an asteroid, a fisherman, oil and tortillas

an asteroid, a
fisherman, oil and
tortillas
(un asteroide, un pescador, petroleo y tortillas)
Hotel Caracol
Puerto Morelos, Q. Roo
12 Aug 07
Albert Bates
This slide show is a free download at thegreatchange.com
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 License
Global Village Institute
for Appropriate Technology
sustainability
what does that mean?
Sostenibilidad. ¿Qué significa?
In 1971 a fisherman named Rudesindo Cantarell
noticed that his nets were getting covered with oil.
En 1971 un pescador nombrado Rudesindo
Cantarell notó que sus redes conseguían
cubrieron con petróleo.
260,000,000,000
pesos per year
Cantarell is the
second largest field in history
Nearly half of the 530 billion pesos per
year that PEMEX hands to the
government comes from Cantarell.
This huge sum keeps Mexico's
government afloat.
3 other “supers”: Ghawar in Saudi Arabia,
Daqing in China, Burgen in Kuwait
Between its discovery in 1976 and 2005, Cantarell produced
11.5 billion barrels of oil.
Entre su descubrimiento en 1976 al 2005, Cantarell produjo 11.5
mil millones barriles.
On December 31, 2005 Cantarell’s proven reserves were
about 8.978 billion barrels, while yearly production was 1.322
billion barrels.
De diciembre el 31 de 2005 las reservas probadas de Cantarell
eran cerca de 8.978 mil millones barriles, mientras que la
producción anual era 1.322 mil millones barriles.
The gift of oil has ruined many a developing country. This
follows predictable steps:
1) Nationalise the oil industry under your control
2) Keep your own party in power by promising the people
huge benefits from oil
3) Make everyone so fat from oil money that they don't
develop other industries
4) Sell the resource, quickly, completely.
Mexico’s Economy Runs on Oil
In the 1940s, a geologist
named Marion King Hubbert
plotted the chart of oil
production and came up
with a new concept.
Peak Oil
Billions of Bbls per Yr
4
3.5
3
2.5
At some point, every well, field, and nation
reaches the halfway point, at which time
the quality and quantity produced declines
and the costs rise.
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
3.5
Dramatic
Improvement in Oil
Field Technology
Production
3.0
2.5
80
PRODUCTION 2.0
(Billions of
Barrels per
1.5
Year)
PRICE
(2003 $ per
barrels)
Price
1.0
0.5
0
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
High prices & advanced technology did not reverse trends!
Hubbert accurately predicted the peak of oil production in the United
States a quarter-century in advance. At the same time he predicted
the world as a whole would peak between 1995 and 2000.
SAIC/MISI
WORLD OIL SUPPLY & DEMAND:
LOWER 48 PRODUCTION PATTERN & EXTRAPOLATED DEMAND GROWTH
Extrapolated Demand Growing World Economy
120
Shortage
100
80
PRODUCTION 60
(MM bpd)
40
L 48 production
pattern
Assumed:
• Demand @ 2%
20
0
• Oil Decline @ 2%
-20
-10
0
+10
+20
• Peak @ 100 MM bpd
(Not a prediction)
YEARS BEFORE / AFTER OIL PEAK
SAIC / MISI
Knowing the approximate time of peaking permits us to begin
preparations. We need 20 years of preparation to avoid shortages.
When is the Peak?
Confidence in particular
year coming at or following onset
HIGH
MODERATE
2005
2010
2020
2035
Our predictive abilities are somewhat limited.
The 1954 vision of a 2004 PC
World Oil Production 2002-2006
and 5-year Average
We can see a
trend emerging
now, however,
and it is
becomimg
more difficult to
deny that
something is
happening.
Saudi Arabia Production
In panic, every available drilling rig
in the world has been brought to
the Arabian peninsula to search for
new supplies.
Peak Oil
Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest
oil producer, with the largest
reserves. Production seems to
have peaked now at 8 to 9 million
barrels per day.
Prices of crude oil, stable for the past 30
years, have suddenly tripled.
