Daniel Loza - FTTH Modelo de Negocios

Transcripción

FTTH Modelo de Negocios
Daniel Loza
Junio 2010
Agenda
1. FTTH Council – LAM Chapter
2. Retos de los Operadores en despliegues de FTTx
3. Distribución de Costos en Proyectos de FTTx
4. Parámetros Clave que impactan en la decisión tecnológica
5. Escenarios para el despliegue de FTTx
1
FTTH Council
LAM Chapter
3 | Modelo de Negocios FTTx | Jun 2010
Copyright © 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. All rights reserved.
Global FTTH Council Organizations
104+ Members
214+ Members
60+ Members
LAM CHAPTER
Started April 09
Latin America
FTTH Market Opportunity
Latin America is poised for rapid FTTH
Growth:
Market Size
390 million people
Focused Market Segment
129 million Internet Users(33%)
Market Penetration
12.4 million broadband Connections
(3.3%)
5
LAM CHAPTER MISSION
To educate, promote and support the
adoption of FTTH and the
resulting quality-of-life
enhancements.
6
Chapter Committees and Areas of Focus
Regulatory (Regional)
−
Regional, Government Relations
Technology (Cooperative)
Finances (Regional)
−
Funding, financing, business planning (share experience)
Marketing (Regional and cooperative)
−
FTTX, Chapter Outreach, Event, Intelligence, ROI, Share
experience and successful cases (New rev. Sources, new
services, New Economics)
Join leaders and decision makers who will share success stories and lessons learned about
the business elements needed to generate revenue with FTTH. Take home practical
information and marketing strategies to make your network more profitable.
•
• The Fiber-Powered Pavilion
Success Stories
•
Building FTTH Revenues
•
New Technologies
• Advanced Network Design, Construction
& Management
•
Finance & Regulatory Updates
•
The Home Networking Zone
•
The Expo Theater
•
150 Exhibitors
•
2,000 attendees
•Spanish + Portuguese presentations
www.ftthconference.com
2
Operator Challenges in FTTx Rollouts
A Services Perspective
Operator Challenges in FTTx Rollouts
A Services Perspective
Cost
TCO / CAPEX / OPEX
Network design must fit the business model
Optimum design depends on multi-variant parameters:
complex design procedure
Infrastructure implementation depends on industry typical
risks & requires control of numerous subcontractors, permits
Time-to-market
Rapid fiber roll-out: secure right-of-ways
Rapid introduction of broadband services: ensure integration
Delivery of dedicated service bundles for segmented
customer groups
Future Proof Solution
Complex technology mix (access, aggregation, IP core,
NGN/IMS, Service Platforms)
Robust, technological options with a smooth evolution from
traditional services to future IP services
Regulatory Environment
Lack of clear guidelines from regulators (infrastructure
sharing, vertical cabling)
An End-to-End, Flexible, Scalable
Multi-Service IP infrastructure
FTTx Network Rollout:
Large scale commercial deployments require Experience
Right-of-Ways and cost-effective network design
• Efficient permit and license management improves the
network deployment times and reduces rollout complexity
while flexible PON design allows future evolution
FTTH deployments in complex building environments
• New passive elements & installation methods overcome
technical barriers, provide deployment flexibility and
maintain fiber performance in difficult building routes
Multi-expertise
Customer activation & relationship management
• Multitask installation performed in both outside plant
and indoor areas requires a new personnel profile
and cost-effective customer visit management
Multitasking
FTTx last mile challenges (I)
FTTH deployments in complex building environments
FTTx deployments in multi dwelling units
present technical challenges related to the
installation of infrastructure and fibers due to:
multiple building structures and deployment
scenarios
limited cable path ways
variations in hardware and power locations
building owner preferences
existing legacy copper connections
aesthetic aspects
New passive elements and installation methods are required to
overcome technical barriers, provide deployment flexibility and
maintain fiber performance in difficult building routes
FTTx last mile challenges (II)
Customer activation & relationship management
Multi-expertise
Endcustomer
services
Customer
premises
equipment
Fiber and
copper
handling
Outside
plant
Drop cable
installation
Splicing and
connectorization
ONT installation,
provisioning and
testing
Customer
electronics
connection and
testing
Multitasking
Multitask installation performed both in the outside plant and indoor
requires new personnel profile and cost effective customer visit management.
Regulatory challenges
Right-of-Ways and cost-effective network design
The civil works market has few players, thus few
options for operators
- Civil works sector is vertically integrated & close to local
authorities
