- Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Transcripción

- Famine Early Warning Systems Network
FEWS NET
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
Global Weather Hazards Summary
October 3-9, 2014
Above-average rains continue in Central America, dryness remains in several parts of East and West Africa
Africa Weather Hazards
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Seasonally Dry
4
3
5
1.Below-average
rains during the Belg
season and a late onset
of the Kiremt rains have led
to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed
planting and negatively affected the development of
already-planted crops in the Arsi and West Arsi zones of
central Ethiopia.
2
2
1
6
7
2. An early end of Mar-May seasonal rainfall and an
abnormally dry July have inhibited crop and pasture
development in central and northern Ethiopia.
3. Despite a return of seasonally normal rainfall during
August, moisture deficits persist in northwestern Senegal.
The delayed onset of the season in July has resulted in poor
growing conditions and crop development.
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
4. Poor July rains in several local areas of Mali have resulted in poor
crop and pastoral conditions.
5. Poor rainfall since mid-August has led to late-season moisture deficits, increasing the likelihood for adverse ground impacts
throughout many parts of western and southern Niger, eastern Mali, and northern Nigeria. Below average rains are forecast
in the region for the next week.
6. Well above-average precipitation forecast over arid areas of northern Somalia are likely to trigger localized flooding.
7. Since the beginning of September, poor rains have inhibited crop development and compromised planting activities
throughout Rwanda.
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for
International Development or the United States Government.The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by
FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries
concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected], [email protected]ews.net, or 1-301-683-3424.
Weather Hazards Summary
October 3-9, 2014
Latin America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards
1. Moderate to heavy rain during the past several
weeks has reduced rainfall deficits across
Hispaniola. Though increased rains have helped to
mitigate long-term seasonal dryness throughout
Hispaniola, dryness remains across southern Haiti
and parts of southwestern Dominican Republic.
Reduced rainfall forecast during the next week is
expected to further prolong dryness.
1
1
2
5
3
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
4
No Hazards
Posted for
Central America
2. Torrential rains during the past month have
driven river levels above alert-level in Petén Department of
Guatemala. With additional localized heavy rain forecast for the next
week, flooding risks remain elevated in northern Guatemala.
3. Abundant rains during the past several weeks have caused flooding and
landslides across southern Guatemala. This rain could also combine with a high
amounts of pyroclastic materials from the volcanos Santiaguito and Fuego to
increase flooding risks. Heavy rains forecast during the next week are increasing the
risk of additional flooding and landslides.
4. Several weeks of above-average rain have led to saturated ground conditions and 30-day rainfall
surpluses in excess of 150 percent of normal. With abundant rain forecast for the next week, localized
flooding is possible.
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
5. Heavy rains during the past several weeks have caused flooding and landslides in Huehuetenango
Department of Guatemala. Heavy rain forecast for the next week will increase the risk of additional landslides.
Central Asia Weather Hazards
1. Recent rains during September have improved
conditions across parts of northwest Kazakhstan
after below-normal precipitation since May led to
drought conditions. However, abnormal dryness still
remains.
2. Poorly distributed rainfall since May has led to
strengthening moisture deficits, and low soil
moisture in southeastern Kazakhstan.
Temperatures
Seasonal temperatures prevailed across northeast
Kazakhstan from September 21-27, while temperatures
averaged 1-5°C above normal across the rest of Central
Asia. Freezing temperatures were limited to northeast
Kazakhstan and the higher elevations of Afghanistan
and Tajikistan. During the first week of October, the
GFS model indicates that freezing temperatures will
remain confined to northern Kazakhstan and the higher
elevations of Central Asia.
1
2
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
Precipitation
Light to moderate rain (17 mm or less) fell across northwest Kazakhstan, which reduced long-term precipitation deficits. Due
to rainfall this month, drought conditions in this area have improved to abnormal dryness. Locally heavy rain (up to 50 mm) fell
across extreme eastern Afghanistan. According to the CPC-unified dataset, the largest 90-day precipitation deficits (>50 mm) are
across southern Russia. During the next week, the GFS model indicates light to moderate precipitation (5-25 mm) across northern
Kazakhstan, with heavier amounts (>25 mm) across southeast Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
2
ased rains received over anomalously dry areas of
gal, Niger.