EIA - August 2007
As the plateau at the top gives way to a downward slide, supply
shortages may create successive economic shocks from 2008 to 2012.
Mexico
imports
more than
it exports
México importa
más que él las
exportaciones
Mexico has
been borrowing
to pay for
development
México ha sido
préstamo a
pagar el
desarrollo
Sources of Foreign Exchange:
1. Oil ($86 billion)
2. Remittances ($18 billion)
3. Manufactured goods
4. Tourism
Sources of Domestic Revenues:
1. Services (incl. tourism) - 70.5%
(58% of the labor force)
2. Industry - 25.7%
(24% of the labor force)
3. Agriculture - 3.9%
(18% of the labor force)
Mexico’s switch from a net corn exporter to a net corn importer has left
it vulnerable to price fluxuations, such as in the “tortilla wars” of 2006,
when increased use of corn for ethanol in the USA pushed up the price
of tortillas in many parts of Mexico.
Rice
Vegetables
Soybeans
Corn
Manmade cloth
Electric apparatus
Meat, poultry, etc.
Passenger cars
c
Petroleum products
Vehicle Parts
Plasticos
Mexico's Major Imports 2006
In 2001, PEMEX built the world’s largest
nitrogen injection plant to increase
reservoir pressure at Cantarell. Production
doubled to nearly 2 million barrels a day,
but in 2006, the field went into precipitous,
apparently terminal decline.
It is currently declining at 14% per
year, or half every 5 years
Raúl Muñoz Leos,
director general de
Petróleos
Mexicanos
Jul 27 (Prensa Latina): Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) announced that Mexican
national oil reserves may run out in seven years.
México, 26 jul (PL) La empresa Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) considera
hoy que las reservas probadas de crudo en el país se agotarán antes de
siete años.
Even if heavy investments were made now, new oil fields would take from six to eight
years to be ready and, consequently, Mexico may have to import oil to satisfy the
internal market, it warned.
Aunque en este momento se hicieran inversiones cuantiosas, los nuevos
yacimientos tardarían entre seis y ocho años en madurar, lo cual supone un
escenario en el que México podría, por primera vez, importar crudo para
satisfacer al mercado interno, advirtieron.
Why won’t Mexico suspend exports?
¿Por qué México no suspenderá exportaciones?
México prefiere tener
dólares en vez del
petróleo.
Pemex announced that it produced 3.18 million b/d oil in
April, down 6% from last year. About 80% of Pemex's
crude exports go to the U.S.
Mexico’s trade deficit widened in 2007 as lower oil
exports reduced overall export growth and imports
expanded at a steady pace. The actual deficit--$781
million—was nearly double the $381 million median
estimate the federal government had predicted.
Sweden will:
Peak Oil







Ration energy to all industries
Convert entirely to biofuels and passive solar for space heating
Continue the CO2 tax introduced in 1991
Increase the tax on energy use threefold by 2010
Participate in the Kyoto trading regime
Continue retiring nuclear plants as wind power comes on line
Develop 10 TWhr of installed wind energy by 2015, well
more than provided by the 8 remaining nukes
Peak Oil
The peaking of world oil production presents the
U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk
management problem. As peaking is
approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility
will increase dramatically, and without timely
mitigation, the economic, social and political
costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation
options exist on both the supply and demand
sides, but to have substantial impact, they must
be initiated more than a decade in advance of
peaking.
