long-term hazard assessmen volcanic field azard assessment on

long-term hazard assessmen volcanic field azard assessment on

XIV Reunión Nacional de Cuaternario, Granada 2015
LONG-TERM
TERM HAZARD ASSESSMENT ON QUATERNARY MONOGENETIC
VOLCANIC FIELDS USING E
E-TOOLS
L. Becerril (1), S. Bartolini (1), J. Martí (1), A. Geyer (1)
(1) Group of Volcanology, SIMGEO (UB
(UB-CSIC), Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera, CSIC. C/ Lluis Solé I Sabaris s/n.
08028-Barcelona,
Barcelona, Spain. [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]
Abstract (Evaluación
Evaluación de la peligrosidad a largo plazo en campos volcánicos monogenéticos cuaternarios utilizando etools): Los campos volcánicos monogenéticos se caracterizan normalmente por tener una gran dispersión del volcanismo y una
baja frecuencia eruptiva, lo cual dificulta la evaluación de la peligrosidad volcánica en ellos. El Grupo de Vulcanología de
Barcelona (GVB) ha comenzado a desarrollar una metodología y una serie de herramientas (QVAST, HASSET, VORIS) para la
evaluación de la peligrosidad volcánica
volcánica, las cuales han sido aplicadas con éxito a campos cuaternarios monogenéticos como La
Garrotxa, El Hierro o Decepción. En el marco del nuevo proyecto VeTOOLS se está llevando a cabo el desarrollo de nuevas
herramientas para la evaluación de la peligrosidad y del riesgo volcánico en otras islas volcánicas oceánicas. Con este proyecto
se pretende facilitar la cooperación entre científicos y organismos de protección civil con el fin de intercambiar y unificar
metodologías y tecnologías para reducir los impactos de las futuras erupciones.
Key words: Volcanic Hazard, e-tools,
tools, monogenetic fields, VeTools Project
Palabras clave: Peligrosidad Volcánica, e
e-tools, campos monogenéticos, Proyecto VeTools
INTRODUCTION
Monogenetic volcanic fields are the most common
volcano type on Earth. Most of these areas are
characterised by low frequent activity, therefore they
sometimes are regarded as not potentially dangerous
and often as non-active
active zones. These facts, together
with they are also characterised by randomness on
the spatio-temporal
temporal evolution of their volcanic
centres, make
ke difficult to forecast the probability of
occurrence of future eruptions, that is, to assess the
volcanic hazard in these areas.
The Group of Volcanology of Barcelona (GVB
(GVB,
http://www.gvb-csic.es/)) has started devel
developing a
systematic methodology to evaluate the volcanic
hazard in different volcanological settings through the
development and use of e-tools
tools integrated in a
Geographic Information System (GIS)
(GIS). Currently we
are creating an integrated software platform sp
specially
designed to assess and manage volcanic risk, called
VolcanBox. This platform contains user
user-friendly free
e-tools
tools specifically addressed to long
long- and short-term
hazard assessment, vulnerability analysis, decision
decisionmaking, and volcanic risk management that are being
developed in the frame of VeTools project (funded by
European Commission - Humanitarian Aid and Civil
Protection Service tools).. This project will facilitate
interaction and cooperation between scientists and
Civil Protection Agencies in order
der to share, unify, and
exchange
procedures,
methodologies
and
technologies to effectively reduce the impacts of
volcanic disasters by improving assessment and
management of volcanic risk.
Here we present the methodology and the application
of several e-tools
tools such as QVAST (spatial
probability), HASSET (temporal probability) and
VORIS (eruptive scenarios) to perform long
long-term
volcanic hazard assessment in three different
quaternary monogenetic volcanic fields: La Garrotxa
Volcanic Field (Catalonia, Spain),
n), El Hierro Island
(Canary Islands, Spain), and Deception Island (South
Shetland Islands, Antarctica).
STUDY AREAS
Spain is a monogenetic
La Garrotxa (Catalonia,, Spain)
volcanic field that contains over 50 cones ranging in
age 0.7 Ma - early Holocene (Fig. 1). It is a densely
populated industrial area and has an international
airport. This volcanic field has not been officially
considered as an active volcanic area until 2013 due
to its last eruption was 11--13 ky ago. Nevertheless it
has a considerable potenti
otential for future eruptions and
a volcanic hazard assessment has been conducted.
El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain), is the
emergent summit of a volcanic
vo
shield which rises
about 5,500 m from its submarine base at a depth of
~3,900 m b.s.l. (Fig. 1). It is the most recent active
island of the Canaries with 1.12 Ma in age (Guillou et
al., 1996). It hosted its last eruption in 2011-2012,
2011
that had a serious negative impact on the tourism
and on its local economy. This eruption highlighted
the need to perform
m volcanic hazard studies on the
island and also in the rest of the Canary archipelago.
