Mexican Automotive Industry Outlook towards 2020

Mexican Automotive Industry Outlook towards 2020

Mexican Automotive
Industry Outlook towards
2020
Fausto Cuevas Mesa
General Director
Mexican Automotive
Industry Association
Automotive Sector
Economic Relevance:
Top generator of foreign
reserves. With a foreign trade
surplus of 52.5 billion dollars
in 2015
Contributes with 3.1% of total
GDP and 18.3% of
manufacturing industry GDP
Mexico has become the 7th
largest manufacturer of
vehicles and the 1st in Latin
America
25% of manufacturing
exports
4th
largest exporter in the
world
5h largest automotive parts
exporter and first supplier for
the United States
2
Producción y Exportación
– Contributed with 3.7% of total world production.
– More than 80% of total production is directed to foreign markets.
Light vehicle exports
3.00
Millon units
Light vehicle production
3.5
3.0
Δ
0.7%
2.5
2.50
2.00
Δ
-2.7%
1.50
1.00
2.0
0.00
1.0
0.5
0.0
Source: AMIA.
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Jan-Ago 2015
Jan-Ago 2016
0.50
1.5
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Jan-Ago 2015
Jan-Ago 2016
Millon units
4.0
3
Automotive Industry GDP
From 2008 to 2015, Mexican automotive industry has consolidated as one
of the most important within the Mexican economy, increasing its share of
total GDP by 58% and its share of manufacturing sector GDP by 53%
Automotive industry share
Total GDP
Automotive industry share
Manufacturing industry GDP
3.1%
2.9%
2.3%
2.5%
2.6%
2.1%
2.0%
14.1%
18.3%
12.8%
12.0%
1.5%
15.3% 15.9%
17.1%
9.6%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 2015P
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 2015 P
… the automotive industry impacts 84 economic activities of
manufacturing industry and 73 of trade and services.
Fuente: INEGI - PIB y Cuentas Nacionales. Precios constantes base 2008.
Notas: P se refiere a datos preliminares. Automotriz considera Fabricación de automóviles y camiones, Fabricación de carrocerías y remolques, Fabricación de partes
para vehículos automotores, Fabricación de otro equipo de transporte.
4
Manufacturing sector in Mexico
• Within manufacturing sector, the automotive industry is
the second GDP generator.
Share manufacturing
industry GDP
1993
2000
2005
2014
2015
Percentages
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Agroindustry
24.1
20.2
22.7
23.6
22.6
Automotive industry
11.2
13.5
12.1
16.9
18.3
Chemistry industry
9.4
11.1
12.6
11.6
9.0
Basic metal industry
3.3
4.5
6.4
5.8
5.4
Beverages and
tobacco industries
4.5
4.7
5.5
5.1
5.2
47.5
46.0
40.7
37.0
39.6
Other industries
Source: INEGI – Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales.
5
Manufacturing sector
employment 2014
Agroindustry
17.3%
Automotive
industry
14.4%
Other
industries
54.6%
Metal
products
7.7%
The automotive
industry employs
730,923 people
directly,
representing
14.4% of total
manufacturing
sector
employment.
Clothing
5.9%
Source: INEGI – Censos Económicos 2014.
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Automotive industry
exports importance
50,000
45,000
41,670
Millones de dólares
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
13,156
15,000
10,063
10,000
8,103
5,000
Automotive
industry exports
represent more
than oil products
exports,
remittances
income and
tourism income
together.
0
2013
2014
2015
2016
January - June
Automotive industry
Oil products
Remittances
Tourism income
Fuente: elaborado por AMIA, con datos de INEGI - Grupo de Trabajo de Estadísticas de Comercio Exterior, integrado por el Banco de México, INEGI,
Servicio de Administración Tributaria y la Secretaría de Economía.
* Se considera Industria Automotriz: 87.01.20 Tractores de carretera para semirremolques; 87.02 Vehículos automóviles para el transporte => 10 personas;
87.03 Automóviles tipo turismo; 87.04 Vehículos para transporte de mercancías; 87.05 Automóviles para usos especiales; 87.06 Chasises con motor; 87.07
Carrocerías ; 87.08 Partes y accesorios de vehículos; 87.11 Motocicletas
7
Automotive industry
exports in the world
During 2014
Mexico was the
4th largest
exporter in the
world, above
counties like
Canada and
Korea.
8
Production value
Vehicles and trucks production
55.4%
national production
28.8%
Added value
Source: INEGI.
44.6%
26.6%
Domestic inputs
Imported inputs
9
Railway System
Source: Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes.
10
Vehicles trade through
seaports (January-July 2016)
Export
Import
National Ports System
40,115
vehicles
186,010
vehicles
1,257 26,902
246,458
vehicles
5,914
53,720
vehicles
101,176
vehicles
Source: Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes.
27,722
vehicles
11
NAFTA vehicle production
Mexico
7%
2015
1994
(1.12
million)
Canada
15%
(2.32
million)
Mexico
20%
(3.57
million)
United
State
78%
(2.28
million)
United
State
67%
(12.24
million)
NAFTA: 15.68 million vehicles.