Valid: September 21 – September 27, 2014
Satellite Estimated October
Rainfall (mm)
last seven
days,
the over
northern
limit of seasonal
rain front
ased
rains
received
anomalously
dry areas
of
Weather
Hazards
Summary
3-9, 2014
Valid:
September
21
–
September
27, 2014
/ITF)Niger.
was still active across the southern Sahel region in West
gal,
, bringingAfrica
well-distributed and favorable amounts of
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm)
ed rains received over anomalously dry areas of
itation
during
the final
week
of September.
The highest
weekly
Valid:
September 21 – September 27, 2014
last
seven
days,
the
northern
limit
of
seasonal
rain
front
al, Niger. Increased rains received over anomalously dry areas of Senegal, Niger.
Figure 1: Satellite-Estimated Rainfall (mm)
mulations
observed
across
costal Guinea,
SierrainLeone,
/ITF) was were
still active
across
the southern
Sahel region
West
Valid: September 21-27, 2014
beria,
withInincreased
rainfall
observed
many
the
last week,
the northern
limitfavorable
ofthroughout
the seasonal
rain
frontparts
(ITF/ITCZ)
,last
bringing
well-distributed
and
amounts
of
seven
days, theGhana,
northern
limit
of seasonal
rain front
thern
Cote
d’Ivoire,
Burkina
Further
east,wellremained
over week
the southern
Sahel
regionFaso.
in West
Africa, weekly
bringing
itation
during
the final
ofand
September.
The
highest
TF)
was
still
active
across
the
southern
Sahel
region
in
West
distributed
and
favorable
amounts
of
rain.
The
highest
amounts
,
but
improved
rains,
were
also
received
in
western
Niger
andwere received
mulations
were
observed across
costal
Guinea, Sierra
Leone,
bringing
well-distributed
and
favorable
amounts
of
in
coastal
Guinea,
Sierra
Leone,
and
Liberia,
with
rainfall
increases
aberia,
(Figure
1).
Along
the
Gulf
of
Guinea
coastline,
seasonal
with increased
rainfall
observed
throughout
many
parts also
ation
during
the
final
week
of
September.
The
highest
weekly
observed
in many parts of northern Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Burkina Faso.
er
activity was
present.
thern
d’Ivoire,
Ghana,
and Burkina
Faso.Sierra
Further
east,
lationsCote
were
observed
across
Lesser,
but improved
rains costal
were alsoGuinea,
received in
westernLeone,
Niger and Nigeria
, but improved rains, were also received in western Niger and
eria,
with increased
observed
throughout
manyweekly
parts of rain.
(Figure 1). The
Gulf of Guinea
coastline
received seasonal
amounts
latest
position
ofrainfall
the Gulf
ITF/ITCZ,
locally
moderate
ahe(Figure
1). Along
of Guinea
coastline,
seasonal
hern
Cote
d’Ivoire,
Ghana,
and
Burkina
Faso.
Further
east,
mulations
were mostly received in the eastern
and
er activity (10-25mm)
was
present.
With
the
latest
position
of
the
ITF/ITCZ,
moderate
rains
(10-25mm)
but
improved
rains,
werehelping
also received
in western
Niger
and mostly
rn portions
of
Senegal,
to
mitigate
abnormal
dryness
fell inAlong
eastern the
and western
helping
to alleviate
abnormal dryness
(Figure
Gulfrains
ofSenegal,
Guinea
coastline,
seasonal
ming
from1).
poor and
earlier
inmoderate
the
season.
In
he latest
position
of erratic
the
ITF/ITCZ,
locally
weekly
Figure
1: NOAA/CPC
stemming
from
poor
and
erratic
rains
earlier
in
the
season.
In addition,
a
activity
was
present.
on, a late(10-25mm)
surge
ofofrains
and
moisture
Niger
mulations
wereover
mostly
received
in western
the eastern
andis
late
surge
rains
western
Niger over
is expected
to help
offset
moisture
expected
offset helping
developing
moisture
deficits
due toSatellitedeficits
stemming
from
below-average
rainfall
since latedryness
August.
rn portionsto
ofhelp
Senegal,
to mitigate
abnormal
Satellite Estimated Weekly Rain Anomaly Tendency (mm
e latestrains
position
ofrainfall
the August.