Deception Island (South Shetland Islands,
Islands
Antarctica) is a composite volcanic system truncated
by a large central collapse caldera that is < 0.75 Ma
(Fig. 1). There have been more than 20 eruptions in
the past two centuries that have been well
documented. In spite of it is an inhabited area, it
hosts scientific bases that were destroyed or hardly
damaged in the lasts eruptions.
eruptions New eruptions on the
island could seriously affect scientists and tourists
since the number of visitors has increased since
1966. This fact together with there was enough
quality data to test the methodology there,
there prompted
us to develop the volcanic
canic hazard assessment in this
island.
METHODOLOGY
Long-term
term volcanic hazard assessment is necessary
to know how the next eruption could be. It is based
on the past history of the volcano and the information
needed comes from the geological record. Long-term
Long
assessment is estimated from years to decades,
where the main source of information is mainly
XIV Reunión Nacional de Cuaternario, Granada 2015
After a good understanding of the past eruptive
history of the volcanic area that tell us how next
eruptions could be, the following step on the volcanic
hazard assessment consists of evaluating the
likelihood of a future eruption, which will provide an
indication of which areas are the most likely to host
future vents (Martí and Felpeto, 2010). QVAST
(Bartolini et al., 2013a)) has been the e-tool
e
used to
evaluate the long-tern
tern spatial probability of vent
opening (Where). It mainly uses structural data such
as vents,, dykes, faults, fractures and eruptive fissurefissure
alignments obtained from geological and geophysical
studies.
The next step corresponds to the temporal probability
estimation of any possible volcanic event. Long-term
Long
forecasting is based on historical and geological
data, as well as on theoretical models, and refers to
the time window available before an unrest episode
occurs in the volcanic system. The e-tool
e
HASSET
(Sobradelo et al., 2014) has allowed evaluating the
temporal probability (When) of any possible
poss
volcanic
scenario.
Once spatial and temporal probabilities are
estimated, the next step forward consists of
simulating several scenarios for evaluating the
potential extent of the main expected hazards. Most
of these studies are based on simulation models
m
implemented on Geographical Information Systems
(GIS) that allow modelling volcanic processes such
as lava flows, PDCs and ash fallout. VORIS (Felpeto
et al., 2007) has been the e-tool
tool used for developing
volcanic scenarios.
The last step in a long-term
term volcanic hazard
evaluation consist of developing volcanic hazard
maps that can represent one of the bastions of risk
assessment and can be required for land-use
land
planning and for developing emergency plans.
CURRENT AND FUTURE EXPECTED RESULTS
We have started applying some of these free e-tools
e
for the long-term
term volcanic hazard assessment on La
Garrotxa Volcanic Field, El Hierro,
Hierro and Deception
Islands with very valuable results (Bartolini et al.,
2013, 2014, 2015; Becerril et al., 2013, 2014).
2014)
Fig. 1: Geographical location of the three monogenetic
volcanic fields where volcanic hazard assessment has
been conducted. 1) La Garrotxa Volcanic Field; 2) El
Hierro Island; 3) Deception Island.
structural data from past eruptions. Different steps
need to be followed sequentially in any long
long-term
volcanic hazard assessment. They are: 1) the
characterisation of past volcanism in the study area
(How?); 2) the analysis of the volcanic susceptibility
(Where?); 3) the estimation of temporal probabilities
(When?); 4) the simulation of the most probable
eruptive scenarios such as lava flows, pyroclastic
fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs); and
5) the assessment of the volcanic hazard.
We have obtained the spatial probability maps of
these three areas that have been the basis on the
evaluation of the temporal probabilities and on the
construction of the different volcanic scenarios
related to lava flows, PDCs and fallout (Fig.
(Fig 2). The
end result through the combination of the most
probable scenarios represents the first qualitative
integrated volcanic hazard maps
map of these volcanic
areas (Fig. 2).
Our purpose is to apply all the previous developed
and the new e-tools
tools on other volcanic oceanic islands
as they represent highly vulnerable natural and
socioeconomic systems. Some of them are going to
be the eastern Atlantic volcanic islands (Canaries,
Açores, and Iceland), which cover a wide range of
volcanological and socioeconomic scenarios, with the
th
aim of exporting the results obtained to the other
European volcanic islands, but also to the continental
active volcanic regions.
XIV Reunión Nacional de Cuaternario, Granada 2015
Fig. 2: Methodology used and results obtained using e
e-tools for the long-term
term volcanic hazard assessment on Deception
Island. For more information see Bartolini et al., 2013, 2014, 2015 and Becerril et al., 2013, 2014.
Acknowledgements: VeTools is a project financially
supported by the European
uropean Commission. EC ECHO project
SI.2.695524 (VeTOOLS) 2015-2016.
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