Meetings and conventions 2030: A study of megatrends

Transcripción

Futures study
Meetings and conventions 2030:
A study of megatrends shaping
our industry
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Contents
Table of Contents
Preface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Petra Hedorfer (GNTB) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Matthias Schultze (GCB). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Partners and supporters of the study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Situation and challenges
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10
Megatrends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Globalisation and internationalisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
"Peak Everything" – Shortage of resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Urbanisation – City of the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Demographic change, feminisation and diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Technology in work and life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Sustainable development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Mobility in the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14
18
22
26
32
38
44
48
Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Architecture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Transfer of knowledge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Technology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Summary of study results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Participants in the futures study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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90
Solely for reasons of better readability, we use the masculine form only for gender-specific terms in our study.
This includes both genders as a matter of course.
3
Preface
“It is not our task to predict the future but to be w
ellprepared for it.”
PERICLES (5TH CENTURY BEFORE CHRIST)
4
Preface
Petra Hedorfer,
Chief Executive Officer of the German
National Tourist Board (GNTB) and
Chair of the GCB’s Board of Directors
When it comes to the rating of destinations for meetings
and conventions, Germany has always been in the top
range of all important international rankings. But it would
be careless to rely on the assumption that this favourable
situation would automatically continue.
Due to globalisation and technology, increasing mobility
and the constantly evolving idea of sustainability, the
general circumstances are subject to rapid change. The
German Convention Bureau has made it their business
to determine the challenges we might be facing in the
years to come, and the measures that might be suitable
to maintain our success as a meeting and convention
destination on a high level or even increase it in the
future.
To paint a detailed picture of probable future
developments in the meeting and convention business,
the GCB has prepared this study with the support of a
wide selection of industry partners. The joint preparation
for the challenges we will be facing bears many
opportunities for further growth!
Matthias Schultze,
Managing Director of the GCB German
Convention Bureau
With reference to eight generally applicable so-called
"megatrends", numerous fields of activity may be derived for
our industry, which shall be further examined in the eight
chapters of the study.
Specific scenarios have been designed for this study focussing
on architecture, transfer of knowledge and technologies, which
provide a good overview of how trends that are currently
emerging will develop up until 2030.
The aim of the study will have been reached if a constant
dialogue continous and sustainable is established among the
players in the industry as well as with representatives of
politics and science, which will ideally develop into a
continuous process of jointly and collaboratively managing
the challenges we will be facing. Against this background,
providers and event planners on the one hand can derive
individual strategies, and industry associations can use the
study to create a common roadmap for the future on the
other.
I would like to thank our study partners whose support has
clearly enabled us to prepare the study in the given form, the
participants in the Delphi surveys, the participants in the
interviews and workshops, the numerous industry experts,
the representatives of politics and society, the scientists from
the most different disciplines and the IZT (Institute for
Futures Studies and Technology Assessment).
5
Study partners
Study partners
In your opinion,
which will be the most
important challenges in
the area of meetings and
conventions of the
future, and why have
you participated in the
study?
Joachim König, EVVC European
Association of Event Centres
"For the EVVC, the crucial challenge
is to inform the members of the
association in a comprehensive way
about trends, outlooks and concepts
regarding possible future developments, identifying critical developments for the event industry early
on and mastering them. The biggest
challenge will be to recognise the
changes to be made to event formats
in the future. The demographic development with an increasingly older,
more colourful and feminine society
will also show its impact on the meeting and convention industry – both on
the participants and on the staff. Our
reason to participate in the study is
to learn new approaches in thinking,
novel ideas and opportunities regarding this topic."
6
Gerrit Jessen,
MCI Deutschland GmbH
"Globalisation, unlimited mobility and
sustainability: these are only three
factors which have a large impact
on conventions and events already
today. We participate in the study
to be able to identify future trends
early, using them to develop recommendations for our customers. As a
global agency, we regularly invest in
research concerning the event industry in our core markets."
Study partners
Axel Biermann,
Ruhr Tourismus GmbH
"The Ruhr metropolitan area as the
third-largest urban agglomeration in
Europe reflects the societal mega
trends like a melting pot. Examples
of the future-oriented change in the
region are the former coal mines
which are now used as locations for
events and meetings, and InnovationCity Ruhr, a project regarding a
climate-friendly reconstruction of a
model city.
We have participated in the study
because we would like to obtain new
findings to implement this new spirit
of innovation of the region in meetings and convention tourism too."
Stefan Lohnert,
SevenCenters of Germany
"The most important challenge in
our industry is as simple as difficult:
to be able to constantly adapt to
the framework conditions which are
changing in an increasingly fierce
way and markedly faster. Those can
be space-related, technical but also
legal requirements – and this in an
international context.
The study is an important opportunity to mutually bring us up to
speed, comparing our activities to
the actions of the top players in the
industry in addition."
Heike Mahmoud, visitBerlin Berlin
Convention Office
"Conventions and meetings represent
an important part of knowledge transfer and personal exchange of information. Markets and customer behaviour
are changing at a breathtaking speed,
almost in parallel with the technological evolution of society. One of our
tasks is to provide strong networks
and platforms for innovation and
trends to our Berlin customers. The
integration of science in this process,
as is currently realised by the German
Convention Bureau, is an important
contribution for the meeting industry,
not only in Germany but all over the
world. Berlin is one of the leading
convention destinations of the world.
We have participated in this study in
order to learn the requirements of the
future."
7
Study partners
EDITOR OF THE STUDY
STUDY PARTNERS
8
Supporters
SUPPORTERS OF THE STUDY
German National Tourist Board
9
Introduction
Situation and challenges
Reliable information about the future and the identification of actionable options for shaping that future are more
and more urgently required to be able to master the big challenges of globalisation, rapid societal change and the technological and scientific changes both in terms of the seizing of opportunities and the assessment of risks.
Megatrends
Futurology:
Desktop Research,
Delphi Survey, Interviews with
Experts, Scenario Workshop,
Online Workshop
Future Study:
Fields of action
Future Scenarios
Statement from
Experts
Measures
and
Suggestions
10
2014: Development
of a Roadmap
Introduction
In the past decades, meetings and
conventions have developed into significant economic factors with comparatively good prospects for the future. In
Germany, 2.97 million events hosting
362 million participants were held in
2012. Among all meeting and convention destinations, Germany is presently
the number one location in Europe and
number two in the world - after the
U.S.A.
An important reason for the unchallenged position as European market
leader is Germany’s excellent infrastructure. A broad network of providers from
various industries offers ideal prerequisites for the organisation of successful
meetings and conventions. The wide
range of top-class meeting hotels,
congress centres and event locations is
of particular importance here, as is the
excellent value for money. And the transport connections with more than 40 airports, an extensive railway network and
well developed motorways are unique
as well. In addition, German providers
distinguish themselves by their high
power of innovation and their leading
position in the area of "Green Meetings"
and sustainability, for example.
"Meetings and conventions 2030: A study of
megatrends shaping our industry" shall contribute to the efforts aimed at safeguarding
that power of innovation. This study identifies, analyses and evaluates trends and
drifts with regard to their expected development until 2030 and their significance for
the meeting and convention industry. The
aim is to bring attention to relevant trends
early on to allow the industry to respond
in time, thereby protecting and further
expanding Germany’s successful position
as a meeting and convention destination.
The providers and meeting organisers of
today shall be offered a tool for shaping the
meeting and convention industry of tomorrow, to be able to efficiently go along with
developments, and partly even influence or
control them.
Events promote innovation
and convention industry and a processoriented and participatorily designed
outlining of scenarios. Initially, this study
gives an overview of the current situation
of the meeting and convention industry.
Based on that, selected social megatrends
especially important to the industry are
described: globalisation, shortage of resources, urban development, demographic
change, feminisation and diversity, mechanisation and digitalisation, sustainable
development, mobility and safety.
The meeting and convention industry in
its multifaceted appearance is particularly
affected by the ever increasing complexity
of the modern world. Meetings, conventions and events serve as platforms for
exchanging experiences and ideas. For
this reason, their successful organisation
also depends on numerous contextual
conditions and prerequisites – and this
is not likely to change during the next
few decades. By forming
a basis for an exchange of
DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE
information and the transfer
INDIVIDUAL DEVELOPMENTS, THE
of knowledge and supportDESCRIPTIONS INCLUDED IN THE STUDY
ing all aspects of education,
events also promote innovaSHALL NOT SERVE AS FORECASTS. THEY
tion. In this way, they generSHALL RATHER STIMULATE THE READER
ate impulses for political,
TO IMAGINE VARIOUS POSSIBLE
economic, scientific, and soDEVELOPMENTS.
cial processes, serving as an
instrument for international
understanding in addition. All the more,
These developments are very plausible
significant players need to identify and
and likely; due to the complexity of the
communicate future-oriented topics early
individual developments, the descripon and integrate them in their business
tions shall not serve as "forecasts",
strategies. Modern scientific futurology
however. They shall rather stimulate the
may make a material contribution here,
reader to imagine various and multifacproviding support and stimulation.
eted possible developments which are
interconnected in addition.
A tool for the meeting and
convention industry of
tomorrow
Recognised experts from all relevant
scientific disciplines as well as partners
and members of the German Convention
Bureau were involved in the scientific
work in a targeted way, contributing their
expertise to this study.
Proven methods of modern scientific
futurology were used for preparing the
study: in addition to guideline-based
interviews with international and national
experts, these included scientific trend
analyses, a two-step Delphi survey of selected international and national experts, a
broad online survey within the industry on
the further development of the meeting
11
Megatrends
Globalisation
and
internationalisation
„Peak Everything"
Demographic change,
feminisation and diversity
Sustainable development
12
Urbanisation –
city of the future
Technology in work
and life
Mobility in the future
Safety
Megatrends
Megatrends
An important starting point for futures
studies based on scientific facts is the
concept of "megatrends" which is also
used for the given study. Trends in general
indicate factors resulting from change and
innovation.
The term "megatrend" was created by
John Naisbitt, a U.S. trend researcher,
in his book of the same name in 1982.
Today, four characteristic features are
attributed to a megatrend:
»» Stability: exists for at least
Megatrends are long-term overall
transformations encompassing a long time
frame and demonstrating a wide reach as
well as high impact and stability. They can
be experienced by anyone, as they lead to a
paradigm shift or reorientation e.g. in
politics, during leisure time, at work, and
in the structures of value creation (in the
meeting and convention industry, for
example), thus resulting in overall change.
two decades
»» Omnipresence: has an effect
on all areas of life
»» Universality: is of a basically
global character despite regional
differences
»» Robustness: survives even
temporary setbacks
13
Megatrends | Globalisation and internationalisation
MEGATREND
Globalisation and
internationalisation
14
Contrary to previous ages, the kind of globalisation which has been observable during the past decades is a process impacting
the entire surface of our planet. This process is multifaceted and can be identified
in almost all areas of social life. It immediately involves more and more population
groups on all continents. Increasing global
interrelations between areas like economy,
politics, social life, culture, communication and environment can be seen. The
complexity of global relationships grows
on the level of individuals, institutions,
states, companies and associations as well
as supranational organisations such as the
European Union.
Foreign participants
in events in Germany
(in millions)
16.6
17.5
16.6
2007
2008
2009
18.7
19.9
22.1
14.3
2006
2010
2011
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
*Forecast based on the average annual change rate for the period 2006-2012, EITW
This consolidation of relationships between states in particular is referred to
as internationalisation. Development is
directed away from merely national politics
and towards the consolidation with and
delegation of regulation competences to
supranational and international institutions.
2020: A total of 80 million overnight stays
by foreign guests in Germany
+2m
Americas
+4m
Globalisation indicators
SOFI futures studies
+14m
Europe
60m
80m
2010 2020
SOURCE: GNTB FORECAST
Almost all of the indicators for globalisation
such as individual mobility, goods transport
volume, communication and internet access
are pointing upward. The same applies to
the areas of culture, language and politics.
International legal relations are increasing, as is the number of organisations, the
importance of non-governmental organisations is growing.
Asia, Arabic Gulf
States
As part of an international think tank - the
"Millennium Project" - futurologists and
masterminds gather information about futures studies, and produce the "State of the
Future Index" (SOFI) annually. The researchers assess areas indicating an improvement
or deterioration during the past 20 years,
projecting them over the next 10 years into
the future. The latest SOFI stated:
•
15
•
"There is less poverty in the world, fewer
infectious diseases, and less war. People are
living longer, the literacy rate is growing,
more women are in public offices and the
internet is more widespread than ever".
bbFor further information please refer to
www.gcb.de/en/future
Localisation and diversity as
countertrend
As is the case with all megatrends, globalisation is no monolithic process. There are
opposing trends like the important phenomenon of "glocalisation" or localisation, where
local and traditional aspects are strengthened. At a cultural level, diversity and variety
are, in part, a result of globalisation. For
globally acting companies, this means that
they have to better take into account the requirements of local customers and markets
despite the increasing homogenisation in
many product areas. This is especially true
for the meeting and convention industry.
In view of the rapidly changing framework
conditions, the significance of meetings
and conventions distributed over several
locations and countries is growing. Now it is
even more important to know perceptions
and backgrounds from the various markets,
countries and people in order to plan and
react correctly.
Globalisation as a dynamical
process
The forms of globalisation represent a comprehensive and powerful process causing
different interests to arise which may be of
international impact.
bb"Global Trends 2030": further link at
www.gcb.de/en/future
Increasing efforts to achieve
"global governance"
Against the background of existing and possibly arising economic, technological, ecological and sociocultural challenges, the efforts to achieve "global governance" should
intensify. Understanding and concerted
action ("coalitions of the willing" in climate
protection, for example) will be agreed upon
more often in the future.
Due to globalisation, meetings and conventions will have to become even more international. What does this mean in detail for the
meeting and conventions industry in Germany
during the next two decades?
"Due to the international competition between destinations, the participation in conventions will also depend on
the ability and willingness to pay for such participation in
view of economic crises. The attendance at events in far
away countries might decrease also because of the time
needed and the associated efforts. In any case, intercultural skills have to be strengthened and technological options
need to be utilised in a targeted way."
16
Professor Dr. Ulrich Reinhardt, Scientific Head
at the FOUNDATION FOR FUTURE STUDIES
(BAT – British American Tobacco)
Conclusions
With globalisation, the international competition among former competitors in the German
meeting and convention industry will aggravate. In addition, there are emerging destinations such as the BRICS states. Initially, they
will be attractive mainly within a regionally
limited area, but later develop global attractiveness depending on their international
orientation – especially in view of the prospering economies and the growing middle class
of those regions which are of special relevance
for meetings and conventions.
During the course of the progressing internationalisation and globalisation of the markets
and societal structures, the meeting and convention industry will gain in importance. Suitably equipped meeting locations and events
are an essential prerequisite for the increasing
processes of clarification and networking. For
globally acting organisations in particular, efficient exchange of information and transfer of
knowledge are of particular importance as their
market position and services are mainly based
on the development and leveraging of intellectual resources.
sideration even more in the future. This applies
to salutations, for example, religious rituals,
necessary meeting breaks and locations for
prayer, forms of contact and taboos, holidays
and food culture.
INTERCULTURAL
SKILLS GROW
MORE AND MORE
IMPORTANT.
But the local ambience of event locations is important as well and has to meet international
requirements and competitive criteria. Against
the background of increasing globalisation,
destinations are facing the challenge to better
concentrate their forces. Ideally, they will jointly
try to attract events, participants and guests
using a coordinated or even shared strategy.
Patterns of expectation, languages, cultural
behaviours as well as ways of communication
and interaction will need to be taken into con-
» Challenges
» Measures
»» Intensified competition with emerging destinations
»» Taking into account patterns of expectation, lan-
such as the BRICS states
»» Adapting to a new range of participants from the emerging destinations
»» Growing importance of meeting locations and events
as an essential platform for the increasing processes of
clarification and networking
»» Increasing requirements in the area of intercultural
skills / sensitivity
guages, cultural behaviours as well as ways of communication and interaction when preparing and
organising successful meetings and conventions
(including the use of technology)
»» Qualification and further education measures for the
strengthening of intercultural sensitivity, language
skills and attentive manners of communication
»» Investing in market research and education
»» Forming strategic marketing alliances
17
Megatrends | Peak Everything
MEGATREND
"Peak Everything" –
Shortage of resources
18
Since the beginning of industrialisation, the consumption of natural
resources has increased hugely all
over the world. Several resources are
clearly facing depletion, which partly
results in their prices significantly
increasing. Environmental stress may
affect regions worldwide, influencing
the utilisation of resources. At the
same time, the global population of
currently around 7 billion people will
have grown to around 9 billion by the
year 2050, which will additionally aggravate the problem.
Climate change
The consequences are visible in climate
change. Between 1970 and 2000 the portion
of CO2 in the atmosphere increased by 1.5
parts per million (ppm) per year - since then,
it has been increasing by 2.1 ppm per year.
The developed as well as the developing
countries are responsible for more than 80
per cent of those emissions. Although they
have committed to reducing emissions in
the meantime, this commitment will not be
sufficient to reduce CO2 concentration in an
adequate way.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPPC) had actually expected the
given changes of the weather and climate to
occur only after 2020.
IN 2013, THE "EARTH
OVERSHOOT DAY" THE DAY WHEN THE
YEARLY AVAILABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL
BUDGET IS DEPLETED WAS 20 AUGUST.
With the so-called "Earth Overshoot Day",
the Global Footprint Network has pointed
out for years when the yearly available
environmental budget would be consumed each year. In the year 2013, this was
20 August instead of 31 December: this
means that mankind had consumed the
environmental budget for the whole year
within only eight months. In 2011, the budget
had lasted for around one month longer:
until 27 September.
•
Consumption of natural resources
In 2011, mankind consumed 135%
of the resources generated by nature
135%
QUELLE: FOOTPRINTNETWORK.ORG
100%
19
•
Consequences
of the climate change
It is expected that extreme weather
events will occur more often, which may
affect the areas of infrastructure or
technology, for example, posing a social,
economic and ecological challenge for
the international community. Within the
global context, Germany needs to better
prepare for the consequences of climatic
changes as well.
Work-life balance
Apart from ecological stress there is also
stress in the social and cultural areas: acceleration and omnipresent performance
requirements and performance increases
are more and more depleting personal resources as well. Against the background of
this development, work-life balance will play
an increasingly important role.
Efficient utilisation
of resources and social
responsibility
So far, societies respond with technological innovations and individual measures.
Resource efficiency is increased and
renewable resources are used. Companies
respond to the increasing requirements
by means of activities in the areas of
Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and
Corporate Citizenship (CC).
In addition to those activities, further
measures to meet the challenges are conceivable, such as restrictions for resourceintensive products and services.
Due to resource bottlenecks, climate change
and the environmental burden, the social,
economic and ecological problems already
visible today will have further increased by
2030. Which measures do you take to meet
the challenges?
"The Lufthansa Group has been working for years on meeting people's growing need for mobility in a way which is as
environmentally-friendly as possible. In the area of climate
protection, the Group has big plans and has set itself ambitious targets. Our environmental targets are guided by
the industry's established four-pillar strategy which links
various environmentally-relevant measures. They range
from technological progress, via an improved infrastructure and operational measures right through to economic
instruments. In addition to investments of billions in new,
particularly efficient and quiet aircraft, we are involved
in numerous trend-setting projects which sustainably
improve the environmental compatibility of flying."
20
Astrid Messmer Rodriguez, Head of Business Area Strategy
and Coordinator of the Corporate Responsibility Council,
Deutsche Lufthansa AG
Conclusions
The meeting and convention industry is
affected by shortage of resources, climate
change and stress in several ways. Approaches directed at ecological and sustainably organised meetings and conventions will
therefore certainly increase in importance. The
requirements for sustainable actions increase,
extending to all areas of conducting meetings
and conventions: from the resource-sparing
construction of buildings, energy generation, efficient utilisation of resources and air
conditioning, through to the catering and the
framework programme. Not least the demands
regarding the organisers of meetings and
conventions and their expertise in terms of
sustainable activities are increasing as well.
tion, speakers may not be able to show for the
meeting, and deliveries may be delayed. In cities with a high frequency of heat waves, equipping the convention buildings with powerful
air conditioning systems or other technical
solutions will be very important. Depending on
the climate, additional costs for prevention and
damage handling will arise.
