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Asuntos de Gobernabilidad y Corrupcion en
America Latina (incluyendo Chile) en un marco
empirico comparativo
Daniel Kaufmann, Natural Resource Governance
Institute (NRGI)
Presentacion en el Foro "Corrupción en Chile y
America Latina los desafíos pendientes“
organizado por Espacio Publico y UAI,
UAI Campus, Santiago, 6 de Octubre
1
Perspectiva sobre ‘escandalos’
• America Latina y Chile: Logros, no solo desafios…
• Escandalos como estudios de caso de las distintas
manifestaciones de corrupcion, y de como su
sofisticacion ha cambiado
• Antes: transaccion de coima tradicional entre 2
• Hoy en dia: Importancia de ‘Networks’ (Redes) de
corrupcion, nacionales e internacionales, y de ‘Captura
del Estado’…
• Corrupcion como sintoma de debilidad institucional,
necesidad de estudiar esquema amplio de
gobernabilidad
2
La Red de Corrupcion en Peru durante el
caso de Montesinos/Fujimori
Judiciary
Civil Society
International
Political Parties
Legislative
Branch
Alberto
Fujimori
1
State
(Bureaucracy)
Vladimiro
Montesinos
Media
Private
Sector
Municipal
Government
Source: “Robust Web of Corruption: Peru’s Intelligence Chief Vladimiro Montesinos,” Kennedy
School of Government Case Program, Case C14-04-1722.0, based on research by Professor Luis
Moreno Ocampo; Peru: Resource Dependency Network, 2000
Military
3
Casos de Corrupción en America Latina (selectivos, recientes)
• Caso FIFA
– Basics: Chuck Blazer and other FIFA officials from CONCACAF and CONMEBOL
received bribes and colluded with sports marketing executives
– Corruption: Bribery of an unspecified amount in exchange for lucrative
contracts and influencing votes
– Consequences: U.S. has indicted 14 individuals, 13 of them arrested
• Brazil: Caso Petrobras
– Basics: Roberto Costa and other former Petrobras executives colluded with
construction companies to inflate contracts signed with Petrobras
– Corruption: Collusion network of money laundering and bribery of over $2
billion, illicit campaign financing
– Consequences: Several executives and high ranking officials have been
arrested or are under investigation, former President Lula also questioned
• Brazil: Caso World Cup (“White Elephants”) Construction
– Basics: Firms have inflated the costs of World Cup construction with many
stadiums likely to go unused
– Corruption: Procurement fraud and price gouging of unspecified amount
4
– Consequences: It could take years for official audits to be finalized and judged
Source: AFP, http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/sports/06/02/15/look-key-players-fifa-scandal
Brazil: Petrobras
Source: Ministerio Publico Federal, http://pt.slideshare.net/arykara7002/fluxograma-do-dinheiro-da
Casos de Corrupción en America Latina (selectivos, recientes)
• Chile: Caso Caval
– Basics: Sebastian Davalos used political connections for loan in 2015 to
purchase real estate
– Corruption: Influence peddling to receive $10m loan, made $5m profit
– Consequences: Investigations have been hindered, with an extension being
blocked by President’s allies.
• Chile: Caso Pentagate
– Basics: Tax official Ivan Alvarez gave fraudulent tax refunds; officials received
political donations from Penta Group
– Corruption: Collusion network of tax fraud, money laundering, and illicit
campaign financing
– Consequences: Arrests were made and an advisory council appointed, but
reforms have made little progress
• Colombia: Caso Fidupetrol
– Basics: Judge Jorge Pretelt solicited bribe in 2015 to influence ruling in case
involving Fidupetrol
– Corruption: Bribery of $210,000 to influence ruling
7
– Consequences: Pretelt has stepped down as investigation continues
Casos de Corrupción en America Latina (selectivos, recientes)
• Mexico: Caso Casa La Palma
– Basics: First Lady Angelica Rivera bought mansion in 2012 from construction
company Grupo Higa, which allegedly got lucrative government contracts
– Corruption: Bribery of unspecified amount in the awarding of public contracts
– Consequences: The President and First Lady have been cleared of all charges
• Mexico: Caso Iguala Mass Kidnapping
– Basics: Iguala Mayor Velazquez and wife behind 2014 abduction and killing of
43 students who were handed over to local crime syndicate by corrupt police
– Corruption: Collusion between government and police forces with organized
crime networks
– Consequences: Those involved were arrested and a new anti-crime plan was
put in place following mass protests
• Argentina: Caso Boudougate
– Basics: Vice President Boudou saved printing company Ciccone Calcografica in
2010 and profited from the company’s government contracts
– Corruption: Influence peddling and illicit public procurement worth $170
million
8
– Consequences: Investigation is still ongoing, but Boudou remains in office
Casos de Corrupción en America Latina (selectivos, recientes)
• Panama: Caso National Assistance Program
– Basics: Officials in former President Ricardo Martinelli’s administration
inflated contracts of Panama’s National Assistance Program from 2009-2014
– Corruption: Price gouging of procurement contracts in exchange for bribes
– Consequences: Several officials have been arrested and Martinelli was
stripped of his immunity, but is believed to be hiding abroad
• Panama: Caso Martinelli Megaprojects
– Basics: Former President Ricardo Martinelli received a cut from several of the
“megaprojects” he pushed
– Corruption: Bribery of an unspecified amount in public procurement contracts
– Consequences: Several officials have been arrested and Martinelli was
stripped of his immunity, but is believed to be hiding abroad
• Guatemala: Caso La Linea
– Basics: Juan Carlos Monzon, secretary of the Vice President headed a fraud
network, undercharging import customs duties in exchange for kickbacks
– Corruption: Collusion network to avoid tax payments of unspecified amount
– Consequences: President Molinas has resigned and is on trial for his alleged
9
involvement
Casos de Corrupción en America Latina (selectivos, recientes)
• Peru: Caso Nadine Hereria
– Basics: First Lady Nadine Hereria accused of money laundering funds from
Venezuelan companies to finance her husband’s 2011 election campaign.
