Intesa Sanpaolo

Intesa Sanpaolo
Company update
Italy / Banks
Investment Research
Reason: Company Newsflow
Hold
3 April 2014
Higher quality deserves higher multiples
from Reduce
2.47
Share price: EUR
closing price as of 02/04/2014
Target price: EUR
2.70
1.90
from Target Price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg
Following the presentation of the 2014-17 business plan, we upgrade Intesa
Sanpaolo from Reduce to Hold with a new target price of EUR 2.7 vs. 1.9 as we
think its higher quality vs. domestic peers in terms of capital, profitability and
liquidity justifies the current valuation premium.
ISP.MI/ISP IM
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)
Price high 12 mth (EUR)
Price low 12 mth (EUR)
Abs. perf. 1 mth
Abs. perf. 3 mth
Abs. perf. 12 mth
211,358,700
530,833.19
2.53
1.13
10.1%
38.6%
112.2%
Market capitalisation (EURm)
Current N° of shares (m)
Free float
38,337
15,508
61%
Key financials (EUR)
Total Revenue (m)
Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m)
Operating profit (OP)
Earnings Before Tax (m)
Net Profit (adj.) (m)
Shareholders Equity (m)
Tangible BV (m)
RWA (m)
ROE (adj.)
Tier 1 Ratio
Cost/Income
Price/Pre-Prov Prof
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
P/NAV
Dividend Yield
Pre-Prov Prof per share
EPS (adj.)
BVPS
NAVPS
DPS
12/13
16,295
7,629
498
2,489
1,218
44,515
35,593
276,291
3.5%
12.2%
51.3%
3.9
24.2
0.8
0.8
2.0%
0.46
0.07
2.16
2.16
0.05
12/14e
16,589
7,886
3,619
3,619
1,826
51,896
41,147
265,739
4.8%
12.7%
51.1%
5.2
22.3
1.0
1.0
2.4%
0.48
0.11
2.50
2.50
0.06
12/15e
17,365
8,532
4,483
4,483
2,450
53,973
42,601
274,932
5.9%
12.3%
49.6%
4.8
16.6
1.0
1.0
4.9%
0.52
0.15
2.59
2.59
0.12

The 2014-17 plan is highly focused on increasing profitability, with the aim of
reaching a 10% ROE (11.8% ROTE) in FY17, based on a new segmentation of the
group activities into a New growth bank (including Private-AM-Insurance), a Core
growth bank (large parts of Banca dei Territori, CIB and International banks) and a
Capital light bank (including EUR 46bn non-core assets put in run-off mode, to be
halved in 4Y).

The plan also makes a clear commitment in terms of shareholder remuneration,
with the aim of distributing EUR 10bn cash dividends over the plan horizon, with an
additional buffer of up to EUR 8bn should further growth initiatives not materialize
starting from 2016.

In terms of liquidity, with the 3Y LTRO already fully paid back, EUR 88bn of
unencumbered eligible assets, a Loan/Deposit ratio of 92% and both LCR and
NSFR well above 100%, Intesa Sanpaolo considers to have more than EUR 60bn
of extra liquidity, currently invested mainly in Italian Govies, which represent a
significant buffer to potentially improve the NII.

Revenue growth in the coming years will come mainly from commission income
(7.4% CAGR) and will arise primarily from the New growth bank (11% CAGR) as
Intesa Sanpaolo is seeking to enhance its role as a leading private wealth manager
starting from its current raking as 4th Private bank and 3rd Asset manager in the
Eurozone and leading insurer in Italy. In our view, giving full visibility to the Private
banking and insurance activities, previously embedded into Banca dei Territori, is a
wise move from a valuation perspective, as we estimate more than EUR 3bn
capital is allocated to the Private wealth mgmt. division, due to rise to EUR 4bn in
4Y and with superior growth and profitability.

The Core banking activities will be subject to new initiatives to capture their
untapped revenue potential and extract the full value of the existing businesses in
Banca dei Territori, CIB and International subsidiaries. The targets for these
activities are based on conservative economic assumptions vs. consensus, with
only a very moderate Italian GDP growth, a flat ECB reference rate of 0.25% and
avg. 1m Euribor moving from 0.16% to 0.4% over the plan horizon. Given Intesa
Sanpaolo’s positive sensitivity to rising short-term interest rates, we consider this
prudence as a buffer for potential positive surprises.

To improve an efficient use of capital and liquidity, a Capital light bank has also
been identified for the deleveraging of non-core assets. This division is in charge of
a closed portfolio with a gross value of EUR 46bn, with 700 dedicated people. Its
target is to halve the portfolio in 4Y via the recovery of NPL for EUR 8bn, the sale
of repossessed properties for EUR 2bn, the full disposal of the remaining EUR 2bn
equity stakes, the wind-down of EUR 7bn Hungarian segregated assets as well as
of EUR 4bn other non-strategic assets.
2.6
vvdsvdvsdy
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
Mar 13
Apr 13
May 13
Jun 13
Jul 13
Source: Factset
Aug 13
Sep 13
INTESA SANPAOLO
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Stoxx Banks (Rebased)
Shareholders: Local Foundations 25%; Generali 4%;
Carlo Tassara 2%;
For company description please see summary table footnote
Apr 14
Analyst:
Produced by:
Distributed by the Members of ESN
(see last page of this report)
Luigi Tramontana
+39 02 4344 4239
[email protected]
All ESN research is available on Bloomberg “ESNR”,
Thomson-Reuters, Capital IQ, FactSet
Intesa Sanpaolo
CONTENTS
FY13 results .......................................................................................................... 3
2014-17 Business plan ......................................................................................... 4
New growth bank..........................................................................................................................................5
Core growth bank .........................................................................................................................................7
Capital light bank ..........................................................................................................................................9
Valuation ............................................................................................................. 10
Multiple comparison ...................................................................................................................................11
ESN Recommendation System .......................................................................... 18
Upcoming Events Calendar
Date
Event Type
Description
Period
15/05/14
Results
Q1 2014 Results
2014Q1
07/04/14
Results
Full year 2013 Results
2013
Source: Precise
Page 2
Intesa Sanpaolo
FY13 results
The FY13 results closed with a net loss of EUR -4.55bn due to the unexpected EUR 5.8bn
goodwill impairment, while net of this item the net profit would have been EUR 1.22bn, in
line with our EUR 1.26bn forecast.
The Core Tier1 ratio reached 11.3%, Tier1 ratio 12.2% and Solvency ratio 14.8%,
equivalent to a fully-loaded Common Equity ratio of 12.3% and a very low leverage ratio of
16.7x or 6% and allowing for the distribution of a flat DPS of EUR 5cents as expected.
(EUR m)
FY 13A
FY 13E
Differ.
FY 12A
Y/Y
Revenues
16,295
16,512
-1.3%
17,881
-8.9%
Operating costs
-8,352
-8,337
0.2%
-8,913
-6.3%
GOP
7,943
8,175
-2.8%
8,968
-11.4%
Loan provisions
-7,131
-7,644
-6.7%
-4,714
51.3%
Net Profit
-4,550
1,260
nm
1,605
nm
Source: Banca Akros
Total revenues decreased almost 9% to EUR 16.3bn or 1.3% more than anticipated, driven
by a 14% fall in NII to EUR 8.13bn, which suffered from a 8.7% reduction in customer loans
to EUR 344bn and margin compression, partly counterbalanced by a 13% surge in net
commissions to EUR 6.15bn, benefitting from a 12% growth in AUM to EUR 259bn.
The trading income was down 47% to EUR 1.16bn, as it included only EUR 277m one-off
gains vs. EUR 1.15bn in FY12.
Operating costs were cut 6.3% to EUR 8.35bn, leading to a gross operating profit (GOP) of
EUR 7.94bn, 11% lower Y/Y and with an excellent C/I ratio of 51.3%.
Loan impairments increased more than 50% to EUR 7.1bn, with a cost of credit risk of
207bps vs. 125bps in FY12, as the coverage ratios were further strengthened by 150bps
Q/Q and 330bps Y/Y to 46% on all impaired loans and to 62.5% on NPL, the highest in the
Italian banking universe (see chart below).
The group was helped in increasing the cash coverage ratio by the booking of EUR 2.4bn
one-off capital gains, mainly related to the revaluation of the 42% stake held in the Bank of
Italy.
