2014 Draft Guide - Baseball Professor
Transcripción
2014 Draft Guide - Baseball Professor
Baseball Professor 2014 Draft Guide The Professors: Bryan Curley & George Fitopoulos The Teacher’s Assistants: Adam Nodiff, Eric Broutman, Jake Devereaux, Jon Schorah, Matt Commins, Matt Serocki, Paul Beck, & Zach Pincince What you’ll find inside: (Click on sections to jump to page) Foreword........................................................................................................................................................3 Reference Tools.............................................................................................................................................. 2013 Park Factors by Handedness............................................................................................4 ERA / WHIP Conversion Table....................................................................................................4 Closer Depth Chart.........................................................................................................................5 2013 Position Previews (3-year trends, prospects, rankings, profiles, projections)............... Catchers..............................................................................................................................................6 First Basemen................................................................................................................................ 15. Second Basemen.......................................................................................................................... 29 Third Basemen............................................................................................................................... 40. Shortstops...................................................................................................................................... 51. Outfielders...................................................................................................................................... 62 Starting Pitchers........................................................................................................................... 83 A Message from the Professors: It’s hard to believe it’s been a whole year since our last Draft Guide went out (actually it’s been 11 months), and what a year it’s been! In that time we’ve redesigned the site’s layout, added six writers to our staff, and seen our readership grow immensely. We definitely want to use this space to thank each and every one of you for visiting our site, downloading our guide, and ensuring that at least one person sees the product of an immense amount of time and effort. We’d also like to thank our entire writing staff (alphabetically: Paul Beck, Eric Broutman, Matt Commins, Jake Devereaux, Adam Nodiff, Jon Schorah, Matt Serocki, and Zach Pincince) for their constant contributions. When we launched Baseball Professor in December of 2009, we were able to handle the writing demands of a small site with just two writers. With our readership growing like crazy, we now have to divert much of that time to non-writing tasks, and our Elite 8 has supported us at every turn. Thanks a lot, guys. Again, thanks for reading our site and downloading this Draft Guide, and we hope you’ll consider making us one of your preferred sources of fantasy information! Bryan Curley & George Fitopoulos Frequently Asked Questions How did you come up with your projections? Over the years we’ve developed and improved a rankings algorithm that spits out computer generated projections. The algorithm factors in past performance, rating recent seasons more heavily, and also adjusts for age and environment (ballpark, lineup, etc.). Because no computer-generated system can perfectly account for all variables (manager changes, new parks, adding a pitch, injuries or surgery to name a few), we then go and adjust every projection one by one. It’s a tedious, pain-staking process, but we’re very proud of our projections, and they’ve performed very well in past years. How did you rank players? All players were ranked based on their CVA, which stands for Category Value Added. CVA is our unique player ranking algorithm that quantifies a player’s value based on the specific context of the league for that season. It leverages marginal analysis to give a “bonus” to players that produce at the extremes of scarcer stats (like HR) and reduces the value of players who produce at the extremes of more commonly found stats (like SB). To use our favorite examples, Billy Hamilton is projected by many (including us) to steal at least 80 bases, but not all 80 steals are worth the same because you probably have other players on your team who can steal bases as well. Steals 70-80 provide less value because there’s a greater likelihood that you’re just “piling it on.” Conventional rankings systems don’t account for this. Ours does. On the other end of the spectrum is Chris Davis’ 2013 season. In today’s environment, elite HR hitters are rare and it’s less likely you’re going to have a lot of other great HR contributors. Because you can’t just turn to free agency for a 30 HR bat, homers 40-50 and beyond from Davis are increasingly valuable. With CVA, he’s valued properly. There is no positional component to CVA at this time. For a video explanation of how CVA works, check this out. Why don’t you factor position into your rankings? It’s impossible to provide one set of rankings that can be applied to every type of league. Instead, we’ve projected, rated, and ranked players based on their stat lines without any sort of position factor included. It’s up to you to decide how shallow or deep a position is based on your league’s settings and eligibility requirements and to adjust player value accordingly. (And of course, we’ll be happy to help!) To use an example, in a one-catcher 10-team league, catcher is actually sort of deep. Is our projected Miguel Montero line (.280/15/77) really that terrible? No, and in a 10-team league he’ll be just fine, so you don’t need to pounce on an elite catcher early. But in a one-catcher 16-team league, you’ll hit that drop-off where you’re no longer guaranteed Montero or a comparable option. Instead, someone’s going to have to start Welington Castillo, Wilson Ramos, or some other catcher with questionable playing time or other concerns. While other positions are exposed as well, none gets as exposed as catcher. Why didn’t you do write-ups for relievers? Reliever value changes so quickly based on bullpen role and reliever’s are typically susceptible to more volatile year-to-year swings, so that we didn’t feel it was worth the time (both for us writing and you reading). For relievers, all you really need is a bullpen depth cheat sheet, which we’ve included. It shows who’s closing, who’s next in line, and gives some notes on each bullpen. Don’t overcomplicate things. That’s all you need. Do you offer any personalized fantasy advice? Aside from providing tid-bits of advice to people tweeting at us (@BaseballProf), emailing us, or commenting on one of our posts, we’ll actually be unveiling some very cool tools that will be available for purchase in the coming weeks. Don’t worry, they’re nothing expensive, but they’re very powerful and will simplify the draft research and player valuation processes. More information will be forthcoming shortly. You guys are awesome. Thanks! If you feel like supporting the site with a small donation, you can do that here. We’ll use the funds to pay our monthly and annual fees such as site hosting, our live chat service provider, our email service, future additions to the site, and other various expenses. Who is Foul Paul? I dunno, he’s this guy that has a weird, cynical sense of humor. Generally, people seem responsive to what he writes, so we let him do it. Foul Paul! is a weekly column every Friday during the MLB season. Do you have a podcast? No, we have a Profcast! You can listen to it via iTunes here. (We swear this isn’t blatant, shameless promotion. People ask us this a lot.) 4 | Baseball Professor 2013 Park Factors by Handedness with Avg. HR/FB Rate How to use this tool: The table is color-coded to show the Top 10% (in green) and the Bottom 10% (in red) in each column. The numbers are park factors, which tell you the relative ease in which a RHB/LHB had scoring runs, hitting singles, etc. The scale works on the basis that 100 is league average so 131 = 31% better than league average and 82 = 18% below league average. The final column shows each park's HR/FB rate over the last three years. This was calculated from each team's pitcher's home splits and can be used to show which parks you can expect pitchers to post higher HR/FB rates than usual. 2013 Park Factors by Handedness & Avg. HR/FB Rate NL West NL Central NL East AL West AL Central AL East Division Park Team Camden Yards Fenway Park Rogers Centre Tropicana Park Yankee Stadium Comerica Park Jacobs Field Kauffman Stadium Target Field U.S. Cellular Field Angel Stadium of Anaheim Ballpark at Arlington Minute Maid Park Oakland Colliseum Safeco Field Turner Field Citi Field Citizens Bank Park Marlins Park Nationals Park Busch Stadium Great American Ballpark Miller Park PNC Park Wrigley Field AT&T Park Chase Field Coors Field Dodger Stadium Petco Park BAL BOS TOR TB NYY DET CLE KC MIN CHW LAA TEX HOU OAK SEA ATL NYM PHI MIA WAS STL CIN MIL PIT CHC SF ARI COL LAD SD R LHB 115 101 102 91 105 117 101 105 100 104 97 112 101 83 86 103 88 108 92 104 95 108 99 93 106 79 104 140 97 86 1B RHB 104 111 112 87 110 107 83 103 103 111 88 109 100 98 91 97 88 99 109 99 93 102 116 87 108 83 111 126 86 84 LHB 102 100 93 91 108 106 100 99 103 96 97 109 101 90 99 104 95 96 101 106 105 99 105 96 109 98 96 102 103 98 2B/3B RHB 102 103 95 99 100 98 98 100 101 105 105 104 97 100 101 101 94 93 102 110 96 99 99 101 100 95 98 110 100 95 LHB 99 144 134 93 94 103 93 106 103 105 103 103 91 94 88 115 85 106 100 101 95 95 96 89 106 107 115 109 89 98 HR RHB 93 111 131 98 94 117 101 101 107 82 89 101 105 107 97 101 85 100 110 94 93 108 113 92 106 97 110 114 89 96 LHB 131 75 117 101 116 110 118 85 79 118 88 108 111 70 90 101 102 141 65 89 93 139 127 81 98 64 102 128 114 94 RHB 118 109 119 85 122 92 87 88 94 131 86 101 115 92 80 85 109 120 75 91 86 142 134 64 108 74 108 114 102 87 HR/FB (3-yr avg.) 13.1% 10.4% 13.3% 9.3% 11.7% 8.5% 10.4% 9.0% 10.3% 11.9% 9.6% 11.6% 12.3% 7.9% 9.4% 9.0% 9.8% 10.7% 7.9% 8.7% 8.7% 13.4% 12.7% 8.2% 10.4% 7.7% 11.1% 13.4% 9.8% 9.1% All park factors courtesy of StatCorner.com ERA Conversion Table How to use this tool: The following chart is useful when trying to determine just how valuable a reliever's ERA is compared to a starting pitcher due to the large gap in innings pitched. Just find your reliever's ERA under the 60 IP column and move right until you reach the desired IP to see what it's equivalent would be. 2014 ERA Conversion Table 60 IP 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 3.00 3.20 3.40 3.60 3.80 4.00 4.20 4.40 4.60 4.80 90 IP 1.96 2.10 2.24 2.37 2.50 2.64 2.77 2.90 3.03 3.17 3.30 3.43 3.57 3.71 3.83 3.97 4.11 4.23 4.37 4.51 120 IP 2.45 2.55 2.66 2.75 2.85 2.95 3.05 3.15 3.25 3.35 3.45 3.55 3.65 3.75 3.84 3.95 4.06 4.15 4.25 4.36 150 IP 2.74 2.83 2.90 2.98 3.07 3.14 3.22 3.30 3.38 3.46 3.54 3.62 3.70 3.78 3.86 3.94 4.02 4.10 4.18 4.26 180 IP 2.93 3.00 3.08 3.14 3.20 3.27 3.34 3.40 3.47 3.54 3.60 3.67 3.73 3.80 3.87 3.94 4.00 4.07 4.14 4.20 210 IP 3.08 3.13 3.19 3.24 3.30 3.36 3.42 3.48 3.53 3.59 3.65 3.71 3.76 3.82 3.88 3.93 3.99 4.04 4.11 4.17 240 IP 3.18 3.23 3.28 3.33 3.38 3.43 3.48 3.53 3.58 3.63 3.68 3.73 3.78 3.83 3.88 3.93 3.98 4.03 4.08 4.13 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 2014 Closer Depth Chart Baseball Professor | 5 Note: In lieu of closer rankings and profiles we are providing you with a comprehensive depth chart with every team's closer, next closer in line, and a sleeper for saves. Because the position is so volatile from year to year, it's more important to know the whole scope of the closer world rather than who we think it going to get the first stab at saves. Chances are you know who the 7-10 safe closers are for 2014 and then the rest is a free-for-all for saves. Let the carousel begin! 2014 Closer Depth Chart NL West NL Central NL East AL West AL Central AL East Division Team Stability Closer Baltimore Orioles 4 Tommy Hunter Boston Red Sox 4 Koji Uehara New York Yankees 4 David Robertson Tampa Bay Rays 3 Grant Balfour Toronto Blue Jays 4 Casey Janssen Chicago White Sox 3 Nate Jones Cleveland Indians 3 John Axford Detroit Tigers 5 Joe Nathan Kansas City Royals 5 Greg Holland Minnesota Twins 3 Glen Perkins Houston Astros 2 Chad Qualls Los Angeles Angels 5 Ernesto Frieri Oakland Athletics 4 Jim Johnson Seattle Mariners 3 Fernando Rodney Texas Rangers 3 Neftali Feliz Atlanta Braves 5 Craig Kimbrel Miami Marlins 4 Steve Cishek New York Mets 3 Bobby Parnell Philadelphia Phillies 5 Jonathan Papelbon Washington Nationals 5 Rafael Soriano Chicago Cubs 3 Jose Veras Cincinnati Reds 5 Aroldis Chapman Milwaukee Brewers 4 Jim Henderson Pittsburgh Pirates 4 Jason Grilli St. Louis Cardinals 5 Trevor Rosenthal Arizona Diamondbacks 4 Addison Reed Colorado Rockies 3 LaTroy Hawkins Los Angeles Dodgers 3 Kenley Jansen San Diego Padres 4 Huston Street San Francisco Giants 5 Sergio Romo Injured players in red Stability (1 = least stable, 5 = most stable) Next in Line Sleeper Darren O'Day Ryan Webb Quick Blurb (Date updated) Hey, if Jim Johnson can save 50+ games why can't Hunter do it? (2/17) Uehara is dominant when on the mound, but can he Edward Mujica Junichi Tazawa close for a full season? (2/17) Robertson will have a long leash, but has some big Shawn Kelley Preston Claiborne shoes to fill with Mo Rivera gone. (2/17) Look out for Heath Bell if/when Balfour gets injured. Heath Bell Joel Peralta (2/17) Janssen has enough talent to put up a top 5 season Sergio Santos Steve Delabar even in the tough AL East. (2/17) Jones is a high K pitcher, who could put up some nice Matt Lindstrom Daniel Webb numbers if he wins the job. (2/17) Axford has the job, but look for his leash to be Cody Allen Vinnie Pestano extremely short as Cody Allen is ready. (2/17) Nathan has been good for so long it's hard to imagine Joba Chamberlain Bruce Rondon the Tigers not sticking with him. (2/17) Holland showed in 2013 why he's one of the best Luke Hochevar Kelvin Herrera closers in the game. (2/17) Perkins brings elite closer numbers without the price. Jared Burton Casey Fien (2/17) Qualls is the favorite, but this is really anyone's gig. Jesse Crain Mat Albers (2/17) Frieri will K a ton of batters and the Angels should Joe Smith Sean Burnett bounce back in 2013. (2/17) I guess back-to-back 50 save seasons means you yield Luke Gregerson Ryan Cook Jemile Weeks in a trade. (2/17) I don't understand why Rodney continues to land Danny Farquhar Yoervis Medina closer jobs. Smarten up guys. (2/17) Feliz should start as the closer, but anyone can steal if Tanner Scheppers Joakim Soria he struggles. (2/17) Kimbrel's new contract should be enough reason as to Jordan Walden David Carpenter why he's worth taking early. (2/17) Cishek is coming off a career-best season, now if the Mike Dunn Carter Capps Marlins could just win some games. (2/17) A promising 2013 season was cut short due to injury, Vic Black Scott Rice but he's back, willing, and able. (2/17) Papelbon has been so good for so long there's no realy Antonio Bastardo Mike Adams reason to worry. (2/17) Consecutive 40+ save seasons should mean Soriano Tyler Clippard Drew Storen has a nice leash for 2014. (2/17) Veras stuggles against lefties, which will hinder his Pedro Strop Hector Rondon ability to close long term. (2/17) Any noise of Chapman returning to the starting Jonathan Broxton Sean Marshall rotation is just that…noise. (2/17) Henderson struggled late in 2013, but the job is his Francisco Rodriguez Brandon Kintzler until he proves it wasn't a fluke. (2/17) Grillis dazzled in 2013 as the anchor of a surprising Mark Melancon Vin Mazzaro Pirates team. (2/17) Rosenthal shined in what was a very impressive Jason Motte Carlos Martinez Cardinals bullpen in 2013. (2/17) You don't usually trade for an arm like Reed's unless Brad Ziegler J.J. Putz you have big plans for it. (2/17) There's absolutely no reason why Rex Brothers Rex Brothers Wilton Lopez shouldn't have this job by June. (2/17) Jansen has the upside of Craig Kimbrel, but two Brian Wilson Chris Perez proven closers loom behind him. (2/17) Street is great when he's on the mound, but injuries Joaquin Benoit Dale Thayer limit him greatly. (2/17) Romo has the skill set to be a dominant closer, and Jeremy Affeldt Santiago Casilla should get plenty of opps. (2/17) Notable free agents: Kevin Gregg, Joel Hanrahan, Ryan Madson @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 6 | Baseball Professor 2013: Catcher Year in Review Have you every asked yourself, “I wonder if Player X is better suited for a head-to-head league or roto league?” Well, today’s your lucky day! Behold the H2H vs. Roto quadrant, where you can quickly identify which league your favorite player stands out in. The criteria is simple: Consistent players on a weekly basis are more valuable in H2H leagues due to their weekly nature while roto leagues lend themselves to a more patient approach. However, in roto leagues you like to have players who contribute stats across the board, but you don’t care when they come. We rated some of last year’s best Catchers on both consistency and statistical balance based on their 2013 performance (small sample size alert!) and plopped them on a chart. Take a look! More consistency Better in H2H Great Player A.J. Pierzynski Matt Wieters Buster Posey Brian McCannCarlos Santana Salvador Perez Yadier Molina Less balance More balance Welington Castillo A.J. Ellis Ryan Doumit Jason Castro Jarrod Saltalamacchia Russell Martin Bad Player Less consistency Wilin Rosario Better in Roto @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 7 Who's HR/FB Rate Over- or UnderPerformed Their Average FB Distance? 30.0% 25.0% HR/FB 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 240 250 260 270 280 290 Average FB Distance 300 310 320 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 8 | Baseball Professor If you find yourself wondering whether a certain player deserved to hit as high (or low) as he did last year, rather than look at his BABIP and try to decipher whether he was lucky or unlucky just reference the chart below. Our xBA calculation takes everything you need to know into account and spits out what each hitter should have hit. The chart is easy to read: If your player lands above the line then he was unlucky (lower BA than xBA), but if he’s below the line then he was lucky and could be due for regression. It’s as easy as that! BA vs. Expected BA, 2013 Season .360 Unlucky .340 .320 Expected Batting Average .300 .280 .260 .240 .220 Lucky .200 .200 .220 .240 .260 .280 .300 .320 .340 .360 Batting Average @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 9 Catcher 2014 Preview Jake Devereaux’s Dynasty / Keeper League Watch List Rk Prospect Name Team Age ETA Comments 1 Travis d'Arnaud NYM 25 Early 2014 2014 will finally mark the arrival of baseball’s best catching prospect. The Mets will be happy to finally have another home grown backstop capable of being a perennial all-star. 2 Jorge Alfaro TEX 21 3 Josmil Pinto MIN 25 4 Gary Sanchez NYY 21 5 Blake Swihart BOS 23 With plenty of swing and miss in his game Alfaro still has one of the highest ceilings at the position. The extremely athletic backstop has true 20/20 potential at a position where steals are a rarity Not often thought of as a top prospect Pinto can do one thing without question—he can Early 2014 hit. Though he is splitting time with Kurt Suzuki he should see ample at-bats in the weak Twins lineup. Sanchez has plenty of power but doesn’t always make enough contact to make it work in 2015 the games. If things break right for him he could hit .250 with 25HR, however due to his poor defense it may be at first base. In 2013 Swihart saw his walk rate rise to 9.7% his K rate drop to 14.9% and his average 2015 rise to .298 at the high-A level. If the young catcher is able to continue this path of improvement he could be best the long term option in Fenway. 2016 Top 30 Rankings / Auction ($) Values Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Player Name Buster Posey Joe Mauer Wilin Rosario Carlos Santana Yadier Molina Jonathan Lucroy Brian McCann Jason Castro Salvador Perez Miguel Montero Matt Wieters Yan Gomes Welington Castillo Evan Gattis Wilson Ramos $ Value $15 $14 $12 $11 $10 $9 $9 $8 $7 $3 $3 $1 $1 $1 $0 Rank 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Player Name Jarrod Saltalamacchia Devin Mesoraco A.J. Pierzynski Mike Zunino Jordan Pacheco Travis d'Arnaud Russell Martin A.J. Ellis Alex Avila Josmil Pinto John Buck John Jaso Hank Conger Carlos Ruiz Chris Iannetta $ Value $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 A Closer Look...Catcher Superlatives Superlative Biggest Risk Safest Bet Mid-Round Sleeper Late-Round Sleeper Don't Believe the Hype Post-Hype Sleeper Best Value Pick Player You Always Own Player You Never Own Round I'll Draft C Better in Points Leagues Better in Roto Leagues Better in H2H Leagues Better in Keeper Leagues Matt Commins Evan Gattis Joe Mauer Jonathan Lucroy Yan Gomes Brian McCann Devin Mesoraco Joe Mauer Joe Mauer Matt Wieters 5th Willin Rosario Joe Mauer Brian McCann Salvador Perez Eric Broutman Wilin Rosario Joe Mauer Wilson Ramos Devin Mesoraco Wilin Rosario Devin Mesoraco Jonathon Lucroy Wilson Ramos Buster Posey 12th-15th Joe Mauer Jonathon Lucroy Matt Wieters Travis d'Arnaud Paul Beck Wilson Ramos A.J. Pierzysnki Miguel Montero Jesus Montero Salvador Perez Devin Mesoraco Jason Castro Alex Avila Yadier Molina Late Salvador Perez Wilin Rosario Jonathon Lucroy Jason Castro Adam Nodiff Willin Rosario Jonathan Lucroy Wilson Ramos Travis d’Arnaud Evan Gattis Devin Mesoraco Jason Castro Jonathan Lucroy Yadier Molina 8th-10th Wilin Rosario Buster Posey Wilin Rosario Salvador Perez Jake Devereaux Evan Gattis Johnathan Lucroy Brian McCann Jason Castro Yan Gomes Miguel Montero Jason Castro Brian McCann Buster Posey 7th Carlos Santana Wilin Rosario Buster Posey Salvador Perez @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 10 | Baseball Professor Buster Posey | SF | Age: 27 | Rk: 1 (55) Carlos Santana | CLE | Age: 28 | Rk: 4 (90) Position: C/1B Position: C/1B There’s no doubt who the top catcher is in fantasy this year -- it’s Posey. After a scorching 1st half in which the San Fran backstop hit .325, he never found his groove after the All-Star break, putting up a “What the f***”-inducing .244/2/16 line in 58 2nd-half games. Posey has reportedly bulked up this offseason in an attempt to withstand the 162-game grind better, but it’s not like these late-season slides are a regular occurrence. In 2012 he posted a .385/14/60 line after the break. Regardless, Posey is the best catcher in fantasy. Santana bats at the heart of a solid Indians lineup and, like Joe Mauer, is making the transition from catcher to 1B. His offensive numbers when not catching are noticeably better than when he is, but regardless, Santana is a fairly elite fantasy option given the position he plays. He dominates in OBP leagues, but can he post that breakout season we’ve all been expecting. I figured we would have seen a .280/28/90 season by now. Players with similar stat lines: Allen Craig; Billy Butler; Adrian Gonzalez 2011 2012 2013 2014 45 148 148 144 185 610 595 606 17 78 61 72 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.2 15.7 11.8 12.9 9.7 11.3 10.1 11.2 1.79 1.61 1.44 1.11 4 24 15 22 21 103 72 89 18.0 10.3% 24.6 18.8% 19.9 10.0% 23.3 14.4% Players with similar stat lines: Adam LaRoche; Corey Hart; Josh Hamilton 3 1 2 3 .284 .336 .294 .300 .258 .342 .276 .300 2011 2012 2013 2014 155 143 154 157 658 609 642 645 84 72 75 82 27 18 20 23 79 76 74 85 5 3 3 2 .239 .252 .268 .270 .214 .257 .271 .250 .326 .368 .312 .312 -4.86 5.09 1.39 3.77 652 27 146 55 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.2 16.6 17.1 16.7 14.7 14.9 14.5 14.3 1.12 1.14 1.19 1.15 15.4 19.1 21.8 19.3 16.0% 11.5% 13.0% 14.9% .263 .278 .301 .289 1.32 -0.06 1.73 2.40 130 209 130 90 Joe Mauer | MIN | Age: 31 | Rk: 2 (64) Yadier Molina | STL | Age: 31 | Rk: 5 (102) Position: C/1B Position: C Mauer has worn the Scarlett I (for “injury prone”) for the better part of his career, but those concerns are alleviated a bit this year as he transitions to first base. There’s no doubt getting out from behind the plate will help Mauer stay healthy, but could it mean we see more HR power? We’ll need to wait and see about that, but for now you can feel comfortable penciling Mauer in for a .300+ BA and some solid R/ RBI production in what could be a career-best number of PA. Molina seems to get better with age. According to our rankings formula, Molina was the top-ranked catcher last season -- a pretty good encore to his 2nd-ranked 2012 season. We dock Molina a little bit in just about every category, but that’s primarily because we don’t see him batting .373 with RISP again this year. Honestly, I can’t heap enough praise on Molina, and I’d be more than happy to slot him at catcher on my fantasy team, but only at the right price. Players with similar stat lines: Victor Martinez; Allen Craig; Yadier Molina 2011 2012 2013 2014 82 147 113 138 333 641 508 615 38 81 62 82 2011 2012 2013 2014 11.4 13.7 17.5 17.1 9.6 14.0 12.0 13.5 2.57 2.35 1.85 1.21 3 10 11 11 30 85 47 84 23.1 5.4% 25.0 9.7% 27.7 12.1% 20.4 7.6% Players with similar stat lines: Victor Martinez; Martin Prado; Salvador Perez 0 8 0 1 .287 .319 .324 .310 .308 .315 .315 .310 2011 2012 2013 2014 139 138 136 132 518 563 541 546 55 65 68 64 .319 .364 .383 .363 -3.70 3.20 0.63 3.36 506 74 175 64 2011 8.5 2012 9.8 2013 10.2 2014 9.2 6.4 8.0 5.5 5.9 1.27 1.14 1.24 1.37 14 22 12 14 65 76 80 75 19.6 9.1% 24.8 13.8% 24.3 7.8% 19.8 9.3% 4 12 3 4 .305 .315 .319 .310 .274 .336 .299 .300 .311 .316 .338 .320 0.75 3.29 2.62 2.06 154 69 89 102 Wilin Rosario | COL | Age: 25 | Rk: 3 (74) Jonathan Lucroy | MIL | Age: 28 | Rk: 6 (121) Position: C Position: C/1B Everyone knows Rosario has the power, but many question whether he can bat anywhere near last year’s .292 mark. I think he can. Comparing Rosario’s batted ball, walk, and strikeout rates, I found a group of batters whose skill set most closely mimicked Rosario’s. Those batters averaged a .327 BABIP, so just because Rosario’s was .344 doesn’t mean it has to come tumbling down. It probably won’t be that high again, but I think it’ll be close. Playing in Coors with a well-rounded game, it’s hard to overvalue Rosario. Players with similar stat lines: Jose Abreu; Brian McCann; Corey Hart 2011 2012 2013 2014 16 117 121 125 57 426 466 503 6 67 63 75 2011 2012 2013 2014 35.1 23.2 23.4 22.7 3.5 5.9 3.2 4.8 1.00 1.26 1.14 1.14 3 28 21 29 8 71 79 82 20.0 21.4% 17.3 25.5% 22.9 17.1% 20.5 23.3% A well-rounded hitter who’d been knocking on the door for a couple years, particularly with his great per-game production in 2012, Lucroy finally put together his breakout campaign in 2013. He ranked 3rd among all catchers on the year and was 1 of just 2 to top 80 RBI (Yadier Molina was the other). Will Lucroy follow up his solid season with a repeat campaign? Why not! His K% and BB% both improved last season, and he’s a line drive machine. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to say Lucroy should be number 2 on this list. Players with similar stat lines: Aramis Ramirez; Pablo Sandoval; Jason Castro 0 4 4 2 .204 .270 .292 .280 .242 .287 .296 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 136 96 147 141 468 346 580 565 45 46 59 61 .250 .289 .344 .308 -6.72 1.32 2.30 3.00 1088 138 101 74 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.2 12.7 11.9 12.0 6.2 6.4 7.9 7.6 1.23 1.11 1.03 0.99 12 12 18 17 59 58 82 81 24.2 10.7% 21.1 11.7% 22.8 10.3% 20.7 9.9% 2 4 9 6 .265 .320 .280 .290 .265 .297 .296 .290 .317 .338 .290 .301 -1.73 -0.64 2.15 1.69 307 246 110 121 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 11 Brian McCann | NYY | Age: 30 | Rk: 7 (123) Miguel Montero | ARI | Age: 30 | Rk: 10 (184) Position: C Position: C Just about everyone expects McCann to set a new career-high in HR in his 1st season with the Yankees, and we’re no different. OK, topping his previous best of 24 HR by 1 isn’t exactly an earth-shattering prediction, but it’s a step in the right direction. Injuries have limited him over the last 3 years, but McCann used to be a .280/20/90 guy from a shallow offensive position. We’ll see how big the Yankee Stadium boost is, but a 28+ HR season is definitely in play. Players with similar stat lines: Kendrys Morales; Corey Hart; Marlon Byrd 2011 2012 2013 2014 128 121 102 128 527 487 402 544 51 44 43 64 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.9 15.6 16.4 16.2 10.8 9.0 9.7 8.5 0.81 0.97 0.84 0.78 24 20 20 25 71 67 57 79 15.6 13.6% 19.0 13.3% 22.3 16.3% 19.6 15.7% Montero ranked 4th in 2011 and 7th in 2012, so don’t hate on this rank. You know those bad days you have where absolutely everything seems to go wrong and you can’t catch a break? Montero suffered through 6 months of that in 2013. He posted a 21.4 LD% yet managed just a .282 BABIP, which is well below his career average (.312). He was a little more passive at the plate -- BB% over 10.0, K% over 20.0, both for the 2nd straight year -- but Montero’s established himself enough for me to like his chance at a rebound. Players with similar stat lines: Jason Castro; Anthony Rendon; Jed Lowrie 3 3 0 1 .270 .230 .256 .280 .232 .256 .288 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 140 141 116 127 553 573 475 525 65 65 44 64 18 15 11 15 86 88 42 77 1 0 0 0 .282 .286 .230 .280 .273 .245 .250 .260 .287 .234 .261 .287 0.48 -2.06 -1.16 1.61 171 344 282 123 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.5 22.7 23.2 21.9 8.5 12.7 10.7 10.7 1.17 1.19 1.51 1.25 21.9 20.9 21.4 25.9 12.6% 11.6% 11.3% 14.2% .317 .362 .282 .334 1.33 0.84 -3.61 0.51 128 166 485 184 Jason Castro | HOU | Age: 27 | Rk: 8 (141) Matt Wieters | BAL | Age: 28 | Rk: 11 (197) Position: C Position: C Castro bats at the middle of an MLB lineup. It’s not the best MLB lineup, but batting 3rd for the Astros beats batting 7th for almost anyone else. In the minors, Castro displayed great walk rates and average strikeout rates, so he could certainly show improvement in those areas in 2014 (as we expect), but the best that’ll probably do is counteract his bound-to-drop .351 BABIP. Then again, when you post a LD% over 25.0 with half-a-season over 27.0 under your belt, too, then high BABIPs might follow you around. After posting a .235 BA in 2013 and falling in the ranks once again, is it time to say we’ve seen the best of Wieters? His K% hasn’t improved in the last 4 years, he’s posting similar HR totals each season, and his BA is very much going in the wrong direction. He rarely posts good line drive rates, generally sitting around 17%, and it seems to me like he’s trying to hit too many fly balls. This isn’t the 1st time you’ll hear us reference the value of power in today’s game, but that’s why Wieters is still enticing. Players with similar stat lines: Miguel Montero; Aramis Ramirez; Pablo Sandoval 2011 2012 2013 2014 87 120 132 295 491 589 29 63 70 2011 2012 20.7 2013 26.5 2014 18.8 10.5 10.2 9.3 1.42 1.12 1.63 6 18 15 29 56 83 27.5 10.0% 25.2 16.5% 19.5 12.2% Players with similar stat lines: Jedd Gyorko; Jason Kubel; Justin Smoak 0 2 2 .257 .276 .280 .303 .282 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 139 144 148 145 551 593 579 580 72 67 59 65 22 23 22 23 68 83 79 76 1 3 2 2 .262 .249 .235 .250 .263 .274 .241 .260 .309 .351 .322 -4.93 0.33 1.34 622 188 141 2011 2012 2013 2014 15.2 18.9 18.0 18.3 8.7 10.1 7.4 7.1 1.12 1.24 0.88 2.39 17.7 20.4 17.6 23.5 13.6% 15.5% 11.6% 25.4% .276 .274 .247 .274 0.57 0.40 -0.01 0.19 163 189 206 197 Salvador Perez | KC | Age: 24 | Rk: 9 (162) Yan Gomes | CLE | Age: 26 | Rk: 12 (251) Position: C Position: C Perez is a defense-first catcher who has some good offensive skills as well -- he makes as much contact as any other catcher and he hits a lot of line drives. We’ll see how much HR potential the 6’3, 245 lb catcher really has, but he shouldn’t have much trouble getting to 15. With a very good BA (career .301) and some solid RBI potential batting 6th for the Royals, Perez has solidified himself as a top 10 catcher who could soon develop into a top 5 option. Currently, it’s his R total that’s holding him back most. Gomes is generating buzz as a sleeper at catcher this season after batting .294/11/38 in about half-a-season of PA last year, but I’m not entirely sold. He got by with a .342 BABIP despite line drive rates that resembled the pathetic efforts put forth by Matt Wieters, and Gomes has a history of high strikeout rates in the minors. He has pretty good power potential and could hit 20+ HR in a full season, but I would much rather take one of our top 10 catchers and solidify the position. Players with similar stat lines: Pablo Sandoval; Miguel Montero; Yadier Molina 2011 2012 2013 2014 39 76 138 138 158 305 526 551 20 38 48 56 2011 12.7 2012 8.9 2013 12.0 2014 11.3 4.4 3.9 4.0 4.7 1.42 1.39 1.42 1.19 3 11 13 16 21 39 79 76 29.2 7.9% 24.2 13.1% 20.5 9.0% 22.8 9.9% Players with similar stat lines: Jhonny Peralta; Andre Ethier; Alexander Guerrero 0 0 0 0 .331 .301 .292 .300 .352 .332 .265 .300 2011 2012 2013 2014 43 88 133 111 322 520 9 45 59 .362 .299 .311 .312 -4.60 -2.77 0.43 1.05 611 400 183 162 2011 2012 28.8 2013 20.8 2014 21.3 5.4 5.6 6.9 1.28 1.12 1.14 4 11 16 13 38 63 14.9 16.0% 17.8 12.4% 23.0 12.9% 0 2 2 .204 .294 .270 .206 .243 .280 .246 .342 .318 -6.93 -1.77 -0.56 1095 319 251 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 12 | Baseball Professor Welington Castillo | CHC | Age: 27 | Rk: 13 (292) Jarrod Saltalamacchia | MIA | Age: 29 | Rk: 16 (303) Position: C Position: C Castillo was decent in extremely limited playing time in 2012, but in 2013 he finally got a chance to show what he can do. His 428 PA wasn’t an extremely high total, but it was enough for him to have value off free agency for a few stretches (I know I owned Castillo several times when Miguel Montero failed). If we’re to believe his minor league numbers (and what he did in that brief 2011 campaign), there’s a sneaky amount of power in Castillo’s bat. This is the year we’ll start to see it materialize. Fresh off a successful foray into free agency, Saltalamacchia was the Marlins’ biggest offseason haul. Salty was able to bat .273 last year despite fanning nearly 30% of the time, so we know there was a good amount of batted ball luck at play (.372 BABIP). Luck aside, though, Saltalamacchia set an all-time catcher record with 40 doubles, an amazing accomplishment that highlights how much pop he has. Playing home games in the spacious Crayola Canyon won’t help his HR total, but Salty could hit 20+ HR. Players with similar stat lines: Nate Schierholtz; Oscar Taveras; Devin Mesoraco 2011 2012 2013 2014 4 52 113 120 13 190 428 475 0 16 41 52 2011 2012 2013 2014 30.8 26.8 22.7 21.1 0.0 8.9 7.9 8.8 1.33 1.34 1.28 0.89 0 5 8 16 0 22 32 57 12.5 0.0% 20.0 12.2% 21.8 8.2% 20.0 12.5% Players with similar stat lines: Hunter Morris; Mike Zunino; Mike Moustakas 0 0 2 2 .154 .265 .274 .260 .167 .240 .250 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 103 121 121 127 386 448 470 506 52 55 68 51 16 25 14 19 56 59 65 62 1 0 4 2 .235 .222 .273 .250 .222 .251 .256 .240 .222 .348 .347 .310 -5.72 -2.88 -1.69 991 411 292 2011 2012 2013 2014 30.8 31.0 29.6 28.5 6.2 8.5 9.1 8.7 0.69 0.66 0.85 1.68 21.3 22.8 28.6 15.2 14.3% 20.0% 12.6% 20.3% .304 .265 .372 .307 -2.05 -1.81 0.56 -1.88 337 327 177 303 Evan Gattis | ATL | Age: 27 | Rk: 14 (295) Devin Mesoraco | CIN | Age: 26 | Rk: 17 (312) Position: C/OF Position: C If you listened to our catcher Profcast or have been following our top 200 coundown, you’ll notice Gattis took a huge, last-minute nosedive. On the eve before the Draft Guide went out, we downgraded almost every aspect of Gattis’ line. His IFFB% last year was really bugging me, and I began to think he might struggle enough at the plate to cost himself some PA. When HR are all you can provide, you really, really need to hit a lot of them. Our projected 21 bombs is good, but it doesn’t quite make up for the rest. We’ve been waiting for Mesoraco to establish himself as a viable fantasy catcher for several years now, but we’re still waiting for signs of life from the career .225 hitter. On the bright side, Mesoraco took his first steps forward last year with a much improved set of batted ball stats -- 21.1 LD% and 7.8 IFFB%. Typically, those rates have been well below average, so maybe Mesoraco is starting to figure things out. He still hasn’t topped 352 PA in a season, but if he gets 450+ he makes for an interesting late-round flyer. Players with similar stat lines: Matt Dominguez; Matt Davidson; Marcell Ozuna 2011 2012 2013 2014 105 135 382 487 44 52 2011 2012 2013 21.2 2014 26.3 5.5 7.8 0.92 0.80 21 21 65 71 14.5 17.1% 18.1 16.2% Players with similar stat lines: Oscar Taveras; Dayan Viciedo; A.J. Pierzynski 0 2 .243 .240 .238 .240 2011 2012 2013 2014 18 54 103 119 53 184 352 450 5 17 31 48 .255 .343 -1.00 -1.74 265 295 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.9 17.9 17.3 17.8 5.7 9.2 6.8 7.6 0.89 1.20 1.33 0.88 2 5 9 14 6 14 42 55 15.0 11.1% 16.7 10.0% 21.1 10.0% 17.5 10.0% 0 1 0 2 .180 .212 .238 .270 .206 .223 .279 .270 .184 .234 .264 .295 -7.01 -6.55 -3.95 -2.09 1141 1046 511 312 Wilson Ramos | WAS | Age: 26 | Rk: 15 (299) A.J. Pierzynski | BOS | Age: 37 | Rk: 18 (317) Position: C Position: C I’m getting very tired of hearing about Ramos’ power potential after he slugged 16 HR in half-time play last year. First, he’s almost completely a ground ball hitter with one of the lowest FB% in the league. Second, he needed a 27.6% HR/FB rate to do it, which would be fitting if Ramos were Giancarlo Stanton. Third, he hit about half of those HR in 1 month (7 in September). I know it doesn’t matter when you hit them as long as you do, but this smells like a hot streak more than anything else. Players with similar stat lines: Dayan Viciedo; A.J. Pierzynski; Oscar Taveras 2011 2012 2013 2014 113 25 78 123 435 96 303 495 48 11 29 45 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.5 19.8 13.9 12.9 8.7 12.5 5.0 4.6 1.40 3.31 2.41 1.33 15 3 16 15 52 10 59 63 14.6 13.4% 13.8 23.1% 19.5 27.6% 19.4 11.2% Pierzynski’s late-career power surge propelled him to 4th at the position in 2012 and 11th last year, but that’s coming to an end in 2014. I believe it’s possible Pierzynski can still hit for a .270-.280 average, but Fenway Park’s spacious right field dimensions kill left-handed power and the team has created a nice role for David Ross. If you’re planning on nabbing a value catcher in the last rounds of the draft, I’d suggest you look elsewhere. Players with similar stat lines: Devin Mesoraco; Oscar Taveras; Wilson Ramos 0 0 0 2 .267 .265 .272 .270 .238 .253 .347 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 129 135 134 118 500 520 529 501 38 68 48 45 .297 .306 .270 .278 -1.70 -6.61 -1.79 -1.79 303 1052 320 299 2011 6.6 2012 15.0 2013 14.4 2014 16.0 4.6 5.4 2.1 5.0 1.77 1.17 1.21 1.07 8 27 17 13 48 77 70 58 20.9 6.5% 22.2 18.6% 22.4 11.2% 24.4 9.5% 0 0 1 2 .287 .278 .272 .270 .283 .310 .288 .290 .291 .280 .288 .296 -2.27 1.42 -0.11 -2.17 355 135 215 317 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 13 Mike Zunino | SEA | Age: 23 | Rk: 19 (322) Russell Martin | PIT | Age: 31 | Rk: 22 (367) Position: C Position: C I’ll preface this by saying it’s only been 1 year and I’m aware Zunino is his own person, but I’m backing way off the Mariners slugging catching prospect. There are a few prospects that, through no fault of their own, I just won’t gamble on: Rockies pitchers and Mariners batters are right at the top of that list. Maybe it’s because of Jesus Montero’s fall from top prospect stardom, or maybe it’s that Zunino batted .214 last year with an 18.5 LD% and 14.6 IFFB%, but I’m not as optimistic as I was a year ago. Players with similar stat lines: Mike Moustakas; Jarrod Saltalamacchia; Hunter Morris 2011 2012 2013 2014 52 134 193 534 22 52 2011 2012 2013 25.4 2014 21.9 8.3 7.3 1.10 1.08 5 17 14 63 18.5 10.4% 18.8 12.3% Martin has received a lot of good press recently in light of Pittsburgh’s once-in-a-generation playoff appearance in 2013. His value behind the plate, from pitch framing to calling games to throwing out runners, is among the best in the game. Unfortunately, his bat is about as average as they come. Martin can still swipe the occassional base and bop the occassional long ball, but he’s a BA killer and doesn’t offer much in the way of counting stats. Players with similar stat lines: Travis d’Arnaud; Casey McGehee; Logan Morrison 1 2 .214 .250 .224 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 125 133 127 125 476 485 506 500 57 50 51 50 18 21 15 16 65 53 55 54 8 6 9 2 .237 .211 .226 .240 .261 .284 .231 .260 .267 .284 -5.89 -2.22 778 322 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.0 19.6 21.3 22.2 10.5 10.9 11.5 11.8 1.42 1.46 1.56 1.29 19.2 19.4 16.6 19.0 15.9% 19.8% 13.9% 14.9% .252 .222 .266 .272 -0.77 -2.57 -1.63 -3.18 241 387 303 367 Jordan Pacheco | COL | Age: 28 | Rk: 20 (349) A.J. Ellis | LAD | Age: 33 | Rk: 23 (371) Position: C/1B Position: C In 2012, Pacheco batted .309 across 505 PA -- a .300+ catcher-eligible player with a little speed who plays for the Rockies is pretty much the definition of “sleeper.” Pacheco was targeted heavily last year, but he collapsed. All is not lost, though, and we can’t just forget the skills Pacheco displayed in 2012. He’s not a .239 hitter, crushing line drives 25% of the time, and he still plays in Coors. A super utility pinch hitter, I don’t know where Pacheco’s PA will come from, but he’ll get enough to have some deep league value with his BA. After a .238 season in 2013, the only thing Ellis really brings to the plate is his above average plate discipline. Tim Federowicz is lurking on the bench and will steal a lot of PA. Federowicz is the one with the potential, but it appears Ellis still has a solid grasp on the job and will win the lion’s share of the starts this season. He could have value in OBP leagues (OBP no lower than .363 from 2010-2012), but there are better higher-upside picks to be found, some of whom are lower in our rankings. Players with similar stat lines: Lorenzo Cain; Jon Jay; Ryan Sweeney Players with similar stat lines: Brian Roberts; Nolan Reimold; Aaron Hicks 2011 2012 2013 2014 21 132 95 122 88 505 262 465 5 51 23 44 2 5 1 6 14 54 22 47 0 7 0 2 .286 .309 .239 .280 .307 .300 .288 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 31 133 115 111 103 505 448 427 8 44 43 40 2011 2012 2013 2014 10.2 12.1 14.5 13.3 3.4 4.4 3.8 4.7 2.60 1.36 1.89 0.98 27.0 26.4 25.4 20.3 13.3% 3.8% 1.9% 3.6% .301 .344 .278 .315 -6.23 -0.76 -5.82 -2.93 911 252 765 349 2011 2012 2013 2014 15.5 21.2 17.4 17.3 13.6 12.9 10.0 11.7 1.42 1.37 1.20 1.32 2 13 10 9 11 52 52 48 15.9 8.3% 22.9 12.5% 18.7 8.5% 17.7 8.9% 0 0 0 2 .271 .270 .238 .270 .223 .272 .245 .260 .313 .329 .269 .307 -6.31 -2.35 -3.05 -3.25 939 369 429 371 Travis d’Arnaud | NYM | Age: 25 | Rk: 21 (350) Alex Avila | DET | Age: 27 | Rk: 24 (384) Position: C Position: C Ranking and projecting d’Arnaud is d’ifficult. On the one hand, he’s the game’s best catching prospect with a history of HR power in the minors, solid plate d’iscipline, and a lot of intangibles. On the other hand, d’Arnaud is tasked with taking over full-time catching d’uties while molding a pitching staff with twice as many questions as answers. Besides, catchers tend to d’evelop more slowly offensively -- ask Yadier Molina. I’d d’efinitely d’raft d’Arnaud in 2-catcher leagues and d’eep keeper formats, but only watch him elsewhere. Players with similar stat lines: Russell Martin; Alex Avila; Logan Morrison 2011 2012 2013 2014 31 132 112 497 4 51 2011 2012 2013 18.8 2014 19.1 10.7 8.9 1.32 1.18 1 14 5 54 17.7 3.6% 16.6 10.6% We’ve established that Avila isn’t as good as his 19 HR, 82 RBI season in 2011 that saw him finish as the 3rdbest catcher, but he’s better than a .227/11/47 line. Did you know that Avila actually earned a 28.0 LD% last year? Personally, I was shocked by that. He’ll need to get his FB% out of the 20s and back into the 40s if we’re to see another borderline 20 HR season, but it’s not impossible for Avila to improve enough to have some value. Players with similar stat lines: Andrew Lambo; Travis d’Arnaud; Mike Aviles 0 2 .202 .250 .203 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 141 116 102 109 551 434 379 414 63 42 39 47 19 9 11 13 82 48 47 50 3 2 0 1 .295 .243 .227 .250 .248 .253 .275 .260 .244 .278 -7.41 -2.93 1208 350 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.8 24.0 29.6 32.4 13.2 14.1 11.6 15.0 0.93 1.56 1.42 1.14 21.7 23.8 28.0 22.3 13.8% 11.4% 16.9% 17.9% .366 .313 .305 .309 1.87 -3.60 -3.50 -3.42 111 477 476 384 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 14 | Baseball Professor Josmil Pinto | MIN | Age: 25 | Rk: 25 (393) Hank Conger | LAA | Age: 26 | Rk: 28 (433) Position: C Position: C Minnesota’s whole roster is a mess. Are Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton ready yet? In 83 brief PA last year, Pinto batted .342 with 4 HR, giving fantasy owners a taste of what they could see if the Twins just cave and give him the job, but for some reason they insist on rostering Kurt Suzuki, who has provided exactly 1 Win Above Replacement in the last 2 years combined. Pinto has solid minor league walk and strikeout rates and could hit 15 HR per 550 PA, but he won’t get that kind of playing time yet. Our favorite Asian, Conger is slated to compete for playing time with Chris Iannetta. Conger has the advantage thanks to his age, offensive upside, and switch-hitting capabilities, but as long as Iannetta is there the PA will be tough to come by on a consistent basis. A trade or injury to Iannetta would give Conger a decent boost, but even with full playing time Conger’s upside lands somewhere around 15 HR and 55 RBI, which should put him in the 18-23 range among all catchers. Players with similar stat lines: Raul Ibanez; Nate Freiman; Jonathan Singleton 2011 2012 2013 2014 21 65 2011 2012 2013 26.5 2014 19.1 83 246 10 31 7.2 7.3 1.28 0.83 4 13 12 39 24.1 22.2% 24.8 18.9% Players with similar stat lines: Jonny Gomes; Chris Iannetta; Ryan Flaherty 0 2 .342 .280 .293 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 59 7 92 102 197 22 255 388 14 0 23 43 .440 .292 -5.62 -3.64 726 393 2011 18.8 2012 0.0 2013 23.9 2014 19.3 8.6 4.5 6.7 7.7 0.89 1.38 0.96 1.36 6 0 7 10 19 1 21 44 17.9 9.8% 0.0 0.0% 19.6 10.1% 26.0 11.8% 0 0 0 2 .209 .167 .249 .240 .237 .161 .230 .250 .231 .158 .307 .275 -6.18 -5.04 -4.26 889 649 433 John Buck | SEA | Age: 33 | Rk: 26 (425) Carlos Ruiz | PHI | Age: 35 | Rk: 29 (444) Position: C Position: C Seattle’s Mike Zunino insurance, we haven’t heard the last of Buck. I don’t exactly love putting a power hitter in Safeco, but Buck is consistently between 15-20 HR and around 400 PA every year. He’ll be a BA suck-hole, though not on the order of Ryan Doumit, but I can guarantee that at some point in 2014 Buck will get hot, hit 5 HR in a 7-10 day span, and prompt mass adds across fantasy free agency. Remember, it’s Zunino’s job unless he’s absolutely abysmal, but we’ve seen crazier things happen. We all warned you that Ruiz’s 2012 season was a mirage and -PED suspension aside -- 2013 was a major disappointment. His .339 BABIP fell down to earth (.291) and his power declined as it should when a catcher is in his mid-30’s. Gone are the days where Ruiz turns in a decent batting average, which is all he really had going for him. We expect his age to really show in 2014 and you’ll see a lot of those liners turn into grounders. Players with similar stat lines: Nick Hundley; Mike Olt; Russell Martin 2011 2012 2013 2014 140 106 110 108 530 398 431 400 41 29 39 35 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.7 25.9 24.1 27.0 10.2 12.3 6.7 10.3 1.00 1.07 1.17 2.00 16 12 15 16 57 41 62 51 18.2 11.1% 17.4 12.5% 19.0 13.9% 16.2 25.6% Players with similar stat lines: David Lough; Chris Heisey; Chris Parmelee 0 0 2 2 .227 .192 .222 .230 .224 .214 .240 .230 2011 2012 2013 2014 132 114 92 124 472 421 341 478 49 56 30 37 .268 .235 .262 .271 -3.16 -5.64 -2.52 -4.09 442 707 376 425 2011 2012 2013 2014 10.2 11.9 11.4 10.9 10.2 6.9 5.3 5.0 1.12 1.33 1.40 0.96 6 16 5 8 40 68 37 42 21.0 4.4% 24.0 15.1% 19.6 5.5% 19.4 5.0% 1 4 1 2 .283 .325 .268 .260 .251 .320 .264 .280 .308 .339 .291 .275 -2.39 1.01 -3.81 -4.38 364 153 498 444 John Jaso | OAK | Age: 30 | Rk: 27 (427) Chris Iannetta | LAA | Age: 31 | Rk: 30 (446) Position: C Position: C After missing two months with a concussion in 2013, Jaso is slated to play a lot more DH in 2014, which should bode well for his fantasy value. Jaso earns his keep thanks to his career 13.7 BB% and .364 OBP so for those in OBP leagues, take notice. That being said, his high OBP and some consistent playing time does him no good if he’s buried at the bottom of an already average Athletics lineup. If he were batting near the top of the order maybe we’d be more excited, but alas we’ll have to settle for less. Iannetta finds himself mired in a playing time battle with the younger, switch-hitting Hank Conger and while we project a 50/50 split it wouldn’t surprise us at all if Iannetta is left by the wayside and the Angels give Conger a shot at proving his worth. Iannetta is able to get on base thanks to a career 14.2 BB%, but he’s a major liability in the batting average department (career .234 BA). There’s always the chance Iannetta is shipped off to a better situation as he’s in the last year of his contract. Players with similar stat lines: Juan Lagares; Mark Ellis; Chris Denorfia 2011 2012 2013 2014 89 108 70 95 273 361 249 360 26 41 31 44 2011 2012 2013 2014 13.2 14.1 18.1 15.3 9.2 15.5 15.3 14.2 1.10 1.64 1.16 1.28 5 10 3 6 27 50 21 32 17.7 6.1% 25.4 14.3% 25.3 5.4% 23.6 7.4% Players with similar stat lines: Josh Phegley; Ryan Raburn; Jonny Gomes 1 5 2 2 .224 .276 .271 .270 .236 .328 .255 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 112 79 115 104 426 253 399 374 51 27 40 40 14 9 11 11 55 26 39 42 6 1 0 2 .238 .240 .225 .240 .227 .228 .217 .220 .244 .298 .331 .306 -5.33 -2.28 -4.51 -4.15 726 361 581 427 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.9 23.7 25.1 24.1 16.4 11.5 17.0 15.2 0.80 1.22 0.86 1.72 20.4 20.4 19.3 20.5 12.2% 15.5% 11.1% 17.8% .276 .288 .284 .282 -1.87 -5.02 -3.88 -4.43 314 627 502 446 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 2013: First Base Year in Review Baseball Professor | 15 Have you every asked yourself, “I wonder if Player X is better suited for a head-to-head league or roto league?” Well, today’s your lucky day! Behold the H2H vs. Roto quadrant, where you can quickly identify which league your favorite player stands out in. The criteria is simple: Consistent players on a weekly basis are more valuable in H2H leagues due to their weekly nature while roto leagues lend themselves to a more patient approach. However, in roto leagues you like to have players who contribute stats across the board, but you don’t care when they come. We rated some of last year’s best First Basemen on both consistency and statistical balance based on their 2013 performance (small sample size alert!) and plopped them on a chart. Take a look! Better in H2H More consistency Great Player Adrian Gonzalez Edwin Encarnacion Chris Davis Brandon Moss Mark Trumbo Daniel Murphy Mike Napoli Freddie Freeman Joey Votto Less balance More balance David Ortiz Prince Fielder Allen Craig Paul Goldschmidt Eric Hosmer Michael Cuddyer Bad Player Less consistency Better in Roto @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 16 | Baseball Professor Who's HR/FB Rate Over- or UnderPerformed Their Average FB Distance? 30.0% 25.0% HR/FB 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 240 250 260 270 280 290 Average FB Distance 300 310 320 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 17 If you find yourself wondering whether a certain player deserved to hit as high (or low) as he did last year, rather than look at his BABIP and try to decipher whether he was lucky or unlucky just reference the chart below. Our xBA calculation takes everything you need to know into account and spits out what each hitter should have hit. The chart is easy to read: If your player lands above the line then he was unlucky (lower BA than xBA), but if he’s below the line then he was lucky and could be due for regression. It’s as easy as that! BA vs. Expected BA, 2013 Season .360 Unlucky .340 .320 Expected Batting Average .300 .280 .260 .240 .220 Lucky .200 .200 .220 .240 .260 .280 .300 .320 .340 .360 Batting Average @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 18 | Baseball Professor First Base 2014 Preview Jake Devereaux’s Dynasty / Keeper League Watch List Rk Prospect Team Age ETA Comments Why isn’t Franco listed at 3B? The team has all but assured the public of his move by Late 2014 announcing he would spend time at first base this spring. His potent bat immediately jumps him to the head of a weak class. Last year was a step in the wrong direction for Singleton between the suspension and the Mid 2014 subpar numbers at AAA. I expect that he will get back on track in 2014 after as strong season of winter ball. He still has mounds of talent. The youngest guy on this list Smith was a first round pick by the Mets in 2013. Smith 2016 shows tremendous athleticism at the position and has a relatively advanced approach at the plate for his level. 1 Maikel Franco PHI 21 2 Jonathan Singleton HOU 22 3 Dominic Smith NYM 19 4 Dan Vogelbach CHC 21 2015 The Cubs slugger is criticized often for his bad body and lack of athletic ability. One thing he has no problem doing is hitting the baseball. If he continues to show great BB% and K% to go along with the power he should find himself in Wrigley in by 2015. 