Canada
13%
(12.10
million)
NAFTA: 17.95 million vehicles.
• From 1994 to 2015 production vehicle of NAFTA región
increased 14.5%.
Fuente: elaborado por AMIA con datos de Ward’s Automotive y OICA. Data in vehicle units.
12
Vehicle world production
Fuente: elaborado por AMIA con datos de OICA.
13
Light vehicles production
and forecast 2020
6.0
5.1
5.0
4.6
4.0
4.0
3.4
3.5
2.6
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.6
2005
1.9
2.0
2004
2.0
2.9
2013
3.0
2.9
2012
3.2
2003
Million units
4.4
2.0
2.3
2.1
1.5
Fuente: 2000 a 2015 registro de AMIA. 2016^ a 2020^ corresponde a estimación de la asociación suponiendo una tasa de crecimiento
del 3% y con base en los anuncios publicados.
2020^
2019^
2018^
2017^
2016^
2015
2014
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2002
2001
0.0
2000
1.0
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Considering new investments, our forecast is that
Mexico will be producing more than 5 million vehicles in
2020 (hard forecast)
2015
Mexico
20%
(3.57
million)
Canada
13%
(2.28
million)
2020
(estimated*)
Mexico
27%
(5.1
million)
United
State
67%
(12.10
million)
Canada
13%
(2.3
million)
United
States
60%
(12.1
million)
NAFTA: 17.95 million vehicles.
* Assuming that United States and Canada maintain the same production level of 2015.
15
Mexico has increased 12.7% its share in NAFTA
production during the last 21 years.
México
México
Lineal
(México)
(1994-2015)
~ Mex México
Lineal(forecast
(~ Mex)
2016-2020)
25.0%
27.0%
20.0%
24.0%
15.0%
10.0%
21.0%
5.0%
* Assuming that United States and Canada maintain the same production level of 2014.
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
2020 1998
1997
1996
1995
18.0%
2016 1994
0.0%
With an
increase to
5.1 million
vehicles in
next 5 years,
Mexico could
increase its
share by
6.2%.
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… and the opportunity in
the supply chain
17
Market value and investment
opportunity in the supply chain in Mexico
PROMEXICO’s calculations.
Data in billions of dollars.
Source: PROMEXICO. The Auto Parts Industry, Business Intelligence Unit.
•
74% of total
demand for
processes is
imported,
therefore, there are
huge investment
opportunities for
foreign companies.
•
The most
demanded
processes are
stamping, foundry,
forging ,
machining, plastic
injection and
casting.
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Domestic Market
19
Mexican domestic market
1,400,000
1,200,000
+ 18.5%
1,000,000
800,000
987,663
Jan-Aug 2016
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
833,577
Source: AMIA, con datos de sus asociados.
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
Jan-Aug 2015
1,351,648
2015
200,000
1,135,409
400,000
2014
600,000
1,139,718
Unidades de vehículos ligeros
1,600,000
• New vehicle sales keep its growing up trend. August 2016 sales stand as the best
this month as well as January-August.
20
Similar countries
Light vehicles sales
for each 1,000 people
Argentina
Brazil
GDP per capita
(constant US$, 2005)
Chile
Mexico
25.0
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Mexico
11,000
10,000
20.0
9,000
8,000
15.0
7,000
10.0
6,000
5,000
5.0
4,000
Brazil
January - August
1,691,804
2015
January - August
1,305,562
2016
source: ADEFA, ANAC, ANFAVEA y AMIA.
* Light vehicle units.
2014*
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Source: World Bank.
* 2014 se estima con publicación del FMI.
Source: ACARA, AMIA, ANAC, ANFAVEA.
change
3,000
2005
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0.0
-22.8%
Mexico
Argentina
Chile
Colombia
833,577
388,804
177,114
185,531
987,663
462,834
187,219
157,231
18.5%
19.0%
5.7%
-15.3%
21
Imported used vehicles
Borderland
rest of the country
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: AMIA with data from SAT - Administración General de Aduanas..
* Claves de documento consideradas: Zona Fronteriza: C1,C2 y VF, Resto del país: A1, A3 y VU.
2014
2015
Jan-Jul Jan-Jul
2015
2016
Used vehicles imports decreased 60.6% during 2015 and the first seven
moths of 2016 it decreased 2.9%.
22
Credit sales
New vehicle sales
Sales of new vehicles through credit *
800,000
700,000
Thousands units
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
January - June
* Nota: considera la mayoría de las instituciones crediticias.
Fuente: AMIA y AMDA con datos de JATO Dynamics.
2013
2014
2015
2016
At least
65.8% of
January –
June new
vehicles
sales
were sold
through
credit.
23
¡THANK
YOU!
Fausto Cuevas Mesa
General Director
Mexican Automotive Industry Association
+52 (55) 5272-1144
@AmiaMexico
Asociación Mexicana de la
Industria Automotriz ac
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