Intesa Sanpaolo: highest NPL coverage in Italy
Source: Banca Akros
Page 3
Intesa Sanpaolo
2014-17 Business plan
The main targets of the 2014-17 business plan are summarized in the following table:
2014-17 Business plan: main targets
(EUR bn)
2013
2017
CAGR
NII
8.1
9.0
2.6%
Net commissions
6.1
8.2
7.4%
Other income
2.1
2.0
nm
Revenues
16.3
19.2
4.1%
Op. costs
8.4
8.8
1.4%
GOP
7.9
10.4
6.8%
LLP
7.1
3.0
-19.4%
PTP
2.5
7.0
29.6%
Net profit (recurring)
1.2
4.5
38.3%
Customer loans
322
369
3.5%
ROTE (recurring)
3.4%
11.8%
+8.4 pp
ROE (recurring)
2.9%
10.0%
+7.1 pp
C/I ratio
51.3%
46.1%
-5.2 pp
207
80
-127 bps
Cost of risk (bps)
Source: Banca Akros on Company data
The 2014-17 plan is highly focused on increasing profitability, with the aim of reaching a
10% ROE (11.8% ROTE) in FY17, based on a new segmentation of the group activities into
a New growth bank (including Private-AM-Insurance), a Core growth bank (large parts of
Banca dei Territori, CIB and International banks) and a Capital light bank (including
EUR 46bn non-core assets put in run-off mode, to be halved in 4Y).
The plan also makes a clear commitment in terms of shareholder remuneration, with the
aim of distributing EUR 10bn cash dividends over the plan horizon (see left-hand chart),
with an additional buffer of up to EUR 8bn (see right-hand chart) should further growth
initiatives not materialize starting from 2016.
Clear commitment of shareholder remuneration…
…with additional buffer
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo
In terms of liquidity, with the 3Y LTRO already fully paid back, EUR 88bn of unencumbered
eligible assets, a Loan/Deposit ratio of 92% and both LCR and NSFR well above 100%,
Intesa Sanpaolo considers to have more than EUR 60bn of extra liquidity, currently invested
mainly in Italian Govies, which represent a significant buffer to potentially improve the NII.
Page 4
Intesa Sanpaolo
Revenue growth in the coming years will come mainly from commission income (7.4%
CAGR) and will arise primarily from the New growth bank (11% CAGR - see table below),
as Intesa Sanpaolo is seeking to enhance its role as a leading private wealth manager
th
rd
starting from its current raking as 4 Private bank and 3 Asset manager in the Eurozone
and leading insurer in Italy.
2014-17 business plan: revenue targets per business area
(EUR bn)
2013
2017
CAGR
Core growth
13.8
15.4
2.7%
o/w Banca dei Territori
9.6
10.9
3.2%
o/w C & IB
3.1
3.4
2.6%
o/w International Banks
2.1
2.4
3.5%
o/w Corp. Centre & other
-1.0
-1.3
nm
New growth
2.5
3.8
11.2%
o/w Private Banking Hub
1.3
1.7
6.3%
o/w AM & Insurance Hub
0.9
1.4
11.7%
o/w Banca 5
0.3
0.7
23.6%
Total revenues
16.3
19.2
4.1%
Source: Banca Akros on Company data
New growth bank
The new growth engines of the group will be represented by the Private wealth
management division, as well as a commercial banking initiative called Banca 5.

Banca 5
Banca 5 is a commercial banking initiative aimed at increasing the profitability of the mass
market segment. Some 5m low-profitability clients have been identified inside ISP’s retail
bank (Banca dei Territori) to which 3,000 relationship managers will be dedicated.
This dedicated network will aim at increasing the cross selling by targeting the offer of at
least 5 key products per customer: a payment card, a credit card, a financing (either
personal loans, salary-backed loans or small mortgages (up to EUR 100k)), a P&C policy
and an investment product (saving plans and pension funds).
This cross-selling action is aimed at doubling the average revenue per customer from
EUR 70 to 140 over 4Y. We regard this initiative as nice but small, as the overall revenue
contribution should be limited to EUR 737m in FY17.

Private wealth management
The Private wealth mgmt. division will encompass all the existing activities of Intesa
Sanpaolo in this sector.
Firstly, a Private banking hub will be created with the combination of Banca Fideuram’s FA
network (5,000) and Intesa Sanpaolo’s private bankers (700), which currently manage
similar AUM (>EUR 80bn each) but with different profitability. The aim is to deliver the
distinctive elements of Banca Fideuram value proposition to the private banking clients, with
fee-based financial planning and a guided open architecture to increase the overall return
on assets from 67bps to 102bps on avg. and deliver a 6.3% CAGR in revenues (see next
charts).
Page 5
Intesa Sanpaolo
Private banking hub: size…
…and revenue generation
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo
Secondly, an Asset Mgmt hub will be created by integrating Fideuram AM Ireland into
Eurizon Capital, in order to increase the economies of scale and leverage internal best
practice. The target is to deliver a 7.5% CAGR in AUM.
Asset mgmt. hub: size (EUR bn)…
…and AUM growth
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo
Thirdly, the Insurance activities will be given full visibility with the integration of Fideuram
Vita into Intesa Sanpaolo’s businesses and a strong focus on P&C, with the priority to
launch a distinctive new offer of simple products on car, health and homes, in order to
increase six fold the penetration of P&C policies from 3% to 19% of the customer base.
Insurance hub: size (EUR bn)…
…and P&C insurance customer penetration
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo
Page 6
Intesa Sanpaolo
In our view, giving full visibility to the Private banking and insurance activities, previously
embedded into Banca dei Territori, is a wise move from a valuation perspective, as we
estimate more than EUR 3bn capital is allocated to the Private wealth mgmt. division, due to
rise to EUR 4bn in 4Y and with superior growth and profitability.
Based on these assumptions, we detail below our estimates for the New growth bank:
New growth bank: our estimates
(EUR m)
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Net interest income
107
117
127
137
147
Dividends and associates
Net fee and commission income
Profits (Losses) on trading
Income from insurance business
14
14
14
14
14
2,298
2,084
1,889
1,710
1,546
0
5
10
15
20
991
935
882
832
785
3,410
3,155
2,922
2,708
2,503
Other operating income (expenses)
Operating income
-9
Operating costs
-800
-775
-750
-725
-700
Operating margin
2,610
2,380
2,172
1,983
1,803
Net provisions
Income (Loss) before tax
-20
-30
-40
-50
-72
2,590
2,350
2,132
1,933
1,740
Source: Banca Akros
Core growth bank
The Core banking activities will be subject to new initiatives to capture their untapped
revenue potential and extract the full value of the existing businesses in Banca dei Territori,
CIB and International subsidiaries. The targets for these activities are based on
conservative economic assumptions vs. consensus, with only a very moderate Italian GDP
growth, a flat ECB reference rate of 0.25% and avg. 1m Euribor moving from 0.16% to 0.4%
over the plan horizon.
Given Intesa Sanpaolo’s positive sensitivity to rising short-term interest rates, we consider
this prudence as a buffer for potential positive surprises.

Banca dei Territori
On the revenue side of the “core” Banca dei Territori, the bank will leverage on the
“extended branch” model (longer opening hours…) to review the SME service model and to
foster Affluent customer retention, while relationship managers receiving a FA license
should rise from 850 at present to 2,000 in 2017. The target is to deliver a 3.2% revenue
CAGR over the plan horizon.
On the cost side, the specialised product factories have been merged into one entity, while
the 17 banking legal entities will be cut to 6 in two years. The group will also continue to
optimise its branch network, with further 800 closures over the plan horizon (see following
left-hand chart). Thanks to these cost-control initiatives, up to 4,500 headcount will be freedup and, through 5m cumulative training days, will be fully reallocated to new initiatives (see
next rights-hand chart).
On the cost of risk, a new process of proactive credit mgmt. has been tested in Lombardy in
Jan-Feb 2014 and the gross inflows from performing to past-due loans have been cut by
20pp vs. group average. Thanks to this and other initiatives, coupled with the expected
moderate growth of Italian GDP, the gross inflows of new impaired loans is expected to
halve over the plan horizon to EUR 8bn, sending the cost of risk down to 80bps.
