3.15
3.98
3.84
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
33
31
32
.296
.251
.259
.252
.321
.293
.296
.292
15.4%
6.9%
12.5%
9.5%
-4.71
3.21
-0.08
-3.01
604
73
211
359
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.0
20.8
20.5
20.5
222.0 21-4
208.1 15-12
181.1 7-10
195.0 11-12
6.1
6.1
9.2
7.4
0.98
0.88
0.99
0.93
0
0
0
0
198
187
163
174
1.09
1.30
1.40
1.35
2.88
4.02
4.91
4.16
3.22
4.04
4.59
4.01
.222
.260
.254
.247
.270
.306
.295
.296
7.7%
10.8%
13.2%
9.6%
6.93
1.82
-2.85
-3.15
18
120
407
365
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Jon Niese | NYM | Age: 27 | Rk: 97 (368)
Jhoulys Chacin | COL | Age: 26 | Rk: 100 (372)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Jon Niese, Opening Day Starter -- it has a nice ring, doesn’t it?
Probably not to Mets fans, but reportedly New York manager Terry Collins is leaning towards using Niese on Opening Day for the
2nd straight season. Niese is fine and dandy as a 4th SP on a contender, but he’s definitely not Opening Day material. As for your
fantasy team, Niese has been as valuable as 30th among SP as recently as 2012, and he definitely has that kind of potential. Don’t
worry about last year’s 6.61 K/9. It rebounded nicely in the 2nd half.
Last year, Chacin allowed 11 HR in 197.1 IP, and he plays for the
Rockies! His 6.2% HR/FB rate will most likely double this year, and
that’s going to cause real problems for his ERA. Thankfuly, Chacin
keeps the ball on the ground so that still means a below average
amount of HR allowed, but his 3.97 xFIP is more of what we should
expect. He doesn’t have a good strikeout rate, meaning batted ball
luck is the only way his WHIP escapes the 1.30s, and I don’t think
he’ll win 14 games again. Almost everything should get worse here.
Players with similar stat lines: Wade Miley; Joe Kelly;
Scott Baker
2011
2012
2013
2014
27
30
24
29
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.9
19.7
16.9
18.7
157.1 11-11
190.1 13-9
143.0 8-8
184.0 10-10
6.3
6.2
7.7
6.8
1.84
1.57
1.91
1.75
Players with similar stat lines: Martin Perez; Jason Vargas;
Wade Miley
0
0
0
0
138
155
105
150
1.41
1.17
1.44
1.35
4.40
3.40
3.71
3.71
3.36
3.80
3.58
3.94
2011
2012
2013
2014
31
14
31
31
.276
.237
.278
.253
.333
.272
.326
.298
10.4%
12.6%
8.2%
12.1%
-1.31
2.69
-2.34
-3.18
272
91
359
368
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.1
14.3
15.4
15.1
194.0 11-14
69.0
3-5
197.1 14-10
198.0 12-11
10.5
10.2
7.5
6.9
1.99
1.03
1.63
1.55
0
0
0
0
150
45
126
130
1.31
1.62
1.26
1.33
3.62
4.43
3.47
3.84
4.23
5.15
3.47
4.17
.228
.286
.250
.252
.261
.311
.288
.283
12.2%
11.6%
6.2%
10.4%
0.43
-4.98
1.07
-3.28
176
624
157
372
Chris Archer | TB | Age: 25 | Rk: 98 (369)
Zack Wheeler | NYM | Age: 24 | Rk: 101 (378)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Archer = Edwin Jackson. Look at their repertoires, their amateur
draft positions, their minor league careers, their path to the majors,
their first seasons -- everything is almost identical. Archer overachieved last year and posted a 3.22 ERA despite a 4.07 FIP and 3.91
xFIP, and I don’t think he’ll be nearly as good in 2014. His strikeout rate is nothing special, and though he got the walks under control with the Rays, that was the first semblance of good control I’ve
ever seen from him. He has potential, but I’m not buying into it now.
If you had to draft 1 player we have ranked outside the top 90,
it might be Wheeler (OK, it would probably be Archer, but
Wheeler is 1b). Walks are his limiting factor, and we’ll just have
to wait and see whether those improve enough to give Wheeler any value. There’s serious strikeout potential here, but in
17 starts for the Mets last year, Wheeler only managed a 19.5
K%. His August stats (3.13 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 22.9 K%, 7.0
BB%) are the best-case scenario, and that’s pretty darn great.