ITF/ITCZ,
locally
moderate
weekly
essed
since
late
Satellite
estimate
anomaly
estimated
anomalies
suggest
an
increasing
late-season
rainfallFigure
trend 1: NOAA/CPC
ming from poor and erratic rains earlier in the season. In
Valid: September 27, 2014
lations
(10-25mm)
were
mostly
received
in western
thetrend
eastern
and
inan
southern
Niger, Nigeria,
Senegal,
and
Guinea
(Figure
2). Despite
sis
depicts
increasing
late-season
rainfall
southern
on,
a late
surge
of rains
and
moisture
over
Niger
is these
portionsSenegal
of
Senegal,
helping
toseasonal
mitigate
abnormal
dryness
recent
improvements,
both
andDespite
short-term
moisture
deficits remain
(Figure
2).
some
these
Nigeria,
and
expected
to
help
offsetGuinea
developing
moisture
deficits
due
to
Satellite Estimated Weekly Rain Anomaly
Tendency (mm)
Source: NOAA/CPC
ng
from
poor
and
erratic
rains
earlier
in
the
season.
In
in
many
local
areas,
which
may
still
adversely
impact
crop
and
pastoral
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
improvements,
seasonal Satellite
and short-term
moisture
essed
rains since both
late August.
estimate anomaly
Valid:
September
27,
2014
Figure 2: Satellite-Estimated Weekly Rain Anomaly
a depicts
late surge
of local
rainsareas,
and
moisture
Niger
is
s, remain
inconditions.
many
which stillover
maywestern
adversely
impact
sis
an
increasing
late-season
rainfall
trend southern
Tendancy (mm) Valid: September 27, 2014
pected
toSenegal
help
offset
developing
moisture
deficits
due
to
nd
pastoral
conditions.
Satellite Estimated Weekly Rain Anomaly Tendency (mm)
(Figure
2). Despite
some
these
Nigeria,
and Guinea
For
the
next
week,
the
ITF/ITCZ
is
expected
to
continue
its
retreat
toward
ssed
rains since late
August.
Satellite
estimate anomaly
Valid: September 27, 2014
improvements,
both
seasonal
and short-term
moisture
the Equator,
reducing
rainfall throughout
the trend
Sahel insouthern
West
Africa.
sse depicts
an
increasing
late-season
rainfall
upcoming
outlook
period,
the
ITFsurge
is
continue
its Mali and
remain
inHowever,
many
local
areas,
which
stillexpected
adversely
impact
another
late-season
inmay
rainfall
isto
forecast
central
(Figure
2).
Despite
some in
these
Nigeria,
Senegal
and
Guinea
orward
retreat,
resulting
in
reduced
rainfall
throughout
the
nd pastoral
conditions.
southeastern Mauritania, leading to another week favorable rainfall. Average
improvements,
both seasonal
and
short-term
moisture
in West Africa.
However,
another
surge
to above-average
rains
are alsolate-season
expected in themoisture
Gulf of Guinea
region during
remain
in
many
local
areas,
which
still
may
adversely
impact
ecast
in central
Maliperiod,
and southeastern
Mauritania,
which
e upcoming
outlook
the ITF is expected
to continue
itsis
early
October.
dted
pastoral
conditions.
to bring
another
week
favorablerainfall
rainfallthroughout
in the region.
orward
retreat,
resulting
in reduced
the
Above-average
rains
expected
in
East
Africa
during
the
next
week
ge
to
above-average
rains
are
also
expected
further
south
in
in West Africa. However, another late-season moisture surge
upcoming
outlook
period,
the
ITF
is
expected
to
continue
its
ecast
in central
and of
southeastern
Mauritania,
is has been
ulf of Guinea
region
during
early
October.
Since
theMali
beginning
September,
rainfall
throughout which
East Africa
ward
resulting
in
reduced
rainfall
throughout
the
ted toretreat,
bring
another
week
favorable
rainfall
in
the
region.
average to above-average with a few local areas in Ethiopia receiving belowngeWest
Africa.
However,
another
late-season
moisture
surge
to above-average
are
expected
further
in
average
rains. rains
Much
of
thisalso
late-season
increase
in rainssouth
and
moisture
is
ast
in
central
Mali
and
southeastern
Mauritania,
which
is
ulf of Guinea
regiontoduring
earlythat
October.
expected
benefit areas
have experienced poor and erratic rains earlier
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
d to bringthis
another
week infavorable
rainfall in the region.
summer.
e-average
rains
exepcted
East Africa.
e to above-average rains are also expected further south in
For
theof
next
week, early
moderate
to heavy
rains are forecast
several regions GFS Weekly Total Precipitation Forecast (mm)
of Guinea
region
during
October.
the
beginning
September,
rainfall
throughout
EastforAfrica
Source: NOAA/CPC
in
the
East
Africa.