Page 7
Intesa Sanpaolo
Core Banca dei Territori: network optimisation…
…and headcount reallocation
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo
Based on these assumptions, we detail below our estimates for Banca dei Territori:
Banca dei Territori: our estimates
(EUR m)
Net interest income
Dividends and associates
Net fee and commission income
Profits (Losses) on trading
Income from insurance business
Other operating income (expenses)
Operating income
Operating costs
Operating margin
Net provisions for risks and charges
Net adjustments to loans
Income (Loss) before tax
2017
6,897
0
4,605
105
0
34
11,641
-5,415
6,226
-67
-2,259
3,899
2016
6,664
0
4,263
95
0
34
11,057
-5,315
5,742
-62
-2,641
3,038
2015
6,439
0
3,985
85
0
34
10,542
-5,215
5,327
-57
-2,884
2,387
2014
6,221
0
3,759
75
0
34
10,089
-5,115
4,974
-52
-3,000
1,922
2013 PF
6,221
13
3,580
65
0
34
9,900
-5,015
4,885
-47
-5,560
-723
Source: Banca Akros

Corporate and Investment banking
In CIB, Intesa Sanpaolo will look to develop an asset-light model through an originate-todistribute approach, leveraging on Banca IMI’s national leadership in selected products
(DCM, Advisory, Project Finance). Selective growth will also be tapped into Italian and
foreign corporate customers, favouring fee-generating services, to deliver a 2.6% revenue
CAGR over the plan horizon.
Based on these assumptions, we detail our estimates for CIB in the following table:
CIB: our estimates
(EUR m)
Net interest income
Dividends and associates
Net fee and commission income
Profits (Losses) on trading
Operating income
Operating costs
Operating margin
Net provisions
Net adjustments to loans
Income (Loss) before tax
2017
2,138
0
900
650
3,687
-908
2,779
-30
-518
2,231
2016
2,066
0
878
600
3,543
-882
2,661
-25
-568
2,068
2015
1,996
0
856
600
3,452
-856
2,596
-20
-618
1,958
2014
1,928
0
835
600
3,364
-831
2,532
-15
-668
1,849
2013PF
1,863
6
815
675
3,360
-807
2,553
-117
-718
1,718
Source: Banca Akros
Page 8
Intesa Sanpaolo

International banks
Intesa Sanpaolo will start a dual strategic approach on its international subsidiaries. A group
of core countries has been identified where the presence will be strengthened: Slovakia,
Croatia, Serbia and Egypt. On the other hand, the group will re-position itself in the
countries without an adequate scale or in a turnaround situation, like Hungary, Russia,
Romania, Slovenia, Bosnia and Albania.
Based on this assumption, we detail below our estimates for the division:
International banks: our estimates
(EUR m)
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Net interest income
1,610
1,548
1,502
1,472
1,555
Dividends and associates
25
25
25
25
32
Net fee and commission income
694
655
618
583
550
Profits (Losses) on trading
120
120
120
120
110
Other operating income (expenses)
-62
-67
-72
-77
-82
Operating income
2,387
2,281
2,193
2,123
2,165
Operating costs
-1,156
-1,156
-1,156
-1,156
-1,156
Operating margin
1,231
1,125
1,037
967
1,009
-5
-5
-5
-5
-194
Net adjustments to loans
-444
-496
-547
-599
-796
Income (Loss) before tax
782
623
485
362
19
Net provisions
Source: Banca Akros
Capital light bank
To improve an efficient use of capital and liquidity, a capital light bank has also been
identified for the deleveraging of non-core assets. This division is in charge of a closed
portfolio with a gross value of EUR 46bn, with 700 dedicated people.
Its target is to halve the portfolio in 4Y via the recovery of NPL for EUR 8bn, the sale of
repossessed properties for EUR 2bn, the full disposal of the remaining EUR 2bn equity
stakes, the wind-down of EUR 7bn Hungarian segregated assets as well as of EUR 4bn
other non-strategic assets.
Capital light bank: planned reduction of non-core assets
50
Other non-core assets
Hungary assets
Equity stakes
Reposessed assets
Doubtful loans
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2013
2017
Source: Banca Akros on Company data
Page 9
Intesa Sanpaolo
Valuation
We value Intesa Sanpaolo using both our ESN Distributable Income model and a Sum
of the parts valuation, mainly based on the Gordon model. We obtain a fair value in
the range of EUR 2.42-2.95 per share. On the back of it, we increase our target price
from EUR 1.9 to 2.7 and upgrade the stock from Reduce to Hold given the limited
potential upside (<10%) on current market prices.
ESN Distributable Income Model
We value Intesa Sanpaolo on the base of our ESN Distributable Income model, a threestage DCF which takes into account: 1) the explicit net profit and RWA forecasts in the
2014-17 period; 2) the capital needs vs. a minimum Core Tier1 ratio of 9.0% to determine
the potential distributable income each year; 3) a declining growth rate for net profit and
RWA over the 2019-22 period, pointing to a long term growth rate (g) of 1.5%; 4) the
terminal value in 2022; 5) COE of 10.1% (with risk-free rate of 4.5%, risk premium of 4%,
beta of 1.1). The methodology leads to a fair value of EUR 2.95 per share.
Sum of the parts
We obtain a fair value of EUR 2.42 per share via our 2015e Sum-of-the-parts valuation, as
detailed in the following table:
Allocated
Sustainable
Capital 2015e
ROE
Banca dei Territori
9,290
15.4%
CIB
7,687
17.8%
International Banks
2,299
Private Wealth Mgmt
3,562
Corporate Centre
9,753
Total
32,591
1.2x
# shares
16,441
(EUR m)
Fair Value per share
Riskfree
Risk
Int. Rate
premium
1.5%
4.5%
1.5%
4.5%
15.0%
2.0%
35.3%
1.5%
g
Fair
as a %
Value
of total
1.8x
16,571
42%
2.1x
16,092
40%
1.5x
3,516
9%
3.8x
13,381
34%
-1.0x
-9,753
-25%
39,806
100%
Beta
CoC
P/Book
4.0%
1.2
9.3%
4.0%
1.2
9.3%
4.5%
4.0%
1.5
10.5%
4.5%
4.0%
1.5
10.5%
2.42
Source: Banca Akros
Page 10
Intesa Sanpaolo
Multiple comparison
Intesa Sanpaolo is currently trading at 1x P/BV vs. 0.8x Italian avg. and 2015e P/E of 16.6x
vs. 13.2x Italian avg. We think this valuation premium is justified by Intesa Sanpaolo’s
superior capitalisation and profitability target vs. domestic peers.
Peer Group Valuation
BANKS
Price
Market
Free
Target
Upside
(EUR)
2 Apr
Value
Float
Price
TP
BANCA CARIGE
0.67
1,457.0
37.0%
0.45
-32.8%
BANCA ETRURIA
0.94
205.1
100.0%
BANCA MPS
0.28
3,249.8
90.0%
BANCO POPOLARE
15.25
5,230.0
100.0%
15.30
BPER
9.45
3,153.0
100.0%
6.90
CREDEM
7.47
2,483.0
23.1%
6.00
CREVAL
1.66
783.2
100.0%
1.35
INTESA SANPAOLO
2.47
40,261.4
60.5%
MEDIOBANCA
8.13
6,996.7
69.5%
UBI BANCA
7.04
6,348.3
UNICREDIT
6.59
38,199.4
Banks
Rating
P/E (adj.)
P/BV (adj.)
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
Hold
nm
12.0
9.9
0.5
0.6
0.6
-
Not rated
nm
26.3
nm
0.2
0.3
0.3
-
Hold
nm
nm
10.0
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.3%
Buy
nm
27.9
12.5
0.8
0.7
0.7
-26.9%
Reduce
nm
18.1
13.2
0.6
0.7
0.7
-19.7%
Hold
16.4
16.7
13.7
1.0
1.3
1.2
-18.8%
Hold
37.5
42.0
13.7
0.3
0.4
0.4
2.70
9.2%
Hold
24.2
22.3
16.6
0.8
1.0
1.0
6.50
-20.0%
Hold
nm
17.6
13.4
0.5
0.9
0.9
100.0%
6.00
-14.8%
Reduce
44.3
25.3
15.4
0.6
0.8
0.8
66.0%
7.00
6.3%
Hold
34.6
23.8
13.8
0.7
0.9
0.8
31.4
23.2
13.2
0.8
0.8
0.7
Source: Banca Akros
Page 11
Intesa Sanpaolo
Intesa Sanpaolo: Summary tables
PROFIT & LOSS (EURm)
Net Interest Income
Commissions
Trading income
Dividends
Other Operating Income
Non-Interest Income
Total Income from Banking Business
Revenues from Insurance Business
Total Revenue
Operating Costs
-of which Personnel Expenses
Other Operating Provisions
Pre-Provision Profit (PPP)
Loan Impairment Charge (LIC)
Operating profit (OP)
Associates
Other Income/Loss(Exceptional)
Results from Financial Investments
Earnings Before Tax (EBT)
Tax
Tax rate
Discontinued Operations
Minorities
Preference Dividends
Net Profit (Reported)
Earnings Before Tax (Adj.) (1)
Net Profit (Adj.)
