Definition and early identification of droughts in Spain

Definition and early identification of droughts in Spain

Definition and early
identification of droughts in
Spain
Manuel Menéndez
Centro de Estudios Hidrográficos del CEDEX
Ministry of Public Works- Ministry of
Environment (Spain)
Drought and water deficiency: from research to policy making
Palermo, 8-9 October 2004
Contents
•
•
•
•
Introduction
Drought definition in Spain
Early identification of droughts
Decision Support Systems
Introduction
• Lack of a generally accepted definition
for droughts
• Terms Confusion: Aridity, Water
shortages, Water stress...
• Otherwise than floods, a drought is
difficult to characterise.
• No general agreement in the starting
and ending dates.
Percentile deficit of precipitation in Spain during 1990-95 drought
Percentile deficit of precipitation in Spain during 1990-95 drought
Source: CEDEX for White Paper on Water in Spain
Introduction
• Some impacts:
– Water supply restrictions (up to 30%) in cities as
Granada, Jaen, Sevilla, Málaga, Toledo.
– Irrigation restrictions in Guadalquivir and
Guadiana.
– Measures were implemented in 1992-93 as:
• New groundwater abstractions (i.e. Granada changes
from 100% surface water to 100% groundwater supply).
• Use of non conventional resources: Re-use (Benidorm),
Desalinisation plants (Murcia), Shipment Transport
(Cadiz)
• 1990-95 Drought was identified too late
Introduction
• Lack of a drought definition generally
accepted has consequences that go beyond
tha achademic interests:
– Emergency measures in Spain
– Derogations in Water Framework Directive
(Art.4.6) “Temporary deterioration in the status of
water shall not be in breach of the requirements of
this Directive if is the result of cirscuntances of
natural cause...in particular prolongued droughts.”
Droughts Identification (a posteriori)
APORTACIONES ANUALES (hm3)
Criterio valor umbral. Años de sequía en amarillo
APORTACIONES ANUALES (hm3)
Criterio valor acumulado. Años de sequía en amarillo
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
1948
1945
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
1948
1945
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
APORTACIONES ANUALES (hm3)
Medias móviles de orden 3. Años de sequía en amarillo
APORTACIONES ANUALES (hm3)
Criterio compuesto. Años de sequía en amarillo
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
1948
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
1948
1945
1945
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Early identification
• NAO Index
• Remote sensing
• Simple indicators
NAO Index
NAO Positive:
Cold and dry
winters in
Mediterraean
countries
Remote Sensing
Actual evapotranspiration (mm)
Source: EWBMS, 2001
Hydrological years:
1993/1994 (top)
1994/1995 (middle)
1995/1996 (botton)
Remote Sensing (Crops identification)
Optical
spectral
Biophysical
Information
Segmentation
Classification
Fuzzy logic Rules
based on
Leaf Area index,
Leaf angle,
Flower indice…
Remote Sensing (Leaf inclination)
True color view
LAI
0
4.9
30
Leaf Inclination (°)
65
Simple indicators
Use of Hydrological indicators at national scale
• Definition of key areas (units) in the catchment
for the generation of water resources.
• Selection of one indicator (or group) to describe
the water resources evolution in the unit
• Indicator data collection
• Development of maps for drought identification
at different time scales
• Maps to be available in Internet
Areas for drought identification
System of hydrologic indicators
Decision Support Systems
• Early identification is not enough.
• Decision Support Systems for:
– Droughts characterisation for design
– Water systems operation under risk
Decision Support Systems
• Operation of Water Systems under risk
is a key element
• Research from the Polytechnic
University of Valencia (Sánchez Quispe,
Andreu, Solera).
• Development of models that can made
a risk assessment in different water
resources and demands scenarios.