5 Kyle Parker COL 24 Late 2014 Parker has a whole bunch of power and a great home park in which to play in. He has hit 20+ HR’s at A, A+, and AA over the last three years. I believe in this kid. Top 40 Rankings / Auction ($) Values Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Player Name Miguel Cabrera Paul Goldschmidt Joey Votto Prince Fielder Edwin Encarnacion Freddie Freeman Chris Davis Albert Pujols Eric Hosmer Adrian Gonzalez David Ortiz Allen Craig Daniel Murphy Buster Posey Jose Abreu Joe Mauer Mark Trumbo Carlos Santana Jonathan Lucroy Billy Butler $ Value $42 $35 $33 $26 $25 $25 $23 $21 $20 $20 $19 $16 $15 $15 $15 $14 $11 $11 $9 $8 Rank 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Player Name Michael Cuddyer Brandon Belt Anthony Rizzo Victor Martinez Mike Napoli Adam LaRoche Corey Hart Mark Teixeira Kendrys Morales Brandon Moss Ike Davis Nick Swisher Matt Adams Yonder Alonso Chris Carter Daniel Nava James Loney Justin Smoak Mitch Moreland Ryan Howard $ Value $8 $7 $7 $6 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $3 $3 $3 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 A Closer Look...First Base Superlatives Superlative Biggest Risk Safest Bet Mid-Round Sleeper Late-Round Sleeper Don't Believe the Hype Post-Hype Sleeper Best Value Pick Player You Always Own Player You Never Own Round I'll Draft 1B Better in Points Leagues Better in Roto Leagues Better in H2H Leagues Better in Keeper Leagues Matt Commins Albert Pujols Paul Goldschmidt Anthony Rizzo Corey Hart Justin Smoak Anthony Rizzo Edwin Encarcion Allen Craig Albert Pujols 1st/2nd Joey Votto Eric Hosmer Chris Carter Eric Hosmer Eric Broutman Albert Pujols Paul Goldschmidt Mark Teixeira Ike Davis Brandon Belt Ike Davis Adrian Gonzalez Kendrys Morales Eric Hosmer 1st or 8th/9th Joey Votto Michael Cuddyer Adam Laroche Freddie Freeman Paul Beck Eric Hosmer Prince Fielder Jose Abreu Chris Carter Eric Hosmer Logan Morrison Adrian Gonzalez Adam LaRoche Prince Fielder 9th Edwin Encarnacion Nick Swisher Paul Goldschmidt Jose Abreu Adam Nodiff Albert Pujols Joey Votto Brandon Belt Kendrys Morales Anthony Rizzo Justin Smoak Freddie Freeman Freddie Freeman Adrian Gonzalez 3rd-4th Chris Carter Eric Hosmer Chris Davis Paul Goldschmidt Jake Devereaux Allen Craig Paul Goldschmidt Albert Pujols Jose Abreu Brandon Belt Anthony Rizzo Mark Trumbo Matt Adams Eric Hosmer 3rd Anthony Rizzo Miguel Cabrera Paul Goldschmidt Paul Goldschmidt @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 19 Miguel Cabrera | DET | Age: 31 | Rk: 1 (2) Prince Fielder | TEX | Age: 30 | Rk: 4 (12) Position: 1B/3B Position: 1B Cabrera will not play 3B, which is great for fantasy owners. The back-to-back MVP struggled mightily down the stretch (.056 ISO in Sep.) due to minor injuries, so the move to 1B should keep him healthy. Even better for 2014, Cabrera will maintain 3B eligibility. There’s not much to say about his offense as his production speaks for itself. He’s the best hitter in the game and only 31 years old. (Note: We ranked him at 1B since he’ll gain it within a week.) Fielder posted career lows in power (.178 ISO) and walk rate (10.5%), which isn’t a good sign for a 29-year-old. Now he gets a fresh start in Texas, which also happens to be an established HR haven. In addition to his struggles on the field, Fielder also went through a divorce in May, which could have impacted his focus. We think a fresh start in Texas will bring nothing but good and Fielder should return to his elite status in what could be baseball’s most potent offense in 2014. Players with similar stat lines: Paul Goldschmidt; Joey Votto; Adrian Beltre 2011 2012 2013 2014 161 161 148 159 688 697 652 698 111 109 103 104 2011 2012 2013 2014 12.9 14.1 14.4 14.3 15.7 9.5 13.8 13.3 1.30 1.17 1.03 1.14 30 44 44 38 2 4 3 3 .344 .330 .348 .330 .317 .330 .345 .330 2011 2012 2013 2014 162 162 162 162 692 690 712 704 95 83 82 87 .365 .331 .356 .338 8.48 10.46 12.02 11.66 7 3 1 2 2011 2012 2013 2014 15.3 12.2 16.4 15.5 15.5 12.3 10.5 12.1 1.16 1.24 1.13 1.17 105 139 137 128 22.1 18.2% 21.7 23.0% 24.0 25.4% 22.7 23.9% Players with similar stat lines: Adrian Beltre; Evan Longoria; David Ortiz 38 30 25 34 120 108 106 103 19.8 21.8% 25.4 17.9% 22.9 13.5% 23.0 21.3% 1 1 1 1 .299 .313 .279 .290 .308 .331 .279 .310 .306 .321 .307 .293 7.01 5.47 4.29 5.94 16 21 46 12 Paul Goldschmidt | ARI | Age: 26 | Rk: 2 (5) Edwin Encarnacion | TOR | Age: 31 | Rk: 5 (14) Position: 1B Position: 1B/3B Goldschmidt’s swift rise to stardom has been thanks to major improvements in both plate discipline and his ability to stay on the field. When he first came up there were questions regarding whether he could cut down on the strikeouts. He has. His strikeout rate has gone down in each of his 3 seasons -- from 29.9% to 20.4% -- which has also helped him hit .286 and .302 in his last two seasons. Add in double-digit steals to his already sweet power upside and you have the most complete first basemen in fantasy baseball. After a monster 2012 season everyone expected some regression, but Encarnacion basically replicated his numbers across the board despite suffering a wrist injury. Maybe the most impressive thing about him is his miniscule 10.0 K%, which is unheard of for bigtime power hitters. He may be 31 years old, which should be a factor in keeper drafts, but those in redraft leagues should be good to go. These years, a .270/30/100 player is very valuable in fantasy. Players with similar stat lines: Prince Fielder; Edwin Encarnacion; Adam Jones 2011 2012 2013 2014 48 145 160 160 177 587 710 702 28 82 103 94 2011 2012 2013 2014 29.9 22.1 20.4 19.5 11.3 10.2 13.9 13.8 1.16 1.12 1.28 1.19 8 20 36 37 4 18 15 11 .250 .286 .302 .290 .251 .282 .306 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 134 151 142 156 530 644 621 633 70 93 90 91 .323 .340 .343 .306 -4.15 3.60 9.83 8.40 558 60 5 5 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.5 14.6 10.0 13.0 8.1 13.0 13.2 12.6 0.82 0.67 0.81 0.76 26 82 125 115 21.2 21.1% 23.9 14.2% 21.2 22.5% 22.2 25.4% Players with similar stat lines: Evan Longoria; Jay Bruce; Prince Fielder 17 42 36 34 55 110 104 98 19.4 9.4% 17.6 18.7% 21.6 17.6% 19.7 17.6% 8 13 7 7 .272 .280 .272 .280 .243 .302 .323 .290 .292 .266 .247 .268 0.48 6.89 6.08 5.85 170 10 20 14 Joey Votto | CIN | Age: 30 | Rk: 3 (7) Freddie Freeman | ATL | Age: 24 | Rk: 6 (15) Position: 1B Position: 1B A lot has been made about Votto’s 73 RBI last year. If he wants to be considered an elite first baseman then he needs to be driving in at least 20 more runs. He doesn’t swing at a lot of pitches, which is great for the real-life Reds as it optimizes his OBP (career .419), but it limits his HR potential. We believe his RBI output was a fluke last year, but know when you’re drafting Votto you’re going to have those frustrating games where he walks four times and scores two runs with 0 RBI. Players with similar stat lines: Freddie Freeman; Robinson Cano; Troy Tulowitzki 2011 2012 2013 2014 161 111 162 161 719 475 726 717 101 59 101 92 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.9 17.9 19.0 18.1 15.3 19.8 18.6 17.3 1.17 1.18 1.50 1.30 29 14 24 27 103 56 73 94 27.5 18.2% 30.2 15.1% 27.2 18.3% 28.0 21.0% Freeman is a line drive hitting machine (career 25.1 LD%) and it finally showed in his .371 BABIP and .319 BA. Freeman should continue to be a candidate for future batting titles as his batted ball profile suggests that he can sustain a high BABIP. However, that same profile that is good for a high batting average, isn’t quite so helpful when it comes to his power numbers. His career 35.6 FB% is lower than we’d like, reducing the likelihood of 30 HR seasons, but I guess a .300+ BA and 24-26 HR will just have to do. Players with similar stat lines: Adrian Gonzalez; Matt Holliday; Robinson Cano 8 5 6 6 .309 .337 .305 .310 .334 .329 .322 .330 2011 2012 2013 2014 157 147 147 153 635 620 629 665 67 91 89 91 21 23 23 26 76 94 109 96 4 2 1 2 .282 .259 .319 .300 .277 .293 .315 .290 .349 .404 .360 .341 6.84 1.15 5.52 6.91 19 144 27 7 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.4 20.8 19.2 19.4 8.3 10.3 10.5 11.3 1.23 1.01 1.08 1.09 23.0 26.0 26.7 25.5 14.0% 14.8% 15.0% 17.3% .339 .295 .371 .337 1.70 2.20 6.14 5.72 119 108 19 15 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 20 | Baseball Professor Chris Davis | BAL | Age: 28 | Rk: 7 (21) Adrian Gonzalez | LAD | Age: 32 | Rk: 10 (36) Position: 1B Position: 1B If you follow our ranking of Davis then it’s likely he won’t land on any of your teams. That may not be a bad thing. The blunt truth is that Davis’ batted ball profile screams regression for 2014 and while he should still be a very valuable fantasy player -- thanks in large part to his power -- he’s not someone I am comfortable taking in the 1st round. His crazy-high 29.6 K% means a .286 BA is not likely to repeat barring another 50 HR season, and his 38 HR pace in the 2nd half means a that season probably isn’t coming. The elite days are gone, but if you adjust your expectations to the player he’s been over the last two seasons -- .290 BA, 25 HR, 100 RBI -- then you can save yourself some disappointment. What hurts Gonzalez’s value is that he’s become rather useless in two categories (R, SB). It seems as if his name value has all but run out and 2014 may be the first year he’s actually coming at a proper value. FantasyPros “experts” have Gonzalez as the 10th-best 1B and 64th player overall. He’s much better than that overall rank. Players with similar stat lines: Jay Bruce; Giancarlo Stanton; Evan Longoria 2011 2012 2013 2014 59 139 160 151 210 562 673 633 25 75 103 87 2011 2012 2013 2014 30.0 30.1 29.6 29.7 5.2 6.6 10.7 9.8 1.04 1.05 0.71 0.90 5 33 53 39 19 85 138 102 25.0 10.0% 23.2 25.2% 21.9 29.6% 22.7 29.7% Players with similar stat lines: Freddie Freeman; Allen Craig; Buster Posey 1 2 4 3 .266 .270 .286 .270 .255 .276 .283 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 159 159 157 158 715 684 641 687 108 75 69 79 .366 .335 .336 .309 -4.91 2.61 10.56 5.25 664 95 3 21 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.6 16.1 15.3 16.0 10.3 6.1 7.3 8.0 1.45 1.13 0.98 0.98 27 18 22 25 117 108 100 97 21.2 16.4% 24.1 9.6% 22.8 11.4% 22.0 13.1% 1 2 1 1 .338 .299 .293 .300 .292 .271 .282 .280 .380 .334 .315 .321 8.26 3.31 3.64 4.68 10 68 58 36 Albert Pujols | LAA | Age: 34 | Rk: 8 (30) David Ortiz | BOS | Age: 38 | Rk: 11 (37) Position: 1B Position: 1B We all know how bad Pujols was in 2013, but it’s tough to quantify how much of those struggles were because of age regression and how much were due to his foot injury. Finally opting for corrective surgery, we have believe his foot probelm to be a thing of the past, but there’s definitely some risk in drafting the 34-year-old. There has still been a disturbing trend with his increased swing rate on pitches outside the zone, but he was successful in 2011 and 2012 with a similar approach. Ortiz continues to keep Father Time at bay as he turned in his first 30/100 season since 2010 while hitting over .300 for the 3rd consecutive season. He’s turning 38 years old and his production is bound to fall off at some point. It’s this impending feeling of doom that has both knocked down his draft-day cost and made him a great value in each of the last 2 seasons. As long as he’s on the field, Ortiz’s great discipline and power make him a valuable fantasy asset. Players with similar stat lines: David Ortiz; Carlos Beltran; Evan Longoria 2011 2012 2013 2014 147 154 99 152 651 670 443 656 105 85 49 82 2011 8.9 2012 11.3 2013 12.4 2014 11.9 9.4 7.8 9.0 8.8 1.17 1.04 0.91 1.01 37 30 17 30 99 105 64 100 17.0 18.3% 18.8 14.0% 19.8 11.8% 18.6 15.7% Players with similar stat lines: Albert Pujols; Carlos Beltran; Evan Longoria 9 8 1 3 .299 .285 .258 .280 .300 .278 .265 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 146 90 137 139 605 383 600 604 84 65 84 81 .277 .282 .258 .279 7.14 4.80 -0.79 4.82 14 35 251 30 2011 2012 2013 2014 13.7 13.3 14.7 15.4 12.9 14.6 12.7 12.4 1.10 0.88 1.00 1.01 29 23 30 30 96 60 103 97 21.4 17.5% 21.5 20.0% 22.6 17.9% 21.4 20.3% 1 0 4 2 .309 .318 .309 .290 .305 .304 .301 .300 .321 .316 .321 .289 4.86 1.09 6.26 4.68 35 152 18 37 Eric Hosmer | KC | Age: 24 | Rk: 9 (31) Allen Craig | STL | Age: 29 | Rk: 12 (44) Position: 1B Position: 1B/OF In 2013, Hosmer proved that his 2012 season was a major fluke in terms of batting average. His BABIP sky-rocketed back up to .335, which helped him hit .302, and similar numbers are what we can expect going forward. The one major knock on Hosmer is his lack of true 1B power. Hosmer just doesn’t hit enough flyballs (career 28.0 FB%) to be a 2530 HR hitter and he will likely top out in the 18-23 HR range unless that changes. His 10+ SB potential currently boosts his value a bunch, but he’ll eventually he’ll need to trade the speed for some dingers. For his career, Craig has batted .283 with the bases empty (738 PA) and .251 with men on first base (255 PA), but he’s batted .394 with RISP (407 PA). That .394 average is far and away the best in the league among the 178 players with at least 400 such PA over that span. Miguel Cabrera is number two at .366, nearly 30 points back. However, Craig hit just 13 HR thanks to his fly ball rate dipping under 30%. It’s likely he regresses towards the mean in both of these areas. We’ll see a player with a bit more power in 2014. Players with similar stat lines: Josh Donaldson; Dustin Pedroia; David Wright 2011 2012 2013 2014 128 152 159 156 563 598 680 675 66 65 86 85 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.6 15.9 14.7 14.7 6.0 9.4 7.5 9.2 1.57 1.92 2.11 1.35 19 14 17 21 78 60 79 86 18.7 13.5% 18.5 11.3% 22.4 13.0% 20.0 12.7% Players with similar stat lines: Buster Posey; Robinson Cano; Adrian Gonzalez 11 16 11 10 .293 .232 .302 .300 .267 .266 .311 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 75 119 134 144 219 514 563 600 33 76 71 77 .314 .255 .335 .320 2.51 -0.95 4.50 4.82 83 262 42 31 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.3 17.3 17.8 17.5 6.8 7.2 7.1 7.0 1.18 1.32 1.60 1.39 11 22 13 23 40 92 97 87 19.1 18.3% 22.7 17.1% 26.9 11.2% 24.4 17.1% 5 2 2 2 .315 .307 .315 .310 .288 .301 .313 .300 .344 .334 .368 .337 -2.03 3.02 3.39 4.22 334 81 64 44 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 21 Daniel Murphy | NYM | Age: 29 | Rk: 13 (49) Joe Mauer | MIN | Age: 31 | Rk: 16 (64) Position: 1B/2B Position: C/1B Sometimes you don’t have to be an uber-talented player to put up a great fantasy season. In 2013 Murphy showed exactly that. His above-average skills met plenty of opportunity as he amassed a career-high 697 PA with the majority of them coming in the 2nd spot in the lineup. Murphy actually posted worse walk and strikeout rates last year, but he stole 23 bases out of nowhere (previous career high was 10). Given his 89% success rate we should expect him to continue running. Mauer has worn the Scarlett I (for “injury prone”) for the better part of his career, but those concerns are alleviated a bit this year as he transitions to first base. There’s no doubt getting out from behind the plate will help Mauer stay healthy, but could it mean we see more HR power? We’ll need to wait and see about that, but for now you can feel comfortable penciling Mauer in for a .300+ BA and some solid R/ RBI production in what could be a career-best number of PA. Players with similar stat lines: Dustin Pedroia; Shane Victorino; Shin-Soo Choo 2011 2012 2013 2014 Players with similar stat lines: Victor Martinez; Allen Craig; Yadier Molina 109 156 161 160 423 612 697 685 49 62 92 86 6 6 13 14 49 65 78 71 5 10 23 19 .320 .291 .286 .300 .288 .312 .262 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 82 147 113 138 333 641 508 615 38 81 62 82 2011 9.9 2012 13.4 2013 13.6 2014 13.4 5.7 5.9 4.6 5.4 1.51 2.03 1.17 1.40 21.9 24.3 21.3 19.8 5.5% 4.9% 6.3% 7.8% .345 .329 .315 .324 -0.65 0.13 4.75 4.08 238 200 39 49 2011 2012 2013 2014 11.4 13.7 17.5 17.1 9.6 14.0 12.0 13.5 2.57 2.35 1.85 1.21 3 10 11 11 30 85 47 84 23.1 5.4% 25.0 9.7% 27.7 12.1% 20.4 7.6% 0 8 0 1 .287 .319 .324 .310 .308 .315 .315 .310 .319 .364 .383 .363 -3.70 3.20 0.63 3.36 506 74 175 64 Buster Posey | SF | Age: 27 | Rk: 14 (55) Mark Trumbo | ARI | Age: 28 | Rk: 17 (67) Position: C/1B Position: 1B/OF There’s no doubt who the top catcher is in fantasy this year -- it’s Posey. After a scorching 1st half in which the San Fran backstop hit .325, he never found his groove after the All-Star break, putting up a “What the f***”-inducing .244/2/16 line in 58 2nd-half games. Posey has reportedly bulked up this offseason in an attempt to withstand the 162-game grind better, but it’s not like these late-season slides are a regular occurrence. In 2012 he posted a .385/14/60 line after the break. Regardless, Posey is the best catcher in fantasy. Now in Arizona, Trumbo should be a safe bet to post his best offensive season of his career. He’s an established 30 HR threat with a solid walk rate, but where he really hurts himself is in his inability to make contact. His strikeout rate and contact on pitches in the zone have gotten worse, and until he fixes these holes he will be stuck in the .230-.245 range. Still, Trumbo should see a boost in power numbers for 2014, which means he could approach 40 HR in a park where the ball really carries. Players with similar stat lines: Allen Craig; Billy Butler; Adrian Gonzalez 2011 2012 2013 2014 45 148 148 144 185 610 595 606 17 78 61 72 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.2 15.7 11.8 12.9 9.7 11.3 10.1 11.2 1.79 1.61 1.44 1.11 4 24 15 22 21 103 72 89 18.0 10.3% 24.6 18.8% 19.9 10.0% 23.3 14.4% Players with similar stat lines: Pedro Alvarez; Jay Bruce; Giancarlo Stanton 3 1 2 3 .284 .336 .294 .300 .258 .342 .276 .300 2011 2012 2013 2014 149 144 159 155 573 586 678 658 65 66 85 83 .326 .368 .312 .312 -4.86 5.09 1.39 3.77 652 27 146 55 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.9 26.1 27.1 25.1 4.4 6.1 8.0 9.1 1.19 1.13 1.24 1.79 29 32 34 36 87 95 100 97 15.9 17.9% 16.0 20.6% 17.0 20.9% 21.4 32.8% 9 4 5 4 .254 .268 .234 .250 .247 .243 .243 .240 .274 .316 .273 .268 2.14 2.62 3.51 3.26 98 94 63 67 Jose Abreu | CHW | Age: 27 | Rk: 15 (62) Billy Butler | KC | Age: 28 | Rk: 18 (82) Position: 1B Position: 1B As much as I’d like to sit here and say, “Abreu’s Cuban stats translate to x HR and y RBI with a z BA,” we really just can’t know any of that stuff. We have him projected for a healthy .280 BA, 28 HR, and 86 RBI, which wouldn’t shock us given all the hype he’s generating this offseason. However, there are some questions regarding playing time and how his skills will translate in the majors. The bar at first base is set high if he wants to become an elite option, but the upside is definitely there. In keeper leagues, buy now. Players with similar stat lines: Wilin Rosario; Yoenis Cespedes; Michael Cuddyer 2011 2012 2013 2014 138 600 74 2011 2012 2013 2014 26.0 9.7 1.02 28 86 20.1 20.5% While we have Butler listed as a 1B, it’s possible that he doesn’t qualify there in your league (7 G, 7 GS). Butler will also be looking to rebound from a poor 2013 season that saw him post his career-worst .124 ISO, all coming after what was a promising 2012 season where he posted a .197 ISO. While he kept his rate stats in check, the problem was that he hit twice as many ground balls as fly balls, hich isn’t a recipe for success if you want to hit HR. Players with similar stat lines: Pablo Sandoval; Aramis Ramirez; Buster Posey 7 .280 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 159 161 162 161 673 679 668 664 74 72 62 71 .328 3.51 62 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.1 16.3 15.3 15.8 9.8 8.0 11.8 10.5 1.27 1.64 2.01 1.68 19 29 15 21 95 107 82 87 18.7 10.4% 23.9 19.9% 20.5 11.7% 21.2 15.9% 2 2 0 0 .291 .313 .289 .290 .268 .328 .283 .290 .316 .341 .326 .314 2.82 4.89 1.57 2.65 75 33 138 82 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 22 | Baseball Professor Carlos Santana | CLE | Age: 28 | Rk: 19 (90) Mike Napoli | BOS | Age: 32 | Rk: 22 (110) Position: C/1B Position: 1B Santana bats at the heart of a solid Indians lineup and, like Joe Mauer, is making the transition from catcher to 1B. His offensive numbers when not catching are noticeably better than when he is, but regardless, Santana is a fairly elite fantasy option given the position he plays. He dominates in OBP leagues, but can he post that breakout season we’ve all been expecting? I figured we would have seen a .280/28/90 season by now. Players with similar stat lines: Adam LaRoche; Corey Hart; Josh Hamilton 2011 2012 2013 2014 155 143 154 157 658 609 642 645 84 72 75 82 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.2 16.6 17.1 16.7 14.7 14.9 14.5 14.3 1.12 1.14 1.19 1.15 27 18 20 23 79 76 74 85 15.4 16.0% 19.1 11.5% 21.8 13.0% 19.3 14.9% Just like Victor Martinez, Napoli will be saying goodbye to his C eligibility for the 1st time this year. However, unlike Martinez, Napoli actually poses a skill set that can be used effectively at the power corner. His aggressive approach at the plate, coupled with his strength, is conducive to 25-30 HR seasons (and the Green Monster doesn’t hurt). His high-walk, high-whiff rates are more useful in OBP leagues, but he also managed a 24.4 LD% last year, which helped him bat a respectable .259. Players with similar stat lines: Josh Willingham; Josh Hamilton; Mark Teixeira 5 3 3 2 .239 .252 .268 .270 .214 .257 .271 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 113 108 139 142 432 417 578 603 72 53 79 77 .263 .278 .301 .289 1.32 -0.06 1.73 2.40 130 209 130 90 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.7 30.0 32.4 30.7 13.4 13.4 12.6 13.1 0.95 0.97 0.95 1.56 30 24 23 27 75 56 92 86 19.6 25.4% 19.2 25.5% 24.4 19.0% 20.6 28.7% 4 1 1 0 .320 .227 .259 .260 .308 .255 .241 .270 .344 .273 .367 .324 3.71 -1.80 2.41 1.84 58 326 99 110 Victor Martinez | DET | Age: 35 | Rk: 20 (95) Adam LaRoche | WAS | Age: 34 | Rk: 23 (118) Position: 1B Position: 1B With only 3 GS behind the plate last year, we can officially kiss Martinez’s catcher eligibility goodbye, and with just 11 GS at 1B it may not be long until he’s a utility-only player. Along with his C eligibility goes a lot of his fantasy value as no one really wants to own a contact-first, power-second 1B who’s 35 years old. After missing all of 2012, Martinez showed that even at his advanced age he can still hit .300 thanks to high contact rates, and batting in the middle of the order should provide him with ample RBI opportunities. LaRoche is coming off a down year after 7 very consistent and productive years. Over those 7 seasons, LaRoche was a lock for .270/25/80, but he managed just .238/20/62 last year. The main culprit? His splits vs. LHP. In 2012, LaRoche posted a .236 ISO vs. both RHP and LHP, but last year his ISO was .115 vs. LHP and .184 vs. RHP. Those splits may stay split, but LaRoche still has been one of the more consistent fantasy players over the last 8 years. It was just last year he won our inaugural Battle of the ADPs bracket! Players with similar stat lines: Yadier Molina; Pablo Sandoval; Buster Posey 2011 2012 2013 2014 Players with similar stat lines: Carlos Santana; Mike Napoli; Josh Hamilton 145 159 157 595 668 653 76 68 65 12 14 14 103 83 89 1 0 1 .330 .301 .300 .293 .285 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 43 154 152 154 177 647 590 617 15 76 70 77 2011 8.6 2012 2013 9.3 2014 10.7 7.7 8.1 8.1 1.29 1.19 1.57 24.2 22.3 19.6 7.3% 7.2% 8.8% .343 .313 .317 3.89 2.33 2.31 53 100 95 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.9 21.3 22.2 17.8 14.1 10.4 12.2 12.0 1.11 0.76 0.89 1.38 3 33 20 24 15 100 62 82 19.1 6.8% 22.3 17.0% 21.7 12.6% 23.8 18.9% 1 1 4 2 .172 .271 .237 .260 .229 .265 .251 .260 .205 .298 .277 .282 -6.88 3.22 -0.17 1.70 1121 71 220 118 Michael Cuddyer | COL | Age: 35 | Rk: 21 (96) Corey Hart | SEA | Age: 32 | Rk: 24 (120) Position: 1B/OF Position: 1B It’s hard to imagine a season going any better for Cuddyer than last year. He posted a career-high .389 BABIP, which led to not only his first .300+ BA season, but also an NL batting title. It should be no surprise that Cuddyer was able to post monster numbers with half his games coming at Coors Field, where he managed a .356/.414/.582 slash, but it’s tough to believe that he will replicate career-highs across the board again in 2014, but the Coors Field effect is definitely a nice boost to his fantasy value. Players with similar stat lines: Chase Utley; Marlon Byrd; Xander Bogaerts 2011 2012 2013 2014 139 101 130 135 584 394 540 559 70 53 74 71 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.3 19.8 18.5 17.9 8.2 8.1 8.5 8.1 1.44 1.57 1.65 1.21 20 16 20 20 70 58 84 80 17.8 13.6% 20.4 18.2% 20.2 16.9% 23.4 14.9% A lot of Hart’s 2014 value rests in his precious knees, which were operated on last summer. It’s likely he will start off the season primarily as a DH then gradually move over to 1B and maybe play some OF. After sitting out all of 2013, it’s likely Hart will slip down plenty of draft boards, which allows you to make the shrewd draft pick in the late rounds. When healthy, Hart can hit for power (career .215 ISO) and he doesn’t kill you in batting average either (career .276). Players with similar stat lines: Brian McCann; Will Middlebrooks; Kendrys Morales 11 8 10 8 .284 .260 .331 .280 .273 .300 .309 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 130 149 142 551 622 587 80 91 67 .312 .287 .382 .307 2.15 -0.94 5.09 2.26 96 261 32 96 2011 20.7 2012 24.3 2013 2014 23.3 9.3 7.1 8.5 1.28 0.99 0.87 26 30 24 63 83 81 20.6 19.7% 19.3 18.1% 19.2 14.8% 7 5 3 .285 .270 .270 .294 .268 .280 .323 .318 .314 2.55 3.23 1.69 82 70 120 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 23 Jonathan Lucroy | MIL | Age: 28 | Rk: 25 (121) Anthony Rizzo | CHC | Age: 24 | Rk: 28 (140) Position: C/1B Position: 1B A well-rounded hitter who’d been knocking on the door for a couple years, particularly with his great per-game production in 2012, Lucroy finally put together his breakout campaign in 2013. He ranked 3rd among all catchers on the year and was 1 of just 2 to top 80 RBI (Yadier Molina was the other). Will Lucroy follow up his solid season with a repeat campaign? Why not! His K% and BB% both improved last season, and he’s a line drive machine. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to say Lucroy should be number 2 on this list. A lot of noise has been generated thanks to Rizzo’s .233 BA in 2013 and many will point to his .255 BABIP as the main culprit. Sure, it’s a part of the puzzle, but he also struggles to hit left-handed pitching (.189 BA last year, but with some oddly stark home/road splits). There’s no doubt that Rizzo has the power and contact skills to become a very good fantasy player and we may not be far from a 30 HR season, but he will continue to be held back until he can somewhat figure out left-handed pitching. Players with similar stat lines: Aramis Ramirez; Pablo Sandoval; Jason Castro 2011 2012 2013 2014 136 96 147 141 468 346 580 565 45 46 59 61 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.2 12.7 11.9 12.0 6.2 6.4 7.9 7.6 1.23 1.11 1.03 0.99 12 12 18 17 59 58 82 81 24.2 10.7% 21.1 11.7% 22.8 10.3% 20.7 9.9% Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Moss; Nelson Cruz; Mark Teixeira 2 4 9 6 .265 .320 .280 .290 .265 .297 .296 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 49 87 160 160 153 368 690 686 9 44 71 75 .317 .338 .290 .301 -1.73 -0.64 2.15 1.69 307 246 110 121 2011 2012 2013 2014 30.1 16.8 18.4 19.2 13.7 7.3 11.0 11.5 0.97 1.51 1.12 1.60 1 15 23 27 9 48 80 78 13.4 2.8% 24.4 18.1% 19.6 12.6% 20.1 20.3% 2 3 6 4 .141 .285 .233 .250 .165 .321 .259 .270 .210 .310 .258 .274 -7.66 -1.70 0.78 1.36 1222 314 167 140 Mark Teixeira | NYY | Age: 34 | Rk: 26 (125) Kendrys Morales | FA | Age: 31 | Rk: 29 (148) Position: 1B Position: 1B There are questions surrounding Teixeira’s wrist injury and whether he can be productive coming off major surgery at 34 years old. He’s still capable of hitting 30 HR with 90 RBI given the Yankees’ lineup makeover. There’s a chance Teixeira is extremely undervalued in drafts as many have completely written him off, and that makes him great buy-low option. The one part of his game that shouldn’t rebound is his batting average. Right now he’s a .250 hitter through and through. Where Morales ends up for 2014 will have a significant impact on his draft day value, so as he sits in free agency we can only talk about the skills he brings to the table in a full-time role. Last year, he didn’t set the world on fire with his .277/.336/.479 slash and 23 HR, but it was still good for 20th-best among 1B. No matter where he lands in 2014 he should be able to contribute in four of the five fantasy categories, which makes him a valuable commodity, especially in the middle-to-late rounds. Players with similar stat lines: Josh Willingham; Brandon Moss; Mike Napoli 2011 2012 2013 2014 156 123 15 138 684 524 63 600 90 66 5 74 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.1 15.8 30.2 17.2 11.1 10.3 12.7 11.3 0.75 1.04 0.67 0.91 39 24 3 28 111 84 12 88 18.3 17.1% 19.5 16.0% 28.6 20.0% 23.5 17.8% Players with similar stat lines: Brian McCann; Corey Hart; Matt Adams 4 2 0 1 .248 .251 .151 .250 .266 .282 .235 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 134 156 144 522 657 578 61 64 64 .239 .250 .156 .257 4.39 0.55 -6.89 1.60 43 178 1005 125 2011 2012 22.2 2013 17.4 2014 18.7 5.9 7.5 6.7 1.81 1.50 2.26 22 23 24 73 80 76 20.5 21.0% 18.8 14.5% 22.4 25.4% 0 0 0 .273 .277 .280 .289 .277 .280 .315 .309 .300 0.26 1.92 1.22 194 120 148 Brandon Belt | SF | Age: 26 | Rk: 27 (132) Brandon Moss | OAK | Age: 30 | Rk: 30 (151) Position: 1B Position: 1B Belt’s offense took a nice step forward in 2013; he was able to maintain his .351 BABIP, he lowered his strikeout rate, and he increased his ISO from .146 to .193. With that improvement, his walk rate also fell, but we can deal with that since he still was able to post a .360 OBP. There’s no reason to believe that Belt shouldn’t keep improving at the age of 26 and he should eclipse the 20 HR mark as soon as 2014. The one thing holding him back is his ballpark, which currently suppresses homers with a 64 park factor for RHB. I think Pablo Sandoval bats 3rd and not Belt. Moss’ biggest flaw is his inability to hit left-handed pitchers -.200/.261/.388 slash in 2013 -- which will limit his PA. However, he still managed 30 HR last year despite just 505 PA, which is extremely impressive. Just imagine if he could hit the 585-600 PA mark! That won’t happen until he can hit all types of pitching, but if you can deal with the non-random benchings throughout the season (you’ll know when they’re coming), Moss should provide you with great power with solid R/RBI totals for where he’s going in drafts. Players with similar stat lines: Nolan Arenado; Kole Calhoun; Khris Davis 2011 2012 2013 2014 63 145 150 148 209 472 571 556 21 47 76 68 2011 2012 2013 2014 27.3 22.5 21.9 21.0 9.6 11.4 9.1 10.1 0.96 1.04 0.83 1.47 9 7 17 19 18 56 67 64 13.8 15.8% 25.6 6.2% 24.3 10.6% 20.7 16.7% Players with similar stat lines: Mark Teixeira; Anthony Rizzo; Alfonso Soriano 3 12 5 8 .225 .275 .289 .290 .220 .259 .272 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 5 84 145 140 6 296 505 500 0 48 73 71 .273 .351 .351 .328 -5.17 -1.35 2.15 1.48 698 289 109 132 2011 2012 2013 2014 33.3 30.4 27.7 29.0 0.0 8.8 9.9 9.8 1.00 0.72 0.58 2.23 0 21 30 28 0 52 87 82 0.0 0.0% 21.5 25.9% 18.1 18.8% 22.1 43.0% 0 1 4 3 .000 .291 .256 .250 -.010 .272 .237 .250 .000 .359 .301 .283 -0.92 2.96 1.19 259 78 151 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 24 | Baseball Professor Ike Davis | NYM | Age: 27 | Rk: 31 (157) Yonder Alonso | SD | Age: 27 | Rk: 34 (222) Position: 1B Position: 1B One of the all-time great baseball minds, Ron Shandler once said, “Once you display a skill, you own it.” If this is true, somewhere in there Davis still owns the power stroke that made us salivate over just 1 season ago. Unfortunately, 2 straight seasons with batting averages under .230 has put a dent in any consistent playing time. If he can get some BABIP luck there’s a .250/25/80 hitter in there somewhere, and his career 12.1 BB% makes him a great OBP league option. Alonso got off to a hot start in 2013 before a broken hand derailed any hopes of a breakout season. He returned in the 2nd half, but the effects of the injury kept him from hitting any HR. He did more than doubled his BB/K rate (0.47 to 1.13), and with a full offseason to recover from surgery and a full-time role in San Diego, Alonso seems poised for a true breakout campaign, especially if he can pair his health with his newfound discipline at the plate. Players with similar stat lines: Oswaldo Arcia; J.J. Hardy; Matt Adams 2011 2012 2013 2014 36 156 103 141 149 584 377 563 20 66 37 61 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.8 24.1 26.8 24.5 11.4 10.4 15.1 12.3 1.02 0.97 1.29 1.13 7 32 9 27 25 90 33 80 17.0 17.1% 21.1 21.1% 19.8 11.8% 20.7 22.5% Players with similar stat lines: James Loney; David Freese; Chris Johnson 0 0 4 2 .302 .227 .205 .260 .259 .263 .210 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 47 155 97 150 98 619 375 612 9 47 34 58 5 9 6 13 15 62 45 70 0 3 6 3 .330 .273 .281 .280 .296 .282 .257 .270 .344 .246 .268 .296 -4.42 0.45 -4.55 1.11 582 187 588 157 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.4 16.3 12.5 13.9 10.2 10.0 8.5 9.0 1.17 1.44 1.39 1.40 22.4 23.7 20.5 26.4 20.8% 6.4% 6.2% 9.5% .387 .318 .306 .305 -5.41 -1.77 -2.35 -0.17 739 323 360 222 Nick Swisher | CLE | Age: 33 | Rk: 32 (172) Chris Carter | HOU | Age: 27 | Rk: 35 (223) Position: 1B/OF Position: 1B/OF Swisher is the ultimate “doesn’t wow you” player and in 2013 that was especially true thanks to a shoulder injury that bothered him all season. Last year was a testament to his desire to stay on the field, but it definitely affected his performance, especially with his power vs. righties as he managed just a .150 ISO (career .220). His career 13.2 BB% makes him a great option in OBP leagues and it should also keep him near the top of the Indians lineup, which will optimize his plate appearances. Carter’s batted ball profile actually has a lot of similarities to Chris Davis’ as both players like to swing and miss but also hit a lot of fly balls (and HR) when they do make contact. To harness that raw power potential, Cartner needs to offer at more pitches and make more solid contact. In 2013, Carter swung at just 46% of pitches, made contact just 65.4% of the time, and also popped up 12.1% of his fly balls. If he can improve all three of those areas, we might be looking at Chris Davis light. Players with similar stat lines: Jedd Gyorko; Justin Smoak; Anthony Rizzo 2011 2012 2013 2014 150 148 145 145 635 624 634 630 81 75 74 85 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.7 22.6 21.8 21.9 15.0 12.3 12.1 13.0 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.96 23 24 22 24 85 93 63 70 21.8 14.3% 22.3 15.4% 23.1 13.7% 21.2 15.8% Players with similar stat lines: Adam Dunn; Mark Teixeira; Colby Rasmus 2 2 1 2 .260 .272 .246 .250 .272 .256 .264 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 15 67 148 152 46 260 585 615 2 38 64 63 .295 .324 .288 .281 1.70 2.08 0.30 0.82 118 111 190 172 2011 2012 2013 2014 43.5 31.9 36.2 34.3 4.3 15.0 12.0 13.0 0.36 0.75 0.66 0.73 0 16 29 31 0 39 82 87 37.5 0.0% 20.3 25.4% 22.4 20.7% 17.5 22.5% 0 0 2 1 .136 .239 .223 .230 .173 .247 .215 .230 .250 .295 .311 .283 -3.45 0.66 -0.18 466 174 223 Matt Adams | STL | Age: 25 | Rk: 33 (177) Daniel Nava | BOS | Age: 31 | Rk: 36 (225) Position: 1B Position: 1B All everyone talks about with Adams is his amazing power potential, but just because he looks like he can take down a 64 oz. steak in one sitting doesn’t make him a guaranteed 30+ HR. There’s 2 factors working against him here: (1) His playing time is likely to be streaky as the Cardinals currently have Allen Craig at 1B and Oscar Taveras lurking in AAA, and (2) Adams is an extreme pull hitter who is vulnerable to both defensive shifts and left-handed pitching. While he has some power upside, there’s a lot of risk here as well. In his first fullish season, Nava showed that he can provide solid rate stats, but the counting stats suffered a bit due to both his lack of a consistent starting job and being buried near the bottom of the lineup for half the time in 2013. He’s stuck in a platoon situation with Jonny Gomes, but Nava has the edge as he’s much better against right-handed pitchers, who make up 2/3 of the league’s arms, and Boston might need his OBP skills leading off (sometimes) . While Nava isn’t horrible against lefties he will continue to lose PA to Gomes. Players with similar stat lines: J.J. Hardy; Ike Davis; Will Middlebrooks 2011 2012 2013 2014 27 108 131 91 319 556 8 46 64 2011 2012 26.4 2013 25.1 2014 25.0 5.5 7.2 6.7 1.13 1.23 1.32 2 17 26 13 51 73 17.7 8.3% 19.4 21.8% 19.4 20.7% Players with similar stat lines: Jed Lowrie; Anthony Rendon; Omar Infante 0 0 0 .244 .284 .260 .224 .273 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 88 134 131 317 536 521 38 77 72 6 12 12 33 66 58 3 0 2 .243 .303 .280 .249 .289 .280 .317 .337 .306 -6.84 -0.95 0.67 1078 263 177 2011 2012 19.9 2013 17.4 2014 18.0 11.7 9.5 10.2 1.00 0.86 1.09 23.3 26.1 18.6 7.6% 8.2% 8.8% .295 .352 .322 -4.39 1.55 -0.20 565 141 225 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 25 James Loney | TB | Age: 30 | Rk: 37 (226) Ryan Howard | PHI | Age: 34 | Rk: 40 (245) Position: 1B Position: 1B Poor Loney can’t seem to get away from those pitcher’s parks. He went from Dodger Stadium to Tropicana Field, but lthankfully his high contact rates have allowed him to post a career .285 BA and .340 OBP. Those are solid rate numbers, but unfortunately his lack of power has him buried in every lineup he’s been in, which really limits his couting stats. Last year Loney hit a career-high .299 thanks to .326 BABIP and 29.8 LD%. Those numbers are likely to regress towards his career norms, but they highlight the value he can have. Players with similar stat lines: Yonder Alonso; David Freese; Chris Johnson 2011 2012 2013 2014 158 144 158 152 582 465 598 548 56 37 54 56 2011 2012 2013 2014 11.5 11.0 12.9 12.8 7.2 6.0 7.4 7.1 1.09 1.56 1.51 1.38 12 6 13 13 65 41 75 71 22.4 6.9% 24.7 5.3% 29.8 9.8% 27.8 10.2% Yes, 26 HR is an optimistic projection for Howard, who’s slugged just 25 HR over the last two seasons combined, but 26 HR in 476 PA is only a little higher than the rate he put up in 2012. Last year Howard saw his HR/FB rate fall to 14.9%, far from his normal low-to-mid-20s, so a resurgence of some sort is all but guaranteed should the Philly 1B be able to stay on the field for 3/4 of the season. Players with similar stat lines: Matt Dominguez; Nelson Cruz; Garrett Jones 4 0 3 3 .288 .249 .299 .280 .285 .295 .337 .310 2011 2012 2013 2014 152 71 80 119 644 292 317 476 81 28 34 51 .309 .269 .326 .301 0.08 -4.44 1.28 -0.20 198 571 149 226 2011 2012 2013 2014 26.7 33.9 30.0 28.8 11.6 8.6 7.3 9.0 1.03 1.39 1.03 1.45 33 14 11 26 116 56 43 71 20.8 21.7% 25.6 27.5% 23.9 14.9% 20.9 26.2% 1 0 0 2 .253 .219 .266 .250 .262 .279 .255 .260 .303 .287 .349 .291 3.55 -3.86 -2.89 -0.47 62 507 412 245 Justin Smoak | SEA | Age: 27 | Rk: 38 (233) Adam Lind | TOR | Age: 30 | Rk: 41 (247) Position: 1B Position: 1B Smoak posted career bests in several categories last year: R (53), HR (20), BA (.238), OBP (.334), SLG (.412), BB% (12.3), and HR/ FB (13.1%). It’s not so much that I don’t expect him to remain at those levels, it’s that those levels aren’t really that valuable. For all that’s made of Smoak’s 2nd-half power surge in 2013 (12 HR in 61 games), he only batted .203 during that span and he plays in a tough park. Smoak should continue to get better, but he’ll need to get much better to be universally rosterable. And no, he isn’t a sleeper. Lind has 20 HR power and is good for a .270ish average with modest R and RBI totals. While his average has fluctuated as high as .305 (2009) and as low as .237 (2010), there’s a relatively good amount of stability in Lind’s line. It’s not spectacular, but it can be useful in spurts. If he doesn’t figure out how to be at least semi-respectable against left-hended pitching he’ll find himself in a strict platoon situation, which could help his rate stats, but would definitely hurt his counting stats. Players with similar stat lines: Matt Wieters; Matt Davidson; Nelson Cruz 2011 2012 2013 2014 123 132 131 143 489 535 521 550 38 49 53 62 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.5 20.7 22.8 21.3 11.2 9.2 12.3 12.5 1.02 0.94 0.76 1.09 15 19 20 24 55 51 50 75 13.8 10.8% 18.2 12.0% 19.6 13.1% 18.2 18.2% Players with similar stat lines: Justin Morneau; Cody Ross; Mitch Moreland 0 1 0 1 .234 .217 .238 .250 .201 .225 .243 .220 2011 2012 2013 2014 125 93 143 133 542 353 521 515 56 28 67 51 26 11 23 20 87 45 67 66 1 0 1 1 .251 .255 .288 .270 .288 .240 .290 .280 .273 .242 .278 .270 -3.12 -3.34 -1.69 -0.27 437 456 308 233 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.7 17.3 19.8 20.0 5.9 8.2 9.8 8.7 1.05 1.40 1.40 1.04 21.8 17.1 21.3 19.9 17.0% 12.1% 19.2% 15.3% .265 .282 .324 .303 0.63 -3.93 1.89 -0.51 159 519 122 247 Mitch Moreland | TEX | Age: 28 | Rk: 39 (235) Garrett Jones | MIA | Age: 33 | Rk: 42 (255) Position: 1B Position: 1B/OF When Prince Fielder was traded to the Rangers, Moreland was instantly declared the biggest loser (not the show, though Fielder could be a contestant). While it’s true that Fielder clogs things up a bit at first base (I swear that wasn’t a fat joke), it’s not like Moreland completely loses out. He’ll still receive the bulk of Texas’ DH AB this year, and he’s coming off another season of improved HR/FB rates. This is when you take some risks, like going to the bathroom while dining out with Fielder and hoping your food is there when you get back (that was a fat joke). Players with similar stat lines: Cody Ross; Adam Lind; Matt Adams 2011 2012 2013 2014 134 114 147 135 512 357 518 500 60 41 60 58 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.0 19.9 22.6 19.4 7.6 6.4 8.7 8.0 1.03 1.12 1.09 2.18 16 15 23 22 51 50 60 67 18.0 10.6% 20.0 15.3% 17.3 16.5% 21.9 26.8% Jones hit 27 HR in 2012, then slumped to just 15 last year. The culprit? A career-worst 35.9 FB%. Odds are that rate improves in 2014. Jones isn’t a great contributor and has very limited upside, thanks to a complete inability to hit left-handed pitching. Last year, 94.7% of his PA came against right-handed pitching so his struggles at the plate are even more alarming. That being said, he’s slated to be the power-starved Marlins’ cleanup hitter so he could provide some decent value late in the draft in deeper leagues. Players with similar stat lines: Matt Dominguez; Matt Davidson; Matt Wieters 2 1 0 1 .259 .275 .232 .260 .249 .268 .244 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 148 145 144 144 478 515 440 545 51 68 41 56 16 27 15 21 58 86 51 77 6 2 2 2 .243 .274 .233 .250 .234 .284 .257 .260 .290 .306 .255 .285 -1.22 -2.20 -0.82 -0.30 268 354 254 235 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.8 20.0 23.0 22.2 10.0 6.4 7.0 7.3 0.79 0.96 1.12 1.30 19.5 18.5 23.9 21.2 11.0% 17.1% 13.6% 16.6% .283 .293 .271 .284 -1.49 1.83 -2.57 -0.63 285 119 383 255 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 26 | Baseball Professor Adam Dunn | CHW | Age: 34 | Rk: 43 (257) Paul Konerko | CHW | Age: 38 | Rk: 46 (281) Position: 1B Position: 1B Dunn has struck out over 30% of the time in 4 straight seasons and he’s abysmal defensively. Thankfully the DH position exists and HR are worth their weight in gold. While Jose Abreu complicates Chicago’s 1B/DH picture, Dunn’s left-handed power will be important for the White Sox, and for all his flaws he was still an above average offensive contributor last year. Paul Konerko, not Dunn, will be the guy who gets hit the most by Abreu’s presence. Jose Abreu is the future of first base in Chicago, but there are definite questions surrounding him as he hasn’t even stepped foot on MLB soil yet. In addition there were some encouraging signs that portend a rebound for the soon-to-be 38-year-old Konerko. Yes, he batted just .244 last year, but 14.2 K% was right in line with his recent seasons, and his 24.4 LD% was Konerko’s 3rd-best since 2002! That may not be enough to resurrect his fantasy value, but should Konerko get a chance, he’s more than capable of capitalizing. Players with similar stat lines: Chris Carter; Colby Rasmus; Brandon Moss 2011 2012 2013 2014 122 151 149 145 496 649 607 597 36 87 60 67 2011 2012 2013 2014 35.7 34.2 31.1 34.3 15.1 16.2 12.5 15.4 0.68 0.78 0.91 0.81 11 41 34 30 42 96 86 82 20.0 9.6% 22.4 29.3% 19.5 23.8% 20.7 26.2% Players with similar stat lines: Chris Johnson; Oscar Taveras; A.J. Pierzynski 0 2 1 2 .159 .204 .219 .220 .158 .250 .249 .220 2011 2012 2013 2014 149 144 126 98 639 598 520 376 69 66 41 41 .240 .246 .266 .264 -6.71 1.65 0.90 -0.69 1085 129 164 257 2011 2012 2013 2014 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.4 12.1 9.4 8.7 9.8 0.91 1.13 0.92 1.04 31 26 12 16 105 75 54 57 22.4 16.4% 22.3 15.8% 24.4 7.7% 20.8 15.7% 1 0 0 2 .300 .298 .244 .290 .291 .299 .282 .290 .304 .312 .265 .295 4.49 2.00 -2.75 -1.41 41 116 396 281 Chris Johnson | ATL | Age: 29 | Rk: 44 (260) Gaby Sanchez | PIT | Age: 30 | Rk: 47 (291) Position: 1B/3B Position: 1B Johnson is not a .320 hitter — you know that — but he is a .280+ hitter. His 27.0 LD% was a blistering rate and it’s not far off his career mark of 24.9%. In short, Johnson isn’t as good as he was last year, but he’s pretty darn close. Unfortunately he doesn’t offer much beyond a solid batting average. A 1.65 GB/ FB rate limits his power potential and his weak 0.25 BB/K rate means he relies way too much on his BABIP for his fantasy value. Players with similar stat lines: David Freese; Anthony Rendon; Paul Konerko 2011 2012 2013 2014 107 136 142 138 405 528 547 534 32 48 54 49 2011 2012 2013 2014 24.0 25.0 21.2 22.1 4.0 5.9 5.3 5.6 1.52 1.13 1.65 1.54 7 15 12 14 42 76 68 63 23.2 8.0% 25.6 11.9% 27.0 10.9% 22.7 12.7% Sanchez is extremely effective against left-handed pitching, but his value pretty much ends there. If you’re in a deeper or NL-only leagues and wanted to create a true 1B platoon you could pair him up with someone like Garrett Jones, who’s a cheap platoon specialist himself. However, Sanchez cannot hold up on his own in fantasy because there just aren’t enough left-handed pitchers for him to exploit. Players with similar stat lines: Gordon Beckham; David Murphy; Juan Uribe 2 5 0 2 .251 .281 .321 .280 .263 .270 .299 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 159 105 136 146 661 326 320 556 72 30 29 57 19 7 7 12 78 30 36 63 3 1 1 2 .266 .217 .254 .270 .253 .210 .260 .240 .317 .354 .394 .339 -3.83 -0.15 1.29 -0.84 519 216 147 260 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.7 17.2 15.9 16.5 11.2 7.7 13.8 11.7 0.80 0.97 0.89 0.90 20.0 16.8 22.7 21.0 8.9% 6.8% 7.8% 7.6% .287 .245 .282 .297 1.00 -5.54 -4.00 -1.58 139 698 516 291 Justin Morneau | COL | Age: 33 | Rk: 45 (261) Hunter Morris | MIL | Age: 25 | Rk: 48 (297) Position: 1B Position: 1B MORNEAU IS GOING TO COLORADO! Yeah, it’s exciting, but does it add much value to the injury-prone, former MVP? Probably not. We projected him for a 538 PA, which is actually less than he’s had in each of the last 2 years, but I’m not ready to say a full season in Coors equals 25 HR and 90 RBI. The good news is he won’t cost you a pretty penny if you want to wait and see. Better yet, if Morneau gets off to a hot start in April you can sell him for a shinier dime! Or maybe one of those bi-centennial quarters... Players with similar stat lines: Adam Lind; Cody Ross; Welington Castillo 2011 2012 2013 2014 69 134 152 130 288 570 635 538 19 63 62 52 2011 2012 2013 2014 15.3 17.9 17.3 17.3 6.6 8.6 7.9 8.9 0.76 1.13 1.07 1.00 4 19 17 19 30 77 77 61 18.5 3.9% 21.8 12.5% 21.2 9.6% 26.9 14.1% The only 2 players standing between Morris and a full-time role for the Brew Crew are Juan Francisco and Mark Reynolds. Those two names shouldn’t worry you, but what should is that Morris — despite showing great power potential in the minors — stuggles mightily against southpaws. That’s why even if Morris were to luck into a full-time role, the Brewers would still platoon as the youngster acclimates to the majors. He’s a name to have in the back of your mind, but don’t go crazy on draft day. Players with similar stat lines: Jarrod Saltalamacchia; Lonnie Chisenhall; Mike Moustakas 0 1 0 2 .227 .267 .259 .270 .211 .287 .264 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 112 422 51 .257 .294 .290 .293 -5.68 0.09 0.22 -0.86 779 202 196 261 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.7 6.9 1.42 18 67 21.1 20.5% 2 .250 .250 .278 -1.78 297 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 27 Michael Morse | SF | Age: 32 | Rk: 49 (315) Lucas Duda | NYM | Age: 28 | Rk: 52 (340) Position: 1B/OF Position: 1B/OF In terms of fantasy value, there probably wasn’t a worse place for Morse to land than San Francisco. A .280-.290 hitter when everything is going right, Morse finds himself batting 7th in one of the 3 toughest hitter’s parks with some solid outfield competition coming off the bench. It will be interesting to see if Morse, who’s called the trainer’s table his “cot” on occasion, will hold up with a full-time role in the outfield. He’d be much better suited as a DH somewhere in the AL. With the additions of Curtis Granderson and Chris Young in the OF and the late-season resurgence of Ike Davis at 1B, it seems as if Duda has gotten lost in the shuffle. He he’s disappointed for 2 straight seasons, and unless he really dazzles in spring training it will be tough to see where Duda really fits in the 2014 picture. He has decent power (career .178 ISO) and on-base skills (career 11.3 BB%), but he hasn’t been able to harness those skills in a meaningful way. Players with similar stat lines: Lonnie Chisenhall; Hunter Morris; John Mayberry 2011 2012 2013 2014 146 102 88 113 575 430 337 455 73 53 34 48 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.9 22.6 25.8 23.7 6.3 3.7 6.2 6.2 1.21 2.25 1.25 1.10 31 18 13 16 95 62 27 68 19.5 21.2% 20.1 23.4% 19.5 16.0% 18.5 13.6% Players with similar stat lines: Nate Freiman; Kyle Blanks; Josmil Pinto 2 0 0 0 .303 .291 .215 .250 .282 .295 .243 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 100 121 100 94 347 459 384 345 38 43 42 40 .344 .339 .254 .328 4.32 -0.48 -4.50 -2.12 46 231 580 315 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.4 26.1 26.6 26.1 9.5 11.1 14.3 11.9 0.79 0.83 0.66 1.49 10 15 15 13 50 57 33 40 22.5 9.3% 22.5 12.5% 19.8 14.3% 18.2 19.6% 1 1 0 9 .292 .239 .223 .270 .272 .252 .224 .250 .326 .301 .276 .322 -2.02 -2.86 -3.61 -2.64 332 411 484 340 Mark Reynolds | MIL | Age: 30 | Rk: 50 (323) Kyle Blanks | SD | Age: 27 | Rk: 53 (348) Position: 1B/3B Position: 1B/OF Now in Milwaukee, Reynolds probably won’t get a shot at a fulltime job mostly because his 1 skill is slipping away from him. His ISO (.173) dipped under .200 and his slugging percentage (.393) dipped under .400 for the 1st time in his career. We have him projected for 487 PA, which is probably on the high end, but in Milwaukee he can should reach the 20 HR mark once again. We all know where that batting average is going to end up, but if you play in OBP leagues he could add some value there. Power potential doesn’t play in PETCO. Have you heard that before? Blanks could be a 20-25 HR player in almost any other park, but in San Diego I have a hard time expecting more than 15. Given Blanks’ poor plate discipline stats last year — 6.8 BB%, 27.6 K% — I’ll need to see something more before I believe in him. He’s going to find it difficult to accrue PA at 1B as long as Yonder Alonso stays on the field, which means he’ll have to look to the OF for playing time. Players with similar stat lines: Trevor Plouffe; Dan Uggla; Evan Gattis 2011 2012 2013 2014 155 135 135 127 620 538 504 487 84 65 55 59 2011 2012 2013 2014 31.6 29.6 30.6 32.2 12.1 13.6 10.1 10.5 0.82 0.87 0.93 2.19 37 23 21 21 86 69 67 62 13.2 22.7% 20.4 18.1% 18.2 16.9% 21.7 17.0% Players with similar stat lines: Henry Urrutia; Nate Freiman; Raul Ibanez 6 1 3 2 .221 .221 .220 .230 .215 .235 .219 .220 2011 2012 2013 2014 55 4 88 97 190 6 308 387 21 0 31 38 .266 .282 .282 .284 2.05 -1.37 -1.08 -2.22 101 291 273 323 2011 2012 2013 2014 26.8 33.3 27.6 24.5 8.4 16.7 6.8 7.8 0.89 0.50 1.43 1.36 7 0 8 14 26 0 35 45 15.7 13.0% 0.0 0.0% 22.3 12.7% 17.2 16.4% 2 0 1 2 .229 .200 .243 .270 .217 .043 .262 .270 .281 .333 .317 .325 -5.03 -7.79 -4.07 -2.90 686 1199 529 348 John Mayberry | PHI | Age: 30 | Rk: 51 (325) Jordan Pacheco | COL | Age: 28 | Rk: 54 (349) Position: 1B/OF Position: C/1B Philadelphia’s OF is still in flux and Ryan Howard is always an injury risk at 1B, so it’s hard to tell exactly from where Mayberry’s AB will come. We know he’s good enough to earn 400-450 PA with the potential for more, and I’d expect more power than last year’s disappointing 11 HR showing. His 11.3% HR/FB rate was lower than we should expect from a player with Mayberry’s raw strength. He has the upside of 20-22 HR and maybe more if he somehow comes into near-full playing time. In 2012, Pacheco batted .309 across 505 PA -- a 300+ catcher-eligible player with a little speed who plays for the Rockies is pretty much the definition of “sleeper.” Pacheco was targeted heavily last year, but he collapsed. All is not lost, though, and we can’t just forget the skills Pacheco displayed in 2012. He’s not a .239 hitter, crushing line drives 25% of the time, and he still plays in Coors. A super utility pinch hitter, I don’t know where Pacheco’s PA will come from, but he’ll get enough to have some deep league value with his BA. Players with similar stat lines: Jarrod Saltalamacchia; Mike Moustakas; Mike Zunino 2011 2012 2013 2014 104 149 134 132 296 479 384 417 37 53 47 50 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.6 23.2 23.4 21.3 8.8 7.1 7.0 8.2 1.03 1.83 1.16 2.14 15 14 11 17 49 46 39 58 17.8 17.4% 19.9 14.9% 20.5 11.3% 18.9 24.0% Players with similar stat lines: Lorenzo Cain; Jon Jay; Ryan Sweeney 8 1 5 2 .273 .245 .227 .250 .262 .275 .239 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 21 132 95 122 88 505 262 465 5 51 23 44 2 5 1 6 14 54 22 47 0 7 0 2 .286 .309 .239 .280 .307 .300 .288 .280 .293 .296 .273 .273 -1.46 -2.79 -2.97 -2.29 283 405 419 325 2011 2012 2013 2014 10.2 12.1 14.5 13.3 3.4 4.4 3.8 4.7 2.60 1.36 1.89 0.98 27.0 26.4 25.4 20.3 13.3% 3.8% 1.9% 3.6% .301 .344 .278 .315 -6.23 -0.76 -5.82 -2.93 911 252 765 349 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 28 | Baseball Professor Casey McGehee | MIA | Age: 31 | Rk: 55 (352) Mike Olt | CHC | Age: 25 | Rk: 58 (373) Position: 1B Position: 1B McGehee took off for Japan in 2013 and is now back in Miami and slated to start full time at 3B. In his 4 MLB seasons, McGehee stuggled to make solid contact (career 17.3 LD%) and his defense left a lot to be desired. It will be interesting to see just how long he will stay in a full-time role given his lack of value on both the offensive and defensive side. He’s likely not worth your time unless you’re in a deep mixed or NL-only league. Olt has just 40 PA of experience at the major league level, but he still makes for a nice post-hype sleeper. His 2013 season was basically a toss out as he was dealing with vision issues and a concussion. There’s no real spot for him on the Cubs 2014 roster, but if he were to make the club it would be at 3B. He has plenty of power and the patience at the plate to contribute, but he will likely strike out far too often, thus keeping his batting average below average. Players with similar stat lines: Trevor Plouffe; Dan Uggla; Ryan Ludwick 2011 2012 2013 2014 155 114 137 600 352 545 46 36 50 2011 17.3 2012 19.9 2013 2014 18.3 7.5 8.2 8.3 1.48 1.52 1.24 13 9 16 67 41 65 16.2 8.6% 15.5 10.7% 15.4 11.8% Players with similar stat lines: John Buck; Russell Martin; Darin Ruf 0 1 2 .223 .217 .230 .228 .225 .240 2011 2012 2013 2014 16 110 40 424 2 40 .249 .248 .258 -3.21 -4.72 -2.94 447 602 352 2011 2012 32.5 2013 2014 28.8 12.5 11.8 1.25 0.84 0 18 5 55 18.2 0.0% 17.7 17.8% 1 2 .152 .240 .206 .240 .227 .281 -3.29 373 Logan Morrison | SEA | Age: 26 | Rk: 56 (357) Nate Freiman | OAK | Age: 27 | Rk: 59 (387) Position: 1B Position: 1B I initially fell in love with Morrison as a prospect because of his great batting eye, but he’s been unable to capitalize on those skills and spent more time on Twitter and the disabled list than fantasy starting lineups. Despite his 1 year with a .221 ISO, his power has been underwhelming and now that he’s in Seattle I’m not expecting it to get much better. At 26, he’s too young to give up on completely, but my patience is running razor thin. Brandon Moss has put together 2 great seasons from the left side of the plate, but Oakland still needs his right-handed counterpart. Enter Freiman and make sure those doors are big enough for his 6’8, 250-pound frame. There’s no chance the Athletics outright bench Moss, which limits Freiman’s potential playing time, but I love his peripheral stats should he get the chance. In just 162 PA vs. right-handed pitching last year, he slashed .304/.352/.453 with a .149 ISO. Players with similar stat lines: Travis d’Arnaud; Mike Zunino; Russell Martin 2011 2012 2013 2014 123 93 85 125 525 334 333 503 54 30 32 48 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.9 17.4 16.8 17.5 10.3 9.3 11.4 10.9 1.37 1.01 1.49 1.28 23 11 6 14 72 36 36 61 18.0 18.1% 18.4 11.3% 20.3 7.9% 19.8 9.8% Players with similar stat lines: Henry Urrutia; Kyle Blanks; Jonathan Singleton 2 1 0 2 .247 .230 .242 .240 .273 .252 .236 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 .265 .248 .281 .265 -0.39 -4.65 -4.35 -3.00 220 592 564 357 2011 2012 2013 14.9 2014 14.1 80 95 208 304 10 37 6.7 9.2 0.98 1.30 4 12 24 41 23.6 6.5% 20.4 15.7% 0 2 .274 .270 .246 .270 .306 .278 -5.42 -3.48 694 387 Darin Ruf | PHI | Age: 27 | Rk: 57 (361) Jesus Guzman | HOU | Age: 30 | Rk: 60 (411) Position: 1B/OF Position: 1B/OF Like John Mayberry, Ruf is part of a clustered 1B/OF picture in Philadelphia. He has more severe strikeout problems (31.2 K% in 330 career PA) and is a terrible defensive player, which will limit his playing time, but there’s a solid chance he earns a platoon situation with the Phillies. Considering that Ruf ’s .231 ISO vs. right-handed pitching was significantly better than his .159 ISO vs. left-handed pitching there’s a real chance to harness his skills there. Guzman is slated to start the season as a role player for the Houston Astros. Yes, you heard that right. If you are drafting him in a mixed league that is any shallower than 16 teams then you have clearly just given up. His strikeout rate has increased every season in the majors, which just shows that he isn’t figuring it out. Pair that inability to hit with a lack of playing time and you have yourself a pretty crappy option for fantasy. Players with similar stat lines: Andrew Lambo; Dayan Viciedo; Oscar Taveras 2011 2012 2013 2014 12 73 85 2011 2012 32.4 2013 31.1 2014 29.6 37 293 361 4 36 38 5.4 11.3 10.5 0.90 1.00 1.03 3 14 15 10 30 56 17.4 30.0% 18.5 21.2% 19.8 19.5% Players with similar stat lines: Ryan Flaherty; Ryan Raburn; Hank Conger 0 0 2 .333 .247 .250 .257 .242 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 76 120 126 92 271 321 318 350 33 32 33 42 .400 .324 .307 -6.75 -3.39 -3.03 1067 466 361 2011 2012 2013 2014 15.9 22.1 24.8 25.4 8.1 9.0 8.5 8.0 1.16 1.06 1.16 2.28 5 9 9 11 44 48 35 46 22.0 6.8% 17.9 10.3% 21.5 11.8% 19.1 20.5% 9 3 3 2 .312 .247 .226 .250 .254 .236 .242 .250 .360 .297 .280 .298 -1.99 -3.69 -4.05 -3.88 329 492 525 411 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 2013: Second Base Year in Review Baseball Professor | 29 Have you every asked yourself, “I wonder if Player X is better suited for a head-to-head league or roto league?” Well, today’s your lucky day! Behold the H2H vs. Roto quadrant, where you can quickly identify which league your favorite player stands out in. The criteria is simple: Consistent players on a weekly basis are more valuable in H2H leagues due to their weekly nature while roto leagues lend themselves to a more patient approach. However, in roto leagues you like to have players who contribute stats across the board, but you don’t care when they come. We rated some of last year’s best Second Basemen on both consistency and statistical balance based on their 2013 performance (small sample size alert!) and plopped them on a chart. Take a look! Better in H2H More consistency Great Player Omar Infante Dustin Pedroia Martin Prado Ian Kinsler Ben Zobrist Daniel Murphy Robinson Cano Jed Lowrie Brandon Phillips Less balance Matt Carpenter More balance Brian Dozier Jose Altuve Chase Utley Jason Kipnis Bad Player Howie Kendrick Less consistency Better in Roto @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 30 | Baseball Professor Who's HR/FB Rate Over- or UnderPerformed Their Average FB Distance? 