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AvancesConceptuales
Mi1gación,Adaptación,y
Financiamiento
JoséAlbertoGaribaldi
SanJose,Octubre2016.
Recent work –
Mitigation / Adaptation
Tell a story of recent work through papers
•  Economics of boldness (climate policy, 2013)
•  Low Carbon Resilient Societies (Energeia 2013)
•  The middle is beautiful (CDKN/Energeia, 2014)
•  Learning by doing (current, ECLAC/Euroclima)
Economics of boldness
(climate policy, 2013)
All costs considered, the more ambitious the regime
is, the lesser the costs for most countries
Particularly true for middle and low income countries
Certainly the case for LAC
Major costs for most countries is impacts not
adaptation
Modelling Approach
Step 1: model emissions reduction scenario based on publically announced plans from regions
Step 2: Model scenarios for regional impact, abatement, and
adaptation costs in PAGE2009
Step 3: Model financial and carbon flows, prices
costs, by region
Select an abatement and adaptation policy
Global and
regional
temperature
Impacts
Costs of
abatement
Costs of
adaptation
Costs
• Input parameters are uncertain. All results are
probability distributions.
Step 4: compare results from models by regions and on the aggregate
• Input parameters are certain. Model tries to optimize
results based on MACC curves.
In Middle or Low Income Countries
Seems to be mostly the case:
Latin America – holds in all cases
Forestry fungibility, expansion of trading sectors and
supplementarity restrictions crucial
Scenario
VeryLow
Low
Effort
High
VeryHigh
2020
15,419
14965
11774
-2236
-36952
Costs in US$ Million dollars, 2005.
South East Asia -holds in all cases
Idem. Impacts reduced by 6 GDP points
per year
Africa -holds up to Effort, and then up to Very
high scenario
Much room to maneuvre, with a financial bridge
allowing taking very high scenarios
All costs in US$ Millions, 2005
SEAsia
Low
Current
Effort
High
V.High
2020
2030
2040
76207.1
188263
628539
75773
181467
599709
174509
544640
74167.2
72818.2
170290
529927
69068
169810
472868
Imagining Emissions Trajectories
USA goes further down along its INDC;
China changes growth rates early and
enters plateau;
Baseline
Other A1 countries avoid backsliding and
Russia makes an effort;
India, Africa and MENA region start
reducing emissions by 2030;
Scenario 1
LAC and Africa & MENA reduce
emissions earlier by 2020 and 2030, and
then more between 2040 and 2050.
Emissions drop to 0 by 2100
Regional
South
division
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
CACO2
IACO2
AFCO2
LACO2
Does more mitigation lead to lower collective costs?
Yes.
Base scenario 3.68 degrees - and going
up…
Scenario 1 – peak at 2,15 degrees…and
going down
Scenario 1 costs 53 trillion dollars more,
but reduces impacts in 60 trillion – a 7
Trillion collective difference
The Impact of Synergies
Gaining more by doing both Mitigation and Adaptation
Scenario 2:Assumes:
1)  The region or country acts addressing mitigation and adaptation
together, taking advantage of the synergies between these two.
2)  These synergies could reduce emissions by 15% more than the
scenario 1.
Results
A warming of 2.08 degrees by 2100, and the probability of staying
below 2 degrees increases to 51% (from 46% under Scenario 1).
A global reduction of US$ 4.4 trillion in the costs of impacts:
A global and not only a local benefit in advancing these synergies.
all things equal, the effort pays for itself.
Low Carbon Resilient Societies (2013)
Four guiding lines:
•  Links between risk, resilience, adaptation, and
security systems in society;
•  competitive dynamic advantages developed early
on;
•  synergies between mitigation and adaptation
linked with finance;
•  Climate action articulated with sustainable
development and international climate
negotiation for a regime that supports these
lines.
Middle is Beautiful (2014)
•  If developing countries advance
adaptation first and mitigation later, costs
would grow for them and collectively;
•  if they advance mitigation first and
adaptation later, costs would be reduced
•  if they are advance both at the same time,
they would be reduced further, for them
and collectively.