With regard to personal stress, offers taking
into account psychosocial regeneration as
well might meet the participants’ need for
relaxation. Attractively packaged solutions
for speakers and participants might generate
added value for the event, which makes the
journey and participation more "rewarding" in a
professional, touristic and personal sense.
APPROACHES
DIRECTED AT
ECOLOGICAL AND
SUSTAINABLY
ORGANISED
MEETINGS AND
CONVENTIONS
ARE BECOMING
MORE IMPORTANT.
In the future, the certification standards for
sustainable events should play a decisive role,
both in terms of transparency and scientific
integrity.
The consequences of climate change will have
a varying impact on the different regions.
Accordingly, the kinds of impairment will also
differ greatly. Local extreme weather events
can affect infrastructure and mobility. In addi-
» Challenges
» Measures
»» L
imits to natural resources, resulting in price increases
and global environmental burden
»» Disturbances to infrastructure and technology and
impairment of mobility as a consequence of extreme
weather events and climatic changes
»» Rising importance of work-life balance due to omnipresent acceleration, performance requirements and
performance increases
»» C
onsistent ecological and sustainable organisation
of meetings and conventions and corresponding
promotion
»» Construction of convention buildings, energy
generation and utilisation of resources, air conditioning, catering and framework programme adapted to
the overall requirements
»» Standardisation and certification based on the
principles of sustainability for many segments
of event organisation (including sustainable and
intelligent traffic concepts)
»» Adequate consideration of elements of psychosocial
regeneration as an essential need of the participants
21
Megatrends | Urbanisation
MEGATREND
Urbanisation – City of the future
22
The process of urbanisation has
been going on for centuries and is
not likely to end soon. In 1975, 38
per cent of the global population
lived in cities, in 2008 it was more
than half, and in 2030 it will be
more than 60 per cent according
to a United Nations report. Even in
already strongly urbanised Germany, where three fourths of the
population are living in cities, the
areas of high population density
and metropolitan areas are still
growing despite the total population being decreasing.
A specific characteristic of the urbanisation process is the so-called megacity.
Depending on the definition, metropolises with at least ten million inhabitants
and polycentric agglomerations with
several centres are included (McGee
1998). Accordingly, the Rhein-Ruhr
metropolitan area with its far more than
13 million inhabitants also counts among
the megacities (UN 2004). Due to their
growing number, enormous size and
rapid development megacities will have
gained in importance all over the world
by 2030. They are focal points of globalisation processes and – which should not
be underestimated – locations for international meetings and congresses in a
world which is more and more dominated
by cities.
Progressing urbanisation on the one
hand is accompanied by settlement
areas (mainly smaller cities) which are
being depleted in the course of the
increasing concentration of the population on the other. Such "shrinking cities"
can be observed in developed countries
in particular.
Temporary usage concepts
It can be expected that by 2030 even
more people than today will use flexible
forms of living and working. Be it for a
business or private reason – temporary
living and working solutions in various
forms and price categories will gain importance in the future. Unoccupied areas
and buildings in cities may easily become
especially lively locations of temporary
"intermediate usage". The meeting and
convention industry can also benefit
from this fact by locating meetings and
events exactly at those places of innovative culture production and vivid publicity
which initially cannot be developed by urban planning and the real estate market
in this manner.
Intelligent technologies
In the year 2030, the city as a focal point
of human life and important location
for events will have to rely on intelligent technologies for an efficient and
networked infrastructure. It is essential
to establish smart technologies as innovative solutions to the requirements
faced by cities in various areas of living
and working.
•
Due to their enormous size
and rapid development,
megacities will have gained
in importance as focal points
of globalisation all over the
world by 2030. Which design
potentials have to be developed and which approach do
you follow with respect to this
trend? What does Berlin
currently do to achieve its
goals?
Heike Mahmoud, CMP, Director Conventions,
visitBerlin Berlin Convention Office
"For conventions, the increasing
urbanisation is a challenge which can
be mastered using special service,
regional integration and attractive
additional offers. The specific addressing of target groups and customised
touristic offers with local colouring are
increasingly important in international
competition. Apart from that we try
to offer special benefits by means of
concrete sustainability projects. Berlin
has become part of an international
network. As a member of the "BestCities Global Alliance" of ten leading
convention cities worldwide, we offer a
powerful network and tailored services
for any customer. The services are reviewed and certified annually by Lloyds
Registered Quality Assurance. In this
manner, we can offer our customers
great added value. Berlin is one of the
most diverse metropolises in Europe: a
trendsetter in an international context,
vivid art and design capital, a city that
is constantly changing. Those capacities and innovations have an increasing
impact on the contents of meetings
and conventions. The know-how of
the city leaves its mark on the events
in form of key notes or best practices.
A win-win situation for both sides for
shaping the future."
23
•
Conclusions
Since their historic emergence, cities have
been creative spaces for social, economic,
ecological and political innovations. Due to
their social density and close work-sharing
network, concentration of knowledge and
infrastructures, they have always played
a special future-oriented role. Cities
allow for a close and quick exchange of
information between the social players – a
prerequisite for sound strategies. This is
the reason why urban areas have been
locations for the organisation of meetings
and conventions for a long time and will
be in the future.
In international and greater regional
competition between cities and regions to
become event locations, the individually
suitable cities and city networks need to
be identified and promoted. For the future, questions regarding accessibility and
connectivity will arise in particular. Aside
from that, the individual characteristics of
a city or urban area will play an important
role. A city’s appearance, cultural offers or
special conditions of the surroundings are
decisive criteria for participation in events
to some target groups. Hospitality, safety,
language, tolerance and openness are
some of the "soft criteria" for the competition. Today, some "famous" events are
already located in rather small cities, such
as the "World Economic Forum" in Davos.
Direct shaping of such parameters is
difficult and can be mastered in the long
run only. Bilbao has been successful: with
urban design measures and enormous
costs, like for the Guggenheim Museum
designed by top architect Gehry, very high
numbers of visitors and economic growth
rates have been generated. But the "Bilbao effect" is based on special constellations and can not be imitated or repeated.
Nevertheless, this example of success
shows that it makes sense to think
holistically and for the medium term. Or
develop a local leitmotiv where the most
different players can get involved and contribute. For some destinations, this might
also mean to emphasise and cultivate
qualities like calm, a feeling of security,
cosiness, nature, etc.
programmes. In general, the objective will
be to use and communicate the "endogenous potential" in an intelligent and
future-oriented way.
Another variant is made up of urban
centres that are able to distinguish themselves by means of local colouring. Mainly
large urban areas such as Berlin, Munich
or the Ruhr Metropolitan Area can still
position themselves in the international
market, while providers in other urban
areas may rely on regional demand. But
even here, attractive offers and formats
are conceivable which meet the requirements of certain target groups, if the
relevant profiling is carried out especially
by means of successful customer loyalty
» Challenges
» Measures
»» I ncreasing requirements especially for megacities as
focal points of globalisation processes and central
locations for international meetings and conventions
»» Need for a stronger differentiation of destinations due
to a more fierce competitive situation
»» I mprovement of accessibility and connectivity as
well as cultural attractiveness
»» Support of the local environs: cityscape, cultural
offers, aesthetic appeal, and exotic environment
conditions, while at the same time ensuring safety
»» Identification of economic and scientific
competences
»» Formation of clusters and strategic alliances
24
25
Megatrends | Demographic change, feminisation and diversity
MEGATREND
Demographic change,
feminisation and diversity
26
Demographic change primarily
describes the quantitative changes
in the population. According to a UN
estimation from 2010, the world’s
population will grow from 7 billion to
8.3 billion people in the course of the
next 20 years. In addition, the rising
life expectancy will lead to an ageing
of the population. Today, 760 million people on earth are older than 60
years. By the year 2030, that number
will probably have almost doubled.
The demographic processes up to the year
2030 vary between individual regions —
in terms of the indicators of number of
inhabitants and births, life expectancy,
ageing of the population and immigration
or migration. For the developed countries, basically a population decrease with
simultaneous ageing of the population and
a correspondingly strong increase of the
number of people no longer working due to
their age are expected. For the developing
and emerging countries, population growth
with simultaneous regional agglomerations
of inhabitants is forecasted.
Development in Germany:
absolute decline in population
and more older people
According to a population forecast by the
Bertelsmann Foundation from 2011, the
number of people living in Germany will
have reduced from currently 80.2 million to
around 77 million inhabitants by the year
2030. The number of persons of a working
age between 20 and 65 years will probably
have decreased from currently around 50
million to 36-39 million people.
Aside from this absolute decline in population, the age structure will also change
significantly. In 2030, every other person
will be older than 49 years (in 2009 by
comparison, this so-called median age
was 44 years). The age group from 19 to 24
years will have strongly decreased by 2030,
and thus also the potential new blood for
companies and employers. Contrary to all
younger age groups, the age groups of retired persons will exclusively show growth.
The general ageing of the population is
especially obvious regarding the development of the number of people that are over
80 years old.
Global perspective: growing
middle class — more potential
participants in events
Thanks to the growing middle class in numerous countries of the world, the event
industry will have to familiarise itself with
this new target group and thus can expect
a correspondingly high potential of new attendees of meetings and conventions.
Feminisation of society
According to the work "On the Process
•
of Civilisation" (1939) by well-known
Lifelong learning becomes
a necessity, just as the
increasingly locationindependent social activation of people. In your
point of view, which are
the challenges the persons
concerned are facing in this
respect?
"Since more and more mobile
phones with internet access are
increasingly common, making
knowledge accessible at any time
at almost any place of the world,
young and older people need to
reconsider their former education
habits."
Guido Brombach, Head of Competence
Centre Digital Communications,
Education and Media of the German
Trade Union Confederation, Hattingen
27
PEOPLE NO LONGER
NEED TO CONFORM
WITH TRADITIONS SO
MUCH AND CAN LIVE
ACCORDING TO THEIR
INDIVIDUAL NEEDS AND
BELIEFS.
• German sociologist Norbert Elias, a
refinement of customs and manners
has been observed for centuries. Physical strength and other characteristics
defined as being "masculine" lose
in relevance — not least due to the
economic and technological change.
The transition to a knowledge society
leads to marked changes in qualification profiles and job markets: characteristics that are considered to be
rather "feminine", such as team spirit,
social competence and multitasking
skills, grow in importance. The growing
portion of women with Abitur (school
leaving examination qualifying for university admission; 56 per cent in 2008)
and with university degree (52.9 per
cent in 2008) is an indicator for the rise
in importance of women in all areas of
society (source: German Federal Statistics Office 2012).
28
In general, an "individualisation" (Beck/
Beck-Gernsheim 1994) has been observed
for decades, which includes "de-traditionalisation" in particular. People no
longer need to conform with traditions so
much and can live according to their individual needs and beliefs. This leads to a
change in a number of thinking patterns
and role standards, and completely new
perceptions of life and lifestyles arise.
In total, the range of role variants is becoming wider ("diversity"). Globalisation
(particularly migration) and democratisation contribute to that change.
Feminisation and the change towards
diversity are quasi omnipresent in everyday life. Multiculturality is obvious, and
fashion, appearance, ideals of beauty,
sexuality, language, music, and role models in films show wide variations.
In view of future generations, today’s
young people are already extremely
versatile. As estimated in youth studies,
"there are more than 600 persisting
youth cultures, so-called ‘artificial tribes’,
today — many of them invented by
industry of course — (…), and youths at
an age of 11-19 years pass through six to
eight of those cultures on average, often
belonging to two or three youth cultures
simultaneously. In general, young people
of the 21st century are true ‘sampling geniuses’." (Klaus Farin: generation-kick.de
– Jugendsubkulturen heute. Munich 2001,
p. 206).
In the future, further diversification can be expected for
meetings and conventions as
well. Feminisation, international attendees and accessibility are key words for the
next decades. What would
be the best response by the
industry, what measures would
make sense?
"The audience is becoming more and
more heterogeneous and international.
Here it will make sense to enhance
the qualifications in some areas, with
regard to language skills or adequate
conduct towards guests from other
cultures, for example. Internships in
foreign countries are one possibility
of how to prepare employees for such
challenges — and they are also offered
for apprentices by the way. Crosscultural training sessions, workshops on
intercultural skills are other options the
providers can choose."
Individualisation
and diversity
Dr. Ulrike Regele, Head of the
Department for Trade and Tourism,
The Association of German
Chambers of Commerce and
Industry (Deutscher Industrie- und
Handelskammertag, DIHK e.V.)
Aside from the numerous effects of
that change, the challenge arises not to
categorise individual persons too quickly
but perceive them with their whole and
special character, accept them and act
correspondingly. Attentiveness, mindfulness, self-reflection, and tolerance are
needed here, but cannot be offered by
everyone.
•
29
•
Conclusions
Demographic change will have a strong
impact on the meeting and conventions
industry — on the future availability of
staff and economic dynamics in Germany,
for example. The population development
implies especially strong restrictions with
regard to the availability of apprentices
and young professionals.
In the years up to 2030, demographic
change might affect the German meeting
and conventions industry in specialised
and innovation-dependent areas in
particular — and may have different effects in different regions. It is expected
that the number of qualified staff from
foreign countries employed here will
rise. This means that the industry as
an employer will need to identify the
regionally differing trends and challenges
already early and take them into account
in their decisions. This applies to design
and infrastructures within the buildings
but also to modernisation and layout
of workplaces. The range of education
and qualification offers will need to
be adapted accordingly as well or even
extended individually.
Preventive health management and lifelong learning will rise in importance with
regard to ageing staff and the activation
of currently not employed people for the
job market. Aside from the expected
challenges in the human resources area,
further aspects will need to be considered. The trend of single-child families,
for example, might lead to rising expectations and demands regarding events,
requiring more support and other services
— or an increased attentiveness towards
the attendees.
From the perspective of ageing customers, accessibility in a broader sense, i.e.
including visual and acoustic aspects,
will become an essential criterion for
attractiveness, comfort, and satisfaction. The organisers and service providers
will have to show higher willingness as
well as the ability to respond to special
requirements and needs of visitors and
attendees or take them into account
already beforehand. From the changes
during the course of demographic development, feminisation and the general
diversity of lifestyles results the demand
to take into account the individuality of
people and their needs in all situations
and any context. In the course of equal
opportunities / integration of women in
all areas of the job sector and public life,
changes have become obvious: there are
female heads of government, soldiers,
In the course of time: meeting and convention attendees today and in 2030
Xiaomeng
self-employed, female,
58 years old, single,
born in China,
living in New York
Daniel
salaried, male,
42 years old,
married, two children,
born in Germany,
living in Cologne
2013
2030
Smartphone
Smartphone
Tablet PC
Earphones
Camera
USB stick
Power supply units
Business cards
Note pad
Pens
Daily paper
30
Programme
Attendee card
Smart glasses
Google Glass
IIn-ear phones
ID card
Credit card
Railway card
Flight ticket
Car keys
Hotel card
Cash
The graphics are based
on the development of
megatrends and the
results of the Delphi
survey.
conductors, architects, etc. There are
allocations of quotas and infrastructural
changes. Demographic change requires
similar adjustments for older people, for
example. The same applies for people
with disabilities, special needs or skills
(accessibility, sign language in some TV
programmes). Moreover, the complex
integration processes for immigrants are
being developed. Those topics will probably be an important challenge for the
organisation of events even beyond the
year 2030.
PREVENTIVE HEALTH MANAGEMENT AND
LIFELONG LEARNING WILL RISE IN IMPORTANCE
WITH REGARD TO AGEING STAFF AND THE
ACTIVATION OF CURRENTLY NOT EMPLOYED
PEOPLE FOR THE JOB MARKET.
» Challenges
» Measures
»» Markedly ageing population which stays active for a
longer time
»» Rise in importance of "female values" and skills due to
social and cultural developments
»» Perception of any person as an individual, applying
attentiveness, mindfulness, and tolerance
»» Changed motivations and aspirations of the younger
generation
»» Early identification of regionally differing trends and
challenges
»» Specific layout of infrastructures in new buildings
and modernisations
»» Adequate layout of workplaces, age management,
and improvement of the employers’ attractiveness by
internships also in foreign countries and qualification
measures, for example
»» Prevention of burnout by means of sabbaticals and
suitable work-life balance
»» Equipping locations for accessibility with walking
frames, acoustic amplification
»» Specific addressing by means of interactive
convention formats
31
Megatrends | Technology
MEGATREND
Technology in work and life
32
Modern technologies, especially in
the information and communication
areas, will further rapidly change the
living and working environments of
people up to the year 2030. Numerous devices and products are increasingly equipped with embedded logical
components constantly enhancing
their range of functions. The hidden
systems consist of not much more
than tiny processors, some memory
and software. They have been integrated in more and more components
of building automation as well as
sound, light and stage technology, but
also in mobile end devices, routers and
displays.
At the same time, increasing networking
of those systems and devices both among
each other and in local networks, mobile
networks and the Internet can be observed.
Any objects become identifiable, can be
localised and correlated with each other.
They may be passive, just allowing identification, or process information themselves
and respond actively to changes. Objects of
daily life become "smart objects" which are
linked, respond actively to their environment
and interact with their users. Whether within
a meeting room or on different continents:
information about the most different objects
can be linked, exchanged and processed.
INNOVATIVE, SOCALLED "NATURAL"
MAN-MACHINE
INTERFACES ALLOW
MORE AND MORE
NOVEL FORMS OF
INTERACTION AND
COMMUNICATION.
Given the constant further development and
distribution of technologies in economy and
society, the relationship between man and
technology will have significantly changed
by 2030. The area of interaction between
man and technology and its shaping with
regard to various kinds of usage is of significant importance here. Whether through
touch, movement or language — innovative,
so-called "natural" man-machine interfaces
allow more and more novel forms of interac•
tion and communication.
Man-machine interfaces
Sensor system
Example for usage:
At the beginning of the first break of an event,
an attendee asks his smartphone (interface) with
voice recognition: “Where ist the coffee station
where my colleagues are waiting?”.
On an interactive map, his own position and
the colleagues’ position are displayed.
Interface
Motor
activity
33
How will the requirements for service providers and event
centres change in the context of evolving event technology?
"Basically we observe a trend towards
more and more complex customer
demands. Customers desire multi-zone
acoustic irradiation with sophisticated
recordings, lighting of sceneries according to TV standard to allow camera use,
and state-of-the-art lighting technology. In the media technology area,
the different methods are merged in
a playful way. Live camera broadcasts
are displayed together with PowerPoint
presentations and films, for example, on
unformatted and partly three-dimensional objects by means of projection or
LED. The overall impression is complemented by means of teleprompting,
voting and videoconference technology.
Technology is rapidly developing further,
becomes more affordable and easier
to handle. Based on our experience,
customer expectations and thus also the
requirements for event locations have
increased in the past years. If a location
is not able to meet a requirement due
to technological development — also
with regard to the existing infrastructure (e.g. ceiling height and load bearing
capability) — another location is chosen.
This is the reason why the organisers
should involve local technology providers
with adequate qualifications from the
beginning in order to jointly advise the
customers and to be able to realise the
intended projects. When planning new
locations or modernising existing ones it
is absolutely necessary that experienced
companies be incorporated, in addition
to classic architects, to take into consideration meaningful technology requirements early on at the concept stage.
The above-mentioned rapid development of technology will have decisively
changed meetings, conventions and
events by the year 2030. Here primarily the following technologies come to
mind:
»»Daylight-compatible display screens
(LED and seemless displays) are
34
becoming more affordable. The same
is true of 3D mapping as projection
method to three-dimensional objects.