30.0% 25.0% HR/FB 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 240 250 260 270 280 290 Average FB Distance 300 310 320 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 31 If you find yourself wondering whether a certain player deserved to hit as high (or low) as he did last year, rather than look at his BABIP and try to decipher whether he was lucky or unlucky just reference the chart below. Our xBA calculation takes everything you need to know into account and spits out what each hitter should have hit. The chart is easy to read: If your player lands above the line then he was unlucky (lower BA than xBA), but if he’s below the line then he was lucky and could be due for regression. It’s as easy as that! BA vs. Expected BA, 2013 Season .360 Unlucky .340 .320 Expected Batting Average .300 .280 .260 .240 .220 Lucky .200 .200 .220 .240 .260 .280 .300 .320 .340 .360 Batting Average @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 32 | Baseball Professor Second Base 2014 Preview Jake Devereaux’s Dynasty / Keeper League Watch List Rk Prospect Team Age 1 Arismendy Alcantara CHC 22 2 Kolten Wong STL 23 3 Mookie Betts BOS 21 4 Rougned Odor TEX 20 5 Tommy La Stella ATL 25 ETA Comments With Javier Baez taking reps at 2B and 3B this spring it is still very much in question where Late 2014 Alcantra may play long term. One thing is for sure he will be a threat to go 20/20 in the middle infield with a very respectable average. The Cubs system is amazing Where do the Cardinals keep getting these guys? Wong won’t be an all-star but he is a Early 2014 sure thing to produce at a top 10 level at the position with a strong average and 15HR 10+ SB potential. Eno Sarris’s love of the patient young infield prospect is well documented and with good reason. Betts has a great approach at the plate perfectly honed for what the Red Sox 2015 want out of their young guys and he has a ton of speed to boot. This year could be a big one for him. With Profar and Andrus already up with the big club the biggest question for Odor is 2015 where his is going to play. Odor is solid but not fantastic at any one discipline he also has to compete with Luis Sardinas in his own system. Though never touted as a top prospect opportunity is knocking for La Stella. He doesn’t Mid-2014 have much power but he shows great BB% and could be a great source of batting average and runs right away not too dissimilar to Matt Carpenter. Top 40 Rankings / Auction ($) Values Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Player Name Robinson Cano Dustin Pedroia Jason Kipnis Daniel Murphy Aaron Hill Ben Zobrist Jose Altuve Matt Carpenter Ian Kinsler Chase Utley Brandon Phillips Martin Prado Brian Dozier Brett Lawrie Jurickson Profar $ Value $24 $22 $21 $15 $15 $12 $12 $12 $9 $9 $9 $8 $7 $7 $3 Rank 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Player Name Brad Miller Jedd Gyorko Nick Franklin Omar Infante Josh Rutledge Jed Lowrie Alexander Guerrero Neil Walker Howie Kendrick Kolten Wong Anthony Rendon Dustin Ackley Kelly Johnson Jordy Mercer Rafael Furcal $ Value $3 $2 $1 $1 $1 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 A Closer Look...Second Base Superlatives Superlative Biggest Risk Safest Bet Mid-Round Sleeper Late-Round Sleeper Don't Believe the Hype Post-Hype Sleeper Best Value Pick Player You Always Own Player You Never Own Round I'll Draft 2B Better in Points Leagues Better in Roto Leagues Better in H2H Leagues Better in Keeper Leagues Matt Commins Ian Kinsler Jason Kipnis Aaron Hill Omar Infante Ben Zobrist Neil Walker Aaron Hill Aaron Hill Ian Kinsler 9th Matt Carpenter Daniel Murphy Chase Utley Jurickson Profar Eric Broutman Jason Kipnis Robinson Cano Chase Utley Jurikson Profar Brett Lawrie Jurikson Profar Robinson Cano Howie Kendrick Brett Lawrie 1st-4th Aaron Hill Ian Kinsler Daniel Murphy Jedd Gyorko Paul Beck Brandon Phillips Howie Kendrick Aaron Hill Rickie Weeks Jose Altuve Anthony Rendon Jurickson Profar Dustin Ackley Brandon Phillips 8th-12th Ian Kinsler Brian Dozier Jason Kipnis Jurickson Profar Adam Nodiff Jake Devereaux Ian Kinsler Ian Kinsler Robinson Cano Robinson Cano Jed Lowrie Aaron Hill Nick Franklin Anthony Rendon Anthony Rendon Alexander Guerrero Jedd Gyorko Jurickson Profar Martin Prado Daniel Murphy Ben Zobrist Robinson Cano Aaron Hill Ian Kinsler 1st-2nd 1st Brandon Phillips Jedd Gyorko Brian Dozier Robinson Cano Jason Kipnis Dustin Pedroia Alexander Guerrero Jurickson Profar @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Robinson Cano | SEA | Age: 31 | Rk: 1 (20) Daniel Murphy | NYM | Age: 29 | Rk: 4 (49) Position: 2B Position: 1B/2B Cano may still be the top-ranked 2B, but the gap closed considerably when he moved to Seattle. In New York he would’ve been a top 6-10 player overall, but now finds himself in the 18-20 range. Cano has never been a fly ball hitter (career 31.0%), but in his last 2 years he’s failed to reach 30%, which probably won’t translate well when he moves away from that short right field porch. The fact that he may lose a couple HR and score fewer R in an inferior lineup means no top 10 season for Cano. Players with similar stat lines: Allen Craig; Troy Tulowitzki; Freddie Freeman 2011 2012 2013 2014 159 161 160 155 681 697 681 674 104 105 81 84 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.1 13.8 12.5 12.3 5.6 8.8 9.5 10.5 1.51 1.89 1.49 1.61 28 33 27 24 118 94 107 92 22.3 17.0% 25.6 24.1% 26.0 17.3% 24.9 17.6% Sometimes you don’t have to be an uber-talented player to put up a great fantasy season and in 2013 Murphy showed exactly that. His above-average skills met plenty of opportunity as he amassed a career-high 697 PA with the majority of them coming in the 2nd spot in the order. Murphy actually posted worse walk and strikeout rates last year, but he stole 23 bases out of nowhere (previous career high was 10. Given his 89% success rate we should expect him to continue running. Players with similar stat lines: Dustin Pedroia; Shane Victorino; Shin-Soo Choo 8 3 7 4 .302 .313 .314 .300 .308 .355 .345 .340 .316 .326 .327 .315 6.99 6.43 6.72 5.28 17 15 11 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 109 156 161 160 423 612 697 685 49 62 92 86 6 6 13 14 49 65 78 71 5 10 23 19 .320 .291 .286 .300 .288 .312 .262 .290 2011 9.9 2012 13.4 2013 13.6 2014 13.4 5.7 5.9 4.6 5.4 1.51 2.03 1.17 1.40 21.9 24.3 21.3 19.8 5.5% 4.9% 6.3% 7.8% .345 .329 .315 .324 -0.65 0.13 4.75 4.08 238 200 39 49 Dustin Pedroia | BOS | Age: 30 | Rk: 2 (23) Aaron Hill | ARI | Age: 32 | Rk: 5 (56) Position: 2B Position: 2B Pedroia played through a torn UCL in his thumb for most of 2013 and the effects can be seen in his power output. His 9 HR were his lowest since his rookie year and it was thanks to both his fly ball rate dropping from 34.6% to 27.9% and HR/ FB rate dropping from 8.5% to 5.6%. After offseason surgery to fix the issue, Pedroia should be 100% healthy, meaning we can expect his power numbers to bounce back to normal levels. Hill’s 9-year career has been as unpredictable as New England weather. He’s been ranked anywhere from the 26th-best to 2ndbest 2B over just the last 3 seasons. However, what we can tell is that ever since he’s moved to Arizona he’s been a .290-.300 hitter thanks to consistent line drive rates, which have kept his BABIP above .300. If he can stay healthy, his on-base skills should allow him to approach 90 R and whether he hits 20 HR or 30 HR is up to whatever the fantasy gods have in store for this 32-year-old. Players with similar stat lines: Daniel Murphy; Eric Hosmer; David Wright 2011 2012 2013 2014 Players with similar stat lines: Josh Donaldson; Kyle Seager; Eric Hosmer 159 141 160 157 731 623 724 716 102 81 91 90 21 15 9 16 91 65 84 85 26 20 17 17 .307 .290 .301 .290 .293 .290 .303 .300 2011 2012 2013 2014 137 156 87 141 571 668 362 643 61 93 45 91 2011 11.6 2012 9.6 2013 10.4 2014 11.2 11.8 7.7 10.1 10.5 1.43 1.32 1.81 1.54 19.1 19.8 21.6 20.4 11.4% 8.5% 5.6% 9.5% .325 .300 .326 .313 7.13 2.78 4.71 5.08 15 89 41 23 2011 2012 2013 2014 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.8 6.1 7.8 8.0 7.8 0.87 0.77 0.97 0.88 8 26 11 21 61 85 41 68 21.2 4.2% 21.1 11.2% 21.8 9.9% 21.3 10.6% 21 14 1 8 .246 .302 .291 .290 .250 .288 .277 .270 .268 .317 .312 .312 -0.41 5.27 -1.73 3.74 222 24 312 56 Jason Kipnis | CLE | Age: 27 | Rk: 3 (42) Ben Zobrist | TB | Age: 33 | Rk: 6 (65) Position: 2B Position: 2B/SS Kipnis’ power/speed combination at 2B is unmatched as he’s amassed more HR+SB (92) over the last 2 years than any other second baseman. For reference, Jose Altuve was 2nd with 80. He’s slated to bat 3rd for the Indians, which should help him post solid R and RBI numbers. While he struggled a bit in the 2nd half in 2013, the biggest effect that should have is bringing his cost down in drafts this spring. Zobrist just barely reached the 10 GS mark (11) to gain the much-vaunted SS eligibility in almost every league, and that’s a big deal as there’s no doubt that his stat line is more valuable as a middle infielder. He’s not a bad OF option as well, but in 2013 he struggled in the power department, specifically from the right side of the plate. His .083 ISO was in 2013 was 100 points lower than his .183 ISO in 2012. If he can fix whatever was ailing him from that side then we should see a nice rebound in 2014. Players with similar stat lines: Alex Rios; Desmond Jennings; Alex Gordon 2011 2012 2013 2014 36 152 149 153 150 672 658 673 24 86 86 83 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.7 16.2 21.7 19.5 7.3 10.0 11.6 10.7 1.32 1.56 1.34 1.40 7 14 17 18 19 76 84 84 21.0 20.6% 22.9 9.7% 24.7 12.4% 23.7 12.7% Players with similar stat lines: Justin Upton; Kyle Seager; Jason Heyward 5 31 30 27 .272 .257 .284 .270 .272 .282 .281 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 156 157 157 154 674 668 698 680 99 88 77 93 .313 .291 .345 .313 -4.35 2.97 5.69 4.33 574 83 24 42 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.0 15.4 13.0 12.9 11.4 14.5 10.3 11.8 1.30 1.24 1.14 1.30 20 20 12 21 91 74 71 77 19.6 12.4% 21.8 12.5% 19.7 6.1% 18.7 12.4% 19 14 11 11 .269 .270 .275 .270 .254 .289 .253 .260 .310 .296 .303 .285 4.33 2.57 1.96 3.35 45 97 117 65 34 | Baseball Professor Jose Altuve | HOU | Age: 24 | Rk: 7 (68) Chase Utley | PHI | Age: 35 | Rk: 10 (103) Position: 2B Position: 2B For the stats Altuve can control (BA, HR, SB) we know what he will bring to the table. The 3rd-year vet will hit .285ish with not enough HR to matter, and 30+ SB. The one real wildcard is his runs scored as the below average Astros offense can really suppress the speedster’s impact there. In 2013, Altuve had 42 more PA yet scored 16 fewer R thanks to his OBP falling from .340 to .316. If Altuve can increase his on-base skills and score more R maybe he keeps climbing up the 2B ranks. Players with similar stat lines: Brett Gardner; Elvis Andrus; Jean Segura In 2013, Utley managed to place in the top 10 in each of the 5x5 categories despite just 531 PA. Even better was his average flyball distance (287.6 feet), which seemed to return to his pre-knee injury days. Unfortunately for him, the Phillies offense has not returned to those glory days and Utley finds himself in the middle of a hodge-podge of offensive “talent.” At 35, he’s not getting any younger, but while he’ll never return to his elite days, he’s still a viable 2B option who is probably passed on too many times on draft day. Players with similar stat lines: Avisail Garcia; Michael Cuddyer; Chase Headley 2011 2012 2013 2014 57 147 152 154 234 630 672 688 26 80 64 85 2 7 5 8 12 37 52 55 7 33 35 36 .276 .290 .283 .280 .264 .304 .290 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 103 83 131 133 454 362 531 534 54 48 73 72 2011 2012 2013 2014 12.4 11.7 12.6 12.4 2.1 6.3 4.8 6.7 1.69 1.94 1.74 1.19 20.4 20.2 22.6 16.4 3.6% 5.1% 3.2% 3.9% .309 .321 .316 .310 -4.72 2.06 2.51 3.26 630 112 92 68 2011 2012 2013 2014 10.4 11.9 14.9 14.6 8.6 11.9 8.5 9.9 0.89 1.17 0.89 0.81 11 11 18 17 44 45 69 80 12.7 6.7% 21.4 11.6% 19.5 10.6% 18.3 10.2% 14 11 8 11 .259 .256 .284 .280 .203 .294 .259 .250 .269 .261 .305 .294 -1.14 -1.98 2.25 2.06 262 339 102 103 Matt Carpenter | STL | Age: 28 | Rk: 8 (69) Brandon Phillips | CIN | Age: 33 | Rk: 11 (107) Position: 2B/3B Position: 2B Carpenter wasn’t a known commodity to begin the 2013 season, but that quickly changed as he rode a .318 BA and 126 R to a #2 ranking among all second basemen. If you were good at reading between the lines you would realize his major flaw from that statement. How did he only rank 2nd? Because he only contributed 11 HR and 3 SB. Carpenter is a doubles-hitting machine, but if he’s not scoring 100+ R with a .300+ BA it’s likely he’ll fall far short of this ranking. You’ve been warned. Players with similar stat lines: Nick Markakis; Aaron Hill; Yadier Molina At 33, Phillips posted his first 100 RBI season thanks to 2 things. First, Shin-Soo Choo and his .423 OBP sat at the top of that lineup for a full season. Second, Phillips managed a .338 BA with RISP vs. a .233 BA in all other situations. While we’d like to believe that Phillips is a “clutch” hitter, that’s just not something we’d expect him to replicate for 2014. Phillips also saw his stolen bases drop considerably, which is understandable as few other hitters have amassed the playing time he has over the last decade. Players with similar stat lines: Manny Machado; Xander Bogaerts; Chase Utley 2011 2012 2013 2014 7 114 157 156 19 340 717 701 0 44 126 98 0 6 11 12 0 46 78 67 0 1 3 5 .067 .294 .318 .300 .067 .253 .324 .300 2011 2012 2013 2014 150 147 151 148 675 623 666 643 94 86 80 81 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.1 18.5 13.7 14.1 21.1 10.0 10.0 10.6 0.83 1.12 1.14 1.11 0.0 23.8 27.3 22.3 0.0% 7.0% 6.1% 6.4% .091 .346 .359 .333 -2.69 5.72 3.25 397 23 69 2011 2012 2013 2014 12.6 12.7 14.7 14.0 6.5 4.5 5.9 6.4 1.30 1.46 1.34 1.68 18 18 18 16 82 77 103 83 19.8 9.7% 20.6 11.0% 19.2 10.1% 21.0 11.2% 14 15 5 6 .300 .281 .261 .270 .286 .292 .265 .280 .322 .298 .281 .295 4.57 2.93 2.80 1.93 39 85 86 107 Ian Kinsler | DET | Age: 32 | Rk: 9 (78) Martin Prado | ARI | Age: 30 | Rk: 12 (117) Position: 2B Position: 2B/3B/OF Kinsler’s move from Texas to Detroit will not be a beneficial one. Add in the fact that he’s already on the decline and the results may not be pretty. In addition to the worse ballpark, Kinsler’s SB totals and walk rates have slipped recently. He’s clearly a 2nd tier 2B, and probably even in the 2nd tier or 2nd tier players. He’ll still be leading off for the Tigers and while his abilities are on the decline, if he can get on base 34% of the time he should surpass 90 R. Prado might be one of the more consistent players in baseball over the last 4 years. Despite a couple of blips on the radar you can count on a .280-.290 BA, 10-15 HR, 140+ R+RBI, and fewer than 5 SB. He’s a high-contact hitter who likes to keep the ball near the ground (liners and grounders), which helps keep his batting average up. Yes, this is boring analysis for a boring player, but he’s solid across the board and eligible at mulitiple positions, which makes him fairly valuable. Players with similar stat lines: Dexter Fowler; Shane Victorino; Desmond Jennings 2011 2012 2013 2014 155 157 136 143 723 731 614 667 121 105 85 94 32 19 13 14 77 72 72 68 30 21 15 22 .255 .256 .277 .270 .278 .253 .282 .270 2011 9.8 2012 12.3 2013 9.6 2014 10.8 12.3 8.2 8.3 8.7 0.75 0.89 0.94 0.87 17.6 20.1 23.7 20.8 12.5% 7.9% 6.7% 6.5% .243 .270 .288 .282 6.26 3.15 2.88 2.87 21 78 80 78 Players with similar stat lines: Jason Castro; Pablo Sandoval; Yadier Molina 2011 2012 2013 2014 129 156 155 152 590 690 664 629 66 81 70 72 13 10 14 14 57 70 82 77 4 17 3 4 .260 .301 .282 .290 .251 .306 .298 .290 2011 8.8 2012 10.0 2013 8.0 2014 9.2 5.8 8.4 7.1 7.6 1.47 1.65 1.58 1.21 14.6 22.8 21.9 24.1 7.5% 6.2% 8.2% 8.1% .266 .322 .288 .300 -0.84 2.81 1.80 1.71 245 88 127 117 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 35 Brian Dozier | MIN | Age: 27 | Rk: 13 (126) Brad Miller | SEA | Age: 24 | Rk: 16 (176) Position: 2B Position: 2B/SS Dozier should be on everyone’s sleeper list after his breakout 2013 campaign. However, FantasyPros “experts” have him ranked 20th-best on average, which seems extremely low. From June on, Dozier slashed .255/.331/.458 with 16 HR and 8 SB. Dozier’s HR outburst wasn’t fueled by a ridiculous HR/FB rate (9.9%), but instead by a lot of flyballs hit (41.3 FB%). With a bit more batted ball luck, there’s no reason to believe that Dozier can’t turn in a .270 BA. Players with similar stat lines: Christian Yelich; Shane Victorino; Dexter Fowler 2011 2012 2013 2014 84 147 147 340 623 664 33 72 80 2011 2012 17.1 2013 19.3 2014 16.6 4.7 8.2 8.3 1.09 0.92 1.29 6 18 16 33 66 62 20.6 6.3% 20.8 9.9% 23.5 10.0% Miller has a lot of bad organizational history to overcome, but I actually think he’s going to do it. With great plate discipline and enough power/speed, all that’s left to do is see whether he can finally reach that .270, 15 HR, 15 SB level that we’ve been waiting for Dustin Ackley to reach (Kyle Seager’s there). There aren’t many shorstops, especially at this point in the rankings, who can contribute positively across all 5 fantasy categories like Miller can. Players with similar stat lines: Jurickson Profar; Austin Jackson; Manny Machado 9 14 16 .234 .244 .270 .253 .261 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 76 152 335 646 41 77 8 13 36 57 5 12 .265 .270 .261 .280 .267 .278 .301 -4.28 1.09 1.59 551 156 126 2011 2012 2013 15.5 2014 16.3 7.2 9.0 1.42 1.03 21.6 21.6 9.9% 7.6% .294 .307 -2.70 0.71 394 176 Brett Lawrie | TOR | Age: 24 | Rk: 14 (138) Jedd Gyorko | SD | Age: 25 | Rk: 17 (182) Position: 2B/3B Position: 2B/3B Despite being just 24 years old, Lawrie has been marked with “Bust” as he’s failed to live up to the tremendous hype he generated after his successful cup of coffee in 2011. Lawrie has a very good contact rate along with league average power, however he hasn’t harnessed those skills into a true breakout campaign just yet. Still, at 24 Lawrie has time to develop into a future All-Star as not all players get it right off the bat. Let’s give the youngster some time to develop. Gyorko not only managed to hit 23 HR last year, but he did so while both playing in San Diego and missing 1 1/2 months with a groin injury. Add in the fact that 15 of his 23 HR came after the injury and we’re looking at some impressive power, especially from someone who boasts 2B eligibility. He needs to work on his plate discipline as his 0.27 BB/K leaves a lot to be desired, but his rookie season definitely could have gone worse. Players with similar stat lines: Avisail Garcia; Asdrubal Cabrera; Chase Utley 2011 2012 2013 2014 43 125 107 138 171 536 442 556 26 73 41 67 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.1 16.0 15.4 14.9 9.4 6.2 6.8 7.7 0.85 1.69 1.42 3.18 9 11 11 16 25 48 46 75 16.9 17.0% 20.0 9.0% 17.4 9.6% 19.4 21.1% Players with similar stat lines: Matt Wieters; Jason Kubel; J.J. Hardy 7 13 9 14 .293 .273 .254 .270 .264 .279 .261 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 125 146 525 604 62 70 .318 .311 .280 .291 -3.38 -0.06 -1.88 1.38 465 210 333 138 2011 2012 2013 23.4 2014 20.2 6.3 8.3 0.94 1.31 23 25 63 76 22.5 15.9% 21.3 18.4% 1 1 .249 .260 .280 .260 .287 .279 0.09 0.57 203 182 Jurickson Profar | TEX | Age: 21 | Rk: 15 (165) Nick Franklin | SEA | Age: 23 | Rk: 18 (188) Position: 2B/3B/SS Position: 2B So Profar was just a tad outdone by Mike Trout in their age21 seasons. Does that make Profar a bust? His 2013 season was disappointing, but we’re talking about a player who has performed well at every level despite being young for the group. It may be another year or 2 before we truly see Profar blossom into a star because he is still so young, but he can definitely bring value just because of his power/ speed combo along with his coveted position eligibility. Players with similar stat lines: Alejandro De Aza; Josh Rutledge; Brad Miller 2011 2012 2013 2014 9 85 147 17 324 556 2 30 74 2011 2012 23.5 2013 19.4 2014 18.0 0.0 8.0 9.4 1.40 1.18 1.63 1 6 13 2 26 53 7.7 20.0% 23.4 7.7% 21.4 11.4% Robinson Cano‘s signing relegates Franklin to AAA, but odds are good that the Mariners will shop him since they really have nowhere to put the upcoming infielder. Franklin struggled with strikeouts (27.4%) and really fell off in the 2nd half (.190/.280/.333), so there are certainly plenty of question marks surrounding his 2014 season. Our projection hinges on our expectation that Seattle trades him with Cano signed at second base, Kyle Seager entrenched at third base, and Miller (hopefully) succeeding at shortstop. Players with similar stat lines: Corey Dickerson; Asdrubal Cabrera; Junior Lake 0 2 17 .176 .234 .280 .214 .261 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 102 138 412 534 38 53 .167 .280 .315 -7.61 -4.82 0.94 1176 629 165 2011 2012 2013 27.4 2014 22.5 10.2 10.7 0.84 1.24 12 16 45 66 24.3 11.4% 21.0 13.3% 6 13 .225 .280 .239 .280 .290 .326 -3.05 0.39 430 188 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 36 | Baseball Professor Omar Infante | KC | Age: 32 | Rk: 19 (192) Neil Walker | PIT | Age: 28 | Rk: 22 (202) Position: 2B Position: 2B Back-to-back double-digit HR seasons? Let’s make it 3! He’s also slated to bat 2nd for the Royals, which is a pretty nice situation for a high-contact player with the ability to hit .300 (and potentially score 90 R). Yes, I’m aware that we projected Infante for just 75 and he’s never scored more than 69, but why can’t Infante really surprise? Walker has a couple of skills that make him valuable in deeper leagues but not worth your while in a standard format. In his 4 pro seasons, Walker has eclipsed 12 HR in each, which isn’t quite Dan Uggla level, but it’s also nothing to sneeze at either. In addition, his career .340 OBP is better than the league average. He’s not an exciting player to own as he possesses very limited upside in all 5 categories, but in the right format he can bring value to your squad. Players with similar stat lines: Derek Jeter; Daniel Nava; Melky Cabrera 2011 2012 2013 2014 Players with similar stat lines: Cody Asche; Carlos Quentin; Jhonny Peralta 148 149 118 142 640 588 476 625 55 69 54 75 7 12 10 10 49 53 51 57 4 17 5 5 .276 .274 .318 .290 .288 .282 .294 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 159 129 133 139 662 530 551 590 76 62 62 65 2011 10.5 2012 11.1 2013 9.2 2014 9.6 5.3 3.6 4.2 4.2 1.19 1.04 1.01 1.55 21.8 20.1 23.6 19.2 3.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.0% .298 .291 .333 .303 -1.51 0.50 0.49 0.30 288 183 180 192 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.9 19.6 15.4 14.4 8.2 8.9 9.1 8.5 1.26 1.26 1.00 1.14 12 14 16 17 83 69 53 72 21.2 7.0% 24.0 11.2% 23.0 10.6% 22.8 11.1% 9 7 1 5 .273 .280 .251 .260 .258 .276 .276 .270 .315 .326 .274 .282 1.53 0.25 -1.06 0.12 123 195 270 202 Josh Rutledge | COL | Age: 25 | Rk: 20 (193) Howie Kendrick | LAA | Age: 30 | Rk: 23 (205) Position: 2B/SS Position: 2B Rutledge is stuck in the black hole of MLB lineup slots: batting 8th for an NL team (in front of the pitcher). Generally that means he’ll be pitched around, and it’ll severely limit his R and RBI numbers. Despite playing in Coors, Rutledge doesn’t have a ton of power potential, but he does have enough speed to top 15 steals. With some luck he could combine for 30 HR+SB, and he has the ability to bat at least .270. There’s a lot of “ifs” and a lot of potential with Rutledge, who has just 605 career PA. Players with similar stat lines: Kolten Wong; Jurickson Profar; Alejandro De Aza 2011 2012 2013 2014 73 88 141 291 314 467 37 45 68 2011 2012 18.6 2013 19.7 2014 18.2 3.1 7.0 6.6 1.59 1.51 1.12 8 7 11 37 19 48 20.1 11.6% 18.5 9.7% 20.6 8.7% I find Kendrick to be very frustrating, and I don’t target him in my fantasy leagues. He always seems to slump badly, and he’s had some difficulty staying healthy in his career. Kendrick has become a low-teens HR player who did have 3 straight 14 SB seasons before falling to just 6 last year. He has enough potential and annual fluctuation to end up with a .285 BA, 85 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, and 15 SB should things go very well. Players with similar stat lines: Robbie Grossman; Junior Lake; Chris Owings 7 12 18 .274 .235 .280 .283 .266 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 140 147 122 133 583 594 513 550 86 57 55 60 .315 .276 .319 -3.07 -3.27 0.27 425 452 193 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.4 19.4 17.3 18.2 5.7 4.9 4.5 5.3 1.94 2.81 2.41 2.85 18 8 13 10 63 67 54 60 21.9 16.5% 20.6 8.9% 27.4 15.7% 15.6 11.4% 14 14 6 13 .285 .287 .297 .280 .312 .272 .341 .310 .338 .347 .340 .330 2.66 0.37 0.48 0.09 78 190 181 205 Alexander Guerrero | LAD | Age: 27 | Rk: 21 (200) Kolten Wong | STL | Age: 23 | Rk: 24 (206) Position: 2B Position: 2B Better known as “the other Cuban,” Guerrero was reportedly spotted this winter signing in Jose Abreu’s shadow. While his slash line in Cuba wasn’t as stellar as Abreu’s it was still pretty good -- .310/.400/.499. Just don’t get too carried away. There’s a lot of risk if you’re drafting him based on his Cuban numbers and while he does have some nice upside, the scouts claim he has iffy plate discipline and is a strictly pull hitter. It’s likely he will get exposed in his 1st year so draft at your own risk. The Cardinals like Wong enough to ship Freese out of of town, but it remains to be seen how valuable a full season of Wong would be. He posted strong numbers in the minor leagues before an unsuccessful call-up last August/September (and a memorable World Series baserunning gaffe). He doesn’t really boast a lot in terms of power and his counting stats will suffer as he is likely to live near the bottom of the Cardinals lineup, but he can provide a solid average and 20+ SB. Players with similar stat lines: Andre Ethier; Yan Gomes; Nolan Arenado 2011 2012 2013 2014 127 539 67 2011 2012 2013 2014 15.2 9.6 1.46 18 62 21.6 14.7% Players with similar stat lines: Josh Rutledge; Carl Crawford; Angel Pagan 2 .280 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 122 62 491 6 66 0 8 0 48 3 18 .153 .280 .242 .290 .295 0.15 200 2011 2012 2013 19.4 2014 14.1 4.8 6.5 2.80 1.06 17.4 20.5 0.0% 5.4% .191 .316 0.09 206 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 37 Jed Lowrie | OAK | Age: 30 | Rk: 25 (212) Kelly Johnson | NYY | Age: 32 | Rk: 28 (270) Position: 2B/SS Position: 2B/3B/OF Lowrie has a lengthy injury history yet somehow stayed on the field for 154 games last year. I’m not saying that was completely fluky and that Lowrie can’t put up another 150 game season, but I am saying that I certainly won’t be gambling on Lowrie doing it again. I’ll let someone else take that risk as he’ll likely go a lot earlier than this rankings suggests he should. If you do take a chance on him as your starting shortstop, then make sure you have a viable backup plan. Johnson is a low-average player who now has the starting 3B job in light of Alex Rodriguez’s year-long ban. He’s hit no fewer than 16 HR in any of the past 4 years, which is encouraging if you play him at a power-starved 2B position, but Johnson’s also hit higher than .235 just once in the last five years (.284 in 2010). The extra playing time will be nice and Johnson provides some pop for a middle infielder, but don’t expect him to contribute much else. Players with similar stat lines: Daniel Nava; Anthony Rendon; David Freese 2011 2012 2013 2014 88 97 154 138 341 387 662 525 40 43 80 68 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.6 16.8 13.7 16.4 6.7 11.1 7.6 8.4 0.67 0.57 0.77 0.68 6 16 15 12 36 42 75 66 17.6 4.8% 19.3 11.3% 23.4 6.8% 21.3 6.7% Players with similar stat lines: Matt Joyce; Marcell Ozuna; Josh Reddick 1 2 1 1 .252 .244 .290 .280 .220 .257 .268 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 147 142 118 138 613 581 407 501 75 61 41 68 .289 .257 .319 .319 -3.82 -3.01 2.25 -0.01 518 422 103 212 2011 2012 2013 2014 26.6 27.4 24.3 24.4 9.8 10.7 8.6 9.2 0.97 1.34 0.84 1.67 21 16 16 19 58 55 52 58 20.4 13.8% 21.0 13.7% 15.2 12.9% 5.9 17.4% 16 14 7 8 .222 .225 .235 .240 .248 .232 .204 .230 .277 .292 .276 .282 -0.16 -1.55 -1.80 -1.10 211 303 322 270 Anthony Rendon | WAS | Age: 24 | Rk: 26 (216) Jordy Mercer | PIT | Age: 27 | Rk: 29 (285) Position: 2B/3B Position: 2B/SS While I love his walk rate, he doesn’t seem to have a ton of category juice (HR and SB) at this point in his career. Danny Espinosa, on the other hand, does, and it wasn’t long ago that Espinosa had positive value. No, I don’t think Rendon will lose the Nationals’ 2B job to Espinosa, but he could lose enough playing time to see it severely impact his already depressed fantasy value. Long-term I’m definitely more bullish, but in the short term I have my reservations. Mercer took over Pittsburgh’s starting SS job late last season, but he’ll still have 2B eligibility in almost all formats after starting 20 games there in 2013. At 6’3, 205 lbs, Mercer has a pretty large frame that could fill out over the next few years, so a 15-20 HR season isn’t entirely out of the question. If he can drop his strikeout rate to 14-15%, he’ll look much more attractive, but I fully endorse Mercer as a “Name to Know” for 2014. Players with similar stat lines: Yan Gomes; Jed Lowrie; Daniel Nava 2011 2012 2013 2014 98 145 394 525 40 63 2011 2012 2013 17.5 2014 16.6 7.9 9.5 1.20 1.20 7 15 35 60 25.5 7.2% 25.5 12.3% Players with similar stat lines: Derek Jeter; Marco Scutaro; Daniel Nava 1 2 .265 .280 .278 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 42 103 137 68 365 576 7 33 68 1 8 10 5 27 37 0 3 2 .210 .285 .280 .231 .300 .290 .307 .314 -3.28 -0.11 453 216 2011 2012 20.6 2013 17.0 2014 15.6 5.9 6.0 7.1 1.53 1.54 0.99 22.4 22.8 23.1 6.7% 9.9% 6.2% .250 .330 .321 -7.42 -3.12 -1.45 1140 435 285 Dustin Ackley | SEA | Age: 26 | Rk: 27 (252) Rafael Furcal | MIA | Age: 36 | Rk: 30 (287) Position: 2B/OF Position: 2B/SS Ackley is currently projected to bat leadoff for the Mariners and that’s really his only saving grace. Should things break right for him in 2014, he has the potential to bat .270 with double-digit HR and SB, and that could mean 80 R, but the further he drops in the order, the harder it will be for him to rack up enough relevant couting stats. It’s time to stop waiting for this former top prospect to finally put it together. Analyzing Furcal is easy because you don’t even have to get into his declining production at the plate. He can’t stay healthy! Let’s ignore the fact that he missed all of 2013 after Tommy John surgery, but he also missed 41 games in 2012, 75 games in 2011, and 65 games in 2010. Even if he were Mike Trout you wouldn’t be drafting him with that spotty of an injury history. And let me tell you something, Furcal ain’t nothing like Trout. Ain’t never was. Players with similar stat lines: Gerardo Parra; Jackie Bradley; Brad Miller 2011 2012 2013 2014 90 153 113 121 376 668 427 520 39 84 40 78 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.0 18.6 16.9 14.8 10.6 8.8 8.7 9.4 1.05 1.29 1.89 2.17 6 12 4 10 36 50 31 44 22.3 6.2% 19.4 7.1% 21.9 4.8% 20.4 10.6% Players with similar stat lines: Alex Presley; A.J. Pollock; Jackie Bradley 6 13 2 10 .273 .226 .253 .270 .249 .244 .264 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 87 121 126 369 531 520 44 69 70 .339 .265 .301 .300 -2.90 -1.40 -4.01 -0.57 414 292 520 252 2011 10.6 2012 10.7 2013 2014 13.5 7.6 8.3 9.2 1.95 1.99 1.11 8 5 6 28 49 38 18.2 10.1% 18.8 4.4% 21.1 4.1% 9 12 14 .231 .264 .270 .277 .258 .270 .240 .289 .299 -3.61 -1.19 -1.49 493 278 287 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 38 | Baseball Professor Marco Scutaro | SF | Age: 38 | Rk: 31 (306) Alberto Callaspo | OAK | Age: 31 | Rk: 34 (337) Position: 2B Position: 2B/3B If you’re seriously considering drafting Scutaro then you must be in a league that really emphasizes batting average and hits or you’re in an all-Marco Scutaro league. He’s turned in a .297+ BA in each of the last 3 seasons, but he’s coming off a year in which he combined for 4 HR+SB. At 38, there’s absolutely no upside here and while we project him for a slight rebound in 2014, we’re not talking anything significant. Callaspo has Oakland’s starting 2B job for now, but he’s a liability on defense and could likely see his role diminished to more of a utility role. His numbers have actually been amazingly stable over the last four years. That’s not to say that he’s been anything great -- he’s been consistently below average at the plate. We projected him for another season of the same, which means you should stay away. Players with similar stat lines: Jordy Mercer; DJ LeMahieu; Scooter Gennett Players with similar stat lines: Juan Uribe; Gordon Beckham; David Murphy 2011 2012 2013 2014 113 156 127 135 445 683 547 589 59 87 57 65 7 7 2 4 54 74 31 34 4 9 2 2 .299 .306 .297 .290 .271 .304 .273 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 141 138 136 133 536 520 516 509 54 55 52 53 6 10 10 10 46 53 58 53 8 4 0 2 .288 .252 .258 .260 .279 .271 .298 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 8.1 7.2 6.2 7.1 8.5 5.9 8.2 8.5 1.34 1.26 1.64 0.74 19.1 25.8 21.2 25 5.6% 3.7% 1.5% 3.0% .312 .319 .314 .307 -0.58 2.40 -1.87 -2.01 230 104 330 306 2011 9.0 2012 11.3 2013 9.1 2014 9.0 10.8 10.8 10.3 10.6 1.12 1.22 1.12 1.66 22.4 20.7 24.6 21.9 3.8% 7.0% 6.8% 8.6% .310 .268 .266 .271 -1.04 -2.35 -1.80 -2.58 254 368 323 337 Gordon Beckham | CHW | Age: 27 | Rk: 32 (309) Scooter Gennett | MIL | Age: 24 | Rk: 35 (339) Position: 2B Position: 2B Beckham made solid progress from 2011 to 2012, upping his HR total to 16 in 151 games. Last year he undid all of that, dropping to just 5 HR in 103 games. On the plus side, Beckham’s K% has dropped over the last three years from 19.9% in 2011 to 13.7% last year. Along with a career-best 23.2 LD%, it’s not shocking that Beckham escaped the .230s to post a career-best .267 BA. We think he gets some of the power back and maintains the batting average, but Beckham isn’t really someone to target. Gennett is currently the favorite to win Milwaukee’s starting 2B job, but he’s a much less valuable fantasy player than Weeks because he doesn’t have the same offensive upside. Gennett did bat .324 last year on the back of a .380 BABIP and a 24.4 LD%, but he’s much more of a .280 hitter who could derive some value from his legs. Then again, he’s never topped 14 SB in a single professional season. Players with similar stat lines: Juan Uribe; Alberto Callaspo; Gaby Sanchez Players with similar stat lines: DJ LeMahieu; John Jaso; Ryan Goins 2011 2012 2013 2014 150 151 103 138 557 582 408 514 60 62 46 58 10 16 5 10 44 60 24 59 5 5 5 2 .230 .234 .267 .260 .217 .242 .258 .240 2011 2012 2013 2014 69 118 230 478 29 52 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.9 15.3 13.7 10.9 6.3 6.9 6.9 5.4 0.98 0.90 0.86 1.05 20.3 19.5 23.2 23.7 6.4% 8.7% 3.8% 6.5% .276 .254 .299 .278 -2.95 -1.82 -3.21 -2.04 422 328 443 309 2011 2012 2013 18.3 2014 16.1 4.3 4.4 1.07 1.03 6 6 21 30 24.4 10.0% 18.9 4.0% 2 7 .324 .290 .279 .290 .380 .332 -3.46 -2.60 471 339 Grant Green | LAA | Age: 26 | Rk: 33 (311) Jemile Weeks | BAL | Age: 27 | Rk: 36 (347) Position: 2B Position: 2B Green has just 45 games of major league experience and will serve as the utility infielder for the Angels this season. LA’s acquisition of David Freese definitely hurt Green’s value this coming season, but Freese is an injury risk and we did hear some offseason grumblings that the team may be open to trading Kendrick. Should either of those happen, Green has the potential to step in and hit for a .260-.280 average and 15-20 HR over a full season. Back-to-back Weeks in our rankings, and we 100% promise this was not done on purpose. Both brothers are equally invaluable! No, I definitely meant worthless. (I’ll never understand why adding “in-” to “consistent” to form “inconsistent” takes the word from positive to negative yet adding “in-” to “valuable” to form “invaluable” takes the word from positive to even more positive.) Weeks came to the O’s in exchange for closer Jim Johnson and has enough upside late, but there’s a slim chance we get much value here. Players with similar stat lines: David Murphy; Alberto Callaspo; Henry Urrutia 2011 2012 2013 2014 45 106 153 405 16 56 2011 2012 2013 28.8 2014 21.0 6.5 6.9 1.18 2.34 1 12 17 46 21.3 2.9% 16.8 17.3% Players with similar stat lines: A.J. Pollock; Ichiro Suzuki; Alex Presley 0 2 .250 .270 .237 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 97 118 8 122 437 511 9 467 50 54 3 55 2 2 0 3 36 20 0 37 22 16 0 17 .303 .221 .111 .260 .265 .232 .144 .260 .351 .319 -6.05 -2.08 810 311 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.2 13.7 55.6 12.8 4.8 9.8 0.0 9.0 1.08 1.56 2.00 1.29 23.3 18.8 25.0 15.8 1.6% 1.7% 0.0% 2.3% .350 .256 .250 .288 -0.43 -4.37 -2.90 223 562 347 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 39 Rickie Weeks | MIL | Age: 31 | Rk: 37 (355) Brian Roberts | NYY | Age: 36 | Rk: 40 (381) Position: 2B Position: 2B While Scooter Gennett is the favorite to win the starting 2B gig in Milwaukee, Weeks definitely has the higher fantasy upside if he were to get the job. He still has 20 HR power if given enough playing time but that will come with the usual low batting average and plenty of strikeouts. Even if he loses the job to Gennett, Weeks should steal some time back throughout the season Roberts is New York’s starting 2B -- until he gets hurt, that is. He has some batting average upside, but he’ll provide little-to-nothing in terms of HR and SB, and even if he does start to contribute in those categories for a short while, you know he’s going down at some point. If you have to gamble on Roberts or Kelly Johnson, who has 2B eligibility but will start at 3B for New York, go Johnson, but I really hope this isn’t a position you find yourself in. Players with similar stat lines: Russell Martin; Dan Uggla; Trevor Plouffe 2011 2012 2013 2014 118 157 104 125 515 677 399 507 77 85 40 50 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.8 25.0 26.3 25.4 9.7 10.9 10.0 8.7 1.37 1.19 1.51 2.01 20 21 10 18 49 63 24 50 16.6 16.3% 16.9 13.1% 18.0 12.5% 20.2 22.2% Players with similar stat lines: Nolan Reimold; A.J. Ellis; Lorenzo Cain 9 16 7 9 .269 .230 .209 .230 .260 .237 .231 .240 2011 2012 2013 2014 39 17 77 98 178 74 296 367 18 2 33 40 .310 .285 .268 .266 0.82 0.50 -4.35 -2.97 151 184 562 355 2011 2012 2013 2014 11.8 16.2 14.9 15.0 6.7 6.8 8.8 9.5 0.59 1.14 0.92 2.15 3 0 8 10 19 5 39 48 22.5 4.3% 16.1 0.0% 24.2 9.1% 20.7 14.7% 6 1 3 2 .221 .182 .249 .270 .245 .172 .281 .270 .236 .214 .267 .287 -5.53 -3.47 -3.37 754 474 381 Dan Uggla | ATL | Age: 34 | Rk: 38 (374) Position: 2B From 9th to 22nd to 36th and now 40th, the downward trend continues for the Atlanta 2B. The Braves have World Series aspiriations and last year Uggla was worth just 0.4 WAR, meaning you or I could have filled in and done just as “well.” Tommy La Stella is ready to seize a starting job should Uggla again provide little or no tangible value, but even if Uggla stays in the lineup and gets 500+ PA, his 30%+ strikeout rate will mean fewer fly balls, which will mean fewer HR. Players with similar stat lines: Trevor Plouffe; Casey McGehee; Mark Reynolds 2011 2012 2013 2014 161 154 136 136 672 630 537 563 88 86 60 52 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.2 26.7 31.8 30.4 9.2 14.9 14.3 13.7 0.95 0.72 0.84 1.43 36 19 22 17 82 78 55 62 15.4 18.6% 20.1 11.4% 13.2 16.7% 18.0 17.4% 1 4 2 2 .233 .220 .179 .230 .255 .208 .185 .220 .253 .283 .225 .290 1.90 -0.51 -2.94 -3.29 109 232 418 374 Mike Aviles | CLE | Age: 33 | Rk: 39 (377) Position: 2B/3B/SS A bench player for the Indians, Aviles has actually seen a power boost in recent seasons with 22 HR in the last 2 years combined. He hits for a low average and doesn’t walk, driving his value even lower in OBP leagues, and he has no true path to playing time unless the Indians decide to trade Asdrubal Cabrera. That’s unlikely as the team is coming off a season in which they made the playoffs, but then again Aviles would be a serviceable stopgap between Cabrera and top prospect Francisco Lindor. Players with similar stat lines: Jesus Guzman; Alex Avila; Brandon Crawford 2011 2012 2013 2014 91 136 124 127 309 546 394 404 31 57 54 50 7 13 9 11 39 60 46 47 14 14 8 2 .255 .250 .252 .250 .236 .250 .247 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.2 14.1 10.4 14.1 4.2 4.2 3.8 4.7 0.98 1.04 1.17 1.37 15.7 19.3 19.8 15.7 6.8% 7.5% 7.4% 9.8% .276 .269 .257 .267 -2.73 -0.83 -1.63 -3.34 395 254 302 377 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 40 | Baseball Professor 2013: Third Base Year in Review Have you every asked yourself, “I wonder if Player X is better suited for a head-to-head league or roto league?” Well, today’s your lucky day! Behold the H2H vs. Roto quadrant, where you can quickly identify which league your favorite player stands out in. The criteria is simple: Consistent players on a weekly basis are more valuable in H2H leagues due to their weekly nature while roto leagues lend themselves to a more patient approach. However, in roto leagues you like to have players who contribute stats across the board, but you don’t care when they come. We rated some of last year’s best Third Basemen on both consistency and statistical balance based on their 2013 performance (small sample size alert!) and plopped them on a chart. Take a look! Better in H2H More consistency Great Player Jedd Gyorko Edwin Encarnacion Adrian Beltre Kyle Seager Martin Prado Pablo Sandoval Miguel Cabrera Evan Longoria Ryan Zimmerman Josh Donaldson Less balance Matt Carpenter Pedro Alvarez Todd Frazier More balance Chris Johnson Manny Machado Bad Player Less consistency Better in Roto @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 41 Who's HR/FB Rate Over- or UnderPerformed Their Average FB Distance? 30.0% 25.0% HR/FB 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 240 250 260 270 280 290 Average FB Distance 300 310 320 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 42 | Baseball Professor If you find yourself wondering whether a certain player deserved to hit as high (or low) as he did last year, rather than look at his BABIP and try to decipher whether he was lucky or unlucky just reference the chart below. Our xBA calculation takes everything you need to know into account and spits out what each hitter should have hit. The chart is easy to read: If your player lands above the line then he was unlucky (lower BA than xBA), but if he’s below the line then he was lucky and could be due for regression. It’s as easy as that! BA vs. Expected BA, 2013 Season .360 Unlucky .340 .320 Expected Batting Average .300 .280 .260 .240 .220 Lucky .200 .200 .220 .240 .260 .280 .300 .320 .340 .360 Batting Average @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 43 Third Base 2014 Preview Jake Devereaux’s Dynasty / Keeper League Watch List Rk Prospect Team 1 Kris Bryant CHC 2 Miguel Sano MIN Age ETA Comments 22 I know, I know, why isn’t Miguel Sano first? Nothing against Sano I just think Bryant is going to be special. The AFL MVP showed monster power and a very advanced approach Late 2014 at the plate this past season. He could be in Wrigley by the end of the year and could be an MVP candidate down the road if things break right for him. 21 Sano has the most impressive power in the minors and would likely be higher than 80 grade power if there was such a thing. Despite his Jurassic power stroke Sano has a lot of Late 2014 swing and miss to his game and is prone to hot and cold streaks. This streakiness and lack of plate discipline gives Bryant the nod as the more sure thing. 3 Corey Seager LAD 20 4 Nick Castellanos DET 22 5 D.J. Peterson SEA 22 Though this ranking may surprise people I fully stand by it. Seager is not sticking at shortstop due to his size so I didn’t even bother to list him there. He is bigger, stronger, 2015 and more advanced at a young age than his brother Kyle and could approach 25+HR in his prime. Castellanos could very well end up as a .300 hitter in the majors and has enough power to Early 2014 hit 20+ HR in his prime. He lacks the ceiling of some of the other guys on this list but is more of a sure thing than most prospects. It is safe to say I like Peterson a lot more than most people and the reason is his bat. In fantasy the bat trumps all and Peterson should hit for big power and a respectable 2016 average. His stock will drop if his is forced to first base, but that isn’t imminent especially since the Mariners team is made up of half first basemen. Top 40 Rankings / Auction ($) Values Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Player Name Miguel Cabrera Adrian Beltre Edwin Encarnacion David Wright Evan Longoria Ryan Zimmerman Josh Donaldson Matt Carpenter Kyle Seager Chase Headley Pedro Alvarez Pablo Sandoval Aramis Ramirez Martin Prado Brett Lawrie $ Value $42 $29 $25 $25 $23 $16 $15 $12 $11 $10 $10 $9 $9 $8 $7 Rank 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Player Name Xander Bogaerts Nolan Arenado Will Middlebrooks Jurickson Profar Manny Machado Jedd Gyorko Cody Asche Anthony Rendon David Freese Todd Frazier Chris Johnson Matt Davidson Kelly Johnson Matt Dominguez Lonnie Chisenhall $ Value $6 $4 $4 $3 $3 $2 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 A Closer Look...Third Base Superlatives Superlative Biggest Risk Safest Bet Mid-Round Sleeper Late-Round Sleeper Don't Believe the Hype Post-Hype Sleeper Best Value Pick Player You Always Own Player You Never Own Round I'll Draft 3B Better in Points Leagues Better in Roto Leagues Better in H2H Leagues Better in Keeper Leagues Matt Commins Evan Longoria Adrian Beltre Kyle Seager Will Middlebrooks Manny Machado Brett Lawrie Kyle Seager Kyle Seager Evan Longoria 10th Martin Prado Kyle Seager Will Middlebrooks Nick Castellanos Eric Broutman Evan Longoria David Wright Martin Prado Nolan Arenado Matt Carpenter Mike Moustakas Ryan Zimmerman Pedro Alvarez Chase Headley 2nd-4rd Kyle Seager Pedro Alvarez Manny Machado Mike Olt Paul Beck Pablo Sandoval Adrian Beltre David Freese Matt Davidson Manny Machado Todd Frazier David Wright Brett Lawrie Martin Prado 1st-4th Martin Prado Pedro Alvarez David Wright Nick Castallenos Adam Nodiff Evan Longoria Miguel Cabrera Kyle Seager Pablo Sandoval Matt Carpenter Brett Lawrie Ryan Zimmerman Pablo Sandoval Aramis Ramirez 2nd-3rd Pedro Alvarez David Wright Adrian Beltre Manny Machado Jake Devereaux Manny Machado Adrian Beltre Brett Lawrie Nolan Arenado Pablo Sandoval Todd Frazier Kyle Seager Ryan Zimmerman Pablo Sandoval 2nd Pedro Alvarez Ryan Zimmerman Adrian Beltre Nolan Arendado @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 44 | Baseball Professor Miguel Cabrera | DET | Age: 31 | Rk: 1 (2) David Wright | NYM | Age: 31 | Rk: 4 (16) Position: 1B/3B Position: 3B Cabrera will not play 3B, which is great for fantasy owners. The back-to-back MVP struggled mightily down the stretch (.056 ISO in Sep.) due to minor injuries, so the move to 1B should keep him healthy. Even better for 2014, Cabrera will maintain 3B eligibility. There’s not much to say about his offense as his production speaks for itself. He’s the best hitter in the game and only 31 years old. (Note: We ranked him at 1B since he’ll gain it within a week.) Wright missed the end of last season with a strained hamstring, but before going down he was having a very good year. The R and RBI weren’t there, but Wright was on pace for a 20/20 season with a BA north of .300. With back-to-back seasons of 5-category production, it’s safe to say Wright is back. But is he now injury-prone? Nope. The Mets were awful last year and had no reason to push him to return, and his missed time in 2011 was because of a non-recurring fractured back. Honestly, I’m not sure Wright gets anough attention. Players with similar stat lines: Paul Goldschmidt; Joey Votto; Adrian Beltre 2011 2012 2013 2014 161 161 148 159 688 697 652 698 111 109 103 104 2011 2012 2013 2014 12.9 14.1 14.4 14.3 15.7 9.5 13.8 13.3 1.30 1.17 1.03 1.14 30 44 44 38 105 139 137 128 22.1 18.2% 21.7 23.0% 24.0 25.4% 22.7 23.9% Players with similar stat lines: Eric Hosmer; Hanley Ramirez; Carlos Gonzalez 2 4 3 3 .344 .330 .348 .330 .317 .330 .345 .330 2011 2012 2013 2014 102 156 112 138 447 670 492 615 60 91 63 82 .365 .331 .356 .338 8.48 10.46 12.02 11.66 7 3 1 2 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.7 16.7 16.1 16.1 11.6 12.1 11.2 11.9 1.07 1.20 0.97 1.07 14 21 18 22 61 93 58 93 18.0 12.0% 22.2 12.5% 22.9 13.0% 21.6 14.1% 13 15 17 18 .254 .306 .307 .300 .240 .283 .301 .280 .302 .347 .340 .318 -0.17 5.25 2.95 5.64 212 25 79 16 Adrian Beltre | TEX | Age: 35 | Rk: 2 (11) Evan Longoria | TB | Age: 28 | Rk: 5 (27) Position: 3B Position: 3B Like David Ortiz at 1B, Beltre is having a late-career resurgence. Aside from that 48 HR season everyone tiptoes around like Aunt Karen’s drinking problem, Beltre has never had more fantasy value. It all started in 2010 with the Red Sox so you can’t just say it’s Arlington making him look good, and somehow Beltre has posted the 3 best strikeout rates of his career at ages 32, 33, and 34. He’s reached the 30 HR mark in 3 straight seasons after doing it only once *ahem* in his prior 12 years. Don’t fear a breakdown. Not yet. Players with similar stat lines: Freddie Freeman; Prince Fielder; Troy Tulowitzki 2011 2012 2013 2014 124 156 161 159 525 654 690 676 82 95 88 88 2011 2012 2013 2014 10.1 12.5 11.3 11.8 4.8 5.5 7.2 5.9 0.86 0.98 0.95 0.94 32 36 30 31 105 102 92 99 18.1 16.4% 21.1 17.0% 21.8 13.5% 20.8 14.8% When is it time to back off with our Longoria projections and just plan for something to go wrong? In 2010, he only hit 22 HR. In 2011, the HR returned but his BA fell to .244. In 2012, he was great on a per-game basis, but he only played 74 games. Last year, his health rebounded for a career-best 160 games, but once again his BA was disappointing. Our projected line gives Longoria a career-best 34 HR with 96 RBI but prevents him from ranking as a top 15 player, which would be too high for a such a perennially frustrating player. Players with similar stat lines: Edwin Encarnacion; Prince Fielder; Albert Pujols 1 1 1 1 .296 .321 .315 .300 .300 .312 .319 .310 2011 2012 2013 2014 133 74 160 154 574 312 693 686 78 39 91 87 .273 .319 .322 .300 4.72 6.64 6.27 6.07 36 14 17 11 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.2 19.6 23.4 19.0 13.9 10.6 10.1 10.1 0.84 0.93 0.83 1.38 31 17 32 34 99 55 88 96 18.0 17.6% 21.9 19.5% 18.6 15.7% 21.2 23.3% 3 2 1 3 .244 .289 .269 .280 .290 .302 .245 .270 .239 .313 .312 .292 2.43 -1.53 4.30 5.04 85 297 45 27 Edwin Encarnacion | TOR | Age: 31 | Rk: 3 (14) Josh Donaldson | OAK | Age: 28 | Rk: 6 (50) Position: 1B/3B Position: 3B After a monster 2012 season everyone expected some regression, but Encarnacion basically replicated his numbers across the board despite suffering a wrist injury. The most impressive thing about him is his miniscule 10.0 K%, which is unheard of for big-time power hitters. He may be 31 years old, which should be a factor in keeper drafts, but those in redraft leagues should be good to go. These years, a .270/30/100 player is very valuable in fantasy. Though Donaldson’s minor league track record doesn’t suggest he’ll repeat his 2013 success, every single one of his peripheral stats does. An 11.4 BB%, 16.5 K%, 20.6 LD%, 14.2 HR/ FB rate and consistent monthly production all indicate that more of the same is on the way for 2014. He’s clearly not in the Adrian Beltre-Edwin Encarnacion-David Wright-Evan Longoria class of 3B, but he’s nipping at their heels. Players with similar stat lines: Evan Longoria; Jay Bruce; Prince Fielder 2011 2012 2013 2014 134 151 142 156 530 644 621 633 70 93 90 91 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.5 14.6 10.0 13.0 8.1 13.0 13.2 12.6 0.82 0.67 0.81 0.76 17 42 36 34 55 110 104 98 19.4 9.4% 17.6 18.7% 21.6 17.6% 19.7 17.6% Players with similar stat lines: Eric Hosmer; Jayson Werth; Aaron Hill 8 13 7 7 .272 .280 .272 .280 .243 .302 .323 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 75 158 155 294 668 650 34 89 84 .292 .266 .247 .268 0.48 6.89 6.08 5.85 170 10 20 14 2011 2012 20.7 2013 16.5 2014 16.6 4.8 11.4 11.4 1.06 1.23 1.15 9 24 23 33 93 80 22.5 11.3% 20.6 14.2% 21.1 14.4% 4 5 8 .241 .301 .290 .259 .276 .290 .278 .333 .315 -4.19 5.33 4.02 543 29 50 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 45 Ryan Zimmerman | WAS | Age: 29 | Rk: 7 (61) Chase Headley | SD | Age: 30 | Rk: 10 (80) Position: 3B Position: 3B Surprisingly, Zimmerman has missed has missed more than 20 games just twice in his 8-year career (I assumed it was more). He’s also incredibly consistent (except when thowing to first), hitting at least 25 HR in 4 of 5 years and batting at least .282 in 5 of 6. Zimmerman marks the end of the tier of consistent, everyday 3B (Carpenter is ranked close behind but you’re not using him at 3B). I really like Kyle Seager and Pedro Alvarez, but Zimmerman is balanced and, SB aside, has no real weaknesses. Headley has just missed the top 20 at 3B in 2 of the last 3 years, so which season do we believe: his breakout 2012 or his more-than-disappointing encore? Like with most things in life, the answer is probable, “Somewhere in the middle.” No, Headley isn’t a 30 HR slugger with a 20% HR/FB rate, but a .250 BA despite a 22.6 LD% and a career-low 5.9 IFFB%? That doesn’t make sense either. Last year we projected Headley for high-teens HR, with a .280 BA and 80-90 RBI. We’re keeping this projection because why let one bad year sway us? Players with similar stat lines: Jason Heyward; Justin Upton; Kyle Seager 2011 2012 2013 2014 101 145 147 141 440 641 633 637 52 93 84 91 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.6 18.1 21.0 18.8 9.3 8.9 9.5 9.6 1.49 1.44 1.32 1.39 12 25 26 25 49 95 79 74 15.7 10.9% 18.5 16.0% 21.5 17.6% 19.3 17.4% Players with similar stat lines: Chase Utley; Jason Castro; Michael Cuddyer 3 5 6 6 .289 .282 .275 .280 .255 .278 .286 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 113 161 141 147 439 699 600 633 43 95 59 72 .326 .313 .316 .308 -1.00 3.79 3.64 3.51 251 52 59 61 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.0 22.5 23.7 23.5 11.8 12.3 11.2 11.5 1.42 1.51 1.47 1.47 4 31 13 16 44 115 50 86 21.9 4.3% 19.5 21.4% 22.6 10.9% 21.3 13.3% 13 17 8 13 .289 .286 .250 .280 .230 .274 .254 .260 .368 .337 .319 .343 -1.45 6.68 -1.03 2.76 282 13 268 80 Matt Carpenter | STL | Age: 28 | Rk: 8 (69) Pedro Alvarez | PIT | Age: 27 | Rk: 11 (84) Position: 2B/3B Position: 3B Carpenter wasn’t a known commodity to begin the 2013 season, but that quickly changed as he rode a .318 BA and 126 R to a #2 ranking among all second basemen. If you were good at reading between the lines you would realize his major flaw from that statement. How did he only rank 2nd? Because he only contributed 11 HR and 3 SB. Carpenter is a doubles-hitting machine, but if he’s not scoring 100+ R with a .300+ BA it’s likely he will be overvalued on draft day. You’ve been warned. If I was to ever use the “But power is at a premium!” excuse to target a player, it would be with Alvarez. In fact, his 2013 season might have been more valuable than his rank implies. Our rankings algorithm leverages marginal analysis to give a “bonus” to players who produce at the extremes of a scarcer commodity -- HR in today’s MLB -- but it can’t fully account for how having an elite producer of that commodity gives you the flexibility to manage your roster (e.g., pairing Alvarez with Billy Hamilton). We haven’t seen Alvarez’s ceiling yet. Players with similar stat lines: Nick Markakis; Aaron Hill; Yadier Molina Players with similar stat lines: Mark Trumbo; Mark Teixeira; Giancarlo Stanton 2011 2012 2013 2014 7 114 157 156 19 340 717 701 0 44 126 98 0 6 11 12 0 46 78 67 0 1 3 5 .067 .294 .318 .300 .067 .253 .324 .300 2011 2012 2013 2014 74 149 152 153 262 586 614 620 18 64 70 72 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.1 18.5 13.7 14.1 21.1 10.0 10.0 10.6 0.83 1.12 1.14 1.11 0.0 23.8 27.3 22.3 0.0% 7.0% 6.1% 6.4% .091 .346 .359 .333 -2.69 5.72 3.25 397 23 69 2011 2012 2013 2014 30.5 30.7 30.3 30.3 9.2 9.7 7.8 8.9 2.18 1.36 1.18 1.45 4 30 36 36 19 85 100 102 19.5 10.3% 18.7 25.0% 20.5 26.3% 19.7 25.6% 1 1 2 2 .191 .244 .233 .240 .215 .257 .266 .250 .272 .308 .276 .282 -6.65 0.70 2.84 2.64 1071 172 82 84 Kyle Seager | SEA | Age: 26 | Rk: 9 (71) Pablo Sandoval | SF | Age: 27 | Rk: 12 (101) Position: 3B Position: 3B Bit by bit, Seager is becoming a reliable fantasy option. With Robinson Cano and Corey Hart now forming a very good 3-4 duo, Seager should be able to set a new career-best in R. He’s only a .260 hitter because of his fly ball tendency in a spacious park, but his K% and LD% are average. We’ll take a small risk and say something clicks well enough for him to get into the .270s. The development of teammates Dustin Ackley (batting leadoff) and Brad Miller (9th) will decide whether Seager can break beyond our projected 70 RBI. Fat Ichiro is less fat. Skinny Panda maybe? A lighter Sandoval makes everyone happy, particularly people like co-founder George Fitopoulos, who has been on the Sandoval train for years. We never truly know what this “best shape of my career” stuff really means -- it worked for John Lackey -- but if you had to bet on Sandoval getting back to his old self or staying at the .275/14/75 level, where would you put your money? He’s not as reliable (or valuable) as Pedro Alvarez, but he has more upside than Aramis Ramirez. Players with similar stat lines: Jason Heyward; Ben Zobrist; Justin Upton 2011 2012 2013 2014 53 155 160 159 201 651 695 688 22 62 79 89 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.9 16.9 17.6 17.2 6.5 7.1 9.8 9.3 0.73 0.85 0.76 0.78 3 20 22 22 13 86 69 70 27.7 4.8% 21.9 9.8% 20.8 9.9% 21.9 10.6% Players with similar stat lines: Billy Butler; Jason Castro; Aramis Ramirez 3 13 9 11 .258 .259 .260 .280 .270 .262 .248 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 117 108 141 138 466 442 584 578 55 59 52 68 .303 .286 .290 .303 -5.40 1.31 2.17 3.13 737 139 107 71 2011 2012 2013 2014 13.5 13.3 13.5 14.9 6.9 8.6 8.0 8.7 1.07 1.17 1.11 0.93 23 12 14 17 70 63 79 83 19.5 16.0% 20.3 9.5% 21.3 8.3% 20.4 10.0% 2 1 0 1 .315 .283 .278 .290 .280 .258 .261 .270 .320 .301 .301 .301 1.85 -0.89 0.28 2.07 112 256 192 101 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 46 | Baseball Professor Aramis Ramirez | MIL | Age: 36 | Rk: 13 (106) Xander Bogaerts | BOS | Age: 21 | Rk: 16 (144) Position: 3B Position: 3B/SS Don’t sleep on Milwaukee’s 3B, who actually ranked 5th among 3B in both 2011 and 2012. Injuries limited him to just 351 PA last year, but Ramirez was on pace for his normal .280/25/90 season. This spring we’ll see how well he’s recovered from the knee injury that ended his 2013 season prematurely, but if the 140th pick rolls by and you haven’t drafted your 3B yet, Ramirez makes for a better option than just about anyone else below. If you’re lucky enough (or aggressive enough) to draft Bogaerts this spring, you’re probably already penciling in a few .290/25/100 seasons. Those are entirely realistic totals. I’ll readily acknowledge that in my pursuit to find the “unifying number in fantasy”, I often disregard the intangibles. They’re harder to measure and their effect on a player’s production and development is speculation at best. The good thing for prospective Bogaerts owners is that not only does he have the intangibles, he also has the basic stats we all love. Players with similar stat lines: Marlon Byrd; Jason Castro; Nolan Arenado 2011 2012 2013 2014 149 149 92 134 626 630 351 527 80 92 43 69 2011 2012 2013 2014 11.0 13.0 15.7 15.2 6.9 7.0 10.3 9.5 0.79 0.91 1.05 2.09 26 27 12 20 93 105 49 80 23.2 12.0% 18.9 12.9% 19.4 12.1% 21.3 22.2% Players with similar stat lines: Michael Cuddyer; Chase Utley; Asdrubal Cabrera 1 9 0 2 .306 .300 .283 .290 .293 .277 .257 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 18 138 50 535 7 71 .308 .310 .308 .304 4.19 5.46 -1.70 1.94 49 22 311 106 2011 2012 2013 26.0 2014 23.2 10.0 8.8 2.50 0.64 1 16 5 73 34.4 16.7% 19.1 9.3% 1 7 .250 .280 .316 .280 .323 .334 -5.96 1.28 792 144 Martin Prado | ARI | Age: 30 | Rk: 14 (117) Nolan Arenado | COL | Age: 23 | Rk: 17 (155) Position: 2B/3B/OF Position: 3B Prado might be one of the more consistent players in baseball over the last 4 years. Despite a couple of blips on the radar you can count on a .280-.290 BA, 10-15 HR, 140+ R+RBI, and fewer than 5 SB. He’s a high-contact hitter, who likes to keep the ball near the ground (liners and grounders), which maintains the high batting average. Yes, this is boring analysis for a boring player, but he’s solid across the board and eligible at mulitiple positions, which makes him fairly valuable. Players with similar stat lines: Jason Castro; Pablo Sandoval; Yadier Molina 2011 2012 2013 2014 Arenado isn’t a pure slugger who’s going to turn Coors Field into his stomping ground, but he’s a very good hitter who could post Aramis Ramirez-type numbers in the near future. Unfortunately, though, Arenado is blocked out of the good lineup spots in Colorado, meaning he has to bat 7th for an NL lineup (ahead of feared slugger, DJ LeMahieu). His BA will almost definitely be good, but 15-20 HR, 70 R, and 70 RBI are about the best we can expect unless his situation changes. Players with similar stat lines: Alexander Guerrero; Aramis Ramirez; Brandon Belt 129 156 155 152 590 690 664 629 66 81 70 72 13 10 14 14 57 70 82 77 4 17 3 4 .260 .301 .282 .290 .251 .306 .298 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 133 151 514 622 49 71 2011 8.8 2012 10.0 2013 8.0 2014 9.2 5.8 8.4 7.1 7.6 1.47 1.65 1.58 1.21 14.6 22.8 21.9 24.1 7.5% 6.2% 8.2% 8.1% .266 .322 .288 .300 -0.84 2.81 1.80 1.71 245 88 127 117 2011 2012 2013 14.0 2014 12.4 4.5 5.3 1.26 2.39 10 18 52 67 23.8 7.1% 17.4 15.0% 2 2 .267 .280 .288 .290 .296 .300 -1.66 1.14 307 155 Brett Lawrie | TOR | Age: 24 | Rk: 15 (138) Will Middlebrooks | BOS | Age: 25 | Rk: 18 (160) Position: 2B/3B Position: 3B Despite being just 24 years old, Lawrie has been marked with a scarlet “B” (bust) as he’s failed to live up to the tremendous hype he generated after his successful cup of coffee in 2011. Lawrie has a very good contact rate along with league average power, however he hasn’t harnessed those skills into a true breakout campaign just yet. Still at 24, Lawrie still has time to develop into a future All-Star as not all players get it right off the bat. Let’s give the youngster some time to develop. In search of cheap power? Then Middlebrooks is your man! A humiliating demotion helped the young 3B get his head on straight after early success had him believing he could hit anything out. A more grounded, patient approach combined with Middlebrooks’ raw strength and Fenway’s Green Monster make a 25-30 HR season an inevitability. Even though he’s had plenty of ups and downs in his brief MLB career, Middlebrooks has always provided power. His career totals almost read like a single season -- 660 PA, 32 HR, 103 RBI. Players with similar stat lines: Avisail Garcia; Asdrubal Cabrera; Chase Utley 2011 2012 2013 2014 43 125 107 138 171 536 442 556 26 73 41 67 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.1 16.0 15.4 14.9 9.4 6.2 6.8 7.7 0.85 1.69 1.42 3.18 9 11 11 16 25 48 46 75 16.9 17.0% 20.0 9.0% 17.4 9.6% 19.4 21.1% Players with similar stat lines: Oswaldo Arcia; J.J. Hardy; Corey Hart 7 13 9 14 .293 .273 .254 .270 .264 .279 .261 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 75 94 134 286 374 523 34 41 67 .318 .311 .280 .291 -3.38 -0.06 -1.88 1.38 465 210 333 138 2011 2012 24.5 2013 26.2 2014 22.9 4.5 5.3 5.7 1.24 1.04 1.31 15 17 24 54 49 76 21.5 21.4% 20.2 17.2% 21.6 20.3% 4 3 4 .288 .227 .260 .286 .264 .270 .335 .263 .297 -1.86 -2.35 1.07 330 361 160 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 47 Jurickson Profar | TEX | Age: 21 | Rk: 19 (165) Cody Asche | PHI | Age: 24 | Rk: 22 (189) Position: 2B/3B/SS Position: 3B So Profar was just a tad outdone by Mike Trout in their age21 seasons. Does that make Profar a bust? His 2013 season was disappointing, but we’re talking about a player who has performed well at every level despite being young for the group. It may be another year or 2 before we truly see Profar blossom into a star because he is still so young, but he can definitely bring value just because of his power/speed combo along with valuable position eligibility. Players with similar stat lines: Alejandro De Aza; Josh Rutledge; Brad Miller 2011 2012 2013 2014 9 85 147 17 324 556 2 30 74 2011 2012 23.5 2013 19.4 2014 18.0 0.0 8.0 9.4 1.40 1.18 1.63 1 6 13 2 26 53 7.7 20.0% 23.4 7.7% 21.4 11.4% Maikel Franco isn’t ready to take the