Mid Year Population Estimates Hertfordshire 2005

Mid Year Population Estimates Hertfordshire 2005

Mid Year Population Estimates
Hertfordshire
2005
8th December, 2006
Publication date
Summary
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the Registrar-General’s population estimates
for England & Wales for 2005 on 28th August 2006. Hertfordshire’s population was estimated as
1,048,200. This is an increase of approximately 6,900 (0.7%) over the estimate for 2004. The
rate of growth is slightly higher than suggested by the 2004-based Population Projections
produced by the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG). These projections
suggest a growth of 5,900 (0.6%) from 2004 to 2005.
The 2005 estimates for the individual districts in Hertfordshire suggest population growth over the
preceding year in most districts, with the greatest growth in Welwyn Hatfield and St Albans, and
the least in Watford and Stevenage, both of which remained virtually unchanged. The growth in
the estimate for Welwyn Hatfield greatly exceeds its increase in the 2004-based projections
The population of England as a whole was estimated to have increased by approximately (0.7%).
The estimates for Eastern Region have grown by 0.9%, with the greatest proportional growth in
Cambridgeshire (1.7%, with highest growth in Cambridge and East Cambs) and Bedfordshire
(1.4%). Of the districts in the region, Forest Heath in Suffolk had the highest growth (5.0%). The
lowest growth in estimates was in Southend (-0.1%), and the other unitaries grew at rates below
the average for the region.
Table 1. 2005 and 2004 Mid Year Estimates
Hertfordshire and districts
Mid-2004
Mid-2005
Population Population Change
% Change
HERTFORDSHIRE Estimate
Estimate
2004 to 05 2004 to 05
Hertfordshire
Broxbourne
Dacorum
East Hertfordshire
Hertsmere
North Hertfordshire
St Albans
Stevenage
Three Rivers
Watford
Welwyn Hatfield
2005
Projection,
ONS 2004based
%
Projected Projected
change,
change,
2004-5
2004-5
1,041,300
1,048,200
6,900
0.7%
1,047,200
5,900
0.6%
86,100
138,000
131,000
93,300
119,900
132,200
79,000
84,000
79,300
98,500
86,500
138,500
131,800
93,900
120,700
133,500
79,000
84,600
79,300
100,500
400
500
800
600
800
1,300
0
600
0
2,000
0.4%
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
0.6%
1.0%
0.0%
0.7%
-0.1%
2.0%
86,300
138,400
131,900
93,600
121,100
133,800
79,100
84,700
79,400
99,000
200
400
900
300
1,200
1,600
100
700
100
500
0.2%
0.3%
0.7%
0.3%
1.0%
1.2%
0.1%
0.8%
0.1%
0.5%
Note
Populations in whole numbers. Estimates are rounded to the nearest hundred in accordance with ONS requirements. Hence
numbers may not sum exactly.
Components of Change, Hertfordshire 2004 to 2005
Major points from the components of change are:
• an increase in Hertfordshire’s estimated population in 2005 of approximately 6,900 (0.7%),
much greater than the abnormally low 2004 increase of 400, and more in accord with the
population growth forecast in ONS’s 2003-based and 2004-based population projections
• the increase is partly due to natural growth (more births than deaths), and partly due to net
inward migration as estimated by ONS
• Natural change of 3,500, i.e. growth in population due to more births (12,800) than deaths
(9,300), and consistently similar over previous years
• Total net inward migration of approximately 3,400, typical of most recent years other than
2004, when the migration estimate was 3,200 net outward migration
• Allowances for internal migration (i.e. within UK) led to a net increase of approximately 1,000
in estimated population, with approximately 41,600 in-migrants and 40,600 out-migrants
• Allowances for international migration led to a net increase of approximately 2,300 in
estimated population, with approximately 7,300 in-migrants and 4,900 out-migrants
Table 2. Components of change in Mid Year Estimates of population
Hertfordshire and districts, 2004 to 2005
Mid-2004
Population
Total Net
Migration Net Internal International
and other Migration
Births
Deaths
Migration
2004-2005 2004-2005 changes 2004-2005 2004-2005
Natural
Change
Hertfordshire
Broxbourne
Dacorum
East Hertfordshire
Hertsmere
North Hertfordshire
St Albans
Stevenage
Three Rivers
Watford
Welwyn Hatfield
Mid-2005
Population
Components of Change
Total
Increase % Increase
2004 to 05 2004 to 05
Other
Changes
1,041,300
3,500
12,800
9,300
3,400
1,000
2,300
100
1,048,200
6,900
0.7%
86,100
138,000
131,000
93,300
119,900
132,200
79,000
84,000
79,300
98,500
300
300
500
100
200
700
500
200
500
200
1,100
1,600
1,500
1,200
1,400
1,800
1,000
900
1,200
1,200
700
1,300
1,000
1,000
1,200
1,100
600
800
700
900
0
100
300
500
500
700
-500
500
-500
1,700
200
-100
-100
200
500
-100
-500
300
-700
1,200
-200
200
400
300
100
700
0
100
200
600
0
0
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
86,500
138,500
131,800
93,900
120,700
133,500
79,000
84,600
79,300
100,500
400
500
800
600
800
1,300
0
600
0
2,000
0.4%
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
0.6%
1.0%
0.0%
0.7%
-0.1%
2.0%
Note
• From the 2002 estimates onwards there are some changes in method and presentation compared to previous
years. There is no allowance for “unattributable” change in the estimating process from 2002 onwards.
