Global Fuel Economy Initiative: Chile Case Study

Transcripción

Global Fuel Economy Initiative: Chile
Case Study
Chile Case Study
Global Fuel Economy Initiative
Gianni López
Centro Mario Molina Chile
Global vehicle fleet
IEA
• Is a private institution created under the sponsorship of
Nobel Prize Professor Mario Molina;
• His mission is to create capacities in South America to
address the problem of air quality and climate change;
• Is a R&D Center under CORFO Law for the promotion of
private investments in R&D;
• Is dedicated to research and studies in air pollution and
energy in South America;
• Rise funds from private companies, governments and
international institutions;
• Works in close relation with universities and research
centers in USA, Norway, Sweden and Demark.
• Has agreements with UNEP to implement Global
Regional Programs inLatin American Region:
• Partnership for Clean Fuels&Vehicles
• Global Fuel Economy Initiative
• Cimate and Clean Air Coalition
Chile:
- 16 millions inhabitants,
- 80% living in cities,
- Santiago most
populated (6 millions)
- 3,6 millions of vehicles
- 320.000 vehicles sales
per year (2012)
- 17.000 US$ average
annual income
Vehicle fleet growth impact in Chile
• Energy risk increase (100% petroleum imported),
• Air pollution problems in Santiago and others big cities,
• Transports is responsible of 30% of national emissions of CO2.
Light and Medium Duty Vehicles Fleet in Santiago
Metropolitan Region
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
World oil prices in three cases, 1990-2035
(2009 dollars per barrel) U.S. Energy Information Administration
Possible future sceneries for gasoline in Chile
+ Price
High demand + high prices:
- High probability
-Strong impact in national economy
- Political pressure for long term subsidies
- Demand
Short time subsidies/fuel tax discount
Better vehicle
technology
Less demand + Low prices:
- Low probability
High demand + low prices:
- Medium/Low probability
- Strong increment of CO2 emission
- Impact in local air quality
- Price
+ Demand
Less demand + high prices:
- Low probability in BAU situation
[gr CO2/km]
Corporative CO2 Average 2012 – Top players chilean car market
250
Toyota
Ford
Chery
Mazda
Nissan
200
191
175
168
174
164
158
178
Norma EU 2015
163
157
150
142
Suzuki
Kia
Hyundai
Chevrolet
Norma EU 2021
Peugeot
100
50
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
GVW [kgs]
NOx Emissions from light and medium duty vehicles in Santiago
Metropolitan Region
12000
NOx annual emissions [ton]
Nuevos
Comercial Diesel Euro III y IV
10000
Comercial Diesel Euro I y II
Comercial Gasolina
8000
Liviano Diésel - Euro III/IV 2005 - 2007
Liviano Gasolina Euro III 2005 - 2007
6000
Taxis
Liviano Gasolina - Euro I/II
Liviano Gasolina - sin catalizador
4000
2000
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
First GFEI case study: Chile
• Started in 2010
• Focus on:
– Fuel Economy (FE) and emission baseline of vehicle market,
– FE labelling,
– FE and low emission vehicle policy proposal
• Expanding now to Peru, Uruguay and Paraguay
Capacities in Chile
•
•
•
•
Strong institutions for enforcement of vehicle standards,
importation of second hand cars is banned,
Good fuel quality,
Mature system for type approval and conformity of production
of vehicle market,
• Vehicle model emissions and FE data available,
• Sales data available.
First Step: Characterization of Vehicle market
CO2/ FE Car Market
Follow Up Official
report presented on
September 2010
in a conference with
Transport Vice
Minister and John
German from ICCT
Light duty
Commercial
N1 C II
M1
N1 C I
N1 C III
100%
90%
20%
25%
27%
80%
28%
31%
30%
240% sales increase in 5 years
70%
60%
Comerciales
50%
40%
Livianos
80%
75%
73%
72%
69%
70%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Oct/10
30%
20%
10%
0%
N2
Market average NOx emission comparison
23 times
Comments
• Vehicle market presents segments with different emissions,
• Light duty trucks and SUVs vehicles are taking more market share,
• Light duty trucks and SUVs diesel vehicles have high emissions of NOx
and PM,
• Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are high in comparison with
international information.