– Corruption: Money laundering and illicit campaign financing of $250,000
– Consequences: Investigations are ongoing
• Venezuela: Caso Ferrominera
– Basics: State-owned Ferrominera sold ore to intermediaries below value in
exchange for kickbacks
– Corruption: Bribery resulting in $1.2 billion in ore sold at a fraction of real
value
– Consequences: Chairman of Ferrominera Radwan Sabbagh and businessman
Yamal Mustafa have been arrested.
10
Bribery vs. State Capture, 2004
% Firms report ‘corruption’
% Firms report 'corruption'
100
Nordic Countries
80
G-7
60
East Asia
'Tigers' (NICs)
Latin America
40
20
United States
0
Corporate Bribery
Corporate
"Legal Corruption"
Source: Author’s calculations based on EOS 2004.
Corrupción: enfoque alternativo
• Corrupción como síntoma de un fracaso institucional
• Definición tradicional de corrupción: abuso del poder
publico para beneficio propio
• Lo tradicional ignoraba corrupción política/alto nivel, el
rol de las elites en el sector privado, y la ‘corrupción legal’
• Importancia de enfocarse en influencia indebida en las
reglas del juego, leyes, regulaciones y políticas publicas,
que conllevan a la “captura del estado”
• ‘Otra’ definición: “privatización de la política pública”
• Red de politicos, organizaciones, empresas y particulares que
coluden para beneficiarse del acceso al poder, a los recursos publicos
y formulacion de politicas, en detrimento del bien publico
• Captura de los partidos políticos mediante el financiamiento de sus
campañas
• Necesidad de esquema amplio de gobernabilidad
La Multi-Dimensionalidad de Gobernanza, y sus Indicadores
Gobernanza: conjunto de tradiciones e instituciones a través
de los cuales se ejercita la autoridad en un país -- específicamente:
• El proceso por el cual aquellos en autoridad son
seleccionados y remplazados
– VOZ Y RENDICIÓN DE CUENTAS
– ESTABILIDAD POLÍTICA & AUSENCIA DE VIOLENCIA/TERRORISMO
• La capacidad del gobierno para formular e implementar
políticas
– EFECTIVIDAD DEL GOBIERNO
– CALIDAD REGULATORIA
• Respeto de ciudadanos y el estado a instituciones que
gobiernan las interacciones entre ellos
– ESTADO DE DERECHO
– CONTROL DE LA CORRUPCIÓN
13
Datos de Gobernabilidad
• Datos de gobernabilidad de 30 fuentes diferentes
• Las fuentes de datos incluyen encuestas por países de
empresas, agencias de clasificación del riesgo comerciales,
think-tanks, agencias gubernamentales, agencias
internacionales, etc..
• Cientos de variables e indicadores sobre gobernabilidad
• Organizar estas medidas en los 6 componentes de
gobernabilidad, desde 1996 hasta hoy
• Metodo Estadistico avanzado de agregacion – U.C.M.