This method can be used to present
interior views and functional methods
of new products, for example.
»»Touch-sensitive displays and projections generate attentiveness and
interaction between the speaker and
his audience.
»»Streaming and webcasts transport the
event to any place. Votings, questions
and tweets are contributed by participants in real time independent of their
individual locations.
In my opinion, mobile device solutions
will have the greatest impact on meetings and conventions, however. As a
kind of "reply channel", they are the
logical further development of streaming and webcasts providing a method to
participate in and contribute to an event
remotely. Independent of their location
and in real time, the participants can influence the event via votings, questions
and tweets.
"Our vision is that a smartphone
will provide all information,
documents, audio and video data
for an event."
Software is individually adapted to the
relevant event, giving each participant
access via smartphone to information
(agenda, lecture contents, speakers),
methods of interaction (e.g. voting or
Q&A), and communication in the form
of Tweet walls and other social media
channels. These are only some functions
which, in a paperless way and constantly
updated by a server, enhance the sustainable and measurable result rate of
a meeting. Theoretically, events at various locations of the world may also be
connected via the web in this way. The
vision is that our smartphone provides
all information, documents, audio and
Christian Sommer,
Cofounder and Managing Partner
of AMBION GmbH
video data for an event. Recurring
events are stored there, closed chats
and links as well as exchange of
contact information between participants are possible. During meetings,
participants can be searched for,
optionally also by their properties
such as home town or hobbies. Via
"handshake", a specifically developed
method for exchanging contact data,
participants may build networks. It
makes sense, however, to use mobile
devices for a limited time only and
establish "mobile-device-free" zones
where participants can communicate
in person. Sensitive topics of such
kind of networking are certainly data
protection requirements and the theoretical possibility of user behaviour
being tracked. The systems must
respect the participants’ privacy. It is
routine for us, for example, to delete
all data after an event. In addition,
communication data are transmitted
encrypted with a code which can be
decrypted only by other participants
in the convention.
Also very exciting and literally
pathbreaking: interactive guiding
systems lead through trade fairs and
exhibitions — the topic of augmented
reality being a promising task for the
future."
•
Privacy and data protection
Technology has a large impact not only on
the development of all economic sectors
but also on broad parts of society and
lifestyle. Novel technologies and their
linking open up many possibilities of
simplifying existing processes in our daily
professional and private life or generating new options. At the same time,
those developments raise the need for a
general discussion with regard to the role
of publicity and privacy, data protection
and security, for example. The increasing
"dislimitation" between professional and
private life will certainly become a topic in
•
this context.
Event centres need to
develop answers to the
questions as to how to
operate the rapidly
developing and constantly
changing applications and
gadgets and to use technology to meet the growing
requirements of event organisers and attendees on
site. Which concrete technological developments do
you consider must-haves
for the year 2030?
Stefan Rief, Head of Competence Center
Workspace Innovation Fraunhofer IAO
"In the future, the direct method of teaching educational contents will be
increasingly replaced by open learning processes. This will require technologies
playing an essential role for intuitive navigation through the relevant event,
the convention centre and the immediate environment. Real-time information
about "agglomerations of know-how", that is clusters of persons at interesting discussion sites, or similar services can help to give events spontaneity and
make them up to date."
The Internet of Things and Services...
Intelligent linking of objects and services via the Internet
Event
Mobility
Programme status
display, programme
information, display of
vacant seats, list of
attendees in the room,
catering (place, offer,
waiting times), position
of “friends”, ...
Parking status display,
travel options (flight,
railway, regional public
transport, etc.), taxi
station status, ...
Building
Environment
Energy consumption, air
conditioning data,
oxygen contents, room
plan, retreating rooms
status, safety
information, WC
facilities status, ...
Options for leasure
activities according to
individual interests,
hotel capacities,
weather forecast,
services nearby, ...
Participants
Organisers
Service
providers
35
•
Conclusions
In the course of the evolution of technology
in work and life, the use of state-of-the-art
technology in meeting and convention centres is progressing as well. Sensors, control
elements and other technical units in the
building are being linked and automated. The
purpose is to increase comfort and security
while at the same time reducing energy consumption. Against the background of the demographic development, the needs of older
people should be considered in an increasing
way. Aside from the relevant construction
Will events be held only in
virtual rooms in the year
2030?
"No, but the event landscape will further
develop and change during the next 17
years. An essential aspect for participating in an event is the availability of the
resources needed by the participants
— time and money. There will still be
events of different sizes where direct
contact to other people and the common
experience are in the focus. Meetings
conducted using audio- or videoconferencing already today will account for a
markedly larger part of events as the
use of virtual reality tools allows for a
significantly lower consumption of the
participants’ resources."
In your opinion, how realistic
is the assumption that interactive applications in connection with 3D projections
will be developed and used
by default at meetings and
conventions, and could you
describe what the event industry expects the key word
of "virtual reality" to mean in
the future?
36
"Area-wide usage of technology by the
population also depends on the layout
of the man-machine interface and on
the costs for end devices and software.
When looking at the previous development in the field of virtual reality, it
may be anticipated that corresponding visualisation methods will become
increasingly better affordable and
better with regard to technological
quality such that they will penetrate
further into everyday life, becoming
also part of meetings and conventions.
A head-mounted display by Oculus
Rift, for example, costs around 300
euros today, while a few years ago one
would have paid a five-digit amount
for it. 3D display technology for which
glasses are no longer needed (like
Nintendo 3DS) and which can be clearly
viewed from several angles will become
common and decisively influence our
handling of available information. The
same applies to augmented-reality
systems like Google Glasses. This is the
reason why those technologies will be
increasingly used for the provision of
information and as multilateral means
of communication. In compliance with
data protection laws and personal
rights of the participants, it will be
possible to gear meetings and conventions further towards the attendees’
needs such that every attendee will be
able to use his or her time on site more
measures, automation of the building and its
components plays a significant role. In order
to achieve a useful degree of automation,
as many end devices as possible need to be
linked via a central control unit.
In the area of event technology, more
and more specific technology is used: 3D,
interactive apps, etc. Rendering formerly
passive media interactive, by means of QR
codes or RFID chips for example, increasingly
facilitates the retrieval of digital contents on
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Daniel Schilberg,
Managing Director of the Institute
of Information Management in Mechanical Engineering (IMA) at the
RWTH Aachen University
efficiently and the organisers can adapt
their services better to the customers’
requirements."
site at meetings and conventions. Provided
that corresponding investment budgets exist,
holographic display and storage options at
the event centres allow the creation of entire
digital landscapes where attendees and
speakers can immerse in using their digital alter ego — the avatar. For some event formats,
new translation technologies will offer relevant solutions. In the area of man-machine
interfaces, new adaptive, context-dependent
options of merging language, touch, and
gesture control based on environment sensor
systems are emerging. The language interface is adapted to the relevant social environment of the user: using smartphones to make
or receive calls during meetings, conventions
or conferences, for example, is prevented by
technical means to avoid unnecessary noise
and disturbances for the other participants.
In addition, more and more people possess
powerful mobile end devices and are always
linked with each other via ever new social
media channels. Merchandising their own
event series, particularly using social media
measures and live communication, becomes
more and more important for organisers in
the meeting and conventions industry. The
highly dynamic development of technology
leads to ever new and growing requirements
of the working environment which can only be
mastered by well-qualified staff. Therefore,
a prerequisite for ensuring economic success
and progress is to constantly adapt and develop the educational and training system in
the meeting and conventions industry.
MERCHANDISING THEIR OWN EVENT SERIES USING SOCIAL
MEDIA MEASURES AND LIVE COMMUNICATION BECOMES
MORE AND MORE IMPORTANT FOR ORGANISERS IN THE
MEETING AND CONVENTIONS INDUSTRY.
» Challenges
» Measures
»» Changes to the living and working environments due to
complex technologies leading to still growing requirements with regard to education and skill building
»» Questions emerging with respect to ethical rights in
view of the extended range of functions and increasing
autonomy of objects, devices, and products
»» Increasing merging of virtual and physical worlds:
objects become identifiable, can be localised and correlated with each other
»» Stronger interlinkage of the systems, in local networks, mobile networks and on the Internet, raising
questions of security and data protection when handling the growing volume of data
»» Increasing security and comfort and reducing the consumption of resources by automating event centres and
building networks within the building, e.g. using sensors,
actuators, and control elements
»» Analysis of the need of older people and other groups
of participants (demand cluster) with regard to possible
technical support potentials
»» "Novel way of constructing" based on a good exchange
of information between all persons involved in planning
and implementation as well as on current technological
developments
»» Closer linkage of the marketing to social media measures
and live communication
»» Technology scouting for an early identifiation of relevant
technological trends
37
Megatrends | Sustainable Development
MEGATREND
Sustainable development
38
Megatrends | Sustainable development
Numerous phenomena and indicators
point to the fact that the general principle of "sustainable development" will
establish itself as mainstream and will
have developed further and become a
matter of course by the year 2030.
Within some decades, the priority of sustainable procedures will have become established all over the world including countries
initially not having played a leading role in
this field.
However, this approach to future challenges
based on the principles of sustainability
is very ambitious and only possible due
to huge efforts, targeted innovation and
eventually a cultural change that requires
a change of thought patterns and habitual
behaviours.
Social change opens up new
opportunities
According to relevant studies, huge efforts
will be made in order to implement sustainable standards in the course of the next
decades. Changes implying approaches to
future design and governance forms as well
as sustainable lifestyles can already be seen
today. These are, for example, intensified environmental standards and related
ratings, efficiency strategies and business
models, new procedures of civic involvement
and forms of applied e-democracy, local
projects that are internationally linked at the
same time, new administrative panels and
design processes. As of recently, modern and
complex transformation strategies as well
as comprising control concepts effective on
•
several levels are being discussed.
DUE TO STRONG
EFFORTS, SUSTAINABLE
STANDARDS WILL
HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED ALL OVER
THE WORLD BY 2030.
The number of service providers with a sustainability
management system is rising.
Organisers prefer service providers
with certification.
SOURCE: MEETING AND EVENTBAROMETER 2013
44,1%
33,3%
27,4%
37,7%
39,7%
2011
2012
2013
2030
39
Sustainable Development: Today sustainability is a
significant concern for the meetings and events industry as
sustainable meetings can register a strong growth within
the market. Which steps do you take to make clear you are
serious about it?
Salwa Dallalah, Coordinator Conference Affairs Services, United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC secretariat
"UNFCCC understands that a “sustainable event is one designed, organized and implemented in a way that
minimizes potential negative impacts
and leaves a beneficial legacy for the
host community and all involved”. This
definition has been taken from the
UNEP Sustainable Events Guide, which
was developed with contribution by the
UNFCCC secretariat and other sister UN
agencies).
UN Climate Change sessions are among
the largest conferences worldwide, and
the biggest annual events organized in the
UN system. The UNFCCC secretariat has
always strived to minimize the negative
impact (especially on people, communities and natural resources) of the sessions
it organizes. The scale and ambition of
sustainability actions at UNFCCC conferences crucially depend on the respec-
governments for UNFCCC sessions have
increasingly taken steps to reduce the
local greenhouse gas emissions resulting
from these events .
In addition to actions carried out by the
host country, the secretariat routinely implements the following measures in order
to reduce the carbon footprint of UNFCCC
conferences:
»» Reducing paper usage and wastage,
with detailed reporting of relevant
statistics. For instance, print runs
for official documents are minimized
while the Daily Programme is made
available in electronic form only.
Double-sided printing and print-on-demand of a particular document or part
of it is a service that is systematically
offered to avoid unnecessary printing.
Sustainability has now grown to become a principle of
planning UNFCCC sessions which greatly helps to minimize
potentially negative impacts
tive host country’s commitment and
availability of resources as well as the
available infrastructure. The secretariat
actively offers advice and experience
from past conferences and encourages
host countries to consider and address
sustainability aspects when preparing for
the event. Consequently, since 2005 host
40
»» The distribution of information material in hardcopy form is extremely
limited; instead the use of electronic
media, such as USB flash drives and
CD-ROMs, is encouraged, bearing
in mind that most delegates carry
laptops and smart phones. To further
facilitate access, the posting of PDF
documents on the UNFCCC website
and the use of Quick Response codes
are actively promoted.
»» Reducing and limiting the size and
weight of shipments for side events,
exhibits as well as for materials for UN
staff servicing the conferences.
»» Procuring office supplies locally.
»» The UNFCCC secretariat routinely
purchases certified emission reduction
credits and cancels an amount equivalent to its overall carbon footprint,
thereby offsetting its greenhouse gas
emissions including those caused by
travel of staff and funded participants
to UNFCCC conferences.
»» Finally, the active communication of
potential benefits of organizing sus-
•
"The central element in a social contract
on transformation is the constitutive
state with enhanced participation in the
multi-level system of global co-operation. It communicates two aspects often
conceived in a separate or contrary way:
the strengthening of the state actively
setting and clarifying priorities (for instance with bonus-malus solutions) on
the one hand, and improved voting and
participation opportunities and empowerment of citizens (WBGU 2011) on the
other.
The foreseeable social change is underpinned by current socio-scientific theories on society and ideas, above all the
"reflexive modernisation" or the "second
modern age" (Beck/Bonß 2001).
tainable events, coupled with the reporting of the results
achieved, is also an integral part of the secretariat’s sustainability strategy and helps to maximize the transparency of the UNFCCC process.
Rationality and progress reach their limits. Leading ideas are being scrutinised
more critically. Here, a high degree of
tolerance will be required in the future in
order to be able to distinguish between
the real sustainable offers and the mere•
ly allegedly sustainable products.
Sustainability has now grown to become a principle of
planning UNFCCC sessions which greatly helps to minimize
potentially negative impacts but also, given the large number
of stakeholders involved, to concretely influence change by
leaving a positive legacy and inspiring those involved to work
and live more sustainably."
1) As a good practice, the following reports from COP 15/CMP 5 in Denmark are available
online: http://www.e-pages.dk/visitdenmark/469/ (sustainability report) and http://
www.e-pages.dk/visitdenmark/472 (carbon footprint report). Other host countries of past
UNFCCC conferences have also published information on their sustainability efforts; for
instance the Green Event Guideline produced by South Africa, host of COP 17/CMP 7 (see
http://www.cop17-cmp7durban.com/downloads/news/Green-Event-Guideline-Summary-2011.pdf). Qatar, the host of the most recent UNFCCC conference, is currently working on
a carbon footprint report for COP 18/CMP 8.
41
Megatrends | Nachhaltige Entwicklung
The three-pillar model of sustainable
development
The three pillars of sustainability are
described as follows by the study
commission of the Deutsche Bundestag
“Protection of human beings and
environment”:
Ecological sustainability is based mainly
on the original thought not to exploit
nature ruthlessly. A lifestyle that uses
natural living resources only to an extent
that can be regenerated again would be
ecologically sustainable.
Economical sustainability means that a
society should not live beyond its means
since this will necessarily result in losses
to the generations to come. In general, a
way of economic activity will be considered sustainable, if it can be carried out on
a constant basis.
Social sustainability of a state or society
should be organised in a way that the
social tensions are kept in reasonable
limits and conflicts do not escalate but
can be settled in a civil manner.
42
•
Conclusions
Like the market share of organic food
and fair trade products has immensely
increased in many societies, "sustainable
meetings" will be a growing market segment until 2030.
More and more customers expect events
offering an entire range of services in line
with principles of sustainability and providing or even guaranteeing corresponding quality. As customers consider those
principles important, they are willing to
accept moderately higher prices in return.
Government and politicians as well as
players in the industry themselves support the matter of sustainability in the
meeting and conventions industry mainly
by setting internationally accepted quality criteria. These apply to event buildings
(comparable to the current sustainability certificate by the DGNB - German
Sustainable Building Council) and the
event management, for example. Using
such standards and related certificates as
a guidance, customers can better select
destinations and events.
In terms of business economics, investments in the area of energy efficiency
aiming at the "plus energy building" will
still be relevant in the year 2030. Here,
too, internationally comparative rankings
and ratings of numerous other sustainability parameters are of practical importance which can easily be adjusted in line
with the customers’ needs by means of
cloud computing. Therefore, participants
can have the energy consumption of
individual components in various buildings estimated and choose the events to
participate in based on this information.
will result in approaches to sustainably
intelligent mobility concepts.
In connection with the "sustainability"
scale, locations have become more
regionally based — not least due to
keen economic calculation. To meet the
requirement of international linkage,
technologically supported decentralised
event concepts can simultaneously reach
more participants in various places all
over the world.
As part of sustainable development, efficiency strategies and selective measures
» Challenges
» Measures
»» More stringent environmental and social standards
and associated quality criteria, ratings and labels
»» Decentralisation of events
»» Reduction of green washing by means of transparency
and increased attentiveness
»» Persistent positioning of sustainability as a socially
relevant topic in all areas of living
»» Generation of new business models based on sustainability principles within the entire range of services
»» Manifestation of internationally accepted quality
criteria for event buildings and event management,
for example, as a guidance when choosing destinations and events
»» Stronger regional focus for event locations
»» More transparent presentation of sustainable activities in the area of ecology, economy and social affairs
»» Constant further education and training
43
Megatrends | Mobility
MEGATREND
Mobility of the future
44
A high degree of mobility is a primary feature of a modern society.
But the journeys to make and the
distances to span — including those
to participate in meetings and conventions — tend to become longer.
Thus the efforts with regard to
material and energy are constantly
growing. In addition, the expectations towards mobility are increasing: flexibility and individual
availability are desired.
Mobility requires a lot of energy. In
particular the energy demand of traffic
continues to rise globally. In 1950, the
number of cars and lorries was around
70 million worldwide, by the end of 2012
it was more than one billion. Due to its
high energy density, crude oil is presently used as an energy source in over
90 percent of all applications. For some
years, the awareness has been growing
that the crude oil reserves are limited.
While they are running short, the worldwide demand is increasing. Consumers
experience the consequences in the
form of rising energy prices (vzbv 2012).
Motorisation of the world population
and the volume of traffic will continue
to grow until 2030. The central drivers
of this development are the worldwide
population growth and rising incomes
in numerous regions of the world. The
Organization for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD) is expecting a
very dynamic development of the number of cars in China, India, Russia, Brazil,
and Indonesia. For these countries, the
number of cars is predicted to grow by
438 million until 2030. By 2030, the
car density would correspondingly have
multiplied threefold in India, fourfold in
Indonesia and tenfold in China.
Mobility of the future:
multimodal, driven by
co-operation and efficient
modal, driven by co-operation and
efficient (IFK/AIM 2012). Multimodality
means the changing usage of means of
transportation by a person over a certain
period of time. It should allow users
comfortable, resource-optimised and
environmentally friendly locomotion.
Traffic problems such as traffic bottlenecks should be minimised, the efficient
utilisation of existing resources and
infrastructure should be in the centre
of interest. A comprehensive platform
should allow coordinated route and tariff
planning, efficient selection of offers as
well as integrated and secure payment
from one source. In this overall system,
services for the mobility of all user
groups are offered. Traditional means of
transportation in motorised private traffic (car, moped, motorbike, for example)
are included just like those of the local
public transport system, railway, aeroplanes, etc. However, innovative (mobility) services or technologies such as car
sharing, lifts, hired bicycles, segways, or
electric vehicles are also included.
Mobile in a clever way
Another forecast deals with the rationalisation of mobility. In the scientists’
opinion, mobility clusters able to offer
services from one source will increasingly develop. Such service providers that
emerged from "mega co-operations"
will be able to provide services that will
involve both the mobility and infrastructure providers and the public sector. •
There are many ideas for mobility
of the future. What are the factors
and innovations that will shape
the future in your opinion?
"Aside from a central location and the
availability of work force, a good connection
and reachability, i.e. the existing mobility
options, are significant factors when choosing
the location of event centres. However, the
availability of fully integrated multimodal travel
chains allowing users ‘seamless’ mobility using
various carriers in a quick and comfortable way
from any place will also be one of the significant
future innovations."