Phillies 3B job yet, which means Asche will get a chance to show what he can do. His minor league numbers and brief success with the Phillies last year indicate Asche could be a high-teens, low20s HR hitter, and there’s a chance he posts a league average K% while maintaining a .270-.280 BA. His numbers won’t be spectacular and I doubt we’ll suddenly see a Matt Carpenter-esque breakout, but Asche is going to have value. Players with similar stat lines: Asdrubal Cabrera; Jhonny Peralta; Neil Walker 0 2 17 .176 .234 .280 .214 .261 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 50 140 179 550 18 62 .167 .280 .315 -7.61 -4.82 0.94 1176 629 165 2011 2012 2013 24.0 2014 20.0 8.4 8.7 1.24 0.79 5 18 22 68 21.0 11.9% 19.9 11.1% 1 6 .235 .270 .251 .280 .287 .309 -5.44 0.37 697 189 Manny Machado | BAL | Age: 21 | Rk: 20 (173) Anthony Rendon | WAS | Age: 24 | Rk: 23 (216) Position: 3B Position: 2B/3B Season-ending knee surgery, poor 2nd-half production, and an insane amount of hype have all contributed to Machado landing on my “Hell No” list for 2014. We have him 21st among all 3B, expecting his free-swinging ways and high IFFB% to make another .320+ BABIP unlikely, and the rest is pretty much a repeat of what we saw last year. Machado has been great, but lumping him in with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper (like many have) is premature. His reputation is predicated on elite defense, but that won’t help your fantasy team. While I love his walk rate, he doesn’t seem to have a ton of category juice (HR and SB) at this time in his career. Danny Espinosa, on the other hand, does, and it wasn’t long ago that Espinosa had positive value. No, I don’t think Rendon will lose the Nationals’ 2B job to Espinosa, but he could lose enough playing time to see it severely impact his already depressed fantasy value. Long-term I’m definitely more bullish, but in the short term I have my reservations. Players with similar stat lines: Zack Cozart; Brandon Phillips; Brad Miller 2011 2012 2013 2014 51 156 135 202 710 565 24 88 80 2011 2012 18.8 2013 15.9 2014 14.0 4.5 4.1 4.4 1.17 1.46 1.42 7 14 15 26 71 64 13.9 11.7% 20.6 7.9% 21.6 10.4% Players with similar stat lines: Yan Gomes; Jed Lowrie; Daniel Nava 2 6 6 .262 .283 .270 .207 .246 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 98 145 394 525 40 63 .293 .322 .310 -4.87 2.59 0.81 962 90 173 2011 2012 2013 17.5 2014 16.6 7.9 9.5 1.20 1.20 7 15 35 60 25.5 7.2% 25.5 12.3% 1 2 .265 .280 .278 .290 .307 .314 -3.28 -0.11 453 216 Jedd Gyorko | SD | Age: 25 | Rk: 21 (182) David Freese | LAA | Age: 31 | Rk: 24 (240) Position: 2B/3B Position: 3B Gyorko not only managed to hit 23 HR last year, but he did so while both playing in San Diego and missing 1 1/2 months with a groin injury. Add in the fact that 15 of his 23 HR came after the injury and we are looking at some impressive power, especially from someone who boasts 2B eligibility. He needs to work on his plate discipline as his 0.27 BB/K leaves a lot to be desired, but his rookie season definitely could have gone worse. Getting traded for an injury-prone gloveman (Peter Bourjos) to make room for a rookie (Kolten Wong) just has to hurt. Fortunately for Freese, he landed on a team in desperate need of both a 3B and a right-handed bat. Freese has shown time and time again that he’s capable of being a .280-.300 hitter, but a career 25.7 FB% isn’t going to translate into many HR, especially in Anaheim. You’d also expect a guy batting 5th to total more than our projected 68 RBI, but Freese’s recent performances haven’t inspired much confidence from me. Players with similar stat lines: Matt Wieters; Jason Kubel; J.J. Hardy 2011 2012 2013 2014 125 146 525 604 62 70 2011 2012 2013 23.4 2014 20.2 6.3 8.3 0.94 1.31 23 25 63 76 22.5 15.9% 21.3 18.4% Players with similar stat lines: James Loney; Yonder Alonso; Chris Johnson 1 1 .249 .260 .280 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 97 144 138 141 363 567 521 567 41 70 53 55 10 20 9 13 55 79 60 68 1 3 1 2 .297 .293 .262 .280 .312 .301 .272 .290 .287 .279 0.09 0.57 203 182 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.7 21.5 20.3 19.6 6.6 10.1 9.0 9.5 2.27 1.98 2.30 4.65 24.6 21.8 20.9 20.3 16.7% 20.0% 10.5% 24.3% .356 .352 .320 .329 -1.54 1.75 -1.53 -0.41 292 124 293 240 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 48 | Baseball Professor Todd Frazier | CIN | Age: 28 | Rk: 25 (250) Kelly Johnson | NYY | Age: 32 | Rk: 28 (270) Position: 3B Position: 2B/3B/OF One of our favorite sleepers last year, Frazier didn’t quite reach last year’s borderline top-10 3B projection. He was able to match his 19 HR from 2011, but he also had 135 extra PA in which to do it. His LD% fell under 20.0 as Frazier’s BA tumbled all the way to .234, but he’s at least a little better than that. A .261/6/13 September has me thinking we finally might get that 25-28 HR season from the Reds 3B, but but that’s overly optimistic considering his career numbers. Johnson is a low-average player who now has the starting 3B job in light of Alex Rodriguez’s year-long ban. He’s hit no fewer than 16 HR in any of the past 4 years, which is encouraging if you play him at a power-starved 2B position, but Johnson’s also hit higher than .235 just once in the last five years (.284 in 2010). The extra playing time will be nice and Johnson provides some pop for a middle infielder, but don’t expect him to contribute much else. Players with similar stat lines: Matt Davidson; Garrett Jones; Matt Dominguez 2011 2012 2013 2014 41 128 150 148 121 465 600 596 17 55 63 59 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.3 22.2 20.8 20.1 5.8 7.7 8.3 8.2 1.54 0.74 1.06 0.98 6 19 19 21 15 67 73 75 21.4 23.1% 22.4 13.2% 18.1 11.7% 20.8 13.3% Players with similar stat lines: Matt Joyce; Marcell Ozuna; Josh Reddick 1 3 6 6 .232 .273 .234 .250 .277 .244 .238 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 147 142 118 138 613 581 407 501 75 61 41 68 .253 .316 .269 .272 -5.62 -0.30 -0.10 -0.55 769 222 212 250 2011 2012 2013 2014 26.6 27.4 24.3 24.4 9.8 10.7 8.6 9.2 0.97 1.34 0.84 1.67 21 16 16 19 58 55 52 58 20.4 13.8% 21.0 13.7% 15.2 12.9% 5.9 17.4% 16 14 7 8 .222 .225 .235 .240 .248 .232 .204 .230 .277 .292 .276 .282 -0.16 -1.55 -1.80 -1.10 211 303 322 270 Chris Johnson | ATL | Age: 29 | Rk: 26 (260) Matt Dominguez | HOU | Age: 24 | Rk: 29 (274) Position: 1B/3B Position: 3B Johnson is not a .320 hitter — you know that — but he is a .280+ hitter. His 27.0 LD% was a blistering and it’s not far off his career rate of 24.9%. In short, Johnson isn’t as good as he was last year, but he’s pretty darn close. Unfortunately he doesn’t offer much beyond a solid batting average. A 1.65 GB/FB rate limits his power potential and his weak 0.25 BB/K rate means he relies way too much on his BABIP for his fantasy value. Dominguez is the perfect Astro -- he can hit the long ball, doesn’t like to wait very long for his pitch, and he’s cheap. If you give somebody with 20 HR power enough PA, they’ll hit those 20 HR and knock in 70 while they’re at it. That’s Dominguez in a nutshell. As Bill Simmons would say, “Ladies and gentlemen, your 2014 Houston Astros!” Players with similar stat lines: David Freese; Anthony Rendon; Paul Konerko 2011 2012 2013 2014 107 136 142 138 405 528 547 534 32 48 54 49 2011 2012 2013 2014 24.0 25.0 21.2 22.1 4.0 5.9 5.3 5.6 1.52 1.13 1.65 1.54 7 15 12 14 42 76 68 63 23.2 8.0% 25.6 11.9% 27.0 10.9% 22.7 12.7% Players with similar stat lines: Garrett Jones; Hunter Morris; Evan Gattis 2 5 0 2 .251 .281 .321 .280 .263 .270 .299 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 17 31 152 146 48 113 589 566 2 14 56 52 .317 .354 .394 .339 -3.83 -0.15 1.29 -0.84 519 216 147 260 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.7 15.0 16.3 15.7 4.2 3.5 5.1 6.5 1.50 2.00 1.07 1.62 0 5 21 20 2 16 77 74 18.9 0.0% 18.5 20.0% 18.7 11.8% 24.4 16.8% 0 0 0 2 .244 .284 .241 .250 .172 .312 .243 .250 .297 .299 .254 .262 -7.23 -5.90 -0.32 -1.24 1187 1004 227 274 Matt Davidson | CHW | Age: 23 | Rk: 27 (262) Lonnie Chisenhall | CLE | Age: 25 | Rk: 30 (284) Position: 3B Position: 3B Chase Field, U.S. Cellular, it makes no difference to Davidson. He was put on God’s green earth -- or at least in a major league uniform -- to hit HR. He doesn’t hit a ton of them, but it’s really his only skill. At this spot in the rankings you’re looking at a player who will go undrafted in almost all formats, but Davidson should be on your watch list should a hot start lead to a nice buy low, sell high opportunity. Despite ranking Chisenhall after Chris Johnson and Matt Dominguez, I would much rather risk it with Chisenhall. His role is less certain than the flawed players above him, but Chisenhall has a more prototypical prospect profile and could be on the verge of living up to that .278/81/17/84 potential he showed at AA in 2010. Or he could be the 2nd coming of Andy Marte, but I guess that’s why they play the games, right? Players with similar stat lines: Todd Frazier; Justin Smoak; Garrett Jones 2011 2012 2013 2014 31 141 87 560 8 62 2011 2012 2013 27.6 2014 25.0 11.5 9.8 1.00 1.01 3 21 12 73 26.9 15.8% 21.0 16.0% Players with similar stat lines: Hunter Morris; Cody Ross; Michael Morse 0 2 .237 .250 .281 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 66 43 94 134 223 151 308 526 27 16 30 50 7 5 11 18 22 16 36 67 1 2 1 2 .255 .268 .225 .260 .240 .284 .268 .260 .306 .287 -6.42 -0.86 876 262 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.0 17.9 18.2 17.1 3.6 5.3 5.2 7.6 0.91 1.32 0.91 1.52 19.5 25.2 19.7 18.5 10.1% 13.5% 11.2% 14.9% .299 .300 .243 .277 -4.69 -5.74 -4.13 -1.45 625 992 539 284 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 49 Nick Castellanos | DET | Age: 22 | Rk: 31 (286) Juan Uribe | LAD | Age: 35 | Rk: 34 (332) Position: 3B/OF Position: 3B Prince Fielder’s departure opened the door for every day playing time at 3B. Batting between Alex Avila and Jose Iglesias, the correct approach with Castellanos is to expect the worst and hope for the best. His 2013 season at AAA was encouraging, particularly his 16.8 K%, 9.1 BB%, and career-best .174 ISO, and who else is Detroit going to put at third? Miguel Cabrera? Pah! Players with similar stat lines: Lonnie Chisenhall; Mike Moustakas; Michael Morse 2011 2012 2013 2014 Uribe amuses me. Last year he hit 12 HR with a 116 wRC+, meaning he was 16% better than a league average hitter, and he posted some of the best advanced fielding metrics of any 3B. In total, he was worth 5.1 WAR. I don’t think I’ve found a more eye-popping stat from the 2013 season than Uribe’s WAR. He played just 132 games and posted nearly the same WAR as Jacoby Ellsbury (5.8 in 136 games) who just signed a $153MM contract. Obviously I’m not saying Uribe is worth that money, but man, that’s a fun comparison. Players with similar stat lines: Gordon Beckham; Alberto Callaspo; Andy Dirks 11 142 18 538 1 58 0 15 0 67 0 2 0.278 0.26 0.197 0.26 2011 2012 2013 2014 77 66 132 135 295 179 426 477 21 15 47 53 2011 2012 2013 5.6 2014 18.8 0 7.8 1.67 4.28 5.9 20.4 0 0.267 0.294 0.288 -7.37 -1.45 1198 286 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.3 20.7 19.0 19.3 5.8 7.3 7.0 7.8 1.01 1.36 1.16 0.80 4 2 12 10 28 17 50 59 17.5 4.6% 16.8 4.5% 20.1 10.5% 22.1 7.1% 2 0 5 2 .204 .191 .278 .260 .183 .213 .268 .260 .245 .234 .322 .300 -5.98 -7.13 -1.02 -2.51 849 1108 266 332 Mike Moustakas | KC | Age: 25 | Rk: 32 (300) Trevor Plouffe | MIN | Age: 28 | Rk: 35 (336) Position: 3B Position: 3B The player I once dubbed “The Worst Hitter in Baseball” managed just 12 HR and 84 R and RBI COMBINED in 2013. His LD% was better, but still below league average, and his 16.6 IFFB% was terrible (but, sadly, a career best). Moustakas has a 20 HR season under his belt already, but he has a very long way to go before he can get to the .270/22/80 line that’s required of a corner infielder in fantasy. Players with similar stat lines: Mike Zunino; Hunter Morris; Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2011 2012 2013 2014 89 149 136 149 365 614 514 567 26 69 42 55 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.0 20.2 16.1 17.5 6.0 6.4 6.2 7.1 0.93 0.68 0.82 1.18 5 20 12 17 30 73 42 64 20.4 4.2% 16.4 9.0% 18.8 6.9% 21.3 11.6% An 11 HR month propelled Plouffe to his “where did that come from?” 24 HR season in 2012. Expecting the same production last year was foolhardy. When a player performs so far beyond above the rest of their season’s production for a short period of time, there’s probably a reason why they’re not playing like that more often. That doesn’t mean Plouffe can’t hit 18-20 HR. He mangaged 14 last year despite a noticeable drop in his FB% from 2012. His BA will be poor but he’ll provide occassional HR pop at a very low price. Players with similar stat lines: Marcell Ozuna; Casey McGehee; Mike Zunino 2 5 2 2 .263 .242 .233 .250 .221 .201 .216 .210 2011 2012 2013 2014 81 119 129 141 320 465 522 560 47 56 44 53 .296 .274 .257 .276 -4.40 -0.33 -3.37 -1.81 580 223 464 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.2 19.8 21.5 21.4 7.8 8.0 6.5 7.7 1.07 0.87 1.05 0.88 8 24 14 18 31 55 52 63 17.1 9.5% 18.5 16.7% 24.7 10.4% 22.8 11.7% 3 1 2 2 .238 .235 .254 .240 .218 .256 .275 .250 .286 .244 .301 .269 -3.64 -1.58 -1.92 -2.58 496 305 336 336 Mark Reynolds | MIL | Age: 30 | Rk: 33 (323) Alberto Callaspo | OAK | Age: 31 | Rk: 36 (337) Position: 1B/3B Position: 2B/3B Now in Milwaukee, Reynolds probably won’t get a shot at a fulltime job mostly because his 1 skill is slipping away from him. His ISO (.173) dipped under .200 and his slugging percentage (.393) dipped under .400 for the 1st time in his career. We have him projected for 487 PA, which is probably on the high end, but in Milwaukee he can should reach the 20 HR mark once again. We all know where that batting average is going to end up, but if you play in OBP leagues he could add some value there. Callaspo has Oakland’s starting 2B job for now, but he’s a liability on defense and could likely see his role diminished to more of a utility role. His numbers have actually been amazingly stable over the last four years. That’s not to say that he’s been anything great, but he’s been consistently below average at the plate. We projected him for another season of the same, which means you should stay away. Players with similar stat lines: Trevor Plouffe; Dan Uggla; Evan Gattis 2011 2012 2013 2014 155 135 135 127 620 538 504 487 84 65 55 59 2011 2012 2013 2014 31.6 29.6 30.6 32.2 12.1 13.6 10.1 10.5 0.82 0.87 0.93 2.19 37 23 21 21 86 69 67 62 13.2 22.7% 20.4 18.1% 18.2 16.9% 21.7 17.0% Players with similar stat lines: Juan Uribe; Gordon Beckham; David Murphy 6 1 3 2 .221 .221 .220 .230 .215 .235 .219 .220 2011 2012 2013 2014 141 138 136 133 536 520 516 509 54 55 52 53 6 10 10 10 46 53 58 53 8 4 0 2 .288 .252 .258 .260 .279 .271 .298 .280 .266 .282 .282 .284 2.05 -1.37 -1.08 -2.22 101 291 273 323 2011 9.0 2012 11.3 2013 9.1 2014 9.0 10.8 10.8 10.3 10.6 1.12 1.22 1.12 1.66 22.4 20.7 24.6 21.9 3.8% 7.0% 6.8% 8.6% .310 .268 .266 .271 -1.04 -2.35 -1.80 -2.58 254 368 323 337 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 50 | Baseball Professor Mike Aviles | CLE | Age: 33 | Rk: 37 (377) Brett Wallace | HOU | Age: 27 | Rk: 40 (437) Position: 2B/3B/SS Position: 1B/3B A bench player for the Indians, Aviles has actually seen a power boost in recent seasons with 22 HR in the last 2 years combined. He hits for a low average and doesn’t walk, driving his value even lower in OBP leagues, and he has no true path to playing time unless the Indians decide to trade Asdrubal Cabrera. That’s unlikely as the team is coming off a season in which they made the playoffs, but then again Aviles would be a serviceable stopgap between Cabrera and top prospect Francisco Lindor. Wallace has made a career out of striking out. He’s a career .242 hitter that many hoped would one day provide 29 HR, 102 RBI seasons. Instead, those are actually his career HR and RBI numbers, which it’s taken him 1,077 PA to accue. Between Jonathan Singleton and even Marc Krauss, Wallace won’t rack up nearly enough PA to have an impact in fantasy leagues this year, but after 40 3B you’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel. Players with similar stat lines: Jesus Guzman; Alex Avila; Brandon Crawford Players with similar stat lines: Ryan Flaherty; Geovany Soto; Chris Colabello 2011 2012 2013 2014 91 136 124 127 309 546 394 404 31 57 54 50 7 13 9 11 39 60 46 47 14 14 8 2 .255 .250 .252 .250 .236 .250 .247 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 115 66 79 94 379 254 285 376 37 24 35 34 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.2 14.1 10.4 14.1 4.2 4.2 3.8 4.7 0.98 1.04 1.17 1.37 15.7 19.3 19.8 15.7 6.8% 7.5% 7.4% 9.8% .276 .269 .257 .267 -2.73 -0.83 -1.63 -3.34 395 254 302 377 2011 2012 2013 2014 24.0 28.7 36.5 27.7 9.5 7.1 6.3 7.2 1.95 1.09 1.08 1.00 5 9 13 13 29 24 36 44 21.1 7.6% 26.8 16.4% 22.2 22.0% 17.7 14.4% 1 0 1 2 .259 .253 .221 .240 .240 .269 .220 .250 .339 .331 .310 .299 -4.17 -5.11 -3.70 -4.31 559 643 490 437 DJ LeMahieu | COL | Age: 25 | Rk: 38 (399) Position: 2B/3B The utility infielder for the 2013 Rockies, LeMahieu did accrue 434 PA while batting .280 with 18 SB. He’s a surprisingly tall 6’4, but has never hit for much power in the minors. The Rockies’ 2B job is up for grabs and if he can find himself with another 400+ PA he’ll bring value in both batting average and steals thanks to his high-contact style, but there’s not much upside for him adding value elsewhere. Players with similar stat lines: John Jaso; Craig Gentry; Mark Ellis 2011 2012 2013 2014 37 81 109 118 62 247 434 401 3 26 39 49 0 2 2 3 4 22 28 32 0 1 18 2 .250 .297 .280 .280 .251 .251 .315 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.4 17.0 15.4 15.5 1.6 5.3 4.4 5.5 3.44 2.26 3.03 1.02 16.7 19.0 27.2 20.1 0.0% 4.3% 3.3% 2.5% .313 .353 .328 .328 -7.10 -4.95 -2.00 -3.78 1166 964 341 399 Jose Iglesias | DET | Age: 24 | Rk: 39 (405) Position: 3B/SS A Gold Glove-caliber SS who retains 3B eligibility from his time with the Red Sox, Iglesias won’t come anywhere near his .303 BA last season. Our line doesn’t give him much credit for his power or speed -- he could steal 5-10 bases -- but Iglesias is as bad with the bat as he’s great with the glove. Players with similar stat lines: Adeiny Hechavarria; Pedro Florimon; Drew Stubbs 2011 2012 2013 2014 10 25 109 152 6 77 382 572 3 5 39 66 0 1 3 5 0 2 29 40 0 1 5 9 .333 .118 .303 .240 .338 .166 .240 .240 2011 2012 2013 2014 33.3 20.8 15.7 13.5 0.0 5.2 3.9 5.2 3.00 2.31 2.21 1.55 25.0 15.7 18.0 21.9 0.0% 7.7% 4.2% 3.7% .500 .137 .356 .267 -7.17 -2.60 -3.81 1177 385 405 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 2013: Shortstop Year in Review Baseball Professor | 51 Have you every asked yourself, “I wonder if Player X is better suited for a head-to-head league or roto league?” Well, today’s your lucky day! Behold the H2H vs. Roto quadrant, where you can quickly identify which league your favorite player stands out in. The criteria is simple: Consistent players on a weekly basis are more valuable in H2H leagues due to their weekly nature while roto leagues lend themselves to a more patient approach. However, in roto leagues you like to have players who contribute stats across the board, but you don’t care when they come. We rated some of last year’s best Shortstop on both consistency and statistical balance based on their 2013 performance (small sample size alert!) and plopped them on a chart. Take a look! Better in H2H More consistency Great Player Andrelton Simmons Jimmy Rollins Alexei Ramirez J.J. Hardy Asdrubal Cabrera Ben Zobrist Troy Tulowitzki Stephen Drew Jed Lowrie Less balance Jean Segura More balance Ian Desmond Zack Cozart Yunel Escobar Erick Aybar Elvis Andrus Better in Roto Bad Player Less consistency @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 52 | Baseball Professor Who's HR/FB Rate Over- or UnderPerformed Their Average FB Distance? 30.0% 25.0% HR/FB 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 240 250 260 270 280 290 Average FB Distance 300 310 320 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 53 If you find yourself wondering whether a certain player deserved to hit as high (or low) as he did last year, rather than look at his BABIP and try to decipher whether he was lucky or unlucky just reference the chart below. Our xBA calculation takes everything you need to know into account and spits out what each hitter should have hit. The chart is easy to read: If your player lands above the line then he was unlucky (lower BA than xBA), but if he’s below the line then he was lucky and could be due for regression. It’s as easy as that! BA vs. Expected BA, 2013 Season .360 Unlucky .340 .320 Expected Batting Average .300 .280 .260 .240 .220 Lucky .200 .200 .220 .240 .260 .280 .300 .320 .340 .360 Batting Average @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 54 | Baseball Professor Shortstop 2014 Preview Jake Devereaux’s Dynasty / Keeper League Watch List Rk Prospect Team Age 1 Xander Bogaerts BOS 21 2 Carlos Correa HOU 19 3 Javier Baez CHC 21 4 Addison Russell OAK 20 5 Francisco Lindor CLE 20 ETA Comments My love of Bogaerts is well documented. He leads the most talented group on this list. Early 2014 What gets Bogaerts the nod over his peers is his floor, his advanced approach is much more polished than Baez and his ceiling is very similar. What Correa did last season at his age was remarkable slashing .320/.405/.467 at A-ball. At just 18 Correa could end up the best player on this list. Correa has the work ethic and 2016 makeup of a veteran already: that coupled with his immense talent makes his future incredibly bright. Baez does everything 100% on the baseball field and swings at pitches most guys wouldn’t even offer at. The difference is Baez is able to square up bad pitches and launch Mid-2014 them out of the park when he does. His fantasy ceiling is the highest on this list but his swing and miss potential makes his floor the lowest of our top 4 SS prospects. Russell was challenged by his promotion to high A Stockton at 19 years old last season and struggled to find his way initially. He made improvements at the plate and 2015 defensively and is a pretty sure thing to stick at short. He headlines a very weak Oakland system. Despite the label of defense first shortstop the young Indians shortstop is a lock to stay at Late 2014 the position and have the potential to offer a prime very similar to Elvis Andrus who was our 5th ranked SS going into this season. Top 40 Rankings / Auction ($) Values Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Player Name Troy Tulowitzki Hanley Ramirez Jose Reyes Ian Desmond Elvis Andrus Ben Zobrist Jean Segura Everth Cabrera Alexei Ramirez Xander Bogaerts Starlin Castro Erick Aybar J.J. Hardy Jimmy Rollins Jurickson Profar $ Value $24 $23 $21 $21 $18 $12 $12 $10 $7 $6 $5 $5 $4 $4 $3 Rank 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Player Name Brad Miller Asdrubal Cabrera Andrelton Simmons Josh Rutledge Jed Lowrie Zack Cozart Jhonny Peralta Jonathan Villar Alcides Escobar Derek Jeter Chris Owings Jordy Mercer Rafael Furcal Yunel Escobar Mike Aviles $ Value $3 $3 $3 $1 $1 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 A Closer Look...Shortstop Superlatives Superlative Biggest Risk Safest Bet Mid-Round Sleeper Late-Round Sleeper Don't Believe the Hype Post-Hype Sleeper Best Value Pick Player You Always Own Player You Never Own Round I'll Draft SS Better in Points Leagues Better in Roto Leagues Better in H2H Leagues Better in Keeper Leagues Matt Commins Hanley Ramirez Ian Desmond Starlin Castro Jonathan Villar Jean Segura Starlin Castro Everth Cabrera J.J. Hardy Hanley Ramirez 11th Jose Reyes Jose Reyes Jonathan Villar Xander Bogaerts Eric Broutman Hanley Ramirez Ian Desmond Starlin Castro Andrelton Simmons Jean Segura Starlin Castro J.J. Hardy Ben Zobrist Troy Tolowitski 1st-5th Elvis Andrus Alexi Ramirez J.J. Hardy Andrelton Simmons Paul Beck Hanley Ramirez J.J. Hardy Everth Cabrera Johnny Peralta Derek Jeter Dee Gordon Everth Cabrera Erick Aybar Starlin Castro 5th-8th Andrelton Simmons Ian Desmond Everth Cabrera Andrelton Simmons Adam Nodiff Hanley Ramirez Ian Desmond Everth Cabrera Brad Miller Jean Segura Starlin Castro J.J. Hardy Troy Tulowitzki Elvis Andrus 1st-2nd J.J. Hardy Hanley Ramirez Ian Desmond Xander Bogaerts Jake Devereaux Jose Reyes Elvis Andrus Xander Bogaerts Brad Miller Starlin Castro Zack Cozart J.J. Hardy Stephen Drew Jose Reyes 4th Jose Reyes Hanley Ramirez Elvis Andrus Xander Bogaerts @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 55 Troy Tulowitzki | COL | Age: 29 | Rk: 1 (13) Ian Desmond | WAS | Age: 28 | Rk: 4 (48) Position: SS Position: SS Having missed 210 games over the last 4 years, Tulowitzki has played in exactly 67.6% of all possible games. That number is a little skewed by his 47-game season in 2012, but even then he’s only topped 126 games in 3 of his 7 season and just 2 of his past 6. Like teammate Carlos Gonzalez, we keep putting Tulo at the top because if he’s healthy he deserves to be here. Plus, barring a devastating injury that costs him more than 30 games, Tulo+Field = #1. Desmond was THISCLOSE to toppline Reyes for a spot in our top 3, but in the end we couldn’t give him enough R or RBI batting 6th for Washington. A hitter with a 20%+ strikeout rate, it’s going to take BABIPs of .320 or better for Desmond to remain a .280 hitter, but last year he set a new career high in LD% and he has good speed down the line. Will Desmond’s K% bet back to the sub-20% rates we saw in his first big league action? It’s possible, but batting after the heart of the lineup has turned Desmond into more of a slugger. Players with similar stat lines: Robinson Cano; Freddie Freeman; Adrian Beltre 2011 2012 2013 2014 143 47 126 136 606 203 512 580 81 33 72 82 2011 13.0 2012 9.4 2013 16.6 2014 16.2 9.7 9.4 11.1 11.0 1.07 1.25 1.10 1.14 30 8 25 29 105 27 82 95 19.5 16.8% 16.7 13.3% 20.8 18.1% 19.7 20.3% Players with similar stat lines: Matt Kemp; Hanley Ramirez; Alex Rios 9 2 1 5 .302 .287 .312 .310 .290 .294 .307 .300 2011 2012 2013 2014 154 130 158 156 639 547 655 645 65 72 77 75 .305 .284 .334 .319 5.62 -4.00 3.79 5.86 30 524 54 13 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.8 20.7 22.1 20.6 5.5 5.5 6.6 6.0 1.70 1.38 1.27 1.51 8 25 20 22 49 73 80 77 17.5 6.0% 17.9 18.2% 22.5 12.9% 22.4 16.0% 25 21 21 23 .253 .292 .280 .280 .225 .272 .272 .260 .317 .332 .336 .322 -0.13 3.75 4.39 4.09 210 53 43 48 Hanley Ramirez | LAD | Age: 30 | Rk: 2 (29) Elvis Andrus | TEX | Age: 25 | Rk: 5 (60) Position: SS Position: SS In our early 2014 mock draft, Ramirez went 8th overall. I mocked the pick at the time, but after compiling our HanRam projection about 2 months later, I realized there was some validity to the thought process. No, I wouldn’t take Ramirez in the first 2 rounds, but I also didn’t think I’d have him going for a .280/25/86 season with 19 SB. Ramirez played under 100 games in 2 of the last 3 years, but he’s healthy now so draft him with confidence. I’ve never been a fan of Andrus, but this offseason I was struck by a curious notion -- is Andrus really that much different than Jose Reyes? Last year Andrus rode 91 R, 42 SB, and 61 RBI to 3rd among SS, a spot befitting a player like Reyes. Andrus has virtually no injury concerns, which gives him a leg up on Reyes, and if he’s going to contribute 35+ SB with 90+ R, how different can the 2 really be? Reyes will almost certainly post a better BA and hit more HR -- and he definitely has the higher ceiling -- but Andrus has the stability. Players with similar stat lines: Jayson Werth; Matt Kemp; Bryce Harper 2011 2012 2013 2014 92 157 86 146 385 667 336 640 55 79 62 82 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.1 19.8 15.5 16.1 11.4 8.1 8.0 8.1 1.53 1.37 1.08 1.90 10 24 20 25 45 92 57 86 15.9 11.1% 18.4 14.7% 22.0 21.1% 20.3 20.1% Players with similar stat lines: Jose Altuve; Jean Segura; Brett Gardner 20 21 10 19 .243 .257 .345 .280 .246 .257 .304 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 150 158 156 158 665 711 698 699 96 85 91 92 5 3 4 4 60 62 67 62 37 21 42 38 .279 .286 .271 .280 .319 .290 .273 .290 .275 .290 .363 .297 -1.02 3.38 2.80 4.86 253 63 85 29 2011 2012 2013 2014 11.1 13.5 13.9 13.7 8.4 8.0 7.4 8.0 2.65 2.72 2.51 2.61 23.1 21.9 21.3 21.9 4.8% 2.8% 3.4% 3.4% .312 .332 .312 .319 3.56 1.72 4.38 3.57 61 126 44 60 Jose Reyes | TOR | Age: 31 | Rk: 3 (40) Ben Zobrist | TB | Age: 33 | Rk: 6 (65) Position: SS Position: 2B/SS Like the 2 guys ahead of him, Reyes is frequently tagged with the “injury prone” label, but that didn’t stop him from ranking 1st overall at the position in 2012 and 2nd in 2011 (despite playing in just 126 games!). Reyes has a history of hamstring issues, but last year it was a new injury -- a high ankle sprain sliding into a base. That’s a freak injury that could happen to anyone, so I’m not going to worry much about it this preseason. Until further notice, Reyes is his usual 30+ SB self. Zobrist just barely reached the 10 GS mark (11) to gain the much-vaunted SS eligibility in almost every league, and that’s a big deal as there’s no doubt that his stat line is more valuable as a middle infielder. He’s not a bad OF option as well, but in 2013 he struggled in the power department, specifically from the right side of the plate. His .083 ISO was in 2013 was 100 points lower than his .183 ISO in 2012. If he can fix whatever was ailing him from that side then we should see a nice rebound in 2014. Players with similar stat lines: Jose Altuve; Desmond Jennings; Daniel Murphy 2011 2012 2013 2014 Players with similar stat lines: Justin Upton; Kyle Seager; Jason Heyward 126 160 93 142 586 716 419 623 101 86 58 89 7 11 10 13 44 57 37 57 39 40 15 32 .337 .287 .296 .290 .281 .291 .287 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 156 157 157 154 674 668 698 680 99 88 77 93 2011 7.0 2012 7.8 2013 11.2 2014 9.3 7.3 8.8 8.1 8.7 1.14 1.43 1.38 1.14 21.1 21.7 21.2 20.9 3.9% 5.9% 9.0% 7.1% .353 .298 .315 .307 5.61 4.15 0.24 4.50 31 42 194 40 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.0 15.4 13.0 12.9 11.4 14.5 10.3 11.8 1.30 1.24 1.14 1.30 20 20 12 21 91 74 71 77 19.6 12.4% 21.8 12.5% 19.7 6.1% 18.7 12.4% 19 14 11 11 .269 .270 .275 .270 .254 .289 .253 .260 .310 .296 .303 .285 4.33 2.57 1.96 3.35 45 97 117 65 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 56 | Baseball Professor Jean Segura | MIL | Age: 24 | Rk: 7 (77) Xander Bogaerts | BOS | Age: 21 | Rk: 10 (144) Position: SS Position: 3B/SS Here’s what we know about Segura: He has elite speed, the Brewers will let him run (57 attempts in 2013), and he can hit 10-14 HR. What we don’t know is whether Segura can repeat his .326 BABIP with below average line drive rates and how seriously we should take his significant 2nd-half slide. Segura batted just .241 after the break with a 3.5 BB%, 15.9 K%, and 15.5 LD%, the first and last of which are terrible. Segura will steal his bases and score runs atop Milwaukee’s lineup (Ryan Braun is back!) but the BA could be underwhelming. If you’re lucky enough (or aggressive enough) to draft Bogaerts this spring, you’re probably already penciling in a few .290/25/100 seasons. Those are entirely realistic totals. I’ll readily acknowledge that in my pursuit to find the “unifying number in fantasy”, I often disregard the intangibles. They’re harder to measure and their effect on a player’s production and development is speculation at best. The good thing for prospective Bogaerts owners is that not only does he have the intangibles, he has the basic stats we all love. Players with similar stat lines: Brett Gardner; Jose Altuve; Michael Bourn 2011 2012 2013 2014 45 146 146 166 623 640 19 74 88 2011 2012 13.9 2013 13.5 2014 13.4 7.8 4.0 5.9 3.42 2.52 2.88 0 12 8 14 49 50 15.2 0.0% 18.0 10.4% 17.5 7.5% Players with similar stat lines: Michael Cuddyer; Chase Utley; Asdrubal Cabrera 7 44 41 .258 .294 .270 .241 .307 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 18 138 50 535 7 71 .302 .326 .301 -5.79 4.86 2.90 994 36 77 2011 2012 2013 26.0 2014 23.2 10.0 8.8 2.50 0.64 1 16 5 73 34.4 16.7% 19.1 9.3% 1 7 .250 .280 .316 .280 .323 .334 -5.96 1.28 792 144 Everth Cabrera | SD | Age: 27 | Rk: 8 (86) Starlin Castro | CHC | Age: 24 | Rk: 11 (145) Position: SS Position: SS Much to the dismay of fantasy owners who were riding his breakout season, particularly in H2H leagues, Cabrera inevitably succumbed to Uncle Bud’s 50 game PED suspension. Going forward, the SB are going to be there, but Cabrera’s status as a borderline top 5 SS comes down to how much of his .283 BA and 82 R pace he can maintain. A career-best 15.9 K% was the biggest driver in raising his BA, and a .337 BABIP is repeatable for such a speedy player. The stats say Cabrera should repeat, but we had to account for the PED X-factor at least a little. Players with similar stat lines: Jean Segura; Brett Gardner; Leonys Martin Castro ranked 4th among SS in 2011 and 7th in 2012 before falling outside the top 20 last year. His 18.3 K% was easily a career worst, and it was exacerbated by his already poor sub-5.0% walk rate. When Castro did make contact, he usually hit the ball into the ground, and to make matters worse he attempted just 15 steals last year, which is 10 fewer attempts than he had successes in 2012 (25). As much as I don’t like projecting so many career bests all to carry over (see: Everth Cabrera), the same holds true for career worsts. Castro will be better. Players with similar stat lines: Alexei Ramirez; Andrelton Simmons; Melky Cabrera 2011 2012 2013 2014 2 115 95 148 9 449 435 676 1 49 54 82 0 2 4 4 0 24 31 41 2 44 37 50 .125 .246 .283 .270 .220 .230 .285 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 158 162 161 160 715 691 705 700 91 78 59 74 10 14 10 10 66 78 44 71 22 25 9 17 .307 .283 .245 .270 .290 .277 .257 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 33.3 24.5 15.9 16.9 11.1 9.6 9.4 9.6 5.00 3.00 3.19 4.82 0.0 19.1 20.6 19.8 0.0% 3.7% 7.0% 6.5% .200 .336 .337 .319 -0.92 0.95 2.54 257 161 86 2011 2012 2013 2014 13.4 14.5 18.3 15.1 4.9 5.2 4.3 5.9 1.55 1.48 1.73 1.13 20.1 20.5 19.9 23.1 5.5% 8.0% 6.3% 5.2% .344 .315 .290 .306 4.19 3.32 -1.84 1.26 50 66 328 145 Alexei Ramirez | CHW | Age: 32 | Rk: 9 (135) Erick Aybar | LAA | Age: 30 | Rk: 12 (149) Position: SS Position: SS Putting Ramirez 9th in our preseason SS rankings doesn’t sit well with me, but stats are stats and Ramirez earned every point of his .283 BA and each one of his career-best 39 steal attempts. Over the last 4 years, his HR total has consistently fallen, but so has his K%. He also had a career-best 22.1 LD%, which is significant for a player who couldn’t even hit 19% during his 1st 3 years. I don’t like predicting so many career bests all to carry over, hence why we drop his BA to .270, but he also hit 5 HR in the 2nd half, so expect that total to rise. Batting somewhere around Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton (even though he’s no longer that same Josh Hamilton), Aybar has to have value, right? Pay attention this spring to how both Aybar and new left fielder Kole Calhoun perform. Aybar is in a great spot batting 1st or 2nd with Trout bothering opposing SP, but should Calhoun seize the leadoff role as reports suggest, Aybar gets relegated to the bottom of the lineup where Chris Iannetta will keep him company. Players with similar stat lines: Starlin Castro; Jimmy Rollins; Andrelton Simmons Players with similar stat lines: Angel Pagan; Adam Eaton; Denard Span 2011 2012 2013 2014 158 158 158 158 684 621 674 668 81 59 68 71 15 9 6 10 70 73 48 66 7 20 30 21 .269 .265 .284 .270 .260 .270 .278 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 143 141 138 146 605 554 589 610 71 67 68 83 10 8 6 7 59 45 54 51 30 20 12 22 .279 .290 .271 .280 .281 .264 .287 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 12.3 12.4 10.1 10.0 7.5 2.6 3.9 4.2 1.29 1.38 1.67 1.16 19.3 19.8 22.1 20.4 8.1% 5.1% 3.6% 4.9% .288 .290 .309 .292 1.17 0.49 2.21 1.42 134 185 106 135 2011 2012 2013 2014 11.2 11.0 10.0 10.8 5.1 4.0 3.9 5.1 1.54 1.78 1.81 1.26 20.7 18.5 22.9 23.8 7.0% 6.4% 4.6% 4.2% .301 .316 .292 .302 2.27 0.56 0.04 1.21 93 177 205 149 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 57 Jurickson Profar | TEX | Age: 21 | Rk: 13 (165) Brad Miller | SEA | Age: 24 | Rk: 16 (176) Position: 2B/3B/SS Position: 2B/SS So Profar was just a tad outdone by Mike Trout in their age21 seasons. Does that make Profar a bust? His 2013 season was disappointing, but we’re talking about a player who has performed well at every level despite being young for the group. It may be another year or 2 before we truly see Profar blossom into a star because he is still so young, but he can definitely bring value just because of his power/speed combo along with valuable position eligibility. Players with similar stat lines: Alejandro De Aza; Josh Rutledge; Brad Miller 2011 2012 2013 2014 9 85 147 17 324 556 2 30 74 2011 2012 23.5 2013 19.4 2014 18.0 0.0 8.0 9.4 1.40 1.18 1.63 1 6 13 2 26 53 7.7 20.0% 23.4 7.7% 21.4 11.4% Miller has a lot of bad organizational history to overcome, but I actually think he’s going to do it. With great plate discipline and enough power/speed, all that’s left to do is see whether he can finally reach that .270, 15 HR, 15 SB level that we’ve been waiting for Dustin Ackley to reach. There aren’t many SS, especially at this point of the rankings, who can contribute solidly across all 5 fantasy categories like Miller can. Players with similar stat lines: Jurickson Profar; Austin Jackson; Manny Machado 0 2 17 .176 .234 .280 .214 .261 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 76 152 335 646 41 77 8 13 36 57 5 12 .265 .270 .261 .280 .167 .280 .315 -7.61 -4.82 0.94 1176 629 165 2011 2012 2013 15.5 2014 16.3 7.2 9.0 1.42 1.03 21.6 21.6 9.9% 7.6% .294 .307 -2.70 0.71 394 176 J.J. Hardy | BAL | Age: 31 | Rk: 14 (167) Asdrubal Cabrera | CLE | Age: 28 | Rk: 17 (181) Position: SS Position: SS Hardy has just barely cracked the top 10 SS in 2 of the last 3 seasons, riding the position’s 2nd-best power bat (Troy Tulowitzki) to fantasy stardom. OK, stardom may be taking it too far, but who wouldn’t want a 25 HR, 75 RBI SS? In a good year he’ll score 75+ R, but you’re never going to get more than a pair of SB and his BA will range from acceptable to ouch. Hardy’s career 16.8 LD% is laughably bad, but last year he worked his K% down to 11.3. If he can keep that in the 11-13% range, he could post a .270+ BA for the 1st time since 2008. Last year’s .242 BA shouldn’t worry you at all. Cabrera had another very good LD% and was well below the league average in IFFB%, yet he posted just a .283 BABIP. He’s a .270-.275 hitter with mid-teens HR power and the speed to regularly reach 10 SB (or thereabouts). Batting 6th for Cleveland, as he’s expected to, will hurt his R and RBI numbers, but we might even be a little on the low side there. We’ve already seen Cabrera’s career year, but that doesn’t mean the rest of his seasons are useless. Players with similar stat lines: Matt Adams; Will Middlebrooks; Jedd Gyorko 2011 2012 2013 2014 129 158 159 155 567 713 644 641 76 85 66 67 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.2 14.9 11.3 14.0 5.5 5.3 5.9 6.2 0.93 1.09 1.18 0.79 30 22 25 26 80 68 76 74 16.4 15.7% 16.9 10.0% 16.6 12.4% 20.1 12.1% Players with similar stat lines: Cody Asche; Corey Dickerson; Jhonny Peralta 0 0 2 1 .269 .238 .263 .260 .266 .245 .268 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 151 143 136 144 667 616 562 596 87 70 66 62 25 16 14 16 92 68 64 70 17 9 9 9 .273 .270 .242 .270 .263 .270 .260 .260 .273 .253 .263 .269 2.22 -0.43 1.65 0.88 94 228 134 167 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.8 16.1 20.3 18.1 6.6 8.4 6.2 6.7 1.13 1.16 0.89 0.94 17.5 23.4 23.0 22.5 13.3% 9.9% 8.7% 9.5% .302 .303 .283 .309 4.38 0.64 -0.20 0.59 44 173 222 181 Jimmy Rollins | PHI | Age: 35 | Rk: 15 (175) Andrelton Simmons | ATL | Age: 24 | Rk: 18 (186) Position: SS Position: SS I think we’re going to see 1 more good season out of Rollins. Our projected 11 HR isn’t quite what he used to be able to do, but after last year’s 6 HR season, we’ll take anything. His LD% was very good and his HR/FB rate fell to about half of his previous career low, so he’ll definitely get better. Plus, don’t forget he’s just 2 years removed from a 23 HR season. I’m not saying Rollins will return to top 10 SS status, but something in the 12-17 range is likely given he still has his speed. Last year we all thought Simmons would steal 15-20 bases and crack a couple HR. Instead, he flipped those totals, probably ending up at about the same spot in end-of-year rankings as he was projected from the outset. I think he has too much speed to have the SB vanish, but unless we get news out of Atlanta that the team wants him to run more, consider our projected 17 SB an indication of how athletic we think Simmons is. He pulled almost every single HR directly down the left field line and displayed zero opposite field power, so expect his HR to drop. Players with similar stat lines: Andrelton Simmons; Will Venable; Christian Yelich 2011 2012 2013 2014 142 156 160 153 631 699 666 665 87 102 65 72 2011 9.4 2012 13.7 2013 14.0 2014 14.3 9.2 8.9 8.9 9.0 0.95 0.95 0.98 1.18 16 23 6 11 63 68 39 59 20.2 7.7% 19.0 10.4% 23.6 3.1% 19.1 6.0% Players with similar stat lines: Junior Lake; Jimmy Rollins; Christian Yelich 30 30 22 23 .268 .250 .252 .260 .271 .240 .245 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 49 157 158 182 658 671 17 76 68 3 17 12 19 59 61 1 6 17 .289 .248 .270 .253 .263 .270 .275 .262 .288 .292 3.25 3.85 -0.55 0.74 66 50 237 175 2011 2012 11.5 2013 8.4 2014 7.0 6.6 6.1 6.3 2.05 1.08 0.84 17.0 18.5 24.3 7.5% 7.9% 5.1% .310 .247 .270 -5.60 0.22 0.43 986 195 186 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 58 | Baseball Professor Josh Rutledge | COL | Age: 25 | Rk: 19 (193) Jhonny Peralta | STL | Age: 32 | Rk: 22 (239) Position: 2B/SS Position: SS Rutledge is stuck in the black hole of MLB lineup slots: batting 8th for an NL team (in front of the pitcher). Generally that means he’ll be pitched around, and it’ll severely limit his R and RBI numbers. Despite playing in Coors, Rutledge doesn’t have a ton of power potential, but he does have enough speed to top 15 steals. With some luck he could combine for 30 HR+SB, and he has the ability to bat at least .270. There’s a lot of “ifs” and a lot of potential with Rutledge, who has just 605 career PA. Jhonny Peralta is dfenitely an ugprade for the Cradinals, who sfufered trhough smoe afwul SS paly lsat saeson. A 50-gmae ssupension edned his saeson eraly, but he cmae bcak for the palyoffs and tehn sgined a ncie offseason cnotract. Wehn looking at Peralta’s 2013 saeson, two nmubers jmup out at me: his .374 BABIP and 21.9 K%. The K% has been ternding in the worng driection rceently, mvoing bcak twoard his eraly-craeer rtaes wehn he was a 20 HR htiter, so myabe smoe of the pwoer is cmoing bcak. Players with similar stat lines: Kolten Wong; Jurickson Profar; Alejandro De Aza 2011 2012 2013 2014 73 88 141 291 314 467 37 45 68 2011 2012 18.6 2013 19.7 2014 18.2 3.1 7.0 6.6 1.59 1.51 1.12 8 7 11 37 19 48 20.1 11.6% 18.5 9.7% 20.6 8.7% Players with similar stat lines: Yan Gomes; Andre Ethier; Carlos Quentin 7 12 18 .274 .235 .280 .283 .266 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 146 150 107 147 576 585 448 570 68 58 50 61 .315 .276 .319 -3.07 -3.27 0.27 425 452 193 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.5 17.9 21.9 19.3 6.9 8.4 7.8 7.9 0.81 1.13 1.09 1.23 21 13 11 16 86 63 55 68 20.0 10.8% 22.0 8.3% 25.2 9.8% 24.5 12.0% 0 1 3 2 .299 .239 .303 .270 .252 .261 .276 .260 .325 .275 .374 .309 2.38 -2.37 -0.19 -0.40 86 370 221 239 Jed Lowrie | OAK | Age: 30 | Rk: 20 (212) Jonathan Villar | HOU | Age: 23 | Rk: 23 (243) Position: 2B/SS Position: SS Lowrie has a lengthy injury history yet somehow stayed on the field for 154 games last year. I’m not saying that was completely fluky and that Lowrie can’t put up another 150 game season, but I am saying that I certainly won’t be gambling on Lowrie doing it again. I’ll let someone else take that risk as he’ll likely go a lot earlier than this rankings suggests he should. If you do take a chance on him as your starting SS, then make sure you have a viable backup plan. Villar is worth monitoring solely for his speed. In just 58 games with Houston last year, he swiped 18 bags, which, combined with the 31 he stole at AAA, gave him 49 on the year. While Villar can definitely work a lot of walks, sometimes he takes his patience to the extreme -- his K% tends to be around 25, way too high for a speed-first player. It’s likely Villar ends up as Houston’s everyday SS, and there’s even some hidden 12-15 HR potential should get get 500+ PA. Players with similar stat lines: Daniel Nava; Anthony Rendon; David Freese 2011 2012 2013 2014 88 97 154 138 341 387 662 525 40 43 80 68 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.6 16.8 13.7 16.4 6.7 11.1 7.6 8.4 0.67 0.57 0.77 0.68 6 16 15 12 36 42 75 66 17.6 4.8% 19.3 11.3% 23.4 6.8% 21.3 6.7% Players with similar stat lines: Ben Revere; Alcides Escobar; Will Venable 1 2 1 1 .252 .244 .290 .280 .220 .257 .268 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 58 149 241 565 26 65 1 8 8 42 18 33 .243 .250 .217 .250 .289 .257 .319 .319 -3.82 -3.01 2.25 -0.01 518 422 103 212 2011 2012 2013 29.5 2014 24.8 10.0 8.1 4.67 1.19 20.3 17.2 5.6% 5.7% .362 .319 -4.37 -0.45 566 243 Zack Cozart | CIN | Age: 28 | Rk: 21 (234) Alcides Escobar | KC | Age: 27 | Rk: 24 (248) Position: SS Position: SS Cozart has shaken some of his supporters, but he’s hit 15 and 12 HR in the last 2 seasons while upping his RBI total to 63 last year. Batting 2nd in Cincy is nice, especially if Joey Votto can do what a number 3 hitter is supposed to do and drive those top 2 guys in. A 30 SB guy in the minors, Cozart surprisingly has just 4 SB in 300 career games, but it’s conceivable that the Reds SS could run more with a new manager at the helm. Should Cozart reach our projection with another half-dozen SB mixed in, his line would look pretty nice. Escobar always does enough to make you wonder whether he’s worth rostering, but the 12-18 range is pretty much the best-case scenario for a .270 batter with 25 SB speed, very little power, and a sprinling of R and RBI. Escobar never walks, so don’t even think about targeting or adding him in an OBP league, but he’s reliably hit line drives well over 20% of the time in the last 2 seasons. One year it showed up in his BA (2012) and the other year it didn’t (2013). We’ll split the difference. Players with similar stat lines: Andre Ethier; Manny Machado; Neil Walker Players with similar stat lines: Michael Bourn; Coco Crisp; Jonathan Villar 2011 2012 2013 2014 11 138 151 155 38 600 618 626 6 72 74 74 2 15 12 15 3 35 63 62 0 4 0 4 .324 .246 .254 .260 .283 .252 .241 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 158 155 158 156 598 648 642 645 69 68 57 70 4 5 4 4 46 52 52 51 26 35 22 27 .254 .293 .234 .260 .262 .288 .279 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 15.8 18.8 16.5 17.3 0.0 5.2 4.2 4.5 1.80 1.09 1.59 1.03 9.7 20.0 18.0 22.6 20.0% 8.8% 8.1% 8.4% .345 .282 .285 .297 -6.60 -2.12 -0.57 -0.29 1055 349 240 234 2011 2012 2013 2014 12.2 15.4 13.1 13.0 4.2 4.2 3.0 4.5 1.86 2.25 1.49 2.12 18.1 23.0 23.0 23.8 3.0% 4.3% 2.5% 3.1% .285 .344 .264 .290 -0.30 2.27 -1.38 -0.52 216 106 288 248 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 59 Derek Jeter | NYY | Age: 40 | Rk: 25 (258) Rafael Furcal | MIA | Age: 36 | Rk: 28 (287) Position: SS Position: 2B/SS Just when you thought the Yankees couldn’t top the Mariano Rivera Farewell Tour, here comes the Derek Jeter Farewell Tour. I think the Captain goes out on a positive note (or as positive as his aging body will allow), and that means a .280 BA and a little over 70 R. Would it surprise me if Jeter somehow stays healthy enough for 650 PA, 90 R, 10 HR, 60 RBI, 10 SB, and a .285 BA. Not in the least. SS lacks high-upside options late -- it always has -- and Jeter’s final season offers a different kind of upside. Analyzing Furcal is easy because you don’t even have to get into his declining production at the plate. He can’t stay healthy! Let’s ignore the fact that he missed all of 2013 after Tommy John surgery, but he also missed 41 games in 2012, 75 games in 2011, and 65 games in 2010. Even if he were Mike Trout you wouldn’t be drafting him with that spotty of an injury history. And let me tell you something, Furcal ain’t nothing like Trout. Ain’t never was. Players with similar stat lines: Omar Infante; Jordy Mercer; Daniel Nava 2011 2012 2013 2014 131 159 17 141 607 740 73 589 84 99 8 72 2011 2012 2013 2014 13.3 12.2 13.7 13.6 7.6 6.1 11.0 7.0 3.36 3.94 7.60 1.43 6 15 1 8 61 58 7 48 19.0 7.0% 21.7 16.1% 20.4 20.0% 25.8 5.8% Players with similar stat lines: Alex Presley; A.J. Pollock; Jackie Bradley 16 9 0 5 .297 .316 .190 .280 .293 .342 .342 .320 2011 2012 2013 2014 87 121 126 369 531 520 44 69 70 .336 .347 .208 .307 2.04 3.73 -5.97 -0.69 103 56 794 258 2011 10.6 2012 10.7 2013 2014 13.5 7.6 8.3 9.2 1.95 1.99 1.11 8 5 6 28 49 38 18.2 10.1% 18.8 4.4% 21.1 4.1% 9 12 14 .231 .264 .270 .277 .258 .270 .240 .289 .299 -3.61 -1.19 -1.49 493 278 287 Chris Owings | ARI | Age: 22 | Rk: 26 (275) Yunel Escobar | TB | Age: 31 | Rk: 29 (334) Position: SS Position: SS Owings still needs to wrestle Arizona’s starting job from Didi Gregorius, but I think he succeeds. Gregorius isn’t a very good hitter and Owings is the real deal. He batted .330 at AAA last year, scoring 104 R with 12 HR, 20 SB, and 81 RBI, and even a fraction of that would make him one of the game’s best SS. We hear about prospects like Javier Baez all the time, but Owings is presenting us with a great “buy before the hype” opportunity if you’re smart enough to pounce. Essentially, Escobar is Jhonny Peralta with a little less power and no (known) PED history. He’s a career .278 hitter who’s fallen into the .250s in each of the last 2 seasons, but he’ll combine for 110-120 R and RBI. That’s not a very good total, but your remaining options are guys like Jose Iglesias, Ruben Tejada, and Logan Forsythe. Players with similar stat lines: Grant Green; Howie Kendrick; Dustin Ackley 2011 2012 2013 2014 Players with similar stat lines: Gordon Beckham; Juan Uribe; Andy Dirks 20 125 61 475 5 58 0 10 5 46 2 12 .291 .270 .272 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 133 145 153 153 590 608 578 580 77 58 61 59 11 9 9 9 48 51 56 57 3 5 4 2 .290 .253 .256 .260 .296 .285 .272 .280 2011 2012 2013 16.4 2014 16.0 9.8 5.3 1.62 0.62 24.4 21.0 0.0% 5.7% .356 .307 -6.69 -1.24 935 275 2011 2012 2013 2014 11.9 11.5 12.6 12.2 10.3 5.8 9.9 9.0 2.32 2.25 1.97 2.80 18.2 18.7 19.5 17.9 10.0% 7.4% 7.6% 9.4% .316 .273 .281 .278 0.22 -2.33 -1.27 -2.55 188 366 285 334 Jordy Mercer | PIT | Age: 27 | Rk: 27 (285) Mike Aviles | CLE | Age: 33 | Rk: 30 (377) Position: 2B/SS Position: 2B/3B/SS Mercer took over Pittsburgh’s starting shortstop job late last season, but he’ll still have 2B eligibility in almost all formats after starting 20 games there in 2013. At 6’3, 205 lbs, Mercer has a pretty large frame that could fill out over the next few years, so a 15-20 HR season isn’t entirely out of the question. If he can drop his strikeout rate to 14-15%, he’ll look much more attractive, but I fully endorse Mercer as a “Name to Know” for 2014. A bench player for the Indians, Aviles has actually seen a power boost in recent seasons with 22 HR in the last 2 years combined. He hits for a low average and doesn’t walk, driving his value even lower in OBP leagues, and he has no true path to playing time unless the Indians decide to trade Asdrubal Cabrera. That’s unlikely as the team is coming off a season in which they made the playoffs, but then again Aviles would be a serviceable stopgap between Cabrera and top prospect Francisco Lindor. Players with similar stat lines: Derek Jeter; Marco Scutaro; Daniel Nava 2011 2012 2013 2014 Players with similar stat lines: Jesus Guzman; Alex Avila; Brandon Crawford 42 103 137 68 365 576 7 33 68 1 8 10 5 27 37 0 3 2 .210 .285 .280 .231 .300 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 91 136 124 127 309 546 394 404 31 57 54 50 7 13 9 11 39 60 46 47 14 14 8 2 .255 .250 .252 .250 .236 .250 .247 .250 2011 2012 20.6 2013 17.0 2014 15.6 5.9 6.0 7.1 1.53 1.54 0.99 22.4 22.8 23.1 6.7% 9.9% 6.2% .250 .330 .321 -7.42 -3.12 -1.45 1140 435 285 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.2 14.1 10.4 14.1 4.2 4.2 3.8 4.7 0.98 1.04 1.17 1.37 15.7 19.3 19.8 15.7 6.8% 7.5% 7.4% 9.8% .276 .269 .257 .267 -2.73 -0.83 -1.63 -3.34 395 254 302 377 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 60 | Baseball Professor Pedro Florimon | MIN | Age: 27 | Rk: 31 (396) Maicer Izturis | TOR | Age: 33 | Rk: 34 (449) Position: SS Position: 2B/3B/SS As far as SS with career .601 OPSs go, Florimon is great. Last year he actually combined for 24 HR and SB, but his .221 average prevented that category juice from ranking higher than 26th. The HR and SB are legit, but so is the BA, and not in a good way. Players with similar stat lines: Adeiny Hechavarria; Nate McLouth; Jemile Weeks 2011 2012 2013 2014 Izturis stole 17 bases in 2012, and a repeat of that performance is his best path back to fantasy relevance. He always seems to get nearly 400 PA through his various eligibilities, and he actually managed to rank 25th among SS in 2011 when he racked up a career-best 494 PA. Players with similar stat lines: Didi Gregorius; Skip Schumaker; Eric Sogard 4 43 134 107 10 150 446 405 1 16 44 47 0 1 9 7 2 10 44 40 0 3 15 16 0.125 0.219 0.221 0.23 0.243 0.251 0.249 0.23 2011 2012 2013 2014 122 100 107 98 494 319 399 372 51 35 33 39 5 2 5 4 38 20 32 34 9 17 1 10 .276 .256 .236 .250 .270 .249 .304 .280 2011 60 2012 20 2013 25.8 2014 24.2 10 6.7 7.4 7.2 1 2.65 1.55 3.56 50 20 23.2 17.7 0 0.043 0.108 0.147 0.5 0.274 0.284 0.294 -7.3 -6.75 -2.47 -3.71 1207 1068 370 396 2011 13.2 2012 11.9 2013 9.5 2014 11.3 6.7 7.8 6.8 7.3 1.03 1.59 2.04 0.92 23.0 22.9 22.5 20.3 3.4% 2.7% 6.0% 3.2% .311 .289 .249 .274 -1.96 -3.82 -4.73 -4.50 326 504 616 449 Jose Iglesias | DET | Age: 24 | Rk: 32 (405) Ruben Tejada | NYM | Age: 24 | Rk: 35 (457) Position: 3B/SS Position: SS A Gold Glove-caliber SS who retains 3B eligibility from his time with the Red Sox, Iglesias won’t come anywhere near his .303 BA last season. Our line doesn’t give him much credit for his power or speed -- he could steal 5-10 bases -- but Iglesias is as bad with the bat as he’s great with the glove. We’re well into the guys who can’t hit but have starting jobs, so it’s impossible not to rank them. Tejada didn’t even homer last year, so you could argue our projected 3 long balls -- which would be a new career high! -- is overly optimistic. On the plus side, Tejada batted .289 across 501 PA in 2012, which was good enough for 31st among all SS. Players with similar stat lines: Adeiny Hechavarria; Pedro Florimon; Drew Stubbs Players with similar stat lines: Darwin Barney; Juan Lagares; Craig Gentry 2011 2012 2013 2014 10 25 109 152 6 77 382 572 3 5 39 66 0 1 3 5 0 2 29 40 0 1 5 9 .333 .118 .303 .240 .338 .166 .240 .240 2011 2012 2013 2014 96 114 57 138 376 501 227 524 31 53 20 50 0 1 0 3 36 25 10 38 5 4 2 2 .284 .289 .202 .250 .284 .318 .257 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 33.3 20.8 15.7 13.5 0.0 5.2 3.9 5.2 3.00 2.31 2.21 1.55 25.0 15.7 18.0 21.9 0.0% 7.7% 4.2% 3.7% .500 .137 .356 .267 -7.17 -2.60 -3.81 1177 385 405 2011 2012 2013 2014 13.3 14.6 10.6 11.8 9.3 5.4 6.6 6.9 1.51 1.31 1.37 1.05 25.7 30.0 19.2 19.8 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 1.8% .331 .339 .228 .284 -3.61 -3.17 -6.87 -4.64 492 434 999 457 Brandon Crawford | SF | Age: 27 | Rk: 33 (429) Adeiny Hechavarria | MIA | Age: 25 | Rk: 36 (462) Position: SS Position: SS Crawford has never had much of a stick, but he did jump up to 31st among SS last year thanks to a moderately surprising 9 HR. Expecting more than what Crawford did last year is unreasonable, but if you’re surveying SS in the 30s you’re either in a very deep league or looking for (very) unlikely production. Even in the minors, Hechavarria struggled to bat .250, so there’s little chance he improves now that he’s an MLB regular. Worth -1.9 WAR last year, he actually cost the Marlins 2 wins compared to a typical replacement player, and replacement players are assumed to be terrible! Players with similar stat lines: Darwin Barney; Josh Phegley; Hank Conger Players with similar stat lines: Pedro Florimon; Jose Iglesias; Hank Conger 2011 2012 2013 2014 66 143 149 145 220 476 550 550 22 44 52 48 3 4 9 8 21 45 43 42 1 1 1 2 .204 .248 .248 .250 .222 .240 .243 .240 2011 2012 2013 2014 41 148 141 137 578 536 10 30 44 2 3 5 15 42 43 0 11 8 .254 .227 .240 .251 .242 .240 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.1 20.0 17.5 18.5 10.5 6.9 7.6 8.5 1.47 1.57 1.55 0.83 14.0 22.7 18.9 19.1 5.3% 3.9% 7.0% 4.7% .228 .307 .290 .294 -6.13 -4.11 -2.81 -4.18 869 533 401 429 2011 2012 23.4 2013 16.6 2014 16.4 2.9 5.2 5.6 1.55 1.86 1.45 21.3 20.4 22.4 6.9% 2.4% 3.9% .323 .270 .277 -6.65 -4.37 -4.74 1057 567 462 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 61 Eric Sogard | OAK | Age: 28 | Rk: 37 (474) Joaquin Arias | SF | Age: 29 | Rk: 40 (564) Position: 2B/SS Position: 2B/3B/SS Sogard made the most of his skills last year, pushing him to 29th among SS, but that’s pretty much his ceiling…or is it? At A+ ball in 2008, Sogard cobbled together this incredible line: 622 PA, 97 R, 10 HR, 87 RBI, 16 SB, .308 BA. Dorky-looking utility infielder or All-Star in disguise? Dorky-looking utility infielder. When you’re Brandon Crawford’s backup, you know you’re not very good. Arias comes in at the very bottom of our 2014 SS rankings because he could combine for double-digit HR and SB while batting .270 across 250-350 PA. At a position not known for its offensive prowess, I somehow had something potentially intelligent to say about 40 of the lightest-hitting, feeble-batted slappers (they’re not even sluggers) that Major League Baseball has to offer. You’re welcome. Players with similar stat lines: Franklin Gutierrez; Matt Diaz; Daric Barton Players with similar stat lines: Kevin Frandsen; Moises Sierra; Conor Gillaspie 2011 2012 2013 2014 27 37 130 76 74 108 410 287 7 8 45 31 2 2 2 4 4 7 35 27 0 2 10 9 .200 .167 .266 .260 .222 .274 .270 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 112 102 67 344 236 255 30 17 24 5 1 3 34 19 25 5 1 2 .270 .271 .260 .275 .276 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.6 15.7 12.4 12.2 5.4 4.6 6.6 7.7 0.83 1.11 0.89 1.60 18.5 26.3 24.8 22.8 8.3% 7.1% 1.6% 6.1% .218 .181 .301 .283 -7.02 -7.46 -2.66 -4.96 1147 1147 391 474 2011 2012 12.8 2013 14.0 2014 13.7 3.8 1.7 3.9 1.48 1.85 1.07 21.9 20.6 18.6 5.7% 1.9% 3.8% .295 .311 .291 -4.04 -5.55 -6.18 527 715 564 Logan Forsythe | TB | Age: 27 | Rk: 38 (485) Position: 2B/3B/SS/OF The Rays newest Swiss Army knife (but a cheaply made one), Forsythe will play almost everywhere. He had rare 4-position eligibility and could threaten double-digit HR if given enough PA, but the Rays are pretty set at every starting spot so it’ll take 1 or more injuries or Forsythe to find anything more than half-time play. Players with similar stat lines: Tim Federowicz; Cameron Maybin; Adrian Nieto 2011 2012 2013 2014 62 91 75 97 169 350 243 368 12 45 22 34 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.5 16.3 22.2 19.8 7.1 8.0 7.8 7.6 1.16 1.04 1.46 1.00 0 6 6 6 12 26 19 36 20.2 0.0% 28.7 6.7% 28.5 12.5% 19.8 5.9% 3 8 6 2 .213 .273 .214 .250 .240 .328 .293 .260 .269 .316 .255 .300 -6.68 -3.24 -5.24 -5.12 1079 437 678 485 Didi Gregorius | ARI | Age: 24 | Rk: 39 (490) Position: SS Gregorius could still move up the rankings if he beats out Chris Owings in spring training, but he’d probably only rise as far as 38.5. The all glove, no bat infielder took the Jose Iglesias route to passable numbers -- get really, really hot at the beginning so no one realizes how terrible you really are. Players with similar stat lines: Logan Schafer; Adrian Nieto; Derek Norris 2011 2012 2013 2014 8 103 79 21 404 300 1 47 38 0 7 5 2 28 36 0 0 3 .300 .252 .240 .184 .237 .240 2011 2012 23.8 2013 16.1 2014 18.3 0.0 9.2 6.7 3.33 0.89 0.90 13.3 21.0 16.7 0.0% 5.7% 5.2% .400 .290 .286 -7.59 -3.71 -5.19 1172 491 490 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 62 | Baseball Professor 2013: Outfield Year in Review Have you every asked yourself, “I wonder if Player X is better suited for a head-to-head league or roto league?” Well, today’s your lucky day! Behold the H2H vs. Roto quadrant, where you can quickly identify which league your favorite player stands out in. The criteria is simple: Consistent players on a weekly basis are more valuable in H2H leagues due to their weekly nature while roto leagues lend themselves to a more patient approach. However, in roto leagues you like to have players who contribute stats across the board, but you don’t care when they come. We rated some of last year’s best Outfielders on both consistency and statistical balance based on their 2013 performance (small sample size alert!) and plopped them on a chart. Take a look! Better in H2H More consistency Great Player Jay Bruce Adam Jones Alejandro De Aza Alex Rios Jayson Werth Brett Gardner Carlos Gomez Shane Victorino Andrew Justin Upton McCutchen Matt Holliday Mark Trumbo Will Venable Hunter Pence Alfonso Soriano Carlos Beltran Jacoby Ellsbury Jose Bautista Alex Gordon Less balance Mike Trout More balance Allen Craig Marlon Byrd Domonic Brown Michael Brantley Torii Hunter Michael Cuddyer Shin-Soo Choo Coco Crisp Carlos Gonzalez Bad Player Less Starling Marte consistency Better in Roto @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 63 Who's HR/FB Rate Over- or UnderPerformed Their Average FB Distance? 