“Unattributable” change was the annual change applied retrospectively to reconcile the 1991 to 2001 censusbased Mid Year Estimates (-1,000 for Hertfordshire), and was initially applied to the 2002 Mid Year Estimates
(superseded version published in September 2003) on the assumption that it was compensating for a continuing
methodological bias in the estimating process.
• The allowance for asylum seekers is now shown separately within the International Migration estimate, along
with a separate estimate for the number of visitor switches. The estimate of international migration for
Hertfordshire in 2005 includes a net inflow of 50 asylum-seekers and 440 visitor switches.
• Numbers may not sum exactly because of rounding.
2
2005 Mid Year Estimate and recent population trends
The estimated annual growth of 6,900 in Hertfordshire’s population is in line with recent trends,
and contrasts with the uncharacteristically small increase of 400 in 2004.
All population estimates since those for 1982 were revised downward in the light of the 2001
Census results, but those revised estimates of population for Hertfordshire have been increased
on average by approximately 5,000 per year between 1998 and 2003. The increase in population
estimates from 2002 to 2003 was 3,700. ODPM/ONS’s 2004-based population projections,
based on trends in migration over the preceding five years, predicted an annual growth in
population for Hertfordshire in 2005 of approximately 5,900.
A set of 2001-based population projections using the Chelmer model was commissioned by the
East of England Regional Assembly (EERA) to inform its response to the East of England Plan
(or Regional Spatial Strategy). These have been published in 2005, and suggest an annual
growth in Hertfordshire’s population of around 5,000, similar to the ODPM/ONS projections.
Further projections are being commissioned by EERA to reflect the housing recommendations
arising from the plan’s examination in public.
All current and recently superseded estimates and projections are shown in Chart 1. The
superseded series of population estimates and the projections based on them are shown in
greens and blues. The current series of Mid Year Estimates and the projections based on them
are shown in reds and browns.
Chart 1. Trend in estimates and projections of total population
Hertfordshire, 1996 to 2008
1,100,000
Population MYE (Revised 2004)
Population MYE Revised 2003
1,090,000
Population (MYE superseded)
1,080,000
Projections (96-b)
Proj 98-based
Proj 2000-ba
1,060,000
2001 Census
1,050,000
Population MYE revised Oct 2004
Population MYE revised Sep 2004
1,040,000
ODPM 2003-based
1,030,000
Chelmer 5 yr mig
1,020,000
Chelmer RSS banked
1,010,000
Chelmer RSS submitted
DCLG 2004-based
Year
3
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1,000,000
1996
Population
1,070,000
Annual change in population estimate by district
The change in population estimates from 2004 to 2005 is positive in all districts, and similar to the
change from 2001 to 2002, and from 2002 to 2003. This contrasts with the change from 2003 to
2004, which was uncharacteristically small. The rate of change in population estimate had
declined from 2003 to 2004 in 8 of the ten Hertfordshire districts, the exceptions being Watford
and Welwyn Hatfield.