Players with similar stat lines: Jason Vargas; Scott Baker;
Miguel Gonzalez
2011
2012
2013
2014
6
23
26
2011
2012 29.5
2013 19.2
2014 19.1
29.1
1-3
128.2 9-7
172.0 11-10
10.7
7.2
7.9
1.15
1.38
1.34
Players with similar stat lines: Jon Niese; Scott Baker;
Chris Archer
0
0
0
36
101
142
1.23
1.13
1.34
4.60
3.22
4.04
3.40
4.07
4.19
2011
2012
2013
2014
.213
.223
.239
.290
.253
.280
11.1%
11.7%
11.0%
-5.47
-0.05
-3.20
690
209
369
2011
2012
2013 19.5
2014 20.5
17
29
100.0
176.0
7-5
9-10
0
0
84
157
1.36
1.34
3.42
3.89
4.17
3.61
10.7
9.6
1.30
1.26
.236
.228
.279
.283
10.2%
6.9%
-2.27
-3.34
354
378
Jason Vargas | KC | Age: 31 | Rk: 99 (370)
Scott Feldman | HOU | Age: 31 | Rk: 102 (379)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Left-handed Bronson Arroyo with a little less control, Vargas
makes his starts each season and ends up sneaking up the endof-season ranks. He only started 24 games last year for the Angels, but he’s usually good for 33 starts and 200+ IP with an ERA
in the high 3.00s or low 4.00s and a WHIP around 1.30. He’s a
fly ball pitcher in a pretty spacious park, and he has Mike Trout
vacuuming everything up in the outfield. You won’t draft a
low-upside starter like Vargas, but you’ll add him at some point.
Players with similar stat lines: Chris Archer; Jhoulys Chacin;
Tyler Skaggs
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
33
24
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
15.3
15.9
16.9
16.4
201.0 10-13
217.1 14-11
150.0 9-8
203.0 12-12
6.9
6.2
7.1
6.5
0.83
0.99
1.04
0.97
Feldman made 30 starts last year for the 1st time since 2009, posted a career-best 3.86 ERA, and then bolted to the Astros for
$30MM. Not a bad season, huh? His 59th-overall rank among SP
was decent, and it made Feldman a rosterable low-end SP in 10and 12-team formats, and there’s no reason he can’t be that good
again. We just think his .258 BABIP is likely to regress a little, and
that’ll push his WHIP up from 1.18 to something around 1.27.
His ERA should be similar, though we have it a notch over 4.00.
Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Morrow; Paul Maholm;
Miguel Gonzalez
0
0
0
0
131
141
109
143
1.31
1.18
1.39
1.31
4.25
3.85
4.02
4.14
4.09
4.69
4.09
4.23
2011
2012
2013
2014
11
29
30
32
.258
.242
.273
.251
.285
.254
.310
.282
7.7%
12.8%
9.2%
9.3%
-1.09
2.06
-2.10
-3.24
257
113
348
370
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.1
17.9
17.4
17.3
32.0
2-1
123.2 6-11
181.2 12-12
186.0 9-13
7.8
6.0
7.4
7.0
2.46
1.33
1.58
1.54
0
0
0
0
22
96
132
138
1.09
1.38
1.18
1.27
3.94
5.09
3.86
4.07
3.99
3.81
4.03
4.25
.214
.276
.229
.237
.239
.318
.258
.268
12.5%
10.9%
11.0%
12.1%
-4.74
-3.49
0.68
-3.34
609
471
173
379
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Henderson Alvarez | MIA | Age: 24 | Rk: 103 (382)
John Danks | CHW | Age: 29 | Rk: 106 (390)
Position: SP
Position: SP
We’re really scratching the bottom of the barrel here. We project Alvarez for his best-ever fantasy season, using his low-strikeout, good control ways to fool opponents to the tune of a near4.00 ERA. His ERA and WHIP were actually better than these
projections last year, but we’re giving him 172 innings of slightly worse production, and the quantity is what eeks out this 102nd
overall rankings. Bluntly, you’re either in a really deep league or
trouble if you’re turning to Alvarez for more than a single start.
Players with similar stat lines: Carlos Villanueva; Brett Oberholtzer;
Josh Collmenter
2011
2012
2013
2014
10
31
17
27
2011 15.4
2012 9.8
2013 13.6
2014 14.2
In 2009, Danks pitched 195 innings of 3.32 ERA ball, won 12 games,
and finished with a 1.23 WHIP. His win total increased to 13 the next
year, then 15, and though his ERAs had settled in around 3.70, recall that was actually average back in the day. Over the last 3 years,
the league average ERA has plummeted, but Danks’ has kept rising. He only made 9 starts in 2009 and last year he came back to
pitch 138.1 innings of bad baseball. He makes the list because he’s
been good and he’s still young, but he isn’t worth gambling on.