12/2012
9,430
5,451
2,182
39.0
-49.0
7,623
17,053
828
17,881
-8,913
12/2013
8,132
6,149
1,161
-49.0
106
7,367
15,499
796
16,295
-8,352
12/2014e
8,103
6,557
1,101
39.0
-43.0
7,654
15,757
832
16,589
-8,481
12/2015e
8,388
7,017
1,076
39.0
-38.0
8,094
16,483
882
17,365
-8,611
12/2016e
8,699
7,550
1,051
39.0
-33.0
8,607
17,307
935
18,242
-8,742
12/2017e
9,037
8,167
1,076
39.0
-28.0
9,254
18,290
991
19,281
-8,873
-245
8,723
-4,714
4,009
0.0
-117
-282
3,610
-1,523
42.2%
-433
-49.0
-314
7,629
-7,131
498
0.0
2,408
-417
2,489
-875
35.2%
-6,171
7.0
-222
7,886
-4,267
3,619
0.0
0.0
0.0
3,619
-1,520
42.0%
-200
-72.4
-222
8,532
-4,049
4,483
0.0
0.0
0.0
4,483
-1,793
40.0%
-150
-89.7
-222
9,278
-3,705
5,572
0.0
0.0
0.0
5,572
-2,118
38.0%
-100
-94.7
-222
10,186
-3,222
6,964
0.0
0.0
0.0
6,964
-2,438
35.0%
-50.0
-104
1,605
3,727
1,722
-4,550
1,218
1,826
3,619
1,826
2,450
4,483
2,450
3,260
5,572
3,260
4,372
6,964
4,372
BALANCE SHEET (EURm)
Due from Banks
Customer Loans
Securities
Interest Earning Assets (IEA)
Unit Linked Investments
Goodwill
Other Assets
Total Assets
Due to Banks
Customer Deposits
Bonds & Debt Capital
Technical Provisions Insurance (Life and Non-Life)
Other Liabilities
Shareholders Equity
Minorities Equity
Total Liabilities
Shareholders Equity (GW Adj.) (2)
12/2012
36,533
376,625
162,903
576,061
36,887
14,719
45,915
673,582
73,352
377,358
0.0
54,660
118,306
49,320
586
673,582
34,601
12/2013
26,673
343,991
166,366
537,030
37,655
8,922
42,676
626,283
52,244
366,941
0.0
62,236
99,804
44,515
543
626,283
35,593
12/2014e
26,673
335,156
168,817
530,646
39,538
8,922
43,671
622,776
52,244
372,812
0.0
62,236
83,009
51,896
579
622,776
41,147
12/2015e
26,673
346,750
171,390
544,813
41,515
8,922
44,828
640,078
52,244
378,777
0.0
62,236
92,225
53,973
624
640,078
42,601
12/2016e
26,673
359,027
174,092
559,792
43,590
8,922
46,044
658,348
52,244
384,837
0.0
62,236
102,299
56,060
671
658,348
43,878
12/2017e
26,673
372,031
176,929
575,632
45,770
8,922
47,320
677,644
52,244
390,995
0.0
62,236
112,871
58,575
724
677,644
45,280
REGULATORY CAPITAL (EURm)
Risk Weighted Assets
Core Tier 1 Ratio (ESN Adj)(3)
Core Tier 1 Ratio (Reported)
Tier 1 Ratio
Total Capital Ratio
Tangible equity as % of Assets
12/2012
298,619
11.2%
11.2%
12.1%
13.6%
5.1%
12/2013
276,291
11.3%
11.3%
12.2%
14.8%
5.7%
12/2014e
265,739
12.1%
12.1%
12.7%
16.1%
6.6%
12/2015e
274,932
11.9%
11.9%
12.3%
15.6%
6.7%
12/2016e
284,666
11.6%
11.6%
11.9%
15.1%
6.7%
12/2017e
294,976
11.3%
11.3%
11.5%
14.5%
6.7%
Page 12
Intesa Sanpaolo
Intesa Sanpaolo: Summary tables
GROWTH RATES %
Revenue Growth
Operating Cost Growth
Interest Income Growth
Non Interest Income Growth
Pre-Provision Profit Growth
Customer Loan Growth
Deposits Growth
Change in NPLs
12/2012
6.5%
-2.5%
-3.6%
17.9%
17.4%
0.0%
5.6%
13.6%
12/2013
-8.9%
-6.3%
-13.8%
-3.4%
-12.5%
-8.7%
-2.8%
9.6%
12/2014e
1.8%
1.5%
-0.4%
3.9%
3.4%
-2.6%
1.6%
12/2015e
4.7%
1.5%
3.5%
5.8%
8.2%
3.5%
1.6%
12/2016e
5.0%
1.5%
3.7%
6.3%
8.7%
3.5%
1.6%
12/2017e
5.7%
1.5%
3.9%
7.5%
9.8%
3.6%
1.6%
KEY RATIOS %
Interest Income/Avg. IEA
Interest Income/Avg. RWA
Total Revenue/Avg. RWA
Cost/Income ratio (4)
LIC/Avg. Customer Loans
LIC/Avg.RWA
Loan Loss Provisions (Balance Sheet)/Loans
NPL Ratio (gross)
NPL Coverage
Loans/Deposits Ratio
ROE
ROE (adj.) (5)
Payout Ratio
Dividend Yield (gross)
12/2012
1.7%
3.0%
5.7%
49.8%
1.25%
1.51%
1.3%
7.1%
60.5%
99.8%
3.6%
5.2%
51.2%
3.8%
12/2013
1.5%
2.8%
5.7%
51.3%
1.98%
2.48%
2.0%
9.3%
62.5%
93.7%
2.6%
3.5%
-18.1%
2.0%
12/2014e
1.5%
3.0%
6.1%
51.1%
1.26%
1.57%
1.3%
11.0%
62.5%
89.9%
3.8%
4.8%
54.0%
2.4%
12/2015e
1.6%
3.1%
6.4%
49.6%
1.19%
1.50%
1.2%
12.0%
62.5%
91.5%
4.6%
5.9%
80.5%
4.9%
12/2016e
1.6%
3.1%
6.5%
47.9%
1.05%
1.32%
1.1%
0.0%
0.0%
93.3%
5.9%
7.5%
90.8%
7.3%
12/2017e
1.6%
3.1%
6.7%
46.0%
0.88%
1.11%
0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
95.1%
7.6%
9.8%
90.2%
9.7%
VALUATION (x)
P/Pre-Provision Profit per Share
P/E (reported)
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
P/NAV
12/2012
2.4
13.3
12.4
0.6
0.6
12/2013
3.9
n.m.
24.2
0.8
0.8
12/2014e
5.2
22.3
22.3
1.0
1.0
12/2015e
4.8
16.6
16.6
1.0
1.0
12/2016e
4.4
12.5
12.5
0.9
0.9
12/2017e
4.0
9.3
9.3
0.9
0.9
PER SHARE DATA (EUR)(6)
Average diluted number of shares
Pre-Provision Profit per Share
EPS (reported)
EPS (adj.)
BVPS
NAVPS (2)
DPS
12/2012
16434.0
0.53
0.10
0.10
2.11
2.11
0.05
12/2013
16440.9
0.46
-0.28
0.07
2.16
2.16
0.05
12/2014e
16440.9
0.48
0.11
0.11
2.50
2.50
0.06
12/2015e
16440.9
0.52
0.15
0.15
2.59
2.59
0.12
12/2016e
16440.9
0.56
0.20
0.20
2.67
2.67
0.18
12/2017e
16440.9
0.62
0.27
0.27
2.75
2.75
0.24
PRICE & SHARES & MKT CAP (EURm)
Price** (EUR) (7)
Outstanding number of ordinary shares (m)
Total Market Cap (8)
Assets Under Management (bn)
Source: Company, Banca Akros estimates.
12/2012
1.3
15,502
20,152
0.0
12/2013
1.8
15,508
27,822
0.0
12/2014e
2.5
15,508
38,337
0.0
12/2015e
2.5
15,508
38,337
0.0
12/2016e
2.5
15,508
38,337
0.0
12/2017e
2.5
15,508
38,337
0.0
Notes
(1) Earnings Before Tax (adj.) = EBT +/- Exceptional Items
(2) Shareholders Equity (GW Adj.) = Shareholders Equity less Goodwill
(3) Core Tier1 Ratio (ESN adj.) = Tier1 capital less Tier1 Hybrid capital and less preference capital divided by risk weighted assets
(4) Cost/Income = Operating Costs divided by Banking Revenues
(5) ROE (adj) = Net Profit (adj) divided by the two-years (according to fiscal year end) average of Shareholders Equity excluding Goodwill
(6) EPS (adj.) diluted= Net Profit (adj.)/Avg DIL. Ord. (+ Ord. equivalent) Shs. EPS (reported) = Net Profit reported/Avg DIL. Ord. (+ Ord. equivalent) Shs.