Dr. Stefan Walter, Managing
Director, House of Logistics &
Mobility (HOLM) GmbH
Mobility in the year 2030 will be multi
45
Multimodality. The ideal means of transportation is available anytime, anywhere.
Individual, efficient, flexible.
Constantly updated travel data
and automatic adjustment
in case of obstructions and
plan variances
All travel options
Ideal itinerary at query time
If we want to remain in motion, we need to come up with ideas. Find fuel
alternatives to the absolutely dominant "crude oil". Develop concepts as
to how resources and infrastructure can be used as efficiently as possible.
What ideas and concrete proposals can we expect from you?
Ulrich Homburg, Member of the Management Board of DB Mobility Logistics AG responsible
for Passenger Transport
"In the meeting and conventions industry, too, the acceptance
of mobility services that do not contribute to the mitigation of
the climate change will decrease constantly. However, locomotion independent of crude oil that does not produce carbon
dioxide is no dream of the future: millions of DB customers
including travellers holding event tickets travel in the longdistance trains with 100 per cent green power. Deutsche Bahn
will further expand their lead in terms of their sustainable
strategy ‘DB 2020’. By 2020, they want to have reduced their
specific carbon emissions by 20 per cent compared to the year
2006 — that is for the entire transport system of people and
goods on rail, on the road, in the air, and on the water. By 2050,
at the latest, the entire rail traffic should be completely free of
CO2 emissions.
Moreover, mobility for event participants will become easier
due to the increasing use of smartphones and mobile Internet.
46
Searching and linking means
of transportation, booking and paying as well as
cleverly organising alternative itineraries in real-time is
already possible today and
should become even easier in the future. The mobility trend of
the future clearly points into the direction of networked mobility. Those who want to significantly shape the mobility market
of the future have to convince customers by means of cleverly
linked mobility services. And here Deutsche Bahn already have
a leading edge due to their interconnected services along the
entire mobility chain, and they want to further build on this
position."
•
Conclusions
Mobility costs for the journey to and
from the event location are a particularly
relevant factor for all participants of
meetings and conventions. This becomes
particularly obvious when costs are rising.
However, duration and comfort of the
journey to the venues also count among
the decisive selection criteria for meetings and conventions. Here, user-friendly
options for switching between the various means of mobility become particularly important and crucial.
Independent orientation during the
journey as well as "navigation" at the
event location is strongly supported by
technological means, mobile devices and
user-friendly applications. This makes
quick and short-term selection from
various mobility options easier, and
adaption to the individually suitable and
preferred combinations is possible. Since
still higher customer expectations with
regard to comfort and service should be
anticipated, differentiated service offers
need to be created here, too, that will
be appropriate for the various target
groups and their economic possibilities.
The development of such multimodal
and forward-looking mobility systems
also requires considerable efforts of cooperation between different players with
diverging interests in addition to financial
and time resources.
DURATION AND
COMFORT OF THE
JOURNEY TO EVENT LOCATIONS COUNT AMONG
THE CRUCIAL SELECTION
CRITERIA FOR
MEETINGS AND
CONVENTIONS.
It will be important to providers and
event planners to actively deal with
the topic of mobility and to define its
position within the multimodal mobility
chain.
» Challenges
» Measures
»» Rising expectations towards mobile services with
regard to flexibility, individuality and permanent availability
»» Increasing mobility and travel expenses due to the
discrepancy between supply and demand in energy
consumption
»» Reduction of the consumption of material and energy
of future mobility services
»» Consideration of health- and age-related restrictions as
older people can participate longer in mobile life
»» Facilitation of the journey to and from event locations
using technological means and mobile devices as well
as multimodal concepts
»» Positioning of event providers and planners as well
as other service providers as active players within the
multimodal mobility chain and development of suitable strategies
»» Creation of a balance between global requirements
and individual mobility needs meeting the criteria of
sustainability
»» Offering tools for optimal planning and configuration
of the journey to and from the event location and
integration of services of mobility service partners
»» Strengthening of quality standards for mobility products and services in Europe and internationally
47
Megatrends | Safety
MEGATREND
Safety
48
Megatrends | Safety
In modern societies, new forms of
prevention and protection will have
developed by 2030. Safety in a broad
sense (both in the sense of "safety"
and of "security") has several dimensions. This section shall emphasise
that complex and highly technological societies react in a particularly
sensitive way to disturbances, such
as power outages or impairment of
other supply systems and infrastructures.
Impact of climate change on
safety
This sensitivity results from the enormous complexity of highly developed
systems depending on the precise functioning of countless interacting factors.
Electrically operated devices have almost
completely penetrated the production
areas as well as life and work environments of modern societies with high
technological standards.
A significant aspect here will be data security when cloud computing and the Internet of Things further extend. Sporadic
or constant hacking or even low-intensity
cyberwars as well as spy activities by
various players may lead to significant
impairment in the areas of communication, payment and mobility especially for
the meeting and conventions industry.
If climate change progresses to the same
extent as before — as predicted by the
IPCC — and extreme weather events occur
more often and intensify, this will have an
impact on infrastructures and the normal
flow of many processes in daily life and
the economy.
Aside from direct effects such as targeted
disruption of specific events, aspects of
safety may influence the willingness to
organise and participate in events.
•
The challenge of data security
In the scope of the Delphi survey, industry experts judged the following
theory with regard to probability and time:
“In event organisation, multi-biometric systems are used, combining
various biometric methods.”
c
When?
12%
25% 25% 38%
12,5%
by 2019
12,5%
by 2030
33,3%
by 2024
4,2%
after 2030
high
medium
low
don’t know / n.s.
49
Megatrends | Safety
Which risks will grow in the future due to the increasing technology
level of events in respect of the trend to make available personal data,
communication and interaction data to the attendees through webbased applications or wireless networks, and what can organisers and
convention centres do to guarantee safety and security?
Dr. Johannes Loxen, CEO SerNet GmbH, Head of Steering Committee Software
at the Federal Association for Information Technology, Telecommunication and New Media
(BITKOM e. V.) and Member of Supervisory Board at DENIC
Event 2.0 – About the
inconveniences of data
processing
But all that has also its drawbacks: a
long track of personal data which is not
restricted to individual visitors but also
includes any kind of relationships with
other people before, during and after the
event; from customers and suppliers,
partners and up to friends. Companies
worrying about industrial espionage
or facilities processing patient data,
which need to be especially protected, or
emphasising the aspect of "trust" in their
business should be equally concerned
about protection of the virtual person
represented by their data as about
physical protection in large gatherings of
people.
of which sensibly depend on the setup
of the IT environment chosen by the organiser beforehand: is the WLAN open or
closed, do persons have to register, or are
login data the same for all users? Were
USB sticks loaded with data and checked
for viruses prior to the event? Will the
disk storage of the modern printers be
securely deleted at the end of the day,
or is it possible to repeat all printouts
and use them without the corresponding
authorisation? Will the data from the
conference intranet be processed according to the provisions of the (German)
data protection law? Did all participants
receive information on the use of their
personal data? Where will the potentially
embarrassing photos from the conference party show up: in Facebook? In the
organiser’s area of responsibility?
The list of questions in the run-up to a
modern IT-aided event is long. The consequences are many. The meeting of all
requirements is called "compliance". The
concrete measures for implementation
are summarised as "governance". Those
two buzzwords have long been hard reality in Germany, as insurers and financing
institutions have silently built a second
line of defence when it is about having
to settle or finance damages in this area
where claims are still rarely asserted.
The liability trap for organisers now also
snaps shut in the area of IT, while they
already feel sufficiently stressed by the
topics of physical fire protection and
escape paths.
In this context, a lot of provisions have
to be complied with, the consequences
How should the matter be handled?
The most important term is "state of
"Today, many attendees to events expect
an IT offer allowing at least low-barrier
internet access, and the choice among
several connection options via wired
(fast!) or wireless devices (convenient!).
Freely available USB sticks or possibilities
to print information are also appreciated.
If personalised information such as the
choice for lunch, the feedback sheets
with prize draw, or the convenient ordering option of materials via a conference
intranet are also available, the participants truly feel at home in the 21st century — including the analysis regarding
"Who with whom" on the Facebook page
the next morning.
50
the art". That state of the art has to be
observed and can be insured. That is:
establish an encoded WLAN, have a data
protection officer review the contracts
and agreements and make spot checks
every half year. Buy printers without a
hard disk. Have USB sticks checked for
viruses and obtain permission for storing
personal data already during the registration process of participants.
What goes beyond is the current "state
of research": novel viruses still unknown,
software planted by malicious IT producers, or simply force majeure may be
accepted, if the limits are known, and
waited out without jeopardising the
existence of event organisers — how
severe and painful the consequences
might ever be.
People need social contact, and in the
year 2030 they will meet in person — but
that will be events integrated in the
constant virtual communication. That is
certain!"
Megatrends | Sicherheit und Bedrohungen
b
51
Megatrends | Safety
Our industry already faces many risks, and they will get
worse. How do you intend to win the participants' trust taking
into account the rising need for security, and how will you
guarantee that your guests feel safe?
Mathias Sondermann, Director Global Events, Programs, SAP AG
"As the organiser of our own events
and participant in external events, the
topic of security is close to our heart.
This is primarily the personal, physical
safety of all our customers, partners,
employees and suppliers for an event,
but it also includes data security,
technical safety, financial safety, and
not least the perceived safety during
and after an event. And to answer part
of the question: unfortunately, there is
no guarantee.
Our security concept begins already
when selecting the destination.
Risk analysis: which potential dangers
are held by the region / city / venue
with regard to the political situation, physical safety (e.g. terrorism),
data protection (can we integrate the
network or operate it together with
a partner?), infrastructure (how safe
are airports, regional public transport,
roads, power supply?), and all event
locations: fair grounds, concert venue,
hotels, etc.)?
Several months prior to an event, a
team is constituted which is regularly
kept up to date and can react if required. This team covers the aspects of
Mobility (transportation and accommodation), Communications (regular and
crisis communication), Legal and HR as
well as Risk & Compliance. Moreover
a crisis management group is established which is prepared and briefed
for crisis, handling crisis management
together with the relevant representatives from the venue, police and fire
brigade. The detailed security concept
is based on risk analysis and takes
52
operative measures: selection of local
service providers, entry and access controls, security sweeps, briefings for the
staff, security hotline, registering of
material and inventory, medical staff,
contact to local authorities, etc.
As those measures are planned and
implemented according to a predefined
standard. But especially important to
us is: to make security palpable for the
participants so that they actually feel
safe. Before, during and after an event.
Many teams are working together to
this end.
Example Strike:
»» Announcement and constant status updates to the participants via
website, e-mail, and social media
using independent sources
»» Planning several scenarios: how
can we bring participants to their
hotels, when taxis are on strike and
the main roads are blocked? Those
measures will then be communicated as well
»» Hotels: active addressing of participants with accommodation in areas on strike, offering them to help
with alternative accommodation
»» F&B: keeping quantities of food
and beverages in stock, in case that
guests cannot leave the location
»» Travel: support with flight booking
and booking changes, and contacting airlines via the website and on
site
Here, the opportunity arises to guarantee the participants an acceptable
event experience during difficult
situations. With good information
management, the participants become
sensitised and will accept small inconveniences. By way of this approach, an
actual disadvantage is turned into an
advantage: with large events, we have
received a lot of positive feedback for
our information politics and measures
taken. We have reached our goal: satisfied and safe customers.
In the future, the importance of social
media for security will certainly increase further. Presently, social media
already represent an important factor
— for both sides: critical situations or
places can be identified faster thanks
to monitoring via social media. Which
roads are affected by strike; is it safe
to have participants take a certain
route? On the other hand, they are
important for giving information to the
participants: please take care, check
your flight connections for cancellations, etc."
Megatrends | Safety
•
Conclusions
In the course of the next two decades,
Germany will face additional challenges.
This will lead to the development of
new forms of prevention and protection.
With the increasing reliance on technology and global linkage, supply systems
and infrastructures become more prone
to interferences, while society becomes
more dependent on their smooth
functioning at the same time — climate
change with extreme weather events
occurring more frequently can cause
problems here.
A new dimension is created due to accelerated digitalisation: the challenges
of data security rise in importance, since
sporadic or constant hacking or even
low-intensity cyberwars may cause
significant impairment especially to the
meeting and conventions industry.
The megatrend of "safety" represents
a particular challenge to the meeting
and conventions industry as the image
of a country or region is very important
to the industry. Whether fears arise will
depend on the perception and affectedness of the participants. And on the fact
whether more or less correct judge-
ment, followed by relevant prevention
and corrective measures occurred — and
whether the arising costs can be born.
For the industry, it is relevant that the
potential guests and participants get a
feeling of low risk, guaranteed safety
and high standards. Nevertheless — or
for this reason — the safety precautions
in the course of the event should not be
disruptive.
OUR COMPLEX, HIGHLY
TECHNOLOGICAL AND
NETWORKED SOCIETY
REACTS IN A PARTICULARLY
SENSITIVE WAY TO
DISTURBANCES.
Although numerous safety issues affect
entire societies and need to be solved by
the competent institutions (in particular
with regard to travelling), the industry
can act in some concrete and immediately safety-relevant areas. These are the
areas of organisation and infrastructure,
building and logistics, communication
security, local environment, but also
preventive measures taken by event
organisers.
» Challenges
» Measures
»» High sensitivity of complex systems in case of natural
disasters or extreme weather events which may lead to
power outages or impairment to other supply systems
and infrastructures with local negative impact
»» Unauthorised access to data, development of
protective measures
»» E
nhancement of resilience by means of data protection measures, for example
»» Adaptation and update of contingency plans
53
Scenarios
"WE NEED MODELS FOR THE FUTURE WHICH DO NOT PAINT GREY AND BLACK
BUT FORMULATE REWARDING GOALS. I WOULD LIKE HUMAN SOCIETY TO TAKE A
MORE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH TO THEIR PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE. INDIVIDUALS
SHALL BE ENCOURAGED IN THEIR IMAGINATION TO MAKE EVEN SMALL CHANGES.
THIS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE THE CONCEPT FOR THE FUTURE."
HANS-PETER DUERR, HEAD OF THE MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR PHYSICS UNTIL 1997
54
Scenarios
Scenarios
Scenarios illustrate possible future situations, painting more or less detailed and descriptive pictures of the
future. Scenarios are hypothetical sequences of events created to draw attention to certain contexts and
necessary decisions. They are frequently used in various forms and in different areas and situations.
55
Szenarien
SCENARIO
Architecture
While the benefits of the Internet have made communication and access to knowhow independent of individual locations, meetings and conventions still have to rely
on central, favourably located destinations — or on buildings with unique features.
56
Scenarios
First meeting and convention
centres with a net zero-energy
standard
By the year 2030, the rising cost of the fossil
fuels oil and gas has increased the pressure
to operate event centres with low energy
consumption or rely on renewable energy
sources exclusively. Ecologically oriented
engineers and architects have achieved technological progress even for such energetically
complex buildings like event centres. The
first meeting and convention centre newly
constructed in 2017 will be able to meet its
power, heating and air conditioning requirements using solely regenerative energies
(net zero-energy standard): It purchases
eco-power and biogas generated from waste
from a natural power dealer, and adds a sophisticated mix of decentrally self-generated
geothermal and photovoltaic energy and
an insulation based on cybernetic principles
where the exit of warmth is regulated at a
SOCIAL TRENDS
ENSURE THAT LARGE
COMPANIES PREFERABLY CHOOSE SUSTAINABLE LOCATIONS
FOR THEIR EVENTS.
few "strategic" points of a building only. For
modernisations of existing buildings, this
net zero-energy standard has been reached
in the period from 2020 to 2024 for the first
time.
Event organisers demand sustainably built / modernised
locations
Event organisers such as large corporations
listed on the stock exchange are looking
for event centres making efficient use of
renewable energies not only for aspects
of costs but they are also subject to the
pressure of institutional investors that
preferably consider sustainable enterprise
strategies as future-proof, low-risk and
profitable in the long term. The pressure
from various sectors of the money market on large companies ensures that they
conduct their events mainly at sustainable
locations. Moreover, the megatrend of •
In the scope of the Delphi survey, industry experts judged the following theory
with regard to probability and time:
“Existing meeting and convention centres are brought to a net zero-energy standard
during their energetic modernisation.”
33%
17%
21%
29%
16,7%
,7%
by 2030
medium
low
8,3%
after 2030
by 2019
4,2%
high
When?
33,3%
33
3%
4,2%
by 2014
by 2024
don’t know /
n.s.
57
Scenarios
FI C TI O N
New orientation of meetings and conventions through special locations and working styles in view of an increasing merge of private and professional life
2030 – Western renaissance:
the second life of "MS Fortuna"
Professor Dr. Zhao Zhang, nanotechnology expert at the University
of Beijing, travelled to a symposium
in the Rhein-Ruhr region following an
invitation by organiser Armin Mueller.
Since the per-capita consumption of
fossil fuels has been strictly limited
in China as well, the professor has
decided to travel with Lufthansa which
is well-known for its modern and particularly energy-efficient fleet. In addition to his assistants, Zhang has taken
his family with him to make a private
journey through Germany directly after
the symposium.
At first, Professor Zhang fears that the
translation programme of his DataWatch had failed since the e-shuttle
driver takes the delegation to a plain
harbour. There is no congress centre
in sight, just a ship of older vintage
named "MS Fortuna" idling in the water.
But shortly afterwards, Armin Mueller
welcomes his guests and asks them
to come aboard. Zhang’s assistants
are excited about the original location
and admire the simple and functional
furnishings as well as the state-of-theart presentation technology: "plug in
and ready to work!"Even before the ship
leaves the harbour, the first multinational working group begins working.
The two junior scientists appreciate the
interdisciplinary style and readiness to
58
debate of the other participants, and
quickly find their top form.
Since Honk, the professor’s wife, is
responsible for social matters in the
province government, the organiser
arranged an additional programme for
which her employer was immediately
willing to grant her a few days of educational leave. While her son and daughter
are ideally looked after, she visits a
multi-generation project at a former
mining town and an industrial facility
later turned into a cultural centre. Given
the virtuously realised concepts for
second usage of buildings, Ms. Zhang
is not surprised that her husband holds
scientific lectures on a former excursion
boat.
The "MS Fortuna" docks several times
to take guests aboard: EU scientists
seize the opportunity to have a personal
talk with Professor Zhang, arriving
via train in an energy-efficient way.
Moreover the professor conducts negotiations with representatives of large
biotechnology companies interested in
his research project: a multi-permeable
membrane which is able to collect even
minimal quantities of energy from the
environment, store and convert them.
Professor Zhang also complied with
the organiser’s request to have one of
his assistants hold a guest lecture and
a one-day workshop at the Rhenanian
Friedrich Wilhelms University Bonn. He
will present new methods for the communication of knowledge, and Professor
Zhang’s team is eager to know how the
European students will perform during
brainstorming in connection with blitz
chess and badminton. The organiser
can also build a good reputation with
this high-quality science camp among
the meeting participants of the next
generation. And not least, it still applies
even in 2030 that scientific careers are
driven by international lectures, sufficient teaching experience and personal
contacts.
The Tai-Chi exercise carried out by visitors in the Rheinaue park in the early
evening triggers amused giggles in
Professor Zhang and his postgraduates.
The hobby kickers or barbecue chefs,
however, are fascinating. Since Armin
Mueller knows the foibles of his Asian
guests for authentic "natives", he has
planned for a local highlight of the final
event beforehand: Football at Schalke
stadium and chips with ketchup and
mayonnaise.
Scenarios
•
sustainability manifests itself in changed requirements claimed by many smaller event
organisers directly looking for sustainably
constructed or modernised venues for their
meetings.