Players with similar stat lines: Miguel A. Gonzalez; Brandon Morrow;
Matt Harrison
63.2
187.1
102.2
172.0
1-3
9-14
5-6
7-11
0
0
0
0
40
79
57
102
1.13
1.44
1.14
1.17
3.53
4.85
3.59
3.96
3.97
5.18
3.18
4.61
2011
2012
2013
2014
27
9
22
29
3.1
6.7
6.5
6.4
2.04
2.34
2.18
2.27
.259
.288
.234
.222
.281
.291
.271
.235
15.1%
18.1%
2.6%
16.5%
-3.86
-4.12
-2.61
-3.39
518
537
386
382
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.5
12.6
15.3
16.0
170.1 8-12
53.2
3-4
138.1 4-14
183.0 10-10
6.3
9.7
4.6
6.0
1.20
1.12
1.13
1.16
0
0
0
0
135
30
89
126
1.34
1.49
1.29
1.32
4.33
5.70
4.75
3.89
3.82
5.01
5.06
4.46
.270
.266
.274
.255
.313
.282
.283
.282
9.9%
10.8%
16.8%
11.6%
-1.67
-5.18
-3.91
-3.56
300
649
505
390
Matt Harrison | TEX | Age: 28 | Rk: 104 (385)
Bruce Chen | KC | Age: 37 | Rk: 107 (391)
Position: SP
Position: SP/RP
After tossing 213.1 IP in 2012, Harrison missed almost all of last
year with a lower back injury. Our ranking and projection definitely
penalize him for not pitching last year (whether that’s fair or not is
up to you). Don’t forget how great Harrison was in 2011 and 2012,
though, when he ranked 36th and 29th among all SP. His worst ERA
in those 2 years was 3.39, his worst WHIP was 1.28, and he actually won 18 games in 2012. All of those numbers are within reach
for 2014, though admittedly I didn’t want to rank him much higher.
Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Morrow; John Danks;
Miguel A. Gonzalez
2011
2012
2013
2014
31
32
2
24
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.3
15.2
23.5
15.8
185.2 14-9
213.1 18-11
10.2
0-2
165.0 10-8
7.4
6.7
13.7
6.5
1.47
1.58
1.40
1.56
Chen is a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher who doesn’t strike many
batters out. That’s not supposed to work, but somehow the southpaw has turned in serviceable seasons in 2 of the last 3 years (albeit last year he was limited to just 121 IP). Ranking as well as 63rd
among SP in 2011, Chen actually has the potential to be a very good
spot starter, and perhaps playing home games in Kansas City will
keep his HR/FB rate well below the league average (it’s been 8.1%
or lower in 3 of the last 4 years). That’s all the good I have to say.
Players with similar stat lines: Paul Maholm; Brett Oberholtzer;
Carlos Villanueva
0
0
0
0
126
133
12
113
1.28
1.26
1.97
1.32
3.39
3.29
8.44
3.75
3.52
4.03
5.20
3.98
2011
2012
2013
2014
25
34
34
33
.252
.257
.318
.256
.290
.284
.400
.290
7.1%
10.5%
20.0%
9.9%
1.17
2.90
-6.78
-3.46
135
86
968
385
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.8
16.9
15.7
15.4
155.0 12-8
191.2 11-14
121.0 9-4
166.0 9-7
7.7
5.7
7.2
6.3
0.76
0.73
0.53
0.67
0
0
0
0
97
140
78
108
1.30
1.37
1.18
1.25
3.77
5.07
3.27
4.12
4.39
4.73
4.12
5.09
.255
.278
.233
.240
.278
.304
.255
.250
8.1%
11.9%
6.7%
11.7%
-0.57
-2.12
-0.91
-3.58
229
350
260
391
Brandon Morrow | TOR | Age: 29 | Rk: 105 (386)
Trevor Cahill | ARI | Age: 26 | Rk: 108 (392)
Position: SP
Position: SP/RP
I was very high on Morrow after the phenomenal start he had
to 2013, but then he struggled and got hurt and reminded us that
we should never trust Brandon Morrow. We learned our lesson and only pegged him for a 3.76 ERA and some underwhelming strikeout numbers over 154 IP, but sooner or later Morrow
could put it all together and give us one great fantasy season. You
won’t want to be the one to draft him year after year expecting it,
but if he starts 2014 hot like last year, I’ll jump on the bandwagon.
