Corp. Financiera ALBA
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Corp. Financiera ALBA
Corp. Financiera ALBA Flash note Spain/ Financial Services Investment Research 1 December 2010 Buy Recommendation unchanged 34.63 Share price: EUR clo sing price as o f 30/11/2010 Target price: EUR 57.71 60.46 vs Target Price: EUR Reuters/Bloomberg ALB.MC/ALB SM Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) Price high 12 mth (EUR) Price low 12 mth (EUR) Abs. perf. 1 mth Abs. perf. 3 mth Abs. perf. 12 mth 71,520 2.51 38.38 29.51 -8.9% 5.3% -3.1% Market capitalisation (EURm) Current N° of shares (m) Free float 35% Revisión precio objetivo: EUR 57,71/Acción. Mantenemos nuestra recomendación de Compra Hemos revisado el precio objetivo de Corp. Finan. Alba (descenso del 5%) incorporando nuestros nuevos precios objetivos para las compañías cotizadas y actualizando los precios de mercado de éstas. Considerando los precios de cierre de ayer, ALB cotiza con un descuento sobre el NAV del 46% (calculado con precios de mercado) por encima del descuento de los 10 últimos años (36%) y del descuento con el que cotiza Criteria (20%). Principales participaciones con cobertura ESN: ACS: 60% sobre GAV (Recomendación CMB: Comprar, EUR 43/Acción). Durante 9m10 se ha mantenido el ritmo creciente en el negocio internacional que representa un 30% de las ventas totales (+31%). Las carteras en el extranjero siguen mostrando un buen comportamiento: i) construcción +33% y ii) servicios industriales +42%. En servicios se mantiene una evolución positiva (+22% en Ebitda) mientras que en construcción el descenso es del 5%. En el corto plazo seguirá marcado por: i) su participación en IBE (ACS ha iniciado un proceso de venta en su negocio de renovables para obtener caja para futuras inversiones y restar argumentos a IBE en el litigio que les enfrenta) y ii) OPA sobre Hochtief. Acerinox: 18% sobre GAV (Recomendación CMB: Comprar, EUR 16/Acción). Recientemente hemos revisado nuestras estimaciones a la baja reduciendo nuestra valoración desde EUR 18/Acción hasta EUR 16/Acción (-11%) reflejando: i) menor cartera de pedidos a lo esperado por la debilidad europea y ii) menores márgenes. Por el lado positivo, destacamos la buena evolución en EE UU donde esperamos cifra record en producción en la fábrica de NAS. A estos precios, creemos que el potencial de caída es limitado ya que Acerinox no tiene autocartera y estimamos que Nisshin Steel subió su peso en Acerinox (del 11% al 15%) entre 10,5-12 EUR/Acción. Indra: 5% sobre GAV (Recomendación CMB: Comprar, EUR 17,97/Acción). Ligera revisión a la baja de estimaciones por menores ventas y márgenes vs. esperado para el conjunto de 2010. Por el lado positivo destacamos: i) reiteración del cumplimiento de objetivos para 2010 y ii) cierta mejoría esperada cara 2011. Por el lado negativo, caída del 5% en el mercado nacional que se compensa con la actividad internacional (+8%). Prosegur: 5% sobre GAV (Recomendación CMB: Reducir, EUR 40,30/Acción). Los resultados del 3T10 estuvieron en línea destacando, por el lado positivo, el fuerte crecimiento de LatAm (Ebit +50%) mientras que en Europa se mantiene el deterioro en márgenes en seguridad corporativa y la desaceleración en residencial. Cotiza con prima respecto comparables con un P/E 11 de 17x y EV /Ebitda de 8x (Reducir). v v ds v dvs dy 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 CORP. FINANCIERA ALBA Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 IGBM (Rebased) Source: Factset Shareholders: March 65%; Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Ebro Foods: 3% sobre GAV (Recomendación CMB: Mantener, EUR 16,81/Acción). En 9m10 Ebro presentó buenos resultados en línea con nuestras estimaciones y por encima del consenso. El pasado jueves 25 de noviembre Ebro anunció: i) la compra de negocio arrocero de SOS por un importe de EUR 195m (8,5x EV/Ebitda pre-sinergias) y ii) entrada en el accionariado de SOS con una participación del 10% (EUR 50m). Calificamos como positiva la compra del negocio del arroz ya que aportará valor tanto por la entrada en Holanda como por posibles sinergias en España y EE UU. Por otro lado, la entrada en el accionariado de SOS genera dudas por la estrategia a futuro de Ebro (negocio del aceite) así como por la reestructuración