(7) Price (in local currency): Historical Price for Historical Years and Current Price for current and forecast years
(8) Total Market Cap includes also other categories of shares (preferred and/or savings)
Sector: Banks/Banks
Company Description: Intesa Sanpaolo was formed on 1st January 2007 following the merger of Banca Intesa with San Paolo IMI. The
new group has a leading position in the Italian market, with approx. 4,700 branches, 12 million clients, total assets worth EUR 630bn,
customer loans worth EUR 340bn (17% market share), direct funding worth EUR 370bn (17% market share). The new group has also a
presence in Central-Eastern Europe, with approx. 6 million clients and 1,500 branches, ranking n°2 in Slovakia, Croatia and Serbia and
n°3 in Hungary.
Page 13
Intesa Sanpaolo
European Coverage of the Members of ESN
A ero space & D efense
BKF
Stora Enso
POH
Rexel
CIC
Olvi
POH
Airbus Group
CIC
Banco Sabadell
BKF
Surteco
EQB
Schneider Electric Sa
CIC
Parmalat
BAK
Aviation Latecoere
CIC
Banco Santander
BKF
Talvivaara M ining Co Plc
POH
Vacon
POH
Pernod-Ricard
CIC
Bae Systems Plc
CIC
Bank Of Cyprus
IBG
Thyssenkrupp
EQB
Vaisala
POH
Raisio
POH
Dassault Aviation
CIC
Bankinter
BKF
Tubacex
BKF
F inancial Services
Finmeccanica
BAK
Bbva
BKF
Upm-Kymmene
POH
Ackermans & Van Haaren
Lisi
CIC
Bcp
CBI
B io techno lo gy
M tu
EQB
Bes
CBI
4Sc
EQB
Banca Generali
Rheinmetall
EQB
Bnp Paribas
CIC
Bioalliance Pharma
CIC
Rolls Royce
CIC
Boursorama
CIC
Epigenomics Ag
Safran
CIC
Bper
BAK
Thales
CIC
Bpi
CBI
CIC
Commerzbank
EQB
BAK
Zodiac
A irlines
M em(*) Banco Popular
M em(*) Credem
M em(*) Remy Cointreau
CIC
BDG
Sipef
BDG
BAK
Ter Beke
BDG
BAK
Vidrala
BKF
Banca Ifis
BAK
Vilmorin
CIC
EQB
Bb Biotech
EQB
Viscofan
BKF
M etabolic Explorer
CIC
Binckbank
SNS
Vranken Pommery M onopole
Neovacs
CIC
Bois Sauvage
BDG
F o o d & D rug R etailers
Transgene
CIC
Bolsas Y M ercados Espanoles Sa BKF
Bim
IBG
Wilex
EQB
Capman
POH
Carrefour
CIC
BKF
Cir
BAK
Casino Guichard-Perrachon
CIC
EQB
Colruyt
BDG
M em(*) Azimut
CIC
M em(*)
Air France Klm
CIC
Credit Agricole Sa
CIC
Zeltia
Finnair
POH
Creval
BAK
C hemicals
EQB
Deutsche Bank
EQB
Air Liquide
CIC
Corp. Financiera Alba
BKF
Delhaize
BDG
IBG
Akzo Nobel
SNS
Dab Bank
EQB
Dia
BKF
Lufthansa
A uto mo biles & P arts
M em(*) Efg Eurobank Ergasias
M em(*) Comdirect
Autoliv
CIC
Garanti Bank
IBG
Basf
EQB
Deutsche Boerse
EQB
Jeronimo M artins
CBI
Bmw
EQB
Halkbank
IBG
Dsm
SNS
Deutsche Forfait
EQB
Kesko
POH
Brembo
BAK
Ing Group
SNS
Evonik
EQB
Financiere De Tubize
BDG
M arr
BAK
Continental
EQB
Intesa Sanpaolo
BAK
Fuchs Petrolub
EQB
Gbl
BDG
M etro
CIC
Daimler Ag
EQB
Kbc Group
BDG
Henkel
EQB
Gimv
BDG
Rallye
CIC
Elringklinger
EQB
M ediobanca
BAK
Holland Colours
SNS
Grenkeleasing Ag
EQB
Sonae
Faurecia
CIC
National Bank Of Greece
IBG
K+S Ag
EQB
Hellenic Exchanges
IBG
General Industrials
Fiat
BAK
Natixis
CIC
Kemira
POH
Kbc Ancora
BDG
2G Energy
EQB
Landi Renzo
BAK
Nordea
POH
Lanxess
EQB
Luxempart
BDG
Aalberts
SNS
Leoni
EQB
Piraeus Bank
IBG
Linde
EQB
M lp
EQB
Accell Group
SNS
M ichelin
CIC
Postbank
EQB
Nanogate Ag
EQB
Patrizia Ag
EQB
Ahlstrom
POH
Nokian Tyres
POH
Societe Generale
CIC
Recticel
BDG
F o o d & B everage
Piaggio
BAK
Ubi Banca
BAK
Solvay
BDG
Agrarius Ag
EQB
Arcadis
SNS
Pirelli & C.
BAK
Unicredit
BAK
Symrise Ag
EQB
Anheuser-Busch Inbev
BDG
Aspo
POH
Plastic Omnium
CIC
Yapi Kredi Bank
IBG
Tessenderlo
BDG
Atria
POH
Bekaert
BDG
Plastivaloire
CIC
B asic R eso urces
POH
Baywa
EQB
Evolis
CIC
Porsche
EQB
Acerinox
BKF
Umicore
BDG
Berentzen
EQB
Frigoglass
IBG
Psa Peugeot Citroen
CIC
Altri
CBI
Wacker Chemie
EQB
Bonduelle
CIC
Huhtamäki
POH
Renault
CIC
Arcelormittal
BKF
Electro nic & Electrical Equipment
M em(*) Campari
BAK
Kendrion
SNS
Sogefi
BAK
Crown Van Gelder
SNS
Alstom
IBG
M ifa
EQB
Stern Groep
SNS
Ence
BKF
SNS
Valeo
CIC
Europac
BKF
Volkswagen
EQB
Inapa
B anks
M em(*) M etka
M em(*) Tikkurila
M em(*) Analytik Jena
CBI
M em(*)
EQB
CIC
Coca Cola Hbc Ag
Areva
CIC
Danone
CIC
Nedap
Barco
BDG
Ebro Foods
BKF
Neopost
CIC
CBI
Euromicron Ag
EQB
Enervit
BAK
Pöyry
POH
IBG
Evs
BDG
Fleury M ichon
CIC
Prelios
BAK
Aareal Bank
EQB
M etsä Board
POH
Gemalto
CIC
Greenyard Foods
BDG
Saf-Holland
EQB
Akbank
IBG
M ytilineos
IBG
Ingenico
CIC
Hkscan
POH
Saft
CIC
Aktia
POH
Nyrstar
BDG
Kontron
EQB
Ktg Agrar
EQB
Siegfried Holding Ag
EQB
Alpha Bank
IBG
Outokumpu
POH
Legrand
CIC
Lanson-Bcc
CIC
Skw Stahl
EQB
Banca Carige
BAK
Portucel
CBI
M obotix Ag
EQB
Laurent Perrier
CIC
Tkh Group
SNS
Banca Etruria
BAK
Rautaruukki
POH
Neways Electronics
SNS
Ldc
CIC
Wendel
CIC
Banca M ps
BAK
Salzgitter
EQB
Nexans
CIC
Lotus Bakeries
BDG
Banco Popolare
BAK
Semapa
CBI
Pkc Group
POH
Naturex
CIC
Page 14
Intesa Sanpaolo
General R etailers
M em(*) Opap
IBG
Ten Cate
SNS
Ferrovial
BKF
Publicis
CIC
CBI
Valmet
POH
Fraport
EQB
Rcs M ediagroup
BAK
Trigano
CIC
Vossloh
EQB
Gek Terna
IBG
Reed Elsevier N.V.