Second Step: Fuel Economy Labeling
• Different format depending on nationals negotiations with car
manufactures:
– Only absolute information, without references to the rest of the
market,
– Running cost included
– Relative, considering comparison with other car model.
• Different link with incentives policies:
– In some cases labeling information used for tax o feebate systems.
Labeling in Europe at 2010
ICCT
Labeling in Europe at 2010
ICCT
FE Labeling in Chile
• Agreement between Ministries of Transport, Environment and
Energy with Association of car manufactures/importers on
December of 2010,
FE Labeling in Chile
• Voluntary until January 2012, then mandatory.
• Based on NEDC information from emission type approval
process.
• Official decree of Transport Ministry says that any vehicle in a
car dealer show room must exhibit the label.
• Applies for light duty vehicles.
• It´s the only one mandatory labeling system in LAC.
Third Step: Proposal of a First Fuel Economy Policy
for Chilean Vehicle Market
• Labeling is not enough;
• For example, a study of ADAC in Europe shows that running
cost are important (more than environmental performance),
but less than:
– Reliability of the car, comfort, vehicle type and price.
• It´s important to link labeling with FE incentives policies.
New consumer discounting is fixable
• CO2 or fuel consumption standards
• Feebates: Pay manufactures and consumers up front for value
of the fuel savings compare to benchmark, punishing vehicles
with low energy efficiency.
• CO2 Tax: half feebate system, that punish vehicles with low
energy efficiency.
Took from John German, ICCT
Feebate system
Fee = Slope x (Vehicle CO2 – Benchmark CO2)
Fee
Slope define marginal
cost and benefits
Pivot point or
benchmark
Vehicle receive rebate
Vehicle subject to fee
CO2 emission
Impact of Bonus/malus systems in vehicle market
Mandatory date
Feebate proposal for Chile
The proposal is based on French Bonus/malus
system, but including CO2 and local pollutants.
The objective is to promote more clean and efficient
vehicles to reduce air pollution problems in big cities
and to reduce national energy risk.
General Design
Vehicle price
Environmental
and energy
correction
Price correction due to Air Pollution
- Rebate for vehicles that meet low
emissions standards;
- Fee for vehicle that meet less restrictive
emissions standards.
Price correction due to Energy Risk
-Rebate for vehicles with high fuel economy,
based on FE labeling;
-Fee for less efficient vehicles, based on
FE Labeling.
Price correction due to Air Pollution
NOx
Categoría
Cero emisión
6
Nox ≤ 0,1
0,1 ˂ NOx ≤ 0,2
0,2 ˂ NOx ≤ 0,3
0,3 ˂ NOx ≤ 0,5
0,5 ˂ NOx ≤ 0,8
5
4
3
2
1
Tipo
Norma
M1 Gasolina
EURO V / VI
M1 Diesel
EURO VI
N1 Diesel Class I
EURO VI
N1 Gasolina Class I
EURO V / VI
N1 Gasolina Class II
EURO V / VI
N1 Gasolina Class III
EURO V / VI
N2 Gasolina
EURO V / VI
M1 Gasolina
EURO IV
M1 Diesel
EURO V
N1 Gasolina Class I
EURO IV
EURO IV
EURO IV
N1 Diesel Class I
EURO V
N1 Diesel Class II
EURO VI
N1 Diesel Class III
EURO VI
N2 Gasolina
EURO IV
N2 Diesel
EURO VI
M1 Gasolina
EURO III
M1 Diesel
EURO IV
N1 Gasolina Class I
EURO III
EURO III
N1 Diesel Class I
EURO IV
N1 Diesel Class II
EURO V
N1 Diesel Class III
EURO V
N2 Diesel
EURO V
M1 Diesel
EURO III
EURO III
N1 Diesel Class I
EURO III
N1 Diesel Class II
EURO IV
N1 Diesel Class III
EURO IV
N1 Diesel Class II
EURO III
N1 Diesel Class III
EURO III
Incentivo
US$