From 2009-2012, Cahill showed yearly improvements
with his strikeout rate, but his walk rate never really budged. Always a great ground ball pitcher, Cahill was
able to get by well enough (career 3.89 ERA), but the luster has completely faded from his shiny 2.97 ERA in 2010,
and all we’re left with now is an average innings eater. Like most everyone else in these ranks, Cahill’s only
real role is as fantasy spot starter in standard leagues.
Players with similar stat lines: Matt Harrison; John Danks;
Paul Maholm
2011
2012
2013
2014
30
21
10
26
2011
2012
2013
2014
26.1
21.4
17.4
18.7
179.1 11-11
124.2 10-7
54.1
2-3
154.0 9-7
8.9
8.1
7.4
7.3
0.87
1.03
0.87
0.88
Players with similar stat lines: Phil Hughes; Mark Buehrle;
Hector Santiago
0
0
0
0
203
108
42
125
1.29
1.11
1.49
1.34
4.72
2.96
5.63
3.76
3.64
3.65
5.42
4.29
2011
2012
2013
2014
34
32
26
32
.233
.213
.283
.245
.299
.252
.302
.284
10.4%
8.6%
15.6%
9.7%
0.28
1.13
-5.53
-3.46
184
149
709
386
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.3
18.6
16.0
16.8
207.2 12-14
200.0 13-12
146.2 8-10
198.0 13-11
9.1
8.8
10.2
9.3
2.21
2.69
2.34
2.50
0
0
0
0
147
156
102
146
1.43
1.29
1.42
1.38
4.16
3.78
3.99
4.14
4.10
3.85
4.26
3.94
.264
.244
.253
.238
.302
.289
.289
.281
11.6%
12.3%
12.1%
9.9%
-1.11
1.15
-2.62
-3.64
259
145
389
392
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Phil Hughes | MIN | Age: 28 | Rk: 109 (394)
Carlos Villanueva | CHC | Age: 30 | Rk: 112 (400)
Position: SP/RP
Position: SP/RP
Hughes is an extremely popular late-round target in 2014
drafts because the fly ball pitcher is finally leaving Yankee Stadium. I agree that this is a very good move for Hughes, but
not enough to boost him very high in our rankings. Even if
the HR woes correct themselves, which they almost certainly will, Hughes is still too hittable to post anything resembling a good (or even slightly below average) WHIP.
The HR were a problem, but they weren’t the only problem.
Players with similar stat lines: Trevor Cahill; Bud Norris;
Hector Santiago
2011
2012
2013
2014
17
32
30
32
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.1
20.3
18.9
19.2
74.2
5-5
191.1 16-13
145.2 4-14
187.0 13-10
8.1
5.6
6.5
6.1
0.71
0.68
0.66
0.65
Most of the pitchers in this range get ranked down here because they don’t have the skills to be useful fantasy assets. That’s
not the case with Villanueva. He bounces around between rotation and bullpen every year, never accruing more than 130 IP,
but he makes those limited innings count with a strikeout rate
around 8.00 K/9 and a solid walk rate. His ERA is below average,
which is why he can’t find a permanent home in an MLB rotation, but from a fantasy persepective he’s a great spot start option.
Players with similar stat lines: Henderson Alvarez; Brett Oberholtzer;
Bruce Chen
0
0
0
0
47
165
121
159
1.49
1.26
1.46
1.43
5.79
4.23
5.19
4.17
4.58
4.56
4.50
4.47
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
38
47
40
107.0
125.1
128.2
122.1
6-4
7-7
7-8
7-7
0
0
0
0
68
122
103
101
1.26
1.27
1.22
1.25
4.04
4.16
4.06
4.09
4.10
4.71
3.86
4.10
.277
.257
.286
.273
.304
.286
.324
.315
8.0%
12.4%
11.1%
10.6%
-4.81
1.65
-4.68
-3.65
619
128
604
394
2011
2012
2013
2014
15.0
23.4
19.7
19.4
7.1
8.8
7.6
7.7
0.84
0.83
1.03
1.04
.246
.239
.243
.228
.271
.275
.283
.265
7.5%
15.2%
9.8%
9.8%
-2.66
-1.28
-1.79
-3.78
385
286
321
400
Miguel A. Gonzalez | PHI | Age: 27 | Rk: 110 (397)
Ricky Nolasco | MIN | Age: 31 | Rk: 113 (403)
Position: SP
Position: SP/RP
I hope you weren’t reading through every SP profile just looking for Gonzalez (actually, I hope you were!). It’s tough making a projection for international rookies, but from what I’ve
read he possesses a very good two-seamer that induces a lot
of grounders, but he’ll probably only have an average strikeout rate and control (at least at the start) over an unimpressive
amount of IP. The lack of info means our rank could be way off,
and that makes MAG a better sleeper than many in this range.