—U.S. Department of Energy, March 2005
Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of increases in global
average air & ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice,
and rising global mean sea level.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
February 2007
Source: Bates, Climate in Crisis (1990)
Climate Change
Climate Change
Climate Change
IPCC-3 (2001) projected temperature rise scenarios
vs. IPCC-4 (2006) observed
20°C
18°C
You are here
17°C
16°C
1900
2000
2100
Source: Bates, Post-Petroleum Survival Guide (2006)
The Farm
Unanticipated: isotherm creep
Climate Change
The Farm
Climate Change
Climate Change
Climate Change
Climate Change
The European Heat Wave of August 2003 killed 35,000
Tipping Points
IPCC-4 - Holdren Group - Pentagon Stern - Lynas - Lovelock
IPCC-3 (2001) understated the risk
It is possible we could see a 6.4°C
increase by 2100
Exceeding 2 - 2.5°C above 1750 levels
would entail intolerable impacts (ie: risk
of human extinction) due to tipping
points
We are already 1°C above 1750 levels
The observed rate of warming is
accelerating
There is no guarantee that stopping all
carbon emissions now would halt the rise
of temperature
1°C Increase - Right Now
Ice-free sea absorbs more heat and accelerates global
warming; fresh water lost from a third of the world's
surface; low-lying coastlines flooded; hurricanes increase;
droughts
2°C Increase - the Age of Loneliness
South Europe dies of heatstroke; Amazon ravaged by fire;
stressed plants beginning to emit carbon rather than
absorbing it; a third of all species go extinct
Climate Prediction and Research
(Reading Unit), Meteorology Building,
University of Reading, UK
The fluxuation between glacial and interglacial
periods going back many millions of years has
occurred in a relatively narrow temperature band.
Climate Change
Source: Met Office, Hadley Centre for
The Hockey Stick
palillo del hockey
We are now poised
to go off the chart
of our planet’s
climate history. Not
only have humans
never experienced
such a transient in
their evolution, it
seems possible
that life on Earth
may never have
experienced such a
transient.
Once we hit tipping
points that begin
cascading above
2.5°C (ie: each
degree of change
leads to the next),
we might not stop
before the Earth
reaches 18 to 21°C
warmer. At that
temperature,
Earth’s habitability
would more closely
resemble Mercury
or Venus.
The Hockey Stick
palillo del hockey
Is this the future?
World Population
9 billion
6 billion
3 billion
1 billion
Bacteria in bottle double
every minute
The bottle is full in one day
If the bacteria find
3 additional bottles,
they might last 2
additional minutes.
www.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/645
www.hubbertpeak.com/bartlett/
We stand at an unique historical moment.
Estamos en un momento histórico único.
Hairless Apes in Gasoline Crack of History?
—Wm. H. Burroughs
Monos sin pelo en la grieta de la gasolina de la historia
Easter Island: They Didn’t Make it!
Isla De Pascua: ¡No la hicieron!
Ticking Time Bombs
Bombas de tiempo que hacen tictac
Chemical plants & refineries in a reduced-regulation environment
Plantas y refinerías químicas en un ambiente de la reducir-regulacio'n
Nuclear wastes, reactors, and components
Basuras nucleares, reactores, y componentes
Bioweaponry, and accidental runaway genes
Bioweaponry, y genes accidentales del fugitivo
Super-viruses and bacteria
Estupendo-virus y bacterias
Financial derivatives and currency collapse
Derivados financieros y derrumbamiento de la modernidad
Cowboys in government
Vaqueros en el gobierno
Climate Change
Cambio Del Clima
+ Peak Oil
Petroleo Máximo
+ Toxic Timebombs
Timebombs Tóxico
+ Population Explosion
Explosión De Población
= Planetary Life Disaster
Desastre Planetario de la Vida
Solutions
The Batestrix
Extreme Warming
5-15°C
Stable
(growth)
Economy
Chaos and
Collapse
Slightly Warmer
< 1°C
Extreme Warming
5-15°C
Stable
(growth)
Economy
Chaos and
Collapse
Slightly Warmer
< 1°C
Extreme Warming
5-15°C
Stable
(growth)
Economy
The Postman
Slightly Warmer
< 1°C
Chaos and
Collapse
Extreme Warming
5-15°C
Plan D
Worst Case
Stable
(growth)
Economy
Plan B
Plan C
Plan B
Plan C
Plan A
Best Case
Slightly Warmer
< 1°C
Chaos and
Collapse
Plan A
Business As Usual
Plan B
Some Alternative (The Magic Bullet)
Al Gore
Sustained Growth
Plug-in Prius
LEEDS
Triple Bottom Line
Photovoltaics, Wind, Tidal, Biogas
Amory Lovins
Hydrogen from Solar; Fuel Cells
William McDonough
The Thurston Howard IIIs
Plan C
Cutback, Curtailment, Powerdown
“Sustainable Retreat” - Lovelock
“Conservor Community” - Murphy
Julian Darley
“Re-localization” - Darley
“Voluntary Simplicity” - Robin
Ecovillages
Victory gardens
Pat Murphy
Horses
Home fuels
Gilligan’s Island
Vicki Robin
Plan D
Die-Off, Civil Collapse, Anarchic Transition
Michael Ruppert
Meltdown
Warlords
Packs of feral pets
Survivalists with guns
Succession by other species
Dmitry Orlov
Richard Heinberg
James Howard Kunstler
Building Lifeboats
 Emergency Preparation
– Assume crisis in days or weeks
– Prioritize most urgent needs






Water
Food
Health
Shelter
Security
Mobility
 Near-term Preparation - 1 to 3 yr
 Long-term Preparation - > 3 yr
Lifeboat Strategy
The metaphor has its limits.