SNS
Tui
EQB
Wärtsilä
POH
Grontmij
SNS
Sanoma
POH
BAK
Zardoya Otis
BKF
Grupo San Jose
BKF
Solocal Group
CIC
SNS
Spir Communication
CIC
Hochtief
EQB
Syzygy Ag
EQB
BDG
Holcim Ltd
CIC
Talentum
POH
BKF
Imerys
CIC
Telegraaf M edia Groep
SNS
CBI
Italcementi
BAK
Teleperformance
CIC
EQB
Joyou Ag
EQB
Tf1
CIC
D'Ieteren
BDG
Sonae Capital
Fielmann
EQB
Folli Follie Group
IBG
Fourlis Holdings
IBG
Wdf
Inditex
BKF
H o useho ld Go o ds
Jumbo
IBG
Bic
CIC
Bollore
CIC
Rapala
POH
De Longhi
BAK
Bpost
Stockmann
POH
Indesit
BAK
Caf
M em(*) Seb Sa
CIC
Ctt
H ealthcare
M em(*) Industrial T ranspo rtatio n M em(*) Heijmans
Ab-Biotics
BKF
Industrial Engineering
M em(*) Deutsche Post
Almirall
BKF
Accsys Technologies
SNS
Hes Beheer
SNS
Lafarge
CIC
Ti M edia
BAK
Amplifon
BAK
Aixtron
EQB
Hhla
EQB
Lemminkäinen
POH
Ubisoft
CIC
Bayer
EQB
Ansaldo Sts
BAK
Logwin
EQB
M aire Tecnimont
BAK
Vivendi
CIC
Biomerieux
CIC
Bauer Ag
EQB
Postnl
SNS
M ota Engil
CBI
Wolters Kluwer
SNS
Biotest
EQB
Biesse
BAK
Tnt Express
SNS
Obrascon Huarte Lain
Celesio
EQB
Cargotec Corp
POH
Insurance
Diasorin
BAK
Cnh Industrial
BAK
Aegon
SNS
Draegerwerk
EQB
Danieli
BAK
Ageas
Faes Farma
BKF
Datalogic
BAK
Fresenius
EQB
Delclima
BAK
Fresenius M edical Care
EQB
Deutz Ag
Gerresheimer Ag
EQB
Dmg M ori Seiki Ag
Grifols Sa
BKF
Korian
CIC
Laboratorios Rovi
BKF
Oil & Gas P ro ducers
POH
Eni
Royal Bam Group
SNS
Galp Energia
CBI
BDG
Sacyr
BKF
Gas Plus
BAK
Allianz
EQB
Saint Gobain
CIC
Hellenic Petroleum
IBG
Axa
CIC
Salini Impregilo
BAK
M aurel Et Prom
CIC
EQB
Delta Lloyd
SNS
Sias
BAK
M otor Oil
IBG
EQB
Generali
BAK
Sonae Industria
CBI
Neste Oil
POH
Duro Felguera
BKF
Hannover Re
EQB
Srv
POH
Petrobras
CBI
Emak
BAK
M apfre Sa
BKF
Thermador Groupe
CIC
Qgep
CBI
BKF
Exel Composites
POH
M ediolanum
BAK
Titan Cement
IBG
Repsol
BKF
M edica
CIC
Faiveley
CIC
M unich Re
EQB
Trevi
BAK
Total
CIC
M erck
EQB
Gea Group
EQB
Sampo
POH
Uponor
POH
Tupras
Novartis
CIC
Gesco
EQB
Talanx Group
EQB
Uzin Utz
EQB
Oil Services
Oriola-Kd
POH
Haulotte Group
CIC
Unipol
BAK
Vbh Holding
EQB
Bourbon
Orion
POH
Heidelberger Druck
EQB
Unipolsai
BAK
Vicat
CIC
Cgg
CIC
Orpea
CIC
Ima
BAK
Zurich Financial Services
BAK
Vinci
CIC
Fugro
SNS
Recordati
BAK
Interpump
BAK
M aterials, C o nstructio n & M
Infrastructure
em(*) Yit
POH
Saipem
BAK
Rhoen-Klinikum
EQB
Kone
POH
Abertis
BKF
M edia
Roche
CIC
Konecranes
POH
Acs
BKF
Ad Pepper
EQB
Tecnicas Reunidas
BKF
Sanofi
CIC
Krones Ag
EQB
Adp
CIC
Alma M edia
POH
Tenaris
BAK
Sorin
BAK
Kuka
EQB
Astaldi
BAK
Brill
SNS
Vallourec
CIC
Stallergènes
CIC
M an
EQB
Atlantia
BAK
Cofina
CBI
Vopak
SNS
Ucb
BDG
M anitou
M em(*) Ramirent
M em(*) Technip
CIC
Ballast Nedam
SNS
Editoriale L'Espresso
BAK
H o tels, T ravel & T o urism M em(*) M ax Automation Ag
EQB
Bilfinger Se
EQB
Gl Events
CIC
Accor
CIC
M etso
POH
Boskalis Westminster
SNS
Havas
CIC
Autogrill
BAK
Outotec
POH
Buzzi Unicem
BAK
Impresa
CBI
Beneteau
CIC
Pfeiffer Vacuum
EQB
Caverion
POH
Ipsos
CIC
Compagnie Des Alpes
CIC
Ponsse
POH
Cfe
BDG
Jcdecaux
CIC
Gtech
BAK
Prima Industrie
BAK
Ciments Français
CIC
Kinepolis
BDG
I Grandi Viaggi
BAK
Prysmian
BAK
Cramo
POH
Lagardere
CIC
Ibersol
CBI
Reesink
SNS
Deceuninck
BDG
M 6-M etropole Television
CIC
Intralot
IBG
Sabaf
BAK
Eiffage
CIC
M ediaset
BAK
M elia Hotels International
BKF
Singulus Technologies
EQB
Ellaktor
IBG
Nextradiotv
CIC
Nh Hoteles
BKF
Smt Scharf Ag
EQB
Fcc
BKF
Nrj Group
CIC
M em(*)
BAK
IBG
M em(*)
CIC
CIC
Page 15
Intesa Sanpaolo
P e rs o na l G o o ds
CIC
A lbio ma
CIC
BAK
E.On
EQB
Fiera M ilano
BAK
Edp
CB I
Imtech
SNS
Edp Reno váveis
BAK
Lassila & Tikano ja
P OH
Elia
B DG
Gamesa
B KF
Randstad
SNS
Enagas
B KF
P ho enix So lar
EQB
Usg P eo ple
SNS
Endesa
B KF
BAK
Sma So lar Techno lo gy
EQB
T e c hno lo gy H a rdwa re & E quipm
M e me
( *)
nt Enel
Gerry Weber
EQB
So larwo rld
EQB
A lcatel-Lucent
CIC
Falck Renewables
BAK
Hermes Intl.