financiera de SOS. Con un potencial inferior al 10% hemos reducido nuestra recomendación a Mantener. Analyst(s): Jose Luis Palma Laorden Produced by: Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report) +34 91 436 7819 [email protected] All ESN research is available on Bloomberg: “ESNR” <go> Corp. Financiera ALBA Participaciones no cotizadas: El peso de las participaciones no cotizadas sobre el GAV continúa siendo bajo (8%) en Corp. Financ. Alba, siendo elevada la replicabilidad de la cartera. Las mayores adquisiciones han tenido lugar durante el ejercicio 2010. Estas son: 9 Mecalux: compra del 14,23% del capital a un precio de EUR 15/Acción (mismo precio ofrecido por Mecalux por sus acciones en la OPA de exclusión). El importe total de la operación ha ascendido a EUR 79m. Valoración al precio de adquisición. 9 Pepe Jeans: compra del 12,3% (EUR 38m) del Grupo Pepe Jeans en una operación conjunta en la que Arta Capital y L Capital adquirieron el 27,9% de la compañía por EUR 85m. Incluimos la compra en nuestra valoración al precio de adquisición. Deuda: con las adquisiciones realizadas en 3T10 la deuda financiera neta de ALB se ha incrementado desde EUR 163m a EUR 402m representando el 8,4% del GAV (calculado por CMB). Conclusión: El descuento sobre el NAV calculado por CMB es del 53% y el potencial sobre nuestro precio objetivo (EUR 57,71/Acción) es >60%. Considerando precios de mercado el descuento sobre el NAV es del 46% significativamente superior a la media de los últimos años (36%) y al descuento de CRI (20%). Mantenemos nuestra recomendación de Compra. Corp. Financ. Alba. Valoración: CORPORACIÓN FINANCIERA ALBA % Val CMB (*) % sobre GAV Valor a Mdo. ACS 23.3% 2,852 59.9% 2,511 Acerinox 24.2% 850 17.9% 694 Indra 10.0% 249 5.2% 202 Prosegur 10.0% 257 5.4% 266 Ebro Foods 5.7% 140 2.9% 133 Antevenio 20.5% 4 0.1% 4 C. Baviera 20.0% 28 0.6% 21 4,380 92.1% 3,831 378 7.9% 378 4,758 100.0% 4,209 TOTAL COTIZADAS NO COTIZADAS TOTAL GAV Deuda Financiera Neta -402 -402 NAV 4,357 3,808 Impuestos sobre plusvalías -104 -66 NNAV 4,252 3,742 20% Descuento sobre NNAV -850 -748 VALOR TEÓRICO (m EUR) 3,402 2,993 Nº Acc. sin Autocartera (millones) 59 59 VALOR TEÓRICO POR ACCIÓN 57.71 50.78 Cotización 34.63 34.63 Potencial 67% 47% Descuento sobre NAV 53% 46% Estimación: CMB (*) Valor CMB: Promedio entre valor de mercado y precio objetivo según CMB. Corp. Financiera ALBA: Summary tables Sector: Financial Services/Holding Company Description: Corp. Financiera Alba is a holding company that forms part of Grupo March, one of Spain´s leading business and financial groups. Main stake is ACS (60% of the portfolio) Page 2 Corp. Financiera ALBA ESN Recommendation System The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement) over a 12 month time horizon. The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy, Accumulate (or Add), Hold, Reduce and Sell (in short: B, A, H, R, S). Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below. Meaning of each recommendation or rating: • Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 20% during the next 12 months time horizon • Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 10% to 20% during the next 12 months time horizon • Hold: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to 10% during the next 12 months time horizon. • Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to -10% during the next 12 months time horizon • Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -10% during the next 12 months time horizon • Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a capital operation (takeover bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved or to a change of analyst covering the stock • Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer Caja Madrid Ratings Breakdown Reduce 6% Sell 3% Hold 19% Buy 59% Accumulate 13% History of ESN Recommendation System Since 18 October 2004, the Members of ESN are using an Absolute Recommendation System (before was a Relative Rec. System) to rate any single stock under coverage. Since 4 August 2008, the ESN Rec. System has been amended as follow. • Time horizon changed to 12 months (it was 6 months) • Recommendations Total Return Range changed as below: TODAY SELL REDUCE -10% HOLD 0% ACCUMULATE 10% BUY 20% BEFORE SELL -15% REDUCE HOLD 