"Industrial society needs to radically
change its way of thinking, directed away
from the mere consumption of available
resources and towards their sustainable
use. For architecture, this means: to design
buildings in a way that they have a maximised useful life."
Christian Helfrich, Architect at David
Chipperfield Architects
Good, timeless buildings at
low costs
By 2030, more and more builders and operators, project controllers and architects will
have turned to new ways of sparing usage
of resources and deceleration, planning for
a long-term use of meeting and convention
centres from the beginning. They preferably employ sustainable, efficiently used,
locally provided materials, natural stones
and home-grown wood. Buildings are rarely
geared towards complying with the current
taste. As the sustainability motto of farsighted builders is: "to build a good, timeless
building at low costs".
Deconstruction and recycling of a building are
integrated in construction planning. Materials such as concrete or steel are mainly used
without mixing materials so that deconstruction can be performed without any problems
later. The space concept is cooperative and
no longer hierarchic, meeting the users’ various needs and desires. It usually consists of
several small, medium-sized and large rooms
which can be flexibly used and combined, if
required. Fixtures depending on maintenance
are deliberately avoided.
Certification systems
become more important
All those innovations in the area of sustainable building are rewarded with higher ratings
by the German Sustainable Building Council
(DGNB) and thus supported. Since the DGNB
began its work in 2009, around 600 buildings
had been certified by the end of 2012. The
DGNB carefully selects and defines specific
certification criteria for individual building
types.
How does a change of
societal values manifest in
the architecture of congress
centres?
"High-quality and extraordinary
architecture has always been important for the marketing of congress
centres. The precursor type of town
halls also had the obligation to
represent duty, wealth, education and
pride of the urban bourgeoisie in an
architectural way. But the perception
of extraordinariness has changed.
While the mere size of a building or
its rich furnishing formerly was often
sufficient to make an impression on
its visitors, the public’s awareness
of values like sustainability, careful
consideration of the landscape and
regional culture, and inventive architectural solutions regarding the usage
of space has been growing lately."
Olaf Pfeifer, Architect
and Architecture Scientist
Auditor Christian Luft: "The DGNB aims to
get the most in sustainability from every type
of building. It takes about one year to develop
a new usage profile since all members of the
new-user body work in an honorary capacity.
This is the reason why convention centres,
for example, have to wait a year for a new
DGNB certificate. Until that time one can
rely on already existing usage profiles. They
may, however, not be optimally suited for the
object to be certified."
It is interesting that the DGNB standard not
only covers ecological criteria but also takes
into account the economic sustainability
and sociocultural qualities of a building.
Such kind of certification certainly gives the
builder a competitive edge. Already for a
long time, solvent purchasers have bought
office buildings at attractive city locations
with certification only. If hotels, event and
congress buildings desire to be booked by
corporations listed on the stock exchange,
certification is a must. For industrial event
organisers, it is particularly important to
communicate the company image with
regard to quality, sustainability and individuality, for example, through the choice of •
59
Scenarios
•
the event location — which should preferably be correspondingly certified.
Daylight, natural air
conditioning and ventilation
as wellness factors
foyers but also large meeting rooms be
flooded with daylight. The megatrend
of health and the process of refinement
have led to a development away from
large, artificially lighted halls and towards
flexibly usable rooms with natural daylight.
The requirements of the participants with
regard to comfort and a sense of wellbeing within a building will be extremely
high in 2030. Since 2020, the majority
of guests expect that not only the entry
In 2030, it has been state of the art for
some time to carry out a thermo-dynamic simulation and daylight simulation
already at an early planning stage. This
way, planning can take into account early
where sunlight can be used as heating
source, where a lot of heat is created by
visitors, etc. The simulated entry of daylight is also used for optimal assignment
of rooms and for facade design so that
the consumption of electrical energy for
lighting can be reduced. This has an impact on the visitors’ wellbeing who often
judge the quality and also the functionality of architecture by the high volume of
daylight allowed to enter the building.
theories with regard to probability and time:
“Project development with thermodynamical simulation (heating by means of sunlight
radiation, waste heat, etc.) is state of the art.”
c
25%
12,5%
42% 17%
12% 29%
When?
high
medium
low
don’t
know /
n.s.
by 2019
by 2014
20,8%
by 2024
8,3%
by 2030
“Meeting and convention centres meet their power, heating and air conditioning
requirements by means of regenerative energies exclusively.”
c
8,3%
42% 25%
8%
25%
by 2014
When?
60
medium
low
don’t
know /
n.s.
by 2019
29,2%
by 2024
high
20,8%
8,3%
by 2030
Scenarios
Aside from daylight and view, the quality of
the air in the rooms is an important wellness
factor. Natural air conditioning ("controlled
air supply") has been a long introduced
standard in 2030. Visitors not only have
a sensible perception of natural light and
natural air conditioning but also a refined
awareness of sustainable architecture,
careful consideration of the landscape and
regional culture, and a preference for inventive architectural solutions regarding the usage of space. Additional financial investment
by the builders in high-quality architects’
competition and a certification process accompanying the construction can amortise
just by the fact that the completed, aesthetically attractive and functional building will
be especially appreciated by participants and
event organisers alike.
lar from the outside, attracting visitors, but
are they really suitable for holding repeated
meetings and conventions? Since the requirements of the constantly developing
science society regarding congress buildings
are subject to ever more rapid change, congress buildings are deliberately designed for
a reduced useful life of 10 to 15 years also in
2030. The ecologically oriented architecture
professor Guenter Pfeifer appreciated that
development already in 2013: "If a building
can be simply deconstructed and recycled
after 15 years, this can also be regarded as
sustainable building."
Formerly used building materials the components of which have proved hazardous to
health still emerge time and again in 2030.
Centres certified according to the DGNB
standard have a competitive edge in that
situation; they are even able to attract more
health-conscious guests and event organisers by referring to the low-pollutant air in the
centre.
From 2020 German meeting and convention centres have embraced this situation an
opportunity, and since then have been seen
the world over as industry pioneers regarding
barrier-free accessibility. Clarity, transparency
and reliability for older and also handicapped
guests at their arrival and when attending
meetings and conventions are of special
relevance to the organisers.
ACCESSIBILITY WILL
GAIN IN IMPORTANCE
IN THE FUTURE.
German society is, in
particular, characterised by
demographic change in the
developed countries
Buildings with alternative
uses as popular exotics
Other event organisers and participants are
searching for diversion, convention locations
characterised by individuality, emotionality and authenticity. Here, it seems logical
to open up buildings from earlier times for
the meeting and conventions industry at
least temporarily. In addition to the deliberately unspecific modern congress centres,
such unusual locations possessing a patina
and their own history extend the range of
meeting options. At the same time, such
buildings contribute to a regional profile and
a particular image.
Temporary, recyclable
congress buildings to meet
new requirements
In the age of advanced internet, pictures
reduced to logos have gained a lot in importance in the building industry as well.
"In particular young architects often tend
to develop a new building not for its future
function but with an image identity in
mind."Their buildings may really be spectacu-
61
Scenarios
SCENARIO
Transfer of knowledge
Against the background of increasing complexity of the living and working environments and the social circumstances, the acceleration of numerous development
processes and the world-wide growing volume of knowledge, the need for adequate
conducive spaces for the transfer of knowledge is increasing. Given the trends of
individualisation, globalisation, demographic change and a knowledge society, this
need should have reached another peak by 2030.
62
Scenarios
Rising pressure to perform
To an even higher degree than anticipated
today, the pressure to perform will probably rise, blurring the boundaries between
professional and private life. Lifelong
learning, gaining intercultural knowledge,
and constant availability are requirements
taking many people to their limits and
even beyond. Various forms of working
time reductions and flexible job models
(including sabbaticals) may provide relief
here.
New forms and possibilities to
acquire knowledge
Diverse methods for acquiring knowledge
will complement the traditional forms.
This includes the employment of most
different technologies and tools, mainly
new developments during virtual conferences, but also countless individual forms
of gaining knowledge: almost all universities offer Massive Open Online Courses
(MOOC), for example. This special kind of
online courses for a great number of participants has been able to take hold within
only a few years. In times of business
economic pressures and calculations, this
digitalisation of teaching is an important
and innovative method for the transfer of
knowledge for many universities.
Aside from English as the internationally
dominant conference language, there
are second languages such as Chinese,
Hindi and Spanish which are spoken in
large regions. Due to the largely advanced
translation technology, application is possible without any problems.
The older generation is increasingly taken
into account and can influence the topics and the layout of event formats to a
higher degree, since it represents the majority of the population. The emergence
of various quality seals and certifications,
and the setting of standards for various
aspects, will be an important trend in this
context.
Hybrid events and measured
employment of technology
Apart from this dichotomy of "High Tech"
(handling of technology) and "High Touch"
(dealing with people), the topic of the next
two decades for the majority of events
will be how to adequately employ technology. Depending on the format, function
and audience of an event, the increasingly
convergent segments of stage technology,
lighting, acoustics, presentation and translation technology as well as interactive and
feedback options (voting and gaming, for
example) need to be applied and utilised in
a well-measured manner. For this purpose,
the desires of customers and participants
need to be anticipated as exactly as possible in order to be able to address the
individual technical, service-related and
dramaturgical requirements and to make
corresponding proposals. A good technological infrastructure needs to be established allowing the use of various media
and event technologies without causing
much friction or problems to the users.
BY THE YEAR 2030,
MOBILE APPLICATIONS
WILL HAVE CERTAINLY
ALSO PENETRATED THE
LIVING ENVIRONMENT
OF OLDER PEOPLE TO A
HIGHER DEGREE THAN IT
IS THE CASE TODAY.
By the year 2030, mobile applications will
have certainly also penetrated the living
environment of older people to a higher
degree than it is the case today. Thus, a
certain familiarity with the handling of •
Scenario: Enhanced Individuals
An extreme example applying to a minority only but getting more and
more popular in certain social environments are implants. They are
supposed to enhance the cognitive skills and perception of people. The
carriers of such implants are called "Enhanced Individuals" which some
people object to. For various reasons, they do not want to disclose their
artificially acquired skills. With some job descriptions, however, disclosure is expected, which leads to enormous legal and insurance-related
issues.
63
Scenarios
•
technology may be assumed. Predominantly
user-friendly mobile and context-adaptable
user interfaces for man-machine systems
will be widely used. Nevertheless, the application of new technologies will probably
require higher educational efforts to allow
the participants to handle new tools in an
efficient and responsible way.
The typical time-related distribution pattern
of innovations should still be applicable
which states that certain technical applications become widely used only after several
years. Event organisers tend to rely on already proven solutions and not so much on
state-of-the-art technologies which might
cause irritation with the participants.
Face-to-face: flexible formats
and current references
Meetings mainly serve to get acquainted,
exchange information and experiences,
establish contact and links with people in
various functions and with various potential.
This can be intensified or technologically •
Which types and structures of events will we see in the future
instead of traditional conferences and conventions? What must
the meeting and convention industry do to be prepared for these
changes?
Adrian Segar designs and facilitates participant-driven and participation-rich
events. He is the author of the book "Conferences That Work: Creating Events
That People Love", published at Conferences That Work, Marlboro, Vermont
• www.conferencesthatwork.com
In the future we’ll see events that concentrate more on supporting meaningful connections between attendees and less
on broadcast content. As useful content becomes increasingly
available online, meetings need to concentrate on what they
do best: allowing people to meet, connect, and engage.
We’ll also see participant-driven event formats like "Open
Space" and "Conferences That Work" replacing traditional
event formats. Today people learn most of what they need to
do to do their job from their peers, not in the classroom. Our
events need to mirror this new reality. In addition, conference
sessions will include much more attendee participation and
less lecturing. Session designs will incorporate what we’ve
known for a long time: people learn better when they participate in their learning rather than passively listen.
An increasing number of meetings will be hybrid events. The
advantages of including those who cannot physically attend
are many, and the relevant technology is becoming easier to
apply and manage.
The meeting industry must prepare for these changes. Venues
will be asked to provide different kinds of spaces from the
past. Compared with traditional events of the same size, par-
64
ticipatory conferences require more large rooms and a greater
number of nearby small rooms for intimate breakout sessions.
Venues will also need to handle the demand for new room
sets. No more new auditoriums or classrooms with fixed seating! New conference formats require moveable lightweight
flexible seating, preferably with casters so that participants
can move between large group and small group activities.
Tables will be used less as they get in the way of interactions
between attendees.
Reliable internet access, with appropriate bandwidth available for attendee needs, will become as important as food and
drink. Build the cost into your budget!
Finally, be prepared for a switch in event staffing. The demand
for skillful meeting session facilitators will grow, replacing
some speakers and emcees.
Scenarios
F I C TI O N
Enhancing the attractiveness of meetings and conventions by means of
sustainability, reduction and inclusion
Sustainable locations for sustainable
transfer of knowledge: less is more
"Why do I have to attend a congress
in the sticks?", grumbles Jane Fast,
reporter of a renowned science
magazine for history and art. "Clay
Town 3000, consequently barrier-free
ecological construction, post-urban
locations and renunciation of the
digital overkill...", she contemptuously quotes the description from the
congress materials. "This just means:
old people, itchy bedding, no mobile
network connection, purely Stone
Age, and carrots to eat."But both the
topic of "Limits of cryptology" and
the list of international speakers
promise a very interesting programme. Thus, Jane packs a vintage
note pad and pen, and takes off.
From the small provincial railway station, the organiser — in cooperation
with the local railway network operator — offers a handcar shuttle to the
meeting location. Together with other
participants, Jane pedals forcefully. To
the amused pleasure of all passengers,
a wheelchair user loudly encourages his
personal assistant. In a casual atmosphere, first contacts are made, and Jane
even forgets to make a last phone call.
At first, she finds the guest houses
arranged in a star-layout around the
round congress hall and connected by
small roofed runways very Spartan, but
then has to admit that the modular
concept of simple buildings intended
for temporary use has been very successfully implemented. And within the
buildings, every square centimetre has
been optimally utilised.
Jane is clearly excited about the round
congress building constructed with
wood and glass. Daylight is allowed to
enter through large windows, and due
to the natural building materials, the
indoor climate is comfortable. Slightly
inclined ramps connect the individual
levels, which not only benefits older
and handicapped participants but also
furthers communication: the wide
hallway inevitably leads to encounters
and joint walks. The participants get to
talking, wide steps serve as seating.
suppliers for the catering exclusively,
so that top quality throughout the year
and planning reliability for farmers and
processing companies is guaranteed.
Thanks to its cone shape, the lecture
hall offers excellent acoustics and an
optimal sight of the speaker even from
the rows in the back. For a good reason:
not only the participants are offline,
but also the lecturers speak without
the usual technical means. A challenge
that is mastered by many of them with
humour and spirit. Instead of uninspiring lectures read by the script, they are
really performing. Interposed questions
are explicitly asked for, the audience
is getting involved through stand-up
role plays, and small experiments
complement the package of a versatile
transfer of knowledge.
In lounge-like niches, workshops are
held, and selected lecturers like the
Swiss Wyss, emeritus professor for
ancient languages, invite for face-toface discussions. Jane even takes part
in a gaming. Teamed up with a Swedish
journalist and a young Arab, a secret
message needs to be deciphered. After
correct decryption, the code gives
directions to the abundant, seasonally and regionally oriented buffet. As
she learns, the organiser uses local
65
Scenarios
DURING BREAKS,
THE PARTICIPANTS
GET ANIMATED TO
PERFORM COMMON
PLAYFUL AND
VITALISING RITUALS
OFFERING FUN AND
REFRESHING MIND AND
BODY ALIKE.
• supported using initial phases with
speed dating or special introductory rounds,
for example. This serves for breaking the
ice and establishing a positive constructive and open atmosphere (willingness to
absorb information and give information).
On the other hand the following becomes
clear: Who do I have to deal with? Are there
especially interesting persons among the
participants?…
Contrary to the usual methods used during
conferences, situation- and attendee-specific formats could be applied and then —
taking into account current developments
in connection with the subject of the event.
Event organisers are mainly responsible to
arrange the framework of the event and —
among other things, by employing suitable
hosts — to make sure that the participants
fit into this framework. Open-space conferences or BarCamps offer their services
mainly in the area of self-organised transfer of information and knowledge.
The availability of flexible infrastructures
for space and technology is an inevitable
prerequisite for events of this kind. Given
the accelerated course of everyday work
which can be mastered only barely, many
meetings and conventions also serve for
exchanging information in an unhurried
way and conducting more serious and systematic discussions. This is almost impossible under everyday working conditions.
Some formats combine scientific and
political events with sessions focussed on
psychosocial regeneration. The goal is to
address, strengthen and vitalise all senses.
Which forms and structures will replace the
classic meetings and conventions in the future,
and which prerequisites need to be created by
service providers in the meeting and conventions
industry?
"The digital age is characterised by an extremely easy accessibility of knowledge and information through the Internet
as well as networking via social media. For this reason,
conferences and similar events are facing entirely new
challenges: going beyond the exchange of information or
the transfer of knowledge, events need to offer options for
community building and true collaboration. Modern participants are very well informed and cannot be convinced by
means of classroom lectures or product pitches any more.
They rather expect answers to their individual questions and
want to discuss with other participants as well as with the
speakers about experiences and approaches in order to be
able to benefit mutually. For this purpose, formats with an
open structure have to be created, allowing interaction and
participation.
To sustainably create communities for certain topics in the
course of an event, the corresponding digital rooms need to
be provided in addition to innovative formats. This requires
digital tools and platforms to allow the participants to network already prior to the event and collaboratively use knowledge and contacts afterwards as well. The enhancement of
66
Claudia Brückner, Event Concepter, www.claudiabrueckner.de
the physical event room by a digital one can occur not only
before and after an event, however, but also in parallel, in
order to involve interested persons who cannot be present
physically. Given such possibilities, event managers increasingly become community managers. They get the chance to
sustainably built a community — not only through a specific
topic but also by their specific approach and the experience
they shape — and at the same time develop a corresponding
business model."
Scenarios
Experience has shown that this has a positive impact on concentration, creativity and
productivity of the meeting and convention attendees. The following trend which
initially was observed during meetings for
younger people will probably have taken
hold widely by 2030: during breaks, the
participants get animated to perform common playful and vitalising rituals offering
fun and refreshing mind and body alike. As
a matter of course, such rituals are adapted
to the participants' age and physical fitness.
Participants (including speakers) travelling a
long way to attend meetings and conventions are offered to bring their partners
or families to avoid being constantly
separated. Special accompanying offers or
exclusive visitor programmes in companies
and with experts are offered to this end.
This enhances the attractiveness of events
even if the attendees need to make long
journeys.
Personal meetings with
lecturers and selected
personalities
To increase the "added value" of personal
participation in an event, there will be the
option of applying for a personal meeting or consultation with selected speakers when registering for the event at an
early time (paying a premium, if required).
Individual participants would be given
the opportunity to discuss specific issues
directly with selected experts during short
time windows. For speakers, the incentive
would be a higher compensation and / or
the higher probability of a new assignment.
When exploiting the technological potential
in the area of holographic 3D projection, the
selected personalities and experts do not
even need to be present in person.
Depending on the number of participants
interested, small or large areas of the
meeting room can be separated by means
of various lighting scenarios, for example, where the selected experts, including
potential objects of demonstration, can be
displayed as large as life and addressed.
Local embedding
THE GOAL IS TO ADDRESS, STRENGTHEN
AND VITALISE ALL SENSES. THIS HAS A POSITIVE
IMPACT ON CONCENTRATION, CREATIVITY
AND PRODUCTIVITY OF THE MEETING AND
CONVENTION ATTENDEES.
In order to ensure high and constant use
to capacity of the expensive buildings and
rooms as well as to strengthen the local
and regional embedding (which should be
highly appreciated in view of sustainability efforts), event organisers also open up
towards smaller organisations and institutions (associations, schools, etc.) which had
not been addressed so far. For this purpose,
special offers and scheduled events are
created.