- Ducts & physical infra replication is economically &
socially not feasible
-Sharing Ducts & physical infrastructure is key
- Access topology changes do not allow to apply legacy
unbundling rules
Cost effective and flexible in-building deployments require attention of non-telecom
regulatory bodies to enhance creation of common fiber infrastructures and easy access for
multiple service providers
Local administrations may significantly contribute to the FTTx network deployment by
facilitating access to public infrastructures and coordinating build up of common passive
infrastructure
Clear and certain regulatory environment
promotes FTTx investments and technological progress
PON design and deployment challenges
Right of ways – efficient permit and license
management improves the network
deployment times and reduces the roll-out
complexity
Splice enclosure/
Fiber Junction
Distribution
enclosure w/
couplers
Design of cost effective future proof,
flexible and extendable passive optical
networks is key for long-term investments
Drop enclosure
Feeder network
144+ fiber cable
CO
Smooth evolution from traditional service
formats (POTS and CATV) to future IP based
services (VoIP, IP video, high speed Internet)
for end-customer satisfaction
Primary
Distribution
Network
48-144 fiber cable
Secondary
Distribution
Network
12-48 fiber cable
Drop cable
1-2 fiber cab le
Maximum broadband coverage with reduced
operational expense compared to present
mode of operation for optimized OPEX
Further evolution of passive elements like fibers, closures, splitters and cabinets to
better match customer requirements and to improve the network performance
Anticipate challenges early on to plan and design accordingly
FTTx Network Deployment
Challenges and Answers Summary
FTTx last mile
CAPEX & OPEX
optimization
Time to market
Technological
challenge
FTTx regulatory
environment
New passive elements
for vertical and
horizontal cabling
Market regulations
that enhance
infrastructure sharing
Leverage all existing
infrastructure
Market regulations
that lower the market
entrance boundaries
Rapid fiber roll-out:
secure right-of-ways
Alternative fiber
deployment techniques in
sewers, tunnels and pipes
New deployment
techniques
Creation of multitasking and multiexpertise personnel for
customer activation
Development of bend
–tolerant fibers
Passive optical network
Optimized fiber
planning in line with
services demand
forecast and anticipated
take-up rate
Complex technology mix
(access, aggregation, IP
core, NGN/IMS , Service
Platforms): integrate via
IPTC
3
Cost Distribution in FTTx Projects
Full Scope Network Deployment
Cost Distribution in FTTx Projects
Full Scope Project Model Assumptions:
• all figures for indicative purposes only !
On top for FTTH : Approx 20% for in-building connectivity
Network Systems
Hardware & Software
Infrastructure
Civil Works / Sites
50 %
30 %
20 %
Infrastructure
Design & Project Management
On top for E2E: cost for Operation & Maintenance
Focus on the deployment cost drivers :
Outside Plant & In-Building are key to the network rollout business case
Full Scope Network Deployment
Infrastructure Cost Distribution in FTTx Projects
OSP & Civil Works
50 %
30 %
20 %
Engineering
20%
9%
Plant Material (Fiber) 8%
Splitters & Couplers
Splice Enclosures
10%
53%
The civil works part of any FTTx project
is the major element on cost & time & risk
requires detailed local insight: survey
is highly ROW (right of way) related
contains large labor portion
Focus on the Financially Viable
Cost per subscriber for GPON and P2P
practical range for
project target cost
Impractical for P2P:
> 20 000 HP / POP
Variables: POP size and Subscriber take rate
OSP design-rules (e.g. take rate, POP size) rule the business case
Costo Total de Pertenencia
Además de la inversión CAPEX, los costos OPEX durante la operación
son parámetros que se deben de considerar en todas las fases de la red
Scenario Variables
Building Type:
Single Family Residential
Multi-Dwelling Unit
Enterprise
Applications
IP-TV
Voice, HSI
PTP, Business
Housing Density
No of buildings/sq. km
Loop length to CO/POP
Construction
Greenfield
Overbuild
Transport Facilities
Fiber owned
Leased
Outside Plant
Aerial
Buried
Conduit
Drop
Cat5
Fiber
Splitting Levels
One
Two
Technology
GPON
Cost Elements
CAPEX
OPEX
Fiber Cables:
Feeder
Distribution
Drop
Civil Work (Feeder,
Distribution):
Structures/trenches
Splicing, Installation
OSP costs
Cabinet, Splitters
Fiber Management Point
Patch Panel
Power and Space
Power node (Active)
AC
Floor space costs
Equipment
CO (shelf, packs, SFP)
ODF
ONT
CPE
Maintenance
Planned
Unplanned (testing; fault
isolation; equipment repair)
Centralized Network Operation
Staffing
Customer Care
• Service activation / deactivation
in CO
• Customer service visit
• Churn rate
Other Operation Costs
Searching for POP
Provisioning activities
Inventory updates
Factores claves del CAPEX incluyen:
Tipos de construcción (obras civiles e infraestructura compartida)
Densidad de viviendas (cuidadas, suburbios, áreas rurales)
Nivel de penetración (take rate)
approx. CAPEX per subscriber ( € )
•7100 €
•rural
•x 3
•- 40 %
•4000 €
•2000 €
approx 2300 €
•city
•1000 €
31 %
63 %
take rate %
Atención especial a la red de acometida – representa un 10% del CAPEX
Factores claves del OPEX incluyen:
Mantenimiento (programado y no programado)
Equipo NOC centralizado
Atención al Cliente (fallas, manejo de llamadas)
Conexiones y desconexiones de los clientes (costo asociado –
servicio/equipo)
Consumo de potencia
Costo de arrendamiento o mantenimiento de las propiedades
Cuotas de conexión (si están arrendando líneas o derecho de vías)
• Los principales elementos contribuyendo al costo de OPEX son los gastos
relacionados al conexión/desconexión de abonados. Esfuerzos de
publicidad para disminuir el churn deben ser considerados
• CAPEX y OPEX por abonado puede reducir drásticamente con tasas de
penetración por arriba del 30%
• Cada situación varia según el ambiente – cálculos adaptados para
información precisa de cada proyecto
4
Key Parameters Impacting Technology
Decisions
Case Studies
FTTH Technologies Overview : GPON & Point-to-Point
A basic comparison of the three FTTH Architectures.
Central Office
More
concentrated
Point
-toPoint
Access loop
Home
More
distributed
IP
Efficient Outside Plant
Splicing
Ethernet
switch
Small street/pole cabinet
No remote powering
Less maintenance, truck rolls,…
Cost-effective Fiber Feeder
Active
Ethernet
IP
Ethernet
switch
Ethernet switch
Few fibers in feeder section
Smaller duct sizes, Less RoW,…
CO consolidation
Best of Both Worlds
GPON
IP
PON OLT
Optical splitter
Passive OSP
CO scalability & Consol. (20+ km)
Fiber Cost & Management (P-to-MP)
Case Study 1: GPON vs P2P for a dense urban city
1M de Hogares Pasados en 100 Km². MDU promedio de 16HH
8 CO y 200 FFPs para divisores ópticos. P2P requiere 80 nuevos PoPs
Se asume que las obras civiles son existente en su mayoría.
Case Study 1: CAPEX/Sub vs. Take-rate
GPON es 20% mas económico que P2P @ TR de 20%.
El ahorro en positivo en todos los rangos de tasa de penetración hasta 100%
La arquitectura distribuida es hasta 10% mas costo-efectiva que centralizada
Case Study 1: CAPEX Tornado Analysis
La mayor porción del CAPEX/sub esta en la Distribución de Fibra y cableado
de MDU.
Los CPEs son el siguiente mayor componente del costo seguidos por el Switch
Ethernet y la OLT.
Los otros elementos de red no contribuyen significativamente en el costo
Case Study 1: OPEX per sub vs. Take-rate
Los resultados del modelo de OPEX muestran un ahorro de 55-60% en
comparación a una red P2P en un amplio rango de tasas de penetración
Case Study 1: OPEX Sensitivity Analysis
Los tres parámetros con mayor incidencia en el OPEX son: 1) Derechos de Via,
2) Costos de Energía (Kwh) y 3) Costos de Manteniemiento de Fibra
Case Study 2: GPON vs AE for a dense urban city
Operador con despliegue de DSLAMs para proveer ADSL/VDSL que desea
migrar a FTTH
Tipo de Subscriptores similar al caso de estudio 1
4500 gabinetes, 250-300 usuarios por gabinete
Case Study 2: GPON, AE CAPEX/Sub vs. Take-rate
El Capex de AE es ligeramente menor que GPON con arquitectura distibuida,
sin embargo no se aprecia un ganador claro.
Case Study 2: GPON vs. AE CAPEX (20% TR)
La solución AE tiene costo 0 para los PoP ya que los gabinetes de OSP son
reutilizados y los costos restantes se equilibran. Por lo tanto el CAPEX no es
un diferenciador clave en este caso.
Case Study 2: GPON, AE OPEX/Sub vs. Take-rate
El ahorro en OPEX para una arquitectura distribuida se incrementa a una
mayor tasa de penetración y está em el rango de 5 a 58% de ahorros anuales.
5
Escenarios para el despliegue de FTTH
Smart Grid / Smart Metering
La medición inteligente permite medir el consumo, tensión y potencia en las
diferentes áreas de la red (residenciales, industriales, comerciales y
subestaciones) y para diferentes aplicaciones (tarificación, optimización de la
demanda, ...).
LTE Backhaul
I/O-ONT
GPON
lines
GPON
OLT
METRO
AGGREGATION
Eth
2G/3G/LTE
Base Station
RNC / BSC / SeGW
CORE
splitter
BITS
Clock
Reference
E1 / Synch E
GPON clock “NTR”
Synch E / 1588v2
bien adaptado a los requisitos de ancho de banda de LTE
la solución más rentable a través de fibra
permite aprovechar el despliegue de FTTH actual (áreas urbanas)
continuidad del servicio y un impacto limitado sobre el backhaul existente
Desarrollo Inmobiliario
Modelo de Resguardo diseñado como parte integral del Conjunto Residencial
Infraestructura previamente diseñada para permitir una fácil y rápida
instalación.
Ingresos por servicios adicionales a los servicios de triple play.
www.alcatel-lucent.com
www.alcatel-lucent.com

Daniel Loza - FTTH Modelo de Negocios

Transcripción

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