CIC
So lutro nic
EQB
A sm Internatio nal
SNS
Fo rtum
P OH
Hugo B o ss
EQB
S o f t wa re & C o m put e r S e rv ic
M eesm ( *) A sml
SNS
Gas Natural Feno sa
B KF
Interparfums
CIC
A ffecto
B esi
SNS
Hera
BAK
Kering
CIC
A kka Techno lo gies
CIC
Ericsso n
P OH
Iberdro la
B KF
Lo ewe
EQB
A lten
CIC
Gigaset
EQB
Iren
BAK
Luxo ttica
BAK
A ltran
CIC
No kia
P OH
P ublic P o wer Co rp
IB G
Lvmh
CIC
A madeus
B KF
Okmetic
P OH
Red Electrica De Espana
B KF
CIC
Ro o dmicro tec
SNS
Ren
CB I
Stmicro electro nics
BAK
Rwe
EQB
A didas
M e m ( *) Wdp
B DG
EQB
R e ne wa ble E ne rgy
A dler M o demaerkte
EQB
Daldrup & So ehne
EQB
A mer Spo rts
P OH
Deutsche B io gas
EQB
B asic Net
BAK
Enel Green P o wer
B eiersdo rf
EQB
Christian Dio r
CIC
Geo x
Edenred
M e m ( *) Ei To wers
P OH
CB I
BAK
M arimekko
P OH
A to s
P uma
EQB
B asware
Richemo nt
CIC
B ull
CIC
Suess M icro tec
EQB
Snam
BAK
Safilo
BAK
Cenit
EQB
Teleste
P OH
Terna
BAK
Salvato re Ferragamo
BAK
Co mptel
P OH
T e le c o m m unic a t io ns
Sarantis
IB G
Digia
P OH
A co tel
BAK
Swatch Gro up
CIC
Do cdata
SNS
B elgaco m
B DG
To d'S
BAK
Ekino ps
CIC
B o uygues
CIC
Van De Velde
B DG
Engineering
BAK
Deutsche Teleko m
EQB
BAK
Esi Gro up
Zucchi
R eal Estate
M e m ( *) Exact Ho lding Nv
P OH
M e m ( *)
CIC
Drillisch
EQB
SNS
Elisa
P OH
A edifica
B DG
Exprivia
BAK
Eutelsat Co mmunicatio ns Sa
CIC
A scencio
B DG
F-Secure
P OH
Freenet
EQB
A teno r
B DG
Gamelo ft
CIC
Go wex
B KF
B animmo
B DG
Gft Techno lo gies
EQB
Iliad
CIC
B efimmo
B DG
Guillemo t Co rpo ratio n
CIC
Jazztel
B KF
B eni Stabili
BAK
I:Fao A g
EQB
Kpn Teleco m
SNS
Cityco n
P OH
Ict A uto matisering
SNS
M o bistar
B DG
Co finimmo
B DG
Indra Sistemas
B KF
Numericable
CIC
Co rio
B DG
No vabase
CB I
Orange
CIC
Deutsche Euro sho p
EQB
Ordina
SNS
Ote
IB G
Ho me Invest B elgium
B DG
P si
EQB
Ses
CIC
Igd
BAK
Realdo lmen
B DG
Teleco m Italia
BAK
Intervest Offices & Wareho uses
B DG
Reply
BAK
Telefo nica
B KF
Leasinvest Real Estate
B DG
Rib So ftware
EQB
Telenet Gro up
B DG
M o ntea
B DG
Seven P rinciples A g
EQB
Teliaso nera
P OH
Realia
B KF
Tie Kinetix
SNS
Tiscali
BAK
Retail Estates
B DG
Tieto
P OH
Turkcell
IB G
Spo nda
P OH
To mto m
SNS
United Internet
EQB
Techno po lis
P OH
Winco r Nixdo rf
EQB
Vo dafo ne
Unibail-Ro damco
B DG
S uppo rt S e rv ic e s
Vastned Retail
B DG
B atenburg
SNS
A 2A
BAK
Vastned Retail B elgium
B DG
B runel
SNS
A ccio na
B KF
Vib Vermo egen
EQB
B ureau Veritas S.A .
CIC
A cea
BAK
M e m ( *) Ut ilit ie s
BAK
M e m ( *)
LEGEND: BAK: Banca Akros; BDG: Bank Degroof; BKF: Beka Finance; CIC: CM CIC Securities; CBI: Caixa-Banca de Investimento; EQB: Equinet bank; IBG: Investment Bank of Greece, POH: Pohjola
Bank; SNS: SNS Securities as of 7th March 2014
Page 16
Intesa Sanpaolo
List of ESN Analysts (**)
Ari Agopyan
Christian Auzanneau
Helena Barbosa
Javier Bernat
Dimitris Birbos
Agnès Blazy
Jean-Pascal Brivady
Giada Cabrino, CIIA
Arnaud Cadart
Niclas Catani
Jean-Marie Caucheteux
Pierre Chedeville
Emmanuel Chevalier
Florent Couvreur
Edwin de Jong
Nadeshda Demidova
Martijn den Drijver
Christian Devismes
Andrea Devita, CFA
Hans D'Haese
Ingbert Faust, CEFA
Rafael Fernández de Heredia
Stefan Freudenreich, CFA
Gabriele Gambarova
Claudio Giacomiello, CFA
Ana Isabel González García CIIA
Arsène Guekam
Bernard Hanssens
Philipp Häßler, CFA
Carlos Jesus
Bart Jooris, CFA
Jean-Michel Köster
Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq
Sébastien Liagre
Konrad Lieder
CIC
CIC
CBI
BKF
IBG
CIC
CIC
BAK
CIC
POH
BDG
CIC
CIC
CIC
SNS
EQB
SNS
CIC
BAK
BDG
EQB
BKF
EQB
BAK
BAK
BKF
CIC
BDG
EQB
CBI
BDG
CIC
CIC
CIC
EQB
+33 1 45 96 85 80
+33 4 78 92 01 85
+351 21 389 6831
+34 91 436 7816
+30 210 81 73 392
+33 1 45 96 77 61
+33 4 78 92 02 25
+39 02 4344 4092
+33 1 45 96 77 41
+358 10 252 8780
+32 2 287 99 20
+33 1 45 96 78 71
+33 1 45 96 77 42
+33 1 45 96 77 60
+312 0 5508569
+49 69 58997 434
+312 0 5508636
+33 1 45 96 77 63
+39 02 4344 4031
+32 (0) 2 287 9223
+49 69 58997 410
+34 91 436 78 08
+49 69 58997 437
+39 02 43 444 289
+39 02 4344 4269
+34 91 436 78 09
+33 1 45 96 78 76
+32 (0) 2 287 9689
+49 69 58997 414
+351 21 389 6812
+32 2 287 92 79
+33 1 45 96 77 17
+33 1 45 96 91 04
+33 1 45 96 90 34
+49 69 5899 7436
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Konstantinos Manolopoulos
Dario Michi
Marietta Miemietz CFA
José Mota Freitas, CFA
Henri Parkkinen
Dirk Peeters
Adrian Pehl, CFA
Victor Peiro Pérez
Francis Prêtre
Francesco Previtera
Jari Raisanen
Hannu Rauhala
Matias Rautionmaa
Eric Ravary
Iñigo Recio Pascual
Philipp Rigters
André Rodrigues
Jean-Luc Romain
Jochen Rothenbacher, CEFA
Vassilis Roumantzis
Sonia Ruiz De Garibay
Antti Saari
Paola Saglietti
Francesco Sala
Lemer Salah
Michael Schaefer
Holger Schmidt, CEFA
Tim Schuldt, CFA
Pekka Spolander
Gert Steens
Kimmo Stenvall
Natalia Svyrou-Svyriadi
Luigi Tramontana
Johan van den Hooven
IBG
BAK
EQB
CBI
POH
BDG
EQB
BKF
CIC
BAK
POH
POH
POH
CIC
BKF
EQB
CBI
CIC
EQB
IBG
BKF
POH
BAK
BAK
SNS
EQB
EQB
EQB
POH
SNS
POH
IBG
BAK
SNS
+30 210 817 3388
+39 02 4344 4237
+49-69-58997-439
+351 22 607 09 31
+358 10 252 4409
+32 2 287 97 16
+49 69 58997 438
+34 91 436 7812
+33 4 78 92 02 30
+39 02 4344 4033
+358 10 252 4504
+358 10 252 4392
+358 10 252 4408
+33 1 45 96 79 53
+34 91 436 7814
+49 69 58997 413
+351 21 389 68 39
+33 1 45 96 77 36
+49 69 58997 415
+30 2108173394
+34 91 436 7841
+358 10 252 4359
+39 02 4344 4287
+39 02 4344 4240
'+312 0 5508516
+49 69 58997 419
+49 69 58 99 74 32
+49 69 5899 7433
+358 10 252 4351
+312 0 5508639
+358 10 252 4561
+30 210 81 73 384
+39 02 4344 4239
+312 0 5508518
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
(**) excluding: strategists, macroeconomists, heads of research not covering specific stocks, credit analysts, technical analysts
Page 17
Intesa Sanpaolo
ESN Recommendation System
The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the
basis of a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital
reimbursement) over a 12 month time horizon.
The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories:
Buy, Accumulate (or Add), Hold, Reduce and Sell (in short: B, A, H, R, S).
Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate
the stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.
Meaning of each recommendation or rating:
Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 20% during the next
12 months time horizon
Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 10% to 20%
during the next 12 months time horizon
Hold: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to 10% during the
next 12 months time horizon.
Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to -10% during the
next 12 months time horizon
Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -10% during the next
12 months time horizon
Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a capital operation (takeover bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a
related party of the issuer is or could be involved or to a change of analyst
covering the stock
Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of
the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer
Banca Akros Ratings Breakdown
History of ESN Recommendation System
Since 18 October 2004, the Members of ESN are using an Absolute Recommendation System
(before was a Relative Rec. System) to rate any single stock under coverage.
Since 4 August 2008, the ESN Rec. System has been amended as follow.
Time horizon changed to 12 months (it was 6 months)
Recommendations Total Return Range changed as below:
TODAY
SELL
REDUCE
-10%
HOLD
0%
ACCUMULATE
10%
BUY
20%
BEFORE
SELL
-15%
REDUCE
HOLD
0%
ACCUMULATE
5%
BUY
15%
Page 18
Intesa Sanpaolo
Il presente documento è stato redatto da Luigi Tramontana (socio AIAF) che svolge funzioni di analista presso Banca Akros SpA ("Banca
Akros"), soggetto responsabile della produzione del documento stesso.