Players with similar stat lines: John Danks; Ricky Nolasco;
Matt Harrison
2011
2012
2013
2014
27
2011
2012
2013
2014 17.0
The largest free agent contract in Twins history belongs to Nolasco. Umm, what? Last year Nolasco finished the season ranked
45th among SP, but he was in the mid-90s in both 2011 and 2012,
so I’m more inclined to believe his non-contract year performance is the real indicator of his probable stat line. The 3.70 ERA
and best-since-2009 strikeout rate were nice last year, but Nolasco
also allowed a career-worst 24.3 LD%. His ceiling is his 2013 season, but I’m not comfortable predicting that line from a Twin.
Players with similar stat lines: Chris Capuano; Ryan Vogelsong;
Kyle Kendrick
166.0
10-9
0
123
1.35
3.87
4.08
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
31
34
33
206.0
191.0
199.1
193.0
10-12
12-13
13-11
10-12
0
0
0
0
148
125
165
140
1.40
1.37
1.21
1.31
4.67
4.48
3.70
4.21
3.54
3.87
3.34
3.72
8.2
1.39
.243
.282
9.3%
-3.72
397
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.6
15.0
19.8
16.8
4.9
5.7
5.5
5.7
1.45
1.47
1.32
1.39
.289
.275
.251
.256
.331
.309
.299
.297
9.5%
9.1%
8.7%
8.6%
-2.04
-1.41
1.71
-3.80
334
293
133
403
Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | Age: 25 | Rk: 111 (398)
Paul Maholm | LAD | Age: 32 | Rk: 114 (404)
Position: SP/RP
Position: SP
Oberholtzer posted a 2.76 ERA in 71.2 IP last year, primarily getting it done with a sub-2.00 BB/9. A fastball-curveball-change-up
pitcher has a history of higher strikeout rates in the minors, some
as high as the mid-8.00s K/9 with similarly impressive walk rates.
Because of the low walk rates, I have faith in Oberholtzer to post
reliable WHIPs (his was 1.10 last year with a .260 BABIP), but
I’m not sure how high the Ks will go. Admittedly, a not-insignificant part of me wants to use Oberholtzer as my go-to spot starter.
Maholm disappeared after a very hot start to last year,
but we all knew he would cool down. He’s Paul Maholm.
He actually had pretty solid seasons in 2011 and 2012,
evidence by his 87th and 41st rankings among SP those
seasons, but Maholm’s LD% has only risen throughout his career. He’s not getting better, but he’s better than
last year’s 1.41 WHIP. A correction to his 13.8% HR/FB
rate should help push his ERA back under 4.00 as well.
Players with similar stat lines: Carlos Villanueva; Lance Lynn;
Bruce Chen
2011
2012
2013
2014
13
27
2011
2012
2013 15.4
2014 16.8
Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Morrow; Bruce Chen;
Matt Harrison
71.2
166.0
4-5
7-13
0
0
45
118
1.10
1.23
2.76
4.11
3.65
4.53
2011
2012
2013
2014
26
32
26
27
4.4
5.3
0.84
0.92
.237
.244
.260
.267
7.1%
11.8%
-2.75
-3.75
398
398
2011
2012
2013
2014
14.1
17.8
15.7
16.6
162.1 6-14
189.0 13-11
153.0 10-11
161.0 9-8
7.3
6.7
7.0
6.9
1.77
1.87
2.07
1.91
0
0
0
0
97
140
105
115
1.29
1.22
1.41
1.31
3.66
3.67
4.41
3.94
3.78
4.00
4.24
4.03
.254
.247
.276
.246
.286
.281
.310
.283
7.5%
12.8%
13.8%
11.8%
-1.82
1.55
-2.50
-3.81
312
132
373
404
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Lance Lynn | STL | Age: 27 | Rk: 115 (407)
Chris Capuano | FA | Age: 35 | Rk: 118 (416)
Position: SP
Position: SP/RP
Lynn is one of the more volatile SP in our rankings because
he could be a top 40 SP our fall outside the top 100. It all depends on whether he gets the last rotation spot. I’ve heard
that the Cardinals don’t particularly like Lynn in the rotation, preferring Joe Kelly or one of their many young SP,
but right now I see depth charts that have Lynn listed as
one of their starting 5. If he makes the rotation, bump him
up to 50-60, but no higher than that. His WHIP is too high.