30.0% 25.0% HR/FB 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 240 250 260 270 280 290 Average FB Distance 300 310 320 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 64 | Baseball Professor If you find yourself wondering whether a certain player deserved to hit as high (or low) as he did last year, rather than look at his BABIP and try to decipher whether he was lucky or unlucky just reference the chart below. Our xBA calculation takes everything you need to know into account and spits out what each hitter should have hit. The chart is easy to read: If your player lands above the line then he was unlucky (lower BA than xBA), but if he’s below the line then he was lucky and could be due for regression. It’s as easy as that! BA vs. Expected BA, 2013 Season .360 Unlucky .340 .320 Expected Batting Average .300 .280 .260 .240 .220 Lucky .200 .200 .220 .240 .260 .280 .300 .320 .340 .360 Batting Average A Closer Look...Outfield Superlatives Superlative Biggest Risk Safest Bet Mid-Round Sleeper Late-Round Sleeper Don't Believe the Hype Post-Hype Sleeper Best Value Pick Player You Always Own Player You Never Own Round I'll Draft OF Better in Points Leagues Better in Roto Leagues Better in H2H Leagues Better in Keeper Leagues Matt Commins Matt Kemp Adam Jones Jayson Werth Alejandro De Aza Desmond Jennings Dexter Fowler Jayson Heyward Alex Gordon Jacoby Ellsbury 1st Norichika Aoki Alex Gordon Billy Hamilton George Springer Eric Broutman Carlos Gonzalez Shin-Soo Choo Brandon Moss Avisail Garcia Yasiel Puig Jason Heyward Alex Gordon Shin Soo Choo Matt Kemp Anywhere Angel Pagan Alex Rios Brandon Moss Giancarlo Stanton Paul Beck Matt Kemp Mike Trout Jayson Werth George Springer Bryce Harper Carl Crawford Hunter Pence Alex Gordon Justin Upton 1st-2nd Nick Markakis Giancarlo Stanton Billy Hamilton George Springer Adam Nodiff Jacoby Ellsbury Mike Trout Curtis Granderson Colby Rasmus Christian Yelich Adam Eaton Starling Marte Shin-Soo Choo Jason Heyward 5th-10th Jose Bautista Carlos Gomez Matt Holliday Mike Trout Jake Devereaux Josh Hamilton Mike Trout Billy Hamilton Avisail Garcia Dominic Brown Josh Reddick Shane Victorino Alex Gordon Matt Kemp 5th Yoenis Cespedes Yasiel Puig Matt Holliday Bryce Harper @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 65 Outfield 2014 Preview Jake Devereaux’s Dynasty / Keeper League Watch List Rk Prospect Team Age 1 Byron Buxton MIN 20 2 Oscar Taveras STL 22 I feel like I have been hearing about this guy forever but he will likely finally be up with Mid 2014 the Cardinals in the second half of 2014. Taveras is one of the safest bets on this list to be an all-star and could hit .300 and 30HR for many years in a row during his prime. 22 Polanco has been on a war path since the beginning of last season and has seen his prospect star rise through the roof. He also dominated winter ball over the last few Mid 2014 months and is a true threat to develop into a 30HR-30SB outfielder. He could see time in RF for the Pirates as soon as June. 23 Any guy who can win you a fantasy category by himself deserves a very high ranking. Early 2014 Hamilton’s stolen base floor could still be league best in that category and his ceiling could be a 100R/100SB combo. He is worth all of the risk associated with his poor OBP. High K rates may scare a lot of folks away from Springer who nearly went 40/40 last Mid 2014 year in the minors. If he can develop some plate discipline at the MLB level springer could become a top 20 outfielder capable of 25/25 seasons. 3 Gregory Polanco 4 Billy Hamilton PIT CIN 5 George Springer HOU 24 6 Clint Frazier CLE 19 ETA Comments Mike Trout 2.0 is a strong possibility for the only guy on any list who is a true 70 grade Late 2014 player. There isn’t anything that Buxton can’t do. Please plan accordingly. 2017 7 David Dahl COL 20 2016 8 Jorge Soler CHC 22 2015 9 Raimel Tapia COL 20 2017 10 Joc Pederson LAD 22 One of the youngest guys on this list Frazier has insane bat speed and a quickness on the base paths. Playing in CF right now Frazier could develop in to Mike Trout light with less speed and slightly worst average. His small frame certainly doesn’t lack strength. Like Singleton, Dahl had a season that he would just as soon like to forget in 2013. One of the few guys in the minors with the talent to contribute in all 5 categories Dahl is closer to the player who slashed .379/.423/.625 in 2012 than the prima donna with character issues. 2013 should have been a big year for Soler but it was cut short by his broken leg and his suspension for trying to his someone with a bat. He has a ton of talent but he is at risk for not putting it all together. Soler still possesses the prototypical RF profile with great arm and 25+HR power. The 20 year old Dominican stud saw his stock rise in a big way last year as he slashed .357/399/.562 at Grand Junction as a 19 year old. Scouts rave about his pure hitting ability. He has the potential to develop into a stud corner outfielder for the Rockies. Pederson doesn’t have a ton of projection left but what he is now is pretty good. Late 2014 Though weak against lefties Pederson projects as a .260 hitter with 20/20 potential. I will take that any day. Top 60 Rankings / Auction ($) Values Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Player Name Mike Trout Ryan Braun Andrew McCutchen Carlos Gonzalez Adam Jones Jacoby Ellsbury Shin-Soo Choo Carlos Gomez Yasiel Puig Alex Rios Jay Bruce Bryce Harper Carlos Beltran Matt Holliday Jayson Werth Allen Craig Yoenis Cespedes Hunter Pence Giancarlo Stanton Justin Upton $ Value $45 $35 $35 $32 $33 $30 $24 $23 $22 $22 $22 $18 $18 $18 $17 $16 $16 $16 $15 $15 Rank 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Player Name Billy Hamilton Matt Kemp Desmond Jennings Wil Myers Jose Bautista Alex Gordon Jason Heyward Mark Trumbo Starling Marte Curtis Granderson Michael Brantley Josh Hamilton Brett Gardner Michael Cuddyer Adam Eaton Shane Victorino Dexter Fowler Josh Willingham Leonys Martin Martin Prado $ Value $14 $13 $13 $13 $13 $12 $12 $11 $11 $10 $10 $10 $9 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 Rank 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 Player Name Kole Calhoun Torii Hunter Nick Markakis Austin Jackson Christian Yelich Khris Davis Alfonso Soriano Marlon Byrd Avisail Garcia Michael Bourn Angel Pagan Carl Crawford Denard Span Norichika Aoki Domonic Brown Alejandro De Aza Oswaldo Arcia Melky Cabrera Coco Crisp Nick Swisher @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com $ Value $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $6 $6 $5 $4 $4 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 Facebook 66 | Baseball Professor Mike Trout | LAA | Age: 22 | Rk: 1 (1) Carlos Gonzalez | COL | Age: 28 | Rk: 4 (8) Position: OF Position: OF Trout finished 2nd in our 2013 end-of-season rankings, but it’s back to number! He’s a 5-category contributor (or more if you’re in a non-standard league), and the guy has virtually zero weaknesses. As he bulks up there’s a chance he loses his elite speed and becomes a 35 HR, 25-30 SB guy, but right now he’s firing on all cylinders in search of his first career MVP season. How many guys with 2 10+ WAR seasons can say they haven’t won an MVP? In truth, we shouldn’t be debating Trout v. Miguel Cabrera. Enjoy both! We keep drafting Gonzalez as a 1st-round player in fantasy, yet he’s barely ranked in the top 10 among OF in recent seasons (and 17th last year). That’s a little deceptive, though. Gonzalez compiles those numbers in about 130-140 games, leaving you 20-30 games worth of free agent OF that can still accrue stats, bumping your CarGo+Field slot to 1st-round production. His per-game talent is undeniable. As long as you draft him knowing you need to target a legitimate bench OF, then you’re A-OK. Players with similar stat lines: Andrew McCutchen; Ryan Braun; Joey Votto 2011 2012 2013 2014 40 139 157 160 135 639 716 729 20 129 109 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.2 21.8 19.0 17.8 6.7 10.5 15.4 15.4 0.97 1.35 1.16 1.17 5 30 27 33 16 83 97 94 20.7 13.5% 22.6 21.6% 23.0 16.5% 22.7 21.1% Players with similar stat lines: David Wright; Ryan Braun; Hanley Ramirez 4 49 33 34 .220 .326 .323 .330 .270 .320 .327 .320 2011 2012 2013 2014 127 135 110 132 542 579 436 574 92 89 72 85 .247 .383 .376 .354 -5.43 11.38 10.71 12.88 741 1 2 1 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.4 19.9 27.1 22.3 8.9 9.7 9.4 8.9 1.44 1.66 0.94 1.27 26 22 26 27 92 85 70 88 18.0 20.8% 21.7 18.8% 21.6 23.9% 20.7 21.9% 20 20 21 24 .295 .303 .302 .300 .273 .284 .265 .280 .326 .352 .368 .342 5.72 5.06 4.84 6.89 27 28 37 8 Ryan Braun | MIL | Age: 30 | Rk: 2 (3) Adam Jones | BAL | Age: 28 | Rk: 5 (9) Position: OF Position: OF I can’t tell you how many times I’ve had people ask me, “Do you think Braun is a good pick in the late 1st or early 2nd?” By our rank (3rd overall), clearly we think he is. I understand the PED concerns, but let’s be real here, folks. Even if we assume Braun has always been on the stuff, he used to be a .315/30/30 or even .330/40/30 guy with about 220+ R and RBI combined. That’s not entirely PEDs. I’ll concede Andrew McCutchen over Braun if you want a safer pick, but how could you take Carlos Gonzalez over Braun? Players with similar stat lines: Carlos Gonzalez; Andrew McCutchen; Freddie Freeman 2011 2012 2013 2014 150 154 61 152 629 677 253 661 109 108 30 95 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.8 18.9 22.1 18.5 9.2 9.3 10.7 10.6 1.11 1.14 1.60 1.31 33 41 9 27 111 112 38 100 20.9 18.8% 18.4 22.8% 15.9 16.4% 18.7 17.9% Jones spits in the face of everyone, like myself, that thinks you need to have good plate discipline and patience to be a consistently great hitter. For the past 2 years, Jones has been a .285 hitter with 30+ HR and 100 R and great RBI production despite some pretty low 3.5-4.5% walk rates. The HR power and RBI production are new additions in the last 2 years, but Jones has always been a .285 hitter despite those less-than-exciting walk rates. In his case, it’s time to trust the production rather than the peripherals. Players with similar stat lines: Bryce Harper; Edwin Encarnacion; Carlos Beltran 33 30 4 28 .332 .319 .298 .300 .333 .306 .265 .310 2011 2012 2013 2014 151 162 160 158 618 697 689 687 68 103 100 98 .350 .346 .360 .332 10.86 10.90 -2.55 8.69 4 2 379 3 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.3 18.1 19.7 17.9 4.7 4.9 3.6 4.5 1.50 1.41 1.51 1.47 25 32 33 31 83 82 108 94 17.6 16.7% 21.5 18.8% 19.7 19.9% 19.8 19.5% 12 16 14 13 .280 .287 .285 .280 .274 .316 .301 .300 .304 .313 .314 .305 3.04 5.79 7.69 6.55 72 19 8 9 Andrew McCutchen | PIT | Age: 27 | Rk: 3 (4) Jacoby Ellsbury | NYY | Age: 30 | Rk: 6 (10) Position: OF Position: OF I didn’t think McCutchen had this kind of fantasy potential, not when I shipped him out for Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Josh Willingham for a 2011 playoff push. I don’t necessarily regret the trade (it worked as intended and Lee is still elite), but man, would I love to have Cutch. He’s been a top 3 OF for the past 2 years, and the pecking order atop the position is pretty well solidified at this point: Mike Trout towers above all, then Ryan Braun and McCutchen in either order, and then the rest. Ellsbury is maddening to project because there are so many unknowns. Will he stay healthy? Will Yankee Stadium inflate his HR total? Probably, but by how much? Overlaying his 2013 batted balls at Fenway onto Yankee Stadium, we see that Ellsbury would have hit 5 extra HR last year. We assumed pretty good health (640 PA from a leadoff hitter for a good offense assumes some missed games) and tacked those 5 HR onto his total. I don’t feel comfortable with Tacoby as borderline 1st-round pick, but it’s where he ranked last year. Players with similar stat lines: Carlos Gonzalez; Joey Votto; Ryan Braun 2011 2012 2013 2014 158 157 157 158 678 673 674 704 87 107 97 91 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.6 19.6 15.0 14.8 13.1 10.4 11.6 9.8 0.92 1.28 1.17 1.14 23 31 21 25 89 96 84 91 20.0 12.2% 21.9 19.4% 24.5 12.4% 22.5 14.1% Players with similar stat lines: Jose Reyes; Jose Altuve; Jean Segura 23 20 27 23 .259 .327 .317 .320 .279 .303 .309 .300 2011 2012 2013 2014 158 74 134 140 732 323 636 640 119 43 92 94 32 4 9 14 105 26 53 53 39 14 52 50 .321 .271 .298 .290 .326 .263 .264 .290 .291 .375 .353 .341 3.94 8.54 7.91 8.50 51 5 7 4 2011 2012 2013 2014 13.4 13.3 14.5 13.9 7.1 5.9 7.4 7.5 1.26 1.42 1.80 1.52 22.9 20.3 21.0 21.5 16.7% 4.7% 6.6% 9.3% .336 .304 .341 .318 11.39 -3.00 6.47 6.13 3 421 14 10 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 67 Shin-Soo Choo | TEX | Age: 31 | Rk: 7 (17) Alex Rios | TEX | Age: 33 | Rk: 10 (25) Position: OF Position: OF After ranking 27th among OF in 2012 and 16th last year, we’re bumping Choo up to 7th for 2014. He’s a .285/20/20 guy, and he’s proven that time and time again, but I think he gets that RBI total back up now that he’s out of the NL (with the pitcher batting in front of him) and leading off for a fairly deep offense. The “experts” at FantasyPros have Choo as the 14th-best OF with only 1 of their 20+ rankers putting Choo as high as us, and I think that somehow makes him a great value on draft day. Once Rios joined the Rangers, he hit the ground running -- literally. In just 47 games with Texas, Rios stole 16 bases, a rate of 53 SB per 156 games (the amount he actually played). I think people are scared of Rios because he’s not consistent in a conventional way. When you draft him, you don’t know if you’re going to get 25 HR and 23 SB (2012) or 18 HR and 42 SB (2013), but you do know that you’re going to get valuable production. The fact that about 25% of the “experts” on FantasyPros have Rios ranked outside the top 20 OF is ridiculous. Players with similar stat lines: Aaron Hill; Yasiel Puig; Daniel Murphy 2011 2012 2013 2014 85 155 154 155 358 686 712 723 37 88 107 100 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.8 21.9 18.7 19.4 10.1 10.6 15.7 13.4 1.39 1.83 1.68 1.65 8 16 21 22 36 67 54 69 22.4 10.4% 23.3 13.2% 21.1 16.4% 22.1 17.0% Players with similar stat lines: Jason Kipnis; Hanley Ramirez; Ian Desmond 12 21 20 21 .259 .283 .285 .290 .270 .272 .290 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 145 157 156 154 570 640 662 654 64 93 83 83 .317 .353 .338 .328 -2.61 3.15 5.03 5.53 384 79 34 17 2011 2012 2013 2014 11.9 14.4 16.3 14.7 4.7 4.1 6.2 6.1 1.08 1.05 1.25 0.86 13 25 18 18 44 91 81 88 18.4 7.0% 21.8 12.6% 21.4 10.1% 19.1 8.4% 11 23 42 27 .227 .304 .278 .280 .244 .293 .275 .270 .237 .323 .311 .295 -2.10 6.26 6.41 5.06 341 16 16 25 Carlos Gomez | MIL | Age: 28 | Rk: 8 (22) Jay Bruce | CIN | Age: 27 | Rk: 11 (26) Position: OF Position: OF A legitimate borderline 1st round pick, Gomez is for real. He ranked 6th among all OF last year, and his drop to 8th is more because of Shin-Soo Choo going to Texas and Ryan Braun returning than anything else. With plenty of counting category juice (HR, SB) and his biggest weakness in BA, Gomez is an ideal player for H2H formats. Still, a player with this much talent plays well in any league. I wish Gomez batted a little higher in Milwaukee’s lineup, but as their 6th hitter it’ll be tough to rack up many more R or RBI. Players with similar stat lines: Starling Marte; Jason Kipnis; Hanley Ramirez 2011 2012 2013 2014 94 137 147 152 258 452 590 629 37 72 80 83 2011 2012 2013 2014 24.8 21.7 24.7 22.1 5.8 4.4 6.3 7.6 1.01 0.93 1.05 0.99 8 19 24 25 24 51 73 78 11.9 11.4% 16.6 14.3% 21.3 16.4% 18.4 14.9% I find it funny that people constantly use the “Power’s at a premium...” line these days, but no one follows that up with “…so I’m going to target Bruce.” What more for the guy have to do? He’s ranked 21st, 15th, and 15th among OF in the last 3 years, consistently putting up 30 HR, 90 R, 100 RBI production with a handful of SB tossed in. He’s definitely no more than a .260 hitter without some luck, but Bruce has 40 HR power. I’ll admit that Bruce’s 2013 was a little underwhelming if you remove May and June, but he’s 30/100 in the bank. Players with similar stat lines: Chris Davis; Edwin Encarnacion; Jose Bautista 16 37 40 37 .225 .260 .284 .260 .181 .234 .267 .240 2011 2012 2013 2014 157 155 160 158 664 633 697 671 84 89 89 88 .273 .296 .344 .298 -3.28 2.62 6.61 5.18 453 93 13 22 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.8 24.5 26.5 25.6 10.7 9.8 9.0 10.1 0.78 0.80 0.93 0.84 32 34 30 36 97 99 109 98 16.8 16.0% 20.2 18.7% 23.9 17.1% 21.0 22.1% 8 9 7 7 .256 .252 .262 .270 .239 .260 .273 .260 .297 .283 .322 .299 3.59 3.83 5.08 5.04 60 51 33 26 Yasiel Puig | LAD | Age: 23 | Rk: 9 (24) Bryce Harper | WAS | Age: 21 | Rk: 12 (28) Position: OF Position: OF You know the deal with Puig’s 2013 season: His historic start was so ridiculously good that all anyone would ever do was talk about his .400 BABIP, and because there clearly was a great deal of luck involved, we couldn’t tell whether Puig was just really good or truly elite. Because we believe in his walk and strikeout rates, we have Puig for a .285 season once the BABIP corrects itself, but what remains to be seen is whether Puig can hit 25+ HR. His 21.8% HR/ FB rate indicates great strength, but his GB% was over 50.0 Players with similar stat lines: Matt Kemp; Bryce Harper; Hanley Ramirez 2011 2012 2013 2014 104 146 432 625 66 91 2011 2012 2013 22.5 2014 22.7 8.3 10.4 1.63 1.64 19 27 42 73 19.1 21.8% 19.1 24.0% We bought into the Harper hype last year, putting the Nats’ phenom in our top 20 overall. We backed off a little this year with definite injury concerns creeping into our minds, but the promise (and mostly the power) he showed in 2012 is going to appear much sooner than later. Despite playing just 118 games last year and falling in the ranks due to depressed counting stats, Harper lowered his K% and increased his BB%, FB%, and HR/FB rate. Will he go off for 25-35 SB? Probably not, but you’ll want him for his power. Players with similar stat lines: Jayson Werth; Yoenis Cespedes; Hunter Pence 11 18 .319 .280 .292 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 139 118 147 597 497 655 98 71 86 .383 .324 2.13 5.07 111 24 2011 2012 20.1 2013 18.9 2014 18.6 9.4 12.3 12.2 1.35 1.40 1.27 22 20 26 59 58 89 22.5 16.2% 19.9 18.0% 19.0 17.6% 18 11 13 .270 .274 .280 .291 .278 .280 .310 .306 .310 2.98 1.84 4.97 82 126 28 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 68 | Baseball Professor Carlos Beltran | NYY | Age: 37 | Rk: 13 (32) Allen Craig | STL | Age: 29 | Rk: 16 (44) Position: OF Position: 1B/OF Once our top 200 countdown reached the top 50, one of our Twitter followers asked us if we’d done Beltran yet. Clearly he’d searched the site and found it confusing (intriguing?) that Beltran wasn’t ranked 50-200. Beltran has finished 22nd, 11th, and 20th among OF in the last 3 years, and we put him right back there again. He’s not a good defender anymore, but he’s has averaged 26.7 HR per 150 games in the last 3 years, and (should he stay healthy), he’ll top that in NY. For his career, Craig has batted .283 with the bases empty (738 PA) and .251 with men on first base (255 PA), but he’s batted .394 with RISP (407 PA). That .394 average is far and away the best in the league among the 178 players with at least 400 such PA over that span. Miguel Cabrera is number 2 at .366, nearly 30 points back. However, Craig hit just 13 HR thanks to his fly ball rate dipping under 30%. It’s likely that Craig regresses towards the mean in both these areas and we see a player with a bit more power in 2014. Players with similar stat lines: David Ortiz; Albert Pujols; Troy Tulowitzki 2011 2012 2013 2014 142 151 145 142 598 619 600 633 78 83 79 82 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.7 20.0 15.0 15.0 11.9 10.5 6.3 11.4 1.01 1.11 0.86 0.97 22 32 24 30 84 97 84 91 21.1 12.9% 20.4 19.9% 23.9 12.5% 22.0 17.6% Players with similar stat lines: Buster Posey; Robinson Cano; Adrian Gonzalez 4 13 2 5 .300 .269 .296 .290 .283 .281 .294 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 75 119 134 144 219 514 563 600 33 76 71 77 .324 .291 .314 .293 3.29 4.36 3.82 4.79 64 40 52 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.3 17.3 17.8 17.5 6.8 7.2 7.1 7.0 1.18 1.32 1.60 1.39 11 22 13 23 40 92 97 87 19.1 18.3% 22.7 17.1% 26.9 11.2% 24.4 17.1% 5 2 2 2 .315 .307 .315 .310 .288 .301 .313 .300 .344 .334 .368 .337 -2.03 3.02 3.39 4.22 334 81 64 44 Matt Holliday | STL | Age: 34 | Rk: 14 (33) Yoenis Cespedes | OAK | Age: 28 | Rk: 17 (45) Position: OF Position: OF Holliday is unbelievably boring, but he’s absolute money in the bank. Like his former teammate, Carlos Beltran, Holliday’s defense has eroded later in his career, but he’s still a force in the middle of an MLB lineup. He’s accrued 600+ PA in 7 of the last 8 years (516 PA in the other) and is always between 22-28 HR. He’s pretty much a guaranteed .290/22/100 (with a little wiggle room, see our projection) and that sits him squarely in the 10-15 range among OF. Talk about a polarizing player. Cespedes flopped in year 2, maintaining the HR power from his rookie season but stealing only 7 bases and batting a paltry .240. His K% got worse, his BB% went down, and once again he was the king of infield flies (correction: Justin Upton was king last year). Can he get the BA back up and put everything together for a potential top 10 season or are we destined for another top 40 season? Oakland’s offense is good and Cespedes will tally 80+ R/RBI with 25+ HR power, but his BA and SB ultimately will drive his value. Players with similar stat lines: Freddie Freeman; Robinson Cano; Adrian Gonzalez 2011 2012 2013 2014 124 157 141 146 516 688 602 630 83 95 103 89 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.0 19.2 14.3 15.4 11.6 10.9 11.5 11.6 1.37 1.32 1.36 1.14 22 27 22 23 75 102 94 94 20.6 18.5% 18.9 16.4% 20.8 15.0% 22.8 15.1% 2 4 6 3 .296 .295 .300 .300 .279 .277 .280 .280 .330 .337 .322 .316 2.63 4.91 5.67 4.78 79 32 25 33 Players with similar stat lines: Hunter Pence; Bryce Harper; Wil Myers 2011 2012 2013 2014 129 135 143 540 574 609 70 74 80 2011 2012 18.9 2013 23.9 2014 21.3 8.0 6.4 7.4 1.01 0.83 0.91 23 26 27 82 80 89 19.6 14.8% 16.7 14.4% 17.9 15.8% 16 7 13 .292 .240 .270 .264 .239 .250 .326 .274 .306 3.33 1.88 4.19 65 123 45 Jayson Werth | WAS | Age: 35 | Rk: 15 (39) Hunter Pence | SF | Age: 31 | Rk: 18 (46) Position: OF Position: OF Werth’s 2013 season is entirely repeatable. OK, so I don’t think his BA or his per-game production will be quite that good again, but it looks like he’s over his 2012 wrist injury and back to being a fantasy contributor. It’s easy to forget how great Werth used to be because he disappointed with a .232 BA in his 1st season with the Nats and missed half of 2012, but he’s good for 25 HR and 10-15 SB with solid numbers everywhere else. Pence brings the HR and RBI production every single season -- 22+ HR, 91+ RBI in 4 straight years -- but his SB and BA vary wildly. It’s that variation that’s caused his end-of-season ranks to fluctuate from 12th among OF in 2011 to 38th in 2012 to 5th last year, but the good news is that Pence’s most stable categories are the ones that are most important in fantasy: the power cats. You don’t get excited about drafting Pence (Jason Heyward or Justin Upton have more excitement/upside) but Pence won’t let you down. Players with similar stat lines: Bryce Harper; Hanley Ramirez; Hunter Pence 2011 2012 2013 2014 150 81 129 148 649 344 532 643 69 42 84 83 2011 2012 2013 2014 24.7 16.6 19.0 17.9 11.4 12.2 11.3 10.9 1.07 1.08 0.95 1.34 20 5 25 25 58 31 82 86 16.8 12.3% 18.9 5.3% 26.0 18.0% 21.4 17.5% Players with similar stat lines: Yoenis Cespedes; Alex Gordon; Wil Myers 19 8 10 12 .232 .300 .318 .290 .226 .241 .304 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 154 160 162 158 668 688 687 671 84 87 91 84 .286 .356 .358 .311 0.10 -2.65 5.53 4.56 196 392 26 39 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.6 21.1 16.7 17.6 8.4 8.1 7.6 7.9 1.67 1.60 1.31 1.49 22 24 27 24 97 104 99 90 17.9 14.7% 17.0 15.8% 17.2 14.6% 17.3 15.4% 8 5 22 14 .314 .253 .283 .270 .266 .258 .268 .260 .361 .290 .308 .298 5.23 2.50 6.89 4.15 32 101 10 46 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 69 Giancarlo Stanton | MIA | Age: 24 | Rk: 19 (47) Matt Kemp | LAD | Age: 29 | Rk: 22 (54) Position: OF Position: OF I’m going to take every opportunity to chip at Stanton’s fantasy value in 2014. The man looks like he was sculpted from solid marble and there’s almost no ceiling to his HR potential in the future, but right now he’s wasting away in Miami, surrounded by a team that combined to post nearly the same slugging percentage as Ichiro Suzuki. Opponents will pitch around Stanton at every turn, severely limiting his useful AB. The only way he tops 40 HR in our projected 620 PA is with a FB% over 40.0 and a HR/FB over 30.0. Players with similar stat lines: Chris Davis; Jay Bruce; Jose Bautista 2011 2012 2013 2014 150 123 116 146 601 501 504 620 79 75 62 78 2011 2012 2013 2014 27.6 28.5 27.8 27.4 11.6 9.2 14.7 13.7 1.18 0.87 1.13 0.94 34 37 24 39 87 86 62 91 16.3 24.8% 22.1 28.9% 18.2 21.8% 18.9 29.8% Kemp has tumbled from 2011’s 1st overall end-of-season rank and talks of 40/40 seasons (wait, it was 50/50!) to 22nd among all OF. Does he have the ability to put together a top 5 season? Of course. Would you be surprised if Kemp went .285/90/25/90/25? You shouldn’t be. Unfortunately, questions surrounding his health make projecting him nearly impossible. I doubt we’re looking at the next Grady Sizemore, but remember how precipitous his fall was? Kemp’s “expert” ranks range from 5-40, so the jury is out on him right now. Players with similar stat lines: Ian Desmond; Hanley Ramirez; Yasiel Puig 5 6 1 4 .262 .290 .249 .260 .246 .294 .232 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 161 106 73 127 689 449 290 566 115 74 35 71 .314 .344 .313 .288 3.22 4.11 0.19 4.12 67 43 198 47 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.1 22.9 26.2 23.0 10.7 8.9 7.6 8.3 0.90 1.24 1.15 1.57 39 23 6 25 126 69 33 76 23.2 21.4% 21.8 21.7% 25.3 9.1% 21.6 23.6% 40 9 9 18 .324 .303 .270 .280 .316 .304 .250 .300 .380 .354 .353 .324 12.85 2.50 -2.82 3.79 1 102 403 54 Justin Upton | ATL | Age: 26 | Rk: 20 (51) Desmond Jennings | TB | Age: 27 | Rk: 23 (57) Position: OF Position: OF Owning Upton takes frustration to a whole new level. One look at his declining offensive ranks -- 6th to 18th to 26th among OF over the last 3 years -- illustrates why. A player with this much talent who came up so young and performed well so quickly should be getting better, not worse. Upton is going to strike out a lot and post a sub-.280 BA because of it, but he’s a run-scoring machine with 2530 HR power. His consensus “expert” rank on FantasyPros is 13, ahead of Shin-Soo Choo and Alex Rios. Give me those 2 any day. Jennings slowly has been climing the OF ranks, but people are disappointed because they expected his ascension to stardom to happen much more quickly. We’re taking 1 last shot here and putting Jennings in our OF top 25, figuring that he busts out a little with his BA this season. We have him projected for .276 despite a current career-best of .259 (2011). While we think he’ll realize some of his potential at some point, admittedly, there isn’t a ton of statistical evidence supporting a BA breakout. His LD% and IFFB% are below average. Players with similar stat lines: Ben Zobrist; Jason Heyward; Kyle Seager 2011 2012 2013 2014 159 150 149 151 674 628 643 688 105 107 94 94 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.7 19.3 25.0 23.7 8.8 10.0 11.7 9.4 0.82 1.23 1.08 1.06 31 17 27 24 88 67 70 77 18.2 14.8% 20.6 11.0% 21.5 17.9% 20.3 14.7% Players with similar stat lines: Jason Kipnis; Shane Victorino; Dexter Fowler 21 18 8 12 .289 .280 .263 .280 .251 .257 .266 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 63 132 139 142 287 563 602 588 44 85 82 86 .319 .327 .321 .327 6.73 3.62 3.52 4.00 20 59 62 51 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.6 21.3 19.1 19.0 10.8 8.2 10.6 10.2 1.34 1.10 1.31 1.24 10 13 14 15 25 47 54 67 17.6 15.6% 20.1 9.0% 17.1 9.5% 18.3 10.4% 20 31 20 30 .259 .246 .252 .280 .250 .230 .231 .230 .303 .298 .295 .316 -1.80 1.33 1.56 3.71 310 137 139 57 Billy Hamilton | CIN | Age: 23 | Rk: 21 (52) Wil Myers | TB | Age: 23 | Rk: 24 (58) Position: OF Position: OF Ranking Hamilton takes the “how do we rank for Michael Bourn’s SB potential?” to the nth degree. This might seem overly aggressive, but other than short-changing our projection intentionally to drop him in the rankings, what are we supposed to do? Hamilton bats leadoff for a good MLB offense and has generational speed. Honestly, our projected 81 SB might be too conservative! People worry that Hamilton won’t hit enough to stay in the leadoff slot, but he walks 7-10% of the time and makes enough contact to put his legs to good use. Myers is going to be a very good slugger, but I’m still a little unsure what his ultimate ceiling is. He doesn’t have much speed and won’t develop into a perennial 10+ SB threat, which means his value comes down to his slugging potential. Like teammate Evan Longoria, I think Myers can become a .290/90/30/100 hitter, but he probably won’t do it right away. He was predominantly a ground ball hitter last year, and his 15.5% HR/FB rate doesn’t have a ton of room to grow in the Trop (see: Longoria’s career 16.3% mark). Players with similar stat lines: Everth Cabrera; Jean Segura; Ben Revere 2011 2012 2013 2014 Players with similar stat lines: Alex Gordon; Hunter Pence; Yoenis Cespedes 13 140 22 602 9 89 0 2 1 34 13 81 .368 .250 .523 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 88 150 373 640 50 82 2011 2012 2013 18.2 2014 17.1 9.1 7.8 3.50 3.50 35.7 35.7 0.0% 3.1% .467 .299 -5.53 3.86 711 52 2011 2012 2013 24.4 2014 22.7 8.8 9.7 1.36 1.36 13 22 53 90 20.2 15.5% 20.2 16.3% 5 10 .293 .280 .268 .280 .362 .325 -0.32 3.65 226 58 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 70 | Baseball Professor Jose Bautista | TOR | Age: 33 | Rk: 25 (59) Mark Trumbo | ARI | Age: 28 | Rk: 28 (67) Position: OF Position: 1B/OF Bautista’s consensus rank on FantasyPros is 11th among OF -- what?! At that spot we’d need a .265/95/35/100 season from Bautista, and that’s probably not happening. Health has become an issue, and Bautista’s HR/FB rate has declined for 3 straight seasons. Our ranking is a little depressed because we’re assuming he misses about 35 games this year, so if you think a 600-650 PA season is more appropriate, you can slot Bautista in between Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Upton. Now in Arizona, Trumbo should be a safe bet to post his best offensive season of his career. He’s an established 30 HR threat with a solid walk rate, but where he really hurts himself is in his inability to make contact. His strikeout rate and contact on pitches in the zone have gotten worse, and until he fixes these holes he will be stuck in the .230-.245 range. Trumbo should see a boost in power numbers for 2014, which means he could approach 40 HR in a park where the ball really carries. Players with similar stat lines: Jay Bruce; Josh Hamilton; Giancarlo Stanton 2011 2012 2013 2014 149 92 118 128 655 399 528 556 105 64 82 86 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.9 15.8 15.9 16.7 20.2 14.8 13.1 13.3 0.79 0.75 0.96 0.84 43 27 28 33 103 65 73 88 16.0 22.5% 13.6 20.0% 16.1 17.6% 15.4 20.8% Players with similar stat lines: Pedro Alvarez; Jay Bruce; Giancarlo Stanton 9 5 7 6 .302 .241 .259 .260 .274 .266 .251 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 149 144 159 155 573 586 678 658 65 66 85 83 .309 .215 .259 .247 8.11 0.16 2.96 3.64 11 198 77 59 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.9 26.1 27.1 25.1 4.4 6.1 8.0 9.1 1.19 1.13 1.24 1.79 29 32 34 36 87 95 100 97 15.9 17.9% 16.0 20.6% 17.0 20.9% 21.4 32.8% 9 4 5 4 .254 .268 .234 .250 .247 .243 .243 .240 .274 .316 .273 .268 2.14 2.62 3.51 3.26 98 94 63 67 Alex Gordon | KC | Age: 30 | Rk: 26 (63) Starling Marte | PIT | Age: 25 | Rk: 29 (72) Position: OF Position: OF If you’re looking for a reliable, balanced mid-round OF, then Gordon is your man. After breaking out in 2011 with a 7th-overall ranking among OF, Gordon has settled into the 25-30 range, which is where we find him once again. His R and RBI numbers are highly dependent upon where he bats in KC’s lineup -- they keep shuffling him between leadoff and the middle of the order -- but the overall R + RBI total will be around 160-170, and Gordon’s BA should settle in around .275. I love me some Marte! Even though we’re dropping him from his 2013 end-of-year rank, sliding him back from 21st to 30th, that’s only because we think he’s more in the Carlos Gomez mold (definitely not that good, but solid HR/RBI with a lower BA) and not a .280 hitter. There’s a good chance Marte sees a nice power breakout in the next year or 2 as his lanky frame fills out. His average HR distance last year was comparable to David Ortiz, Pedro Alvarez, and Jay Bruce, so is it crazy to think he can get a little better? Long term, buy. Players with similar stat lines: Wil Myers; Hunter Pence; Ben Zobrist 2011 2012 2013 2014 151 161 156 157 690 721 700 716 101 93 90 84 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.1 19.4 20.1 19.6 9.7 10.1 7.4 9.2 1.03 1.29 1.03 2.17 23 14 20 20 87 72 81 87 22.0 12.6% 25.0 8.5% 20.3 10.2% 25.8 18.0% Players with similar stat lines: Carlos Gomez; Jean Segura; Leonys Martin 17 10 11 12 .303 .294 .265 .270 .271 .267 .261 .270 .358 .356 .310 .314 6.02 2.90 3.37 3.44 23 87 65 63 2011 2012 2013 2014 47 135 150 182 566 640 18 83 85 2011 2012 27.5 2013 24.4 2014 23.1 4.4 4.4 4.8 2.32 1.85 2.04 5 12 20 17 35 48 18.4 17.9% 21.6 12.2% 20.9 18.4% 12 41 38 .257 .280 .260 .252 .276 .260 .333 .363 .305 -4.78 3.75 3.09 961 56 72 Jason Heyward | ATL | Age: 24 | Rk: 27 (66) Curtis Granderson | NYM | Age: 33 | Rk: 30 (88) Position: OF Position: OF Heyward is a player I’d love to own, but only at a discount. I know he played just 104 games last year, but he only tallied 38 RBI and displayed noticeable ground ball trends (again) with an abysmal IFFB%. I love his BB% and K%, but I don’t think Heyward is going to hit enough HR or steal enough bases to make up for the low BA and underwhelming RBI numbers. At best, he’s Jayson Werth. While I do like Werth, that’s not a ringing endorsement. Players with similar stat lines: Kyle Seager; Justin Upton; Ben Zobrist 2011 2012 2013 2014 128 158 104 144 456 651 440 625 50 93 67 88 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.4 23.3 16.6 17.6 11.2 8.9 10.9 10.9 1.63 1.20 1.25 0.97 14 27 14 25 42 82 38 73 13.1 13.9% 19.3 16.9% 21.4 13.0% 26.0 15.0% Granderson is a low-BA slugger moving to a much worse offensive environment, but does that mean he’s only a 20-25 HR hitter or a 30-35 HR hitter? Missing most of last year, that’s hard to say for sure. We do know that Granderson hits a lot of fly balls, though, so it’s possible he can reach or surpass 30 bombs due to sheer volume of flies. The top of the Mets lineup is actually pretty good (Daniel Murphy and David Wright are both offensive elites at their positions), so Granderson isn’t working alone. Players with similar stat lines: Hunter Pence; Alfonso Soriano; Nick Swisher 9 21 2 11 .227 .269 .254 .270 .202 .264 .269 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 156 160 61 141 691 684 245 613 136 102 31 84 .260 .319 .281 .293 -2.55 4.45 -1.38 3.35 376 38 289 66 2011 2012 2013 2014 24.5 28.5 28.2 28.5 12.3 11.0 11.0 10.4 0.71 0.75 0.77 0.75 41 43 7 24 119 106 15 87 18.2 20.5% 23.0 24.2% 22.5 11.3% 21.2 15.6% 25 10 8 16 .262 .232 .229 .240 .258 .272 .223 .260 .295 .260 .302 .298 9.42 4.82 -4.44 2.47 6 34 575 88 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 71 Michael Brantley | CLE | Age: 27 | Rk: 31 (91) Michael Cuddyer | COL | Age: 35 | Rk: 34 (96) Position: OF Position: 1B/OF Brantley broke out last year (at least as much as someone like Brantley can) with a .284 BA and 17 SB in 611 PA. Currently, I’m seeing him listed as the Indians number 5 hitter, where he spent about 1/3 of his time last year, so he should equal or top last season’s 73 RBI. It’ll be tough for him to really improve upon last year’s 10 HR because he hits so few fly balls, but the flip side of that is he could break out with an 18-20 HR season if his FB% goes up even a little. A low-risk player to watch, Brantley definitely has room to grow. It’s hard to imagine a season going any better for Cuddyer than last year. He posted a career-high .389 BABIP, which led to not only his first .300+ BA season, but also an NL batting title. It should be no surprise that Cuddyer was able to post monster numbers with half his games coming at Coors Field, where he managed a .356/.414/.582 slash. It’s tough to believe that he will replicate career highs across the board again in 2014, but the Coors Field effect is definitely a nice boost to his fantasy value. Players with similar stat lines: Chase Headley; Martin Prado; Kole Calhoun 2011 2012 2013 2014 Players with similar stat lines: Chase Utley; Marlon Byrd; Xander Bogaerts 114 149 151 150 496 609 611 602 63 63 66 70 7 6 10 12 46 60 73 78 13 12 17 15 .266 .288 .284 .290 .247 .292 .294 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 139 101 130 135 584 394 540 559 70 53 74 71 2011 15.3 2012 9.2 2013 11.0 2014 10.5 6.9 8.7 6.5 6.3 1.55 1.69 1.58 1.00 20.2 22.5 23.3 21.6 5.9% 4.2% 6.8% 6.3% .303 .310 .304 .312 -0.93 0.04 2.21 2.36 247 206 105 91 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.3 19.8 18.5 17.9 8.2 8.1 8.5 8.1 1.44 1.57 1.65 1.21 20 16 20 20 70 58 84 80 17.8 13.6% 20.4 18.2% 20.2 16.9% 23.4 14.9% 11 8 10 8 .284 .260 .331 .280 .273 .300 .309 .290 .312 .287 .382 .307 2.15 -0.94 5.09 2.26 96 261 32 96 Josh Hamilton | LAA | Age: 33 | Rk: 32 (92) Adam Eaton | CHW | Age: 25 | Rk: 35 (99) Position: OF Position: OF A 49th-overall rank among OF isn’t exactly what fantasy owners (or the Angels) expected out of Hamilton last season, but should we have? His K% rose drastically by the end of 2012, and he just seemed to have lost a step. His 12.7% HR/FB rate in 2013 is too low for a player as strong as Hamilton, and we expect something closer to his 18.3% career average, but even then we’re looking at a 25-30 HR OF with a bad BA and likely sub-par R totals. In order to acquire Eaton, the White Sox had to part with established closer Addison Reed and SP/LR Hector Santiago, who was fresh off a 3.56 ERA season. Because of what they had to give up (and also because Eaton is really good), he’s going to play. The center fielder has good speed and enough pop to hit double-digit HR at U.S. Cellular Field, and an everyday leadoff hitter in the AL is almost a guaranteed 80+ R. Eaton was supposed to break out in 2013 but instead got hurt. He’ll do it this year. Players with similar stat lines: Mike Napoli; Adam LaRoche; Josh Willingham 2011 2012 2013 2014 121 148 151 142 538 636 636 617 80 103 73 79 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.3 25.5 24.8 24.6 7.2 9.4 7.4 8.4 1.10 0.92 1.00 1.23 25 43 21 26 94 128 79 88 21.0 16.4% 21.3 25.6% 22.2 12.7% 23.0 20.0% Players with similar stat lines: Erick Aybar; Carl Crawford; Denard Span 8 7 4 4 .298 .285 .250 .260 .308 .296 .263 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 22 66 151 103 277 676 19 40 84 .317 .320 .303 .304 4.21 7.78 1.26 2.35 48 8 150 92 2011 2012 14.6 2013 15.9 2014 16.3 13.6 6.1 9.5 2.63 2.31 1.18 2 3 10 5 22 55 12.1 12.5% 18.6 6.1% 19.0 5.6% 2 5 22 .259 .252 .280 .263 .248 .280 .294 .294 .325 -6.40 -4.11 2.11 1037 536 99 Brett Gardner | NYY | Age: 30 | Rk: 33 (94) Shane Victorino | BOS | Age: 33 | Rk: 36 (100) Position: OF Position: OF Gardner ranked 31st in 2011 and 37th in 2013, which are right in line with his projected ranking this year. The “expert” consensus at FantasyPros has Gardner 43rd among OF, which I don’t totally understand. Gardner’s 35th rank last year resulted from just a 24 SB season, and he’s definitely better than that. Comparatively, our 43rd-ranked OF is Dexter Fowler, who hits for a similarly average BA and only a touch more power but almost certainly 20 fewer SB. Gardner is a nice mid-to-late round target. Players with similar stat lines: Jose Altuve; Jean Segura; Michael Bourn Victorino is a difficult player to project because we don’t even know what side of the plate he’s going to hit from! Last year the career switch hitter abandoned the left side of the plate in favor of hitting at Fenway’s Green Monster, so we need to take his career numbers to this point with a grain of salt. His plate discipline isn’t as good from the right side as Victorino Ks more and walks less, but he should post decent HR totals with the short left field porch. Batting near the top of an elite offense, he should score 80+ runs easily. Players with similar stat lines: Dexter Fowler; Christian Yelich; Alejandro De Aza 2011 2012 2013 2014 159 16 145 152 588 37 609 612 87 7 81 84 7 0 8 8 36 3 52 50 49 2 24 34 .259 .323 .273 .280 .248 .291 .242 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 132 154 122 135 586 666 532 615 95 72 82 87 2011 2012 2013 2014 15.8 18.9 20.9 18.8 10.2 13.5 8.5 9.5 1.85 1.50 1.17 1.38 19.4 37.5 23.3 22.3 6.3% 0.0% 5.7% 6.3% .303 .417 .342 .326 2.58 -7.01 2.05 2.33 81 1101 113 94 2011 2012 2013 2014 10.8 12.0 14.1 13.3 9.4 8.0 4.7 5.2 1.01 1.29 1.22 0.98 17 11 15 14 61 55 61 59 15.8 8.9% 17.8 6.0% 22.4 10.8% 18.3 7.1% 19 39 21 19 .279 .255 .294 .270 .242 .243 .281 .250 .292 .278 .321 .295 3.07 1.87 3.65 2.08 71 117 57 100 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 72 | Baseball Professor Dexter Fowler | HOU | Age: 28 | Rk: 37 (105) Torii Hunter | DET | Age: 38 | Rk: 40 (113) Position: OF Position: OF Fowler’s hot start, injury, and then slow finish last year are well-documented (summary: not surprising). The impact of his move from Colorado to Houston is also well-documented (summary: bad). But Fowler will be the everyday leadoff hitter (pending health) for an AL team, and that’s not all bad. He was on a great SB pace last year, setting a new career-high despite missing a large chunk of time, and anyone who’s owned Fowler before undoubtedly knows how many walks he draws. In OBP leagues, shoot Fowler up a couple spots. Players with similar stat lines: Shane Victorino; Christian Yelich; Ian Kinsler 2011 2012 2013 2014 125 143 119 141 563 530 492 605 84 72 71 84 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.1 24.2 21.3 22.8 12.1 12.8 13.2 13.1 1.24 1.17 1.23 0.95 5 13 12 13 45 53 42 60 21.4 4.1% 27.2 12.3% 23.4 11.3% 21.9 8.8% We’re more aggressive with Hunter than anyone on FantasyPros, but he’s ranked 16th and 18th in the last 2 years, so why would we all of a sudden drop him to 50? He’s comfortably settled into the 2 slot in Detroit’s lineup, and while we don’t think he’s a .300+ hitter like he’s been in each of the last 2 seasons, he’s almost assuredly a .275-.285 guy. Despite the loss of Prince Fielder, the Tigers have the game’s best slugger batting 3rd and .300 BA, 100RBI guy in Victor Martinez batting 4th. Hunter will score runs. Players with similar stat lines: Nolan Arenado; Manny Machado; Brandon Belt 12 12 19 22 .266 .300 .263 .270 .227 .289 .266 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 156 140 144 145 649 584 652 661 80 81 90 84 .354 .390 .323 .328 -0.35 1.14 0.70 1.96 219 146 171 105 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.3 22.8 17.3 17.9 9.6 6.5 4.0 5.3 1.37 2.05 1.62 0.89 23 16 17 17 82 92 84 65 21.0 15.2% 22.6 16.0% 19.9 11.2% 21.7 8.5% 5 9 3 4 .262 .313 .304 .280 .267 .277 .268 .270 .297 .389 .344 .322 1.90 3.73 4.11 1.79 108 54 49 113 Josh Willingham | MIN | Age: 35 | Rk: 38 (109) Kole Calhoun | LAA | Age: 26 | Rk: 41 (115) Position: OF Position: OF Knee injuries killed Willingham’s power, sending him tumbling from the 13th-ranked OF in 2012 to 126th last year. The “experts” on FantasyPros look pretty stupid with Willingham -- his consensus rank is 71 and no on has him higher than 57. Look at our 2014 projection -- .257/27/91 -- and tell me how that’s not a surprisingly likely line. Willingham posted numbers better our 2014 projection in both 2011 and 2012 before knee injuries ruined him last year. He’s now “fully healthy” according to to the Minnesota Star Tribune, so take a shot. Ah, our favorite 2014 sleeper! Calhoun impressed the Angels’ brass enough to allow them to finally ship Peter Bourjos away, and now it’s a competition between Calhoun and J.B. Shuck for the starting RF job (which is to say, it’s no competition). There are even grumblings that the Angels might bat Calhoun leadoff, which means we could be looking at an 80+ R season from a .285 hitter with 15/15 potential. Given full playing time, there’s no reason Calhoun can’t have similar value to Alex Gordon. Players with similar stat lines: Mark Teixeira; Mike Napoli; Josh Hamilton 2011 2012 2013 2014 136 145 111 141 563 615 471 599 69 85 42 74 2011 2012 2013 2014 26.6 22.9 27.2 23.5 9.9 12.4 14.0 13.7 0.72 0.88 0.81 1.24 29 35 14 27 98 110 48 91 17.3 17.5% 19.0 21.2% 18.3 11.8% 23.3 23.9% Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Belt; Brian Dozier; Brett Lawrie 4 3 1 1 .246 .260 .208 .260 .214 .264 .203 .230 2011 2012 2013 2014 21 58 133 25 222 540 2 29 68 .287 .287 .269 .287 1.98 3.96 -3.73 1.85 106 47 492 109 2011 2012 24.0 2013 18.5 2014 16.5 8.0 9.5 9.8 1.40 1.14 1.10 0 8 17 1 32 62 29.4 0.0% 22.8 14.0% 22.7 12.2% 1 2 15 .174 .282 .280 .257 .285 .290 .235 .311 .311 -3.47 1.74 473 115 Leonys Martin | TEX | Age: 26 | Rk: 39 (112) Martin Prado | ARI | Age: 30 | Rk: 42 (117) Position: OF Position: 2B/3B/OF I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t think Martin is a sleeper entering 2014, which obviously means he’s no longer a sleeper. The Texas OF ranked 40th last year, and for 2014 we think he puts up similar stats to last season with a little more across the board by virtue of the added PA. Martin’s biggest weakness is that he struggles against left-handed pitchers, which means he could end up being very streaky, but in roto leagues in particular I think we can bank on Martin reaching these end-of-season numbers. Prado might be one of the more consistent players in baseball over the last 4 years. Despite a couple of blips on the radar you can count on a .280-.290 BA, 10-15 HR, 140+ R+RBI, and fewer than 5 SB. He’s a high-contact hitter, who likes to keep the ball near the ground (liners and grounders), which maintains his high batting average. Yes, this is boring analysis for a boring player, but he’s solid across the board and eligible at mulitiple positions, which makes him fairly valuable. Players with similar stat lines: Coco Crisp; Will Venable; Brett Gardner 2011 2012 2013 2014 8 24 147 150 8 52 508 568 2 6 66 76 2011 2012 2013 2014 12.5 23.1 20.5 19.4 0.0 7.7 5.5 7.7 4.00 1.60 1.81 1.31 0 0 8 14 0 6 49 43 28.6 0.0% 23.5 0.0% 21.0 8.4% 24.8 10.9% Players with similar stat lines: Jason Castro; Pablo Sandoval; Yadier Molina 0 3 36 32 .375 .174 .260 .270 .122 .158 .244 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 129 156 155 152 590 690 664 629 66 81 70 72 13 10 14 14 57 70 82 77 4 17 3 4 .260 .301 .282 .290 .251 .306 .298 .290 .429 .229 .319 .313 -7.18 -7.29 1.86 1.83 1178 1124 125 112 2011 8.8 2012 10.0 2013 8.0 2014 9.2 5.8 8.4 7.1 7.6 1.47 1.65 1.58 1.21 14.6 22.8 21.9 24.1 7.5% 6.2% 8.2% 8.1% .266 .322 .288 .300 -0.84 2.81 1.80 1.71 245 88 127 117 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 73 Nick Markakis | BAL | Age: 30 | Rk: 43 (124) Khris Davis | MIL | Age: 26 | Rk: 46 (137) Position: OF Position: OF Just because Markakis didn’t become the middle-of-the-order bat we expected him to develop into doesn’t mean he’s totally worthless. True, a 25/100 season would have more value than anything Markakis is capable of, but we still have him projected to be a top 50 OF in fantasy. A .288 season with 90 R over 700+ PA deserves a little time in your fantasy lineup. In points leagues that dock you for Ks, Markakis gains value -- he strikes out just 10-11% of the time. Players with similar stat lines: Torii Hunter; Matt Carpenter; Daniel Nava 2011 2012 2013 2014 160 104 160 160 716 471 700 712 72 59 89 90 2011 2012 2013 2014 10.5 10.8 10.9 10.3 8.7 8.9 7.9 8.7 1.24 1.33 1.52 1.61 15 13 10 12 73 54 59 62 23.1 7.7% 26.8 11.1% 22.6 5.7% 22.4 7.2% I’ve heard a lot of skeptics say that Davis was a flash in the pan last year and his power is unsustainable for a full season. I buy that -after all, we don’t expect him to hit 40 HR. Actually, we only expect him to hit 22. Full disclosure: Our original Davis projection had him at 27 HR and 75 RBI, so we definitely wanted to be more bullish. The way I see it, Davis will rack up a very good number of PA in a hitter’s park, and he’s always displayed above average power. He can steal bases and he walks a ton. I see few weaknesses here. Players with similar stat lines: Cody Asche; Asdrubal Cabrera; Brandon Belt 12 1 1 2 .284 .298 .271 .290 .295 .328 .270 .290 2011 2012 2013 2014 56 140 153 547 27 67 .300 .310 .291 .307 2.11 -0.64 0.61 1.60 99 247 176 124 2011 2012 2013 22.2 2014 18.5 7.2 11.0 1.16 1.19 11 22 27 68 20.4 28.9% 20.4 16.6% 3 8 .279 .270 .336 .280 .293 .298 -3.46 1.39 472 137 Austin Jackson | DET | Age: 27 | Rk: 44 (134) Alfonso Soriano | NYY | Age: 38 | Rk: 47 (139) Position: OF Position: OF Jackson lovers, turn away now. It’s starting to look like 2012’s 19thranked season (among OF) was the anomaly. No matter how much speed you have or how many line drives you hit (and Jackson hits a ton of them), you’re probably not going to sustain a .370+ BABIP. That life lesson struck Jackson owners last year as he was finally doomed by his 20%+ K rate, which, along with a .333 BABIP, led to just a .272 BA. Jackson was moved down in the lineup late last year and will probably hit 5th this year, which will even out his R/RBI gap. Before you draft Soriano this year just because he’s still available in the 10th round after ranking 10th among OF last year, remember that there’s no rule saying that you need to pay for last year’s production. While his HR, RBI, and BA were relatively unchanged from his 25th-ranked 2012 season, Soriano pitched in last year with 88 R and 18 SB. Yes, he’s DH-ing in NY, but those R and SB totals will be extremely tough to repeat. I can’t fault you for gambling on a back-to-back 30/100 player, though. Players with similar stat lines: Avisail Garcia; Brad Miller; Brett Lawrie 2011 2012 2013 2014 153 137 129 142 668 617 614 603 90 103 99 79 2011 2012 2013 2014 27.1 21.7 21.0 22.2 8.4 10.9 8.5 8.3 1.31 1.24 1.36 4.58 10 16 12 13 45 66 49 75 16.8 6.9% 23.8 11.4% 27.6 9.2% 23.0 23.4% Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Moss; Mark Teixeira; Nelson Cruz 22 12 8 11 .249 .300 .272 .270 .223 .287 .303 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 137 151 151 148 508 615 626 612 50 68 84 70 .340 .371 .333 .329 0.50 3.54 1.57 1.44 167 62 137 134 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.2 24.9 24.9 25.3 5.3 7.2 5.8 6.2 0.57 0.82 0.91 2.49 26 32 34 26 88 108 101 88 19.8 14.0% 20.4 17.8% 20.0 18.9% 34.4 35.9% 2 6 18 6 .244 .262 .255 .250 .249 .255 .265 .260 .266 .303 .289 .290 0.29 3.17 5.80 1.38 182 75 22 139 Christian Yelich | MIA | Age: 22 | Rk: 45 (136) Marlon Byrd | PHI | Age: 36 | Rk: 48 (142) Position: OF Position: OF Yelich has a ton of talent and will be the 2nd-most valuable Marlin in 2014, but there’s only so much he can do in that lineup. He has definite 20/20 potential (or better), and it looks like he’ll bat 2nd for the Fish. For now, he’ll likely produce more SB than HR, and our projected 58 RBI might be overly optimistic (who’s he going to drive in?). Yelich walks a lot, so if he can maintain a .270.280 BA, we could be looking at a .350+ OBP. Like Giancarlo Stanton, he may not fully deliver in fantasy because of his environment. Players with similar stat lines: Alejandro De Aza; Dexter Fowler; Brian Dozier 2011 2012 2013 2014 62 143 273 615 34 74 2011 2012 2013 24.2 2014 23.4 11.4 10.9 4.58 1.34 4 15 16 58 23.0 16.7% 18.5 11.2% There’s nothing exciting about Byrd, who’s now on to his 5th team in 3 seasons. Byrd’s HR surge last year came from an increased FB% and HR/FB rate, and as much as I don’t like projecting repeats of breakout seasons from guys well into their 30s, Byrd did hit those 24 HR in a pair of challenging ballparks (Citi Field and PNC Park). Citizen’s Bank Park is a little cozier, and Byrd will get plenty of PA. I’d rather gamble on the upside of the young players around Byrd in our rankings, but the veteran OF will have a respectable encore. Players with similar stat lines: Aramis Ramirez; Michael Cuddyer; Kendrys Morales 10 20 .288 .270 .300 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 119 48 147 144 482 153 579 612 51 10 75 70 .380 .328 -3.34 1.40 460 136 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.2 20.3 24.9 23.0 5.2 3.3 5.4 6.0 1.78 2.00 1.06 1.72 9 1 24 20 35 9 88 77 21.7 8.7% 25.7 3.6% 23.8 16.4% 20.9 16.9% 3 0 2 2 .276 .210 .291 .280 .294 .279 .288 .290 .316 .257 .353 .332 -2.25 -7.44 3.55 1.32 353 1144 61 142 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 74 | Baseball Professor Avisail Garcia | CHW | Age: 23 | Rk: 49 (143) Carl Crawford | LAD | Age: 32 | Rk: 52 (154) Position: OF Position: OF Garcia was Chicago’s compensation for Jake Peavy last summer, so they’re going to put him in their lineup and see what they’ve got. Honestly, I don’t love his moderate-strikeout, low-walk ways, but Garcia is a 6’4, 240-pound monster playing in a small ballpark -- we could see some fireworks. Right now we’re holding back from a 20+ HR projection because Garcia hit ground balls more than twice as often as he hit flies last year, and his 14.6% HR/FB rate is already pretty good. If the FB% increases, buy immediately. We’re at the point with Crawford where you just project an average line with a touch of optimism and then move on. It’s been written everywhere, but the Dodgers have one too many OF so they can afford to spell the oft-injured Crawford to give Andre Ethier some AB. Per Rotowire, Crawford “implied that he will return to his basestealing ways in 2014,” so take that however you’d like. Would it cause me to drastically change our projection? No. But if I’ve got a free roster spot and I could use some SB, I’ll add Crawford. Players with similar stat lines: Brett Lawrie; Chase Utley; Austin Jackson 2011 2012 2013 2014 23 72 138 51 256 586 7 31 71 2011 2012 19.6 2013 23.0 2014 21.3 5.9 3.5 4.8 5.75 2.19 1.65 0 7 17 3 31 75 27.0 0.0% 18.2 14.6% 20.8 13.7% Players with similar stat lines: Angel Pagan; Adam Eaton; Denard Span 0 3 11 .319 .283 .270 .314 .259 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 130 31 116 122 539 125 469 569 65 23 62 76 .405 .344 .314 -7.16 -3.36 1.32 1111 462 143 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.3 17.6 14.1 16.0 4.3 2.4 6.0 6.0 1.40 2.00 1.56 0.92 11 3 6 9 56 19 31 50 18.1 8.0% 18.8 11.5% 23.0 5.4% 14.5 4.7% 18 5 15 20 .255 .282 .283 .280 .251 .294 .303 .280 .299 .319 .321 .324 -0.03 -5.10 -0.56 1.18 203 968 238 154 Michael Bourn | CLE | Age: 31 | Rk: 50 (152) Denard Span | WAS | Age: 30 | Rk: 53 (156) Position: OF Position: OF If Bourn isn’t stealing 35+ bases, his value takes a big hit. Really, he’s no better than Angel Pagan, and Pagan has consistently hit for a better BA. I’m having a very difficult time getting excited about Bourn, so much so that I’m struggling to fill out his 100-word intro section to his profile. His K% is on the rise, his SB success rate is dropping, and there really isn’t much upside here. Players with SB potential will always have a good spot in any rankings system, but it’s power you want to gamble on, not the speed. Consensus opinion prior to 2013 was that Span would benefit greatly from leaving the Twins and batting leadoff for the World Series favorite Nationals. Span’s value did increase as he scored his most R and stole his most bases since 2010, but those marks were a product of increased playing time and not better per-game production. The Nationals as a whole let us down last year, so we’ll give Span a free pass. We’re not going to project 90 R or anything crazy, but 80 R, 22 SB, and a .283 BA is very reasonable. Players with similar stat lines: Coco Crisp; Brett Gardner; Erick Aybar Players with similar stat lines: Angel Pagan; Erick Aybar; Carl Crawford 2011 2012 2013 2014 158 155 130 152 722 703 575 709 94 96 75 84 2 9 6 7 50 57 50 52 61 42 23 29 .294 .274 .263 .260 .300 .264 .261 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 70 128 153 151 311 568 662 666 37 71 75 80 2 4 4 5 16 41 47 48 6 17 20 22 .264 .283 .279 .280 .260 .282 .287 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.4 22.0 23.0 22.0 7.3 10.0 7.0 8.6 2.22 2.19 2.37 1.11 26.6 21.9 19.6 20.2 1.8% 8.0% 6.6% 3.8% .369 .349 .338 .329 5.65 3.96 0.96 1.18 29 48 160 152 2011 2012 2013 2014 11.6 10.9 11.6 11.1 8.7 8.3 6.3 7.5 2.00 2.24 2.38 1.40 20.7 21.3 23.0 22.5 3.1% 3.7% 3.4% 2.9% .297 .315 .313 .312 -4.37 -0.33 1.06 1.12 576 225 158 156 Angel Pagan | SF | Age: 32 | Rk: 51 (153) Norichika Aoki | KC | Age: 32 | Rk: 54 (158) Position: OF Position: OF Pagan scored 95 R in 2012 en route to a 26th-overall rank among OF. Last year he scored 44 in just 305 PA, putting him on nearly the same pace. If healthy for a full season, Pagan is a 90 R, 7-10 HR, 50 RBI, 20+ SB player with a career .281 BA, which means he could end up returning a better line than someone like Shane Victorino or Austin Jackson. Considering Victorino is ranked 31st on FantasyPros and Jackson is ranked 37th, that gives the 62nd-ranked Pagan some potentially great value. Aoki is a slap-hitting outfielder who might have the best contact skills in baseball. He needs them because with the amount of poor contact he makes (low LD%, high IFFB%), he needs to put as many balls in play as he can. Moving from the Brewers to the Royals doesn’t do a ton for his fantasy value as both lineups project to be above average, and while I would normally have concerns about moving from Miller Park to Kauffman Stadium, we only docked Aoki a 2 HR because of it. Players with similar stat lines: Erick Aybar; Carl Crawford; Denard Span Players with similar stat lines: Denard Span; Angel Pagan; Erick Aybar 2011 2012 2013 2014 123 154 71 135 532 659 305 575 68 95 44 77 7 8 5 7 56 56 30 49 32 29 9 24 .262 .288 .282 .280 .285 .275 .293 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 151 155 151 588 674 688 81 80 85 10 8 6 50 37 36 30 20 24 .288 .286 .280 .298 .315 .310 2011 2012 2013 2014 11.7 14.7 11.8 11.7 8.3 7.3 7.5 7.3 0.85 1.19 1.27 1.51 24.0 22.5 23.3 23.4 4.1% 4.5% 6.0% 5.1% .285 .329 .307 .307 1.21 3.17 -2.38 1.18 133 76 363 153 2011 2012 2013 2014 9.4 5.9 7.7 7.3 8.2 8.0 2.00 2.76 1.12 16.9 17.7 20.6 7.9% 6.7% 2.8% .304 .295 .298 2.49 1.65 1.07 103 135 158 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 75 Domonic Brown | PHI | Age: 26 | Rk: 55 (164) Melky Cabrera | TOR | Age: 29 | Rk: 58 (170) Position: OF Position: OF Blasting 27 HR on the strengths of a 19.3% HR/FB rate last year, Brown finally lived up to some of the hype he generated with impressive spring trainings a few years back. Unfortunately for Brown’s 2014 outlook, 12 of those 27 HR came in May, and he only hit 4 after the break. It doesn’t matter when you hit them, only that you do, but clustering your production into such a small window bookended by much more pedestrian play definitely raises a few eyebrows. Players with similar stat lines: Oswaldo Arcia; Will Middlebrooks; Matt Wieters 2011 2012 2013 2014 56 56 139 141 210 212 540 583 28 21 65 65 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.7 16.0 18.0 17.5 11.9 9.9 7.2 8.9 1.32 1.41 1.22 1.09 5 5 27 22 19 26 83 77 18.0 9.4% 20.6 9.8% 22.8 19.3% 16.7 13.8% The Melk Man isn’t done yet. He ranked just 122nd among OF last year, playing only half the season, but he was pretty awful in those 88 games, slugging just .360 with a wRC+ of 87. He made contact as much as ever and that contact was generally good, but he had almost zero extra base power (just 3 HR). It was a lost year for almost everyone on the Blue Jays (don’t you feel bad for Edwin Encarnacion?) and Cabrera hasn’t produced since his PED suspension, but I’m giving him one more chance to show he still has value. Players with similar stat lines: Starlin Castro; Howie Kendrick; Omar Infante 3 0 8 8 .245 .235 .272 .260 .257 .276 .305 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 155 113 88 127 706 501 372 525 102 84 39 74 .276 .260 .287 .279 -4.92 -5.76 3.05 0.97 665 993 73 164 2011 2012 2013 2014 13.3 12.6 12.6 13.3 5.0 7.2 6.2 7.2 1.44 2.00 1.48 1.15 18 11 3 9 87 60 30 67 20.3 9.8% 21.8 10.7% 22.1 3.2% 20.9 6.0% 20 13 2 11 .305 .346 .279 .280 .289 .298 .254 .280 .332 .379 .313 .311 5.96 3.32 -3.50 0.86 25 67 477 170 Alejandro De Aza | CHW | Age: 30 | Rk: 56 (166) Coco Crisp | OAK | Age: 34 | Rk: 59 (171) Position: OF Position: OF When the White Sox acquired Adam Eaton, it sent the right-handed Dayan Viciedo to the bench. Eaton will be the full-time leadoff hitter and Avisail Garcia will also see full-time play, but Viciedo needs to get some AB somewhere. The most likely scenario is a lefty/ righty platoon split, which ensures that the left-handed De Aza receives the larger share of playing time. His power last year was mostly legit, and I think he’s better than a .260s hitter with some good speed and nice line drive rates, but his PA total could doom him. Crisp’s HR total was hilarious last year. 22? Are you serious? His average HR distance was so low that he was actually an outlier among all the other outliers. If we toss his ludicrous 2013 numbers out the window, we see a guy who ranked 52nd among OF in 2012, but he was a 39 SB player that year. Crisp is an average OBP player that bats leadoff for an above average offense, so he should have no trouble scoring 75-85 R, but the power numbers will be ho hum and his BA is never good. Players with similar stat lines: Jurickson Profar; Christian Yelich; Josh Rutledge 2011 2012 2013 2014 54 131 153 133 171 585 675 566 29 81 84 72 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.9 18.6 21.8 21.0 9.9 8.0 7.4 8.3 1.58 1.30 1.18 1.04 4 9 17 14 23 50 62 51 19.8 11.1% 26.1 7.0% 24.7 10.8% 17.1 9.1% Players with similar stat lines: Michael Bourn; Will Venable; Jackie Bradley 12 26 20 19 .329 .281 .264 .270 .281 .282 .265 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 136 120 131 128 583 508 584 575 69 68 93 81 .404 .339 .318 .315 -2.92 1.74 2.82 0.90 420 125 83 166 2011 2012 2013 2014 11.1 12.6 11.1 12.5 7.0 8.9 10.4 8.9 1.24 1.25 1.03 0.99 8 11 22 10 54 46 66 45 24.0 5.1% 20.1 8.0% 19.6 12.4% 22.5 5.8% 49 39 21 27 .264 .259 .261 .260 .295 .262 .282 .280 .284 .280 .258 .285 2.81 1.58 3.93 0.82 76 130 51 171 Oswaldo Arcia | MIN | Age: 23 | Rk: 57 (168) Nick Swisher | CLE | Age: 33 | Rk: 60 (172) Position: OF Position: 1B/OF Arcia has power -- a lot of it -- but he also struck out in 31.