Lifeboats are temporary, and
they can swamp
Isla Mujeres Lifeboat
Extreme Warming
5-15°C
Plan A
Plan D
Stable Hot
Stable
(growth)
Economy
Hot Chaos
Plan B
Plan C
Plan B
Plan C
Stable Cool
Plan A
Chaos and
Collapse
Cool Chaos
Plan D
Slightly Warmer
< 1°C
Linearity
Have we fulfilled our purpose as a species?
¿Hemos satisfecho nuestro propósito como especie?
In the dark of the moon, in flying snow,
En la obscuridad de la luna, en nieve del vuelo,
in the dead of winter, war spreading
en los muertos del invierno, de la guerra que mueren,
families dying, the world in danger,
las familias que se separan, el mundo en peligro,
I walk the rocky hillside sowing clover.
camino el trébol rocoso del sowing de la ladera.
Wendell Berry, February 2, 1972
Meme being propagated is dangerous nonsense;
need a rapid change to a smart, peaceful meme.
Meme que es propagado es absurdo peligroso;
necesite un cambio rápido a un meme elegante, pacífico.
time to clean up after the party...
después de la fiesta ... tiempo limpio
Plant Trees.
Swales, Water Features, and Reforestation
Hope
complementary currencies
non-violent communication
ecovillages
consensus
eco-cities
car share, ride share
organic farming
holistic medicine
relocalization
energy descent planning
CSAs, CSEs, CSMs
vegan cuisine
natural building
alternative education
Wallace and
Gromit Paradigm
Small community
la comunidad de pequeña
Neighborhood economics
la vecindad de la economía
Vegetable Competitions
dispositivos vegetales de las competiciones
Devices based on counterweights, springs, wind-up,
gravity flow, magnets, wheels
de basados en los contrapesos, flujo de gravedad,
imanes, ruedas
Cuba’s Special Period
Today an estimated 50 percent of Havana's
vegetables come from inside the city, while in
other Cuban towns and cities urban gardens
produce from 80 percent to more than 100
percent of what they need.
With meat scarce and fresh local vegetables in
abundance since 1995, Cubans now eat a
healthy, low-fat, much more vegetarian, diet.
Photos by Fundacion Antonio Nunez Jimenez
Photo by John Morgan
Natural Food (Tsubu-tsubu):
Soba (buckwheat noodles), millet and sorghum (fried), wild vegetables and pickles.
We stand at an unique historical moment...
Estamos en un momento histórico único...
... will we surf or swim?
¿... nosotros practican surf o nadan?
It’s our choice.
Es nuestra opción.
“Don’t ask if there is a conspiracy at work.
If you are not in one, start one.”
— Catherine Austin Fitts
Water & Sanitation
Food Growing
Food Preservation
Civil Organization
Shelter
Medical
Money & Trade
Security & Nonviolence
Quality of Life
Population
This slide show is a free download at thegreatchange.com
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 License
www.i4at.org
institute for appropriate technology