Desincentivo US$
1000
0
500
0
0
0
0
500
0
1000
0
Chile market share for feebate class
1500
Centro
Mario Molina Chile
For EURO vehicles
Price correction due to Energy Risk
Environmental and
energy price
correction for car
model i [Chilean $]
Footprint
Price correction due to Energy Risk [Chilean $]
1 US$= 500 Chilean $
grs CO2/km
For a vehicle with a footprint equal to market average
Methodology for economic evaluation
2010 model database
Possible improvements
In FE
Price corrections for year i
System adjustments
Fiscal balance per year i
Vehicle demand per year i
Escenario 2010
Segmento
Corrección de
precio
Norma
Grs CO2/km
Rio JB 1,4 DOHC Sedan 4P. T/M Motor Otto
EUROIV
181
$
142,896
Accent MC 1,4 DOHC Sedan 4P. T/M Motor Otto
EUROIV
178
$
102,687
Aveo LT NB AC 1,4 DOHC Sedan 4P. T/M Motor Otto
Yaris 1,5 DOHC Sedan 4P. T/M Motor Otto
Accent MC 1,6 DOHC Sedan 4P. T/M Motor Otto
Station 10 a 20 millones de $
Explorer II XLT 4,0 SOHC V6 Station Wagon 5P. 4x4 T/A Motor Otto
EUROIV
EUROIV
Tier 2 Bin5
197
154
178
$
$
$
334,371
-190,420
-123,970
EUROV
375
$
1,652,055
Captiva LT SU 2,0 SOHC Station Wagon 5P. AWD T/A Motor Diesel
CX-9 3,7 DOHC Wagon 5P. 4x4 T/A Motor Otto
Impreza 2,0 R DOHC Wagon 5P. AWD T/A Motor Otto
Pick up 7 a 10 millones
Terrano D22 2,5 Look 4x4 Turbo DOHC Cabina Doble 4P. T/M Motor
Diesel
L200 Dakar CRS 2.5 CRDI 16v DOHC Pick Up D/C 4P. 4x4 T/M Motor
Diesel
EUROV
EURO IV
EUROV
225
437
194
$
$
$
116,257
2,163,758
-66,518
EUROIV
215
$
583,379
EUROIV
244
$
844,106
Actyon Sport 2,0 DOHC Pick Up 4P. 4x4 T/M Motor Diesel
S-10 2.4 Lts., OHC 2WD Pick Up Doble Cabina 4P. T/M, Motor Otto
Terrano D22 2,5 Turbo DOHC Cabina Doble Pick Up 4P. 4x2 T/M Motor
Diesel
EUROV
EUROV
199
381
$
$
18,100
2,129,682
EUROIV
181
$
207,321
Sedanes 5 a 7 millones de $
Price corrections at fifth year
Sedá n
Precio [MM$]
3a 5
-$
5a 7
Correcci on
Preci o
-$
7 a 10
Correcci on
Preci o
-$
10 a 20
312.219
Correcci on
Preci o
-$
20 +
235.090
434.537
Correcci on
Preci o
-$
321.625
s tation
ha tchba ck
Correcci on
% del va l or
Preci o
vehícul o
134.262
% del va l or Correcci on
vehícul o
Preci o
-4% -$
235.967
Pi ck up
-4%
% del va l or
vehícul o
-4%
vehícul o
Preci o
vehícul o
Preci o
vehícul o
Preci o
-4% -$
-6% -$
-1% $
479.456
64.376
254.067
vehícul o
Preci o
vehícul o
Preci o
vehícul o
Preci o
-4% -$
-4% $
3% $
% del va l or
vehícul o
-1%
422.705
340.360
Correcci on
Preci o
$
306.324
% del va l or
vehícul o
1%
55.877
% del va l or
vehícul o
3%
% del va l or
vehícul o
0%
Who pays / who wins
100%
Pick Up 10 a 20 MM$
Pick Up 7 a 10 MM$
Station W 10 a 20 MM$
Hatchback 10 a 20 MM$
Hatchback 5 a 7 MM$
Hatchback 3 a 5 MM$
Sedán ≥ 20 MM$
Sedán 10 a 20 MM$
Sedán 7 a 10 MM$
Sedán 5 a 7 MM$
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Market segments that receive rebates
100%
90%
Pick Up 10 a 20 MM$
80%
Pick Up 7 a 10 MM$
70%
Station W ≥ 20 MM$
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Hatchback 5 a 7 MM$
10%
Hatchback 3 a 5 MM$
0%
2010
Sedán ≥ 20 MM$
2011
2012
2013
Market segments that pay fees
2014
Fiscal Balance [US$]
Expenses
Incomes
Designed to be neutral in five years
Impact on total car sales
BAU
With feebate
Benefits
Benefits
• US$ 200 millions annual saves in less petroleum importation at
fifth year ,
• 833.000 CO2 tons in annual emission reductions at fifth year,
• At same date, the owner of a medium size sedan/hatchback
saves 260 US$ per year due to less consumption of gasoline.