% of his 378 PA last season. The Twins don’t have a ton of other options, so even if/when Arcia struggles, he’ll probably stay in the lineup. It’s through sheet volume of PA that we have him racking up 25 HR this year, but his BA could be even worse than the .260 we’re projecting if he doesn’t correct that strikeout problems, which persisted against both RHP and LHP. Heck, Arcia needed a .336 BABIP last year just to hit .251! Swisher is the ultimate “doesn’t wow you” player and in 2013 that was especially true thanks to a shoulder injury that bothered him all year. Last year was a testament to his desire to stay on the field, but it definitely affected his performance -- especially with his power vs. righties as he managed just a .150 ISO (career .220 ISO). His career 13.2 BB% makes him a great option in OBP leagues and it should also keep him near the top of the Indians lineup, which will optimize his plate appearances. Players with similar stat lines: Will Middlebrooks; Nelson Cruz; Ike Davis 2011 2012 2013 2014 97 141 378 599 34 63 2011 2012 2013 31.0 2014 26.0 6.1 7.7 1.04 1.46 14 25 43 78 17.1 14.7% 18.2 20.7% Players with similar stat lines: Jedd Gyorko; Justin Smoak; Anthony Rizzo 1 4 .251 .260 .224 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 150 148 145 145 635 624 634 630 81 75 74 85 23 24 22 24 85 93 63 70 2 2 1 2 .260 .272 .246 .250 .272 .256 .264 .260 .336 .308 -2.83 0.88 405 168 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.7 22.6 21.8 21.9 15.0 12.3 12.1 13.0 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.96 21.8 22.3 23.1 21.2 14.3% 15.4% 13.7% 15.8% .295 .324 .288 .281 1.70 2.08 0.30 0.82 118 111 190 172 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 76 | Baseball Professor Nelson Cruz | FA | Age: 33 | Rk: 61 (183) Gerardo Parra | ARI | Age: 27 | Rk: 64 (203) Position: OF Position: OF If Cruz were to post a Craigslist ad advertising his services, it would read something like this: “Experienced Slugger Seeking Loving Home (Or At Least Some Playing Time) -- Are you looking for an affordable outfielder with a history of 30 HR power to bolster your team’s offense? When I’m healthy, that’s exactly the kind of player I am! Yeah, I’ve had some injury issues here and there, but what’s a hamstring anyway? I was suspended from my last job, but it was all a big misunderstanding.” Maybe worth a flier, but not much more. A 4th OF for his 1st 4 seasons with Arizona, Parra worked his way into regular playing time last year thanks to Adam Eaton and Cody Ross getting injured. With Eaton now playing for Chicago, Parra has the full-time leadoff job for the Diamondbacks, which means a likely repeat of his entire 2013 stat line. There’s a very low ceiling here, but also a high floor. You’re not going to draft Parra this year and you won’t hear his name in any preseason podcasts (or Profcasts) but you’ll see his name on your league’s transaction tracker all year. Players with similar stat lines: Oswaldo Arcia; Justin Smoak; Matt Wieters 2011 2012 2013 2014 124 159 109 130 513 642 456 552 64 86 49 64 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.6 21.8 23.9 22.1 6.4 7.5 7.7 8.0 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.00 29 24 27 26 87 90 76 76 15.7 18.7% 18.5 13.1% 16.9 21.3% 17.3 17.7% Players with similar stat lines: Jackie Bradley; Dustin Ackley; Brad Miller 9 8 5 4 .263 .260 .266 .250 .249 .264 .255 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 141 133 156 140 493 430 663 620 55 58 79 81 8 7 10 10 46 36 48 46 15 15 10 14 .292 .273 .268 .270 .285 .280 .268 .280 .288 .301 .295 .274 2.46 2.52 1.49 0.51 84 99 142 183 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.6 17.9 15.1 16.5 8.7 7.7 7.2 8.1 1.77 2.19 2.23 2.09 22.4 22.1 19.9 21.0 8.1% 9.5% 8.2% 8.8% .342 .323 .305 .309 -0.11 -1.46 0.44 0.10 207 295 182 203 Chris Young | NYM | Age: 30 | Rk: 62 (191) Jason Kubel | MIN | Age: 32 | Rk: 65 (204) Position: OF Position: OF From perennial 20/20 threat to journeyman 4th OF, it’s now considered a good season if Young combines for 20 HR and SB. A platoon and defensive specialist for the past few years, Young now has a full-time job with the Mets. It’s a 1-year contract, meaning Young could do well and land a not-insignificant contract on the open market. More playing time means more fantasy value, and we’re putting Young right on the cusp of a 20 HR season. I understand why “experts” have him ranked around 100, but his HR and SB ability over 500 PA deserves more credit. After hitting 30 HR in 2012, Kubel managed just 5 last year. The precipitous fall took him all the way to a minor league contract with the team he cut his teeth with, Minnesota. Given the Twins desperate need for offense, I have a hard time imagining Kubel not making the team as their DH. He’s hit at least 20 HR in 4 of the last 6 seasons, and I doubt many people even know he’s back in Minnesota. Absolutely no one has Kubel on their radar, which means you absolutely should. Players with similar stat lines: Corey Dickerson; Domonic Brown; Cody Asche 2011 2012 2013 2014 156 101 107 149 659 363 375 568 89 36 46 60 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.1 21.8 24.8 22.5 12.1 9.9 9.6 10.0 0.65 0.66 0.58 1.06 20 14 12 19 71 41 40 69 19.7 9.5% 22.0 12.1% 21.6 10.0% 21.8 14.1% Players with similar stat lines: Matt Wieters; Jedd Gyorko; Garrett Jones 22 8 10 12 .236 .231 .200 .260 .236 .238 .218 .230 2011 2012 2013 2014 99 141 97 136 401 571 290 534 37 75 21 68 .275 .263 .237 .297 1.88 -3.25 -3.04 0.31 110 441 427 191 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.4 26.4 31.7 24.9 8.0 10.0 10.0 10.5 0.82 0.76 0.80 2.81 12 30 5 21 58 90 32 79 21.3 9.8% 23.0 19.0% 26.6 7.2% 17.4 30.2% 1 1 0 1 .273 .253 .216 .250 .243 .266 .218 .250 .326 .296 .311 .340 -1.98 1.75 -5.58 0.10 328 123 721 204 Will Venable | SD | Age: 31 | Rk: 63 (198) Jackie Bradley | BOS | Age: 24 | Rk: 66 (207) Position: OF Position: OF If you asked me to put together a list of potential 20/20 candidates before last season, it would have taken me awhile before listing Venable. He’s been a 20 SB player in each of the last 4 years despite getting stuck in a platoon with Chris Denorfia, but last year Venable’s consistent production earned him a career-best 515 PA. Will the power return in 2014? It’s unlikely. You don’t just jump from 4 straight years consistently around a 10% HR/FB rate to nearly 20%, and PETCO only serves to complicate matters. Bradley, a.k.a., Jacoby Ellsbury’s replacement, has some big shoes to fill in Boston. After a stellar spring training last year that earned him a roster spot on Opening Day, Bradley promptly hit like a rookie and spent the majority of the year in AAA. He’ll bat 9th for Boston, limiting his total number of PA, but that’s almost like a 2nd leadoff slot -- Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava, Dustin Pedroia, and David Ortiz will be driving him in. Bradley has .280 potential with 15 HR power and 15 SB speed, but balance and OBP will be his calling cards. Players with similar stat lines: Jimmy Rollins; Coco Crisp; Josh Rutledge 2011 2012 2013 2014 121 148 151 144 411 470 515 508 49 62 64 67 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.4 20.0 22.9 22.0 7.5 8.7 5.6 6.9 1.17 1.64 1.50 1.05 9 9 22 12 44 45 53 45 21.1 9.2% 22.4 9.8% 21.3 19.8% 18.6 8.9% Players with similar stat lines: Gerardo Parra; Dustin Ackley; Coco Crisp 26 24 22 24 .246 .264 .268 .260 .252 .257 .283 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 37 129 107 534 18 81 .300 .320 .313 .317 -0.83 -0.14 2.42 0.17 243 214 97 198 2011 2012 2013 29.0 2014 20.2 9.3 9.6 2.86 2.42 3 11 10 45 15.6 21.4% 17.1 12.4% 2 15 .189 .270 .243 .270 .246 .316 -6.24 0.08 844 207 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 77 Michael Saunders | SEA | Age: 27 | Rk: 67 (209) Robbie Grossman | HOU | Age: 24 | Rk: 70 (220) Position: OF Position: OF Saunders almost had a 20/20 season in 2012, ranking 60th among OF that year, but his low BA and RBI total prevent him from really shooting up the rankings. Neither is likely to improve any time soon with Saunders’ K% still well over 20% and Seattle still choosing to use him in the bottom part of their lineup, but Saunders makes for a great late-week free agent add in H2H leagues where BA has already been decided. His HR and SB numbers will continue to be useful. Players with similar stat lines: George Springer; Andrelton Simmons; Alejandro De Aza 2011 2012 2013 2014 58 139 132 131 179 553 468 527 16 71 59 68 2011 2012 2013 2014 31.3 23.9 25.2 23.7 6.7 7.8 11.5 11.6 0.72 1.31 1.10 1.60 2 19 12 17 8 57 46 53 14.9 4.0% 20.2 15.0% 22.0 11.3% 20.4 17.5% Before the Astros acquired Dexter Fowler, Grossman was slated to be their leadoff man. Now he’ll probably bat 6th or 7th. In the minors Grossman posted some very, very elite strikeout and walk rates, but translating those to a full MLB season, particularly as a member of a lineup with little protection, will be tough. Grossman’s power is limited, but he does have some speed and could threaten 20, or even 30, SB this season. Because of the potentially valuable SB total and the likely high number of PA, Grossman is on my watch list. Players with similar stat lines: Howie Kendrick; Andrelton Simmons; Junior Lake 6 21 13 18 .149 .247 .236 .250 .155 .258 .242 .240 2011 2012 2013 2014 63 141 288 604 29 61 4 9 21 68 6 14 .268 .270 .270 .270 .212 .297 .298 .299 0.82 -1.15 0.07 167 279 209 2011 2012 2013 24.3 2014 20.4 8.0 12.3 1.60 0.92 23.1 25.2 7.3% 5.8% .353 .318 -4.14 -0.16 540 220 George Springer | HOU | Age: 24 | Rk: 68 (217) Chris Carter | HOU | Age: 27 | Rk: 71 (223) Position: OF Position: 1B/OF Springer will be delayed in the minors to prevent his service time clock from beginning any sooner than it has to. Once that’s up though, it shouldn’t take him long to don an Astros uniform. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, going for 39 HR and 45 SB last season across AA and AAA. I’m not wholly convinced Springer will contribute much from the get-go because he’s posted some very high K rates in the minors, but any player with 40 SB speed and a 6’3 slugging frame needs to be on your radar. Carter’s batted ball profile actually has a lot of similarities to Chris Davis’ as both players like to swing and miss but also hit a lot of fly balls (and HR) when they do make contact. To harness that raw power potential, Cartner needs to offer at more pitches and make more solid contact. In 2013, Carter swung at just 46% of pitches, made contact just 65.4% of the time, and also popped up 12.1% of his fly balls. If he can improve all three of those areas, we might be looking at Chris Davis light. Players with similar stat lines: Michael Saunders; Andrelton Simmons; Matt Joyce 2011 2012 2013 2014 129 487 64 2011 2012 2013 2014 25.9 9.9 1.19 15 65 26.0 14.9% Players with similar stat lines: Adam Dunn; Mark Teixeira; Colby Rasmus 17 .250 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 15 67 148 152 46 260 585 615 2 38 64 63 .303 -0.12 217 2011 2012 2013 2014 43.5 31.9 36.2 34.3 4.3 15.0 12.0 13.0 0.36 0.75 0.66 0.73 0 16 29 31 0 39 82 87 37.5 0.0% 20.3 25.4% 22.4 20.7% 17.5 22.5% 0 0 2 1 .136 .239 .223 .230 .173 .247 .215 .230 .250 .295 .311 .283 -3.45 0.66 -0.18 466 174 223 Corey Dickerson | COL | Age: 25 | Rk: 69 (218) Carlos Quentin | SD | Age: 31 | Rk: 72 (224) Position: OF Position: OF The left-handed Dickerson finds him on the favorable side of a platoon split with Drew Stubbs. When he’s in the lineup, Dickerson will probably bat leadoff for the Rockies, letting him put his decent on-base skills to use. With only 213 MLB PA under his belt, there will probably be a learning curve, but Dickerson has always posted average strikeout rates with above average walk rates, and he has enough power to hit 15+ HR. For Colorado, he’s not that much different that Dexter Fowler, though Fowler was obviously better. For the 2nd straight year, Quentin played just over 80 games. He underwent September knee surgery and remains a 25-30 HR threat, but the problem is that he’s rarely on the field long enough to actually reach those numbers. From a BA perspective he’s a little underrated with a decent strikeout rate and a good walk rate. Our projection factors in a fair amount of upside while weighing the risk of him getting hurt again. Players with similar stat lines: Asdrubal Cabrera; Nick Franklin; Cody Asche 2011 2012 2013 2014 69 131 213 498 32 57 2011 2012 2013 19.2 2014 18.1 7.5 7.0 1.19 1.35 5 16 17 65 26.0 9.6% 22.3 13.6% Players with similar stat lines: Jhonny Peralta; Cody Asche; Neil Walker 2 10 .263 .270 .266 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 118 86 82 123 483 340 320 468 53 44 42 62 24 16 13 18 77 46 44 72 1 0 0 0 .254 .261 .275 .270 .218 .273 .264 .250 .307 .296 -4.56 -0.15 589 218 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.4 12.1 17.2 16.9 7.0 10.6 9.7 9.8 0.60 0.75 0.79 0.57 14.3 18.3 19.6 22.4 13.1% 13.9% 12.9% 12.8% .261 .252 .297 .285 0.06 -2.54 -2.06 -0.20 201 384 346 224 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 78 | Baseball Professor B.J. Upton | ATL | Age: 29 | Rk: 73 (229) Andre Ethier | LAD | Age: 32 | Rk: 76 (241) Position: OF Position: OF After finishing in the top 20 among OF in both 2011 and 2012, Upton signed a big contract the Braves, who ended up paying him $750K for every HR or SB he tallied last year. Given that Upton is usually good for 60 combined HR and SB, either the Braves paid him a record amount of money or Upton was terrible. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, it was the latter. Look, there’s still an immense amount of physical ability here, and with an unrepeatable 19.3 IFFB% last year, we think he regains some value. Players with similar stat lines: George Springer; Michael Saunders; Kelly Johnson 2011 2012 2013 2014 153 146 126 133 640 633 446 520 82 79 30 70 2011 2012 2013 2014 25.2 26.7 33.9 27.5 11.1 7.1 9.9 9.6 1.00 0.98 1.25 0.88 23 28 9 17 81 78 26 67 18.3 14.1% 18.6 16.7% 18.9 10.2% 17.7 12.8% Good luck projecting this guy. How many PA will Ethier get as LA’s 4th OF? Will they trade him (or someone else), paving the way for a 550 PA season? We’ll probably know more in the coming months, but for now we have to evaluate Ethier in the context of the situation he finds himself in: a 4th OF with poor numbers against left-handed pitchers. He was a top 60 OF in both 2011 and 2012 -- and even better in 2008-2010 -- but you can’t draft a left-handed platoon batter based on his potential should he get traded. Players with similar stat lines: Jhonny Peralta; Alexander Guerrero; Yan Gomes 36 31 12 22 .243 .246 .184 .230 .241 .250 .190 .230 2011 2012 2013 2014 135 149 142 112 551 618 553 463 67 79 54 66 .298 .294 .266 .274 3.86 3.73 -5.28 -0.21 54 55 680 229 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.7 20.1 17.2 17.7 10.5 8.1 11.0 10.4 1.41 1.32 1.06 1.30 11 20 12 16 62 89 52 60 25.3 9.2% 24.1 14.1% 24.4 8.4% 20.4 15.2% 0 2 4 3 .292 .284 .272 .270 .299 .300 .285 .290 .348 .333 .315 .295 0.08 2.18 -0.81 -0.42 199 109 252 241 Junior Lake | CHC | Age: 24 | Rk: 74 (231) Colby Rasmus | TOR | Age: 27 | Rk: 77 (242) Position: OF Position: OF In our Thursday Night Live Chats, I usually have someone ask me about Junior Lake. I understand the excitement of getting in early on a player with a ton of raw ability, but Lake isn’t close to ready. He has 20 SB speed over a full season and a little bit of power, but he’s never lived up to that potential and has a poor 5-to-1 K:BB ratio. Despite posting a .284 BA last year, Lake needed a .377 BABIP to do it. On the bright side, he creamed left-handed pitchers last year, so keep him in mind for any deep league fantasy platoons. Rasmus hit 22 HR in just 458 PA last year, making him an intriguing power option for 2014. Don’t be fooled by the .274 BA, though. He’s a .230-.240 hitter through and through. Rasmus will bat 5th for the Blue Jays and should settle in the 70s or low 80s with his RBI total, but he doesn’t score many R, doesn’t steal bases, and again, the BA will be a drain. His best chance at being relevant in 2014 will be to channel his inner Josh Reddick and blast 30+ HR and 80+ RBI. Players with similar stat lines: Andrelton Simmons; Howie Kendrick; Robbie Grossman 2011 2012 2013 2014 64 148 254 564 26 54 2011 2012 2013 26.8 2014 24.5 5.1 5.3 1.38 1.42 6 11 16 60 27.8 12.5% 18.7 8.6% Players with similar stat lines: Matt Wieters; Josh Reddick; Matt Davidson 4 17 .284 .270 .326 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 129 151 118 135 526 625 458 573 75 75 57 71 .377 .341 -4.20 -0.24 546 231 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.1 23.8 29.5 25.0 9.5 7.5 8.1 7.7 0.75 0.89 0.73 1.80 14 23 22 23 53 75 66 78 16.5 8.3% 20.1 13.2% 22.0 17.3% 21.8 23.1% 5 4 0 2 .225 .223 .276 .240 .184 .236 .238 .220 .267 .259 .356 .291 -1.68 -0.57 0.69 -0.44 301 239 172 242 Josh Reddick | OAK | Age: 27 | Rk: 75 (238) Dustin Ackley | SEA | Age: 26 | Rk: 78 (252) Position: OF Position: 2B/OF If Reddick isn’t hitting 30+ HR (see: 2012), then he’s a low-BA throwaway. That’s all there is to it. Ok, that might be unfair to people in OBP leagues where Reddick can substitute his career .239 BA with a less-awful .302 OBP, and I suppose there’s the 10 SB potential. It’s true that Reddick was bothered by a bum wrist last year, which he had offseason surgery to fix, so he could get closer to his 14.0% HR/FB rate from 2 years ago, but I think our 24 HR projection is an example of us painting with a very realistic brush. Ackley is currently projected to bat leadoff for the Mariners and that’s really his only saving grace. Should things break right for him in 2014, he has the potential to bat .270 with double-digit homers and steals, and that could mean 80 R, but the further he drops in the order the harder it will be for him to rack up enough relevant coutning stats. It’s time to stop waiting for this former top prospect to finally put it together. Players with similar stat lines: Todd Frazier; Colby Rasmus; Matt Davidson 2011 2012 2013 2014 87 156 114 144 278 673 441 596 41 85 54 63 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.0 22.4 19.5 19.5 6.8 8.2 10.4 9.9 0.68 0.59 0.80 0.70 7 32 12 24 28 85 56 72 23.3 7.4% 21.2 14.0% 20.1 8.9% 21.1 13.2% Players with similar stat lines: Gerardo Parra; Jackie Bradley; Brad Miller 1 11 9 8 .280 .242 .226 .240 .263 .252 .231 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 90 153 113 121 376 668 427 520 39 84 40 78 .318 .269 .255 .254 -3.40 2.60 -1.62 -0.39 467 96 299 238 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.0 18.6 16.9 14.8 10.6 8.8 8.7 9.4 1.05 1.29 1.89 2.17 6 12 4 10 36 50 31 44 22.3 6.2% 19.4 7.1% 21.9 4.8% 20.4 10.6% 6 13 2 10 .273 .226 .253 .270 .249 .244 .264 .250 .339 .265 .301 .300 -2.90 -1.40 -4.01 -0.57 414 292 520 252 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 79 Garrett Jones | MIA | Age: 33 | Rk: 79 (255) Kelly Johnson | NYY | Age: 32 | Rk: 82 (270) Position: 1B/OF Position: 2B/3B/OF Jones hit 27 HR in 2012, then slumped to just 15 last year. The culprit? A career-worst 35.9 FB%. Odds are that rate improves in 2014. Jones isn’t a great contributor and has very limited upside, thanks to a complete inability to hit left-handed pitching. Last year, 94.7% of his PA came against right-handed pitching so his struggles at the plate are even that more alarming. He’s slated to be the power-starved Marlins’ cleanup hitter so he could provide some decent value late in the draft in deeper leagues. Johnson is a low-average player who now has the starting 3B job in light of Alex Rodriguez’s year-long ban. He’s hit no fewer than 16 HR in any of the past 4 years, which is encouraging if you play him at a power-starved 2B position, but Johnson’s also hit higher than .235 just once in the last five years (.284 in 2010). The extra playing time will be nice and Johnson provides some pop for a middle infielder, but don’t expect him to contribute much else. Players with similar stat lines: Matt Dominguez; Matt Davidson; Matt Wieters 2011 2012 2013 2014 148 145 144 144 478 515 440 545 51 68 41 56 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.8 20.0 23.0 22.2 10.0 6.4 7.0 7.3 0.79 0.96 1.12 1.30 16 27 15 21 58 86 51 77 19.5 11.0% 18.5 17.1% 23.9 13.6% 21.2 16.6% Players with similar stat lines: Matt Joyce; Marcell Ozuna; Josh Reddick 6 2 2 2 .243 .274 .233 .250 .234 .284 .257 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 147 142 118 138 613 581 407 501 75 61 41 68 .283 .293 .271 .284 -1.49 1.83 -2.57 -0.63 285 119 383 255 2011 2012 2013 2014 26.6 27.4 24.3 24.4 9.8 10.7 8.6 9.2 0.97 1.34 0.84 1.67 21 16 16 19 58 55 52 58 20.4 13.8% 21.0 13.7% 15.2 12.9% 5.9 17.4% 16 14 7 8 .222 .225 .235 .240 .248 .232 .204 .230 .277 .292 .276 .282 -0.16 -1.55 -1.80 -1.10 211 303 322 270 Justin Ruggiano | CHC | Age: 32 | Rk: 80 (264) Matt Joyce | TB | Age: 29 | Rk: 83 (278) Position: OF Position: OF Having ranked 82nd and 75th in the last 2 seasons (not high enough to earn a full-time roster spot but definitely high enough to be useful in spurts) there probably came a time when you added Ruggiano. Though he’s only really played much these last 2 years Ruggiano is actually turning 33 this April and has a professional ballplayer since 2006. Even though it took him awhile to break through, he’s now become a decent source of HR and RBI off free agency, and he ranks higher than his platoon-mate in Chicago (Nate Schierholtz). Joining David DeJesus as Tampa’s left-handed OF mired in platoon situations is Joyce. He’s carved out a nice role over the last 3 years, once finishing at the 39th-best OF in fantasy (2011). Joyce is consistently just shy of 20 HR, and he’s flashed a little speed here and there. A career .249 hitter, I actually see some things in his batted ball profile that suggest he could be a .260+ batter on a regular basis, but for now we should expect a low BA that’s buoyed in OBP leagues by a career 11.6% walk rate. Players with similar stat lines: Dayan Viciedo; Oscar Taveras; Wilson Ramos 2011 2012 2013 2014 46 91 128 99 111 320 472 375 11 38 49 45 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.4 26.3 24.2 28.8 3.6 9.1 8.7 9.9 1.50 1.08 1.16 1.60 4 13 18 15 13 36 50 56 12.5 14.3% 20.6 16.7% 16.6 15.1% 23.1 24.0% Players with similar stat lines: Mike Zunino; Kelly Johnson; Mike Moustakas 1 14 15 14 .248 .313 .222 .270 .231 .261 .230 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 141 124 140 126 522 462 481 480 69 55 61 60 19 17 18 17 75 59 47 62 13 4 7 8 .277 .241 .235 .240 .253 .237 .255 .250 .289 .401 .260 .296 -6.00 -1.06 -1.04 -0.97 853 267 269 264 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.3 22.1 18.1 19.8 9.4 11.9 12.3 11.9 0.86 0.87 0.85 1.45 21.2 19.3 20.3 18.7 12.3% 13.3% 12.7% 17.0% .317 .281 .251 .265 2.04 -1.70 -1.00 -1.31 102 315 264 278 Cody Ross | ARI | Age: 33 | Rk: 81 (267) Nick Castellanos | DET | Age: 22 | Rk: 84 (286) Position: OF Position: 3B/OF In his 2012 season with the Red Sox, Ross ranked 59th among all OF. It was his only fantasy-relevant season in the last half-decade. Ross played just 94 games for Arizona last year after undergoing season ending hip surgery, but he’s back and ready to get to play near-full time. Arizona is a nice offensive environment, but Ross did become more of a ground ball hitter last season (along with a severley reduced K%). Is he trying out a new approach? More importantly, will he stick with it? We’ll learn quickly this April. Players with similar stat lines: Lonnie Chisenhall; Justin Morneau; Welington Castillo 2011 2012 2013 2014 121 130 94 131 461 528 351 560 54 70 33 54 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.8 24.4 14.2 19.3 10.6 8.0 7.1 7.5 0.70 0.85 1.22 1.20 14 22 8 18 52 81 38 65 17.6 9.3% 22.4 14.9% 21.4 8.3% 17.5 12.6% Prince Fielder’s departure opened the door for every day playing time at 3B. Batting between Alex Avila and Jose Iglesias, the correct approach with Castellanos is to expect the worst and hope for the best. His 2013 season at AAA was encouraging, particularly his 16.8 K%, 9.1 BB%, and career-best .174 ISO, and who else is Detroit going to put at third? Miguel Cabrera? Pah! Players with similar stat lines: Lonnie Chisenhall; Mike Moustakas; Michael Morse 5 2 3 2 .240 .267 .278 .260 .229 .258 .261 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 11 142 18 538 1 58 .279 .317 .303 .296 -1.95 0.96 -2.86 -0.99 324 159 409 267 2011 2012 2013 5.6 2014 18.8 0.0 7.8 1.67 4.28 0 15 0 67 5.9 0.0% 20.4 26.7% 0 2 .278 .260 .197 .260 .294 .288 -7.37 -1.45 1198 286 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 80 | Baseball Professor Ben Revere | PHI | Age: 26 | Rk: 85 (293) Nate Schierholtz | CHC | Age: 30 | Rk: 88 (298) Position: OF Position: OF We’re now at 1,400 and counting. That’s how many PA have come and gone in Revere’s career without a single long ball. 4 years, 10 errors in the OF, 96 SB, 342 games, and not a single HR. That’s OK, though. I mean really, what’s the difference between Michael Bourn (6-9 HR) and Revere? A plus defender and Philadelphia’s lone non-slugging OF, Revere has the starting CF and leadoff jobs locked up. He missed half of 2013 with a broken foot, but when healthy he’s a 30-40 SB guy capable of ranking in the top 60 (i.e., borderline starting OF). Players with similar stat lines: Jonathan Villar; Jemile Weeks; Alcides Escobar 2011 2012 2013 2014 Best used as a platoon player in fantasy leagues, Schierholtz nearly doubled his career HR total last season. He was abysmal against left-handers (.170 BA) but he crushed righties (.262 BA, 20 HR). Though I’m worried that he’ll need to maintain that incredible pace against righties to match last year’s numbers, he did hit more fly balls than grounders for the 1st time last year and he did register a career-best 503 PA. Players with similar stat lines: Welington Castillo; Oscar Taveras; Dayan Viciedo 117 124 88 122 481 553 336 569 56 70 37 61 0 0 0 0 30 32 17 36 34 40 22 31 .267 .294 .305 .260 .308 .301 .306 .300 2011 2012 2013 2014 115 114 137 134 362 269 503 465 42 20 56 47 2011 8.5 2012 9.8 2013 10.7 2014 9.1 5.4 5.2 4.8 5.6 5.91 4.61 3.39 1.54 19.9 18.6 23.2 19.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% .293 .325 .344 .282 -0.63 1.41 -1.90 -1.70 237 136 334 293 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.9 17.1 18.7 18.5 5.8 8.6 5.8 5.8 1.07 1.34 0.99 1.16 9 6 21 17 41 21 68 58 22.1 8.7% 19.7 8.8% 20.3 14.2% 21.4 14.2% 7 3 6 2 .278 .257 .251 .260 .276 .243 .276 .270 .315 .292 .270 .275 -2.08 -5.35 0.38 -1.78 340 673 186 298 A.J. Pollock | ARI | Age: 26 | Rk: 86 (294) Jose Tabata | PIT | Age: 25 | Rk: 89 (301) Position: OF Position: OF We had Pollock as a sleeper entering 2013, and the right-handed platoon man proved to have fantasy value. He’ll probably have the same role this season, splitting time with Gerardo Parra, but an impressive spring training could lead to more regular playing time for the 2nd-year OF. At his best, Pollock is a high-contact hitter with average walk rates and the ability to steal 30 bases in a full season. In Arizona, where the ball carries well, 450-500 PA of Pollock could result in 12-14 HR and 20-30 SB. Currently, Tabata is Pittsburgh’s starting left fielder. Playing alongside Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte definitely makes Tabata look a lot less dynamic, but he’s a 20 SB threat who should hit for a decent average, potentially into the .280s. His HR potential is limited -- you could tag 1 or 2 onto our projection but no more -- and his batting slot in front of the pitcher is about as bad as it gets. Realistically, Tabata is probably holding down this spot until Gregory Polanco is ready. Players with similar stat lines: Ichiro Suzuki; Alex Presley; Jemile Weeks 2011 2012 2013 2014 Players with similar stat lines: Jordan Pacheco; A.J. Pollock; Kolten Wong 31 137 117 93 482 384 8 64 54 2 8 7 8 38 38 1 12 17 .247 .269 .270 .279 .245 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 91 103 106 115 382 374 341 437 53 43 35 40 2011 2012 11.8 2013 17.0 2014 16.7 9.7 6.8 7.8 1.67 1.40 0.86 20.0 18.3 20.2 9.5% 6.6% 5.8% .257 .314 .311 -6.93 -0.71 -1.71 1094 247 294 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.0 15.5 13.2 13.7 10.5 7.8 6.7 7.1 2.78 3.09 2.59 1.42 4 3 6 6 21 16 33 46 16.8 6.7% 18.1 5.6% 18.5 10.2% 22.6 5.6% 16 8 3 16 .266 .243 .282 .280 .266 .255 .304 .270 .313 .287 .315 .316 -2.36 -4.74 -3.11 -1.84 362 603 434 301 Evan Gattis | ATL | Age: 27 | Rk: 87 (295) Oscar Taveras | STL | Age: 22 | Rk: 90 (304) Position: C/OF Position: OF If you listened to our catcher Profcast or have been following our top 200 coundown, you’ll notice Gattis took a huge, last-minute tumble. On the eve before the Draft Guide went out, we downgraded almost every aspect of Gattis’ line. His IFFB% last year was really bugging me, and I began to think he might struggle enough at the plate to cost himself some PA. When HR are all you can provide, you really, really need to hit a lot of them. Our projected 21 bombs is good, but it doesn’t quite make up for the rest. Players with similar stat lines: Matt Dominguez; Matt Davidson; Marcell Ozuna 2011 2012 2013 2014 105 135 382 487 44 52 2011 2012 2013 21.2 2014 26.3 5.5 7.8 0.92 0.80 21 21 65 71 14.5 17.1% 18.1 16.2% St. Louis’ top positional prospect, Taveras missed most of 2013 with an ankle injury. Per Rotowire, he’s been cleared to resume baseball activities, but he’s still not ready to go at 100%. Taveras is a potential middle-of-the-order bat who had an extremely impressive 2012 season at AA (531 PA, .83 R, 23 HR, 94 RBI, 10 SB, 7.9 BB%, 10.5 K%), and the Cardinals currently have a very crowded OF after acquiring Peter Bourjos. The team won’t call Taveras up to sit on the bench, so either Bourjos or Allen Craig is going to get screwed. Players with similar stat lines: Devin Mesoraco; Dayan Viciedo; A.J. Pierzynski 0 2 .243 .240 .238 .240 2011 2012 2013 2014 105 400 48 .255 .343 -1.00 -1.74 265 295 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.5 7.0 2.79 15 56 24.2 27.7% 2 .270 .270 .305 -1.89 304 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 81 Rajai Davis | DET | Age: 33 | Rk: 91 (308) Marcell Ozuna | MIA | Age: 23 | Rk: 94 (316) Position: OF Position: OF Davis will platoon with Andy Dirks in left field for the Tigers and serve as a pinch runner on days he sits. On the strength of his steals alone, Davis has ranked inside the top 60 OF for 2 straight seasons. He’s stolen between 40-50 bases in 4 of 5 years with 34 in the lone year he missed the mark, and we have him for 38 in 2014. Some leagues count Net SB or CS, so it’s worth noting that Davis posted a career-best 88.2% success rate last year with 39 Net SB. He’s generally around 75-80% and 30-35 Net SB. Ozuna was part of my league’s most boring and inconsequential trade last season: Ozuna for Dan Uggla. He appears to be fully recovered from a season-ending thumb injury last year, and he’ll likely get Miami’s starting CF job. While his inexperience and Miami’s overall lack of talent limit his immediate upside, Ozuna does have enough power to make note of. In 2010, 2011 and 2012 he hit 21, 23, and 24 HR, respectively, all at some level of A ball. Players with similar stat lines: Ben Revere; Nate McLouth; Ichiro Suzuki Players with similar stat lines: Trevor Plouffe; Ryan Ludwick; Mike Zunino 2011 2012 2013 2014 95 142 108 92 338 487 360 350 44 64 49 45 1 8 6 4 29 43 24 28 34 46 45 35 .238 .257 .260 .250 .203 .268 .253 .240 2011 2012 2013 2014 70 139 291 589 31 55 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.6 20.9 18.6 18.3 4.4 6.0 5.8 5.1 1.09 1.40 1.04 1.33 16.3 22.9 22.7 19.7 1.0% 7.3% 6.0% 4.5% .292 .314 .308 .299 -1.78 1.56 0.72 -2.03 309 131 168 308 2011 2012 2013 19.6 2014 20.4 4.5 4.6 1.42 0.79 3 18 32 65 21.1 4.2% 23.6 10.2% 5 2 .265 .240 .256 .250 .326 .276 -3.86 -2.13 500 316 Alex Presley | MIN | Age: 28 | Rk: 92 (314) Ichiro Suzuki | NYY | Age: 40 | Rk: 95 (320) Position: OF Position: OF Minnesota’s leadoff hitter, Presley will split time with Darin Mastroianni but wind up on the winning end of the platoon. Presley has 15-20 SB potential, but he’ll provide litte, if anything, in HR and RBI. If he was an everyday 700 PA leadoff man, Presley could muster an 80 R, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 30 SB season, but take about 67% of those numbers and you’re left with a probable best-case line for the Twins center fielder. I have a hard time imaging Ichiro wasting away as a bench player. The Yankees don’t need a Brett Gardner clone, and I have to believe they’ll trade him before the year is out. As I said in Andre Ethier’s profile, you can’t draft a player on the expectation that they’ll get traded unless the rumors are undeniably strong, and right now that’s not the case. Ichiro is a better defender than Carlos Beltran so maybe he can get some playing time in right when Beltran moves to DH, but things aren’t looking good for Ichiro. Players with similar stat lines: Ichiro Suzuki; A.J. Pollock; Rafael Furcal 2011 2012 2013 2014 52 104 57 138 231 370 195 450 27 46 17 61 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.3 19.5 20.0 17.6 5.6 4.9 4.6 5.6 1.81 2.59 2.11 4.84 4 10 3 4 20 25 15 32 22.9 8.3% 17.4 16.4% 23.2 8.6% 20.7 8.8% Players with similar stat lines: Alex Presley; A.J. Pollock; Jemile Weeks 9 9 1 15 .298 .237 .276 .270 .295 .274 .287 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 161 162 150 128 721 663 555 485 80 77 57 55 5 9 7 4 47 55 35 28 40 29 20 20 .272 .283 .262 .270 .280 .324 .292 .300 .349 .273 .336 .319 -3.63 -3.62 -5.46 -2.12 495 481 699 314 2011 9.6 2012 9.2 2013 11.4 2014 12.0 5.4 3.3 4.7 4.1 2.84 2.09 1.96 1.32 19.1 24.7 20.9 22.0 3.9% 6.5% 5.8% 3.1% .295 .300 .285 .301 2.34 2.21 -0.71 -2.21 88 107 248 320 Michael Morse | SF | Age: 32 | Rk: 93 (315) Dayan Viciedo | CHW | Age: 25 | Rk: 96 (321) Position: 1B/OF Position: OF In terms of fantasy value, there probably wasn’t a worse place for Morse to land than San Francisco. A .280-.290 hitter when everything is going right, Morse finds himself batting 7th in one of the 3 toughest hitter’s parks with some solid outfield competition coming off the bench. It will be interesting to see if Morse, who’s called the trainer’s table his “cot” on occasion, will hold up with a full-time role in the outfield. He’d be much better suited as a DH somewhere in the AL. Players with similar stat lines: Lonnie Chisenhall; Hunter Morris; John Mayberry 2011 2012 2013 2014 146 102 88 113 575 430 337 455 73 53 34 48 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.9 22.6 25.8 23.7 6.3 3.7 6.2 6.2 1.21 2.25 1.25 1.10 31 18 13 16 95 62 27 68 19.5 21.2% 20.1 23.4% 19.5 16.0% 18.5 13.6% The big loser when the White Sox acquired Adam Eaton, Viciedo is now relegated to platoon duty with Alejandro De Aza, and he’ll definitely get the short end of the stick there. Last year Viciedo followed up a 25 HR 2012 season with a disappointing 14 HR campaign, and he fell out of favor with Chicago because whatever positives he brought with his bat he promptly gave up in the field. I’m hoping that the 367 PA we project isn’t too optimistic, but it’s entirely possible that’s the case if Chicago’s OF stays healthy. Players with similar stat lines: Oscar Taveras; Devin Mesoraco; Wilson Ramos 2 0 0 0 .303 .291 .215 .250 .282 .295 .243 .280 2011 2012 2013 2014 29 147 124 93 113 543 473 367 11 64 43 46 .344 .339 .254 .328 4.32 -0.48 -4.50 -2.12 46 231 580 315 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.4 22.1 20.7 21.3 8.0 5.2 5.1 5.4 2.00 1.48 1.40 1.17 1 25 14 15 6 78 56 53 12.7 4.3% 22.1 20.5% 18.7 11.9% 19.5 16.0% 1 0 0 2 .255 .255 .265 .270 .210 .282 .248 .260 .321 .286 .308 .293 -6.51 0.26 -1.61 -2.21 1026 193 297 321 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 82 | Baseball Professor David Murphy | CLE | Age: 32 | Rk: 97 (324) David DeJesus | TB | Age: 34 | Rk: 100 (331) Position: OF Position: OF Murphy has tallied no fewer than 440 PA in any of the past 6 seasons, all of which he spent with the Rangers. Now an Indian, Murphy will be the left-handed complement to Ryan Raburn’s right-handed power. It remains to be seen what a new team, new environment, and new manager mean for Murphy’s playing time, but he’s been a slightly above average player for his career with 10-15 HR power and a .275 BA. Murphy is average, but during hot streaks he can be rostered. DeJesus is an undervalued real life player, and he also has value in fantasy leagues when used properly. There might not be a worse batter against left-handed pitchers in all of baseball, but against right-handers DeJesus more than holds his own. The contrast wasn’t always so stark, but over the last 3 years DeJesus hasn’t batted over .200 a single time against southpaws. If you’re into micromanaging your roster and you see Tampa Bay has a string of right-handed opponents ahead, scoop up DeJesus. Players with similar stat lines: Alberto Callaspo; Gordon Beckham; Grant Green 2011 2012 2013 2014 120 147 142 135 440 521 476 475 46 65 51 58 2011 2012 2013 2014 13.9 14.2 12.4 14.5 7.5 10.4 7.8 8.4 1.87 1.23 1.15 1.52 11 15 13 11 46 61 45 50 16.8 11.0% 21.2 10.9% 19.3 9.2% 19.7 9.9% Players with similar stat lines: Peter Bourjos; Yunel Escobar; Brandon Crawford 11 10 1 2 .275 .304 .220 .270 .261 .281 .260 .270 2011 2012 2013 2014 131 148 122 158 506 582 439 600 60 76 52 76 10 9 8 9 46 50 38 46 4 7 5 2 .240 .263 .251 .250 .242 .265 .241 .250 .299 .333 .227 .289 -1.18 1.28 -3.18 -2.25 264 141 439 324 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.0 15.3 18.0 16.7 8.9 10.5 8.9 9.7 1.15 1.16 1.07 1.18 20.2 23.5 19.2 18.8 7.7% 6.1% 6.6% 5.7% .274 .301 .295 .288 -2.49 -0.97 -2.52 -2.51 370 264 375 331 John Mayberry | PHI | Age: 30 | Rk: 98 (325) Andy Dirks | DET | Age: 28 | Rk: 101 (333) Position: 1B/OF Position: OF Philadelphia’s outfield is still sort of in flux and Ryan Howard is always an injury risk at first base, so it’s hard to tell exactly from where Mayberry’s at-bats will come. Still, we know he’s good enough to earn 350-400 PA with the potential for more, and I’d expect more power than last year’s disappointing 11 HR showing. His 11.3% HR/FB rate was lower than we should expect from a player with Mayberry’s raw strength. He has the upside of 20-22 HR, and maybe more if he somehow comes into near-full playing time Dirks turned heads in 2012, batting .322 with 8 HR, 35 RBI, and 56 R in just 344 PA. He wasn’t able to sustain that rate over more PA in 2013 as his BABIP fell to a more average rate. On the plus side, Dirks improved his BB%, though his K% went up as well, and he repeated his 24% line drive rate. Infield flies were a problem so Dirks will need to correct that if he’s going to get his BA back to the .285 mark or higher, but that’s not impossible given his contact rates. Players with similar stat lines: Jarrod Saltalamacchia; Mike Moustakas; Mike Zunino 2011 2012 2013 2014 104 149 134 132 296 479 384 417 37 53 47 50 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.6 23.2 23.4 21.3 8.8 7.1 7.0 8.2 1.03 1.83 1.16 2.14 15 14 11 17 49 46 39 58 17.8 17.4% 19.9 14.9% 20.5 11.3% 18.9 24.0% Players with similar stat lines: Juan Uribe; Yunel Escobar; Travis d’Arnaud 8 1 5 2 .273 .245 .227 .250 .262 .275 .239 .260 2011 2012 2013 2014 78 88 131 138 235 344 484 526 34 56 60 54 7 8 9 12 28 35 37 58 5 1 7 2 .251 .322 .256 .250 .239 .287 .280 .270 .293 .296 .273 .273 -1.46 -2.79 -2.97 -2.29 283 405 419 325 2011 2012 2013 2014 15.3 15.4 17.4 16.0 4.7 6.7 8.7 7.8 0.74 1.02 1.29 0.99 18.9 24.3 24.8 21.2 8.3% 8.2% 7.9% 7.9% .273 .365 .298 .281 -3.87 -1.75 -1.75 -2.52 528 321 316 333 Ryan Ludwick | CIN | Age: 35 | Rk: 99 (326) Lucas Duda | NYM | Age: 28 | Rk: 102 (340) Position: OF Position: 1B/OF Ludwick had a .275/26/80 season in 2012, ranking 61st among OF, but a shoulder injury limited him to just 38 games last season. With a limited skill set, all of his value comes from the long ball, but his HR totals have varied greatly over the last 5 years. Even if we toss his 37 HR 2008 season out, Ludwick has still been as low as 13 and as high as 26 across similar amounts of PA. He’s usually in the highteens to mid-20s, but that 6 or 7 HR gap is the difference between being the 1st bat of free agency and being left for dead in fantasy. With the additions of Curtis Granderson and Chris Young in the outfield and the late-season resurgence of Ike Davis at first base, it seems as if Duda has lost the confidence of the Mets front office. He has disappointed for 2 straight seasons, and unless he really dazzles in spring training it will be tough to see where Duda really fits in the 2014 picture. He has decent power (career .178 ISO) and on-base skills (career 11.3 BB%), but he hasn’t been able to harness those skills into a full-time role. Players with similar stat lines: Marcell Ozuna; Casey McGehee; Trevor Plouffe 2011 2012 2013 2014 139 125 38 120 558 472 140 483 56 53 7 55 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.2 20.6 20.7 21.5 9.1 8.9 7.1 8.5 0.72 0.77 0.88 1.15 13 26 2 15 75 80 12 68 19.4 7.5% 23.9 18.4% 23.8 4.9% 22.7 13.1% Players with similar stat lines: Nate Freiman; Kyle Blanks; Josmil Pinto 1 0 0 2 .237 .275 .240 .240 .210 .297 .235 .250 2011 2012 2013 2014 100 121 100 94 347 459 384 345 38 43 42 40 .287 .299 .293 .271 -1.72 0.63 -6.64 -2.37 304 174 928 326 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.4 26.1 26.6 26.1 9.5 11.1 14.3 11.9 0.79 0.83 0.66 1.49 10 15 15 13 50 57 33 40 22.5 9.3% 22.5 12.5% 19.8 14.3% 18.2 20.6% 1 1 0 9 .292 .239 .223 .270 .272 .252 .224 .250 .326 .301 .276 .322 -2.02 -2.86 -3.61 -2.64 332 411 484 340 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 2013: Starting Pitcher Year in Review Baseball Professor | 83 Have you every asked yourself, “I wonder if Player X is better suited for a head-to-head league or roto league?” Well, today’s your lucky day! Behold the H2H vs. Roto quadrant, where you can quickly identify which league your favorite player stands out in. The criteria is simple: Consistent players on a weekly basis are more valuable in H2H leagues due to their weekly nature while roto leagues lend themselves to a more patient approach. However, in roto leagues you like to have players who contribute stats across the board, but you don’t care when they come. We last year’s best Starting Pitchers on both consistency and statistical balance based on their 2013 performance (small sample size alert!) and plopped them on a chart. Take a look! Better in H2H More consistency Great Player Adam Wainwright Bronson Arroyo A.J. Burnett Jon Lester C.J. Wilson Justin Verlander Travis Wood Less balance Madison Bumgarner Kris Medlen Justin Masterson Clayton Kershaw Chris Sale Max Scherzer Ubaldo Jimenez A.J. Griffin Yu Darvish Cliff Lee Cole Hamels Chris Tillman Mike Leake Patrick Corbin Ricky Nolasco Mat Latos Dan Haren Jose Fernandez Mike Minor Gio Gonzalez Hisashi Iwakuma James Shields Homer Bailey Hiroki Kuroda More Hyun-Jin Ryu Felix Hernandez Lance Lynn Jordan Zimmermann Anibal Sanchez balance Bartolo Colon Julio Teheran John Lackey Andrew Cashner Ervin Santana Francisco Liriano Zack Greinke Stephen Strasburg Shelby Miller Bad Player Matt Moore Better in Roto Less consistency @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 84 | Baseball Professor If you find yourself wondering whether a certain pitcher deserved and ERA as high (or low) as he posted last year the quickest method to figure out the answer is comparing his ERA and FIP. We put those numbers in a nifty little chart for you to better visualize which pitchers underperformed and outperformed their ERAs last year. The chart is easy to read: If your player lands above the line then he was lucky (lower ERA than FIP), but if he’s below the line then he was unlucky and could be due for a better 2014 season. It’s as easy as that! ERA vs. FIP for Some of 2013's Notable SP 5.00 Lucky 4.50 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 Unlucky 2.00 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 Earned Run Average (ERA) A Closer Look...Starting Pitcher Superlatives Superlative Biggest Risk Safest Bet Mid-Round Sleeper Late-Round Sleeper Don't Believe the Hype Post-Hype Sleeper Best Value Pick Player You Always Own Player You Never Own Round I'll Draft SP Better in Points Leagues Better in Roto Leagues Better in H2H Leagues Better in Keeper Leagues Matt Commins Zack Greinke Yu Darvish Homer Bailey R.A. Dickey Masahiro Tanaka Tim Lincecum Danny Salazar R.A. Dickey Matt Moore 3rd Danny Salazar Matt Cain Cliff Lee Gerrit Cole Eric Broutman Cliff Lee Adam Wainwright Jeff Samardzija Ivan Nova Max Scherzer Phil Hughes Patrick Corbin Ivan Nova Clayton Kershaw 4th-5th then late Danny Salazar Homer Bailey James Shields Jose Fernandez Paul Beck Masahiro Tanaka Cliff Lee Danny Salazar Scott Kazmir Gerrit Cole Jarrod Parker Johnny Cueto Doug Fister CC Sabathia 5th-6th then late Cliff Lee Matt Cain Adam Wainwright Archie Bradley Adam Nodiff Jose Fernandez Clayton Kershaw Doug Fister Marco Estrada Michael Wacha Danny Duffy Matt Cain Kris Medlen Jeff Samardzija 8th Zack Greinke Jonny Cueto Ubaldo Jimenez Sonny Gray Jake Devereaux Cole Hamels Clayton Kershaw Johnny Cueto Corey Kluber Hyun Jin Ryu Matt Moore Jordan Zimmerman Doug Fister R.A. Dickey 6th Cliff Lee Yu Darvish Adam Wainwright Jose Fernandez @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 85 Starting Pitcher 2014 Preview Jake Devereaux’s Dynasty / Keeper League Watch List Rk Prospect 1 Archie Bradley Team Age ARI 21 2 Taijuan Walker SEA 21 3 Lucas Giolito WAS 19 4 Jon Gray COL 22 5 Dylan Bundy BAL 21 6 Robert Stephenson CIN 21 7 Kevin Gausman BAL 23 8 Kyle Zimmer 9 Noah Syndergaard 10 Jameson Taillon KC 22 NYM 21 PIT 22 ETA Comments The young righty possesses an overpowering curveball and fastball which helped him Mid 2014 dominate across two levels last season. Bradley has the ceiling of a true fantasy ace with 200K+ potential even in the less than friendly confines of Arizona. One of the most athletic baseball players in the minors regardless of position Walker has the potential to develop into one of the most reliable fantasy starters in baseball Early 2014 while pitching in a fantastic home ballpark. Control can still be an issue for the young righty so he will still need some seasoning. Remember this list is about pure fantasy potential so despite the fact he doesn’t even have a full season in the minors he is high on my list. Giolito showed he was healthy at 2016 the end of 2013 following tommy john surgery. With great command and one of the best fastballs in the minors he should move quickly on his way to being the next Nats ace. Coming out of college scouts were divided on whether he or Mark Appel was the best pitching prospect in the draft. I am here to tell you that from a fantasy prospective it is Late 2014 not close. He dominated high A ball last season striking out more than a batter per inning. He can make it work at Coors field. As you can tell tommy john surgery doesn’t scare me too much. Bundy is still the same 2015 bulldog on the mound who possesses three plus offerings and TJ surgery should be just a delay to his number one starter potential. Stephenson had a monster 2013 season where we saw the makings of the next 2015 frontline starter at Great American Ballpark. He showed great control early in his career and his floor is likely that of a number 2 starter. The former LSU ace had a pretty rough start to his major league career in Baltimore last Early 2014 season and he fell just short of losing his rookie eligibility. Gausman is one of the more polished pitchers on the list and will be a worst case scenario number 2 starter. Zimmer had a very strange year last season. His first half of the season was filled with disappointment as his ERA crept up over 5.00 despite strong strikeout numbers. As he Late 2014 moved up to AA ball and became more comfortable his strikeouts increased and he held batters to a .162 average. I think he has true number 1 potential albeit with more question marks than some on this list. If Syndergaard could only develop a reliable breaking ball he could be much higher on Mid 2014 this list. Even so the young Mets stud should be a superb #3 starter behind Harvey and Wheeler for years to come. The Pirates preach pitching to contact over trying to strike out oodles of guys which is Late 2014 why we have seen Taillon’s stock fall a bit this past year. The big righty still has reliable fantasy starter written all over him and has three above average pitches. Top 60 Rankings / Auction ($) Values Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Player Name Clayton Kershaw Yu Darvish Cliff Lee Adam Wainwright Madison Bumgarner David Price Stephen Strasburg Felix Hernandez Jose Fernandez Chris Sale Justin Verlander Max Scherzer Cole Hamels Matt Cain Anibal Sanchez Jordan Zimmermann Hisashi Iwakuma Homer Bailey Gio Gonzalez James Shields $ Value $31 $26 $21 $21 $20 $20 $20 $20 $18 $18 $16 $15 $15 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 Rank 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Player Name Mat Latos Gerrit Cole Zack Greinke Mike Minor Danny Salazar Julio Teheran Doug Fister Johnny Cueto Alex Cobb Shelby Miller Michael Wacha Sonny Gray R.A. Dickey Patrick Corbin Tony Cingrani Kris Medlen Hyun-Jin Ryu Masahiro Tanaka Ivan Nova A.J. Griffin $ Value $11 $11 $11 $10 $10 $10 $10 $9 $9 $9 $8 $8 $8 $7 $6 $6 $6 $6 $5 $5 Rank 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 Player Name Matt Garza Justin Masterson Jered Weaver Marco Estrada Jake Peavy A.J. Burnett Hiroki Kuroda Andrew Cashner Kyle Lohse Brandon Beachy Drew Smyly Chris Tillman Dan Haren Jon Lester Kevin Gausman CC Sabathia Ervin Santana Jeff Samardzija Derek Holland Tim Hudson @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com $ Value $5 $5 $4 $4 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $2 $2 $2 $2 $1 $1 Facebook 86 | Baseball Professor Clayton Kershaw | LAD | Age: 26 | Rk: 1 (6) Adam Wainwright | STL | Age: 32 | Rk: 4 (34) Position: SP Position: SP Kershaw has been a top-3 fantasy SP in each of the last 3 years, so is it any surprise he’s 1st at the position in our 2014 rankings? Despite being just 26 years old, Kershaw has a lot of innings on his arm, and he’s actually seen his K/9 fall almost every year of his career. Don’t be fooled, though. Kershaw’s K% sits around 25.0 every year, but his K/9 is falling because he’s getting more efficient. With all due respect to the other SP in our top 5, none have a chance of playing anything other than 2nd fiddle to Kershaw. Lost among Wainwright’s rebound season -- and it was a great one -- is that he was actually sort of hittable. His K% was over 20 like always, but he only put up a 1.07 WHIP despite some of the best control numbers we’ve ever seen. Opponents hit .244 against him, which is actually right in line with his career averages. It’ll be hard to replicate that historically great BB%, so expect his WHIP to rise above 1.10. Don’t get us wrong, we love Wainwright -- he’s in our top 5 after all -- but just don’t draft him expecting a repeat of his elite WHIP. Players with similar stat lines: Cliff Lee; Adam Wainwright; Yu Darvish Players with similar stat lines: Felix Hernandez; David Price; Madison Bumgarner 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 33 33 33 233.1 227.2 236.0 231.0 21-5 14-9 16-9 18-5 0 0 0 0 248 229 232 225 0.98 1.02 0.92 1.01 2.28 2.53 1.83 2.35 2.47 2.89 2.39 2.55 2011 2012 2013 2014 27.2 25.4 25.6 24.3 5.9 7.0 5.7 5.9 1.12 1.38 1.47 1.40 .204 .204 .192 .203 .269 .262 .251 .265 6.7% 8.1% 5.8% 5.2% 10.17 7.94 10.21 8.35 5 7 4 6 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 34 33 2011 2012 22.1 2013 22.9 2014 22.0 198.2 14-13 241.2 19-9 229.0 18-7 6.3 3.7 5.1 1.93 1.78 1.74 0 0 0 184 219 209 1.25 1.07 1.14 3.94 2.94 2.89 3.10 2.55 3.03 .254 .244 .233 .315 .305 .290 9.9% 8.1% 10.2% 2.10 7.30 4.77 110 9 34 Yu Darvish | TEX | Age: 27 | Rk: 2 (18) Madison Bumgarner | SF | Age: 24 | Rk: 5 (35) Position: SP Position: SP Darvish’s rookie season was great -- 27.1 K%, 3.29 FIP -- but he blew that out of the water in 2013. The walks were still an issue, albeit not as much, but Darvish struck out a whopping 277 batters, the highest total in the league since Randy Johnson struck out 290 in 2004 -- a full decade ago. While his punchout prowess is immensely valuable, Darvish gets docked for those free passes, which drive his WHIP to non-elite status. Will he be able to keep the walks under control? His 2nd half BB% (10.9) was higher than his 1st (8.5) so we’ll see. Bumgarner has slowly but steadily moved into the top 5 at the position. He ranked 22nd after the 2011 season, 14th after 2012, and 8th after 2013, and now he finds himself ahead of guys like David Price, Stephen Strasburg, and Felix Hernandez. We’ve all felt Bumgarner’s greatness coming, and the fact that he has dominant splits against left-handers and at home ensure that Bumgarner will, at worst, be a borderline top 5-10 SP. Just 24 years old this spring, Bumgarner is going to be very good for a very long time. Players with similar stat lines: David Price; Adam Wainwright; Felix Hernandez 2011 2012 2013 2014 29 32 33 2011 2012 27.1 2013 32.9 2014 29.3 Players with similar stat lines: Stephen Strasburg; Cliff Lee; David Price 191.1 209.2 213.0 16-9 13-9 17-7 0 0 0 221 277 257 1.28 1.07 1.12 3.90 2.83 3.09 3.29 3.28 2.70 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 32 31 32 10.9 9.5 9.1 1.46 1.08 1.01 .218 .193 .193 .295 .264 .273 9.1% 14.4% 6.7% 3.13 6.72 5.50 80 12 18 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.6 22.5 24.8 24.5 204.2 13-13 208.1 16-11 201.1 13-9 210.0 15-8 5.5 5.8 7.7 6.3 1.37 1.44 1.33 1.34 0 0 0 0 191 191 199 209 1.21 1.11 1.03 1.06 3.21 3.37 2.77 3.01 2.67 3.50 3.05 2.78 .255 .231 .199 .207 .322 .276 .251 .269 6.2% 11.7% 8.2% 6.3% 3.16 4.94 5.32 4.68 69 31 30 35 Cliff Lee | PHI | Age: 35 | Rk: 3 (19) David Price | TB | Age: 28 | Rk: 6 (38) Position: SP Position: SP The vast majority of “experts” have Lee outside the top 5 SP, but I don’t understand why. He’s finished 4th and 5th among SP in 2 of the last 3 years (2011, 2013) and has posted WHIPs of 1.03 or lower in 3 of the last 4 seasons. His ERA has been under 3.00 in 2 of the last 3 years, and he puts up these great rate stats over a whopping 220 IP. He might win fewer games than the rest of the elite SP, but wins are one of the more easily streamable stats in fantasy. You can’t find ERA and WHIP dominance on the waiver wire. Price’s ranking around the web is lower than I would have expected. Of the 30+ “expert” rankings on FantasyPros, all but one have Price listed 8th or lower. Most have him in the 11-13 range among SP. Frankly, I don’t get it. Price finished 4th among SP in 2012 but struggled through some early arm injuries last year before turning it on late. His 2nd half ERA (2.87) was exactly what we’d expect from one of the game’s most dominant left-handers, and that’s exactly the sort of production everyone should expect going forward. Players with similar stat lines: Madison Bumgarner; Stephen Strasburg; David Price Players with similar stat lines: Madison Bumgarner; Stephen Strasburg; Adam Wainwright 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 30 31 31 232.2 211.0 222.2 211.0 17-8 6-9 14-8 15-6 0 0 0 0 238 207 222 207 1.03 1.11 1.01 1.02 2.40 3.16 2.87 2.95 2.60 3.13 2.82 2.73 2011 2012 2013 2014 34 31 27 33 2011 2012 2013 2014 25.9 24.4 25.3 24.4 4.6 3.3 3.7 3.6 1.43 1.22 1.33 1.26 .226 .253 .230 .222 .291 .309 .287 .282 9.0% 11.8% 10.9% 8.2% 8.33 3.36 6.45 5.32 9 64 15 19 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.8 24.5 20.4 23.8 224.1 12-13 211.0 20-5 186.2 10-8 216.0 17-7 6.9 7.1 3.7 6.0 1.20 1.97 1.35 1.46 0 0 0 0 218 205 151 210 1.14 1.10 1.10 1.08 3.49 2.56 3.33 3.26 3.32 3.05 3.03 2.96 .227 .224 .251 .213 .281 .285 .298 .271 9.7% 10.5% 8.6% 8.2% 3.77 7.60 1.93 4.59 56 9 119 38 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 87 Stephen Strasburg | WAS | Age: 25 | Rk: 7 (41) Chris Sale | CHW | Age: 25 | Rk: 10 (53) Position: SP Position: SP I took a lot of heat for drafting Strasburg ahead of Max Scherzer in an early mock draft, but I’ll make that pick every time. In understand the concerns over Strasburg’s health, but he struck out over a batter per inning last year with a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Will he throw 200+ IP? Honestly, I don’t know, but I do know that the innings he does pitch will be elite and the Nats as a whole aren’t going to disappoint again. Owning Strasburg isn’t for the faint of heart, but you don’t win fantasy championships without a few signature draft picks. Players with similar stat lines: Jose Fernandez; Madison Bumgarner; David Price Sale successfully made the leap from RP to SP in 2012 and last year he showed it wasn’t a fluke. Had he not suffered through an 11-14 season, his 3.07 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 226 K would have made him a top 5 SP. Last year, only Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer topped Sale in those 3 categories, and we think Sale will be right near each of those marks in 2014. Again, it’s the wins that holds him back in our rankings, but if you’re in a league that can stream SP for W and K, Sale should be drafted more aggressively. Even ahead of Hernandez. Players with similar stat lines: Jose Fernandez; Stephen Strasburg; Justin Verlander 2011 2012 2013 2014 5 28 30 32 24.0 159.1 183.0 192.0 1-1 15-6 8-9 14-8 0 0 0 0 24 197 191 211 0.71 1.15 1.05 1.06 1.50 3.16 3.00 2.97 1.28 2.82 3.21 3.