67
Scenarios
SCENARIO
Technology
The increasing use of technology at meetings and conventions and the changing
needs of their attendees have led to the introduction of novel event concepts by
2030. Strict rules and fixed locations are abandoned to the benefit of flexibility.
68
Scenarios
Events increasingly become places of
communication. Attractive environments meeting the specific requirements not only enhance the efficiency
but also the effectiveness of meetings
and conventions. Ultimately, powerful
technological equipment of the event
locations and technological support
for all processes in all phases of value
creation — starting with preparation, execution and through to follow-up — are
decisive criteria for successful events.
Particularly meetings of highly political
significance are supported by the application of selected security technologies.
Not least, the usage of novel technologies and the establishment of innovative processes are the basis for many
new business models in the meeting
and conventions industry.
Concepts of decentralised
events
In 2030, various technologies for supporting decentralised event concepts are
available to the organisers of meetings and conventions. This enhanced
approach has proved successful for the
national and international economy
in particular, but also for the increasingly globalised area of politics. In 2030,
decentralised concepts are applied
especially for meetings and conventions
that accompany trade shows — and
often on an international scale. For this
purpose, innovation-oriented megacities
in the U.S.A., Asia and Europe are often
included as event partners.
The professional and reliable collaboration of the German players with other
countries has enhanced the status of
Germany as a whole and intensified
existing cooperations. Extending the
concepts towards globally distributed
decentralised structures not only reflects
the innovation-oriented needs of economy and politics but also their obligation
to meet the sustainability requirements
in social and ecological matters. As part
of decentrally organised events, not only
various locations all over the world but
also virtual rooms are connected.
A factor for the success of decentralised
event concepts is the establishment of a
guiding concept which coordinates the individual parts of the event taking place at
different locations and in the virtual room,
constantly matches them with the greater
meeting and convention goals, and brings
together the players involved in terms of
contents and communication.
Use of technologies during
preparation, execution and
follow-up
The extended use of technologies in the
meeting and conventions industry especially leads to an enhanced interaction
between the bearers of knowledge and
experience. Modern technologies support personal contact and the possibility
of exchanging information between
all persons involved. This applies to all
stages of events: from preparation, over
execution, through to follow-up.
The preparation stage of meetings and
conventions has been substantially
appreciated by the use of new technologies. This is true not only with regard to
the attraction of participants but also
for the entire concept of the event. It is
no longer sufficient to plan and execute
an event the traditional way. The new
generation of people who have grown
up with social media expects to receive
a large part of the information already
in the run-up to the event. At the same
time people expect that their individual
interests and skills are strongly taken
into account. In 2030, the stakeholders
relevant to the event are involved in the
selection and prioritising of event topics
and locations as well as in the planning
for the framework programme using
modern collaboration solutions. A series
of technology-supported services has
proved useful allowing access to selected
information with regard to topics and
participants. Background information,
key activities and interests of the potential virtual and physical participants are
provided, for example. At a predefined
time, proposed additional items to
the planned key topic of the event are
matched and finalised ("reality check").
Virtually and physically
As a rule, events with on-site attendance are enhanced by virtual elements,
which leads to various combinations of
"hybrid events" dominating the market.
Dialogue will be in the centre of such
events even in 2030. During an event,
the audience is actively involved based
on innovative technologies, submitting
information, planning activities, and
gathering data. But networking of the
participants is technologically supported
as well: both with regard to planned
and carefully prepared networking, and
with regard to organising spontaneous,
unreckoned connections. Communication
on site correlates with the communication in the virtual room. This requires
the organisational, content-related
and technical matching of individual
elements, and primarily the planning of
physical and virtual units which has to be
integrated from the beginning.
OLED — the two-dimensional
light source
The assessments by the technology
experts interviewed of the probability of
a future distribution of 3D projections,
multibiometric systems and OLED’s in
the meeting and conventions industry
differ greatly. The probability is high
that OLEDs will be widely applied and
also used in the industry. Regarding the
period of distribution, over 40 per cent
of the persons interviewed suspect that
OLEDs will be widely used by 2019 at the
latest. For 3D projectors, probability is
assessed less high, but over 60 per cent
of the persons interviewed think
•
69
Scenarios
FI C TI O N
Decentralised congress locations and efficient use of technology
Welcome to the holodeck:
Here, the world is communicating!
Ever shorter intervals for groundbreaking medical diagnostics and
therapy options require a timely
training of medical professionals.
This is the reason why Education
Enterprises has specialised in education conventions for the health sector
already early. Review and evaluation
of scientific publications and research
series are performed constantly. Thus,
project manager Samuel Baier knows
at an early time that a novel operation procedure for geriatric surgery
is almost ready to be marketed and
renowned clinics are already waiting
for corresponding training. The time is
right to organise a convention on this
topic.
At the beginning of the 2020ies,
preparation of scientific congresses is
significantly facilitated by using the
Semantic Web: while the World Wide
Web just links data, the Semantic Web
allows targeted linking of meanings
and their processing by a computer,
which independently interprets and
further processes the information
thereby generating new contents.
The Semantic Web and the use of convergent technologies make search work
easier for Samuel Baier, which significantly reduces the preparation time for
meetings. Shortly after his enquiry via
the language assistant, Samuel Baier
70
receives a list of high-quality lecturers
selected by their awards, sociocultural
background and audience rating. On
the Lightboard — a high-resolution,
ultra-thin display made to measure for
his office walls — locations for national
face-to-face conventions on the predetermined date are proposed, sorted
by capacities and technical equipment. After choosing the locations and
confirming the booking, Baier invites
his favourite lecturers for a kick-off
meeting: Professor Neubert and the
American McAtee are old acquaintances, Professor Xiping is needed as
a magnet for the Asian professional
audience. Confidently, Baier introduces Professor Sara Akhondy to the
illustrious round. The Chief Physician
of the Tehran University Clinics shows
excellent holo-grams of complicated
neck of femur fractures and immediately agrees to train colleagues in the
novel operation technique live on the
holodeck.
Baier forwards the convention script
enhanced by 3D picture material to the
marketing department. Aside from a
portal where the event is published
to be seen by all clinics or hospitals
of any size, designers create a colour
concept for the OLED panels as well
as a sound and fragrance CI in order
to add the corresponding atmosphere
to all advertising materials — and to
the decentralised convention locations in particular. Comprehensive data
protection is established in parallel:
access rights to personal and professional information comply with the
international Privacy Guideline and
are granted depending on the type
of booking — physical attendance or
virtual attendance.
During the convention, Samuel Baier
selects the camera pictures of the convention locations for live transmission
from the control room and enhances
discussions by introducing virtual
experts and posing specific questions
from the Web Community.
At the same time, follow-up of the
convention starts: an excerpt is distributed via open source, the in-house
scientific publisher publishes the
convention results as e-book. Samuel
Baier notes that a large number of
orders originate from small hospitals
and considers the thought to choose
a typical country doctor topic for the
next convention.
Scenarios
•
that the probability of distribution will
be medium or high. The time of expected
implementation, however, is assumed to
be far into the year 2030. The probability
of distribution of multibiometric systems
in the meeting and conventions industry
is assessed even lower: only 12.5 per cent
of the responders consider the probability
to be high. The time of implementation is
expected to be near 2024 by a third of the
persons interviewed, but the variation is
wide here as well.
In the area of lighting concepts, OLEDs (Organic Light-Emitting Diodes) will have taken hold as widely used standard by 2030.
This two-dimensional light source emits
soft and largely non-glare light without
sharp shadows as required at many event
locations. As OLEDs are extremely thin and
lightweight — with a thickness of less than
500 nanometres, which is around 100 times
thinner than a human hair — they form the
basis for completely novel applications on
walls, wallpaper or in furniture and fabrics.
OLEDs are used as luminous areas, forming
direction signs at event centres or hotels,
for example. Part of the windows — espe-
cially at large event centres — completely
consist of OLED panels. If turned off, they
allow looking outside, turned on, they emit
light in any desired colour and colour temperature, while at the same time protecting
the interior of the meeting and convention
centre from views from the outside. OLEDbased lighting scenarios also support the
formation of subject-specific islands which
are often created spontaneously at meetings and conventions. In addition, so-called
co-working spaces offer sound-insulated
glass telephone boxes, service points and
meeting areas.
AS OLEDS ARE
EXTREMELY THIN
AND LIGHTWEIGHT,
THEY FORM THE
BASIS FOR COMPLETELY NOVEL APPLICATIONS ON WALLS,
WALLPAPER, OR IN
FURNITURE AND
FABRICS.
Science Fiction
In 2030, the holodecks known from Science Fiction are used as simulated 3D
environment in some event formats. This
way, topics are made more palpable for all
participants: virtual objects, such as balls
or wooden blocks, can be touched with the
hands on the holodeck. Objects which are
actually not real can be touched, thrown
back and forth, piled one over the other. Lecturers who are not physically present are involved in the event using 3D projection. •
theory with regard to probability and time:
“Organic Light-Emitting Diodes (OLED’s) have taken hold as the new
generation of lighting. The light saves energy and can be generated
in various hues and shapes.”
c
When?
50% 25%
0%
25%
20,8%
12,5%
by 2024
by 2014
29,2%
high
medium
low
don’t know /
n.s.
by 2019
8,3%
by 2030
4,2%
after 2030
71
Scenarios
•
For the attendees, the illusion is generated that they are in the same room with
the speaker or the objects demonstrated
during the lecture. This supports the trend
towards a smaller size of meeting and
convention formats. Accordingly, more
experts who make only brief contributions
can be involved. This can also be decided
spontaneously, when participants need
further and more specific information or
clarification, for example.
On the fly
Follow-up of meetings and conventions is
supported by the use of new technologies
as well. In principle, minutes of meeting
are created directly during the event and
made available in real time. Depending on
the character of the event, this is carried
out via a "closed shop" or freely accessible
for all persons interested. During followup, findings from the event are validated,
corrected or amended, if required, via
a web-based communication platform.
Such platforms are not only contentrelated storage spaces for knowledge but
You say that meeting and
convention attendees will no
longer want to be quiet recipients in fixed seating rows in
the future but will advance to
become networked active players. What are the indicators
for such change? And which
challenges do you see for the
meeting and conventions
industry?
"The role image at meetings, seminars,
and conventions is going through a
radical change. Participants actually do
no longer want to be quiet recipients in
fixed seating rows. They wish to be offered options to be able to make comments, assessments, and to actively
participate. Digitalisation and the large
number of technical innovations have
strongly altered the communication
habits of modern individuals and thus
also their expectations with regard to
communication platforms and media.
This especially applies to the Internet
and its activation for the everyday use
of social networks and mobile devices.
The challenge for meetings and conventions is not just to react on this
change but to take advantage of it.
Many online, social media and mobile
tools are used during meetings already
today. But the development possibilities have not been exhausted
by far. Innovation potential not only
lies with the hardware but with the
72
Thomas Frenzel, Milla & Partner GmbH
development of holistic, networked
concepts in particular. This requires
discipline-spanning collaboration.
This collaboration functions well at an
in-house innovation lab where media
designers, software developers and
scenographers perform joint research
and development. Therefore, communication options may open up, going
far beyond the traditional commenting
and evaluating. In the future, the point
will be to create new and intelligent
interfaces in order to filter the contents
of an event according to individual interests and combine them to generate
new results. And the goal is what we
call "interconnection": to bring together
people with similar interests to allow
them to exchange information and
experiences, jointly develop new ideas,
and to make a difference together. We
see visitors, speakers and organisers as
active elements of a networked world
where they interact before, during and
after the meeting.
Such interconnective concepts may
enhance the quality of meetings and
conventions with regard to all important criteria: relevance of the contents,
acquisition of knowledge, team building or matching of participants, quality
of the dialogue, and the organisational
course of events. Embedded in a good
scenographic concept, they can effectively initiate and accompany communication processes."
Scenarios
3D
In the scope of the Delphi survey, industry experts judged the following theory
with regard to probability and time:
“3D projectors provide plastic and true-to-reality full-colour images.
The result are three-dimensional light figures: holograms”
c
When?
25%
38%
12%
25%
20,8%
0,8%
by 2019
20,8%
by 2030
29,2%
high
medium
also central places of communication and
interconnection of all persons involved.
Based on swarm intelligence via the web,
mainly the event locations frequented by
political or economic top personalities are
controlled and secured. In the scope of
the extended security concept, the water
infrastructure, for example, moves into
the centre of attention: small robot fish
used in the drinking water system independently communicate with each other
using a web-based software in order to
identify and assess changes of the water
quality which might be hazardous to
health. In case of certain value patterns
or value clusters, measures to clean the
water are taken or an alarm is triggered.
low
don’t know /
n.s.
by 2024
flexibilisation. Thus, the organisers are
facing high requirements with regard to
their technical skills. As a consequence,
a specialised service segment for the use
of convergent technologies at meetings
and conventions has become established.
New service segments
Surprise effects serving to generate
emotions in the participants are still an
essential part of meetings and conventions. The requirements with regard to
the planning and coordination of meetings and conventions have grown given
the increasing use of technology and
73
Summary
74
Summary
Summary of Study Results
This study has a broad sociological and multidisciplinary foundation that includes
a wide range of experiences and perspectives in and outside of the industry.
The intent was to avoid overrating individual popular trends and losing sight of
the whole picture, the realities and probabilities. To make realistic assessments,
it is necessary to look at the many factors and phenomena as well as their
interactions and dynamics.
75
Summary
RR The Most Important Results:
RR The study shows that options
In his book Megatrends, John Naisbitt refers to continuous tension between various
forces and trends. Concerning the use of
new technologies, he points out that, even
with all the new technological options and
applications, human beings have to be considered - with all their desires and abilities,
fears and preferences desires. This is why
he speaks of re-balancing the relationship
between „high tech“ and „high touch,“ the
concrete use of new technology and, at the
same time, the need for human and social
contact and awareness of human needs.
This will mean combining communication
technologies such as „cloud computing“
with building technology and the „Internet of Things and Services,“ holography
for the visualization of presentations (in
integrated wellness sequences), meeting
preparation and follow-up or opinion polls
using innovative visualization techniques.
Select megatrends were defined to illustrate these developments. In the online
survey, industry experts rated the following megatrends as especially relevant:
In the next two decades the „human measure“ (Albert Schweitzer)
will still be an important guideline
for processes of change.
such as knowledge transfer,
technology and architecture will
increase in use in the meetings
and will supplement previous
formats and concepts.
What social megatrends do you think will seriously influence and challenge
the meetings industry in the medium term?
(Online survey question)
Technology
41.6
Globalisation
28,.6
Mobility
26.0
Sustainability
20,8
Demographic Change
18.2
Security
10,.4
32.5
Peak Everything
10,4
40.3
Urbanisation
3.9
22.1
Feminisation
2.6
24.7
Figures in % n=77
76
very strongly
27.3
7.8
39.0
10.4
37.7
14.3
36,4
20,8
51.9
strongly
10.4
26.0
22.1
36.4
40.3
less strongly
not at all
don’t know
not specified
Summary
»» Technology in Work and Life
»» Globalisation and Internationalisation
»» Demographic Change, Feminisation and
Diversity
»» Mobility of the Future
»» Sustainable Development
demand for collaboration technologies
such as Audio- and video conferences, digital whiteboards, visualisers, shared views,
shared applications or holodecks.
Technology will specifically shape and challenge the meetings industry by 2030. The
Internet, social media and mobile devices
are the sources of this transformation.
contribute to communication and
collaboration in groups separated by time and/or distance will
become more important for future
meetings and conferences.
RR A majority of people in the
Various locations around the world and
virtual rooms will be linked with each other
during decentralised events. The success
of these concepts depends on a central
concept in order to coordinate the event
elements in different locations and virtual
spaces, adjust them to the meeting and
convention goals and communicate with
everyone involved.
Organisers of meetings and conventions
already use a variety of technologies to
collect feedback.
industrial countries will potentially have access to almost all
information almost always.
In the „Internet of Things,“ it will be possible to identify, localise and steer not only
data, but also many devices and everyday
objects directly through the Internet. This
will have a significant effect on the organization of meetings and conventions. It will
open up the way for completely new models
of organization and division of labor.
RR Virtual meetings - spread
around the whole world - will
theoretically be possible.
„Rooms will have to be arranged for accommodating ‚virtual‘ speakers who don‘t
want to travel long distances.“ (Stefan
Rief, Fraunhofer IAO) But virtualisation
also opens up new questions: How much
presence and how many integration and
communication services are necessary to
achieve meetings and conventions?
RR In sum, the use of various
technologies will lead to event
formats lasting longer.
SUMMARY
THE INCREASING PREVALENCE OF TECHNOLOGY WILL GREATLY
AFFECT AND CHALLENGE THE MEETINGS
INDUSTRY.
RR Need-based systems that
RR It is very likely that interactive
events will become more important or even one of the central
success factors in the future.
The integration and involvement of participants - that is, the integration of knowledge, participant experience and expectations of the meeting or convention can
be improved during events. Future event
formats will be required to take the place
of today‘s normal lecture style or supplement it with active participation. People
at meetings and conventions will probably
use their own mobile devices to contribute
to the interaction, running and management of events.
Ideally, meetings and conventions will be
preceded by an intensive customer-oriented introductory phase and concluded with
a professional follow-up which includes all
participants who were actively involved.
The internationalisation of science and
economics will lead to increased networking needs and expenses for all organisations involved.
RR With increasing use of
This also accelerates the technisation of
the meetings. There will be an increasing
Graphic design of technical features such
as screens or displays, entry type and pro-
technology, an essential condition
for successful future meetings
and conventions will be the
provision of „anthropomorphic“
human-machine interfaces for
technical systems that can obtain
usable information from users‘
contextual and often vague input.
b
77
Environmental Standards
Depletion of
Natural Resources
New Social Standards
Transparency through the Internet
Modernisation Needs
Peak Everything
thingg
Sustainabililty
Demographic
Change
Urbanisation
Feminisation
Individualisation
Respect and Tolerance
More Competitiveness
Aging Society
New Life and Work
Forms
Change in Values
78
Need for Flexibility
Rising Energy Needs
Rising Costs
Aging Society
Mobility
Globalisation
Intercultural
Skills
Security
S
eccurity
curiit
Technoloy
Data security
New Educational Requirements
New Competence Requirements
A Question of Ethics
Virtualisation
Data Protection
79
Summary
b
IN THE FUTURE
NATURAL INTERFACES
SUCH AS SPEECH AND
GESTURE RECOGNITION
WILL GAIN IN
IMPORTANCE.
cess logic will have to be compatible to allow
comfortable, intuitive use. Poor ergonomic
design could complicate or even prevent
interaction between people and machines.
Text-based interfaces used to be the norm;
now graphic user interfaces and touchscreens
have taken their place. In the future, more
natural interfaces such as speech and gesture
recognition will become important in transfer
of knowledge. With increasing data traffic in
the Internet and the growing importance of
cloud computing, the Internet of Things and
Services, social networks and mobile devices,
business activities in the meetings industry
will shift to a virtual level. This study indicates that security and data protection will
be seriously affected, and this will influence
usability and people’s reactions to it.
RR Information security, data
protection and the private sphere
will represent some of the most
important and complicated challenges for the industry, particularly
for event organisers.
Technological developments will also affect
mobility - arrival to and departure from
meeting and convention event locations plus
moving about while there. Technical and
organisational security measures have to be
developed and used to guarantee information security as far as possible.
RR In the future people will be able
to reach every place on earth more
quickly, safely and ecologically
responsibly through the use of multimodal transportation systems.
Ideally, the Internet of Things will bring
about a new relationship between private
and public transportation systems with an
almost complete information exchange between different transport carriers/systems
and the surrounding area. It will be important to have multimodal concepts where all
available offers mesh with each other.
RR The central task for all relevant
actors in the meetings industry
will be to inspire efforts for the
intelligent and target group/
customer design of events using
new technologies and innovative
formats the right way.