Chart 2. Annual change in Mid Year Estimates of population
Hertfordshire districts, 2001 to 2005
2,500
2,000
1,500
Broxbourne
Dacorum
East Hertfordshire
Hertsmere
North Hertfordshire
St Albans
Stevenage
Three Rivers
Watford
Welwyn Hatfield
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
4
2005
Changes in population estimates in relation to changes in dwelling stock
In 2005, Hertfordshire’s population estimate increased by approximately 6,900, whilst dwellings
numbers increased by just under 4,000. This presents a marked contrast to 2004, when
dwellings increased by just over 3,000, whilst the population estimate increased by just 400. The
relation between population change and dwellings change should not be exactly linear, because
of various factors including diminishing average household size. However in the historical context
the small increase in population estimate in 2004 appears anomalous at both county and district
level.
Table 3. Increase in Population Estimates and Dwellings
Hertfordshire and districts, 2004 to 2005
% Increase,
Mid-2004
Mid-2005
Population 2004
Population Population Change
Dwellings
Estimate,
Estimate
Estimate
2004 to 05 2004 to 05 stock
Hertfordshire
Broxbourne
Dacorum
East Hertfordshire
Hertsmere
North Hertfordshire
St Albans
Stevenage
Three Rivers
Watford
Welwyn Hatfield
2005
Dwellings
stock
Change
2004 to
05
%
Increase,
Dwellings,
2004 to
05
1,041,300
1,048,200
6,900
0.7%
439,679
443,677
3,998
0.9%
86,100
138,000
131,000
93,300
119,900
132,200
79,000
84,000
79,300
98,500
86,500
138,500
131,800
93,900
120,700
133,500
79,000
84,600
79,300
100,500
400
500
800
600
800
1,300
0
600
0
2,000
0.4%
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
0.6%
1.0%
0.0%
0.7%
-0.1%
2.0%
36,513
58,412
54,604
39,319
51,777
54,710
33,542
34,907
33,817
42,078
37,415
58,713
54,962
39,507
52,189
55,308
33,710
34,980
34,173
42,720
902
301
358
188
412
598
168
73
356
642
2.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.8%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
1.1%
1.5%
Chart 3. Increase in population estimate and dwellings stock
Hertfordshire and districts, 2004 to 2005
3.0%
2.5%
1.5%
% Increase, Population Estimate, 2004 to 05
1.0%
0.5%
% Increase, Dwellings, 2004 to 05
0.0%
District
5
Welwyn Hatfield
Watford
Three Rivers
Stevenage
St Albans
North Hertfordshire
Hertsmere
East Hertfordshire
Dacorum
Broxbourne
-0.5%
Hertfordshire
% Increase
2.0%
Chart 4a. Trend in population estimates by dwellings stock
Hertfordshire, 1991 to 2005
1,060,000
2005
1,050,000
Population Estimate
1,040,000
1,030,000
1,020,000
1,010,000
1,000,000
990,000
1991
980,000
390,000
400,000
410,000
420,000
430,000
440,000
450,000
Dwellings
Chart 4b. Trend in population estimates by dwellings stock
Hertfordshire districts, 1991 to 2005
140,000
130,000
120,000
Broxbourne
Dacorum
East Herts
Hertsmere
North Herts
St. Albans
Stevenage
Three Rivers
Watford
Welwyn Hatfield
Population
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Dwellings
6
50,000
55,000
60,000
Comments on the estimates
These population estimates are based on the estimates of population from the 2001 Census,
adjusted annually by estimates of natural change and migration. The return to growth in the 2005
population estimate of about 0.7% makes the estimates for 2004 look dubiously low. If the 2004
estimates are inaccurately low, then this error will be repeated in future years throughout the
series up until the 2011 Census, because of the cumulative nature of the annual estimating
process.
The main elements of the annual estimating process are adjustments for natural change and
migration.
• Natural change is reliably measured through the registration of births and deaths.
• The allowance for Hertfordshire’s internal migration (i.e. within the UK) are in accordance
with migration estimates for Hertfordshire based on the NHS Central Register.
• Allowances for international migration are based largely on the International Passengers’
Survey, and are recognised as the least reliable element of the estimating process. ONS
are trying to improve their procedure for estimating international migration, and
methodological changes may account for a large part of the deviation from the previous
trend in Hertfordshire.
For more information about the Mid Year Estimates and their methodology, please see the Office
for National Statistics website at
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/methodology/specific/population/PEMethodology/
Source:
Population Estimates Unit, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for
Scotland. Users are not authorised to republish this material. For information about publishing copyright material,
contact HMSO at www.hmso.gov.uk.
Information Management Unit, Environment Department
HERTFORDSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL
County Hall, HERTFORD, Herts
SG13 8DN
Tel: 01992 555276
Fax: 01992 588676