Players with similar stat lines: Brett Oberholtzer; Jenrry Mejia;
Bruce Chen
2011
2012
2013
2014
18
35
33
45
2011
2012
2013
2014
29.4
24.2
23.1
25.0
34.2
1-1
176.0 18-7
201.2 15-10
104.0 6-5
8.1
8.6
8.9
9.0
1.81
1.36
1.25
1.29
Capuano is currently a free agent. Prior to signing Ubaldo Jimenez
I’d heard rumors that the Orioles were interested, but they’ve been
rumored to be in on every semi-capable SP. Capuano isn’t a fantasy stud by any means, but he ranked 38th among SP in 2012
and he’s posted increasingly good FIPs every year since 2007 (he
was out of the league in 2008, 2009, and 2010). Everything about
Capuano will probably be average, and there’s no upside here. His
value is probably the same -- low -- regardless of where he signs.
Players with similar stat lines: Ryan Vogelsong; Ricky Nolasco;
Miguel A. Gonzalez
1
0
0
0
40
180
198
114
1.04
1.32
1.31
1.38
3.12
3.78
3.97
3.40
2.88
3.49
3.28
3.79
2011
2012
2013
2014
33
33
24
31
.202
.251
.246
.235
.272
.321
.314
.304
11.5%
10.4%
7.4%
11.8%
-4.52
2.54
1.75
-3.82
577
98
129
407
2011
2012
2013
2014
21.0
19.8
17.7
18.1
186.0 11-12
198.1 12-12
105.2 4-7
178.0 10-10
6.6
6.6
5.3
5.7
1.06
1.03
1.39
1.16
0
0
0
0
168
162
81
140
1.35
1.22
1.41
1.36
4.55
3.72
4.26
4.07
4.04
3.95
3.55
3.84
.266
.247
.289
.265
.311
.284
.334
.310
12.0%
11.1%
9.6%
9.2%
-0.69
1.76
-3.97
-3.97
240
121
513
416
Hector Santiago | LAA | Age: 26 | Rk: 116 (410)
Kyle Kendrick | PHI | Age: 29 | Rk: 119 (417)
Position: SP/RP
Position: SP
Santiago makes the most sense in points leagues where you rack
up value with Ks, but he’ll be a terrible contributor in WHIP. I enjoy using Santiago when I’ve already gotten a typical Clayton Kershaw start (I own the LAD ace) and I have some cushion in my
rate stats, allowing me to enjoy the potential 7-8+ K day without
worrying about how Santiago is going to kill my rate stats. Santiago did have better walk rates in the minors, so maybe he can
harness some of the 3.50 BB/9 stuff and get his WHIP to 1.35.
Players with similar stat lines: Bud Norris; Phil Hughes;
Trevor Cahill
Kendrick is an unspectacular, low-ceiling, high-floor, reliable innings-eater at the back of the Phillies rotation. Though
his ERAs have jumped around a lot over the last 4 years (4.73,
3.22, 3.90, 4.70), his FIPs have shown a perennial downward
trend while his GB% has shown a perennial upward trend. Kendrick is getting a little better each year, but not good enough
to really make noise in fantasy leagues. I’ve got him on my
watch list for when he finds himself in favorable matchups.
Players with similar stat lines: Ricky Nolasco; Miguel A. Gonzalez;
Ryan Vogelsong
2011
2012
2013
2014
2
42
34
31
5.1
70.1
149.0
174.0
0-0
4-1
4-9
11-7
0
4
0
0
2
79
137
165
0.38
1.34
1.40
1.43
0.00
3.33
3.56
4.17
2.84
4.70
4.44
4.02
2011
2012
2013
2014
34
37
30
29
2011
2012
2013
2014
11.1
25.8
20.9
21.4
5.6
13.1
11.0
10.5
2.25
0.92
0.84
0.82
.059
.208
.241
.237
.067
.259
.289
.294
0.0%
13.5%
9.2%
7.6%
-6.04
-2.29
-2.31
-3.85
770
363
355
410
2011
2012
2013
2014
12.3
17.2
13.8
15.1
114.2 8-6
159.1 11-12
182.0 10-13
187.0 11-13
6.3
7.3
5.9
5.9
1.26
1.30
1.60
1.43
0
0
0
0
59
116
110
122
1.22
1.27
1.40
1.32
3.22
3.90
4.70
4.22
4.55
4.32
4.01
4.37
.249
.249
.277
.255
.261
.278
.306
.282
10.5%
11.4%
9.5%
11.4%
-1.51
-0.21
-2.97
-3.98
289
218
420
417
Travis Wood | CHC | Age: 27 | Rk: 117 (414)
Bud Norris | BAL | Age: 29 | Rk: 120 (419)
Position: SP
Position: SP
From 46th among SP to 117th, I want no part of Wood. Like
Mike Leake, Wood rode shotgun with Lady Luck last year to a
.248 BABIP and 6.9% HR/FB rate. His 4.50 FIP was more representative of his true performance and not his actual 3.11
ERA. If he struggles as much as we expect, Wood might not
even make it to 190 IP, meaning he would fall even further
in our rankings. At least Wood keeps the ball down...wait,
nope. He’s primarily a fly ball pitcher. Nothing to see here.