Banca Akros è una banca autorizzata anche alla prestazione di servizi di investimento appartenente al Gruppo Bipiemme Banca Popolare
di Milano (il “Gruppo”), ed è soggetta all’attività di direzione e coordinamento di Banca Popolare di Milano (la “Capogruppo”). La banca è
iscritta all’albo delle Banche al n. 5328 ed è soggetta alla regolamentazione e alla vigilanza di Banca d’Italia e Consob. La banca ha
prodotto il presente documento solo per i propri clienti professionali ai sensi della Direttiva 2004/39/CE e dell’Allegato 3 del Regolamento
Intermediari Consob. Esso è distribuito dal giorno 3 aprile 2014.
Banca Akros, ai sensi degli artt. 69 quater e quinquies del Regolamento Consob in materia di Emittenti, dichiara di non avere propri rilevanti
interessi finanziari negli strumenti finanziari oggetto del presente documento ovvero rilevanti conflitti di interesse derivanti da rapporti con
l’emittente detti strumenti finanziari (l’”Emittente”) ovvero, più in generale, derivanti da operazioni descritte nel presente documento. Banca
Akros dichiara di non essere a conoscenza della sussistenza di rilevanti interessi finanziari e/o di rilevanti conflitti di interesse della
Capogruppo nei confronti dell’Emittente.
L’analista di Banca Akros Luigi Tramontana (socio AIAF), che ha redatto il presente documento, ha maturato una significativa esperienza
presso Banca Akros e altri intermediari. L’analista e i suoi familiari non detengono Strumenti Finanziari emessi dagli Emittenti oggetto di
analisi, né svolgono ruoli di amministrazione, direzione o consulenza per gli Emittenti, né l’analista riceve bonus, stipendi o altre forme di
retribuzione correlate, direttamente o indirettamente, al successo di operazioni di investment banking.
Banca Akros, nell’ultimo anno, ha pubblicato sulla società oggetto di analisi tre studi in data 25 e 28 marzo e 3 aprile 2014.
La Banca rende disponibili ulteriori informazioni, ai sensi delle disposizioni Consob di attuazione dell’art. 114, comma 8 del D.Lgs 58/98
(TUF) ed in particolare ai sensi dell’art. 69 quinquies, comma 2, del Regolamento Emittenti, presso il proprio sito internet, si veda:
http://www.bancaakros.it/media/990634/3-mktabuse-daf-sitointernet-conflitti-aggiornato-31-01-2014.pdf
Le informazioni e le opinioni contenute in questo documento si basano su fonti ritenute attendibili. La provenienza di dette informazioni e il
fatto che si tratti di informazioni già rese note al pubblico è stata oggetto di ogni ragionevole verifica da parte di Banca Akros. Banca Akros
tuttavia, nonostante le suddette verifiche, non può garantire in alcun modo né potrà in nessun caso essere ritenuta responsabile qualora le
informazioni alla stessa fornite, riprodotte nel presente documento, ovvero sulla base delle quali è stato redatto il presente documento, si
rivelino non accurate, complete, veritiere ovvero corrette.
Il documento è fornito a solo scopo informativo; esso non costituisce proposta contrattuale, offerta o sollecitazione all’acquisto e/o alla
vendita di strumenti finanziari o, in genere, all’investimento, né costituisce consulenza in materia di investimenti. Banca Akros non fornisce
alcuna garanzia di raggiungimento di qualunque previsione e/o stima contenuto nel documento stesso. Inoltre Banca Akros non assume
alcuna responsabilità in merito a qualsivoglia conseguenza e/o danno derivante dall’utilizzo del presente documento e/o delle informazioni
in esso contenute. Le informazioni o le opinioni ivi contenute possono variare senza alcun conseguente obbligo di comunicazione in capo a
Banca Akros, fermi restando eventuali obblighi di legge o regolamentari.
E’ vietata la riproduzione e/o la ridistribuzione, in tutto o in parte, direttamente o indirettamente, del presente documento, non
espressamente autorizzata.
Recommendation history for INTESA SANPAOLO
Date
03-Apr-14
24-Mar-14
14-Oct-13
29-Jul-13
06-Mar-13
26-Jul-12
03-Feb-12
09-Nov-11
04-Nov-11
23-Aug-11
Recommendation
Hold
Reduce
Reduce
Hold
Accumulate
Accumulate
Accumulate
Buy
Buy
Buy
Target price
2.70
1.90
1.60
1.45
1.45
1.30
1.65
1.45
1.50
1.80
Price at change date
2.47
2.25
1.77
1.39
1.26
0.97
1.56
1.15
1.13
1.10
Source: Factset & ESN, price data adjusted for stock splits.
This chart shows Banca Akros continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. Current analyst: Luigi
Tramontana (since 05/01/2006)
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
Apr May Jun
13
13
13
Jul
13
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
13
13
13
13
13
14
Price history
Buy
Accumulat
Feb Mar
14 14
Apr May
14
14
Target price history
Hold
Reduce
Sell
Not rated
Page 19
Disclaimer:
These reports have been prepared and issued by the Members of European
Securities Network LLP (‘ESN’). ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any
director, officer or employee thereof), are neither liable for the proper and
complete transmission of these reports nor for any delay in their receipt. Any
unauthorised use, disclosure, copying, distribution, or taking of any action in
reliance on these reports is strictly prohibited. The views and expressions in the
reports are expressions of opinion and are given in good faith, but are subject to
change without notice. These reports may not be reproduced in whole or in part
or passed to third parties without permission. The information herein was
obtained from various sources. ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any
director, officer or employee thereof) do not guarantee their accuracy or
completeness, and neither ESN, nor its Members, nor its Members’ affiliates (nor
any director, officer or employee thereof) shall be liable in respect of any errors or
omissions or for any losses or consequential losses arising from such errors or
omissions. Neither the information contained in these reports nor any opinion
expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any
securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities
(‘related investments’). These reports are prepared for the clients of the Members
of ESN only. They do not have regard to the specific investment objectives,
financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may
receive any of these reports. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the
appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed
or recommended in these reports and should understand that statements
regarding future prospects may not be realised. Investors should note that income
from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value
may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally
invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or
income of any security or related investment mentioned in these reports. In
addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose value are influenced by the
currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
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ESN Member websites:
www.bancaakros.it regulated by the CONSOB - Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa
www.bekafinance.com regulated by CNMV - Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores
www.caixabi.pt regulated by the CMVM - Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários
www.cgdsecurities.com.br regulated by the CVM – Comissão de Valores Mobiliários
www.cmcics.com regulated by the AMF - Autorité des marchés financiers
www.degroof.be regulated by the FSMA - Financial Services and Markets Authority
www.equinet-ag.de regulated by the BaFin - Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht
www.ibg.gr regulated by the HCMC - Hellenic Capital Market Commission
www.pohjola.com regulated by the Financial Supervision Authority
www.snssecurities.nl regulated by the AFM - Autoriteit Financiële Markten
Intesa Sanpaolo
Italy
Banks
Members of ESN (European Securities Network LLP)
Banca Akros S.p.A.
Viale Eginardo, 29
20149 MILANO
Italy
Phone: +39 02 43 444 389
Fax: +39 02 43 444 302
Equinet Bank AG
Gräfstraße 97
60487 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Phone:+49 69 – 58997 – 410
Fax:+49 69 – 58997 – 299
Bank Degroof
Rue de I’Industrie 44
1040 Brussels
Belgium
Phone: +32 2 287 91 16
Fax: +32 2 231 09 04
Investment Bank of Greece
32 Aigialeias Str & Paradissou,
151 25 Maroussi,
Greece
Tel: +30 210 81 73 383
BEKA Finance
Serrano, 39
28001 Madrid
Spain
Phone: +34 91 436 7813
Fax: +34 91 577 3770
Pohjola Bank plc
P.O.Box 308
FI- 00013 Pohjola
Finland
Phone: +358 10 252 011
Fax: +358 10 252 2703
Caixa-Banco de Investimento
Rua Barata Salgueiro, nº 33
1269-057 Lisboa
Portugal
Phone: +351 21 313 73 00
Fax: +351 21 389 68 98
CM - CIC Securities
6, avenue de Provence
75441 Paris
Cedex 09
France
Phone: +33 1 4596 7940
Fax: +33 1 4596 7748
SNS Securities N.V.
Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 162
P.O.Box 235
1000 AE Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Phone: +31 20 550 8500
Fax: +31 20 626 8064