Water resources
Water demands distribution
Network : Infrastructures, abstraction points, etc
68
091 DT.Ordunte
46
45
6
71
091 DT.Zadorra
14
47
10
091 CR.Tru01
091 EE.Ebro
11
29
091 CR.Ebr01
091 EE.Eugui
091 EP.Ullivarri + (U)
28
091 DA.Pamplona
7
47
091 CR.Nel01
15
091 DR.Zadorra
091 DA.Vitoria
13
41
091 EE.Itoiz
23
66
48
091 CR.Ebr02
091 CR Zad01
091 CR.Arg01
091 EE.Alloz
091 CR.Ira01
4
3
33
20
091 CR.Sal01
44
15
8
57
16
34
091 DR.Tiron
091 CR.Tir01
091 DA.Logroño
6
65
54
56
55
091 DR.Najerilla
44
091 DR.Iregua
091 CR.Naj01
091 EE.Pajares (+GL)
17
56
33
091 DR.C.Lodosa y otros
37
091 EE.Mansilla
63
50
19
091 CR.Ire01
30
091 CR.Cid01
3
29
091 DR.C.Bardenas
74
40
58
10
71
7
37
091 EF.La Loteta
091 CR.Alh01
29
091 EE.Cigudos a
Nudo n.60
22
52
23
4
091 CR.Arb01
18
091 DR.C.Imperial
32
10
37
091 DR.Queiles
52
61
41
091 DA.CAC
091 CR.Flu01
60
13
091 DR.RAA-C.Cinca
51
8
66
091 DA.RAA
091 DR.Jalon bajo 091 DA.Zaragoza
16
8
12
091 CR.Alc02
64
32
091 CR.Ebr09
42
21
68
091 CR.Agv01
091 EE.La Tranquera
13
091 CR.Ebr12
091 DA.Resto Eje Ebro+Fut
12
39
091 DR.Ebro (Segre-Cherta)
091 EP.Ribarroja
28
43
091 EE.Ciurana
8
70
091 CR.Ebr13
091 CR.Jil01
31
091 CR.Ebr11
091 CR.Ebr10
091 CR.Pie01
091 DA.Resto Segre+Cinca
27
091 CR.Seg04
091 DR.Aguas Vivas
45
14
091 EP.Mequinenza 49
18
091 DR.Ebro (Gal-Seg)+Fut
091 DR.Jalon alto
16
091 DR.Segre bajo+Fut
091 CR.Seg03
091 CR.Cin03
091 CR.J al02
61
9
5
7
41
091 DR.Cinca+Fut
091 CR.Jal01
27
091 DR.C.A.Urgel
43
1
091 DA.Lleida
38
1
51
69
53
091 DR.Jiloca
19
091 DR.Martin
54
091 CR.Mar01
091 DI.Escatron
5
50
091 EE.CaspeII
6
49
1
69
091 DT.Riudecañas
091 DI.Asco
091 DI.Andorra
9
63
091 CR.Ciu01
18
091 DR.Guadalope bajo
40
091 EF.Lechago
091 EE.Cueva Foradada
17
26 091 DR.Matarraña
091 CR.Glp01
48
091 DR.Guadalope alto y medio5 091 EF.Calanda (+S rec)
55
70
091 CR.Mat01
091 CR.Ebr14
091 EF.Torre del Compte
19
4
34
35
33
25
2
091 Cherta
091 CR.Ebr15
72
3
091 DA.Delta+resto
Main Input: Water stocks in aquifers and reservoirs, flows in
rivers , abstractions .
76
30 091 DR.C.Delta (reg.inv.)
31 091 DR.C.Delta+Fut
67
Main Output: System fail probability
091 DR.C.P.Urgel+Segre
091 DR.CAC alto y Es era
091 DR.Flumen y Alcanadre
17
35
091 CR.Seg02
39
6
36
091 DR.C.P.Urgel (reg.inv.)
58
091 DR.CAC bajo
38
1
091 DA.C
20
091 CR.Seg01
21 091 DR.Piñana y N.Rib.
091 CR.Nor02
091 CR.Alc01
43
091 EE.Rialp+Oliana
25
091 CR.Nop01
26
091 CR.Nor01
40
091 EE.Santa Ana
67
091 CR.Cin02
46
31
2
091 EF.S.Salvador
42
091 EP.Camarasa (+Ta+T)
091 EP.Canelles (+E)
65
2
20
091 CR.Gal03
62
11
091 DA.Resto Ebro medio+Fut091 DR.RAA-Monegros y Flumen
62
57
091 CR.Ese01
64
42
091 EF.J.Costa+S.Liestra
39 091 DR.Nog.Pallaresa
091 CR.Cin01
15
47
21
12
14
091 DA.Resto Gallego+Fut
091 DR.Afl.Aragon-Huerva
59
091 EE.Grado I (+M)
091 EE.Montearagon
32
091 CR.Gtz01
26
091 DR.Ebro medio Fut
091 EE.Val
091 CR.Ara01
091 EE.La Sotonera
091 DR.RAA-C.Monegros
44
091 EE.Vadiello
091 DR.Gallego+Fut
75
73
46
091 EF.Biscarrues
091 DA.Huesca
091 CR.Gal02
091 CR.Val01
3
38
22
60
091 DR.C.Taus te y otros
091 DR.Alhama
091 CR.Que01
22
11
24
091 DR.Arba
091 CR.Ebr07
091 DR.Cidacos
091 CR.Alh02
091 EF.Janovas
091 CR.Gal01
27
091 CR.Arn02
091 DR.Aragon medio
25
34 091 DA.Resto Ebro alto+Fut
091 DR.Aragon bajo y Arga
23
10
091 DA.Resto Aragón+Fut
9
36
091 DR.Aragon Fut
24
2
5
091 CR.Arn03
35
091 EF.Enciso
36
091 AP.Ara01
091 DR.C.Bardenas y Ara.alto
28
9
091 DR.Resto Ebro alto+Fut 091 DR.C.Lodosa-Aragon
091 CR.Ire02
53
091 CR.Ega01
45
4
59
24
091 CR.Arn01
091 CR.Arg02
091 DR.Ega
30
091 EE.Bubal (+L)
7
091 EF.Yesa rec
091 CR.Ebr03
091 DS.PHN
091 DT.Tarragona
Prevention
• Operational management of droughts in
water stress prone areas has to be
developed under the general measures
of water resources management
• Water planning is the key process
– Prevention
– Crisis management