Learning by Doing (current)
Work on financing mitigation and adaptation
With support from ECLAC and EUROCLIMA
Identify a portfolio of projects and instruments
With and agile and participatory methodology
Consider impacts of risk, maturitym and risk
diversification – both on mitigation and resilience
•  Help share experience / cases
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
Expandiendo el portafolio de Inversión
PortafoliodeProyectosyFlujosdeFinanciamiento
La brecha - oferta de fondos
vs proyectos en NDCs
Sources
Management
•  Carbon and
general taxes
•  International
charges
•  Capital
inflows
•  Domestic
Income
•  Governments
•  Financial
Institutions
•  Private
finance
•  Corporations
•  Private equity
Financial
Instruments
•  Debt (at
market and
concessional
rates)
•  Capital
Investment
•  Grants
•  Guarantees /
risk
management
Project Owners
•  Governments
•  Public entities
•  Private
parties
NDCs
•  Mitigation
•  Adaptation
•  Capacity
Building
•  Cooperation
La necesidad de financiamiento
y proyectos
Haymásfuentes,fondosycompromisos;haymenosproyectos
efec>voseinstrumentosparafacilitarlacolocacióndeesosfondosen
proyectos.
Figura3
Haciaunmayorportafolio
RiesgoyMaduracióndeProyectos
Financiera
Nofinanciera
Riesgo
Garan9assecundarias/bajasencarbono
Fianzaspor?podeproyectos
Segurosdeinversión/porperdidade
acervos
Mi?gaciónderiesgosinoocurrenresultados
demi?gación
Portafoliosestándardecontratos(de
desempeño,llaveenmano,etc.)
Definicióndepropiedaddebienesy
acervos
Regulaciónpredecibledeapoyoa
metas
Mecanismosefec?vosdearbitrajey
resolucióndecontroversias
Centrosparavalidación,aprobación
ymonitoreodeproyectos
Maduración
Fondosrevolventesparalaestructuraciónde
proyectos/NAMAs
Subsidiostemporales/fondosdetransición
Esquemasdecoordinaciónconproveedores
financieros/Bancadesegundopiso
Contratosestándarqueintegranadiversas
fuentes
Líneasdecréditoconvariosproveedores
(mul?lateralesyprivados)
Metasefec?vasdelargoplazo
Polí?casdeimpulsoadesarrollode
proveedoresdeservicios
ElegibilidadcomoproyectosBajos
encarbono/resilientes
Coordinacióngubernamental
En?dadesquefacilitanagregación
deproyectosbajosencarbono/
resilientes
Programasdeapoyopor?pode
proyecto/porsectores
An Agile Methodology
Year 1
Year 2 - 3
Year 1- 2
Founda1on-Planning
Collec1veWork
Planeaci
ón
Planeaci
ón
Agreemts
Agarre
del
tema
Retrosp
ecKva
Evaluaci
ón
Elaborac
iònde
priorida
des
PorOolio
Method&
PlanDoc.
-Products
Regula
r
Countr
y
Product
s
Retrosp
ecKva
Evaluaci
ón
Elaborac
iònde
priorida
des
PorOolio
-Products
Retrosp
ecKva
Evaluaci
ón
Agarre
del
tema
Elaborac
iònde
priorida
des
CollecKve
refining
Preliminar CollecKve
Fullproject IntegraKon
Products
Full
project
Entrega
Vision
Plan/
Team
Planeaci
ón
Agarre
del
tema
Una propuesta de trabajo
•  Trabajo avanzando desde hace 4 meses sobre vínculos entre
mitigacion y adaptación con financiamiento con la CEPAL y
EUROCLIMA
•  Desarrollo de instrumentos y portafolios de proyectos que
combinan reducción de emisiones con incremento de resiliencia
•  Con un espiritú cooperativo y en enfásis en la creación de
capacidades
•  Con ejemplos tomados del sector energía de México y Perú, y de
este más Economía en Uruguay
•  Estaría su país interesado en cooperar?
•  Intercambio de ejemplos, hallazgos, y opciones de solución.
Información
[email protected]
T.+442085440976
M.+447511674371
S. Jose_Alberto_Garibaldi