14
Fuentes de Datos de Gobernanza
• Cross-Country Surveys of Firms: Global Competitiveness
Survey, World Competitiveness Yearbook, BEEPS
• Cross-Country Surveys of Individuals: Gallup World Poll,
Global Corruption Barometer, Latinobarometro,
Afrobarometer
• Expert Assessments from Commercial Risk Rating Agencies:
Global Insight, Political Risk Services, BERI, Economist
Intelligence Unit, Merchant International Group, IJET Travel
Consultancy, Asia Risk Consultancy
• Expert Assessments from NGOs, Think Tanks: Reporters
Without Borders, Heritage Foundation, Freedom House,
Bertelsmann Foundation, Amnesty International, IREX,
Global Integrity, Binghamton University, International
Budget Project
• Expert Assessments from Governments, Multilaterals: World
Bank CPIA, EBRD, AFDB, ADB, State Department, OECD, IFAD
15
Indicadores Mundiales de Gobernabilidad (WGI):
Comparacion de America Latina con otras Regiones (2014)
Worldwide Governance Indicator Score
Good
2.25
1.75
1.25
0.75
0.25
-0.25
-0.75
-1.25
-1.75
Poor
OECD High Income - excl.
HI CEE
Emerging East Asia
Central/Eastern Europe
Latin America
Voice and Accountability
Government Effectiveness
Rule of Law
Control of Corruption
Source: Kaufmann, D., A. Krray and M. Mastruzzi “The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues”, data at http://www.govindicators.org,
author’s calculations. Theoretical range of indicators is from -2.5 to +2.5 (standard deviation units).
16
WGI Control de la Corrupcion: 2002-2014
Worldwide Governance Indicator Score
2.50
2002
2014
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
High Income
OECD
All Emerging
Countries
Emerging East Asia
Central/Eastern
Europe
Latin America
Note: From the WGI set of countries, ‘Emerging’ consists of 183 countries that are not high income developed OECD (but includes a few high income
emerging economies in East Asia and Central/Eastern European). ‘High Income OECD countries’ includes 24 countries, ‘Emerging East Asia’ countries
includes 10 countries, ‘Central/Eastern Europe’ includes 18 countries, and ‘Latin America’ includes 21 countries.
Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators (http://www.govindicators.org). Author’s calculations.
Control de corrupción en países de América Latina (WGI)
Good
2000
Control of Corruption Score, WGI
2.50
2014
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
Poor
Chile
Uruguay Costa Rica
Brazil
Colombia
Peru
Argentina Mexico
Paraguay Venezuela
18
Selected countries shown. Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators, www.govindicators.org . Author’s calculations
Worldwide Governance Indicator Z-Score
Control de la corrupción 2002 & 2014:
Ricos en RRNN vs No ricos en RRNN
1.25
0.75
0.25
-0.25
-0.75
-1.25
Non-Resource Rich avg
2002
Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators, www.govindicators.org
Resource Rich avg
2014
19
índice de presupuesto abierto: Algunos Países
100
Open Budget Index Score
2010
2012
2015
75
50
25
Ecuador
El
Salvador
Costa
Rica
Chile
Argentina Mexico
Peru
Brazil
20
Note: Chile’s rank in 2010 is 8 out of 94 and in 2015 is 27 out of 102.
Source: International Budget Partnership, 2015 Open Budget Index, http://internationalbudget.org/opening-budgets/open-budget-initiative/open-budget-survey/
El impacto de Gobernabilidad y
Control de la Corrupcion
22
El Dividendo de desarrollo de mejoras en gobernabilidad y control
de la corrupcion
45,000
Resource-Rich Countries
Non Resource Rich
GDP per capita (PPP)
30,820
12,712
10,272
6,851
10,000
3,941
5,000
0
Poor Corruption Control
Average Corruption
Control
Good Corruption
Control
Sources: GDP per capita (atop each column) from World Bank World Development Indicators, 2012.
Corruption Control data from Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI, 2012) Countries grouped into terciles based on WGI
23 Control
of Corruption scores. Resource Rich country classification according to IMF (2010).
Inequidad en América Latina
(data GINI más reciente)
60
GINI Coefficient
55
50
45
40
35
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
LatAm Non-RR
LatAm RR
LatAm
Emerging Non-RR
Emerging RR
Emerging
World
30
Calificaciones promedio en matemáticas en 2012
Program for International Student Assessment (PISA)
700
650
PISA Score
600
550
500
450
400
Source: 2012 OECD PISA http://www.oecd.org/pisa/
PISA is the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment. The latest in 2012 covered students from 65 countries and economies.
Peru
Indonesia
Colombia
Argentina
Brazil
Latin America avg
Mexico
Malaysia
Chile
Vietnam
East Asia avg
Japan
Macao Sar
Korea, Rep.
Taiwan
Hong Kong Sar
Singapore
300
Shanghai, China
350
Indicador de Innovacion: # de aplicaciones para patentes
800,000
Total Patent Applications
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
15,000
10,000
Source: World Intellectual Property Organization, total by applicant’s country of origin
Chile
Argentina
Mexico
Brazil
Israel
Korea, Rep.