0% ACCUMULATE 5% BUY 15% Page 3 Corp. Financiera ALBA Recom m endation history for CORP. FINANCIERA ALBA Date 01-Dec-10 05-Nov-10 23-Sep-10 10-Sep-10 02-Aug-10 22-Jun-10 17-May-10 22-Apr-10 25-Mar-10 01-Mar-10 Recom m endation Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Target price 57.71 60.46 59.13 58.19 57.47 56.36 56.42 58.88 57.68 56.33 Price at change date 34.63 37.63 35.35 35.96 32.35 32.90 31.86 37.20 37.88 36.90 Source: Factset & ESN, price data adjusted for stock splits. This chart shows Caja Madrid Bolsa continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. Current analyst: Jose Luis Palma Laorden (since 08/07/2008) 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Dec 05 M ar 06 B uy J un 06 Se p 06 Dec 06 A c c u mu l a t M ar 07 H ol J un 07 Se p 07 R educe Dec 07 M ar 08 Se l l J un 08 Se p 08 Dec 08 M ar 09 N ot r at ed Information regarding Market Abuse and Conflicts on Interests available on our web page: www.cajamadridbolsa.es and our offices. The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled by Caja Madrid Bolsa, S.V., from sources believed to be reliable. This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell relevant securities. Caja Madrid Bolsa, S.V., will not take any responsibility whatsoever for losses which may derive from use of the present document or its contents, CMB can occasionally have positions in some of the securities mentioned in this report, through its trading portfolio or negotiation. Additionally, there can exist a commercial relation between CMB, Caja Madrid and the mentioned companies Page 4 Disclaimer: These reports have been prepared and issued by the Members of European Securities Network LLP (‘ESN’). ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any director, officer or employee thereof), are neither liable for the proper and complete transmission of these reports nor for any delay in their receipt. Any unauthorised use, disclosure, copying, distribution, or taking of any action in reliance on these reports is strictly prohibited. The views and expressions in the reports are expressions of opinion and are given in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. These reports may not be reproduced in whole or in part or passed to third parties without permission. The information herein was obtained from various sources. 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For disclosure upon “conflicts of interest” on the companies under coverage by all the ESN Members and on each “company recommendation history”, please visit the ESN website (www.esnpartnership.eu) For additional information and individual disclaimer please refer to www.esnpartnership.eu and to each ESN Member websites: www.bancaakros.it www.caixabi.pt www.cajamadridbolsa.es www.cmcics.com www.danskeequities.com www.degroof.be www.equinet-ag.de www.ibg.gr www.ncb.ie www.snssecurities.nl Corp. Financiera ALBA Spain Financial Services Members of ESN (European Securities Network LLP) Banca Akros S.p.A. Viale Eginardo, 29 20149 Milano Italy Phone: +39 02 43 444 389 Fax: +39 02 43 444 302 Bank Degroof Rue de I’Industrie 44 1040 Brussels Belgium Phone: +32 2 287 91 16 Fax: +32 2 231 09 04 Caixa-Banco de Investimento Rua Barata Salgueiro, 33-5 1269-050 Lisboa Portugal Phone: +351 21 389 68 00 Fax: +351 21 389 68 98 Caja Madrid Bolsa S.V.B. Serrano, 39 28001 Madrid Spain Phone: +34 91 436 7813 Fax: +34 91 577 3770 CM - CIC Securities 6, avenue de Provence 75441 Paris Cedex 09 France Phone: +33 1 4016 2692 Fax: +33 1 4596 7788 Danske Markets Equities Holmens Kanal 2-12 DK-1092 Copenhagen K Denmark Phone: +45 45 12 00 00 Fax: +45 45 14 91 87 Equinet Bank AG Gräfstraße 97 60487 Frankfurt am Main Germany Phone:+49 69 – 58997 – 410 Fax:+49 69 – 58997 – 299 Investment Bank of Greece 24B, Kifisias Avenue 151 25 Marousi Greece Phone: +30 210 81 73 000 Fax: +30 210 68 96 325 NCB Stockbrokers Ltd. 3 George Dock, Dublin 1 Ireland Phone: +353 1 611 5611 Fax: +353 1 611 5781 SNS Securities N.V. Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 162 P.O.Box 235 1000 AE Amsterdam The Netherlands Phone: +31 20 550 8500 Fax: +31 20 626 8064 European Securities Network LLP Registered office c/o Withers LLP 16 Old Bailey - London EC4M 7EG
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