Knowledge of technological possibilities and
their correct use will be essential in the future. Even with all the necessary specialisation, people will need to acquire basic skills
and understand the interaction, the possibilities and limits as well as risks in using
technical devices, modules and programs.
RR Due to ongoing globalisation,
mastery of other languages – with
the support of technical devices
and applications – will become the
standard, along with the acquisition of intercultural knowledge and
competence.
This require sensitivity, the ability to reflect
and a level of emotional intelligence. For
the most part, competency and skills can be
developed in the usual learning contexts or
online. Direct acquisition and qualification
can best be achieved through travel or living
abroad.
RR The variety of technical options
RR Lifelong learning will play a
on one hand and diversification of
participants on the other will lead
to special challenges.
Megatrends don‘t have to do with definable
processes of change, but with processes in
An extreme example is the use of service
robots in event buildings, i.e., for cleaning, security or other routine work. Robots
could be used for assisting disabled
b
major role in the meetings industry;
education will be future-oriented.
80
societies that interact with each other. Due
to the acceleration of change, the fast pace
of life and sociological dynamics, there are
more and more challenges for people and
also for the meetings industry. As a result,
lifelong learning is particularly relevant for
this industry: Long-term, holistic thinking
has to be the imperative. The right decisions
and actions are becoming an absolute condition. In this context, the goal of education
and qualification must be to promote a
„future-oriented, self-reflecting approach“
(habitus).
Zusammenfassung
In this study, industry experts were asked how probable they considered the following thesis:
"The semantic web is accepted as an extension of the World Wide Web. Pure data is now information with
important content. Users receive useful, credible answers without having to evaluate search engine results
in advance."
c
When?
20.8%
8.3%
33%
21%
17%
29%
by 2024
by 2014
25%
12.5%
by 2019
high
middle
low
don't know/
not specified
by 2030
4.2%
after 2030
"Cloud computing has taken over everywhere as a flexible use of IT services. Most private and business data can
be found in the Internet data cloud. PCs no longer have physical hard drives. Laptops, smartphones and tablets
are the primary computer systems."
c
When?
16.7%
54%
8%
8%
29%
16.7%
by 2014
by2024
29.2%
high
middle
low
don't know/
not specified
by 2019
8.3%
after 2030
"The Internet of Things has taken over. Event locations are full of intelligent devices that communicate and are
linked with each other. They know what visitors want and where they should go next, offering the information
people need about their immediate surroundings."
c
When?
21%
29%
21%
29%
16.7%
by 2019
20.8%
high
middle
low
don't know/
not specified
by2024
12.5%
12
5%
by 2030
8.3%
after 2030
81
Summary
Best Practice: LINC
The future of conventions is already visible in the Leipzig Interventional Course
at the CCL Congress Center Leipzig.
b
The CCL recently hosted the Leipzig
Interventional Course (LINC) for the
fifth time. The LINC, one of the most
important conventions in the field of
minimally invasive vascular medicine,
is directed toward doctors with various
specialties from around the world.
Predictions that industry experts have
made about conventions of the future
have already become reality at the
LINC convention.
The layout of conventions will change
in order to optimally meet the need for
more flexibility and integration.
At LINC the structural boundaries blur
between lecture halls, exhibitions,
poster area, foyers and catering zones.
All event zones are within sight and
sound and create a complete unit. As
modern as this layout is, it does take
on one archaic (cultural) concept: the
idea of the marketplace.
Rigid space and time limits between
various parts of a convention will
increasingly dissolve.
Conventions are getting more integrative and communicative. The participants design their own „pick-and-mix“
package from parts of the program
that are most interesting and important to them, move around between
sessions, posters and exhibitions,
and use every opportunity to network
informally.
Sensory experiences will play a greater
role in future convention design.
Color, form, lighting - LINC‘s wellthought-out design and lighting concept goes far beyond mere decoration
and has obviously been influenced by
the wellness idea.
participants, including older people or
guests with limited mobility, who could
then move more easily in and around
convention buildings with the help of
specially modified robots.
RR Event complexes and
facilities will be subject to
increasing quality demands.
Modernisation will have a special role in
this area with new and higher standards, monitoring, public ranking and
82
ogy. Live worldwide coverage, X-ray
livestreams and explanatory charts
can all be projected on screens at the
same time. In addition, participants
can test CCL‘s technical capacity and
WLAN-infrastructure with their mobile terminals.
Technical requirements at conventions
will get more ambitious and complex:
The LINC places the highest demands
on network- and presentation technol-
government, association and customer
ratings. Competition will increase and
some market sectors will further globalise. Energy consumption, one of the
great cost factors, will have a decisive
role as prices continue to rise.
RR There will be important
consequences for the meetings
industry due to ongoing demographic change.
These need to be specifically assessed.
The increasing number of older people
coming to meetings and conventions
will be particularly important. Technical and organisational concepts already
exist or need to be developed. The
industry has to adjust to this change in
its own organisations and businesses,
with responses such as „age management“ and/or „diversity management.“
Attention must be given to workforce
and team composition, personnel support and qualification, and finding work
suitable to age, specific cultural skills or
other special needs.
Summary
"In choosing to have an event in Germany, which of the following criteria do you think will be more
important in 2030 than they are now? Which are becoming more important?"
58% 55% 50% 43% 42% 38% 32% 28% 25%
Transportation Links
Attractiveness
Value for money
Sustainability
Technology
Contact
Key Industries
Catering
Exhibition Areas
Source: Study “Meetings and Conventions 2030: A study of megatrends shaping our industry”
RR Another finding of the study:
The greatest number of respondents assumes that sustainability
will remain relevant, even crucial,
and that industry actors will have
to deal with it more intensively.
Participants expect that German suppliers
will continue to score with their sustainability expertise - especially as the ecological damage and negative impact from
Western and global production and way
of life become more evident, frequent and
violent. Offering of sustainable solutions
and practices can therefore be a genuine
advantage that sets suppliers apart from
others.
continues to rise, i.e., due to the effects of
climate change, this quality factor will pay
off for pioneers like Germany, as a reliable
image is something that has to be built
and maintained over years. As a result,
certifications and rankings will become
even more important in influencing the
success of destinations.
RR Sustainable development
will become an important quality
factor and criterion in choosing
convention and meeting locations. It will be a crucial advantage in the competition among
event centers and destinations.
Germany can already boast with this
advantage. As the focus on sustainability
83
Methods
Methods and Procedure
The study is based on literature and document evaluation, a brainstorming
workshop, interviews with experts and the three proven methods of scientific
future research: trend analyses, scenario development and roadmapping.
Select social models from contemporary social sciences provided the
theoretical basis for the trend analyses:
Multi-option Society (Peter Gross),
(Event) Society (Gerhard Schultze),
Risk Society (Ulrich Beck), Second
Modernity and Reflexive Modernisation
(Ulrich Beck, Anthony Giddens), Postgrowth Society (Angelika Zahrnt) and
Great Transformation (WBGU-German
Advisory Council on Global Change).
Important developments in modern societies were designated as megatrends:
globalisation and internationalisation, „peak everything,“ urbanisation,
demographic change, feminisation and
diversity, technology in work and life,
sustainable development, mobility of the
future, and security and safety.
The procedure can be understood as the
use of an expanding „range of possibilities“ for future developments („possible futures“). Feasible and plausible
future developments will no longer
be as extensive as conditions become
more restrictive. An additional reduction was possible when we focused on
probable futures, which are limited by
power structures, customs and technical
capacities. These analytical steps could
be rapidly dealt with in the study. In the
context of „Meetings and Conventions
2030,“ we decided on an even more
limited category - „preferable futures.“
These are the developments, activities
and effects that are particularly important for the German Convention Bureau,
its members and project partners and
should be used proactively. They were
examined and clarified by the Institute
for Future Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT) and during the scenario
workshop.
The Research Process
Interviews with Experts from
the meetings industry and
other industries
22 interviews were conducted with
industry experts as well as specialists
in the fields of knowledge transfer,
technologies and architecture. The 30
to 60 minute interviews took place from
January to May 2013. Together with
84
the IZT (Institute for Futures Studies
and Technology Assessment) team, we
made a selection that is included in the
appendix.
we conducted a survey using the Delphi
method. This took place online in two
sessions with 24 German and international
experts.
Delphi Method
Information: The Delphi method was
designed for strategic and military purposes in the USA in the 1940s by the RAND
Corporation, a think tank that advised the
US military.
To evaluate the most important technological developments and breakthroughs
for the meetings industry up until 2030,
Methods
The Research Process and the Instruments
Desktop Research
Megatrends and Trends
Interviews with Experts
Links between Trend and
Industry Development
Delphi with Experts
Technological Development: Event
Technology, Robotics, Web, Energy
Scenario-Workshop
Ideas and Visions for Architecture,
Technology, Knowledge Transfer
Online Survey
Validation of Various Apects
from the Industry Perspective
A group of experts receive a series of
questions to be answered anonymously.
In the second round, the participants
evaluate the questions and propositions
after receiving a summary of the results.
This gives them the opportunity to reflect
on their answers and assessments with
the help of the group results and to
change them if they want. The use of a
summary during the second round of the
study is basically an exchange of views.
All of the respondents‘ opinions are being
considered. Due to the anonymity of the
summary, participants can‘t be influenced
by other more dominant participants. Depending on its set-up, a Delphi study can
help determine the views of experts (i.e.,
the probability of a technical invention
and when it might come about), collect
topic ideas, choose selected issues or get
a consensus on certain subjects.
survey with select topics from the study.
The online survey was conducted in April
and May 2013.
Scenario workshop
On April 9, 2013, an all-day workshop was
hosted in Frankfurt with 20 participants
who openly discussed topics concerning
the future of the meetings industry as
well as possible scenarios.
Seen from our vantage point now, it looks
as if the range of possibilities is on the
increase. Scientific future research differentiates between (1) „possible,“ (2) „plausible,“ (3) „probable,“ and (4) „desirable
(preferable)“ futures. The opportunities
and risks are distributed differently, but
scenarios can definitely help in describing
future conditions.
Online Survey
77 people from the meetings industry
were invited to take part in an online
85
Appendix
Literature/Links
This section contains selected publications and resources that are important and
recommended for individual in-depth study of the relevant topics and methods.
A collection of links is included at www.gcb.de/en/future
Social Change
Beck, Ulrich/Bonß, Wolfgang
(Hrsg.) (2001): Die Modernisierung
der Moderne.
Suhrkamp, Frankfurt/Main
Diamond, Jared (2006): Kollaps.
Warum Gesellschaften überleben
oder untergehen.
Verlag S. Fischer, Frankfurt/Main
Giddens, Anthony (2009): Politics
of Climate Change.
University of Oxford Press, Oxford
IPCC – International Panel on
Climate Change (2011): IPCC
Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change
Mitigation.
Edenhofer, O. et al (eds), C
ambridge
University Press, Cambridge and
New York
Kanatschnig, Dietmar/Schmutz,
Petra (2004): Institutionelle Innovationsstrategien – 60 Ideen zur
Initiierung und Umsetzung eines
nachhaltigen Strukturwandels.
Österreichisches Institut für Nachhaltige Entwicklung
Kristof, Kora (2010): Models of
Change. Einführung und Verbreitung sozialer Innovationen und
gesellschaftlicher Veränderungen
in transdisziplinärer Perspektive.
Vdf Hochschulverlag, Zürich
Leggewie, Claus/Welzer, Harald
(2010): Das Ende der Welt, wie wir
sie kannten.
S. Fischer Verlag, Frankfurt/Main
Millennium Project (Hrsg.) (2013):
State of the Future
Jerome C. Glenn/Theodore J.
Gordon/Elizabeth Florescu; World
Federation of United Nations Associations. Washington, D.C.
86
Rosa, Hartmut (2012): Weltbeziehungen im Zeitalter der Beschleunigung. Umrisse einer neuen
Gesellschaftskritik.
Suhrkamp Verlag, Frankfurt/Main
Rosen, Richard A./Electris, Christi/Raskin, Paul D. (2010): Global
Scenarios for the Century Ahead:
Searching for Sustainability.
Tellus Institute, Boston/USA
Speth, James Gustave (2008): The
Bridge at the Edge of the World.
Capitalism, the Environment, and
Crossing From Crisis to Sustainability.
Yale University Press, New Haven
Globalisation
Beck, Ulrich (1997): Was ist Globalisierung?
Le Monde Diplomatique (Hrsg.)
(diverse Jahrgänge): Atlas der Globalisierung. Sehen und verstehen,
was die Welt bewegt.
taz Verlag, Berlin
Millennium Project (2012): State
of the Future Report 2012.
Washington, D.C.
Peak Everything
Gerstengarbe, Friedrich-Wilhelm/
Welzer, Harald (Hrsg.) (2013):
Zwei Grad mehr in Deutschland.
Wie der Klimawandel unseren
Alltag verändern wird.
Fischer, Frankfurt/Main
Randers, Jorgen (2012): 2052. Der
neue Bericht an den Club of Rome:
Eine globale Prognose für die
nächsten 40 Jahre.
Oekom Verlag, München
Wuppertal Institut für Klima,
Umwelt, Energie GmbH (2008):
Zukunftsfähiges Deutschland in
einer globalisierten Welt – ein
Anstoß zur gesellschaftlichen
Debatte (2. Auflage).
Brot für die Welt, Evangelischer
Entwicklungsdienst, BUND (Hrsg.).
Fischer Taschenbuch Verlag, Frankfurt/Main
Demographic Change
City of the Future
Feminisation and
Diversity
UN-Habitat (2006): Sustainable
Cities Programme 1990–2000 – A
Decade of United Nations Support
to Broad-based Participatory Management of Urban Development.
United Nations (Hrsg.) (2009):
World Urbanization Prospects. The
2009 Revision.
New York
Portal für europäische Nachrichten, Hintergründe und
Kommunikation - EurActiv.de YellowPaper „Stadt der Zukunft"
(2011): Analysen, Standpunkte
und Interviews zur europäischen
Stadtentwicklung.
EMM, Berlin
Acatech bezieht Position – Nr.
10 (2011): Smart Cities, Deutsche
Hochtechnologie für die Stadt der
Zukunft. Aufgaben und Chancen.
Springer Verlag, Berlin
Beuth Hochschule für Technik
Berlin (2012): Angewandte
Forschung zur Stadt der Zukunft.
Aktuelle Forschungsarbeiten
zu urbanen Technologien und
Infrastrukturen sowie urbanem
Leben
Logos Verlag, Berlin
Statistisches Bundesamt (2009):
Bevölkerung Deutschlands bis 2060 –
12. koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung.
Bertelsmann Stiftung (2011):
Deutschland im demografischen
Wandel 2030. Datenreport.
Beck, Ulrich/Beck-Gernsheim,
Elisabeth (Hrsg.) (1994): Riskante
Freiheiten. Individualisierung in
modernen Gesellschaften.
Jansen, Mechthild M. et al. (2003):
Gender Mainstreaming. Herausforderung für den Dialog der
Geschlechter.
Olzog Verlag, München
Rosa, Hartmut (2012): Weltbeziehungen im Zeitalter der Beschleunigung. Umrisse einer neuen
Gesellschaftskritik.
Technology in Work
and Life
Biesecker, Adelheid/Baier, Andrea
(2011): Gutes Leben braucht andere
Arbeit.
oekom e.V. – Verein für ökologische
Kommunikation (Hrsg.): Anders arbeiten, München
Friedewald, Michael et al. (2010):
Ubiquitäres Computing. TAB-Studie
Nr. 31.
2010, Berlin
Hilty, Lorenz/Oertel, Britta/
Wölk, Michaela/Pärli, Kurt (2012):
Lokalisiert und identifiziert : Wie
Ortungstechnologien unser Leben
verändern.
TA-Swiss. vdf Hochschulverlag, Zürich
Appendix
Spath, Dieter (Hrsg.) (2012):
Arbeitswelten 4.0. Wie wir morgen
arbeiten und leben.
Fraunhofer IAO
VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik
GmbH (Hrsg.) (2012): ips - innovation positioning system. Schwerpunktthema: Mensch-TechnikInteraktion. Februar 2012
Sustainable
Development
Grober, Ulrich (2010): Die Entdeckung der Nachhaltigkeit. Kulturgeschichte eines Begriffs.
Verlag Antje Kunstmann, München
Haderlapp, Thomas/Trattnigg,
Rita (2913): Zukunftsfähigkeit ist
eine Frage der Kultur. Hemmnisse,
Widersprüche und Gelingensfaktoren des kulturellen Wandels.
ökom Verlag, München
UNEP – United Nations Environment Programme (2012): Sustainable Events Guide. Give your large
event a small footprint. Nairobi/
Kenia
Welzer, Harald/Wiegandt, Klaus
(Hrsg.) (2011): Perspektiven einer
nachhaltigen Entwicklung: Wie
sieht die Welt im Jahr 2050 aus?
S. Fischer Verlag, Frankfurt/Main
Wissenschaftlicher Beirat
der Bundesregierung Globale
Umweltveränderungen – WBGU
(2011): Welt im Wandel. Gesellschaftsvertrag für eine Große
Transformation. Zusammenfassung für Entscheidungsträger.
WBGU, Berlin
World Business Council for Sustainable Development – WBCSD
(2010): Vision 2050. Exploring the
Role of Business through Vision
2050
Mobility
Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development
(OECD) (2006): Infrastructure to
2030 – Telecom, Land Transport,
Water and Electricity.
OECD Publishing, Paris.
Allgemeiner Deutscher Automobil-Club e. V. (ADAC) (2011):
Verkehr von morgen. Szenarien
und Visionen: Multimobil – auch
ohne eigenes Auto: Wie geht das?
Auto der Zukunft: Wie sieht es
aus? Information und Kommunikation: Was ist möglich?
Verbraucherzentrale Bundesverband e. V. (Hrsg.) (2012): Mobilität
der Zukunft aus Verbrauchersicht. Nachhaltig, vernetzt und
bezahlbar.
Institut für Zukunftsforschung
und Wissensmanagement
(IFK)/Automotive Institute for
Management (AIM) (2012): Das
Zukunftsbarometer zur Mobilität
der Zukunft.
Scientific Futures
Studies
Hölscher, Lucian (1999): Die Entdeckung der Zukunft.
Fischer Taschenbuch-Verlag,
Frankfurt am Main
Kreibich, Rolf (2008): Zukunftsforschung für die gesellschaftliche
Praxis.
IZT-WerkstattBericht Nr. 29/2008.
Berlin
Popp, Reinhold/Schüll, Elmar
(Hrsg.) (2009): Zukunftsforschung
und Zukunftsgestaltung. Beiträge
aus Wissenschaft und Praxis.
Springer-Verlag, Berlin und Heidelberg
Rust, Holger (2008): Zukunftsillusionen. Kritik der Trendforschung.
VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften,
Wiesbaden
Cuhls, Kerstin (1998): Technikvorausschau in Japan. Ein
Rückblick auf 30 Jahre DelphiExpertenbefragungen.
Physica Verlag, Heidelberg (Dissertation)
Wildcards
Petersen, John L.; Steinmüller,
Karlheinz (2009): Wild Cards.
The Millennium Project (Hrsg.):
Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0, Washington, CD-ROM.
Steinmüller, Karlheinz (2012):
Wild Cards, Schwache Signale und
Web-Seismografen. Vom Umgang
der Zukunftsforschung mit dem
Unvorhersagbaren.
Focus-Jahrbuch 2012.
Megatrends
Safety
Naisbitt, John (1984): Megatrends:
Ten new directions transforming
our lives.
Warner Books, New York
Dyer, Gwynne (2010): Climate
Wars. The fight for survival as the
world overheats.
Oneworld Publications, Oxford/
England
Popp, Reinhold (Hrsg.) (2012):
Zukunft & Wissenschaft. Zukunftsforschung auf dem Prüfstand.