Players with similar stat lines: Ricky Nolasco; Scott Feldman;
Paul Maholm
Always good for 160-180 innings of near K/IP ball, Norris disappointed last year in his first season with the Orioles. I think he gains back some of the Ks, though not all
of them, while providing a reliable low-4.00s ERA and a
kills-your-team 1.40+ WHIP. Norris has always been incredibly hittable, and that doesn’t appear to be changing any time soon. He’s a bargain basement source of
Ks, but just about everything else will hurt your team.
Players with similar stat lines: Hector Santiago; Mark Buehrle;
Edwin Jackson
2011
2012
2013
2014
22
26
32
32
106.0
156.0
200.0
190.0
6-6
6-13
9-12
8-10
0
0
0
0
76
119
144
143
1.49
1.20
1.15
1.28
4.84
4.27
3.11
4.18
4.06
4.84
3.89
4.10
2011
2012
2013
2014
31
29
32
31
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.4
18.3
17.5
17.5
8.6
8.3
8.0
8.0
0.71
0.78
0.75
0.73
.282
.227
.218
.233
.324
.244
.248
.268
6.7%
12.7%
6.9%
7.3%
-3.99
-1.22
1.60
-3.92
526
281
136
414
2011
2012
2013
2014
22.1
22.5
19.0
20.1
186.0 6-11
168.1 7-13
176.2 10-12
182.0 11-13
8.8
9.0
8.7
8.8
1.01
0.99
1.05
1.00
0
0
0
0
176
165
147
162
1.33
1.37
1.49
1.42
3.77
4.65
4.18
4.17
4.02
4.23
3.86
4.21
.246
.250
.280
.251
.294
.301
.333
.300
11.7%
12.0%
8.1%
10.0%
-0.59
-1.75
-2.07
-4.00
231
320
347
419
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Mark Buehrle | TOR | Age: 35 | Rk: 121 (420)
Jenrry Mejia | NYM | Age: 24 | Rk: 124 (432)
Position: SP
Position: SP
It might be unfair to put Buehrle down at 121 among SP after finishing last year ranked 89th among SP. He has thrown at least 200
IP in every single year of his career (minus his 1st season) and he’s
almost always had an ERA in the 3.75-4.25 range. Interestingly,
Buehrle posted the 2nd best K% of his career last season (15.9%),
but it’s still too little too late for an aging veteran who does just
enough to keep having real-life value. His fantasy value -- if he
ever really had any -- disappeared years ago (OK, 2012 aside).
Players with similar stat lines: Trevor Cahill; Bud Norris;
Edwin Jackson
2011
2012
2013
2014
31
31
33
33
2011
2012
2013
2014
12.7
15.1
15.9
15.5
205.1 13-9
202.1 13-13
203.2 12-10
203.0 12-11
5.2
4.8
5.8
5.5
1.27
1.14
1.33
1.23
The Mets have 4 of their starting rotation spots locked up, and I
think Mejia gets the other one. He probably won’t hold it all year
(we only projected 132 IP), but his ERA and K rate will be decent. Mejia is young but he’s been in the Mets system since 2008,
and he really impressed in 27.1 IP with the club last season -2.30 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 2.31 xFIP. His control has bounced around,
but he flashed elite walk rates in his cup of coffee in 2013, and
there’s definitely enough upside here to give Mejia a look late.
Players with similar stat lines: Brett Oberholtzer; Paul Maholm;
Lance Lynn
0
0
0
0
109
125
139
138
1.30
1.17
1.35
1.37
3.59
3.74
4.15
4.11
3.98
4.18
4.10
3.94
2011
2012
2013
2014
.273
.251
.273
.267
.294
.270
.305
.304
8.6%
11.4%
10.6%
8.4%
0.20
1.66
-0.89
-4.06
189
127
259
420
2011
2012 10.8
2013 24.1
2014 18.8
5
5
22
16.0
27.1
132.0
1-2
1-2
7-8
0
0
0
8
27
108
1.81
1.17
1.34
5.63
2.30
3.87
5.41
2.46
3.92
12.2
3.6
7.3
3.08
2.94
1.93
.308
.259
.247
.327
.329
.292
16.7%
12.5%
12.2%
-6.54
-4.52
-4.25
833
584
432
Ryan Vogelsong | SF | Age: 36 | Rk: 122 (422)
Edwin Jackson | CHC | Age: 30 | Rk: 125 (436)
Position: SP
Position: SP
Vogelsong stumbled to a 5.93 ERA last year, but don’t forget how surprisingly valuable he was in 2011 and 2012 (28th
and 32nd among SP). I’m not ready to close the book entirely, though we’re definitely on the last few pages. He’s
a low-upside option, but he has a very favorable home park
and a recent history of success (albeit success fueled by a little luck). Keep in mind that at 120+ SP deep, we’re onto the
5th starters for most teams, so there’s not a ton of quality left.