In
western
and
central
Ethiopia,
late
season
Kiremt rains
September 22 – September 29, 2014
NOAA/CPC
e-average
rains exepcted
Africa.
een predimontly
average intoEast
above-average
with few local Figure 2:Valid:
Figure 3. GFS Total Precipitation Forecast (mm)
are expected to continue in early October. Further east, an onset of wellValid: September 29 - October 6, 2014
in Ethiopiadistributed
experienceing
below-average
rains.
Much
of
this
moderate to locally heavy rains is also forecast, with the highest GFS Weekly Total Precipitation Forecast (mm)
the
beginning
of
September,
rainfall
throughout
East
Africa
eason increase
in rainsexpected
and moisture
expected
benefit
rainfall amounts
in northernisSomalia,
whichto
could
trigger localized
Valid:
September 22 – September 29, 2014
Figure 2:
NOAA/CPC
average
rains
exepcted
in
East
Africa.
een
average
to
above-average
with
few
local
that predimontly
have
experienced
poor
and
erratic
rains
earlier
thisareas
flooding. The onset of coastal showers is also expected in several
of
in Ethiopiasouthern
experienceing
rains.
of this
er.
Somalia andbelow-average
southeastern Kenya
(FigureMuch
3).
GFS Weekly Total Precipitation Forecast (mm)
eason
increaseofinSeptember,
rains and moisture
is expected
to benefit
he beginning
rainfall throughout
East
Africa
Valid: September 22 – September 29, 2014
that
have experienced
poor
and erraticto rains
this
en
predimontly
average
to above-average
with earlier
few
he
upcoming
outlook
period,
moderate
heavy
rainslocal
are
ner.
experienceing
rains.In Much
of this
stEthiopia
for several
regions inbelow-average
the East Africa.
western
and
increase
rains and moisture
is expected
benefit
lson
Ethiopia,
theincontinuation
of late season
Kiremttorains
are
he
upcoming
outlook
period,
moderate
to
heavy
rains
are
hat
have
experienced
poor
and
erratic
rains
earlier
this
ted into early October. Further east,
the onset of wellst formoderal
severaltoregions
in the rains
East are
Africa.
In western
r.
uted
locally heavy
also forecast,
withand
the
the continuationexpected
of late season
Kiremt rains
are
stl Ethiopia,
rainfall accumulations
over northern
Somalia.
ted
intocould
early
October.
Further
east, in
onset
of Inwellrains
trigger
localized
flooding
the
region.
the
upcoming
outlook
period,
moderate
to the
heavy
rains
are
uted
moderal
to
locally
heavy
rains
are
also
forecast,
with
the
the several
onset ofregions
coastalinshower
activity
is also
exepcedand
for
t, for
the East
Africa.
In western
stEthiopia,
rainfall
accumulations
expected
over northern
Somalia.
al
areas
in the
southern
Somalia,
Kenya
(Figure
continuation
ofand
latesoutheastern
season
Kiremt
rains
are
trigger localized
the onset
region.of Inwellthe
drains
into could
early October.
Furtherflooding
east, in the
Source: NOAA/CPC
,edthe
onset
of
coastal
shower
activity
is
also
exepced
for
moderal to locally heavy rains are also forecast, with the
Figure 3: NOAA/CPC
alrainfall
areasFamine
inaccumulations
southern
Somalia,
and
southeastern
Kenya
(Figure
Early Warning
Systemsover
Network
3
expected
northern Somalia.
rains
could
trigger
localized
flooding
in
the
region.
In
the
The hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to
Figure
3: are
NOAA/CPC
onset of
coastal
activity
is pasture
also exepced
).the
It assesses
their
potentialshower
impact on
crop and
conditions.for
Shaded
polygons
added in areas where anomalous conditions hav
Weather Hazards Summary
October 3-9, 2014
Latin America and the Caribbean
Torrential
rainsacross
observed
in saturated
of northern
Central
America
ntial rains were
observed
saturated
areasareas
of northern
Central
America.
During the past week, heavy rains (>50 mm) fell across saturated areas of Central America, including Costa Rica, Panama, and the
g the past seven
days,
heavy of
rains
(>50mm)
were
observed
across
areas
America
Rica,Costa
Panama
Pacific
coastline
northern
Central
America.