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 58 30 30 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 27.3 30.2 26.1 27.0 2.3 7.4 7.7 7.3 1.05 1.34 1.66 1.54 .174 .226 .205 .193 .242 .311 .263 .256 0.0% 11.5% 11.1% 9.4% -3.77 4.18 3.07 4.36 505 41 71 41 2011 2012 2013 2014 27.4 24.9 26.1 26.0 71.0 2-2 192.0 17-8 214.1 11-14 219.0 12-9 9.4 6.6 5.3 5.8 1.55 1.40 1.46 1.42 8 0 0 0 79 192 226 233 1.11 1.14 1.07 1.09 2.79 3.05 3.07 3.11 3.12 3.27 3.17 2.86 .201 .234 .228 .214 .264 .294 .289 .280 10.9% 11.6% 12.5% 8.9% -2.17 5.19 4.78 3.82 345 26 38 53 Felix Hernandez | SEA | Age: 28 | Rk: 8 (43) Justin Verlander | DET | Age: 31 | Rk: 11 (70) Position: SP Position: SP King Felix is fantasy’s ol’ reliable, but I think he’s getting overvalued. Most have him as a top 5 SP, but let’s not forget that Hernandez has only once had a very good WHIP -- 1.06 in 2010 -- and his next best WHIP is just 1.13. That’s still above average, but you don’t crack the top 5 with a WHIP that high unless you strike out 250+ (Darvish) or you’re a regular 19+ game winner (Wainwright, 19+ in 3 of 4 years). Say what you want about wins being unpredictable (not wholly true) or Seattle’s improved offense, but Hernandez isn’t a 19-20 game winner. Players with similar stat lines: Adam Wainwright; Max Scherzer; Justin Verlander 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 33 31 31 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.0 23.8 26.3 24.6 233.2 14-14 232.0 13-9 204.1 12-10 231.0 15-8 7.0 6.0 5.6 6.0 1.64 1.71 1.89 1.84 Last year, Verlander stumbled to a 1.31 WHIP after seasons of 0.92 and 1.06 in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Though we don’t think he’ll get back under 1.10, we have him pegged for a solid bounceback (1.14). We wouldn’t have been so bullish if it weren’t for September (2.27 ERA) and October (1.13 ERA) when the Tigers’ co-ace looked more like his former MVP self. News of some nagging injuries doesn’t bother us in the least. Though Verlander’s stuff is unquestionably a little diminished, he’s a professional pitcher and still pretty elite. Players with similar stat lines: Max Scherzer; Anibal Sanchez; Cole Hamels 0 0 0 0 222 223 216 236 1.22 1.14 1.13 1.15 3.47 3.06 3.04 2.94 3.13 2.84 2.61 2.65 2011 2012 2013 2014 34 33 34 33 .245 .240 .239 .227 .307 .308 .314 .298 9.5% 7.7% 10.0% 7.2% 3.73 5.46 4.25 4.30 57 23 48 43 2011 2012 2013 2014 25.8 25.0 23.5 23.9 251.0 24-5 238.1 17-8 218.1 13-12 222.0 14-9 5.9 6.3 8.1 6.4 0.96 1.19 0.99 1.00 0 0 0 0 250 239 217 220 0.92 1.06 1.31 1.14 2.40 2.64 3.46 3.21 2.99 2.94 3.28 3.01 .191 .215 .251 .224 .236 .273 .316 .286 8.8% 8.3% 7.8% 7.1% 11.69 8.45 2.44 3.18 2 6 96 70 Jose Fernandez | MIA | Age: 21 | Rk: 9 (914) Max Scherzer | DET | Age: 29 | Rk: 12 (73) Position: SP Position: SP Fernandez isn’t the next Felix Hernandez -- he’s better. Unfortunately, Hernandez will crush him in IP (we project 231 from Hernandez and 195 from Fernandez) and Miami is a terrible team. Still, Fernandez made our top 10 despite the uninspiring IP total. In fact, the next-ranked SP with fewer than 200 IP is Anibal Sanchez at 15. For 2014, most people are valuing Fernandez properly, but his hype is off the charts in keeper and dynasty formats. It’s deserved, but even in a keeper draft I wouldn’t take Fernandez before Price or Strasburg. Players with similar stat lines: Stephen Strasburg; Chris Sale; Madison Bumgarner 2011 2012 2013 2014 28 32 2011 2012 2013 27.5 2014 27.0 We’ll probably take some heat for ranking Scherzer this low, but his 2013 value was buoyed by his 21 wins and 0.97 WHIP. With a .259 BABIP last year and nothing spectacular in his batted ball profile, we can only conclude that Scherzer’s .196 OBA should instead be around .220. That’s still great, but it’s also the difference between a phenomenal WHIP and a good WHIP. The 1.16 mark we project would still easily be the 2nd-best of his career (1.25 is currently his next closest), so I don’t think we’re too pessimistic. Players with similar stat lines: Justin Verlander; Anibal Sanchez; Homer Bailey 172.2 195.0 12-6 13-7 0 0 187 214 0.98 1.06 2.19 3.05 2.73 2.62 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 32 32 32 195.0 187.2 214.1 208.0 15-9 16-7 21-3 15-5 0 0 0 0 174 231 240 219 1.35 1.27 0.97 1.16 4.43 3.74 2.90 3.26 4.14 3.27 2.74 3.58 8.5 7.8 1.36 1.23 .180 .193 .240 .264 7.1% 6.3% 5.44 4.02 28 914 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.9 29.4 28.7 25.4 6.7 7.6 6.7 7.1 1.02 0.88 0.81 0.86 .269 .248 .196 .219 .314 .333 .259 .274 12.6% 11.6% 7.6% 10.2% 0.49 3.64 8.77 3.07 169 58 6 73 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 88 | Baseball Professor Cole Hamels | PHI | Age: 30 | Rk: 13 (81) Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | Age: 28 | Rk: 16 (89) Position: SP Position: SP If you’re making a list of undervalued SP to target, Hamels should be number 1. We had him higher on this list (above Max Scherzer even) before news broke that tendinitis will likely cost him Opening Day, but Hamels is as solid and reliable as ever. His 3.60 ERA last year looks bad for an ace-caliber SP, but that his season numbers obscure the 2nd-half clinic Hamels put on -- 2.97 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 23.0 K%, 4.4 BB%. Hamels held batters to a .233/.274/.360 slash after the break, meaning he made the entire league look worse than Zack Cozart. Perennial 2nd-half slides have Zimmermann falling in most rankings -- the highest I’ve seen him is 15th and most have him in the 18-20 range -- but I think it’s just a matter of time before Zimmermann makes it through a whole season without a serious late-summer slide. He was able to pitch 17.2 more innings last year in the same number of games, so his durability is still improving. Few pitchers can match the control that Zimmermann displays, which, combined with low fly ball rates, ensure his ERA will be among the game’s best. Players with similar stat lines: Anibal Sanchez; Justin Verlander; Gerrit Cole Players with similar stat lines: Matt Cain; Hisashi Iwakuma; Doug Fister 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 31 33 33 216.0 215.1 220.0 208.0 14-9 17-6 8-14 13-9 0 0 0 0 194 216 202 197 0.99 1.12 1.16 1.12 2.79 3.05 3.60 3.15 3.05 3.30 3.26 3.14 2011 2012 2013 2014 26 32 32 32 161.1 195.2 213.1 207.0 8-11 12-8 19-9 16-8 0 0 0 0 124 153 161 167 1.15 1.17 1.09 1.13 3.18 2.94 3.25 3.30 3.16 3.51 3.36 3.15 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.8 24.9 22.3 23.0 5.2 6.0 5.5 5.8 1.60 1.24 1.17 1.22 .211 .234 .242 .221 .255 .290 .295 .276 9.9% 11.9% 9.1% 8.0% 6.05 6.22 1.89 2.68 22 17 121 81 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.7 19.0 18.6 19.6 4.7 5.3 4.6 5.0 0.94 1.30 1.52 1.40 .247 .247 .235 .230 .291 .288 .271 .278 5.9% 9.2% 9.5% 7.0% 0.64 3.16 4.95 2.41 157 77 35 89 Matt Cain | SF | Age: 29 | Rk: 14 (83) Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | Age: 33 | Rk: 17 (97) Position: SP Position: SP Even more disappointing than Cole Hamels was Cain, who finished the 2013 season with half as many wins (8) and twice as many losses (10) as he had in 2012. He only pitched 184.1 innings (he hadn’t even been under 217.2 since 2007), and his 4.00 ERA was his worst since his rookie season. Why do we have Cain 14th? Like Hamels, Cain’s 2nd half was dominant -- 2.36 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 18.8 K%, 6.1 BB% -- and he didn’t lose velocity or show any real signs of age. We think it’s all systems go for 2014. Iwakuma parlayed a fantastic 2nd half of 2012 into a full season of dominance in 2013. Though Iwakuma stumbled a little in July (4.15 ERA) and August (3.97 ERA), he picked things up in September (0.76 ERA) and finished the year as fantasy’s 6th-ranked SP. As much as I love Iwakuma -- and trust me, I love a ground ball pitcher with great control and average or batter strikeout rates -- there’s no denying that last year’s 2.66 ERA isn’t going to repeat itself. Iwakuma is a low3.00s ERA SP, and without elite K rates this is the best he can rank. Players with similar stat lines: Jordan Zimmermann; Anibal Sanchez; Cole Hamels 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 32 30 33 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.7 22.0 20.8 20.4 221.2 12-11 219.1 16-5 184.1 8-10 210.0 15-10 7.0 5.8 7.2 6.6 1.07 0.90 0.94 0.93 Players with similar stat lines: Johnny Cueto; Zack Greinke; Mat Latos 0 0 0 0 179 193 158 175 1.08 1.04 1.16 1.10 2.88 2.79 4.00 3.35 2.91 3.40 3.93 3.56 2011 2012 2013 2014 .212 .217 .226 .211 .260 .259 .260 .251 3.7% 8.4% 10.8% 7.7% 4.45 6.79 0.18 2.64 42 12 199 83 2011 2012 19.5 2013 21.4 2014 19.8 30 33 33 125.1 219.2 211.0 9-5 14-6 16-9 2 0 0 101 185 175 1.28 1.01 1.18 3.16 2.66 3.17 4.35 3.44 3.43 8.3 4.9 6.2 1.91 1.45 1.40 .247 .218 .233 .282 .252 .279 17.0% 11.8% 8.6% 0.90 5.96 2.16 162 21 97 Anibal Sanchez | DET | Age: 30 | Rk: 15 (85) Homer Bailey | CIN | Age: 28 | Rk: 18 (98) Position: SP Position: SP Like Jose Fernandez, though obviously not to the same degree, Sanchez ranks highly despite pitching under 200 innings because of the production he can bring on a per-IP basis. Last year I was the most bullish “expert” on FantasyPros regarding Sanchez, and it turns out I wasn’t even bullish enough! The Ks are legit, and despite never topping 200 innings before, Sanchez usually makes his 30+ starts each season. Surprisingly, despite pitching on a staff that’s claimed the 2 of the last 3 AL Cy Young winners, it was Sanchez who took home the AL ERA title. Bailey’s rise to fantasy stardom has been both steady and sudden. On the surface those 2 adjectives seem contradictory, but consider that Bailey has started at least 19 games in each of his first 5 years, and for the most part he got a little bit better each year. He was never rosterable for a full year, but he was starting to turn heads. Then, once he eclipsed 200 IP in 2012, Bailey emerged as a top 40 SP (36) and then he improved upon that last year (24). If he wins more than 11 games or pitches to his FIP (3.31) he’ll be top 20. Players with similar stat lines: Cole Hamels; Homer Bailey; Justin Verlander Players with similar stat lines: Zack Greinke; Julio Teheran; Mat Latos 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 31 29 32 196.1 195.2 182.0 195.0 8-9 9-13 14-8 14-7 0 0 0 0 202 167 202 198 1.28 1.27 1.15 1.15 3.67 3.86 2.57 3.17 3.35 3.53 2.39 3.31 2011 2012 2013 2014 22 33 32 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 24.3 20.4 27.1 24.5 7.7 5.9 7.2 6.7 1.24 1.44 1.39 1.40 .246 .261 .226 .221 .310 .310 .307 .279 10.4% 10.7% 5.8% 10.8% 0.93 0.52 4.73 2.54 141 180 40 85 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.9 19.2 23.4 22.4 132.0 9-7 208.0 13-10 209.0 11-12 211.0 15-10 5.9 6.0 6.4 6.4 1.03 1.27 1.34 1.29 0 0 0 0 106 168 199 197 1.28 1.24 1.12 1.17 4.43 3.68 3.49 3.39 4.06 3.97 3.31 3.24 .260 .253 .231 .227 .296 .290 .284 .283 11.5% 11.5% 10.2% 8.3% -1.62 2.04 3.04 2.14 297 115 75 98 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 89 Gio Gonzalez | WAS | Age: 28 | Rk: 19 (104) Gerrit Cole | PIT | Age: 23 | Rk: 22 (114) Position: SP Position: SP Gonzalez’s value has bounced around, but he’s always delivered one thing: strikeouts. He’s probably (definitely) not as good as his 21-8 record and 2.89 ERA from 2012 suggest, but surely he’s better than last year’s 11-8 record. His ERA will probably settle in around where it was last year (3.36), and he’ll continue to deliver about a strikeout per inning, but Gonzalez is our first real “WHIP-killer” in our rankings (and even there he’s still pretty average). Personally, I don’t like owning players like Gonzalez, but this is where he’ll rank. And the 1st of the exciting sophomore SP have emerged! Last year with the Pirates, Cole started slowly before picking up steam down the stretch. His K% topped 21.0 in 2 of the last 3 months, including a 31.2 K% in September, and his 1.69 ERA and 1.51 FIP in the season’s final month have fantasy owners salivating. Unlike most of 2014’s other exciting 2nd year SP, Cole actually has a chance to rack up 185+ innings, and that’s why he’s ranked above other similarly exciting starters. Players with similar stat lines: James Shields; Mat Latos; Johnny Cueto 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 32 32 33 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.8 25.2 23.4 23.6 202.0 16-12 199.1 21-8 195.2 11-8 201.0 16-8 10.5 9.3 9.3 9.0 1.39 1.61 1.32 1.42 Players with similar stat lines: Mike Minor; Michael Wacha; Sonny Gray 0 0 0 0 197 207 192 201 1.32 1.13 1.25 1.23 3.12 2.89 3.36 3.24 3.64 2.82 3.41 3.21 2011 2012 2013 2014 .229 .201 .228 .216 .287 .267 .286 .280 8.9% 5.8% 9.7% 7.2% 3.27 6.86 1.96 2.03 65 11 116 104 2011 2012 2013 21.3 2014 23.6 19 30 117.1 189.0 10-7 13-8 0 0 100 184 1.17 1.13 3.22 3.38 2.91 2.38 6.0 6.1 1.88 1.86 .249 .223 .308 .296 8.1% 3.9% -0.12 1.79 216 114 James Shields | KC | Age: 32 | Rk: 20 (108) Zack Greinke | LAD | Age: 30 | Rk: 23 (116) Position: SP Position: SP In his first season with the Royals, Shields pitched 228.2 innings of the type of ball the Royals wanted. Unfortunately, it wasn’t exactly what fantasy owners wanted. Don’t get me wrong, Shields’ 3.15 ERA was great, but he lost over a full K/9 and his 1.24 WHIP was higher than the 1.16-1.20 that everyone expected. While we think Shields gains back some of his Ks, he’s not a sub-1.15 WHIP guy anymore. Most of his value comes from pitching 220+ innings with an above average ERA and good K rates, but Shields isn’t dominant anywhere. Any shortlist of 2013’s 2nd-half surgers needs to include Greinke, whose 1.85 ERA after the break was the 3rd best behind Clayton Kershaw and Ubaldo Jimenez. Ranked 23rd among all SP, I don’t think you’ll find anyone lower on Greinke than us -- I haven’t seen him lower than 22nd anywhere. Our problem with Greinke is that he doesn’t usually have a very good WHIP (barring 2013, which I’m not buying), and his K rates (and even his ERAs) are too erratic. There’s no doubt Greinke has top 10 SP talent, but he’s too unsteady. Players with similar stat lines: Gio Gonzalez; Mat Latos; Shelby Miller 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 33 34 33 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.1 23.6 20.7 21.8 249.1 16-12 227.2 15-10 228.2 13-9 228.0 15-8 6.7 6.1 7.2 7.0 1.31 1.81 1.18 1.34 Players with similar stat lines: Shelby Miller; Alex Cobb; Homer Bailey 0 0 0 0 225 223 196 210 1.04 1.17 1.24 1.22 2.82 3.52 3.15 3.29 3.42 3.47 3.47 3.39 2011 2012 2013 2014 28 34 28 32 171.2 212.1 177.2 197.0 16-6 15-5 15-4 15-7 0 0 0 0 201 200 148 179 1.20 1.20 1.11 1.18 3.83 3.48 2.63 3.31 2.98 3.10 3.23 3.27 .215 .238 .247 .231 .258 .292 .298 .286 11.1% 13.4% 8.6% 8.8% 7.28 4.75 3.16 1.87 13 36 68 108 2011 2012 2013 2014 28.1 23.0 20.6 21.7 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.1 1.54 1.69 1.49 1.57 .242 .246 .229 .230 .318 .306 .276 .284 13.6% 10.2% 8.6% 9.5% 3.13 3.91 3.95 1.73 70 49 50 116 Mat Latos | CIN | Age: 26 | Rk: 21 (111) Mike Minor | ATL | Age: 26 | Rk: 24 (119) Position: SP Position: SP A “t” isn’t the only thing Mat Latos is lacking -- where are the strikeouts? After debuting at 9.21 K/9 in 2010 with the Padres, Latos has now posted 2 straight seasons of sub-8.00 K/9 ball. His WHIPs have progressively gotten worse, rising from 1.08 in 2010 to 1.21 last year, and while he did pitch 210.2 innings last year, there are plenty of SP with average K rates who do that. Sorry, Mat(t), but your 3.16 ERA isn’t fooling me. I desperately want to put you in the top 15, but we’re withholding that status from you until you get your act together. Minor is somewhat reminiscent of Homer Bailey’s -- lots of hype, average early returns, breakout season that coincides with first 200 IP year -- but Minor did it more quickly. Last season that Atlanta lefty finished the year 15th among SP thanks to a pair of impressive rate stats (3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) over such a large IP total, but Minor will be hard-pressed to repeat 2013’s success. We put him back above 8.00 K/9, but he’s a fly ball pitcher who posted a 3.64 xFIP last year, and fly ball pitchers are prone to larger ERA swings. Players with similar stat lines: Shelby Miller; Zack Greinke; James Shields Players with similar stat lines: Gerrit Cole; Michael Wacha; Sonny Gray 2011 2012 2013 2014 31 33 32 33 194.1 209.1 210.2 211.0 9-14 14-4 14-7 15-7 0 0 0 0 185 185 187 189 1.18 1.16 1.21 1.20 3.47 3.48 3.16 3.22 3.16 3.85 3.10 3.54 2011 2012 2013 2014 15 30 32 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.2 21.6 21.2 21.4 7.8 7.5 6.6 7.1 1.04 1.26 1.34 1.27 .228 .227 .242 .225 .284 .266 .299 .275 7.3% 11.8% 6.9% 9.0% 1.84 3.71 3.35 1.83 113 57 66 111 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.3 19.9 22.1 22.0 82.2 5-3 179.1 11-10 204.2 13-9 198.0 13-9 8.3 7.7 5.6 6.4 1.05 0.81 0.82 0.80 0 0 0 0 77 145 181 180 1.49 1.15 1.09 1.13 4.14 4.12 3.21 3.38 3.39 4.38 3.37 3.38 .282 .226 .229 .221 .350 .252 .272 .271 8.0% 11.7% 8.8% 7.4% -3.49 1.12 3.80 1.69 467 151 53 119 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 90 | Baseball Professor Danny Salazar | CLE | Age: 24 | Rk: 25 (122) Johnny Cueto | CIN | Age: 28 | Rk: 28 (130) Position: SP Position: SP If you’re reading this, you’ve stumbled upon one of my favorite young SP. I’ve repeatedly said that Salazar reminds me of Yu Darvish on a per-IP basis -- Darvish is better, but not by much -- and that’s exciting to think about. Not only did Salazar post dominant strikeout numbers at all stops last year, but his walk rates were almost equally as impressive. Innings will limit his value as I doubt he’ll top 165170 IP this year, and we still need to see if he can do it over a full MLB season, but you can afford a gamble like Salazar as your SP3. Cueto has topped 185.1 innings just once in his 6 seasons (217 in 2012). Injuries have been his biggest downfall, but he’s reportedly trying out some new mechanics this spring that should help keep him on the field. Hopefully it works because when Cueto stays healthy, he’s a borderline top-15 SP. His K rate has been on the rise recently and his control has made him an above average contributor in WHIP, so all that remains to be seen is whether the Reds should-be ace can stay healthy and return to his 2012 form. Players with similar stat lines: Julio Teheran; Michael Wacha; Mike Minor 2011 2012 2013 2014 10 30 2011 2012 2013 30.8 2014 28.6 Players with similar stat lines: Shelby Miller; Mat Latos; Hisashi Iwakuma 52.0 173.0 2-3 12-9 0 0 65 207 1.13 1.18 3.12 3.28 3.16 3.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 24 33 11 32 7.1 7.7 0.86 0.81 .224 .223 .298 .302 13.7% 9.1% -3.33 1.64 459 122 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.5 19.1 21.1 19.6 156.0 9-5 217.0 19-9 60.2 5-2 209.0 16-10 7.5 5.5 7.4 6.9 1.78 1.66 2.10 1.83 0 0 0 0 104 170 51 173 1.09 1.17 1.05 1.21 2.31 2.78 2.82 3.26 3.45 3.27 3.81 3.15 .214 .248 .206 .228 .249 .296 .236 .281 5.8% 7.9% 17.1% 6.2% 1.79 5.68 -2.45 1.50 114 20 369 130 Julio Teheran | ATL | Age: 23 | Rk: 26 (127) Alex Cobb | TB | Age: 26 | Rk: 29 (131) Position: SP Position: SP Always a top prospect in the minors, Teheran wasted no time delivering in the bigs. If it wasn’t for Mike Minor, Teheran might have led the Braves staff, and with a 2.97 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 25.4 K% after the break, Teheran saved his best stuff for the 2nd half. We project more of the same, but like Miller before him, he falls a few spots in our rankings due to a large ERA-FIP gap that suggests a repeat of last year’s ERA will be difficult. It doesn’t help that he’s a fly ball pitcher, though his 10.1% HR/FB last year was average. The more I study Cobb, the more I like him. Usually there’s an indirect correlation between strikeout rate and ground ball rate, but not with Cobb. As it turns out, his best strikeout pitches are his ground ball inducing offerings. That means when batters actually make contact, they hit it on the ground. I can’t think of a better type of starter. Cobb came back strong after a line drive to the head sidelined him for 2 months last June, and now all that’s left to prove is that he can make it through a full MLB season. He’ll do that in 2014. Players with similar stat lines: Alex Cobb; R.A. Dickey; Shelby Miller 2011 2012 2013 2014 5 2 30 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 11.5 20.8 22.0 23.8 19.2 1-1 6.1 0-0 185.2 14-8 197.0 14-11 9.2 4.2 5.8 7.1 0.65 0.50 0.92 0.85 Players with similar stat lines: Julio Teheran; Shelby Miller; Zack Greinke 0 0 0 0 10 5 170 196 1.47 0.95 1.17 1.19 5.03 5.68 3.20 3.39 5.87 1.99 3.69 3.43 2011 2012 2013 2014 9 23 22 30 52.2 136.1 143.1 196.0 3-2 11-9 11-3 14-8 0 0 0 0 37 106 134 186 1.33 1.25 1.15 1.19 3.42 4.03 2.76 3.30 3.61 3.67 3.36 3.15 .266 .217 .242 .222 .262 .278 .288 .279 12.9% 0.0% 10.1% 8.2% -6.00 -6.61 3.03 1.58 765 846 76 127 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.5 18.6 23.2 22.6 9.4 7.0 7.8 7.2 2.05 2.77 2.48 2.68 .243 .250 .226 .222 .284 .295 .279 .282 7.0% 12.8% 14.8% 11.2% -3.91 -0.46 1.72 1.49 521 230 132 131 Doug Fister | WAS | Age: 30 | Rk: 27 (128) Shelby Miller | STL | Age: 23 | Rk: 30 (133) Position: SP Position: SP Moving from the AL to the NL helps a pitcher’s K total by something on the order of 7-10 K per year for a 200-inning starter, and Fister is probably the most notable name to be making the transition in 2014. Fister ranked 20th among SP in 2011 and hasn’t cracked the top 45 in either of the last two years, but that doesn’t stop us from projecting big things from the Nats’ newest toy. One of baseball’s best ground ball and control SP, I’ll always make room for a guy like Fister. Even if his Ks and ERA are average, he’ll never kill your WHIP. I used to think that 2-pitch pitchers, like Miller, needed to develop a 3rd pitch to become successful. Research I did on the matter shows that’s not the case. If a pitcher has 2 dominant offerings, he can remain dominant. A pair of great pitches is exactly what Miller has. He was shut down late last year after just 173.1 IP but still ranked 20th among SP thanks to some great production during his 31 games. He’s poised to take another step forward this year, but he falls to 30 in our rankings because his 3.06 ERA is going to be tough to repeat. Players with similar stat lines: Mike Minor; Alex Cobb; Sonny Gray 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 26 33 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.7 20.4 18.1 19.6 216.1 11-13 161.2 10-10 208.2 14-9 202.0 14-8 4.2 5.5 5.0 4.7 1.48 1.91 2.23 2.09 Players with similar stat lines: Alex Cobb; Mat Latos; Zack Greinke 0 0 0 0 146 137 159 164 1.06 1.19 1.31 1.14 2.83 3.45 3.67 3.31 3.02 3.42 3.26 3.03 2011 2012 2013 2014 .234 .248 .279 .231 .272 .296 .332 .282 5.1% 11.6% 8.9% 7.9% 3.69 1.14 1.10 1.55 59 148 155 128 2011 2012 29.6 2013 23.4 2014 22.4 6 31 32 13.2 173.1 197.0 1-0 15-9 15-9 0 0 0 16 169 185 0.95 1.21 1.21 1.32 3.06 3.31 1.85 3.67 3.56 7.4 7.9 7.6 1.00 0.93 0.88 .184 .230 .223 .273 .280 .276 0.0% 10.1% 7.9% -5.34 3.07 1.46 671 70 133 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 91 Michael Wacha | STL | Age: 23 | Rk: 31 (146) Patrick Corbin | ARI | Age: 24 | Rk: 34 (163) Position: SP/RP Position: SP There’s a chance that Wacha’s September and October heroics are going to boost his draft value a little too much. We still really like the Cardinals youngster, and he’ll be very good very soon, but his likely IP limit holds him back a little for 2014. On a per-IP basis Wacha can contribute Felix Hernandez-type stats, but we have Wacha projected for 46 fewer IP than the Mariners ace. The “expert” consensus has Wacha 33rd among SP (per FantasyPros), which seems about right to me. After a fantastic 1st half (2.35 ERA), Corbin fell apart in the 2nd half (5.19 ERA). Given that it was the 24-year-old’s 1st 200-inning MLB season, the 2nd half struggles weren’t entirely surprising. In the end, it put Corbin right where he belongs -- 3.41 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. We project a very similar season in 2014, albeit much smoother. Because of the late-season struggles, people are overreacting and dropping Corbin a little too far in their rankings, so now is a good time to buy into the young left-hander. He’s no Jeff Locke. Corbin will be fine. Players with similar stat lines: Sonny Gray; Patrick Corbin; Mike Minor 2011 2012 2013 2014 15 31 2011 2012 2013 25.0 2014 23.1 Players with similar stat lines: Michael Wacha; Sonny Gray; Tony Cingrani 64.2 185.0 4-1 13-8 0 0 65 178 1.10 1.17 2.78 3.31 2.92 3.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 7.3 7.3 1.13 1.08 .216 .224 .275 .286 7.4% 5.8% -2.44 1.26 368 146 2011 2012 18.9 2013 20.7 2014 20.7 22 32 33 107.0 6-8 208.1 14-8 207.0 13-10 5.5 6.3 6.3 1.47 1.50 1.45 1 0 0 86 178 179 1.33 1.17 1.17 4.54 3.41 3.43 4.00 3.43 3.24 .275 .237 .226 .317 .283 .277 13.5% 10.1% 7.8% -2.20 3.06 1.03 355 72 163 Sonny Gray | OAK | Age: 24 | Rk: 32 (147) Tony Cingrani | CIN | Age: 24 | Rk: 35 (169) Position: SP/RP Position: SP/RP Like Michael Wacha, Gray’s postseason performances thrust him to the forefront of fantasy owners’ minds. In a recent chat on our site, a reader asked me why we were so bullish on Gray despite Oakland’s lack of recent pitching prospect success stories. It’s a fair question, but it’s the Ks that set Gray apart. Unlike, say, Brett Anderson, Gray can dial up the K rate, reaching as high as a K per inning. While he’s primarily a 2-pitch pitcher, like I said about Shelby Miller, my research has shown that’s not something we should hold against him. Players with similar stat lines: Michael Wacha; Patrick Corbin; Mike Minor 2011 2012 2013 2014 12 29 2011 2012 2013 25.7 2014 22.5 A lot of people have asked me if I think Cingrani can get by with 1 primary pitch -- yes, he can. His fastball is so dominant, and his slider is pretty good, too. For the next few years, that’s all Cingrani will need, though when the velocity inevitably declines he’ll definitely need a 3rd pitch. He has time until that’s the case, though. Obviously, Cingrani loses value for 2014 because he only threw 136 IP across AAA and the majors last year, but it looks like he’ll be the Reds’ 5th SP. Players with similar stat lines: Patrick Corbin; Michael Wacha; Sonny Gray 64.0 188.0 5-3 13-7 0 0 67 177 1.11 1.17 2.67 3.30 2.70 2.99 2011 2012 2013 2014 7.7 7.7 1.92 1.93 .212 .221 .276 .282 8.3% 7.5% -2.13 1.24 351 147 2011 2012 40.9 2013 28.6 2014 26.2 3 23 35 5.0 104.2 161.0 0-0 7-4 12-7 0 0 0 9 120 177 1.20 1.10 1.18 1.80 2.92 3.31 3.29 3.78 3.79 9.1 10.2 9.1 1.75 0.77 0.74 .200 .192 .207 .300 .241 .261 25.0% 12.6% 10.5% -6.45 -0.03 0.87 813 207 169 R.A. Dickey | TOR | Age: 39 | Rk: 33 (161) Kris Medlen | ATL | Age: 28 | Rk: 36 (174) Position: SP Position: SP Dickey is one of our favorite undervalued SP. The “experts” on FantasyPros have Dickey ranked 47th among SP, all in the 33-67 range, but what I really like about Dickey is his durability. That’s a common trait among knuckleballers, but unlike most knuckleballers Dickey is able to consistently post above average K rates. Don’t forget it was just 2 years ago that he won the NL Cy Young, and despite a poor start to his Blue Jays career (4.50 and 5.82 ERAs in April and May), Dickey finished the year strong (3.54 ERA after the break). We’re a little lower on Medlen than most, and it’s because he features an average strikeout rate across an average number of innings (average for a fantasy SP3 or SP4 at least). He finished 2013 incredibly strong, pitching to a 2.38 ERA with a 1.02 in the 2nd half, but I’m not entriely sold he can remain at that pace for a full season. If you’re looking for a moderate risk SP with high upside, then Medlen is someone to target. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Patrick Corbin, and R.A. Dickey are all more reliable options, but Medlen probably has the most upside. Players with similar stat lines: Alex Cobb; Julio Teheran; Patrick Corbin 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 34 34 33 2011 2012 2013 2014 15.3 24.8 18.8 20.5 208.2 8-13 233.2 20-6 224.2 14-13 221.0 14-11 6.2 5.8 7.5 6.5 1.54 1.35 1.00 1.11 Players with similar stat lines: Hyun-Jin Ryu; Matt Garza; Masahiro Tanaka 0 0 0 0 134 230 177 189 1.23 1.05 1.24 1.18 3.28 2.73 4.21 3.61 3.77 3.27 4.58 3.49 2011 2012 2013 2014 2 50 32 32 .248 .222 .240 .225 .278 .275 .265 .273 8.3% 11.3% 12.7% 7.6% 0.54 8.79 1.20 1.06 164 4 151 161 2011 2012 2013 2014 25.0 23.1 19.2 20.3 2.1 0-0 138.0 10-1 197.0 15-12 192.0 14-11 0.0 4.4 5.7 5.5 0.67 1.90 1.48 1.57 0 1 0 0 2 120 157 163 0.43 0.91 1.22 1.20 0.00 1.57 3.11 3.33 1.31 2.42 3.48 2.97 .125 .207 .254 .239 .167 .261 .298 .296 0.0% 5.7% 9.9% 6.4% -6.23 5.00 2.85 0.75 810 29 81 174 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 92 | Baseball Professor Hyun-Jin Ryu | LAD | Age: 27 | Rk: 37 (178) A.J. Griffin | OAK | Age: 26 | Rk: 40 (187) Position: SP Position: SP I spent about 3 months trying to dump Ryu after he came out strong in April. While Ryu delivered great ERAs in almost every month (he was under 3.00 in 4 of 6 months), his strikeout rate plummeted after the season’s 1st month. Statistically, Ryu’s season bounced around a lot, primarily with his peripherals, but his ERA was solid all season long. After game 162, Ryu was sitting with a 3.00 ERA, 3.24 FIP, and 3.46 xFIP, so while I wasn’t his biggest fan all year, he still got the job done. On the plus side, his BB% was great late in the year. FantasyPros lists Griffin’s consensus “expert” rank at 66. Clearly, we’re much higher than that. While Griffin is a fly ball pitcher, which I can’t stand, he does pitch in a spacious ballpark and he has above average control. Griffin surprised last year, finishing 30th among all SP, so he’s already proven he can be a borderline top-30 SP. A lowwalk, fly ball pitcher, Griffin is a sneaky contributor in WHIP (fly ball pitchers tend to have lower WHIPs because fly balls are converted into outs more than grounders) in the same way that Jake Peavy is. Players with similar stat lines: Kris Medlen; Hiroki Kuroda; Masahiro Tanaka 2011 2012 2013 2014 30 32 2011 2012 2013 19.7 2014 19.2 Players with similar stat lines: Jake Peavy; Marco Estrada; Matt Garza 192.0 197.0 14-8 14-9 0 0 154 159 1.20 1.20 3.00 3.31 3.24 3.10 2011 2012 2013 2014 6.3 5.9 1.66 1.67 .248 .240 .296 .293 8.7% 6.6% 2.81 0.67 84 178 2011 2012 19.1 2013 20.8 2014 21.3 15 32 32 82.1 7-1 200.0 14-10 188.0 13-11 5.7 6.6 6.4 0.96 0.65 0.62 0 0 0 64 171 166 1.13 1.13 1.15 3.06 3.83 3.78 3.85 4.55 4.13 .234 .224 .224 .264 .242 .258 10.2% 12.5% 10.1% -1.28 2.54 0.42 285 91 187 Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | Age: 25 | Rk: 38 (180) Matt Garza | MIL | Age: 30 | Rk: 41 (190) Position: SP Position: SP The Great Unknown, Tanaka is difficult to project given the few good comparisons we have. Most agree that he’s not quite the strikeout pitcher that Yu Darvish is, that his repertoire resembles Hiroki Kuroda’s, and that his final stats will probably mimic Hisashi Iwakuma’s, but that’s all speculation. It’s impossible to know how a person will handle such a difficult transition, but most believe Tanaka will handle things well. What we do know is that his control is impeccable, and, personally, that’s good enough for me. Garza is consistent. Only once in the last 5 years has he had an ERA outside the 3.82-3.95 range (3.32 in 2011), and his WHIP is generally in the mid-1.20s. Of course, injuries are always a concern, but Garza was able to stay healthy and pitch reasonably well last year after missing the 1st month with a strained lat. Garza a good player to target -- there are few high-upside options this late in drafts. You know you’ll get solid production when he’s on the field, which is better than knowing they’ll be there and not knowing if they’ll produce. Players with similar stat lines: Tony Cingrani; Kris Medlen; Hyun-Jin Ryu 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.4 Players with similar stat lines: Kris Medlen; Hyun-Jin Ryu; R.A. Dickey 185.0 12-8 0 165 1.18 3.24 3.47 2011 2012 2013 2014 31 18 24 31 7.3 1.67 .222 .271 9.8% 0.62 180 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.5 22.6 20.9 21.3 198.0 10-10 103.2 5-7 155.1 10-6 194.0 14-0 7.5 7.6 6.4 6.4 1.42 1.42 1.01 1.00 0 0 0 0 197 96 136 173 1.26 1.18 1.24 1.20 3.32 3.91 3.82 3.68 2.95 4.17 3.88 2.17 .241 .232 .248 .237 .306 .271 .290 .311 7.7% 16.3% 11.6% 0.1% 1.97 -1.66 -0.15 0.36 107 312 219 190 Ivan Nova | NYY | Age: 27 | Rk: 39 (185) Justin Masterson | CLE | Age: 29 | Rk: 42 (194) Position: SP/RP Position: SP/RP Nova wasn’t as good as his 16-4 season in 2011, but he’s better than most are giving him credit for this season. I keep seeing him ranked with the likes of Dan Straily, Scott Kazmir, and Bartolo Colon, but Nova should approach 200 IP of 8.00 K/9 ball. He can defeat Yankee Stadium because of his great ground ball rate, and his control is above average. Even though his WHIP is a little high, the grounders and good control keep his ERA down. In the 2nd half last year, Nova pitched to a 2.78 ERA with an 18.4 LD% and 2.03 GB/FB ratio. Masterson broke out last year, absolutely dominating right-handed batters en route to a top-25 season. His slider is devastating, and for all the flack he takes about not being able to get left-handers out, he actually performed admirably against them in 2013. We think he keeps most of the Ks, but his WHIP was a little too good to be true. When that goes back up (we think to 1.28), so will Masterson’s rank. He’s a fantastic option in leagues that count IP, QS, or particularly K/9, and he has more upside than most in this range. Players with similar stat lines: Justin Masterson; Matt Garza; Chris Tillman Players with similar stat lines: Ivan Nova; Matt Garza; R.A. Dickey 2011 2012 2013 2014 28 28 23 31 165.1 170.1 139.1 198.0 16-4 12-8 9-6 15-9 0 0 0 0 98 153 116 174 1.33 1.47 1.28 1.25 3.70 5.02 3.10 3.42 4.01 4.60 3.47 3.97 2011 2012 2013 2014 34 34 32 33 216.0 206.1 193.0 208.0 12-10 11-15 14-10 14-10 0 0 0 0 158 159 195 188 1.28 1.45 1.20 1.25 3.21 4.93 3.45 3.45 3.28 4.16 3.35 3.44 2011 2012 2013 2014 13.9 20.5 19.8 20.7 8.1 7.5 7.5 7.5 1.83 1.40 2.05 1.80 .254 .284 .256 .233 .283 .331 .313 .276 8.4% 16.6% 8.4% 13.8% 0.32 -2.07 -0.32 0.46 181 346 225 185 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.4 17.6 24.3 21.2 7.2 9.7 9.5 9.8 2.06 2.23 2.40 2.41 .254 .263 .220 .214 .302 .309 .285 .269 6.3% 11.4% 10.7% 8.6% 1.75 -2.42 3.04 0.26 117 374 74 194 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 93 Jered Weaver | LAA | Age: 31 | Rk: 43 (195) A.J. Burnett | PHI | Age: 37 | Rk: 46 (208) Position: SP Position: SP After posting top-10 seasons in 2011 and 2012, Weaver missed about a month of 2013 and has officially begun the long fall from the top of the SP position. His walk rates are still elite (he’ll still contribute in WHIP), but we’re all waiting for Weaver’s ERA to fall hard. Despite ERAs of 2.81 and 3.27 in 2012 and 2013, Weaver’s FIP wasn’t better than 3.75 in either season, and his xFIP wasn’t better than 4.18. The high fly ball rates and decreasing strikeout rates are going to catch up with him, and I don’t want to own him when they do. Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Beachy; Hiroki Kuroda; Kyle Lohse I don’t like Burnett in Philadelphia as much as I did when he was in Pittsburgh, but it’s hard to deny the pitcher he’s become over the last 2 years, finishing no lower than 32nd among SP. He consistently throws 200+ innings of nearly K/IP ball, meaning Burnett will be among the league leaders in Ks, and his ERA and WHIP are average or better because of his great walk and ground ball rates. Will he win enough games to beat our ranking? We only projected 12 wins, so Burnett will shoot up the rankings if he can win more. Players with similar stat lines: Jeff Samardzija; Justin Masterson; Kevin Gausman 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 30 24 31 235.2 188.2 154.1 198.0 18-8 20-5 11-8 13-8 0 0 0 0 198 142 117 146 1.01 1.02 1.14 1.16 2.41 2.81 3.27 3.43 3.20 3.75 3.82 3.73 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 31 30 31 190.1 202.1 191.0 208.0 11-11 16-10 10-11 12-11 0 0 0 0 173 180 209 213 1.43 1.24 1.21 1.27 5.15 3.51 3.30 3.42 4.77 3.52 2.80 3.43 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.4 19.2 18.5 17.7 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.8 0.67 0.84 0.66 0.68 .210 .213 .236 .229 .250 .241 .268 .264 6.3% 8.6% 7.8% 6.5% 7.97 6.15 0.94 0.22 12 18 163 195 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.7 21.2 26.1 24.0 9.9 7.3 8.4 8.1 1.52 2.35 2.33 2.25 .255 .242 .228 .228 .294 .294 .305 .292 17.0% 12.7% 9.1% 12.8% -1.93 3.22 2.44 0.07 321 72 95 208 Marco Estrada | MIL | Age: 30 | Rk: 44 (196) Hiroki Kuroda | NYY | Age: 39 | Rk: 47 (210) Position: SP Position: SP Another player we have ranked higher than most, Estrada was a popular breakout candidate last season before faltering from the start. His 5.32 ERA before the break was ugly, but his 2.15 ERA after the break was pretty spectacular. Estrada has plus strikeout potential and above average control, but being a fly ball pitcher in a hitter’s park, he’s been plagued by HR over the last few years. Estrada makes for a very low-risk pitcher given his ADP, but there’s some serious upside here if you can weather the ups and downs of a homer-prone SP. Kuroda is a lot like Weaver in the sense that both have great control with failing strikeout rates, but they’re still very fantasy relevant. Weaver has more upside, but Kuroda is much safer. Kuroda was a top-25 SP in 2011 and 2012 before falling to 41st last year as a casuality of New York’s abysmal offense. If the Yankees can find their stroke again, Kuroda is a candidate to break back into the top 30, but there’s not a ton of upside here because of his advanced age and low strikeout potential. But still, Kuroda is reliable. Players with similar stat lines: A.J. Griffin; Jake Peavy; Andrew Cashner Players with similar stat lines: Jered Weaver; Drew Smyly; Hyun-Jin Ryu 2011 2012 2013 2014 43 29 21 29 92.2 138.1 128.0 183.0 4-8 5-7 7-4 11-9 0 0 0 0 88 143 118 172 1.21 1.14 1.08 1.14 4.08 3.64 3.87 3.66 3.67 3.35 3.86 4.28 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 33 32 32 202.0 219.2 201.1 202.0 13-16 16-11 11-13 13-10 0 0 0 0 161 167 150 150 1.21 1.17 1.16 1.19 3.07 3.32 3.31 3.36 3.78 3.86 3.56 3.71 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.1 25.4 23.1 22.7 7.6 5.2 5.7 5.9 0.93 0.76 0.85 0.83 .237 .242 .227 .225 .287 .298 .262 .258 10.3% 10.5% 11.9% 13.2% -2.58 0.05 -0.58 0.22 378 205 244 196 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.2 18.7 18.2 17.7 5.9 5.7 5.2 5.4 1.24 1.77 1.49 1.54 .250 .246 .246 .238 .287 .281 .282 .275 11.3% 13.0% 10.3% 10.1% 2.73 4.05 1.87 0.02 77 46 124 210 Jake Peavy | BOS | Age: 33 | Rk: 45 (201) Andrew Cashner | SD | Age: 27 | Rk: 48 (211) Position: SP Position: SP/RP I believe Peavy to be a very underrated fantasy SP. He’s no longer his Cy Young self and his ERA will probably be around 4.00, but like A.J. Griffin, Peavy combines a high fly ball rate and a semi-spacious ballpark with very good control. That means he’ll be sneakily valuable because of his WHIP. Peavy struggles against left-handed batters, but thankfully lefties hit the ball to the deepest part of Fenway, playing right into Peavy’s strengths. Health is never guaranteed for the fiery right-hander, but Peavy will have value when he’s pitching. Players with similar stat lines: A.J. Griffin; Dan Haren; Marco Estrada 2011 2012 2013 2014 19 32 23 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.2 22.0 20.5 20.7 111.2 7-7 219.0 11-12 144.2 12-5 199.0 13-10 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.0 1.00 0.82 0.70 0.73 Cashner was money down the stretch, posting a 2.14 ERA and 0.95 WHIP while holding opponents to a .193 BA in the 2nd half. Oddly, though, his 22.4 LD% in the 2nd half was above league average, yet his .234 BABIP was ridiculously low. Summary: Cashner did a lot of good, but luck had a large say in the matter, too. While there’s hope his K% can increase, that’s purely hope. PETCO is his friend and the Padres are reportedly letting him pitch away in 2014, but I don’t think there will be enough counting stats to propel Cashner much higher. Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Beachy; Marco Estrada; Drew Smyly 0 0 0 0 95 194 121 171 1.26 1.10 1.15 1.15 4.92 3.37 4.17 3.98 3.21 3.73 3.96 3.49 2011 2012 2013 2014 7 33 31 31 .264 .232 .236 .226 .317 .272 .268 .271 7.6% 9.7% 10.1% 7.0% -2.53 4.09 0.17 0.13 371 45 201 201 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.5 26.5 18.1 19.5 10.2 0-0 46.1 3-4 175.0 10-9 191.0 10-11 10.3 9.7 6.7 6.2 1.78 2.21 1.83 1.88 0 0 0 0 8 52 128 154 0.66 1.32 1.13 1.13 1.69 4.27 3.09 3.38 3.87 3.55 3.35 3.35 .086 .239 .230 .223 .077 .311 .269 .267 11.1% 17.2% 8.1% 9.1% -5.83 -3.76 1.43 0.00 738 497 145 211 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 94 | Baseball Professor Kyle Lohse | MIL | Age: 35 | Rk: 49 (213) Chris Tillman | BAL | Age: 26 | Rk: 52 (219) Position: SP Position: SP When we projected everyone and calculated our rankings, Lohse’s rank surprised me. Then again, his projected line -- 202 IP, 14 W, 3.53 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 135 K -- is extremely realistic and comparable to what he does every year. Owning Lohse is guaranteed to be boring, but he gives you a solid Ws with an above average WHIP and doesn’t hurt you anywhere (except K/9 if you count that). No one on FantasyPros has Lohse higher than 64 yet his average end-of-season rank over the last 3 years is 33, highlighting how undervalued he is. I’m beginning to really like Tillman. While his ERA probably won’t escape the 3.60-3.80 range, he’s a 200-inning workhorse with very good K rates and solid win potential with that Orioles offense backing him. After the break last year, Tillman posted a 23.9 K% and 8.56 K/9, and he improved his BB/9 from 3.30 to 2.57. His LD% fell, his GB% improved -- almost every single peripheral (and even most superficial, non-peripherals like ERA) got better in the 2nd half. Believe in Tillman. Players with similar stat lines: Jered Weaver; Brandon Beachy; Tim Hudson 2011 2012 2013 2014 30 33 32 33 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.3 16.6 15.5 16.1 188.1 14-8 211.0 16-3 198.2 11-10 202.0 14-10 5.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 1.13 1.14 1.05 1.03 Players with similar stat lines: CC Sabathia; Jon Lester; Dillon Gee 0 0 0 0 111 143 125 135 1.17 1.09 1.17 1.17 3.39 2.86 3.35 3.53 3.67 3.51 4.08 3.43 2011 2012 2013 2014 13 15 33 33 62.0 86.0 206.1 202.0 3-5 9-3 16-7 15-9 0 0 0 0 46 66 179 180 1.65 1.05 1.22 1.27 5.52 2.93 3.71 3.72 3.99 4.25 4.42 4.22 .244 .234 .256 .243 .269 .262 .276 .280 7.2% 8.2% 10.8% 6.1% 1.66 4.97 1.17 -0.02 120 30 154 213 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.0 19.0 21.2 20.8 8.7 6.9 8.1 7.4 0.84 0.78 0.97 0.91 .298 .205 .238 .236 .348 .221 .269 .276 5.4% 10.7% 14.2% 11.2% -5.32 -0.33 2.71 -0.16 673 224 87 219 Brandon Beachy | ATL | Age: 27 | Rk: 50 (214) Dan Haren | LAD | Age: 33 | Rk: 53 (221) Position: SP Position: SP Tommy John surgery delayed Beachy’s 2013 debut and elbow inflammation ended it early. A promising SP back in 2011/2012, Beachy is now a bundle of potential wrapped in question marks. Solely because of the recent injuries, Beachy isn’t a very good play for 2014 -- his IP will almost certainly be limited -- but as our projection shows, we think he’ll be valuable in the innings he actually does pitch. Long term, there’s no reason Beachy can’t get back to where he was before all the elbow issues. For a 5-year stretch from 2007-2011, Haren was one of the best SP in fantasy, regularly topping 220 IP with elite ERAs and WHIPs while holding his own with Ks. Then he fell apart in 2012 and became, well, a pretty bad pitcher. His ERAs in 2012 and 2013 were 4.33 and 4.67, and this is the highest I’ve seen him ranked anywhere. I understand the skepticism -- we have enough concerns to rank Haren 53rd -- but he did posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in the 2nd half of 2013, and his K/9 topped 8.00 after two years in the 7.00s. Haren isn’t finished. Players with similar stat lines: Drew Smyly; Jered Weaver; Kyle Lohse Players with similar stat lines: Ervin Santana; Matt Garza; Jake Peavy 2011 2012 2013 2014 25 13 5 28 141.2 81.0 30.0 175.0 7-3 5-5 2-1 12-1 0 0 0 0 169 68 23 146 1.21 0.96 1.03 1.17 3.68 2.00 4.50 3.41 3.19 3.49 4.08 2.45 2011 2012 2013 2014 35 30 31 31 238.1 176.2 169.2 200.0 16-10 12-13 10-14 13-10 0 0 1 0 192 142 151 175 1.02 1.29 1.24 1.20 3.17 4.33 4.67 3.87 2.98 4.24 4.09 3.75 2011 2012 2013 2014 28.6 21.3 19.2 20.1 7.8 9.1 3.3 5.9 0.75 1.01 1.00 0.91 .231 .170 .233 .235 .307 .200 .250 .299 9.8% 6.7% 13.5% 1.3% 0.28 -0.37 -4.65 -0.03 183 227 600 214 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.2 19.0 21.1 20.8 3.5 5.1 4.3 5.1 1.12 1.00 0.86 0.90 .231 .269 .264 .242 .272 .302 .302 .286 7.5% 12.8% 13.0% 9.8% 5.97 -0.12 2.47 -0.17 24 213 94 221 Drew Smyly | DET | Age: 25 | Rk: 51 (215) Jon Lester | BOS | Age: 30 | Rk: 54 (227) Position: SP/RP Position: SP The Tigers plan to put Smyly in their rotation this spring, which means he escapes middle relief purgatory in most fantasy leagues. As a reliever, Smyly was able to post dominant strikeout rates (9.59 K/9, 26.7 K%), but it’s very unlikely that he maintains anything close to that with the increased workload of going deeper into games. I’m not certain Smyly will be able to pitch a ton of innings in 2014, which is why we have him projected for just 175 IP and ranked 51st overall, but on a per-IP basis he’ll probably be very good. Lester is a much better real-life pitcher than he is a fantasy pitcher, yet somehow I see him consistently ranked in the 20s, 30s, and 40s among SP. We’re Red Sox fans and we don’t buy it. His strikeout rate is merely average, his WHIP has never been lower than 1.20 (and it’s not been under 1.26 in the last 3 years), and even though he pitches 200+ innings most years, that’s not enough innings to turn his average K rate into something significant. We projected 16 W, a 3.68 ERA, and a 1.29 WHIP, and that makes him a borderline top 50 SP. Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Beachy; Ervin Santana; Hiroki Kuroda 2011 2012 2013 2014 23 63 34 2011 2012 22.6 2013 26.7 2014 21.4 Players with similar stat lines: CC Sabathia; Chris Tillman; Matt Moore 99.1 76.0 175.0 4-3 6-0 12-0 0 2 0 94 81 157 1.27 1.04 1.20 3.99 2.37 3.40 3.83 2.31 2.54 2011 2012 2013 2014 31 33 33 33 191.2 205.1 213.1 210.0 15-9 9-14 15-8 16-9 0 0 0 0 182 166 177 178 1.26 1.38 1.29 1.29 3.47 4.82 3.75 3.68 3.83 4.11 3.59 3.69 7.9 5.6 6.9 0.97 1.12 1.12 .244 .218 .231 .295 .290 .300 10.3% 5.3% 2.0% -2.42 -0.52 -0.04 373 234 215 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.8 19.0 19.6 19.8 9.4 7.8 7.4 7.4 1.50 1.71 1.27 1.39 .233 .269 .252 .239 .286 .312 .300 .288 11.4% 13.9% 8.3% 8.8% 2.62 -1.92 1.78 -0.21 80 337 128 227 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 95 Kevin Gausman | BAL | Age: 23 | Rk: 55 (228) Jeff Samardzija | CHC | Age: 29 | Rk: 58 (237) Position: SP Position: SP Gausman’s consensus “expert” rank on FantasyPros is 89 and no one else has him higher than 54. His ERA last year definitely wasn’t encouraging -- 5.66 in 47.2 IP with Baltimore -- but he had an impeccable 24.4 K% and 6.5 BB%, and his FIP (3.99) and xFIP (3.04) indicate his poor performance was small sample size bad luck more than anything else. Gausman is our number 1 sleeper SP for 2014. He will almost certainly post good K and walk rates, and the Orioles have a big need for front-line caliber SP. That’s exactly what Gausman is. We fully acknowledge Samardzija’s breakout potential. He’s a very good bet for 200+ K, and his xFIPs have been around 3.40 in each of the last 2 years, but the reality of the situation is that Samardzija is a talented strikeout pitcher on a bad team who has a slight tendency to walk batters. While his peripherals (GB%, K%) are definitely going in the right direction, we can’t ignore his weaknesses. He’ll post an average WHIP and average ERA with a below average win total (probably), and the Ks just don’t do enough on their own. Players with similar stat lines: Ervin Santana; Corey Kluber; Dan Haren 2011 2012 2013 2014 20 29 2011 2012 2013 24.4 2014 24.0 47.2 3-5 178.0 12-11 6.5 7.0 1.28 1.22 Players with similar stat lines: A.J. Burnett; Kevin Gausman; Alex Wood 0 0 49 182 1.34 1.26 5.66 3.45 3.99 4.25 2011 2012 2013 2014 75 28 33 33 .271 .243 .328 .289 18.6% 17.6% -4.72 -0.21 613 228 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.9 24.9 23.4 24.0 88.0 8-4 174.2 9-13 213.2 8-13 206.0 11-10 13.2 7.8 8.5 8.0 1.00 1.35 1.53 1.46 0 0 0 0 87 180 214 211 1.30 1.22 1.35 1.26 2.97 3.81 4.34 3.64 3.66 3.55 3.77 3.30 .197 .237 .254 .228 .253 .296 .314 .294 5.3% 12.8% 13.3% 9.1% -0.04 1.22 -0.64 -0.36 205 143 246 237 CC Sabathia | NYY | Age: 33 | Rk: 56 (230) Derek Holland | TEX | Age: 27 | Rk: 59 (244) Position: SP Position: SP Despite the decline, Sabathia will still pitch 200+ innings and win a good amount of games, but his velocity fell drastically for the 2nd straight season and he got worse as the year wore on. The only reason he ranks above a guy like Jeff Samardzija is because Sabathia has name value and has earned a little faith from us. The Yankees as a whole had an awful 2013 season, so maybe with a new year and a whole offseason to work on a new approach, Sabathia can put things back together. With a 3.42 ERA across 213 IP last year, I expected more “experts” to be higher on Holland than they apparently are -- his consensus rank at FantasyPros is just 77! Holland’s strikeout rate should take another small step forward in 2014, but his 2nd-half 3.92 ERA definitely gives us pause. There’s enough talent here for Holland to be average again in ERA and WHIP, and he’ll almost certainly pitch a bunch of innings. Combined with Texas’ offense, that could mean a 16+ win season and 180+ K. Players with similar stat lines: Chris Tillman; Jon Lester; Matt Moore 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 28 32 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.4 23.7 19.3 20.6 237.1 19-8 200.0 15-6 211.0 14-13 212.0 15-10 6.2 5.3 7.2 7.0 1.54 1.57 1.35 1.39 Players with similar stat lines: Chris Tillman; Matt Moore; Jon Lester 0 0 0 0 230 197 175 187 1.23 1.14 1.37 1.28 3.00 3.38 4.78 3.72 2.88 3.33 4.10 3.52 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 29 33 33 198.0 175.1 213.0 206.0 16-5 12-7 10-9 14-8 0 0 0 0 162 145 189 184 1.35 1.22 1.29 1.28 3.95 4.67 3.42 3.67 3.94 4.75 3.44 3.92 .251 .236 .267 .242 .318 .288 .308 .295 8.4% 12.5% 13.0% 9.1% 5.85 4.44 -0.74 -0.23 26 39 249 230 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.2 19.9 21.1 20.8 8.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 1.38 1.08 1.12 1.13 .261 .240 .254 .241 .305 .261 .307 .287 11.0% 15.2% 8.8% 10.8% 1.12 0.08 1.28 -0.46 136 203 148 244 Ervin Santana | FA | Age: 31 | Rk: 57 (232) Tim Hudson | SF | Age: 38 | Rk: 60 (249) Position: SP Position: SP Though Santana doesn’t have a home yet, that’s not for lack of skill. Santana has had some rough spots in his career -- that’s to be expected from a fly ball pitcher -- but he’s a consistent bet for 200 IP. We don’t expect Santana to post a 1.14 WHIP again -- we have him at 1.18 -- but that’s entirely contingent upon his ability to replicate the great walk rate. He was consistent all year in that department, so we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. He’s not as high as Kyle Lohse, but Hudson is useful in a very similar way. Should he stay healthy enough to pitch the 181 innings we project, Hudson will deliver a solid ERA and WHIP over a sizeable innings total. Most of the guys ranked this low hurt you in one of those 2 rate categories, so back-end ratestat stability is what Hudson brings to the table. He’s a ground ball pitcher, but calling spacious San Francisco home will help him bounce back after back-to-back disappointing seasons. Players with similar stat lines: Drew Smyly; Dan Haren; Kevin Gausman 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 30 32 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.8 17.4 18.7 18.4 228.2 11-12 178.0 9-13 211.0 9-10 213.0 12-10 7.6 8.0 5.9 6.8 1.15 1.16 1.41 1.28 Players with similar stat lines: Kyle Lohse; John Lackey; Ervin Santana 0 0 0 0 178 133 161 164 1.22 1.27 1.14 1.18 3.38 5.16 3.24 3.67 4.00 5.63 3.93 3.86 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 28 21 29 .238 .238 .237 .226 .272 .241 .267 .262 10.1% 18.9% 12.4% 9.6% 2.22 -1.88 1.95 -0.24 95 333 118 232 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.9 13.6 17.8 17.4 215.0 16-10 179.0 16-7 131.1 8-7 181.0 14-10 6.3 6.4 6.7 6.8 2.29 2.20 2.10 2.15 0 0 0 0 158 102 95 133 1.14 1.21 1.19 1.22 3.22 3.62 3.97 3.56 3.39 3.78 3.46 3.28 .232 .243 .242 .230 .273 .270 .281 .276 8.7% 8.3% 9.5% 6.0% 3.84 1.53 -1.46 -0.55 55 133 292 249 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 96 | Baseball Professor Matt Moore | TB | Age: 25 | Rk: 61 (253) Corey Kluber | CLE | Age: 28 | Rk: 64 (265) Position: SP Position: SP/RP No, we didn’t forget to rank Moore. I understand the excitement of owning the Rays’ young SP (the guy who’s supposed to take over as ace when David Price leaves) but we have collectively decided we don’t like Moore. Not right now. He’s clearly a better upside play than almost anyone else ranked in this range, but we think he’ll finish with a 3.67 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, and this is where someone with those numbers belongs. His FIPs have been over 3.90 in the last 2 years, and he can’t get the walks under control. I was all over Kluber last season as my fantasy team was making a playoff push. What will be most telling about Kluber’s 2014 season is how much control he displays early on. We projected him for a 1.25 WHIP, which is a hair better than last year’s, but maintaining a walk rate as low as 2013’s 5.4% is going to be difficult. We expect a lower OBA to drive his WHIP. Watch out for the HR allowed as Kluber received some bad luck there. He could really break out with a 14 W, 3.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP season a distinct possibility. Players with similar stat lines: CC Sabathia; Jon Lester; C.J. Wilson 2011 2012 2013 2014 3 31 27 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 37.5 23.1 22.3 21.9 9.1 1-0 177.1 11-11 150.1 17-4 201.0 15-7 7.5 10.7 11.8 10.1 1.13 0.87 0.93 0.87 Players with similar stat lines: John Lackey; Dillon Gee; Alex Wood 0 0 0 0 15 175 143 191 1.29 1.35 1.30 1.33 2.89 3.81 3.29 3.67 2.17 3.93 3.95 3.94 2011 2012 2013 2014 3 12 26 30 4.1 63.0 147.1 180.0 0-0 2-5 11-5 12-9 0 0 0 0 5 54 136 168 2.08 1.49 1.26 1.25 8.31 5.14 3.85 3.72 4.18 4.29 3.30 3.51 .243 .235 .212 .225 .381 .293 .259 .277 12.5% 8.6% 8.0% 8.0% -5.55 0.54 2.04 -0.58 696 179 114 253 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.0 19.2 22.4 22.0 12.0 6.4 5.4 5.6 1.25 1.36 1.60 1.55 .300 .293 .268 .247 .400 .342 .329 .302 0.0% 13.4% 12.4% 12.4% -6.31 -4.87 -0.05 -0.98 834 613 210 265 John Lackey | BOS | Age: 35 | Rk: 62 (259) Taijuan Walker | SEA | Age: 21 | Rk: 65 (268) Position: SP Position: SP In 2011, Lackey posted one of the worst seasons in baseball history (6.41 ERA), missed all of 2012, and then became a leader of Boston’s scrappy pitching staff en route to a 47th ranked season among SP. Sorry, but we’re not totally buying it. Yes, Lackey is back, but he’s an average strikeout pitcher whose 3.86 FIP and 4.35 2nd-half ERA are more indicative of his true skill level. He should post an average WHIP due to some very nice walk rates, but you probably only want Lackey as a spot starter unless you’re in a very deep league. Players with similar stat lines: Dillon Gee; Corey Kluber; Tim Hudson 2011 2012 2013 2014 28 29 30 2011 14.5 2012 2013 20.7 2014 18.3 160.0 12-12 189.1 10-13 194.0 14-11 7.5 5.1 5.8 1.08 1.34 1.27 Walker is as much unknown as he is exciting, but there will be plenty of people targeting him aggressively because of what SP like Julio Teheran have done. Playing for an improved Mariners team in a great pitcher’s park, Walker has everything breaking right for him. He has definite high-strikeout potential, posting K rates over 26% in the minors last year, but we think his strikeout rate will develop a little more slowly. From our projected ERA and WHIP, though, you can see we like Walker. He makes for a great late-round target. Players with similar stat lines: Alexi Ogando; Wandy Rodriguez; Clay Buchholz 0 0 0 108 161 151 1.62 1.16 1.24 6.41 3.52 3.76 4.71 3.86 3.79 2011 2012 2013 2014 .304 .245 .243 .339 .281 .283 9.7% 13.3% 9.5% -4.91 1.45 -0.79 630 143 259 2011 2012 2013 20.0 2014 18.0 3 27 15.0 171.0 1-0 11-0 0 0 12 129 1.00 1.19 3.60 3.45 2.25 2.52 6.7 7.0 0.94 0.82 .196 .231 .250 .291 0.0% 0.0% -6.13 -1.05 822 268 Dillon Gee | NYM | Age: 28 | Rk: 63 (263) C.J. Wilson | LAA | Age: 33 | Rk: 66 (269) Position: SP Position: SP A popular sleeper before last season, Gee got off to a terrible start. While his end-of-year numbers are uninspiring, he did tally 199 IP by season’s end and his 2.