Jackson has been average for so long, but now he’s finally become below average. His 1.40+ WHIP tanks any value he has, and you really only use Jackson when he’s the
only name you recognize on free agency or you’re trying
to lose the week (sarcasm, but he’s really not very helpful). He can provide decent K totals in H2H leagues where
you’re already up (or down) but a good margin in the
rate stats, but I honestly don’t see any other use for him.
Players with similar stat lines: Chris Capuano; Ricky Nolasco;
Kyle Kendrick
2011
2012
2013
2014
30
31
19
30
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.5
20.1
14.4
18.0
179.2 13-7
189.2 14-9
103.2 4-6
177.0 10-12
8.1
7.9
8.1
8.2
1.34
1.14
1.28
1.19
Players with similar stat lines: Bud Norris; Mark Buehrle;
Chris Capuano
0
0
0
0
139
158
67
139
1.25
1.23
1.56
1.36
2.71
3.37
5.73
4.18
3.67
3.70
4.91
3.76
2011
2012
2013
2014
32
31
31
32
.239
.238
.293
.244
.280
.284
.320
.291
8.2%
8.2%
13.4%
7.1%
2.29
2.51
-5.88
-4.07
92
100
773
422
2011
2012
2013
2014
17.2
21.3
17.4
18.8
199.2 12-9
189.2 10-11
175.1 8-18
181.0 10-13
7.2
7.3
7.6
7.6
1.40
1.32
1.81
1.61
0
0
0
0
148
168
135
150
1.44
1.22
1.46
1.41
3.79
4.03
4.98
4.07
3.55
3.85
3.79
3.91
.282
.237
.276
.260
.330
.278
.322
.309
8.2%
11.7%
9.9%
10.8%
-0.59
0.95
-3.61
-4.30
232
160
486
436
Yordano Ventura | KC | Age: 23 | Rk: 123 (424)
Yusmeiro Petit | SF | Age: 29 | Rk: 126 (438)
Position: SP
Position: SP/RP
If you’re looking for upside late, you found it. I would take Ventura
above almost everyone outside the top 80 or 100, but these rankings
are based on projected end-of-season stats and not draft value. It’s
up to you to apply these rankings, write-ups, statistics to your own
league. As much as I love Ventura, and he has a ton of potential in
a similar mold to what Danny Salazar had last year, I think Danny Duffy will hold the 5th rotation slot long enough to hurt Ventura’s value. Look for him late in the year, especially in H2H leagues.
Players with similar stat lines: Yusmeiro Petit; Josh Collmenter;
Carlos Villanueva
2011
2012
2013
2014
3
14
2011
2012
2013 17.2
2014 22.7
Despite the flashes we saw last year, and nothing flashed brighter than Petit coming within 1 strike of a perfect game, it looks
like he’ll end up being a long reliever out of the bullpen. Vogelsong isn’t the most reliable rotation arms so should a spot
open up we’ll get a chance to see if Petit was more than just a
brief storyline, but there’s absolutely no way you care about
him come draft day unless you’re in a deep NL-only league.
Players with similar stat lines: Yordano Ventura; Josh Collmenter;
Carlos Villanueva
15.1
79.0
0-1
5-3
0
0
11
77
1.24
1.29
3.52
3.43
5.33
3.91
2011
2012
2013
2014
9.4
8.3
1.35
1.44
.224
.228
.227
.280
17.6%
12.0%
-6.80
-4.08
976
424
2011
2012 4.6
2013 24.0
2014 21.6
1
8
37
4.2
48.0
88.0
0-0
4-1
4-6
0
0
0
1
47
82
2.36
1.19
1.28
3.86
3.56
3.37
5.24
2.86
4.30
18.2
5.6
5.5
1.00
0.68
0.67
.389
.249
.258
.412
.313
.300
0.0%
6.7%
12.7%
-6.91
-3.53
-4.32
922
480
438
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2014 Draft Guide - Baseball Professor

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1 Introduction