Springer-Verlag, Berlin und Heidelberg
IPCC – International Panel on Climate Change (2011): IPCC Report.
New York City
Scenarios
TAB – Büro für TechnikfolgenAbschätzung beim Deutschen
Bundestag (2010): Gefährdung
und Verletzbarkeit moderner
Gesellschaften – am Beispiel
eines großräumigen Ausfalls der
Stromversorgung (Arbeitsbericht
Nr. 141).
Berlin
Delphi Method
European Foresight Monitoring
Network (EFMN)
Kosow, Hannah; Gaßner, Robert
(2008): Methods of Future and
Scenario Analysis. Overview, Assessment, and Selection Criteria.
Studies no 39.
Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik, Bonn
87
Appendix
Participants in the futures study
Attendees of the GCB-IZT
Scenario Workshop,
9 April 2013, InterContinental
Hotel Frankfurt/Main
1. Thomas Berghausen | meta-fusion,
General Manager
2. Claudia Brückner | NewThinking
3. Birgit Gebhardt | Alexander von Humboldt
Institute for Internet and Society (HIIG),
Associated Researcher
4. Marcus Gloria | Cooltour Bochum,
Owner / General Manager
5. Dr. Helga Jonuschat | Innovation Centre for
Mobilty and Social Change (InnoZ) GmbH
6. Alexander Kramer | Deutsche Werbewelt
7. Matthias Kuom | DLR – German Aerospace
Center (DLR), Research Coordinator
Participants in the expert interviews
1. Zahar Barth-Manzoori | German Acadamic Exchange Service
(DAAD), Head of the Department for Events and Visitors
Programmes
2. Alexandra Biebel | Alcatel-Lucent Enterprise, , Marketing /
Advertisement / PR, Workgroup Leader Trade Fairs & Events
BITKOM
3. Klaus Brähmig | German Bundestag, Chairman of the
Committee for Tourism
4. Guido Brombach | German Trade Union Confederation (DGB),
Technologies of the Future
5. Welf Ebeling | GBTA – Global Business Travel Association,
Regional Director for Asia-Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand
6. Christian Helfrich | David Chipperfield Architects
7. Jeannie Lim | Singapore Tourism Board, Executive Director
Conventions & Meetings, Convention Centers
8. Christian Luft | Drees + Sommer | International Trainer of
Auditors
9. Heike Mahmoud | visitBerlin Berlin Convention Office,
Director Conventions
8. Olaf Pfeifer | Architect
10. Kristin K. Mirabal | The Optical Society, Washington, DC | USA
CMP, Director, Global Programs
9. Professor Dr. Günter Pfeifer | TU Darmstadt
11. D
r. Peter Neven | Association of the German Trade Fair Industry
(AUMA), General Manager
10. Professor Dr.-Ing. Daniel Schilberg | RWTH
Aachen
11. Jürgen Schultheis | House of Logistics
and Mobility, Senior Manager PR &
Communication
12. Kay Constanze Strobl | Deloitte & Touche
GmbH, Manager
13. Professor Dr. Ulrich Wünsch | hdpk
School of Popular Arts, Berlin
14. Colleagues from IZT
Representatives of the Study Partners
Colleagues from GCB
12. Professor Dr. Reinhold Popp | University of Applied Science,
Centre for Futures Studies Salzburg
13. Dr. Ulrike Regele | The Association of German Chambers
of Commerce and Industry (Deutscher Industrie- und
Handelskammertag, DIHK e.V.) Head of the Department for
Trade and Tourism
14. Prof. Dr. Ulrich Reinhard | Foundation for Future Studies,
Hamburg, Scientific Director
15. Stefan Rief | Fraunhofer IAO, Head of Competence Center
Workspace Innovation
16. Astrid Messmer-Rodriguez | Deutsche Lufthansa AG,
Group Strategy
17. Andreas Schele | Drees & Sommer AG, Senior Project Partner
18. Dr. Jo Sollich | Sollich Architekten, Berlin
19. Kay Constanze Strobl | Deloitte & Touche GmbH, Manager
20.Dr. Stefan Walter | House of Logistics and Mobility,
General Manager
21. Dr. Marion Weber | Federal Ministery of Economic Affairs and
Energy, Head of the Department for Tourism Politics
22.Martin Zeumer | ee concept gmbh, Proxy Holder
88
Appendix
Participants in the Delphi survey
1.
Corbin Ball | Corbin Ball Associates
2.
Thomas Berghausen | Metafusion, General Manager
3.
Claudia Brückner | NewThinking
4.
Klara von Carlsburg | Foundation for Future Studies
5.
Dr. Michael Geisser | Ubivent General Manager
6.
Professor Dr. Sabina Jeschke | RWTH Aachen
7.
Dr. Helga Jonuschat | Innovation Centre for Mobilty and Social Change, Dr. phil./Dipl.-Ing.
Architecture / Urban Planning
8.
Matthias Kuom | German Aerospace Center (DLR), Research Coordinator
9.
Kwa Chin Lum | Centre for Strategic Studies, Deputy Director, Strategic Policy Office/Head
10. Johannes Mahn | Z_punkt GmbH, Foresight Consultant
11. Kristin K. Mirabal | The Optical Society, Washington, DC | USA CMP, Director, Global Programs
12. Heike Niemeier | Project Management Berlin
13. Professor Dr. Günter Pfeifer | TU Darmstadt
14. Olaf Pfeifer | Architect
15. Dennis Presche | Deutsche Werbewelt, Head of Media Technology
16. Dr. Asarnusch Rashid | FZI Research Center for Information Technology, Karlsruhe, Head of
Department
17. Stefan Rief | Fraunhofer IAO, Head of Competence Center Workspace Innovation Fraunhofer IAO
18. Mandy Scheermesser | Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Research Associate at the
Department of Health, Institute for Physiotherapy
19. Professor Dr.-Ing. Daniel Schilberg | RWTH Aachen
20. Dr. Hendrik Send | Alexander von Humboldt Institute for Internet and Society (HIIG),
Project Manager: Web-based Innovation
21. Dr. Jo Sollich | Sollich Architekten
22. Karen Sternsdorff | German Sustainable Building Council (DGNB – Deutsche Gesellschaft für
Nachhaltiges Bauen e.V.), Team Leader, System Development
23. Jan Zak | ikl consulting engineers Prof. Dr.-Ing. Kunibert Lennerts GmbH, Head of the Department
for Sustainability and Certification
24. Erik Zürn | Research Centre (Forschungszentrum) Jülich
89
Appendix
Glossary
Age Diversity Management
Age Diversity Management can be taken
as an internationally used global term
referring to policies, strategies and
instruments for the implementation of
age diversity. Age diversity includes both
the older generation and the offspring as
well as working together in a company.
The basic idea is to bundle the various
qualities, knowledge, and experiences of
different generations and to employ it to
the benefit of the work results.
Actuators
Actuators transduce electric current or
voltage into another energy form such as
sound, pressure, temperature, motion,
torque, light, etc. The various methods
to transduce electric into non-electric
energy applied within actuators — electromagnetic, inductive, piezoelectric, optoelectric, magnetostrictive, electrostatic,
electrochemical — decide on the amount
of the transducible energy through their
degree of efficiency.
Ageing of the population
The ageing of the population is a characteristic of demographic change. On the
one hand, the absolute age of the population is rising due to mankind’s constantly
increased life expectancy. On the other
hand, the age structure is changing —
worldwide, in various ways and depending
on the birth rates. Globally, the number of
persons older than 60 years is expected
to almost treble from 739 million to 2,000
million by 2050. In the industrialised
countries, the portion of over-60-yearolds is expected to grow faster than ever
before. In the year 2050, about one third
of the population is expected to be older
than 60 years in these countries.
organisation. A BarCamp consists of
lectures, speeches and sessions coordinated by the participants themselves on
whiteboards, meta-plans or pin boards at
the beginning of the meeting.
Cloud Computing
Cloud Computing means dynamical ondemand provision, use and payment of
IT services via a network. Supply and use
of these services are exclusively carried out via defined technical interfaces
and protocols. The scope of the services
offered in the context of Cloud Computing comprises the complete range of
information technology, including, among
other things, infrastructure (computing
power, storage, for example), platforms,
and software.
Corporate Citizenship
Corporate Citizenship means the active
citizenship within and by companies
pursuing a medium- and long-term entrepreneurial strategy based on responsible
acting and involving active work as "good
citizens" for the local civil society or ecological or cultural matters, for example,
beyond their actual business. The English
terminology indicates that it originally
was the adoption of a management idea
as part of a public affairs strategy from
the U.S.
Corporate Social Responsibility
(CSR)
Corporate Social Responsibility gains
in importance as part of the strategic
management of companies. Mainly for
global value chains, there is a growing
requirement to implement environmental
and social standards in order to secure
long-term supply of sustainably produced
products.
BarCamps
A BarCamp is an open meeting (non-convention) where agenda and contents are
developed by the participants themselves
during the course of the meeting. The
course of BarCamps resembles the open
space method, but is of a more flexible
90
born after 1990. The contrary of a "digital
native" is a "digital immigrant", that is a
person who has become acquainted with
the new technologies only after growing
up and is coping with them on a step-bystep basis only.
Digital Natives
The term "digital natives" traces back to
Marc Prensky."Digital natives" are persons
who have grown up with the Internet and
mobile phones and have no knowledge of
the analogous era, that is the generation
Eco-City
According to a simple definition, eco-cities
are "ecologically healthy cities". More
detailed, this term means communities
and cities that have committed to the
principles of ecological and sustainable
management and show the smallest
possible ecological footprint. Examples
for these ecological principles include the
ability to generate electric energy from
renewable energies, heat generation without combustion processes, energy-sparing
construction (passive house, low-energy
house), and emission-free traffic within
towns as well as facilities and workplaces
that are as low in emissions as possible.
Water production from rain water, water
recycling and separate water circuits for
drinking and service water have to be
mentioned as well. Furthermore, waste
avoidance and recycling have to be practised.
Gadgets
Gadgets are small technical appliances
or programmes having a rather low user
value (also called "gimmicks" or "gizmos").
Examples for gadgets are solar-powered
pencil sharpeners, coffee cup heaters with
USB connection or the constant display
of the weather in a small window on the
workstation PC.
Greenwashing
Greenwashing is a critical term for PR
methods aiming at giving a company an
eco-friendly and responsible image in
public without there being a sufficient
basis. The term hints at the colour "green"
as a symbol of nature and environmental
protection and "washing" in the sense
of money laundering or whitewashing.
The term originally referred to an alleged
eco-friendliness, but has also been used
Appendix
for alleged corporate responsibility in the
meantime.
Head-up Display
HUD stands for head-up display. It means
a display area in the line of sight (sight
display). The HUD is a display system
where information relevant to the user
(pilots, car drivers, etc.) is projected into
the main line of sight so that the head
position and viewing direction have to
be altered only barely to perceive the
information.
Holodeck
The term "holodeck" from the sciencefiction series "Star Treck" designates
a facility where the visitors can enter
a computer-generated world. In this
space, virtual worlds hardly distinguishable from reality are created by means
of holographic methods. Unlike already
existing systems of virtual reality, the
projected environments, objects and
persons can be perceived not only visually and acoustically, but also in a haptic
manner, so that the user experiences a
feeling of total immersion.
"use" the Internet to interconnect and
to exchange information. Furthermore,
innovative, combined services offered
via the Internet will be created. The
Internet of Things and Services is one
of the key issues for the future and an
effective global trend.
ICT technologies
Information and communication technology (ICT technology) can be used for
three kinds of applications: 1. transmission of information through space
(communication), 2. transmission of
information through time (storage), and
3. regulated transformation of information within space and time using an
algorithm.
Megacities
The term "intermodality" originates from
the area of goods transport and has been
used in the U.S.A. for the novel handling
of goods in standardised containers between railway, lorries and ships since the
1960ies. Basically, intermodality is always
given, when more than one means of
transportation is used to transport goods
and people, and when a change between
these means of transportation occurs.
Worldwide, more and more megacities
have been emerging (cities with more
than ten million inhabitants). In 2015,
their number is expected to grow to 26,
22 of which are located in emerging and
developing countries. In addition, there
is a great number of other large cities
and cities with over one million inhabitants. By 2030, cities are expected to
cover an area which is almost three
times as large as their area today. By
2025, the number of buildings in the
cities is expected to almost double. In
all agglomerations of the world, serious
problems arise from housing shortage,
environmental stress, difficulties in
drinking water supply and waste disposal as well as from the tremendously
high traffic density and the resulting air
pollution.
Internet of Things and Service
Man-Machine Interface
This trend means the interconnection of
objects by means of the Internet in order
to allow these objects to autonomously
communicate via the Internet and to fulfil
various tasks for their owner. The area of
application stretches from general supply
of information via automatic ordering up
to warning and emergency functions. In
the future, more and more objects will
This term means a juncture between
two mutually interconnected systems.
To allow functioning communication between the two systems, the
interface has to be standardised as a
rule. Two types have been adopted:
The man-machine interface and the
machine-machine interface. The former
serves the dialogue between user and
Intermodality
machine: in general, a software is interposed between man and machine, making
understanding possible. It includes control elements such as keyboard, mouse,
screen, etc., as well as software elements
such as menus, dialogue boxes and
windows. The machine-machine interface
(also called "port") is an interface between
two devices or two software objects, such
as two application programmes, but also
between software and hardware.
Multibiometric systems
Multibiometric systems consist of several
biometric subsystems for various modalities (fingerprint and iris, for example) that
complement one another. The mutual
influencing of the systems refers to recognition exactness, security and variability. In literature, such a system based on
the features of face, fingerprint and hand
geometry has been described in A.K. Jain,
A. Ross: Multibiometric Systems, Communications of the ACM; January 2004,
Vol. 47, No. 1.
OLED
The Organic Light-Emitting Diode (OLED)
is a further development of the lightemitting diode (LED) for display technology. In contrast to LEDs, the coloured
self-luminous OLEDs consist of organic
semiconductors emitting light within an
electric field. OLEDs are characterised by
high light density and good contrast, they
are self-luminous, flexible, extremely flat
and have a high resolution. The innovation in this technology is that this module
no longer primarily is aimed at illumination but is ideally suited to manufacture
screens. These screens are extremely flat
and can be operated in any size at any
place.
Open-space conventions
Open space is a method of large group
moderation for structuring conventions.
It is suitable for groups from about 50
to 2,000 participants. The openness in
terms of contents and form is typical:
with open space, only a general topic is
91
Appendix
specified to the participants. Neither
an agenda nor lecturers or moderators are pre-determined. The individual
subtopics are autonomously named by
the participants in the initial phase. The
workgroups assigned to the subtopics
have to meet requirements in terms of
time only — and not of contents. The
participants are free in attending the
sessions.
cal shortage of rare metals could result
from the dynamic growth of important
future technologies (such as electromobility, renewable energies). The following are key strategies to respond to the
challenges: Procure and use resources
in an intelligent and efficient way, substitute scarce raw materials and recover
recyclable fractions.
RFID
Peak Everything
Term derived from "peak oil". The term
"peak oil" or "Hubbert peak" means a
point in time when a global oil production maximum has been reached, the
production decreasing on a global scale
afterwards.
"Peak everything" means the fact that,
at some point in time, not only the oil
reserves but almost all natural resources cannot be produced any more in the
quantities that would be required by our
modern society.
QR code
QR codes are 2D codes that can be
scanned and read by mobile phones,
Smartphones and tablets, and where
web addresses, phone numbers, SMS
and free text can be included. They
connect the physical and virtual worlds
and play, among other things, a part in
publications and marketing.
Resource Efficiency
Mainly due to partly enormous price
increases and volatilities in the raw material markets, resource efficiency has
become more and more crucial for the
world’s economy during the last years.
This is also reflected in the intensive debate on effective politics regarding the
use of resources (Federal Government,
Federal Environment Ministry, Federal
Ministry of Economics, European Commission, etc.). Challenges for the security of supply add to it as well and let new
questions arise in terms of competitive
strategy. Thus it is expected that a criti-
92
RFID means methods to automatically
identify objects by radio-frequency. RFID
systems can adequately be used in all
applications where automatic labelling, identification, registering, storing,
monitoring or transporting is required.
RFID systems are offered in various
versions. Despite of the large range
of RFID solutions, any RFID system is
defined by the following three characteristics: 1. electronic identification (the
system allows a unique identification of
objects by means of electronically stored
data), 2. contactless data transfer (to
identify the object, the data can be read
wirelessly via a radio-frequency channel), and 3. transmission on demand
(a labelled object will send its data only
if a designated reader requests this
procedure).
Sensor
A sensor is an optical / mechanical / chemical / electronic component
that transforms a measured physical
quantity or a chemical effect into an
analogous electrical signal. Physical
quantities can be, among other things,
pressure, weight, acceleration, light intensity, temperature, radiation, sound,
magnetic flow, rotational speed. The
sensor records these physical quantities
and converts them using inductive, capacitive, piezoelectric, magnetic, fieldintensity-controlled, radioactive, load
or photo-electric converters into electric
voltage that is put into a consistent
relation to the input quantity. A sensor
thus scales the signals to make them
readable for further processing.
Sick-Building-Syndrom (SBS)
The term is used to describe a situation
where people living in a building show
symptoms of diseases that seem to
be connected to a too long stay in the
building, while no specific causes can
be identified, however. Moreover, the
WHO distinguishes two types of SBS:
"temporary SBS" describes complaints
that occur shortly after moving into the
building, and "persistent SBS" describes
complaints that persist after moving in.
Causes could be contaminants within
the indoor air. These include, for example, poisonous evaporations, so-called
volatile organic compounds, released by
certain sources such as newly installed
materials like floor and carpet adhesives, toxic substances from furniture
(varnishes, paints and coatings) as well
as minerals from insulating materials,
pest control substances and cleaners.
Urbanisation
Urbanisation means the spreading of
urban lifestyles into rural areas. This
process has been observed for centuries already, but it has reached a so far
unprecedented extent particularly in
the emerging and developing countries
during the last decades. That trend will
continue. For the year 2030, it is expected that over two third of the world
population will live in cities.
Virtual collaboration
The importance of successful virtual
collaboration continues to rise in the
course of globalisation and the increase
of value-adding partners. Growing
mobility of employees and partners is
a reason for many companies to use
cloud-based technologies.
Change in the raw materials base
Crude oil is becoming scarce. The OPEC
(Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries) will no longer be able to satisfy the demand in a few years’ time.
Coal and unconventional oil deposits
(such as tarry sands, "shale gas") offer
Appendix
fossil fuels for medium-term consumption. In the long term, however, this will
not change much regarding the global
shortage. Renewable resources are gaining in importance.
93
Imprint
This study was created by:
IZT - Institute for Futures Studies
and Technology Assessment
Schopenhauerstr. 26
14129 Berlin
Germany
Main Editors:
Dr. Edgar Göll
Michaela Evers-Wölk
Initiator / Publisher:
GCB German Convention Bureau
Kaiserstraße 53
60329 Frankfurt/Main
Germany
www.germany-meetings.com
Editorial Work, Layout and Production:
blaueQuelle Kommunikationsgesellschaft mbH
Wilhelm-Weber-Str. 39
37073 Göttingen
Germany
Picture Reference:
fotolia.com: p. 25, p. 29, p. 51, p. 55, p. 56, p. 62,
p. 68
istockphoto.com: p. 78–79
Print: Grafische Werkstatt 1980, Kassel
Germany
© 2014 GCB
94
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protected by copyright laws. Any use
of the texts and pictures outside the
narrow limits of the copyright law
is prohibited without prior approval
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translations, microfiching, and the
storage and processing in electronic
systems. Prognoses and any forwardlooking statements are subject to
significant uncertainties. The GCB
assumes no responsibility for the
correctness and completeness of the
information concerning the future.
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Meetings and conventions 2030: A study of megatrends

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