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in the 2nd half are extremely encouraging (as is his gain in velocity as the year wore on). We only projected a 3.76 ERA and 1.26 WHIP from Gee, which would be right in line with what he did last year, but I would target him more aggressively than that projected line suggests. There’s a lot of upside here. I’ve never been a fan of Wilson, but it’s worth mentioning that he did finish 11th among SP in 2011 and 29th last year, but it’s his 50th-ranked 2012 season that seems much more likely to us, and the influx of young talent pushes him lower. Frankly, with Wilson’s poor control, he won’t post a good WHIP, and he had a touch too much HR luck last year (7.2% HR/FB) for us to feel confident projecting a repeat. He’s good for 200+ IP and 170+ Ks, but his ERA and WHIP will be average or worse. Players with similar stat lines: John Lackey; Corey Kluber; Chris Tillman 2011 2012 2013 2014 30 17 32 33 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.2 21.0 16.9 18.9 160.2 13-6 109.2 6-7 199.0 12-11 204.0 14-7 10.1 6.3 5.6 5.7 1.43 1.70 1.13 1.21 Players with similar stat lines: Matt Moore; CC Sabathia; Jon Lester 0 0 0 0 114 97 142 165 1.38 1.25 1.28 1.26 4.43 4.10 3.62 3.76 4.65 3.71 4.00 3.54 2011 2012 2013 2014 34 34 33 33 .242 .252 .264 .246 .270 .301 .296 .293 11.1% 12.8% 10.1% 7.8% -1.20 -1.88 0.53 -0.93 266 334 179 263 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.5 20.0 20.6 20.2 223.1 16-7 202.1 13-10 212.1 17-7 205.0 15-9 8.1 10.5 9.3 9.5 1.55 1.68 1.33 1.42 0 0 0 0 206 173 188 180 1.19 1.34 1.34 1.36 2.94 3.83 3.39 3.48 3.24 4.04 3.51 3.67 .230 .236 .244 .234 .287 .281 .300 .289 8.2% 10.8% 7.2% 7.5% 4.96 0.98 2.70 -1.09 34 156 88 269 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 97 Jarrod Parker | OAK | Age: 25 | Rk: 67 (272) Wandy Rodriguez | PIT | Age: 35 | Rk: 70 (282) Position: SP Position: SP Parker is tumbling down our rankings. I was bullish on him prior to last year, but early struggles turned me off, and when he turned things around (for 1 month at least -- August), his value was limited because he refused to strike people out (16.4 K% last year). Parker probably isn’t going to emerge as an average strikeout pitcher, so he needs to follow in the footsteps of someone like Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda’s walk rate is much more elite and he’s proven he can consistently turn batted balls into outs. Parker hasn’t yet. Rodriguez missed most of 2013 with forearm stiffness, but even when he’s on the hill he’s lost his strikeout prowess. Formerly fanning batters at over 8.00 K/9, Rodriguez has now settled into the 6.00s with some pretty good walk rates. In terms of ERA and WHIP, he’s still the same guy that he’s always been, but without above average K totals it’ll be difficult for Rodriguez to have value. He ranked 40th and 56th in 2011 and 2012, but we projecting he falls short of those ranks in 2014 because of the relative strength of the position. Players with similar stat lines: Dillon Gee; Rick Porcello; John Lackey 2011 2012 2013 2014 1 29 32 32 2011 4.6 2012 18.6 2013 16.4 2014 16.7 Players with similar stat lines: Alexi Ogando; Taijuan Walker; Alex Wood 5.2 181.1 197.0 199.0 0-0 13-8 12-8 14-7 0 0 0 0 1 140 134 143 0.88 1.26 1.22 1.29 0.00 3.47 3.97 3.41 3.20 3.43 4.40 3.97 2011 2012 2013 2014 30 34 12 32 4.6 8.4 7.7 7.9 0.60 1.47 1.04 1.09 .190 .242 .238 .236 .200 .290 .260 .272 0.0% 6.8% 10.5% 7.3% -6.14 1.45 0.30 -1.13 779 134 189 272 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.5 15.9 17.7 17.7 191.0 11-11 205.2 12-13 62.2 6-4 195.0 11-10 8.5 6.4 4.6 5.9 1.30 1.52 1.09 1.27 0 0 0 0 166 139 46 145 1.31 1.27 1.12 1.21 3.49 3.76 3.59 3.70 4.15 3.93 4.42 3.55 .248 .251 .238 .237 .289 .280 .255 .278 13.0% 10.1% 13.2% 7.2% 0.93 0.78 -2.81 -1.42 142 170 402 282 Alex Wood | ATL | Age: 23 | Rk: 68 (273) Alexi Ogando | TEX | Age: 30 | Rk: 71 (283) Position: SP/RP Position: SP/RP I absolutely love Wood, but I don’t like his IP potential for 2014. On a per-IP basis, I think he could be a lot like Cole Hamels, who I also love, but I’m not sure he’ll even get to the 165 IP we projected. The Braves reportedly haven’t decided if Wood will be a SP or RP this year, but I really can’t imagine them leaving him out of the rotation after he dominated in that role before a pair of blow-ups in early September. Wood combines a good ground ball rate with good K rates, and he displayed very good control in the minors. Players with similar stat lines: Jose Quintana; Tyson Ross; Corey Kluber 2011 2012 2013 2014 31 28 2011 2012 2013 23.6 2014 23.1 Ogando is tough to peg because he’s never really had a definite role with the Rangers, but his talent is intriguing. For the most part, he displays good control with average strikeout stuff, and he’ll almost certainly be average (or a little better) in WHIP. Unfortunately, he won’t pitch a ton of innings (we say 165). I’m not in love with his slight fly ball tendencies in Arlington, but his career trends indicate our projected line is completely reasonable. Players with similar stat lines: Taijuan Walker; Wandy Rodriguez; Clay Buchholz 77.2 165.0 3-3 11-8 0 0 77 164 1.33 1.30 3.13 3.32 2.65 2.58 2011 2012 2013 2014 31 58 23 30 169.0 66.0 104.1 165.0 13-8 2-0 7-4 10-8 0 3 0 0 126 66 72 129 1.14 1.00 1.23 1.19 3.51 3.27 3.11 3.57 3.65 3.73 4.36 3.62 8.3 7.7 1.80 1.78 .254 .241 .333 .320 5.1% 3.6% -3.17 -1.22 438 273 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.2 25.1 16.8 18.6 6.2 6.5 9.6 6.4 0.91 0.90 0.98 0.93 .232 .201 .228 .229 .265 .237 .254 .270 7.8% 12.3% 8.7% 6.8% 1.62 -2.77 -1.75 -1.43 122 402 315 283 Jose Quintana | CHW | Age: 25 | Rk: 69 (279) Francisco Liriano | PIT | Age: 30 | Rk: 72 (288) Position: SP Position: SP Quintana is a low-ceiling fantasy fill-in, but let’s not rob him of all his glory -- he did manage a 1.22 ERA over 200 IP last season. Unfortunately, there’s very little strikeout upside, he’ll struggle to rack up wins playing for the White Sox, and his home park will only serve to keep him down. You probably have little interest in drafting Quintana (I’d rather fill out my rotation with upside rookies), but you’ll definitely add him at some point in 2014. I know, I know, you don’t agree with this rank. Well, when I look at Liriano, I see a guy who never pitches a ton of innings, whose walk rates are below average at best, and who you just can’t count on. Sure, you can bank on his strikeout rate -- about a K/IP -- but do you really think Liriano is a 16-game winner? A 13-game winner? His 3.95 2nd-half ERA is more than worrisome, and though I agree that he’s a better high-upside pick than, say, Alexi Ogando, I disagree that our projection paints him in an unfair light. Players with similar stat lines: Alex Wood; Tyson Ross; Corey Kluber 2011 2012 2013 2014 25 33 33 2011 2012 14.3 2013 19.7 2014 19.9 136.1 6-6 200.0 9-7 198.0 10-12 7.4 6.7 6.5 1.52 1.14 1.08 Players with similar stat lines: Rick Porcello; Erik Johnson; Dan Straily 0 0 0 81 164 167 1.35 1.22 1.25 3.76 3.51 3.48 4.23 3.82 3.25 2011 2012 2013 2014 26 34 26 28 .272 .244 .243 .299 .283 .298 10.5% 10.2% 6.3% -2.47 0.87 -1.35 377 165 279 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.0 24.1 24.5 23.3 134.1 9-10 156.2 6-12 161.0 16-8 172.0 12-10 12.7 12.6 9.5 9.4 1.35 1.26 1.99 1.66 0 0 0 0 112 167 163 174 1.49 1.47 1.22 1.33 5.09 5.34 3.02 3.65 4.54 4.34 2.92 3.65 .246 .239 .222 .226 .290 .300 .290 .288 9.9% 12.9% 8.3% 11.0% -3.15 -3.28 3.09 -1.53 435 444 69 288 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 98 | Baseball Professor Clay Buchholz | BOS | Age: 29 | Rk: 73 (289) Tyson Ross | SD | Age: 27 | Rk: 76 (302) Position: SP Position: SP/RP In any given start or for any given short stretch of time, Buchholz can be among the game’s best SP, but banking on a full season of production is foolhardy. Last year Buchholz was sidelined for 2 months and admitted that if it was September, he could have toughed it out and pitched. So just because it’s July and August the games don’t mean as much, even as your team is in a playoff battle? Maturity and toughness aren’t part of Buchholz’s makeup, and you won’t find someone as unreliable as him on my fantasy team. I’ve heard a lot of people clammoring about Ross this spring. After beginning the year as a RP for the Padres, he made his way to the rotation and actually increase his K% from 17.3 as a RP to 25.7 as a SP. His ERA as a member of the rotation was 3.06, which sat right between his 2.92 FIP and 3.22 xFIP. He’s a ground ball pitcher with good K rates, a very good slider, and great velocity pitching in a favorable home park. Even though Ross isn’t flying under very many radars, he’s definitely someone to target. Players with similar stat lines: Alexi Ogando; Taijuan Walker; Wandy Rodriguez Players with similar stat lines: Jose Quintana; Alex Wood; Erik Johnson 2011 2012 2013 2014 14 29 16 24 82.2 189.1 108.1 145.0 6-3 11-8 12-1 10-4 0 0 0 0 60 129 96 118 1.29 1.33 1.02 1.26 3.48 4.56 1.74 2.99 4.34 4.65 2.78 4.30 2011 2012 2013 2014 9 18 35 35 36.0 73.1 125.0 178.0 3-3 2-11 3-8 10-7 0 0 0 0 24 46 119 159 1.28 1.81 1.15 1.30 2.75 6.50 3.17 3.39 3.14 4.80 3.20 3.46 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.0 16.1 23.1 19.0 8.8 8.0 8.7 8.3 1.31 1.45 1.50 1.50 .238 .258 .198 .225 .264 .283 .254 .259 10.1% 13.0% 4.5% 12.2% -2.59 -1.31 2.15 -1.56 380 288 108 289 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.6 13.5 23.6 20.7 9.0 10.8 8.7 8.3 1.56 1.84 1.85 1.88 .250 .320 .221 .231 .299 .360 .282 .287 3.1% 10.4% 8.2% 7.8% -3.95 -6.86 -1.28 -1.86 525 918 286 302 Dan Straily | OAK | Age: 25 | Rk: 74 (290) Erik Johnson | CHW | Age: 24 | Rk: 77 (305) Position: SP Position: SP Straily was solid in his 152.1 IP last year. His 3.96 ERA and 1.24 WHIP were more or less average -- in fact, everything about him was average. But average isn’t always bad. In fact, 186 IP of average makes you the 73rd-best SP in our 2014 rankings. Though we projected Straily’s WHIP to rise from 1.24 to 1.28 due to a little less batted ball luck, he has a history of better walk rates in the minors and could end up surprising us with a 1.20 WHIP or better if he can improve his control and again see extra fly balls find fielders’ gloves. Johnson has been one of my favorite sleeper SP this season, and I’ve heard his name in a few other places so clearly I’m not alone. His 14.1 K% in very limited time with the White Sox last year belies his 25%+ rates in the minors, and Johnson induces enough grounders to potentially escape the U.S. Cellular HR trap. The White Sox are in need of SP, and Johnson has risen quickly through their system with success at every level. He makes for one of 2014’s best late-round sleeper targets. Players with similar stat lines: Rick Porcello; Francisco Liriano; Dillon Gee 2011 2012 2013 2014 7 27 32 2011 2012 18.6 2013 19.4 2014 19.4 39.1 2-1 152.1 10-8 186.0 13-11 9.3 8.9 8.5 0.55 0.84 0.76 Players with similar stat lines: Rick Porcello; Josh Johnson; Wei-Yin Chen 0 0 0 32 124 155 1.32 1.24 1.28 3.89 3.96 3.88 6.48 4.05 4.23 2011 2012 2013 2014 .234 .229 .228 .225 .266 .266 16.7% 8.2% 8.8% -4.26 -0.57 -1.57 549 242 290 2011 2012 2013 14.1 2014 20.1 5 29 27.2 181.0 3-2 12-9 0 0 18 158 1.55 1.34 3.25 3.50 5.40 4.17 8.6 7.6 1.32 1.30 .276 .247 .290 .290 14.7% 12.0% -4.82 -1.99 628 305 Rick Porcello | DET | Age: 25 | Rk: 75 (296) Jake Odorizzi | TB | Age: 24 | Rk: 78 (307) Position: SP/RP Position: SP/RP Porcello is often touted as the next Homer Bailey, the SP who debuted early and spent years slowly getting better before breaking out. That’s a very definite possibility, and Porcello made a huge leap with his strikeout rate last year, but he still allows a lot of line drives, leading to a below average OBA. Though Porcello’s ERA was better in the 2nd half last year (3.71 vs. 4.80), his peripherals took a small downward turn. I want to be clear that I’m not writing him off, but it’ll take a similarly large jump for him to break out in 2014. With news that Jeremy Hellickson underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in January, Odorizzi finally has a rotation spot! This projection is only based on 131 IP since the Rays have a very crowded rotation, but I’d imagine that with Hellickson’s recent struggles, if Odorizzi pitches well he’ll be able to hold down a spot for the long term. If you’re looking to buy stock in a potential top-30 SP right now, Odorizzi is one of the 1st guys that you should look at. Players with similar stat lines: Dan Straily; Erik Johnson; Francisco Liriano 2011 2012 2013 2014 31 31 32 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 13.3 13.7 19.3 18.9 182.0 14-9 176.1 10-12 177.0 13-8 187.0 13-9 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.7 1.73 2.36 2.34 2.30 Players with similar stat lines: Alexi Ogando; Clay Buchholz; Bartolo Colon 0 0 0 0 104 107 142 152 1.41 1.53 1.28 1.31 4.75 4.59 4.32 3.71 4.06 3.91 3.53 3.39 2011 2012 2013 2014 .288 .308 .268 .257 .316 .344 .315 .309 9.9% 11.5% 14.1% 10.4% -1.91 -3.54 -0.15 -1.76 320 474 218 296 2011 2012 11.8 2013 18.0 2014 18.8 2 7 28 7.1 29.2 131.0 0-1 0-1 10-4 0 1 0 4 22 103 1.64 1.21 1.20 4.91 3.94 3.54 5.41 3.89 4.63 11.8 6.6 6.2 0.58 0.76 0.81 .267 .250 .232 .280 .287 .255 8.3% 7.9% 12.4% -6.82 -6.51 -2.01 911 900 307 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 99 Brandon McCarthy | ARI | Age: 30 | Rk: 79 (310) Bartolo Colon | NYM | Age: 41 | Rk: 82 (327) Position: SP Position: SP The 116 K we project from McCarthy definitely aren’t exciting, but he did rank 42nd in 2011 with the Athletics. McCarthy has had a tough time staying on the field (not his fault, mind you), but he’s one of the game’s elite control-first, ground ball starters and has posted a WHIP as low as 1.13. If I recall, he even made an SI cover for his newfound approach. You won’t get counting stats here, but you’ll get some potentially above average rate stats on a spot start basis. Players with similar stat lines: Bronson Arroyo; Bartolo Colon; Dan Straily 2011 2012 2013 2014 25 18 22 30 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.8 15.6 13.2 15.1 170.2 9-9 111.0 8-6 135.0 5-11 181.0 13-10 3.6 5.1 3.6 4.9 1.45 1.15 1.78 1.48 Wow, talk about a weird season. After ranking 67th and 69th in 2011 and 2012, Colon re-emerged and posted the 12th-best fantasy line among SP in 2013. We don’t buy it and neither do you, but you might think Colon has more value than he really does. Stop it. His 2.65 ERA was a full 33% lower than his 3.95 xFIP, and while Citi Field isn’t a HR-friendly venue, Colon will definitely post a HR/FB rate higher than 6.0%. Limiting walks is great, but Colon’s K% is even lower than Arroyo’s! Ranking him inside the top 60-70 is ludicrous. Players with similar stat lines: Brandon McCarthy; Bronson Arroyo; Jaime Garcia 0 0 0 0 123 73 76 116 1.13 1.25 1.35 1.24 3.32 3.24 4.53 3.88 2.86 3.76 3.75 4.15 2011 2012 2013 2014 29 24 30 31 .253 .262 .292 .248 .296 .295 .320 .274 6.4% 8.1% 10.3% 11.5% 0.91 -1.22 -4.02 -2.07 145 280 521 310 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.5 14.3 15.2 14.5 164.1 8-10 152.1 10-9 190.1 18-6 182.0 12-10 5.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 1.22 1.26 1.09 1.17 0 0 0 0 135 91 117 112 1.29 1.21 1.17 1.25 4.00 3.43 2.65 3.60 3.83 3.82 3.23 3.86 .264 .263 .261 .263 .305 .286 .294 .293 11.4% 9.1% 6.0% 8.4% -0.95 -0.03 3.77 -2.38 248 208 55 327 Bronson Arroyo | ARI | Age: 37 | Rk: 80 (313) Josh Johnson | SD | Age: 30 | Rk: 83 (335) Position: SP Position: SP Arroyo has started no fewer than 32 games for 9 straight seasons and is tied with Dan Haren for most starts over that span (297). He’s had an ERA between 3.74-3.88 in 4 of the last 5 years, and his walk rate just keeps getting better. He’s posted a WHIP of 1.21 or lower in 3 of the last 4 years, despite changing teams this year, Arroyo just won’t go away. He’s not super-relevant because the only thing lower than his walk rate is his strikeout rate (sarcasm), but I guarantee you’ll think about adding him at some point in 2014. Johnson is intriguing because of where he now calls home: PETCO Park. His elbow reportedly “feels great” and even in his awful half-season with Toronto last year he was able to strike out more than a batter per inning, but a ridiculous 18.5% HR/FB rate and .356 BABIP did him him. Those are completely ridiculous, unsustainably bad rates. While Johnson is assuredly going to be a fantasy-relevant SP in 2014, “How relevant?” is the question we now must ask ourselves. You have to keep an eye on him, though. Players with similar stat lines: Brandon McCarthy; Bartolo Colon; Dan Straily 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 32 32 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 12.6 15.5 15.1 14.6 199.0 9-12 202.0 12-10 202.0 14-12 200.0 13-10 5.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 0.91 1.11 1.26 1.13 Players with similar stat lines: Joe Kelly; Wei-Yin Chen; Wade Miley 0 0 0 0 108 129 124 123 1.37 1.21 1.15 1.22 5.07 3.74 3.79 4.04 5.71 4.08 4.49 4.07 2011 2012 2013 2014 9 31 16 28 .282 .263 .254 .255 .278 .286 .267 .279 15.9% 10.6% 14.0% 9.5% -3.33 1.14 1.43 -2.10 452 147 144 313 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.9 20.7 21.6 21.9 60.1 3-1 191.1 8-14 81.1 2-8 167.0 11-14 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.7 1.49 1.53 1.47 1.49 0 0 0 0 56 165 83 160 0.98 1.28 1.66 1.38 1.64 3.81 6.20 3.56 2.64 3.40 4.62 3.51 .183 .247 .299 .253 .239 .302 .356 .317 3.8% 8.4% 18.5% 9.9% -1.89 0.23 -6.04 -2.57 317 196 809 335 Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | Age: 30 | Rk: 81 (318) Yovani Gallardo | MIL | Age: 28 | Rk: 84 (338) Position: SP Position: SP A dominant strikeout pitcher who finally found a home, Jimenez’s rank takes a hit because he’s the first guy in our rankings with a WHIP over 1.40. Even last year when Jimenez was his old self (referring to that great 1st half he had in 2010), he still posted a 1.33 WHIP. I will fully, 100% acknowledge that for any given month or set of months, Jimenez could be a top 20 SP, but he has never consistently pitched well for a full season. Even last year when he ranked 16th among SP, his his xFIP was 3.64 and he walked nearly 4.00 batters per 9 IP. Gallardo was a top 30 SP in 2011 and 2012 before falling to 86th last year, and that’s right where we have him for 2014. He’s lost 2 mph off his velocity over the last 2 years and no longer posts elite strikeout rates, and in only 1 of his last 5 years has he posted a WHIP under 1.30. Without the Ks, there isn’t a ton of value to Gallardo. He’ll toss 185+ IP, could post a mid-3.00s ERA with some luck, and Milwaukee’s offense looks improved enough to give him an outside shot at a 15 or 16 W season, but that’s mostly wishful thinking. Players with similar stat lines: Yovani Gallardo; Erik Johnson; C.J. Wilson 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 31 32 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.9 17.8 25.0 22.8 188.1 10-13 176.2 9-17 182.2 13-9 185.0 13-11 9.5 11.8 10.3 9.6 1.42 1.00 1.21 1.15 Players with similar stat lines: Wei-Yin Chen; Tyler Skaggs; Josh Johnson 0 0 0 0 180 143 194 187 1.40 1.61 1.33 1.43 4.68 5.40 3.30 3.52 3.67 5.06 3.43 3.69 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 33 31 32 .253 .271 .235 .243 .314 .309 .304 .310 9.3% 11.8% 9.0% 8.2% -1.22 -4.61 1.98 -2.18 267 589 115 318 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.9 23.7 18.6 20.1 207.1 17-10 204.0 16-9 180.2 12-10 194.0 13-10 6.8 9.4 8.5 8.4 1.28 1.51 1.78 1.65 0 0 0 0 207 204 144 170 1.22 1.30 1.36 1.37 3.52 3.66 4.18 3.89 3.59 3.94 3.89 3.78 .240 .237 .256 .248 .291 .290 .299 .301 12.7% 14.9% 11.9% 10.7% 3.93 2.96 -0.76 -2.59 52 84 250 338 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 100 | Baseball Professor Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | Age: 28 | Rk: 85 (341) Joe Kelly | STL | Age: 26 | Rk: 88 (345) Position: SP Position: SP/RP On a per-IP basis, Chen’s 2012 and 2013 seasons were pretty similar. He saw his WHIP rise last year as his BABIP corrected itself, so that’s the level of production that we’ll project going forward (that is, until Chen shows us something else). Assuming health, he should stay in the Baltimore rotation all season and approach 200 IP. While his ERA and WHIP will probably be a little below average, 190+ quality innings carries weight on its own, and 150+ K isn’t a terrible total. I was surprised to learn that Kelly has the best average fastball velocity of any Cardinals SP, yet he easily has the lowest strikeout rate. A rotation spot isn’t assured, but I think Kelly beats out Lance Lynn in the spring and locks down a job. Kelly’s walk rate isn’t that great, merely league average, and a below average K% leaves him in the “hurts you in WHIP” category, so he’ll either need to rack up more Ks, post a great ERA, luck into some Ws, get lucky, or have some combination of the 4 to do much better than this. Players with similar stat lines: Tyler Skaggs; Joe Kelly; Josh Johnson 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 23 32 2011 2012 18.8 2013 18.2 2014 18.3 192.2 12-11 137.0 7-7 192.0 12-9 7.0 6.8 6.5 0.88 0.84 0.76 Players with similar stat lines: Wade Miley; Tyler Skaggs; Wei-Yin Chen 0 0 0 154 104 152 1.26 1.32 1.32 4.02 4.07 3.88 4.42 4.04 3.19 2011 2012 2013 2014 .246 .267 .255 .274 .305 .309 11.7% 9.9% 5.1% 0.79 -2.31 -2.72 169 356 341 2011 2012 16.4 2013 14.9 2014 18.6 24 37 31 107.0 124.0 181.0 5-7 10-5 11-8 0 0 0 75 79 146 1.38 1.35 1.34 3.53 2.69 3.71 4.00 4.01 3.16 7.9 8.3 8.2 1.88 1.81 1.79 .268 .257 .242 .306 .289 .300 11.0% 8.9% 4.6% -2.75 -0.87 -2.84 399 258 345 Tyler Skaggs | LAA | Age: 22 | Rk: 86 (343) Jeremy Hellickson | TB | Age: 27 | Rk: 89 (351) Position: SP Position: SP/RP Skaggs has generated some buzz over the last 2 years. Now a member of the Angels, Skaggs finds himself with a rotation spot in a better pitcher’s park, and he’s set to show us what he can do. For the most part Skaggs appears to be a moderately high strikeout starter, but his velocity isn’t great, so I’ll take a more wait-and-see approach there. His ability to control the free passes, something he struggled with at all levels in 2013, could dictate how quickly he develops. He does exist! Hellickson has fallen hard over the last 2 seasons, underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in January, and now finds his job security non-existent (I really like Jake Odorizzi). When he gets back and is fully ready to withstand the rigors of getting lit up by opposing offenses, I have to think Hellickson will find his way into the rotation, but I’m not sure for whom. It could be a rocky journey back as the slumping SP waits for someone else to falter (Chris Archer?) before he gets his shot. Players with similar stat lines: Wei-Yin Chen; Joe Kelly; Josh Johnson 2011 2012 2013 2014 6 7 29 2011 2012 15.8 2013 21.2 2014 19.8 29.1 1-3 38.2 2-3 171.0 12-10 9.8 8.8 8.8 0.71 1.27 1.05 Players with similar stat lines: Miguel Gonzalez; Bruce Chen; Mike Leake 0 0 0 21 36 148 1.47 1.37 1.36 5.83 5.12 3.78 5.86 4.86 4.57 2011 2012 2013 2014 29 31 32 32 .254 .248 .238 .264 .282 .274 13.3% 17.1% 12.6% -5.30 -5.02 -2.78 664 647 343 2011 2012 2013 2014 15.1 16.7 18.3 16.4 189.0 13-10 177.0 10-11 174.0 12-10 133.2 12-5 9.3 8.0 6.8 6.7 0.78 1.12 0.98 0.97 0 0 0 0 117 124 135 94 1.15 1.25 1.35 1.29 2.95 3.10 5.17 4.05 4.44 4.60 4.22 3.73 .209 .240 .271 .248 .223 .261 .307 .288 8.1% 12.4% 10.9% 6.3% 2.31 0.98 -2.05 -2.93 90 157 345 351 Tim Lincecum | SF | Age: 30 | Rk: 87 (344) Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | Age: 30 | Rk: 90 (353) Position: SP Position: SP/RP Lincecum was last elite in 2011, ranking 13th among all SP that year. Undoubtedly, 2012 was a lost season, but Lincecum rebounded a bit last year to post the 75th-best line in fantasy. Look, he’ll still provide the Ks a la Ubaldo Jimenez, but the upside here is long gone. At best his walk rate is below average, and opponents have squared up well against him for 2 years now (23+ LD% in 2012 and 2013), meaning he’ll struggle to post an elite OBA, which would be needed for anything resembling a good WHIP. Gonzalez has been sneakily reliable for the last 2 seasons, posting WHIPs of 1.21 and 1.23, but he’s also had BABIPs of .260 in both seasons -- that’s not happening again. He’s a ground ball pitcher with slightly above average IFFB%s, but the 21%+ line drive rate indicates those BABIPs are more mirage than skill. Assuming that rises as we expect, so will his ERA and WHIP. I’ll still target Gonzalez heavily in spot start situations, but I doubt he’ll be a permament back-of-the-fantasy-rotation material. Players with similar stat lines: Ian Kennedy; Yovani Gallardo; Wei-Yin Chen Players with similar stat lines: Mike Leake; Chris Archer; Scott Feldman 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 33 32 32 217.0 186.0 197.2 195.0 13-14 10-15 10-14 12-11 0 0 0 0 220 190 193 190 1.21 1.47 1.32 1.34 2.74 5.18 4.37 4.46 3.17 4.18 3.74 3.84 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 24.4 23.0 23.0 22.4 9.6 10.9 9.0 8.3 1.45 1.51 1.43 1.46 .218 .250 .243 .241 .281 .309 .300 .298 8.0% 14.6% 12.1% 12.2% 4.61 -2.19 -0.28 -2.83 38 353 224 344 2011 2012 17.7 2013 16.9 2014 17.3 18 30 31 105.1 9-4 171.1 11-8 180.0 11-10 8.1 7.4 7.0 0.82 0.97 0.92 0 0 0 77 120 133 1.21 1.23 1.28 3.25 3.78 4.10 4.38 4.45 3.95 .234 .239 .243 .260 .260 .280 9.8% 11.4% 8.1% -0.76 -0.10 -2.95 253 214 353 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 101 Jaime Garcia | STL | Age: 27 | Rk: 91 (354) Scott Baker | SEA | Age: 32 | Rk: 94 (362) Position: SP Position: SP Garcia has had a difficult time staying healthy, but he’s done a solid job of preventing runners from scoring when he’s been on the mound. Interestingly, Garcia’s xFIP in particular has been very good for 3 straight seasons with last year’s 15.4% HR/FB rate marring his ERA. He has very good control but only average strikeout potential, and a rotation spot is likely his if he makes it through the spring in 1 piece. Because of issues with durability I’d only use Garcia in a spot start role, but I’ll use him heavily there. I was a little surprised when I went through the team-by-team projected rotations and saw Baker listed as Seattle’s number 2 SP. On the one hand, I bet the Mariners wish they had a little more SP depth, but on the other hand, Baker is a little underrated. We don’t do him any favors (he barely cracks our top 100 SP), but after 2 lost seasons, he does have a lot to prove. Baker is known for his nearelite control, but as a high-contact fly ball pitcher he’ll need some HR luck to have a good year. Thankfully, he plays for the Mariners. Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Morrow; Matt Harrison; Paul Maholm Players with similar stat lines: Chris Archer; Jon Niese; Zack Wheeler 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 20 9 25 194.2 121.2 55.1 146.0 13-7 7-7 5-2 9-6 0 0 0 0 156 98 43 117 1.32 1.36 1.30 1.32 3.56 3.92 3.58 3.39 3.23 2.97 3.72 3.71 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.9 19.0 18.4 18.6 6.1 5.8 6.4 6.0 1.92 2.07 2.79 2.13 .267 .280 .260 .255 .318 .339 .300 .301 8.9% 7.2% 15.4% 12.0% 1.05 -2.07 -3.57 -2.97 138 345 481 354 2011 22.5 2012 2013 10.5 2014 20.0 23 3 26 134.2 15.0 167.0 8-6 0-0 10-9 0 0 0 123 6 144 1.17 0.87 1.33 3.14 3.60 3.87 3.45 5.65 4.70 5.8 7.0 6.3 0.77 0.48 0.71 .246 .170 .252 .297 .136 .285 8.7% 11.1% 12.3% 0.28 -6.70 -3.08 185 939 362 Mike Leake | CIN | Age: 26 | Rk: 92 (356) Martin Perez | TEX | Age: 23 | Rk: 95 (363) Position: SP Position: SP Leake posted a 3.37 ERA in 192.1 IP last season, ranking 52nd among SP despite a pathetic 15.2 K% and 5.71 K/9. When the ERA corrects itself -- and with a 4.04 FIP, 3.91 xFIP, .285 BABIP, and 77.7% strand rate it most certainly will -- Leake will fall from relevance to the ranks of the replacements. Without any significant strikeout potential, there’s virtually no hope for Leake to get any better. The only way he’s repeating last year is with a second helping of luck, and that’s not something I’m betting on. Perez was the 100th-ranked SP last season, and that’s right where we have him this year. There’s nothing crazy about his stat line and there are no bold proclamations here. He has average strikeout potential that will likely be below average, and his control is pretty decent. He keeps the ball down well enough and pitches an average number of innings. Perez is a low-ceiling, high-floor pitcher who will make his starts, rack up his stats, and be done with it. Players with similar stat lines: Miguel Gonzalez; Jhoulys Chacin; Chris Archer 2011 2012 2013 2014 29 30 31 30 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.0 15.3 15.2 15.7 167.2 12-9 179.0 8-9 192.1 14-7 188.0 12-10 5.5 5.4 6.0 5.6 1.50 1.84 1.63 1.66 Players with similar stat lines: Jhoulys Chacin; Wade Miley; Jason Vargas 0 0 0 0 118 116 122 127 1.17 1.35 1.25 1.30 3.86 4.58 3.37 3.97 4.22 4.42 4.04 4.08 2011 2012 2013 2014 .246 .282 .258 .254 .269 .306 .285 .286 13.9% 16.7% 11.5% 11.5% 0.59 -2.40 1.19 -3.00 162 372 152 356 2011 2012 14.1 2013 15.9 2014 16.6 12 20 29 38.0 124.1 182.0 1-4 10-6 13-9 0 0 0 25 84 132 1.63 1.34 1.37 5.45 3.62 3.83 4.15 4.23 3.83 8.5 7.0 7.0 1.63 1.54 1.49 .294 .264 .257 .333 .292 .299 7.5% 12.0% 8.5% -5.57 -1.61 -3.11 700 296 363 Wade Miley | ARI | Age: 27 | Rk: 93 (359) Ian Kennedy | SD | Age: 29 | Rk: 96 (365) Position: SP Position: SP Miley dominated in 2012 thanks to some batted ball luck (6.9% HR/FB rate) and very elite control (4.6 BB%) but was unable to sustain either and took a tumble from 25th to 68th in the endof-season SP rankings. We have him set for another fall this year with his projected 3.71 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Miley is a serviceable real like SP who can be streamed for a few extra Ks or maybe a W in the right situations, but he has very limited upside in fantasy and will struggle to be a top 50 SP ever again. Players with similar stat lines: Joe Kelly; Jon Niese; Jhoulys Chacin 2011 2012 2013 2014 8 32 33 33 2011 2012 2013 2014 13.9 17.8 17.4 16.7 40.0 4-2 194.2 16-11 202.2 10-10 199.0 11-11 10.0 4.6 7.8 6.9 1.54 1.28 1.91 1.68 Kennedy was the 7th-best SP in fantasy in 2011, fell to 37th in 2012, and then disappeared last season (152nd). His K% is consistent in the low-20s, which puts him around 8.00 K/9, and he consistently gets burned by the long ball. That’s the price you pay for being a fly ball pitcher in Arizona. On the bright side, Kennedy pitches nearly 200 innings every year, and there’s a non-zero chance he gets some batted ball luck and limits the walks en route to a solid season. Something around a 3.40 ERA/1.20 WHIP is possible. Players with similar stat lines: Hector Santiago; Jason Vargas; Chris Archer 0 0 0 0 25 144 147 144 1.65 1.18 1.32 1.33 4.50 3.33 3.55 3.71 5.08 3.15 3.98 3.84 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 33 31 32 .296 .251 .259 .252 .321 .293 .296 .292 15.4% 6.9% 12.5% 9.5% -4.71 3.21 -0.08 -3.01 604 73 211 359 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.0 20.8 20.5 20.5 222.0 21-4 208.1 15-12 181.1 7-10 195.0 11-12 6.1 6.1 9.2 7.4 0.98 0.88 0.99 0.93 0 0 0 0 198 187 163 174 1.09 1.30 1.40 1.35 2.88 4.02 4.91 4.16 3.22 4.04 4.59 4.01 .222 .260 .254 .247 .270 .306 .295 .296 7.7% 10.8% 13.2% 9.6% 6.93 1.82 -2.85 -3.15 18 120 407 365 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 102 | Baseball Professor Jon Niese | NYM | Age: 27 | Rk: 97 (368) Jhoulys Chacin | COL | Age: 26 | Rk: 100 (372) Position: SP Position: SP Jon Niese, Opening Day Starter -- it has a nice ring, doesn’t it? Probably not to Mets fans, but reportedly New York manager Terry Collins is leaning towards using Niese on Opening Day for the 2nd straight season. Niese is fine and dandy as a 4th SP on a contender, but he’s definitely not Opening Day material. As for your fantasy team, Niese has been as valuable as 30th among SP as recently as 2012, and he definitely has that kind of potential. Don’t worry about last year’s 6.61 K/9. It rebounded nicely in the 2nd half. Last year, Chacin allowed 11 HR in 197.1 IP, and he plays for the Rockies! His 6.2% HR/FB rate will most likely double this year, and that’s going to cause real problems for his ERA. Thankfuly, Chacin keeps the ball on the ground so that still means a below average amount of HR allowed, but his 3.97 xFIP is more of what we should expect. He doesn’t have a good strikeout rate, meaning batted ball luck is the only way his WHIP escapes the 1.30s, and I don’t think he’ll win 14 games again. Almost everything should get worse here. Players with similar stat lines: Wade Miley; Joe Kelly; Scott Baker 2011 2012 2013 2014 27 30 24 29 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.9 19.7 16.9 18.7 157.1 11-11 190.1 13-9 143.0 8-8 184.0 10-10 6.3 6.2 7.7 6.8 1.84 1.57 1.91 1.75 Players with similar stat lines: Martin Perez; Jason Vargas; Wade Miley 0 0 0 0 138 155 105 150 1.41 1.17 1.44 1.35 4.40 3.40 3.71 3.71 3.36 3.80 3.58 3.94 2011 2012 2013 2014 31 14 31 31 .276 .237 .278 .253 .333 .272 .326 .298 10.4% 12.6% 8.2% 12.1% -1.31 2.69 -2.34 -3.18 272 91 359 368 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.1 14.3 15.4 15.1 194.0 11-14 69.0 3-5 197.1 14-10 198.0 12-11 10.5 10.2 7.5 6.9 1.99 1.03 1.63 1.55 0 0 0 0 150 45 126 130 1.31 1.62 1.26 1.33 3.62 4.43 3.47 3.84 4.23 5.15 3.47 4.17 .228 .286 .250 .252 .261 .311 .288 .283 12.2% 11.6% 6.2% 10.4% 0.43 -4.98 1.07 -3.28 176 624 157 372 Chris Archer | TB | Age: 25 | Rk: 98 (369) Zack Wheeler | NYM | Age: 24 | Rk: 101 (378) Position: SP Position: SP Archer = Edwin Jackson. Look at their repertoires, their amateur draft positions, their minor league careers, their path to the majors, their first seasons -- everything is almost identical. Archer overachieved last year and posted a 3.22 ERA despite a 4.07 FIP and 3.91 xFIP, and I don’t think he’ll be nearly as good in 2014. His strikeout rate is nothing special, and though he got the walks under control with the Rays, that was the first semblance of good control I’ve ever seen from him. He has potential, but I’m not buying into it now. If you had to draft 1 player we have ranked outside the top 90, it might be Wheeler (OK, it would probably be Archer, but Wheeler is 1b). Walks are his limiting factor, and we’ll just have to wait and see whether those improve enough to give Wheeler any value. There’s serious strikeout potential here, but in 17 starts for the Mets last year, Wheeler only managed a 19.5 K%. His August stats (3.13 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 22.9 K%, 7.0 BB%) are the best-case scenario, and that’s pretty darn great. Players with similar stat lines: Jason Vargas; Scott Baker; Miguel Gonzalez 2011 2012 2013 2014 6 23 26 2011 2012 29.5 2013 19.2 2014 19.1 29.1 1-3 128.2 9-7 172.0 11-10 10.7 7.2 7.9 1.15 1.38 1.34 Players with similar stat lines: Jon Niese; Scott Baker; Chris Archer 0 0 0 36 101 142 1.23 1.13 1.34 4.60 3.22 4.04 3.40 4.07 4.19 2011 2012 2013 2014 .213 .223 .239 .290 .253 .280 11.1% 11.7% 11.0% -5.47 -0.05 -3.20 690 209 369 2011 2012 2013 19.5 2014 20.5 17 29 100.0 176.0 7-5 9-10 0 0 84 157 1.36 1.34 3.42 3.89 4.17 3.61 10.7 9.6 1.30 1.26 .236 .228 .279 .283 10.2% 6.9% -2.27 -3.34 354 378 Jason Vargas | KC | Age: 31 | Rk: 99 (370) Scott Feldman | HOU | Age: 31 | Rk: 102 (379) Position: SP Position: SP Left-handed Bronson Arroyo with a little less control, Vargas makes his starts each season and ends up sneaking up the endof-season ranks. He only started 24 games last year for the Angels, but he’s usually good for 33 starts and 200+ IP with an ERA in the high 3.00s or low 4.00s and a WHIP around 1.30. He’s a fly ball pitcher in a pretty spacious park, and he has Mike Trout vacuuming everything up in the outfield. You won’t draft a low-upside starter like Vargas, but you’ll add him at some point. Players with similar stat lines: Chris Archer; Jhoulys Chacin; Tyler Skaggs 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 33 24 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 15.3 15.9 16.9 16.4 201.0 10-13 217.1 14-11 150.0 9-8 203.0 12-12 6.9 6.2 7.1 6.5 0.83 0.99 1.04 0.97 Feldman made 30 starts last year for the 1st time since 2009, posted a career-best 3.86 ERA, and then bolted to the Astros for $30MM. Not a bad season, huh? His 59th-overall rank among SP was decent, and it made Feldman a rosterable low-end SP in 10and 12-team formats, and there’s no reason he can’t be that good again. We just think his .258 BABIP is likely to regress a little, and that’ll push his WHIP up from 1.18 to something around 1.27. His ERA should be similar, though we have it a notch over 4.00. Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Morrow; Paul Maholm; Miguel Gonzalez 0 0 0 0 131 141 109 143 1.31 1.18 1.39 1.31 4.25 3.85 4.02 4.14 4.09 4.69 4.09 4.23 2011 2012 2013 2014 11 29 30 32 .258 .242 .273 .251 .285 .254 .310 .282 7.7% 12.8% 9.2% 9.3% -1.09 2.06 -2.10 -3.24 257 113 348 370 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.1 17.9 17.4 17.3 32.0 2-1 123.2 6-11 181.2 12-12 186.0 9-13 7.8 6.0 7.4 7.0 2.46 1.33 1.58 1.54 0 0 0 0 22 96 132 138 1.09 1.38 1.18 1.27 3.94 5.09 3.86 4.07 3.99 3.81 4.03 4.25 .214 .276 .229 .237 .239 .318 .258 .268 12.5% 10.9% 11.0% 12.1% -4.74 -3.49 0.68 -3.34 609 471 173 379 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 103 Henderson Alvarez | MIA | Age: 24 | Rk: 103 (382) John Danks | CHW | Age: 29 | Rk: 106 (390) Position: SP Position: SP We’re really scratching the bottom of the barrel here. We project Alvarez for his best-ever fantasy season, using his low-strikeout, good control ways to fool opponents to the tune of a near4.00 ERA. His ERA and WHIP were actually better than these projections last year, but we’re giving him 172 innings of slightly worse production, and the quantity is what eeks out this 102nd overall rankings. Bluntly, you’re either in a really deep league or trouble if you’re turning to Alvarez for more than a single start. Players with similar stat lines: Carlos Villanueva; Brett Oberholtzer; Josh Collmenter 2011 2012 2013 2014 10 31 17 27 2011 15.4 2012 9.8 2013 13.6 2014 14.2 In 2009, Danks pitched 195 innings of 3.32 ERA ball, won 12 games, and finished with a 1.23 WHIP. His win total increased to 13 the next year, then 15, and though his ERAs had settled in around 3.70, recall that was actually average back in the day. Over the last 3 years, the league average ERA has plummeted, but Danks’ has kept rising. He only made 9 starts in 2009 and last year he came back to pitch 138.1 innings of bad baseball. He makes the list because he’s been good and he’s still young, but he isn’t worth gambling on. Players with similar stat lines: Miguel A. Gonzalez; Brandon Morrow; Matt Harrison 63.2 187.1 102.2 172.0 1-3 9-14 5-6 7-11 0 0 0 0 40 79 57 102 1.13 1.44 1.14 1.17 3.53 4.85 3.59 3.96 3.97 5.18 3.18 4.61 2011 2012 2013 2014 27 9 22 29 3.1 6.7 6.5 6.4 2.04 2.34 2.18 2.27 .259 .288 .234 .222 .281 .291 .271 .235 15.1% 18.1% 2.6% 16.5% -3.86 -4.12 -2.61 -3.39 518 537 386 382 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.5 12.6 15.3 16.0 170.1 8-12 53.2 3-4 138.1 4-14 183.0 10-10 6.3 9.7 4.6 6.0 1.20 1.12 1.13 1.16 0 0 0 0 135 30 89 126 1.34 1.49 1.29 1.32 4.33 5.70 4.75 3.89 3.82 5.01 5.06 4.46 .270 .266 .274 .255 .313 .282 .283 .282 9.9% 10.8% 16.8% 11.6% -1.67 -5.18 -3.91 -3.56 300 649 505 390 Matt Harrison | TEX | Age: 28 | Rk: 104 (385) Bruce Chen | KC | Age: 37 | Rk: 107 (391) Position: SP Position: SP/RP After tossing 213.1 IP in 2012, Harrison missed almost all of last year with a lower back injury. Our ranking and projection definitely penalize him for not pitching last year (whether that’s fair or not is up to you). Don’t forget how great Harrison was in 2011 and 2012, though, when he ranked 36th and 29th among all SP. His worst ERA in those 2 years was 3.39, his worst WHIP was 1.28, and he actually won 18 games in 2012. All of those numbers are within reach for 2014, though admittedly I didn’t want to rank him much higher. Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Morrow; John Danks; Miguel A. Gonzalez 2011 2012 2013 2014 31 32 2 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.3 15.2 23.5 15.8 185.2 14-9 213.1 18-11 10.2 0-2 165.0 10-8 7.4 6.7 13.7 6.5 1.47 1.58 1.40 1.56 Chen is a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher who doesn’t strike many batters out. That’s not supposed to work, but somehow the southpaw has turned in serviceable seasons in 2 of the last 3 years (albeit last year he was limited to just 121 IP). Ranking as well as 63rd among SP in 2011, Chen actually has the potential to be a very good spot starter, and perhaps playing home games in Kansas City will keep his HR/FB rate well below the league average (it’s been 8.1% or lower in 3 of the last 4 years). That’s all the good I have to say. Players with similar stat lines: Paul Maholm; Brett Oberholtzer; Carlos Villanueva 0 0 0 0 126 133 12 113 1.28 1.26 1.97 1.32 3.39 3.29 8.44 3.75 3.52 4.03 5.20 3.98 2011 2012 2013 2014 25 34 34 33 .252 .257 .318 .256 .290 .284 .400 .290 7.1% 10.5% 20.0% 9.9% 1.17 2.90 -6.78 -3.46 135 86 968 385 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.8 16.9 15.7 15.4 155.0 12-8 191.2 11-14 121.0 9-4 166.0 9-7 7.7 5.7 7.2 6.3 0.76 0.73 0.53 0.67 0 0 0 0 97 140 78 108 1.30 1.37 1.18 1.25 3.77 5.07 3.27 4.12 4.39 4.73 4.12 5.09 .255 .278 .233 .240 .278 .304 .255 .250 8.1% 11.9% 6.7% 11.7% -0.57 -2.12 -0.91 -3.58 229 350 260 391 Brandon Morrow | TOR | Age: 29 | Rk: 105 (386) Trevor Cahill | ARI | Age: 26 | Rk: 108 (392) Position: SP Position: SP/RP I was very high on Morrow after the phenomenal start he had to 2013, but then he struggled and got hurt and reminded us that we should never trust Brandon Morrow. We learned our lesson and only pegged him for a 3.76 ERA and some underwhelming strikeout numbers over 154 IP, but sooner or later Morrow could put it all together and give us one great fantasy season. You won’t want to be the one to draft him year after year expecting it, but if he starts 2014 hot like last year, I’ll jump on the bandwagon. From 2009-2012, Cahill showed yearly improvements with his strikeout rate, but his walk rate never really budged. Always a great ground ball pitcher, Cahill was able to get by well enough (career 3.89 ERA), but the luster has completely faded from his shiny 2.97 ERA in 2010, and all we’re left with now is an average innings eater. Like most everyone else in these ranks, Cahill’s only real role is as fantasy spot starter in standard leagues. Players with similar stat lines: Matt Harrison; John Danks; Paul Maholm 2011 2012 2013 2014 30 21 10 26 2011 2012 2013 2014 26.1 21.4 17.4 18.7 179.1 11-11 124.2 10-7 54.1 2-3 154.0 9-7 8.9 8.1 7.4 7.3 0.87 1.03 0.87 0.88 Players with similar stat lines: Phil Hughes; Mark Buehrle; Hector Santiago 0 0 0 0 203 108 42 125 1.29 1.11 1.49 1.34 4.72 2.96 5.63 3.76 3.64 3.65 5.42 4.29 2011 2012 2013 2014 34 32 26 32 .233 .213 .283 .245 .299 .252 .302 .284 10.4% 8.6% 15.6% 9.7% 0.28 1.13 -5.53 -3.46 184 149 709 386 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.3 18.6 16.0 16.8 207.2 12-14 200.0 13-12 146.2 8-10 198.0 13-11 9.1 8.8 10.2 9.3 2.21 2.69 2.34 2.50 0 0 0 0 147 156 102 146 1.43 1.29 1.42 1.38 4.16 3.78 3.99 4.14 4.10 3.85 4.26 3.94 .264 .244 .253 .238 .302 .289 .289 .281 11.6% 12.3% 12.1% 9.9% -1.11 1.15 -2.62 -3.64 259 145 389 392 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 104 | Baseball Professor Phil Hughes | MIN | Age: 28 | Rk: 109 (394) Carlos Villanueva | CHC | Age: 30 | Rk: 112 (400) Position: SP/RP Position: SP/RP Hughes is an extremely popular late-round target in 2014 drafts because the fly ball pitcher is finally leaving Yankee Stadium. I agree that this is a very good move for Hughes, but not enough to boost him very high in our rankings. Even if the HR woes correct themselves, which they almost certainly will, Hughes is still too hittable to post anything resembling a good (or even slightly below average) WHIP. The HR were a problem, but they weren’t the only problem. Players with similar stat lines: Trevor Cahill; Bud Norris; Hector Santiago 2011 2012 2013 2014 17 32 30 32 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.1 20.3 18.9 19.2 74.2 5-5 191.1 16-13 145.2 4-14 187.0 13-10 8.1 5.6 6.5 6.1 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.65 Most of the pitchers in this range get ranked down here because they don’t have the skills to be useful fantasy assets. That’s not the case with Villanueva. He bounces around between rotation and bullpen every year, never accruing more than 130 IP, but he makes those limited innings count with a strikeout rate around 8.00 K/9 and a solid walk rate. His ERA is below average, which is why he can’t find a permanent home in an MLB rotation, but from a fantasy persepective he’s a great spot start option. Players with similar stat lines: Henderson Alvarez; Brett Oberholtzer; Bruce Chen 0 0 0 0 47 165 121 159 1.49 1.26 1.46 1.43 5.79 4.23 5.19 4.17 4.58 4.56 4.50 4.47 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 38 47 40 107.0 125.1 128.2 122.1 6-4 7-7 7-8 7-7 0 0 0 0 68 122 103 101 1.26 1.27 1.22 1.25 4.04 4.16 4.06 4.09 4.10 4.71 3.86 4.10 .277 .257 .286 .273 .304 .286 .324 .315 8.0% 12.4% 11.1% 10.6% -4.81 1.65 -4.68 -3.65 619 128 604 394 2011 2012 2013 2014 15.0 23.4 19.7 19.4 7.1 8.8 7.6 7.7 0.84 0.83 1.03 1.04 .246 .239 .243 .228 .271 .275 .283 .265 7.5% 15.2% 9.8% 9.8% -2.66 -1.28 -1.79 -3.78 385 286 321 400 Miguel A. Gonzalez | PHI | Age: 27 | Rk: 110 (397) Ricky Nolasco | MIN | Age: 31 | Rk: 113 (403) Position: SP Position: SP/RP I hope you weren’t reading through every SP profile just looking for Gonzalez (actually, I hope you were!). It’s tough making a projection for international rookies, but from what I’ve read he possesses a very good two-seamer that induces a lot of grounders, but he’ll probably only have an average strikeout rate and control (at least at the start) over an unimpressive amount of IP. The lack of info means our rank could be way off, and that makes MAG a better sleeper than many in this range. Players with similar stat lines: John Danks; Ricky Nolasco; Matt Harrison 2011 2012 2013 2014 27 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.0 The largest free agent contract in Twins history belongs to Nolasco. Umm, what? Last year Nolasco finished the season ranked 45th among SP, but he was in the mid-90s in both 2011 and 2012, so I’m more inclined to believe his non-contract year performance is the real indicator of his probable stat line. The 3.70 ERA and best-since-2009 strikeout rate were nice last year, but Nolasco also allowed a career-worst 24.3 LD%. His ceiling is his 2013 season, but I’m not comfortable predicting that line from a Twin. Players with similar stat lines: Chris Capuano; Ryan Vogelsong; Kyle Kendrick 166.0 10-9 0 123 1.35 3.87 4.08 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 31 34 33 206.0 191.0 199.1 193.0 10-12 12-13 13-11 10-12 0 0 0 0 148 125 165 140 1.40 1.37 1.21 1.31 4.67 4.48 3.70 4.21 3.54 3.87 3.34 3.72 8.2 1.39 .243 .282 9.3% -3.72 397 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.6 15.0 19.8 16.8 4.9 5.7 5.5 5.7 1.45 1.47 1.32 1.39 .289 .275 .251 .256 .331 .309 .299 .297 9.5% 9.1% 8.7% 8.6% -2.04 -1.41 1.71 -3.80 334 293 133 403 Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | Age: 25 | Rk: 111 (398) Paul Maholm | LAD | Age: 32 | Rk: 114 (404) Position: SP/RP Position: SP Oberholtzer posted a 2.76 ERA in 71.2 IP last year, primarily getting it done with a sub-2.00 BB/9. A fastball-curveball-change-up pitcher has a history of higher strikeout rates in the minors, some as high as the mid-8.00s K/9 with similarly impressive walk rates. Because of the low walk rates, I have faith in Oberholtzer to post reliable WHIPs (his was 1.10 last year with a .260 BABIP), but I’m not sure how high the Ks will go. Admittedly, a not-insignificant part of me wants to use Oberholtzer as my go-to spot starter. Maholm disappeared after a very hot start to last year, but we all knew he would cool down. He’s Paul Maholm. He actually had pretty solid seasons in 2011 and 2012, evidence by his 87th and 41st rankings among SP those seasons, but Maholm’s LD% has only risen throughout his career. He’s not getting better, but he’s better than last year’s 1.41 WHIP. A correction to his 13.8% HR/FB rate should help push his ERA back under 4.00 as well. Players with similar stat lines: Carlos Villanueva; Lance Lynn; Bruce Chen 2011 2012 2013 2014 13 27 2011 2012 2013 15.4 2014 16.8 Players with similar stat lines: Brandon Morrow; Bruce Chen; Matt Harrison 71.2 166.0 4-5 7-13 0 0 45 118 1.10 1.23 2.76 4.11 3.65 4.53 2011 2012 2013 2014 26 32 26 27 4.4 5.3 0.84 0.92 .237 .244 .260 .267 7.1% 11.8% -2.75 -3.75 398 398 2011 2012 2013 2014 14.1 17.8 15.7 16.6 162.1 6-14 189.0 13-11 153.0 10-11 161.0 9-8 7.3 6.7 7.0 6.9 1.77 1.87 2.07 1.91 0 0 0 0 97 140 105 115 1.29 1.22 1.41 1.31 3.66 3.67 4.41 3.94 3.78 4.00 4.24 4.03 .254 .247 .276 .246 .286 .281 .310 .283 7.5% 12.8% 13.8% 11.8% -1.82 1.55 -2.50 -3.81 312 132 373 404 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook Baseball Professor | 105 Lance Lynn | STL | Age: 27 | Rk: 115 (407) Chris Capuano | FA | Age: 35 | Rk: 118 (416) Position: SP Position: SP/RP Lynn is one of the more volatile SP in our rankings because he could be a top 40 SP our fall outside the top 100. It all depends on whether he gets the last rotation spot. I’ve heard that the Cardinals don’t particularly like Lynn in the rotation, preferring Joe Kelly or one of their many young SP, but right now I see depth charts that have Lynn listed as one of their starting 5. If he makes the rotation, bump him up to 50-60, but no higher than that. His WHIP is too high. Players with similar stat lines: Brett Oberholtzer; Jenrry Mejia; Bruce Chen 2011 2012 2013 2014 18 35 33 45 2011 2012 2013 2014 29.4 24.2 23.1 25.0 34.2 1-1 176.0 18-7 201.2 15-10 104.0 6-5 8.1 8.6 8.9 9.0 1.81 1.36 1.25 1.29 Capuano is currently a free agent. Prior to signing Ubaldo Jimenez I’d heard rumors that the Orioles were interested, but they’ve been rumored to be in on every semi-capable SP. Capuano isn’t a fantasy stud by any means, but he ranked 38th among SP in 2012 and he’s posted increasingly good FIPs every year since 2007 (he was out of the league in 2008, 2009, and 2010). Everything about Capuano will probably be average, and there’s no upside here. His value is probably the same -- low -- regardless of where he signs. Players with similar stat lines: Ryan Vogelsong; Ricky Nolasco; Miguel A. Gonzalez 1 0 0 0 40 180 198 114 1.04 1.32 1.31 1.38 3.12 3.78 3.97 3.40 2.88 3.49 3.28 3.79 2011 2012 2013 2014 33 33 24 31 .202 .251 .246 .235 .272 .321 .314 .304 11.5% 10.4% 7.4% 11.8% -4.52 2.54 1.75 -3.82 577 98 129 407 2011 2012 2013 2014 21.0 19.8 17.7 18.1 186.0 11-12 198.1 12-12 105.2 4-7 178.0 10-10 6.6 6.6 5.3 5.7 1.06 1.03 1.39 1.16 0 0 0 0 168 162 81 140 1.35 1.22 1.41 1.36 4.55 3.72 4.26 4.07 4.04 3.95 3.55 3.84 .266 .247 .289 .265 .311 .284 .334 .310 12.0% 11.1% 9.6% 9.2% -0.69 1.76 -3.97 -3.97 240 121 513 416 Hector Santiago | LAA | Age: 26 | Rk: 116 (410) Kyle Kendrick | PHI | Age: 29 | Rk: 119 (417) Position: SP/RP Position: SP Santiago makes the most sense in points leagues where you rack up value with Ks, but he’ll be a terrible contributor in WHIP. I enjoy using Santiago when I’ve already gotten a typical Clayton Kershaw start (I own the LAD ace) and I have some cushion in my rate stats, allowing me to enjoy the potential 7-8+ K day without worrying about how Santiago is going to kill my rate stats. Santiago did have better walk rates in the minors, so maybe he can harness some of the 3.50 BB/9 stuff and get his WHIP to 1.35. Players with similar stat lines: Bud Norris; Phil Hughes; Trevor Cahill Kendrick is an unspectacular, low-ceiling, high-floor, reliable innings-eater at the back of the Phillies rotation. Though his ERAs have jumped around a lot over the last 4 years (4.73, 3.22, 3.90, 4.70), his FIPs have shown a perennial downward trend while his GB% has shown a perennial upward trend. Kendrick is getting a little better each year, but not good enough to really make noise in fantasy leagues. I’ve got him on my watch list for when he finds himself in favorable matchups. Players with similar stat lines: Ricky Nolasco; Miguel A. Gonzalez; Ryan Vogelsong 2011 2012 2013 2014 2 42 34 31 5.1 70.1 149.0 174.0 0-0 4-1 4-9 11-7 0 4 0 0 2 79 137 165 0.38 1.34 1.40 1.43 0.00 3.33 3.56 4.17 2.84 4.70 4.44 4.02 2011 2012 2013 2014 34 37 30 29 2011 2012 2013 2014 11.1 25.8 20.9 21.4 5.6 13.1 11.0 10.5 2.25 0.92 0.84 0.82 .059 .208 .241 .237 .067 .259 .289 .294 0.0% 13.5% 9.2% 7.6% -6.04 -2.29 -2.31 -3.85 770 363 355 410 2011 2012 2013 2014 12.3 17.2 13.8 15.1 114.2 8-6 159.1 11-12 182.0 10-13 187.0 11-13 6.3 7.3 5.9 5.9 1.26 1.30 1.60 1.43 0 0 0 0 59 116 110 122 1.22 1.27 1.40 1.32 3.22 3.90 4.70 4.22 4.55 4.32 4.01 4.37 .249 .249 .277 .255 .261 .278 .306 .282 10.5% 11.4% 9.5% 11.4% -1.51 -0.21 -2.97 -3.98 289 218 420 417 Travis Wood | CHC | Age: 27 | Rk: 117 (414) Bud Norris | BAL | Age: 29 | Rk: 120 (419) Position: SP Position: SP From 46th among SP to 117th, I want no part of Wood. Like Mike Leake, Wood rode shotgun with Lady Luck last year to a .248 BABIP and 6.9% HR/FB rate. His 4.50 FIP was more representative of his true performance and not his actual 3.11 ERA. If he struggles as much as we expect, Wood might not even make it to 190 IP, meaning he would fall even further in our rankings. At least Wood keeps the ball down...wait, nope. He’s primarily a fly ball pitcher. Nothing to see here. Players with similar stat lines: Ricky Nolasco; Scott Feldman; Paul Maholm Always good for 160-180 innings of near K/IP ball, Norris disappointed last year in his first season with the Orioles. I think he gains back some of the Ks, though not all of them, while providing a reliable low-4.00s ERA and a kills-your-team 1.40+ WHIP. Norris has always been incredibly hittable, and that doesn’t appear to be changing any time soon. He’s a bargain basement source of Ks, but just about everything else will hurt your team. Players with similar stat lines: Hector Santiago; Mark Buehrle; Edwin Jackson 2011 2012 2013 2014 22 26 32 32 106.0 156.0 200.0 190.0 6-6 6-13 9-12 8-10 0 0 0 0 76 119 144 143 1.49 1.20 1.15 1.28 4.84 4.27 3.11 4.18 4.06 4.84 3.89 4.10 2011 2012 2013 2014 31 29 32 31 2011 2012 2013 2014 16.4 18.3 17.5 17.5 8.6 8.3 8.0 8.0 0.71 0.78 0.75 0.73 .282 .227 .218 .233 .324 .244 .248 .268 6.7% 12.7% 6.9% 7.3% -3.99 -1.22 1.60 -3.92 526 281 136 414 2011 2012 2013 2014 22.1 22.5 19.0 20.1 186.0 6-11 168.1 7-13 176.2 10-12 182.0 11-13 8.8 9.0 8.7 8.8 1.01 0.99 1.05 1.00 0 0 0 0 176 165 147 162 1.33 1.37 1.49 1.42 3.77 4.65 4.18 4.17 4.02 4.23 3.86 4.21 .246 .250 .280 .251 .294 .301 .333 .300 11.7% 12.0% 8.1% 10.0% -0.59 -1.75 -2.07 -4.00 231 320 347 419 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook 106 | Baseball Professor Mark Buehrle | TOR | Age: 35 | Rk: 121 (420) Jenrry Mejia | NYM | Age: 24 | Rk: 124 (432) Position: SP Position: SP It might be unfair to put Buehrle down at 121 among SP after finishing last year ranked 89th among SP. He has thrown at least 200 IP in every single year of his career (minus his 1st season) and he’s almost always had an ERA in the 3.75-4.25 range. Interestingly, Buehrle posted the 2nd best K% of his career last season (15.9%), but it’s still too little too late for an aging veteran who does just enough to keep having real-life value. His fantasy value -- if he ever really had any -- disappeared years ago (OK, 2012 aside). Players with similar stat lines: Trevor Cahill; Bud Norris; Edwin Jackson 2011 2012 2013 2014 31 31 33 33 2011 2012 2013 2014 12.7 15.1 15.9 15.5 205.1 13-9 202.1 13-13 203.2 12-10 203.0 12-11 5.2 4.8 5.8 5.5 1.27 1.14 1.33 1.23 The Mets have 4 of their starting rotation spots locked up, and I think Mejia gets the other one. He probably won’t hold it all year (we only projected 132 IP), but his ERA and K rate will be decent. Mejia is young but he’s been in the Mets system since 2008, and he really impressed in 27.1 IP with the club last season -2.30 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 2.31 xFIP. His control has bounced around, but he flashed elite walk rates in his cup of coffee in 2013, and there’s definitely enough upside here to give Mejia a look late. Players with similar stat lines: Brett Oberholtzer; Paul Maholm; Lance Lynn 0 0 0 0 109 125 139 138 1.30 1.17 1.35 1.37 3.59 3.74 4.15 4.11 3.98 4.18 4.10 3.94 2011 2012 2013 2014 .273 .251 .273 .267 .294 .270 .305 .304 8.6% 11.4% 10.6% 8.4% 0.20 1.66 -0.89 -4.06 189 127 259 420 2011 2012 10.8 2013 24.1 2014 18.8 5 5 22 16.0 27.1 132.0 1-2 1-2 7-8 0 0 0 8 27 108 1.81 1.17 1.34 5.63 2.30 3.87 5.41 2.46 3.92 12.2 3.6 7.3 3.08 2.94 1.93 .308 .259 .247 .327 .329 .292 16.7% 12.5% 12.2% -6.54 -4.52 -4.25 833 584 432 Ryan Vogelsong | SF | Age: 36 | Rk: 122 (422) Edwin Jackson | CHC | Age: 30 | Rk: 125 (436) Position: SP Position: SP Vogelsong stumbled to a 5.93 ERA last year, but don’t forget how surprisingly valuable he was in 2011 and 2012 (28th and 32nd among SP). I’m not ready to close the book entirely, though we’re definitely on the last few pages. He’s a low-upside option, but he has a very favorable home park and a recent history of success (albeit success fueled by a little luck). Keep in mind that at 120+ SP deep, we’re onto the 5th starters for most teams, so there’s not a ton of quality left. Jackson has been average for so long, but now he’s finally become below average. His 1.40+ WHIP tanks any value he has, and you really only use Jackson when he’s the only name you recognize on free agency or you’re trying to lose the week (sarcasm, but he’s really not very helpful). He can provide decent K totals in H2H leagues where you’re already up (or down) but a good margin in the rate stats, but I honestly don’t see any other use for him. Players with similar stat lines: Chris Capuano; Ricky Nolasco; Kyle Kendrick 2011 2012 2013 2014 30 31 19 30 2011 2012 2013 2014 18.5 20.1 14.4 18.0 179.2 13-7 189.2 14-9 103.2 4-6 177.0 10-12 8.1 7.9 8.1 8.2 1.34 1.14 1.28 1.19 Players with similar stat lines: Bud Norris; Mark Buehrle; Chris Capuano 0 0 0 0 139 158 67 139 1.25 1.23 1.56 1.36 2.71 3.37 5.73 4.18 3.67 3.70 4.91 3.76 2011 2012 2013 2014 32 31 31 32 .239 .238 .293 .244 .280 .284 .320 .291 8.2% 8.2% 13.4% 7.1% 2.29 2.51 -5.88 -4.07 92 100 773 422 2011 2012 2013 2014 17.2 21.3 17.4 18.8 199.2 12-9 189.2 10-11 175.1 8-18 181.0 10-13 7.2 7.3 7.6 7.6 1.40 1.32 1.81 1.61 0 0 0 0 148 168 135 150 1.44 1.22 1.46 1.41 3.79 4.03 4.98 4.07 3.55 3.85 3.79 3.91 .282 .237 .276 .260 .330 .278 .322 .309 8.2% 11.7% 9.9% 10.8% -0.59 0.95 -3.61 -4.30 232 160 486 436 Yordano Ventura | KC | Age: 23 | Rk: 123 (424) Yusmeiro Petit | SF | Age: 29 | Rk: 126 (438) Position: SP Position: SP/RP If you’re looking for upside late, you found it. I would take Ventura above almost everyone outside the top 80 or 100, but these rankings are based on projected end-of-season stats and not draft value. It’s up to you to apply these rankings, write-ups, statistics to your own league. As much as I love Ventura, and he has a ton of potential in a similar mold to what Danny Salazar had last year, I think Danny Duffy will hold the 5th rotation slot long enough to hurt Ventura’s value. Look for him late in the year, especially in H2H leagues. Players with similar stat lines: Yusmeiro Petit; Josh Collmenter; Carlos Villanueva 2011 2012 2013 2014 3 14 2011 2012 2013 17.2 2014 22.7 Despite the flashes we saw last year, and nothing flashed brighter than Petit coming within 1 strike of a perfect game, it looks like he’ll end up being a long reliever out of the bullpen. Vogelsong isn’t the most reliable rotation arms so should a spot open up we’ll get a chance to see if Petit was more than just a brief storyline, but there’s absolutely no way you care about him come draft day unless you’re in a deep NL-only league. Players with similar stat lines: Yordano Ventura; Josh Collmenter; Carlos Villanueva 15.1 79.0 0-1 5-3 0 0 11 77 1.24 1.29 3.52 3.43 5.33 3.91 2011 2012 2013 2014 9.4 8.3 1.35 1.44 .224 .228 .227 .280 17.6% 12.0% -6.80 -4.08 976 424 2011 2012 4.6 2013 24.0 2014 21.6 1 8 37 4.2 48.0 88.0 0-0 4-1 4-6 0 0 0 1 47 82 2.36 1.19 1.28 3.86 3.56 3.37 5.24 2.86 4.30 18.2 5.6 5.5 1.00 0.68 0.67 .389 .249 .258 .412 .313 .300 0.0% 6.7% 12.7% -6.91 -3.53 -4.32 922 480 438 @BaseballProfwww.baseballprof.com Facebook