Japan
China
0
United States
5,000
Budgetary Balance, 2006-2009
Are Budgetary Deficits in Industrialized Countries
Associated with Corruption?
Surplus
6
r = .6
CHL
4
HKG
2
KOR
0
-2
0.0
0.5
TUR
HRV
ITA
ESP
EST
1.0
1.5
ISR SVN
POL
BEL
CZESVK
JPN
-4
PRT
HUN
-6
FRA USA
DEu 2.0
AUT
FIN
DNK
SWE
NZL
CHE
SGP
LUX
AUS
CAN
NLD
Good
Control of
2.5Corruption
IRL
GBR
GRC
-8
Budget
Deficit
Control of Corruption, 2008
Graph from: D. Kaufmann, ‘Corruption and Budget Deficits in Industrialized Countries:’, Sources of Data for this graph: Control of Corruption,
2008 from the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI): Kaufmann, Kraay and Mastruzzi, “Governance Matters VIII” (2009). Higher value
means better Corruption Control. Budget Balance: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), average for budget balance for 2006-2009. A positive
(negative) value for budget balance depicts a budgetary surplus (deficit). Chart shows sample of 35 countries of the OECD and other high
income economies, except for oil-rich and small islands.
Sovereign Bond % Yield vs
Worldwide Governance Indicator Composite:
The ‘1,000 basis points dividend of good governance’…?
16
Egypt, Arab Rep.
r = -0.776
Uganda
14
2014 Sovereign Bond % Yield
Pakistan
Brazil
12
Kenya
10
Turkey
Russian Federation
India
Vietnam
Indonesia
8
South Africa
Colombia
Mexico
6
Romania
China
4
Philippines
Thailand
Chile
Croatia
New Zealand
Poland
Portugal
Slovenia
Korea,
Rep.
Israel
Lithuania
Italy
LatviaSpain
Malaysia
Bulgaria
Australia
IrelandKingdom Norway
United States
United
Singapore
Canada China
Hong
Sweden
France BelgiumKong SAR,
Czech Republic
Finland
AustriaNetherlands
Denmark
Taiwan, China
Germany
Switzerland
Japan
2
0
-1.50
Iceland
Botswana
Hungary
Greece
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2013 Worldwide Governance Indicator Score
Sovereign Bond % Yield is obtained from countries’ 10-year bonds as of April 21, 2014.
28
Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators, available at: www.govindicators.org and 10-Year Government Bond Spreads, available at: www.investing.com/ratesbonds/government-bond-spreads.
Índice Global de Competitividad: Algunos Países 2007-2015
2007
2015
6
5
4
Note: Chile’s rank in 2007 is 26 out of 131 and in 2015 is 35 out of 140.
Source: World Economic Forum, 2015-2016 Global Competitiveness Report, http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-competitiveness-report-2015-2016/
29
Switzerland
Singapore
United States
Germany
Netherlands
Japan
Hong Kong
Finland
Taiwan
Malaysia
Korea, Rep.
Israel
China
Estonia
Czech Republic
Thailand
Spain
Chile
Indonesia
Azerbaijan
Russia
Philippines
Panama
Costa Rica
Mexico
Colombia
Peru
Brazil
2
Argentina
3
Venezuela
Global Competitiveness Index
7
Índice Global de Competitividad: Chile 2007, 2015
2007
6
2015
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
Note: Chile’s rank in 2007 is 26 out of 131 and in 2015 is 35 out of 140.
Source: World Economic Forum, 2015-2016 Global Competitiveness Report, http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-competitiveness-report-2015-2016/
Innovation
Business
sophistication
Market size
Technological
readiness
Financial market
development
Labor market
efficiency
Goods market
efficiency
Higher education
and training
Health and primary
education
Macroeconomic
environment
Infrastructure
2
Institutions
2.5
GCI Composite
Global Competitiveness Index Score
6.5
30
Reflecciones para debate
1. Fortaleza de gobernabilidad de un pais: No es la ausencia
de corrupcion o escandalos, si no la capacidad de
reaccionar y reformarse cuando crisis
2. Reformas politicas son fundamentals (incentivos
3. Reformas y rol del Estado de Derecho es critica
4. Transparencia y Rendicion de Cuentas – involucracion y
presion ciudadana
5. Rol del sector privado: pendiente
6. Reformas anti-corrupcion al nivel municipal
7. Incentivos: importancia de integrar costos/beneficios
8. Interaccion entre los pilares claves de plan reforma
9. El entorno internacional: los mercados, OCDE, las
multinacionales, iniciativas como OGP (IGA), EITI
10. De la crisis a la Oportunidad: “El Momento es Hoy”...