Official Consequence : First Tax for emission and
fuel consumption tax Chilean vehicle market
• On last September, the Chilean Congress approved the most important
tax reform in the last 30 years, including environmental tax for the first
time.
• Tax for LDV [UTM] = [Tax for fuel consumption + Tax for NOx emission] x
Vehicle Price factor
Where:
Tax for fuel consumption= 35/fuel economy in urban phase of NEDC [km/lt]
Tax for NOx emission= 120 x NOx emission in NEDC [gr/km]
Vehicle Price Factor= Vehicle price [Chilean $] x 0,00000006
1 UTM = 84 [US$]
Fuel Consumption and NOx Emission Tax [US$] (non oficial calculation)
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
Toyota Hilux 2,5 Diesel
Toyota Corolla 1,6
Suzuki Grand Nomade 2,4
Suzuki Celerio 1,0
Suzuki Alto 1,0
R. Samsung SM3 1,6
Peugeot 308 1,6 Diesel
Peugeot 2008 1,6 Diesel
Peugeot 2008 1,2
Nissan Terrano 2,5 Diesel
Mitsubishi L200 2,5 Diesel
Mahindra 2,2 Diesel
Kia Rio 1,4
Jac J3 1,3
Hyundai Accent 1,4
Chevrolet Spark 1,2
Chevrolet Spark 1,0
Chevrolet Sonic 1,6
Chevrolet Sail 1,4
NOx Emission tax [US$]
Fuel Consumption Tax [US$]
Fuel Consumption Tax (Chilean Pesos)
200,000
y = -23196x + 338628
R² = 0.6642
150,000
100,000
Impuesto Consumo
Linear (Impuesto Consumo)
50,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-50,000
14
16
Fuel Economy [km/lt]
Tax Impact
• The tax weight heavily the NOx emission, affecting the diesel
vehicles dramatically in comparison with gasoline vehicles.
• The heavy taxation for diesel corresponds to the less
restringing NOx limits for diesel vehicles inside the Euro
standards in relation with gasoline (Chile now is Euro 5).
• Tax for fuel consumption and Labeling are promoting a strong
attention on fuel economy. A national fuel economy standard
will be in discussion during next year.
Lessons learned
• All success in the steps to a national policy on fuel economy is
based on the existing institutional capacities for the control of
emission standards for vehicle market;
• Car manufactures and dealers are the most critical barriel for
the introduction of advanced and efficient policies. The
position of the big manufactures in developed countries are
not reflected on developing countries market.
Next steps and NAMAs options
• Fuel Economy standard for LDV and MDV;
• Incentives for the turn over of specific fleets (taxis)
Program to turn over taxi fleet
• Existen 100.926 taxis básicos y colectivos en el país.
• Los modelos presentes en la flota son de tecnología antigua.
• La oferta de vehículos nuevos no es de alto rendimiento.
Program to turn over taxi fleet
Penetración de tecnologías
100%
Rendimiento Promedio Flota Taxis Colectivos [km/lt]
90%
25.00
80%
20.00
60%
EV
Euro 5 HEV
50%
Axis Title
70%
15.00
10.00
Convencional avanzado
40%
Convencional
5.00
30%
20%
10%
0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Escenario con
programa
Escenario base
Rentabilidad social del programa
Periodo 2014-2022
• El programa permite la renovación de 21.611 taxis colectivos
con tecnologías avanzada, el 40% de ellos híbridos o eléctricos.
• El VPN del proyecto es de 138 millones de dólares en los 9
años.
• El beneficio sólo en reducción de consumo de combustibles es
de 171 millones de US$.
• El programa se puede ampliar a taxis básicos mediante una
NAMA que considere el aporte del Estado chileno como
cofinanciamiento.
Thanks
[email protected]
www.cmmolina.cl
www.50by50campaign.org

Global Fuel Economy Initiative: Chile Case Study

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