Regime - Iranian Posture UPDATE

Posture of Syrian Regime and Allies: November 9, 2015
Tu r k e y
Z
Qamishli
Hasakah
Nubl / Zahraa
A
B
Aleppo
E
Idlib
Kuweires
C
D
Ar Raqqah
Fu’ah / Kefraya
4G
1F
Latakia 2
H
I Hama
J
7 K
3
Tartous L
Deir ez-Zor
Homs
A
I
R
S Y
5M
8
Iraq
T4 (Tiyas)
ba
no
n
N
9
O
Sayqal
Le
P
Q
R
U
V
KEY
Damascus
S T6
W
Quneitra
X
Y
As Suwayda
Deraa
Jo rd a n
Regime Positions
Regime Control
Besieged
Hezbollah Presence
Jabhat al-Nusra Control
Rebel Control
ISIS Control
ISIS, JN, Rebel Control
YPG (Syrian Kurds) Control
Isolated
Airbase
Foreign Positions
A B Iran and Proxies
1 2
Russia
10 mi
20 km
KNOWN IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS (IRGC) OR PROXY POSITION
A - Nubl and Zahraa
B - Bashkuy and Handarat
C - Neyrab Airbase / Aleppo Airport
D - As-Safira Defense Factories
E - Fu’ah and Kefraya
F - Latakia City
G - Joureen
H - Tel al-Nasiriyah
I - Qumhana
J - Hama Military Airport
K - Brigade 47 and Tel Qartal
L - Tartous City
M - Homs City
N - Qusayr
O - Yabroud
P - Zabadani
Q - Jamraya
R - Mezze District and Airbase
S - Sayyida Zeinab District
T - Damascus International Airport
U - Amal Farms
V - Nabi al-Fawwar
W - Sanamayn
X - Izraa
Y - Dera’a Municipal Stadium
Z - Qamishli Airport
KNOWN RUSSIAN POSITION
1 - Port of Latakia
2 - Bassel al-Assad Airport
3 - Tartous Naval Facility
4 - Slinfah
5 - Homs City
6 - Damascus International Airport
7 - Hama Military Airport
8 - Shayrat Airbase
9 - T4 (Tiyas) Airbase
Key Take-Away: Russia shifted military assets into eastern Homs Province, positioning at least five attack helicopters at the T4 (Tiyas) Airbase in eastern Homs
Province and additional rotary-wing aircraft at the Shayrat Airbase east of Homs City by November 4. These deployments position Russia to blunt an offensive
by ISIS against pro-regime forces south of Homs City that began after ISIS seized the village of Mahin on November 1, 2015. ISIS’s recent gains south of Homs
threaten the strategic regime-controlled M5 Highway connecting Damascus to Homs as well as the regime-held provincial capital of Homs City. ISIS may seek to
pressure Homs City in order to divert Russian and Iranian forces in Syria from their ongoing ground operations near Aleppo City. The advances in Homs have already driven an apparent shift in the Russian air campaign to expand the targeting of ISIS forces threatening core regime terrain as well as ISIS-held positions in
eastern Syria more broadly.
Russia has also forward-staged rotary-wing aircraft out of the Hama Military Airport in order to target rebel positions north of Hama City. Syrian rebels have been
pushing back regime forces in the northern countryside of Hama Province despite the start of Russian air support to the Syrian regime on September 30. Rebel
forces seized the strategic town of Morek on the border between Hama and Idlib Provinces on November 5. The redeployment of some rotary-wing aircraft to
Homs Province may limit the amount of firepower that Russia has available to respond to the rebel offensive in northern Hama Province as well as pressure from
ISIS southeast of Aleppo City.
The expansion of the Russian footprint in Homs and Hama Provinces positions Russia to further deepen its military involvement in the Syrian Civil War. The aggressive use of helicopter gunships to conduct reconnaissance-by-fire along active frontlines will provide Russia with valuable sources of additional intelligence
on potential targets for fixed-wing airstrikes. Over the long-term, the deployments to the two airbases in eastern Homs Province could also provide Russia with
new forward positions for an expanded air campaign against ISIS in far-eastern Syria or western Iraq. The forward-staging of Russian rotary-wing nonetheless
brings Russian personnel closer to direct contact with ISIS, raising the risk that ISIS could deliberately target these forces in order to punish Russia for its involvement in Syria.