More
thansaturated
100 mm of
rain of
fellCentral
in coastal
Belize,including
northernCosta
Honduras,
Rica,and
andthe
c coastline of northern Central America. The heaviest rains (>100mm) were located around the Gulf of Fonseca, coastal Belize, northern
near the Gulf of Fonseca. The highest rainfall amounts (>200 mm) were recorded in Choluteca and Yoro, Honduras and Belize City,
uras and across Costa Rica. The highest precipitation totals (>200mm) were recorded in Choluteca and Yoro, Honduras and Belize City,
Belize.fell
Rain
across
saturated
areasininGuatemala
Guatemalaresulted
caused flooding
andand
landslides
in Santa
Guatemala,
Suchitepéquez,
Alta
. The rains which
across
saturated
areas
in flooding
landslides
in theRosa,
Santa
Rosa, Guatemala,
Suchitepéquez,
anddepartments.
Escuintla Departments.
Severalofweeks
of above-average
rains have
ledthirty-day
to 30-dayrainfall
rainfall surpluses
surpluses throughout
erapaz and Verapaz
Escuintla
Several weeks
above-average
rains have
led to
throughoutCentral
Central
America.
The largest
surpluses
(>200 mm)
are located
the Gulf
Fonseca in
Salvador,
and Nicaragua.
Due to
ca. The largest
surpluses
(>200mm)
are located
around
the Gulfaround
of Fonseca
in of
Honduras,
ElHonduras,
Salvador El
and
Nicaragua.
The abundant
rains
September above-average
have led to average
to above-average
Postrera
season
rainfall
in Central
America.
The to
average
to above-average
rainfall during
September, Postrera
season
rainfall
totalstotals
in Central
America
are average
above-average,
which
nal rainfall tostands
date stands
in contrast
to the below-average
Primeraduring
season
poor
rains
in rains
July in
negatively
impacted
cropping
in contrast
to the below-average
rainfall received
therainfall.
PrimeraWhile
season.
While
poor
July resulted
in reduced
es through Central
America
resulting
in
reduced
crop
yields,
heavy
rains
during
the
Postrera
season
have
improved
cropping
activities.
crop yields throughout Central America, heavy rains during the Postrera season have improved cropping activities.
During
the rains
next week,
heavy
(>50
mm) are
forecast
for including
Central America,
including
previously
saturated
g the next week,
heavy
(>50mm)
arerains
again
forecast
foragain
Central
America
previously
saturated
areas around
theareas
Gulf around
of Fonseca
uatemala. The
rains could
cause additional
flooding
across
areas inacross
Guatemala.
Elsewhere,
rains (>50mm)
are
theabundant
Gulf of Fonseca
and Guatemala.
These rains
could
causeflood-prone
additional flooding
flood-prone
areas inheavy
Guatemala.
Heavy rains
xpected across
Rica,
Panama
and
the Caribbean
Nicaragua,
whilecoastline
moderate
locally heavy
(>25mm)
is forecast
(>50Costa
mm) are
also
expected
across
Costa Rica,coastline
Panama, of
and
the Caribbean
of to
Nicaragua,
whilerain
moderate
to locally
heavyfor
r portions of Central
as well as
Caribbean
northern
Central
America.coastline of northern Central America.
rain (>25America
mm) is forecast
forthe
inland
portionscoastlines
of CentralofAmerica
and
the Caribbean
Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm)
Figure 1: Seven-Day Total Rainfall ForecastOctober
(mm)
1 – October 8, 2014
Valid: October 1-8, 2014
Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC
Source: NOAA/CPC
Heavy rain to continue improving agricultural conditions in southern Haiti
or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected] or 1-301-683-3424.
During the past week, moderate to heavy rain (>25 mm) fell across much of Hispaniola. The heaviest rain (>50 mm) fell across
central/northern Haiti and western/northern Dominican Republic. The above-average weekly rains reduced 30-day and seasonal
rainfall deficits across dry areas of Hispaniola, including northern/central Dominican Republic and the southern peninsula of Haiti.
Thirty-day rainfall totals are near average across Hispaniola, with below-average rainfall only in localized areas of southwestern
Dominican Republic. Rainfall since August 1st has also been near average across the island, with rainfall deficits lingering only in
southern Haiti. However, the long-term impact from dryness during much of the summer is evident in ground conditions across
Hispaniola. According NDVI, ground conditions remained poor across southern Haiti and bordering southwestern Dominican
Republic during the middle of September. Conditions also remain poor in local areas of northern Dominican Republic, although
recent rains have led to improvements. During the next week, rainfall is expected to be moderate to locally heavy (>25mm) in local
areas of central Hispaniola. Light to moderate rain (5-20 mm) is expected elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDS
Hazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and
pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at
this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
4

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